I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
Although a massive undertaking, distancing those recently arrived from the general public seems like a very sensible course of action. How you enforce this is another matter.
The manufacturing heart of the planet no longer beating. The disruption that is going to cause to ever longer supply chains for almost all manufactures of any complexity is almost immeasurable. For me this virus remains more of an economic crisis than a health one. But its not going to be good.
Can you tell me what informs you that it won't also be a health crisis?
Because, right now, I would love to share your optimism.
We've discussed this before. In Wuhan the infection rate is something like 5%. The death rate is maybe 2% and its a lot less everywhere else where modern medical facilities are available. Singapore has shown that it is possible to prevent the spread of this condition by diligent follow up of infections. So far the NHS is world leading in testing and monitoring. Assuming these defences are eventually overcome we are probably looking at fatalities similar in scale to a bad flu outbreak. Very unfortunate for those (mainly elderly and sick) who succumb but of no great materiality for those who don't.
But I really don't see how we now avoid quite a serious, if brief, recession.
Have predictions been made on Labour post-Starmer victory polling?
I suspect Labour will receive a boost, perhaps mainly from the Lib Dem vote?
I think Starmer will have done very badly if he isn't reaching the 40s, which even Corbyn achieved.
He ruled out a platform of Rejoin so I am sticking with the Lib Dems. I suspect there are a lot like me.
Rejoin is utterly toxic.
After fighting every wrong battle over the last three years, are pro-Europeans now going to throw in their cards on the right one before we start?
I think the rejoin cause is probably about 20% of people, the rest are Remainers like me who have now given up and instead support some kind of EEA-style deal.
I'm fairly sure polling said for a long time the deal 80% of people would accept is basically EFTA. Shame we have a Government that is about to fuck our economy for the sake of winning an imaginary war.
The chances of a UK recession within the next five years I'd say are pretty likely.
I wonder if this will shred the Tory economic credentials as per 1992?
5 years...5 months more like. If it is Coronavirus, no it won't, as the rest of the world will also be hit for the same reason.
Labour was blamed for the 2008 crisis, the sitting Government will surely receive some criticism for it.
This is very likely to be worse than 2008, by orders of magnitude.
I would be astonished if this doesn't damage the Government at least somewhat.
This is just the time we need a competent opposition. The good news is we seem like we're about to get one.
We could see a government of national unity. It is that serious. This is probably going to be like a big, nasty war.
So, yeah, it is good Corbyn has gone.
More nonsensical hyperbole.
Have you decided yet whether you actually had it - and hence should be reassuring people that for non-elderly healthy people it’s not that big a deal - or didn’t have it, and simply wasted a lot of NHS time with your absurd panicking?
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
I heard similar stuff, albeit only a month of lockdown last Sunday. The thing that worries me is that medical professionals are taking this very seriously compared to the average person, whereas normally it's the public doing the panicking.
The issue primarily is that the UK (and all other countries) aren't geared for a mass infection event like this.
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
It will need to be longer than two months but this is the right idea. Unfortunately the government sound like they will delay and defer the necessary steps until it becomes too serious. Too late then for many.
It will have to happen eventually so just do it early and get on with it.
If people will be asked to work from home then employers and the government need to address issues like who is going to pay for things like electricity and phone calls and who will be taxed for them; do ISPs even have enough internet bandwidth for all the extra Skype, Webex and conference calls that will happen?
If people will be asked to work from home then employers and the government need to address issues like who is going to pay for things like electricity and phone calls and who will be taxed for them; do ISPs even have enough internet bandwidth for all the extra Skype, Webex and conference calls that will happen?
Bigger problem will be all that Netflix streaming....it already takes up an absurd amount of the total bandwidth.
Broadly I agree. If you dish it out, you have to be willing to take it. And, I don't think you've ever said anything worth saying if you haven't been insulted by Malcolmg for it, at least once.
I do however, get concerned about twitter mobs trying to hound people out of their jobs, or organise boycotts, for things that have been expressed outside of the workplace. Or people getting threatened with violence for their opinions.
Yes, in general I think distaste for opinions should not be transferable into other areas, as otherwise it gets in the way of sensible cooperation. I've worked on an environmental project with someone who I knew to be a BNP member. It didn't seem relevant so I never raised it, nor did he.
I think there are jobs in which it would be entirely reasonable to deny employment to a member of a specific political party. I would not expect any left wing campaigning organisation to have to employ me, for example. Even if the role were technocratic, I think they should be entitled to employ people who are committed to the cause. But, if they came to me for legal advice on conveyancing or inheritance, then I'd be as willing to work for them as I would for any other client.
I think that one's political views should be irrelevant to most occupations, however.
Have predictions been made on Labour post-Starmer victory polling?
I suspect Labour will receive a boost, perhaps mainly from the Lib Dem vote?
I think Starmer will have done very badly if he isn't reaching the 40s, which even Corbyn achieved.
He ruled out a platform of Rejoin so I am sticking with the Lib Dems. I suspect there are a lot like me.
Rejoin is utterly toxic.
After fighting every wrong battle over the last three years, are pro-Europeans now going to throw in their cards on the right one before we start?
I think the rejoin cause is probably about 20% of people, the rest are Remainers like me who have now given up and instead support some kind of EEA-style deal.
I'm fairly sure polling said for a long time the deal 80% of people would accept is basically EFTA. Shame we have a Government that is about to fuck our economy for the sake of winning an imaginary war.
Doesn't that require freedom of movement? I've not seen support for that in the 80s.
Have predictions been made on Labour post-Starmer victory polling?
I suspect Labour will receive a boost, perhaps mainly from the Lib Dem vote?
I think Starmer will have done very badly if he isn't reaching the 40s, which even Corbyn achieved.
He ruled out a platform of Rejoin so I am sticking with the Lib Dems. I suspect there are a lot like me.
Rejoin is utterly toxic.
After fighting every wrong battle over the last three years, are pro-Europeans now going to throw in their cards on the right one before we start?
I think the rejoin cause is probably about 20% of people, the rest are Remainers like me who have now given up and instead support some kind of EEA-style deal.
I'm fairly sure polling said for a long time the deal 80% of people would accept is basically EFTA. Shame we have a Government that is about to fuck our economy for the sake of winning an imaginary war.
Doesn't that require freedom of movement? I've not seen support for that in the 80s.
I'll have to track down the poll but it was certainly up there, I am quite happy to acknowledge I might have got the numbers wrong but I am sure it was a majority in favour.
I think YouGov did a poll based on preference voting and an EEA-style deal with FOM (once it was explained it applied both ways albeit), was the most popular Leave option.
I'd be perfectly content with that, I am not sure at all why we aren't doing it.
The chances of a UK recession within the next five years I'd say are pretty likely.
I wonder if this will shred the Tory economic credentials as per 1992?
It will. And the combination of Covid ("It started in China") and Brexit ("But the EU are struggling too") could be politically terminal.
Odd to be saying this now, but this could well be the last Conservative government that many of us will see in our lifetimes.
And just how many times has that been said?
Fair point and you know how wrong I have been in the past.
But in every recent recession or economic disaster the sitting Government has been badly impacted by it.
Perhaps we now live in different times and Johnson manages to not let anything else stick to him - but I would be surprised if they don't take a hit in support.
Perhaps their response to it will be the more pressing thing. Austerity will surely have to come back if such a thing happens, they surely won't invest in a Keynesian style?
Not to mention they don't have much room on borrowing or interest rates. Fundamentally the economy is pretty badly setup for any event - they've been in Government for 9 years, can't blame Labour this time.
Any PB regular knows that he’s a drama queen. By the sound of it, it didn’t take the NHS that long to work out the same.
The alternative being to believe that Sean is actually UK Patient Zero.
It does seem to me that eadric is in the position of someone on 15/4/12 pointing out in relatively measured terms that the ship has actually hit an iceberg, is actually sinking, and that there are actually not enough lifeboats. The suggestion that seeking advice from PHE, and following it, is the wrong thing to do sets a new standard of batshittery (not to say irresponsibility).
And his advice four weeks ago to get out of equities was the most valuable I have ever acted on.
I agree selling equities recently was wise, and did so myself. Whether it was valuable advice in the medium term depends on what happens to the markets while you are out of them.
My advice - from last weekend onwards - to take sell positions on the Dow and FTSE, and sell GBP/CHF - would actually have delivered you a profit (rather than just an avoided loss) this week.
What's PB consencus (is there ever such a thing?) about when the stock exchanges will hit bottom and start to rise?
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
Although a massive undertaking, distancing those recently arrived from the general public seems like a very sensible course of action. How you enforce this is another matter.
Increase the Air Passenger Tax to £10 million per UK return. That'll stop people coming back to the UK.
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
I heard similar stuff, albeit only a month of lockdown last Sunday. The thing that worries me is that medical professionals are taking this very seriously compared to the average person, whereas normally it's the public doing the panicking.
The issue primarily is that the UK (and all other countries) aren't geared for a mass infection event like this.
People panicking aren't helping.
I was discussing the impact of the Black Death in relation to this, with a friend. He reckons a pandemic of that type would hit us far harder than a medieval society. Medieval people either grew their own food, or were very close to those who did. We depend on supply chains that would break down within days.
Imagine 40% of the UK's population dying in 18 months. There would be total chaos.
The chances of a UK recession within the next five years I'd say are pretty likely.
I wonder if this will shred the Tory economic credentials as per 1992?
5 years...5 months more like. If it is Coronavirus, no it won't, as the rest of the world will also be hit for the same reason.
Labour was blamed for the 2008 crisis, the sitting Government will surely receive some criticism for it.
This is very likely to be worse than 2008, by orders of magnitude.
I would be astonished if this doesn't damage the Government at least somewhat.
This is just the time we need a competent opposition. The good news is we seem like we're about to get one.
We could see a government of national unity. It is that serious. This is probably going to be like a big, nasty war.
So, yeah, it is good Corbyn has gone.
More nonsensical hyperbole.
Have you decided yet whether you actually had it - and hence should be reassuring people that for non-elderly healthy people it’s not that big a deal - or didn’t have it, and simply wasted a lot of NHS time with your absurd panicking?
Listen: I really really really REALLY hope I am wrong. I hope you get to mock me on here for the rest of time. That is the honest truth.
But I have spent a long time thinking about this, and reading about this, and it is this that informs my pessimism: information.
Unfortunately I have been right on all my predictions, to date, and it doesn't look like that is about to change soon.
But I no longer wish to argue with you, let alone exchange insults. It's pointless. We are all facing up to something horrible, and we are all human, and we are all scared, and anxious. You, me, Topping, TSE. We are all in the same boat.
Good luck, old boy. And I mean it.
Experience suggests that spending a lot of time on google isn’t a good way to arrive at a balanced judgement.
You haven’t been right about anything so far (apart from selling shares, advice echoed by many, myself included). It’s too early to tell.
Try and act the responsible citizen. You know you didn’t have Coronavirus, and panicked unnecessarily. At least you can be honest about that,
Any PB regular knows that he’s a drama queen. By the sound of it, it didn’t take the NHS that long to work out the same.
The alternative being to believe that Sean is actually UK Patient Zero.
It does seem to me that eadric is in the position of someone on 15/4/12 pointing out in relatively measured terms that the ship has actually hit an iceberg, is actually sinking, and that there are actually not enough lifeboats. The suggestion that seeking advice from PHE, and following it, is the wrong thing to do sets a new standard of batshittery (not to say irresponsibility).
And his advice four weeks ago to get out of equities was the most valuable I have ever acted on.
I agree selling equities recently was wise, and did so myself. Whether it was valuable advice in the medium term depends on what happens to the markets while you are out of them.
My advice - from last weekend onwards - to take sell positions on the Dow and FTSE, and sell GBP/CHF - would actually have delivered you a profit (rather than just an avoided loss) this week.
What's PB consencus (is there ever such a thing?) about when the stock exchanges will hit bottom and start to rise?
My guess, and its nothing more, is that they have at least another 20% to fall. The virus is a major factor but there are others, notably the bubble of the last few years. They were getting to the point when something, anything, was going to cause a major correction. The fact it turned out to be something serious has just added fuel to the fire.
Off-topic: it is St David's Day and apparently he is the patron saint of both Wales and bad puns. This from the Welsh Government, promoting local food and Welsh-inspired (hmm) recipes:
The chances of a UK recession within the next five years I'd say are pretty likely.
I wonder if this will shred the Tory economic credentials as per 1992?
It will. And the combination of Covid ("It started in China") and Brexit ("But the EU are struggling too") could be politically terminal.
Odd to be saying this now, but this could well be the last Conservative government that many of us will see in our lifetimes.
And just how many times has that been said?
Fair point and you know how wrong I have been in the past.
But in every recent recession or economic disaster the sitting Government has been badly impacted by it.
Perhaps we now live in different times and Johnson manages to not let anything else stick to him - but I would be surprised if they don't take a hit in support.
Perhaps their response to it will be the more pressing thing. Austerity will surely have to come back if such a thing happens, they surely won't invest in a Keynesian style?
Not to mention they don't have much room on borrowing or interest rates. Fundamentally the economy is pretty badly setup for any event - they've been in Government for 9 years, can't blame Labour this time.
Not arguing that it won't have an impact. But no Tory government for the next fifty or so years? Not sure anyone can confidently claim that.
Any PB regular knows that he’s a drama queen. By the sound of it, it didn’t take the NHS that long to work out the same.
The alternative being to believe that Sean is actually UK Patient Zero.
It does seem to me that eadric is in the position of someone on 15/4/12 pointing out in relatively measured terms that the ship has actually hit an iceberg, is actually sinking, and that there are actually not enough lifeboats. The suggestion that seeking advice from PHE, and following it, is the wrong thing to do sets a new standard of batshittery (not to say irresponsibility).
And his advice four weeks ago to get out of equities was the most valuable I have ever acted on.
I agree selling equities recently was wise, and did so myself. Whether it was valuable advice in the medium term depends on what happens to the markets while you are out of them.
My advice - from last weekend onwards - to take sell positions on the Dow and FTSE, and sell GBP/CHF - would actually have delivered you a profit (rather than just an avoided loss) this week.
What's PB consencus (is there ever such a thing?) about when the stock exchanges will hit bottom and start to rise?
I was pretty good at calling every move last week, except for Thursday close. But that was mostly luck.
Calling the markets isn’t about what you think will happen - but about what you think the herd will think will happen.
My default case was a drop to Dow 24,000, then indecision as summer starts to slow the virus’s progression, a slow recovery during the summer months, and then a further crash in the autumn.
However following the first US death and growing concern that the US has made a hash of its early response to the crisis, I am starting to wonder whether we will be in for another torrid week.
If there is any buying next week, I would be surprised if it doesn’t run into renewed selling.
I used to regularly read James Delingpole to challenge myself. I eventually twigged he was a thin skinned troll who loved to dish it out but couldn't take it. Whining about being silenced from his regular newspaper column.
His descent has between pretty impressive.
Delingpole IS a challenge, I agree. If you can get through one of his, nothing skipped, spirit intact, you are quite a soldier.
The chances of a UK recession within the next five years I'd say are pretty likely.
I wonder if this will shred the Tory economic credentials as per 1992?
It will. And the combination of Covid ("It started in China") and Brexit ("But the EU are struggling too") could be politically terminal.
Odd to be saying this now, but this could well be the last Conservative government that many of us will see in our lifetimes.
And just how many times has that been said?
Fair point and you know how wrong I have been in the past.
But in every recent recession or economic disaster the sitting Government has been badly impacted by it.
Perhaps we now live in different times and Johnson manages to not let anything else stick to him - but I would be surprised if they don't take a hit in support.
Perhaps their response to it will be the more pressing thing. Austerity will surely have to come back if such a thing happens, they surely won't invest in a Keynesian style?
Not to mention they don't have much room on borrowing or interest rates. Fundamentally the economy is pretty badly setup for any event - they've been in Government for 9 years, can't blame Labour this time.
Not arguing that it won't have an impact. But no Tory government for the next fifty or so years? Not sure anyone can confidently claim that.
Oh I wasn't claiming that, I was thinking a minority Government is quite possibly the outcome though.
Can't think Johnson will increase his majority in 2024.
On the upside, for Remainers, Brexit will likely be postponed, or cancelled. Or just forgotten.
It is about to become a triviality.
Actually the opposite is true.
You do know brexit cannot be cancelled, it has already happened
And while I have complimented you previously on your contributions, the discussions on this forum today give rise to my doubts and agree, as other posters seem to say, that you do seem to be a doomster and possess a doubtful medical record on your own experiences with the virus
On the upside, for Remainers, Brexit will likely be postponed, or cancelled. Or just forgotten.
It is about to become a triviality.
Actually the opposite is true.
You do know brexit cannot be cancelled, it has already happened
And while I have complimented you previously on your contributions, the discussions on this forum today give rise to my doubts and agree, as other posters seem to say, that you do seem to be a doomster and possess a doubtful medical record on your own experiences with the virus
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
I heard similar stuff, albeit only a month of lockdown last Sunday. The thing that worries me is that medical professionals are taking this very seriously compared to the average person, whereas normally it's the public doing the panicking.
The issue primarily is that the UK (and all other countries) aren't geared for a mass infection event like this.
People panicking aren't helping.
I was discussing the impact of the Black Death in relation to this, with a friend. He reckons a pandemic of that type would hit us far harder than a medieval society. Medieval people either grew their own food, or were very close to those who did. We depend on supply chains that would break down within days.
Imagine 40% of the UK's population dying in 18 months. There would be total chaos.
What is it with you Seans? Even the other Sean is ‘only’ predicting 3% (2 million).
We might end up all thanking Tony Blair for his far sighted Civil Contingencies Act.
Nah. The crown does what ever it needs to do and sorts the legal mess out afterwards. During foot and mouth the government policy and behaviour of destroying herds in anticipation of infection was done ultra vires. Soldiers and contractors marched onto land and killed thousands of beasts without the authority to do so.
Farmers of course were suitably compensated afterwards.
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
I heard similar stuff, albeit only a month of lockdown last Sunday. The thing that worries me is that medical professionals are taking this very seriously compared to the average person, whereas normally it's the public doing the panicking.
The issue primarily is that the UK (and all other countries) aren't geared for a mass infection event like this.
People panicking aren't helping.
I was discussing the impact of the Black Death in relation to this, with a friend. He reckons a pandemic of that type would hit us far harder than a medieval society. Medieval people either grew their own food, or were very close to those who did. We depend on supply chains that would break down within days.
Imagine 40% of the UK's population dying in 18 months. There would be total chaos.
It would result in the collapse of society and could easily take us back to an earlier time in terms of economic development.
The chances of a UK recession within the next five years I'd say are pretty likely.
I wonder if this will shred the Tory economic credentials as per 1992?
It will. And the combination of Covid ("It started in China") and Brexit ("But the EU are struggling too") could be politically terminal.
Odd to be saying this now, but this could well be the last Conservative government that many of us will see in our lifetimes.
And just how many times has that been said?
Fair point and you know how wrong I have been in the past.
But in every recent recession or economic disaster the sitting Government has been badly impacted by it.
Perhaps we now live in different times and Johnson manages to not let anything else stick to him - but I would be surprised if they don't take a hit in support.
Perhaps their response to it will be the more pressing thing. Austerity will surely have to come back if such a thing happens, they surely won't invest in a Keynesian style?
Not to mention they don't have much room on borrowing or interest rates. Fundamentally the economy is pretty badly setup for any event - they've been in Government for 9 years, can't blame Labour this time.
Not arguing that it won't have an impact. But no Tory government for the next fifty or so years? Not sure anyone can confidently claim that.
Oh I wasn't claiming that, I was thinking a minority Government is quite possibly the outcome though.
Can't think Johnson will increase his majority in 2024.
Yeah, but my original comment wasn't in reply to you. It was @kinabalu who made the claim.
We might end up all thanking Tony Blair for his far sighted Civil Contingencies Act.
Nah, that should have been repealed years ago. No reason why temporary emergency powers can’t be passed when required, as happened with the Prevention of Terrorism Act years ago.
On the upside, for Remainers, Brexit will likely be postponed, or cancelled. Or just forgotten.
It is about to become a triviality.
Actually the opposite is true.
You do know brexit cannot be cancelled, it has already happened
And while I have complimented you previously on your contributions, the discussions on this forum today give rise to my doubts and agree, as other posters seem to say, that you do seem to be a doomster and possess a doubtful medical record on your own experiences with the virus
Can't help feeling this comedy routine is getting a little worn now. It was genuinely funny and imaginative when it started but its becoming a cliche of itself.
Of course free speech is not consequence-free speech, but what about cases like Maya Forstater? She expressed views on a big issue of the day, made clear she was doing so in a personal capacity, and lost a job that had nothing to do with those views all the same. A judge then proclaimed that her views (i.e. biological sex is real, immutable, and important) were 'not worthy of respect in a democratic society' and her employers were within their rights to do as they had. Chilling.
The chances of a UK recession within the next five years I'd say are pretty likely.
I wonder if this will shred the Tory economic credentials as per 1992?
It will. And the combination of Covid ("It started in China") and Brexit ("But the EU are struggling too") could be politically terminal.
Odd to be saying this now, but this could well be the last Conservative government that many of us will see in our lifetimes.
And just how many times has that been said?
Fair point and you know how wrong I have been in the past.
But in every recent recession or economic disaster the sitting Government has been badly impacted by it.
Perhaps we now live in different times and Johnson manages to not let anything else stick to him - but I would be surprised if they don't take a hit in support.
Perhaps their response to it will be the more pressing thing. Austerity will surely have to come back if such a thing happens, they surely won't invest in a Keynesian style?
Not to mention they don't have much room on borrowing or interest rates. Fundamentally the economy is pretty badly setup for any event - they've been in Government for 9 years, can't blame Labour this time.
Not arguing that it won't have an impact. But no Tory government for the next fifty or so years? Not sure anyone can confidently claim that.
Oh I wasn't claiming that, I was thinking a minority Government is quite possibly the outcome though.
Can't think Johnson will increase his majority in 2024.
If you listen to 'eadric' few of us will be around in 2024
Indeed I may not make it out of my teenage years as yesterday was my 19th birthday (29th February)
The chances of a UK recession within the next five years I'd say are pretty likely.
I wonder if this will shred the Tory economic credentials as per 1992?
It will. And the combination of Covid ("It started in China") and Brexit ("But the EU are struggling too") could be politically terminal.
Odd to be saying this now, but this could well be the last Conservative government that many of us will see in our lifetimes.
And just how many times has that been said?
Fair point and you know how wrong I have been in the past.
But in every recent recession or economic disaster the sitting Government has been badly impacted by it.
Perhaps we now live in different times and Johnson manages to not let anything else stick to him - but I would be surprised if they don't take a hit in support.
Perhaps their response to it will be the more pressing thing. Austerity will surely have to come back if such a thing happens, they surely won't invest in a Keynesian style?
Not to mention they don't have much room on borrowing or interest rates. Fundamentally the economy is pretty badly setup for any event - they've been in Government for 9 years, can't blame Labour this time.
Not arguing that it won't have an impact. But no Tory government for the next fifty or so years? Not sure anyone can confidently claim that.
Oh I wasn't claiming that, I was thinking a minority Government is quite possibly the outcome though.
Can't think Johnson will increase his majority in 2024.
Few thought that the Tory vote share would increase in every single one of the 6 general elections from 2001 to 2019 either...
The manufacturing heart of the planet no longer beating. The disruption that is going to cause to ever longer supply chains for almost all manufactures of any complexity is almost immeasurable. For me this virus remains more of an economic crisis than a health one. But its not going to be good.
Apparently in terms of manufacturing one of the benefits of the virus hitting at Chinese New Year is that most companies had already stockpiled for the 2 week or so shutdown / slowdown due to the holidays, and so the supply chain isn't quite as badly hit as if it had been another time of year.
Yes, I agree that is why the impact of this has been deferred. But those 2 weeks are now up and we are not close to getting back to normal.
First time I've ever said it. We are about to see what happens when a deep and complex crisis occurs on the watch of a government sorely lacking in competence. Such a combination is unique in modern times.
On free speech it's interesting how things have flipped since the 1960s when you could usually count on conservatives to be more in favour of limiting it than liberals with people like Mary Whitehouse campaigning to restrict free speech.
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
I heard similar stuff, albeit only a month of lockdown last Sunday. The thing that worries me is that medical professionals are taking this very seriously compared to the average person, whereas normally it's the public doing the panicking.
The issue primarily is that the UK (and all other countries) aren't geared for a mass infection event like this.
People panicking aren't helping.
Yeah, I guess that the main upside of our testing and containment programme is that it gives us more time to prepare and source equipment before it cuts loose. And of course we'll have data from France and Germany (who seem to be 4-7 days ahead of us on community spread) to inform out triage and quarantine approach, plus of course those crucial few days closer to summer.
Experience suggests that spending a lot of time on google isn’t a good way to arrive at a balanced judgement.
You haven’t been right about anything so far (apart from selling shares, advice echoed by many, myself included). It’s too early to tell.
Try and act the responsible citizen. You know you didn’t have Coronavirus, and panicked unnecessarily. At least you can be honest about that,
You want reassurance?
OK, I can do that. The honest answer (you can choose whether to believe me), is that I suspect I did have it. My unusual symptoms ticked the boxes, hence the reaction of PHE: go straight to hospital, right now, get tested, we've arranged it for you.: Then came the confusion....
But I cannot know if I had it, and my belief may be warped by the fact that if I DID have it, I have some immunity now. It may be wishful thinking.
So let's say, for argument's sake, that I DID have it. What is it like? Weirdly, not that bad. Not as bad as normal flu (which I have also had) which is completely horrid and makes you bedridden. With this bug it fluctuates, you can feel normal one minute, then fairly ghastly the next, but then almost normal again for a few more hours. You're not permanently bed-ridden.
This fits the medical analysis that for most people it is mild, if not unnoticeable.
As I understand it, the problems come with a second wave, when the virus goes into attack again (if you haven't shaken it off).
I hope that helps.
If you had it, then you should be reassuring people that the end of the world isn’t nigh.
But I strongly suspect that you didn’t have it. The timing would have put you right at the front end of cases outside China, which is hardly credible. The NHS response - even as described from your own partial viewpoint - suggests that they didn’t really take you seriously. And your long track record on PB as our Panicky Wuss Zero speaks for itself.
Sorry.
As for financial markets, that’s a different question. There are a lot of people like you out there.
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
Wait, the entirety of the UK will work from home for two months?
I work in technology, that's no issue for me. But it's surely going to fuck other industries.
I suspect that I will not be working from home!
Indeed both Mrs Foxy and I are likely to be quite occupied there.
First time I've ever said it. We are about to see what happens when a deep and complex crisis occurs on the watch of a government sorely lacking in competence. Such a combination is unique in modern times.
Is this satire?
I suspect that if eadric et al. are right then then the government will likely get a pass based on it being a proper black swan.
The manufacturing heart of the planet no longer beating. The disruption that is going to cause to ever longer supply chains for almost all manufactures of any complexity is almost immeasurable. For me this virus remains more of an economic crisis than a health one. But its not going to be good.
Apparently in terms of manufacturing one of the benefits of the virus hitting at Chinese New Year is that most companies had already stockpiled for the 2 week or so shutdown / slowdown due to the holidays, and so the supply chain isn't quite as badly hit as if it had been another time of year.
Yes, I agree that is why the impact of this has been deferred. But those 2 weeks are now up and we are not close to getting back to normal.
You may have answered my question earlier, but I did not see it.
Can you tell me why you are less pessimistic about the health effects of all this?
Honest query! It would be nice to hear something cheerful.
The economic effects are going to be greater than the health ones
Furthermore, I am not one to pander to doom and gloom predictions
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
I heard similar stuff, albeit only a month of lockdown last Sunday. The thing that worries me is that medical professionals are taking this very seriously compared to the average person, whereas normally it's the public doing the panicking.
The issue primarily is that the UK (and all other countries) aren't geared for a mass infection event like this.
People panicking aren't helping.
I was discussing the impact of the Black Death in relation to this, with a friend. He reckons a pandemic of that type would hit us far harder than a medieval society. Medieval people either grew their own food, or were very close to those who did. We depend on supply chains that would break down within days.
Imagine 40% of the UK's population dying in 18 months. There would be total chaos.
What is it with you Seans? Even the other Sean is ‘only’ predicting 3% (2 million).
Who is fear mongering here? I am not *definitely* predicting any such thing. There is a range of outcomes.
Just a quick smile at your responding to a comment aimed at the other Sean
The manufacturing heart of the planet no longer beating. The disruption that is going to cause to ever longer supply chains for almost all manufactures of any complexity is almost immeasurable. For me this virus remains more of an economic crisis than a health one. But its not going to be good.
Apparently in terms of manufacturing one of the benefits of the virus hitting at Chinese New Year is that most companies had already stockpiled for the 2 week or so shutdown / slowdown due to the holidays, and so the supply chain isn't quite as badly hit as if it had been another time of year.
Yes, I agree that is why the impact of this has been deferred. But those 2 weeks are now up and we are not close to getting back to normal.
You may have answered my question earlier, but I did not see it.
Can you tell me why you are less pessimistic about the health effects of all this?
Honest query! It would be nice to hear something cheerful.
I did answer it. I said:
We've discussed this before. In Wuhan the infection rate is something like 5%. The death rate is maybe 2% and its a lot less everywhere else where modern medical facilities are available. Singapore has shown that it is possible to prevent the spread of this condition by diligent follow up of infections. So far the NHS is world leading in testing and monitoring. Assuming these defences are eventually overcome we are probably looking at fatalities similar in scale to a bad flu outbreak. Very unfortunate for those (mainly elderly and sick) who succumb but of no great materiality for those who don't.
But I really don't see how we now avoid quite a serious, if brief, recession.
The danger for Trump is when people start dying in large numbers. People will lose loved one and will be looking for someone to blame. The guy in charge of the response that called it a hoax will be the primary party to do that to.
The manufacturing heart of the planet no longer beating. The disruption that is going to cause to ever longer supply chains for almost all manufactures of any complexity is almost immeasurable. For me this virus remains more of an economic crisis than a health one. But its not going to be good.
Apparently in terms of manufacturing one of the benefits of the virus hitting at Chinese New Year is that most companies had already stockpiled for the 2 week or so shutdown / slowdown due to the holidays, and so the supply chain isn't quite as badly hit as if it had been another time of year.
Yes, I agree that is why the impact of this has been deferred. But those 2 weeks are now up and we are not close to getting back to normal.
You may have answered my question earlier, but I did not see it.
Can you tell me why you are less pessimistic about the health effects of all this?
Honest query! It would be nice to hear something cheerful.
I did answer it. I said:
We've discussed this before. In Wuhan the infection rate is something like 5%. The death rate is maybe 2% and its a lot less everywhere else where modern medical facilities are available. Singapore has shown that it is possible to prevent the spread of this condition by diligent follow up of infections. So far the NHS is world leading in testing and monitoring. Assuming these defences are eventually overcome we are probably looking at fatalities similar in scale to a bad flu outbreak. Very unfortunate for those (mainly elderly and sick) who succumb but of no great materiality for those who don't.
But I really don't see how we now avoid quite a serious, if brief, recession.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%. Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%. Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%. Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Generally as long as one receives adequate medical care, and has no pre-existing vulnerabilities, they would be exceptionally unlikely to die. The issue comes that when there is no adequate care the mortality rate skyrockets to 5%+.
At what point do we reach that point, given the localised nature of people getting ill? Maybe 20-30k total simultaneous cases, if not substantially less.
Experience suggests that spending a lot of time on google isn’t a good way to arrive at a balanced judgement.
You haven’t been right about anything so far (apart from selling shares, advice echoed by many, myself included). It’s too early to tell.
Try and act the responsible citizen. You know you didn’t have Coronavirus, and panicked unnecessarily. At least you can be honest about that,
You want reassurance?
OK, I ca
I hope that helps.
If you had it, then you should be reassuring people that the end of the world isn’t nigh.
But I strongly suspect that you didn’t have it. The timing would have put you right at the front end of cases outside China, which is hardly credible. The NHS response - even as described from your own partial viewpoint - suggests that they didn’t really take you seriously. And your long track record on PB as our Panicky Wuss Zero speaks for itself.
Sorry.
As for financial markets, that’s a different question. There are a lot of people like you out there.
This is the last time we will discuss this, or I will become irritated with you, once again. Which is a waste of energy right now.
After I discharged myself from the hospital - with UCL and PHE still arguing about me - I went home, and thought, well that's that. I'll get better, and hear no more of it.
The next day a doctor from my GP called (something which has never happened before) and urgently asked me to self isolate. That indicates to me that their concerns were real.
And now, let's draw a final line under this. You are free to believe what you like.
It was the safest thing to advise, when faced with a panicking idiot like you. They were simply covering their backs.
Italy is about two weeks ahead of us, France and Germany one week.
And yet in neither of those countries am I reading about widespread panic, societal breakdown, looting, people being welded into their apartamentos etc.
The danger for Trump is when people start dying in large numbers. People will lose loved one and will be looking for someone to blame. The guy in charge of the response that called it a hoax will be the primary party to do that to.
I hope that you would be correct in such circumstances, but fear that Trump could easily persuade his supporters that immigration and globalisation, and the open US borders, are the problem. His administration could also quite easily use a pandemic to excuse all sorts of actions in terms of security and the economy that might boost his chances. If it's really bad the election itself could be materially affected, the Americans seem to have enough trouble voting in normal times, amid a pandemic where all sorts of extreme measures are active it might really skew the vote.
One thing is certain, Trump and the GOP are not above using the spread of the coronavirus to help get him re-elected.
The manufacturing heart of the planet no longer beating. The disruption that is going to cause to ever longer supply chains for almost all manufactures of any complexity is almost immeasurable. For me this virus remains more of an economic crisis than a health one. But its not going to be good.
Apparently in terms of manufacturing one of the benefits of the virus hitting at Chinese New Year is that most companies had already stockpiled for the 2 week or so shutdown / slowdown due to the holidays, and so the supply chain isn't quite as badly hit as if it had been another time of year.
Yes, I agree that is why the impact of this has been deferred. But those 2 weeks are now up and we are not close to getting back to normal.
You may have answered my question earlier, but I did not see it.
Can you tell me why you are less pessimistic about the health effects of all this?
Honest query! It would be nice to hear something cheerful.
The economic effects are going to be greater than the health ones
Furthermore, I am not one to pander to doom and gloom predictions
Why do you believe that, about economic harm versus health issues?
Because I believe the virus will not be as deadly as doomsters are predicting and the measures to contain it will cause medium term economic harm across the globe
There is a review of face masks on the BMJ from a few years ago. Only a few trials but some evidence that they, the proper masks not the cloth ones, reduce the risk of infection in a community setting. So there is that. Plus the fact that everyone in a clinical environment is being fit tested for masks. Why would every major country adopt what is essentially an unhelpful policy? Unlikely. So I'm of the view that a properly fitted, high grade mask for trips out will reduce your risk.
The public health message that face masks don't work sounds like a purposeful myth designed to a) stop people fighting over these items and any fear associated with not having one; b) prevent a moral hazard occurring whereby people with masks stop helpful behaviour such as washing hands; c) cognisant that your average Jo's masks is unlikely to be well fitted or of sufficient quality to be of use; d) protect stock for HCPs.
I bet some people during WW2 genuinely believed that eating carrots improved their eyesight.
Masks convey little benefit and, improperly used as they mostly are by untrained members of the public, may well do more harm than good, since keep touching your mask to adjust it - as most of us untrained folks tend to do - makes it a risk rather than a precaution.
At least we aren’t doing what many Iranians are doing - according to this lunchtime’s R4 news - and going to lick the shrines of Islamic holy men to demonstrate our faith in our religion’s ability to save us. People queuing to lick the same stone as hundreds of people before them is hardly optimum right now.
Good for you but I don't agree on the masks and have explained why.
I agree on the Iranians.
Masks work in limited contexts, such as laboratory workers and healthcare professionals who are more likely to be exposed than others. They do not work when misused. In addition to the misuses Ian lists, there is the additional one of people wearing them too long, when they become saturated with moisture from exhaled breath and thereafter become aerosol generators.
If masks end up in short supply and widely used by the public, it is almost a given that many people will wear their masks longer than they should and hence become aerosol generators. This, combined with their own misplaced confidence in the protection, will, IMO, have a major deleterious affect on the overall public health outcome - as you'll have unprotected people acting as if they are protected all the while that they have turned themselves into efficient aerosol generators.
I’m starting to get seriously worried now, I just don’t see how it’s containable unless everyone stops travelling to or from the place about a fortnight ago.
We had some medical professionals over today for brunch.
Their view was a two month self isolation for most of the country, anyone returning to the UK gets put in a government secure site.
Hopefully that'll delay the peak until the summer when we should theoretically better able to deal with it.
I heard similar stuff, albeit only a month of lockdown last Sunday. The thing that worries me is that medical professionals are taking this very seriously compared to the average person, whereas normally it's the public doing the panicking.
The issue primarily is that the UK (and all other countries) aren't geared for a mass infection event like this.
People panicking aren't helping.
I was discussing the impact of the Black Death in relation to this, with a friend. He reckons a pandemic of that type would hit us far harder than a medieval society. Medieval people either grew their own food, or were very close to those who did. We depend on supply chains that would break down within days.
Imagine 40% of the UK's population dying in 18 months. There would be total chaos.
What is it with you Seans? Even the other Sean is ‘only’ predicting 3% (2 million).
Oh, I'm not expecting anything like that. I just think it's interesting to imagine what it would be like.
I'm not expecting anything on the scale of the Spanish flu of 1918/19 either.
If you had it, then you should be reassuring people that the end of the world isn’t nigh.
But I strongly suspect that you didn’t have it. The timing would have put you right at the front end of cases outside China, which is hardly credible. The NHS response - even as described from your own partial viewpoint - suggests that they didn’t really take you seriously. And your long track record on PB as our Panicky Wuss Zero speaks for itself.
Sorry.
As for financial markets, that’s a different question. There are a lot of people like you out there.
This is the last time we will discuss this, or I will become irritated with you, once again. Which is a waste of energy right now.
After I discharged myself from the hospital - with UCL and PHE still arguing about me - I went home, and thought, well that's that. I'll get better, and hear no more of it.
The next day a doctor from my GP called (something which has never happened before) and urgently asked me to self isolate. That indicates to me that their concerns were real.
And now, let's draw a final line under this. You are free to believe what you like.
It was the safest thing to advise, when faced with a panicking idiot like you. They were simply covering their backs.
Not wasting your energy would be good advice.
You're scared and angry. I get it. Enough now.
Not so much. I have a trip arranged to the Bergamo area of Italy for May, which I I’d quite like to make. I haven’t cancelled, let’s see what happens, Meanwhile I am following the panic with sufficient interest to try and make a call on how it will affect financial markets, having made a handsome profit from doing so last week. Angry; at what?
This, inter alia, is one reason I think Brexit might end up being paused.
Yes, will Johnson really walk out of talks and refuse to extend the transition if we're in the midst of a serious health crisis? It would make him look like a crazed ideologue.
The manufacturing heart of the planet no longer beating. The disruption that is going to cause to ever longer supply chains for almost all manufactures of any complexity is almost immeasurable. For me this virus remains more of an economic crisis than a health one. But its not going to be good.
Apparently in terms of manufacturing one of the benefits of the virus hitting at Chinese New Year is that most companies had already stockpiled for the 2 week or so shutdown / slowdown due to the holidays, and so the supply chain isn't quite as badly hit as if it had been another time of year.
Yes, I agree that is why the impact of this has been deferred. But those 2 weeks are now up and we are not close to getting back to normal.
You may have answered my question earlier, but I did not see it.
Can you tell me why you are less pessimistic about the health effects of all this?
Honest query! It would be nice to hear something cheerful.
I did answer it. I said:
We've discusserly and sick) who succumb but of no great materiality for those who don't.
But I really don't see how we now avoid quite a serious, if brief, recession.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%. Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%. Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%. Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Generally as long as one receives adequate medical care, and has no pre-existing vulnerabilities, they would be exceptionally unlikely to die. The issue comes that when there is no adequate care the mortality rate skyrockets to 5%+.
At what point do we reach that point, given the localised nature of people getting ill? Maybe 20-30k total simultaneous cases, if not substantially less.
Yes, that's the tipping point.
Basically, the government needs to pouring all its money, time, resources and energy into the Health Service, because if it collapses, we're f*cked
This, inter alia, is one reason I think Brexit might end up being paused.
I don't know if you missed this, but... errr... Brexit has already happened.
Now, could the implementation period be extended? Yes, that's a possible.
The manufacturing heart of the planet no longer beating. The disruption that is going to cause to ever longer supply chains for almost all manufactures of any complexity is almost immeasurable. For me this virus remains more of an economic crisis than a health one. But its not going to be good.
Apparently in terms of manufacturing one of the benefits of the virus hitting at Chinese New Year is that most companies had already stockpiled for the 2 week or so shutdown / slowdown due to the holidays, and so the supply chain isn't quite as badly hit as if it had been another time of year.
Yes, I agree that is why the impact of this has been deferred. But those 2 weeks are now up and we are not close to getting back to normal.
You may have answered my question earlier, but I did not see it.
Can you tell me why you are less pessimistic about the health effects of all this?
Honest query! It would be nice to hear something cheerful.
I did answer it. I said:
We've discusserly and sick) who succumb but of no great materiality for those who don't.
But I really don't see how we now avoid quite a serious, if brief, recession.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%. Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%. Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%. Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Generally as long as one receives adequate medical care, and has no pre-existing vulnerabilities, they would be exceptionally unlikely to die. The issue comes that when there is no adequate care the mortality rate skyrockets to 5%+.
At what point do we reach that point, given the localised nature of people getting ill? Maybe 20-30k total simultaneous cases, if not substantially less.
Yes, that's the tipping point.
Basically, the government needs to pouring all its money, time, resources and energy into the Health Service, because if it collapses, we're f*cked
This, inter alia, is one reason I think Brexit might end up being paused.
This, inter alia, is one reason I think Brexit might end up being paused.
Yes, will Johnson really walk out of talks and refuse to extend the transition if we're in the midst of a serious health crisis? It would make him look like a crazed ideologue.
Of course free speech is not consequence-free speech, but what about cases like Maya Forstater? She expressed views on a big issue of the day, made clear she was doing so in a personal capacity, and lost a job that had nothing to do with those views all the same. A judge then proclaimed that her views (i.e. biological sex is real, immutable, and important) were 'not worthy of respect in a democratic society' and her employers were within their rights to do as they had. Chilling.
She didn't lose a job, she was on a contract and didn't have her contract renewed.
Further more her job was to do fund raising which required making personal contact with hundreds of people, third parties personal opinion of her were hugely relevant to getting a new contract.
Yes, that's what I mean. I should say "the Brexit process" perhaps. There is a reasonable chance it will be paused, as we deal with more pressing matters.
The idea we will want to put greater obstacles along supply chains even as these break down is fanciful, to me.
Yes, that's what I mean. I should say "the Brexit process" perhaps. There is a reasonable chance it will be paused, as we deal with more pressing matters.
The idea we will want to put greater obstacles along supply chains even as these break down is fanciful, to me.
Yes, I think that's very plausible. (And probably wouldn't be a bad thing, reducing tension.)
Any PB regular knows that he’s a drama queen. By the sound of it, it didn’t take the NHS that long to work out the same.
The alternative being to believe that Sean is actually UK Patient Zero.
It does seem to me that eadric is in the position of someone on 15/4/12 pointing out in relatively measured terms that the ship has actually hit an iceberg, is actually sinking, and that there are actually not enough lifeboats. The suggestion that seeking advice from PHE, and following it, is the wrong thing to do sets a new standard of batshittery (not to say irresponsibility).
And his advice four weeks ago to get out of equities was the most valuable I have ever acted on.
I agree selling equities recently was wise, and did so myself. Whether it was valuable advice in the medium term depends on what happens to the markets while you are out of them.
My advice - from last weekend onwards - to take sell positions on the Dow and FTSE, and sell GBP/CHF - would actually have delivered you a profit (rather than just an avoided loss) this week.
Really? I thought you weren't panicking four weeks ago, and the markets certainly weren't, so why would you have done that?
Anyway the difference is that eadric persuaded me, correctly *and contemporaneously*, that the world was changing. You didn't.
Experience suggests that spending a lot of time on google isn’t a good way to arrive at a balanced judgement.
You haven’t been right about anything so far (apart from selling shares, advice echoed by many, myself included). It’s too early to tell.
Try and act the responsible citizen. You know you didn’t have Coronavirus, and panicked unnecessarily. At least you can be honest about that,
You want reassurance?
OK, I ca
I hope that helps.
If you had it, then you should be reassuring people that the end of the world isn’t nigh.
But I strongly suspect that you didn’t have it. The timing would have put you right at the front end of cases outside China, which is hardly credible. The NHS response - even as described from your own partial viewpoint - suggests that they didn’t really take you seriously. And your long track record on PB as our Panicky Wuss Zero speaks for itself.
Sorry.
As for financial markets, that’s a different question. There are a lot of people like you out there.
This is the last time we will discuss this, or I will become irritated with you, once again. Which is a waste of energy right now.
After I discharged myself from the hospital - with UCL and PHE still arguing about me - I went home, and thought, well that's that. I'll get better, and hear no more of it.
Of course free speech is not consequence-free speech, but what about cases like Maya Forstater? She expressed views on a big issue of the day, made clear she was doing so in a personal capacity, and lost a job that had nothing to do with those views all the same. A judge then proclaimed that her views (i.e. biological sex is real, immutable, and important) were 'not worthy of respect in a democratic society' and her employers were within their rights to do as they had. Chilling.
She didn't lose a job, she was on a contract and didn't have her contract renewed.
Further more her job was to do fund raising which required making personal contact with hundreds of people, third parties personal opinion of her were hugely relevant to getting a new contract.
None of which factors are particularly relevant or should have an effect, unless the parties she was talking to were either incompetent or allowing their decisions to be coloured by personal prejudice.
Any competent funder or person making donations should be competent enough to distinguish between personal opinions of an employee and the organisation.
The danger for Trump is when people start dying in large numbers. People will lose loved one and will be looking for someone to blame. The guy in charge of the response that called it a hoax will be the primary party to do that to.
The problem for Trump is he is hopelessly out of his depth in the job and this is going to expose that fact to the American public. The nature of the crisis and the timing in election year is terrible for him.
The danger for Trump is when people start dying in large numbers. People will lose loved one and will be looking for someone to blame. The guy in charge of the response that called it a hoax will be the primary party to do that to.
The problem for Trump is he is hopelessly out of his depth in the job and this is going to expose that fact to the American public. The nature of the crisis and the timing in election year is terrible for him.
And the sad fact is the other options are useless as well
Yes, that's what I mean. I should say "the Brexit process" perhaps. There is a reasonable chance it will be paused, as we deal with more pressing matters.
The idea we will want to put greater obstacles along supply chains even as these break down is fanciful, to me.
Yes, I think that's very plausible. (And probably wouldn't be a bad thing, reducing tension.)
A new transition needs to agreed urgently, as I posted last week.
Of course free speech is not consequence-free speech, but what about cases like Maya Forstater? She expressed views on a big issue of the day, made clear she was doing so in a personal capacity, and lost a job that had nothing to do with those views all the same. A judge then proclaimed that her views (i.e. biological sex is real, immutable, and important) were 'not worthy of respect in a democratic society' and her employers were within their rights to do as they had. Chilling.
She didn't lose a job, she was on a contract and didn't have her contract renewed.
Further more her job was to do fund raising which required making personal contact with hundreds of people, third parties personal opinion of her were hugely relevant to getting a new contract.
So if she'd expressed stridently Remain opinions, or pro-Labour opinions, would it have been alright for the CGD to not renew her contract on those grounds? After all, a lot of people would disagree with her.
Yes, that's what I mean. I should say "the Brexit process" perhaps. There is a reasonable chance it will be paused, as we deal with more pressing matters.
The idea we will want to put greater obstacles along supply chains even as these break down is fanciful, to me.
Yes, I think that's very plausible. (And probably wouldn't be a bad thing, reducing tension.)
Comments
But I really don't see how we now avoid quite a serious, if brief, recession.
I'm fairly sure polling said for a long time the deal 80% of people would accept is basically EFTA. Shame we have a Government that is about to fuck our economy for the sake of winning an imaginary war.
Have you decided yet whether you actually had it - and hence should be reassuring people that for non-elderly healthy people it’s not that big a deal - or didn’t have it, and simply wasted a lot of NHS time with your absurd panicking?
People panicking aren't helping.
It will have to happen eventually so just do it early and get on with it.
I think that one's political views should be irrelevant to most occupations, however.
Odd to be saying this now, but this could well be the last Conservative government that many of us will see in our lifetimes.
I think YouGov did a poll based on preference voting and an EEA-style deal with FOM (once it was explained it applied both ways albeit), was the most popular Leave option.
I'd be perfectly content with that, I am not sure at all why we aren't doing it.
But in every recent recession or economic disaster the sitting Government has been badly impacted by it.
Perhaps we now live in different times and Johnson manages to not let anything else stick to him - but I would be surprised if they don't take a hit in support.
Perhaps their response to it will be the more pressing thing. Austerity will surely have to come back if such a thing happens, they surely won't invest in a Keynesian style?
Not to mention they don't have much room on borrowing or interest rates. Fundamentally the economy is pretty badly setup for any event - they've been in Government for 9 years, can't blame Labour this time.
Imagine 40% of the UK's population dying in 18 months. There would be total chaos.
You haven’t been right about anything so far (apart from selling shares, advice echoed by many, myself included). It’s too early to tell.
Try and act the responsible citizen. You know you didn’t have Coronavirus, and panicked unnecessarily. At least you can be honest about that,
JANET DALEY" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/29/coronavirus-climate-medieval-thinking-has-triggered-epidemic/
This St David's Day we invite you to 'Cwm Dine With Us'
https://gov.wales/st-davids-day-we-invite-you-cwm-dine-us
Calling the markets isn’t about what you think will happen - but about what you think the herd will think will happen.
My default case was a drop to Dow 24,000, then indecision as summer starts to slow the virus’s progression, a slow recovery during the summer months, and then a further crash in the autumn.
However following the first US death and growing concern that the US has made a hash of its early response to the crisis, I am starting to wonder whether we will be in for another torrid week.
If there is any buying next week, I would be surprised if it doesn’t run into renewed selling.
Can't think Johnson will increase his majority in 2024.
You do know brexit cannot be cancelled, it has already happened
And while I have complimented you previously on your contributions, the discussions on this forum today give rise to my doubts and agree, as other posters seem to say, that you do seem to be a doomster and possess a doubtful medical record on your own experiences with the virus
Farmers of course were suitably compensated afterwards.
https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/1233945983769305089
Indeed I may not make it out of my teenage years as yesterday was my 19th birthday (29th February)
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1477361/embed?auto=1
But I strongly suspect that you didn’t have it. The timing would have put you right at the front end of cases outside China, which is hardly credible. The NHS response - even as described from your own partial viewpoint - suggests that they didn’t really take you seriously. And your long track record on PB as our Panicky Wuss Zero speaks for itself.
Sorry.
As for financial markets, that’s a different question. There are a lot of people like you out there.
Indeed both Mrs Foxy and I are likely to be quite occupied there.
I suspect that if eadric et al. are right then then the government will likely get a pass based on it being a proper black swan.
Furthermore, I am not one to pander to doom and gloom predictions
Baden-Württemberg 15
Bavaria 23
Bremen 1
Hamburg 1
Hesse 8
Lower Saxony 1
Northrhine-Westphalia 74
Rhineland-Palatinate 2
Schleswig-Holstein 2
Repatriates 2
Total 129
NRW has blown up exceptionally quickly.
We've discussed this before. In Wuhan the infection rate is something like 5%. The death rate is maybe 2% and its a lot less everywhere else where modern medical facilities are available. Singapore has shown that it is possible to prevent the spread of this condition by diligent follow up of infections. So far the NHS is world leading in testing and monitoring. Assuming these defences are eventually overcome we are probably looking at fatalities similar in scale to a bad flu outbreak. Very unfortunate for those (mainly elderly and sick) who succumb but of no great materiality for those who don't.
But I really don't see how we now avoid quite a serious, if brief, recession.
Although I would of course fight to the death for the right of people to moan as much as they like about it.
Well I wouldn't, but you know what I mean.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#nhc
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Generally as long as one receives adequate medical care, and has no pre-existing vulnerabilities, they would be exceptionally unlikely to die. The issue comes that when there is no adequate care the mortality rate skyrockets to 5%+.
At what point do we reach that point, given the localised nature of people getting ill? Maybe 20-30k total simultaneous cases, if not substantially less.
Not wasting your energy would be good advice.
And yet in neither of those countries am I reading about widespread panic, societal breakdown, looting, people being welded into their apartamentos etc.
Keep calm, carry on and wash your hands.
https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1234119990128893953
One thing is certain, Trump and the GOP are not above using the spread of the coronavirus to help get him re-elected.
If masks end up in short supply and widely used by the public, it is almost a given that many people will wear their masks longer than they should and hence become aerosol generators. This, combined with their own misplaced confidence in the protection, will, IMO, have a major deleterious affect on the overall public health outcome - as you'll have unprotected people acting as if they are protected all the while that they have turned themselves into efficient aerosol generators.
I'm not expecting anything on the scale of the Spanish flu of 1918/19 either.
Now, could the implementation period be extended? Yes, that's a possible.
For the second time on this thread, we have left
You do not help your arguments
Further more her job was to do fund raising which required making personal contact with hundreds of people, third parties personal opinion of her were hugely relevant to getting a new contract.
Anyway the difference is that eadric persuaded me, correctly *and contemporaneously*, that the world was changing. You didn't.
Any competent funder or person making donations should be competent enough to distinguish between personal opinions of an employee and the organisation.
Anyhow, there is no shortage of concerning cases.
"The hyperbole is off the scale here this afternoon."
with
"+1000"
rather than "+1" IS a funny joke!
Unintended obviously, oh well