Is no 6 attached to the shrub? If not, if wonder if it is coltsfoot poking through from the ground. Early flowering dandelion lookalike with bracts on the stalk. Seen it flowering here (N Scotland) recently.
1) Wild strawberry (I think) although mine are not in flower so not sure. They are weeds. Rampant and fruit too small for the effort 2) Red Robin 3) Magnolia as you said 4) Heather (I think) 5) ? too many 6) Don't know but I have it also
Great news for population studies, and we can finally test the iceberg theory.
I think you need to read the thread. The issues of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value do limit the utility of such a test, except as a screen for a more definitive test.
I would definitely read the thread as it makes some points me and FrancisU and a few others have been going on about on here about how testing can be very misleading especially during the early stages of an epidemic because it depends not just on the mechanical features of the test but also on what proportion of people you're testing are infected (something the CMO brings up in press conferences sometimes without explaining the details of, and the Spiegel piece I linked to showed is very dangerous in Germany with too many poorly targeted tests being done on low risk groups resulting a worrying number of people with false negatives going on to spread the disease) but actually Rob has a point here. If you test a whole bunch of people then you'll still get an idea of population prevalence which would be fantastic news in terms of investigating the "iceberg" hypothesis of many asymptomatic infected people developing immunity. The bad news is that the test results for any individual person are pretty dodgy and as the thread shows you might want to combine with other testing into a kind of South Korean style "funnel".
Incidentally does anyone know if random blood / sputum samples are being taken and frozen throughout the epidemic for investigation later when better testing is available, purely so we can retrospectively model how the disease progressed when we are at a better stage to do so scientifically?II know this kind of thing was done in some historical vetinerary epidemics which has even allowed using genetic sequencing to observe, retrospectively, pathogen evolution when such tech would have been scifi stuff at the time of the epidemic itself. Do we do the same for humans?
You don't need to sample a massive number of people though. If you design a good study that samples representative people from across the population you can get a good idea of what's going on at the population level without sampling millions. It will not help people know if they've had it, but it does give the government a lot of insight. This sort of targeted study was announced at the Thursday press conference I believe.
Incidentally I got Hancock / Jenrick letter today saying how to register for the services being laid on for the clinically extremely vulnerable while I do my three months shielding. I had registered already following a prompt by text last week but obviously not everyone has a mobile phone (or the government may not have their up to date number) hence the letter. Registration was pretty hassle free and someone from people I know it seems the food parcels are starting to be delivered now, also supermarkets are prioritising delivery slots for those on the shielding list.
Just wanted to say Hancock signed off the letter in massive, primary school handwriting as just "Matt". It was actually rather endearing!
Rather overshadowed is the news that the very moderate Jackie Baillie has been elected deputy leader of Scottish Labour. She was sacked from the front bench by the left-wing and useless leader Richard Leonard.
Worth remembering that Labour, however badly they have been doing in Scotland, never have suffered from the toxic reputation that the Scots Tories had to deal with.
Considerable scope for a recovery if the population tires of the obsession with Indy. A Sturgeon departure after Covid could be a game-changer north of the border.
Telling that the departure of an SNP leader rather than the elections of decades long chair warmers by both main Unionist parties is seen as the condition for a game change.
'Please, please elect someone as crap as wot we've got.'
Starmer also polls better with Scots than Miliband and Corbyn did perfectly possible he could win back some centre left Scots from the SNP, especially as the more radical cybernats are starting to make trouble for Sturgeon over her lack of eagerness to push for independence
Yep. Danger to SNP is that the voting coalition will break down and all they're left with are the radical cybernats. If they lose Sturgeon with her image of cool competence and end up with the Salmondites in control then all bets are off an SNP hegemony may come to an end.
well a worrying conversation with a neighbour this morning. She is a nurse at the local GPs and she says that the number of deaths in the community they are seeing is terrifying. I have to say I am concerned that the ONS figures over the next few weeks which show the real rates of death are going to dwarf what we are seeing in the official daily numbers. Very sobering.
We have a GP in our family. I was told three weeks ago some of the brutal decisions that are having to be made.
It's why I get slightly vexed when I hear the contrarians complaining about the lockdown. They literally do not have a clue what is going on here.
My own progress report: Day 14 for me; Day 17 for my wife.
She's feeling much better today, nearly there. By contrast I had the worst day so far yesterday.
For those who get it moderately badly there seems to be a difficult first week ending with some notional improvement. But then sometime in the middle to end of the second week there is another severe episode. I was close to calling an ambulance yesterday as my breathing was very heavy and had a terrible fever but my sats were holding up. Feeling a bit better today.
Take care all and stay safe. You don't want this bastard virus.
I wish you a complete recovery, soon. My cousin is on the mend from what sounds a similar experience.
On your first point, if you have the energy, can you give some insight into the reporting of deaths in the community. At what point do they show up in the overall national figures (not for Covid) ?
Thanks.
I have no additional insight apart from what is now starting to get reported. Namely:
1) Official stats are currently only recording patients dying within hospitals
2) Primary care in the hot-spots are unfortunately having to triage quite aggressively and many of those with poor prognosis are unlikely to ever get into a hospital. Instead palliative care is being offered.
As a consequence of 1) and 2) current statistics are only telling half (?) the story.
Thanks. Regarding 1), I was asking about the overall (not just Covid) death figures. Can anyone else point to how these are collected and reported (and with what time lag) ?
Great news for population studies, and we can finally test the iceberg theory.
I think you need to read the thread. The issues of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value do limit the utility of such a test, except as a screen for a more definitive test.
I would definitely read the thread as it makes some points me and FrancisU and a few others have been going on about on here about how testing can be very misleading especially during the early stages of an epidemic because it depends not just on the mechanical features of the test but also on what proportion of people you're testing are infected (something the CMO brings up in press conferences sometimes without explaining the details of, and the Spiegel piece I linked to showed is very dangerous in Germany with too many poorly targeted tests being done on low risk groups resulting a worrying number of people with false negatives going on to spread the disease) but actually Rob has a point here. If you test a whole bunch of people then you'll still get an idea of population prevalence which would be fantastic news in terms of investigating the "iceberg" hypothesis of many asymptomatic infected people developing immunity. The bad news is that the test results for any individual person are pretty dodgy and as the thread shows you might want to combine with other testing into a kind of South Korean style "funnel".
Incidentally does anyone know if random blood / sputum samples are being taken and frozen throughout the epidemic for investigation later when better testing is available, purely so we can retrospectively model how the disease progressed when we are at a better stage to do so scientifically?II know this kind of thing was done in some historical vetinerary epidemics which has even allowed using genetic sequencing to observe, retrospectively, pathogen evolution when such tech would have been scifi stuff at the time of the epidemic itself. Do we do the same for humans?
You don't need to sample a massive number of people though. If you design a good study that samples representative people from across the population you can get a good idea of what's going on at the population level without sampling millions. It will not help people know if they've had it, but it does give the government a lot of insight. This sort of targeted study was announced at the Thursday press conference I believe.
You’d think people posting on a site ostensibly focussed on a topic where polling is vital would get that broad concept.
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Rather overshadowed is the news that the very moderate Jackie Baillie has been elected deputy leader of Scottish Labour. She was sacked from the front bench by the left-wing and useless leader Richard Leonard.
Worth remembering that Labour, however badly they have been doing in Scotland, never have suffered from the toxic reputation that the Scots Tories had to deal with.
Considerable scope for a recovery if the population tires of the obsession with Indy. A Sturgeon departure after Covid could be a game-changer north of the border.
The opposite of being obsessed with Indy is not being obsessed with saving the union.
Exactly. The latter are voting SCon. SLab need an end to both obsessions and a reorientation to other issues such as declining public services etc.
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Great news for population studies, and we can finally test the iceberg theory.
I think you need to read the thread. The issues of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value do limit the utility of such a test, except as a screen for a more definitive test.
I would definitely read the thread as it makes some points me and FrancisU and a few others have been going on about on here about how testing can be very misleading especially during the early stages of an epidemic because it depends not just on the mechanical features of the test but also on what proportion of people you're testing are infected (something the CMO brings up in press conferences sometimes without explaining the details of, and the Spiegel piece I linked to showed is very dangerous in Germany with too many poorly targeted tests being done on low risk groups resulting a worrying number of people with false negatives going on to spread the disease) but actually Rob has a point here. If you test a whole bunch of people then you'll still get an idea of population prevalence which would be fantastic news in terms of investigating the "iceberg" hypothesis of many asymptomatic infected people developing immunity. The bad news is that the test results for any individual person are pretty dodgy and as the thread shows you might want to combine with other testing into a kind of South Korean style "funnel".
Incidentally does anyone know if random blood / sputum samples are being taken and frozen throughout the epidemic for investigation later when better testing is available, purely so we can retrospectively model how the disease progressed when we are at a better stage to do so scientifically?II know this kind of thing was done in some historical vetinerary epidemics which has even allowed using genetic sequencing to observe, retrospectively, pathogen evolution when such tech would have been scifi stuff at the time of the epidemic itself. Do we do the same for humans?
You don't need to sample a massive number of people though. If you design a good study that samples representative people from across the population you can get a good idea of what's going on at the population level without sampling millions. It will not help people know if they've had it, but it does give the government a lot of insight. This sort of targeted study was announced at the Thursday press conference I believe.
Indeed, I don't know how many years you've been watching PB but the question "how come we only need an opinion poll of a few thousand people regardless of whether it is for the UK or USA" has often come up and been dealt with in the comments. Similar maths applies.
You do need more random tests if you're going to try to measure how it is spreading at different rates around the country rather than if you just want to focus on the national prevalence but we are still talking numbers that are small enough to be done relatively quickly even at current testing capacity.
1) Wild strawberry (I think) although mine are not in flower so not sure. They are weeds. Rampant and fruit too small for the effort 2) Red Robin 3) Magnolia as you said 4) Heather (I think) 5) ? too many 6) Don't know but I have it also
I have just had a look at my No 6. It is characteristic of a rose but without thorns and much softer leaves. Would also love to know. I have a very long red robin hedge. It is a nice plant, easy to grow, evergreen and the new leaves are red for quite sometime. Not as dense as laurel and does need regular pruning to get it dense. Grows pretty fast as well.
Great news for population studies, and we can finally test the iceberg theory.
I think you need to read the thread. The issues of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value do limit the utility of such a test, except as a screen for a more definitive test.
I would definitely read the thread as it makes some points me and FrancisU and a few others have been going on about on here about how testing can be very misleading especially during the early stages of an epidemic because it depends not just on the mechanical features of the test but also on what proportion of people you're testing are infected (something the CMO brings up in press conferences sometimes without explaining the details of, and the Spiegel piece I linked to showed is very dangerous in Germany with too many poorly targeted tests being done on low risk groups resulting a worrying number of people with false negatives going on to spread the disease) but actually Rob has a point here. If you test a whole bunch of people then you'll still get an idea of population prevalence which would be fantastic news in terms of investigating the "iceberg" hypothesis of many asymptomatic infected people developing immunity. The bad news is that the test results for any individual person are pretty dodgy and as the thread shows you might want to combine with other testing into a kind of South Korean style "funnel".
Incidentally does anyone know if random blood / sputum samples are being taken and frozen throughout the epidemic for investigation later when better testing is available, purely so we can retrospectively model how the disease progressed when we are at a better stage to do so scientifically?II know this kind of thing was done in some historical vetinerary epidemics which has even allowed using genetic sequencing to observe, retrospectively, pathogen evolution when such tech would have been scifi stuff at the time of the epidemic itself. Do we do the same for humans?
You don't need to sample a massive number of people though. If you design a good study that samples representative people from across the population you can get a good idea of what's going on at the population level without sampling millions. It will not help people know if they've had it, but it does give the government a lot of insight. This sort of targeted study was announced at the Thursday press conference I believe.
You’d think people posting on a site ostensibly focussed on a topic where polling is vital would get that broad concept.
What @MyBurningEars says is absolutely correct though. During the early stages of an epidemic, the number of infections will be below the margin of error of a typical poll and its spread is not random, so to gain any meaningful insights you would need something much more comprehensive.
Great news for population studies, and we can finally test the iceberg theory.
I think you need to read the thread. The issues of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value do limit the utility of such a test, except as a screen for a more definitive test.
The thread itself said it was good for statistical studies, but not as good for determining if an individual had it.
Rather overshadowed is the news that the very moderate Jackie Baillie has been elected deputy leader of Scottish Labour. She was sacked from the front bench by the left-wing and useless leader Richard Leonard.
Worth remembering that Labour, however badly they have been doing in Scotland, never have suffered from the toxic reputation that the Scots Tories had to deal with.
Considerable scope for a recovery if the population tires of the obsession with Indy. A Sturgeon departure after Covid could be a game-changer north of the border.
The opposite of being obsessed with Indy is not being obsessed with saving the union.
Exactly. The latter are voting SCon. SLab need an end to both obsessions and a reorientation to other issues such as declining public services etc.
There's no sign that Scottish Labour are offering that. They seem to be obsessed with trying to impose a quasi-federal solution on "the nations and regions".
well a worrying conversation with a neighbour this morning. She is a nurse at the local GPs and she says that the number of deaths in the community they are seeing is terrifying. I have to say I am concerned that the ONS figures over the next few weeks which show the real rates of death are going to dwarf what we are seeing in the official daily numbers. Very sobering.
That matches what I am hearing. The numbers will be difficult though as only inpatients are swabbed, so difficult to record accurately as COVID19 related.
The grim reaper is having a brutal week.
I am assuming we will be left with comparing death rates this year with those from previous years to get some idea of the real numbers. In Bergamo their numbers of deaths for March are six times those of the same time last year.
Yes, though it will be a mix of undiagnosed COVID19 mortality and other conditions whose usual care was disrupted.
I have heard the same from older relatives - GP car parks full of people demanding that their normal care resumes. Some of them had life-threatening conditions but the GP Practice doors are locked and the staff are sitting inside looking out at angry patients. It sort of tarnishes the "NHS hero" memes.
Not seeing anything like that around here.
Thing that shocks me is the queue for the pharmacy. Would love to know what % of the population are on prescription medication of one for or another....
I think the closed GP thing is local guidance so it will vary from place to place. I would say that a sizeable percentage of the population are on prescription meds. In my own family it is 50% and anyone over 50 is likely to be on hypertension meds - it is very common in that age group.
In other words, admissions are still going up, but the rate of increase is decelerating. Next milestone is when they stop going up, and the one after that (expected Easter monday when I last heard) is when they are outnumbered by the number leaving hospital. At that point, the crisis for NHS provision will have peaked.
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Rather overshadowed is the news that the very moderate Jackie Baillie has been elected deputy leader of Scottish Labour. She was sacked from the front bench by the left-wing and useless leader Richard Leonard.
Worth remembering that Labour, however badly they have been doing in Scotland, never have suffered from the toxic reputation that the Scots Tories had to deal with.
Considerable scope for a recovery if the population tires of the obsession with Indy. A Sturgeon departure after Covid could be a game-changer north of the border.
The opposite of being obsessed with Indy is not being obsessed with saving the union.
Exactly. The latter are voting SCon. SLab need an end to both obsessions and a reorientation to other issues such as declining public services etc.
There's no sign that Scottish Labour are offering that. They seem to be obsessed with trying to impose a quasi-federal solution on "the nations and regions".
AKA destroying England. A properly federal four nation constitution would be the best I think. English local government should be a matter for the English, as it is for the Scots.
I accidentally got onto this gardening site whilst looking for some views on the Labour leadership! Since I am here would it be rude to ask for some recommendations of a hedging plant to go at the front between our and our terraced neighbour. Something attractive for much of the year, not too high (3ft max I think), and good for invertebrates (e.g. bees and butterflies). We had box but the box moths have killed it.Thank you.
Great news for population studies, and we can finally test the iceberg theory.
I think you need to read the thread. The issues of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value do limit the utility of such a test, except as a screen for a more definitive test.
I would definitely read the thread as it makes some points me and FrancisU and a few others have been going on about on here about how testing can be very misleading especially during the early stages of an epidemic because it depends not just on the mechanical features of the test but also on what proportion of people you're testing are infected (something the CMO brings up in press conferences sometimes without explaining the details of, and the Spiegel piece I linked to showed is very dangerous in Germany with too many poorly targeted tests being done on low risk groups resulting a worrying number of people with false negatives going on to spread the disease) but actually Rob has a point here. If you test a whole bunch of people then you'll still get an idea of population prevalence which would be fantastic news in terms of investigating the "iceberg" hypothesis of many asymptomatic infected people developing immunity. The bad news is that the test results for any individual person are pretty dodgy and as the thread shows you might want to combine with other testing into a kind of South Korean style "funnel".
Incidentally does anyone know if random blood / sputum samples are being taken and frozen throughout the epidemic for investigation later when better testing is available, purely so we can retrospectively model how the disease progressed when we are at a better stage to do so scientifically?II know this kind of thing was done in some historical vetinerary epidemics which has even allowed using genetic sequencing to observe, retrospectively, pathogen evolution when such tech would have been scifi stuff at the time of the epidemic itself. Do we do the same for humans?
You don't need to sample a massive number of people though. If you design a good study that samples representative people from across the population you can get a good idea of what's going on at the population level without sampling millions. It will not help people know if they've had it, but it does give the government a lot of insight. This sort of targeted study was announced at the Thursday press conference I believe.
You’d think people posting on a site ostensibly focussed on a topic where polling is vital would get that broad concept.
What @MyBurningEars says is absolutely correct though. During the early stages of an epidemic, the number of infections will be below the margin of error of a typical poll and its spread is not random, so to gain any meaningful insights you would need something much more comprehensive.
That’s fair. I meant no disrespect to Mr (or Ms) Ears!
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
I accidentally got onto this gardening site whilst looking for some views on the Labour leadership! Since I am here would it be rude to ask for some recommendations of a hedging plant to go at the front between our and our terraced neighbour. Something attractive for much of the year, not too high (3ft max I think), and good for invertebrates (e.g. bees and butterflies). We had box but the box moths have killed it.Thank you.
Very diverse people here, Train spotters, moth catchers, gardeners, history buffs, engineers and classical scholars to name but a few. There are even some lawyers I think and occasionally you’ll find a real politician who has stood in real elections.
@MattW may I recommend an app called PictureThis which identifies plants with great reliability?
Could have done with that yesterday when I was at the local farm shop unable to confidently identify kale in the absence of labels and (social distancing) store workers
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
In other words, admissions are still going up, but the rate of increase is decelerating. Next milestone is when they stop going up, and the one after that (expected Easter monday when I last heard) is when they are outnumbered by the number leaving hospital. At that point, the crisis for NHS provision will have peaked.
No, the stats released are perfectly clear admissions were lower on Thursday than Wednesday. We don't have info on how many people are discharged, or the days since Thursday yet, but given the admissions number went up every single day until Thursday when it declined in the 2 largest regions simultaneously, c. 2 weeks after most people got serious about social distancing, there is good reason to be optimistic that's the start of a trend.
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Can I say HYUFD that I amongst others have criticised you for your unequivocal support for Boris. However you clearly understand the need for effective opposition and have banged the drum for Starmer on PB since the general election.
Thankyou, I certainly think he can provide a better opposition to the government than Corbyn did, tgough I remain loyal to Boris of course
Indeed you should. But if Boris cocks-up big time, you at least now have somewhere sensible to go! (Hopefully!)
I stuck with the Tories even in 1997 and 2001, trust me I am not the swing voter you need to convince
I thought I was Labour 'til I die. And then along came Jeremy!
I am also chairman of Epping and Theydon Bois Conservatives, Jeremy just made the job easier
Steady as she goes. Would be interesting to see someone fit the announced death daily figures on to the hospital admissions data released to get a rough feeling for time lag.
Steady as she goes. Would be interesting to see someone fit the announced death daily figures on to the hospital admissions data released to get a rough feeling for time lag.
Also, over the past couple of days, the fraction of positive tests has steadied (and is slightly increasing) and the number of new cases identified is staying pretty constant. If the number of daily fatalities stays in the 700-900 range over the next week and the new cases remain around 4000 that would be quite a 'positive' result. Let's hope it does stabilise in this range - still no guarantees of course...
PS Note that the number of people tested almost certainly does not equal the number of tests, since some require multiple tests. I don't think the government have been good at communicating this aspect at all...
I accidentally got onto this gardening site whilst looking for some views on the Labour leadership! Since I am here would it be rude to ask for some recommendations of a hedging plant to go at the front between our and our terraced neighbour. Something attractive for much of the year, not too high (3ft max I think), and good for invertebrates (e.g. bees and butterflies). We had box but the box moths have killed it.Thank you.
...and you got onto moths too! Shame about the box moth - smart looker, but quite deadly to box. When it gets going, it really does get invasive. Some outdoor restaurants in France get plagued by them in the evenings.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
Herd immunity got a very bad press and was dropped like a hot potato but the truth is that it is that or a vaccine. This virus is not going away. I am also troubled about @Foxy's comment the other day that many who survive this virus have permanently damaged lungs. I agree that the longer term health consequences of this are yet to play out.
Yes - and until that vaccine is rolled out, those at risk will effectively have to live under some form of lockdown.
I learnt yesterday that my current GP practice and my new one (given that I will be stuck here for a year at least) are arguing about who should give me an asthma review. Without it no prescription and without that no inhalers which is not an optimal position to be in at such a time. I am hoping that this will get sorted on Monday. Stress is not great for asthmatics.
I had a similar problem and found that I could order online via superdrug getting a prescription from their online doctors then pick up in store. Not sure if that is an option for you
I accidentally got onto this gardening site whilst looking for some views on the Labour leadership! Since I am here would it be rude to ask for some recommendations of a hedging plant to go at the front between our and our terraced neighbour. Something attractive for much of the year, not too high (3ft max I think), and good for invertebrates (e.g. bees and butterflies). We had box but the box moths have killed it.Thank you.
For a low hedge, rosemary is good, dry tolerant but likes it sunny, and can be tricky to keep to shape.
That's an increase of under 10‰ which is the lowest since very early on, and the deaths is an increase of under 20%, the lowest since last Sunday (they're yesterday's figures). Let's hope they are not just blips, and the increase in infections isn't just weekend-related. However it does tie in with admissions if they are also falling.
Steady as she goes. Would be interesting to see someone fit the announced death daily figures on to the hospital admissions data released to get a rough feeling for time lag.
Also, over the past couple of days, the fraction of positive tests has steadied (and is slightly increasing) and the number of new cases identified is staying pretty constant. If the number of daily fatalities stays in the 700-900 range over the next week and the new cases remain around 4000 that would be quite a 'positive' result. Let's hope it does stabilise in this range - still no guarantees of course...
PS Note that the number of people tested almost certainly does not equal the number of tests, since some require multiple tests. I don't think the government have been good at communicating this aspect at all...
Every reason to believe actual new infections peaked about 2 weeks ago given the 7 day average lag to first symptoms, and similar time period to then get to requiring hospital admission. Limitations of testing volumes and who it's aimed at is always going to make it a very weak very lagged indicator. If the recent rise in the death rate is due to the steeper rise in hospitalisation around the 25th to 28th, we could be looking at peak deaths for the back end of next week and hopefully signs of plateau or decline over the Easter weekend
An interesting discussion point. Without looking at the details my instinctive response is that the vast majority of industries and jobs are going to be negatively impacted, so join the list. It is unrealistic of the pharma industry to think the status quo will be maintained during the crisis, but govt seizures of IP related covid 19 should not set precedents for the future.
Over lunchtime I have been thinking on the way forward and if Boris and Starmer can come together over covid 19, and as we move past mid summer, strike a relationship over europe which sees a trade deal and a close relationship with the EU, but keeps away from any responsibility re eurozone debt, and then moves the country to a much more compassionate society I would be delighted
And in the process slays Farage, IDS, Corbyn, Mcdonnell and Abbott that is my dream result
Over lunchtime I have been thinking on the way forward and if Boris and Starmer can come together over covid 19, and as we move past mid summer, strike a relationship over europe which sees a trade deal and a close relationship with the EU, but keeps away from any responsibility re eurozone debt, and then moves the country to a much more compassionate society I would be delighted
And in the process slays Farage, IDS, Corbyn, Mcdonnell and Abbott that is my dream result
Over lunchtime I have been thinking on the way forward and if Boris and Starmer can come together over covid 19, and as we move past mid summer, strike a relationship over europe which sees a trade deal and a close relationship with the EU, but keeps away from any responsibility re eurozone debt, and then moves the country to a much more compassionate society I would be delighted
And in the process slays Farage, IDS, Corbyn, Mcdonnell and Abbott that is my dream result
Steady as she goes. Would be interesting to see someone fit the announced death daily figures on to the hospital admissions data released to get a rough feeling for time lag.
Also, over the past couple of days, the fraction of positive tests has steadied (and is slightly increasing) and the number of new cases identified is staying pretty constant. If the number of daily fatalities stays in the 700-900 range over the next week and the new cases remain around 4000 that would be quite a 'positive' result. Let's hope it does stabilise in this range - still no guarantees of course...
PS Note that the number of people tested almost certainly does not equal the number of tests, since some require multiple tests. I don't think the government have been good at communicating this aspect at all...
Every reason to believe actual new infections peaked about 2 weeks ago given the 7 day average lag to first symptoms, and similar time period to then get to requiring hospital admission. Limitations of testing volumes and who it's aimed at is always going to make it a very weak very lagged indicator. If the recent rise in the death rate is due to the steeper rise in hospitalisation around the 25th to 28th, we could be looking at peak deaths for the back end of next week and hopefully signs of plateau or decline over the Easter weekend
Judging by the numbers from other countries, plateauing is a long and painful process. And those are countries with stricter measures than the UK.
Over lunchtime I have been thinking on the way forward and if Boris and Starmer can come together over covid 19, and as we move past mid summer, strike a relationship over europe which sees a trade deal and a close relationship with the EU, but keeps away from any responsibility re eurozone debt, and then moves the country to a much more compassionate society I would be delighted
And in the process slays Farage, IDS, Corbyn, Mcdonnell and Abbott that is my dream result
We are all on the centre left now folks
All parties have been left of centre since the Tories put Cameron in charge
Over lunchtime I have been thinking on the way forward and if Boris and Starmer can come together over covid 19, and as we move past mid summer, strike a relationship over europe which sees a trade deal and a close relationship with the EU, but keeps away from any responsibility re eurozone debt, and then moves the country to a much more compassionate society I would be delighted
And in the process slays Farage, IDS, Corbyn, Mcdonnell and Abbott that is my dream result
Over lunchtime I have been thinking on the way forward and if Boris and Starmer can come together over covid 19, and as we move past mid summer, strike a relationship over europe which sees a trade deal and a close relationship with the EU, but keeps away from any responsibility re eurozone debt, and then moves the country to a much more compassionate society I would be delighted
And in the process slays Farage, IDS, Corbyn, Mcdonnell and Abbott that is my dream result
We are all on the centre left now folks
How many’d you have?
We can dream can't we and no, I do not drink
Why would a conservative dream about their party, who has an 80 seat majority, merging with Labour just because they’ve replaced a hard socialist with a left wing politician? Utterly bizarre
Over lunchtime I have been thinking on the way forward and if Boris and Starmer can come together over covid 19, and as we move past mid summer, strike a relationship over europe which sees a trade deal and a close relationship with the EU, but keeps away from any responsibility re eurozone debt, and then moves the country to a much more compassionate society I would be delighted
And in the process slays Farage, IDS, Corbyn, Mcdonnell and Abbott that is my dream result
We are all on the centre left now folks
How many’d you have?
We can dream can't we and no, I do not drink
Why would a conservative want their party, who has an 80 seat majority, to merge with Labour just because they’ve replaced a hard socialist with a left wing politician? Utterly bizarre
Over lunchtime I have been thinking on the way forward and if Boris and Starmer can come together over covid 19, and as we move past mid summer, strike a relationship over europe which sees a trade deal and a close relationship with the EU, but keeps away from any responsibility re eurozone debt, and then moves the country to a much more compassionate society I would be delighted
And in the process slays Farage, IDS, Corbyn, Mcdonnell and Abbott that is my dream result
We are all on the centre left now folks
All parties have been left of centre since the Tories put Cameron in charge
"Left of centre PM Boris Johnson" will cause heads to explode on the centre left,
I hear my neighbours have got visitors round for about the sixth time since the "lockdown" started.
Call the police on them, they're in flagrant breach of the law now.
Balanced against the fact these are his neighbours and people he may have to live alongside for years to come. Sometimes a blind eye is the lesser of two evils
Steady as she goes. Would be interesting to see someone fit the announced death daily figures on to the hospital admissions data released to get a rough feeling for time lag.
Also, over the past couple of days, the fraction of positive tests has steadied (and is slightly increasing) and the number of new cases identified is staying pretty constant. If the number of daily fatalities stays in the 700-900 range over the next week and the new cases remain around 4000 that would be quite a 'positive' result. Let's hope it does stabilise in this range - still no guarantees of course...
PS Note that the number of people tested almost certainly does not equal the number of tests, since some require multiple tests. I don't think the government have been good at communicating this aspect at all...
Every reason to believe actual new infections peaked about 2 weeks ago given the 7 day average lag to first symptoms, and similar time period to then get to requiring hospital admission. Limitations of testing volumes and who it's aimed at is always going to make it a very weak very lagged indicator. If the recent rise in the death rate is due to the steeper rise in hospitalisation around the 25th to 28th, we could be looking at peak deaths for the back end of next week and hopefully signs of plateau or decline over the Easter weekend
Judging by the numbers from other countries, plateauing is a long and painful process. And those are countries with stricter measures than the UK.
Yes we'll have to see - most of the obvious places to look so far have a high concentration in one places followed by peaks in the rest of the country later (i.e. Lombardy & Madrid) which inevitably lengthen out the curve. Whilst London is ahead of the game here it's nowhere near that status yet, with the Midlands hospital admissions dipping on the same day, so that may mean we are in for a more severe, but shorter, peak if the whole country is at a similar place on the curve.
This may be a questionable decision, but I'm going to ask strangers on the internet for investment advice:
I am a very fortunate 30 year old. I own a modest home outright, worth roughly £200k or a tad more. I have a secure job paying just under £30k before tax. I rent out two rooms of my house to earn an additional £10k before tax (and the lodger tax break makes that minimal).
As such I am able to invest about a grand a month into pension and another grand a month into a stocks and shares ISA. However, I wonder if the recent and predicted market falls mean now would be a good time to leverage myself slightly to boost my share investments.
I'm considering taking out a £50k mortgage against my house and upping my share purchases to £3k per month for 17 months. I'd pay the mortgage off at £1k per month, meaning from month 18 to month 55 I'd be investing much less into my stocks and shares ISA. Essentially, I'd have brought forward 50 months of investments into 17 months now, at the cost of roughly £5k in transaction costs and interest.
The logic being that investments over the next year or two may be particularly valuable given the historical trends of bear markets, and even leaving that aside the general rate of return from stocks is greater than the mortgage interest rates so in theory the leverage should pay for itself.
Clever? Foolish? Savvy? Madness? Am I missing something obvious?
Of course Boris can do what he likes , and my support for him is not so much over brexit but that he is liberal in his views and does care and will show compassion as demonstrated recently about his comments on society
I hear my neighbours have got visitors round for about the sixth time since the "lockdown" started.
Call the police on them, they're in flagrant breach of the law now.
Balanced against the fact these are his neighbours and people he may have to live alongside for years to come. Sometimes a blind eye is the lesser of two evils
I've lived next to dickheads like his neighbours before. The rozzers to turn up still in these circs.
This may be a questionable decision, but I'm going to ask strangers on the internet for investment advice:
I am a very fortunate 30 year old. I own a modest home outright, worth roughly £200k or a tad more. I have a secure job paying just under £30k before tax. I rent out two rooms of my house to earn an additional £10k before tax (and the lodger tax break makes that minimal).
As such I am able to invest about a grand a month into pension and another grand a month into a stocks and shares ISA. However, I wonder if the recent and predicted market falls mean now would be a good time to leverage myself slightly to boost my share investments.
I'm considering taking out a £50k mortgage against my house and upping my share purchases to £3k per month for 17 months. I'd pay the mortgage off at £1k per month, meaning from month 18 to month 55 I'd be investing much less into my stocks and shares ISA. Essentially, I'd have brought forward 50 months of investments into 17 months now, at the cost of roughly £5k in transaction costs and interest.
The logic being that investments over the next year or two may be particularly valuable given the historical trends of bear markets, and even leaving that aside the general rate of return from stocks is greater than the mortgage interest rates so in theory the leverage should pay for itself.
Clever? Foolish? Savvy? Madness? Am I missing something obvious?
No comment on your situation, but I'm certainly front loading my ISA contributions this year.
Steady as she goes. Would be interesting to see someone fit the announced death daily figures on to the hospital admissions data released to get a rough feeling for time lag.
Also, over the past couple of days, the fraction of positive tests has steadied (and is slightly increasing) and the number of new cases identified is staying pretty constant. If the number of daily fatalities stays in the 700-900 range over the next week and the new cases remain around 4000 that would be quite a 'positive' result. Let's hope it does stabilise in this range - still no guarantees of course...
PS Note that the number of people tested almost certainly does not equal the number of tests, since some require multiple tests. I don't think the government have been good at communicating this aspect at all...
Every reason to believe actual new infections peaked about 2 weeks ago given the 7 day average lag to first symptoms, and similar time period to then get to requiring hospital admission. Limitations of testing volumes and who it's aimed at is always going to make it a very weak very lagged indicator. If the recent rise in the death rate is due to the steeper rise in hospitalisation around the 25th to 28th, we could be looking at peak deaths for the back end of next week and hopefully signs of plateau or decline over the Easter weekend
Judging by the numbers from other countries, plateauing is a long and painful process. And those are countries with stricter measures than the UK.
Yes we'll have to see - most of the obvious places to look so far have a high concentration in one places followed by peaks in the rest of the country later (i.e. Lombardy & Madrid) which inevitably lengthen out the curve. Whilst London is ahead of the game here it's nowhere near that status yet, with the Midlands hospital admissions dipping on the same day, so that may mean we are in for a more severe, but shorter, peak if the whole country is at a similar place on the curve.
Yes, I think that's a fair point. Still, I worry about whether our lockdown is too lax. When I went out for a walk before 7 this morning I couldn't believe the number of cars on the road.
I hear my neighbours have got visitors round for about the sixth time since the "lockdown" started.
Call the police on them, they're in flagrant breach of the law now.
Balanced against the fact these are his neighbours and people he may have to live alongside for years to come. Sometimes a blind eye is the lesser of two evils
I've lived next to dickheads like his neighbours before. The rozzers to turn up still in these circs.
So have I, merely pointing out that antaganostic neighbours can be a real pain as they always seem to find out who called the police. Bins knocked over, cars keyed, tires deflated that sort of thing
Comments
2) Red Robin
3) Magnolia as you said
4) Heather (I think)
5) ? too many
6) Don't know but I have it also
Just wanted to say Hancock signed off the letter in massive, primary school handwriting as just "Matt". It was actually rather endearing!
Admissions in England on the 31st were 10767
The 1st it was 11589 and the 2nd it was 11309
So only 1 day of decrease.
Regarding 1), I was asking about the overall (not just Covid) death figures. Can anyone else point to how these are collected and reported (and with what time lag) ?
You’re right that Covid deaths are extremely likely to be significantly underreported. From this morning:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/04/suspected-coronavirus-outbreak-at-glasgow-care-home-after-13-die
You do need more random tests if you're going to try to measure how it is spreading at different rates around the country rather than if you just want to focus on the national prevalence but we are still talking numbers that are small enough to be done relatively quickly even at current testing capacity.
See: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-3-april-2020
Slide 4
https://twitter.com/zbinney_NFLinj/status/1245789689279401997
Will have a look at the others.
3,735 more positive results.
PS Note that the number of people tested almost certainly does not equal the number of tests, since some require multiple tests. I don't think the government have been good at communicating this aspect at all...
https://twitter.com/egbert_pengwu/status/1246423735063773185?s=21
https://www.iam-media.com/copyright/open-covid-pledge-saturday-opinion
And in the process slays Farage, IDS, Corbyn, Mcdonnell and Abbott that is my dream result
We are all on the centre left now folks
Why would a conservative want their party, who has an 80 seat majority, to merge with Labour just because they’ve replaced a hard socialist with a left wing politician? Utterly bizarre
I am not suggesting merging.
Co-operation on covid and brexit makes sense
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1246431761007026176?s=20
I am a very fortunate 30 year old. I own a modest home outright, worth roughly £200k or a tad more. I have a secure job paying just under £30k before tax. I rent out two rooms of my house to earn an additional £10k before tax (and the lodger tax break makes that minimal).
As such I am able to invest about a grand a month into pension and another grand a month into a stocks and shares ISA. However, I wonder if the recent and predicted market falls mean now would be a good time to leverage myself slightly to boost my share investments.
I'm considering taking out a £50k mortgage against my house and upping my share purchases to £3k per month for 17 months. I'd pay the mortgage off at £1k per month, meaning from month 18 to month 55 I'd be investing much less into my stocks and shares ISA. Essentially, I'd have brought forward 50 months of investments into 17 months now, at the cost of roughly £5k in transaction costs and interest.
The logic being that investments over the next year or two may be particularly valuable given the historical trends of bear markets, and even leaving that aside the general rate of return from stocks is greater than the mortgage interest rates so in theory the leverage should pay for itself.
Clever? Foolish? Savvy? Madness? Am I missing something obvious?
Of course Boris can do what he likes , and my support for him is not so much over brexit but that he is liberal in his views and does care and will show compassion as demonstrated recently about his comments on society