It seems like Austria has as good as a total lock-down. Only individuals are allowed out i) to buy necessary things. ii) for important implemented wwork or iii) to help other people.
Massive jump to over400 cases in Valencia. we had no restrictions on anything until the weekend. The schools were open etc etc we are now in a state of emergency, things move quickly
No £20 notes left in the ATM. Are people stockpiling cash now? I guess they need cash to buy toilet rolls. Let us hope a run on the banks is not next.
If we move to negative interest rates, it is likely that there would have to be limits on cash circulation in order to stop people hoarding money outside the banking system.
The number of samples is small (700 totally random tests of which if I understand the newspaper around 1-2% were positive but asymptomatic or with a very weak cold). The actual sample size (700) is large enough (0.2% of their population so equivalent to a hundred thousand here) to have some confidence in the results. They will have more data later in the day.
This is, for me, by far the most optimistic thing I've read about the virus for ages. It's still going to be hell for the health system but if asymptomatic cases are at that level it would be very important.
Note also that the PCR will only work when the virus is active - serological studies would indicate those who had been exposed but had since managed to expel the virus. This could also increase the fraction of asymptomatic cases moving forward.
So if the "the PCR will only work when the virus is active" the number of infections is logically even higher than the given range? Do you have any hunch how big that might be?
Interesting the opposition response to government actions is to be predominantly supportive, no one calling for a herd immunity approach and what criticism there is is directed at having allowed the mass women’s day marches last Sunday. Felix may have seen different responses so interested in his opinion.
Agree - but there is considerable anger at the Madrilenos who have appeared overnight as it were. In the longer term this crisis will bring down governments because our 2 week lockdown will no be sufficient - I suspect maybe 2/3 months.
Yep, this is the major problem with a universal lockdown strategy. People sat at home going stir crazy for months on end whilst, for a great many workers in retail and hospitality in particular, their jobs and livelihoods go up in flames all around them.
It's going to be a big enough challenge simply to sequester the elderly in this country. Just the temptation for relatives and friends dropping off shopping to come in for a cup of tea is going to be enormous. And how many of the ones with dogs do we think will last more than a couple of days before starting to take them out walkies again?
How keeping an entire society in stasis for all that time is meant to work God alone knows.
My dog needs walking once, ideally, twice a day. The idea that he - gentle friendly hound that he is - could be locked up for 4 months is for the birds. Fortunately I can get down a back lane to the beach without encountering anyone and walk him there without meeting anyone - or they are so far away as to amount to the same thing.
I would argue you would still be isolating yourself even if you continued to do that walk on a daily basis.
If I still had dogs I could take them out as long as I did not get any closer than a meter to other people.
Interesting the opposition response to government actions is to be predominantly supportive, no one calling for a herd immunity approach and what criticism there is is directed at having allowed the mass women’s day marches last Sunday. Felix may have seen different responses so interested in his opinion.
Agree - but there is considerable anger at the Madrilenos who have appeared overnight as it were. In the longer term this crisis will bring down governments because our 2 week lockdown will no be sufficient - I suspect maybe 2/3 months.
Yep, this is the major problem with a universal lockdown strategy. People sat at home going stir crazy for months on end whilst, for a great many workers in retail and hospitality in particular, their jobs and livelihoods go up in flames all around them.
It's going to be a big enough challenge simply to sequester the elderly in this country. Just the temptation for relatives and friends dropping off shopping to come in for a cup of tea is going to be enormous. And how many of the ones with dogs do we think will last more than a couple of days before starting to take them out walkies again?
How keeping an entire society in stasis for all that time is meant to work God alone knows.
My dog needs walking once, ideally, twice a day. The idea that he - gentle friendly hound that he is - could be locked up for 4 months is for the birds. Fortunately I can get down a back lane to the beach without encountering anyone and walk him there without meeting anyone - or they are so far away as to amount to the same thing.
I would argue you would still be isolating yourself even if you continued to do that walk on a daily basis.
Well quite. I'm in a sparsely populated bit of Devon and can walk my dog. I might see the odd person and have a word from five paces, without having any material risk of exposure. Wear gloves in case you have to open gates, or buy a parking ticket, but otherwise there is no risk of contact that is going to pass the virus.
I expect my 85 year old neighbour will continue to walk his dog around his fields. He is at 0.00000% additional risk in doing so.
Interesting the opposition response to government actions is to be predominantly supportive, no one calling for a herd immunity approach and what criticism there is is directed at having allowed the mass women’s day marches last Sunday. Felix may have seen different responses so interested in his opinion.
Agree - but there is considerable anger at the Madrilenos who have appeared overnight as it were. In the longer term this crisis will bring down governments because our 2 week lockdown will no be sufficient - I suspect maybe 2/3 months.
Yep, this is the major problem with a universal lockdown strategy. People sat at home going stir crazy for months on end whilst, for a great many workers in retail and hospitality in particular, their jobs and livelihoods go up in flames all around them.
It's going to be a big enough challenge simply to sequester the elderly in this country. Just the temptation for relatives and friends dropping off shopping to come in for a cup of tea is going to be enormous. And how many of the ones with dogs do we think will last more than a couple of days before starting to take them out walkies again?
How keeping an entire society in stasis for all that time is meant to work God alone knows.
My dog needs walking once, ideally, twice a day. The idea that he - gentle friendly hound that he is - could be locked up for 4 months is for the birds. Fortunately I can get down a back lane to the beach without encountering anyone and walk him there without meeting anyone - or they are so far away as to amount to the same thing.
I would argue you would still be isolating yourself even if you continued to do that walk on a daily basis.
If I still had dogs I could take them out as long as I did not get any closer than a meter to other people.
Until dogs start spreading a mutation of the virus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In practice any system of lock-down or quarantine would have to rely on voluntary compliance - the resources simply do not exist to impose it on unwilling over 70 year olds.
No £20 notes left in the ATM. Are people stockpiling cash now? I guess they need cash to buy toilet rolls. Let us hope a run on the banks is not next.
I have a little stack of Silver and Gold coins. Wasn't assuming I'd want to use them to buy stuff in Morrisons even though technically bullion coins are legal tender, albeit at some absurd low face value vs the price of the metal.
Last week the IATA forecasting we were looking at already looked out of date.
I must now assume 50%+ likelihood of losing my job in the next 3 months. My company has strong financial muscle but I am probably not needed in a “keeping the lights on” scenario. At least I am on 6 months notice period.
I think I am relatively employable?
I have a heavy mortgage but one must hope that in extremis I can move to interest free, and/or govt mandated mortgage holiday.
Lol - can this be the same Nicola Sturgeon who came out of the COBR meeting last week and started spouting off?
Unlike the Fcukwit Tories, she came out and calmly explained the next steps, Boris meanwhile went for a long lunch before coming back with his experts and telling us they were going for Herd Immunity. LOL right enough, these idiots want to be taking some lessons.
They can't win....they get bashed from pillar to post for not closing down stuff and locking everybody down immediately, despite repeatedly explaining why.
Now they say well this is the next step and we are telling over 70s you need to prepare for 4 months lockdowned...outrageous, terrible, the government are shit.
They didn't explain it.
Someone used the phrase her immunity. the Government did not resile from that stance for 3 days.
The health strategy may be brilliant. The public information strategy is garbage, and they are rightly being criticized for it.
Daily press conferences should be the minimum.
Mass gatherings have *not* been banned
It is on the list of policy options that will be used in the coming days and weeks
Yeah, another willful misrepresentation of current policy. And it will undoubtedly be described as a U-turn despite them constantly banging on about the fact it is a matter of timing.
Do we want them to do the work or prepare for press conferences?
That's the point. They need to do both.
The greatest strategy in the World is going to fail if they don't bring the public with them, and right now they are fucking that up.
Your evidence for that is ?
Let me guess ...
... a tweet.
Everyone is now clamouring for stronger measures. A few days ago the response would have been "fuck that, it's just like getting a cold". They're playing games with our heads. Personally I'd like a last parkrun on Saturday before the ban hammer comes down.
Before the lockdown I am doing two things whilst I still can 1. Eat, drink and be merry 2. Running 5k a day in the gym to start the day
If you are big into working out, probably worth ordering some kit you can continue to do things at home. Kettlebell is very good.
run up and down the stairs, or run round the inside of the house if your layout allows it.
Lol - can this be the same Nicola Sturgeon who came out of the COBR meeting last week and started spouting off?
Unlike the Fcukwit Tories, she came out and calmly explained the next steps, Boris meanwhile went for a long lunch before coming back with his experts and telling us they were going for Herd Immunity. LOL right enough, these idiots want to be taking some lessons.
It was thirty minutes later. And I don't recall Sturgeon's conference being any calmer than the PM's one. It just smacked of her trying to one-up the PM.
They can't win....they get bashed from pillar to post for not closing down stuff and locking everybody down immediately, despite repeatedly explaining why.
Now they say well this is the next step and we are telling over 70s you need to prepare for 4 months lockdowned...outrageous, terrible, the government are shit.
They didn't explain it.
Someone used the phrase her immunity. the Government did not resile from that stance for 3 days.
The health strategy may be brilliant. The public information strategy is garbage, and they are rightly being criticized for it.
Daily press conferences should be the minimum.
Mass gatherings have *not* been banned
It is on the list of policy options that will be used in the coming days and weeks
Yeah, another willful misrepresentation of current policy. And it will undoubtedly be described as a U-turn despite them constantly banging on about the fact it is a matter of timing.
What is the reason for delaying?
That the measures will have to be in place for a very long time, and doing it at the right time is key to maximising their impact. I've lost track of the number of times the two boffins have said this.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
I have flight radar app on my phone, originally to see out of interest the identity of the many flights coming over Llandudno and North Wales, but also worldwide
I recommend it is downloaded onto most posters mobile as it will be fascinating to see the fall in international and domestic flights in the coming weeks
I have one for the ships going past my window. Cargo in the channel looks as busy as ever.
Which plane app do you recommend?
I use flight radar. I just use their basic offer and it is free and amazing
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
They can't win....they get bashed from pillar to post for not closing down stuff and locking everybody down immediately, despite repeatedly explaining why.
Now they say well this is the next step and we are telling over 70s you need to prepare for 4 months lockdowned...outrageous, terrible, the government are shit.
They didn't explain it.
Someone used the phrase her immunity. the Government did not resile from that stance for 3 days.
The health strategy may be brilliant. The public information strategy is garbage, and they are rightly being criticized for it.
Daily press conferences should be the minimum.
"at the moment" was last Thursday.
On Friday evening thry cancelled all the big spring mass-entry marathons. They were due to take place in April. They are obviously a big risk. Ditto things like Premiership football matches.
They may now ban all events over 500, but probably not until next weekend.
"Chief Scientific Adviser admits officials and government think it is “helpful” if some “herd immunity” is built up"
is a statement of fact. Not necessarily a policy goal...
True, but the takeaway message from the big press conference, intended or not, was that this was the policy goal. As was confirmed by the subsequent discussions here by folks on both sides of the argument.
For now, I am giving up second guessing government policy, as it’s become very clear overnight that it is a work in progress rather than a settled strategy. I’ll be very happy if policy is communicated clearly to everyone, even if I disagree with it. (The decision to release the modelling they’ve been doing is a good one.)
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 7,753 cases have been confirmed in Spain. There have been 517 hospital discharges, 382 people are in the ICU and 288 people have died. In the Community of Madrid alone, there are 3,544 cases and 213 deaths.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
They are places that can provide critical support for thousands of people.....
We have to hope that China gets back to business quickly...and as our health systems collapse- they can help us like they are currently doing in Italy....
I have more faith in that quite frankly than our current capacity of about 1000 available ICU beds and some idiots twittering on about herds
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
They are places that can provide critical support for thousands of people.....
We have to hope that China gets back to business quickly...and as our health systems collapse- they can help us like they are currently doing in Italy....
No they aren't. If you needed critical care you got transferred. The expert on us tv explained the other day, the China system was all about funneling people through a system and they didn't want anybody with the virus at home.
These ones in stadiums etc, where more about keeping people away from the public and checking they weren't getting worse. It was an additional way of isolating those who were infected. They were no more than giant dormitories, with food provided and some medical staff on hand to keep an eye on people. It wasn't designed to deal with the critically ill.
If they did they had to go to proper medical facilities plus the 2 prefab ones.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 7,753 cases have been confirmed in Spain. There have been 517 hospital discharges, 382 people are in the ICU and 288 people have died. In the Community of Madrid alone, there are 3,544 cases and 213 deaths.
Doesn't that suggest the cases are underreported by a factor of about ten?
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
China will be blamed for causing the virus to begin with.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
They are places that can provide critical support for thousands of people.....
We have to hope that China gets back to business quickly...and as our health systems collapse- they can help us like they are currently doing in Italy....
I have more faith in that quite frankly than our current capacity of about 1000 available ICU beds and some idiots twittering on about herds
You have more faith in the Chinese government to help the UK than the UK government?
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
I think the process in China was symptoms-fever clinic-isolation clinic-acute hospital-ICU
I think it is the quick isolation of symptomatic patients that is now a bit surplus.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 7,753 cases have been confirmed in Spain. There have been 517 hospital discharges, 382 people are in the ICU and 288 people have died. In the Community of Madrid alone, there are 3,544 cases and 213 deaths.
Or betwen 4.9% and 6% dead. However, you'd have to hope that many more mild cases are going under the radar and not being tested / confirmed at all.
There's some weird regional variations going on with supermarkets. Coop here this morning was like a normal day.
Coop shoppers clearly have a greater sense of being part of a community than those who buy their food from capitalist retailers.
Aren't Co-Op food now owned by the hedge funds?
That's the bank
Indeed. Co-op Group still owned by people like me. And in parts of the country you have independent Co-op societies who are operationally independent of Co-op Group just to make life complicated. Other co-op's to note are Waitrose and Nisa.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 7,753 cases have been confirmed in Spain. There have been 517 hospital discharges, 382 people are in the ICU and 288 people have died. In the Community of Madrid alone, there are 3,544 cases and 213 deaths.
Doesn't that suggest the cases are underreported by a factor of about ten?
I'd guess far higher than that... But that still doesn't mean that we need to stop protecting the elderly / infirm - they are vulnerable from this
Yeah, hopefully no one is suggesting that we are going to stop that. It also means it's well established, with maybe 50,000-100,000 cases already.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
I think the process in China was symptoms-fever clinic-isolation clinic-acute hospital-ICU
I think it is the quick isolation of symptomatic patients that is now a bit surplus.
Right...The idea was nobody with this was trusted to be out in public. You entered the "funnel" and you were pushed through to the level at which your condition required.
Thus a huge number of people in these hospitals were sick, but not requiring ICU. In the west, these are the people we are trusting to self isolate and take their own basic flu medication.
There's some weird regional variations going on with supermarkets. Coop here this morning was like a normal day.
Coop shoppers clearly have a greater sense of being part of a community than those who buy their food from capitalist retailers.
Aren't Co-Op food now owned by the hedge funds?
That's the bank
Indeed. Co-op Group still owned by people like me. And in parts of the country you have independent Co-op societies who are operationally independent of Co-op Group just to make life complicated. Other co-op's to note are Waitrose and Nisa.
Nisa used to be a mutual but has been a wholly owned subsidiary of the Co-op Group since 2018. On the plus side for you this means you own it!
They can't win....they get bashed from pillar to post for not closing down stuff and locking everybody down immediately, despite repeatedly explaining why.
Now they say well this is the next step and we are telling over 70s you need to prepare for 4 months lockdowned...outrageous, terrible, the government are shit.
They didn't explain it.
Someone used the phrase her immunity. the Government did not resile from that stance for 3 days.
The health strategy may be brilliant. The public information strategy is garbage, and they are rightly being criticized for it.
Daily press conferences should be the minimum.
Mass gatherings have *not* been banned
It is on the list of policy options that will be used in the coming days and weeks
Yeah, another willful misrepresentation of current policy. And it will undoubtedly be described as a U-turn despite them constantly banging on about the fact it is a matter of timing.
What is the reason for delaying?
That the measures will have to be in place for a very long time, and doing it at the right time is key to maximising their impact. I've lost track of the number of times the two boffins have said this.
What makes it the right time and how does that maximise the impact?
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
They are places that can provide critical support for thousands of people.....
We have to hope that China gets back to business quickly...and as our health systems collapse- they can help us like they are currently doing in Italy....
No they aren't. If you needed critical care you got transferred. The expert on us tv explained the other day, the China system was all about funneling people through a system and they didn't want anybody with the virus at home.
These ones in stadiums etc, where more about keeping people away from the public and checking they weren't getting worse. It was an additional way of isolating those who were infected. They were no more than giant dormitories, with food provided and some medical staff on hand to keep an eye on people. It wasn't designed to deal with the critically ill.
If they did they had to go to proper medical facilities plus the 2 prefab ones.
That's true- obviously they were not ICU beds....but their health system eventually withstood the crisis, and will probably do so again when it rebounds.....
I think Foxes idea about Campus student accommodation being requisitioned sounds good to isolate and treat- especially those places like UEA which are attached pretty much to a hospital.....
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
They are places that can provide critical support for thousands of people.....
We have to hope that China gets back to business quickly...and as our health systems collapse- they can help us like they are currently doing in Italy....
No they aren't. If you needed critical care you got transferred. The expert on us tv explained the other day, the China system was all about funneling people through a system and they didn't want anybody with the virus at home.
These ones in stadiums etc, where more about keeping people away from the public and checking they weren't getting worse. It was an additional way of isolating those who were infected. They were no more than giant dormitories, with food provided and some medical staff on hand to keep an eye on people. It wasn't designed to deal with the critically ill.
If they did they had to go to proper medical facilities plus the 2 prefab ones.
That's true- obviously they were not ICU beds....but their health system withstood the crisis, and will probably do so again when it rebounds.....
I think Foxes idea about Campus student accommodation being requisitioned sounds good to isolate and treat- especially those places like UEA which are attached pretty much to a hospital.....
From what I understand, they are definitely building more (lets call it) proper capacity and obviously even more surveillance of the population. Which obviously makes one believe they think this thing isn't going away any time soon.
No issue with sticking people in uni halls. That is what they did with the first lot they brought back from China (obviously for different reasons). In most modern uni halls, they are en-suite and a very high standard.
They can't win....they get bashed from pillar to post for not closing down stuff and locking everybody down immediately, despite repeatedly explaining why.
Now they say well this is the next step and we are telling over 70s you need to prepare for 4 months lockdowned...outrageous, terrible, the government are shit.
They didn't explain it.
Someone used the phrase her immunity. the Government did not resile from that stance for 3 days.
The health strategy may be brilliant. The public information strategy is garbage, and they are rightly being criticized for it.
Daily press conferences should be the minimum.
Mass gatherings have *not* been banned
It is on the list of policy options that will be used in the coming days and weeks
Yeah, another willful misrepresentation of current policy. And it will undoubtedly be described as a U-turn despite them constantly banging on about the fact it is a matter of timing.
What is the reason for delaying?
That the measures will have to be in place for a very long time, and doing it at the right time is key to maximising their impact. I've lost track of the number of times the two boffins have said this.
What makes it the right time and how does that maximise the impact?
That's the decision they have to make based on the information they have. I am in no way qualified to even attempt a guess.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
I think the process in China was symptoms-fever clinic-isolation clinic-acute hospital-ICU
I think it is the quick isolation of symptomatic patients that is now a bit surplus.
Right...The idea was nobody with this was trusted to be out in public. You entered the "funnel" and you were pushed through to the level at which your condition required.
Thus a huge number of people in these hospitals were sick, but not requiring ICU. In the west, these are the people we are trusting to self isolate and take their own basic flu medication.
If we were to go down a similar route, Hancock today seemed open but not committed to the idea of hiring and fitting out hotels.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
I think the process in China was symptoms-fever clinic-isolation clinic-acute hospital-ICU
I think it is the quick isolation of symptomatic patients that is now a bit surplus.
Right...The idea was nobody with this was trusted to be out in public. You entered the "funnel" and you were pushed through to the level at which your condition required.
Thus a huge number of people in these hospitals were sick, but not requiring ICU. In the west, these are the people we are trusting to self isolate and take their own basic flu medication.
If we were to go down a similar route, Hancock today seemed open but not committed to the idea of hiring and fitting out hotels.
I have to say I think the uni halls idea is better. You can get a hell of a lot of people on a single campus all within close proximity to provide food and monitor them.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 7,753 cases have been confirmed in Spain. There have been 517 hospital discharges, 382 people are in the ICU and 288 people have died. In the Community of Madrid alone, there are 3,544 cases and 213 deaths.
Doesn't that suggest the cases are underreported by a factor of about ten?
Are you extrapolating from the death rate being more like 0.5% rather than 5%? I doubt it is under reporting to hide the scale of the problem just self isolating cases that aren’t recorded.
It is clear that France and Germany are basically on the basically on the same page. They wouldn't talk about 50-60-70% of people getting it if they weren't. They just don't want to spell it out in the way the CMO / CSO have here.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 7,753 cases have been confirmed in Spain. There have been 517 hospital discharges, 382 people are in the ICU and 288 people have died. In the Community of Madrid alone, there are 3,544 cases and 213 deaths.
Doesn't that suggest the cases are underreported by a factor of about ten?
Are you extrapolating from the death rate being more like 0.5% rather than 5%? I doubt it is under reporting to hide the scale of the problem just self isolating cases that aren’t recorded.
Yeah, not saying they are hiding it, just that there are far more cases out there that have gone undetected.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
They are places that can provide critical support for thousands of people.....
We have to hope that China gets back to business quickly...and as our health systems collapse- they can help us like they are currently doing in Italy....
No they aren't. If you needed critical care you got transferred. The expert on us tv explained the other day, the China system was all about funneling people through a system and they didn't want anybody with the virus at home.
These ones in stadiums etc, where more about keeping people away from the public and checking they weren't getting worse. It was an additional way of isolating those who were infected. They were no more than giant dormitories, with food provided and some medical staff on hand to keep an eye on people. It wasn't designed to deal with the critically ill.
If they did they had to go to proper medical facilities plus the 2 prefab ones.
That's true- obviously they were not ICU beds....but their health system eventually withstood the crisis, and will probably do so again when it rebounds.....
I think Foxes idea about Campus student accommodation being requisitioned sounds good to isolate and treat- especially those places like UEA which are attached pretty much to a hospital.....
I don't think that I have suggested that, but there are dafter ideas. It will be quite difficult for people to successfully isolate at home without onward transmission happening.
They can't win....they get bashed from pillar to post for not closing down stuff and locking everybody down immediately, despite repeatedly explaining why.
Now they say well this is the next step and we are telling over 70s you need to prepare for 4 months lockdowned...outrageous, terrible, the government are shit.
They didn't explain it.
Someone used the phrase her immunity. the Government did not resile from that stance for 3 days.
The health strategy may be brilliant. The public information strategy is garbage, and they are rightly being criticized for it.
Daily press conferences should be the minimum.
"at the moment" was last Thursday.
On Friday evening thry cancelled all the big spring mass-entry marathons. They were due to take place in April. They are obviously a big risk. Ditto things like Premiership football matches.
They may now ban all events over 500, but probably not until next weekend.
"Chief Scientific Adviser admits officials and government think it is “helpful” if some “herd immunity” is built up"
is a statement of fact. Not necessarily a policy goal...
True, but the takeaway message from the big press conference, intended or not, was that this was the policy goal. As was confirmed by the subsequent discussions here by folks on both sides of the argument.
For now, I am giving up second guessing government policy, as it’s become very clear overnight that it is a work in progress rather than a settled strategy. I’ll be very happy if policy is communicated clearly to everyone, even if I disagree with it. (The decision to release the modelling they’ve been doing is a good one.)
Off for a walk in the fresh air.
The only stable end states are herd immunity, vaccination, or virus mutation to a more harmless form. A virus that spreads as quickly as Corona but doesn’t kill many of its victims isn’t otherwise going to disappear, or shrink to survive only in small pockets like Ebola or SARS.
So, pending either some luck or eighteen months of medical trials, herd immunity is an entirely sensible goal. The government’s broad approach was correct.
What hasn’t gone so well is the explanation and the PR (as has been very evident from the discussion here, despite our great capacity for independent thought and discussion).
People have heard about herd immunity and taken away that we’re all supposed to get ill and the lucky (majority) will live on to protect our old folks. That message isn’t going down as well as the government had hoped. Not enough emphasis was given to the measures that were always needed to avoid the epidemic getting out of hand,
People want to feel in control of events, and if the government isn’t promising to magic away the threat, will retreat to otherwise irrational behaviour like buying yet more toilet roll.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
I think the process in China was symptoms-fever clinic-isolation clinic-acute hospital-ICU
I think it is the quick isolation of symptomatic patients that is now a bit surplus.
Right...The idea was nobody with this was trusted to be out in public. You entered the "funnel" and you were pushed through to the level at which your condition required.
Thus a huge number of people in these hospitals were sick, but not requiring ICU. In the west, these are the people we are trusting to self isolate and take their own basic flu medication.
If we were to go down a similar route, Hancock today seemed open but not committed to the idea of hiring and fitting out hotels.
I have to say I think the uni halls idea is better. You can get a hell of a lot of people on a single campus all within close proximity to provide food and monitor them.
Would otherwise redundant cruise ships mored in harbours work?
There's some weird regional variations going on with supermarkets. Coop here this morning was like a normal day.
Coop shoppers clearly have a greater sense of being part of a community than those who buy their food from capitalist retailers.
Aren't Co-Op food now owned by the hedge funds?
That's the bank
Indeed. Co-op Group still owned by people like me. And in parts of the country you have independent Co-op societies who are operationally independent of Co-op Group just to make life complicated. Other co-op's to note are Waitrose and Nisa.
Nisa used to be a mutual but has been a wholly owned subsidiary of the Co-op Group since 2018. On the plus side for you this means you own it!
Co-op group bought the name and the supply chain. They didn't buy the independent businesses within Nisa as Nisa didn't own them. Which is why I didn't get the Sainsbury's interest - at no point were they about to acquire thousands of Convenience Stores as the actual stores were never up for sale.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
China will be blamed for causing the virus to begin with.
And rightly so. The Chinese Government is capable of wide-ranging and decisive action (e.g. the genocidal butchery of the Uighurs) when it wants to take it, but it won't even stop its people from killing endangered wild animals by the truckload and flogging the meat in open air markets.
If we're all to be expected to move towards more plant-based diets, give up petrol-engined cars and gas-fired central heating, and other such significant lifestyle changes in the coming years then I'm sure they can manage without eating pangolins.
Lol - can this be the same Nicola Sturgeon who came out of the COBR meeting last week and started spouting off?
Unlike the Fcukwit Tories, she came out and calmly explained the next steps, Boris meanwhile went for a long lunch before coming back with his experts and telling us they were going for Herd Immunity. LOL right enough, these idiots want to be taking some lessons.
It was thirty minutes later. And I don't recall Sturgeon's conference being any calmer than the PM's one. It just smacked of her trying to one-up the PM.
Only in the minds of inadequate Tories Rob. I assume you think she should have known her place and hidden until Boris had spoken and then came out of hiding to say I agree with Boris. Would you expect that of any other nation?
The Spanish lockdown is actually a lockdown of those who have retired as you can still go to work if your place of employment is still operating. It’s just not called lock the old buggers up. A lot of British pensioners here will have to learn to cook again after ten years on menu del dia, three courses for €10
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 7,753 cases have been confirmed in Spain. There have been 517 hospital discharges, 382 people are in the ICU and 288 people have died. In the Community of Madrid alone, there are 3,544 cases and 213 deaths.
Doesn't that suggest the cases are underreported by a factor of about ten?
Are you extrapolating from the death rate being more like 0.5% rather than 5%? I doubt it is under reporting to hide the scale of the problem just self isolating cases that aren’t recorded.
The death rate is mostly a function of the ratio of elderly (70+) to non-elderly people who are contracting the virus.
It is clear that France and Germany are basically on the basically on the same page. They wouldn't talk about 50-60-70% of people getting it if they weren't. They just don't want to spell it out in the way the CMO / CSO have here.
I wonder if to some extent the frankness of the Thursday briefing is now providing some cover for other countries?
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
How many do we have in place planned given they seem to have worked?
Lol - can this be the same Nicola Sturgeon who came out of the COBR meeting last week and started spouting off?
Unlike the Fcukwit Tories, she came out and calmly explained the next steps, Boris meanwhile went for a long lunch before coming back with his experts and telling us they were going for Herd Immunity. LOL right enough, these idiots want to be taking some lessons.
It was thirty minutes later. And I don't recall Sturgeon's conference being any calmer than the PM's one. It just smacked of her trying to one-up the PM.
Only in the minds of inadequate Tories Rob. I assume you think she should have known her place and hidden until Boris had spoken and then came out of hiding to say I agree with Boris. Would you expect that of any other nation?
Well she got out first and said I agree with Boris before he spoke, since she outlined the conclusion of the Cobra meeting which was agreed between them and the relevant ministers.
The Spanish lockdown is actually a lockdown of those who have retired as you can still go to work if your place of employment is still operating. It’s just not called lock the old buggers up. A lot of British pensioners here will have to learn to cook again after ten years on menu del dia, three courses for €10
Anyone in Spain who can produce large quantities of a microwave English breakfast should clean up.
The corona virus has brutally exposed our civil service who prefer to talk about things than actually take action. My brother a dean of surgery was joking with me last night that the word in the NHS was the UK strategy was to be part of a clinical study where the UK population was used as the control group with no treatment given.
The supply chain in the UK is incredibly exposed as we all know but the Government has done nothing to secure it so far. My company which is a core part of the NHS supply chain (e.g. we can rapidly sterilize a respirator after use so it can be given to another patient) has so far had no contact with PHE although the local Scots have been more proactive. Our Government just does not know how to get out of its fancy offices and hit the road to get things moving at the sharp end.
The lock down will come on Monday not because the government wants to but because it is being forced to by international and domestic pressure. We have it appears so far by luck avoided a hot spot in the UK and this means we may well be able to avoid one saving the bacon of the government.
Will the government learn the lessons from this event. One can only hope. It will need to get a lot better quickly so we can exit the lock down without a resurgence.
Just thinking about all the uni campuses I visit, I would have thought somewhere like Warwick would be perfect.
They have massive capacity on a single large campus, which isn't far from Coventry and Birmingham if you need to transfer people up the chain.
Newcastle University campus is (literally) right across the road from the Royal Victoria Infirmary. Could service Northumberland, North Cumbria, and most of County Durham.
Seems like UK, France, Germany all following basically same policy.
HMG perhaps trying to be more open about it, but should avoid off the record briefings to Peston and exclusive articles for their pet media organs.
The BBC also needs to wake the f up. No need to invite Farage, the leader of Sinn Fein, and Ash Sarkar for an alternative POV.
I am a big advocate of the BBC but they do seem to be selecting pundits based on entertainment value rather than who could actually contribute sensibly.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
I think the process in China was symptoms-fever clinic-isolation clinic-acute hospital-ICU
I think it is the quick isolation of symptomatic patients that is now a bit surplus.
Right...The idea was nobody with this was trusted to be out in public. You entered the "funnel" and you were pushed through to the level at which your condition required.
Thus a huge number of people in these hospitals were sick, but not requiring ICU. In the west, these are the people we are trusting to self isolate and take their own basic flu medication.
If we were to go down a similar route, Hancock today seemed open but not committed to the idea of hiring and fitting out hotels.
I have to say I think the uni halls idea is better. You can get a hell of a lot of people on a single campus all within close proximity to provide food and monitor them.
Would otherwise redundant cruise ships mored in harbours work?
You want a bit of fresh air and ventilation , cruise ships would be worst idea I reckon as we saw in Japan.
They can't win....they get bashed from pillar to post for not closing down stuff and locking everybody down immediately, despite repeatedly explaining why.
Now they say well this is the next step and we are telling over 70s you need to prepare for 4 months lockdowned...outrageous, terrible, the government are shit.
They didn't explain it.
Someone used the phrase her immunity. the Government did not resile from that stance for 3 days.
The health strategy may be brilliant. The public information strategy is garbage, and they are rightly being criticized for it.
Daily press conferences should be the minimum.
"at the moment" was last Thursday.
On Friday evening thry cancelled all the big spring mass-entry marathons. They were due to take place in April. They are obviously a big risk. Ditto things like Premiership football matches.
They may now ban all events over 500, but probably not until next weekend.
"Chief Scientific Adviser admits officials and government think it is “helpful” if some “herd immunity” is built up"
is a statement of fact. Not necessarily a policy goal...
True, but the takeaway message from the big press conference, intended or not, was that this was the policy goal. As was confirmed by the subsequent discussions here by folks on both sides of the argument.
For now, I am giving up second guessing government policy, as it’s become very clear overnight that it is a work in progress rather than a settled strategy. I’ll be very happy if policy is communicated clearly to everyone, even if I disagree with it. (The decision to release the modelling they’ve been doing is a good one.)
Off for a walk in the fresh air.
The only stable end states are herd immunity, vaccination, or virus mutation to a more harmless form. A virus that spreads as quickly as Corona but doesn’t kill many of its victims isn’t otherwise going to disappear, or shrink to survive only in small pockets like Ebola or SARS.
So, pending either some luck or eighteen months of medical trials, herd immunity is an entirely sensible goal. The government’s broad approach was correct.
What hasn’t gone so well is the explanation and the PR (as has been very evident from the discussion here, despite our great capacity for independent thought and discussion).
People have heard about herd immunity and taken away that we’re all supposed to get ill and the lucky (majority) will live on to protect our old folks. That message isn’t going down as well as the government had hoped. Not enough emphasis was given to the measures that were always needed to avoid the epidemic getting out of hand,
People want to feel in control of events, and if the government isn’t promising to magic away the threat, will retreat to otherwise irrational behaviour like buying yet more toilet roll.
Herd immunity requires a 60-70% infection rate, about 40 million cases in UK. Whether 0.5% or 5% rate that is major mortality.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
I think the process in China was symptoms-fever clinic-isolation clinic-acute hospital-ICU
I think it is the quick isolation of symptomatic patients that is now a bit surplus.
Right...The idea was nobody with this was trusted to be out in public. You entered the "funnel" and you were pushed through to the level at which your condition required.
Thus a huge number of people in these hospitals were sick, but not requiring ICU. In the west, these are the people we are trusting to self isolate and take their own basic flu medication.
If we were to go down a similar route, Hancock today seemed open but not committed to the idea of hiring and fitting out hotels.
I have to say I think the uni halls idea is better. You can get a hell of a lot of people on a single campus all within close proximity to provide food and monitor them.
Would otherwise redundant cruise ships mored in harbours work?
You want a bit of fresh air and ventilation , cruise ships would be worst idea I reckon as we saw in Japan.
You're only going to put people in there who already have C-19 and the majority of rooms on most ships have balconies - just use those.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
They are places that can provide critical support for thousands of people.....
We have to hope that China gets back to business quickly...and as our health systems collapse- they can help us like they are currently doing in Italy....
No they aren't. If you needed critical care you got transferred. The expert on us tv explained the other day, the China system was all about funneling people through a system and they didn't want anybody with the virus at home.
These ones in stadiums etc, where more about keeping people away from the public and checking they weren't getting worse. It was an additional way of isolating those who were infected. They were no more than giant dormitories, with food provided and some medical staff on hand to keep an eye on people. It wasn't designed to deal with the critically ill.
If they did they had to go to proper medical facilities plus the 2 prefab ones.
That's true- obviously they were not ICU beds....but their health system eventually withstood the crisis, and will probably do so again when it rebounds.....
I think Foxes idea about Campus student accommodation being requisitioned sounds good to isolate and treat- especially those places like UEA which are attached pretty much to a hospital.....
I don't think that I have suggested that, but there are dafter ideas. It will be quite difficult for people to successfully isolate at home without onward transmission happening.
It must have been someone else......I am sure building capacity is the number one priority....if we do get to the situation where people are dying at home for a perfectly treatable disease (note how few have succumbed in Germany so far) which I fear......then that would be horrendous...
The differential death rates around the world are merely a reflection of how well equipped the respective health systems are coping....you can keep 80 year old plusses alive with co-morbidity on ICU units for weeks
If every health system collapses in the west the death rates will all pretty much be the same
There's some weird regional variations going on with supermarkets. Coop here this morning was like a normal day.
Coop shoppers clearly have a greater sense of being part of a community than those who buy their food from capitalist retailers.
Aren't Co-Op food now owned by the hedge funds?
That's the bank
Indeed. Co-op Group still owned by people like me. And in parts of the country you have independent Co-op societies who are operationally independent of Co-op Group just to make life complicated. Other co-op's to note are Waitrose and Nisa.
Nisa used to be a mutual but has been a wholly owned subsidiary of the Co-op Group since 2018. On the plus side for you this means you own it!
Co-op group bought the name and the supply chain. They didn't buy the independent businesses within Nisa as Nisa didn't own them. Which is why I didn't get the Sainsbury's interest - at no point were they about to acquire thousands of Convenience Stores as the actual stores were never up for sale.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if historians of the future conclude that this crisis was the moment when China eclipsed the US as the world’s principal power. Whether we will read any such books in our lifetime is another matter.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 7,753 cases have been confirmed in Spain. There have been 517 hospital discharges, 382 people are in the ICU and 288 people have died. In the Community of Madrid alone, there are 3,544 cases and 213 deaths.
Doesn't that suggest the cases are underreported by a factor of about ten?
I'd guess far higher than that... But that still doesn't mean that we need to stop protecting the elderly / infirm - they are vulnerable from this
I wish people would stop saying things like unfirm or weak. I’m perfectly healthy, do a tough job, lead a great and fulfilling life. Outwardly, I look no different to anyone else my age (actually, people usually think I’m ten years young, but I wouldn’t like to brag).
What I am, however, is someone who has a condition that requires medication to make sure that I am all of those things. All around you there will be people with hypertension, or diabetics, or those with cardiovascular problems. Who are those being reported from Italy and such who are battling this virus in their thirties, forties, fifties, even younger than that? People that I’ve just mentioned, the high risk groups.
Those who are elderly and infirm do have a real problem. The stark truth is that they are more likely to be denied treatment as and when choosing who to treat becomes necessary. Keeping the younger ones out of ICU who are putting up a hell of a fight over a period of weeks would be to their benefit as well.
The author of the widely quoted report that states 80% get mild symptoms now says he regrets using their term. Within that 80%, there are not insignificant numbers who suffer the worst flu ever and pneumonia.
The point he was trying to highlight was the remaining 20% are extremely ill bordering right on the verge of requiring hospitalization to obviously those who are critical.
In an alternative timeline, where TMay had not committed Hara Kiri in 2017, PB is arguing about whether an amendment to the FTPA should be passed to postpone the May 2020 General Election.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
I think the process in China was symptoms-fever clinic-isolation clinic-acute hospital-ICU
I think it is the quick isolation of symptomatic patients that is now a bit surplus.
Right...The idea was nobody with this was trusted to be out in public. You entered the "funnel" and you were pushed through to the level at which your condition required.
Thus a huge number of people in these hospitals were sick, but not requiring ICU. In the west, these are the people we are trusting to self isolate and take their own basic flu medication.
If we were to go down a similar route, Hancock today seemed open but not committed to the idea of hiring and fitting out hotels.
I have to say I think the uni halls idea is better. You can get a hell of a lot of people on a single campus all within close proximity to provide food and monitor them.
Would otherwise redundant cruise ships mored in harbours work?
You want a bit of fresh air and ventilation , cruise ships would be worst idea I reckon as we saw in Japan.
You're only going to put people in there who already have C-19 and the majority of rooms on most ships have balconies - just use those.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if historians of the future conclude that this crisis was the moment when China eclipsed the US as the world’s principal power. Whether we will read any such books in our lifetime is another matter.
It depends how the US react. Putting aside Orange man, there is obviously clear underlying structural problems in the US. We all know that, and why Trump got in in the first place and why Sanders has such a following.
They could, as they have done in the past, bounce back stronger and better than ever before, or as you say this could be the moment that China shows it is now the top dog.
They can't win....they get bashed from pillar to post for not closing down stuff and locking everybody down immediately, despite repeatedly explaining why.
Now they say well this is the next step and we are telling over 70s you need to prepare for 4 months lockdowned...outrageous, terrible, the government are shit.
They didn't explain it.
Someone used the phrase her immunity. the Government did not resile from that stance for 3 days.
The health strategy may be brilliant. The public information strategy is garbage, and they are rightly being criticized for it.
Daily press conferences should be the minimum.
"at the moment" was last Thursday.
On Friday evening thry cancelled all the big spring mass-entry marathons. They were due to take place in April. They are obviously a big risk. Ditto things like Premiership football matches.
They may now ban all events over 500, but probably not until next weekend.
"Chief Scientific Adviser admits officials and government think it is “helpful” if some “herd immunity” is built up"
is a statement of fact. Not necessarily a policy goal...
True, but the takeaway message from the big press conference, intended or not, was that this was the policy goal. As was confirmed by the subsequent discussions here by folks on both sides of the argument.
For now, I am giving up second guessing government policy, as it’s become very clear overnight that it is a work in progress rather than a settled strategy. I’ll be very happy if policy is communicated clearly to everyone, even if I disagree with it. (The decision to release the modelling they’ve been doing is a good one.)
Off for a walk in the fresh air.
The only stable end states are herd immunity, vaccination, or virus mutation to a more harmless form. A virus that spreads as quickly as Corona but doesn’t kill many of its victims isn’t otherwise going to disappear, or shrink to survive only in small pockets like Ebola or SARS.
So, pending either some luck or eighteen months of medical trials, herd immunity is an entirely sensible goal. The government’s broad approach was correct.
What hasn’t gone so well is the explanation and the PR (as has been very evident from the discussion here, despite our great capacity for independent thought and discussion).
People have heard about herd immunity and taken away that we’re all supposed to get ill and the lucky (majority) will live on to protect our old folks. That message isn’t going down as well as the government had hoped. Not enough emphasis was given to the measures that were always needed to avoid the epidemic getting out of hand,
People want to feel in control of events, and if the government isn’t promising to magic away the threat, will retreat to otherwise irrational behaviour like buying yet more toilet roll.
Herd immunity requires a 60-70% infection rate, about 40 million cases in UK. Whether 0.5% or 5% rate that is major mortality.
At the lower end of your range, and spread over say a year to eighteen months, that is within an order of magnitude of the already expected death rate. Severe, for sure, but not catastrophic (given the overlap in cases between the underlying rate and the Corona cases). We are still a long way from seeing much prospect of Eadric’s two million dead Britons.
Sorry to sound repetitively stupid, but so what? Genetic records from 12,000 people tell us nothing about whether anyone has covid 19, surely?
12,000 so far. They will screen the entire database.
The initial results suggested that perhaps 1% have a natural immunity. If you can isolate them (in the technical not physical sense) then perhaps there are some leads that will be useful to understanding the disease.
That's why the DECODE database is so powerful. It combines genetic samples from the entire population with the saga histories - the Icelandic people know the descent of every individual from the 10th century to today. That has allowed them to make breakthroughs in - for example - genetic predisposition to breast cancer.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
Putting aside the 2 pre-fab ones, those 14 hospitals, aren't hospitals, they are stadiums, conference centres and university venues.
They are places that can provide critical support for thousands of people.....
We have to hope that China gets back to business quickly...and as our health systems collapse- they can help us like they are currently doing in Italy....
I have more faith in that quite frankly than our current capacity of about 1000 available ICU beds and some idiots twittering on about herds
You have more faith in the Chinese government to help the UK than the UK government?
The Chinese are now sending over doctors and medical supplies to Italy....
I think when we are facing meltdown we will take any help we can. We helped prop up the vile Stalin for obvious reasons....
Sorry to sound repetitively stupid, but so what? Genetic records from 12,000 people tell us nothing about whether anyone has covid 19, surely?
12,000 so far. They will screen the entire database.
The initial results suggested that perhaps 1% have a natural immunity. If you can isolate them (in the technical not physical sense) then perhaps there are some leads that will be useful to understanding the disease.
That's why the DECODE database is so powerful. It combines genetic samples from the entire population with the saga histories - the Icelandic people know the descent of every individual from the 10th century to today. That has allowed them to make breakthroughs in - for example - genetic predisposition to breast cancer.
And to stop first cousins hooking up accidentally :-)
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if historians of the future conclude that this crisis was the moment when China eclipsed the US as the world’s principal power. Whether we will read any such books in our lifetime is another matter.
It depends how the US react. Putting aside Orange man, there is obviously clear underlying structural problems in the US. We all know that, and why Trump got in in the first place and why Sanders has such a following.
They could, as they have done in the past, bounce back stronger and better than ever before, or as you say this could be the moment that China shows it is now the top dog.
The story that they are trying to use their financial muscle power to commandeer first use of the vaccine currently being trialled in Germany tells you a lot about the US.
If Boris had been in charge during WWII, I fairly sure the tw@tterati would be cheering on Hitler, just to see his nose rubbed in it.
You have a point there, but to a large extent Johnson has brought this on himself by the way he has conducted himself over time.At this time of crisis, we need someone who can be trusted across the political divide.Johnson does not have - nor does he deserve - the goodwill needed for that.
That is not wrong, but Johnson has instinctively played a relatively safe game which has played out well even to Boris non believers like me. Corbyn by contrast would have panicked and shut everything down without weighing up the longer term financial implications. Johnson may well feel the need to panic later, but for the moment at least the steady as she goes action is appreciated.
My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!
Initial results from Icelandic genetic screening indicate that around one percent of the population has the crown virus that causes COVID-19 disease. This was confirmed by Thorolfur Guðnason in a conversation with a news agency today. Kári Stefánsson, CEO of Icelandic Genetic Research, says in a conversation with the news agency that there is almost one percent. Screening of Icelandic genetic analysis began on Thursday in the Tower at Smáratorg in Kopavogur and it was proposed to take high in a thousand samples a day. Twelve thousand people had screened for the virus on Saturday morning.
Potential evidence of an iceberg effect?
They have basically their whole population DNA on record don't they?
I am genuinely failing to understand why that has any bearing on testing them for this virus.
When he says 12,000 people he means “genetic records from 12,000 people”
Sorry to sound repetitively stupid, but so what? Genetic records from 12,000 people tell us nothing about whether anyone has covid 19, surely?
Except the database has got nothing to do with it. The article says they were testing people for coronavirus over the weekend.
Screening of Icelandic genetic analysis began on Thursday in the Tower at Smáratorg in Kopavogur and it was proposed to take high in a thousand samples a day. Twelve thousand people had screened for the virus on Saturday morning.
From your post. I didn't read the article in the original, but this refers to screening of the genetic database (that's my interpretation) rather than taking new samples
Be interesting if Scottish Government take a different tack from Westminster. SCOTLAND is not planning on isolating over-70s over coronavirus fears, the country's Health Secretary has said, amid criticism of the UK Government's communication and strategy.
The UK's Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced that elderly people are likely to be asked to self-isolate for up to four months - news that emerged from anonymous briefings.
However, Scottish Health Secretary Jeane Freeman has said the Scottish Government were not planning on isolating the elderly but would instead be "asking them to reduce social contact".
Hancock described the plans for over-70s to be forced to stay at home as a "very big ask", but said it is a measure for their own "self-protection".
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if historians of the future conclude that this crisis was the moment when China eclipsed the US as the world’s principal power. Whether we will read any such books in our lifetime is another matter.
It depends how the US react. Putting aside Orange man, there is obviously clear underlying structural problems in the US. We all know that, and why Trump got in in the first place and why Sanders has such a following.
They could, as they have done in the past, bounce back stronger and better than ever before, or as you say this could be the moment that China shows it is now the top dog.
The story that they are trying to use their financial muscle power to commandeer first use of the vaccine currently being trialled in Germany tells you a lot about the US.
This could be the shock wave that makes the US wake up and perhaps elect people who understand the problems and have workable solutions.
Although not 100% sold on Yang's UBI, he was the one who actually was talking about one huge issue that is facing the US economy. Instead all the leading candidates are for the most part ignoring it. Bernie just wants more union jobs at wages that will just increase the rate of automation, Biden appears to wants to have punch ups with all the union workers and Trump well...
If Boris had been in charge during WWII, I fairly sure the tw@tterati would be cheering on Hitler, just to see his nose rubbed in it.
You have a point there, but to a large extent Johnson has brought this on himself by the way he has conducted himself over time.At this time of crisis, we need someone who can be trusted across the political divide.Johnson does not have - nor does he deserve - the goodwill needed for that.
That is not wrong, but Johnson has instinctively played a relatively safe game which has played out well even to Boris non believers like me. Corbyn by contrast would have panicked and shut everything down without weighing up the longer term financial implications. Johnson may well feel the need to panic later, but for the moment at least the steady as she goes action is appreciated.
My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!
Presumably Dom's superforecasters knew this was going to happen anyway. Probably why they went for a December election.
If Boris had been in charge during WWII, I fairly sure the tw@tterati would be cheering on Hitler, just to see his nose rubbed in it.
You have a point there, but to a large extent Johnson has brought this on himself by the way he has conducted himself over time.At this time of crisis, we need someone who can be trusted across the political divide.Johnson does not have - nor does he deserve - the goodwill needed for that.
That is not wrong, but Johnson has instinctively played a relatively safe game which has played out well even to Boris non believers like me. Corbyn by contrast would have panicked and shut everything down without weighing up the longer term financial implications. Johnson may well feel the need to panic later, but for the moment at least the steady as she goes action is appreciated.
My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!
Many would feel far more comfortable with Jeremy Hunt in charge. Far more goodwill would be forthcoming to him.
Braemar update: still sitting off the Bahamas, trying to negotiate disembarkation for some of its passengers. Meanwhile drinks on the ship are now free.
Braemar update: still sitting off the Bahamas, trying to negotiate disembarkation for some of its passengers. Meanwhile drinks on the ship are now free.
Ok back from the front line of Tescos. Not quite all quiet on the western aisles front but not too far from normal. Meat packs for freezers had taken a hammering as had some tinned products but plenty bread, milk, fruit etc. I fear once again our social media in particular are making a crisis out of a drama.
I fear the same is happening with government policy. Such is the voracious need for product of the 24 hour media and twittersphere nothing the government could ever do would come close to meeting it. So things are inferred, twisted, sometimes plain made up and then complaints are made that there are inconsistencies of approach.
Personally, I am finding those seeking to make political points often generated by a quite weird and obsessive personal hatred of a man 99% have never met particularly trying. I really don't think this is the time for that sort of nonsense.
Ok back from the front line of Tescos. Not quite all quiet on the western aisles front but not too far from normal. Meat packs for freezers had taken a hammering as had some tinned products but plenty bread, milk, fruit etc. I fear once again our social media in particular are making a crisis out of a drama.
I fear the same is happening with government policy. Such is the voracious need for product of the 24 hour media and twittersphere nothing the government could ever do would come close to meeting it. So things are inferred, twisted, sometimes plain made up and then complaints are made that there are inconsistencies of approach.
Personally, I am finding those seeking to make political points often generated by a quite weird and obsessive personal hatred of a man 99% have never met particularly trying. I really don't think this is the time for that sort of nonsense.
For balance, I have met him, several times, and don’t like him much. But so far he’s doing OK. This crisis has at least forced him to grow up and face his responsibilities without trying to deflect accountability using schoolboy humour.
Do we want them to do the work or prepare for press conferences?
That's the point. They need to do both.
The greatest strategy in the World is going to fail if they don't bring the public with them, and right now they are fucking that up.
Your evidence for that is ?
Let me guess ...
... a tweet.
Everyone is now clamouring for stronger measures. A few days ago the response would have been "fuck that, it's just like getting a cold". They're playing games with our heads. Personally I'd like a last parkrun on Saturday before the ban hammer comes down.
Before the lockdown I am doing two things whilst I still can 1. Eat, drink and be merry 2. Running 5k a day in the gym to start the day
If you are big into working out, probably worth ordering some kit you can continue to do things at home. Kettlebell is very good.
Yes, I need that advice! thankyou. I really miss the gym, it kept me sane and healthy
Do we want them to do the work or prepare for press conferences?
That's the point. They need to do both.
The greatest strategy in the World is going to fail if they don't bring the public with them, and right now they are fucking that up.
Your evidence for that is ?
Let me guess ...
... a tweet.
Everyone is now clamouring for stronger measures. A few days ago the response would have been "fuck that, it's just like getting a cold". They're playing games with our heads. Personally I'd like a last parkrun on Saturday before the ban hammer comes down.
Before the lockdown I am doing two things whilst I still can 1. Eat, drink and be merry 2. Running 5k a day in the gym to start the day
If you are big into working out, probably worth ordering some kit you can continue to do things at home. Kettlebell is very good.
Yes, I need that advice! thankyou. I really miss the gym, it kept me sane and healthy
Anything else I could order in?
Clearly it’s been some time since you were in the gym, then
Do we want them to do the work or prepare for press conferences?
That's the point. They need to do both.
The greatest strategy in the World is going to fail if they don't bring the public with them, and right now they are fucking that up.
Your evidence for that is ?
Let me guess ...
... a tweet.
Everyone is now clamouring for stronger measures. A few days ago the response would have been "fuck that, it's just like getting a cold". They're playing games with our heads. Personally I'd like a last parkrun on Saturday before the ban hammer comes down.
Before the lockdown I am doing two things whilst I still can 1. Eat, drink and be merry 2. Running 5k a day in the gym to start the day
If you are big into working out, probably worth ordering some kit you can continue to do things at home. Kettlebell is very good.
Yes, I need that advice! thankyou. I really miss the gym, it kept me sane and healthy
Anything else I could order in?
I would have a look round YouTube, there are loads of home / garden workouts. See which you think you can do and order whatever kit they use, but normally its not much more than couple of dumb-bells, a mat and a kettle-bell.
You can really have a hard HIIT style workout with just body-weight exercises. I like the kettlebell you can then combine the HIIT body-weight stuff with some explosive weight-lifting motions.
China have been sending resources to Italy- doctors, masks, respirators......
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
It caused the bloody thing in the first place with its barbaric live meat markets and other weird eating habits, its failure to respond when the disease first manifested itself and its attacks on those brave doctors who raised the issue. And now its dishonesty about how the virus arose - with its bizarre claims that this was caused by the US.
It has a brass neck if it now tries to claim credit for helping to resolve a problem it created.
If Boris had been in charge during WWII, I fairly sure the tw@tterati would be cheering on Hitler, just to see his nose rubbed in it.
You have a point there, but to a large extent Johnson has brought this on himself by the way he has conducted himself over time.At this time of crisis, we need someone who can be trusted across the political divide.Johnson does not have - nor does he deserve - the goodwill needed for that.
That is not wrong, but Johnson has instinctively played a relatively safe game which has played out well even to Boris non believers like me. Corbyn by contrast would have panicked and shut everything down without weighing up the longer term financial implications. Johnson may well feel the need to panic later, but for the moment at least the steady as she goes action is appreciated.
My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!
Many would feel far more comfortable with Jeremy Hunt in charge. Far more goodwill would be forthcoming to him.
I totally agree, however Hunt seems to be far keener than Johnson to close the UK down. It may turn out to be a better call than the one Boris has made. At the moment at least Boris' strategy seems unusually sensible.
Comments
I expect my 85 year old neighbour will continue to walk his dog around his fields. He is at 0.00000% additional risk in doing so.
My own workload seems to be on an upward trend...
If the virus rebounds back into China which it will do- it has the capability to shut it down quickly.....it has 14 new hospitals that are largely empty
China comes through this crisis as the world's saviour as it helps prop up the failing health systems of the west.....
The idea wasn't that they were even actual hospitals as such, they were venues to use as part of the "funnel system" and keep infected people away from the public at large, perform basic treatments and observations.
For now, I am giving up second guessing government policy, as it’s become very clear overnight that it is a work in progress rather than a settled strategy.
I’ll be very happy if policy is communicated clearly to everyone, even if I disagree with it.
(The decision to release the modelling they’ve been doing is a good one.)
Off for a walk in the fresh air.
We have to hope that China gets back to business quickly...and as our health systems collapse- they can help us like they are currently doing in Italy....
I have more faith in that quite frankly than our current capacity of about 1000 available ICU beds and some idiots twittering on about herds
These ones in stadiums etc, where more about keeping people away from the public and checking they weren't getting worse. It was an additional way of isolating those who were infected. They were no more than giant dormitories, with food provided and some medical staff on hand to keep an eye on people. It wasn't designed to deal with the critically ill.
If they did they had to go to proper medical facilities plus the 2 prefab ones.
I think it is the quick isolation of symptomatic patients that is now a bit surplus.
Thus a huge number of people in these hospitals were sick, but not requiring ICU. In the west, these are the people we are trusting to self isolate and take their own basic flu medication.
Though my party leader tips are invariably wrong!
Arrhhh the days of laughing at the Crystal Methodist.....
That's true- obviously they were not ICU beds....but their health system eventually withstood the crisis, and will probably do so again when it rebounds.....
I think Foxes idea about Campus student accommodation being requisitioned sounds good to isolate and treat- especially those places like UEA which are attached pretty much to a hospital.....
No issue with sticking people in uni halls. That is what they did with the first lot they brought back from China (obviously for different reasons). In most modern uni halls, they are en-suite and a very high standard.
So, pending either some luck or eighteen months of medical trials, herd immunity is an entirely sensible goal. The government’s broad approach was correct.
What hasn’t gone so well is the explanation and the PR (as has been very evident from the discussion here, despite our great capacity for independent thought and discussion).
People have heard about herd immunity and taken away that we’re all supposed to get ill and the lucky (majority) will live on to protect our old folks. That message isn’t going down as well as the government had hoped. Not enough emphasis was given to the measures that were always needed to avoid the epidemic getting out of hand,
People want to feel in control of events, and if the government isn’t promising to magic away the threat, will retreat to otherwise irrational behaviour like buying yet more toilet roll.
HMG perhaps trying to be more open about it, but should avoid off the record briefings to Peston and exclusive articles for their pet media organs.
The BBC also needs to wake the f up.
No need to invite Farage, the leader of Sinn Fein, and Ash Sarkar for an alternative POV.
They have massive capacity on a single large campus, which isn't far from Coventry and Birmingham if you need to transfer people up the chain.
If we're all to be expected to move towards more plant-based diets, give up petrol-engined cars and gas-fired central heating, and other such significant lifestyle changes in the coming years then I'm sure they can manage without eating pangolins.
The supply chain in the UK is incredibly exposed as we all know but the Government has done nothing to secure it so far. My company which is a core part of the NHS supply chain (e.g. we can rapidly sterilize a respirator after use so it can be given to another patient) has so far had no contact with PHE although the local Scots have been more proactive. Our Government just does not know how to get out of its fancy offices and hit the road to get things moving at the sharp end.
The lock down will come on Monday not because the government wants to but because it is being forced to by international and domestic pressure. We have it appears so far by luck avoided a hot spot in the UK and this means we may well be able to avoid one saving the bacon of the government.
Will the government learn the lessons from this event. One can only hope. It will need to get a lot better quickly so we can exit the lock down without a resurgence.
The differential death rates around the world are merely a reflection of how well equipped the respective health systems are coping....you can keep 80 year old plusses alive with co-morbidity on ICU units for weeks
If every health system collapses in the west the death rates will all pretty much be the same
What I am, however, is someone who has a condition that requires medication to make sure that I am all of those things. All around you there will be people with hypertension, or diabetics, or those with cardiovascular problems. Who are those being reported from Italy and such who are battling this virus in their thirties, forties, fifties, even younger than that? People that I’ve just mentioned, the high risk groups.
Those who are elderly and infirm do have a real problem. The stark truth is that they are more likely to be denied treatment as and when choosing who to treat becomes necessary. Keeping the younger ones out of ICU who are putting up a hell of a fight over a period of weeks would be to their benefit as well.
The point he was trying to highlight was the remaining 20% are extremely ill bordering right on the verge of requiring hospitalization to obviously those who are critical.
They could, as they have done in the past, bounce back stronger and better than ever before, or as you say this could be the moment that China shows it is now the top dog.
I expect that ICU triage there also favours the younger, more likely to respond age groups.
Cleaners, porters and catering staff at Lewisham Hospital walked out today after not being paid or given protective clothing - in a hospital that has had confirmed cases of coronavirus. https://www.counterfire.org/news/20961-lewisham-hospital-workers-walk-out-and-demand-to-be-paid-and-protected
The initial results suggested that perhaps 1% have a natural immunity. If you can isolate them (in the technical not physical sense) then perhaps there are some leads that will be useful to understanding the disease.
That's why the DECODE database is so powerful. It combines genetic samples from the entire population with the saga histories - the Icelandic people know the descent of every individual from the 10th century to today. That has allowed them to make breakthroughs in - for example - genetic predisposition to breast cancer.
I think when we are facing meltdown we will take any help we can. We helped prop up the vile Stalin for obvious reasons....
My only criticism of Johnson so far is his 'I have to level with you...' statement which I felt was unnecessary classic political Dom. Dom apparently has an interest in epidemiology according to the FT, so he is an expert!
From your post. I didn't read the article in the original, but this refers to screening of the genetic database (that's my interpretation) rather than taking new samples
SCOTLAND is not planning on isolating over-70s over coronavirus fears, the country's Health Secretary has said, amid criticism of the UK Government's communication and strategy.
The UK's Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced that elderly people are likely to be asked to self-isolate for up to four months - news that emerged from anonymous briefings.
However, Scottish Health Secretary Jeane Freeman has said the Scottish Government were not planning on isolating the elderly but would instead be "asking them to reduce social contact".
Hancock described the plans for over-70s to be forced to stay at home as a "very big ask", but said it is a measure for their own "self-protection".
Although not 100% sold on Yang's UBI, he was the one who actually was talking about one huge issue that is facing the US economy. Instead all the leading candidates are for the most part ignoring it. Bernie just wants more union jobs at wages that will just increase the rate of automation, Biden appears to wants to have punch ups with all the union workers and Trump well...
I fear the same is happening with government policy. Such is the voracious need for product of the 24 hour media and twittersphere nothing the government could ever do would come close to meeting it. So things are inferred, twisted, sometimes plain made up and then complaints are made that there are inconsistencies of approach.
Personally, I am finding those seeking to make political points often generated by a quite weird and obsessive personal hatred of a man 99% have never met particularly trying. I really don't think this is the time for that sort of nonsense.
You can really have a hard HIIT style workout with just body-weight exercises. I like the kettlebell you can then combine the HIIT body-weight stuff with some explosive weight-lifting motions.
It has a brass neck if it now tries to claim credit for helping to resolve a problem it created.