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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s new leader now has 2-3 months to prepare. How does he – or she – make use of that time?
Not since the Conservatives’ 2001 leadership contest ended on September 11 that year has such an election been so overshadowed by wider events. Whoever succeeds Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader later today will likely find it impossible to take the fight immediately to the Tories. Parliament won’t sit for weeks and when it does return might well be in a muted form, the country as a whole is in a state of suspended animation, and criticising the government in the middle of a crisis – before the full facts or outcome are known – is a politically precarious business.
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This is the period when the narrative gets set. The government botched the response.
Attack attack attack.
Taiwan
Singapore
South Korea
China
Japan
We are all gagging to hear that.
Why are you locked up? Because your government fucked up.
So the idea, i’m afraid, that taking some different course would have avoided the present lockdown (which remains less extreme and more bearable than the lockdowns in many parts of Europe and the world) really is fantasy IMO. Regardless of Japan.
The only seriously pushed criticism in this country (excluding the herd immunity, let it rip crowd) is why lockdown was delayed so long. Not, why did it happen at all.
It's almost as though having power within the Labour Party is considered more important to these people than having real power in the country.
1) Start saying that the government should have shut the borders in February. Politicians love paradox, and this would be a great chance for Starmer to show that he recognizes the downside to people jetting round the world.
2) As per @Pulpstar , point out that it is blue-collareded workers who are the ones being sacrificed in terms of building up herd immunity.
This is fun from last night: The 96% is entirely meaningless without the very precise context.
@eadric shares 90% of his genetic material with his next door's cat, but I wonder how many times he has caught cat flu?
Look, we already know a lot about how this thing transmits. We know that some situations are high-risk, and others pose some risk. Removing all the situations that pose *some* risk is extremely disruptive. Removing the situations that pose *high* risk is also disruptive, but much less so.
Now, you may be right that this is not really understood in Britain. A lot of people on this website really seem to assume that there's nothing between "ask people to wash their hands" and "nobody is allowed to leave their house any more", and maybe that's representative of British voters. But think about what happens next. You can't stay in your house forever. Sooner or later the general lockdown is going to have to end. But when it ends the virus will still be there. You can't just go back to normal - if you do it'll just get out of control again, and you'll go straight back into lockdown. What's going to have to happen is exactly what's already been happening in East Asia: Life goes on, but with restrictions, designed to keep the world turning but keep the virus in its box. And when that happens, people are going to wonder why they weren't doing it in the first place.
Where you're correct is that they did it very early and therefore were able to be a little less strict later.
Edit: Maybe you're thinking of Hong Kong, I think they had something close???
There will be little political mileage in the U.K. from a new Labour leader trying to argue that the U.K. should have been able to avoid a lockdown by acting differently. Not when a lockdown of varying degrees is the consensus approach in most of the World. And ours is more bearable than most.
The preferred “lines of attack” will all be on preparedness. Underinvestment. Lack of PPE. Lack of ventilator capacity. Not “why did we end up in lockdown?”.
And the comparisons will be with Europe. Not Japan. Because people don’t know anything about Japan.
And although it probably didn't alter the big picture much, the British added a few extra flourishes of their own, like the abortive herd immunity thing and the lie about shaking hands with infected people.
The British government made very serious mistakes, with catastrophic consequences on a scale not seen in most voters' lifetimes. Other governments made similar mistakes, that's true. But the opposition would be mad not to try to hold the government it opposes accountable for them.
South Korea went into mini lockdown for a long weekend from 21st to 23rd February. Basically everyone was asked to stay at home. Then the authorities carried out a massive deep clean including spraying streets. The city of Daegu remained under more stringent measures for longer.
Hong Kong was onto this lightning fast, sealing borders partially and later fully. They also screened everyone on arrival: something the UK is STILL not doing - gobsmacking.
Singapore has been strict from the outset.
Did you know, for example, that you're forbidden from going on public transport in Hong Kong, Thailand etc. without wearing a mask?
I think my point is that we might have the wrong impression from what you posted earlier that those countries you listed are taking a Swedish approach. They really aren't. The term 'social distancing' was coined by South Korea. These countries introduced tough measures very early on.
I guess what we could say is that because they clamped down very early with strict measures they have avoided the necessity for lengthy total lockdown.
As for the UK ...
They can ramp up the social stigmatisation as much as they like but we aren't under an enforced lockdown.
Thank goodness.
Japan (and East Asia) are a long way away. People don’t know much about their people. Or their Govts. Or how their societies are structured or operate. The Govt’s reputation is not going to rest on how we fared relative to Japan. However successful or otherwise their approach might be. And the opposition won’t try to use Japan as a basis to attack the Govt as a result.
Where I came in was that I said the opposition could criticize the government for botching the initial response, and @TGOHF666 responded that the voters wouldn't be impressed by being told they should have been in lockdown for longer, and I've been trying to explain that there were plenty of policy options that don't consist of a longer lockdown.
Read @Mysticrose, s/he puts it better...
https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1246263357587501056?s=19
That's how crap Corbyn was.
Sometimes a battle is a better route.
And they do exist in the UK. We found a lovely and completely deserted one on the isle of wight.
This is the period when the narrative gets set. The government botched the response.
Attack attack attack.
I disagree. The real attack mileage will be in what the government does about recouping the hundreds of billions spent at a time when tax income is much, much lower. There are going to be a lot of unpopular choices made. There will be plenty of ammunition.
Some of the bravest and most passionate democrats in the world at the moment are ethnically Chinese.
Joshua Wong is one of my heroes.
It isn't for the USA, IMHO.
Not I think decisions made over the course of a few weeks and following expert advice. And I suspect it will be very hard to find examples of Govt decisions being taken in defiance of expert advice. Arguably in fact I suspect that future inquiries may find that mistakes were made due to politicians NOT overruling expert advice, and too much reliance/and lack of challenge on modelling. Not enough use of the precautionary principle.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1246188035932336132?s=20
The governments problem is that accepting that means the beach on Sunday will be packed. All these various activities only work if a handful of people do them. Which means saying no but turning a blind eye.
In second place.....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong
Having tens of thousands of spare ICU beds must be cheaper than the current ever expanding rescue package.
Sorry Labour, you got the tumble dryer. Never mind - it's the speed boat next time....honest.
Let's see if that ends today. One suspects no. Keir has what it takes to be Labour leader - a penis.
Or a Theresa May.
https://www.lastampa.it/topnews/primo-piano/2020/04/02/news/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-e-un-caso-di-studio-il-70-dei-donatori-di-sangue-e-positivo-1.38666481/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1246287986943279106
‘Indeed, you won the elections, but I won the count.’
Rejoice!
Sunak's rescue package does make it harder to argue against higher public spending if the BoE are picking up most of the debt at little cost to the exchequer. But maybe it only works this time because most other western economies are doing the same so Sterling doesnt take such a big hit.
The next election takes place in a different world, post Brexit, post coronavirus. Rather than nitpicking over PPE and technicalities of lockdown, Labour needs to do more strategic thinking. What does an election winning social democratic platform look like in the 21st Century? Who should our international partners and friends be? China or the EU, Trumpistan or Saudi? How do we shift to a green economy and maintain living standards?
Is Corbyn's legacy going to be BoZo delivering his agenda...
No.
I struggle to see how a metropolitan Londony type will connect with a welder in Stoke.
Labour's old reliable argument "not a Tory" got blown out of the water at the last eslection, what is going to replace it ?
I feel sorry for some of the clowns. When the experts bite back, it looks like they're trying to discuss relativity with a slug. They might be wrong but at least they know what they're talking about.
PPE availability? An own goal, but more bureaucratic centralisation than individual incompetence at the top. Viral RNA resting? Useful, but expanding it rapidly was always going to be difficult. And it's usefulness was always limited by the time delay from sampling to results. Even worse, a negative result is only valid for the day of sampling. Two days later, he or she could have contracted the disease.
Even if the antibody test is delayed, that can't be blamed on the government.
I think that's why the Tories have a massive lead in the polls. It will subside when we return to normal. John Ashworth has avoided the 'complain first, think later' trap, and even Andy Burnham has been measured. It's been left to the media to make fools of themselves.
There are two main types of moth traps - the big bright mercury vapour traps, and the lower power actinic traps. Actinics are better in winter and early spring it seems, and are ideal if you have neighbours who are going to object to a bloody bright light in your back garden. However, the MV lamps get much better results on warmer nights (and perversely, if you have drizzle or fog it seems). There are a number of types of trap, and then the decision is mains (fine for trapping a garden) or battery (if you really get the bug and want to start trapping further afield) - and how much you want to spend. I run a couple of the big Robinson traps, but the bulk of the moths actually come to a sheet I fix behind the trap.
That said, the big mercury vapour lamps are being phased out and replaced with LEDs. SO far these have variable success, but are likely to become the norm in the next 10 years.
The people I buy my kit from are ALS:
https://www.angleps.com/mothtraps.php
I came to moths via birds, having pretty much run out of new birds to see in the UK. We rented a cottage in Devon and I was curious about the drab moths flying around the woodshed. Turns out they were nationally rare - and I had found the largest number in the UK.
After that, I got hooked. 10 years later, I have got to the point where I submit the largest number of records of anyone in Devon.... (I tend not to do anything by halves!) Incredibly rewarding, but with 2,600 species, there is a lot to learn. That said, the field guides are excellent and the internet is a fabulous resource for checking what you have. There are local sites such as Hants Moths Flying Tonight which shows, week by week, the moths you can expect to see:
https://www.hantsmoths.org.uk/flying_tonight.php
Then there are various facebook groupsto join to help you ID your finds. There are still a few po-faced scientist types who look down on those of us who have fun along the way. Mostly though people are very happy to share knowledge and learn as we go. The macro moths are generally straight forward to get to grips with - the micro moths much less so. Many of these require dissection to get to species level. Again, there are people who can help with that. Your county moth recorder will probably do it if you get something that is a bit strokey-beard in its uncertainty.
As well as the species that will breed locally, you will through the summer and autumn have a chance of scarce migrants from Europe, sometimes from north Africa. Like this Striped Hawkmoth:
Feel free to Vanilla mail me to ask about anything. And enjoy it if you do start up. You will be genuinely amazed at the variety of moths that you can attract in the average garden.
Rejoice.