OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
Anyway, an early outing for Moth-trap News. Warmer, cloudier, flat calm = moths. 103 moths of 18 species, including 5 new for the year. Highlight was a Streamer.
Nothing a good can of fly spray wouldn't sort out.
Harsh. There are 2,600 species of moths in the UK. Only 2 of which will eat your clothes! (And they are both tiny. Basically, if you can tell its a moth, it's not going to eat your clothes. Some bits of your garden? Maybe not so safe....)
The pic you posted yesterday (or day before) looked like a 100ft wingspan moth on a farmer's field. I'm guessing it was actually about 1in on a table.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
Today is a good day for the Labour Party. Potentially the first really good day for 10 or even 13 years.
dream on
Not a dream. Reality. All three are better than Corbyn. Two out of three are better than Milliband and potentially better than Brown.
Rejoice!
youre back to the window dressing argument.. What policies has Starmer got to attract voters in the areas Labour has lost ?
Leaders matter. The policies will follow. Rejoice!
Yes they matter, and Starmer is a grey suit versus the colourful Boris.
I struggle to see how a metropolitan Londony type will connect with a welder in Stoke.
Labour's old reliable argument "not a Tory" got blown out of the water at the last eslection, what is going to replace it ?
You’re not seeing the big picture. From today Corbyn is not leader of the Labour Party. Nothing determined the result of the last election more than that. This is the necessary first step to any progress.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
Movie watch party ? Everyone is different though so what might work for one couple perhaps won't for t'other
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
Yes, there is something obvious.
How about writing poetry? Or maybe even a song. Either together, or one could do lyrics then the other the tune. Then switch roles for next time (if it works).
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
Is Corbyn's legacy going to be BoZo delivering his agenda...
Covid-19 legacy will be. Nothing to do with Corbyn.
Even before Covid-19 Boris had lifted Labour's "near-miss" ge2017 platform, and looking at the FT shot shown in the tweet, we see it also includes treating public services as assets, which I'd predicted the Saj (remember him?) would lift from McDonnell to avoid the balance sheet blowing up. Boris won by being a better Corbyn than Jeremy Corbyn, not by being a better Theresa May or David Cameron.
Ah, you might say, but Boris has a record of saying things he does not mean in order to get elected.
So you may be right it is Covid-19 and nothing to do with Corbyn that he actually follows through on what was promised.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
Yes, there is something obvious.
How about writing poetry? Or maybe even a song. Either together, or one could do lyrics then the other the tune. Then switch roles for next time (if it works).
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
Though perhaps I need a good beginners guide to identification. While megafauna are magnificent, and I am grateful to have seen such wonders as sperm whales and black Rhino in the wild, the microfauna of our own isles has real potential.
Tis a beautiful spring day here, and life seems particularly precious at the moment. Time to get out in that garden, and admire the lambs in my field.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
I would hold back on competitive moth trapping for a little longer...
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
What’s wrong with the pub and a few drinks? It’s been enough for the last 20 years!
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
I would hold back on competitive moth trapping for a little longer...
Things could still go badly wrong for the Tories but they have the armour of the experts behind them. The sight of thick journalists trying to make debating points when they don't know what they're talking about is unedifying.
In normal times the UK Left can rely on the media to be their "armed wing". I wonder if the current terrible performance of the BBC et al might blunt its effectiveness for Labour in future?
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
Interesting! That seems to be a paywalled article - do you know if there's a version elsewhere of the same story?
They have a working antibody test?
If you perform an ELISA that is sensitive and specific enough, but it is not scalable and needs to be performed in a specialised lab.
What we (and no-where else) do not have is a mass-use antibody test that is sensitive / specific enough.
Though when you have up to 70% of a given population displaying antibodies, the absolute accuracy of a test is far less relevant than it would be for a population where only 5% had developed immunity.
For a really poor test which was only 70% accurate, you’re talking about perhaps an additional 10% of false positives in the first case, versus nearly 30% of false positives in the second.
Anyway, an early outing for Moth-trap News. Warmer, cloudier, flat calm = moths. 103 moths of 18 species, including 5 new for the year. Highlight was a Streamer.
Nothing a good can of fly spray wouldn't sort out.
Harsh. There are 2,600 species of moths in the UK. Only 2 of which will eat your clothes! (And they are both tiny. Basically, if you can tell its a moth, it's not going to eat your clothes. Some bits of your garden? Maybe not so safe....)
The pic you posted yesterday (or day before) looked like a 100ft wingspan moth on a farmer's field. I'm guessing it was actually about 1in on a table.
The hawkmoths can be 3 or 4 inches across. But yeah, we haven't yet had a sighting of Mothra in Devon!
Interesting! That seems to be a paywalled article - do you know if there's a version elsewhere of the same story?
They have a working antibody test?
I thought the challenge was one people could self conduct at home to a sufficient degree of accuracy - presumably in a blood donation setting the testing is a bit more rigorous
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
² Yes, there is something obvious.
Pointing her to politicalbetting.com ?
Watching Zulu obviously.
We are watching a series on Sky about the North Yorkshire Moors railway . Its a repeat but interesting nevertheless for both the guys and the gals.
In some cases, patients have been told not to come into hospital as they could catch the virus, although they may already have had it. Apparently, some private hospitals may be used as cancer treatment centres.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
In some cases, patients have been told not to come into hospital as they could catch the virus, although they may already have had it. Apparently, some private hospitals may be used as cancer treatment centres.
Yes, I have a friend of a friend due for a mastectomy; she's been told her cancer is very slow growing and she can wait until the autumn for it.
The virtual race has already been run and the winner decided which is probably why (at least some) bookies are limiting states to a tenner. All bookies are offering the same prices. All profits go to the NHS Covid-19 charity.
10/1 Any Second Now has attracted the early money (in from 25/1); has there been a leak? If not then I'd look at 18/1 Potters Corner who is in form, having won his last two races, and who has previously won at this distance, which very few have (in fact I think it is only him and previous real Grand National winner Tiger Roll).
"But public health officials have one more trick up their sleeves to dampen down the fears over the virus. The country is also about to start releasing figures that show how many people died "from" coronavirus rather than died "with" coronavirus, as the British statistics show."
On topic, David is right about what the new leader should prioritise.
As for the actual politics, the Conservatives are going to struggle for a generation to say that anything is too expensive. The political debate is going to be around value for money, not the price tag itself.
"But public health officials have one more trick up their sleeves to dampen down the fears over the virus. The country is also about to start releasing figures that show how many people died "from" coronavirus rather than died "with" coronavirus, as the British statistics show."
Good luck with that endeavour. For many it will be like working out who wielded the death blow on the Orient Express.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
We're doing "fight club". Not exactly a date tho.
Shhhh!
You've been told.....
There are plenty of Citizen Science projects to become involved in. They give you the training necessary and then your results are used by professional researchers and scientists.
The original GalaxyZoo project provided data from the public that was as accurate as that done by professional astronomers and the dataset generated has produced several papers on Galactic Morphology and other topics.
There are a range of projects from astrophysics to examining ship's logs from the sailing era
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
We're doing "fight club". Not exactly a date tho.
I cleaned and honed my Fairbairn-Sykes this morning.
It seems to translate as swab testing. Is there a reliable antibody test out yet?
Hancock seemed to suggest on Thursday that Porton Down had one in use, but that was the first that I had heard of it.
They’re just doing very small scale, but widespread, community blood sampling, and taking samples back to their lab. Of course even small scale testing like this would fairly quickly pick up if 50-70% of the population were displaying antibodies. Distinguishing between lower levels of infection is much more difficult.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
I’m sure what the public want to hear now is some know it all wealthy Labour lawyer who isn’t hurting at all due to the crisis, scold us all that we should have all been locked up earlier and stricter and ergo for longer.
We are all gagging to hear that.
Why would he be saying that? The lockdown is what happened when the government failed to do less disruptive things earlier and ran out of runway.
Why are you locked up? Because your government fucked up.
I know you’re consistently very keen on this line because, well, Japan. But virtually every country in the world is currently locked up. Including countries with very few disclosed cases. And many in Europe weeks before us. And even some of your favoured East Asian countries are now locking down.
So the idea, i’m afraid, that taking some different course would have avoided the present lockdown (which remains less extreme and more bearable than the lockdowns in many parts of Europe and the world) really is fantasy IMO. Regardless of Japan.
The only seriously pushed criticism in this country (excluding the herd immunity, let it rip crowd) is why lockdown was delayed so long. Not, why did it happen at all.
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore. They have all managed so far to substantially slow the growth of the virus without the drastic lockdowns that become necessary when you let it get out of control. It may yet turn out not to be enough, and they may end up resorting to more drastic responses like the British one, but if they do it'll be after gaining valuable time. A complete lockdown is not the only policy option.
Look, we already know a lot about how this thing transmits. We know that some situations are high-risk, and others pose some risk. Removing all the situations that pose *some* risk is extremely disruptive. Removing the situations that pose *high* risk is also disruptive, but much less so.
Now, you may be right that this is not really understood in Britain. A lot of people on this website really seem to assume that there's nothing between "ask people to wash their hands" and "nobody is allowed to leave their house any more", and maybe that's representative of British voters. But think about what happens next. You can't stay in your house forever. Sooner or later the general lockdown is going to have to end. But when it ends the virus will still be there. You can't just go back to normal - if you do it'll just get out of control again, and you'll go straight back into lockdown. What's going to have to happen is exactly what's already been happening in East Asia: Life goes on, but with restrictions, designed to keep the world turning but keep the virus in its box. And when that happens, people are going to wonder why they weren't doing it in the first place.
Your missing my main point. Which is that with the arguable exception of your small group, MOST govts have introduced lockdowns. Many with far far fewer declared cases than here. They had just as much warning as us, and time to observe “what works”. But they still went down the lockdown route. They have not chosen your preferred policy prescription. The U.K. is not out of line on this.
There will be little political mileage in the U.K. from a new Labour leader trying to argue that the U.K. should have been able to avoid a lockdown by acting differently. Not when a lockdown of varying degrees is the consensus approach in most of the World. And ours is more bearable than most.
You're right that it's not out of line with the US or the rest of Europe, they mostly screwed up in the same way: They left it too late until all they could do was a complete lockdown. But that doesn't mean it wasn't a monster failure or that the voters will think it's fine - Gordon Brown didn't get let off the hook for spending too much before the Lehman Shock just because other European countries had also spent too much before the Lehman Shock.
And although it probably didn't alter the big picture much, the British added a few extra flourishes of their own, like the abortive herd immunity thing and the lie about shaking hands with infected people.
The British government made very serious mistakes, with catastrophic consequences on a scale not seen in most voters' lifetimes. Other governments made similar mistakes, that's true. But the opposition would be mad not to try to hold the government it opposes accountable for them.
Even best case scenario there would be mistakes which an opposition will be obliged to point out. And we appear to be a long way off a best case scenario.
The public, during an economic catastrophe, however necessary, are likely to focus on the negatives once the crisis has abated somewhat
Interesting! That seems to be a paywalled article - do you know if there's a version elsewhere of the same story?
They have a working antibody test?
If you perform an ELISA that is sensitive and specific enough, but it is not scalable and needs to be performed in a specialised lab.
What we (and no-where else) do not have is a mass-use antibody test that is sensitive / specific enough.
Though when you have up to 70% of a given population displaying antibodies, the absolute accuracy of a test is far less relevant than it would be for a population where only 5% had developed immunity.
For a really poor test which was only 70% accurate, you’re talking about perhaps an additional 10% of false positives in the first case, versus nearly 30% of false positives in the second.
That's true. I guess the random sampling of the population that is currently being performed (as alluded to by PHE last week) will provide information on this. Will be very interesting to have these results; and also to see what happens in Sweden of course!
Interesting! That seems to be a paywalled article - do you know if there's a version elsewhere of the same story?
They have a working antibody test?
If you perform an ELISA that is sensitive and specific enough, but it is not scalable and needs to be performed in a specialised lab.
What we (and no-where else) do not have is a mass-use antibody test that is sensitive / specific enough.
Though when you have up to 70% of a given population displaying antibodies, the absolute accuracy of a test is far less relevant than it would be for a population where only 5% had developed immunity.
For a really poor test which was only 70% accurate, you’re talking about perhaps an additional 10% of false positives in the first case, versus nearly 30% of false positives in the second.
It depends how it's being used, doesn't it?
For random testing, an imperfect test with error rates that we can estimate is going to give useful information on the general level of immunity in the population.
For decisions about individual behaviour, you need a test with a higher degree of accuracy, for which the result can be verified rather than relying on trust.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
Get themselves embroiled?
Which government ministers are too incompetent and need replacing from the opposition benches?
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
We're doing "fight club". Not exactly a date tho.
I cleaned and honed my Fairbairn-Sykes this morning.
Good to see you’re intending to avoid unnecessarily burdening A&E... ... It is essential that the blade have a sharp stabbing point and good cutting edges, because an artery torn through (as against a clean cut) tends to contract and stop the bleeding. If a main artery is cleanly severed, the wounded man will quickly lose consciousness and die....
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
Get themselves embroiled?
Which government ministers are too incompetent and need replacing from the opposition benches?
Today is a good day for the Labour Party. Potentially the first really good day for 10 or even 13 years.
dream on
Not a dream. Reality. All three are better than Corbyn. Two out of three are better than Milliband and potentially better than Brown.
Rejoice!
youre back to the window dressing argument.. What policies has Starmer got to attract voters in the areas Labour has lost ?
Leaders matter. The policies will follow. Rejoice!
Yes they matter, and Starmer is a grey suit versus the colourful Boris.
I struggle to see how a metropolitan Londony type will connect with a welder in Stoke.
Labour's old reliable argument "not a Tory" got blown out of the water at the last eslection, what is going to replace it ?
You’re not seeing the big picture. From today Corbyn is not leader of the Labour Party. Nothing determined the result of the last election more than that. This is the necessary first step to any progress.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
Get themselves embroiled?
Which government ministers are too incompetent and need replacing from the opposition benches?
Should have added a smiley, obvs
I can see why it is the Prime Minister’s interests to have no opposition. I can even see why it might be in Labour’s interests to accept the offer. It is not, however, in the country’s interests for the government to go unscrutinised by a loyal opposition.
Is Corbyn's legacy going to be BoZo delivering his agenda...
Covid-19 legacy will be. Nothing to do with Corbyn.
I think it frankly bizarre how often the argument gets made that responses to a very very unusual situation prove a proposed response in normal times has been proven right. Even if supportive of that approach generally.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
We're doing "fight club". Not exactly a date tho.
Shhhh!
You've been told.....
There are plenty of Citizen Science projects to become involved in. They give you the training necessary and then your results are used by professional researchers and scientists.
The original GalaxyZoo project provided data from the public that was as accurate as that done by professional astronomers and the dataset generated has produced several papers on Galactic Morphology and other topics.
There are a range of projects from astrophysics to examining ship's logs from the sailing era
I think relaxing the lockdown a couple of weeks after the plateau is attained translates to a more gradual form of the original herd immunity concept - probably with several percent of the population being infected every week for several months - still without any hard evidence about how long immunity will last, of course.
Nice for those who are lucky enough to be able to sit it out. Not so good for the others, including NHS staff.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
Its just a gesture. Theres not much benefit to either in actually doing it. So presumably it's to demonstrate a willingness to talk with them directly and hopefully for them to focus opposition to important stuff not every day politics. Which both sides are basically doing anyway .
Is Corbyn's legacy going to be BoZo delivering his agenda...
Covid-19 legacy will be. Nothing to do with Corbyn.
I think it frankly bizarre how often the argument gets made that responses to a very very unusual situation prove a proposed response in normal times has been proven right. Even if supportive of that approach generally.
True. But against that, a similar national effort in response to a crisis - WWII - led to a Labour government. The two things are not the same, obviously. But the overturning of normal politics leads to unpredictable outcomes.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
The End Times.....
But I suspect you are near the truth. One thing you missed is the structure of the govt.s compensation / support scheme for Small Business is such that, for many, it is inaccessible. I noted the other day that word of this had reached The Snake and he issued instructions to the financial system that Things Must Change. Whether they change quickly enough (or sufficiently) remains to be seen.
People are great problem solvers. I expect, in the short term, an increase in barter / favours / money-under-the-counter / black market trading because it is quick, easy and answers immediate needs
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
Get themselves embroiled?
Which government ministers are too incompetent and need replacing from the opposition benches?
Should have added a smiley, obvs
I can see why it is the Prime Minister’s interests to have no opposition. I can even see why it might be in Labour’s interests to accept the offer. It is not, however, in the country’s interests for the government to go unscrutinised by a loyal opposition.
I doubt work together means let's have no scrutiny. As much as governments would love that at any time, there is a middle ground between normal operations and full partnership.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
I’d agree with that (though I liked David’s article). Starmer’s task is to turn Labour back into a party capable of practical and pragmatic politics. If that is possible.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
I think relaxing the lockdown a couple of weeks after the plateau is attained translates to a more gradual form of the original herd immunity concept - probably with several percent of the population being infected every week for several months - still without any hard evidence about how long immunity will last, of course.
Nice for those who are lucky enough to be able to sit it out. Not so good for the others, including NHS staff.
I kind of thought the whole idea sans vaccine was stretching out herd immunity, since we cannot lockdown for 2 years or whatever so its about building up and spreading capacity.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
Well that's me thoroughly depressed. We look to have had a particular poor fight against the virus and we're inevitably and irretrievably ruined.
Today is a good day for the Labour Party. Potentially the first really good day for 10 or even 13 years.
dream on
Not a dream. Reality. All three are better than Corbyn. Two out of three are better than Milliband and potentially better than Brown.
Rejoice!
youre back to the window dressing argument.. What policies has Starmer got to attract voters in the areas Labour has lost ?
Leaders matter. The policies will follow. Rejoice!
Yes they matter, and Starmer is a grey suit versus the colourful Boris.
I struggle to see how a metropolitan Londony type will connect with a welder in Stoke.
Labour's old reliable argument "not a Tory" got blown out of the water at the last eslection, what is going to replace it ?
You’re not seeing the big picture. From today Corbyn is not leader of the Labour Party. Nothing determined the result of the last election more than that. This is the necessary first step to any progress.
Rejoice.
Yuri Andropov has replaced Leonid Brezhnev.
This is really more like Gorbachev replacing Chernenko.
That isn’t however the happiest of parallels given as Robert Service commented, ‘If Lenin was the USSR’s midwife, Gorbachev was its gravedigger.’
We haven't got much to compare the current situation with in terms of economic impact. The analogues that are being cited such as war, the great depression and 2008 financial systems crash are all very different.
My tentative model is that government and central bank emergency actions are like life support. I don't think that there will be bad long term economic consequences like long term unemployment or raging inflation as log as bold measures are taken that apply for the duration of the social/medical crises and are then removed fairly rapidly.
The current UK measures are good but there will need to be more. I suggest that for three months all mortgages, loans (apart from government bonds) and rents (commercial and residential) are suspended with no interest or debt accruing. It would need primary legislation.
I think relaxing the lockdown a couple of weeks after the plateau is attained translates to a more gradual form of the original herd immunity concept - probably with several percent of the population being infected every week for several months - still without any hard evidence about how long immunity will last, of course.
Nice for those who are lucky enough to be able to sit it out. Not so good for the others, including NHS staff.
I kind of thought the whole idea sans vaccine was stretching out herd immunity, since we cannot lockdown for 2 years or whatever so its about building up and spreading capacity.
Maybe it is, though I don't think that's the impression that's been given publicly. The impression I've got is that the strategy is to keep infections at a low level through counter-measures during the pre-vaccine period.
To get herd immunity, something like two thirds of the population will need to be infected. I don't think spreading it out over a longer period will have that much impact on the fatality rate. I reckon you would be talking about a quarter of a million deaths.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
Yes but. Politics is the law of comparative advantage. If people want to sweep the government away it has to be in favour of something else. If Labour spend time putting themselves on the very short list of parties that most normal people could conceivably vote for if they had to they will have done themselves, and the poor old voter and centrist democracy a favour.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
We're doing "fight club". Not exactly a date tho.
Shhhh!
You've been told.....
There are plenty of Citizen Science projects to become involved in. They give you the training necessary and then your results are used by professional researchers and scientists.
The original GalaxyZoo project provided data from the public that was as accurate as that done by professional astronomers and the dataset generated has produced several papers on Galactic Morphology and other topics.
There are a range of projects from astrophysics to examining ship's logs from the sailing era
I've been planning to commission an oil painting of my (died last November) mum from a very old friend who is very firmly locked down by the Govt, and even more firmly by his wife. This has persuaded me to bring it forward and get it underway now.
Is this interesting amusements with a partner, or in reading groups and so on?
There are any numbers of interesting courses online.
Or what about virtual City Breaks?
Or learn the birds, if you can't face the 2500 species of moth. The RSPB have a very good Smartphone App.
Or do some dancing?
For exercise read the entire back archive of Val Policella Toynbee? :-D You get to jump up and down in fury.
I'm planning to listen to some archives of the Food Programme on R4 - 700 editions available.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
Well that's me thoroughly depressed. We look to have had a particular poor fight against the virus and we're inevitably and irretrievably ruined.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
² Yes, there is something obvious.
Pointing her to politicalbetting.com ?
Watching Zulu obviously.
We are watching a series on Sky about the North Yorkshire Moors railway . Its a repeat but interesting nevertheless for both the guys and the gals.
Wor Lass gets a bit fed up with me shouting out 'Dreadful!' every time the Class 37 or 26 appears.
I think relaxing the lockdown a couple of weeks after the plateau is attained translates to a more gradual form of the original herd immunity concept - probably with several percent of the population being infected every week for several months - still without any hard evidence about how long immunity will last, of course.
Nice for those who are lucky enough to be able to sit it out. Not so good for the others, including NHS staff.
I kind of thought the whole idea sans vaccine was stretching out herd immunity, since we cannot lockdown for 2 years or whatever so its about building up and spreading capacity.
Maybe it is, though I don't think that's the impression that's been given publicly. The impression I've got is that the strategy is to keep infections at a low level through counter-measures during the pre-vaccine period.
To get herd immunity, something like two thirds of the population will need to be infected. I don't think spreading it out over a longer period will have that much impact on the fatality rate. I reckon you would be talking about a quarter of a million deaths.
Deaths from the virus, I mean.
I don't know how many other deaths from the NHS being unable to treat other conditions for months on end.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
The End Times.....
But I suspect you are near the truth. One thing you missed is the structure of the govt.s compensation / support scheme for Small Business is such that, for many, it is inaccessible. I noted the other day that word of this had reached The Snake and he issued instructions to the financial system that Things Must Change. Whether they change quickly enough (or sufficiently) remains to be seen.
People are great problem solvers. I expect, in the short term, an increase in barter / favours / money-under-the-counter / black market trading because it is quick, easy and answers immediate needs
The only thing that will work is immediate grants. Sort of like what was being offered to pubs and restaurants but on a much bigger scale. There are 2 kinds of insolvency, cash flow and balance sheet. Loans help with cash flow but at the cost of balance sheet. The money is never coming back anyway.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
If they're invited to meet, they'll be doing the usual kind of things people do in meetings. Sitting in a room together, shaking hands, coughing and so on.
I think I would politely decline that invitation for now. Given Johnson has Covid-19, offering to meet the new Labour leader sounds like an attempt to use biological warfare.
On topic, David is right about what the new leader should prioritise.
As for the actual politics, the Conservatives are going to struggle for a generation to say that anything is too expensive. The political debate is going to be around value for money, not the price tag itself.
Surely that is a good thing? Politicians have been accused for generations of knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing. Indeed, it seems to have been a feature of UK govts for quite some time that things are done in a miserly fashion or held or delayed to the point where the Return on Investment is miniscule.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
If they're invited to meet, they'll be doing the usual kind of things people do in meetings. Sitting in a room together, shaking hands, coughing and so on.
Hardly and a silly comment
Meetings are now always done on line, indeed even the cabinet meet this way
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
The End Times.....
But I suspect you are near the truth. One thing you missed is the structure of the govt.s compensation / support scheme for Small Business is such that, for many, it is inaccessible. I noted the other day that word of this had reached The Snake and he issued instructions to the financial system that Things Must Change. Whether they change quickly enough (or sufficiently) remains to be seen.
People are great problem solvers. I expect, in the short term, an increase in barter / favours / money-under-the-counter / black market trading because it is quick, easy and answers immediate needs
The only thing that will work is immediate grants. Sort of like what was being offered to pubs and restaurants but on a much bigger scale. There are 2 kinds of insolvency, cash flow and balance sheet. Loans help with cash flow but at the cost of balance sheet. The money is never coming back anyway.
Comments
If only they'd picked a pretty woman.
Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/04/02/news/coronavirus_in_lombardia_positivi_ma_asintomatici_il_caso_dei_donatori_di_sangue_di_castiglione_d_adda-252956628/?refresh_ce
Politics isn't about logic or science. It's what about you hope or want to be true.
Political science? A complete oxymoron.
Ah, you might say, but Boris has a record of saying things he does not mean in order to get elected.
So you may be right it is Covid-19 and nothing to do with Corbyn that he actually follows through on what was promised.
Though perhaps I need a good beginners guide to identification. While megafauna are magnificent, and I am grateful to have seen such wonders as sperm whales and black Rhino in the wild, the microfauna of our own isles has real potential.
Tis a beautiful spring day here, and life seems particularly precious at the moment. Time to get out in that garden, and admire the lambs in my field.
Hancock seemed to suggest on Thursday that Porton Down had one in use, but that was the first that I had heard of it.
What we (and no-where else) do not have is a mass-use antibody test that is sensitive / specific enough.
https://twitter.com/MollyOCath/status/1242465390933901314
For a really poor test which was only 70% accurate, you’re talking about perhaps an additional 10% of false positives in the first case, versus nearly 30% of false positives in the second.
40-45% 10/1
45-50% 5/2
50-55% 6/4
55%-60% 7/2
60% 6/1
https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1246188035932336132?s=21
In some cases, patients have been told not to come into hospital as they could catch the virus, although they may already have had it. Apparently, some private hospitals may be used as cancer treatment centres.
You've been told.....
10/1 Any Second Now has attracted the early money (in from 25/1); has there been a leak? If not then I'd look at 18/1 Potters Corner who is in form, having won his last two races, and who has previously won at this distance, which very few have (in fact I think it is only him and previous real Grand National winner Tiger Roll).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/03/coronavirus-swedish-experiment-could-prove-britain-wrong/
"But public health officials have one more trick up their sleeves to dampen down the fears over the virus. The country is also about to start releasing figures that show how many people died "from" coronavirus rather than died "with" coronavirus, as the British statistics show."
As for the actual politics, the Conservatives are going to struggle for a generation to say that anything is too expensive. The political debate is going to be around value for money, not the price tag itself.
The original GalaxyZoo project provided data from the public that was as accurate as that done by professional astronomers and the dataset generated has produced several papers on Galactic Morphology and other topics.
There are a range of projects from astrophysics to examining ship's logs from the sailing era
https://www.zooniverse.org/projects
and since you are into birds and bugs...
https://www.zooniverse.org/projects?discipline=nature&page=1&status=live
Of course even small scale testing like this would fairly quickly pick up if 50-70% of the population were displaying antibodies. Distinguishing between lower levels of infection is much more difficult.
The public, during an economic catastrophe, however necessary, are likely to focus on the negatives once the crisis has abated somewhat
For random testing, an imperfect test with error rates that we can estimate is going to give useful information on the general level of immunity in the population.
For decisions about individual behaviour, you need a test with a higher degree of accuracy, for which the result can be verified rather than relying on trust.
... It is essential that the blade have a sharp stabbing point and good cutting edges, because an artery torn through (as against a clean cut) tends to contract and stop the bleeding. If a main artery is cleanly severed, the wounded man will quickly lose consciousness and die....
I hope she does reasonably. Not perfect, of course, but she had some ideas.
Says someone online, probably.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
Surely some sort of punishment would be more appropriate than a reward?
Nice for those who are lucky enough to be able to sit it out. Not so good for the others, including NHS staff.
The two things are not the same, obviously. But the overturning of normal politics leads to unpredictable outcomes.
But I suspect you are near the truth. One thing you missed is the structure of the govt.s compensation / support scheme for Small Business is such that, for many, it is inaccessible. I noted the other day that word of this had reached The Snake and he issued instructions to the financial system that Things Must Change. Whether they change quickly enough (or sufficiently) remains to be seen.
People are great problem solvers. I expect, in the short term, an increase in barter / favours / money-under-the-counter / black market trading because it is quick, easy and answers immediate needs
Starmer’s task is to turn Labour back into a party capable of practical and pragmatic politics. If that is possible.
That isn’t however the happiest of parallels given as Robert Service commented, ‘If Lenin was the USSR’s midwife, Gorbachev was its gravedigger.’
My tentative model is that government and central bank emergency actions are like life support. I don't think that there will be bad long term economic consequences like long term unemployment or raging inflation as log as bold measures are taken that apply for the duration of the social/medical crises and are then removed fairly rapidly.
The current UK measures are good but there will need to be more. I suggest that for three months all mortgages, loans (apart from government bonds) and rents (commercial and residential) are suspended with no interest or debt accruing. It would need primary legislation.
To get herd immunity, something like two thirds of the population will need to be infected. I don't think spreading it out over a longer period will have that much impact on the fatality rate. I reckon you would be talking about a quarter of a million deaths.
Is this interesting amusements with a partner, or in reading groups and so on?
There are any numbers of interesting courses online.
Or what about virtual City Breaks?
Or learn the birds, if you can't face the 2500 species of moth. The RSPB have a very good Smartphone App.
Or do some dancing?
For exercise read the entire back archive of Val Policella Toynbee? :-D You get to jump up and down in fury.
I'm planning to listen to some archives of the Food Programme on R4 - 700 editions available.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
I don't know how many other deaths from the NHS being unable to treat other conditions for months on end.
Perhaps we should rename him Borgia Johnson?
Meetings are now always done on line, indeed even the cabinet meet this way