Apparently the 475 deaths excludes data from Parma and Campania. Parma has reported 34 new deaths, so Italy becomes the first nation to officially pass 500 deaths in a day.
Given that Italy is probably about the average temperature we can expect come the summer, that doesn't bode terribly well.
I'm starting to think I was unfair to Eadric. (I'll never hear the last of it if he sees this comment...)
To be honest if we top out at 500 deaths a day we will have done quite well. That would probably keep us under 25k. The growth in Italy’s death toll is no longer exponential. If they are a week away the maximum might be 750. Absolutely horrific but a long, long way away from millions.
On an ordinary day in ordinary times there are about 1,700 UK deaths each day. If the max due to Covid 19 is 750 per day, and this is the peak which begins to decline rapidly, and quite a lot of the deaths would in fact have occurred within a fairly short time anyway because of other underlying problems, we would get away fairly lightly in mortality terms.
I have just been told that headteachers were given no warning of any of today's announcements. This is despite the DfE hosting a briefing of Headteachers at 3.30pm.
That seems a bit strange.
I think medical events overtook that.
I think we're headed for a massive increase in cases, and sadly deaths over the next week.
We probably need to just get on with the deaths. Hiding away en-masse seems likely to cause greater trouble. You can't just expect that the economy will put itself back together. It'll be good in doing so, but there will be gaps.
Apologies to anyone that does actually die, and cheerio if it's me that does!
That's a rather disarming way of putting the case!
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I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
Place the tinned-but-drained pineapple slice on the pizza, light the blue touchpaper, and stand well back. If you hear some sort of groaning whining noise that'll be Radiohead - it's the noise that pineapple makes on pizza when heated. If a system says loading.. please wait, the that'll be Python and pineapple.
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There may be more that I will need to invent.
I was talking to this Albanian taxi driver, who shut off the radio because they started playing Radiohead. He was just finishing a pineapple pizza when I got in the cab - said it redefined the peak of the culinary arts. He was also telling me about how he studying Comp Sci at night school and thought that the coursework was rubbish - Python is for kiddyscripters. The he got onto European history.....
LOL
Thank you, thank you so much!
I was just trying to wright that myself, but yours in much better.
I forgot to mention that we discussed my belief that Australia is a hoax. Denying historical events is for losers. Real wingnuts deny the existence of entire continents.
So we are supposed to believe that a bunch of convicts dumped on a virtually un-inhibitable desert built a liberal democratic country? A place where mammals lay eggs. Where swans are black....
Did you know that Herodotus of Halicarnassus, the Greek historian who is often referred to as the 'Father of history', beveled that the British isles where a hoax.
Not more of a hoax than the suggestion Australia is 'liberal...'
They are run by the Liberal Party according to the hoaxers.
Calling Scott Morrison 'Liberal' is the biggest hoax since Piltdown Man.
Piltdown is a drink chum of mine, I'll have you know!
There are moments in the history of peoples where reality tests us in a difficult, painful and even extreme way. Moments that test the very values of a society and the capacity of the state ”, Felipe VI has valued. 21:05 "We must unite around the same objective: to overcome this serious situation," said the king, who calls for a "collective effort." "Each and every one of us is part of the solution to this crisis," he added. 21:03 Felipe VI praises the work of health professionals: "You are the vanguard of Spain in the fight against this disease, you are our first line of defense."
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I'm worried for Indonesia. Only 227 identified cases from 1592 tests but 19 deaths. Looks like they dont have great testing capacity and it could be about to explode. And there was a first death from sub-saharan Africa in Burkina Faso. If it takes hold in poor countries it will be apocalyptic I think. The rich nations who might help wont be feeling so rich very soon.
Apparently the 475 deaths excludes data from Parma and Campania. Parma has reported 34 new deaths, so Italy becomes the first nation to officially pass 500 deaths in a day.
Given that Italy is probably about the average temperature we can expect come the summer, that doesn't bode terribly well.
I'm starting to think I was unfair to Eadric. (I'll never hear the last of it if he sees this comment...)
To be honest if we top out at 500 deaths a day we will have done quite well. That would probably keep us under 25k. The growth in Italy’s death toll is no longer exponential. If they are a week away the maximum might be 750. Absolutely horrific but a long, long way away from millions.
On an ordinary day in ordinary times there are about 1,700 UK deaths each day. If the max due to Covid 19 is 750 per day, and this is the peak which begins to decline rapidly, and quite a lot of the deaths would in fact have occurred within a fairly short time anyway because of other underlying problems, we would get away fairly lightly in mortality terms.
I think that non CV deaths may also increase as our health service and care services come under serious strain but yes our overall population will still increase this year.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
I dont mind criticising the rich stereotype footballers, so to be fair, hats off to Neville and Giggs for providing 176 free of charge hotel beds for NHS staff isolating, and keeping their workforce on normal pay by doing so.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
China appears to be able to build a hospital in a week?
A magnificent work - much more detail than many more recent biographies.
Is he the one who claimed Nelson's recklessness at Trafalgar was because he sought atonement for his persistent banging of 'That Hamilton Woman' with a glorious death in battle?
No - he actually sets out why Nelson thought he was going to die before he set out. Basically, due to the strategic situation, Nelson reckoned that he would have to fight the Combined fleet with a fleet of half their numbers. So his plan was to divide them in 2 and crush the first half. The second half would catch up with his ships - which would have lost masts etc and so Nelson reckoned that his fleet would be destroyed. Taking most of the second wave with him. Which would prevent an invasion of Britain for at least a year.
In the event, he was lucky and they managed to reinforce his fleet to about equal to the French/Spanish force.
Mahan actually gives a rather balanced portrait of Hamilton - gives views and comments from the likers and the loathers.
I was ones at a dinner when the guest speaker was discussing Lady Hamilton and Nelson. and recounting that when she was 19 she pas employed to dance naked on the table of one Aristocrat for the entertainment of his dinner guests.
At that point an elderly gentleman from the back shouted out, @we have all done that before'
It is a safe haven, it probably shouldnt be but if enough people buy dollars when things go south it becomes one whether the fundamentals deserve it or not.
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There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
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There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
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There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
Who are Radiohead?
An obscure wireless channel specialising in oral pleasure?
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There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
Italy is going to overtake China in deaths tomorrow with 1/20th of the population. And sadly they have a long way to go.
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There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
@bigjohnowls Death rate is going to look high when you're not testing the almost certain community cases that have been advised to ride it out at home. Anecdotally I know more people untested with it than either negative or positive testers.
I'm worried for Indonesia. Only 227 identified cases from 1592 tests but 19 deaths. Looks like they dont have great testing capacity and it could be about to explode. And there was a first death from sub-saharan Africa in Burkina Faso. If it takes hold in poor countries it will be apocalyptic I think. The rich nations who might help wont be feeling so rich very soon.
I think that Subsaharan Africa will not be too bad in percentage terms. In Malawi, half the population is under 18 years old.
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HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
Times are alarming when No. 7 needs to be said...
Although, I note that it is permitted to place pineapple on pizza provided that you don't incite others to do so.
A magnificent work - much more detail than many more recent biographies.
Is he the one who claimed Nelson's recklessness at Trafalgar was because he sought atonement for his persistent banging of 'That Hamilton Woman' with a glorious death in battle?
No - he actually sets out why Nelson thought he was going to die before he set out. Basically, due to the strategic situation, Nelson reckoned that he would have to fight the Combined fleet with a fleet of half their numbers. So his plan was to divide them in 2 and crush the first half. The second half would catch up with his ships - which would have lost masts etc and so Nelson reckoned that his fleet would be destroyed. Taking most of the second wave with him. Which would prevent an invasion of Britain for at least a year.
In the event, he was lucky and they managed to reinforce his fleet to about equal to the French/Spanish force.
Mahan actually gives a rather balanced portrait of Hamilton - gives views and comments from the likers and the loathers.
I was ones at a dinner when the guest speaker was discussing Lady Hamilton and Nelson. and recounting that when she was 19 she pas employed to dance naked on the table of one Aristocrat for the entertainment of his dinner guests.
At that point an elderly gentleman from the back shouted out, @we have all done that before'
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
I have just been told that headteachers were given no warning of any of today's announcements. This is despite the DfE hosting a briefing of Headteachers at 3.30pm.
That seems a bit strange.
I think medical events overtook that.
I think we're headed for a massive increase in cases, and sadly deaths over the next week.
We probably need to just get on with the deaths. Hiding away en-masse seems likely to cause greater trouble. You can't just expect that the economy will put itself back together. It'll be good in doing so, but there will be gaps.
Apologies to anyone that does actually die, and cheerio if it's me that does!
I've been in contact with an economist today, he's convinced we'll see a 'V' shaped recession/depression and recovery.
You know that economists are ten-a-penny don't you?
There are no good economists. They've yet to work it out. Obviously if you have enough of them then you'll find that one of them predicted the price of eggs. Not so obviously you'll also find that there's not a tied-shoelace among them.
For the time being, contacting your friendly economist for wise words is much akin to chatting with your local sooth-sayer.
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There may be more that I will need to invent.
Times are alarming when No. 7 needs to be said...
Although, I note that it is permitted to place pineapple on pizza provided that you don't incite others to do so.
A magnificent work - much more detail than many more recent biographies.
Is he the one who claimed Nelson's recklessness at Trafalgar was because he sought atonement for his persistent banging of 'That Hamilton Woman' with a glorious death in battle?
No - he actually sets out why Nelson thought he was going to die before he set out. Basically, due to the strategic situation, Nelson reckoned that he would have to fight the Combined fleet with a fleet of half their numbers. So his plan was to divide them in 2 and crush the first half. The second half would catch up with his ships - which would have lost masts etc and so Nelson reckoned that his fleet would be destroyed. Taking most of the second wave with him. Which would prevent an invasion of Britain for at least a year.
In the event, he was lucky and they managed to reinforce his fleet to about equal to the French/Spanish force.
Mahan actually gives a rather balanced portrait of Hamilton - gives views and comments from the likers and the loathers.
I was ones at a dinner when the guest speaker was discussing Lady Hamilton and Nelson. and recounting that when she was 19 she pas employed to dance naked on the table of one Aristocrat for the entertainment of his dinner guests.
At that point an elderly gentleman from the back shouted out, @we have all done that before'
I don't think I have laughed so much in years.
REally? I didn't. I had to do it for free.
Who can honestly say that they have never danced naked to Radiohead on a table of pineapple pizzas?
I'm worried for Indonesia. Only 227 identified cases from 1592 tests but 19 deaths. Looks like they dont have great testing capacity and it could be about to explode. And there was a first death from sub-saharan Africa in Burkina Faso. If it takes hold in poor countries it will be apocalyptic I think. The rich nations who might help wont be feeling so rich very soon.
I think that Subsaharan Africa will not be too bad in percentage terms. In Malawi, half the population is under 18 years old.
I'm worried for Indonesia. Only 227 identified cases from 1592 tests but 19 deaths. Looks like they dont have great testing capacity and it could be about to explode. And there was a first death from sub-saharan Africa in Burkina Faso. If it takes hold in poor countries it will be apocalyptic I think. The rich nations who might help wont be feeling so rich very soon.
I think that Subsaharan Africa will not be too bad in percentage terms. In Malawi, half the population is under 18 years old.
Although 9% of them have AIDS. What impact might that have?
(NB, that's a serious question. Is that a condition that complicates things?)
A magnificent work - much more detail than many more recent biographies.
Is he the one who claimed Nelson's recklessness at Trafalgar was because he sought atonement for his persistent banging of 'That Hamilton Woman' with a glorious death in battle?
No - he actually sets out why Nelson thought he was going to die before he set out. Basically, due to the strategic situation, Nelson reckoned that he would have to fight the Combined fleet with a fleet of half their numbers. So his plan was to divide them in 2 and crush the first half. The second half would catch up with his ships - which would have lost masts etc and so Nelson reckoned that his fleet would be destroyed. Taking most of the second wave with him. Which would prevent an invasion of Britain for at least a year.
In the event, he was lucky and they managed to reinforce his fleet to about equal to the French/Spanish force.
Mahan actually gives a rather balanced portrait of Hamilton - gives views and comments from the likers and the loathers.
I was ones at a dinner when the guest speaker was discussing Lady Hamilton and Nelson. and recounting that when she was 19 she pas employed to dance naked on the table of one Aristocrat for the entertainment of his dinner guests.
At that point an elderly gentleman from the back shouted out, @we have all done that before'
I don't think I have laughed so much in years.
REally? I didn't. I had to do it for free.
Who can honestly say that they have never danced naked to Radiohead on a table of pineapple pizzas?
NOTE TO ALL POSTERS. PLEASE BE POLITE. PLEASE BE MEASURED. PLEASE BE AT LEAST ONE THIRD SOBER.
HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
NOTE TO ALL POSTERS. PLEASE BE POLITE. PLEASE BE MEASURED. PLEASE BE AT LEAST ONE THIRD SOBER.
HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
I was talking to this Albanian taxi driver, who shut off the radio because they started playing Radiohead. He was just finishing a pineapple pizza when I got in the cab - said it redefined the peak of the culinary arts. He was also telling me about how he studying Comp Sci at night school and thought that the coursework was rubbish - Python is for kiddyscripters. The he got onto European history.....
LOL
Thank you, thank you so much!
I was just trying to wright that myself, but yours in much better.
I forgot to mention that we discussed my belief that Australia is a hoax. Denying historical events is for losers. Real wingnuts deny the existence of entire continents.
So we are supposed to believe that a bunch of convicts dumped on a virtually un-inhibitable desert built a liberal democratic country? A place where mammals lay eggs. Where swans are black....
I'm worried for Indonesia. Only 227 identified cases from 1592 tests but 19 deaths. Looks like they dont have great testing capacity and it could be about to explode. And there was a first death from sub-saharan Africa in Burkina Faso. If it takes hold in poor countries it will be apocalyptic I think. The rich nations who might help wont be feeling so rich very soon.
I think that Subsaharan Africa will not be too bad in percentage terms. In Malawi, half the population is under 18 years old.
Also there may (or may not) be the temperature thing.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
Italy is going to overtake China in deaths tomorrow with 1/20th of the population. And sadly they have a long way to go.
Indeed and 3 weeks ago they were in our position. Their % death rate gets worse and worse mainly due to too few ventilators.
Apparently the 475 deaths excludes data from Parma and Campania. Parma has reported 34 new deaths, so Italy becomes the first nation to officially pass 500 deaths in a day.
Given that Italy is probably about the average temperature we can expect come the summer, that doesn't bode terribly well.
I'm starting to think I was unfair to Eadric. (I'll never hear the last of it if he sees this comment...)
To be honest if we top out at 500 deaths a day we will have done quite well. That would probably keep us under 25k. The growth in Italy’s death toll is no longer exponential. If they are a week away the maximum might be 750. Absolutely horrific but a long, long way away from millions.
On an ordinary day in ordinary times there are about 1,700 UK deaths each day. If the max due to Covid 19 is 750 per day, and this is the peak which begins to decline rapidly, and quite a lot of the deaths would in fact have occurred within a fairly short time anyway because of other underlying problems, we would get away fairly lightly in mortality terms.
I think that non CV deaths may also increase as our health service and care services come under serious strain but yes our overall population will still increase this year.
Any views on whether there will be a baby boom, a baby dearth or steady as she goes 9 months after the crisis period, peak lockdown, maximum panic etc (whenever that is timed to be).
Apparently the 475 deaths excludes data from Parma and Campania. Parma has reported 34 new deaths, so Italy becomes the first nation to officially pass 500 deaths in a day.
Given that Italy is probably about the average temperature we can expect come the summer, that doesn't bode terribly well.
I'm starting to think I was unfair to Eadric. (I'll never hear the last of it if he sees this comment...)
To be honest if we top out at 500 deaths a day we will have done quite well. That would probably keep us under 25k. The growth in Italy’s death toll is no longer exponential. If they are a week away the maximum might be 750. Absolutely horrific but a long, long way away from millions.
On an ordinary day in ordinary times there are about 1,700 UK deaths each day. If the max due to Covid 19 is 750 per day, and this is the peak which begins to decline rapidly, and quite a lot of the deaths would in fact have occurred within a fairly short time anyway because of other underlying problems, we would get away fairly lightly in mortality terms.
I think that non CV deaths may also increase as our health service and care services come under serious strain but yes our overall population will still increase this year.
Any views on whether there will be a baby boom, a baby dearth or steady as she goes 9 months after the crisis period, peak lockdown, maximum panic etc (whenever that is timed to be).
You have to be pretty cavaliar to risk bringing a baby into the world in nine months time.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Sounds persuasive, and more than one hotel chain has volunteered (perhaps because they can't fiill their rooms any other way, but whatever the motive it seems helpful). Is anyone here in close enough touch with decision-makers to suggest it?
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
Taiwan's approach is fascinating, being a liberal nation it could not follow the China approach and in a way was conshasley trying to do it differently. but so far it seems to be very effective. with a very high use of technology.
Apparently the 475 deaths excludes data from Parma and Campania. Parma has reported 34 new deaths, so Italy becomes the first nation to officially pass 500 deaths in a day.
Given that Italy is probably about the average temperature we can expect come the summer, that doesn't bode terribly well.
I'm starting to think I was unfair to Eadric. (I'll never hear the last of it if he sees this comment...)
To be honest if we top out at 500 deaths a day we will have done quite well. That would probably keep us under 25k. The growth in Italy’s death toll is no longer exponential. If they are a week away the maximum might be 750. Absolutely horrific but a long, long way away from millions.
On an ordinary day in ordinary times there are about 1,700 UK deaths each day. If the max due to Covid 19 is 750 per day, and this is the peak which begins to decline rapidly, and quite a lot of the deaths would in fact have occurred within a fairly short time anyway because of other underlying problems, we would get away fairly lightly in mortality terms.
I think that non CV deaths may also increase as our health service and care services come under serious strain but yes our overall population will still increase this year.
Any views on whether there will be a baby boom, a baby dearth or steady as she goes 9 months after the crisis period, peak lockdown, maximum panic etc (whenever that is timed to be).
You have to be pretty cavaliar to risk bringing a baby into the world in nine months time.
NOTE TO ALL POSTERS. PLEASE BE POLITE. PLEASE BE MEASURED. PLEASE BE AT LEAST ONE THIRD SOBER.
HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
Apparently the 475 deaths excludes data from Parma and Campania. Parma has reported 34 new deaths, so Italy becomes the first nation to officially pass 500 deaths in a day.
Given that Italy is probably about the average temperature we can expect come the summer, that doesn't bode terribly well.
I'm starting to think I was unfair to Eadric. (I'll never hear the last of it if he sees this comment...)
To be honest if we top out at 500 deaths a day we will have done quite well. That would probably keep us under 25k. The growth in Italy’s death toll is no longer exponential. If they are a week away the maximum might be 750. Absolutely horrific but a long, long way away from millions.
On an ordinary day in ordinary times there are about 1,700 UK deaths each day. If the max due to Covid 19 is 750 per day, and this is the peak which begins to decline rapidly, and quite a lot of the deaths would in fact have occurred within a fairly short time anyway because of other underlying problems, we would get away fairly lightly in mortality terms.
I think that non CV deaths may also increase as our health service and care services come under serious strain but yes our overall population will still increase this year.
Any views on whether there will be a baby boom, a baby dearth or steady as she goes 9 months after the crisis period, peak lockdown, maximum panic etc (whenever that is timed to be).
You have to be pretty cavaliar to risk bringing a baby into the world in nine months time.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Yes; they're empty, so rates should be very low. Start with the Ritz, Claridges and the Dorchester?
Apparently the 475 deaths excludes data from Parma and Campania. Parma has reported 34 new deaths, so Italy becomes the first nation to officially pass 500 deaths in a day.
Given that Italy is probably about the average temperature we can expect come the summer, that doesn't bode terribly well.
I'm starting to think I was unfair to Eadric. (I'll never hear the last of it if he sees this comment...)
To be honest if we top out at 500 deaths a day we will have done quite well. That would probably keep us under 25k. The growth in Italy’s death toll is no longer exponential. If they are a week away the maximum might be 750. Absolutely horrific but a long, long way away from millions.
On an ordinary day in ordinary times there are about 1,700 UK deaths each day. If the max due to Covid 19 is 750 per day, and this is the peak which begins to decline rapidly, and quite a lot of the deaths would in fact have occurred within a fairly short time anyway because of other underlying problems, we would get away fairly lightly in mortality terms.
I think that non CV deaths may also increase as our health service and care services come under serious strain but yes our overall population will still increase this year.
Any views on whether there will be a baby boom, a baby dearth or steady as she goes 9 months after the crisis period, peak lockdown, maximum panic etc (whenever that is timed to be).
You have to be pretty cavaliar to risk bringing a baby into the world in nine months time.
Tories will have no money to buy them off you.
Cavalier. Or just bored and stuck at home with nothing much to do. Don't think there will be a lot of thinking involved...
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
Although there are very few countries that fly to Taipei. IIRC when I last went there (a few years ago) I could only get there via HK or Singapore. Hence they were able to control entry very rapidly. It's also a collectivist nation in many ways.
Clearly a good result - but they were playing with a different hand of cards
NOTE TO ALL POSTERS. PLEASE BE POLITE. PLEASE BE MEASURED. PLEASE BE AT LEAST ONE THIRD SOBER.
HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
Who are Radiohead?
An obscure wireless channel specialising in oral pleasure?
NOTE TO ALL POSTERS. PLEASE BE POLITE. PLEASE BE MEASURED. PLEASE BE AT LEAST ONE THIRD SOBER.
HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
Number 9 - I thought I made it clear last night about Python. I do not need to pretend that there are programming languages better than Python. I know there are.
On top of which, the best debugger ever was DEC's on the VAX/VMS series. It was awesome as was their EVE editor.
True, with Perl you can do absolutely anything you want in a single line of code (you can't debug it or maintain it but since when has that been an issue with computer programming).
Are we allowed to discuss Regexes? Strictly not a programming language, but they have an opacity all of their own
Regexes make absolute sense when you get to know them. You actually get a Plato-wandering-out-of-the-cave moment. The universe seems that much clearer. I'd recommend the book by Jeffrey Friedl - possibly the greatest IT guide ever written.
We could have done a Taiwan but that would have required (a) early recognition of the gravity of the problem and (b) openness of mind that foreign countries might do things better than us.
Remember when I was writing about the 'pre-virus' that had infected the West: the ignorance and apathy? Well because we didn't treat the pre-virus we are now going to get a bad dose of the real one.
As you can tell. I'm feeling mightily pissed off today. The government and our experts in conjunction have made a serious boo boo here. The news will be the most brutal since WW2.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Sounds persuasive, and more than one hotel chain has volunteered (perhaps because they can't fiill their rooms any other way, but whatever the motive it seems helpful). Is anyone here in close enough touch with decision-makers to suggest it?
I think the Chinese funnel model works. Fever clinic, If test positive, fever hospital, If deteriorating, then Acute hospital, If deteriorating further, ICU.
It all is dependant on accurate diagnosis and testing. We have neither at present.
NOTE TO ALL POSTERS. PLEASE BE POLITE. PLEASE BE MEASURED. PLEASE BE AT LEAST ONE THIRD SOBER.
HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
Jessica Potter (@DrJessPotter) is a respiratory specialist doctor working in London and a member of EveryDoctor, an organization that campaigns for the working rights of doctors.
oh fuck - Doctors just told son they cant get him a repeat prescription
Even at this early stage.....
Yeah... I’ve been struggling with that too.
Eh? They can't get him a repeat prescription? Why?
When I calmed down from the initial panic and thought about it I thought it didn't make sense to me.
I have asked him to get the prescription from the Docs and we would ring around to see if anyone has the meds.
There’s a lot of deck clearing going on. My wife and I have both had (originally GP requested) follow up appointments cancelled indefinitely; and I’ve had a diagnostic blood test cancelled. I was also asked if my current prescription was “ok” and when I said “for the most part” asked to stick with it rather than discuss it. Not normal things.
Not so much worried for myself but some things are going to start slipping through the cracks.
Jessica Potter (@DrJessPotter) is a respiratory specialist doctor working in London and a member of EveryDoctor, an organization that campaigns for the working rights of doctors.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Yes; they're empty, so rates should be very low. Start with the Ritz, Claridges and the Dorchester?
Airport hotels are empty, and easier to Isolate with roadblocks.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Sounds persuasive, and more than one hotel chain has volunteered (perhaps because they can't fiill their rooms any other way, but whatever the motive it seems helpful). Is anyone here in close enough touch with decision-makers to suggest it?
I think the Chinese funnel model works. Fever clinic, If test positive, fever hospital, If deteriorating, then Acute hospital, If deteriorating further, ICU.
It all is dependant on accurate diagnosis and testing. We have neither at present.
If there is anything that we will be good at it will be testing. I know for a fact that serious work is going on in this space. Testing is my great hope out of this disaster.
No bog roll, dried pasta, soap or fresh milk in Tesco but everything else seemed available.
Bog roll, soap and fresh milk available in the nearby village shop - didn't look for dried pasta.
Two unconnected people off at work with symptoms from under a hundred - this is way more widespread than the official figures suggest.
Possibly but what is the base rate of normal illnesses? I've got two friends self-isolating with what at first glance looks like anti-Covid-19: persistent "wet" (not dry) coughs and for one a lower than normal temperature. Both are ill but with what?
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Yes; they're empty, so rates should be very low. Start with the Ritz, Claridges and the Dorchester?
Airport hotels are empty, and easier to Isolate with roadblocks.
Pay the airlines to look after the sick. 747s have beds and oxygen masks.
London heading for 1000 cases If it is shut down they need to stop people escaping to the country
It was closing the schools/universities here that led to the spread from Madrid to the Costas.
Does it remain sensible to manage the response from London? A lot of civil servants commute. I get that the PM will want to stay out but a lot of the COBR and DHSC work could relocate.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Sounds persuasive, and more than one hotel chain has volunteered (perhaps because they can't fiill their rooms any other way, but whatever the motive it seems helpful). Is anyone here in close enough touch with decision-makers to suggest it?
I think the Chinese funnel model works. Fever clinic, If test positive, fever hospital, If deteriorating, then Acute hospital, If deteriorating further, ICU.
It all is dependant on accurate diagnosis and testing. We have neither at present.
My understanding of the Chinese funnel model isn't accurate diagnosis off the bat, rather at the start of the funnel it is using quick and dirty methods to rule people out.
So they have a series of steps where they aren't performing test for coronavirus, rather a series of other things that quickly eliminate individuals who definitely don't have it.
It is only after a number of steps do they then test for coronavirus.
South Korea is more direct, the road side quick test, and if you test positive on that you get funnelled to the gold standard one.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Yes; they're empty, so rates should be very low. Start with the Ritz, Claridges and the Dorchester?
Airport hotels are empty, and easier to Isolate with roadblocks.
Pay the airlines to look after the sick. 747s have beds and oxygen masks.
Are those masks sufficient? They seem puny in comparison to hospital ventilators.
Jessica Potter (@DrJessPotter) is a respiratory specialist doctor working in London and a member of EveryDoctor, an organization that campaigns for the working rights of doctors.
It was a bit of an anti-Tory rant to be honest
You might have to get used to that for a bit.
Have you read it? It was "under-funded, under-paid, under-appreciated" staff. Could have been written any time, any place. Just her standard rant with a bit of coronavirus added on.
I'm really irritated with people trying to make political points at this stage
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Yes; they're empty, so rates should be very low. Start with the Ritz, Claridges and the Dorchester?
Airport hotels are empty, and easier to Isolate with roadblocks.
Pay the airlines to look after the sick. 747s have beds and oxygen masks.
The oxygen on planes is generated by chemical reaction. It only lasts about 10 minutes.
oh fuck - Doctors just told son they cant get him a repeat prescription
Even at this early stage.....
Yeah... I’ve been struggling with that too.
Eh? They can't get him a repeat prescription? Why?
When I calmed down from the initial panic and thought about it I thought it didn't make sense to me.
I have asked him to get the prescription from the Docs and we would ring around to see if anyone has the meds.
There’s a lot of deck clearing going on. My wife and I have both had (originally GP requested) follow up appointments cancelled indefinitely; and I’ve had a diagnostic blood test cancelled. I was also asked if my current prescription was “ok” and when I said “for the most part” asked to stick with it rather than discuss it. Not normal things.
Not so much worried for myself but some things are going to start slipping through the cracks.
Yep. That is what we are up to this week. Pretty much all long term follow up outpatients have been postponed, or shortly will be. Who knows when we see them again.
The recorded fatalities will only be part of the story.
I still think use uni campus rather than hotels. All the students have gone, and normally they use the halls to host all those conferences over the summer, which obviously won't be happening.
No bog roll, dried pasta, soap or fresh milk in Tesco but everything else seemed available.
Bog roll, soap and fresh milk available in the nearby village shop - didn't look for dried pasta.
Two unconnected people off at work with symptoms from under a hundred - this is way more widespread than the official figures suggest.
Possibly but what is the base rate of normal illnesses? I've got two friends self-isolating with what at first glance looks like anti-Covid-19: persistent "wet" (not dry) coughs and for one a lower than normal temperature. Both are ill but with what?
There's always the possibility of hypochondriacs and skivvers trying to abuse the system but in these cases I think they're being honest.
3 things. 1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today. 2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
I wouldn't use China as a benchmark in this at all.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
People who in Germany or Scandinavia would be admitted to hospital are being told to stay at home, as for normal flu. That's my impression. If they recover, they don't count as a COVID-19 case.
Taiwan's statistics are impressive - population 24 million, 100 cases, one death. or if scaled up to the UK population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
It is indeed. The concentration of patients in fever hospitals is an effective break of transmission. Not just good for the figures, it will significantly lower the peak.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Yes; they're empty, so rates should be very low. Start with the Ritz, Claridges and the Dorchester?
Airport hotels are empty, and easier to Isolate with roadblocks.
Pay the airlines to look after the sick. 747s have beds and oxygen masks.
The oxygen on planes is generated by chemical reaction. It only lasts about 10 minutes.
I know. But who knows with a bit of ingenuity you might be able to rig up tanks. At least it gives airlines a way to earn money.
NOTE TO ALL POSTERS. PLEASE BE POLITE. PLEASE BE MEASURED. PLEASE BE AT LEAST ONE THIRD SOBER.
HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
I’ve only broken six of those. I’ve yet to criticise Radiohead.
Jessica Potter (@DrJessPotter) is a respiratory specialist doctor working in London and a member of EveryDoctor, an organization that campaigns for the working rights of doctors.
It was a bit of an anti-Tory rant to be honest
You might have to get used to that for a bit.
Have you read it? It was "under-funded, under-paid, under-appreciated" staff. Could have been written any time, any place. Just her standard rant with a bit of coronavirus added on.
I'm really irritated with people trying to make political points at this stage
You’re going to need a thick skin if the financial crisis is anything to go by.
Apparently the 475 deaths excludes data from Parma and Campania. Parma has reported 34 new deaths, so Italy becomes the first nation to officially pass 500 deaths in a day.
Given that Italy is probably about the average temperature we can expect come the summer, that doesn't bode terribly well.
I'm starting to think I was unfair to Eadric. (I'll never hear the last of it if he sees this comment...)
To be honest if we top out at 500 deaths a day we will have done quite well. That would probably keep us under 25k. The growth in Italy’s death toll is no longer exponential. If they are a week away the maximum might be 750. Absolutely horrific but a long, long way away from millions.
On an ordinary day in ordinary times there are about 1,700 UK deaths each day. If the max due to Covid 19 is 750 per day, and this is the peak which begins to decline rapidly, and quite a lot of the deaths would in fact have occurred within a fairly short time anyway because of other underlying problems, we would get away fairly lightly in mortality terms.
I think that non CV deaths may also increase as our health service and care services come under serious strain but yes our overall population will still increase this year.
Any views on whether there will be a baby boom, a baby dearth or steady as she goes 9 months after the crisis period, peak lockdown, maximum panic etc (whenever that is timed to be).
NOTE TO ALL POSTERS. PLEASE BE POLITE. PLEASE BE MEASURED. PLEASE BE AT LEAST ONE THIRD SOBER.
HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
I was talking to this Albanian taxi driver, who shut off the radio because they started playing Radiohead. He was just finishing a pineapple pizza when I got in the cab - said it redefined the peak of the culinary arts. He was also telling me about how he studying Comp Sci at night school and thought that the coursework was rubbish - Python is for kiddyscripters. The he got onto European history.....
LOL
Thank you, thank you so much!
I was just trying to wright that myself, but yours in much better.
I forgot to mention that we discussed my belief that Australia is a hoax. Denying historical events is for losers. Real wingnuts deny the existence of entire continents.
So we are supposed to believe that a bunch of convicts dumped on a virtually un-inhibitable desert built a liberal democratic country? A place where mammals lay eggs. Where swans are black....
If Australia is a hoax, then where the hell is my sister, who claims to be shut in a Melbourne hotel for the next 14 days?
NOTE TO ALL POSTERS. PLEASE BE POLITE. PLEASE BE MEASURED. PLEASE BE AT LEAST ONE THIRD SOBER.
HERE ARE THE RULES:
1. DO NOT SWEAR AT OTHER POSTERS 2. DO NOT CALL OTHER POSTERS NAMES 3. DO NOT SPECULATE ON THE REAL WORLD IDENTITY OF OTHER POSTERS 4. DO NOT CRITICISE RADIOHEAD 5. DO NOT INVENT STORIES ABOUT TALKING TO ALBANIAN TAXI DRIVERS 6. DO NOT ACCUSE OTHER POSTERS OF LYING WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE 7. DO NOT INCITE THE PLACING OF PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA 8. DO NOT SPREAD HOLOCAUST DENIAL 9. DO NOT PRETEND THAT THERE ARE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES BETTER THAN PYTHON 10. DO NOT POST MORE THAN ABOUT TEN TWEETS A DAY
There may be more that I will need to invent.
I was talking to this Albanian taxi driver, who shut off the radio because they started playing Radiohead. He was just finishing a pineapple pizza when I got in the cab - said it redefined the peak of the culinary arts. He was also telling me about how he studying Comp Sci at night school and thought that the coursework was rubbish - Python is for kiddyscripters. The he got onto European history.....
LOL
Thank you, thank you so much!
I was just trying to wright that myself, but yours in much better.
I forgot to mention that we discussed my belief that Australia is a hoax. Denying historical events is for losers. Real wingnuts deny the existence of entire continents.
So we are supposed to believe that a bunch of convicts dumped on a virtually un-inhibitable desert built a liberal democratic country? A place where mammals lay eggs. Where swans are black....
If Australia is a hoax, then where the hell is my sister, who claims to be shut in a Melbourne hotel for the next 14 days?
Jessica Potter (@DrJessPotter) is a respiratory specialist doctor working in London and a member of EveryDoctor, an organization that campaigns for the working rights of doctors.
It was a bit of an anti-Tory rant to be honest
You might have to get used to that for a bit.
Have you read it? It was "under-funded, under-paid, under-appreciated" staff. Could have been written any time, any place. Just her standard rant with a bit of coronavirus added on.
I'm really irritated with people trying to make political points at this stage
It was too political. But we as a society need to face up to some brutal choices about our decisions. This pandemic will force that upon us.
We can't offer universal health care on our current (old) tax take. It's impossible. We have a health care system that is hollowed out as a consequence. Public health in particular has been hollowed out.
But but but it gets a budget increase each year. Yes not enough, not enough by a long long way. This message will be brutally clear over the next few weeks and months. Get used to it.
oh fuck - Doctors just told son they cant get him a repeat prescription
Even at this early stage.....
Yeah... I’ve been struggling with that too.
Eh? They can't get him a repeat prescription? Why?
When I calmed down from the initial panic and thought about it I thought it didn't make sense to me.
I have asked him to get the prescription from the Docs and we would ring around to see if anyone has the meds.
There’s a lot of deck clearing going on. My wife and I have both had (originally GP requested) follow up appointments cancelled indefinitely; and I’ve had a diagnostic blood test cancelled. I was also asked if my current prescription was “ok” and when I said “for the most part” asked to stick with it rather than discuss it. Not normal things.
Not so much worried for myself but some things are going to start slipping through the cracks.
Yep. That is what we are up to this week. Pretty much all long term follow up outpatients have been postponed, or shortly will be. Who knows when we see them again.
The recorded fatalities will only be part of the story.
I’m hoping the old and vulnerable got a different message from me. If I think there’s something seriously wrong I’ll push for treatment through the various triage processes; but they might not. Appreciate It’s an impossible situation (though I query whether GPs are under quite the same pressure as hospitals, given that suspected cases shouldn’t go anywhere near the surgery).
Comments
On an ordinary day in ordinary times there are about 1,700 UK deaths each day. If the max due to Covid 19 is 750 per day, and this is the peak which begins to decline rapidly, and quite a lot of the deaths would in fact have occurred within a fairly short time anyway because of other underlying problems, we would get away fairly lightly in mortality terms.
=
Billion Dollar Babies......
Pure luck - I got it last Wednesday.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=CHF&view=1Y
perhaps the markets have reasided what a stupid thing this £300 Billion, bribe to ourselves thing is
21:05
"We must unite around the same objective: to overcome this serious situation," said the king, who calls for a "collective effort." "Each and every one of us is part of the solution to this crisis," he added.
21:03
Felipe VI praises the work of health professionals: "You are the vanguard of Spain in the fight against this disease, you are our first line of defense."
1. I think the Government and BJ are getting much better I would go as far as to say the PM was very good today.
2 Why is our death rate still so high compared to others at 4%? Germany incredibly low but even compared to France the USA and many others we are very high I dont really know why.
3 We seem to think 20000 deaths is a good outcome. That is 6 times more than China and our population is far smaller. Expectation management or grim reality?
And there was a first death from sub-saharan Africa in Burkina Faso. If it takes hold in poor countries it will be apocalyptic I think. The rich nations who might help wont be feeling so rich very soon.
i) You really can't believe their numbers
ii) They used measures that I think Western Liberal countries will not undertake.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51953883
At that point an elderly gentleman from the back shouted out, @we have all done that before'
I don't think I have laughed so much in years.
Anecdotally I know more people untested with it than either negative or positive testers.
https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/covid19-novel-coronavirus
Taiwan's statistics are impressive -
population 24 million, 100 cases, one death.
or if scaled up to the UK
population 66 million, 275 cases, three deaths.
It's a democracy, unlike China.
Compared to Taiwan, 20,000 UK deaths is grotesque.
There are no good economists. They've yet to work it out. Obviously if you have enough of them then you'll find that one of them predicted the price of eggs. Not so obviously you'll also find that there's not a tied-shoelace among them.
For the time being, contacting your friendly economist for wise words is much akin to chatting with your local sooth-sayer.
Please look into this loophole as a matter of urgency.
https://twitter.com/diegoareinero/status/1239986811344224257
(NB, that's a serious question. Is that a condition that complicates things?)
It was pepperoni.
We haven't got the bed capacity for that though taking over some hotels for the purpose would be easy enough.
Tories will have no money to buy them off you.
good video on it if interested.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFxmiV2_OHs
No bog roll, dried pasta, soap or fresh milk in Tesco but everything else seemed available.
Bog roll, soap and fresh milk available in the nearby village shop - didn't look for dried pasta.
Two unconnected people off at work with symptoms from under a hundred - this is way more widespread than the official figures suggest.
Chisolm to Arthur Daley - "you've got more rabbit than Watership Down"
Clearly a good result - but they were playing with a different hand of cards
I have asked him to get the prescription from the Docs and we would ring around to see if anyone has the meds.
https://www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-should-gcses-and-levels-be-cancelled
Remember when I was writing about the 'pre-virus' that had infected the West: the ignorance and apathy? Well because we didn't treat the pre-virus we are now going to get a bad dose of the real one.
As you can tell. I'm feeling mightily pissed off today. The government and our experts in conjunction have made a serious boo boo here. The news will be the most brutal since WW2.
Fever clinic,
If test positive, fever hospital,
If deteriorating, then Acute hospital,
If deteriorating further, ICU.
It all is dependant on accurate diagnosis and testing. We have neither at present.
It was a bit of an anti-Tory rant to be honest
Not so much worried for myself but some things are going to start slipping through the cracks.
So they have a series of steps where they aren't performing test for coronavirus, rather a series of other things that quickly eliminate individuals who definitely don't have it.
It is only after a number of steps do they then test for coronavirus.
South Korea is more direct, the road side quick test, and if you test positive on that you get funnelled to the gold standard one.
I'm really irritated with people trying to make political points at this stage
Over the weekend, the supermarkets were cleared out and there were lines at the door.
Now, the supermarkets are open, have food, but there are few people venturing out. I didn't check the toilet roll status.
The recorded fatalities will only be part of the story.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROW1ArJtXWk
Who do you think is the better Mark Antony ?
Charlton Heston:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bi1PvXCbr8
or Marlon Brando:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=101sKhH-lMQ
For me its Charlton Heston.
We can't offer universal health care on our current (old) tax take. It's impossible. We have a health care system that is hollowed out as a consequence. Public health in particular has been hollowed out.
But but but it gets a budget increase each year. Yes not enough, not enough by a long long way. This message will be brutally clear over the next few weeks and months. Get used to it.