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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Compulsory house arrest for the 70+group risks causing seconda

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Compulsory house arrest for the 70+group risks causing secondary physical and mental health problems for otherwise healthy individuals

community links. You can’t just issue a 4-month quarantine order to them without explaining how they’re supposed to spend their time/get fresh air/physical and mental exercise. This risks secondary physical and mental health issues from an otherwise healthy population. Am not

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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    First!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    but it’s going to need to be introduced with thought, care and planning. Secondly, for the over 70s who currently need social care - who is going to look after them? How do you stop a career with several visits in one day

    Indeed - which is why dribbling it out to Peston is how NOT to do it. Once issues like those above have been addressed, communicate clearly - now all its doing is raise questions....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    CarlottaVance said:

    First!

    Into lockdown ?

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    I can report local Sainsbury’s in South Glos. I have never seen anything like it. It’s normally sleepy hollow before 10 on Sunday, there wasn’t anywhere to park. Some people had brought trailers. I made a quite sensible list, could get none of it. It’s eerie seeing tin isle with bare shelves. So I just bought random stuff that vaguely made sense thinking I couldn’t walk out with an empty bag. The man on checkout said they took more yesterday than any day at Christmas.

    The money you shifting out of airlines should already be in supermarkets, this is what they’ve always wanted, us to clear shelves and store it ourselves?

    Saddest of all the big food bank box on way out, normally full and over spilt, completely bare.

    We’re alright. So that’s okay.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQWd1z7rwXQ
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    another_richard said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/rogermosey/status/1239143671431299073

    Do we want them to do the work or prepare for press conferences?
    That's the point. They need to do both.

    The greatest strategy in the World is going to fail if they don't bring the public with them, and right now they are fucking that up.
    Your evidence for that is ?

    Let me guess ...

    ... a tweet.
    Everyone is now clamouring for stronger measures. A few days ago the response would have been "fuck that, it's just like getting a cold". They're playing games with our heads. Personally I'd like a last parkrun on Saturday before the ban hammer comes down.
    Before the lockdown I am doing two things whilst I still can
    1. Eat, drink and be merry
    2. Running 5k a day in the gym to start the day
    If you are big into working out, probably worth ordering some kit you can continue to do things at home. Kettlebell is very good.
    Yes, I need that advice! thankyou. I really miss the gym, it kept me sane and healthy

    Anything else I could order in?
    I would have a look round YouTube, there are loads of home / garden workouts. See which you think you can do and order whatever kit they use, but normally its not much more than couple of dumb-bells, a mat and a kettle-bell.

    You can really have a hard HIIT style workout with just body-weight exercises. I like the kettlebell you can then combine the HIIT body-weight stuff with some explosive weight-lifting motions.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    egg said:

    I can report local Sainsbury’s in South Glos. I have never seen anything like it. It’s normally sleepy hollow before 10 on Sunday, there wasn’t anywhere to park. Some people had brought trailers. I made a quite sensible list, could get none of it. It’s eerie seeing tin isle with bare shelves. So I just bought random stuff that vaguely made sense thinking I couldn’t walk out with an empty bag. The man on checkout said they took more yesterday than any day at Christmas.

    The money you shifting out of airlines should already be in supermarkets, this is what they’ve always wanted, us to clear shelves and store it ourselves?

    Saddest of all the big food bank box on way out, normally full and over spilt, completely bare.

    We’re alright. So that’s okay.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQWd1z7rwXQ

    I went into Iceland to get some food for my won who is in self isolation.

    Other than toilet roll (which ASDA had loads of this morning I hear - we got everything we wanted to get him
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    Thanks for the advice FPT on gym replacement kit for the home...

    For anyone with time on their hands (i.e. all of us), this is well worth a watch:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09qjl7d/the-truth-about-15-getting-fit
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317
    There are at least three groups:-

    1. Those who are working - whether from home or otherwise.
    2. Those who are retired.
    3. Those who are frail and need regular care visits for personal care/cooking etc.

    The first two should not be compulsorily quarantined but advised about what measures they should take to reduce their risks. The risk cannot be eliminated but only very significantly reduced and that may be the best we can hope for.

    Also many will live with others who are younger than 70 and it is simply not realistic for them to isolate themselves from family members completely.

    3. is the category where sensible measures are needed. You cannot isolate such people with no care. So how are they provided with the care they need from people younger than them?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    eadric said:

    Thanks for the advice FPT on gym replacement kit for the home...

    An innovative fitness solution:

    https://twitter.com/gautamtrivedi_/status/1239180501665099776?s=21
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    eadric said:

    Thanks for the advice FPT on gym replacement kit for the home...

    At the moment I am entirely focused on Cardio - so I'm not doing any of the other things that I could be doing, just running. Which if we get to "lockdown" I can do outdoors (if the weather improves - I am not a cold/wind/rain/dark runner...) by running away from Other People
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Who would enforce such a measure? Are shops going to refuse to admit people who appear to be 70 plus? Many 70 year olds carry their years very lightly and would be mistaken for 60 year olds.The opposite is also sometimes true..Only when people approach 80 can we be entirely confident that they have reached 70.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    If the peak is going to be May-June, then the likely 0ver-70s home stay would probably be April-July if its 4 months - so they should be careful they don't get stampeded into going too early with over 70s coming out again at the time of peak infection.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    My mother in law was here today. She is in her early 80s and has enough underlying health problems to be obviously vulnerable. She had been at her church which she loves but recognises that may be the last time for quite some time.

    We will do shopping for her and she will no doubt continue to speak to her grandchildren by phone every day but it is going to be a very lonely life. Her much missed husband died a few years ago of Alzheimer's. The love and care she gave him was remarkable but she could not possibly have coped without teams of carers who came to lift him out of his bed in the morning and then hoisted him back in at night. As Mike says there are many, many people like this and I really do not know how they can possibly be isolated. Those who do this work going from one vulnerable person to the next are an obvious hazard.

    The only solution I can think of is that many of those who are being helped to be at home will need to be in a centralised location with dedicated staff who remain on site, effectively a sealed community. I have few ideas about where we are going to find such facilities but empty hotels may be a possibility.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/uksciencechief/status/1239174476815831040?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    justin124 said:

    Who would enforce such a measure? Are shops going to refuse to admit people who appear to be 70 plus? Many 70 year olds carry their years very lightly and would be mistaken for 60 year olds.The opposite is also sometimes true..Only when people approach 80 can we be entirely confident that they have reached 70.

    You would hope that over 70s would get the message that this is life threatening if you get it so they won't be venturing out.

    Its like asking who enforced everybody getting in a bomb shelter in WWII....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    The review of the new data showed that as anticipated the epidemic is progressing and on that basis SAGE advised the next planned effective interventions (shielding the vulnerable and household isolation) will need to be instituted soon.

    SAGE is examining models of further interventions. SAGE also agreed that in line with good scientific practice the modelling and data considered by SAGE in future will be published.

    Can all the tw@ts saying the government are trying to secretly kill us all because they are keeping all the data secret now shut up.

    My only worry is the scientifically illiterate journalists are going to read this stuff, find a particularly big bad sounding number and just bang on and on and on about it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    Don't blame me. Upthread I have been quite complimentary to Boris, explaining if Corbyn had been in charge we would all be under house arrest by now.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    williamglenn said:

    eadric said:

    Thanks for the advice FPT on gym replacement kit for the home...

    An innovative fitness solution:

    https://twitter.com/gautamtrivedi_/status/1239180501665099776?s=21
    That is wonderful
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    Don't blame me. Upthread I have been quite complimentary to Boris, explaining if Corbyn had been in charge we would all be under house arrest by now.
    I wasn't. I am more infuriated by sections of the media pumping out and amplifying misleading information.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Matt Hancock wasn't the only one writing in the papers today:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11175669/coronavirus-fight-national-effort-sir-patrick-vallance/amp/
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    Social distancing should include social media.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    eadric said:

    Supermarket front line in central-ish London:

    the queue for our local Aldi was out the door and halfway down the High Street at 10am this morning

    I am glad I am not in London. If this all goes south it sound get very messy. You only have to look at the London Riots when the police didn't crack down for a couple of days.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    OT: self-isolation for any age group is going to be a horrific scenario for people experiencing domestic abuse.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    justin124 said:

    Who would enforce such a measure? Are shops going to refuse to admit people who appear to be 70 plus? Many 70 year olds carry their years very lightly and would be mistaken for 60 year olds.The opposite is also sometimes true..Only when people approach 80 can we be entirely confident that they have reached 70.

    You would hope that over 70s would get the message that this is life threatening if you get it so they won't be venturing out.

    Its like asking who enforced everybody getting in a bomb shelter in WWII....
    Fair enough - though not everybody went to the bomb shelters . The real point is that to a very large extent such a system would have to rely on voluntary compliance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    If the apostrophe police didn’t catch you first.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    If we oldies are to be kept indoors it would soften the blow if the recently restored TV Licence Fee were removed. Also some thought could be given to the idea that terrestrial tv's natural audience is precisely the senior citizenry rather than the yoof.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    justin124 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    justin124 said:

    Who would enforce such a measure? Are shops going to refuse to admit people who appear to be 70 plus? Many 70 year olds carry their years very lightly and would be mistaken for 60 year olds.The opposite is also sometimes true..Only when people approach 80 can we be entirely confident that they have reached 70.

    You would hope that over 70s would get the message that this is life threatening if you get it so they won't be venturing out.

    Its like asking who enforced everybody getting in a bomb shelter in WWII....
    Fair enough - though not everybody went to the bomb shelters . The real point is that to a very large extent such a system would have to rely on voluntary compliance.
    Correct. We thankfully aren't China and people won't be welded into their own homes. I am hoping that 99% of oldies stick to it (and that the government puts in place systems to ensure they are ok).

    If people are willing to take that risk, well that's on them. But they are not only putting themselves in danger, they are endangering all of us, because the more strain on the system, the more who will die.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    Which would be a good reason for removing them to be replaced by a figure enjoying much greater public confidence - similar to Chamberlain making way for Churchill in May 1940.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    Don't blame me. Upthread I have been quite complimentary to Boris, explaining if Corbyn had been in charge we would all be under house arrest by now.
    I wasn't. I am more infuriated by sections of the media pumping out and amplifying misleading information.
    I also think that 24 hour network news has a role in ramping up the fear factor. If on the 7 am bulletin some moronic reporter looking for an angle can say a supermarket has already reported selling a fourpack of toilet rolls and they are not expecting a delivery ffor 48 hours, the shelves will be empty by 1pm giving rise to an even bigger story.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    When people wonder why face masks aren't effective...From Cyprus.


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    If you live with a 70 year old are you going to have to go into quarantine as well?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    Don't blame me. Upthread I have been quite complimentary to Boris, explaining if Corbyn had been in charge we would all be under house arrest by now.
    I wasn't. I am more infuriated by sections of the media pumping out and amplifying misleading information.
    I also think that 24 hour network news has a role in ramping up the fear factor. If on the 7 am bulletin some moronic reporter looking for an angle can say a supermarket has already reported selling a fourpack of toilet rolls and they are not expecting a delivery ffor 48 hours, the shelves will be empty by 1pm giving rise to an even bigger story.
    Rather than looking for outrage "clicks, they could and should be educating the public and in doing so saving lives.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    justin124 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    Which would be a good reason for removing them to be replaced by a figure enjoying much greater public confidence - similar to Chamberlain making way for Churchill in May 1940.
    I can't think of anyone who could take on that role from the current Tory party. My understanding is Hunt is not well liked by the medical fraternity who need to be on board.

    Maybe from recent history, Cameron quickly elevated to the Lords?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Mexicanpete said:

    justin124 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    Which would be a good reason for removing them to be replaced by a figure enjoying much greater public confidence - similar to Chamberlain making way for Churchill in May 1940.
    I can't think of anyone who could take on that role from the current Tory party. My understanding is Hunt is not well liked by the medical fraternity who need to be on board.

    Maybe from recent history, Cameron quickly elevated to the Lords?
    Cameron isn't exactly known for wanting to work too hard.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    Don't blame me. Upthread I have been quite complimentary to Boris, explaining if Corbyn had been in charge we would all be under house arrest by now.
    I wasn't. I am more infuriated by sections of the media pumping out and amplifying misleading information.
    I also think that 24 hour network news has a role in ramping up the fear factor. If on the 7 am bulletin some moronic reporter looking for an angle can say a supermarket has already reported selling a fourpack of toilet rolls and they are not expecting a delivery ffor 48 hours, the shelves will be empty by 1pm giving rise to an even bigger story.
    Rather than looking for outrage "clicks, they could and should be educating the public and in doing so saving lives.
    Absolutely.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited March 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    When people wonder why face masks aren't effective...From Cyprus.


    Ask an expert to confirm before adopting this style, but - that might actually work? IIUC the main point of these masks is that of you cough it'll catch it and avoid it landing on someone else. I guess something might fly out of your nose at the same time but it'll be a big help, no? Better than having it over your nose and taking it off all the time because it's misting up your glasses...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    justin124 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    justin124 said:

    Who would enforce such a measure? Are shops going to refuse to admit people who appear to be 70 plus? Many 70 year olds carry their years very lightly and would be mistaken for 60 year olds.The opposite is also sometimes true..Only when people approach 80 can we be entirely confident that they have reached 70.

    You would hope that over 70s would get the message that this is life threatening if you get it so they won't be venturing out.

    Its like asking who enforced everybody getting in a bomb shelter in WWII....
    Fair enough - though not everybody went to the bomb shelters . The real point is that to a very large extent such a system would have to rely on voluntary compliance.
    Quite. It will be voluntary, not compulsory.

    The theory is good. You relieve the NHS of the vast majority of the additional virus demands on it, while protecting the health of the most vulnerable.  And you have minimal economic impact.  And when most of the younger population have had the disease, and the oldies are released, the epidemic probably won't take off again.

    The practice will be patchy but if only 75% of oldies follow it, it will have a beneficial effect. The 25% who don't follow the advice will generally be fit and healthy (or have dogs).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    Supermarket front line in central-ish London:

    the queue for our local Aldi was out the door and halfway down the High Street at 10am this morning

    I am glad I am not in London. If this all goes south it sound get very messy. You only have to look at the London Riots when the police didn't crack down for a couple of days.
    That was my experience of crisis management, being involved with running a London Borough during the riots, which broke out locally outside my office window one evening, with me having to be evacuated from the town hall. Next day our emergency Borough plan was triggered. We had directions from government, I went to Scotland Yard for a senior level briefing from the Met, we had to make decisions about service provision, brainstorm plans for all sorts of serious eventualities, deal with the media, concerned businesses, and some very frightened residents, and liaise with the Borough Police Commander and local health services several times a day.

    For a day or two the police had retreated from parts of the capital and to many people it looked as if society might be about to break down. Thankfully, instead, things relatively quickly returned to normal. But it was a valuable lesson on how fragile the many things we all take for granted about our lifestyle really are.

    And hopefully has given me a little insight as to the life our government ministers are living right now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited March 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    justin124 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.

    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?

    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    Which would be a good reason for removing them to be replaced by a figure enjoying much greater public confidence - similar to Chamberlain making way for Churchill in May 1940.
    I can't think of anyone who could take on that role from the current Tory party. My understanding is Hunt is not well liked by the medical fraternity who need to be on board.

    Maybe from recent history, Cameron quickly elevated to the Lords?
    Cameron isn't exactly known for wanting to work too hard.
    Lazy maybe, to non-Tories like me he still retains a certain gravitas nonetheless, Brexit notwithstanding.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Really?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1239198573016817665?s=20
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    That new upthread that Germany is closing its borders is now in the Guardian.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Spain says deaths from the coronavirus have more than doubled in a day to 288, with the number of infections near 8,000, Associated Press reports.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited March 2020
    Is there anything wrong with people over 70 getting in a car, driving around (with the windows closed) for a short time to have a change of scenery, and then returning to their home?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1239202990369705984?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    CarlottaVance said:

    Really?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1239198573016817665?s=20

    They have tons of test kits, now, but very limited lab capacity to process them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything wrong with people over 70 getting in a car, driving around (with the windows closed) for a short time to have a change of scenery, and then returning to their home?

    I think one concern I would have is anybody who has come and rung your doorbell, touched the door handle, coughed on your car. So you pop out and end up touching all those things.

    Also, I think you have to break habits. If you are used to popping out in the car and you usually pop into the shop, it is very hard to not instinctively do that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1239174708081328129
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
    Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited March 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    justin124 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    justin124 said:

    Who would enforce such a measure? Are shops going to refuse to admit people who appear to be 70 plus? Many 70 year olds carry their years very lightly and would be mistaken for 60 year olds.The opposite is also sometimes true..Only when people approach 80 can we be entirely confident that they have reached 70.

    You would hope that over 70s would get the message that this is life threatening if you get it so they won't be venturing out.

    Its like asking who enforced everybody getting in a bomb shelter in WWII....
    Fair enough - though not everybody went to the bomb shelters . The real point is that to a very large extent such a system would have to rely on voluntary compliance.
    Correct. We thankfully aren't China and people won't be welded into their own homes. I am hoping that 99% of oldies stick to it (and that the government puts in place systems to ensure they are ok).

    If people are willing to take that risk, well that's on them. But they are not only putting themselves in danger, they are endangering all of us, because the more strain on the system, the more who will die.
    My concern is that there's a fairly lengthy list of older people who may find complete quarantine impossible to stick to:

    * Anyone who can't order online shopping (because the system is totally overloaded, or they're computer illiterate) and doesn't have local friends or family willing and able to fetch and carry for them. Unless the Government has a comprehensive system for bailing them out then it'll be impossible for them to avoid going out
    * Dog owners: the temptation for them to take Rover walkies is going to be immense. If they're flat-dwellers who keep a little terrier about the place then they're virtually certain to do it. The obvious solution in that case is for the police or army to confiscate the dogs and shoot them, but this would be sub-optimal in PR terms
    * Those with spouses or even more ancient parents in care homes, who won't be able to bear not going to visit them for months

    There'll also be a significant number of families with pre-school children where working parents are totally reliant on Granny as a babysitter and can't afford to do without her. The pressure on them to violate self-isolation will be enormous, and the problem will get an order of magnitude greater if schools and nurseries close, which is one of the major reasons why the Government appears determined to avoid that for as long as possible.

    One can only hope that the boffins have allowed for this sort of behaviour in their modelling, or else the rate of disease transmission may be much higher than the authorities are banking on.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Urgent efforts to repatriate 30,000 British tourists from ski resorts in France are under way amid warnings of “widespread failures” in the travel sector in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.

    French mountain resorts closed at midnight on Saturday, hours after tens of thousands of skiers had landed for their annual holiday in the snow.

    Leading ski and summer activity holiday company Neilson has called for the government to step in with “emergency measures”.

    There were reports of chaos and confusion across the Alps with one source saying local police had taken the French government’s message into their own hands and were going round hotels and restaurants telling marooned Britons to go home immediately.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-chaos-as-30000-british-tourists-told-to-leave-french-ski-resorts
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Black_Rook said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    justin124 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    justin124 said:

    Who would enforce such a measure? Are shops going to refuse to admit people who appear to be 70 plus? Many 70 year olds carry their years very lightly and would be mistaken for 60 year olds.The opposite is also sometimes true..Only when people approach 80 can we be entirely confident that they have reached 70.

    You would hope that over 70s would get the message that this is life threatening if you get it so they won't be venturing out.

    Its like asking who enforced everybody getting in a bomb shelter in WWII....
    Fair enough - though not everybody went to the bomb shelters . The real point is that to a very large extent such a system would have to rely on voluntary compliance.
    Correct. We thankfully aren't China and people won't be welded into their own homes. I am hoping that 99% of oldies stick to it (and that the government puts in place systems to ensure they are ok).

    If people are willing to take that risk, well that's on them. But they are not only putting themselves in danger, they are endangering all of us, because the more strain on the system, the more who will die.
    My concern is that there's a fairly lengthy list of older people who may find complete quarantine impossible to stick to:

    * Anyone who can't order online shopping (because the system is totally overloaded, or they're computer illiterate) and doesn't have local friends or family willing and able to fetch and carry for them. Unless the Government has a comprehensive system for bailing them out then it'll be impossible for them to avoid going out
    * Dog owners: the temptation for them to take Rover walkies is going to be immense. If they're flat-dwellers who keep a little terrier about the place then they're virtually certain to do it. The obvious solution in that case is for the police or army to confiscate the dogs and shoot them, but this would run be sub-optimal in PR terms
    * Those with spouses or even more ancient parents in care homes, who won't be able to bear not going to visit them for months

    There'll also be a significant number of families with pre-school children where working parents are totally reliant on Granny as a babysitter and can't afford to do without her. The pressure on them to violate self-isolation will be enormous, and the problem will get an order of magnitude greater if schools and nurseries close, which is one of the major reasons why the Government appears determined to avoid that for as long as possible.

    One can only hope that the boffins have allowed for this sort of behaviour in their modelling, or else the rate of disease transmission may be much higher than the authorities are banking on.
    I think they are all valid concerns.

    Things like food, I really hope that the government will contact all oldies and ask can you cope and if not we will organize it for you.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rkrkrk said:

    I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
    Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-government-response
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    https://twitter.com/anshelpfeffer/status/1239202296715755521?s=21
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Just 31 new cases in Japan today after a spike yesterday, puts the average back on the steady 50 per day track. However anecdotally the testing sounds extremely shitty, people with all the symptoms getting denied tests...
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370
    edited March 2020
    There has been some discussion attributed to the government of bring back recently retired doctors and nurses to help with treating patients in the epidemic. However some of these could be over 70. Also some MPs are over the age of 70 including the current Father of the House. I wonder if there could be some exemptions to the quarantine for those who are working?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    So, it appears that the elderly and vulnerable will be quarantined soon. This quarantine likely to last four months, ie April-July, “the peak”.

    For rest of us, presume successive escalation of measures to try to manage load on health system, and damage to economy.

    UK will only move into mass lockdown if it looks like the situation is out of control - although it’s not clear to me why we believe we will not follow the same route as Italy, Spain, and France?

    By July it is hoped that sufficient of us have had the virus to confer a level of immunity, and the warmer weather may help as well.

    At that stage, relax measures.

    Repeat during winter?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    This is very good, very balanced and clear explanation. Actually having some bloke on who knows what they are talking about rather than reading out a letter signed by MSc maths student and lab techs...

    Sir Mark Walport, the UK government's former chief scientific adviser, explains the government’s response to COVID-19 and says ‘herd immunity’ is not the aim.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzvOwF48z4s
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Big jump in deaths in Spain.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1239203864680771590
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Over 50s number is shocking:

    https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1238908474219782145
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything wrong with people over 70 getting in a car, driving around (with the windows closed) for a short time to have a change of scenery, and then returning to their home?

    I think one concern I would have is anybody who has come and rung your doorbell, touched the door handle, coughed on your car. So you pop out and end up touching all those things.

    Also, I think you have to break habits. If you are used to popping out in the car and you usually pop into the shop, it is very hard to not instinctively do that.
    You just have to have dedicated pensioner only hours in the supermarket. Ensure hand gel and disposable plastic gloves available. They could also bring out reserved stocks of bog rolls, masks and hand sanitizer. As an aside Spain has allowed hairdressers and dry cleaners to stay open as the are essential to some people, particularly older females who have their hair done once a week.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    nichomar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything wrong with people over 70 getting in a car, driving around (with the windows closed) for a short time to have a change of scenery, and then returning to their home?

    I think one concern I would have is anybody who has come and rung your doorbell, touched the door handle, coughed on your car. So you pop out and end up touching all those things.

    Also, I think you have to break habits. If you are used to popping out in the car and you usually pop into the shop, it is very hard to not instinctively do that.
    You just have to have dedicated pensioner only hours in the supermarket. Ensure hand gel and disposable plastic gloves available. They could also bring out reserved stocks of bog rolls, masks and hand sanitizer. As an aside Spain has allowed hairdressers and dry cleaners to stay open as the are essential to some people, particularly older females who have their hair done once a week.
    I am not sure getting my hair done is top of the list of my priorities at the moment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Gabs3 said:

    Over 50s number is shocking:

    twitter.com/pbump/status/1238908474219782145

    But they are shit scared of Mexicans coming over the border, Islamist terrorists, sanders becoming president....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rkrkrk said:

    I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
    Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.

    The existing advice for the seven days' worth of self isolation for suspected cases is entitled "Stay at home" and explicitly states that "You cannot go for a walk."

    I assume this means that elderly and medically vulnerable self-isolators will also be trapped inside (unless they live in houses with enclosed back gardens, which will allow them to get outdoors without coming into contact or close to any other people.)

    You can therefore appreciate why the Government is stalling for as long as possible. It is a Draconian measure.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.
    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?
    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    You cannot expect people to support a project, and those who front it, if they do not believe in them.

    The Conservative leaders threw away any claim to authority and leadership when they resorted to lies, manipulation and general skulduggery to make a power grab.

    Churchill was, I think, essentially honest, though perhaps sometimes mistaken.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Black_Rook said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    justin124 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    justin124 said:

    Who would enforce such a measure? Are shops going to refuse to admit people who appear to be 70 plus? Many 70 year olds carry their years very lightly and would be mistaken for 60 year olds.The opposite is also sometimes true..Only when people approach 80 can we be entirely confident that they have reached 70.

    You would hope that over 70s would get the message that this is life threatening if you get it so they won't be venturing out.

    Its like asking who enforced everybody getting in a bomb shelter in WWII....
    Fair enough - though not everybody went to the bomb shelters . The real point is that to a very large extent such a system would have to rely on voluntary compliance.
    Correct. We thankfully aren't China and people won't be welded into their own homes. I am hoping that 99% of oldies stick to it (and that the government puts in place systems to ensure they are ok).

    If people are willing to take that risk, well that's on them. But they are not only putting themselves in danger, they are endangering all of us, because the more strain on the system, the more who will die.
    My concern is that there's a fairly lengthy list of older people who may find complete quarantine impossible to stick to:

    * Anyone who can't order online shopping (because the system is totally overloaded, or they're computer illiterate) and doesn't have local friends or family willing and able to fetch and carry for them. Unless the Government has a comprehensive system for bailing them out then it'll be impossible for them to avoid going out
    * Dog owners: the temptation for them to take Rover walkies is going to be immense. If they're flat-dwellers who keep a little terrier about the place then they're virtually certain to do it. The obvious solution in that case is for the police or army to confiscate the dogs and shoot them, but this would be sub-optimal in PR terms
    * Those with spouses or even more ancient parents in care homes, who won't be able to bear not going to visit them for months

    There'll also be a significant number of families with pre-school children where working parents are totally reliant on Granny as a babysitter and can't afford to do without her. The pressure on them to violate self-isolation will be enormous, and the problem will get an order of magnitude greater if schools and nurseries close, which is one of the major reasons why the Government appears determined to avoid that for as long as possible.

    One can only hope that the boffins have allowed for this sort of behaviour in their modelling, or else the rate of disease transmission may be much higher than the authorities are banking on.
    fox327 said:

    There has been some discussion attributed to the government of bring back recently retired doctors and nurses to help with treating patients in the epidemic. However some of these could be over 70. Also some MPs are over the age of 70 including the current Father of the House. I wonder if there could be some exemptions to the quarantine for those who are working?

    Does anyone living with elderly relatives have to go into quarantine with them? And how do people get food?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Just as well Labour are about to replace its leader with an under 70 model.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    ClippP said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Henrietta00 said:

    FPT

    Mexicanpete said:

    My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!

    The Financial Times is wrong. Someone searched Dominic Cummings's blog for the string "epidemiology" and found the quote "I am particularly interested in public health and the field of epidemiology", but in actual fact that wasn't written by him but by a brain-dumper commenter called Frances.
    I stand corrected. Fake news from the FT, who would have thought it?
    I suspect in his own mind Dom is an expert epidemiologist anyway.
    If it was Boris / Big Dom in charge during WWII, the Nazi's wouldn't have needed a propaganda machine, they could have just relied on all those whose hatred of those two overrides everything to do their job for them.
    You cannot expect people to support a project, and those who front it, if they do not believe in them.

    The Conservative leaders threw away any claim to authority and leadership when they resorted to lies, manipulation and general skulduggery to make a power grab.

    Churchill was, I think, essentially honest, though perhaps sometimes mistaken.
    Boris has nothing to do with "the project". It is the CMO / CSO who have crafted this plan and those in the media and blue check marks on twitter pushing misinformation well know this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    dr_spyn said:

    Just as well Labour are about to replace its leader with an under 70 model.

    What a terrible shame not to see or hear from Jezza for 4 months. I imagine in the middle of it, he would still be asking questions about how will Mauren from Margate cope not being able to go to bingo once a week. This government strategy is cruel and dehumanising.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Black_Rook said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
    Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.

    The existing advice for the seven days' worth of self isolation for suspected cases is entitled "Stay at home" and explicitly states that "You cannot go for a walk."

    I assume this means that elderly and medically vulnerable self-isolators will also be trapped inside (unless they live in houses with enclosed back gardens, which will allow them to get outdoors without coming into contact or close to any other people.)

    You can therefore appreciate why the Government is stalling for as long as possible. It is a Draconian measure.
    It will kill some people. Literally.

    What happens to smokers?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    This seniors quarantine will be advisory only, I presume.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nichomar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything wrong with people over 70 getting in a car, driving around (with the windows closed) for a short time to have a change of scenery, and then returning to their home?

    I think one concern I would have is anybody who has come and rung your doorbell, touched the door handle, coughed on your car. So you pop out and end up touching all those things.

    Also, I think you have to break habits. If you are used to popping out in the car and you usually pop into the shop, it is very hard to not instinctively do that.
    You just have to have dedicated pensioner only hours in the supermarket. Ensure hand gel and disposable plastic gloves available. They could also bring out reserved stocks of bog rolls, masks and hand sanitizer. As an aside Spain has allowed hairdressers and dry cleaners to stay open as the are essential to some people, particularly older females who have their hair done once a week.
    I am not sure getting my hair done is top of the list of my priorities at the moment.
    It wouldn’t be mine as I don’t have much and it all might drop out soon anyway but the 75+ ladies do seem to go religiously each week.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Gallowgate said:

    https://twitter.com/anshelpfeffer/status/1239202296715755521?s=21

    Finally!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    kinabalu said:

    This seniors quarantine will be advisory only, I presume.

    No I don't think it will be. They can't enforce it 100%, but if you tell somebody it is advisory, people always find small reasons to break it and consider themselves much fitter and healthier than most 70 year olds and thus don't apply to them.

    See the Italian 2 day attempt at "self-certifying" reasons to travel around.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Perhaps the 70 year olds could quarantine from Monday to Saturday, and everyone else do it on Sunday?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    nichomar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nichomar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything wrong with people over 70 getting in a car, driving around (with the windows closed) for a short time to have a change of scenery, and then returning to their home?

    I think one concern I would have is anybody who has come and rung your doorbell, touched the door handle, coughed on your car. So you pop out and end up touching all those things.

    Also, I think you have to break habits. If you are used to popping out in the car and you usually pop into the shop, it is very hard to not instinctively do that.
    You just have to have dedicated pensioner only hours in the supermarket. Ensure hand gel and disposable plastic gloves available. They could also bring out reserved stocks of bog rolls, masks and hand sanitizer. As an aside Spain has allowed hairdressers and dry cleaners to stay open as the are essential to some people, particularly older females who have their hair done once a week.
    I am not sure getting my hair done is top of the list of my priorities at the moment.
    It wouldn’t be mine as I don’t have much and it all might drop out soon anyway but the 75+ ladies do seem to go religiously each week.
    I am not over 70, but I won't be getting my hair cut for the next 6 months....think I will go for the Tom Hanks look in Cast Away.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    edmundintokyo said:

    Just 31 new cases in Japan today after a spike yesterday, puts the average back on the steady 50 per day track. However anecdotally the testing sounds extremely shitty, people with all the symptoms getting denied tests...

    Can you tell me why the total number of Japanese cases dropped dramatically (ie negative number of new cases) two days ago?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    nichomar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nichomar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything wrong with people over 70 getting in a car, driving around (with the windows closed) for a short time to have a change of scenery, and then returning to their home?

    I think one concern I would have is anybody who has come and rung your doorbell, touched the door handle, coughed on your car. So you pop out and end up touching all those things.

    Also, I think you have to break habits. If you are used to popping out in the car and you usually pop into the shop, it is very hard to not instinctively do that.
    You just have to have dedicated pensioner only hours in the supermarket. Ensure hand gel and disposable plastic gloves available. They could also bring out reserved stocks of bog rolls, masks and hand sanitizer. As an aside Spain has allowed hairdressers and dry cleaners to stay open as the are essential to some people, particularly older females who have their hair done once a week.
    I am not sure getting my hair done is top of the list of my priorities at the moment.
    It wouldn’t be mine as I don’t have much and it all might drop out soon anyway but the 75+ ladies do seem to go religiously each week.
    Part cosmetic and part social interaction and feel good factor.

    It is a very good activity to point out how hard self isolation could be as removing the activity generates far more hardship than just not having your hair done.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Man in his late 50s dies from coronavirus in Bristol
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "'Panic and fear are as contagious as this virus. And they'll kill even more people': A powerful plea from KAROL SIKORA, one of Britain's most distinguished doctors"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8113349/KAROL-SIKORA-Panic-fear-contagious-virus-theyll-kill-people.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gardenwalker said:

    So, it appears that the elderly and vulnerable will be quarantined soon. This quarantine likely to last four months, ie April-July, “the peak”.

    For rest of us, presume successive escalation of measures to try to manage load on health system, and damage to economy.

    UK will only move into mass lockdown if it looks like the situation is out of control - although it’s not clear to me why we believe we will not follow the same route as Italy, Spain, and France?

    By July it is hoped that sufficient of us have had the virus to confer a level of immunity, and the warmer weather may help as well.

    At that stage, relax measures.

    Repeat during winter?

    I think UK has the twin advantages of more controlled borders than rest of Europe and a very centralised state with a centralised healthcare system.

    Our centralised state is something that is not always ideal but right now it is an advantage. Our experts are not just mapping the virus in the country but know well the NHS's capacities and weaknesses etc
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything wrong with people over 70 getting in a car, driving around (with the windows closed) for a short time to have a change of scenery, and then returning to their home?

    I think one concern I would have is anybody who has come and rung your doorbell, touched the door handle, coughed on your car. So you pop out and end up touching all those things.

    Also, I think you have to break habits. If you are used to popping out in the car and you usually pop into the shop, it is very hard to not instinctively do that.
    I'm already in lock down. The only thing that can get into my apartment is the post. I leave it for 48 hours before touching it.

    On the other hand, if I'm going to catch it, it would be better to catch it now while the hospitals can cope. Then when I recover I can go out.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Gardenwalker said:

    So, it appears that the elderly and vulnerable will be quarantined soon. This quarantine likely to last four months, ie April-July, “the peak”.

    For rest of us, presume successive escalation of measures to try to manage load on health system, and damage to economy.

    UK will only move into mass lockdown if it looks like the situation is out of control - although it’s not clear to me why we believe we will not follow the same route as Italy, Spain, and France?

    By July it is hoped that sufficient of us have had the virus to confer a level of immunity, and the warmer weather may help as well.

    At that stage, relax measures.

    Repeat during winter?

    If it goes well then yes Id assume we ease off in the summer and repeat in the winter with first chance of regular normality spring 2021.

    If it goes badly then perhaps normality may return quicker.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    This seniors quarantine will be advisory only, I presume.

    Yes, I should think so. Surely parliament would not pass a law making it illegal for them to leave their homes?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nichomar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nichomar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything wrong with people over 70 getting in a car, driving around (with the windows closed) for a short time to have a change of scenery, and then returning to their home?

    I think one concern I would have is anybody who has come and rung your doorbell, touched the door handle, coughed on your car. So you pop out and end up touching all those things.

    Also, I think you have to break habits. If you are used to popping out in the car and you usually pop into the shop, it is very hard to not instinctively do that.
    You just have to have dedicated pensioner only hours in the supermarket. Ensure hand gel and disposable plastic gloves available. They could also bring out reserved stocks of bog rolls, masks and hand sanitizer. As an aside Spain has allowed hairdressers and dry cleaners to stay open as the are essential to some people, particularly older females who have their hair done once a week.
    I am not sure getting my hair done is top of the list of my priorities at the moment.
    It wouldn’t be mine as I don’t have much and it all might drop out soon anyway but the 75+ ladies do seem to go religiously each week.
    I am not over 70, but I won't be getting my hair cut for the next 6 months....think I will go for the Tom Hanks look in Cast Away.
    Hair cutting requires close contact for an extended period. Probably a good way to pass on infection. I suspect my new hair 'style' will owe a lot to my beard trimmer!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Austria bans gatherings of more than just FIVE people !!!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Man in his late 50s dies from coronavirus in Bristol

    Did he have any other medical issues?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    Gallowgate said:

    https://twitter.com/anshelpfeffer/status/1239202296715755521?s=21

    That's excellent news!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Stocky said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Man in his late 50s dies from coronavirus in Bristol

    Did he have any other medical issues?
    Says underlying medical issues yes....but obviously not what they were.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Austria bans gatherings of more than just FIVE people !!!

    Literally splitting up families?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1239174708081328129

    If 60% of GOP think we are past the worst of this markets could have a long when to fall still when they realise what has happened and is going to happen.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    Barnesian said:

    Gallowgate said:

    https://twitter.com/anshelpfeffer/status/1239202296715755521?s=21

    That's excellent news!
    a bit of good news like this is v welcome
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Black_Rook said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
    Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.

    The existing advice for the seven days' worth of self isolation for suspected cases is entitled "Stay at home" and explicitly states that "You cannot go for a walk."

    I assume this means that elderly and medically vulnerable self-isolators will also be trapped inside (unless they live in houses with enclosed back gardens, which will allow them to get outdoors without coming into contact or close to any other people.)

    You can therefore appreciate why the Government is stalling for as long as possible. It is a Draconian measure.
    On my morning dog walk I have already noticed that most of the elderly dog owners seem to have disappeared.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    What is the scientific basis for saying people can't go for walks?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    alex_ said:

    What is the scientific basis for saying people can't go for walks?

    You will come into contact with people, you will cough on the pavement, gates, cars etc.

    You might say but I live 10 miles from the nearest person and will never come into contact with anybody, but the problem is as soon as you start coming up with caveats people always decide they are exempt e.g People will say, well, I live in a village, there are only 50 people, so I probably won't come into contact with anybody....hi Fred, not seen you for ages, cough cough...

    It is why the initial advice in Italy over stand 1m away is nonsense.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    alex_ said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
    Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.

    The existing advice for the seven days' worth of self isolation for suspected cases is entitled "Stay at home" and explicitly states that "You cannot go for a walk."

    I assume this means that elderly and medically vulnerable self-isolators will also be trapped inside (unless they live in houses with enclosed back gardens, which will allow them to get outdoors without coming into contact or close to any other people.)

    You can therefore appreciate why the Government is stalling for as long as possible. It is a Draconian measure.
    It will kill some people. Literally.

    What happens to smokers?
    They're already committed to killing themselves
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Urgent efforts to repatriate 30,000 British tourists from ski resorts in France are under way amid warnings of “widespread failures” in the travel sector in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.

    French mountain resorts closed at midnight on Saturday, hours after tens of thousands of skiers had landed for their annual holiday in the snow.

    Leading ski and summer activity holiday company Neilson has called for the government to step in with “emergency measures”.

    There were reports of chaos and confusion across the Alps with one source saying local police had taken the French government’s message into their own hands and were going round hotels and restaurants telling marooned Britons to go home immediately.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-chaos-as-30000-british-tourists-told-to-leave-french-ski-resorts
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited March 2020
    The mind boggles as to why a 74 year old Italian who'd been in Milan would travel to the Central African Republic, one of the most dangerous countries in the world.

    "1st case in the Central African Republic: a 74-year-old Italian who had recently been in Milan [source]"

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This discussion has been closed.