Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
I DO take your point that it is "f*cking boring", and I agree it would be great if we could talk about something else. The trouble is this issue is so enormous it soon intrudes onto any other debate (unless they are about favourite kids tv shows or whatever)
eg take the POTUS elex. Clearly this is the biggest electoral story of the moment. We could talk about that, but very soon someone will rightly say, "Hang on, how does coronavirus affect all this, because it will" - and there we are again.
This applies almost universally.
Hmm.
Maybe you are right and TSE should impose some kind of rule. We are allowed to talk about coronavirus from 9pm-11pm. And not otherwise. Or something, I dunno.
You mean Quarantine it ?
I was tempted o make that joke, but I was worried it would make me sound facetious.
Which I don't want. Because I am serious. Casino is right that this will turn into coronavirusbetting.com very soon, if we don't have some sort of limit on discussion (and yes, I am amongst the most obsessive).
It is by far the biggest story of the day, maybe of the decade, but it will get relentless if we don't, uh, self isolate* the Covid debates.
*sorry, couldn't resist
maybe if we can shift talk into the summer , the forum will be in a better state to handle it with outdoor pursuits available for the bored
For reference: Spanish flu killed at least 40 million people, or 2% of the world's population, and perhaps as many as 5%. The lower part of that range would put it on a par for deathliness with WW1 or WW2.
Spanish flu had a 10 to 20% death rate on most estimates so I think that chart rather underestimates its fatality rate.
However I learnt today my godfather has a malignant brain tumour sadly which does rather put into context some panicking about catching coronavirus with just a 1 to 2% death rate
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
I DO take your point that it is "f*cking boring", and I agree it would be great if we could talk about something else. The trouble is this issue is so enormous it soon intrudes onto any other debate (unless they are about favourite kids tv shows or whatever)
eg take the POTUS elex. Clearly this is the biggest electoral story of the moment. We could talk about that, but very soon someone will rightly say, "Hang on, how does coronavirus affect all this, because it will" - and there we are again.
This applies almost universally.
Hmm.
Maybe you are right and TSE should impose some kind of rule. We are allowed to talk about coronavirus from 9pm-11pm. And not otherwise. Or something, I dunno.
The trouble is that newsy things happen at random times. Perhaps a rolling cordon would be better, you get 45 minutes for each cv story which makes the BBC news front page, starting when it gets there.
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Too little has been made of the disparity in mortality between young and old. Repeating the mantra that only (!) 2% who catch it are likely to die from it ignores the fact that for the older part of the population if you catch it then the odds of death are more like Russian roulette, or getting six in a throw of a die. I'm not wanting to scaremonger, but I'd like to see more consideration of that.
What a snide and petty opinion piece from Mr Meeks. I was genuinely surprised when I got to the end and saw his name at the bottom. He is better than this.
I thought so too actually. It's a shame when a point of view is overdone like this. Have you seen the film Vice? We went to watch it (and I have to say I didnt know who Dick Cheney was!), and left on his side, so overdone was the bias and unfunny were the jokes.
It seems that left leaning critics don't trust us to make up our minds correctly, so feel the need to hammer the point home by repeatedly using a variant of the most extreme example as an illustration. After a while the patronisation leaves more of an impression than the point they want to make.
So Dick Cheney was a bad guy apparently. But taking the mickey out of him having a heart attack etc was not the way to persuade me to hate him.
I thought he was portrayed as human and quite smart.
He was, and 100% irredeemably evil. It was a pale imitation of The Big Short. That also demonised it's villains but made a much tighter argument so I was happy to go along with it.
Laundromat was equally awful for the same reason. Just extensions of two minutes of hate
326 have had a pretty good prediction accuracy, and I like their error bar and central prediction format. This is what they are predicting for Super Tuesday:
For reference: Spanish flu killed at least 40 million people, or 2% of the world's population, and perhaps as many as 5%. The lower part of that range would put it on a par for deathliness with WW1 or WW2.
Spanish flu had a 10 to 20% death rate on most estimates so I think that chart rather underestimates its fatality rate.
However I learnt today my godfather has a malignant brain tumour sadly which does rather put into context some panicking about catching coronavirus with just a 1 to 2% death rate
I am sorry to hear that.
Normally I'd leave it at that, but you do realise if it's a primary it has an incidence rate of the order of .01%? So it hardly gives the context you think it does.
Too little has been made of the disparity in mortality between young and old. Repeating the mantra that only (!) 2% who catch it are likely to die from it ignores the fact that for the older part of the population if you catch it then the odds of death are more like Russian roulette, or getting six in a throw of a die. I'm not wanting to scaremonger, but I'd like to see more consideration of that.
A key point. When Italy reached 17 deaths, the lead epidemiologist in the main Italian hospital said that in his opinion 14 of them were already on their way out with other serious conditions, and only 3 could be considered ‘out of the blue’ deaths from Corona.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
There's nothing stopping people talking about other topics, but generally on PB we talk about the news. Coronavirus is dominating the news, and potentially has profound impact on all politics going forwards.
No. It's @eadric and his incessant 24/7 masturbation about the virus that is fast making this site unbearable.
Don't encourage him.
As annoying as you may find it, there's a credible case that it's currently 1st of June 2016 with regards to the next 4 years of politics.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
There's nothing stopping people talking about other topics, but generally on PB we talk about the news. Coronavirus is dominating the news, and potentially has profound impact on all politics going forwards.
No. It's @eadric and his incessant 24/7 masturbation about the virus that is fast making this site unbearable.
Don't encourage him.
As annoying as you may find it, there's a credible case that it's currently 1st of June 2016 with regards to the next 4 years of politics.
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
326 have had a pretty good prediction accuracy, and I like their error bar and central prediction format. This is what they are predicting for Super Tuesday:
I'm sorry but Covid-19 is the story of the day and dominates all others.
If we talk about Brexit it shows how utterly trivial and inconsequential that is going to be and how incredibly unfit for purpose our political class is that they has spent 3 years+ obsessing on it to the exclusion of almost all else.
If we talk about the US election then the virus looks set to show the utter incompetence and dishonesty of Trump along with the futility and moral repulsiveness of the best medical system on the planet for a minority of the population.
If we want to talk about the future of Boris then the fact we are almost certainly heading into a recession caused by disruption of international supply lines has a major impact on his prospects.
If we talk about infrastructure/HS2/Heathrow/ global warming then a world where international travel is much reduced, airports are shunned and supply lines shortened has a material impact on each of these issues.
Our world is about to change in a material way. Even as an optimist on the medical consequences of the virus I can see that.
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Throwing double 6 with dice = 2.77%. If you play board games very infrequently it's a slightly unusual thing to happen, but it isn't hold the front page/put me live to air either.
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
But the mortality rate is already 1%.
Spin a coin beforehand then and if correct no need to play !
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Throwing double 6 with dice = 2.77%. If you play board games very infrequently it's a slightly unusual thing to happen, but it isn't hold the front page/put me live to air either.
Very retro. Very few board games have dice, nowadays.
Too little has been made of the disparity in mortality between young and old. Repeating the mantra that only (!) 2% who catch it are likely to die from it ignores the fact that for the older part of the population if you catch it then the odds of death are more like Russian roulette, or getting six in a throw of a die. I'm not wanting to scaremonger, but I'd like to see more consideration of that.
A key point. When Italy reached 17 deaths, the lead epidemiologist in the main Italian hospital said that in his opinion 14 of them were already on their way out with other serious conditions, and only 3 could be considered ‘out of the blue’ deaths from Corona.
We are all "on the way out", just at different speeds. But the implication of frankly enormous risk for the over 70s with a condition should give rise to ideas about how that can be mitigated. Bluntly, for anyone in their 60s or younger this disease hardly looks serious. But for the others ..
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Throwing double 6 with dice = 2.77%. If you play board games very infrequently it's a slightly unusual thing to happen, but it isn't hold the front page/put me live to air either.
It probably happens somewhere around one in 36 throws of the two dice
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Unlike the Lottery, that is one contest we are all guaranteed to win. Eventually.
For reference: Spanish flu killed at least 40 million people, or 2% of the world's population, and perhaps as many as 5%. The lower part of that range would put it on a par for deathliness with WW1 or WW2.
Spanish flu had a 10 to 20% death rate on most estimates so I think that chart rather underestimates its fatality rate.
However I learnt today my godfather has a malignant brain tumour sadly which does rather put into context some panicking about catching coronavirus with just a 1 to 2% death rate
That's sad. Sorry to hear
Thank you, we are all going to die of something eventually and for most of us it will not be coronavirus
326 have had a pretty good prediction accuracy, and I like their error bar and central prediction format. This is what they are predicting for Super Tuesday:
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Throwing double 6 with dice = 2.77%. If you play board games very infrequently it's a slightly unusual thing to happen, but it isn't hold the front page/put me live to air either.
Significant variance in that.
Even in an semi-overwhelmed healthcare system (e.g. Wuhan - where they imported 0.7 medical professionals per case!) my odds of dying from it is between 0.1% to 0.5% (somewhat fit person in 20s). Someone else picks up my remaining 2.3%.
If you're 75+, or 50+ with pre-existing conditions (e.g. diabetes, cardiovascular disease etc.) then roll two die. 10, 11, or 12* and you're out.
I'm sorry but Covid-19 is the story of the day and dominates all others.
If we talk about Brexit it shows how utterly trivial and inconsequential that is going to be and how incredibly unfit for purpose our political class is that they has spent 3 years+ obsessing on it to the exclusion of almost all else.
If we talk about the US election then the virus looks set to show the utter incompetence and dishonesty of Trump along with the futility and moral repulsiveness of the best medical system on the planet for a minority of the population.
If we want to talk about the future of Boris then the fact we are almost certainly heading into a recession caused by disruption of international supply lines has a major impact on his prospects.
If we talk about infrastructure/HS2/Heathrow/ global warming then a world where international travel is much reduced, airports are shunned and supply lines shortened has a material impact on each of these issues.
Our world is about to change in a material way. Even as an optimist on the medical consequences of the virus I can see that.
This is an excellent, lucid, trenchant interview with Nouriel Roubini talking about the economic and political impact of the c-word.
He reckons it's a global disaster, stocks will fall 30-40%, and Trump is doomed.
The problem you have is that in a way it appears from the outside that it almost doesn't matter who wins the Labour leadership.
If Starmer wins he will still have to deal with a membership and an executive that basically thinks the only problem with the last election was they weren't left wing enough or their message was drowned by Brexit.
They have a wilful blindness to the fact that, for the vast majority of centre voters including many on the centre left, Corbyn's politics - and that of the party machine that supported him - is viewed with horror and disbelief.
As and when Starmer wins he will have to restart the process that Kinnock initiated of ending the power of the far left within the party and returning it to a more centrist but still recognisably left wing position. This does not mean going all Blairite but it does mean trying to draw a line under the culture wars that the left have been increasingly engaged in over the past decade.
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Throwing double 6 with dice = 2.77%. If you play board games very infrequently it's a slightly unusual thing to happen, but it isn't hold the front page/put me live to air either.
Significant variance in that.
Even in an semi-overwhelmed healthcare system (e.g. Wuhan - where they imported 0.7 medical professionals per case!) my odds of dying from it is between 0.1% to 0.5% (somewhat fit person in 20s). Someone else picks up my remaining 2.3%.
If you're 75+, or 50+ with pre-existing conditions (e.g. diabetes, cardiovascular disease etc.) then roll two die. 10, 11, or 12 and you're out.
I was going to "like" this post. But like is the wrong word. It's almost terrifying.
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Throwing double 6 with dice = 2.77%. If you play board games very infrequently it's a slightly unusual thing to happen, but it isn't hold the front page/put me live to air either.
It probably happens somewhere around one in 36 throws of the two dice
Yes, dummy.
I was asked to choose a bit ago whether to have a 6 month course of chemotherapy to improve my chances of survival by 3%. I found it helpful to translate the odds to: do I want to bet my life on something fractionally more likely than throwing double six, not happening? I thought others would possibly find stating the same equivalence useful.
The problem you have is that in a way it appears from the outside that it almost doesn't matter who wins the Labour leadership.
If Starmer wins he will still have to deal with a membership and an executive that basically thinks the only problem with the last election was they weren't left wing enough or their message was drowned by Brexit.
They have a wilful blindness to the fact that, for the vast majority of centre voters including many on the centre left, Corbyn's politics - and that of the party machine that supported him - is viewed with horror and disbelief.
As and when Starmer wins he will have to restart the process that Kinnock initiated of ending the power of the far left within the party and returning it to a more centrist but still recognisably left wing position. This does not mean going all Blairite but it does mean trying to draw a line under the culture wars that the left have been increasingly engaged in over the past decade.
100% agree Richard. As a former Corbynite the Corbynites must go.
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Throwing double 6 with dice = 2.77%. If you play board games very infrequently it's a slightly unusual thing to happen, but it isn't hold the front page/put me live to air either.
Significant variance in that.
Even in an semi-overwhelmed healthcare system (e.g. Wuhan - where they imported 0.7 medical professionals per case!) my odds of dying from it is between 0.1% to 0.5% (somewhat fit person in 20s). Someone else picks up my remaining 2.3%.
If you're 75+, or 50+ with pre-existing conditions (e.g. diabetes, cardiovascular disease etc.) then roll two die. 10, 11, or 12* and you're out.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
Maybe you should try Netflix, a walk, sketching, etc.
I'm fine. I've been doing that all day. Spending the weekend with my daughter.
The problem you have is that in a way it appears from the outside that it almost doesn't matter who wins the Labour leadership.
If Starmer wins he will still have to deal with a membership and an executive that basically thinks the only problem with the last election was they weren't left wing enough or their message was drowned by Brexit.
They have a wilful blindness to the fact that, for the vast majority of centre voters including many on the centre left, Corbyn's politics - and that of the party machine that supported him - is viewed with horror and disbelief.
As and when Starmer wins he will have to restart the process that Kinnock initiated of ending the power of the far left within the party and returning it to a more centrist but still recognisably left wing position. This does not mean going all Blairite but it does mean trying to draw a line under the culture wars that the left have been increasingly engaged in over the past decade.
100% agree Richard. As a former Corbynite the Corbynites must go.
The trouble is that, with the current constitutional arrangements within the Labour party I don't see how Starmer can achieve that.
Bear in mind I speak as someone thoroughly opposed to Labour and the left in general but who believes we need a strong, politically engaged and aggressive opposition to hold a Government to account.
All he deserves. If you don't play you shouldn't get to win.
Alternately they are astonishingly high for a previously Republican billionaire running for the Democratic nomination with poor debating performance, interesting views on minorities and vast ad buys.
Reflects the quality of the field I'm afraid. If the field contained a Bill Clinton or Barak Obama he would be absolutely nowhere. But it doesn't.
I spent the last four years asking my Democrat relatives in the US for the name of a Democrat who met the following criteria -
1) Preferably a (ex?) governor of a state. 2) Good at speaking and debates. 3) Between 40 and 60 4) Not actually made of money or owned by Goldman Sachs. 5) Some policies would be nice.
Instead we have a final between Bernie and Bidden.
I thought Hickenlooper would have done better than he did.
You keep going on about trying to change the topic, I try and you just ignore me.
Hypocrites.
Though you have illustrated the problem. We simply CAN'T stop talking about it, because it is so vast, important and unnerving. We will try, and we will fail.
You keep going on about trying to change the topic, I try and you just ignore me.
Hypocrites.
Though you have illustrated the problem. We simply CAN'T stop talking about it, because it is so vast, important and unnerving. We will try, and we will fail.
For reference: Spanish flu killed at least 40 million people, or 2% of the world's population, and perhaps as many as 5%. The lower part of that range would put it on a par for deathliness with WW1 or WW2.
Spanish flu had a 10 to 20% death rate on most estimates so I think that chart rather underestimates its fatality rate.
However I learnt today my godfather has a malignant brain tumour sadly which does rather put into context some panicking about catching coronavirus with just a 1 to 2% death rate
That's sad. Sorry to hear
Thank you, we are all going to die of something eventually and for most of us it will not be coronavirus
326 have had a pretty good prediction accuracy, and I like their error bar and central prediction format. This is what they are predicting for Super Tuesday:
For reference: Spanish flu killed at least 40 million people, or 2% of the world's population, and perhaps as many as 5%. The lower part of that range would put it on a par for deathliness with WW1 or WW2.
Spanish flu had a 10 to 20% death rate on most estimates so I think that chart rather underestimates its fatality rate.
However I learnt today my godfather has a malignant brain tumour sadly which does rather put into context some panicking about catching coronavirus with just a 1 to 2% death rate
I'm sorry but Covid-19 is the story of the day and dominates all others.
If we talk about Brexit it shows how utterly trivial and inconsequential that is going to be and how incredibly unfit for purpose our political class is that they has spent 3 years+ obsessing on it to the exclusion of almost all else.
If we talk about the US election then the virus looks set to show the utter incompetence and dishonesty of Trump along with the futility and moral repulsiveness of the best medical system on the planet for a minority of the population.
If we want to talk about the future of Boris then the fact we are almost certainly heading into a recession caused by disruption of international supply lines has a major impact on his prospects.
If we talk about infrastructure/HS2/Heathrow/ global warming then a world where international travel is much reduced, airports are shunned and supply lines shortened has a material impact on each of these issues.
Our world is about to change in a material way. Even as an optimist on the medical consequences of the virus I can see that.
This is an excellent, lucid, trenchant interview with Nouriel Roubini talking about the economic and political impact of the c-word.
He reckons it's a global disaster, stocks will fall 30-40%, and Trump is doomed.
The government needs to start drilling this into people, if you development what might be the virus, self-isolate, etc etc etc. We really are going to have a loads of idiots get on the bus / tube and turn up at A&E aren't we.
I'm sorry but Covid-19 is the story of the day and dominates all others.
If we talk about Brexit it shows how utterly trivial and inconsequential that is going to be and how incredibly unfit for purpose our political class is that they has spent 3 years+ obsessing on it to the exclusion of almost all else.
If we talk about the US election then the virus looks set to show the utter incompetence and dishonesty of Trump along with the futility and moral repulsiveness of the best medical system on the planet for a minority of the population.
If we want to talk about the future of Boris then the fact we are almost certainly heading into a recession caused by disruption of international supply lines has a major impact on his prospects.
If we talk about infrastructure/HS2/Heathrow/ global warming then a world where international travel is much reduced, airports are shunned and supply lines shortened has a material impact on each of these issues.
Our world is about to change in a material way. Even as an optimist on the medical consequences of the virus I can see that.
This is an excellent, lucid, trenchant interview with Nouriel Roubini talking about the economic and political impact of the c-word.
He reckons it's a global disaster, stocks will fall 30-40%, and Trump is doomed.
Eh? It says Trump is guaranteed to lose. Guaranteed - “quote him on that”.
Or are you only picking out the bits of his prediction that you fancy?
Interesting that he is suggesting public spaces like restaurants in New York are already half empty. I am not seeing that yet in the UK.
You what? I said he says "Trump is doomed". That's his opinion.
FWIW I agree with him. A major recession is coming, maybe even a Depression, and it is coming fast. The economy was Trump's big thing (along with all the culture was stuff, which will soon feel v trivial).
He surely loses.
I am not sure that is necessarily the case. It would depend upon his opponents being able to paint the recession as being due to him rather than due to the Pandemic. That would be a tough call unless they can clearly show his failings made the situation worse in the US.
I am inclined to think that in fact the CV could end up helping rather than hindering his re-election as it would serve as a cover for any Trump induced recession.
326 have had a pretty good prediction accuracy, and I like their error bar and central prediction format. This is what they are predicting for Super Tuesday:
I think for those with pre-existing conditions particularly cardiovascular or respiratory there is genuine cause for concern while recognising the coronavirus in and of itself isn't the problem but the exacerbation of the current condition.
Other conditions with high coronavirus death rates include diabetes, hypertension, and cancer - roughly as high as for respiratory but not as high as for cardiovascular. (Source.) The death rate among the infected is also higher for men (4.7%) than for women (2.8%).
The problem is that all those conditions probably correlate quite strongly with age. It would be more meaningful to correct for age somehow.
I'm sorry but Covid-19 is the story of the day and dominates all others.
If we talk about Brexit it shows how utterly trivial and inconsequential that is going to be and how incredibly unfit for purpose our political class is that they has spent 3 years+ obsessing on it to the exclusion of almost all else.
If we talk about the US election then the virus looks set to show the utter incompetence and dishonesty of Trump along with the futility and moral repulsiveness of the best medical system on the planet for a minority of the population.
If we want to talk about the future of Boris then the fact we are almost certainly heading into a recession caused by disruption of international supply lines has a major impact on his prospects.
If we talk about infrastructure/HS2/Heathrow/ global warming then a world where international travel is much reduced, airports are shunned and supply lines shortened has a material impact on each of these issues.
Our world is about to change in a material way. Even as an optimist on the medical consequences of the virus I can see that.
This is an excellent, lucid, trenchant interview with Nouriel Roubini talking about the economic and political impact of the c-word.
He reckons it's a global disaster, stocks will fall 30-40%, and Trump is doomed.
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Europe also has the Greek situation to contend with.
I'm sorry but Covid-19 is the story of the day and dominates all others.
If we talk about Brexit it shows how utterly trivial and inconsequential that is going to be and how incredibly unfit for purpose our political class is that they has spent 3 years+ obsessing on it to the exclusion of almost all else.
If we talk about the US election then the virus looks set to show the utter incompetence and dishonesty of Trump along with the futility and moral repulsiveness of the best medical system on the planet for a minority of the population.
If we want to talk about the future of Boris then the fact we are almost certainly heading into a recession caused by disruption of international supply lines has a major impact on his prospects.
If we talk about infrastructure/HS2/Heathrow/ global warming then a world where international travel is much reduced, airports are shunned and supply lines shortened has a material impact on each of these issues.
Our world is about to change in a material way. Even as an optimist on the medical consequences of the virus I can see that.
This is an excellent, lucid, trenchant interview with Nouriel Roubini talking about the economic and political impact of the c-word.
He reckons it's a global disaster, stocks will fall 30-40%, and Trump is doomed.
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Disappointingly, I would guess something similar. FTSE down 3-4%, Germany probably a bit worse. God knows what Milan does: shut?
The Dow maybe not quite as bad. I suspect we may well see the Fed buying equities at some point this week. Trump absolutely loathes stock market falls, he sees them as votes of no confidence.
If you put the mortality rate of say 2% in betting terms its like picking the bonus ball in the Lottery - Not likely but when death is at stake you would be nervous before the Balls are released , certainly not been able to concentrate on 'In it to win it" beforehand
Throwing double 6 with dice = 2.77%. If you play board games very infrequently it's a slightly unusual thing to happen, but it isn't hold the front page/put me live to air either.
Significant variance in that.
Even in an semi-overwhelmed healthcare system (e.g. Wuhan - where they imported 0.7 medical professionals per case!) my odds of dying from it is between 0.1% to 0.5% (somewhat fit person in 20s). Someone else picks up my remaining 2.3%.
If you're 75+, or 50+ with pre-existing conditions (e.g. diabetes, cardiovascular disease etc.) then roll two die. 10, 11, or 12 and you're out.
I was going to "like" this post. But like is the wrong word. It's almost terrifying.
It's not great.
Then factor in that in a fully overwhelmed system 9 needs to be added in.
I've had a few goes for my parents and remaining grandparent, and I'm not too keen on the results either. https://www.random.org/dice/?num=2
If I was a 60+ year old retired person I'd have 3 months of food at home, some good books and a plan to not leave until it all blows over a bit.
Roubini: "This crisis is a supply shock that you can’t fight with monetary or fiscal policy." I pointed this out here a couple of weeks ago.
It's a supply shock AND a demand shock. People don't want to buy movies, houses, cars, dinners, anything. They want sanitiser and lentils.
If there were no drop in demand then the global supply shock would be seriously inflationary. As it is the main outcome will probably be the global drop in output with less of an effect on prices. Whatever, there's no obvious policy that can rectify it.
Do we reckon the current UK quarter is probably negative now?
Definitely not yet. January will have been strong because of the post election slight bounce, so far supply or consumption hasn't been affected (negatively) in February, then it all depends how March goes.
I am certain that France and Italy will have a negative 20Q1, and hence be in recession. Germany will be negative and will record 0.0% growth 19Q4 and 20Q1 negative.
I'm sorry but Covid-19 is the story of the day and dominates all others.
If we talk about Brexit it shows how utterly trivial and inconsequential that is going to be and how incredibly unfit for purpose our political class is that they has spent 3 years+ obsessing on it to the exclusion of almost all else.
If we talk about the US election then the virus looks set to show the utter incompetence and dishonesty of Trump along with the futility and moral repulsiveness of the best medical system on the planet for a minority of the population.
If we want to talk about the future of Boris then the fact we are almost certainly heading into a recession caused by disruption of international supply lines has a major impact on his prospects.
If we talk about infrastructure/HS2/Heathrow/ global warming then a world where international travel is much reduced, airports are shunned and supply lines shortened has a material impact on each of these issues.
Our world is about to change in a material way. Even as an optimist on the medical consequences of the virus I can see that.
This is an excellent, lucid, trenchant interview with Nouriel Roubini talking about the economic and political impact of the c-word.
He reckons it's a global disaster, stocks will fall 30-40%, and Trump is doomed.
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Europe also has the Greek situation to contend with.
And the Syrian refugee issue. The strains that put on the border states and EU cohesiveness the last time was immense and there was not even a (legitimate) fear that they may be carrying this virus. Don't think that the Germans will be stepping up to the plate this time. Borders are going to have to close. Right now.
I'm sorry but Covid-19 is the story of the day and dominates all others.
If we talk about Brexit it shows how utterly trivial and inconsequential that is going to be and how incredibly unfit for purpose our political class is that they has spent 3 years+ obsessing on it to the exclusion of almost all else.
If we talk about the US election then the virus looks set to show the utter incompetence and dishonesty of Trump along with the futility and moral repulsiveness of the best medical system on the planet for a minority of the population.
If we want to talk about the future of Boris then the fact we are almost certainly heading into a recession caused by disruption of international supply lines has a major impact on his prospects.
If we talk about infrastructure/HS2/Heathrow/ global warming then a world where international travel is much reduced, airports are shunned and supply lines shortened has a material impact on each of these issues.
Our world is about to change in a material way. Even as an optimist on the medical consequences of the virus I can see that.
This is an excellent, lucid, trenchant interview with Nouriel Roubini talking about the economic and political impact of the c-word.
He reckons it's a global disaster, stocks will fall 30-40%, and Trump is doomed.
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Europe also has the Greek situation to contend with.
And the Syrian refugee issue. The strains that put on the border states and EU cohesiveness the last time was immense and there was not even a (legitimate) fear that they may be carrying this virus. Don't think that the Germans will be stepping up to the plate this time. Borders are going to have to close. Right now.
Those places that constructed the fences are looking a bit smarter now.
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Europe also has the Greek situation to contend with.
And the Syrian refugee issue. The strains that put on the border states and EU cohesiveness the last time was immense and there was not even a (legitimate) fear that they may be carrying this virus. Don't think that the Germans will be stepping up to the plate this time. Borders are going to have to close. Right now.
Those places that constructed the fences are looking a bit smarter now.
I fear it will get violent. Shooting at plague carriers will seem a lot more acceptable than it did the last time. We're going to see some seriously emotive headlines.
I think for those with pre-existing conditions particularly cardiovascular or respiratory there is genuine cause for concern while recognising the coronavirus in and of itself isn't the problem but the exacerbation of the current condition.
Other conditions with high coronavirus death rates include diabetes, hypertension, and cancer - roughly as high as for respiratory but not as high as for cardiovascular. (Source.) The death rate among the infected is also higher for men (4.7%) than for women (2.8%).
The problem is that all those conditions probably correlate quite strongly with age. It would be more meaningful to correct for age somehow.
Not that it makes much difference, but is this a specific thing about this virus? I would have thought not: if I hear anyone 70+ has got an infection of any kind I think oh fck, whereas if they are sub 50 I think, They'll be fine.
Do we reckon the current UK quarter is probably negative now?
Definitely not yet. January will have been strong because of the post election slight bounce, so far supply or consumption hasn't been affected (negatively) in February, then it all depends how March goes.
I am certain that France and Italy will have a negative 20Q1, and hence be in recession. Germany will be negative and will record 0.0% growth 19Q4 and 20Q1 negative.
I hate to be continuously pessimistic, but if so much economic activity essentially ceases, as it has in China, then we could get crazily bad GDP figures.
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Europe also has the Greek situation to contend with.
And the Syrian refugee issue. The strains that put on the border states and EU cohesiveness the last time was immense and there was not even a (legitimate) fear that they may be carrying this virus. Don't think that the Germans will be stepping up to the plate this time. Borders are going to have to close. Right now.
Those places that constructed the fences are looking a bit smarter now.
I fear it will get violent. Shooting at plague carriers will seem a lot more acceptable than it did the last time. We're going to see some seriously emotive headlines.
Turkey needs to be put back into its box. The Ottoman Empire collapsed 200 years ago, and still they're marching into other countries with their size 12 hobnail boots.
Do we reckon the current UK quarter is probably negative now?
Definitely not yet. January will have been strong because of the post election slight bounce, so far supply or consumption hasn't been affected (negatively) in February, then it all depends how March goes.
I am certain that France and Italy will have a negative 20Q1, and hence be in recession. Germany will be negative and will record 0.0% growth 19Q4 and 20Q1 negative.
I hate to be continuously pessimistic, but if so much economic activity essentially ceases, as it has in China, then we could get crazily bad GDP figures.
-5%? -8%?
Yeah, if it takes off in the UK then March could be awful and put us negative for this quarter, but as of yet I do not think that the economy has shrunk in the first two months.
FWIW I have us two weeks behind Italy. If anything virus panic will pull forward demand in March and I don't think that we'll see significant negative disruption until the end of the month. Q2 is likely be a bloodbath if this takes hold, and we can't start to talk about Q3 until we know where the UK is at the end of June.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
The Budget could bring in tax changes to encourage domestic production and removed reliance on global supply chains.
On a related note any suggestion of '"we don't need an agricultural sector" is now dead.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
The problem you have is that in a way it appears from the outside that it almost doesn't matter who wins the Labour leadership.
If Starmer wins he will still have to deal with a membership and an executive that basically thinks the only problem with the last election was they weren't left wing enough or their message was drowned by Brexit.
They have a wilful blindness to the fact that, for the vast majority of centre voters including many on the centre left, Corbyn's politics - and that of the party machine that supported him - is viewed with horror and disbelief.
As and when Starmer wins he will have to restart the process that Kinnock initiated of ending the power of the far left within the party and returning it to a more centrist but still recognisably left wing position. This does not mean going all Blairite but it does mean trying to draw a line under the culture wars that the left have been increasingly engaged in over the past decade.
100% agree Richard. As a former Corbynite the Corbynites must go.
I think even the former Corbynites should go to...too much damage has been done by his ideological cult to allow even reformers to stay....
Nick P sadly irritates the hell out of me by still twittering on about Corbyn as though he was somehow some force for good....
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
You can be sure that Scunthorpe steelworks is now safe.
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Europe also has the Greek situation to contend with.
And the Syrian refugee issue. The strains that put on the border states and EU cohesiveness the last time was immense and there was not even a (legitimate) fear that they may be carrying this virus. Don't think that the Germans will be stepping up to the plate this time. Borders are going to have to close. Right now.
Those places that constructed the fences are looking a bit smarter now.
I fear it will get violent. Shooting at plague carriers will seem a lot more acceptable than it did the last time. We're going to see some seriously emotive headlines.
Turkey needs to be put back into its box. The Ottoman Empire collapsed 200 years ago, and still they're marching into other countries with their size 12 hobnail boots.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
Of course, but it takes time and a lot of work to even get projects from the drawing board. Even if the government green lit a load of stuff next week, it wouldn't be getting built for months / years.
What we want is all this stuff ready to go go go as soon as possible. Not the crap like Heathrow or HS2, where years and years later we still not anywhere.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
I think planning for this budget is about as much use as Pep planning his tactics to win the Champions League...or the Eavis's planning for Glastonbury....
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Europe also has the Greek situation to contend with.
And the Syrian refugee issue. The strains that put on the border states and EU cohesiveness the last time was immense and there was not even a (legitimate) fear that they may be carrying this virus. Don't think that the Germans will be stepping up to the plate this time. Borders are going to have to close. Right now.
Those places that constructed the fences are looking a bit smarter now.
I fear it will get violent. Shooting at plague carriers will seem a lot more acceptable than it did the last time. We're going to see some seriously emotive headlines.
Turkey needs to be put back into its box. The Ottoman Empire collapsed 200 years ago, and still they're marching into other countries with their size 12 hobnail boots.
The Turks now control pretty much the migrant flows into Europe.....how do we put them into their box?
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Europe also has the Greek situation to contend with.
And the Syrian refugee issue. The strains that put on the border states and EU cohesiveness the last time was immense and there was not even a (legitimate) fear that they may be carrying this virus. Don't think that the Germans will be stepping up to the plate this time. Borders are going to have to close. Right now.
Those places that constructed the fences are looking a bit smarter now.
I fear it will get violent. Shooting at plague carriers will seem a lot more acceptable than it did the last time. We're going to see some seriously emotive headlines.
Turkey needs to be put back into its box. The Ottoman Empire collapsed 200 years ago, and still they're marching into other countries with their size 12 hobnail boots.
1924 is not ‘200 years ago.’
Yes, that was silly, out by over a century. I'll blame it on watching 'Sharpe' repeats recently. Still the point stands.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
You can be sure that Scunthorpe steelworks is now safe.
I seriously hope someone is working on how we replace the kind of steel we have been importing from China. My understanding is our domestic production tends to be high end, more sophisticated stuff not what you build buildings or flyovers with. It's just one example of how the whole globalisation agenda is going to take several steps back, at least for now.
Reading all this I'm getting to think of a.presumed cold I had last month or so.. Fever, dry cough. shortness of breath. As bad a cold as I can recall in terms of ttiredness.. My partner was really debilitated for a fortnight. How would I know if I have had it? I'm in reasonable shape for.my age and not in the at risk group.
Comments
http://influenzavirusnet.com/1918-flu-pandemic/mortality.html
However I learnt today my godfather has a malignant brain tumour sadly which does rather put into context some panicking about catching coronavirus with just a 1 to 2% death rate
I'm not wanting to scaremonger, but I'd like to see more consideration of that.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1234203866343919616?s=09
Normally I'd leave it at that, but you do realise if it's a primary it has an incidence rate of the order of .01%? So it hardly gives the context you think it does.
Called Starmer right for leader I hope and got Sanders as well.
Sanders vs Trump, who will win?
If we talk about Brexit it shows how utterly trivial and inconsequential that is going to be and how incredibly unfit for purpose our political class is that they has spent 3 years+ obsessing on it to the exclusion of almost all else.
If we talk about the US election then the virus looks set to show the utter incompetence and dishonesty of Trump along with the futility and moral repulsiveness of the best medical system on the planet for a minority of the population.
If we want to talk about the future of Boris then the fact we are almost certainly heading into a recession caused by disruption of international supply lines has a major impact on his prospects.
If we talk about infrastructure/HS2/Heathrow/ global warming then a world where international travel is much reduced, airports are shunned and supply lines shortened has a material impact on each of these issues.
Our world is about to change in a material way. Even as an optimist on the medical consequences of the virus I can see that.
You keep going on about trying to change the topic, I try and you just ignore me.
Hypocrites.
See the problem?
Even in an semi-overwhelmed healthcare system (e.g. Wuhan - where they imported 0.7 medical professionals per case!) my odds of dying from it is between 0.1% to 0.5% (somewhat fit person in 20s). Someone else picks up my remaining 2.3%.
If you're 75+, or 50+ with pre-existing conditions (e.g. diabetes, cardiovascular disease etc.) then roll two die. 10, 11, or 12* and you're out.
If you fit into those categories have a go: https://www.random.org/dice/?num=2
* if we do get a 20k+ cases in the UK mortality rates in those groups will increase even more, so add 9 to the death group for that scenario.
Or are you only picking out the bits of his prediction that you fancy?
Interesting that he is suggesting public spaces like restaurants in New York are already half empty. I am not seeing that yet in the UK.
If Starmer wins he will still have to deal with a membership and an executive that basically thinks the only problem with the last election was they weren't left wing enough or their message was drowned by Brexit.
They have a wilful blindness to the fact that, for the vast majority of centre voters including many on the centre left, Corbyn's politics - and that of the party machine that supported him - is viewed with horror and disbelief.
As and when Starmer wins he will have to restart the process that Kinnock initiated of ending the power of the far left within the party and returning it to a more centrist but still recognisably left wing position. This does not mean going all Blairite but it does mean trying to draw a line under the culture wars that the left have been increasingly engaged in over the past decade.
I was asked to choose a bit ago whether to have a 6 month course of chemotherapy to improve my chances of survival by 3%. I found it helpful to translate the odds to: do I want to bet my life on something fractionally more likely than throwing double six, not happening? I thought others would possibly find stating the same equivalence useful.
2.78, actually.
It's the utter obsessives I worry about.
Bear in mind I speak as someone thoroughly opposed to Labour and the left in general but who believes we need a strong, politically engaged and aggressive opposition to hold a Government to account.
His polling is degrading day by day.
'My eyes felt on fire': Couple and two small children are rushed for coronavirus tests after returning from Venice with flu-like symptoms
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8061779/My-eyes-felt-fire-Medics-hazmat-suits-rush-couple-two-children-coronavirus-tests.html
The government needs to start drilling this into people, if you development what might be the virus, self-isolate, etc etc etc. We really are going to have a loads of idiots get on the bus / tube and turn up at A&E aren't we.
https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1234119990128893953?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8481/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-free-speech-one-each-the-myth-of-the-oppressed-rightwinger-a/p2
I am inclined to think that in fact the CV could end up helping rather than hindering his re-election as it would serve as a cover for any Trump induced recession.
I pointed this out here a couple of weeks ago.
Also I hope you all see that I didn't run away despite being very wrong, as promised.
To keep on a roll.....
The Dow maybe not quite as bad. I suspect we may well see the Fed buying equities at some point this week. Trump absolutely loathes stock market falls, he sees them as votes of no confidence.
Then factor in that in a fully overwhelmed system 9 needs to be added in.
I've had a few goes for my parents and remaining grandparent, and I'm not too keen on the results either. https://www.random.org/dice/?num=2
If I was a 60+ year old retired person I'd have 3 months of food at home, some good books and a plan to not leave until it all blows over a bit.
I am certain that France and Italy will have a negative 20Q1, and hence be in recession. Germany will be negative and will record 0.0% growth 19Q4 and 20Q1 negative.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1234200983707770881
Spain looks to be roughly a day or two behind France and Germany.
Good thing there's a state of the art hospital there.
FWIW I have us two weeks behind Italy. If anything virus panic will pull forward demand in March and I don't think that we'll see significant negative disruption until the end of the month. Q2 is likely be a bloodbath if this takes hold, and we can't start to talk about Q3 until we know where the UK is at the end of June.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
On a related note any suggestion of '"we don't need an agricultural sector" is now dead.
I think even the former Corbynites should go to...too much damage has been done by his ideological cult to allow even reformers to stay....
Nick P sadly irritates the hell out of me by still twittering on about Corbyn as though he was somehow some force for good....
What we want is all this stuff ready to go go go as soon as possible. Not the crap like Heathrow or HS2, where years and years later we still not anywhere.
How would I know if I have had it? I'm in reasonable shape for.my age and not in the at risk group.