We haven't got much to compare the current situation with in terms of economic impact. The analogues that are being cited such as war, the great depression and 2008 financial systems crash are all very different.
My tentative model is that government and central bank emergency actions are like life support. I don't think that there will be bad long term economic consequences like long term unemployment or raging inflation as log as bold measures are taken that apply for the duration of the social/medical crises and are then removed fairly rapidly.
The current UK measures are good but there will need to be more. I suggest that for three months all mortgages, loans (apart from government bonds) and rents (commercial and residential) are suspended with no interest or debt accruing. It would need primary legislation.
That's the sort of thing I had in mind, but I think it's too late now. Although the government furlough scheme looks likely to save millions of jobs, millions will still be lost. When we come blinking out into the light from our quarantine these jobless will have much less income and there will be a lack of demand. The bounce-back in the economy will be to a lower level - then you will see job losses among those who are currently furloughed, as their employers adjust to the lower level of demand.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
The End Times.....
But I suspect you are near the truth. One thing you missed is the structure of the govt.s compensation / support scheme for Small Business is such that, for many, it is inaccessible. I noted the other day that word of this had reached The Snake and he issued instructions to the financial system that Things Must Change. Whether they change quickly enough (or sufficiently) remains to be seen.
People are great problem solvers. I expect, in the short term, an increase in barter / favours / money-under-the-counter / black market trading because it is quick, easy and answers immediate needs
The only thing that will work is immediate grants. Sort of like what was being offered to pubs and restaurants but on a much bigger scale. There are 2 kinds of insolvency, cash flow and balance sheet. Loans help with cash flow but at the cost of balance sheet. The money is never coming back anyway.
I agree. A bit like Student Loans
More of them might of course be repaid if repayments hadn’t been in the hands of Kevin O’Cockup for the last 28 years.
I’m not just talking about the US, or Europe (although those are where the comparisons will be made). What about Australia? Or Africa? Or South America? Or....
Japan (and East Asia) are a long way away. People don’t know much about their people. Or their Govts. Or how their societies are structured or operate. The Govt’s reputation is not going to rest on how we fared relative to Japan. However successful or otherwise their approach might be. And the opposition won’t try to use Japan as a basis to attack the Govt as a result.
No, they won't say "why didn't we do what Japan did", they'll focus on the specifics that caused the virus to spread, like "why did the government let people travel unimpeded from a raging pandemic in Madrid to wander around the bars of Liverpool?"
Where I came in was that I said the opposition could criticize the government for botching the initial response, and @TGOHF666 responded that the voters wouldn't be impressed by being told they should have been in lockdown for longer, and I've been trying to explain that there were plenty of policy options that don't consist of a longer lockdown.
I said at the time letting the Liverpool v Madrid game go ahead was disastrous. A day or so ago the Director of Health in Liverpool has come out and said it was a big mistake. At the time several PB posters couldn't see tany problem with it. You know who you are!)
We are where we are because the government nor the people took it seriously in the early weeks when a lot could have been done to mitigate the spread. The warning signs were there but we didn't heed them. Medics from Italy were frantically telling us to pull our fingers out.
I also agree with EiT when he says that there were plenty of options in between "wash your hands" and "don't come out of your house". Given that we clearly didn't (and still don't) have anything like adequate testing capacity or even sufficient PPE equipment slowing the spread could have been crucial
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
The End Times.....
But I suspect you are near the truth. One thing you missed is the structure of the govt.s compensation / support scheme for Small Business is such that, for many, it is inaccessible. I noted the other day that word of this had reached The Snake and he issued instructions to the financial system that Things Must Change. Whether they change quickly enough (or sufficiently) remains to be seen.
People are great problem solvers. I expect, in the short term, an increase in barter / favours / money-under-the-counter / black market trading because it is quick, easy and answers immediate needs
The only thing that will work is immediate grants. Sort of like what was being offered to pubs and restaurants but on a much bigger scale. There are 2 kinds of insolvency, cash flow and balance sheet. Loans help with cash flow but at the cost of balance sheet. The money is never coming back anyway.
I agree. A bit like Student Loans
More of them might of course be repaid if repayments hadn’t been in the hands of Kevin O’Cockup for the last 28 years.
OT Can anyone think of any good “date like” activities to do whilst in lockdown?
So far we’ve done “book club” - reading a book chapter by chapter and discussing it, and “art club” drawing the same subject matter and comparing with much hilarity.
We're doing "fight club". Not exactly a date tho.
Shhhh!
You've been told.....
There are plenty of Citizen Science projects to become involved in. They give you the training necessary and then your results are used by professional researchers and scientists.
The original GalaxyZoo project provided data from the public that was as accurate as that done by professional astronomers and the dataset generated has produced several papers on Galactic Morphology and other topics.
There are a range of projects from astrophysics to examining ship's logs from the sailing era
I've been planning to commission an oil painting of my (died last November) mum from a very old friend who is very firmly locked down by the Govt, and even more firmly by his wife. This has persuaded me to bring it forward and get it underway now.
Is this interesting amusements with a partner, or in reading groups and so on?
There are any numbers of interesting courses online.
Or what about virtual City Breaks?
Or learn the birds, if you can't face the 2500 species of moth. The RSPB have a very good Smartphone App.
Or do some dancing?
For exercise read the entire back archive of Val Policella Toynbee? :-D You get to jump up and down in fury.
I'm planning to listen to some archives of the Food Programme on R4 - 700 editions available.
One other thing that is interesting is cookery - you can probably get some of the things that are normally exported, and help the economy.
I’m not just talking about the US, or Europe (although those are where the comparisons will be made). What about Australia? Or Africa? Or South America? Or....
Japan (and East Asia) are a long way away. People don’t know much about their people. Or their Govts. Or how their societies are structured or operate. The Govt’s reputation is not going to rest on how we fared relative to Japan. However successful or otherwise their approach might be. And the opposition won’t try to use Japan as a basis to attack the Govt as a result.
No, they won't say "why didn't we do what Japan did", they'll focus on the specifics that caused the virus to spread, like "why did the government let people travel unimpeded from a raging pandemic in Madrid to wander around the bars of Liverpool?"
Where I came in was that I said the opposition could criticize the government for botching the initial response, and @TGOHF666 responded that the voters wouldn't be impressed by being told they should have been in lockdown for longer, and I've been trying to explain that there were plenty of policy options that don't consist of a longer lockdown.
I said at the time letting the Liverpool v Madrid game go ahead was disastrous. A day or so ago the Director of Health in Liverpool has come out and said it was a big mistake. At the time several PB posters couldn't see tany problem with it. You know who you are!)
We are where we are because the government nor the people took it seriously in the early weeks when a lot could have been done to mitigate the spread. The warning signs were there but we didn't heed them. Medics from Italy were frantically telling us to pull our fingers out.
I also agree with EiT when he says that there were plenty of options in between "wash your hands" and "don't come out of your house". Given that we clearly didn't (and still don't) have anything like adequate testing capacity or even sufficient PPE equipment slowing the spread could have been crucial
Any evidence that Liverpool fans or staff have or have not a higher rate of infection ?
I’m not just talking about the US, or Europe (although those are where the comparisons will be made). What about Australia? Or Africa? Or South America? Or....
Japan (and East Asia) are a long way away. People don’t know much about their people. Or their Govts. Or how their societies are structured or operate. The Govt’s reputation is not going to rest on how we fared relative to Japan. However successful or otherwise their approach might be. And the opposition won’t try to use Japan as a basis to attack the Govt as a result.
No, they won't say "why didn't we do what Japan did", they'll focus on the specifics that caused the virus to spread, like "why did the government let people travel unimpeded from a raging pandemic in Madrid to wander around the bars of Liverpool?"
Where I came in was that I said the opposition could criticize the government for botching the initial response, and @TGOHF666 responded that the voters wouldn't be impressed by being told they should have been in lockdown for longer, and I've been trying to explain that there were plenty of policy options that don't consist of a longer lockdown.
It’s all nuance. In most people’s minds shutting down football=lockdown. So a football match wasn’t cancelled. So Cheltenham wasn’t cancelled. Nor was every football match in the country the preceding weekend. The arguments are about why the Govt wait until Thursday to do something they could/should have done 5 days earlier. I’m not saying you might not be right. I’m saying it is unlikely to be the focus of political attack. And people will be more concerned for the future than the past. The past is for another day.
Every football match the previous weekend did not involve 3000 fans travelling to the UK from the virus hotspot of Madrid.
Parliament won’t sit for weeks and when it does return might well be in a muted form, the country as a whole is in a state of suspended animation, and criticising the government in the middle of a crisis – before the full facts or outcome are known – is a politically precarious business.
There's no plausible full set of facts or outcomes that's going to show it was a good idea to faff around for weeks, let the Madrid game and Cheltenham go ahead and make up weird lies about shaking hands with infected people at a press conference where you were supposed to be telling people how to avoid getting infected. I mean, there was arguably the "herd immunity" thing which may still yet turn out to have been the right way to go but that argument ended when they went into lockdown.
This is the period when the narrative gets set. The government botched the response.
Attack attack attack.
I can see two opportunities for Labour:
1) Start saying that the government should have shut the borders in February. Politicians love paradox, and this would be a great chance for Starmer to show that he recognizes the downside to people jetting round the world.
2) As per @Pulpstar , point out that it is blue-collareded workers who are the ones being sacrificed in terms of building up herd immunity.
I would add looking at the reality of what Sunak is offering to see whether it does actually help those affected. It all sounds good but will it help in practice? And what happens afterwards. The new leader really needs some good economic and commercial brains looking at this issue.
Sunak may seem invincible at the moment but there are a lot of weaknesses in his proposals and this is where a competent Labour economic team should be focusing.
On topic, David is right about what the new leader should prioritise.
As for the actual politics, the Conservatives are going to struggle for a generation to say that anything is too expensive. The political debate is going to be around value for money, not the price tag itself.
Surely that is a good thing? Politicians have been accused for generations of knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing. Indeed, it seems to have been a feature of UK govts for quite some time that things are done in a miserly fashion or held or delayed to the point where the Return on Investment is miniscule.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
Herd immunity got a very bad press and was dropped like a hot potato but the truth is that it is that or a vaccine. This virus is not going away. I am also troubled about @Foxy's comment the other day that many who survive this virus have permanently damaged lungs. I agree that the longer term health consequences of this are yet to play out.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
He obviously feels it's time to start spreading the blame a bit wider.
And difficult for leaders to reject as this will be well received by the public
In New Zealand, MPs have set up a new select committee, chaired by the Leader of the Opposition, that will meet multiple times a week via video link to scrutinise government decisions, while parliament there is dissolved.
These must indeed be febrile times because I find a David H piece on a Saturday morning with which I am broadly in agreement - thank you once again, David.
I'm also interested in David L's response - it has so many echoes of what was written here and elsewhere in the autumn of 2008. That shock was meant to lead to mass unemployment, business failures on a massive scale and unprecedented political upheaval.
Governments did what Governments always do when there is a big problem - throw money at it or rather do whatever it takes (yes, I know) to provide confidence. That confidence (in the form of QE and other action) did its job and while there were casualties life returned to a new normality.
Just as Brown and Darling before them Johnson and Sunak know we are over the cliff and they must make sure we land on a bed of super-sprung mattresses rather than a bunch of spikes. It's back to confidence - we may look down, we may be screaming but if we see or believe the mattresses are waiting at the bottom most of us know we will be all right.
Every football match the previous weekend did not involve 3000 fans travelling to the UK from the virus hotspot of Madrid.
Especially since some weeks (days?) prior, returnees on rescue flights from the Far East where detained at Arrowepark Hospital in Liverpool for 14 days. Yet football fans were not? Nor were returnees from Northern Italy - why not?
People at the time were asking these questions. This is not hindsight.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
Yep, absolutely everything is going to change. There is no way back to how things were. However, as Jeremy Corbyn proved - a government can be entirely dysfunctional and still win if the opposition is considered to be a worse choice. So what Starmer gets up to does matter. He needs to be seen as a credible alternative.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
He obviously feels it's time to start spreading the blame a bit wider.
And difficult for leaders to reject as this will be well received by the public
There's rejection and then there's rejection, as indeed there is an offer and then there's an offer.
It would be quite easy for them to thank him for the offer and welcome efforts to share information and so on, and that they agree that the nation needs to look past matters of petty politics at this time, but that they feel the best thing they can do for the nation right now is to perform their role as constructive opposition.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
Herd immunity got a very bad press and was dropped like a hot potato but the truth is that it is that or a vaccine. This virus is not going away. I am also troubled about @Foxy's comment the other day that many who survive this virus have permanently damaged lungs. I agree that the longer term health consequences of this are yet to play out.
Yes - and until that vaccine is rolled out, those at risk will effectively have to live under some form of lockdown.
I learnt yesterday that my current GP practice and my new one (given that I will be stuck here for a year at least) are arguing about who should give me an asthma review. Without it no prescription and without that no inhalers which is not an optimal position to be in at such a time. I am hoping that this will get sorted on Monday. Stress is not great for asthmatics.
In some cases, patients have been told not to come into hospital as they could catch the virus, although they may already have had it. Apparently, some private hospitals may be used as cancer treatment centres.
At this moment I have 3 appointments between 10 and 30 April: a eye examination, an insulin pump consultation, and a bone marrow biopsy.
No idea what will happen.
In theory I can drop the eye exam, as I just had the enhanced Specsaver's checkup, and do the pump chat over a video link.
Not sure how I feel about the hollow hatpin insertion, but this has already been delayed twice.
>Ydoethur >FFS. >It’s KEIR Starmer. >Not Keith. Not Kier. Not Kevin.
In a way it would be interesting if RLB won. Even handpicked successors (albeit handpicked as the preferred successor was not available) can surprise those who picked them.
I’m not just talking about the US, or Europe (although those are where the comparisons will be made). What about Australia? Or Africa? Or South America? Or....
Japan (and East Asia) are a long way away. People don’t know much about their people. Or their Govts. Or how their societies are structured or operate. The Govt’s reputation is not going to rest on how we fared relative to Japan. However successful or otherwise their approach might be. And the opposition won’t try to use Japan as a basis to attack the Govt as a result.
No, they won't say "why didn't we do what Japan did", they'll focus on the specifics that caused the virus to spread, like "why did the government let people travel unimpeded from a raging pandemic in Madrid to wander around the bars of Liverpool?"
Where I came in was that I said the opposition could criticize the government for botching the initial response, and @TGOHF666 responded that the voters wouldn't be impressed by being told they should have been in lockdown for longer, and I've been trying to explain that there were plenty of policy options that don't consist of a longer lockdown.
I said at the time letting the Liverpool v Madrid game go ahead was disastrous. A day or so ago the Director of Health in Liverpool has come out and said it was a big mistake. At the time several PB posters couldn't see tany problem with it. You know who you are!)
We are where we are because the government nor the people took it seriously in the early weeks when a lot could have been done to mitigate the spread. The warning signs were there but we didn't heed them. Medics from Italy were frantically telling us to pull our fingers out.
I also agree with EiT when he says that there were plenty of options in between "wash your hands" and "don't come out of your house". Given that we clearly didn't (and still don't) have anything like adequate testing capacity or even sufficient PPE equipment slowing the spread could have been crucial
The only thing to do at this moment of crisis is complete unity by the big two parties. In that spirit, they should immediately announce that from now on they should be known as Keir Johnson and Boris Starmer.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
He obviously feels it's time to start spreading the blame a bit wider.
And difficult for leaders to reject as this will be well received by the public
There's rejection and then there's rejection, as indeed there is an offer and then there's an offer.
It would be quite easy for them to thank him for the offer and welcome efforts to share information and so on, and that they agree that the nation needs to look past matters of petty politics at this time, but that they feel the best thing they can do for the nation right now is to perform their role as constructive opposition.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
Assume Boris has had a heads up that Sir Keith has won then - and not RLB.
FFS.
It’s KEIR Starmer.
Not Keith. Not Kier. Not Kevin.
KEIR.
But just as I call the PM Johnson, so I will continue to call the new LOTO by their surname.
You don’t get enough Keiths these days. You know Where are with a Keith. Or an Alan, a Geoff, or a Ted. Those are all the names of a reliable plumber, or a man who runs one of those hardware stores that stocks everything behind the counter.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
I'm no Conservative but this seems perfectly sensible and I suspect there have been (as there are) back channels of communication throughout this crisis.
The notion all political parties and their leaders are always adversarial is one that the partisans like but isn't borne out by reality or the political process.
Personal relationships notwithstanding (and the Coalition was only possible because of the strength of the Cameron-Clegg relationship), political leaders of all stripes do communicate as and when and especially at times of crisis.
Starmer (if he navigates the sea of electoral hazard successfully) will be easier than Corbyn for Johnson to deal with and I suspect Johnson and the other leaders will be able to work together surprisingly constructively and positively.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
Assume Boris has had a heads up that Sir Keith has won then - and not RLB.
FFS.
It’s KEIR Starmer.
Not Keith. Not Kier. Not Kevin.
KEIR.
But just as I call the PM Johnson, so I will continue to call the new LOTO by their surname.
How's the blood pressure this morning?
It was fine until I read that post by Mr Flashman (deceased) but now there’s a large hole in my ceiling.
How about "The wealthy lawyer Sir K KCB QC MP" ?
You’ve missed out the surname altogether there.
My father once got annoyed by some body, I forget which, including lots of letters after the names of those in their communications, even if just a BA, that he wrote back adding on DOT ADI (Department of Transport Approved Driving Instructor) in an attempt to mock. They wrote back to Mr Dotadi.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
Get themselves embroiled?
Which government ministers are too incompetent and need replacing from the opposition benches?
Starmer for Patel looks an obvious swap but is clearly a money maker for the bookies with the odds offered. Hunt should be brought back from the backbenches too, though Hancock is doing a good job at health right now I think.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
Herd immunity got a very bad press and was dropped like a hot potato but the truth is that it is that or a vaccine. This virus is not going away. I am also troubled about @Foxy's comment the other day that many who survive this virus have permanently damaged lungs. I agree that the longer term health consequences of this are yet to play out.
Yes - and until that vaccine is rolled out, those at risk will effectively have to live under some form of lockdown.
I learnt yesterday that my current GP practice and my new one (given that I will be stuck here for a year at least) are arguing about who should give me an asthma review. Without it no prescription and without that no inhalers which is not an optimal position to be in at such a time. I am hoping that this will get sorted on Monday. Stress is not great for asthmatics.
I know people whose anti-depressants have been not only renewed but increased by telephone. I really can't see why we would not do the same for asthmatics at this time.
Taking this morning to reflect on what an utterly bizarre decision it is for Rayner to become deputy leader. It's a total non-job with no track record of leading to anything better. Very strange choice for someone who was on a trajectory to become leader.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
The End Times.....
But I suspect you are near the truth. One thing you missed is the structure of the govt.s compensation / support scheme for Small Business is such that, for many, it is inaccessible. I noted the other day that word of this had reached The Snake and he issued instructions to the financial system that Things Must Change. Whether they change quickly enough (or sufficiently) remains to be seen.
People are great problem solvers. I expect, in the short term, an increase in barter / favours / money-under-the-counter / black market trading because it is quick, easy and answers immediate needs
Sunak’s big mistake is to make help available through banks via loans. The help should be grants and directly. It’s a misdiagnosis of the problem since, as you and I and others have said, the lost income is never coming back. The help is too indirect. Banks have sought to take advantage. And it plays into a perception that Tories’ first instinct is to help banks rather than those actually affected. That last point is, to me, a point of vulnerability which an intelligent Labour opposition would exploit.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
Yep, absolutely everything is going to change. There is no way back to how things were. However, as Jeremy Corbyn proved - a government can be entirely dysfunctional and still win if the opposition is considered to be a worse choice. So what Starmer gets up to does matter. He needs to be seen as a credible alternative.
I agree and Starmer is certainly a credible if somewhat uninspiring alternative. Labour make a bit step forward today but their destiny is not in their own hands.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
The notion all political parties and their leaders are always adversarial is one that the partisans like but isn't borne out by reality or the political process.
That's certainly true, and it's why I hate the lazy refrain of 'Oppositions oppose' as if in itself it explains opposition to a specific measure, when they do not in fact always oppose. Certainly it is their job, but they still choose when and how to oppose and need to justify it to some degree, just as while governments govern, they still have to justify how they are governing.
But it's not like a government of national unity is in the offing, so it should be an easy thing to respond to.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
Assume Boris has had a heads up that Sir Keith has won then - and not RLB.
FFS.
It’s KEIR Starmer.
Not Keith. Not Kier. Not Kevin.
KEIR.
But just as I call the PM Johnson, so I will continue to call the new LOTO by their surname.
You don’t get enough Keiths these days. You know Where are with a Keith. Or an Alan, a Geoff, or a Ted. Those are all the names of a reliable plumber, or a man who runs one of those hardware stores that stocks everything behind the counter.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
Not scrutinise the government’s actions?
Governments would always want that. Obviously they don't and won't get it. He probably hopes they can cut it a little slack compared to normal. Which is likely already the case. I suspect people are reading more into what he is going to be offering and asking for than will be the case.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
Herd immunity got a very bad press and was dropped like a hot potato but the truth is that it is that or a vaccine. This virus is not going away. I am also troubled about @Foxy's comment the other day that many who survive this virus have permanently damaged lungs. I agree that the longer term health consequences of this are yet to play out.
Yes - and until that vaccine is rolled out, those at risk will effectively have to live under some form of lockdown.
I learnt yesterday that my current GP practice and my new one (given that I will be stuck here for a year at least) are arguing about who should give me an asthma review. Without it no prescription and without that no inhalers which is not an optimal position to be in at such a time. I am hoping that this will get sorted on Monday. Stress is not great for asthmatics.
As a fellow sufferer I sympathise. However you should be able to find a nearby pharmacy who will sell you a blue Ventolin/Salbutamol reliever inhaler if necessary. Sadly GP practices have a poor reputation for arguing about this sort of thing.
And good morning everyone. Hope those who have gardens can enjoy them today! Sympathies to those who live in flats or similar residences
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
Herd immunity got a very bad press and was dropped like a hot potato but the truth is that it is that or a vaccine. This virus is not going away. I am also troubled about @Foxy's comment the other day that many who survive this virus have permanently damaged lungs. I agree that the longer term health consequences of this are yet to play out.
Yes - and until that vaccine is rolled out, those at risk will effectively have to live under some form of lockdown.
I learnt yesterday that my current GP practice and my new one (given that I will be stuck here for a year at least) are arguing about who should give me an asthma review. Without it no prescription and without that no inhalers which is not an optimal position to be in at such a time. I am hoping that this will get sorted on Monday. Stress is not great for asthmatics.
I know people whose anti-depressants have been not only renewed but increased by telephone. I really can't see why we would not do the same for asthmatics at this time.
I think the issue is more the change in GP practice. Sometimes it works; sometimes it doesn’t. My daughter has encountered similar problems.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
Yep, absolutely everything is going to change. There is no way back to how things were. However, as Jeremy Corbyn proved - a government can be entirely dysfunctional and still win if the opposition is considered to be a worse choice. So what Starmer gets up to does matter. He needs to be seen as a credible alternative.
I agree and Starmer is certainly a credible if somewhat uninspiring alternative. Labour make a bit step forward today but their destiny is not in their own hands.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
I have heard from several friends who have been made redundant this week. This is because most are on three month notice periods and, furlough or no furlough, their employers do not believe there will be work for them to come back to.
Companies are already downsizing left, right and centre and I fear we are only at the start of that particular "curve". One wonders if job losses were reported in the manner of deaths, with a headline figure ticking up daily, if people would pay more attention to the wholesale destruction of our economy.
I understand the need for a short lockdown to allow the NHS to build capacity, but ultimately, assuming we're all going to catch this sooner or later, we are all going to have to get back to work.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
Herd immunity got a very bad press and was dropped like a hot potato but the truth is that it is that or a vaccine. This virus is not going away. I am also troubled about @Foxy's comment the other day that many who survive this virus have permanently damaged lungs. I agree that the longer term health consequences of this are yet to play out.
Yes, there are a lot of people out there who seem to forget that the virus will still be out there when we come out of lockdown. And, in addition, we shall have economic catastrophe/shot public finances to deal with.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
Herd immunity got a very bad press and was dropped like a hot potato but the truth is that it is that or a vaccine. This virus is not going away. I am also troubled about @Foxy's comment the other day that many who survive this virus have permanently damaged lungs. I agree that the longer term health consequences of this are yet to play out.
Yes - and until that vaccine is rolled out, those at risk will effectively have to live under some form of lockdown.
I learnt yesterday that my current GP practice and my new one (given that I will be stuck here for a year at least) are arguing about who should give me an asthma review. Without it no prescription and without that no inhalers which is not an optimal position to be in at such a time. I am hoping that this will get sorted on Monday. Stress is not great for asthmatics.
I know people whose anti-depressants have been not only renewed but increased by telephone. I really can't see why we would not do the same for asthmatics at this time.
I think the issue is more the change in GP practice. Sometimes it works; sometimes it doesn’t. My daughter has encountered similar problems.
When changing practices from England to Wales the only way to transfer my records was to ask my English GP to print them off and physically drop them through the door Of my new practice.
I’m not just talking about the US, or Europe (although those are where the comparisons will be made). What about Australia? Or Africa? Or South America? Or....
Japan (and East Asia) are a long way away. People don’t know much about their people. Or their Govts. Or how their societies are structured or operate. The Govt’s reputation is not going to rest on how we fared relative to Japan. However successful or otherwise their approach might be. And the opposition won’t try to use Japan as a basis to attack the Govt as a result.
No, they won't say "why didn't we do what Japan did", they'll focus on the specifics that caused the virus to spread, like "why did the government let people travel unimpeded from a raging pandemic in Madrid to wander around the bars of Liverpool?"
Where I came in was that I said the opposition could criticize the government for botching the initial response, and @TGOHF666 responded that the voters wouldn't be impressed by being told they should have been in lockdown for longer, and I've been trying to explain that there were plenty of policy options that don't consist of a longer lockdown.
I said at the time letting the Liverpool v Madrid game go ahead was disastrous. A day or so ago the Director of Health in Liverpool has come out and said it was a big mistake. At the time several PB posters couldn't see tany problem with it. You know who you are!)
We are where we are because the government nor the people took it seriously in the early weeks when a lot could have been done to mitigate the spread. The warning signs were there but we didn't heed them. Medics from Italy were frantically telling us to pull our fingers out.
I also agree with EiT when he says that there were plenty of options in between "wash your hands" and "don't come out of your house". Given that we clearly didn't (and still don't) have anything like adequate testing capacity or even sufficient PPE equipment slowing the spread could have been crucial
Any evidence that Liverpool fans or staff have or have not a higher rate of infection ?
Matthew Ashton, Liverpool Council's Director of Public health is certainly suggesting that the match is the likely cause of the upturn in cases in the area. DYOR
Given the state of things in Madrid at the time it wasn't rocket science to think it was not a good idea for 3000 fans to travel over through our airports and go into pubs, restaurants, hotels and a football match. As I said some couldn't see the harm and still don't.
I’m not just talking about the US, or Europe (although those are where the comparisons will be made). What about Australia? Or Africa? Or South America? Or....
Japan (and East Asia) are a long way away. People don’t know much about their people. Or their Govts. Or how their societies are structured or operate. The Govt’s reputation is not going to rest on how we fared relative to Japan. However successful or otherwise their approach might be. And the opposition won’t try to use Japan as a basis to attack the Govt as a result.
No, they won't say "why didn't we do what Japan did", they'll focus on the specifics that caused the virus to spread, like "why did the government let people travel unimpeded from a raging pandemic in Madrid to wander around the bars of Liverpool?"
Where I came in was that I said the opposition could criticize the government for botching the initial response, and @TGOHF666 responded that the voters wouldn't be impressed by being told they should have been in lockdown for longer, and I've been trying to explain that there were plenty of policy options that don't consist of a longer lockdown.
I said at the time letting the Liverpool v Madrid game go ahead was disastrous. A day or so ago the Director of Health in Liverpool has come out and said it was a big mistake. At the time several PB posters couldn't see tany problem with it. You know who you are!)
We are where we are because the government nor the people took it seriously in the early weeks when a lot could have been done to mitigate the spread. The warning signs were there but we didn't heed them. Medics from Italy were frantically telling us to pull our fingers out.
I also agree with EiT when he says that there were plenty of options in between "wash your hands" and "don't come out of your house". Given that we clearly didn't (and still don't) have anything like adequate testing capacity or even sufficient PPE equipment slowing the spread could have been crucial
Is there a covid19 hotspot in liverpool?
One looks like it is developing according the Director of Public Health in Liverpool
Ah Jeremy Corbyn, what more is there to say. Not someone who has spent his entire career climbling the greasy pole, to be sure. Committed to his principles, certainly, and ideologically driven. Has inspired a lot of people to passionately get involved with politics. A mostly mild and agreeable manner.
But look at what his leadership has wrought. Failure, on a generational scale. Failure at the ballot box. Failure to tackle problems in the party. Failure to achieve his goals, left trying to claim victory out of defeats. Extremely vain in absorbing the absurd veneration of acolytes despite lack of achievements, far too comfortable in opposition to challenge for power. Fetishising membership at the expense of the public.
I’m not just talking about the US, or Europe (although those are where the comparisons will be made). What about Australia? Or Africa? Or South America? Or....
Japan (and East Asia) are a long way away. People don’t know much about their people. Or their Govts. Or how their societies are structured or operate. The Govt’s reputation is not going to rest on how we fared relative to Japan. However successful or otherwise their approach might be. And the opposition won’t try to use Japan as a basis to attack the Govt as a result.
No, they won't say "why didn't we do what Japan did", they'll focus on the specifics that caused the virus to spread, like "why did the government let people travel unimpeded from a raging pandemic in Madrid to wander around the bars of Liverpool?"
Where I came in was that I said the opposition could criticize the government for botching the initial response, and @TGOHF666 responded that the voters wouldn't be impressed by being told they should have been in lockdown for longer, and I've been trying to explain that there were plenty of policy options that don't consist of a longer lockdown.
I said at the time letting the Liverpool v Madrid game go ahead was disastrous. A day or so ago the Director of Health in Liverpool has come out and said it was a big mistake. At the time several PB posters couldn't see tany problem with it. You know who you are!)
We are where we are because the government nor the people took it seriously in the early weeks when a lot could have been done to mitigate the spread. The warning signs were there but we didn't heed them. Medics from Italy were frantically telling us to pull our fingers out.
I also agree with EiT when he says that there were plenty of options in between "wash your hands" and "don't come out of your house". Given that we clearly didn't (and still don't) have anything like adequate testing capacity or even sufficient PPE equipment slowing the spread could have been crucial
Any evidence that Liverpool fans or staff have or have not a higher rate of infection ?
Matthew Ashton, Liverpool Council's Director of Public health is certainly suggesting that the match is the likely cause of the upturn in cases in the area. DYOR
Given the state of things in Madrid at the time it wasn't rocket science to think it was not a good idea for 3000 fans to travel over through our airports and go into pubs, restaurants, hotels and a football match. As I said some couldn't see the harm and still don't.
And it was beyond ridiculous that we were letting people in from anywhere for a few weeks before that match.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
Assume Boris has had a heads up that Sir Keith has won then - and not RLB.
FFS.
It’s KEIR Starmer.
Not Keith. Not Kier. Not Kevin.
KEIR.
But just as I call the PM Johnson, so I will continue to call the new LOTO by their surname.
You don’t get enough Keiths these days. You know Where are with a Keith. Or an Alan, a Geoff, or a Ted. Those are all the names of a reliable plumber, or a man who runs one of those hardware stores that stocks everything behind the counter.
My daughter, an ICU nurse in Sydney, e-mailed this morning. The hospital is investing in air-supplied helmets for all staff dealing with COVID-19 patients. She didn't say if it was only for her hospital or a general diktat.
I know we have a larger population, but considering we're already spending a fortune, the running costs of cheaper options can be higher anyway. FFP3 masks may be able to do the job but face-fitting is a skilled job to do properly and they make you sweat.
Now if a journalist asked constructively … But they won't.
In a letter Boris invites all leaders to work together at this moment of national emergency
Assume Boris has had a heads up that Sir Keith has won then - and not RLB.
FFS.
It’s KEIR Starmer.
Not Keith. Not Kier. Not Kevin.
KEIR.
But just as I call the PM Johnson, so I will continue to call the new LOTO by their surname.
You don’t get enough Keiths these days. You know Where are with a Keith. Or an Alan, a Geoff, or a Ted. Those are all the names of a reliable plumber, or a man who runs one of those hardware stores that stocks everything behind the counter.
Doing what exactly? The loyal opposition performs the duty of scrutiny. What is Boris Johnson proposing that the opposition do instead of scrutinise the government’s actions?
Not scrutinise the government’s actions?
Governments would always want that. Obviously they don't and won't get it. He probably hopes they can cut it a little slack compared to normal. Which is likely already the case. I suspect people are reading more into what he is going to be offering and asking for than will be the case.
There is the difference between informed and uninformed opposition. Give the Opposition a bit more insight into the basis for the decisions being taken - and where they are being down in the basis of political choice vs expert advice.
I hate to say it because I really enjoy David's pieces but that is one of the worst examples of normalisation that I have seen for a while.
I don't think David or indeed many others have picked up on the scale of what is coming. This month the best part of 100k businesses are forecast to go bankrupt. They won't officially go bankrupt because the courts are shut but they will cease to trade and make payment of their liabilities. Unemployment is about to increase by at least 2m, probably more. The majority of coffee shops, hairdressers and small shops will never open again or, if they do it will be a closing down sale. Our high street, already in a precarious state, will be utterly devastated. Those not in the public sector or with very large employers are about to suffer a major drop in income even if they retain their employment. Many self employed will never pay the tax they will be due on last years income.
Rishi Sunak has produced, with the BoE, one of the boldest and innovative action plans in the world. It will not be enough. Nothing would be enough for the devastation that is to come. God knows what will be left to be picked up on. What is certain is that there will be mountainous government debt, probable inflation, a collapse in GDP worse than the 30s and a completely different landscape where essential businesses are kept going with a level of government support and control that McDonnell would never have dreamed of.
This may prove a world where the government that has to handle this shit storm is simply swept away as Labour was in 2010 but 5x worse. Or it may not if Boris and Rishi are seen to be doing the best that could realistically be done. Either way its really not going to matter a damn what Starmer gets up to.
That is an excellent post, which lays out how the economic catastrophe has been underplayed and/or not understood. I would add that I think that many still underestimate the health consequences of Covid-19. At some point we are going to realise that the best working hypothesis to adopt is that we are (almost) all going to get this virus at some point and the death toll will be awful.
I have heard from several friends who have been made redundant this week. This is because most are on three month notice periods and, furlough or no furlough, their employers do not believe there will be work for them to come back to.
Companies are already downsizing left, right and centre and I fear we are only at the start of that particular "curve". One wonders if job losses were reported in the manner of deaths, with a headline figure ticking up daily, if people would pay more attention to the wholesale destruction of our economy.
I understand the need for a short lockdown to allow the NHS to build capacity, but ultimately, assuming we're all going to catch this sooner or later, we are all going to have to get back to work.
Yes, we all have to live with this new and dreadful threat which will cost so many lives. I think that the government realised this early on but policy became engineered by the reality of the politics of the situation, exacerbated by the actions take by other countries.
Comments
We are where we are because the government nor the people took it seriously in the early weeks when a lot could have been done to mitigate the spread. The warning signs were there but we didn't heed them. Medics from Italy were frantically telling us to pull our fingers out.
I also agree with EiT when he says that there were plenty of options in between "wash your hands" and "don't come out of your house". Given that we clearly didn't (and still don't) have anything like adequate testing capacity or even sufficient PPE equipment slowing the spread could have been crucial
Every football match the previous weekend did not involve 3000 fans travelling to the UK from the virus hotspot of Madrid.
Sunak may seem invincible at the moment but there are a lot of weaknesses in his proposals and this is where a competent Labour economic team should be focusing.
It’s KEIR Starmer.
Not Keith. Not Kier. Not Kevin.
KEIR.
But just as I call the PM Johnson, so I will continue to call the new LOTO by their surname.
This is another option.
These must indeed be febrile times because I find a David H piece on a Saturday morning with which I am broadly in agreement - thank you once again, David.
I'm also interested in David L's response - it has so many echoes of what was written here and elsewhere in the autumn of 2008. That shock was meant to lead to mass unemployment, business failures on a massive scale and unprecedented political upheaval.
Governments did what Governments always do when there is a big problem - throw money at it or rather do whatever it takes (yes, I know) to provide confidence. That confidence (in the form of QE and other action) did its job and while there were casualties life returned to a new normality.
Just as Brown and Darling before them Johnson and Sunak know we are over the cliff and they must make sure we land on a bed of super-sprung mattresses rather than a bunch of spikes. It's back to confidence - we may look down, we may be screaming but if we see or believe the mattresses are waiting at the bottom most of us know we will be all right.
People at the time were asking these questions. This is not hindsight.
It would be quite easy for them to thank him for the offer and welcome efforts to share information and so on, and that they agree that the nation needs to look past matters of petty politics at this time, but that they feel the best thing they can do for the nation right now is to perform their role as constructive opposition.
At least my back garden's getting a spring clean. I feel sorry for those without one, especially with kids.There must be a limit for total lockdown.
I learnt yesterday that my current GP practice and my new one (given that I will be stuck here for a year at least) are arguing about who should give me an asthma review. Without it no prescription and without that no inhalers which is not an optimal position to be in at such a time. I am hoping that this will get sorted on Monday. Stress is not great for asthmatics.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html
And only that “it may be possible” to pick up infection from surfaces.
No idea what will happen.
In theory I can drop the eye exam, as I just had the enhanced Specsaver's checkup, and do the pump chat over a video link.
Not sure how I feel about the hollow hatpin insertion, but this has already been delayed twice.
>Ydoethur
>FFS.
>It’s KEIR Starmer.
>Not Keith. Not Kier. Not Kevin.
I quite like the "Bier for Kier's Career" slogan.
The notion all political parties and their leaders are always adversarial is one that the partisans like but isn't borne out by reality or the political process.
Personal relationships notwithstanding (and the Coalition was only possible because of the strength of the Cameron-Clegg relationship), political leaders of all stripes do communicate as and when and especially at times of crisis.
Starmer (if he navigates the sea of electoral hazard successfully) will be easier than Corbyn for Johnson to deal with and I suspect Johnson and the other leaders will be able to work together surprisingly constructively and positively.
I think they won that round.
Hunt should be brought back from the backbenches too, though Hancock is doing a good job at health right now I think.
But it's not like a government of national unity is in the offing, so it should be an easy thing to respond to.
And good morning everyone. Hope those who have gardens can enjoy them today! Sympathies to those who live in flats or similar residences
Sometimes it works; sometimes it doesn’t. My daughter has encountered similar problems.
- Harold MacMillan
Companies are already downsizing left, right and centre and I fear we are only at the start of that particular "curve". One wonders if job losses were reported in the manner of deaths, with a headline figure ticking up daily, if people would pay more attention to the wholesale destruction of our economy.
I understand the need for a short lockdown to allow the NHS to build capacity, but ultimately, assuming we're all going to catch this sooner or later, we are all going to have to get back to work.
Given the state of things in Madrid at the time it wasn't rocket science to think it was not a good idea for 3000 fans to travel over through our airports and go into pubs, restaurants, hotels and a football match. As I said some couldn't see the harm and still don't.
One looks like it is developing according the Director of Public Health in Liverpool
Labour web site crashed
But look at what his leadership has wrought. Failure, on a generational scale. Failure at the ballot box. Failure to tackle problems in the party. Failure to achieve his goals, left trying to claim victory out of defeats. Extremely vain in absorbing the absurd veneration of acolytes despite lack of achievements, far too comfortable in opposition to challenge for power. Fetishising membership at the expense of the public.
Terrible, terrible.
*We Are The Acronym People.
(as it used to say in Yelllow Pages)
I know we have a larger population, but considering we're already spending a fortune, the running costs of cheaper options can be higher anyway. FFP3 masks may be able to do the job but face-fitting is a skilled job to do properly and they make you sweat.
Now if a journalist asked constructively … But they won't.
But I think it is fair to say that this time they made the right choice of those available.
Eg in The Apprentice it was always "Sir Alan" that was said until it became "Lord Sugar" after Brown gave him is Lord title.
David Lammy slightly over-reacting, but he is right it is good news.