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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson’s tip for Dem running mate: Julian Castro at 25/1
US Vice Presidents have four main jobs.
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https://twitter.com/tony_zy/status/1236139704627728385
For the same reason I think he picks an experienced politician without unpopular positions. I can just about see how Warren might help make up with the left but it wouldn't help much with the unreconcilable Bernie bros so better to play it safe.
I'd take the 6/1 on KLOBUCHAR just seeing how perky she seemed right after she endorsed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-51646140
Love it!
To become President, Biden needs to pick up something further afield.
Arizona?
Florida?
Pennsylvania?
Ohio?
Of the next tranche of states, I reckon Arizona is probably the easiest.
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1236156426973782017
If you come to me and say "Robert, our plan to sell ice to eskimos didn't work because x, we need to reconsider," that's good. You are dealing with the world as it is, not how you'd like it to be.
On the other hand, if you say "Now, I know sales to eskimos look a little disappointing, but we think we just need to tweek the ice formula a bit..." (and I'm stupid enough to believe you) then I will lose a lot of money.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/yyJBR
Maybe say Iowa's in the bag too, and there's also Omaha, but it seems a bit dicey. Also Arizona has a GOP governor, so they may not let the Democrats vote.
I'm guessing the kind of things you have to do to be confident of getting Michigan are similar to the things you have to do to have a go at Pennsylvania, so optimizing for that feels like the path of least resistance.
(None of this takes away from Catherine Cortez Masto being a good spot though, aside from the boxes ticked she seems competent but also kind of fresh and interesting, Biden could do with a little bit of freshness on his ticket.)
Trump's stupidity is seemingly boundless
Biden should pick whoever presents the most reassuring credible face to the public on the health crisis.
Only advisory advice, of course, but it is hard to see how this turns into a good news outcome for either US jobs or the domestic US travel industry. The people with the time to travel around the US that I met on my journey last autumn were predominantly over 60. Trump isn’t on message at all.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/13/donald-trump-positive-thinking-215704
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1236181171119194112?s=20
iirc The Power of Positive Thinking, in an ironic foreword, says the author never imagined it would sell so many copies.
Biden polls well with African Americans, perhaps less so with Hispanics, but that is a very diverse group. Mexican Americans are quite distinct politically from Cuban Americans or Puerto Ricans. Women also tilt Dem already.
While Klobuchar is my choice, I think the odds too short. I agree Castro has some value, but have also put the price of a pint on Sherod Brown at 60/1 and John Hickenlooper. Both have a certain solidity that may play well in the Flyover states, and also on O'Rouke.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-51778152
Three positives out of the millions of people in Egypt, and those on a Nile cruise would have had next to no close contact with ordinary Egyptians beyond the crew. This doesn’t compute as a credible story.
These Americans were travelling in groups, and surely caught it together on the airplane journey to or from their holiday? Either somebody on the plane was a carrier (and one thinks of the aircrew also) or the virus is surviving for longer than expected on the cool hard surfaces inside an airconditioned airplane. The turnaround times for planes nowadays are often so tight that they don’t get cleaned properly, nor warm up to outside air temperature.
There are far too many people coming back from travel destinations who subsequently test positive to be credible against the tiny numbers of carriers in these destinations. Surely it is being on the aircraft that is the risk?
Increasingly I feel he has blown it. His stupid misplaced positive thinking (see below) is completely at variance with the gravity of what's going on and has the potential to make the US as bad as Iran in terms of not dealing with this.
It's a timebomb. Of all the countries the world should be putting into isolation, it's the US.
Donald Trump can win the Afghanistan War in a week it seems....
No idea about the VP, but on dealing with reality I encountered a tweet recently that got some reactions. It's since been deleted, but it was by some professor or other about how in 1630 there was a plague in Venice, but thanks to prayer and positive thinking it was gone by 1631. A few of the comments did point out that tens of thousands of people died...
F1: Perez all the way down to 67 in Oz (was 151 not so long ago) and Stroll's now shorter than Sainz, so the market clearly thinks that McLaren will be leapfrogged by Racing Point this year.
The thing that strikes me most, however, is that it reminds me of Black Wednesday. It occurred on 16th September 1992, 5 months after John Major won a surprise victory. The events of that week in September effectively ended the Conservatives' long reign of power. And, contrary to popular opinion, it wasn't entirely their fault. The events would have still hit Labour if Kinnock had won the election. Okay, the attempt to hold off the inevitable through mega high interest rate spikes was cack-handed, but the ejection from the ERM was the only route out of the disaster. Ironically that more than anything probably paved the way for the Cool Britannia boom years.
We now have another external event that is going to have an even greater economic and visceral impact on this country. It's outside of the Gov't making and outside of their control. Events, as MacMillan once pointed out, are the arbiter of political success or failure. True, this time around Boris enjoys a much larger majority than Major. But ultimately, if this goes as pear-shaped as seems on the cards then it doesn't matter how great Boris is, he and they will still get the subliminal blame at the ballot box.
The Conservatives never recovered from the loss of competence surrounding Black Wednesday.
I wonder if the same may prove true of the new Black Death?
In which case the US has an additional challenge given the volume of its domestic aviation market.
https://twitter.com/YangeHan/status/1235866453028438019?s=19
Maybe there are aircrew - who being mostly young and fit are more likely to be asymptomatic or mild symptom carriers - who are unknowingly also superspreaders?
Truth will out.
And the idiots will eventually shut the f-up.
Can’t he pick a Stalin or a Hitler ?
Good.
https://twitter.com/jowilliams293/status/1236187718499078149?s=21
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1236188850763988993?s=19
If I had access to the data I would love to know how many of those who apparently caught the disease in Italy travelled there other than by plane. There are car and lorry drivers making trips across Europe all the time.
Of course I have an interest in holding this view, as I have a trip to Italy by car impending.
Cue the Normalcy Bias Deniers who will try any old ruse to turn stats to lies. E.g. 'oh but there are millions who have it asymptomatically' or 'but more of them die of flu' (neatly ignoring the vaccination issue).
We don't know how many of the 4600 currently infected will go on to die, but it won't be zero.
The bare facts are fairly clear:
The WHO mortality rate is 3.6%, Italy 4.2%.
Deny away if it makes your weekend feel better. I don't blame you actually. Just don't try and pass it off as truth.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51777049
This doesn’t mean a disaster isn’t possible, of course. But it does mean we should try and maintain a balanced view. We are after all still waiting for the post-Brexit national collapse that a certain PB’er was predicting in the days after he had just voted for it.
If these factors are taken into the calculation then I strongly suspect that we are dealing with a virus that is slghtly more dangerous than normal flu and we can all just then get on with watching (unfortunately ) Liverpool win the league , the olympics and summer holidays (even to Italy!)
Left wingers are now left praying for plague, global warming and Brexit to bring down the Boris, Trump governments that they despise.
They don’t even trust our wonderful infallible NHS to save us all.
Instead of going "hurr hurr hurr eadric" perhaps accept that the good Dr Fox probably knows more about what we can likely expect, than the rest of the board combined. What sort of tone do you think he is setting?
Not just Covid - Brexit, rising seas, droughts, etc.
It’s a clear admission that left wing parties can’t win on policy.
Those diseases had a much slower incubation period, so there was time to act. Much less so with the much faster moving Coronavirus.
In any case, self preservation is kicking in. It won't take government action to clamp down on unnecessary travel, large crowds and public events as people are socially distancing already. Government instructions might well be helpful to guide decisions, and also for insurance to kick in. Some bridging relief for affected sectors should be a key part of the budget. So as to lessen the economic hit.
It's probably a form of mental illness, extreme arrogance or something else perhaps more malevolent.
If the left want to govern they have to earn it with hard work on policy and convincing voters. Not just “ Buggins turn” and Nanking Noserun.
Not many (zero) on France or Germany.
It’s very transparent.
No dissecting the arguments - just no platform and use crude insults demeaning mental illness.
Meanwhile 16+ suicides daily.