5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest.
I can’t quite work out who is more annoyed by the budget - the wets/Cameroons or the few remaining Labour supporters..
Is anyone particular upset about it? It's seemingly a big spending spree so something to cheer for most of us.
Whether it bears any relation whatsoever to the Tories' endless moralising about the debt/deficit over the past decade is a different question entirely.
My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.
Not good.
In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
But will have tested a lot.
The longer we can push back the peak the better.
It's an interesting anthropological study reading your unthoughtful posts daily.
A few days back you were banging on in your usual nasty little way about "people being bored of the Shanghai Sniffle, they should get out and enjoy themselves".
Now it's about moving the peak back.
I wonder what you are like in real life – surely not as unthinking and reactionary as you present on here?
In the last 2 weeks 200+ people will have taken their own lives in the Uk.
After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.
I'm not sure how much of this is left/right. In capitalism you invest into things that deliver a return on investment. All the vast billions to be thrown at infrastructure will provide a return in the short term as it gives people jobs and in the long term as it boosts economic output.
Where politicians got lost for a decade was in thinking that investment was the same as subsidy. It is not. For a decade we had people moaning about lack if stuff and the crumbling nature of what we had, yet every time someone suggested spending the right said "who will pay for it" and the left said "blame greedy elites".
This was a *good* budget. Short term relief for disruption. Medium term heavy investment to make the economy stronger. Longer term return to growth. Is anyone really arguing against money for road / rail / broadband / schools / hospitals because borrowing? Its borrowed in Sterling. Which we've just made almost free to borrow and we print. Spend now. Invest now. Benefit later.
My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.
Not good.
In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
But will have tested a lot.
The longer we can push back the peak the better.
It's an interesting anthropological study reading your unthoughtful posts daily.
A few days back you were banging on in your usual nasty little way about "people being bored of the Shanghai Sniffle, they should get out and enjoy themselves".
Now it's about moving the peak back.
I wonder what you are like in real life – surely not as unthinking and reactionary as you present on here?
In the last 2 weeks 200+ people will have taken their own lives in the Uk.
After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.
So I assume all the wailing about austerity will now end?
Thought not.
The Tories have admitted they were wrong. They've wasted 10 years.
When did they do that? Changing position now doesnt price that.
Big jump in % of tests coming back positive over the last couple of days. Not encouraging.
Yes, it is clearly spreading, albeit so far at a relatively modest rate. That's not unexpected, of course. I suspect that those suggesting that Matt Hancock's 7pm statement will include more recommended (or even mandatory) restrictions are right. Coordinating these with today's budget measures to offer more assistance makes good sense, to be fair.
Perhaps. Some, though could have come much sooner rather than wait for an artificial Budget timetable.
As I've said before, I'm willing to an extent to give the government the benefit of the doubt (and I have no big gripes about the budget), but their coronavirus response just seem a bit lackadaisical.
After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.
So I assume all the wailing about austerity will now end?
Thought not.
The Tories have admitted they were wrong. They've wasted 10 years.
When did they do that? Changing position now doesnt price that.
They're not even changing position now lol. Cyclical spending is consistent with the work done for the last decade lol. Brown's failure was blowing up spending BEFORE the downturn, not at the start of it!
My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.
Not good.
In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
But will have tested a lot.
The longer we can push back the peak the better.
It's an interesting anthropological study reading your unthoughtful posts daily.
A few days back you were banging on in your usual nasty little way about "people being bored of the Shanghai Sniffle, they should get out and enjoy themselves".
Now it's about moving the peak back.
I wonder what you are like in real life – surely not as unthinking and reactionary as you present on here?
In the last 2 weeks 200+ people will have taken their own lives in the Uk.
My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.
Not good.
In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
But will have tested a lot.
The longer we can push back the peak the better.
It's an interesting anthropological study reading your unthoughtful posts daily.
A few days back you were banging on in your usual nasty little way about "people being bored of the Shanghai Sniffle, they should get out and enjoy themselves".
Now it's about moving the peak back.
I wonder what you are like in real life – surely not as unthinking and reactionary as you present on here?
In the last 2 weeks 200+ people will have taken their own lives in the Uk.
Zero coverage in the media.
Is the rate of suicide doubling every 5 days?
Precisely. People aren't worried about the absolute number of people dying from coronavirus now. They are worried about how it is rapidly spreading.
My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.
Not good.
In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
But will have tested a lot.
The longer we can push back the peak the better.
It's an interesting anthropological study reading your unthoughtful posts daily.
A few days back you were banging on in your usual nasty little way about "people being bored of the Shanghai Sniffle, they should get out and enjoy themselves".
Now it's about moving the peak back.
I wonder what you are like in real life – surely not as unthinking and reactionary as you present on here?
In the last 2 weeks 200+ people will have taken their own lives in the Uk.
Zero coverage in the media.
Is the rate of suicide doubling every 5 days?
I can see a serious increase once millions are in lock down, with just the latest body count on the BBC to keep them entertained.
My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.
Not good.
In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
But will have tested a lot.
The longer we can push back the peak the better.
It's an interesting anthropological study reading your unthoughtful posts daily.
A few days back you were banging on in your usual nasty little way about "people being bored of the Shanghai Sniffle, they should get out and enjoy themselves".
Now it's about moving the peak back.
I wonder what you are like in real life – surely not as unthinking and reactionary as you present on here?
In the last 2 weeks 200+ people will have taken their own lives in the Uk.
Zero coverage in the media.
Is the rate of suicide doubling every 5 days?
Will coronavirus double every 5 days forever?
No, but it will for a while. Suicides will not, thankfully.
After that budget, what do the Tories stand for and believe in? It does seem as if the left - if not Labour - has won the economic argument completely.
I'm not sure how much of this is left/right. In capitalism you invest into things that deliver a return on investment. All the vast billions to be thrown at infrastructure will provide a return in the short term as it gives people jobs and in the long term as it boosts economic output.
Where politicians got lost for a decade was in thinking that investment was the same as subsidy. It is not. For a decade we had people moaning about lack if stuff and the crumbling nature of what we had, yet every time someone suggested spending the right said "who will pay for it" and the left said "blame greedy elites".
This was a *good* budget. Short term relief for disruption. Medium term heavy investment to make the economy stronger. Longer term return to growth. Is anyone really arguing against money for road / rail / broadband / schools / hospitals because borrowing? Its borrowed in Sterling. Which we've just made almost free to borrow and we print. Spend now. Invest now. Benefit later.
Yep, fair comment. With full employment, though, who does all the extra building?
Another thought I've had: coronavirus might be bad news for pregnant women, like other flus (we don't quite know yet). Carrie Symonds should be worried.
They won't learn until it strikes half of them down.
From what I understand, this is unlike flu and does not pose any increased risk to babies in utero.
My bad, that is the biggest increase in a day for the UK.
Not good.
In a week, we will be at 1000s of cases.
But will have tested a lot.
The longer we can push back the peak the better.
It's an interesting anthropological study reading your unthoughtful posts daily.
A few days back you were banging on in your usual nasty little way about "people being bored of the Shanghai Sniffle, they should get out and enjoy themselves".
Now it's about moving the peak back.
I wonder what you are like in real life – surely not as unthinking and reactionary as you present on here?
In the last 2 weeks 200+ people will have taken their own lives in the Uk.
Zero coverage in the media.
Is the rate of suicide doubling every 5 days?
I can see a serious increase once millions are in lock down, with just the latest body count on the BBC to keep them entertained.
If it comes down to it, doctors don't make judgments on that basis, but rather on an assessment of who has the better survival prospects of those requiring intensive care (if resources are overwhelmed). Advancing age, of course, correlates with lower survival prospects, but it's far from the only thing.
Really? I mean we have a criminal justice system that is creaking under a mountain of historic sex cases, one even involving a former FM. The man is dead for goodness sake. What a waste of time.
This was a *good* budget. Short term relief for disruption. Medium term heavy investment to make the economy stronger. Longer term return to growth. Is anyone really arguing against money for road / rail / broadband / schools / hospitals because borrowing? Its borrowed in Sterling. Which we've just made almost free to borrow and we print. Spend now. Invest now. Benefit later.
I haven't had a chance to go through the Budget in detail but there seem few surprises. Money has been found from the back of the sofa (isn't it always?) to help mitigate the effects of coronavirus though global disruptions to supply chains and global demand weakness aren't going to be ameliorated by Sunak's largesse as I'm sure he knows.
He will rely on a strong recovery once the virus has passed which will again hopefully mitigate any impacts from full EU withdrawal at the end of the year.
The cut in interest rates is another kick in the gonads for savers but they've had more than a decade of this. I'm also of the view there's only so much stimulus or economic methodone that can be taken before the effectiveness diminishes. At 0.25%, as you say, borrowing is cheap so we start borrowing but that borrowing has to be paid back by someone somewhere someday.
It has to be hoped the capital infrastructure projects supported by this borrowing achieve the economic growth predicted but the growth figures look pretty anaemic and that's before the impact of the virus.
Whenever transgender issues are raised it seems fair value to back 1.2 that the person raising it is someone who says no-one is interested in it and it doesnt need to be discussed. Very curious.
Corbyn cut a sad figure at the dispatch box today. Greeted largely with silence, droning on to a disinterested chamber. Labour must be counting down the days til he exits stage left.
One thing I've noticed: there seems to be a moment with the Don't Panickers when they suddenly become aware. ie when reality hits, it hits quick and hard, and the growth in their awareness becomes, uh, exponential.
It's a kind of psychological defloration; the Normalcy Bias is popped and the jaw drops.
I've seen it in my family and friends as they asborb the news. Up until a few days ago half of them were in the Just The Flu brigade.
Now the majority are Wow, where can I buy bog roll and how can I hide away.
I have to say it is the smarter who get this quicker, as you might expect.
One of the cleverest people I know (probably a genius) was until recently completely ignorant of coronavirus. However, he wasn't a Just The Fluer - he's just so relentlessly focused on his design business he doesn't notice much else, unless he is obliged to.
The other day I rang him to give him my thoughts. His awareness of the virus was still very vague. But he patiently listened to everything I said, then did some Googling, and asked some other friends. Within an hour of my call he was down at Asda in Cardiff loading his Aston Martin with the usuals, and he has now stockpiled oil, petrol, water, and is thinking of getting a generator.
You really are a pompous ass.
No one has dismissed this epidemic.
Lots of us have doubted your predictions of 70% infection rate and millions of Brits dying on the streets.
So far, events aren’t bearing you out. Thankfully.
Posting from a big Tesco in Newcastle. Absolutely no shortage of loo roll.
And from the front line - bus in Central London. Not a mask in sight.
Looks like it's over. So what Sunak is doing god only knows.
I am on the tube and several masks here
There was a guy in my local Marks and Sparks just now, in a face mask, and wearing those thin disposable gloves.
It was me.
Don’t you have enough bog roll already?
I have plenty of loo roll. I also have a loo douche - a Japanese style bum gun - so unlike most I don't need so much loo roll.
I WAS PREPARED
My purchases were a lobster roll for lunch, and a fine rib eye steak for dinner. If I'm going to be locked down for two months I might as well enjoy the smaller things in life.
Did the lobster roll taste as nice as the loo roll?
Corbyn cut a sad figure at the dispatch box today. Greeted largely with silence, droning on to a disinterested chamber. Labour must be counting down the days til he exits stage left.
It was pathetic but actually still marginally better than last year's shouty effort. You can't help feeling even his heart is no longer in it.
Why isn;t this being treated on an age basis? if you are over 60 with existing health issues, stay indoors and stay away from other people.
If you're under 60 you may get ill, it may be unpleasant, but you will get over it. So carry on as normal and don't visit elderly contacts.
The MEDIAN age of patients being admitted to ICU in Italy is 65. So even if you are bound to be ok under 60 (and you aren't, many doctors in their 30s and 40s died in Wuhan) it may be at the expense of causing other deaths by taking an icu bed off someone else.
One thing I've noticed: there seems to be a moment with the Don't Panickers when they suddenly become aware. ie when reality hits, it hits quick and hard, and the growth in their awareness becomes, uh, exponential.
It's a kind of psychological defloration; the Normalcy Bias is popped and the jaw drops.
I've seen it in my family and friends as they asborb the news. Up until a few days ago half of them were in the Just The Flu brigade.
Now the majority are Wow, where can I buy bog roll and how can I hide away.
I have to say it is the smarter who get this quicker, as you might expect.
One of the cleverest people I know (probably a genius) was until recently completely ignorant of coronavirus. However, he wasn't a Just The Fluer - he's just so relentlessly focused on his design business he doesn't notice much else, unless he is obliged to.
The other day I rang him to give him my thoughts. His awareness of the virus was still very vague. But he patiently listened to everything I said, then did some Googling, and asked some other friends. Within an hour of my call he was down at Asda in Cardiff loading his Aston Martin with the usuals, and he has now stockpiled oil, petrol, water, and is thinking of getting a generator.
YOu are talking about a disease that, if you are under 60 and healthy, you will almost certainly survive with no ill effects after a few weeks.
People in the 1930s had whooping cough, diptheria and polio to deal with. Tuberculosis. And no antibiotics.
By your standards, its only amazing they ever ventured out of their houses at all.
One thing I've noticed: there seems to be a moment with the Don't Panickers when they suddenly become aware. ie when reality hits, it hits quick and hard, and the growth in their awareness becomes, uh, exponential.
It's a kind of psychological defloration; the Normalcy Bias is popped and the jaw drops.
I've seen it in my family and friends as they asborb the news. Up until a few days ago half of them were in the Just The Flu brigade.
Now the majority are Wow, where can I buy bog roll and how can I hide away.
I have to say it is the smarter who get this quicker, as you might expect.
One of the cleverest people I know (probably a genius) was until recently completely ignorant of coronavirus. However, he wasn't a Just The Fluer - he's just so relentlessly focused on his design business he doesn't notice much else, unless he is obliged to.
The other day I rang him to give him my thoughts. His awareness of the virus was still very vague. But he patiently listened to everything I said, then did some Googling, and asked some other friends. Within an hour of my call he was down at Asda in Cardiff loading his Aston Martin with the usuals, and he has now stockpiled oil, petrol, water, and is thinking of getting a generator.
It's a good wheat from chaff separator IMO.
It's going to be deeply terrible and scarring but I have learnt a lot about human psychology.
Some people just refuse to hear bad news but if you sit them down and patiently explain the situation they will listen. Posting on here, on Twitter, on any social media, the news? Much much slower in accepting information.
Some will keep arguing about the minutiae weeks later, forgetting they were wrong then and they are much more likely to be wrong now. It's what makes coming on here a blessing and a bit of a curse.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
Really? I mean we have a criminal justice system that is creaking under a mountain of historic sex cases, one even involving a former FM. The man is dead for goodness sake. What a waste of time.
No desire to discover who actually bombed the plane?
One thing I've noticed: there seems to be a moment with the Don't Panickers when they suddenly become aware. ie when reality hits, it hits quick and hard, and the growth in their awareness becomes, uh, exponential.
It's a kind of psychological defloration; the Normalcy Bias is popped and the jaw drops.
I've seen it in my family and friends as they asborb the news. Up until a few days ago half of them were in the Just The Flu brigade.
Now the majority are Wow, where can I buy bog roll and how can I hide away.
I have to say it is the smarter who get this quicker, as you might expect.
One of the cleverest people I know (probably a genius) was until recently completely ignorant of coronavirus. However, he wasn't a Just The Fluer - he's just so relentlessly focused on his design business he doesn't notice much else, unless he is obliged to.
The other day I rang him to give him my thoughts. His awareness of the virus was still very vague. But he patiently listened to everything I said, then did some Googling, and asked some other friends. Within an hour of my call he was down at Asda in Cardiff loading his Aston Martin with the usuals, and he has now stockpiled oil, petrol, water, and is thinking of getting a generator.
One thing I've noticed: there seems to be a moment with the Don't Panickers when they suddenly become aware. ie when reality hits, it hits quick and hard, and the growth in their awareness becomes, uh, exponential.
It's a kind of psychological defloration; the Normalcy Bias is popped and the jaw drops.
I've seen it in my family and friends as they asborb the news. Up until a few days ago half of them were in the Just The Flu brigade.
Now the majority are Wow, where can I buy bog roll and how can I hide away.
I have to say it is the smarter who get this quicker, as you might expect.
One of the cleverest people I know (probably a genius) was until recently completely ignorant of coronavirus. However, he wasn't a Just The Fluer - he's just so relentlessly focused on his design business he doesn't notice much else, unless he is obliged to.
The other day I rang him to give him my thoughts. His awareness of the virus was still very vague. But he patiently listened to everything I said, then did some Googling, and asked some other friends. Within an hour of my call he was down at Asda in Cardiff loading his Aston Martin with the usuals, and he has now stockpiled oil, petrol, water, and is thinking of getting a generator.
You really are a pompous ass.
No one has dismissed this epidemic.
Lots of us have doubted your predictions of 70% infection rate and millions of Brits dying on the streets.
So far, events aren’t bearing you out. Thankfully.
So far. OMG
You're literally the guy who jumps out of a twenty storey skyscraper who is heard saying, as he plummets past the 12th floor, "well, so far, it's not so bad"
lol. You're an imbecile.
Time will judge who is the imbecile.
Not so long, you were pumping Henrietta’s dodgy predictions here every day. Yesterday you admitted they were pants. Just as we told you.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
This weekend. People will have time to read the news. Italy could be reporting several hundred deaths per day, if not more. The new restrictions will be in place. We'll be doing 10,000 tests/day, increasing the number of cases found. That's when panic sets in.
It's actually a clever way of double counting: spend billions to mitigate the effects of Boris's Brexit but also get a load of gushing 'Spend, Spend, Spend' headlines. Boris gets two political benefits for the price of one.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
My local Tesco in downtown East Ham has been stripped bare (well, nearly) of pasta and toilet rolls but everything else in stock.
I confess I've stocked up on Saucy Sauce and chicken soup.
Self isolation with horse racing and the betting account for 14 days - I may not get ill but I will suffer financially.
I genuinely do not understand how anyone can take a 15 year economic forecast at all seriously. You only have to think about the general election to the budget today to see how much BS is spouted about the economy everyday. Economics is a useful field of study for discussing what has happened, but it is almost completely useless for predicting the future.
Really? I mean we have a criminal justice system that is creaking under a mountain of historic sex cases, one even involving a former FM. The man is dead for goodness sake. What a waste of time.
No desire to discover who actually bombed the plane?
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
Not sure what proper panic is? If we switch to proper panic will it help anyone?
I am quite re-assured by the weeks events so far, some of the worst case scenarios look less likely and most people are preparing, not panicking for a potential 2-4 week period when things will largely shut down. We will cope and move on. It is unlikely to be worse than the flu of 1989 which very few remember despite it killing 30,000 in the UK alone.
The Labour party argument since 2010 was that austerity was not necessary because an increase in public spending could largely be self funding through additional growth. Personally I have never believed that but we are now about to find out if that was true although we are starting with a budget that's a lot nearer balanced than it was in 2010. Of course the circumstances are not particularly propitious given that the Virus is certain to cause a sharp but hopefully brief recession. But we shall see.
Longer term we need to get growth back over 2%. A forecast for next year of 1.8% is quite punchy but it may in fact be exceeded if there is a rebound from a negative figure this year. The investment in infrastructure and science really should produce some returns. But I still have doubts.
I see Spain has issued advice against domestic and international travel - expected to become compulsory within the next fortnight. I suspect Semana Santa is about to be pretty well cancelled. Huge hit to tourism but may help limit the spread to the Costas so I am most relieved.
If you do not mind could you explain Spains advice against domestic and international travel as I have not yet cancelled our trip to Vancouver in May, but will do and UK government advice will be key to our insurance
Sanchez is advising against any travel within Spain from affected areas or from outside countries affected by coronavirus. The expectation seems to be that quite soon the advice will become compulsory. Easter normally involves a lot internal and external movement to religious centres and the Costas. It seems likely that this year that could all be stopped. Spain has more cases in the centre and north but it's a huge country and apart from Barcelona much of the east and south coast as well as Galicia in the NW have very few cases. Curtailing big movements could potentially keep it that way.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
The government and press should emphasise the rate of increase, because that's what we need to focus on not the headline numbers, which will soon look horrifying I have no doubt. Get the rate down and we might — fingers crossed — do what China has done (assuming they aren't lying).
The Labour party argument since 2010 was that austerity was not necessary because an increase in public spending could largely be self funding through additional growth. Personally I have never believed that but we are now about to find out if that was true although we are starting with a budget that's a lot nearer balanced than it was in 2010. Of course the circumstances are not particularly propitious given that the Virus is certain to cause a sharp but hopefully brief recession. But we shall see.
Longer term we need to get growth back over 2%. A forecast for next year of 1.8% is quite punchy but it may in fact be exceeded if there is a rebound from a negative figure this year. The investment in infrastructure and science really should produce some returns. But I still have doubts.
There are risks either way, no guarantees or clearly right answers but on balance its a reasonable budget given where we are. Would have liked to have seen more done on sick pay esp for self employed and gig economy but that may come in next few weeks if things get worse.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
The government and press should emphasise the rate of increase, because that's what we need to focus on not the headline numbers, which will soon look horrifying I have no doubt. Get the rate down and we might — fingers crossed — do what China has done (assuming they aren't lying).
And it's not looking too bad today, on that front. The rate of increase, charted from beginning to now, is slowing. However, there may still be a long way to go.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
The government and press should emphasise the rate of increase, because that's what we need to focus on not the headline numbers, which will soon look horrifying I have no doubt. Get the rate down and we might — fingers crossed — do what China has done (assuming they aren't lying).
There has been some push on social media of flatten the curve, but I still don't people really understand exponential growth, so think well yes but we aren't in trouble until we hit x cases per day.
Really? I mean we have a criminal justice system that is creaking under a mountain of historic sex cases, one even involving a former FM. The man is dead for goodness sake. What a waste of time.
No desire to discover who actually bombed the plane?
I've no doubt at all that the Libyans were involved and that the accused were active members of the Libyan secret service at the time. Their exact role is frankly less important now. Others may have been involved as well but that does not make Libya innocent.
"Cancel everything now" is the advice. Hopefully Hancock will go at least some of the way down that path at 7pm tonight.
Highly irresponsible of Liverpool to continue with a normal game against Atletico Madrid tonight in the existing circumstances. Don't know how many Madrid fans will be arriving but sounds really dumb to me. At the very least it should be behind closed doors
Stephen Bush on the budget gets it right, I think:
It’s not really accurate to see this dramatic increase in spending as a move towards the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn or Ed Miliband, or even Tony Blair for that matter. As far as day-to-day spending on the public realm is concerned, this is a Budget that is much more austere than anything that would have been delivered by McDonnell or Ed Balls, and that is very far from what Gordon Brown delivered too.
What the Budget did differently was something entirely new – it spent large sums on infrastructure, something that no British government has ever truly done in the democratic era.
Whether all this infrastructure spending will actually happen is another matter altogether, of course. Infrastructure projects usually get heavily delayed, and often get scaled down in practice.
Follow the Chief Medical Officer is my advice, CMO says no hand shaking now so that is a no.
So the virus mutated in the last few days?? A week ago it could not be transmitted by handshaking, but now it can?
Got it. Good advice. You should perhaps tell Public Health England about this mutation, tho.
No.
A week ago it could be transmitted by handshaking but the risks were very, very low and the message was to wash your hands - but they specifically said at the time a change to the advice on handshaking could come in due course.
In due course the change on handshaking came. No mutation.
Follow the Chief Medical Officer is my advice, CMO says no hand shaking now so that is a no.
So the virus mutated in the last few days?? A week ago it could not be transmitted by handshaking, but now it can?
Got it. Good advice. You should perhaps tell Public Health England about this mutation, tho.
If 1 person in the world had the virus should we all stop shaking hands? No If 90% of the world have the virus should we all stop shaking hands? Yes Somewhere in between there is therefore a cross over point.
It is not exact or known but the job of the CMO to decide where it is. Ill take their advice gladly and with thanks for the difficult job they are doing.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
The government and press should emphasise the rate of increase, because that's what we need to focus on not the headline numbers, which will soon look horrifying I have no doubt. Get the rate down and we might — fingers crossed — do what China has done (assuming they aren't lying).
And it's not looking too bad today, on that count. The rate of increase, charted from beginning to now, is slowing. However there's still a long way to go.
Do you mean for the UK? We are not at the end of the day and already today has had the maximum number of positives reported. How have you worked out that the rate of increase is slowing?
Why isn;t this being treated on an age basis? if you are over 60 with existing health issues, stay indoors and stay away from other people.
If you're under 60 you may get ill, it may be unpleasant, but you will get over it. So carry on as normal and don't visit elderly contacts.
Different groups are at different risk of contracting the virus, different risks of serious harm from the virus, and different risk of spreading the virus. So the optimal guidance for each group should indeed be different!
I can understand the gvt wanting to sequence the messaging to get the most basic ideas across first ("wash your hands regularly and don't panic"). So far their more group-specific advice has largely been for returning - and to a more limited extent outwards -travellers and it strikes me this has been a bit vague and poorly delivered to those who need it (I remain surprised there wasn't a bigger presence at airports - while I know there was evidence against health-screening on arrival, poor communication seems to have been an issue - and guidance for people considering trips abroad was very weak). Healthcare workers are another group requiring specific advice/training and equipment and I've heard complaints on both counts.
I suspect there will be more group-specific advice shortly for the elderly and those with chronic health problems. I hope this is better delivered. As a member of a high-risk group I feel frustrated that the gvt haven't been straight with us about what we should be doing or preparing for in order to reduce our risk, since it is clear they have known the answer to that far better than we do for some time. There may be valid reasons for their timing/reticence but I would have found some additional transparency both useful and reassuring.
I remain perplexed why tighter measures haven't been implemented around Westminster given the experience of the virus spreading among the elite of France/Italy/Iran. Lots of people who meet lots of other people, including important decision makers and advisers who you really don't want to be incapacitating right now. I'd have thought cutting down on handshakes, public receptions, tourists and visitors going round the Palace etc would all be deemed relatively low-pain measures.
"Cancel everything now" is the advice. Hopefully Hancock will go at least some of the way down that path at 7pm tonight.
Highly irresponsible of Liverpool to continue with a normal game against Atletico Madrid tonight in the existing circumstances. Don't know how many Madrid fans will be arriving but sounds really dumb to me. At the very least it should be behind closed doors
I disagree. 1-0 down after the away leg which wasn't behind closed doors, entirely appropriate to have the home crowd for the second leg.
As Bill Shankly said: "Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that."
There has been some push on social media of flatten the curve, but I still don't people really understand exponential growth, so think well yes but we aren't in trouble until we hit x cases per day.
Yes but as I know you know there is a world of difference between hitting 200 new cases a day early next week, and 200 new cases a day a week later.
Follow the Chief Medical Officer is my advice, CMO says no hand shaking now so that is a no.
So the virus mutated in the last few days?? A week ago it could not be transmitted by handshaking, but now it can?
Got it. Good advice. You should perhaps tell Public Health England about this mutation, tho.
If 1 person in the world had the virus should we all stop shaking hands? No If 90% of the world have the virus should we all stop shaking hands? Yes Somewhere in between there is therefore a cross over point.
It is not exact or known but the job of the CMO to decide where it is. Ill take their advice gladly and with thanks for the difficult job they are doing.
Actually with 90% infection we might as well all shake hands because there is a strong probability the person you are shaking hands with has it too.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
The government and press should emphasise the rate of increase, because that's what we need to focus on not the headline numbers, which will soon look horrifying I have no doubt. Get the rate down and we might — fingers crossed — do what China has done (assuming they aren't lying).
And it's not looking too bad today, on that count. The rate of increase, charted from beginning to now, is slowing. However there's still a long way to go.
Do you mean for the UK? We are not at the end of the day and already today has had the maximum number of positives reported. How have you worked out that the rate of increase is slowing?
Deaths reported, aside from the overall rate of increased positives, rather than today's numbers.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
The government and press should emphasise the rate of increase, because that's what we need to focus on not the headline numbers, which will soon look horrifying I have no doubt. Get the rate down and we might — fingers crossed — do what China has done (assuming they aren't lying).
And it's not looking too bad today, on that count. The rate of increase, charted from beginning to now, is slowing. However there's still a long way to go.
Do you mean for the UK? We are not at the end of the day and already today has had the maximum number of positives reported. How have you worked out that the rate of increase is slowing?
Aside from triage, the policy wrt age should be that older people self isolate as far as possible, and no particular exhortation be addressed to those born after about 1960 other than hand-washing. The more herd immunity they build up with their functioning immune systems the better for everyone. edit: @contrarian made this point earlier, I see.
Follow the Chief Medical Officer is my advice, CMO says no hand shaking now so that is a no.
So the virus mutated in the last few days?? A week ago it could not be transmitted by handshaking, but now it can?
Got it. Good advice. You should perhaps tell Public Health England about this mutation, tho.
If 1 person in the world had the virus should we all stop shaking hands? No If 90% of the world have the virus should we all stop shaking hands? Yes Somewhere in between there is therefore a cross over point.
It is not exact or known but the job of the CMO to decide where it is. Ill take their advice gladly and with thanks for the difficult job they are doing.
I give up.
Here is my parting gift for the afternoon, a sobering but not alarmist report from an American doctor working in Italy. This is us in about two-three weeks, unless we get incredibly lucky
Has anyone seen any "official" data about corona virus links with smoking and/ or air pollution?
Or vaping?
Can't find it now but IanB2 linked or referred to a belief in China that the skew to males in deaths is entirely explained by relatively heavier smoking by Chinese men. Doubt anyone has had time to boil it down to official stats though.
PS Me: if MERS is from Saudi Arabia, that kinda screws the theory that coronaviruses don't like the heat
Blimey. I knew Trump's new Intelligence chief was supposed to be dodgy, but can you imaging what kind of person you have to be for Roger Stone to find 'too shady' ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/11/richard-grenell-smear-against-bowe-bergdahl-125157 ...In 2017, I had the chance to ask Roger Stone, Trump’s longtime political adviser—who was recently sentenced to more than three years in prison for lying to Congress and witness tampering in the Mueller investigation—what he knew about Grenell and whether anyone had tasked him to run the Bergdahl smear. Stone didn’t know. He refused to work with Grenell, he told me, because he found him “too shady.”...
Aside from triage, the policy wrt age should be that older people self isolate as far as possible, and no particular exhortation be addressed to those born after about 1960 other than hand-washing. The more herd immunity they build up with their functioning immune systems the better for everyone.
Is there any herd immunity? I thought no one was immune from it.
I wonder at what level of daily increase in cases we will start to see proper panic, not buying 100 bog rolls, I mean proper panic? 500 daily increase?
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
The government and press should emphasise the rate of increase, because that's what we need to focus on not the headline numbers, which will soon look horrifying I have no doubt. Get the rate down and we might — fingers crossed — do what China has done (assuming they aren't lying).
There has been some push on social media of flatten the curve, but I still don't people really understand exponential growth, so think well yes but we aren't in trouble until we hit x cases per day.
I suspect that is 1000 cases. The extra digit will hammer it home a little, psychologically.
Has anyone seen any "official" data about corona virus links with smoking and/ or air pollution?
Or vaping?
Can't find it now but IanB2 linked or referred to a belief in China that the skew to males in deaths is entirely explained by relatively heavier smoking by Chinese men. Doubt anyone has had time to boil it down to official stats though.
PS Me: if MERS is from Saudi Arabia, that kinda screws the theory that coronaviruses don't like the heat
Everyone: Yeah man, but it's a dry heat.
But MERS can from a hot country via camels. It was in its RNA to exist in hot climates, otherwise it would never have got off the ground.
Not saying this will be different, but it did come from a cold environment.
Re smoking...somebody posted men vs women smoking in China and disparity is nuts, something like 70% men, single digits for women.
Has anyone seen any "official" data about corona virus links with smoking and/ or air pollution?
Or vaping?
Can't find it now but IanB2 linked or referred to a belief in China that the skew to males in deaths is entirely explained by relatively heavier smoking by Chinese men. Doubt anyone has had time to boil it down to official stats though.
PS Me: if MERS is from Saudi Arabia, that kinda screws the theory that coronaviruses don't like the heat
Everyone: Yeah man, but it's a dry heat.
But MERS can from a hot country via camels. It was in its RNA to exist in hot climates, otherwise it would never have got off the ground.
Not saying this will be different, but it did come from a cold environment.
Re smoking...somebody posted men vs women smoking in China and it is something nuts like 70% men, single digits women.
Viruses like that don't like hot, sunny and humid climates. You need all 3 factors at the same time to break down the virus.
Saudi isn't humid.
However just because a virus doesn't like something doesn't mean it will eliminate it either.
Aside from triage, the policy wrt age should be that older people self isolate as far as possible, and no particular exhortation be addressed to those born after about 1960 other than hand-washing. The more herd immunity they build up with their functioning immune systems the better for everyone.
Is there any herd immunity? I thought no one was immune from it.
The idea being once it has passed through a decent % of the population.
Follow the Chief Medical Officer is my advice, CMO says no hand shaking now so that is a no.
So the virus mutated in the last few days?? A week ago it could not be transmitted by handshaking, but now it can?
Got it. Good advice. You should perhaps tell Public Health England about this mutation, tho.
If 1 person in the world had the virus should we all stop shaking hands? No If 90% of the world have the virus should we all stop shaking hands? Yes Somewhere in between there is therefore a cross over point.
It is not exact or known but the job of the CMO to decide where it is. Ill take their advice gladly and with thanks for the difficult job they are doing.
Actually with 90% infection we might as well all shake hands because there is a strong probability the person you are shaking hands with has it too.
Fair point, I should have chosen the % more carefully! The main argument still stands though. There must be a cross over point (and one coming back as you point out). The CMO may judge it correctly or incorrectly, but he has a far better chance of making a good judgement than eadric or even highly qualified academics without access to all the info and sub teams he will have reporting to him at the moment.
Comments
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237142891077697538.html
Is anyone particular upset about it? It's seemingly a big spending spree so something to cheer for most of us.
Whether it bears any relation whatsoever to the Tories' endless moralising about the debt/deficit over the past decade is a different question entirely.
But given the number of scattered cases of unknown origin, probably not.
Without a big increase in testing (I'm curious why hasn't this happened yet ?), impossible to tell.
Zero coverage in the media.
Where politicians got lost for a decade was in thinking that investment was the same as subsidy. It is not. For a decade we had people moaning about lack if stuff and the crumbling nature of what we had, yet every time someone suggested spending the right said "who will pay for it" and the left said "blame greedy elites".
This was a *good* budget. Short term relief for disruption. Medium term heavy investment to make the economy stronger. Longer term return to growth. Is anyone really arguing against money for road / rail / broadband / schools / hospitals because borrowing? Its borrowed in Sterling. Which we've just made almost free to borrow and we print. Spend now. Invest now. Benefit later.
Budget is consistent with fiscal rules in Con manifesto.
Some, though could have come much sooner rather than wait for an artificial Budget timetable.
As I've said before, I'm willing to an extent to give the government the benefit of the doubt (and I have no big gripes about the budget), but their coronavirus response just seem a bit lackadaisical.
From what I understand, this is unlike flu and does not pose any increased risk to babies in utero.
Advancing age, of course, correlates with lower survival prospects, but it's far from the only thing.
An age limit per se is pointless and unethical.
We have a budget like this, during a downturn, that is consistent with Con manifesto - and the left are gloating about the huge increase in spending!
If you're under 60 you may get ill, it may be unpleasant, but you will get over it. So carry on as normal and don't visit elderly contacts.
He will rely on a strong recovery once the virus has passed which will again hopefully mitigate any impacts from full EU withdrawal at the end of the year.
The cut in interest rates is another kick in the gonads for savers but they've had more than a decade of this. I'm also of the view there's only so much stimulus or economic methodone that can be taken before the effectiveness diminishes. At 0.25%, as you say, borrowing is cheap so we start borrowing but that borrowing has to be paid back by someone somewhere someday.
It has to be hoped the capital infrastructure projects supported by this borrowing achieve the economic growth predicted but the growth figures look pretty anaemic and that's before the impact of the virus.
No one has dismissed this epidemic.
Lots of us have doubted your predictions of 70% infection rate and millions of Brits dying on the streets.
So far, events aren’t bearing you out. Thankfully.
https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/1237743975223754752
People in the 1930s had whooping cough, diptheria and polio to deal with. Tuberculosis. And no antibiotics.
By your standards, its only amazing they ever ventured out of their houses at all.
It's going to be deeply terrible and scarring but I have learnt a lot about human psychology.
Some people just refuse to hear bad news but if you sit them down and patiently explain the situation they will listen. Posting on here, on Twitter, on any social media, the news? Much much slower in accepting information.
Some will keep arguing about the minutiae weeks later, forgetting they were wrong then and they are much more likely to be wrong now. It's what makes coming on here a blessing and a bit of a curse.
Cos at the moment, I suspect a lot of people are still looking at saying wells its still only in the 10s per day, loads more get flu, cancer etc etc etc.
And it's not as though Corbyn was going to be smart enough to explore the point.
Not so long, you were pumping Henrietta’s dodgy predictions here every day. Yesterday you admitted they were pants. Just as we told you.
Spoiler: Its not you.
I confess I've stocked up on Saucy Sauce and chicken soup.
Self isolation with horse racing and the betting account for 14 days - I may not get ill but I will suffer financially.
I am quite re-assured by the weeks events so far, some of the worst case scenarios look less likely and most people are preparing, not panicking for a potential 2-4 week period when things will largely shut down. We will cope and move on. It is unlikely to be worse than the flu of 1989 which very few remember despite it killing 30,000 in the UK alone.
Longer term we need to get growth back over 2%. A forecast for next year of 1.8% is quite punchy but it may in fact be exceeded if there is a rebound from a negative figure this year. The investment in infrastructure and science really should produce some returns. But I still have doubts.
Idiots!
https://twitter.com/julianborger/status/1237748572415762437?s=20
It’s not really accurate to see this dramatic increase in spending as a move towards the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn or Ed Miliband, or even Tony Blair for that matter. As far as day-to-day spending on the public realm is concerned, this is a Budget that is much more austere than anything that would have been delivered by McDonnell or Ed Balls, and that is very far from what Gordon Brown delivered too.
What the Budget did differently was something entirely new – it spent large sums on infrastructure, something that no British government has ever truly done in the democratic era.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2020/03/rishi-sunak-hasn-t-delivered-labour-budget-something-entirely-new
Whether all this infrastructure spending will actually happen is another matter altogether, of course. Infrastructure projects usually get heavily delayed, and often get scaled down in practice.
A week ago it could be transmitted by handshaking but the risks were very, very low and the message was to wash your hands - but they specifically said at the time a change to the advice on handshaking could come in due course.
In due course the change on handshaking came. No mutation.
If 90% of the world have the virus should we all stop shaking hands? Yes
Somewhere in between there is therefore a cross over point.
It is not exact or known but the job of the CMO to decide where it is. Ill take their advice gladly and with thanks for the difficult job they are doing.
I can understand the gvt wanting to sequence the messaging to get the most basic ideas across first ("wash your hands regularly and don't panic"). So far their more group-specific advice has largely been for returning - and to a more limited extent outwards -travellers and it strikes me this has been a bit vague and poorly delivered to those who need it (I remain surprised there wasn't a bigger presence at airports - while I know there was evidence against health-screening on arrival, poor communication seems to have been an issue - and guidance for people considering trips abroad was very weak). Healthcare workers are another group requiring specific advice/training and equipment and I've heard complaints on both counts.
I suspect there will be more group-specific advice shortly for the elderly and those with chronic health problems. I hope this is better delivered. As a member of a high-risk group I feel frustrated that the gvt haven't been straight with us about what we should be doing or preparing for in order to reduce our risk, since it is clear they have known the answer to that far better than we do for some time. There may be valid reasons for their timing/reticence but I would have found some additional transparency both useful and reassuring.
I remain perplexed why tighter measures haven't been implemented around Westminster given the experience of the virus spreading among the elite of France/Italy/Iran. Lots of people who meet lots of other people, including important decision makers and advisers who you really don't want to be incapacitating right now. I'd have thought cutting down on handshakes, public receptions, tourists and visitors going round the Palace etc would all be deemed relatively low-pain measures.
As Bill Shankly said: "Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that."
Spain: 2182 (+487)
Switzerland: 652 (+155)
Netherlands: 503 (+121)
Sweden: 477 (+122)
edit: @contrarian made this point earlier, I see.
PS Me: if MERS is from Saudi Arabia, that kinda screws the theory that coronaviruses don't like the heat
Everyone: Yeah man, but it's a dry heat.
I knew Trump's new Intelligence chief was supposed to be dodgy, but can you imaging what kind of person you have to be for Roger Stone to find 'too shady' ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/11/richard-grenell-smear-against-bowe-bergdahl-125157
...In 2017, I had the chance to ask Roger Stone, Trump’s longtime political adviser—who was recently sentenced to more than three years in prison for lying to Congress and witness tampering in the Mueller investigation—what he knew about Grenell and whether anyone had tasked him to run the Bergdahl smear. Stone didn’t know. He refused to work with Grenell, he told me, because he found him “too shady.”...
Not saying this will be different, but it did come from a cold environment.
Re smoking...somebody posted men vs women smoking in China and disparity is nuts, something like 70% men, single digits for women.
Saudi isn't humid.
However just because a virus doesn't like something doesn't mean it will eliminate it either.
Why shutting down schools and unis is an absurdly INSANE idea.