I have no problem with the PM getting special treatment . My issue is with the press coverage and the almost hero status he’s being rewarded with for recovering .
A lot of people recover , they’re not hero’s they just recovered ! And his calling out two foreign nurses when his rancid government and its anti immigrant stance especially during Brexit has led to immigrants being vilified .
I’m glad he’s recovered but that’s it . No amount of him playing the martyr or sudden caring for the NHS and it’s many foreign workers will remove the stench of hate he’s peddled for years !
Hate is not confined to accusations about the conservative party and the problem you seem to overlook is that Boris will now be the number one supporter for the NHS and immigration as necessary from across the globe, not just the EU
Amazing, BJ now the high priest and reborn messiah of the new state religion. I'd hope those habitual whiners about NHS religiosity would have some problems over this but experience tells me they'll be reverse ferreting like good 'uns.
Not acknowledging care home deaths in the numbers is just awful. These are also Mothers, Fathers and Grandparents, just as those dying in hospitals are. The government run the risk of being accused of downplaying numbers by doing so as well as denying people the dignity of being the equal of anyone else dying with this virus.
The question is for comparison purposes, are the stats from across the world the same base and exclude care homes
I seem to recall one of the Government's advisers suggesting in a press conference a couple of days ago that the hospital-only stats are best used for international comparison, because they are most similar to the numbers published by other countries. But I may have misremembered that.
I have no problem with the PM getting special treatment . My issue is with the press coverage and the almost hero status he’s being afforded with for recovering .
A lot of people recover , they’re not hero’s they just recovered ! And his calling out two foreign nurses when his rancid government and its anti immigrant stance especially during Brexit has led to immigrants being vilified .
I’m glad he’s recovered but that’s it . No amount of him playing the martyr or sudden caring for the NHS and its many foreign workers will remove the stench of hate he’s peddled for years !
Wasn't Boris one of the politicians first calling for EU citizens to immediately get the right to stay unilaterally? I would prefer open borders but there is an issue between wanting less immigration and being anti-immigrant.
Not acknowledging care home deaths in the numbers is just awful. These are also Mothers, Fathers and Grandparents, just as those dying in hospitals are. The government run the risk of being accused of downplaying numbers by doing so as well as denying people the dignity of being the equal of anyone else dying with this virus.
The question is for comparison purposes, are the stats from across the world the same base and exclude care homes
I seem to recall one of the Government's advisers suggesting in a press conference a couple of days ago that the hospital-only stats are best used for international comparison, because they are most similar to the numbers published by other countries. But I may have misremembered that.
It's like with constant complaints about having students in the immigration figures. The reason they are in them is because it is the international standard.
Not acknowledging care home deaths in the numbers is just awful. These are also Mothers, Fathers and Grandparents, just as those dying in hospitals are. The government run the risk of being accused of downplaying numbers by doing so as well as denying people the dignity of being the equal of anyone else dying with this virus.
The question is for comparison purposes, are the stats from across the world the same base and exclude care homes
I seem to recall one of the Government's advisers suggesting in a press conference a couple of days ago that the hospital-only stats are best used for international comparison, because they are most similar to the numbers published by other countries. But I may have misremembered that.
It's like with constant complaints about having students in the immigration figures. The reason they are in them is because it is the international standard.
An other reason is that the numbers for deaths outside hospital are slower to arrive - the ONS collects them up over at least a week. Often longer.
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
I have no problem with the PM getting special treatment . My issue is with the press coverage and the almost hero status he’s being rewarded with for recovering .
A lot of people recover , they’re not hero’s they just recovered ! And his calling out two foreign nurses when his rancid government and its anti immigrant stance especially during Brexit has led to immigrants being vilified .
I’m glad he’s recovered but that’s it . No amount of him playing the martyr or sudden caring for the NHS and it’s many foreign workers will remove the stench of hate he’s peddled for years !
Hate is not confined to accusations about the conservative party and the problem you seem to overlook is that Boris will now be the number one supporter for the NHS and immigration as necessary from across the globe, not just the EU
It should be noted that the NHS workers born in Asia and Africa were viewed by some Remainers as less deserving of being in this country than these:
Police say they are facing "challenges in communicating the significance of the current situation" with non-English speaking groups over social distancing.
Interpreters have been used in Sheffield's Page Hall area to engage the Slovakian community about Covid-19.
South Yorkshire Police has reassured critics after pictures on social media showed groups in the streets.
Page Hall is home to a large Slovakian Roma community and South Yorkshire Police acknowledged that a significant amount of people living in the area do not speak English as their first language.
Not acknowledging care home deaths in the numbers is just awful. These are also Mothers, Fathers and Grandparents, just as those dying in hospitals are. The government run the risk of being accused of downplaying numbers by doing so as well as denying people the dignity of being the equal of anyone else dying with this virus.
The question is for comparison purposes, are the stats from across the world the same base and exclude care homes
I seem to recall one of the Government's advisers suggesting in a press conference a couple of days ago that the hospital-only stats are best used for international comparison, because they are most similar to the numbers published by other countries. But I may have misremembered that.
France, Belgium, maybe others have started to include care homes figures after pressure. I know that the US and the UK aren’t, Germany as well, I think. There have been some horrible numbers out of Madrid, which I’m not sure that Spain has included. Put simply, some governments are trying to get away with not making them official, as they know how terrible the figures are. This idea that nobody is including them is rubbish, Should it be a scandal now or in the future? I would hope for openness and now,
Officially we have had 10612 deaths. The number is actually far higher; patients dying in the community or in care homes are not being counted, and in some parts of the country coroners are refusing to accept MCCDs (Medical certificates of cause of death) signed by GPs if they give Covid 19 as either the cause of death or a contributory factor. Hospital cases aren't counted if the tests are negative (as they are in about 30% of clinical typical cases). And of patients already in hospital, 50% of those on ventilators will, sadly die. It will be amazing if we have less than 50,000 deaths, ad that excludes the patients with other diseases who won't be sent into hospital in present circumstances (e.g coronaries, strokes, etc) Meanwhile little progress on getting 100,000 tests per day, PPE in short supply. This has been catastrophic mismanagement
That's a pretty extraordinary allegation. Indeed, I don't think coroners even have the ability to refuse to accept an MCCD - all they can do is order an autopsy if they are unsure.
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments? Are they different from this afternoon's?
Lots of people seem keen to announce the scores before it's even half-time... It is going to be a long time before we really know who did well and who did badly. The raw statistics are never going to be fully comparable even after the statisticians have done their totting up and standardising, what with different countries having different age structures, urban/rural splits, interconnectivity, household sizes etc.
And even then that only tells us how well the decisions worked out in retrospect, but what the best decisions were with the information available at the time is going to be a subject of argument for generations to come. As a simple example, eggheads have long been split about the effectiveness - or counterproductiveness - of shutting schools during a pandemic, whether a football stadium is more or less risky than a pub etc. Who knows whether decisions on those matters were made for the right reasons - could well be political expendiency or need to be seen to be "doing something" or alternatively the need not to be seen to panic drove decisions in many coubtries, and in some cases I'm sure politicians chose what turned out to be right decision for all the wrong reasons.
Given what's happened in Singapore, I wouldn't want to be bigging up other countries for successfully stopping the epidemic in its tracks. Not yet. You've got to find a sustainable way to stop it forever if that's your game, and given where we stand with time to a vaccine and the accumulating damage to the economy, that's a long old game.
Well said. And on top of all the logical reasons you have given why different countries will have different results, there is also luck. In the early days the return of one infected passenger from Asia could have led to ten infected on the flight back, who might have gone on to infect 50, who then infected 200 and so on quite quickly. Or that one passenger might have got upgraded to business class, so only infected the person closest to them. Those random differences will have made a difference but no one will care.
With numbers, people love to attach stories to them. The stories are generally based on their preconceived world view more than logic and rational detailed analysis.
We can never know for sure which countries policies were best in this crisis - the best results dont automatically equate to the best policies. It is very counter intuitive and most people will prefer to stick with their beliefs ahead of rational analysis.
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments? Are they different from this afternoon's?
No but only now featuring on the media news programmes
Not acknowledging care home deaths in the numbers is just awful. These are also Mothers, Fathers and Grandparents, just as those dying in hospitals are. The government run the risk of being accused of downplaying numbers by doing so as well as denying people the dignity of being the equal of anyone else dying with this virus.
The question is for comparison purposes, are the stats from across the world the same base and exclude care homes
I seem to recall one of the Government's advisers suggesting in a press conference a couple of days ago that the hospital-only stats are best used for international comparison, because they are most similar to the numbers published by other countries. But I may have misremembered that.
France, Belgium, maybe others have started to include care homes figures after pressure. I know that the US and the UK aren’t, Germany as well, I think. There have been some horrible numbers out of Madrid, which I’m not sure that Spain has included. Put simply, some governments are trying to get away with not making them official, as they know how terrible the figures are. This idea that nobody is including them is rubbish, Should it be a scandal now or in the future? I would hope for openness and now,
They’re not counted in Spain. And it’s not just Madrid. Care homes are a regional government responsibility, as was primary healthcare before the crisis.
Imagine the government had pursued the ‘herd immunity’ strategy, and the result to date was 10,612 deaths. How many do you think people would say would have been saved by a lockdown?
Pretty much all of them because people are crap at numbers, and particularly crap at exponential trends with lag times. But the UK numbers should stabilise soon, which will make the difference between >100,000 deaths and well under that number.
Officially we have had 10612 deaths. The number is actually far higher; patients dying in the community or in care homes are not being counted, and in some parts of the country coroners are refusing to accept MCCDs (Medical certificates of cause of death) signed by GPs if they give Covid 19 as either the cause of death or a contributory factor. Hospital cases aren't counted if the tests are negative (as they are in about 30% of clinical typical cases). And of patients already in hospital, 50% of those on ventilators will, sadly die. It will be amazing if we have less than 50,000 deaths, ad that excludes the patients with other diseases who won't be sent into hospital in present circumstances (e.g coronaries, strokes, etc) Meanwhile little progress on getting 100,000 tests per day, PPE in short supply. This has been catastrophic mismanagement
That's a pretty extraordinary allegation. Indeed, I don't think coroners even have the ability to refuse to accept an MCCD - all they can do is order an autopsy if they are unsure.
Weekly deaths in the UK this year have had a high of 14,058 (w/e 10 Jan), and a low of 10,645 (20 Mar).
If CV-19 was causing massive excess morbidity, we'd see it here.
If we are to get 50,000 excess deaths from CV-19 this cycle, then you'd expect weekly deaths to be peak at perhaps 25,000. (I.e about 13,000 excess deaths caused by CV-19 at peak.)
There's a whole chapter just simply entitled "Chris Williamson".
I imagine that odious man will see it as a badge of pride. A man restored to his seat in the Corbyn recovery of 2017 either much changed, or unshorn of any previous political nuance or nous.
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments? Are they different from this afternoon's?
No but only now featuring on the media news programmes
I saw it this afternoon and I wish him well.
I did not extrapolate from his statement much more than his gratitude to those individuals and the institution that saved his bacon.
I have enjoyed watching PB Tories getting over excited this afternoon as to what Boris' much welcomed Easter Sunday recovery means in the grand scheme of things.
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments? Are they different from this afternoon's?
No but only now featuring on the media news programmes
I saw it this afternoon and I wish him well.
I did not extrapolate from his statement much more than his gratitude to those individuals and the institution that saved his bacon.
I have enjoyed watching PB Tories getting over excited this afternoon as to what Boris' much welcomed Easter Sunday recovery means in the grand scheme of things.
Not acknowledging care home deaths in the numbers is just awful. These are also Mothers, Fathers and Grandparents, just as those dying in hospitals are. The government run the risk of being accused of downplaying numbers by doing so as well as denying people the dignity of being the equal of anyone else dying with this virus.
There are a bunch of countries who seem to be not counting these deaths.
France and Belgium recently changed to including them, which gave both a temporary spike.
It would seem logical to me to include them.... why these countries do not seems strange as the stories are there for all to see.
Scotland were going to include them, have they changed yet?
I'm intrigued by Hancock's implication that front line staff are wasting/mis-using PPE. He can't possibly have seen that for himself, so where did he get it? I can't help wondering if senior NHS bureaucrats fed him that line to divert attention from their own failures.
He didn’t quite say that
He said that there was sufficient PPE if it was used according to the governments guidelines
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The UK locked down on 23 March (having requested organisations to lock down from 20 March and schools from 18 March).
NZ locked down between 23-26 March.
So UK locked down earlier.
If you are arguing NZ locked down earlier vs the spread of the disease that is probable (hard to know for sure with low levels of testing) but clearly NZ had a massive benefit of seeing what was happening elsewhere across the world to aid that decision.
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments? Are they different from this afternoon's?
No but only now featuring on the media news programmes
I saw it this afternoon and I wish him well.
I did not extrapolate from his statement much more than his gratitude to those individuals and the institution that saved his bacon.
I have enjoyed watching PB Tories getting over excited this afternoon as to what Boris' much welcomed Easter Sunday recovery means in the grand scheme of things.
And what do you think it means ?
My interpretation is he now appreciates (surely he did previously anyway) the importance of the National Health Service as an institution and those dedicated staff that saved his hide and are risking their own lives to save others. No more!
I know it is twitter and all, and it's extreme no matter which side you look at, but seeing some of the comments under the Boris video I am more confused than anything else. I mean, if someone believes there is a #ToryGenocide going on I'm amazed they are not seeking to launch a violent uprising. I'd like to think I'd give it a go if I thought a genocide was going on.
(the comments on Corbyn's latest tweets seem to be less vicious, partly because they are more gloating/relieved comments)
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
But not over the whole of the country. Auckland has 1.5 times the population of Birmingham. It is not as densley packed, but it is still a large city.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is not a valid comparison
"Meanwhile little progress on getting 100,000 tests per day, PPE in short supply. This has been catastrophic mismanagement."
They may well struggle to make the 100k target. especially if the antibody test doesn't pass the obstacles. But I would hold my criticism until that happens.
However antigen tests only supply information, it doesn't cure anyone. It helps you get medical people back to work and confirms a diagnosis. However a negative test can be positive by the time it comes out. And what about the next day or the day after that?.
You can contact-trace but if there are many thousands, it's too late. if we come out of lockdown and have flattened the curve, it may become more useful
I suspect PPE isn't in short supply, but more likely in the wrong places. Cock-ups happen and will always occur. Jumping up and down isn't constructive. Pin-pointing the reason for the problem would be. Did I blink and miss that?
Bojo and his mates still have the armour of listening to the expert advice. Is it better to go with twitter, or even worse, the jumped up know-it-alls who infect it?
The UK has at least overtaken France again in terms of tests per head today
I'll wait for Sir Keir and the non student politicians, left and right, to learn lessons I think. But I expect she will be back in parliament at some point.
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments? Are they different from this afternoon's?
No but only now featuring on the media news programmes
I saw it this afternoon and I wish him well.
I did not extrapolate from his statement much more than his gratitude to those individuals and the institution that saved his bacon.
I have enjoyed watching PB Tories getting over excited this afternoon as to what Boris' much welcomed Easter Sunday recovery means in the grand scheme of things.
And what do you think it means ?
My interpretation is he now appreciates (surely he did previously anyway) the importance of the National Health Service as an institution and those dedicated staff that saved his hide and are risking their own lives to save others. No more!
Let’s see What happens in the next pay rise round.
Not acknowledging care home deaths in the numbers is just awful. These are also Mothers, Fathers and Grandparents, just as those dying in hospitals are. The government run the risk of being accused of downplaying numbers by doing so as well as denying people the dignity of being the equal of anyone else dying with this virus.
There are a bunch of countries who seem to be not counting these deaths.
France and Belgium recently changed to including them, which gave both a temporary spike.
It would seem logical to me to include them.... why these countries do not seems strange as the stories are there for all to see.
Scotland were going to include them, have they changed yet?
I dont think this is sinister or because someone has decided to deny them dignity. Id imagine it is because there is no system for quickly getting accurate information from thousands of small care homes. Partly because there was no need for it pre crisis, and also the first priority for care home staff would have been implementing safe procedures in their homes, not trying to feed numbers into a bureaucratic govt machine. (As the situation stabilises we should seek to get the care home numbers more quickly, but it shouldnt have been on the govt focus before now).
200 down from yesterday, sad news for the relatives but UK curve starting to flatten which is good news
This pattern happens every single week.
Up until last weekend the figure was doubling every 3.5 days, had the curve not flattened and that trend continued there would have been 2,500 deaths announced today
The number of deaths anounced today in the UK was 733, on Tuesday everyone was shocked that the figure hit 786. You really are clutching at straws if you think that one day's figure of 733 deaths in the middle of a long bank holiday weekend, in a time series that clearly dips over the weekend is good news.
Well it is good news, as for most of last week the rises per day were over 900, the curve is starting to flatten
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments? Are they different from this afternoon's?
No but only now featuring on the media news programmes
I saw it this afternoon and I wish him well.
I did not extrapolate from his statement much more than his gratitude to those individuals and the institution that saved his bacon.
I have enjoyed watching PB Tories getting over excited this afternoon as to what Boris' much welcomed Easter Sunday recovery means in the grand scheme of things.
And what do you think it means ?
My interpretation is he now appreciates (surely he did previously anyway) the importance of the National Health Service as an institution and those dedicated staff that saved his hide and are risking their own lives to save others. No more!
Maybe naive to think this will not colour every judgment he makes on the NHS from now on. I know if I had been through that experience it would change me quite dramatically
But then this must be a real concern to labour who seem to think only they care for the NHS and there is now someone else who actually has the power to make things work and provide a NHS fit for the 2020's
200 down from yesterday, sad news for the relatives but UK curve starting to flatten which is good news
This pattern happens every single week.
Up until last weekend the figure was doubling every 3.5 days, had the curve not flattened and that trend continued there would have been 2,500 deaths announced today
The lower figures today have nothing to do with the curve flattening and everything to do with the weekend effect that happens with the death reporting.
The death numbers are a lag factor and will be last to flatten. Numbers in hospital is a much better guide. On this level we have definitely flattened the curve
Oh, I have no doubt we are curve flattening, I'm just picking up on HYUFD's number bollocks.
My post was 100% correct, had the curve not flattened we would have 2500 new deaths announced today
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments? Are they different from this afternoon's?
No but only now featuring on the media news programmes
I saw it this afternoon and I wish him well.
I did not extrapolate from his statement much more than his gratitude to those individuals and the institution that saved his bacon.
I have enjoyed watching PB Tories getting over excited this afternoon as to what Boris' much welcomed Easter Sunday recovery means in the grand scheme of things.
And what do you think it means ?
My interpretation is he now appreciates (surely he did previously anyway) the importance of the National Health Service as an institution and those dedicated staff that saved his hide and are risking their own lives to save others. No more!
Let’s see What happens in the next pay rise round.
We shall indeed see. I am not holding my breath for 10% per year over ten years, unless inflation runs out of control. I am happy to be proven wrong.
200 down from yesterday, sad news for the relatives but UK curve starting to flatten which is good news
This pattern happens every single week.
Up until last weekend the figure was doubling every 3.5 days, had the curve not flattened and that trend continued there would have been 2,500 deaths announced today
The lower figures today have nothing to do with the curve flattening and everything to do with the weekend effect that happens with the death reporting.
The death numbers are a lag factor and will be last to flatten. Numbers in hospital is a much better guide. On this level we have definitely flattened the curve
Oh, I have no doubt we are curve flattening, I'm just picking up on HYUFD's number bollocks.
My post was 100% correct, had the curve not flattened we would have 2500 new deaths announced today
Surely all your posts are 100% correct? That last one implies that some of them might only be, say, 95% correct.
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
We have 6 million more people than Italy and still overall fewer deaths
200 down from yesterday, sad news for the relatives but UK curve starting to flatten which is good news
This pattern happens every single week.
Up until last weekend the figure was doubling every 3.5 days, had the curve not flattened and that trend continued there would have been 2,500 deaths announced today
The lower figures today have nothing to do with the curve flattening and everything to do with the weekend effect that happens with the death reporting.
The death numbers are a lag factor and will be last to flatten. Numbers in hospital is a much better guide. On this level we have definitely flattened the curve
Oh, I have no doubt we are curve flattening, I'm just picking up on HYUFD's number bollocks.
My post was 100% correct, had the curve not flattened we would have 2500 new deaths announced today
Surely all your posts are 100% correct? That last one implies that some of them might only be, say, 95% correct.
That is unfair. They are always 100% backed by statistics or polling evidence.
The statistics and polling evidence provided are sometimes wildly inaccurate and unreliable, but that is not HYUFD's fault.
Maybe naive to think this will not colour every judgment he makes on the NHS from now on. I know if I had been through that experience it would change me quite dramatically
But then this must be a real concern to labour who seem to think only they care for the NHS and there is now someone else who actually has the power to make things work and provide a NHS fit for the 2020's
As for Johnson, I hope the experience does change him for the better - the more cynical approach is the video was classic Boris - saying exactly what he thinks the British public wants to hear at a particular time.
As for the swipe at Labour, maybe, but there are genuine and valid questions to be asked and it's perfectly reasonable for the Government to be held to account down the line for the actions which were and were not taken based on the information available (which is more than is in the public domain).
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
We have 6 million more people than Italy and still overall fewer deaths
200 down from yesterday, sad news for the relatives but UK curve starting to flatten which is good news
This pattern happens every single week.
Up until last weekend the figure was doubling every 3.5 days, had the curve not flattened and that trend continued there would have been 2,500 deaths announced today
The lower figures today have nothing to do with the curve flattening and everything to do with the weekend effect that happens with the death reporting.
The death numbers are a lag factor and will be last to flatten. Numbers in hospital is a much better guide. On this level we have definitely flattened the curve
Oh, I have no doubt we are curve flattening, I'm just picking up on HYUFD's number bollocks.
My post was 100% correct, had the curve not flattened we would have 2500 new deaths announced today
Surely all your posts are 100% correct? That last one implies that some of them might only be, say, 95% correct.
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
We have 6 million more people than Italy and still overall fewer deaths
Come, come Mr HYUFD, you are wilfully mis-using data in this instance.
Well it is good news, as for most of last week the rises per day were over 900, the curve is starting to flatten
We can but hope but you'll forgive me if I wait a few days before I consider breaking open the inexpensive sparkling wine.
Contrarian raised the valid point of where we will be in a fortnight if we are simply flattening the curve and we are still seeing say 200-300 deaths per day and a continuing growth of cases.
I'd love to get to zero deaths and zero new cases but how long will that take and is any European country anywhere near that yet?
200 down from yesterday, sad news for the relatives but UK curve starting to flatten which is good news
This pattern happens every single week.
Up until last weekend the figure was doubling every 3.5 days, had the curve not flattened and that trend continued there would have been 2,500 deaths announced today
The number of deaths anounced today in the UK was 733, on Tuesday everyone was shocked that the figure hit 786. You really are clutching at straws if you think that one day's figure of 733 deaths in the middle of a long bank holiday weekend, in a time series that clearly dips over the weekend is good news.
Well it is good news, as for most of last week the rises per day were over 900, the curve is starting to flatten
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
The deaths on a single day simply do not matter. They aren't even deaths from that day, but instead they are an accumulation of reports that were counted on the same day.
What matters is where we stand in 18-24 months time when hopefully we are vaccinating the population. You can drive the fastest lap in a grand prix and still lose the race, of even fail to finish.
Tonight's comments from Boris must be the most amazing to camera piece by any Prime Minister on the NHS and must cement it into every part of his political thinking and direction
Tonight's comments? Are they different from this afternoon's?
No but only now featuring on the media news programmes
I saw it this afternoon and I wish him well.
I did not extrapolate from his statement much more than his gratitude to those individuals and the institution that saved his bacon.
I have enjoyed watching PB Tories getting over excited this afternoon as to what Boris' much welcomed Easter Sunday recovery means in the grand scheme of things.
And what do you think it means ?
My interpretation is he now appreciates (surely he did previously anyway) the importance of the National Health Service as an institution and those dedicated staff that saved his hide and are risking their own lives to save others. No more!
Maybe naive to think this will not colour every judgment he makes on the NHS from now on. I know if I had been through that experience it would change me quite dramatically
But then this must be a real concern to labour who seem to think only they care for the NHS and there is now someone else who actually has the power to make things work and provide a NHS fit for the 2020's
Cameron clearly had an affection for the NHS as well.
The problem remains that we are unable to have an honest conversation about health and demographics in our country.
We will need to spend much more on elderly care and better systems are needed to deliver it and raise standards. We need immigration for health and care workers. Many will want to bring their families and partners with them. We will still need significant net migration whether it comes from EU or elsewhere. We need to sort out obesity - this should be one of the most cost effective strategies (it should also drive up productivity outside of healthcare). People with assets have to pay more into the system. We dont have unlimited money and are not the richest in the world. Even with more money, healthcare will always be rationed and difficult choices will have to be made.
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The UK locked down on 23 March (having requested organisations to lock down from 20 March and schools from 18 March).
NZ locked down between 23-26 March.
So UK locked down earlier.
If you are arguing NZ locked down earlier vs the spread of the disease that is probable (hard to know for sure with low levels of testing) but clearly NZ had a massive benefit of seeing what was happening elsewhere across the world to aid that decision.
Yes, they were earlier in the spread of the disease but we had the same benefit of seeing what was happening. People who were open mouthed at the wasted weeks and more at the time aren’t going to forget that. The 12th March and the infamous ‘let it spread through the population’ is the day that will be remembered as the missed opportunity. 590 cases at that point and 10 deaths, during Cheltenham and before the Stereophonics gig the following Saturday. By the time of the current lockdown 6650 cases and 335 deaths, more than ten times as many cases and thirty times as many deaths. These were the eleven days that led us to where we are now and that exponential growth could have been stopped.
New Zealand closed the borders on 19th March to all but New Zealanders, a key factor and something that the UK has not done. By 26th lockdown was complete, at that point they had 331 cases and zero deaths. Now they have 1330 cases and 4 deaths, They didn’t wait for a death toll to increase and they isolated their nation, these were key decisions.
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
But not over the whole of the country. Auckland has 1.5 times the population of Birmingham. It is not as densley packed, but it is still a large city.
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
They have cities too. I appreciate it's not easy to admit that we were too slow, as we are still in the middle of it all, but that was a wasted week and more. The horror of the Irish looking across to see Cheltenham, the Stereophonics gig and so on was posted about earlier this morning. We are doing a lot of things well but leaving it too late to admit that we started really, really badly won't wash when it is owned up to later. Better to 'fess up now.
1.6 million of New Zealand's less than 5 million population lives in Auckland.
Yeah, they don't have many cities. These are mainly large towns!
Having toured NZ I can assure you that many country villages in England have better services than their ‘large towns’. Beautiful landscapes, but a very boring and culturally empty place.
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
But not over the whole of the country. Auckland has 1.5 times the population of Birmingham. It is not as densley packed, but it is still a large city.
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
They have cities too. I appreciate it's not easy to admit that we were too slow, as we are still in the middle of it all, but that was a wasted week and more. The horror of the Irish looking across to see Cheltenham, the Stereophonics gig and so on was posted about earlier this morning. We are doing a lot of things well but leaving it too late to admit that we started really, really badly won't wash when it is owned up to later. Better to 'fess up now.
1.6 million of New Zealand's less than 5 million population lives in Auckland.
Yeah, they don't have many cities. These are mainly large towns!
Having toured NZ I can assure you that many country villages in England have better services than their ‘large towns’. Beautiful landscapes, but a very boring and culturally empty place.
Having lived there in one of their provincial large towns for a year I agree.
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The UK locked down on 23 March (having requested organisations to lock down from 20 March and schools from 18 March).
NZ locked down between 23-26 March.
So UK locked down earlier.
If you are arguing NZ locked down earlier vs the spread of the disease that is probable (hard to know for sure with low levels of testing) but clearly NZ had a massive benefit of seeing what was happening elsewhere across the world to aid that decision.
Yes, they were earlier in the spread of the disease but we had the same benefit of seeing what was happening. People who were open mouthed at the wasted weeks and more at the time aren’t going to forget that. The 12th March and the infamous ‘let it spread through the population’ is the day that will be remembered as the missed opportunity. 590 cases at that point and 10 deaths, during Cheltenham and before the Stereophonics gig the following Saturday. By the time of the current lockdown 6650 cases and 335 deaths, more than ten times as many cases and thirty times as many deaths. These were the eleven days that led us to where we are now and that exponential growth could have been stopped.
New Zealand closed the borders on 19th March to all but New Zealanders, a key factor and something that the UK has not done. By 26th lockdown was complete, at that point they had 331 cases and zero deaths. Now they have 1330 cases and 4 deaths, They didn’t wait for a death toll to increase and they isolated their nation, these were key decisions.
When NZ were taking those decisions they had more information than the UK did. Closing borders is much easier in NZ which is one of the most remote countries in the world, probably the most remote country of its size?
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The UK locked down on 23 March (having requested organisations to lock down from 20 March and schools from 18 March).
NZ locked down between 23-26 March.
So UK locked down earlier.
If you are arguing NZ locked down earlier vs the spread of the disease that is probable (hard to know for sure with low levels of testing) but clearly NZ had a massive benefit of seeing what was happening elsewhere across the world to aid that decision.
Yes, they were earlier in the spread of the disease but we had the same benefit of seeing what was happening. People who were open mouthed at the wasted weeks and more at the time aren’t going to forget that. The 12th March and the infamous ‘let it spread through the population’ is the day that will be remembered as the missed opportunity. 590 cases at that point and 10 deaths, during Cheltenham and before the Stereophonics gig the following Saturday. By the time of the current lockdown 6650 cases and 335 deaths, more than ten times as many cases and thirty times as many deaths. These were the eleven days that led us to where we are now and that exponential growth could have been stopped.
New Zealand closed the borders on 19th March to all but New Zealanders, a key factor and something that the UK has not done. By 26th lockdown was complete, at that point they had 331 cases and zero deaths. Now they have 1330 cases and 4 deaths, They didn’t wait for a death toll to increase and they isolated their nation, these were key decisions.
When NZ were taking those decisions they had more information than the UK did. Closing borders is much easier in NZ which is one of the most remote countries in the world, probably the most remote country of its size?
You mean different countries might take different decisions based on what is feasible based on their circumstances? Interesting.
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The UK locked down on 23 March (having requested organisations to lock down from 20 March and schools from 18 March).
NZ locked down between 23-26 March.
So UK locked down earlier.
If you are arguing NZ locked down earlier vs the spread of the disease that is probable (hard to know for sure with low levels of testing) but clearly NZ had a massive benefit of seeing what was happening elsewhere across the world to aid that decision.
Yes, they were earlier in the spread of the disease but we had the same benefit of seeing what was happening. People who were open mouthed at the wasted weeks and more at the time aren’t going to forget that. The 12th March and the infamous ‘let it spread through the population’ is the day that will be remembered as the missed opportunity. 590 cases at that point and 10 deaths, during Cheltenham and before the Stereophonics gig the following Saturday. By the time of the current lockdown 6650 cases and 335 deaths, more than ten times as many cases and thirty times as many deaths. These were the eleven days that led us to where we are now and that exponential growth could have been stopped.
New Zealand closed the borders on 19th March to all but New Zealanders, a key factor and something that the UK has not done. By 26th lockdown was complete, at that point they had 331 cases and zero deaths. Now they have 1330 cases and 4 deaths, They didn’t wait for a death toll to increase and they isolated their nation, these were key decisions.
When NZ were taking those decisions they had more information than the UK did. Closing borders is much easier in NZ which is one of the most remote countries in the world, probably the most remote country of its size?
You mean different countries might take different decisions based on what is feasible based on their circumstances? Interesting.
The hospital deaths are the solid metric for judging the progress of the epidemic, assuming treatment outcomes remain fairly constant. The are lagging figures in terms of when infections took place but also are "smeared" over a period of days which is also a smaller lagging effect.
Given the shortage of general testing I'd have thought that COVID 19 deaths outside hospital for the current period will have to be calculated from general death rates and will be subject to quite a bit of uncertainty because they vary under normal conditions.
Valid comparisons with other countries and judgements on the relative effectiveness of government actions will need sophisticated statistical analysis and unfortunately will be subject to partisan wilful misinterpretation. Really catastrophic situations will be more obvious though and I hope we don't see any. We have to bear in mind not only differences in how honest statistics are collected but also totalitarian regime cover-ups.
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
We have 6 million more people than Italy and still overall fewer deaths
It’s not a competition.
Our curve started more gradually but is no flatter than Italy's at this stage, with numbers of new cases currently hovering around 1.2-1.3x higher than the same time last week. I'm not convinced we're going to be some massive outlier here, but it seems we can't hope for much better than an Italian / Spanish level outcome now, when a couple of weeks ago the promise of doing better was there.
I hope someone in government feels empowered enough to order a phase 2 lockdown if that is what is needed now.
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
We have 6 million more people than Italy and still overall fewer deaths
It’s not a competition.
Our curve started more gradually but is no flatter than Italy's at this stage, with numbers of new cases currently hovering around 1.2-1.3x higher than the same time last week. I'm not convinced we're going to be some massive outlier here, but it seems we can't hope for much better than an Italian / Spanish level outcome now, when a couple of weeks ago the promise of doing better was there.
I hope someone in government feels empowered enough to order a phase 2 lockdown if that is what is needed now.
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
We have 6 million more people than Italy and still overall fewer deaths
It’s not a competition.
Our curve started more gradually but is no flatter than Italy's at this stage, with numbers of new cases currently hovering around 1.2-1.3x higher than the same time last week. I'm not convinced we're going to be some massive outlier here, but it seems we can't hope for much better than an Italian / Spanish level outcome now, when a couple of weeks ago the promise of doing better was there.
I hope someone in government feels empowered enough to order a phase 2 lockdown if that is what is needed now.
What's surprising is that although the numbers are similar, the issues facing the health service in the two countries are very different. If I remember correctly they had to ration ICU usage even before the peak in Italy.
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
We have 6 million more people than Italy and still overall fewer deaths
It’s not a competition.
Our curve started more gradually but is no flatter than Italy's at this stage, with numbers of new cases currently hovering around 1.2-1.3x higher than the same time last week. I'm not convinced we're going to be some massive outlier here, but it seems we can't hope for much better than an Italian / Spanish level outcome now, when a couple of weeks ago the promise of doing better was there.
I hope someone in government feels empowered enough to order a phase 2 lockdown if that is what is needed now.
What is a phase 2 lockdown?
Somewhere between what it is currently, and welding of doors. Perhaps permits to go outside?
Not acknowledging care home deaths in the numbers is just awful. These are also Mothers, Fathers and Grandparents, just as those dying in hospitals are. The government run the risk of being accused of downplaying numbers by doing so as well as denying people the dignity of being the equal of anyone else dying with this virus.
The question is for comparison purposes, are the stats from across the world the same base and exclude care homes
The French and Belgians are now quoting them. A lot depends on how the frail elderly are looked after in various cultures, but in the UK, I think doubling the hospital deaths would be about the right ball park.
Not acknowledging care home deaths in the numbers is just awful. These are also Mothers, Fathers and Grandparents, just as those dying in hospitals are. The government run the risk of being accused of downplaying numbers by doing so as well as denying people the dignity of being the equal of anyone else dying with this virus.
The question is for comparison purposes, are the stats from across the world the same base and exclude care homes
The French and Belgians are now quoting them. A lot depends on how the frail elderly are looked after in various cultures, but in the UK, I think doubling the hospital deaths would be about the right ball park.
I think that is consistent with the figures from the ONS.
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
But not over the whole of the country. Auckland has 1.5 times the population of Birmingham. It is not as densley packed, but it is still a large city.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is not a valid comparison
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
We have 6 million more people than Italy and still overall fewer deaths
It’s not a competition.
Our curve started more gradually but is no flatter than Italy's at this stage, with numbers of new cases currently hovering around 1.2-1.3x higher than the same time last week. I'm not convinced we're going to be some massive outlier here, but it seems we can't hope for much better than an Italian / Spanish level outcome now, when a couple of weeks ago the promise of doing better was there.
I hope someone in government feels empowered enough to order a phase 2 lockdown if that is what is needed now.
What is a phase 2 lockdown?
Somewhere between what it is currently, and welding of doors. Perhaps permits to go outside?
It would be similar, but not necessarily identical, to the Italian phase 2 brought in on 21/3: primarily no onsite working at any non essential workplace whatsoever. Could also mean more restrictive exercise regulations and curbs on how shops operate, but the workplace restrictions would be the main ones.
Given that we were two weeks behind Italy, so we had extra time to prepare, react and take action, I think it's a monumental failure that we ended up with more deaths in a single day.
We have 6 million more people than Italy and still overall fewer deaths
It’s not a competition.
Our curve started more gradually but is no flatter than Italy's at this stage, with numbers of new cases currently hovering around 1.2-1.3x higher than the same time last week. I'm not convinced we're going to be some massive outlier here, but it seems we can't hope for much better than an Italian / Spanish level outcome now, when a couple of weeks ago the promise of doing better was there.
I hope someone in government feels empowered enough to order a phase 2 lockdown if that is what is needed now.
What is a phase 2 lockdown?
Somewhere between what it is currently, and welding of doors. Perhaps permits to go outside?
Not in favour.
My phase 2 lockdown would be extending the status quo ramping up testing and sorting out PPE as much as we can, whilst starting to put resource into finding options for how we can come out of lockdown. Some random examples below
- Sector by sector work with industry to come up with a plan for the rest of 2020, can we let restaurants re-open with 30-40% of current capacity perhaps? Might depend on the layouts of each building - How can we use phones, apps and tech to control and monitor the spread of the virus - How can we ration use of public transport to re-open offices - clearly rush hour could be significantly staggered but needs centrally enforced co-ordination - Get capability for testing and quarantining arrivals from overseas - no point now but might be useful in the future
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
But not over the whole of the country. Auckland has 1.5 times the population of Birmingham. It is not as densley packed, but it is still a large city.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is not a valid comparison
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
But not over the whole of the country. Auckland has 1.5 times the population of Birmingham. It is not as densley packed, but it is still a large city.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is not a valid comparison
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
But not over the whole of the country. Auckland has 1.5 times the population of Birmingham. It is not as densley packed, but it is still a large city.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is not a valid comparison
What about Ireland?
There is a common theme that the countries that have been hit hardest have multiple big cities (US, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands) whereas countries with less population density like Ireland, Greece, NZ, Norway, Finland have been hit less.
Within the UK the big urban areas have been hit the hardest as well. Geography matters at least as much as policy.
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
But not over the whole of the country. Auckland has 1.5 times the population of Birmingham. It is not as densley packed, but it is still a large city.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is not a valid comparison
Seems like virtually the only major European country that has done anything right, to read that, given how events have proceeded.
Yet Germany failed to contain the virus. It seemed more important for the authorities here not to inconvenience people going on skiing holidays than to seriously try to contain a deadly epidemic. Germany seeming so far to be doing a bit better than Britain isn't saying much. All the major European governments have been disappointing.
And why is Hammond indulging in lazy stereotypes? Not helpful, or funny if it's supposed to be a joke.
Taiwan looks to be doing the best so far.
New Zealand too. The message 'We go hard, we go early', very All Blacks. Didn't wait until people wanted to close things down, did it well before they'd even thought about it. As Jacinda Ardern said "“A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of supposedly a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,”
Clear, forceful, truthful, compassionate.
New Zealand is doing relatively well, but still worse than Taiwan (276 cases per million against 16 cases per million). New Zealand also had the advantage of seeing what was happening in other countries which I'm not sure they really made the most of.
The UK had that advantage too. Then we wasted at least a week before locking down. Leaders lead, they don't wait for the people to agree with them. NZ did that and they closed the borders as well, all things which the UK refused to do because they thought people wouldn't like it.
The population density of NZ is also only twice that of the Scottish Highlands... what we call 'social-distancing measures' here is what they call Tuesday.
But not over the whole of the country. Auckland has 1.5 times the population of Birmingham. It is not as densley packed, but it is still a large city.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is not a valid comparison
What about Ireland?
There is a common theme that the countries that have been hit hardest have multiple big cities (US, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands) whereas countries with less population density like Ireland, Greece, NZ, Norway, Finland have been hit less.
Within the UK the big urban areas have been hit the hardest as well. Geography matters at least as much as policy.
Comments
Police say they are facing "challenges in communicating the significance of the current situation" with non-English speaking groups over social distancing.
Interpreters have been used in Sheffield's Page Hall area to engage the Slovakian community about Covid-19.
South Yorkshire Police has reassured critics after pictures on social media showed groups in the streets.
Page Hall is home to a large Slovakian Roma community and South Yorkshire Police acknowledged that a significant amount of people living in the area do not speak English as their first language.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-52215051
Can I have source please?
"That's a pretty extraordinary allegation. Indeed,"
I blame those 5G masts.
With numbers, people love to attach stories to them. The stories are generally based on their preconceived world view more than logic and rational detailed analysis.
We can never know for sure which countries policies were best in this crisis - the best results dont automatically equate to the best policies. It is very counter intuitive and most people will prefer to stick with their beliefs ahead of rational analysis.
There's a whole chapter just simply entitled "Chris Williamson".
Weekly deaths in the UK this year have had a high of 14,058 (w/e 10 Jan), and a low of 10,645 (20 Mar).
If CV-19 was causing massive excess morbidity, we'd see it here.
If we are to get 50,000 excess deaths from CV-19 this cycle, then you'd expect weekly deaths to be peak at perhaps 25,000. (I.e about 13,000 excess deaths caused by CV-19 at peak.)
https://twitter.com/Harryb22/status/1248994294121345025
I did not extrapolate from his statement much more than his gratitude to those individuals and the institution that saved his bacon.
I have enjoyed watching PB Tories getting over excited this afternoon as to what Boris' much welcomed Easter Sunday recovery means in the grand scheme of things.
France and Belgium recently changed to including them, which gave both a temporary spike.
It would seem logical to me to include them.... why these countries do not seems strange as the stories are there for all to see.
Scotland were going to include them, have they changed yet?
He said that there was sufficient PPE if it was used according to the governments guidelines
NZ locked down between 23-26 March.
So UK locked down earlier.
If you are arguing NZ locked down earlier vs the spread of the disease that is probable (hard to know for sure with low levels of testing) but clearly NZ had a massive benefit of seeing what was happening elsewhere across the world to aid that decision.
(the comments on Corbyn's latest tweets seem to be less vicious, partly because they are more gloating/relieved comments)
But then this must be a real concern to labour who seem to think only they care for the NHS and there is now someone else who actually has the power to make things work and provide a NHS fit for the 2020's
The statistics and polling evidence provided are sometimes wildly inaccurate and unreliable, but that is not HYUFD's fault.
As for the swipe at Labour, maybe, but there are genuine and valid questions to be asked and it's perfectly reasonable for the Government to be held to account down the line for the actions which were and were not taken based on the information available (which is more than is in the public domain).
Contrarian raised the valid point of where we will be in a fortnight if we are simply flattening the curve and we are still seeing say 200-300 deaths per day and a continuing growth of cases.
I'd love to get to zero deaths and zero new cases but how long will that take and is any European country anywhere near that yet?
What matters is where we stand in 18-24 months time when hopefully we are vaccinating the population. You can drive the fastest lap in a grand prix and still lose the race, of even fail to finish.
The problem remains that we are unable to have an honest conversation about health and demographics in our country.
We will need to spend much more on elderly care and better systems are needed to deliver it and raise standards.
We need immigration for health and care workers. Many will want to bring their families and partners with them. We will still need significant net migration whether it comes from EU or elsewhere.
We need to sort out obesity - this should be one of the most cost effective strategies (it should also drive up productivity outside of healthcare).
People with assets have to pay more into the system.
We dont have unlimited money and are not the richest in the world. Even with more money, healthcare will always be rationed and difficult choices will have to be made.
New Zealand closed the borders on 19th March to all but New Zealanders, a key factor and something that the UK has not done. By 26th lockdown was complete, at that point they had 331 cases and zero deaths. Now they have 1330 cases and 4 deaths, They didn’t wait for a death toll to increase and they isolated their nation, these were key decisions.
I support Boris for his liberal views
I do not support Patel
Given the shortage of general testing I'd have thought that COVID 19 deaths outside hospital for the current period will have to be calculated from general death rates and will be subject to quite a bit of uncertainty because they vary under normal conditions.
Valid comparisons with other countries and judgements on the relative effectiveness of government actions will need sophisticated statistical analysis and unfortunately will be subject to partisan wilful misinterpretation. Really catastrophic situations will be more obvious though and I hope we don't see any. We have to bear in mind not only differences in how honest statistics are collected but also totalitarian regime cover-ups.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324363
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/boris-johnson-thanks-kiwi-nurse-jenny-invercargill-her-care-during-his-hospital-stay
I know Boris meant well but surely her whole life will be over the media worldwide the next few days?
I hope someone in government feels empowered enough to order a phase 2 lockdown if that is what is needed now.
https://twitter.com/mrandyngo/status/1249312537234923521?s=21
My Day Dream
I crave an ordinary day.
I want to burn the toast – and just shrug.
I want to stand in a crowded tube train when social distancing
means not leaning too heavily on a fellow passenger.
I want to hear from my office window kids shrieking
in a playground at lunchtime.
I want to shake hands to say goodbye to a colleague
who is leaving for pastures new.
I want supermarket shopping to be a chore -
not a carefully planned expedition.
I want to spend a grubby £20 note -
and receive a handful of patinated change.
I want a day when snagging a finger nail is noteworthy.
I want a day when my wife doesn't whiff feintly of bleach.
I want a day when I can brush away fear as easily as dandruff.
I want a cold, wet day, when even the dog doesn't want a walk.
I want a day when two plus two definitely equals four.
I want an ordinary, of no consequence, Thursday.
My phase 2 lockdown would be extending the status quo ramping up testing and sorting out PPE as much as we can, whilst starting to put resource into finding options for how we can come out of lockdown. Some random examples below
- Sector by sector work with industry to come up with a plan for the rest of 2020, can we let restaurants re-open with 30-40% of current capacity perhaps? Might depend on the layouts of each building
- How can we use phones, apps and tech to control and monitor the spread of the virus
- How can we ration use of public transport to re-open offices - clearly rush hour could be significantly staggered but needs centrally enforced co-ordination
- Get capability for testing and quarantining arrivals from overseas - no point now but might be useful in the future
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1249372642454515712?s=20
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Within the UK the big urban areas have been hit the hardest as well. Geography matters at least as much as policy.