Can I work from home yet or will I still need to commute for three hours a day on public transport to do the same job I could do at home?
I bet 95% plus can`t work from home! It`s bollox as Malc would say.
I know, I'm fortunate my job involves tapping away at a keyboard and thinking mainly.
Can I do that at home or will I have to don my predator outfit next week to get to work just because the government can't provide nuanced guidance?
Think of all the factory workers, cleaners and shelf stackers. They can`t work at home FFS. And people like that won`t have savings. People who CAN work from home mostly have well remunerated jobs anyway. The lockdown thing is for the birds. We`ve got to live with this thing until a vaccine is found - and I`ve thought that from day one.
Yes, but reducing the numbers by having those who can work at home makes sense. It need not be all or nothing in this regard.
Yes, of course, but that not what Italy`s decree requires.
May not be as high as 95% but I don`t beliebve that survey - what do they mean by flexible working? They don`t mean working from home all the time in most cases, I`m sure. My wife was offered flexible working once, it involved having some control over her start and end times and the ability to work from home one day per week.
You are way off. About 14% of the workforce were already working at home before the virus.
Where in that link does it say 95% could work from home?
4.55 million people work in retail and hospitality 1.9 million people work in healthcare
Between those 2 industries we're talking 20% of the UK's workforce. So you're suggesting that the equivalent of 100% of every other industry (manufactoring, agriculture etc included) and 75% of those can all be done from home? No face to face interactions?
Huge call by the government today. It’s evidently based on medical advice but you can easily see how it could go horribly wrong.
The Prime Minister has been brave.
The opposite. He is wholly deferring to the experts. Anything goes wrong be has rock solid back up.
He has nonetheless played a good game today.
I agree. He's been brave. An immediate lockdown risks kicking the can down the road, a further spike, exhaustion, etc. The government had two options to pick from and none good.
However, I think an initial lockdown (to calm everyone down), then respite, then *another* lockdown would have been better, but I can see the logic of the government's plan.
The bigger problem will be to hold his nerve when people start dying Italian-style. People like Cummings might be able to operate ultra-logically, with an eye on the longer term, but many of the population can't/won't...
Interesting insight from the Netherlands (on the BBC live blog):
"Flanked by the health minister, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced new measures designed to limit the spread of the virus:
- A ban on gatherings of more than 100 people - Colleges and universities told to offer students online tutorials (but primary and secondary schools will remain open) - People with low immunity and the elderly advised to isolate themselves - People who have coronavirus symptoms – cough plus fever - told to stay at home"
Sounds (bar the ban on gatherings, which will likely take place here next week) very similar to what is being imposed here.
Yes - and the Dutch have also made a big point of not closing schools. This hasn't been popular amongst the Twitterati, but seems to be taking a lead from the same modelling.
Hunt making some good point on Ch4 news. He doesn't understand why we haven't really ramped home message of social distancing for the old, why we still have non-essential visits to old people's homes etc.
Like me he is doesn't quite believe that oldies can't stick out 3-4 months really keeping away from everybody as best as possible and that they will tire of this.
The British approach is probably what you'd expect if you'd been reading textbooks like Geert Hofstede's "Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind". (He sadly died a few weeks ago at the age of 91).
Interesting insight from the Netherlands (on the BBC live blog):
"Flanked by the health minister, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced new measures designed to limit the spread of the virus:
- A ban on gatherings of more than 100 people - Colleges and universities told to offer students online tutorials (but primary and secondary schools will remain open) - People with low immunity and the elderly advised to isolate themselves - People who have coronavirus symptoms – cough plus fever - told to stay at home"
Sounds (bar the ban on gatherings, which will likely take place here next week) very similar to what is being imposed here.
100 people is a ridiculously low bar. It basically means shutting down most economic and social activity in the country. Or is equivalent to (so if you don't shut down everything then you are just being selective for no obvious gains).
All classes at my university are going online only from Monday.
Coincidence or coordinated closures in France Spain etc . Coincidence I think
Will happen here too of course, but as the government feel we are behind Spain / France by one or two weeks, they want to wait a little longer before doing this to maximise impact I think.
If they can postpone closing schools for just a fortnight without medical impact, it will cut the educational impact by around 80% especially for GCSE and A-level. I have one class that has not finished the exam course yet, but my subjects are the only ones that are even close to finishing.
Once the content is finished an extended Easter holiday becomes a lot more manageable.
Where in that link does it say 95% could work from home?
4.55 million people work in retail and hospitality 1.9 million people work in healthcare
Between those 2 industries we're talking 20% of the UK's workforce. So you're suggesting that the equivalent of 100% of every other industry (manufactoring, agriculture etc included) and 75% of those can all be done from home? No face to face interactions?
Eh? He said that 95% plus CAN’T work from home.
I said the percentage that cannot is much lower, which it is.
If I heard correctly, the worse case scenario is 80% get it, with an overall mortality rate of 1%.
Yes, that's what I heard. The important bit of the message today, though expressed delicately, is that in moving from 'contain' to 'delay' it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point; there is no purpose is avoiding transmission in itself since we are going to get it sometime, only in spreading it out over the longest possible time. hence the rationale of not closing schools, not closing down society etc. That's what you do if you want it to go away altogether. That attempt has been deemed to fail.
In truth various intelligent and mature systems in the western world are trying slightly different things. Personally I sympathise with our government/ expert approach; but it is a gigantic experiment. Those still alive at the end will have learned a lot about what works.
1% of 80% of the population of UK is 520,000. There are about 616,000 UK deaths in a normal year. We shall soon notice what is going on. Understandably none of the political or medical spokespeople I have heard are giving these sorts of figures in this sort of form.
"Londoners looking to pick up a hard-earned £3,507 ($4,588) will have an excellent opportunity to do so, and the only catch is that they'll have to get sick and maybe (but probably not) die.
Those desperate enough for that type of cash can volunteer themselves to be human guinea pigs for the Queen Mary BioEnterprises Innovation Centre in London, as two dozen volunteers are being sought to be injected with the coronavirus and then take part in a flu camp.
The ultimate goal is for a company called hVIVO to try and find a vaccine for the disease which has, thus far, killed nearly 4,000 people worldwide. "
Absolute nonsense. They are not going to be injected with "the coronavirus." They are going to be infected with two different coronaviruses, which just cause variants of the common cold.
If someone offered me that to have the Coronavirus now, surrounded by the guarantee of observation, care and backup that they’d have to offer anyone taking part in a medical trial, knowing that assuming I recover I can sit through the rest of this crisis with immunity, and go travel the deserted tourist hotspots of Europe, I’d be very tempted.
Interesting insight from the Netherlands (on the BBC live blog):
"Flanked by the health minister, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced new measures designed to limit the spread of the virus:
- A ban on gatherings of more than 100 people - Colleges and universities told to offer students online tutorials (but primary and secondary schools will remain open) - People with low immunity and the elderly advised to isolate themselves - People who have coronavirus symptoms – cough plus fever - told to stay at home"
Sounds (bar the ban on gatherings, which will likely take place here next week) very similar to what is being imposed here.
100 people is a ridiculously low bar. It basically means shutting down most economic and social activity in the country. Or is equivalent to (so if you don't shut down everything then you are just being selective for no obvious gains).
What counts as a gathering? 100 people spread across a hotel? 100 people in a restaurant? Id have thought 40 people in a 50sq m restaurant is worse than 100 in a 200sq m restaurant.
All classes at my university are going online only from Monday.
Coincidence or coordinated closures in France Spain etc . Coincidence I think
Will happen here too of course, but as the government feel we are behind Spain / France by one or two weeks, they want to wait a little longer before doing this to maximise impact I think.
If they can postpone closing schools for just a fortnight without medical impact, it will cut the educational impact by around 80% especially for GCSE and A-level. I have one class that has not finished the exam course yet, but my subjects are the only ones that are even close to finishing.
Once the content is finished an extended Easter holiday becomes a lot more manageable.
Of course it would be possible to keep schools open on a limited basis - ie. restricted to those facing important exams.
Where in that link does it say 95% could work from home?
4.55 million people work in retail and hospitality 1.9 million people work in healthcare
Between those 2 industries we're talking 20% of the UK's workforce. So you're suggesting that the equivalent of 100% of every other industry (manufactoring, agriculture etc included) and 75% of those can all be done from home? No face to face interactions?
Eh? He said that 95% plus CAN’T work from home.
I said the percentage that cannot is much lower, which it is.
You have muddled the logic.
You getting a bit hung up on 95%. I have no idea what the figure is - it was a number I plucked out my arse.
Let`s say that 50% can`t work from home (to keep you happy) - my point still stands. These people are proper fucked if the government passes a law which makes them stay at home.
The Dow is currently trading at July 2017 levels, the Nasdaq at June 2019 Levels, the S&P at December 2018 Levels. Conversely, the FTSE is trading at May 2012 Levels, DAX at February 2016 Levels, the CAC 40 Feb 2016 Levels and the FTSE MIB at June 2013 Levels.
It's clear who the market's confidence is best placed to see this through.
All classes at my university are going online only from Monday.
Coincidence or coordinated closures in France Spain etc . Coincidence I think
Will happen here too of course, but as the government feel we are behind Spain / France by one or two weeks, they want to wait a little longer before doing this to maximise impact I think.
If they can postpone closing schools for just a fortnight without medical impact, it will cut the educational impact by around 80% especially for GCSE and A-level. I have one class that has not finished the exam course yet, but my subjects are the only ones that are even close to finishing.
Once the content is finished an extended Easter holiday becomes a lot more manageable.
Of course it would be possible to keep schools open on a limited basis - ie. restricted to those facing important exams.
Hunt in his extremely impressive interview on Ch4 news just made this point. We should be looking running things like schools in a skeleton manner with only the kids of essential workers attend.
I wonder if Govt decisions on the football season are not totally independent on Liverpool potentially winning the league on Monday, or shortly afterwards. Given that when it happens Liverpool city centre will almost certainly see hundreds of thousands on the streets in the aftermath. Which would rather undermine the perceived benefits of holding the games behind closed doors.
Can I work from home yet or will I still need to commute for three hours a day on public transport to do the same job I could do at home?
I bet 95% plus can`t work from home! It`s bollox as Malc would say.
I know, I'm fortunate my job involves tapping away at a keyboard and thinking mainly.
Can I do that at home or will I have to don my predator outfit next week to get to work just because the government can't provide nuanced guidance?
Start coughing at work. They'll send you home before you make it to lunchtime. Especially if you really CAN work just as effectively from there.
A lot of people will end up working at home, and preferring it. The amount of written work I do in my job would simply not get done were I in the office. Way too many distractions and impossible to concentrate for long periods. A mix is best. I do 1 day office 4 at home. But 2 office 3 at home would probably be my ideal, but only because I miss the socialising.
The Dow is currently trading at July 2017 levels, the Nasdaq at June 2019 Levels, the S&P at December 2018 Levels. Conversely, the FTSE is trading at May 2012 Levels, DAX at February 2016 Levels, the CAC 40 Feb 2016 Levels and the FTSE MIB at June 2013 Levels.
It's clear who the market's confidence is best placed to see this through.
It turns out that the markets love the wool being pulled over their eyes.
The Dow is currently trading at July 2017 levels, the Nasdaq at June 2019 Levels, the S&P at December 2018 Levels. Conversely, the FTSE is trading at May 2012 Levels, DAX at February 2016 Levels, the CAC 40 Feb 2016 Levels and the FTSE MIB at June 2013 Levels.
It's clear who the market's confidence is best placed to see this through.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
The Dow is currently trading at July 2017 levels, the Nasdaq at June 2019 Levels, the S&P at December 2018 Levels. Conversely, the FTSE is trading at May 2012 Levels, DAX at February 2016 Levels, the CAC 40 Feb 2016 Levels and the FTSE MIB at June 2013 Levels.
It's clear who the market's confidence is best placed to see this through.
Dividends. Most of the FTSE returns comes through dividends, in the US most comes from share price growth. Indices numbers are not comparable over a number of years because of this difference.
Where in that link does it say 95% could work from home?
4.55 million people work in retail and hospitality 1.9 million people work in healthcare
Between those 2 industries we're talking 20% of the UK's workforce. So you're suggesting that the equivalent of 100% of every other industry (manufactoring, agriculture etc included) and 75% of those can all be done from home? No face to face interactions?
Eh? He said that 95% plus CAN’T work from home.
I said the percentage that cannot is much lower, which it is.
You have muddled the logic.
You getting a bit hung up on 95%. I have no idea what the figure is - it was a number I plucked out my arse.
Let`s say that 50% can`t work from home (to keep you happy) - my point still stands. These people are proper fucked if the government passes a law which makes them stay at home.
I agree with that. But the government could simply say, employers should encourage homeworking to those who have the facility to work at home.
Can I work from home yet or will I still need to commute for three hours a day on public transport to do the same job I could do at home?
I bet 95% plus can`t work from home! It`s bollox as Malc would say.
I know, I'm fortunate my job involves tapping away at a keyboard and thinking mainly.
Can I do that at home or will I have to don my predator outfit next week to get to work just because the government can't provide nuanced guidance?
Start coughing at work. They'll send you home before you make it to lunchtime. Especially if you really CAN work just as effectively from there.
A lot of people will end up working at home, and preferring it. The amount of written work I do in my job would simply not get done were I in the office. Way too many distractions and impossible to concentrate for long periods. A mix is best. I do 1 day office 4 at home. But 2 office 3 at home would probably be my ideal, but only because I miss the socialising.
I think that's about right for me, too. I need to learn to be more productive at home in my office.
Wonder if the massive boost in public spending will blunt labs attacks, even with a new leader.
I wonder how much communication there is between Govt and the Opposition at the moment. And whether that will change when (presumably) Starmer wins and is able to appoint some sensible people to his front bench.
Where in that link does it say 95% could work from home?
4.55 million people work in retail and hospitality 1.9 million people work in healthcare
Between those 2 industries we're talking 20% of the UK's workforce. So you're suggesting that the equivalent of 100% of every other industry (manufactoring, agriculture etc included) and 75% of those can all be done from home? No face to face interactions?
Eh? He said that 95% plus CAN’T work from home.
I said the percentage that cannot is much lower, which it is.
You have muddled the logic.
You getting a bit hung up on 95%. I have no idea what the figure is - it was a number I plucked out my arse.
Let`s say that 50% can`t work from home (to keep you happy) - my point still stands. These people are proper fucked if the government passes a law which makes them stay at home.
Hong Kong gave 1k to every resident when it went into lockdown. Hope we do something like that to alleviate the situation when the time comes. The 3k small business grant suggests it is not impossible.
"Londoners looking to pick up a hard-earned £3,507 ($4,588) will have an excellent opportunity to do so, and the only catch is that they'll have to get sick and maybe (but probably not) die.
Those desperate enough for that type of cash can volunteer themselves to be human guinea pigs for the Queen Mary BioEnterprises Innovation Centre in London, as two dozen volunteers are being sought to be injected with the coronavirus and then take part in a flu camp.
The ultimate goal is for a company called hVIVO to try and find a vaccine for the disease which has, thus far, killed nearly 4,000 people worldwide. "
Absolute nonsense. They are not going to be injected with "the coronavirus." They are going to be infected with two different coronaviruses, which just cause variants of the common cold.
If someone offered me that to have the Coronavirus now, surrounded by the guarantee of observation, care and backup that they’d have to offer anyone taking part in a medical trial, knowing that assuming I recover I can sit through the rest of this crisis with immunity, and go travel the deserted tourist hotspots of Europe, I’d be very tempted.
Well, possibly. But the fact remains that the offer here is just to be infected with the common cold.
The Dow is currently trading at July 2017 levels, the Nasdaq at June 2019 Levels, the S&P at December 2018 Levels. Conversely, the FTSE is trading at May 2012 Levels, DAX at February 2016 Levels, the CAC 40 Feb 2016 Levels and the FTSE MIB at June 2013 Levels.
It's clear who the market's confidence is best placed to see this through.
That only suggests where historically good work has been done. There are some dividend adjustments etc too. It's not a traded market but 5yr forward FTSE would be interesting. (Likely to be well sub where we are now just because of the dividends)
We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
I think Johnson's first words were "this is not flu".
Ah, I'm not referring to the government, I'm referring to the mass of people who are dismissing the whole thing as being 'hyped'. Government by the slowest to catch on. It's not exactly Churchillian is it?
In your original comment you were talking about who we were being ruled by. Aren't we ruled by the government?
We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
I think Johnson's first words were "this is not flu".
Ah, I'm not referring to the government, I'm referring to the mass of people who are dismissing the whole thing as being 'hyped'. Government by the slowest to catch on. It's not exactly Churchillian is it?
In your original comment you were talking about who we were being ruled by. Aren't we ruled by the government?
Erm I think Elizabeth Windsor wants a word...
She might do - but it won’t the simple fact that a powerless figurehead doesn’t rule over me or anyone else.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
One could have predicted in advance that Anglo-Saxon countries would be less likely to order a total close-down of society, just from sociological studies. Interesting.
Hunt with the sort of creative thinking that seems to be missing from things at the moment, Hopefully he has some sort of inside info on the next steps.
If I heard correctly, the worse case scenario is 80% get it, with an overall mortality rate of 1%.
Yes, that's what I heard. The important bit of the message today, though expressed delicately, is that in moving from 'contain' to 'delay' it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point; there is no purpose is avoiding transmission in itself since we are going to get it sometime, only in spreading it out over the longest possible time. hence the rationale of not closing schools, not closing down society etc. That's what you do if you want it to go away altogether. That attempt has been deemed to fail.
In truth various intelligent and mature systems in the western world are trying slightly different things. Personally I sympathise with our government/ expert approach; but it is a gigantic experiment. Those still alive at the end will have learned a lot about what works.
1% of 80% of the population of UK is 520,000. There are about 616,000 UK deaths in a normal year. We shall soon notice what is going on. Understandably none of the political or medical spokespeople I have heard are giving these sorts of figures in this sort of form.
The whole point is that the percentage of the population that gets infected is entirely dependent on the transmission rate, which is entirely dependent on the measures that are taken.
To say that it's inevitable that 80% - or any other percentage - are magically going to be infected is sheer scientific illiteracy. To say nothing of the fact that the 80% number is based on a transmission rate that looks like double the estimate of the WHO-China working group.
It's sad that people seem willing to swallow this guff so uncritically.
Wonder if the massive boost in public spending will blunt labs attacks, even with a new leader.
I wonder how much communication there is between Govt and the Opposition at the moment. And whether that will change when (presumably) Starmer wins and is able to appoint some sensible people to his front bench.
Im all for cross party working, especially in a time of crisis, and voted anti-Tory at the election but do I want input from Burgon, Abbott or Butler, not really. Looking forward to a proper opposition.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
Like many now, I’m making my own decisions and that’s going to include demands over who I am in contact with and for how long. I’m not putting myself in an unnecessarily risky position any more.
If I heard correctly, the worse case scenario is 80% get it, with an overall mortality rate of 1%.
Yes, that's what I heard. The important bit of the message today, though expressed delicately, is that in moving from 'contain' to 'delay' it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point; there is no purpose is avoiding transmission in itself since we are going to get it sometime, only in spreading it out over the longest possible time. hence the rationale of not closing schools, not closing down society etc. That's what you do if you want it to go away altogether. That attempt has been deemed to fail.
In truth various intelligent and mature systems in the western world are trying slightly different things. Personally I sympathise with our government/ expert approach; but it is a gigantic experiment. Those still alive at the end will have learned a lot about what works.
1% of 80% of the population of UK is 520,000. There are about 616,000 UK deaths in a normal year. We shall soon notice what is going on. Understandably none of the political or medical spokespeople I have heard are giving these sorts of figures in this sort of form.
The whole point is that the percentage of the population that gets infected is entirely dependent on the transmission rate, which is entirely dependent on the measures that are taken.
To say that it's inevitable that 80% - or any other percentage - are magically going to be infected is sheer scientific illiteracy. To say nothing of the fact that the 80% number is based on a transmission rate that looks like double the estimate of the WHO-China working group.
It's sad that people seem willing to swallow this guff so uncritically.
80% being 'inevitable' and 80% being 'worst case scenario' are not the same thing. I don't think Boris and his science/medic friends this afternoon were quite as dim as you are making out.
You have to be pretty fucking stupid to post that. If you don't think a peak is inevitable, then the curve of the number infected must carry on going up. And up.
You have to be pretty fucking stupid to think that's what she meant.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
The current government advice is that you should stay home for at least a week with your symptoms. That was very clear from today's announcement.
If I heard correctly, the worse case scenario is 80% get it, with an overall mortality rate of 1%.
Yes, that's what I heard. The important bit of the message today, though expressed delicately, is that in moving from 'contain' to 'delay' it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point; there is no purpose is avoiding transmission in itself since we are going to get it sometime, only in spreading it out over the longest possible time. hence the rationale of not closing schools, not closing down society etc. That's what you do if you want it to go away altogether. That attempt has been deemed to fail.
In truth various intelligent and mature systems in the western world are trying slightly different things. Personally I sympathise with our government/ expert approach; but it is a gigantic experiment. Those still alive at the end will have learned a lot about what works.
1% of 80% of the population of UK is 520,000. There are about 616,000 UK deaths in a normal year. We shall soon notice what is going on. Understandably none of the political or medical spokespeople I have heard are giving these sorts of figures in this sort of form.
I feel a little like a repeating record (so please ignore if dull!) but the mortality is really hard to estimate (note the CMO stated [I think - please correct me if this is wrong] that 1% was an upper bound) until we have a better handle on asymptomatic cases: that can only come from serological studies and those are only starting at present in China and data won't be available for a few weeks.
If there are a large number of carriers who are asymptomatic that will massively change the numbers. For example, the number of observed cases in children is very small as is the mortality; however, there's no biological reason to think they can't get infected. Since over 20% of the UK population is under 20 and presumably very few will die but many will be infected that will increase the denominator substantially. This is all hypothetical until we have more data, but does not seem unreasonable.
It's true that the estimate of the fatality rate depends on what percentage of the cases were detected in China. But remember that for China as a whole the raw figure is more like 4%. It's 0.9% for China outside Hubei. That seems likely to be closer to the truth, but we don't know for sure.
Unfortunately, in Western Europe the overall fatality rate is likely to be at least twice as high as in China simply because we have an older population. And then you have to take account of the fact that there will be no intensive care - or probably even basic medical care - available to most patients during this "peak" the government is [?]planning for.
As you say, it is all very hypothetical in the absence of firm data. Probably serological testing in China will give us firmer data. But at the moment the planning is essentially based on guesswork.
The Dow is currently trading at July 2017 levels, the Nasdaq at June 2019 Levels, the S&P at December 2018 Levels. Conversely, the FTSE is trading at May 2012 Levels, DAX at February 2016 Levels, the CAC 40 Feb 2016 Levels and the FTSE MIB at June 2013 Levels.
It's clear who the market's confidence is best placed to see this through.
Dividends. Most of the FTSE returns comes through dividends, in the US most comes from share price growth. Indices numbers are not comparable over a number of years because of this difference.
... and because of about a million other things.
Relative levels of inflation over that period, for starters. Currency movements and interest rates available on bonds. Index composition, especially in terms of sector. Percentage foreign vs domestic earnings. Good grief.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
Like many now, I’m making my own decisions and that’s going to include demands over who I am in contact with and for how long. I’m not putting myself in an unnecessarily risky position any more.
If you have a cough and low grade fever, then you should certainly stay at home and self isolate.
Take good care of yourself. We don't want to lose you (especially as we have only just found you again).
F1 News - it looks as if nobody can agree on whether the Aus grand prix has been called off or not. Nobody wants to call it off and accept the financial consequences for whichever party takes the decision.
If I heard correctly, the worse case scenario is 80% get it, with an overall mortality rate of 1%.
Yes, that's what I heard. The important bit of the message today, though expressed delicately, is that in moving from 'contain' to 'delay' it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point; there is no purpose is avoiding transmission in itself since we are going to get it sometime, only in spreading it out over the longest possible time. hence the rationale of not closing schools, not closing down society etc. That's what you do if you want it to go away altogether. That attempt has been deemed to fail.
In truth various intelligent and mature systems in the western world are trying slightly different things. Personally I sympathise with our government/ expert approach; but it is a gigantic experiment. Those still alive at the end will have learned a lot about what works.
1% of 80% of the population of UK is 520,000. There are about 616,000 UK deaths in a normal year. We shall soon notice what is going on. Understandably none of the political or medical spokespeople I have heard are giving these sorts of figures in this sort of form.
The whole point is that the percentage of the population that gets infected is entirely dependent on the transmission rate, which is entirely dependent on the measures that are taken.
To say that it's inevitable that 80% - or any other percentage - are magically going to be infected is sheer scientific illiteracy. To say nothing of the fact that the 80% number is based on a transmission rate that looks like double the estimate of the WHO-China working group.
It's sad that people seem willing to swallow this guff so uncritically.
80% being 'inevitable' and 80% being 'worst case scenario' are not the same thing. I don't think Boris and his science/medic friends this afternoon were quite as dim as you are making out.
Just responding to your "it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point."
If you meant "up to 80%" to encompass 0.5% - like in Hubei province - fair enough.
As you say, it is all very hypothetical in the absence of firm data. Probably serological testing in China will give us firmer data. But at the moment the planning is essentially based on guesswork.
There are obviously substantial uncertainties, but it is equally obvious that it is not "based on guesswork" -- it is completely irresponsible to suggest this.
This would be a really good time for Governments to trial Universal Basic Income.
Not if they want to know if it's useful or not. This hardly qualifies as "typical ciircumstances", so any "trial" is flawed from the get-go.
if you're merely saying the government should print a bunch of money and hand it out to the population, then, well, maybe. Seems like they'll just spend it ordering pizzas though, so you could just give it straight to Domino's and cut the admin cost by 99%.
"It's true that the estimate of the fatality rate depends on what percentage of the cases were detected in China. But remember that for China as a whole the raw figure is more like 4%. It's 0.9% for China outside Hubei. That seems likely to be closer to the truth, but we don't know for sure.
Unfortunately, in Western Europe the overall fatality rate is likely to be at least twice as high as in China simply because we have an older population. And then you have to take account of the fact that there will be no intensive care - or probably even basic medical care - available to most patients during this "peak" the government is [?]planning for.
As you say, it is all very hypothetical in the absence of firm data. Probably serological testing in China will give us firmer data. But at the moment the planning is essentially based on guesswork."
----------------
There are other factors working in the opposite direction. Less smokers, less pollution than China, many extra weeks of treatment where doctors can learn and share best practice and find which drugs might help.
It would not be surprising if the fatality rate drops each month as treatment improves.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
The current government advice is that you should stay home for at least a week with your symptoms. That was very clear from today's announcement.
I have students finishing important assessments next week. I’m the only staff member with the knowledge and experience to make that happen. Can I dip in, sort that out over a couple of hours and dip out again? I really don’t know what is being suggested.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
The current government advice is that you should stay home for at least a week with your symptoms. That was very clear from today's announcement.
I have students finishing important assessments next week. I’m the only staff member with the knowledge and experience to make that happen. Can I dip in, sort that out over a couple of hours and dip out again? I really don’t know what is being suggested.
Can you not meet the students via Skype/zoom? Do you need to have face-to-face meetings?
If I heard correctly, the worse case scenario is 80% get it, with an overall mortality rate of 1%.
Yes, that's what I heard. The important bit of the message today, though expressed delicately, is that in moving from 'contain' to 'delay' it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point; there is no purpose is avoiding transmission in itself since we are going to get it sometime, only in spreading it out over the longest possible time. hence the rationale of not closing schools, not closing down society etc. That's what you do if you want it to go away altogether. That attempt has been deemed to fail.
In truth various intelligent and mature systems in the western world are trying slightly different things. Personally I sympathise with our government/ expert approach; but it is a gigantic experiment. Those still alive at the end will have learned a lot about what works.
1% of 80% of the population of UK is 520,000. There are about 616,000 UK deaths in a normal year. We shall soon notice what is going on. Understandably none of the political or medical spokespeople I have heard are giving these sorts of figures in this sort of form.
There will be a significant overlap between those 616k expected deaths and those 520k coronavirus deaths. Maybe a few months early in many cases, but the coronavirus is fishing in the pool of those already weakened.
The government seem to think we are 3 weeks behind Italy. That seems a huge call, I pray they have it right.
Can I just say that I really do believe our medical experts and I am not in any position to distrust them, they could have my life in their hands and if I am content and fairly relaxed but will self isolate and follow public health advice
You have to be pretty fucking stupid to post that. If you don't think a peak is inevitable, then the curve of the number infected must carry on going up. And up.
You have to be pretty fucking stupid to think that's what she meant.
If I heard correctly, the worse case scenario is 80% get it, with an overall mortality rate of 1%.
Yes, that's what I heard. The important bit of the message today, though expressed delicately, is that in moving from 'contain' to 'delay' it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point; there is no purpose is avoiding transmission in itself since we are going to get it sometime, only in spreading it out over the longest possible time. hence the rationale of not closing schools, not closing down society etc. That's what you do if you want it to go away altogether. That attempt has been deemed to fail.
In truth various intelligent and mature systems in the western world are trying slightly different things. Personally I sympathise with our government/ expert approach; but it is a gigantic experiment. Those still alive at the end will have learned a lot about what works.
1% of 80% of the population of UK is 520,000. There are about 616,000 UK deaths in a normal year. We shall soon notice what is going on. Understandably none of the political or medical spokespeople I have heard are giving these sorts of figures in this sort of form.
The whole point is that the percentage of the population that gets infected is entirely dependent on the transmission rate, which is entirely dependent on the measures that are taken.
To say that it's inevitable that 80% - or any other percentage - are magically going to be infected is sheer scientific illiteracy. To say nothing of the fact that the 80% number is based on a transmission rate that looks like double the estimate of the WHO-China working group.
It's sad that people seem willing to swallow this guff so uncritically.
80% being 'inevitable' and 80% being 'worst case scenario' are not the same thing. I don't think Boris and his science/medic friends this afternoon were quite as dim as you are making out.
Just responding to your "it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point."
If you meant "up to 80%" to encompass 0.5% - like in Hubei province - fair enough.
That 80% worst case scenario is this afternoon's Government medics and science people, not a scare figure plucked from nowhere. 0.5% would be much preferred; and if 'only' 325,000 people got infected that would be a great relief.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
Like many now, I’m making my own decisions and that’s going to include demands over who I am in contact with and for how long. I’m not putting myself in an unnecessarily risky position any more.
If you have a cough and low grade fever, then you should certainly stay at home and self isolate.
Take good care of yourself. We don't want to lose you (especially as we have only just found you again).
Damn, I was holding it together and now I’m blubbering.
Truth is (and why I am so anxious) is that I have a small family. Parents are both nearly eighty with underlying health issues. Same with my sister but she’s a few years younger than me. I’m relatively healthy though and my niece is absolutely fine, That’s it. Nobody else.
The stark and almost banal message that we are going to lose some of our loved ones hits hard.
The government seem to think we are 3 weeks behind Italy. That seems a huge call, I pray they have it right.
Can I just say that I really do believe our medical experts and I am not in any position to distrust them, they could have my life in their hands and if I am content and fairly relaxed but will self isolate and follow public health advice
My biggest concern is the ditching of the idea we are going to follow South Korea and mass test. There was talk of doing 10k tests a day, now they are only going to test those in hospital and have pretty much said if you are ill, just sort it out at home on your own unless it gets bad. And there will be no geographical info for the public.
In addition of the loony cult, the 2 strand mass testing in SK has enabled them to quickly rule out those with just a cold and funnel those who probably have to it the more rigorous test. From this, they have then been able to take local measures if an outbreak has popped up.
It's been said before, but the Italian situation was made work because the vast majority of their outbreak was concentrated in a relatively small area. In the UK it is much more spread out. What is the maximum number of sufferers (who wouldn't otherwise be resident for other reasons) in any single UK hospital at the present time?
People are looking at raw numbers to see how far behind we are of Italy. But look at concentrations and we might be much further away than those numbers imply.
Whilst humorous its disappointing seeing some who supported experts through the Brexit process pandering to the Faragist popular-ism of "common sense" on coronavirus.
The PM deserves credit for his full support of the CMO and his communication in todays press conference. It was very good.
It’s moving very quickly to night New York just banned events over 500 people, lots of things happening. Stay safe Pbers. Is this real? Or a nightmare? We have to trust the leaders we have but I hope this is being managed under genuine PC transparency with all parties involved and updated. Safe in my bed until tomorrow.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
The current government advice is that you should stay home for at least a week with your symptoms. That was very clear from today's announcement.
I have students finishing important assessments next week. I’m the only staff member with the knowledge and experience to make that happen. Can I dip in, sort that out over a couple of hours and dip out again? I really don’t know what is being suggested.
Given how few sick days I have I feel a right hypocrite for saying this, but my advice is to keep isolating. Better by far that there’s a bit of a lash-up than that the rest of the staff and your students get infected if you do indeed have Covid-19.
If you were hit by a lorry,* they would have to cope. This is no different, except insofar as if you take the time off to recover you should be back with them soon.
*Obviously, I’m hoping that doesn’t happen, but the point stands.
The government seem to think we are 3 weeks behind Italy. That seems a huge call, I pray they have it right.
Can I just say that I really do believe our medical experts and I am not in any position to distrust them, they could have my life in their hands and if I am content and fairly relaxed but will self isolate and follow public health advice
My biggest concern is the ditching of the idea we are going to follow South Korea and mass test. There was talk of doing 10k tests a day, now they are only going to test those in hospital and have pretty much said if you are ill, just sort it out at home on your own unless it gets bad. And there will be no geographical info for the public.
In addition of the loony cult, the 2 strand mass testing in SK has enabled them to quickly rule out those with just a cold and funnel those who probably have to it the more rigorous test. From this, they have then been able to take local measures if an outbreak has popped up.
The problem with mass testing is it will ramp up the numbers of reported cases and may lead to additional pressure to make suboptimal decisions. I wish more publicity was made of hospitalised and ICU cases, than overall positive tests.
If I heard correctly, the worse case scenario is 80% get it, with an overall mortality rate of 1%.
Yes, that's what I heard. The important bit of the message today, though expressed delicately, is that in moving from 'contain' to 'delay' it is accepted that up to 80% of the population get infected at some point; there is no purpose is avoiding transmission in itself since we are going to get it sometime, only in spreading it out over the longest possible time. hence the rationale of not closing schools, not closing down society etc. That's what you do if you want it to go away altogether. That attempt has been deemed to fail.
In truth various intelligent and mature systems in the western world are trying slightly different things. Personally I sympathise with our government/ expert approach; but it is a gigantic experiment. Those still alive at the end will have learned a lot about what works.
1% of 80% of the population of UK is 520,000. There are about 616,000 UK deaths in a normal year. We shall soon notice what is going on. Understandably none of the political or medical spokespeople I have heard are giving these sorts of figures in this sort of form.
There will be a significant overlap between those 616k expected deaths and those 520k coronavirus deaths. Maybe a few months early in many cases, but the coronavirus is fishing in the pool of those already weakened.
I doubt if anyone truly has the faintest idea how many extra deaths there shall be. Somewhere between 300 and 2 million I should think. If it is at the high end of the possible outcomes we will soon notice. I still hope its in the hundreds...
"It's true that the estimate of the fatality rate depends on what percentage of the cases were detected in China. But remember that for China as a whole the raw figure is more like 4%. It's 0.9% for China outside Hubei. That seems likely to be closer to the truth, but we don't know for sure.
Unfortunately, in Western Europe the overall fatality rate is likely to be at least twice as high as in China simply because we have an older population. And then you have to take account of the fact that there will be no intensive care - or probably even basic medical care - available to most patients during this "peak" the government is [?]planning for.
As you say, it is all very hypothetical in the absence of firm data. Probably serological testing in China will give us firmer data. But at the moment the planning is essentially based on guesswork."
----------------
There are other factors working in the opposite direction. Less smokers, less pollution than China, many extra weeks of treatment where doctors can learn and share best practice and find which drugs might help.
It would not be surprising if the fatality rate drops each month as treatment improves.
Unfortunately, the Case Fatality Ratio - resolved cases of Covid-19 - has actually risen again. It was down at 6% it's not back up to 7%.
This is pretty chilling if the Merkels of this world are right, and 60-70% of us will get it. Makes this much much worse than Spanish flu. An historic cull of the human population.
Merkel did not predict that. She said that was an estimate of a worst case scenario. Similar to the UK govts 80%. These are numbers that would happen if we carried on as we were in January. We have already significantly changed behaviour, and clearly will take further action beyond that. There is no reason to expect those numbers.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
The current government advice is that you should stay home for at least a week with your symptoms. That was very clear from today's announcement.
I have students finishing important assessments next week. I’m the only staff member with the knowledge and experience to make that happen. Can I dip in, sort that out over a couple of hours and dip out again? I really don’t know what is being suggested.
Can you not meet the students via Skype/zoom? Do you need to have face-to-face meetings?
It’s non examined assessment that needs me to oversee it. Then there’s another exam just before Easter and, if I miss their lessons next week, they won’t be ready. This is GCSE, they need a bomb behind them at the best of times. I fear that if I’m not there and the exam goes ahead, they’ll end up below expectations.
The government seem to think we are 3 weeks behind Italy. That seems a huge call, I pray they have it right.
Can I just say that I really do believe our medical experts and I am not in any position to distrust them, they could have my life in their hands and if I am content and fairly relaxed but will self isolate and follow public health advice
My biggest concern is the ditching of the idea we are going to follow South Korea and mass test. There was talk of doing 10k tests a day, now they are only going to test those in hospital and have pretty much said if you are ill, just sort it out at home on your own unless it gets bad. And there will be no geographical info for the public.
In addition of the loony cult, the 2 strand mass testing in SK has enabled them to quickly rule out those with just a cold and funnel those who probably have to it the more rigorous test. From this, they have then been able to take local measures if an outbreak has popped up.
The problem with mass testing is it will ramp up the numbers of reported cases and may lead to additional pressure to make suboptimal decisions. I wish more publicity was made of hospitalised and ICU cases, than overall positive tests.
I don't care if they keep the numbers to themselves, but how do you fight something if you don't really know there is an issue until your hospital gets flooded.
You need to know a good sample of who has it and where e.g. Germany initial outbreak was young people, which is very different from Italy experience.
They did say at the press conference how many UK patients were hospitalized at the moment with it, but I can't remember the exact number, 100 perhaps? But obviously the policy upto today has been one of much more likely to take you to hospital than not to find out more.
The government seem to think we are 3 weeks behind Italy. That seems a huge call, I pray they have it right.
Can I just say that I really do believe our medical experts and I am not in any position to distrust them, they could have my life in their hands and if I am content and fairly relaxed but will self isolate and follow public health advice
My biggest concern is the ditching of the idea we are going to follow South Korea and mass test. There was talk of doing 10k tests a day, now they are only going to test those in hospital and have pretty much said if you are ill, just sort it out at home on your own unless it gets bad. And there will be no geographical info for the public.
In addition of the loony cult, the 2 strand mass testing in SK has enabled them to quickly rule out those with just a cold and funnel those who probably have to it the more rigorous test. From this, they have then been able to take local measures if an outbreak has popped up.
The problem with mass testing is it will ramp up the numbers of reported cases and may lead to additional pressure to make suboptimal decisions. I wish more publicity was made of hospitalised and ICU cases, than overall positive tests.
ICU utlilisation is the key indicator when it goes beyond 110% I think there will be problems.
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
The current government advice is that you should stay home for at least a week with your symptoms. That was very clear from today's announcement.
I have students finishing important assessments next week. I’m the only staff member with the knowledge and experience to make that happen. Can I dip in, sort that out over a couple of hours and dip out again? I really don’t know what is being suggested.
Can you not meet the students via Skype/zoom? Do you need to have face-to-face meetings?
It’s non examined assessment that needs me to oversee it. Then there’s another exam just before Easter and, if I miss their lessons next week, they won’t be ready. This is GCSE, they need a bomb behind them at the best of times. I fear that if I’m not there and the exam goes ahead, they’ll end up below expectations.
Can I suggest a compromise that has worked for my school in the past? You Skype into the lesson while another colleague is on the spot physically overseeing things.
The former head of the FDA, who seems a great deal more on the ball than the current incumbent: https://twitter.com /ScottGottliebMD/status/1238058027510575107
I have an unpleasant feeling we just chose to be Italy.
Unless every country is South Korea every country will be Italy.
The PM deserves credit for his full support of the CMO and his communication in todays press conference. It was very good.
Blair, Brown, Cameron and May would have been equally good and equally commanding at such an event.
These events aren't difficult for a politician - sound authoritative, defer to the experts as often as possible and, after all, who is going to gainsay the experts with any credibility?
"It's true that the estimate of the fatality rate depends on what percentage of the cases were detected in China. But remember that for China as a whole the raw figure is more like 4%. It's 0.9% for China outside Hubei. That seems likely to be closer to the truth, but we don't know for sure.
Unfortunately, in Western Europe the overall fatality rate is likely to be at least twice as high as in China simply because we have an older population. And then you have to take account of the fact that there will be no intensive care - or probably even basic medical care - available to most patients during this "peak" the government is [?]planning for.
As you say, it is all very hypothetical in the absence of firm data. Probably serological testing in China will give us firmer data. But at the moment the planning is essentially based on guesswork."
----------------
There are other factors working in the opposite direction. Less smokers, less pollution than China, many extra weeks of treatment where doctors can learn and share best practice and find which drugs might help.
It would not be surprising if the fatality rate drops each month as treatment improves.
Unfortunately, the Case Fatality Ratio - resolved cases of Covid-19 - has actually risen again. It was down at 6% it's not back up to 7%.
This is pretty chilling if the Merkels of this world are right, and 60-70% of us will get it. Makes this much much worse than Spanish flu. An historic cull of the human population.
Merkel did not predict that. She said that was an estimate of a worst case scenario. Similar to the UK govts 80%. These are numbers that would happen if we carried on as we were in January. We have already significantly changed behaviour, and clearly will take further action beyond that. There is no reason to expect those numbers.
Your spin is slightly optimistic, but of course I hope you are right.
""We have to understand that many people will be infected,” Merkel said. “The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70% of the population will be infected as long as this remains the situation.”
Merkel’s estimates were probably a worst-case scenario, though not wildly out of line with those of experts outside Germany."
Macron closing the education system down in France.
Didn’t I just read on here that France was one of those countries with the best scientists? Have they now joined the not so good scientists of Ireland, Denmark, Turkey etc,, now?
France is at a different stage of the epidemic.
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
Suggests that 3000 or so, is a figure that triggers that sort of thing. For myself, I’ve had a persistent cough for a few days and a low grade fever. I catch everything going so unlikely to be the big one. Do the government want me to risk spreading it? I’m not sure.
The current government advice is that you should stay home for at least a week with your symptoms. That was very clear from today's announcement.
I have students finishing important assessments next week. I’m the only staff member with the knowledge and experience to make that happen. Can I dip in, sort that out over a couple of hours and dip out again? I really don’t know what is being suggested.
Can you not meet the students via Skype/zoom? Do you need to have face-to-face meetings?
It’s non examined assessment that needs me to oversee it. Then there’s another exam just before Easter and, if I miss their lessons next week, they won’t be ready. This is GCSE, they need a bomb behind them at the best of times. I fear that if I’m not there and the exam goes ahead, they’ll end up below expectations.
Can I suggest a compromise that has worked for my school in the past? You Skype into the lesson while another colleague is on the spot physically overseeing things.
Comments
https://www.thehrdirector.com/business-news/health-and-wellbeing/four-million-working-from-home/
4.55 million people work in retail and hospitality
1.9 million people work in healthcare
Between those 2 industries we're talking 20% of the UK's workforce. So you're suggesting that the equivalent of 100% of every other industry (manufactoring, agriculture etc included) and 75% of those can all be done from home? No face to face interactions?
However, I think an initial lockdown (to calm everyone down), then respite, then *another* lockdown would have been better, but I can see the logic of the government's plan.
The bigger problem will be to hold his nerve when people start dying Italian-style. People like Cummings might be able to operate ultra-logically, with an eye on the longer term, but many of the population can't/won't...
That makes more sense.
Like me he is doesn't quite believe that oldies can't stick out 3-4 months really keeping away from everybody as best as possible and that they will tire of this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geert_Hofstede
*it seems to my non-expert eyes.
Once the content is finished an extended Easter holiday becomes a lot more manageable.
I said the percentage that cannot is much lower, which it is.
You have muddled the logic.
In truth various intelligent and mature systems in the western world are trying slightly different things. Personally I sympathise with our government/ expert approach; but it is a gigantic experiment. Those still alive at the end will have learned a lot about what works.
1% of 80% of the population of UK is 520,000. There are about 616,000 UK deaths in a normal year. We shall soon notice what is going on. Understandably none of the political or medical spokespeople I have heard are giving these sorts of figures in this sort of form.
His claim that less than 5% can work from home is palpable nonsense.
Guess they need some arbitrary cut offs.
Let`s say that 50% can`t work from home (to keep you happy) - my point still stands. These people are proper fucked if the government passes a law which makes them stay at home.
It's clear who the market's confidence is best placed to see this through.
Starmonism - you heard it here first, folks - the 2020s equivalent of Butskellism,
It may be the case that in a weeks time, the scientific advice here is to close all the schools.
I understand these are anxious times for teachers who fall into the vulnerable category, but I am sure the advice of the scientists will have been given so as to ensure as many people as possible pull through the epidemic.
To say that it's inevitable that 80% - or any other percentage - are magically going to be infected is sheer scientific illiteracy. To say nothing of the fact that the 80% number is based on a transmission rate that looks like double the estimate of the WHO-China working group.
It's sad that people seem willing to swallow this guff so uncritically.
Like many now, I’m making my own decisions and that’s going to include demands over who I am in contact with and for how long. I’m not putting myself in an unnecessarily risky position any more.
https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1236721200291655680
The question is why are the UK uniquely aiming for the narrow peak on the left instead of the flat 'peak' on the right.
Like Ireland
And Norway.
And France.
Why are our scientists so out of line?
Unfortunately, in Western Europe the overall fatality rate is likely to be at least twice as high as in China simply because we have an older population. And then you have to take account of the fact that there will be no intensive care - or probably even basic medical care - available to most patients during this "peak" the government is [?]planning for.
As you say, it is all very hypothetical in the absence of firm data. Probably serological testing in China will give us firmer data. But at the moment the planning is essentially based on guesswork.
Relative levels of inflation over that period, for starters. Currency movements and interest rates available on bonds. Index composition, especially in terms of sector. Percentage foreign vs domestic earnings. Good grief.
Take good care of yourself. We don't want to lose you (especially as we have only just found you again).
If you meant "up to 80%" to encompass 0.5% - like in Hubei province - fair enough.
if you're merely saying the government should print a bunch of money and hand it out to the population, then, well, maybe. Seems like they'll just spend it ordering pizzas though, so you could just give it straight to Domino's and cut the admin cost by 99%.
"It's true that the estimate of the fatality rate depends on what percentage of the cases were detected in China. But remember that for China as a whole the raw figure is more like 4%. It's 0.9% for China outside Hubei. That seems likely to be closer to the truth, but we don't know for sure.
Unfortunately, in Western Europe the overall fatality rate is likely to be at least twice as high as in China simply because we have an older population. And then you have to take account of the fact that there will be no intensive care - or probably even basic medical care - available to most patients during this "peak" the government is [?]planning for.
As you say, it is all very hypothetical in the absence of firm data. Probably serological testing in China will give us firmer data. But at the moment the planning is essentially based on guesswork."
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There are other factors working in the opposite direction. Less smokers, less pollution than China, many extra weeks of treatment where doctors can learn and share best practice and find which drugs might help.
It would not be surprising if the fatality rate drops each month as treatment improves.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1238058027510575107
I have an unpleasant feeling we just chose to be Italy.
I wish a mod would ban you from posting tweets.
Truth is (and why I am so anxious) is that I have a small family. Parents are both nearly eighty with underlying health issues. Same with my sister but she’s a few years younger than me. I’m relatively healthy though and my niece is absolutely fine, That’s it. Nobody else.
The stark and almost banal message that we are going to lose some of our loved ones hits hard.
In addition of the loony cult, the 2 strand mass testing in SK has enabled them to quickly rule out those with just a cold and funnel those who probably have to it the more rigorous test. From this, they have then been able to take local measures if an outbreak has popped up.
People are looking at raw numbers to see how far behind we are of Italy. But look at concentrations and we might be much further away than those numbers imply.
The PM deserves credit for his full support of the CMO and his communication in todays press conference. It was very good.
If you were hit by a lorry,* they would have to cope. This is no different, except insofar as if you take the time off to recover you should be back with them soon.
*Obviously, I’m hoping that doesn’t happen, but the point stands.
You need to know a good sample of who has it and where e.g. Germany initial outbreak was young people, which is very different from Italy experience.
They did say at the press conference how many UK patients were hospitalized at the moment with it, but I can't remember the exact number, 100 perhaps? But obviously the policy upto today has been one of much more likely to take you to hospital than not to find out more.
These events aren't difficult for a politician - sound authoritative, defer to the experts as often as possible and, after all, who is going to gainsay the experts with any credibility?