politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As schools close down for an indefinite period it looks as though a London lockdown is not far off
It is now very likely – though not formally decided and definite – that London cinemas pubs restaurants and gyms will be told to close, I’m told.This follows Evening Standard story: https://t.co/rSNpbgL1CH
Technically the Democratic nomination has not been resolved, Biden still needs 800 delegates or so to be nominee though he is likely to be. Trump passed the threshold of delegates needed to be GOP nominee on Tuesday. Labour leadership election at least to be decided in early April still ongoing
In terms of Covid 19 the UK is still in line with most of the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Germany which are not yet in full lockdown. France, Italy, Belgium, Ireland, California, China and South Korea are in full lockdown. The Netherlands though it seems is still pursuing herd immunity and still leaving schools open for example
The last paragraph of that article is correct, the next French Presidental election is Le Pen's to lose.
And lose it she will.
It is more likely than not, at the moment, that you are right. But there have now been two occasions when France has had to be saved from a Le Pen by the left holding their noses in a runoff. I don't know how long that can continue.
Forever probably. The whole point of a run off is to have to hold their nose and make a choice.
Technically the Democratic nomination has not been resolved, Biden still needs 800 delegates or so to be nominee though he is likely to be. Trump passed the threshold of delegates needed to be GOP nominee on Tuesday. Labour leadership election at least to be decided in early April still ongoing
The LAB leadership ballot closes on Wednesday with he result at next weekend. If it is not Starmer then many will be claiming it is a fix.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
A big lockdown now is the only way to deal with being caught off guard like this. the West was completely unprepared. You will cause many many more needless deaths without these measures. Then, once the peak has passed, restrictions can slowly be lifted, social distancing maintained but not full lockdown, cases will rise but slower, people will be aware of the dangers, flights will be monitored and screened, and the healthcare system won't be submerged. You buy time for various drugs to manage symptoms, buy time to ramp up production of testing kits, protective gear, beds and ventilators. A vaccine in the longer term too.
The question is would the western public accepted a total lockdown immediately. Asia has gone through the likes of SARS, they get it.
Here, despite wall to wall coverage, large parts of society don't seem to think this is serious. I am not sure they would have agreed to go into lockdown when the very first few cases appeared and the dominant view was it is just flu.
Yes that is one of the big problems. In France and Italy there are still many people ignoring lockdown or not taking it seriously enough. The army will almost certainly be called in to enforce measures more strictly. Hopefully we all learn for next time, complacency on the parts of Western governments and western citizens.
Mr. Smithson, do you think there's a plausible chance Starmer could lose? I put a tiny sum on RLB on the basis of much Twitter chatter about voting papers going undelivered.
In terms of Covid 19 the UK is still in line with most of the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Germany which are not yet in full lockdown. France, Italy, Belgium, Ireland, California, China and South Korea are in full lockdown. The Netherlands though it seems is still pursuing herd immunity and still leaving schools open for example
The situation is fluent, though, and there is a clear trend. Over here, for example, Bavaria, Hesse, Thuringia, the Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate have declared over the last hours that they will proceed to tighten restrictions. The federal government will declare the full lockdown on Sunday, maybe even earlier. In the Netherlands a lot of ordinary Dutchmen are beginning to ponder whether to pursue a new government rather than 'herd immunity'.
Mr. Smithson, do you think there's a plausible chance Starmer could lose? I put a tiny sum on RLB on the basis of much Twitter chatter about voting papers going undelivered.
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
A big lockdown now is the only way to deal with being caught off guard like this. the West was completely unprepared. You will cause many many more needless deaths without these measures. Then, once the peak has passed, restrictions can slowly be lifted, social distancing maintained but not full lockdown, cases will rise but slower, people will be aware of the dangers, flights will be monitored and screened, and the healthcare system won't be submerged. You buy time for various drugs to manage symptoms, buy time to ramp up production of testing kits, protective gear, beds and ventilators. A vaccine in the longer term too.
The question is would the western public accepted a total lockdown immediately. Asia has gone through the likes of SARS, they get it.
Here, despite wall to wall coverage, large parts of society don't seem to think this is serious. I am not sure they would have agreed to go into lockdown when the very first few cases appeared and the dominant view was it is just flu.
Yes that is one of the big problems. In France and Italy there are still many people ignoring lockdown or not taking it seriously enough. The army will almost certainly be called in to enforce measures more strictly. Hopefully we all learn for next time, complacency on the parts of Western governments and western citizens.
Problem is if the social distancing or a lockdown succeeds then many will look back and say "all that and look how few died, what was the point in that for a flu?" without getting the point that if we hadn't had the distancing etc not happened.
I'm still chuffed that I'm classed as a key worker.
I'm not at all surprised that I'm classed as a key worker. My wife working as a student TA in school was a given as such. Our kids finish today - we can manage a WFH around them.
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
A big lockdown now is the only way to deal with being caught off guard like this. the West was completely unprepared. You will cause many many more needless deaths without these measures. Then, once the peak has passed, restrictions can slowly be lifted, social distancing maintained but not full lockdown, cases will rise but slower, people will be aware of the dangers, flights will be monitored and screened, and the healthcare system won't be submerged. You buy time for various drugs to manage symptoms, buy time to ramp up production of testing kits, protective gear, beds and ventilators. A vaccine in the longer term too.
The question is would the western public accepted a total lockdown immediately. Asia has gone through the likes of SARS, they get it.
Here, despite wall to wall coverage, large parts of society don't seem to think this is serious. I am not sure they would have agreed to go into lockdown when the very first few cases appeared and the dominant view was it is just flu.
Yes that is one of the big problems. In France and Italy there are still many people ignoring lockdown or not taking it seriously enough. The army will almost certainly be called in to enforce measures more strictly. Hopefully we all learn for next time, complacency on the parts of Western governments and western citizens.
Problem is if the social distancing or a lockdown succeeds then many will look back and say "all that and look how few died, what was the point in that for a flu?" without getting the point that if we hadn't had the distancing etc not happened.
The answer to that would have been to simply point at Italy.
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
As if I'd ever stay in a Britannia.
One day, if you save up and stop wasting money on pineapple pizzas.
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
As if I'd ever stay in a Britannia.
I'd never heard of them before yesterday, they sound terrible, which reflects the management I guess.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
A big lockdown now is the only way to deal with being caught off guard like this. the West was completely unprepared. You will cause many many more needless deaths without these measures. Then, once the peak has passed, restrictions can slowly be lifted, social distancing maintained but not full lockdown, cases will rise but slower, people will be aware of the dangers, flights will be monitored and screened, and the healthcare system won't be submerged. You buy time for various drugs to manage symptoms, buy time to ramp up production of testing kits, protective gear, beds and ventilators. A vaccine in the longer term too.
The question is would the western public accepted a total lockdown immediately. Asia has gone through the likes of SARS, they get it.
Here, despite wall to wall coverage, large parts of society don't seem to think this is serious. I am not sure they would have agreed to go into lockdown when the very first few cases appeared and the dominant view was it is just flu.
Yes that is one of the big problems. In France and Italy there are still many people ignoring lockdown or not taking it seriously enough. The army will almost certainly be called in to enforce measures more strictly. Hopefully we all learn for next time, complacency on the parts of Western governments and western citizens.
Problem is if the social distancing or a lockdown succeeds then many will look back and say "all that and look how few died, what was the point in that for a flu?" without getting the point that if we hadn't had the distancing etc not happened.
The answer to that would have been to simply point at Italy.
Edit: Oh sorry, I misread that as "had succeeded". But a moot point now. The horse has bolted and deaths will now be high whatever we do.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
A big lockdown now is the only way to deal with being caught off guard like this. the West was completely unprepared. You will cause many many more needless deaths without these measures. Then, once the peak has passed, restrictions can slowly be lifted, social distancing maintained but not full lockdown, cases will rise but slower, people will be aware of the dangers, flights will be monitored and screened, and the healthcare system won't be submerged. You buy time for various drugs to manage symptoms, buy time to ramp up production of testing kits, protective gear, beds and ventilators. A vaccine in the longer term too.
The question is would the western public accepted a total lockdown immediately. Asia has gone through the likes of SARS, they get it.
Here, despite wall to wall coverage, large parts of society don't seem to think this is serious. I am not sure they would have agreed to go into lockdown when the very first few cases appeared and the dominant view was it is just flu.
Yes that is one of the big problems. In France and Italy there are still many people ignoring lockdown or not taking it seriously enough. The army will almost certainly be called in to enforce measures more strictly. Hopefully we all learn for next time, complacency on the parts of Western governments and western citizens.
Problem is if the social distancing or a lockdown succeeds then many will look back and say "all that and look how few died, what was the point in that for a flu?" without getting the point that if we hadn't had the distancing etc not happened.
I suspect we may be able to point them to the US and say, look what could have happened.
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
As if I'd ever stay in a Britannia.
I'd never heard of them before yesterday, they sound terrible, which reflects the management I guess.
I think they've won the worst hotel group award for the last seven years.
Back in 2002 I stayed in the Britannia Manchester (because everywhere else was sold out in Manchester City Centre.)
I checked out an hour after I checked in, and ended up getting a hotel at the airport instead.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
A big lockdown now is the only way to deal with being caught off guard like this. the West was completely unprepared. You will cause many many more needless deaths without these measures. Then, once the peak has passed, restrictions can slowly be lifted, social distancing maintained but not full lockdown, cases will rise but slower, people will be aware of the dangers, flights will be monitored and screened, and the healthcare system won't be submerged. You buy time for various drugs to manage symptoms, buy time to ramp up production of testing kits, protective gear, beds and ventilators. A vaccine in the longer term too.
The question is would the western public accepted a total lockdown immediately. Asia has gone through the likes of SARS, they get it.
Here, despite wall to wall coverage, large parts of society don't seem to think this is serious. I am not sure they would have agreed to go into lockdown when the very first few cases appeared and the dominant view was it is just flu.
Yes that is one of the big problems. In France and Italy there are still many people ignoring lockdown or not taking it seriously enough. The army will almost certainly be called in to enforce measures more strictly. Hopefully we all learn for next time, complacency on the parts of Western governments and western citizens.
Problem is if the social distancing or a lockdown succeeds then many will look back and say "all that and look how few died, what was the point in that for a flu?" without getting the point that if we hadn't had the distancing etc not happened.
I suspect we may be able to point them to the US and say, look what could have happened.
At the moment the Netherlands is the western nation least pursuing social distancing and least close to lockdown, not the USA
What's wrong with it? If you were forecast to get good grades you will get them, if you weren't, you can have another go in a few months. Seems fair enough to me under the circumstances.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
A big lockdown now is the only way to deal with being caught off guard like this. the West was completely unprepared. You will cause many many more needless deaths without these measures. Then, once the peak has passed, restrictions can slowly be lifted, social distancing maintained but not full lockdown, cases will rise but slower, people will be aware of the dangers, flights will be monitored and screened, and the healthcare system won't be submerged. You buy time for various drugs to manage symptoms, buy time to ramp up production of testing kits, protective gear, beds and ventilators. A vaccine in the longer term too.
The question is would the western public accepted a total lockdown immediately. Asia has gone through the likes of SARS, they get it.
Here, despite wall to wall coverage, large parts of society don't seem to think this is serious. I am not sure they would have agreed to go into lockdown when the very first few cases appeared and the dominant view was it is just flu.
Yes that is one of the big problems. In France and Italy there are still many people ignoring lockdown or not taking it seriously enough. The army will almost certainly be called in to enforce measures more strictly. Hopefully we all learn for next time, complacency on the parts of Western governments and western citizens.
Problem is if the social distancing or a lockdown succeeds then many will look back and say "all that and look how few died, what was the point in that for a flu?" without getting the point that if we hadn't had the distancing etc not happened.
I suspect we may be able to point them to the US and say, look what could have happened.
At the moment the Netherlands is the western nation least pursuing social distancing and least close to lockdown, not the USA
But at least the Netherlands have a comprehensive health system.
I'm still chuffed that I'm classed as a key worker.
I'm not at all surprised that I'm classed as a key worker. My wife working as a student TA in school was a given as such. Our kids finish today - we can manage a WFH around them.
My wife says I`m a key worker. I think she just means that I work and she doesn`t.
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
As if I'd ever stay in a Britannia.
I'd never heard of them before yesterday, they sound terrible, which reflects the management I guess.
I think they've won the worst hotel group award for the last seven years.
Back in 2002 I stayed in the Britannia Manchester (because everywhere else was sold out in Manchester City Centre.)
I checked out an hour after I checked in, and ended up getting a hotel at the airport instead.
I still have nightmares.
Dean Clough Travelodge in Halifax has to be a contender for the worst hotel in the UK award. I particularly like the fact that they give you your breakfast in a bag as you check-in. Classy.
What's wrong with it? If you were forecast to get good grades you will get them, if you weren't, you can have another go in a few months. Seems fair enough to me under the circumstances.
Yes, I thought that. Another way of looking at it is that if you want to challenge your forecast grade you can do so in the autumn.
What isn't clear from that post whether you can 'bank' the higher grade i.e. if you are forecast a B and challenge it via an exam in the hope of an A and then get a C does the B stand?
What's wrong with it? If you were forecast to get good grades you will get them, if you weren't, you can have another go in a few months. Seems fair enough to me under the circumstances.
Yes, I thought that. Another way of looking at it is that if you want to challenge your forecast grade you can do so in the autumn.
What isn't clear from that post whether you can 'bank' the higher grade i.e. if you are forecast a B and challenge it via an exam in the hope of an A and then get a C does the B stand?
I'm still chuffed that I'm classed as a key worker.
I'm not at all surprised that I'm classed as a key worker. My wife working as a student TA in school was a given as such. Our kids finish today - we can manage a WFH around them.
My wife says I`m a key worker. I think she just means that I work and she doesn`t.
Does someone who cuts you a new set of Chubbs count as a key worker?
What's wrong with it? If you were forecast to get good grades you will get them, if you weren't, you can have another go in a few months. Seems fair enough to me under the circumstances.
Yes, I thought that. Another way of looking at it is that if you want to challenge your forecast grade you can do so in the autumn.
What isn't clear from that post whether you can 'bank' the higher grade i.e. if you are forecast a B and challenge it via an exam in the hope of an A and then get a C does the B stand?
Sounds like could be similar to final rounds of Bullseye? Is there also the chance to win a speed boat or a static caravan?
In all seriousness, I think that is a decent point.
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
As if I'd ever stay in a Britannia.
I'd never heard of them before yesterday, they sound terrible, which reflects the management I guess.
I think they've won the worst hotel group award for the last seven years.
Back in 2002 I stayed in the Britannia Manchester (because everywhere else was sold out in Manchester City Centre.)
I checked out an hour after I checked in, and ended up getting a hotel at the airport instead.
I still have nightmares.
Dean Clough Travelodge in Halifax has to be a contender for the worst hotel in the UK award. I particularly like the fact that they give you your breakfast in a bag as you check-in. Classy.
Did your room have that 100 year old carpet smell that pervades the rest of the mill complex?
What's wrong with it? If you were forecast to get good grades you will get them, if you weren't, you can have another go in a few months. Seems fair enough to me under the circumstances.
Yes, I thought that. Another way of looking at it is that if you want to challenge your forecast grade you can do so in the autumn.
What isn't clear from that post whether you can 'bank' the higher grade i.e. if you are forecast a B and challenge it via an exam in the hope of an A and then get a C does the B stand?
I hope they'll let them do that, especially as many were probably hoping to improve their grade based on their final exam.
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
I'm buying now.
The key will be to avoid buying shares in companies that literally won`t make it through all of this. This fear is why the FTSE250 index has been hit even harder than the FTSE100.
FTSE250 includes the101st - 350th largest companies. If you can find companies in that range which will very likely survive then they would be the ones to consider buying now.
I`d also say be careful of high dividend-paying companies. These companies are unlikely IMO to be able to maintain the dividend at the current level (if at all). When these companies admit this this will drive their shares down again for sure.
The general trend over the last few weeks is for weekend news and anxieties to cause drops at the beginning of the week, with soft recoveries as the week goes on, and great volatility.
The bottom of a bear market is usually months or years rather than weeks after the peak. I cannot see it being greatly different even in these unusual circumstances.
Not in 1987 from memory.
I knew 1987, I lived through 1987... 2020 is no 1987.
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
As if I'd ever stay in a Britannia.
I'd never heard of them before yesterday, they sound terrible, which reflects the management I guess.
I think they've won the worst hotel group award for the last seven years.
Back in 2002 I stayed in the Britannia Manchester (because everywhere else was sold out in Manchester City Centre.)
I checked out an hour after I checked in, and ended up getting a hotel at the airport instead.
I still have nightmares.
Dean Clough Travelodge in Halifax has to be a contender for the worst hotel in the UK award. I particularly like the fact that they give you your breakfast in a bag as you check-in. Classy.
Did your room have that 100 year old carpet smell that pervades the rest of the mill complex?
Yes indeed, I swear there was still carpet dust in the air.
What's wrong with it? If you were forecast to get good grades you will get them, if you weren't, you can have another go in a few months. Seems fair enough to me under the circumstances.
Yes, I thought that. Another way of looking at it is that if you want to challenge your forecast grade you can do so in the autumn.
What isn't clear from that post whether you can 'bank' the higher grade i.e. if you are forecast a B and challenge it via an exam in the hope of an A and then get a C does the B stand?
I hope they'll let them do that, especially as many were probably hoping to improve their grade based on their final exam.
Agreed. However, it will be more efficient for the DfE if they say the result of the exam (if you take it) is final – as this will act as a disincentive for people to have a potshot at it on the off chance.
I'm still chuffed that I'm classed as a key worker.
I'm not at all surprised that I'm classed as a key worker. My wife working as a student TA in school was a given as such. Our kids finish today - we can manage a WFH around them.
My wife says I`m a key worker. I think she just means that I work and she doesn`t.
Does someone who cuts you a new set of Chubbs count as a key worker?
How about the people who operate the canal narrowboat gates?
That’s... rather unhelpful. Teachers become gods. There is a reason why exams are independently invigilated and marked.
I had a teacher at school who for whatever reason took a dislike to me and would always award relatively low grades and predictions to me. When it got to actual marked exams I did much better than predicted.
Technically the Democratic nomination has not been resolved, Biden still needs 800 delegates or so to be nominee though he is likely to be. Trump passed the threshold of delegates needed to be GOP nominee on Tuesday. Labour leadership election at least to be decided in early April still ongoing
The LAB leadership ballot closes on Wednesday with he result at next weekend. If it is not Starmer then many will be claiming it is a fix.
I'm still chuffed that I'm classed as a key worker.
I'm not at all surprised that I'm classed as a key worker. My wife working as a student TA in school was a given as such. Our kids finish today - we can manage a WFH around them.
My wife says I`m a key worker. I think she just means that I work and she doesn`t.
Does someone who cuts you a new set of Chubbs count as a key worker?
How about the people who operate the canal narrowboat gates?
That’s... rather unhelpful. Teachers become gods. There is a reason why exams are independently invigilated and marked.
I had a teacher at school who for whatever reason took a dislike to me and would always award relatively low grades and predictions to me. When it got to actual marked exams I did much better than predicted.
Isn't that covered by the second option, to sit the exam later?
What's wrong with it? If you were forecast to get good grades you will get them, if you weren't, you can have another go in a few months. Seems fair enough to me under the circumstances.
Yes, I thought that. Another way of looking at it is that if you want to challenge your forecast grade you can do so in the autumn.
What isn't clear from that post whether you can 'bank' the higher grade i.e. if you are forecast a B and challenge it via an exam in the hope of an A and then get a C does the B stand?
I hope they'll let them do that, especially as many were probably hoping to improve their grade based on their final exam.
Its says the grade the course tutor believed the student would have got. In other words the predicted grade. These are always a combination of coursework done and exams done and the direction of travel.
Boris Johnson is expected to announce the shut down of London today with bars, clubs, pubs, restaurants and cafes all ordered to close.
Shops considered ‘non-essential’ such as clothing stores are also likely to be forced to shut their doors in an attempt to curb coronavirus in the capital.
Well-placed sources said the Prime Minister would make the announcement at his afternoon press conference. London’s mayor Sadiq Khan is expected to make a separate statement.
Technically the Democratic nomination has not been resolved, Biden still needs 800 delegates or so to be nominee though he is likely to be. Trump passed the threshold of delegates needed to be GOP nominee on Tuesday. Labour leadership election at least to be decided in early April still ongoing
The LAB leadership ballot closes on Wednesday with he result at next weekend. If it is not Starmer then many will be claiming it is a fix.
Are you sure? Voting open until Thursday 2nd April according to wiki.
What's wrong with it? If you were forecast to get good grades you will get them, if you weren't, you can have another go in a few months. Seems fair enough to me under the circumstances.
Yes, I thought that. Another way of looking at it is that if you want to challenge your forecast grade you can do so in the autumn.
What isn't clear from that post whether you can 'bank' the higher grade i.e. if you are forecast a B and challenge it via an exam in the hope of an A and then get a C does the B stand?
It does seem like as fair a solution as anyone's likely to come up with.
It will be very problematic for the teachers, each subjective judgment having such a major effect on a young person that they know well and want to do well. As a scientist, it would be assumed that I'd decline requests to review papers and grant applications by people I know less well, on the grounds of a conflict of interest. I also wonder whether students will be able to make FOI requests to see what is written about them - my guess is that they will.
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
As if I'd ever stay in a Britannia.
I'd never heard of them before yesterday, they sound terrible, which reflects the management I guess.
I think they've won the worst hotel group award for the last seven years.
Back in 2002 I stayed in the Britannia Manchester (because everywhere else was sold out in Manchester City Centre.)
I checked out an hour after I checked in, and ended up getting a hotel at the airport instead.
I still have nightmares.
Dean Clough Travelodge in Halifax has to be a contender for the worst hotel in the UK award. I particularly like the fact that they give you your breakfast in a bag as you check-in. Classy.
Did your room have that 100 year old carpet smell that pervades the rest of the mill complex?
Yes indeed, I swear there was still carpet dust in the air.
Re the method of awarding exam grades: the devil will be in the detail of course, but the basic idea looks like the best compromise available. I hope the ability to take the exam for real if you don’t like the predicted grade will prevent too many complaints from those who are convinced that just because they got a D in the mock it doesn’t mean they can’t get an A* in the summer.
On numbers of key workers: it will be different in primary schools I‘m sure, but it seems we are expecting to be able to run the babysitting side with about three staff at a time from Monday in a school with over a thousand pupils. That might be optimistic, but if not then the school is basically shut. Lessons will happen over the internet, so any pupils in school will be sitting down with an iPad or laptop for five hours a day.
Technically the Democratic nomination has not been resolved, Biden still needs 800 delegates or so to be nominee though he is likely to be. Trump passed the threshold of delegates needed to be GOP nominee on Tuesday. Labour leadership election at least to be decided in early April still ongoing
The LAB leadership ballot closes on Wednesday with he result at next weekend. If it is not Starmer then many will be claiming it is a fix.
Are you sure? Voting open until Thursday 2nd April according to wiki.
Well ... waiting for the storm to hit is painful. Knowing what is coming feels unreal. Watching the general public lose their most basic of freedoms and endure economic catastrophe, losing their jobs, their pension funds and investments shattered, with children losing their right to be educated and facing impaired job opportunities when they leave school and university is infuriating, depressing and, frankly, enraging.
I'm still chuffed that I'm classed as a key worker.
I'm not at all surprised that I'm classed as a key worker. My wife working as a student TA in school was a given as such. Our kids finish today - we can manage a WFH around them.
My wife says I`m a key worker. I think she just means that I work and she doesn`t.
Does someone who cuts you a new set of Chubbs count as a key worker?
How about the people who operate the canal narrowboat gates?
Er.. that's locks rather than keys, surely?
How about hostesses who manage wife-swapping parties?
Boris Johnson is expected to announce the shut down of London today with bars, clubs, pubs, restaurants and cafes all ordered to close.
Shops considered ‘non-essential’ such as clothing stores are also likely to be forced to shut their doors in an attempt to curb coronavirus in the capital.
Well-placed sources said the Prime Minister would make the announcement at his afternoon press conference. London’s mayor Sadiq Khan is expected to make a separate statement.
Boris Johnson is expected to announce the shut down of London today with bars, clubs, pubs, restaurants and cafes all ordered to close.
Shops considered ‘non-essential’ such as clothing stores are also likely to be forced to shut their doors in an attempt to curb coronavirus in the capital.
Well-placed sources said the Prime Minister would make the announcement at his afternoon press conference. London’s mayor Sadiq Khan is expected to make a separate statement.
It's high time for him to ditch the stiff-upper-lip-kabuki and get real. He needs to take a step forward.
I'm still chuffed that I'm classed as a key worker.
I'm not at all surprised that I'm classed as a key worker. My wife working as a student TA in school was a given as such. Our kids finish today - we can manage a WFH around them.
My wife says I`m a key worker. I think she just means that I work and she doesn`t.
Does someone who cuts you a new set of Chubbs count as a key worker?
How about the people who operate the canal narrowboat gates?
Er.. that's locks rather than keys, surely?
How about hostesses who manage wife-swapping parties?
Someone needs to make a browser extension with puts up a huge warning on websites of companies that have fired all of their staff like Britannia hotels and Cineworld. Fuck those companies.
No one in the private sector would be entirely safe from the ensuing witch hunt.
Personally, I would let businesses make their own decisions; concede that the state needs to do more in terms of providing a social safety net, particularly in times of national emergency, tax high earners accordingly.
Boris Johnson is expected to announce the shut down of London today with bars, clubs, pubs, restaurants and cafes all ordered to close.
Shops considered ‘non-essential’ such as clothing stores are also likely to be forced to shut their doors in an attempt to curb coronavirus in the capital.
Well-placed sources said the Prime Minister would make the announcement at his afternoon press conference. London’s mayor Sadiq Khan is expected to make a separate statement.
It's high time for him to ditch the stiff-upper-lip-kabuki and get real. He needs to take a step forward.
I don’t think Boris is doing that bad a job in the circumstances but what I would say is it does feel he’s being buffeted by events a little.
No school closures turns into school closures 24 hours later. No London lockdown (possibly) turns into London lockdown etc.
If these things are coming down the road in a days time, I don’t really see the reason why it hasn’t just been done. Not sure 24 hours makes a huge amount of difference.
Guernsey closing pubs & nightclubs. Alcohol can only be served with meals at tables in restaurants. Currently Covid-19 cases 1 (Tenerife import), but concern that recent returnees could have imported Covid-19 and testing still not fast enough (done via UK, on-island testing being developed but 3-4 weeks away).
Boris Johnson is expected to announce the shut down of London today with bars, clubs, pubs, restaurants and cafes all ordered to close.
Shops considered ‘non-essential’ such as clothing stores are also likely to be forced to shut their doors in an attempt to curb coronavirus in the capital.
Well-placed sources said the Prime Minister would make the announcement at his afternoon press conference. London’s mayor Sadiq Khan is expected to make a separate statement.
So the direct opposite of what he said yesterday.
Do you have a quote of what he said yesterday on this? I thought the mantra was that they are following the advice. If people are ignoring the advice given by the government, doesn't it make sense that things would have to change?
Comments
(Sorry @SquareRoot - it was for the greater good.)
Labour leadership election at least to be decided in early April still ongoing
France, Italy, Belgium, Ireland, California, China and South Korea are in full lockdown.
The Netherlands though it seems is still pursuing herd immunity and still leaving schools open for example
Nice that people in IT are key workers.
Hope she's ok.
*Half, obviously.
Mr. Smithson, do you think there's a plausible chance Starmer could lose? I put a tiny sum on RLB on the basis of much Twitter chatter about voting papers going undelivered.
Over here, for example, Bavaria, Hesse, Thuringia, the Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate have declared over the last hours that they will proceed to tighten restrictions. The federal government will declare the full lockdown on Sunday, maybe even earlier.
In the Netherlands a lot of ordinary Dutchmen are beginning to ponder whether to pursue a new government rather than 'herd immunity'.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-maintaining-educational-provision/guidance-for-schools-colleges-and-local-authorities-on-maintaining-educational-provision
When is the Rishi announcement expected to be made?
Back in 2002 I stayed in the Britannia Manchester (because everywhere else was sold out in Manchester City Centre.)
I checked out an hour after I checked in, and ended up getting a hotel at the airport instead.
I still have nightmares.
I still hope your mother's ok, though.
What isn't clear from that post whether you can 'bank' the higher grade i.e. if you are forecast a B and challenge it via an exam in the hope of an A and then get a C does the B stand?
In all seriousness, I think that is a decent point.
I had a teacher at school who for whatever reason took a dislike to me and would always award relatively low grades and predictions to me. When it got to actual marked exams I did much better than predicted.
Its as fair as it can be in the circumstance.
Shops considered ‘non-essential’ such as clothing stores are also likely to be forced to shut their doors in an attempt to curb coronavirus in the capital.
Well-placed sources said the Prime Minister would make the announcement at his afternoon press conference. London’s mayor Sadiq Khan is expected to make a separate statement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Labour_Party_leadership_election#April
It will be very problematic for the teachers, each subjective judgment having such a major effect on a young person that they know well and want to do well. As a scientist, it would be assumed that I'd decline requests to review papers and grant applications by people I know less well, on the grounds of a conflict of interest. I also wonder whether students will be able to make FOI requests to see what is written about them - my guess is that they will.
On numbers of key workers: it will be different in primary schools I‘m sure, but it seems we are expecting to be able to run the babysitting side with about three staff at a time from Monday in a school with over a thousand pupils. That might be optimistic, but if not then the school is basically shut. Lessons will happen over the internet, so any pupils in school will be sitting down with an iPad or laptop for five hours a day.
I'm in a weird situation, as my work, so far, is almost unaffected. But I'm worried about my parents.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
2nd April, that is.
You've got to be shitting me.
Personally, I would let businesses make their own decisions; concede that the state needs to do more in terms of providing a social safety net, particularly in times of national emergency, tax high earners accordingly.
No school closures turns into school closures 24 hours later. No London lockdown (possibly) turns into London lockdown etc.
If these things are coming down the road in a days time, I don’t really see the reason why it hasn’t just been done. Not sure 24 hours makes a huge amount of difference.