What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
The same thought occurred to me. Their chances of their getting on top of it depend to some extent on just how infectious it is, which we don’t really know with any certainty for now. The next two to three weeks will be ... interesting. And the next week will give us a very good idea of just how much of the increase is simply testing catching up from a standing start.
Iowa -- Betfair's spread on Bernie is 1.96 to back, 180 (no decimal point) to lay. When I started typing there was £800 available at 1.01 on Mayor Pete but someone (not me) has just taken it.
How long before large, non-essential gatherings of people are banned? I'm thinking here of concerts, festivals, sports events both indoor and outdoor, probably cinemas and theatres, etc, basically any event involving attendances of say more than say 500 people. Those with fewer than this number should only be allowed to go ahead if everyone present is provided with sanitized hand wipes or equivalent. If this problem looks set to get a whole lot worse which appears likely, it's surely better to take these sorts of precautions, rather than being faced with far more draconian ones later?
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Well we'll see. I think they have truncated several days of infections into the last 48 hours. Here's hoping anyway.
That’s fair comment, but IMO the difference is that Leslie Jones (and Anita Sarkeesian and others mentioned) made a fortune from their contemporary harrasment situation, whereas Toby Young was forced out of several jobs for his years-old comments.
He stepped down because of his visit to the secret eugenics conference not because the of his crass remarks. He was riding those out absolutely fine with his media mates giving it wall to wall "just a bit of bantz".
It was when the student paper got hold of the attendee list to the eugenics conference he walked
There were still plenty of anti-bacterial hand wipes in the local Sainsbury's yesterday. And lots of Dettol surface cleanser. The only sign that summat's up is the total absence anywhere of hand sanitizer.
I suppose we should credit panic shoppers with knowing their virus from their bacteria?
That would be a sign education standards have risen sharply.
How long before large, non-essential gatherings of people are banned? I'm thinking here of concerts, festivals, sports events both indoor and outdoor, probably cinemas and theatres, etc, basically any event involving attendances of say more than say 500 people. Those with fewer than this number should only be allowed to go ahead if everyone present is provided with sanitized hand wipes or equivalent. If this problem looks set to get a whole lot worse which appears likely, it's surely better to take these sorts of precautions, rather than being faced with far more draconian ones later?
As you know, both Japan and France are staging horse race meetings behind closed doors.
Could the same happen at Cheltenham? The races still happen so there's no hit to off-track and exchange betting and it provides entertainment for those in self-isolation. Would be eerie to ride in that race with empty stands and no roar from the crowd.
I agree with DavidL that SK will have it under control in a week or two. By “under control” I mean a declining rate of new cases.
I am also hopeful about Japan.
Italy and the US are the concerns at the moment, in both cases, authorities seem to be in some form of denial.
But overall I am optimistic. We can do this. We can do this without massively inconveniencing people, and we can do this without permanently damaging the economy.
PS is it just me or are Brexiters the main panickers?
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
The same thought occurred to me. Their chances of their getting on top of it depend to some extent on just how infectious it is, which we don’t really know with any certainty for now. The next two to three weeks will be ... interesting. And the next week will give us a very good idea of just how much of the increase is simply testing catching up from a standing start.
There's still a 30k test backlog apparently, but if any substantial country outside of China can get it under control I'd back SK. They've gone looking for it hard, have a good medical system, are paying people to be quarantined, and have big cultural pros, like mask wearing. However 4 of the 22 deaths now have been people waiting for ICU beds, so parts of their system are hitting upper limits of capabilities.
Italy is the more relevant study for the UK imo. Similar demographics and levels of societal control.
Because of our zealous testing we've won a 2 week headstart on Italy and a 1 week headstart on France, Germany, and Spain, which will hopefully give us a good idea of how much is catchup and how much is new spread.
A poor comparison. I can avoid road deaths by staying off the road or driving defensively.
If somebody in a restaurant kitchen has COVID-19 and gets it on food, they could infect people who are taking all sorts of precautions and even kill some of them. This is a common disease vector in the USA were people get fired for taking sick time. The CDC has said that 70% of Norovirus cases in the US are passed by infected food workers.
So 1.25m road traffic deaths each year are OK - because you can avoid being one of them. Whereas somebody preparing your food might kill YOU.
There speaks a liberal.....
Nicely taken out of context.....
In the first scenario, I have control over my destiny
In the second scenario, someone afflicts me with their disease.
That is why your comparison is invalid, but hey, never mind. Just get a quick ad-hom attack in since that seems to be your thing.
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Interesting.
At the moment Korea has 3700 cases. People differ on the doubling rate of cases, some say it doubles every 1.5 days, others every 2.5 days.
Let's say 2 days.
On that basis. South Korea will have 473,000 cases after two weeks, and 30 million cases by about week 3 and a half. After that the maths breaks down as the expected number of cases exceeds their population: everyone is infected.
Koreans really need DavidL to be right, and you to be wrong.
You are spouting garbage. A Malthusian obsession with maths at the expense of common sense.
How long before large, non-essential gatherings of people are banned? I'm thinking here of concerts, festivals, sports events both indoor and outdoor, probably cinemas and theatres, etc, basically any event involving attendances of say more than say 500 people. Those with fewer than this number should only be allowed to go ahead if everyone present is provided with sanitized hand wipes or equivalent. If this problem looks set to get a whole lot worse which appears likely, it's surely better to take these sorts of precautions, rather than being faced with far more draconian ones later?
As you know, both Japan and France are staging horse race meetings behind closed doors.
Could the same happen at Cheltenham? The races still happen so there's no hit to off-track and exchange betting and it provides entertainment for those in self-isolation. Would be eerie to ride in that race with empty stands and no roar from the crowd.
Cheltenham could be, though with travel from the largely uninfected Ireland, it would not be my first priority. The trouble with banning racing and football crowds and any schools with more than a few hundred pupils is duration. If we lock down the country now after a couple of dozen cases, how long before we can reopen?
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
The same thought occurred to me. Their chances of their getting on top of it depend to some extent on just how infectious it is, which we don’t really know with any certainty for now. The next two to three weeks will be ... interesting. And the next week will give us a very good idea of just how much of the increase is simply testing catching up from a standing start.
There's still a 30k test backlog apparently, but if any substantial country outside of China can get it under control I'd back SK. They've gone looking for it hard, have a good medical system, are paying people to be quarantined, and have big cultural pros, like mask wearing. However 4 of the 22 deaths now have been people waiting for ICU beds, so parts of their system are hitting upper limits of capabilities.
Italy is the more relevant study for the UK imo. Similar demographics and levels of societal control.
Because of our zealous testing we've won a 2 week headstart on Italy and a 1 week headstart on France, Germany, and Spain, which will hopefully give us a good idea of how much is catchup and how much is new spread.
Our zealous testing will help us later on. So far, though, it’s just good luck that we didn’t import a “superspreader” as Italy seems to have (France, Germany and Spain look largely to have picked it up from Italy too).
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Interesting.
At the moment Korea has 3700 cases. People differ on the doubling rate of cases, some say it doubles every 1.5 days, others every 2.5 days.
Let's say 2 days.
On that basis. South Korea will have 473,000 cases after two weeks, and 30 million cases by about week 3 and a half. After that the maths breaks down as the expected number of cases exceeds their population: everyone is infected.
Koreans really need DavidL to be right, and you to be wrong.
No, before the peak there will be a slowing of the rate of increase, though the daily numbers will continue to rise. We are on the steep part of the bell curve, but it is a curve, not linear.
I agree with DavidL that SK will have it under control in a week or two. By “under control” I mean a declining rate of new cases.
I am also hopeful about Japan.
Italy and the US are the concerns at the moment, in both cases, authorities seem to be in some form of denial.
But overall I am optimistic. We can do this. We can do this without massively inconveniencing people, and we can do this without permanently damaging the economy.
PS is it just me or are Brexiters the main panickers?
I am a Brexiteer and on the optimistic side. But those f******* loons in Iran are off the scale nuts. They could end up infecting half the middle east.
This, inter alia, is one reason I think Brexit might end up being paused.
Yes, will Johnson really walk out of talks and refuse to extend the transition if we're in the midst of a serious health crisis? It would make him look like a crazed ideologue.
Arguably Boris could say there is even more reason to end the transition and end free movement in the short term to ensure the borders are slammed shut and limit the number of coronavirus cases coming into the UK from abroad
Free movement has zero to do with border security. They could ground all flights on health grounds tomorrow if they wanted to.
They could but people could still come to the UK through Eurostar or by ferry from the EEA to seek work or travel or study via free movement
I agree with DavidL that SK will have it under control in a week or two. By “under control” I mean a declining rate of new cases.
I am also hopeful about Japan.
Italy and the US are the concerns at the moment, in both cases, authorities seem to be in some form of denial.
But overall I am optimistic. We can do this. We can do this without massively inconveniencing people, and we can do this without permanently damaging the economy.
PS is it just me or are Brexiters the main panickers?
I am a Brexiteer and on the optimistic side. But those f******* loons in Iran are off the scale nuts. They could end up infecting half the middle east.
Oh yes, everything I say excludes Iran, which seems utterly fucked.
We can only pray for them, and for those like Nazanin, stuck in Iranian prisons.
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Interesting.
At the moment Korea has 3700 cases. People differ on the doubling rate of cases, some say it doubles every 1.5 days, others every 2.5 days.
Let's say 2 days.
On that basis. South Korea will have 473,000 cases after two weeks, and 30 million cases by about week 3 and a half. After that the maths breaks down as the expected number of cases exceeds their population: everyone is infected.
Koreans really need DavidL to be right, and you to be wrong.
No, before the peak there will be a slowing of the rate of increase, though the daily numbers will continue to rise. We are on the steep part of the bell curve, but it is a curve, not linear.
Your graph is of infections not positive test results. If SK find the contacts of that loopy church and isolate them all the period when they are testing them will have very high results but after that infection should be much more modest. I think/hope that's where we are but it should be obvious very soon.
I agree with DavidL that SK will have it under control in a week or two. By “under control” I mean a declining rate of new cases.
I am also hopeful about Japan.
Italy and the US are the concerns at the moment, in both cases, authorities seem to be in some form of denial.
But overall I am optimistic. We can do this. We can do this without massively inconveniencing people, and we can do this without permanently damaging the economy.
PS is it just me or are Brexiters the main panickers?
I am a Brexiteer and on the optimistic side. But those f******* loons in Iran are off the scale nuts. They could end up infecting half the middle east.
Oh yes, everything I say excludes Iran, which seems utterly fucked.
We can only pray for them, and for those like Nazanin, stuck in Iranian prisons.
It would be ironic if after all the madness since 1979 it was a virus that finally persuaded the people of Iran to say, "enough".
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Interesting.
At the moment Korea has 3700 cases. People differ on the doubling rate of cases, some say it doubles every 1.5 days, others every 2.5 days.
Let's say 2 days.
On that basis. South Korea will have 473,000 cases after two weeks, and 30 million cases by about week 3 and a half. After that the maths breaks down as the expected number of cases exceeds their population: everyone is infected.
Koreans really need DavidL to be right, and you to be wrong.
No, before the peak there will be a slowing of the rate of increase, though the daily numbers will continue to rise. We are on the steep part of the bell curve, but it is a curve, not linear.
What do you think of the various predictions (at the nastier end of the scale) that 70-80% will ultimately be infected?
PS I agree it will slow in the end, because it has to. It will run out of people to infect so exponential growth has to stop
If we can't be reinfected then logic says that the slow down will occur much, much earlier as the virus comes into contact with more and more people with immunity. If.
I agree with DavidL that SK will have it under control in a week or two. By “under control” I mean a declining rate of new cases.
I am also hopeful about Japan.
Italy and the US are the concerns at the moment, in both cases, authorities seem to be in some form of denial.
But overall I am optimistic. We can do this. We can do this without massively inconveniencing people, and we can do this without permanently damaging the economy.
PS is it just me or are Brexiters the main panickers?
I agree. We shouldn't ban large meetings. It's up to individuals if they want to to take the risk. Same with buses and tubes. No lock downs. Encourage people to take sensible precautions like with flu. Accept that a lot of people will eventually get this thing; most will shrug it off; maybe 10% of elderly people including me won't. You've gotta die of something. This sounds better than dementia, cancer or a stroke.
Don't worry; be happy; keep calm; carry on. This is directed at the general public.
To the medics, scientists, politicians - worry like hell; work your socks off; this is what you're paid for.
That North Carolina poll is bad for Sanders. In my model it knocks out Sanders in North Carolina making my central projection Trump/Sanders 284/254 +/- 70
All he deserves. If you don't play you shouldn't get to win.
Alternately they are astonishingly high for a previously Republican billionaire running for the Democratic nomination with poor debating performance, interesting views on minorities and vast ad buys.
Watching the original Thomas the Tank Engine series, narrated by Ringo Starr, with my daughter; I'm struck by just how *good* it is.
Rather than the modern animated mumbo-jumbo, which is all about the emotions and the relationships of characters, it features real stories about trains and life on a railway, complete with being filmed on a live steam model railway in bucolic British countryside.
Oh, and the entertainer-style chuff-chuffy theme tune rocks too. Much better than the slightly yankee yellow submarine "Thomas & Friends" song.
The Coronavirus situation in Italy is as follows according tonight's update
21,127 people tested so far
1,694 were found infected
Out of them
34 died 83 already healed 140 are in intensive care 639 are in hospital but not need intensive care 798 are at home as they don't have symptoms (or very limited symptoms)
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Intnd you to be wrong.
No, before the peak there will be a slowing of the rate of increase, though the daily numbers will continue to rise. We are on the steep part of the bell curve, but it is a curve, not linear.
What do you think of the various predictions (at the nastier end of the scale) that 70-80% will ultimately be infected?
PS I agree it will slow in the end, because it has to. It will run out of people to infect so exponential growth has to stop
If we can't be reinfected then logic says that the slow down will occur much, much earlier as the virus comes into contact with more and more people with immunity. If.
It's growing, but way more slowly. Why? They have a very old population, like Italy, they share many cultural characteristics with SK. Yet their performance is superior, in confining this wretched disease.
Maybe it's just luck: SK was unlucky with that church? HMG should nonetheless look towards Japan.
They're taking the US approach of no tests = no cases.
I agree with DavidL that SK will have it under control in a week or two. By “under control” I mean a declining rate of new cases.
I am also hopeful about Japan.
Italy and the US are the concerns at the moment, in both cases, authorities seem to be in some form of denial.
But overall I am optimistic. We can do this. We can do this without massively inconveniencing people, and we can do this without permanently damaging the economy.
PS is it just me or are Brexiters the main panickers?
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Interesting.
At the moment Korea has 3700 cases. People differ on the doubling rate of cases, some say it doubles every 1.5 days, others every 2.5 days.
Let's say 2 days.
On that basis. South Korea will have 473,000 cases after two weeks, and 30 million cases by about week 3 and a half. After that the maths breaks down as the expected number of cases exceeds their population: everyone is infected.
Koreans really need DavidL to be right, and you to be wrong.
You are spouting garbage. A Malthusian obsession with maths at the expense of common sense.
It's not Malthus, it's the alarming nature of exponential maths.
It it also of a piece with the predictions - at the worse end of the scale - that around 80% will get infected (not my prediction, the WHO etc)
What a snide and petty opinion piece from Mr Meeks. I was genuinely surprised when I got to the end and saw his name at the bottom. He is better than this.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Intnd you to be wrong.
No, before the peak there will be a slowing of the rate of increase, though the daily numbers will continue to rise. We are on the steep part of the bell curve, but it is a curve, not linear.
What do you think of the various predictions (at the nastier end of the scale) that 70-80% will ultimately be infected?
PS I agree it will slow in the end, because it has to. It will run out of people to infect so exponential growth has to stop
If we can't be reinfected then logic says that the slow down will occur much, much earlier as the virus comes into contact with more and more people with immunity. If.
It's growing, but way more slowly. Why? They have a very old population, like Italy, they share many cultural characteristics with SK. Yet their performance is superior, in confining this wretched disease.
Maybe it's just luck: SK was unlucky with that church? HMG should nonetheless look towards Japan.
I fear that they have the opposite distortion to that we are seeing in SK. They were just unbelievably slow in testing the people on that boat. Took weeks and some were released without even being tested. Like the US they seem to be carrying out ludicrously low levels of tests. Every day that someone not tested with minimal or no symptoms is still going about their business more people are infected. I am as pessimistic about Japan as I am optimistic about SK.
Italy is another bad example although it is getting better. Broadly anyone showing 2%+ deaths has not found all those infected allowing further spread. It is the very low mortality rate that makes me think SK are getting a grip.
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Interesting.
At the moment Korea has 3700 cases. People differ on the doubling rate of cases, some say it doubles every 1.5 days, others every 2.5 days.
Let's say 2 days.
On that basis. South Korea will have 473,000 cases after two weeks, and 30 million cases by about week 3 and a half. After that the maths breaks down as the expected number of cases exceeds their population: everyone is infected.
Koreans really need DavidL to be right, and you to be wrong.
You are spouting garbage. A Malthusian obsession with maths at the expense of common sense.
It's not Malthus, it's the alarming nature of exponential maths.
It it also of a piece with the predictions - at the worse end of the scale - that around 80% will get infected (not my prediction, the WHO etc)
Hitchens might have a point but I am not sure why he thinks the "left-wing baby boomer generation" is in power here or in the United States.
I am not sure he even has a point.
I know the person who was chief OPCW inspector for the first Syria inspection and met him shortly after his return from that inspection. I know the political constraints that inspection operated under, and what they were allowed to report on. As far as I know, the report was heavily redacted for political reasons, but in a diametrically opposed way to what Hitchens is now reporting. It won't happen, but I'd find it fascinating to sit down and question Hitchens about the specifics of what his sources have reported to him, and their potential political objectives in doing so.
A poor comparison. I can avoid road deaths by staying off the road or driving defensively.
If somebody in a restaurant kitchen has COVID-19 and gets it on food, they could infect people who are taking all sorts of precautions and even kill some of them. This is a common disease vector in the USA were people get fired for taking sick time. The CDC has said that 70% of Norovirus cases in the US are passed by infected food workers.
So 1.25m road traffic deaths each year are OK - because you can avoid being one of them. Whereas somebody preparing your food might kill YOU.
There speaks a liberal.....
Nicely taken out of context.....
In the first scenario, I have control over my destiny
In the second scenario, someone afflicts me with their disease.
That is why your comparison is invalid, but hey, never mind. Just get a quick ad-hom attack in since that seems to be your thing.
Ah the old "mummy, he's being beastly to me with an ad hominen attack" ad hominen attack....
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Intnd you to be wrong.
No, before the peak there will be a slowing of the rate of increase, though the daily numbers will continue to rise. We are on the steep part of the bell curve, but it is a curve, not linear.
What do you think of the various predictions (at the nastier end of the scale) that 70-80% will ultimately be infected?
PS I agree it will slow in the end, because it has to. It will run out of people to infect so exponential growth has to stop
If we can't be reinfected then logic says that the slow down will occur much, much earlier as the virus comes into contact with more and more people with immunity. If.
It's growing, but way more slowly. Why? They have a very old population, like Italy, they share many cultural characteristics with SK. Yet their performance is superior, in confining this wretched disease.
Maybe it's just luck: SK was unlucky with that church? HMG should nonetheless look towards Japan.
I fear that they have the opposite distortion to that we are seeing in SK. They were just unbelievably slow in testing the people on that boat. Took weeks and some were released without even being tested. Like the US they seem to be carrying out ludicrously low levels of tests. Every day that someone not tested with minimal or no symptoms is still going about their business more people are infected. I am as pessimistic about Japan as I am optimistic about SK.
Italy is another bad example although it is getting better. Broadly anyone showing 2%+ deaths has not found all those infected allowing further spread. It is the very low mortality rate that makes me think SK are getting a grip.
There were still plenty of anti-bacterial hand wipes in the local Sainsbury's yesterday. And lots of Dettol surface cleanser. The only sign that summat's up is the total absence anywhere of hand sanitizer.
I suppose we should credit panic shoppers with knowing their virus from their bacteria?
That would be a sign education standards have risen sharply.
There are few such signs.
Any lipid disrupting cleaner can kill the Coronavirus, provided contact is long enough. Milton (dilute bleach), alcohol or detergent based.
All he deserves. If you don't play you shouldn't get to win.
Alternately they are astonishingly high for a previously Republican billionaire running for the Democratic nomination with poor debating performance, interesting views on minorities and vast ad buys.
Reflects the quality of the field I'm afraid. If the field contained a Bill Clinton or Barak Obama he would be absolutely nowhere. But it doesn't.
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Interesting.
At the moment Korea has 3700 cases. People differ on the doubling rate of cases, some say it doubles every 1.5 days, others every 2.5 days.
Let's say 2 days.
On that basis. South Korea will have 473,000 cases after two weeks, and 30 million cases by about week 3 and a half. After that the maths breaks down as the expected number of cases exceeds their population: everyone is infected.
Koreans really need DavidL to be right, and you to be wrong.
You are spouting garbage. A Malthusian obsession with maths at the expense of common sense.
It's not Malthus, it's the alarming nature of exponential maths.
It it also of a piece with the predictions - at the worse end of the scale - that around 80% will get infected (not my prediction, the WHO etc)
The evidence is to be seen in the declining rate of infection in China, Hong Kong and Singapore - and soon, in South Korea.
Is the rate of testing the same? I could easily imagine that infection rates are lower since they have simply run out of kits to test for it.
I can make infection rates look like they are slowing in three ways: 1) the infection rate is actually slowing 2) i've run out of kits to test for infection 3) the rate of testing is rising faster than the rate of infection, which may still be rising.
All he deserves. If you don't play you shouldn't get to win.
Alternately they are astonishingly high for a previously Republican billionaire running for the Democratic nomination with poor debating performance, interesting views on minorities and vast ad buys.
Reflects the quality of the field I'm afraid. If the field contained a Bill Clinton or Barak Obama he would be absolutely nowhere. But it doesn't.
I spent the last four years asking my Democrat relatives in the US for the name of a Democrat who met the following criteria -
1) Preferably a (ex?) governor of a state. 2) Good at speaking and debates. 3) Between 40 and 60 4) Not actually made of money or owned by Goldman Sachs. 5) Some policies would be nice.
Instead we have a final between Bernie and Bidden.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but if the total number of people infected by each sick person is above one, then shouldn't every person on the globe end up with the disease?
As that's clearly not the case for (say) SARS, then how does the chart make sense?
A poor comparison. I can avoid road deaths by staying off the road or driving defensively.
If somebody in a restaurant kitchen has COVID-19 and gets it on food, they could infect people who are taking all sorts of precautions and even kill some of them. This is a common disease vector in the USA were people get fired for taking sick time. The CDC has said that 70% of Norovirus cases in the US are passed by infected food workers.
So 1.25m road traffic deaths each year are OK - because you can avoid being one of them. Whereas somebody preparing your food might kill YOU.
There speaks a liberal.....
Nicely taken out of context.....
In the first scenario, I have control over my destiny
In the second scenario, someone afflicts me with their disease.
That is why your comparison is invalid, but hey, never mind. Just get a quick ad-hom attack in since that seems to be your thing.
Ah the old "mummy, he's being beastly to me with an ad hominen attack" ad hominen attack....
There were still plenty of anti-bacterial hand wipes in the local Sainsbury's yesterday. And lots of Dettol surface cleanser. The only sign that summat's up is the total absence anywhere of hand sanitizer.
I suppose we should credit panic shoppers with knowing their virus from their bacteria?
That would be a sign education standards have risen sharply.
You can get 16/1 at Ladbrokes on there being no presidential election this year.
I haven't taken it.
I don't think that constitutionally possible. They did carry on elections even at the height of WW2.
However in WW2 Trump was not President. He and the GOP have driven a coach and horses through the checks and balances the Founding Fathers inserted into the Constitution to protect the nation from people like Trump, so almost anything is possible.
As was already pointed out earlier when a number of us were commenting about how well suited she would be for the post, it was not 'this Government' who blocked her, it was the disaster zone that was Theresa May.
What a snide and petty opinion piece from Mr Meeks. I was genuinely surprised when I got to the end and saw his name at the bottom. He is better than this.
I thought so too actually. It's a shame when a point of view is overdone like this. Have you seen the film Vice? We went to watch it (and I have to say I didnt know who Dick Cheney was!), and left on his side, so overdone was the bias and unfunny were the jokes.
It seems that left leaning critics don't trust us to make up our minds correctly, so feel the need to hammer the point home by repeatedly using a variant of the most extreme example as an illustration. After a while the patronisation leaves more of an impression than the point they want to make.
So Dick Cheney was a bad guy apparently. But taking the mickey out of him having a heart attack etc was not the way to persuade me to hate him.
There were still plenty of anti-bacterial hand wipes in the local Sainsbury's yesterday. And lots of Dettol surface cleanser. The only sign that summat's up is the total absence anywhere of hand sanitizer.
I suppose we should credit panic shoppers with knowing their virus from their bacteria?
That would be a sign education standards have risen sharply.
There are few such signs.
Any lipid disrupting cleaner can kill the Coronavirus, provided contact is long enough. Milton (dilute bleach), alcohol or detergent based.
You can get 16/1 at Ladbrokes on there being no presidential election this year.
I haven't taken it.
Are they offering the other side? Even at 1/20, a 5% return in nine months is way better than the bank.
There’s no way the US election gets postponed, way too many people would have to agree who can’t agree on anything. There was still an election in 1944.
What a snide and petty opinion piece from Mr Meeks. I was genuinely surprised when I got to the end and saw his name at the bottom. He is better than this.
I thought so too actually. It's a shame when a point of view is overdone like this. Have you seen the film Vice? We went to watch it (and I have to say I didnt know who Dick Cheney was!), and left on his side, so overdone was the bias and unfunny were the jokes.
It seems that left leaning critics don't trust us to make up our minds correctly, so feel the need to hammer the point home by repeatedly using a variant of the most extreme example as an illustration. After a while the patronisation leaves more of an impression than the point they want to make.
So Dick Cheney was a bad guy apparently. But taking the mickey out of him having a heart attack etc was not the way to persuade me to hate him.
I actually liked Vice. And if anything I think it was slightly flattering to Cheney. He started off gauche and a bit naive but he rapidly learned to play the game better than anyone else giving him remarkable power over a President who was beyond stupid. If only Pence were half as capable.
It looks like this is what we must anticipate. The question then is how many will catch it.
Italy is nowhere near getting a grip of this yet. I believe SK are very close to doing so. It's apples and pears.
What ma
What they do have is a much better mortality rate. So far
Is it spreading, or have there just been far more tests?
They have done LOADS of tests, the most outside China.
But it is hard to find anything truly reassuring in their data, at the moment.
Anyone fancy a bet that SK is showing a significant reduction in new cases within 7 days? They have gone looking. Hard. What we are seeing now is what they found.
I would expect it to peak about 6-7 weeks after first cases in a place like ROK so maybe another month or so to go.
Intereeds their population: everyone is infected.
Koreans really need DavidL to be right, and you to be wrong.
You are spouting garbage. A Malthusian obsession with maths at the expense of common sense.
It's not Malthus, it's the alarming nature of exponential maths.
It it also of a piece with the predictions - at the worse end of the scale - that around 80% will get infected (not my prediction, the WHO etc)
I'm not trying to frighten people, but it is simply the case that some experts ARE pessimistic and are anticipating high infection rates, of up to 80%
If you read the reports, the experts are citing worst cases, and are trying to be judicious. Dr Quick for example notes that the Chinese look to have been successful with their containment policy.
You can get 16/1 at Ladbrokes on there being no presidential election this year.
I haven't taken it.
Are they offering the other side? Even at 1/20, a 5% return in nine months is way better than the bank.
There’s no way the US election gets postponed, way too many people would have to agree who can’t agree on anything. There was still an election in 1944.
You can get 16/1 at Ladbrokes on there being no presidential election this year.
I haven't taken it.
Are they offering the other side? Even at 1/20, a 5% return in nine months is way better than the bank.
There’s no way the US election gets postponed, way too many people would have to agree who can’t agree on anything. There was still an election in 1944.
I'm not trying to frighten people, but it is simply the case that some experts ARE pessimistic and are anticipating high infection rates, of up to 80%
I have to say I am rapidly tiring of the Telegraph hypocrisy on this subject.
They have lots of articles from commentators saying we should not panic, that we should take a measured approach to this based on science not speculation and that the chances of actually dying from this thing are very small compared to many other risks we take - all of which I agree with. These are measured, informed articles.
They then have headlines like
70% of UK population to be infected. 1 in 10 of us could end up being hospitalised.
It is crass scaremongering to drag people in
They are no better than the Sun or the Mirror when it comes to this sort of journalism.
I'm not trying to frighten people, but it is simply the case that some experts ARE pessimistic and are anticipating high infection rates, of up to 80%
I have to say I am rapidly tiring of the Telegraph hypocrisy on this subject.
They have lots of articles from commentators saying we should not panic, that we should take a measured approach to this based on science not speculation and that the chances of actually dying from this thing are very small compared to many other risks we take - all of which I agree with. These are measured, informed articles.
They then have headlines like
70% of UK population to be infected. 1 in 10 of us could end up being hospitalised.
It is crass scaremongering to drag people in
They are no better than the Sun or the Mirror when it comes to this sort of journalism.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but if the total number of people infected by each sick person is above one, then shouldn't every person on the globe end up with the disease?
As that's clearly not the case for (say) SARS, then how does the chart make sense?
The point you highlight shows why the application of exponential maths is meaningless in this context, at least beyond the first couple of weeks. Once we start to intervene, isolate, treat, etc the potential infectivity is not matched by the real world reality.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I will be very interested to see what Starmer does re Brexit.
If it goes to shit, he'll have done well to have backed an EEA-style deal from the beginning and taking a position is probably a good thing - but it might make him unpopular at first.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
Do you think people on here have more than one account and talk to themselves.
There were still plenty of anti-bacterial hand wipes in the local Sainsbury's yesterday. And lots of Dettol surface cleanser. The only sign that summat's up is the total absence anywhere of hand sanitizer.
I suppose we should credit panic shoppers with knowing their virus from their bacteria?
That would be a sign education standards have risen sharply.
There are few such signs.
Any lipid disrupting cleaner can kill the Coronavirus, provided contact is long enough. Milton (dilute bleach), alcohol or detergent based.
What a snide and petty opinion piece from Mr Meeks. I was genuinely surprised when I got to the end and saw his name at the bottom. He is better than this.
I thought so too actually. It's a shame when a point of view is overdone like this. Have you seen the film Vice? We went to watch it (and I have to say I didnt know who Dick Cheney was!), and left on his side, so overdone was the bias and unfunny were the jokes.
It seems that left leaning critics don't trust us to make up our minds correctly, so feel the need to hammer the point home by repeatedly using a variant of the most extreme example as an illustration. After a while the patronisation leaves more of an impression than the point they want to make.
So Dick Cheney was a bad guy apparently. But taking the mickey out of him having a heart attack etc was not the way to persuade me to hate him.
I actually liked Vice. And if anything I think it was slightly flattering to Cheney. He started off gauche and a bit naive but he rapidly learned to play the game better than anyone else giving him remarkable power over a President who was beyond stupid. If only Pence were half as capable.
I'd rather incompetent and scatterbrained Trump than competent and malicious Pence.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
They have lots of articles from commentators saying we should not panic, that we should take a measured approach to this based on science not speculation and that the chances of actually dying from this thing are very small compared to many other risks we take - all of which I agree with. These are measured, informed articles.
I think for those with pre-existing conditions particularly cardiovascular or respiratory there is genuine cause for concern while recognising the coronavirus in and of itself isn't the problem but the exacerbation of the current condition.
Given we have a large elderly population and we have communities with large proportions of elderly I think there are causes for concern with regard to contagion and transmission.
As you say, most people who catch it seem to recover with adequate and appropriate time and rest.
As you also say, I'm much more of a risk crossing the Barking Road but then the cafe is on the wrong side of the road and where else am I going to get my healthy Full English with a mug of coffee?
They have lots of articles from commentators saying we should not panic, that we should take a measured approach to this based on science not speculation and that the chances of actually dying from this thing are very small compared to many other risks we take - all of which I agree with. These are measured, informed articles.
I think for those with pre-existing conditions particularly cardiovascular or respiratory there is genuine cause for concern while recognising the coronavirus in and of itself isn't the problem but the exacerbation of the current condition.
Given we have a large elderly population and we have communities with large proportions of elderly I think there are causes for concern with regard to contagion and transmission.
As you say, most people who catch it seem to recover with adequate and appropriate time and rest.
As you also say, I'm much more of a risk crossing the Barking Road but then the cafe is on the wrong side of the road and where else am I going to get my healthy Full English with a mug of coffee?
Otherwise healthy and young people have very little to worry about until we hit the tens of thousands of cases. Of course by the time we hit that it's too late to start worrying.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I've been trying to change the subject for hours.
The problem is the amount of time we discuss it seems to increase exponentially. Some people aren't taking it seriously, but I've been keeping an eye on the Iranian PB.com and by the end of March I calculate 98% of all PB comments will be about this topic.
You can get 16/1 at Ladbrokes on there being no presidential election this year.
I haven't taken it.
Are they offering the other side? Even at 1/20, a 5% return in nine months is way better than the bank.
There’s no way the US election gets postponed, way too many people would have to agree who can’t agree on anything. There was still an election in 1944.
Yeah, I think it's crap.
I wouldn't be tempted at anything less than 50/1.
Indeed. You’d need to amend the United States Code, then have all 50 states plus D.C. amend their local laws for the revised date. But until when would you postpone it? Would probably be until the summer, and no-one who wants to see a new president in place in January is going to vote for that.
Much more likely, if there’s a virus epidemic, is an expansion of early voting and postal voting, designed to avoid queues at polling stations. The official Election Day will still be the first Tuesday in November.
What a snide and petty opinion piece from Mr Meeks. I was genuinely surprised when I got to the end and saw his name at the bottom. He is better than this.
I thought so too actually. It's a shame when a point of view is overdone like this. Have you seen the film Vice? We went to watch it (and I have to say I didnt know who Dick Cheney was!), and left on his side, so overdone was the bias and unfunny were the jokes.
It seems that left leaning critics don't trust us to make up our minds correctly, so feel the need to hammer the point home by repeatedly using a variant of the most extreme example as an illustration. After a while the patronisation leaves more of an impression than the point they want to make.
So Dick Cheney was a bad guy apparently. But taking the mickey out of him having a heart attack etc was not the way to persuade me to hate him.
I thought he was portrayed as human and quite smart.
What a snide and petty opinion piece from Mr Meeks. I was genuinely surprised when I got to the end and saw his name at the bottom. He is better than this.
I thought so too actually. It's a shame when a point of view is overdone like this. Have you seen the film Vice? We went to watch it (and I have to say I didnt know who Dick Cheney was!), and left on his side, so overdone was the bias and unfunny were the jokes.
It seems that left leaning critics don't trust us to make up our minds correctly, so feel the need to hammer the point home by repeatedly using a variant of the most extreme example as an illustration. After a while the patronisation leaves more of an impression than the point they want to make.
So Dick Cheney was a bad guy apparently. But taking the mickey out of him having a heart attack etc was not the way to persuade me to hate him.
I thought he was portrayed as human and quite smart.
He was, and 100% irredeemably evil. It was a pale imitation of The Big Short. That also demonised it's villains but made a much tighter argument so I was happy to go along with it.
There were still plenty of anti-bacterial hand wipes in the local Sainsbury's yesterday. And lots of Dettol surface cleanser. The only sign that summat's up is the total absence anywhere of hand sanitizer.
I suppose we should credit panic shoppers with knowing their virus from their bacteria?
That would be a sign education standards have risen sharply.
There are few such signs.
Any lipid disrupting cleaner can kill the Coronavirus, provided contact is long enough. Milton (dilute bleach), alcohol or detergent based.
There were still plenty of anti-bacterial hand wipes in the local Sainsbury's yesterday. And lots of Dettol surface cleanser. The only sign that summat's up is the total absence anywhere of hand sanitizer.
I suppose we should credit panic shoppers with knowing their virus from their bacteria?
That would be a sign education standards have risen sharply.
There are few such signs.
Any lipid disrupting cleaner can kill the Coronavirus, provided contact is long enough. Milton (dilute bleach), alcohol or detergent based.
They have lots of articles from commentators saying we should not panic, that we should take a measured approach to this based on science not speculation and that the chances of actually dying from this thing are very small compared to many other risks we take - all of which I agree with. These are measured, informed articles.
I think for those with pre-existing conditions particularly cardiovascular or respiratory there is genuine cause for concern while recognising the coronavirus in and of itself isn't the problem but the exacerbation of the current condition.
Given we have a large elderly population and we have communities with large proportions of elderly I think there are causes for concern with regard to contagion and transmission.
As you say, most people who catch it seem to recover with adequate and appropriate time and rest.
As you also say, I'm much more of a risk crossing the Barking Road but then the cafe is on the wrong side of the road and where else am I going to get my healthy Full English with a mug of coffee?
The "crossing the road is more dangerous" argument is boringly fallacious. You are a thousand times more likely to die in a car accident than of gunshot wounds in this country, but that is not a very relevant consideration if you are about to play a game of Russian roulette.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
There's nothing stopping people talking about other topics, but generally on PB we talk about the news. Coronavirus is dominating the news, and potentially has profound impact on all politics going forwards.
What a snide and petty opinion piece from Mr Meeks. I was genuinely surprised when I got to the end and saw his name at the bottom. He is better than this.
I thought so too actually. It's a shame when a point of view is overdone like this. Have you seen the film Vice? We went to watch it (and I have to say I didnt know who Dick Cheney was!), and left on his side, so overdone was the bias and unfunny were the jokes.
It seems that left leaning critics don't trust us to make up our minds correctly, so feel the need to hammer the point home by repeatedly using a variant of the most extreme example as an illustration. After a while the patronisation leaves more of an impression than the point they want to make.
So Dick Cheney was a bad guy apparently. But taking the mickey out of him having a heart attack etc was not the way to persuade me to hate him.
I actually liked Vice. And if anything I think it was slightly flattering to Cheney. He started off gauche and a bit naive but he rapidly learned to play the game better than anyone else giving him remarkable power over a President who was beyond stupid. If only Pence were half as capable.
I'd rather incompetent and scatterbrained Trump than competent and malicious Pence.
Yes, I don't think Ted Cruz would have provided so much entertainment as Trump, but he could have done far more damage.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
I DO take your point that it is "f*cking boring", and I agree it would be great if we could talk about something else. The trouble is this issue is so enormous it soon intrudes onto any other debate (unless they are about favourite kids tv shows or whatever)
eg take the POTUS elex. Clearly this is the biggest electoral story of the moment. We could talk about that, but very soon someone will rightly say, "Hang on, how does coronavirus affect all this, because it will" - and there we are again.
This applies almost universally.
Hmm.
Maybe you are right and TSE should impose some kind of rule. We are allowed to talk about coronavirus from 9pm-11pm. And not otherwise. Or something, I dunno.
You mean Quarantine it ? Any posts outside the epicentre time dont get released for two weeks
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
There's nothing stopping people talking about other topics, but generally on PB we talk about the news. Coronavirus is dominating the news, and potentially has profound impact on all politics going forwards.
No. It's @eadric and his incessant 24/7 masturbation about the virus that is fast making this site unbearable.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
I DO take your point that it is "f*cking boring", and I agree it would be great if we could talk about something else. The trouble is this issue is so enormous it soon intrudes onto any other debate (unless they are about favourite kids tv shows or whatever)
eg take the POTUS elex. Clearly this is the biggest electoral story of the moment. We could talk about that, but very soon someone will rightly say, "Hang on, how does coronavirus affect all this, because it will" - and there we are again.
This applies almost universally.
Hmm.
Maybe you are right and TSE should impose some kind of rule. We are allowed to talk about coronavirus from 9pm-11pm. And not otherwise. Or something, I dunno.
Can we have a rule limiting the amount of time we talk about coronavirus on here each day, please?
It's fucking boring.
I’m just impressed how one person has time to adopt 3 different identities and maintain a consistent, suitably hysterical and self-congratulatory style.
I dunno why he can't at least try something else. Watch Netflix. Go for a walk. Sketch a garden bird. Do a brass rubbing. Savour a pint. Have a wank.
Anything.
Maybe you should try Netflix, a walk, sketching, etc.
Comments
So weird.
Their chances of their getting on top of it depend to some extent on just how infectious it is, which we don’t really know with any certainty for now. The next two to three weeks will be ... interesting.
And the next week will give us a very good idea of just how much of the increase is simply testing catching up from a standing start.
If this problem looks set to get a whole lot worse which appears likely, it's surely better to take these sorts of precautions, rather than being faced with far more draconian ones later?
It was when the student paper got hold of the attendee list to the eugenics conference he walked
There are few such signs.
Could the same happen at Cheltenham? The races still happen so there's no hit to off-track and exchange betting and it provides entertainment for those in self-isolation. Would be eerie to ride in that race with empty stands and no roar from the crowd.
I am also hopeful about Japan.
Italy and the US are the concerns at the moment, in both cases, authorities seem to be in some form of denial.
But overall I am optimistic. We can do this. We can do this without massively inconveniencing people, and we can do this without permanently damaging the economy.
PS is it just me or are Brexiters the main panickers?
Italy is the more relevant study for the UK imo. Similar demographics and levels of societal control.
Because of our zealous testing we've won a 2 week headstart on Italy and a 1 week headstart on France, Germany, and Spain, which will hopefully give us a good idea of how much is catchup and how much is new spread.
In the first scenario, I have control over my destiny
In the second scenario, someone afflicts me with their disease.
That is why your comparison is invalid, but hey, never mind. Just get a quick ad-hom attack in since that seems to be your thing.
A Malthusian obsession with maths at the expense of common sense.
So far, though, it’s just good luck that we didn’t import a “superspreader” as Italy seems to have (France, Germany and Spain look largely to have picked it up from Italy too).
You can get 16/1 at Ladbrokes on there being no presidential election this year.
I haven't taken it.
We can only pray for them, and for those like Nazanin, stuck in Iranian prisons.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234141991870566402?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234142172112396289?s=20
Don't worry; be happy; keep calm; carry on. This is directed at the general public.
To the medics, scientists, politicians - worry like hell; work your socks off; this is what you're paid for.
Rather than the modern animated mumbo-jumbo, which is all about the emotions and the relationships of characters, it features real stories about trains and life on a railway, complete with being filmed on a live steam model railway in bucolic British countryside.
Oh, and the entertainer-style chuff-chuffy theme tune rocks too. Much better than the slightly yankee yellow submarine "Thomas & Friends" song.
21,127 people tested so far
1,694 were found infected
Out of them
34 died
83 already healed
140 are in intensive care
639 are in hospital but not need intensive care
798 are at home as they don't have symptoms (or very limited symptoms)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/world/asia/japan-elderly-coronavirus.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-27/limited-virus-testing-in-japan-masks-true-scale-of-infection
I would vastly rather that we take on the SK approach rather than the Japanese one.
For God’s sake, pull yourself together.
Italy is another bad example although it is getting better. Broadly anyone showing 2%+ deaths has not found all those infected allowing further spread. It is the very low mortality rate that makes me think SK are getting a grip.
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/02/a-and-b-respond-to-the-opcws-attacks-on-them-the-full-rebuttal.html
I can make infection rates look like they are slowing in three ways:
1) the infection rate is actually slowing
2) i've run out of kits to test for infection
3) the rate of testing is rising faster than the rate of infection, which may still be rising.
1) Preferably a (ex?) governor of a state.
2) Good at speaking and debates.
3) Between 40 and 60
4) Not actually made of money or owned by Goldman Sachs.
5) Some policies would be nice.
Instead we have a final between Bernie and Bidden.
As that's clearly not the case for (say) SARS, then how does the chart make sense?
It seems that left leaning critics don't trust us to make up our minds correctly, so feel the need to hammer the point home by repeatedly using a variant of the most extreme example as an illustration. After a while the patronisation leaves more of an impression than the point they want to make.
So Dick Cheney was a bad guy apparently. But taking the mickey out of him having a heart attack etc was not the way to persuade me to hate him.
There’s no way the US election gets postponed, way too many people would have to agree who can’t agree on anything. There was still an election in 1944.
I wouldn't be tempted at anything less than 50/1.
They have lots of articles from commentators saying we should not panic, that we should take a measured approach to this based on science not speculation and that the chances of actually dying from this thing are very small compared to many other risks we take - all of which I agree with. These are measured, informed articles.
They then have headlines like
70% of UK population to be infected.
1 in 10 of us could end up being hospitalised.
It is crass scaremongering to drag people in
They are no better than the Sun or the Mirror when it comes to this sort of journalism.
It's fucking boring.
If it goes to shit, he'll have done well to have backed an EEA-style deal from the beginning and taking a position is probably a good thing - but it might make him unpopular at first.
Anything.
Given we have a large elderly population and we have communities with large proportions of elderly I think there are causes for concern with regard to contagion and transmission.
As you say, most people who catch it seem to recover with adequate and appropriate time and rest.
As you also say, I'm much more of a risk crossing the Barking Road but then the cafe is on the wrong side of the road and where else am I going to get my healthy Full English with a mug of coffee?
Much more likely, if there’s a virus epidemic, is an expansion of early voting and postal voting, designed to avoid queues at polling stations. The official Election Day will still be the first Tuesday in November.
Anyone.
Keir Starmer.
I think this is what Thomas Bayes was on about.
Don't encourage him.