I bet Jezza can't believe he's missed out on this opportunity for massive state spending and government intervention.
Would have been manna from heaven if only it hadn't been for the pesky voters...
The genius of democracy. Truly we have dodged a bullet by not having Corbyn and Milne and co in charge of this national crisis.
Truly that is partisan nonsense. Read the Conservative manifesto and realise Boris was going to shake the magic money tree even before the corona virus was a twinkle in a pangolin's eye. Boris won by being a better Corbyn than Jeremy Corbyn, and by opposing Cameron and May.
Clearly the governments we prefer are either Labour governments implementing conservative policies or Conservative governments implementing socialist ones.
Classic British moderation and pragmatism - a great national asset, and the bane of partisan ideologues on both sides.
Net increase in currently positive cases is 4670. So almost 6000 new cases
The lock down is not working then
The worrying numbers are from Lombardy and Veneto, rather than the general ones. You see, it took 10-12 days from the lockdown announcement in Hubei, to reported new cases falling because of the significant timelage between infection and reporting.
My assumption was that we'd see a similar trend in Italy, with overall numbers peaking today or tomorrow, and Lombardy/Veneto peaking Wednesday/Thursday (as those regions had the initial lockdown).
But the current numbers don't show this. It's not clear why this is the case, but here are three options:
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
Any - or all - of these could be a factor.
Or China lied.
I can believe they are lying about the figures outside Hubei.
But inside?
If you lock everyone in their homes and weld the doors shut (as allegedly happened), then infection rates are going to drop rapidly to zero. Everyone in your family gets it... And pretty much no-one outside.
So, I find the Hubei figures plausible, as does the WHO.
I wonder what the check will be if a company claims 80% of a person's salary and that person carries on working at home?
How on earth will anyone know if person is still working?
No way round this but it'll be a goldmine for some companies!
Wouldn't the employee have to take a pay cut to £2k per month though? They might not be willing to do that, and most jobs that can be done from home will be carry a higher salary than that.
As I understand it the company will continue to pay the full salary and the government will pay up to £2000 of it if it is above £2500.
The idea has so much potential for abuse.
You understand it wrong. it's for furloughed employees that would otherwise be paid nothing.
That seems strange.
So if a company wants to keep a higher paid furloughed employee on the books, say earning £2600 a month, they will have to pay the full salary and the government won't help at all?
I don't think it is strange. The government will pay a maximum of £2,500 for any employee.
Two furloughed employees. A earns £2,000 a month, B earns £4,000 a month. A would receive £1,600 a month from HMG, B would receive £2,500
That's exactly what I originally said isn't it?
You originally said
"So if a company wants to keep a higher paid furloughed employee on the books, say earning £2600 a month, they will have to pay the full salary and the government won't help at all?"
That is not true. A furloughed employee earning £2,600 would receive nothing from the employer because they are furloughed, and £2,080 from the government.
Ah right I see.
So there's no way of the employer topping up the wages for the furloughed employee to the full amount even if they wanted to. The company has to pay the whole amount themselves or the employee gets the government amount and no more.
That is what I found strange, I would have thought the government would have wanted the company to continue to pay something for these employees as well.
That's right. It's for furloughed employees only. The requirement to have the employers pay 20% may have bankrupted too many to make it worthwhile.
No, that is wrong. Employers can (and many will in practice) pay the full 100% salary, covering the 20% themselves.:
"Government grants will cover 80% of the salary of retained workers up to a total of £2,500 a month. That’s just above the median income. And of course employers can top up salaries further if they chose to."
I bet Jezza can't believe he's missed out on this opportunity for massive state spending and government intervention.
Would have been manna from heaven if only it hadn't been for the pesky voters...
The genius of democracy. Truly we have dodged a bullet by not having Corbyn and Milne and co in charge of this national crisis.
Truly that is partisan nonsense. Read the Conservative manifesto and realise Boris was going to shake the magic money tree even before the corona virus was a twinkle in a pangolin's eye. Boris won by being a better Corbyn than Jeremy Corbyn, and by opposing Cameron and May.
Clearly the governments we prefer are either Labour governments implementing conservative policies or Conservative governments implementing socialist ones.
Something for everyone. Except the LDs...
Through history they’ve actually done pretty well in getting their policies implemented by both types of government.
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
What has been increasingly clear is that people have far more chance getting what they want in convenience stores. Which hopefully keeps the smaller businesses thriving which is good!
Yes, this panic buying is getting really annoying now. You can’t even order toilet paper three weeks ahead with Waitrose.
I haven’t been panic buying. I have just very calmly been buying more of everything.
I have been panic buying. The trick is to do it weeks before everyone else.
Like you I could see this coming and stocked up in advance
We have a reserve we do not touch and just buy enough now to see us through a week
Mind you loo rolls and soap we are eating into the reserve :-)
If you are already eating the loo rolls and soap I'm going to suggest you didn't stockpile enough.
I wonder what the check will be if a company claims 80% of a person's salary and that person carries on working at home?
How on earth will anyone know if person is still working?
No way round this but it'll be a goldmine for some companies!
Wouldn't the employee have to take a pay cut to £2k per month though? They might not be willing to do that, and most jobs that can be done from home will be carry a higher salary than that.
As I understand it the company will continue to pay the full salary and the government will pay up to £2000 of it if it is above £2500.
The idea has so much potential for abuse.
You understand it wrong. it's for furloughed employees that would otherwise be paid nothing.
That seems strange.
So if a company wants to keep a higher paid furloughed employee on the books, say earning £2600 a month, they will have to pay the full salary and the government won't help at all?
I don't think it is strange. The government will pay a maximum of £2,500 for any employee.
Two furloughed employees. A earns £2,000 a month, B earns £4,000 a month. A would receive £1,600 a month from HMG, B would receive £2,500
That's exactly what I originally said isn't it?
You originally said
"So if a company wants to keep a higher paid furloughed employee on the books, say earning £2600 a month, they will have to pay the full salary and the government won't help at all?"
That is not true. A furloughed employee earning £2,600 would receive nothing from the employer because they are furloughed, and £2,080 from the government.
Ah right I see.
So there's no way of the employer topping up the wages for the furloughed employee to the full amount even if they wanted to. The company has to pay the whole amount themselves or the employee gets the government amount and no more.
That is what I found strange, I would have thought the government would have wanted the company to continue to pay something for these employees as well.
That's right. It's for furloughed employees only. The requirement to have the employers pay 20% may have bankrupted too many to make it worthwhile.
No, that is wrong. Employers can (and many will in practice) pay the full 100% salary, covering the 20% themselves.:
"Government grants will cover 80% of the salary of retained workers up to a total of £2,500 a month. That’s just above the median income. And of course employers can top up salaries further if they chose to."
Wait hold on what's going on we're on a UK wide lockdown now ?
I wouldn't call it a lock-down. You can still go to Wetherspoons for a delicious burger, you'll just have to take it home to eat. If someone can find a legal way that pubs can do take-away pints they'll make a fortune
Ale places already do 4 pint carton take outs.
Apparently.
I have been known to use my water bottle to get a carryout to drink on the train.
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
What has been increasingly clear is that people have far more chance getting what they want in convenience stores. Which hopefully keeps the smaller businesses thriving which is good!
Yes, this panic buying is getting really annoying now. You can’t even order toilet paper three weeks ahead with Waitrose.
I haven’t been panic buying. I have just very calmly been buying more of everything.
I have been panic buying. The trick is to do it weeks before everyone else.
Like you I could see this coming and stocked up in advance
We have a reserve we do not touch and just buy enough now to see us through a week
Mind you loo rolls and soap we are eating into the reserve :-)
If you are already eating the loo rolls and soap I'm going to suggest you didn't stockpile enough.
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
For #3, yep they're testing a lot more over the last 3 days (+17k, +17k, +24k). They only broke +10k nine days ago, and as recently as the 5th it was just +3k.
Wow, that's close to a 50% increase in testing yesterday. That's got to have an impact on discovered cases.
Johnson 1000% better than yesterday but still coming across as confused. Not good enough.
Give Boris a break.
Rishi will be along in time
And they make a good combination
I appreciate there are people in Government trying to make the best of this crisis.
Johnson doesn't deserve a break, he is currently the weak link.
Other views are available
Precisely - Boris has been raising Rishi's profile for some time, then elevated him to the Chancellorship in a move that was much criticized by Boris-bashers at the time. One of Boris' strengths is identifying the right person for the job and letting them get on with it, and he should receive full credit for that - it's a much underrated political skill.
I wonder what the check will be if a company claims 80% of a person's salary and that person carries on working at home?
How on earth will anyone know if person is still working?
No way round this but it'll be a goldmine for some companies!
Wouldn't the employee have to take a pay cut to £2k per month though? They might not be willing to do that, and most jobs that can be done from home will be carry a higher salary than that.
Isnt it more a contribution to the employer. It's a lot easier to keep people on if you only have to pay 20% of their salary. I'm having daily calls to decide what to do with our employees, and subject to it being as described and no hidden catches, it sounds good
I have got to say, fair play to the government with the announcement today. I know they’ll be pored over on here, and there are still questions for the self-employed, but we needed this today.
Helicopter drop the self-employed at a similar level to the wage support for PAYE employees. The last thing we need right now is anything complicated.
Net increase in currently positive cases is 4670. So almost 6000 new cases
The lock down is not working then
The worrying numbers are from Lombardy and Veneto, rather than the general ones. You see, it took 10-12 days from the lockdown announcement in Hubei, to reported new cases falling because of the significant timelage between infection and reporting.
My assumption was that we'd see a similar trend in Italy, with overall numbers peaking today or tomorrow, and Lombardy/Veneto peaking Wednesday/Thursday (as those regions had the initial lockdown).
But the current numbers don't show this. It's not clear why this is the case, but here are three options:
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
If you assume that - given no social distancing - then cases double every two days. Well, even if just two in three people lock themselves at home, then the R0 will drop below 1.
The advantage of properly enforcing a lockdown is that R0 is driven to zero in just 30 days or so.
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
What has been increasingly clear is that people have far more chance getting what they want in convenience stores. Which hopefully keeps the smaller businesses thriving which is good!
Yes, this panic buying is getting really annoying now. You can’t even order toilet paper three weeks ahead with Waitrose.
I haven’t been panic buying. I have just very calmly been buying more of everything.
I have been panic buying. The trick is to do it weeks before everyone else.
Like you I could see this coming and stocked up in advance
We have a reserve we do not touch and just buy enough now to see us through a week
Mind you loo rolls and soap we are eating into the reserve :-)
I have had a Brexit food box for months. They all laughed. They're not laughing now.
Managed to hit gold last evening and log on to Sainsbury's just as they upload a handful of delivery times in my patch. Got one secured for tomorrow for fresh food. Limits on a lot of items.
Net increase in currently positive cases is 4670. So almost 6000 new cases
The lock down is not working then
The worrying numbers are from Lombardy and Veneto, rather than the general ones. You see, it took 10-12 days from the lockdown announcement in Hubei, to reported new cases falling because of the significant timelage between infection and reporting.
My assumption was that we'd see a similar trend in Italy, with overall numbers peaking today or tomorrow, and Lombardy/Veneto peaking Wednesday/Thursday (as those regions had the initial lockdown).
But the current numbers don't show this. It's not clear why this is the case, but here are three options:
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
If you assume that - given no social distancing - then cases double every two days. Well, even if just two in three people lock themselves at home, then the R0 will drop below 1.
The advantage of properly enforcing a lockdown is that R0 is driven to zero in just 30 days or so.
Supposedly the Chinese drove R0 down to 0.32 with their quarantine measures.
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
What has been increasingly clear is that people have far more chance getting what they want in convenience stores. Which hopefully keeps the smaller businesses thriving which is good!
The farm shops round my way are suddenly awash with customers.
Everything has changed. Everything. There is no coming back from this. We are all social democrats now. It has taken a tragic crisis, but we have the very real opportunity to create a better Britain. We must grasp it and not let it go.
I think that's right (at least for a decade or so anyway) I said last night I think the upshot of Covid-19 will be quite a significant move to the left and Labour are now odds on to win the 2024 general election.
Won't last for ever but for a decade or so people will be up for increased spending and revitalizing the public services.
That could well be true. Alternatively, the Tories are demonstrating that when necessary they are prepared to spend as big as any Corbynite, in which case what is the point of the Labour Party? Flexibility and adaptability are clearly more desirable electoral characteristics than unchanging dogma.
Net increase in currently positive cases is 4670. So almost 6000 new cases
The lock down is not working then
The worrying numbers are from Lombardy and Veneto, rather than the general ones. You see, it took 10-12 days from the lockdown announcement in Hubei, to reported new cases falling because of the significant timelage between infection and reporting.
My assumption was that we'd see a similar trend in Italy, with overall numbers peaking today or tomorrow, and Lombardy/Veneto peaking Wednesday/Thursday (as those regions had the initial lockdown).
But the current numbers don't show this. It's not clear why this is the case, but here are three options:
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
If you assume that - given no social distancing - then cases double every two days. Well, even if just two in three people lock themselves at home, then the R0 will drop below 1.
The advantage of properly enforcing a lockdown is that R0 is driven to zero in just 30 days or so.
Supposedly the Chinese drove R0 down to 0.32 with their quarantine measures.
I would expect it to drop further. If there's two of you in your apartment, one of you will get infected... then the other... then there's no one left to infect.
Everything has changed. Everything. There is no coming back from this. We are all social democrats now. It has taken a tragic crisis, but we have the very real opportunity to create a better Britain. We must grasp it and not let it go.
Give it a rest.
Give what a rest? The Chancellor has done exactly the right thing. I can only applaud him. And by doing the right thing now he has created the possibility of a better tomorrow. It's been a horrible 10 days personally and for the country, truly awful; now there is some hope.
Regrettably, I don't share your optimism at all. This is not a change in policy: it is an act of desperation to avoid economic and social collapse. It can only last for as long as the state is able to sustain it.
I think for that very reason it will necessitate a complete rethink of everything. I believe that when it happens we will end up with a far less unequal country. As someone who believes in capitalism, I also believe that social democracy is the best way to sustain it long term. I am hopeful that may become a more commonly held view.
Net increase in currently positive cases is 4670. So almost 6000 new cases
The lock down is not working then
The worrying numbers are from Lombardy and Veneto, rather than the general ones. You see, it took 10-12 days from the lockdown announcement in Hubei, to reported new cases falling because of the significant timelage between infection and reporting.
My assumption was that we'd see a similar trend in Italy, with overall numbers peaking today or tomorrow, and Lombardy/Veneto peaking Wednesday/Thursday (as those regions had the initial lockdown).
But the current numbers don't show this. It's not clear why this is the case, but here are three options:
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
Any - or all - of these could be a factor.
Probably a bit of everything. The lockdown really only started last Monday seriously so I think we should count it from that date for all provinces (only Lombardy locked down on the Friday, not Veneto I think?).
Regarding Lombardy, the new cases over the past few days (going backwards) have been 2380, 2171, 1493, 1571, 1377 (and so on). Now, the number of new cases is going up and I expect it to rise for another couple of days but, hopefully, given the lag in testing new cases and turnaround time, we should see a sign of improvements at the end of the weekend / beginning of next week.
Veneto showed a bad blip today but the number of new cases up to this evening was 206 vs 267 for the same time window yesterday (this new set of 206 cases is not included yet in the national totals, which I think are taken from 9am in the morning). Still early of course, but not indicative of a steep upward trajectory yet (though very little data to go on).
Apparently 24k test in Italy yesterday, against 17k the day before, which will also have an impact.
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
What has been increasingly clear is that people have far more chance getting what they want in convenience stores. Which hopefully keeps the smaller businesses thriving which is good!
Yes, this panic buying is getting really annoying now. You can’t even order toilet paper three weeks ahead with Waitrose.
I haven’t been panic buying. I have just very calmly been buying more of everything.
I was on a Webinar from the Data company Kantar this afternoon. There has been far less panic buying in bulk as people think. Instead the trend is more people making more shopping trips and buying more per trip. The culmulative effect is a very significant uplift on a significant number of products.
As the trend is a lot of trips buying more, as people start to eat their stock they will go back out and replenish to keep topped up. So the high demand looks set to co time as long as this does.
Net increase in currently positive cases is 4670. So almost 6000 new cases
The lock down is not working then
The worrying numbers are from Lombardy and Veneto, rather than the general ones. You see, it took 10-12 days from the lockdown announcement in Hubei, to reported new cases falling because of the significant timelage between infection and reporting.
My assumption was that we'd see a similar trend in Italy, with overall numbers peaking today or tomorrow, and Lombardy/Veneto peaking Wednesday/Thursday (as those regions had the initial lockdown).
But the current numbers don't show this. It's not clear why this is the case, but here are three options:
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
If you assume that - given no social distancing - then cases double every two days. Well, even if just two in three people lock themselves at home, then the R0 will drop below 1.
The advantage of properly enforcing a lockdown is that R0 is driven to zero in just 30 days or so.
I think your logic is faulty. Even if two in three people lock themselves up, the R0 could still be unaffected if the remainder continue to interact as normal. It would only stop when the pandemic reached a natural peak among those people. Hypothetically, in a region of 10m, if you took 6.6m out of circulation, that could still mean ~2m infections.
Thoughts: 1. The compare and contrast between the Clown Johnson and the Statesman Sunak is mind blowing. Just think about the accidental nature of his Chancellorship and what a job he is doing in a short space of time 2. Up to £2,500 of wages paid by the government is sensationally good. As is the backpayment. Will twatty companies like Cineworld now rehire their workforce? 3. They haven't fixed the business continuity loan scheme - businesses short of cash won't qualify regardless of how long it's interest free for 4. The self employed are fucked. Claim UC and Housing Benefit as we close your business down by decree. As the party supposedly of business and entrepreneurs I cannot understand how they are so blind to this 5. Claiming they will get the cash by selling gilts is brave. It'll be QE. Unlimited money of the kind that HYUFD was dead against yesterday and is dead for today. 6. They'll have to review it early next week. Landlords are going to ream people, the self employed will be absolutely broken on the wheel, the press coverage will be awful.
If you are self employed you became so knowing full well you were an entrepreneur not a salaried employee and on your own not expecting to be bailed out by government at every occasion, benefits are the most you can expecf.
As I have stated it is also not unlimited money
I would have thought that same logic might apply to people who set up a business, but they are getting bailed out.
I`ve been out - so just catching up on this.
I`m self employed. My friend does exactly the same job as me but a while ago changed from S/E to set up his own ltd company (in order to pay less tax). He is the sole employee of his ltd company - i.e. the limited company is ONLY him.
Is Sunak saying that my friend will benefit up to 80% of £2500 and I will get nothing?
I've never seen my street as busy as it was the last few days, loads of kids turning up to next door's house. So at least one of them is a teacher or head ! Postman, gardener and plumber all round at same time yesterday whilst I was on a call to the office !!
I was WFH this week and will be back in the office next week (I assume that's not yet banned ?). Probably the only person in the country doing things that way round.
Here in Not-quite Lockdown London I'm trying to get my head round what Johnson is actually saying. Casinos will have to close but betting shops won't - he ought to see all the men who congregate in the local Ladbrokes and Jennings shops in East Ham High Street,
Paddy Power are closing all their UK shops from tonight until the end of April - could have something to do with the collapse in turnover following the halting of football and horse racing - the days of people doing 112 x 1p reverse forecast doubles on traps 1 and 6 at Hackney are long gone.
The local KFC, Macdonalds and others have been takeaway only for the past few days - my local Chinese delivered my Friday evening scoff as usual while my favourite cafe in the Barking Road can presumably still cook food to go (while you wait with a dozen other people for your food).
The plans are again ill considered and open to abuse.
As for Sunak's proposals, it's great to see his inner social democrat coming through and not the constrained neo-Thatcherite New Labour nonsense, this is social democracy at its purest. Nick P can help out but I have a recollection that in Denmark and Sweden in the 70s and early 80s, if you lost your job, your unemployment benefit was based in your previous salary - you only got 2/3 then so Sunak is a real convert.
Once he puts income tax up to 60p in the £ we'll have the social democrat utopia for which we have all been secretly yearning. A big spending high taxation Conservative Government - sounds good to me.
Thoughts: 1. The compare and contrast between the Clown Johnson and the Statesman Sunak is mind blowing. Just think about the accidental nature of his Chancellorship and what a job he is doing in a short space of time 2. Up to £2,500 of wages paid by the government is sensationally good. As is the backpayment. Will twatty companies like Cineworld now rehire their workforce? 3. They haven't fixed the business continuity loan scheme - businesses short of cash won't qualify regardless of how long it's interest free for 4. The self employed are fucked. Claim UC and Housing Benefit as we close your business down by decree. As the party supposedly of business and entrepreneurs I cannot understand how they are so blind to this 5. Claiming they will get the cash by selling gilts is brave. It'll be QE. Unlimited money of the kind that HYUFD was dead against yesterday and is dead for today. 6. They'll have to review it early next week. Landlords are going to ream people, the self employed will be absolutely broken on the wheel, the press coverage will be awful.
If you are self employed you became so knowing full well you were an entrepreneur not a salaried employee and on your own not expecting to be bailed out by government at every occasion, benefits are the most you can expecf.
As I have stated it is also not unlimited money
I would have thought that same logic might apply to people who set up a business, but they are getting bailed out.
I`ve been out - so just catching up on this.
I`m self employed. My friend does exactly the same job as me but a while ago changed from S/E to set up his own ltd company (in order to pay less tax). He is the sole employee of his ltd company - i.e. the limited company is ONLY him.
Is Sunak saying that my friend will benefit up to 80% of £2500 and I will get nothing?
He will get 80% of what he has been paying as his salary. Given most firms like this keep salary as low as possible and use dividends to get the rest of the money out he could find he doesn't get too much
Thoughts: 1. The compare and contrast between the Clown Johnson and the Statesman Sunak is mind blowing. Just think about the accidental nature of his Chancellorship and what a job he is doing in a short space of time 2. Up to £2,500 of wages paid by the government is sensationally good. As is the backpayment. Will twatty companies like Cineworld now rehire their workforce? 3. They haven't fixed the business continuity loan scheme - businesses short of cash won't qualify regardless of how long it's interest free for 4. The self employed are fucked. Claim UC and Housing Benefit as we close your business down by decree. As the party supposedly of business and entrepreneurs I cannot understand how they are so blind to this 5. Claiming they will get the cash by selling gilts is brave. It'll be QE. Unlimited money of the kind that HYUFD was dead against yesterday and is dead for today. 6. They'll have to review it early next week. Landlords are going to ream people, the self employed will be absolutely broken on the wheel, the press coverage will be awful.
If you are self employed you became so knowing full well you were an entrepreneur not a salaried employee and on your own not expecting to be bailed out by government at every occasion, benefits are the most you can expecf.
As I have stated it is also not unlimited money
I would have thought that same logic might apply to people who set up a business, but they are getting bailed out.
I`ve been out - so just catching up on this.
I`m self employed. My friend does exactly the same job as me but a while ago changed from S/E to set up his own ltd company (in order to pay less tax). He is the sole employee of his ltd company - i.e. the limited company is ONLY him.
Is Sunak saying that my friend will benefit up to 80% of £2500 and I will get nothing?
He will get 80% of what he has been paying as his salary. Given most firms like this keep salary as low as possible and use dividends to get the rest of the money out he could find he doesn't get too much
Ok, but`s that`s not the point. He went limited to pay less tax and now he`s being rewarded for doing so? Seriously?
Thoughts: 1. The compare and contrast between the Clown Johnson and the Statesman Sunak is mind blowing. Just think about the accidental nature of his Chancellorship and what a job he is doing in a short space of time 2. Up to £2,500 of wages paid by the government is sensationally good. As is the backpayment. Will twatty companies like Cineworld now rehire their workforce? 3. They haven't fixed the business continuity loan scheme - businesses short of cash won't qualify regardless of how long it's interest free for 4. The self employed are fucked. Claim UC and Housing Benefit as we close your business down by decree. As the party supposedly of business and entrepreneurs I cannot understand how they are so blind to this 5. Claiming they will get the cash by selling gilts is brave. It'll be QE. Unlimited money of the kind that HYUFD was dead against yesterday and is dead for today. 6. They'll have to review it early next week. Landlords are going to ream people, the self employed will be absolutely broken on the wheel, the press coverage will be awful.
If you are self employed you became so knowing full well you were an entrepreneur not a salaried employee and on your own not expecting to be bailed out by government at every occasion, benefits are the most you can expecf.
As I have stated it is also not unlimited money
I would have thought that same logic might apply to people who set up a business, but they are getting bailed out.
I`ve been out - so just catching up on this.
I`m self employed. My friend does exactly the same job as me but a while ago changed from S/E to set up his own ltd company (in order to pay less tax). He is the sole employee of his ltd company - i.e. the limited company is ONLY him.
Is Sunak saying that my friend will benefit up to 80% of £2500 and I will get nothing?
Everything has changed. Everything. There is no coming back from this. We are all social democrats now. It has taken a tragic crisis, but we have the very real opportunity to create a better Britain. We must grasp it and not let it go.
Give it a rest.
Give what a rest? The Chancellor has done exactly the right thing. I can only applaud him. And by doing the right thing now he has created the possibility of a better tomorrow. It's been a horrible 10 days personally and for the country, truly awful; now there is some hope.
Regrettably, I don't share your optimism at all. This is not a change in policy: it is an act of desperation to avoid economic and social collapse. It can only last for as long as the state is able to sustain it.
I think for that very reason it will necessitate a complete rethink of everything. I believe that when it happens we will end up with a far less unequal country. As someone who believes in capitalism, I also believe that social democracy is the best way to sustain it long term. I am hopeful that may become a more commonly held view.
It’s great to be looking for good outcomes. But once again I simply remind you that we were awash with such predictions following the apparent collapse of untrammelled capitalism in 2008/9; but what we got was a decade of financial jiggery pokery that has avoided collapse but fuelled tremendous inequality and opened up a gulf between the generations. Meanwhile we still have governmental, business and personal finances hugely reliant upon debt.
Net increase in currently positive cases is 4670. So almost 6000 new cases
The lock down is not working then
The worrying numbers are from Lombardy and Veneto, rather than the general ones. You see, it took 10-12 days from the lockdown announcement in Hubei, to reported new cases falling because of the significant timelage between infection and reporting.
My assumption was that we'd see a similar trend in Italy, with overall numbers peaking today or tomorrow, and Lombardy/Veneto peaking Wednesday/Thursday (as those regions had the initial lockdown).
But the current numbers don't show this. It's not clear why this is the case, but here are three options:
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
If you assume that - given no social distancing - then cases double every two days. Well, even if just two in three people lock themselves at home, then the R0 will drop below 1.
The advantage of properly enforcing a lockdown is that R0 is driven to zero in just 30 days or so.
I think your logic is faulty. Even if two in three people lock themselves up, the R0 could still be unaffected if the remainder continue to interact as normal. It would only stop when the pandemic reached a natural peak among those people. Hypothetically, in a region of 10m, if you took 6.6m out of circulation, that could still mean ~2m infections.
You are correct. Sort of. And wrong. Sort of.
Fistly, the infected in the two thirds (which would be two thirds of the infections...) would not be able to infect anyone, and would have R0s of 0.
For the other third, as there would be only one third the number of people they could bump into, surely their infectiousness would also decline, unless they managed to maintain the same level of social interaction as previously.
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
I hope we remember the small local traders who are helping us out when all this is over. The fishmonger, cheese and fruit and veg shops we use are all going to deliver to us.
Amazon on the other hand took our money for a homepathic remedy I buy from them regularly as I can't source it elsewhere use and sent us an email that it was estimated they "might" deliver it in May. One of the sad aspects of this whole affair as that companies like Amazon that don't give a sh1t about the UK will make a small fortune out of us.
Thoughts: 1. The compare and contrast between the Clown Johnson and the Statesman Sunak is mind blowing. Just think about the accidental nature of his Chancellorship and what a job he is doing in a short space of time 2. Up to £2,500 of wages paid by the government is sensationally good. As is the backpayment. Will twatty companies like Cineworld now rehire their workforce? 3. They haven't fixed the business continuity loan scheme - businesses short of cash won't qualify regardless of how long it's interest free for 4. The self employed are fucked. Claim UC and Housing Benefit as we close your business down by decree. As the party supposedly of business and entrepreneurs I cannot understand how they are so blind to this 5. Claiming they will get the cash by selling gilts is brave. It'll be QE. Unlimited money of the kind that HYUFD was dead against yesterday and is dead for today. 6. They'll have to review it early next week. Landlords are going to ream people, the self employed will be absolutely broken on the wheel, the press coverage will be awful.
If you are self employed you became so knowing full well you were an entrepreneur not a salaried employee and on your own not expecting to be bailed out by government at every occasion, benefits are the most you can expecf.
As I have stated it is also not unlimited money
I would have thought that same logic might apply to people who set up a business, but they are getting bailed out.
I`ve been out - so just catching up on this.
I`m self employed. My friend does exactly the same job as me but a while ago changed from S/E to set up his own ltd company (in order to pay less tax). He is the sole employee of his ltd company - i.e. the limited company is ONLY him.
Is Sunak saying that my friend will benefit up to 80% of £2500 and I will get nothing?
He will get 80% of what he has been paying as his salary. Given most firms like this keep salary as low as possible and use dividends to get the rest of the money out he could find he doesn't get too much
Ok, but`s that`s not the point. He went limited to pay less tax and now he`s being rewarded for doing so? Seriously?
If he went from self-employed to setting up a limited company, and pays himself salary via PAYE, then he'll probably be paying more tax (including EMployer's and Employee's NI) than you, not less, as there are less allowable expenses. Much more likely is that he's paying himself a minimal salary and the rest in dividends. So he'd only get 80% of that minimal salary.
Everything has changed. Everything. There is no coming back from this. We are all social democrats now. It has taken a tragic crisis, but we have the very real opportunity to create a better Britain. We must grasp it and not let it go.
Give it a rest.
Give what a rest? The Chancellor has done exactly the right thing. I can only applaud him. And by doing the right thing now he has created the possibility of a better tomorrow. It's been a horrible 10 days personally and for the country, truly awful; now there is some hope.
Regrettably, I don't share your optimism at all. This is not a change in policy: it is an act of desperation to avoid economic and social collapse. It can only last for as long as the state is able to sustain it.
I think for that very reason it will necessitate a complete rethink of everything. I believe that when it happens we will end up with a far less unequal country. As someone who believes in capitalism, I also believe that social democracy is the best way to sustain it long term. I am hopeful that may become a more commonly held view.
It’s great to be looking for good outcomes. But once again I simply remind you that we were awash with such predictions following the apparent collapse of untrammelled capitalism in 2008/9; but what we got was a decade of financial jiggery pokery that has avoided collapse but fuelled tremendous inequality and opened up a gulf between the generations. Meanwhile we still have governmental, business and personal finances hugely reliant upon debt.
I take your point, but I don't think this is the same as 2008/09. I know those are famous last words, but it just feels very different to me.
Everything has changed. Everything. There is no coming back from this. We are all social democrats now. It has taken a tragic crisis, but we have the very real opportunity to create a better Britain. We must grasp it and not let it go.
Give it a rest.
Give what a rest? The Chancellor has done exactly the right thing. I can only applaud him. And by doing the right thing now he has created the possibility of a better tomorrow. It's been a horrible 10 days personally and for the country, truly awful; now there is some hope.
Regrettably, I don't share your optimism at all. This is not a change in policy: it is an act of desperation to avoid economic and social collapse. It can only last for as long as the state is able to sustain it.
I think for that very reason it will necessitate a complete rethink of everything. I believe that when it happens we will end up with a far less unequal country. As someone who believes in capitalism, I also believe that social democracy is the best way to sustain it long term. I am hopeful that may become a more commonly held view.
Hope is important but remember, we've basically been through all this before 12 years ago. The old model reasserted itself, nothing really changed. If anything it got worse. Social democracy needs to be reinvented, if it is going to succeed over the long term.
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
What has been increasingly clear is that people have far more chance getting what they want in convenience stores. Which hopefully keeps the smaller businesses thriving which is good!
Yes, this panic buying is getting really annoying now. You can’t even order toilet paper three weeks ahead with Waitrose.
I haven’t been panic buying. I have just very calmly been buying more of everything.
I have been panic buying. The trick is to do it weeks before everyone else.
Johnson 1000% better than yesterday but still coming across as confused. Not good enough.
Give Boris a break.
Rishi will be along in time
And they make a good combination
I appreciate there are people in Government trying to make the best of this crisis.
Johnson doesn't deserve a break, he is currently the weak link.
Other views are available
Johnson is doing OK basically because he's leaving it to others. He has been eclipsed by just about everyone else that speaks after he's finished waffling on. It's fine because he has the sense not to interfere or grandstand like the idiot across the Atlantic. Is he actually bringing anything to the party, probably not.
Everything has changed. Everything. There is no coming back from this. We are all social democrats now. It has taken a tragic crisis, but we have the very real opportunity to create a better Britain. We must grasp it and not let it go.
Give it a rest.
Actually, I think @SouthamObserver might be on to something here. This will change our country fundamentally. First, this experience will be formative - no-one under 70 has experienced anything like this before. Second, the role of the state in helping people get through it. Third, hopefully, as we get through this (which we will!) better community spirit. Financially it's going to be tough on the balance sheet, but the debt will be much better than a massive depression on the other side.
That is if excessive spending doesn't have any downsides, like massive currency depreciation and inflation.
I have to admit to being uncomfortable with this package, but I seem to be in a very small minority on here.
I'm uncomfortable, but it's the right thing to do. If you are not uncomfortable with solutions in an emergency situation then they are probably not radical enough!
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
For #3, yep they're testing a lot more over the last 3 days (+17k, +17k, +24k). They only broke +10k nine days ago, and as recently as the 5th it was just +3k.
Wow, that's close to a 50% increase in testing yesterday. That's got to have an impact on discovered cases.
Gosh - yes! That is a big factor - the actual fraction of positive cases thus declined from 31% to 25% today (more equivalent to the day before). I wonder if the fraction of positive cases is not the better statistic for understanding whether the epidemic is growing or not? Assuming they are sampling the same 'type' of people each day it would be more interpretable. @rcs1000 what do you think?
Well, that's the rub, isn't it? Assuming the sample is the same is far from certain. One would expect that - as testing capability increased - they would test more marginal, less symptomatic cases.
That being said, the increase in testing was so significant yesterday that, even if CV-19 incidence was in decline, you'd still expect to see an increase in diagnoses.
It would be sensible to put together a hybrid measure, that took into account both the proportion positive, and the raw number. If I wasn't really busy, I'd have a go
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
I hope we remember the small local traders who are helping us out when all this is over. The fishmonger, cheese and fruit and veg shops we use are all going to deliver to us.
Amazon on the other hand took our money for a homepathic remedy I buy from them regularly as I can't source it elsewhere use and sent us an email that it was estimated they "might" deliver it in May. One of the sad aspects of this whole affair as that companies like Amazon that don't give a sh1t about the UK will make a small fortune out of us.
Homeopathic remedies are freely available from the tap.
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
What has been increasingly clear is that people have far more chance getting what they want in convenience stores. Which hopefully keeps the smaller businesses thriving which is good!
Yes, this panic buying is getting really annoying now. You can’t even order toilet paper three weeks ahead with Waitrose.
I haven’t been panic buying. I have just very calmly been buying more of everything.
I was on a Webinar from the Data company Kantar this afternoon. There has been far less panic buying in bulk as people think. Instead the trend is more people making more shopping trips and buying more per trip. The culmulative effect is a very significant uplift on a significant number of products.
As the trend is a lot of trips buying more, as people start to eat their stock they will go back out and replenish to keep topped up. So the high demand looks set to co time as long as this does.
25% of food apparently came from the restaurants, pubs and cafes? Nearly all that is now going to have to come through the supermarkets.
However, 2 girls trying to get into M&S at 9.00am in front of us today told the lady on the door thy were shopping for their grandmother. They were let in and were killing themselves laughing all the way to the foothall. Will need watching. There is no depth that some won't sink to.
Johnson 1000% better than yesterday but still coming across as confused. Not good enough.
Give Boris a break.
Rishi will be along in time
And they make a good combination
I appreciate there are people in Government trying to make the best of this crisis.
Johnson doesn't deserve a break, he is currently the weak link.
Other views are available
Precisely - Boris has been raising Rishi's profile for some time, then elevated him to the Chancellorship in a move that was much criticized by Boris-bashers at the time. One of Boris' strengths is identifying the right person for the job and letting them get on with it, and he should receive full credit for that - it's a much underrated political skill.
If that's the case why did he make the Saj Chancellor a matter of months earlier?
As I couldn't book my next tesco shop til a week today (when I booked them all last week), we are now nearly out of food. But in a wonderful pull together from local businesses, we have spoken to the butchers who are delivering tomorrow and have messaged the veg shop who have sent a lovely reply to say they will get a delivery to us tomorrow too! So it's got to be local all the way!
Really things are going to change in a big way
I hope we remember the small local traders who are helping us out when all this is over. The fishmonger, cheese and fruit and veg shops we use are all going to deliver to us.
Amazon on the other hand took our money for a homepathic remedy I buy from them regularly as I can't source it elsewhere use and sent us an email that it was estimated they "might" deliver it in May. One of the sad aspects of this whole affair as that companies like Amazon that don't give a sh1t about the UK will make a small fortune out of us.
Homeopathic remedies are freely available from the tap.
The one I need isn't and if you understood why I need it you might not be so flippant.
Net increase in currently positive cases is 4670. So almost 6000 new cases
The lock down is not working then
The worrying numbers are from Lombardy and Veneto, rather than the general ones. You see, it took 10-12 days from the lockdown announcement in Hubei, to reported new cases falling because of the significant timelage between infection and reporting.
My assumption was that we'd see a similar trend in Italy, with overall numbers peaking today or tomorrow, and Lombardy/Veneto peaking Wednesday/Thursday (as those regions had the initial lockdown).
But the current numbers don't show this. It's not clear why this is the case, but here are three options:
1. Italian families are larger than Chinese ones, and therefore there will be significant continued familial infection after lockdown 2. Italians are ignoring the lockdown 3. Testing is ramping up, and earlier counts were an underestimate
Any - or all - of these could be a factor.
Or China lied.
I can believe they are lying about the figures outside Hubei.
But inside?
If you lock everyone in their homes and weld the doors shut (as allegedly happened), then infection rates are going to drop rapidly to zero. Everyone in your family gets it... And pretty much no-one outside.
So, I find the Hubei figures plausible, as does the WHO.
You don't think Trumps has considered defaulting on Chinese held Government debt as way of compensation.
Comments
But inside?
If you lock everyone in their homes and weld the doors shut (as allegedly happened), then infection rates are going to drop rapidly to zero. Everyone in your family gets it... And pretty much no-one outside.
So, I find the Hubei figures plausible, as does the WHO.
"Government grants will cover 80% of the salary of retained workers up to a total of £2,500 a month. That’s just above the median income. And of course employers can top up salaries further if they chose to."
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/government-to-pay-80-of-wages-of-employees-not-working-as-a-result-of-coronavirus-outbreak-rishi-sunak-announces
If you assume that - given no social distancing - then cases double every two days. Well, even if just two in three people lock themselves at home, then the R0 will drop below 1.
The advantage of properly enforcing a lockdown is that R0 is driven to zero in just 30 days or so.
Managed to hit gold last evening and log on to Sainsbury's just as they upload a handful of delivery times in my patch. Got one secured for tomorrow for fresh food. Limits on a lot of items.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1241070323023446016
As the trend is a lot of trips buying more, as people start to eat their stock they will go back out and replenish to keep topped up. So the high demand looks set to co time as long as this does.
Telegraph (2pm this afternoon)
I`m self employed. My friend does exactly the same job as me but a while ago changed from S/E to set up his own ltd company (in order to pay less tax). He is the sole employee of his ltd company - i.e. the limited company is ONLY him.
Is Sunak saying that my friend will benefit up to 80% of £2500 and I will get nothing?
Postman, gardener and plumber all round at same time yesterday whilst I was on a call to the office !!
I was WFH this week and will be back in the office next week (I assume that's not yet banned ?). Probably the only person in the country doing things that way round.
Here in Not-quite Lockdown London I'm trying to get my head round what Johnson is actually saying. Casinos will have to close but betting shops won't - he ought to see all the men who congregate in the local Ladbrokes and Jennings shops in East Ham High Street,
Paddy Power are closing all their UK shops from tonight until the end of April - could have something to do with the collapse in turnover following the halting of football and horse racing - the days of people doing 112 x 1p reverse forecast doubles on traps 1 and 6 at Hackney are long gone.
The local KFC, Macdonalds and others have been takeaway only for the past few days - my local Chinese delivered my Friday evening scoff as usual while my favourite cafe in the Barking Road can presumably still cook food to go (while you wait with a dozen other people for your food).
The plans are again ill considered and open to abuse.
As for Sunak's proposals, it's great to see his inner social democrat coming through and not the constrained neo-Thatcherite New Labour nonsense, this is social democracy at its purest. Nick P can help out but I have a recollection that in Denmark and Sweden in the 70s and early 80s, if you lost your job, your unemployment benefit was based in your previous salary - you only got 2/3 then so Sunak is a real convert.
Once he puts income tax up to 60p in the £ we'll have the social democrat utopia for which we have all been secretly yearning. A big spending high taxation Conservative Government - sounds good to me.
Spanish authorities saying 80% of residents of Madrid will catch this
Sobering stats
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1240677457721614338
You'll be able to claim Universal Credit...
Fistly, the infected in the two thirds (which would be two thirds of the infections...) would not be able to infect anyone, and would have R0s of 0.
For the other third, as there would be only one third the number of people they could bump into, surely their infectiousness would also decline, unless they managed to maintain the same level of social interaction as previously.
Pls see the NYTimes visualisation.
NEW THREAD
Amazon on the other hand took our money for a homepathic remedy I buy from them regularly as I can't source it elsewhere use and sent us an email that it was estimated they "might" deliver it in May. One of the sad aspects of this whole affair as that companies like Amazon that don't give a sh1t about the UK will make a small fortune out of us.
This thread has reached the end of term
Johnson is doing OK basically because he's leaving it to others. He has been eclipsed by just about everyone else that speaks after he's finished waffling on. It's fine because he has the sense not to interfere or grandstand like the idiot across the Atlantic. Is he actually bringing anything to the party, probably not.
I have to admit to being uncomfortable with this package, but I seem to be in a very small minority on here.
I'm uncomfortable, but it's the right thing to do. If you are not uncomfortable with solutions in an emergency situation then they are probably not radical enough!
That being said, the increase in testing was so significant yesterday that, even if CV-19 incidence was in decline, you'd still expect to see an increase in diagnoses.
It would be sensible to put together a hybrid measure, that took into account both the proportion positive, and the raw number. If I wasn't really busy, I'd have a go
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20