Interesting that the mood on twitter has gone from "Boris Granny Killer" to "We can't ask old people to stay in doors" in about an hour.
What did those people think is happening when everyone goes into lockdown?
Exactly. I predicted this in a phone call this morning. The same people will be screaming about the end of their civil liberties once we really start a lockdown.
I rather suspect that what they want is everyone to be locked down except themselves and their mates.
Sadly, Andrea's figures were just for Lombardy....why is Lombardy a problem for us...possibly because of Bergamo and Ryanair....
Bergamo province is dramatically hit. They have 3.416 currently infected people.
A few days ago there were reports of 40 coffins lying in the church of the hospital because mortuary chambers were already full and crematory services couldn't cope with the daily requests
Regional cabinet member for welfare says Lombardy now have 1200 ICU beds overall. Doctors from Venezuela, Cuba and China are expected to come in the days to help.
Venezuela, Cuba and China! There's a lot of regimes taking advantage of the opportunity to rapidly improve their public images. Not that i'm sure it isn't appreciated.
Sadly, Andrea's figures were just for Lombardy....why is Lombardy a problem for us...possibly because of Bergamo and Ryanair....
Bergamo province is dramatically hit. They have 3.416 currently infected people.
A few days ago there were reports of 40 coffins lying in the church of the hospital because mortuary chambers were already full and crematory services couldn't cope with the daily requests
Regional cabinet member for welfare says Lombardy now have 1200 ICU beds overall. Doctors from Venezuela, Cuba and China are expected to come in the days to help.
There must be something special about Lombardy. We are not getting these reports from other parts of Italy, are we? So what is special about Lombardy?
That's where they had the initial huge cluster, in ski resorts
Is that right ? I thought it was supposed to be a chinese traveller near Milan, but I suppose ski resorts would make sense.
Well, this matches exactly what the CMO and CSA of the UK have been saying - the best places for transmission are groups of people in continuous, close proximity. Such as pubs and living rooms.
We need something like we had during the Falklands War from Ian McDonald - simple, clear, unvarnished facts, every day.
He was absolutely AWFUL. His deathknell announcements every evening were universally recognised as a public relations disaster. Which is why he was subsequently removed from the role and a memo went around Whitehall never ever to repeat the same mistake again.
He was iconic. We loved him and I am sorry to note he died unhonoured. Why would announcements of the deaths of UK personnel not be "deathknell?"
We didn't love him. I'm no fan of the Falklands War and I'm no fan of Boris but Ian MacDonald is NOT how you do media relations. He managed to make Marvin the paranoid android sound like a cheerleader on speed. He became a byword in how NOT to manage public relations in a crisis.
As Maggie was fond of telling everyone afterwards.
If we do that here, the Government better have a plan as to how to provide cash to these businesses, or we will come out of this and find every pub has gone bust.
In everyone goes bankrupt and all the debts fall through.... for quite a few businesses this will be a relief!
Be interesting to see where that merry-go-round would stop. My guess would be a government sponsored write-off of bad debt.
A person who I had coffee with last Thursday has been confirmed as having the virus. The latest advice seems to be that I don’t self isolate unless I develop symptoms. I don’t have any at the moment.
I think the reality is that many of us are going to come into contact with carriers frequently. We either completely cut ourselves off or carry on until there are symptoms.
It’s a bit troubling though.
According to the BBC you are covered by the previously issued advice:
Anyone who has travelled to an affected area, or who has been in close contact with an infected person, had already been asked to self-isolate for 14 days.
We had coffee not sex. I have a tricky court case tomorrow morning. I am genuinely unsure what to do. Trying to pass it on would be very difficult at this point.
Heres a definition
Definition of Close Contacts Close contacts are defined as persons within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) or within the room or care area of a confirmed or probable novel influenza A case patient for a prolonged period of time, or with direct contact with infectious secretions while the case patient was likely to be infectious (beginning 1 day prior to illness onset and continuing until resolution of illness).
If it was me I would say having coffee with someone across a table might be a bit more than 6 ft, and one coffee is not prolonged by some definitions, if I wanted to argue that way. Pushing it though.
The quote “We all die, just a question of when” just came to mind... can anyone name the film it’s from?
Alien 3 - Charles S. Dutton:
You're all gonna die. The only question is how you check out. Do you want it on your feet? Or on your fuckin' knees... begging? I ain't much for begging! Nobody ever gave me nothing! So I say *fuck* that thing! Let's fight it!
Sadly, Andrea's figures were just for Lombardy....why is Lombardy a problem for us...possibly because of Bergamo and Ryanair....
Bergamo province is dramatically hit. They have 3.416 currently infected people.
A few days ago there were reports of 40 coffins lying in the church of the hospital because mortuary chambers were already full and crematory services couldn't cope with the daily requests
Regional cabinet member for welfare says Lombardy now have 1200 ICU beds overall. Doctors from Venezuela, Cuba and China are expected to come in the days to help.
Venezuela, Cuba and China! There's a lot of regimes taking advantage of the opportunity to rapidly improve their public images. Not that i'm sure it isn't appreciated.
Perhaps a North Korean delegation will be sent to help out the NHS.
Incidentally, is NK the only non-African country not to have declared any cases yet?
Uh, these figures for Italy are very different to Andrea's. Unfortunately
Yes, as Foxy was saying these are the nationwide figures, rather than the Lombardy ones. On the one hand the Lombardy situation seems not to be changing too much, but where are the other cases ? That's the concerning bit for me.
North Italians who escaped to the rest of the country last Sunday?
Yup - exactly that.
But remember - Behavioural Science is Fake News, so people escaping from quarantine could not have been predicted.
Sadly, Andrea's figures were just for Lombardy....why is Lombardy a problem for us...possibly because of Bergamo and Ryanair....
Bergamo province is dramatically hit. They have 3.416 currently infected people.
A few days ago there were reports of 40 coffins lying in the church of the hospital because mortuary chambers were already full and crematory services couldn't cope with the daily requests
Regional cabinet member for welfare says Lombardy now have 1200 ICU beds overall. Doctors from Venezuela, Cuba and China are expected to come in the days to help.
There must be something special about Lombardy. We are not getting these reports from other parts of Italy, are we? So what is special about Lombardy?
That's where they had the initial huge cluster, in ski resorts
That is one thing that differentiates us from Italy - we (as yet) have no comparable 'hot spot'. Thanksfully our cases are more diffuse. I was supposed to be going to Sicily for a holiday on the 31st and (so far as I am aware) there are fewer than 200 cases there, and 70 or so over the water in Calabria. It is still very concentrated in the North. (EDIT: apologies - I note I am just repeating what AndreaParma said upthread)
Government borrowing is going to go through the roof. What with all these privatisations, bailing the banks out, underwriting Lloyds names and buying Covid-19 pharmaceuticals from the Trump organisation.
Terrifying to think what state the public finances will be in a few years from now. Not just here either. I see the US defaulting and the world economy as we know it coming to an end.
If we do that here, the Government better have a plan as to how to provide cash to these businesses, or we will come out of this and find every pub has gone bust.
Also, close for two weeks? Try two months.
Four months.
And then what? Reopen and it all kicks off again.
Well, not necessarily. Let's watch China to see what happens. Many hotspots will have burnt out, and possible to get back to the containment phase, with contact tracing.
Sadly, Andrea's figures were just for Lombardy....why is Lombardy a problem for us...possibly because of Bergamo and Ryanair....
Bergamo province is dramatically hit. They have 3.416 currently infected people.
A few days ago there were reports of 40 coffins lying in the church of the hospital because mortuary chambers were already full and crematory services couldn't cope with the daily requests
Regional cabinet member for welfare says Lombardy now have 1200 ICU beds overall. Doctors from Venezuela, Cuba and China are expected to come in the days to help.
There must be something special about Lombardy. We are not getting these reports from other parts of Italy, are we? So what is special about Lombardy?
That's where they had the initial huge cluster, in ski resorts
That`s completely untrue. The initial case was an old fella in a village in the Veneto area, well away from ski resorts. (I was in a ski resort in Lombardy at the time of the announcement.) This was followed by cases in 10 villages all in a cluster to the south east of Milan - in the Lombardy area (which is huge) but again well away from ski resorts.
You LIKE a post that postulates the virus "coming back every winter to take out the oldies"?
That's just what the flu does, tho. And we learn to live with that.
YES I have basically said "just like the flu". Hah.
Its worth thinking that in much of the world - this will be a disaster, now. Then it will be another cause of death each year. 2% of the population dies. TIA etc.
A person who I had coffee with last Thursday has been confirmed as having the virus. The latest advice seems to be that I don’t self isolate unless I develop symptoms. I don’t have any at the moment.
I think the reality is that many of us are going to come into contact with carriers frequently. We either completely cut ourselves off or carry on until there are symptoms.
It’s a bit troubling though.
According to the BBC you are covered by the previously issued advice:
Anyone who has travelled to an affected area, or who has been in close contact with an infected person, had already been asked to self-isolate for 14 days.
We had coffee not sex. I have a tricky court case tomorrow morning. I am genuinely unsure what to do. Trying to pass it on would be very difficult at this point.
If you don't pass it on, you may end up passing something else on.
That's why its tricky but we are going to face this scenario repeatedly, probably daily all too soon. I think I take my temperature in the morning. If its fine and I have not spent the night coughing I go.
Some of the more fearful and fatalistic comments on here are, I think, way over the top. The virus is serious but why should Old King Cole be told to cancel all his weekly appointments? If he and his wife are well they should continue as normal.
I was over the rugby club until 3am yesterday morning, there must've been 250 people over there. The Scots came down from Jed Thistle, the great Gary Armstrong was with them (he told us Doddie Weir, sadly, is not in great condition), two games of rugby were played, the Scots boys played the bagpipes and we all got very pissed, including all the old boys.
I took my boy to Ramp World in Cardiff yesterday and it was as packed as ever, I went to Tescos this morning and apart from a pasta shortage it was fine... and I've just been over the local pub for Sunday dinner where it was as jam-packed as it always is. The wife and me will go to work and the kids will go to school in the morning, as usual.
Most people don't live by the fear and hysteria-culture of Twitter or social media and just get the feck on with it. And will die with fewer regrets.
This is how EXACTLY people initially reacted in Italy. with a shrug and a MEH and off they toddled to the café for an espresso with their friends.
Then the deaths came, and the horror stories, and the young people getting ill, and the crematoria working 24/7 to burn the bodies.
Now the Italians do NOT behave like you.
I would suggest that it is you who is in a very small minority, not me.
I might be wrong and I might die but I'm not going to worry myself stupid until it happens, just like all the other people going about their daily business aren't.
All my Italian friends and family have contacted us to stay at home.....Why do you think they have done that?
My kids are going to school in the morning with 750 other kids. I'll go to work tomorrow and come into contact with 100 people. What's the point of me staying at home when I'll likely catch it through the kids anyway.
And that's the way the government kickstart their 'herd immunity' (sorry, 'flattening the curve') project.
Seeing the Italian data makes this theory madness sadly....once your health system cannot cope the fatality rate rockets and perfectly treatable people start to die in large numbers
Sadly no approach is without risk. If you're going to turn the country into a prison then how long do you do it for and what happens if you finally let all the inmates out and the cycle of infection simply starts all over again?
The vast scale of the poverty and immiseration caused by the attempt to fight this illness is going to cause more suffering, and probably more death, than the illness itself. It's just that it will unfold over a much longer period of time and people won't recognise Covid as the cause.
Quite. For all the suggestions about "callous capitalists putting £££££ above health", there is a clear link between ££££ and health that will have effects for decades. And as you say, cause far more damage in the long term. Or not, if it resolves the demographic time bomb
One other thing - expect pressure for massive cuts in public sector wages and pensions after all this. Because economically public sector workers are going to be largely unaffected, whilst a huge proportion of workers in the private sector will be destitute. And i say that as a public sector worker.
Once the infection rate goes from four to five figures, and onwards to six and the body count mounts no one will be complaining too loudly about lockdown.
We are going to see a seismic shift over the next six weeks. Many will look back on their views of today and ask themselves how they could be so wrong. This is how normalcy bias works. We don't want to face up to the truth. Even Eadric has his normalcy bias wobbles.
This is going to be utterly horrific. Very soon. Beyond anything any of us have experienced in our lifetimes. And I write that as someone who lived through an epidemic that wiped out 30% of the population where I was living.
If we do that here, the Government better have a plan as to how to provide cash to these businesses, or we will come out of this and find every pub has gone bust.
Basically the govt is going to have fund the whole country for 3 months or so!
I have just spoken to my mother and told her she is supposed to stay indoors until July, but I have to report a disappointing lack of motivation. From someone who grew up during the war and who voted for Boris I would have expected better.
In case you're interested, I lived through a cholera epidemic. It took out 30% of the population. There was also a river boat full of hundreds of people and the cholera hit. Only a handful got off alive.
But coronavirus is a global sweep. The death rate may 'only' be around 3-5% or so but the effects for the world are devastating. We will never be the same again.
And, remember, this may be just the first of many.
Sadly, Andrea's figures were just for Lombardy....why is Lombardy a problem for us...possibly because of Bergamo and Ryanair....
Bergamo province is dramatically hit. They have 3.416 currently infected people.
A few days ago there were reports of 40 coffins lying in the church of the hospital because mortuary chambers were already full and crematory services couldn't cope with the daily requests
Regional cabinet member for welfare says Lombardy now have 1200 ICU beds overall. Doctors from Venezuela, Cuba and China are expected to come in the days to help.
Venezuela, Cuba and China! There's a lot of regimes taking advantage of the opportunity to rapidly improve their public images. Not that i'm sure it isn't appreciated.
Perhaps a North Korean delegation will be sent to help out the NHS.
Incidentally, is NK the only non-African country not to have declared any cases yet?
I believe they had one with a 100% death rate. Cause of death was execution.
If we do that here, the Government better have a plan as to how to provide cash to these businesses, or we will come out of this and find every pub has gone bust.
Basically the govt is going to have fund the whole country for 3 months or so!
I think it is going to be much longer than that sadly
Once the infection rate goes from four to five figures, and onwards to six and the body count mounts no one will be complaining too loudly about lockdown.
We are going to see a seismic shift over the next six weeks. Many will look back on their views of today and ask themselves how they could be so wrong. This is how normalcy bias works. We don't want to face up to the truth. Even Eadric has his normalcy bias wobbles.
This is going to be utterly horrific. Very soon. Beyond anything any of us have experienced in our lifetimes. And I write that as someone who lived through an epidemic that wiped out 30% of the population where I was living.
It might be or might not be, but I'm not sure what we gain if we stress the horror it might bring. If it is, we will need plenty of time not feeling horror to be able to humanly plan, cope, and think ahead, and if it is at the middle or least bad range of expectations fear may also hinder our dealing with it too.
I know it's easier said than done, and we've all felt fear at some times in the last week, but that is true.
Uh, these figures for Italy are very different to Andrea's. Unfortunately
Yes, as Foxy was saying these are the nationwide figures, rather than the Lombardy ones. On the one hand the Lombardy situation seems not to be changing too much, but where are the other cases ? That's the concerning bit for me.
North Italians who escaped to the rest of the country last Sunday?
Possibly. But critically, since the virus takes 7-14 days to often display symptoms (especially serious ones) and since the lockdown only started on Monday last, we should expect a rise in cases (or at least a fairly constant number of cases) across Italy until next weekend. At that point, since those infected will not be able to pass it on, the number of new cases should start to drop. Ultimately, I'd expect the final number of cases that were verified by a test (as opposed to the almost surely many asymptomatic and formally undiagnosed cases) to be a bit less but of the same order as Wuhan. The mortality rate though might be higher as Italy as such a large elderly population.
The Italian Govt prepped people by saying the figures are going to get worse before they get better.....
My mother in law in provincial Florence terrified today by the continuous sounds of ambulances....
That is why I find some of the comments today by people who do not understand the terror this will bring a bit crass
Uh, these figures for Italy are very different to Andrea's. Unfortunately
Yes, as Foxy was saying these are the nationwide figures, rather than the Lombardy ones. On the one hand the Lombardy situation seems not to be changing too much, but where are the other cases ? That's the concerning bit for me.
North Italians who escaped to the rest of the country last Sunday?
Possibly. But critically, since the virus takes 7-14 days to often display symptoms (especially serious ones) and since the lockdown only started on Monday last, we should expect a rise in cases (or at least a fairly constant number of cases) across Italy until next weekend. At that point, since those infected will not be able to pass it on, the number of new cases should start to drop. Ultimately, I'd expect the final number of cases that were verified by a test (as opposed to the almost surely many asymptomatic and formally undiagnosed cases) to be a bit less but of the same order as Wuhan. The mortality rate though might be higher as Italy as such a large elderly population.
My mother in law in provincial Florence terrified today by the continuous sounds of ambulances....
That is why I find some of the comments today by people who do not understand the terror this will bring a bit crass
Once the infection rate goes from four to five figures, and onwards to six and the body count mounts no one will be complaining too loudly about lockdown.
We are going to see a seismic shift over the next six weeks. Many will look back on their views of today and ask themselves how they could be so wrong. This is how normalcy bias works. We don't want to face up to the truth. Even Eadric has his normalcy bias wobbles.
This is going to be utterly horrific. Very soon. Beyond anything any of us have experienced in our lifetimes. And I write that as someone who lived through an epidemic that wiped out 30% of the population where I was living.
A person who I had coffee with last Thursday has been confirmed as having the virus. The latest advice seems to be that I don’t self isolate unless I develop symptoms. I don’t have any at the moment.
I think the reality is that many of us are going to come into contact with carriers frequently. We either completely cut ourselves off or carry on until there are symptoms.
It’s a bit troubling though.
According to the BBC you are covered by the previously issued advice:
Anyone who has travelled to an affected area, or who has been in close contact with an infected person, had already been asked to self-isolate for 14 days.
We had coffee not sex. I have a tricky court case tomorrow morning. I am genuinely unsure what to do. Trying to pass it on would be very difficult at this point.
Heres a definition
Definition of Close Contacts Close contacts are defined as persons within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) or within the room or care area of a confirmed or probable novel influenza A case patient for a prolonged period of time, or with direct contact with infectious secretions while the case patient was likely to be infectious (beginning 1 day prior to illness onset and continuing until resolution of illness).
If it was me I would say having coffee with someone across a table might be a bit more than 6 ft, and one coffee is not prolonged by some definitions, if I wanted to argue that way. Pushing it though.
It is but then the average infected person infects 2-3 others. Think how many people the average infected person is in contact with. Some he might be sleeping with or sharing a house with. And he or she infects 3. Clearly there is not no risk but there can't be much.
In case you're interested, I lived through a cholera epidemic. It took out 30% of the population. There was also a river boat full of hundreds of people and the cholera hit. Only a handful got off alive.
But coronavirus is a global sweep. The death rate may 'only' be around 3-5% or so but the effects for the world are devastating. We will never be the same again.
And, remember, this may be just the first of many.
Also remember, it was your sunny optimistic outlook on life that got you through the first time.
Once the infection rate goes from four to five figures, and onwards to six and the body count mounts no one will be complaining too loudly about lockdown.
We are going to see a seismic shift over the next six weeks. Many will look back on their views of today and ask themselves how they could be so wrong. This is how normalcy bias works. We don't want to face up to the truth. Even Eadric has his normalcy bias wobbles.
This is going to be utterly horrific. Very soon. Beyond anything any of us have experienced in our lifetimes. And I write that as someone who lived through an epidemic that wiped out 30% of the population where I was living.
You could even be wrong and wonder why
The only thing I'm going to be wrong about on this is that it could be even worse than I am suggesting.
Once the infection rate goes from four to five figures, and onwards to six and the body count mounts no one will be complaining too loudly about lockdown.
We are going to see a seismic shift over the next six weeks. Many will look back on their views of today and ask themselves how they could be so wrong. This is how normalcy bias works. We don't want to face up to the truth. Even Eadric has his normalcy bias wobbles.
This is going to be utterly horrific. Very soon. Beyond anything any of us have experienced in our lifetimes. And I write that as someone who lived through an epidemic that wiped out 30% of the population where I was living.
Hang on - I thought you only read the book on the Black Death, not actually experienced it!
Sadly, Andrea's figures were just for Lombardy....why is Lombardy a problem for us...possibly because of Bergamo and Ryanair....
Bergamo province is dramatically hit. They have 3.416 currently infected people.
A few days ago there were reports of 40 coffins lying in the church of the hospital because mortuary chambers were already full and crematory services couldn't cope with the daily requests
Regional cabinet member for welfare says Lombardy now have 1200 ICU beds overall. Doctors from Venezuela, Cuba and China are expected to come in the days to help.
Venezuela, Cuba and China! There's a lot of regimes taking advantage of the opportunity to rapidly improve their public images. Not that i'm sure it isn't appreciated.
Perhaps a North Korean delegation will be sent to help out the NHS.
Incidentally, is NK the only non-African country not to have declared any cases yet?
IIRC they had 1. They shot him. Enthusiasm for testing may have tailed off a tad.
If we do that here, the Government better have a plan as to how to provide cash to these businesses, or we will come out of this and find every pub has gone bust.
Also, close for two weeks? Try two months.
Four months.
And then what? Reopen and it all kicks off again.
Well, not necessarily. Let's watch China to see what happens. Many hotspots will have burnt out, and possible to get back to the containment phase, with contact tracing.
If the CMO is recommending 7 days self isolation for those with symptoms then maybe a 2 week lockdown could put a serious brake on cases. If you caught it just before the lockdown , symptoms should show in 4 or 5 days and your have over 7 left before release. Of course the lockdowns would need repeating several times (dozens?).
A person who I had coffee with last Thursday has been confirmed as having the virus. The latest advice seems to be that I don’t self isolate unless I develop symptoms. I don’t have any at the moment.
I think the reality is that many of us are going to come into contact with carriers frequently. We either completely cut ourselves off or carry on until there are symptoms.
It’s a bit troubling though.
According to the BBC you are covered by the previously issued advice:
Anyone who has travelled to an affected area, or who has been in close contact with an infected person, had already been asked to self-isolate for 14 days.
We had coffee not sex. I have a tricky court case tomorrow morning. I am genuinely unsure what to do. Trying to pass it on would be very difficult at this point.
Heres a definition
Definition of Close Contacts Close contacts are defined as persons within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) or within the room or care area of a confirmed or probable novel influenza A case patient for a prolonged period of time, or with direct contact with infectious secretions while the case patient was likely to be infectious (beginning 1 day prior to illness onset and continuing until resolution of illness).
If it was me I would say having coffee with someone across a table might be a bit more than 6 ft, and one coffee is not prolonged by some definitions, if I wanted to argue that way. Pushing it though.
It is but then the average infected person infects 2-3 others. Think how many the average infected person is in contact with. Some he might be sleeping with or sharing a house with. And he or she infects 3. Clearly there is not no risk but there can't be much.
I don’t think there is any ambiguity that you are supposed to self isolate. If on the other hand you choose to put your colleagues at risk, you are doing your bit for herd immunity.
Any predictions for the stock markets tomorrow? I suspect the DJ's Friday gains may well be wiped out.
I agree. I got caught out by the bounce after Trump’s second attempt at a speech and am expecting markets to come back down.
Yes, I think down this week.
On Thursday I started cautiously buying up a few bargains in sectors not likely to severely affected. Still 80% cash though. I will wait to see what transpires, not had the bottom yet.
Remember, that even with a pretty horrible year, this too shall pass.
Once the infection rate goes from four to five figures, and onwards to six and the body count mounts no one will be complaining too loudly about lockdown.
We are going to see a seismic shift over the next six weeks. Many will look back on their views of today and ask themselves how they could be so wrong. This is how normalcy bias works. We don't want to face up to the truth. Even Eadric has his normalcy bias wobbles.
This is going to be utterly horrific. Very soon. Beyond anything any of us have experienced in our lifetimes. And I write that as someone who lived through an epidemic that wiped out 30% of the population where I was living.
You could even be wrong and wonder why
The only thing I'm going to be wrong about on this is that it could be even worse than I am suggesting.
The word could be is doing a lot of lifting
Where I do agree is that it will be an economic disaster not seen in peacetime
If we do that here, the Government better have a plan as to how to provide cash to these businesses, or we will come out of this and find every pub has gone bust.
If we end up going down the Italian route then they'll have to arrange support, whether through state aid, twisting the arms of the banks, legislating explicitly to relieve the crippled businesses of the burden of all rent and taxation until this is over, or some combination of the three. Otherwise it won't just be the pubs, it'll be the totality of the leisure, tourism and hospitality industry and every retail business save for grocery and pharmacy. The outlook for the remainder of the economy doesn't exactly look rosy either.
I'll have to make sure I get out and about and enjoy life for however long we have left before we all get incarcerated in our homes under armed guard, because if or when we're ever let back out it's probably going to be 1930s all over again. Or worse.
Any predictions for the stock markets tomorrow? I suspect the DJ's Friday gains may well be wiped out.
Last couple of weeks I have had a mental fair value around 6000 for the FTSE but must admit I am no longer comfortable buying at 5300.
60% of GOP voters in the US think they are past the worst of this. One of their former leaders might have warned them "You aint seen nothing yet". As they wake up to the economic damage there must be a load of retail sellers to come, especially in the US.
Are there cash rich hedge funds/sovereign wealth funds/multi billionaires ready to go the opposite way? Possibly, there are undoubtedly already good companies at bargain valuations around but we all know they could go a lot lower.
Id guess FTSE touches 4700 at some point this week, DOW 18000. Probably one big up day, two big down days in any order!
A person who I had coffee with last Thursday has been confirmed as having the virus. The latest advice seems to be that I don’t self isolate unless I develop symptoms. I don’t have any at the moment.
I think the reality is that many of us are going to come into contact with carriers frequently. We either completely cut ourselves off or carry on until there are symptoms.
It’s a bit troubling though.
According to the BBC you are covered by the previously issued advice:
Anyone who has travelled to an affected area, or who has been in close contact with an infected person, had already been asked to self-isolate for 14 days.
We had coffee not sex. I have a tricky court case tomorrow morning. I am genuinely unsure what to do. Trying to pass it on would be very difficult at this point.
@DavidL The advice about self isolating for 14 days was withdrawn on the 13 March.
And the point is that lockdown, etc., quickly lower the number of true new cases. Italy will almost certainly be seeing lower true new infections already, it's just going to take some time before the official numbers reflect that, because of the 7-10 gap between infection and recognition of the issue.
Urgent efforts to repatriate 30,000 British tourists from ski resorts in France are under way amid warnings of “widespread failures” in the travel sector in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
French mountain resorts closed at midnight on Saturday, hours after tens of thousands of skiers had landed for their annual holiday in the snow.
Leading ski and summer activity holiday company Neilson has called for the government to step in with “emergency measures”.
There were reports of chaos and confusion across the Alps with one source saying local police had taken the French government’s message into their own hands and were going round hotels and restaurants telling marooned Britons to go home immediately.
A person who I had coffee with last Thursday has been confirmed as having the virus. The latest advice seems to be that I don’t self isolate unless I develop symptoms. I don’t have any at the moment.
I think the reality is that many of us are going to come into contact with carriers frequently. We either completely cut ourselves off or carry on until there are symptoms.
It’s a bit troubling though.
According to the BBC you are covered by the previously issued advice:
Anyone who has travelled to an affected area, or who has been in close contact with an infected person, had already been asked to self-isolate for 14 days.
We had coffee not sex. I have a tricky court case tomorrow morning. I am genuinely unsure what to do. Trying to pass it on would be very difficult at this point.
Heres a definition
Definition of Close Contacts Close contacts are defined as persons within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) or within the room or care area of a confirmed or probable novel influenza A case patient for a prolonged period of time, or with direct contact with infectious secretions while the case patient was likely to be infectious (beginning 1 day prior to illness onset and continuing until resolution of illness).
If it was me I would say having coffee with someone across a table might be a bit more than 6 ft, and one coffee is not prolonged by some definitions, if I wanted to argue that way. Pushing it though.
It is but then the average infected person infects 2-3 others. Think how many people the average infected person is in contact with. Some he might be sleeping with or sharing a house with. And he or she infects 3. Clearly there is not no risk but there can't be much.
If your coffee meeting was more than 1 day before onset of their symptoms then you should not need to isolate is my interpretation.
Re. the markets, I don't think we will bottom out until late autumn and possibly into next year. There will be mini lifts but the overall trend will be bear market as the full impact begins to hit and we go into global recession (inevitable).
Stocks won't return to end 2019 levels for at least 2 years.
There are some really good opportunities of course. A few companies are going to rocket. If you can get on whoever develops the vaccine (Gilead?) then bingo.
Urgent efforts to repatriate 30,000 British tourists from ski resorts in France are under way amid warnings of “widespread failures” in the travel sector in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
French mountain resorts closed at midnight on Saturday, hours after tens of thousands of skiers had landed for their annual holiday in the snow.
Leading ski and summer activity holiday company Neilson has called for the government to step in with “emergency measures”.
There were reports of chaos and confusion across the Alps with one source saying local police had taken the French government’s message into their own hands and were going round hotels and restaurants telling marooned Britons to go home immediately.
And the point is that lockdown, etc., quickly lower the number of true new cases. Italy will almost certainly be seeing lower true new infections already, it's just going to take some time before the official numbers reflect that, because of the 7-10 gap between infection and recognition of the issue.
If we do that here, the Government better have a plan as to how to provide cash to these businesses, or we will come out of this and find every pub has gone bust.
Basically the govt is going to have fund the whole country for 3 months or so!
Turning that into a policy suggestion:
Govt provides helicopter money of median wage to every adult in the UK Govt legislates to allow companies to suspend salaries for this period on condition that employees are not expected to work. Govt also legislates to allow employees of non essential firms to choose not to work and not be paid salary during this period, whilst protecting their right to return afterwards. If both employer and employee want to be carry on, then employee gets salary plus helicopter money.
Think this broadly protects livelihoods, employment and a large proportion of companies. Can we afford it!? Can we afford not to?
Urgent efforts to repatriate 30,000 British tourists from ski resorts in France are under way amid warnings of “widespread failures” in the travel sector in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
French mountain resorts closed at midnight on Saturday, hours after tens of thousands of skiers had landed for their annual holiday in the snow.
Leading ski and summer activity holiday company Neilson has called for the government to step in with “emergency measures”.
There were reports of chaos and confusion across the Alps with one source saying local police had taken the French government’s message into their own hands and were going round hotels and restaurants telling marooned Britons to go home immediately.
And the point is that lockdown, etc., quickly lower the number of true new cases. Italy will almost certainly be seeing lower true new infections already, it's just going to take some time before the official numbers reflect that, because of the 7-10 gap between infection and recognition of the issue.
Great chart, what is its source?
The Italian lockdown was a lot less stringent than Hubei though, by all accounts. So the effects may take a lot longer to be seen.
Government borrowing is going to go through the roof. What with all these privatisations, bailing the banks out, underwriting Lloyds names and buying Covid-19 pharmaceuticals from the Trump organisation.
Terrifying to think what state the public finances will be in a few years from now. Not just here either. I see the US defaulting and the world economy as we know it coming to an end.
And I used to think I was sometimes a bit pessimistic
It's worth noting that even the Black Death did not destroy the world economy and return Europe to pre-literate caveman life.
Indeed, the Black Death ended European Feudalism, apart from some parts of Eastern Europe, and kick started capitalism.
Government borrowing is going to go through the roof. What with all these privatisations, bailing the banks out, underwriting Lloyds names and buying Covid-19 pharmaceuticals from the Trump organisation.
Terrifying to think what state the public finances will be in a few years from now. Not just here either. I see the US defaulting and the world economy as we know it coming to an end.
And I used to think I was sometimes a bit pessimistic
It's worth noting that even the Black Death did not destroy the world economy and return Europe to pre-literate caveman life.
One thing is certain, the big state is now back and austerity is dead
A person who I had coffee with last Thursday has been confirmed as having the virus. The latest advice seems to be that I don’t self isolate unless I develop symptoms. I don’t have any at the moment.
I think the reality is that many of us are going to come into contact with carriers frequently. We either completely cut ourselves off or carry on until there are symptoms.
It’s a bit troubling though.
According to the BBC you are covered by the previously issued advice:
Anyone who has travelled to an affected area, or who has been in close contact with an infected person, had already been asked to self-isolate for 14 days.
We had coffee not sex. I have a tricky court case tomorrow morning. I am genuinely unsure what to do. Trying to pass it on would be very difficult at this point.
Heres a definition
Definition of Close Contacts Close contacts are defined as persons within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) or within the room or care area of a confirmed or probable novel influenza A case patient for a prolonged period of time, or with direct contact with infectious secretions while the case patient was likely to be infectious (beginning 1 day prior to illness onset and continuing until resolution of illness).
If it was me I would say having coffee with someone across a table might be a bit more than 6 ft, and one coffee is not prolonged by some definitions, if I wanted to argue that way. Pushing it though.
It is but then the average infected person infects 2-3 others. Think how many the average infected person is in contact with. Some he might be sleeping with or sharing a house with. And he or she infects 3. Clearly there is not no risk but there can't be much.
I don’t think there is any ambiguity that you are supposed to self isolate. If on the other hand you choose to put your colleagues at risk, you are doing your bit for herd immunity.
'No proper government guidance' sums up the above dilemma. I don't know if other western countries make it clearer. But Far Eastern countries do.
If one person infects 2.5 others the NHS clearly blows up by April/May. As I said before, it's trebles all round for funeral directors. If s/he infects 0.95 others, it causes local outbreaks but it stays under control.
An e-mail from a 76 yr old friend, long retired from the NHS -
'Almost everyone seems to think aiming for herd immunity from this point on is completely mad. To achieve it, the number of infections, and serious illness and death, within a short period would completely overwhelm the NHS and I don't read of any urgent preparations to modify the way the NHS functions. What a disaster the policy was to run down NHS provision and staffing to the point where 95% bed occupancy is the expected norm. Surely any planner (or politician) could see that:
demand doesn't stay at the same level but comes in peaks and troughs capacity is needed for disinfecting before reuse of beds and equipment social care has to be at a level where it can support older people to leave hospital instead of being cut to the bone a novel virus would inevitably emerge at some point.
Over 10 years ago we were given training by the infection control nurse, in my NHS Trust, as to the planning for a pandemic. Yet I now hear politicians say it is totally unexpected and couldn't have been foreseen!'
Re. the markets, I don't think we will bottom out until late autumn and possibly into next year. There will be mini lifts but the overall trend will be bear market as the full impact begins to hit and we go into global recession (inevitable).
Stocks won't return to end 2019 levels for at least 2 years.
There are some really good opportunities of course. A few companies are going to rocket. If you can get on whoever develops the vaccine (Gilead?) then bingo.
Do you have any advice for what I should do, if I am worried about inflation?
All my assets are now in cash, in various forms: ISAs, Premium Bonds, basic Savings Accounts, etc. I sold all my shares just in time.
But now what? There could be a hefty dollop of inflation coming down the line. Gold looks incredibly risky and volatile. I don't understand "index linked bonds" - are they liquid, can you just sell them any time like shares?
I would think that deflation is the bigger risk as consumer spending disappears apart from bog roll and dry pasta.
Government borrowing is going to go through the roof. What with all these privatisations, bailing the banks out, underwriting Lloyds names and buying Covid-19 pharmaceuticals from the Trump organisation.
Terrifying to think what state the public finances will be in a few years from now. Not just here either. I see the US defaulting and the world economy as we know it coming to an end.
And I used to think I was sometimes a bit pessimistic
It's worth noting that even the Black Death did not destroy the world economy and return Europe to pre-literate caveman life.
One thing is certain, the big state is now back and austerity is dead
Government borrowing is going to go through the roof. What with all these privatisations, bailing the banks out, underwriting Lloyds names and buying Covid-19 pharmaceuticals from the Trump organisation.
Terrifying to think what state the public finances will be in a few years from now. Not just here either. I see the US defaulting and the world economy as we know it coming to an end.
And I used to think I was sometimes a bit pessimistic
It's worth noting that even the Black Death did not destroy the world economy and return Europe to pre-literate caveman life.
One thing is certain, the big state is now back and austerity is dead
Blimey. That's quite a statement coming from a true-Conservative like you.
Re. the markets, I don't think we will bottom out until late autumn and possibly into next year. There will be mini lifts but the overall trend will be bear market as the full impact begins to hit and we go into global recession (inevitable).
Stocks won't return to end 2019 levels for at least 2 years.
There are some really good opportunities of course. A few companies are going to rocket. If you can get on whoever develops the vaccine (Gilead?) then bingo.
Do you have any advice for what I should do, if I am worried about inflation?
All my assets are now in cash, in various forms: ISAs, Premium Bonds, basic Savings Accounts, etc. I sold all my shares just in time.
But now what? There could be a hefty dollop of inflation coming down the line. Gold looks incredibly risky and volatile. I don't understand "index linked bonds" - are they liquid, can you just sell them any time like shares?
I would think that deflation is the bigger risk as consumer spending disappears apart from bog roll and dry pasta.
So keep most of it in cash then? Spread around various reliable institutions...
I am for the moment, but there will be a time to buy. St Ledgers Day perhaps?
And I used to think I was sometimes a bit pessimistic
It's worth noting that even the Black Death did not destroy the world economy and return Europe to pre-literate caveman life.
The world economy is complex and yet ethereal. It relies on a suspension of disbelief and on a universal faith in certain things that are deemed beyond debate. For example, that the US Treasury market is endlessly robust and liquid. But I wonder if this is true.
Government borrowing is going to go through the roof. What with all these privatisations, bailing the banks out, underwriting Lloyds names and buying Covid-19 pharmaceuticals from the Trump organisation.
Terrifying to think what state the public finances will be in a few years from now. Not just here either. I see the US defaulting and the world economy as we know it coming to an end.
And I used to think I was sometimes a bit pessimistic
It's worth noting that even the Black Death did not destroy the world economy and return Europe to pre-literate caveman life.
One thing is certain, the big state is now back and austerity is dead
Blimey. That's quite a statement coming from a true-Conservative like you.
@HYUFD is a true Conservative - he adapts to the situation he is facing.
Government borrowing is going to go through the roof. What with all these privatisations, bailing the banks out, underwriting Lloyds names and buying Covid-19 pharmaceuticals from the Trump organisation.
Terrifying to think what state the public finances will be in a few years from now. Not just here either. I see the US defaulting and the world economy as we know it coming to an end.
And I used to think I was sometimes a bit pessimistic
It's worth noting that even the Black Death did not destroy the world economy and return Europe to pre-literate caveman life.
One thing is certain, the big state is now back and austerity is dead
Blimey. That's quite a statement coming from a true-Conservative like you.
I am a Tory not a classical liberal, more Disraeli than Gladstone
Re. the markets, I don't think we will bottom out until late autumn and possibly into next year. There will be mini lifts but the overall trend will be bear market as the full impact begins to hit and we go into global recession (inevitable).
Stocks won't return to end 2019 levels for at least 2 years.
There are some really good opportunities of course. A few companies are going to rocket. If you can get on whoever develops the vaccine (Gilead?) then bingo.
Do you have any advice for what I should do, if I am worried about inflation?
All my assets are now in cash, in various forms: ISAs, Premium Bonds, basic Savings Accounts, etc. I sold all my shares just in time.
But now what? There could be a hefty dollop of inflation coming down the line. Gold looks incredibly risky and volatile. I don't understand "index linked bonds" - are they liquid, can you just sell them any time like shares?
Not an expert but i believe they, and major funds of them (eg INXG), are liquid as anything. The danger is they are v pricey at the moment so 1. they yield zilch atm 2. if deflation wins they are gonna plummet by double digit %ages, so take that risk as insurance against inflation but don't go all in.
Government borrowing is going to go through the roof. What with all these privatisations, bailing the banks out, underwriting Lloyds names and buying Covid-19 pharmaceuticals from the Trump organisation.
Terrifying to think what state the public finances will be in a few years from now. Not just here either. I see the US defaulting and the world economy as we know it coming to an end.
And I used to think I was sometimes a bit pessimistic
It's worth noting that even the Black Death did not destroy the world economy and return Europe to pre-literate caveman life.
One thing is certain, the big state is now back and austerity is dead
Blimey. That's quite a statement coming from a true-Conservative like you.
I am a Tory not a classical liberal, more Disraeli than Gladstone
I wonder what Disraeli would have made of all this. Probably some theatrical flourishes, a huge amount of money spent both at home and abroad, and the rebranding of Universal Basic Income against protests from the shires, as the "Imperial Standard".
@eadric@Foxy did you see the story from Iceland earlier that was discussed this morning? In a random sample of the population, 1% of individuals had the coronavirus, but, of those, 50% were asymptomatic and 50% had a mild cold. The individuals were not considered to be of high risk (those at risk are being processed separately). This could suggest that the majority of cases are very mild indeed (they have 0.05% of those sampled from risk zones as positive) and might reduce the burden on the health system a bit as it suggests that a sizeable fraction of those infected might display almost no symptoms at all.
Yes, I think the prevalence in Iceland is higher than Italy, per capita. A 1% prevalence in 1000 tested would be a small sample though, even on several consecutive days.
What we really need is a validated test that can show antibodies, rather than active virus. That way we can tell the difference between the asymptomatic cases, and the merely lucky.
I guess I'll keep turning up to work until I get infected, then get over it and go back to work. I'm not that concerned for my 80 year old mum, and my 74 year old father in law with his knackered lungs as we have a plan to keep them going. I'm more concerned about my wife, as she recovers from her breast cancer. She's now back at work a couple of hours a day as a teaching assistant and with her immune system being low, I really don't want her to get it but part of me thinks it'd be better for her to get it now before the country goes batshit!
I guess I'll keep turning up to work until I get infected, then get over it and go back to work. I'm not that concerned for my 80 year old mum, and my 74 year old father in law with his knackered lungs as we have a plan to keep them going. I'm more concerned about my wife, as she recovers from her breast cancer. She's now back at work a couple of hours a day as a teaching assistant and with her immune system being low, I really don't want her to get it but part of me thinks it'd be better for her to get it now before the country goes batshit!
Yes, my attitude too.
I will lob my Mothers day present to my mum from a safe distance and wave from the end of the driveway. Then back to work, I am no shirker.
And I used to think I was sometimes a bit pessimistic
It's worth noting that even the Black Death did not destroy the world economy and return Europe to pre-literate caveman life.
The world economy is complex and yet ethereal. It relies on a suspension of disbelief and on a universal faith in certain things that are deemed beyond debate. For example, that the US Treasury market is endlessly robust and liquid. But I wonder if this is true.
Re-read Cryptonomicon - "Gold is the corpse of value."
The value in the world economy is really the ability to do things. Hence the Spanish reduced themselves to poverty by taking the gold from South America.
I guess I'll keep turning up to work until I get infected, then get over it and go back to work. I'm not that concerned for my 80 year old mum, and my 74 year old father in law with his knackered lungs as we have a plan to keep them going. I'm more concerned about my wife, as she recovers from her breast cancer. She's now back at work a couple of hours a day as a teaching assistant and with her immune system being low, I really don't want her to get it but part of me thinks it'd be better for her to get it now before the country goes batshit!
Yes, my attitude too.
I will lob my Mothers day present to my mum from a safe distance and wave from the end of the driveway. Then back to work, I am no shirker.
Glad to hear that Mrs TFS is doing well. Best wishes.
A person who I had coffee with last Thursday has been confirmed as having the virus. The latest advice seems to be that I don’t self isolate unless I develop symptoms. I don’t have any at the moment.
I think the reality is that many of us are going to come into contact with carriers frequently. We either completely cut ourselves off or carry on until there are symptoms.
It’s a bit troubling though.
According to the BBC you are covered by the previously issued advice:
Anyone who has travelled to an affected area, or who has been in close contact with an infected person, had already been asked to self-isolate for 14 days.
We had coffee not sex. I have a tricky court case tomorrow morning. I am genuinely unsure what to do. Trying to pass it on would be very difficult at this point.
@DavidL The advice about self isolating for 14 days was withdrawn on the 13 March.
Comments
I rather suspect that what they want is everyone to be locked down except themselves and their mates.
As Maggie was fond of telling everyone afterwards.
Be interesting to see where that merry-go-round would stop. My guess would be a government sponsored write-off of bad debt.
Definition of Close Contacts
Close contacts are defined as persons within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) or within the room or care area of a confirmed or probable novel influenza A case patient for a prolonged period of time, or with direct contact with infectious secretions while the case patient was likely to be infectious (beginning 1 day prior to illness onset and continuing until resolution of illness).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/novel-av-chemoprophylaxis-guidance.htm
If it was me I would say having coffee with someone across a table might be a bit more than 6 ft, and one coffee is not prolonged by some definitions, if I wanted to argue that way. Pushing it though.
You're all gonna die. The only question is how you check out. Do you want it on your feet? Or on your fuckin' knees... begging? I ain't much for begging! Nobody ever gave me nothing! So I say *fuck* that thing! Let's fight it!
Incidentally, is NK the only non-African country not to have declared any cases yet?
But remember - Behavioural Science is Fake News, so people escaping from quarantine could not have been predicted.
One other thing - expect pressure for massive cuts in public sector wages and pensions after all this. Because economically public sector workers are going to be largely unaffected, whilst a huge proportion of workers in the private sector will be destitute. And i say that as a public sector worker.
We are going to see a seismic shift over the next six weeks. Many will look back on their views of today and ask themselves how they could be so wrong. This is how normalcy bias works. We don't want to face up to the truth. Even Eadric has his normalcy bias wobbles.
This is going to be utterly horrific. Very soon. Beyond anything any of us have experienced in our lifetimes. And I write that as someone who lived through an epidemic that wiped out 30% of the population where I was living.
(But with all the craziness going on now it's probably correct and Ohio is closing its schools until January!)
But coronavirus is a global sweep. The death rate may 'only' be around 3-5% or so but the effects for the world are devastating. We will never be the same again.
And, remember, this may be just the first of many.
It was bleak. I think you were fooled by the tone of it.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487631-ohio-gov-says-absolutely-possible-schools-stay-closed-to-the-end-of-year
I know it's easier said than done, and we've all felt fear at some times in the last week, but that is true.
My mother in law in provincial Florence terrified today by the continuous sounds of ambulances....
That is why I find some of the comments today by people who do not understand the terror this will bring a bit crass
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1239242219019735042?s=21
My mother in law in provincial Florence terrified today by the continuous sounds of ambulances....
That is why I find some of the comments today by people who do not understand the terror this will bring a bit crass
Yep.
They have no idea. But they will.
On Thursday I started cautiously buying up a few bargains in sectors not likely to severely affected. Still 80% cash though. I will wait to see what transpires, not had the bottom yet.
Remember, that even with a pretty horrible year, this too shall pass.
Where I do agree is that it will be an economic disaster not seen in peacetime
I'll have to make sure I get out and about and enjoy life for however long we have left before we all get incarcerated in our homes under armed guard, because if or when we're ever let back out it's probably going to be 1930s all over again. Or worse.
60% of GOP voters in the US think they are past the worst of this. One of their former leaders might have warned them "You aint seen nothing yet". As they wake up to the economic damage there must be a load of retail sellers to come, especially in the US.
Are there cash rich hedge funds/sovereign wealth funds/multi billionaires ready to go the opposite way? Possibly, there are undoubtedly already good companies at bargain valuations around but we all know they could go a lot lower.
Id guess FTSE touches 4700 at some point this week, DOW 18000. Probably one big up day, two big down days in any order!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-specified-countries-and-areas/covid-19-specified-countries-and-areas-with-implications-for-returning-travellers-or-visitors-arriving-in-the-uk
It was superceded by this advice:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance
And the point is that lockdown, etc., quickly lower the number of true new cases. Italy will almost certainly be seeing lower true new infections already, it's just going to take some time before the official numbers reflect that, because of the 7-10 gap between infection and recognition of the issue.
Stocks won't return to end 2019 levels for at least 2 years.
There are some really good opportunities of course. A few companies are going to rocket. If you can get on whoever develops the vaccine (Gilead?) then bingo.
Govt provides helicopter money of median wage to every adult in the UK
Govt legislates to allow companies to suspend salaries for this period on condition that employees are not expected to work.
Govt also legislates to allow employees of non essential firms to choose not to work and not be paid salary during this period, whilst protecting their right to return afterwards.
If both employer and employee want to be carry on, then employee gets salary plus helicopter money.
Think this broadly protects livelihoods, employment and a large proportion of companies. Can we afford it!? Can we afford not to?
If one person infects 2.5 others the NHS clearly blows up by April/May. As I said before, it's trebles all round for funeral directors. If s/he infects 0.95 others, it causes local outbreaks but it stays under control.
An e-mail from a 76 yr old friend, long retired from the NHS -
'Almost everyone seems to think aiming for herd immunity from this point on is completely mad. To achieve it, the number of infections, and serious illness and death, within a short period would completely overwhelm the NHS and I don't read of any urgent preparations to modify the way the NHS functions. What a disaster the policy was to run down NHS provision and staffing to the point where 95% bed occupancy is the expected norm. Surely any planner (or politician) could see that:
demand doesn't stay at the same level but comes in peaks and troughs
capacity is needed for disinfecting before reuse of beds and equipment
social care has to be at a level where it can support older people to leave hospital instead of being cut to the bone
a novel virus would inevitably emerge at some point.
Over 10 years ago we were given training by the infection control nurse, in my NHS Trust, as to the planning for a pandemic. Yet I now hear politicians say it is totally unexpected and couldn't have been foreseen!'
24 MPs could be told to self isolate.
https://youtu.be/YJTvMmulHsM
Love the fact that he's in his log cabin!
C'ome on you apes! Do you want to live forever?
https://youtu.be/s-_c6V0U-4k
Very much not an expert. dyor.
What we really need is a validated test that can show antibodies, rather than active virus. That way we can tell the difference between the asymptomatic cases, and the merely lucky.
Death cometh soon or late."
I will lob my Mothers day present to my mum from a safe distance and wave from the end of the driveway. Then back to work, I am no shirker.
The value in the world economy is really the ability to do things. Hence the Spanish reduced themselves to poverty by taking the gold from South America.