It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
I think it not particularly controversial that being a little bit of a bastard can be of importance and assistnace in being a government or state leader, though less now than used to be the case. It is probably hard to conclude how much bastardry is enough, in what areas, before the cost of it exceeds any benefits, and whether the more important qualities (intellect, judgement etc) exist at all.
Of all the appaling things I have heard come from Trump's mouth, this is one of the most disgraceful things I have ever heard from potitician in my lifetime.
In other words he doesn't care if people on the ship get ill or die, he doesn't want them being counted as US statistics.
I heard him say that. He disgusts me
He is a not very bright man incapable of empathy. The disgrace and disgust should be equally directed at the many, much more capable people who have allowed him to become President and are still cheering him on.
There remain several on this site sadly.
Are there?
Certainly but few have the guts to come out and say it outright.
It remains a pretty shocking indictment of the Dems that they have put up unelectable candidates twice on a Buggins’ Turn principle thereby handing power to this utter lunatic.
Neither Hillary nor Biden are unelectable, Hillary won the popular vote and Biden does best against Trump in most head to head polling, Sanders might be unelectable but not Biden
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
Indeed, it’s the stupidity that’s more worrying, but as someone else said, people get the politicians they deserve, and the Americans certainly deserve him.
They managed to bring the R0 down from 3.8 to 0.3 after the lockdown.
The lockdown included:
1) Closing of all public spaces. 2) Stopping of public transport, taxis, entertainment. 3) Mandatory wearing of face masks. 4) Universal and strict stay-at-home policy for all residents. 5) Centralised quarantine rather than at-home quarantine.
The last point seemed to be quite important as it prevented within-household infection and spread when members go out shopping etc.
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
Indeed, it’s the stupidity that’s more worrying, but as someone else said, people get the politicians they deserve, and the Americans certainly deserve him.
Nixon was the brightest President last century, Reagan one of the least intellectual but Reagan was a far more successful President than Nixon
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
I think it not particularly controversial that being a little bit of a bastard can be of importance and assistnace in being a government or state leader, though less now than used to be the case. It is probably hard to conclude how much bastardry is enough, in what areas, before the cost of it exceeds any benefits, and whether the more important qualities (intellect, judgement etc) exist at all.
Bush Senior probably had about the right level of bastardry, but it didn't help him get a second term.
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
I think it not particularly controversial that being a little bit of a bastard can be of importance and assistnace in being a government or state leader, though less now than used to be the case. It is probably hard to conclude how much bastardry is enough, in what areas, before the cost of it exceeds any benefits, and whether the more important qualities (intellect, judgement etc) exist at all.
Bush Senior probably had about the right level of bastardry, but it didn't help him get a second term.
Certainly its not enough on its own. Though I was thinking more of usefulness as a general skill than usefulness in getting (re)elected.
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
I think it not particularly controversial that being a little bit of a bastard can be of importance and assistnace in being a government or state leader, though less now than used to be the case. It is probably hard to conclude how much bastardry is enough, in what areas, before the cost of it exceeds any benefits, and whether the more important qualities (intellect, judgement etc) exist at all.
Bush Senior probably had about the right level of bastardry, but it didn't help him get a second term.
It is however fair to point out - before our resident wingnut in chief does - that as a third term president he faced a tall order to win at all. Since the end of the Republican hegemony in 1932 only two presidents have won even one term after their predecessor served two or more terms for the same party - Truman and Bush.
The Euro is the silver bullet for the stay out campaign should it ever be needed. Not very many will vote to go back in now that our opt out of the Euro is gone. It doesn't matter if growth is 2.1% per year instead of a hypothetical 2.3% per year.
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
Indeed, it’s the stupidity that’s more worrying, but as someone else said, people get the politicians they deserve, and the Americans certainly deserve him.
Nixon was the brightest President last century, Reagan one of the least intellectual but Reagan was a far more successful President than Nixon
Sans Watergate, is Nixon seen as an unsuccessful President?
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
I think it not particularly controversial that being a little bit of a bastard can be of importance and assistnace in being a government or state leader, though less now than used to be the case. It is probably hard to conclude how much bastardry is enough, in what areas, before the cost of it exceeds any benefits, and whether the more important qualities (intellect, judgement etc) exist at all.
Bush Senior probably had about the right level of bastardry, but it didn't help him get a second term.
Certainly its not enough on its own. Though I was thinking more of usefulness as a general skill than usefulness in getting (re)elected.
Not sure bastardry is the right measure - ruthlessness when needed is, I think, the key. Be a nice human, but be able to put that aside when needed in pursuit of the greater good. Otherwise, every anecdote that pulls on the heartstring will derail hard but necessary policies and actions.
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
I think it not particularly controversial that being a little bit of a bastard can be of importance and assistnace in being a government or state leader, though less now than used to be the case. It is probably hard to conclude how much bastardry is enough, in what areas, before the cost of it exceeds any benefits, and whether the more important qualities (intellect, judgement etc) exist at all.
Bush Senior probably had about the right level of bastardry, but it didn't help him get a second term.
Certainly its not enough on its own. Though I was thinking more of usefulness as a general skill than usefulness in getting (re)elected.
Not sure bastardry is the right measure - ruthlessness when needed is, I think, the key. Be a nice human, but be able to put that aside when needed in pursuit of the greater good. Otherwise, every anecdote that pulls on the heartstring will derail hard but necessary policies and actions.
You're probably right. But bastardry sounds a bit cooler than ruthlessness, a certain cold detachment at necessary moments.
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
Indeed, it’s the stupidity that’s more worrying, but as someone else said, people get the politicians they deserve, and the Americans certainly deserve him.
Nixon was the brightest President last century, Reagan one of the least intellectual but Reagan was a far more successful President than Nixon
Sans Watergate, is Nixon seen as an unsuccessful President?
Yes.
And that is not forgetting desegregation, economic stabilisation, ultimate withdrawal from Vietnam, detente with China and the initiation of SALT.
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
I would not go so far, but I do think there is a tendency to infantilise the average voter. While hindsight is a wonderful thing, I don't think people should get a pass on everything. For instance, I voted Leave and knew there would be risks from that. I could and do argue how much shit I should get if things go badly with Brexit, but I cannot simply blame it all on the politicians since putting it in their hands was one of the risks.
I agree your general point. Voting is IMO akin to a contract and therefore to be valid it must be between consenting adults. You have to bring a certain level of awareness to it. I would rather people did not vote if they are not doing that.
Trump? I require a different level of distressed and outraged language when discussing the fact that this individual holds the highest elected office on the planet. I can write a thousand words as to why but for here and now let me just say this. It is quite simply wrong. It's wrong.
It is of course true that the two most honourable and decent men to be President in the twentieth century were Carter and Hoover. They were also unarguably two of the three most disastrous presidents of the twentieth century.
However, since Nixon was their near-exact counterpart on the other side and he would hardly be considered an unqualified success, I don’t think we can draw conclusions from this.
Indeed, it’s the stupidity that’s more worrying, but as someone else said, people get the politicians they deserve, and the Americans certainly deserve him.
Nixon was the brightest President last century, Reagan one of the least intellectual but Reagan was a far more successful President than Nixon
Sans Watergate, is Nixon seen as an unsuccessful President?
Yes.
And that is not forgetting desegregation, economic stabilisation, ultimate withdrawal from Vietnam, detente with China and the initiation of SALT.
For me, he was the most successful post-War president in foreign policy terms save Truman.
Of all the appaling things I have heard come from Trump's mouth, this is one of the most disgraceful things I have ever heard from potitician in my lifetime.
In other words he doesn't care if people on the ship get ill or die, he doesn't want them being counted as US statistics.
I heard him say that. He disgusts me
They say we get the politicians we deserve and Americans chose Trump.
Likewise he disgusts me., it goes beyond the usual political divides. I'm no fan of Johnson but he is a far more decent human being than Trump will ever be.
Jimmy Carter is probably the most recent human being to hold the office of President in the last 50 years and was also one of the worst presidents.
Trump is a product of fears of globalisation and immigration as much as Brexit was, a symptom not a cause
Sorry would not have bought that excuse for electing Trump four years ago and I certainly don't buy it now. Anyone who votes for Trump in November knows exactly the type of person they are giving power to.
Unfortunately, there is a large mass of Republican voters who are now Trump worshippers, who seem to have been dazzled and captivated by his personality. The elite of GOP, who should know better, except Romney, have allowed this to continue without a peep of protest.
America is in very dangerous waters, and I, for one, will be rooting for Biden and I don't care how old he is.
US Government going to try and hide the COVID-19 statistics within the flu ones?
If they manage to then everyone who said it was just a bit worse than the flu would have been right. If you think it's an order of magnitude worse than the flu then they surely won't be able to.
Wasn't support for euro membership supposed to surge or something?
If the EU wants us back it will have to give up on the euro being an aspect of membership.
Not a difficult concession for the EU if it was so minded, given that several existing EU member states are remaining outside the Euro indefinitely.
Leavers seem much more interested in a hypothetical poll about Euro membership than a poll showing almost no change in views on EU membership despite their endless touting of the theory that rejoin would be a much harder sell than remain. Can’t imagine why.
Jimmy Carter is probably the most recent human being to hold the office of President in the last 50 years and was also one of the worst presidents.
Trump is a product of fears of globalisation and immigration as much as Brexit was, a symptom not a cause
Symptom, yes, but a cause too - of much unpleasantness and strife. And without even the mitigating factor of basic competence. Has there ever been a national leader so out of his depth?
Yet the article quotes the expert as saying numbers are appearing to roughly double each week. This fits with the tweet I posted earlier saying doubles every six days.
By my reckoning with 204 today, then by Easter we have ≈ 13,000.
Wasn't support for euro membership supposed to surge or something?
If the EU wants us back it will have to give up on the euro being an aspect of membership.
Not a difficult concession for the EU if it was so minded, given that several existing EU member states are remaining outside the Euro indefinitely.
Leavers seem much more interested in a hypothetical poll about Euro membership than a poll showing almost no change in views on EU membership despite their endless touting of the theory that rejoin would be a much harder sell than remain. Can’t imagine why.
That's the poll on EU membership that showed remain/rejoin in retreat?
Wasn't support for euro membership supposed to surge or something?
If the EU wants us back it will have to give up on the euro being an aspect of membership.
Not a difficult concession for the EU if it was so minded, given that several existing EU member states are remaining outside the Euro indefinitely.
Leavers seem much more interested in a hypothetical poll about Euro membership than a poll showing almost no change in views on EU membership despite their endless touting of the theory that rejoin would be a much harder sell than remain. Can’t imagine why.
That's the poll on EU membership that showed remain/rejoin in retreat?
*innocent face*
It’s not exactly much of a shift, more of a flicker. If I were a Leaver, I’d be shuddering at it.
Unfortunately, there is a large mass of Republican voters who are now Trump worshippers, who seem to have been dazzled and captivated by his personality. The elite of GOP, who should know better, except Romney, have allowed this to continue without a peep of protest.
America is in very dangerous waters, and I, for one, will be rooting for Biden and I don't care how old he is.
Yes, pity the Dem opponent is not a little more inspiring but he HAS to win.
Wasn't support for euro membership supposed to surge or something?
If the EU wants us back it will have to give up on the euro being an aspect of membership.
Not a difficult concession for the EU if it was so minded, given that several existing EU member states are remaining outside the Euro indefinitely.
Leavers seem much more interested in a hypothetical poll about Euro membership than a poll showing almost no change in views on EU membership despite their endless touting of the theory that rejoin would be a much harder sell than remain. Can’t imagine why.
That's the poll on EU membership that showed remain/rejoin in retreat?
*innocent face*
It’s not exactly much of a shift, more of a flicker. If I were a Leaver, I’d be shuddering at it.
Looks significant given the margin of error on these things.
Wasn't support for euro membership supposed to surge or something?
If the EU wants us back it will have to give up on the euro being an aspect of membership.
Not a difficult concession for the EU if it was so minded, given that several existing EU member states are remaining outside the Euro indefinitely.
Leavers seem much more interested in a hypothetical poll about Euro membership than a poll showing almost no change in views on EU membership despite their endless touting of the theory that rejoin would be a much harder sell than remain. Can’t imagine why.
That's the poll on EU membership that showed remain/rejoin in retreat?
*innocent face*
It’s not exactly much of a shift, more of a flicker. If I were a Leaver, I’d be shuddering at it.
If you think the Leave project is more about fomenting a never-ending culture war so that your side can keep hold of power, perpetual division is a feature, not a bug.
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"If the Remaniac Liberal Elite hadn't delayed Brexit so much we'd have been able to start spending that £350m/week earlier, and many fewer people would have died."
Don't assume that the predominant narrative that forms is the one that happens to align with your beliefs.
Unfortunately, there is a large mass of Republican voters who are now Trump worshippers, who seem to have been dazzled and captivated by his personality. The elite of GOP, who should know better, except Romney, have allowed this to continue without a peep of protest.
America is in very dangerous waters, and I, for one, will be rooting for Biden and I don't care how old he is.
Yes, pity the Dem opponent is not a little more inspiring but he HAS to win.
And he surely will.
Biden might not even know what the White House is by November.....
Wasn't support for euro membership supposed to surge or something?
If the EU wants us back it will have to give up on the euro being an aspect of membership.
Not a difficult concession for the EU if it was so minded, given that several existing EU member states are remaining outside the Euro indefinitely.
Leavers seem much more interested in a hypothetical poll about Euro membership than a poll showing almost no change in views on EU membership despite their endless touting of the theory that rejoin would be a much harder sell than remain. Can’t imagine why.
That's the poll on EU membership that showed remain/rejoin in retreat?
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
Assuming WTO terms Brexit still produces a growing economy and hefty tax revenues to provide more money for the NHS of course
When a single daily landing slot is being sold on a secondary market for $27m, does that not give the slightest bit of a hint to those in charge that they should be expanding the number of slots available?
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
Wasn't support for euro membership supposed to surge or something?
If the EU wants us back it will have to give up on the euro being an aspect of membership.
Not a difficult concession for the EU if it was so minded, given that several existing EU member states are remaining outside the Euro indefinitely.
Leavers seem much more interested in a hypothetical poll about Euro membership than a poll showing almost no change in views on EU membership despite their endless touting of the theory that rejoin would be a much harder sell than remain. Can’t imagine why.
That's the poll on EU membership that showed remain/rejoin in retreat?
US Government going to try and hide the COVID-19 statistics within the flu ones?
I think this is far more likely to be Ohio public health officials tacitly warning that COVID responses should not be funded by taking away from existing medical budgets but should be new money, as flu is still a serious thing.
That is a very frequent public health response in the US because congress is alway funding emergency responses by taking away from existing budgets. An ongoing and recurring problem
PS Most public health officials, even in red states, tend to lean liberal and are highly unlikely willingly and unbidden to do the Trump Administration's bidding.
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
US Government going to try and hide the COVID-19 statistics within the flu ones?
I think this is far more likely to be Ohio public health officials tacitly warning that COVID responses should not be funded by taking away from existing medical budgets but should be new money, as flu is still a serious thing.
That is a very frequent public health response in the US because congress is alway funding emergency responses by taking away from existing budgets. An ongoing and recurring problem
Potentially, of note is that Ohio have done 0 (zero) tests for Coronavirus.
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
We don't rejoin as the UK.
We will never rejoin the EU with the Euro and certainly not as England alone given it is more pro Leave and pro Brexit than the UK as a whole
Does anyone have any information about whether it might become necessary to disinfect fruit and vegetables during the outbreak and what you'd use that would kill the virus but not poision you?
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
We don't rejoin as the UK.
Then it still doesn't make sense, because we wouldn't be sending the money in the first place.
Does anyone have any information about whether it might become necessary to disinfect fruit and vegetables during the outbreak and what you'd use that would kill the virus but not poision you?
No, but I did read that the virus is believed to be killed by normal cooking temperatures.
Best guess is doubling every 7-10 days according to those leaked slides in BusinessInsider.
I've seen most epidemiologists using 5-6. 10 days doesn't seem credible given the late 2019 introduction. The rest of the numbers they used were bullish to the point of ridiculousness. No country in the world is reporting 1% of patients in ICU or CFR of 0.5%.
Best guess is doubling every 7-10 days according to those leaked slides in BusinessInsider.
There have been plenty of academic studies giving various answers. But it really does depend on how much people modify their behaviour - or are forced to modify it. In China the outbreak was reversed and (relatively speaking) is now almost extinct. It may be that it could be reversed with measures that weren't so draconian. Or it can probably be slowed considerably.
But considering a few minutes ago I saw a man coughing virtually in his workmate's face, I sometimes wonder.
Prof Sheila Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“Since UK’s cumulative number of positive cases is currently doubling roughly every 2 days, it will be soon be highly informative to offer additional reporting - but a week in arrears - by sample-date and by the reason-for-testing.
So, we are doubling every 2 days - not the six days mentioned earlier and not the 7-10 the US are quoting at the moment.
Be interesting, to know how this has changed from before the referendum, and a year ago.
It would be interesting to see how leavers and remainers compare. I voted Leave but would definitely say British and European.
I voted Remain and would also say British and European but opposed to the single currency
As a raving Leaver I would say I'm European but not EUian. Europe's a big and culturally diverse continent. I don't think it's all that helpful to conflate "Europe" and "the EU". There's no point denying I speak a Germanic-family language, listen to music whose tonal system originated in ancient Greece, and grew up in a culture of ideas more heavily influenced by European classical, Renaisance, Reformation and Enlightenment figures than by any of China's Hundred Schools of Thought or by either the āstika or nāstika traditions of India. I just can't see why, either in practice or in principle, that should commit me to embracing a very particular administrative-bureaucratic vision of how (not all, but large parts of primarily Western and Central) Europe should be organised and led.
To expand on that parenthetic point - the way EU leaders tend to claim to "speak for Europe", that the EU itself represents the apex of European values, that the adjective for the EU is often "European", all strike me as somewhat lazy, and a bit off, really. There's a lofty Pan-Europeanism which envisages itself as very much Peace-To-All, an intrinsically good universalist force of light in a dark world. The flip side of that position is it implicitly casts hold-outs like the Swiss, Norwegians or Icelanders as regressive silly-billies (maybe even fully-signed up members of the forces of chaos and darkness) for failing to cave in and relinquish their hard-won sovereignty, and accept that their future and destiny lies in Brussels and Strasbourg and Frankfurt not in Bern or Oslo or Reykjavik.
I have a similar disdain for this use of "European" as some Latin Americans do for the adjective "American" standing for what they would properly call "estadounidense" ("United Statesian"), which use also carries connotations of cultural, political or geographic supremacy - and unpleasant memories of freebooters and filibusters attempting to fulfil the Manifest Destiny of their homeland through expansionism at the point of a gun. EU expansionism at referendum-point and on the promise of greater trade is far more palatable, but some of its underlying assumptions (that it is inherently a force for good, that it represents and inevitably will eventually encompass the whole of Europe, that its model is the model par excellence for European or general international cooperation, that all Europeans share the same values and so on) would benefit from some careful, critical self-reassessment. I wonder if Brexit will provoke such.
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
We don't rejoin as the UK.
We will never rejoin the EU with the Euro and certainly not as England alone given it is more pro Leave and pro Brexit than the UK as a whole
England used to be more pro-EU than the rest of the UK. There's no reason why it couldn't be again.
Prof Sheila Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“Since UK’s cumulative number of positive cases is currently doubling roughly every 2 days, it will be soon be highly informative to offer additional reporting - but a week in arrears - by sample-date and by the reason-for-testing.
So, we are doubling every 2 days - not the six days mentioned earlier and not the 7-10 the US are quoting at the moment.
It could be that we're finding them that quickly, but they're growing a bit slower. If it was doubling every two days then we're a bit screwed.
We are nearly bottom of the league on beds per capita. I was surprised when I saw the figures. Anything like the worst case forecast Covid peak will test the NHS to destruction.
Prof Sheila Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“Since UK’s cumulative number of positive cases is currently doubling roughly every 2 days, it will be soon be highly informative to offer additional reporting - but a week in arrears - by sample-date and by the reason-for-testing.
So, we are doubling every 2 days - not the six days mentioned earlier and not the 7-10 the US are quoting at the moment.
I think to get anything useful out of these figures you'd need to separate out imported cases for a start, which until a few days ago were accounting for nearly all the new cases in the UK.
But given that there is undetected propagation going on, the real question is how much of it the testing is picking up. At some point random testing would become more informative. But I don't think these daily figures are telling us much. In Italy it's being suggested they may be too small by at least an order of magnitude. In Iran, heaven only knows.
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
We don't rejoin as the UK.
We will never rejoin the EU with the Euro and certainly not as England alone given it is more pro Leave and pro Brexit than the UK as a whole
England used to be more pro-EU than the rest of the UK. There's no reason why it couldn't be again.
No it didn't as the EU didn't exist, it was more pro-EEC. Big difference.
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
We don't rejoin as the UK.
We will never rejoin the EU with the Euro and certainly not as England alone given it is more pro Leave and pro Brexit than the UK as a whole
England used to be more pro-EU than the rest of the UK. There's no reason why it couldn't be again.
Joining the Common Market is a totally different kettle of fish to joining a Federal EU superstate. Had it stayed a Common Market we would never have voted to Leave.
At most the UK will rejoin the single market, not the full EU and certainly England will never vote to join a Federal EU
Does anyone have any information about whether it might become necessary to disinfect fruit and vegetables during the outbreak and what you'd use that would kill the virus but not poision you?
No, but I did read that the virus is believed to be killed by normal cooking temperatures.
And the dishwasher for childrens toys but maybe not fruit and veg !!!!
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
We don't rejoin as the UK.
We will never rejoin the EU with the Euro and certainly not as England alone given it is more pro Leave and pro Brexit than the UK as a whole
England used to be more pro-EU than the rest of the UK. There's no reason why it couldn't be again.
No it didn't as the EU didn't exist, it was more pro-EEC. Big difference.
It's not anything like as big a difference as Eurosceptics like to pretend. The expansion of the union was far more significant than its deepening in changing attitudes to it.
Prof Sheila Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“Since UK’s cumulative number of positive cases is currently doubling roughly every 2 days, it will be soon be highly informative to offer additional reporting - but a week in arrears - by sample-date and by the reason-for-testing.
So, we are doubling every 2 days - not the six days mentioned earlier and not the 7-10 the US are quoting at the moment.
It could be that we're finding them that quickly, but they're growing a bit slower. If it was doubling every two days then we're a bit screwed.
The government seems to be acting on the assumption that sooner or later this will spread through a substantial percentage of the population, be it 80%, 50%, 30% or whatever. If that happens, realistically it will be self-medication for all but a very few. Whether the lack of intensive care beds will make that much difference I'm not sure. The numbers from China suggest that maybe 75% of those identified as critically ill did eventually succumb, and that number is still increasing. The numbers I've seen from Italy seem essentially similar.
So the Premier League banned the pre-game 'fairplay' handshakes, only for... all the players to embrace and shake hands at the end of the match! What was the point of that? Or is the point that they don't want to 'enforce' handshakes on the players, but what the players choose to do voluntarily is up to them?
We are nearly bottom of the league on beds per capita. I was surprised when I saw the figures. Anything like the worst case forecast Covid peak will test the NHS to destruction.
One of the biggest advantages of a centralised health system is that it’s easier to co-ordinate responses to crises and epidemics, when compared to more decentralised systems. Everyone involved is working for the same organisation, there’s little localised bureaucracy to get in the way and no-one’s arguing at the micro level about who pays for stuff. .
One of the biggest disadvantages of the centralised system, is that there’s much less spare capacity in the system - we will start to see low-level disruption (routine operations cancelled etc) and notable, visable intervention (military field hospitals in car parks etc) sooner than will be the case elsewhere.
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
We don't rejoin as the UK.
We will never rejoin the EU with the Euro and certainly not as England alone given it is more pro Leave and pro Brexit than the UK as a whole
England used to be more pro-EU than the rest of the UK. There's no reason why it couldn't be again.
Joining the Common Market is a totally different kettle of fish to joining a Federal EU superstate. Had it stayed a Common Market we would never have voted to Leave.
At most the UK will rejoin the single market, not the full EU and certainly England will never vote to join a Federal EU
Yawn. Your absolutism is ridiculous.
Even 5 years ago people would have said that County Durham would never vote Tory again.
Prof Sheila Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“Since UK’s cumulative number of positive cases is currently doubling roughly every 2 days, it will be soon be highly informative to offer additional reporting - but a week in arrears - by sample-date and by the reason-for-testing.
So, we are doubling every 2 days - not the six days mentioned earlier and not the 7-10 the US are quoting at the moment.
It could be that we're finding them that quickly, but they're growing a bit slower. If it was doubling every two days then we're a bit screwed.
The government seems to be acting on the assumption that sooner or later this will spread through a substantial percentage of the population, be it 80%, 50%, 30% or whatever. If that happens, realistically it will be self-medication for all but a very few. Whether the lack of intensive care beds will make that much difference I'm not sure. The numbers from China suggest that maybe 75% of those identified as critically ill did eventually succumb, and that number is still increasing. The numbers I've seen from Italy seem essentially similar.
The availability of intensive care beds could make a difference between an average death rate of 3% and a death rate of 10% or so though for those who do get coronavirus
It shows they should scrap rejoin the EU and stick to rejoin the single market once the transition period ends, as Starmer will likely do anyway
And I'm sure he'll get the EU to confirm the cost and the precise terms that will require of us before promoting such a policy....
No? You surprise me......
Compared to a few years of likely WTO terms by the time of the general election, the question will be if the cost is greater sticking to hard Brexit with Boris or shifting to a softer Brexit and rejoining the EEA and EFTA with Starmer
"Which hospitals are you going to close to pay for the annual fees, Sir Keith?"
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
"We're spending an extra £350mn/week on the NHS, let's send it to Brussels instead".
"We spend £350m a week on Northern Ireland. Let's give it to Brussels instead."
Not sure I follow the logic? If we re-join the EU, Northern Ireland leaves?
We don't rejoin as the UK.
We will never rejoin the EU with the Euro and certainly not as England alone given it is more pro Leave and pro Brexit than the UK as a whole
England used to be more pro-EU than the rest of the UK. There's no reason why it couldn't be again.
No it didn't as the EU didn't exist, it was more pro-EEC. Big difference.
It's not anything like as big a difference as Eurosceptics like to pretend. The expansion of the union was far more significant than its deepening in changing attitudes to it.
It was a huge difference, it made the difference between a trading block and a Federal EU superstate with its own President, currency and armed forces.
Comments
The rest solidly British (and/or Welsh/Scottish/English etc) which shows just how hard rejoin will be.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1.full.pdf+html
They managed to bring the R0 down from 3.8 to 0.3 after the lockdown.
The lockdown included:
1) Closing of all public spaces.
2) Stopping of public transport, taxis, entertainment.
3) Mandatory wearing of face masks.
4) Universal and strict stay-at-home policy for all residents.
5) Centralised quarantine rather than at-home quarantine.
The last point seemed to be quite important as it prevented within-household infection and spread when members go out shopping etc.
Some ideas for us at least.
A better play for Starmer (and possibly popular) would be common market 2.0 with 50% weighted votes with the UK as an associate member.
Increases today in Germany, France, Spain and UK all not too bad.
And that is not forgetting desegregation, economic stabilisation, ultimate withdrawal from Vietnam, detente with China and the initiation of SALT.
No? You surprise me......
Yes to Devolution 50.3%
No to Devolution 49.7%
Trump? I require a different level of distressed and outraged language when discussing the fact that this individual holds the highest elected office on the planet. I can write a thousand words as to why but for here and now let me just say this. It is quite simply wrong. It's wrong.
America is in very dangerous waters, and I, for one, will be rooting for Biden and I don't care how old he is.
It is likely EEA with Starmer or WTO terms with Boris now Brexit has been done
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1236311391331667969?s=20
Leavers seem much more interested in a hypothetical poll about Euro membership than a poll showing almost no change in views on EU membership despite their endless touting of the theory that rejoin would be a much harder sell than remain. Can’t imagine why.
Truly fabulous typo btw.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8086081/Five-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-Britain-bringing-total-number-infections-169.html
Yet the article quotes the expert as saying numbers are appearing to roughly double each week. This fits with the tweet I posted earlier saying doubles every six days.
By my reckoning with 204 today, then by Easter we have ≈ 13,000.
Not the peak.
*innocent face*
And he surely will.
America comes out swinging......
That is going to play well after Covid-19....
Don't assume that the predominant narrative that forms is the one that happens to align with your beliefs.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13077871.snp-voters-fear-euro-entry/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51714498
That is a very frequent public health response in the US because congress is alway funding emergency responses by taking away from existing budgets. An ongoing and recurring problem
PS Most public health officials, even in red states, tend to lean liberal and are highly unlikely willingly and unbidden to do the Trump Administration's bidding.
But considering a few minutes ago I saw a man coughing virtually in his workmate's face, I sometimes wonder.
Prof Sheila Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“Since UK’s cumulative number of positive cases is currently doubling roughly every 2 days, it will be soon be highly informative to offer additional reporting - but a week in arrears - by sample-date and by the reason-for-testing.
So, we are doubling every 2 days - not the six days mentioned earlier and not the 7-10 the US are quoting at the moment.
To expand on that parenthetic point - the way EU leaders tend to claim to "speak for Europe", that the EU itself represents the apex of European values, that the adjective for the EU is often "European", all strike me as somewhat lazy, and a bit off, really. There's a lofty Pan-Europeanism which envisages itself as very much Peace-To-All, an intrinsically good universalist force of light in a dark world. The flip side of that position is it implicitly casts hold-outs like the Swiss, Norwegians or Icelanders as regressive silly-billies (maybe even fully-signed up members of the forces of chaos and darkness) for failing to cave in and relinquish their hard-won sovereignty, and accept that their future and destiny lies in Brussels and Strasbourg and Frankfurt not in Bern or Oslo or Reykjavik.
I have a similar disdain for this use of "European" as some Latin Americans do for the adjective "American" standing for what they would properly call "estadounidense" ("United Statesian"), which use also carries connotations of cultural, political or geographic supremacy - and unpleasant memories of freebooters and filibusters attempting to fulfil the Manifest Destiny of their homeland through expansionism at the point of a gun. EU expansionism at referendum-point and on the promise of greater trade is far more palatable, but some of its underlying assumptions (that it is inherently a force for good, that it represents and inevitably will eventually encompass the whole of Europe, that its model is the model par excellence for European or general international cooperation, that all Europeans share the same values and so on) would benefit from some careful, critical self-reassessment. I wonder if Brexit will provoke such.
But given that there is undetected propagation going on, the real question is how much of it the testing is picking up. At some point random testing would become more informative. But I don't think these daily figures are telling us much. In Italy it's being suggested they may be too small by at least an order of magnitude. In Iran, heaven only knows.
That completely messes up my spreadsheet of the under-round market.
At most the UK will rejoin the single market, not the full EU and certainly England will never vote to join a Federal EU
The rules are different for membership of each.
One of the biggest disadvantages of the centralised system, is that there’s much less spare capacity in the system - we will start to see low-level disruption (routine operations cancelled etc) and notable, visable intervention (military field hospitals in car parks etc) sooner than will be the case elsewhere.
Even 5 years ago people would have said that County Durham would never vote Tory again.
EFTA is now closer to the old EEC than the EU is