Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
Of course, but it takes time and a lot of work to even get projects from the drawing board. Even if the government green lit a load of stuff next week, it wouldn't be getting built for months / years.
What we want is all this stuff ready to go go go as soon as possible. Not the crap like Heathrow or HS2, where years and years later we still not anywhere.
To me the obvious one which you could have ready to go quickly is housing.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
Of course, but it takes time and a lot of work to even get projects from the drawing board. Even if the government green lit a load of stuff next week, it wouldn't be getting built for months / years.
What we want is all this stuff ready to go go go as soon as possible. Not the crap like Heathrow or HS2, where years and years later we still not anywhere.
To me the obvious one which you could have ready to go quickly is housing.
You would also get the return sooner.
Yes, I think that is a very good idea. And unlike a Boris Bridge, it is highly unlikely to be a white elephant. There is already need, let alone for the future.
I would get all things like those promised hospitals projects funded as well. I really see no downside to getting capacity that is already needed green lit now, rather than doing it all in bits and pieces.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
You can be sure that Scunthorpe steelworks is now safe.
I seriously hope someone is working on how we replace the kind of steel we have been importing from China. My understanding is our domestic production tends to be high end, more sophisticated stuff not what you build buildings or flyovers with. It's just one example of how the whole globalisation agenda is going to take several steps back, at least for now.
I would suspect that the high end producers can still produce the low end stuff if required.
Though perhaps at higher cost and in smaller quantities than the low end producers.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
The Budget could bring in tax changes to encourage domestic production and removed reliance on global supply chains.
On a related note any suggestion of '"we don't need an agricultural sector" is now dead.
Why bother? - the reliance on global supply chains will be seriously diminished anyway by the simple fact that those chains will not be working.
If there are going to be tax cuts they should be in areas like VAT or pesonal allowances (coupled with benefit rises for those that don't pay tax). Every penny you give to the poorest will get spent back into the economy.
Tax rises for the wealthy won't cut demand one iota, nor are many going to flee the country this year now, so they might as well go ahead to (at least partially) offset tax cuts for the poor and more infrastructure investment.
I wonder if we could jumpstart home working (with reduced commuter demand and infection opportunities) by reducing employers national insurance for those officially based at home?
In the early 00s there were tax incentives to spur computerisation, this would aim to do something similar for decentralisation. It might also help keep young professionals in the provinces rather than encouraging them to move to the big cities.
Reading all this I'm getting to think of a.presumed cold I had last month or so.. Fever, dry cough. shortness of breath. As bad a cold as I can recall in terms of ttiredness.. My partner was really debilitated for a fortnight. How would I know if I have had it? I'm in reasonable shape for.my age and not in the at risk group.
If you really want to know, you could probably have your blood tested for antibodies to the virus. If you are positive, then you had it.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
Of course, but it takes time and a lot of work to even get projects from the drawing board. Even if the government green lit a load of stuff next week, it wouldn't be getting built for months / years.
What we want is all this stuff ready to go go go as soon as possible. Not the crap like Heathrow or HS2, where years and years later we still not anywhere.
To me the obvious one which you could have ready to go quickly is housing.
You would also get the return sooner.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
I find the economics persuasive. The politics a lot less so.
What do you reckon the markets will do tomorrow?
There have been several developments over the weekend which will impact. Mostly the first death in the USA. but also clear signs of epidemic spread in France. Germany, Spain, possibly the UK.
Nothing good has happened to help the markets.
Shall we have a go at predicting, for fun? We gotta get some fun out of this.
I reckon the DJ will have another seizure. 3-4% fall. Europe will be bad as well. Particularly France and Germany. Maybe a 5% drop.
Europe also has the Greek situation to contend with.
And the Syrian refugee issue. The strains that put on the border states and EU cohesiveness the last time was immense and there was not even a (legitimate) fear that they may be carrying this virus. Don't think that the Germans will be stepping up to the plate this time. Borders are going to have to close. Right now.
Those places that constructed the fences are looking a bit smarter now.
I fear it will get violent. Shooting at plague carriers will seem a lot more acceptable than it did the last time. We're going to see some seriously emotive headlines.
Turkey needs to be put back into its box. The Ottoman Empire collapsed 200 years ago, and still they're marching into other countries with their size 12 hobnail boots.
The Turks now control pretty much the migrant flows into Europe.....how do we put them into their box?
Who is going to test them for a specific illness? Once they are in the EU, is anyone going to prevent them heading straight to the UK (where the bulk of Iranians have been heading for?)
If the French don't get access to our fish, then why should they stop migrants?
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
Of course, but it takes time and a lot of work to even get projects from the drawing board. Even if the government green lit a load of stuff next week, it wouldn't be getting built for months / years.
What we want is all this stuff ready to go go go as soon as possible. Not the crap like Heathrow or HS2, where years and years later we still not anywhere.
To me the obvious one which you could have ready to go quickly is housing.
You would also get the return sooner.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
Of course, but it takes time and a lot of work to even get projects from the drawing board. Even if the government green lit a load of stuff next week, it wouldn't be getting built for months / years.
What we want is all this stuff ready to go go go as soon as possible. Not the crap like Heathrow or HS2, where years and years later we still not anywhere.
To me the obvious one which you could have ready to go quickly is housing.
You would also get the return sooner.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
What would you think about amending planning regulations to say that where possible new houses should come with charge points as standard.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
You can be sure that Scunthorpe steelworks is now safe.
I seriously hope someone is working on how we replace the kind of steel we have been importing from China. My understanding is our domestic production tends to be high end, more sophisticated stuff not what you build buildings or flyovers with. It's just one example of how the whole globalisation agenda is going to take several steps back, at least for now.
I would suspect that the high end producers can still produce the low end stuff if required.
Though perhaps at higher cost and in smaller quantities than the low end producers.
You're probably right. I don't know enough about it.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
The Budget could bring in tax changes to encourage domestic production and removed reliance on global supply chains.
On a related note any suggestion of '"we don't need an agricultural sector" is now dead.
Why bother? - the reliance on global supply chains will be seriously diminished anyway by the simple fact that those chains will not be working.
If there are going to be tax cuts they should be in areas like VAT or pesonal allowances (coupled with benefit rises for those that don't pay tax). Every penny you give to the poorest will get spent back into the economy.
Tax rises for the wealthy won't cut demand one iota, nor are many going to flee the country this year now, so they might as well go ahead to (at least partially) offset tax cuts for the poor and more infrastructure investment.
Borrowing will be allowed to rise no doubt.
I would cut VAT on domestic tourism and housing repairs / renovation.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I certainly think that the budget will be more aggressive than originally planned and there will be complete indifference as to whether or not this breaches Treasury "rules". But its not going to be easy building roads and hospitals if a lot of your workforce is in quarantine or if you can't get the steel.
Of course, but it takes time and a lot of work to even get projects from the drawing board. Even if the government green lit a load of stuff next week, it wouldn't be getting built for months / years.
What we want is all this stuff ready to go go go as soon as possible. Not the crap like Heathrow or HS2, where years and years later we still not anywhere.
To me the obvious one which you could have ready to go quickly is housing.
You would also get the return sooner.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
What would you think about amending planning regulations to say that where possible new houses should come with charge points as standard.
Yes. And we need to think about how the grid is going to meet that extra demand too. Maybe go back to those tidal lagoons?
Reading all this I'm getting to think of a.presumed cold I had last month or so.. Fever, dry cough. shortness of breath. As bad a cold as I can recall in terms of ttiredness.. My partner was really debilitated for a fortnight. How would I know if I have had it? I'm in reasonable shape for.my age and not in the at risk group.
Unlikely that it's been circulating here for that long. It's been a bad flu season, I felt awful about three weeks back, and some of my mates (in other cities) have also come down somewhat recently.
Perversely tomorrow could well see a rise, after seven straight days of falls but it will surely be short-lived. Expect to see the index down further again by the end of next week.
Reading all this I'm getting to think of a.presumed cold I had last month or so.. Fever, dry cough. shortness of breath. As bad a cold as I can recall in terms of ttiredness.. My partner was really debilitated for a fortnight. How would I know if I have had it? I'm in reasonable shape for.my age and not in the at risk group.
I had the worst cold I've ever had in early/mid December. It lasted almost 3 weeks, about twice as long as usual. I thought it was a bit odd at the time.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
The Budget could bring in tax changes to encourage domestic production and removed reliance on global supply chains.
On a related note any suggestion of '"we don't need an agricultural sector" is now dead.
Why bother? - the reliance on global supply chains will be seriously diminished anyway by the simple fact that those chains will not be working.
If there are going to be tax cuts they should be in areas like VAT or pesonal allowances (coupled with benefit rises for those that don't pay tax). Every penny you give to the poorest will get spent back into the economy.
Tax rises for the wealthy won't cut demand one iota, nor are many going to flee the country this year now, so they might as well go ahead to (at least partially) offset tax cuts for the poor and more infrastructure investment.
Borrowing will be allowed to rise no doubt.
I would cut VAT on domestic tourism and housing repairs / renovation.
But certainly not on imported consumer tat.
It should not be underestimated just how much the economy will be boosted by the repairs to flood damaged homes and businesses, new carpets, electrical goods, cars and a miriad of home furnishings
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting an incredible opportunity for CO2 storage in the depleted oil and especially gas fields of the north sea. The infrastructure is there, all we need to do is reverse the flow and CO2 can safely be stored in the same place methane was stored for millions of years. The government has looked at this twice to my knowledge and backed off. Its a no brainer. Carbon capture is the way to go to carbon neutrality.
Who is going to test them for a specific illness? Once they are in the EU, is anyone going to prevent them heading straight to the UK (where the bulk of Iranians have been heading for?)
If the French don't get access to our fish, then why should they stop migrants?
Reading all this I'm getting to think of a.presumed cold I had last month or so.. Fever, dry cough. shortness of breath. As bad a cold as I can recall in terms of ttiredness.. My partner was really debilitated for a fortnight. How would I know if I have had it? I'm in reasonable shape for.my age and not in the at risk group.
I had the worst cold I've ever had in early/mid December. It lasted almost 3 weeks, about twice as long as usual. I thought it was a bit odd at the time.
I was exactly the same as you. Wouldn't go away.
Ended up going to the GP to check it wasn't something else.
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
Get out of any stocks or shares. Hold cash, or supremely secure government bonds - eg Germany or Switzerland
Not Germany - they can’t print money
GBP USD CHF SGD DYOR
"In round sums, as the Special Executive knows from our accounts, the total income to date, not counting our last and undistributed dividend, has amounted to approximately one and a half million pounds sterling in the Swiss francs and Venezuelan bolivars in which for reasons of prudence–they continue to be the hardest currencies in the world–we convert all our takings." Ian Fleming, Thunderball
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
Maybe. I suspect the oil price will fall a lot further, especially if countries get serious about boosting renewable energy and the electrification of transport. That will be a deflationary pressure, at least initially. Won't do a lot for stability in the ME of course.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I would be more cautious. The Covid19 crisis will be short, probably 3-6 months, with a significant bounce back of suppressed demand, so overdoing stimulus is likely to overheat the economy quite markedly. In particular building and civil engineering capacity is quite limited in terms of personnel and other resources to expand over the next months
Tourism, restaurants, hotels, hospitality and large public events will lose a season to staycation, so could do with some sort of financial safety net to prevent mass bankruptcies and secondary domino effects on other parts of the economy.
Oh, there is a parliamentary by-election in Rome today (to replace Gentiloni). I almost forgot about it. I am actually surprised turnout was as high as 15% at 7pm
Last week we had a Senate by-election in Naples which had a 9.8% turnout (for what it matters, Movement 5 Stars lost the seat to PD)
Talking of turbo charging infrastructure, Trump is also going to get caught out on this. He promises loads of it, they put in place a team who identified a wide range of projects and then he vetoed it all.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I would be more cautious. The Covid19 crisis will be short, probably 3-6 months, with a significant bounce back of suppressed demand, so overdoing stimulus is likely to overheat the economy quite markedly. In particular building and civil engineering capacity is quite limited in terms of personnel and other resources to expand over the next months
Tourism, restaurants, hotels, hospitality and large public events will lose a season to staycation, so could do with some sort of financial safety net to prevent mass bankruptcies and secondary domino effects on other parts of the economy.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I would be more cautious. The Covid19 crisis will be short, probably 3-6 months, with a significant bounce back of suppressed demand, so overdoing stimulus is likely to overheat the economy quite markedly. In particular building and civil engineering capacity is quite limited in terms of personnel and other resources to expand over the next months
Tourism, restaurants, hotels, hospitality and large public events will lose a season to staycation, so could do with some sort of financial safety net to prevent mass bankruptcies and secondary domino effects on other parts of the economy.
Yes, that's what I mean. I should say "the Brexit process" perhaps. There is a reasonable chance it will be paused, as we deal with more pressing matters.
The idea we will want to put greater obstacles along supply chains even as these break down is fanciful, to me.
Yes, I think that's very plausible. (And probably wouldn't be a bad thing, reducing tension.)
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
Maybe. I suspect the oil price will fall a lot further, especially if countries get serious about boosting renewable energy and the electrification of transport. That will be a deflationary pressure, at least initially. Won't do a lot for stability in the ME of course.
It depends. Chinese inflation is already spiking upwards, due to supply shortages and stockpiling. And a lot of stuff we consume relies on parts, or labour, from China. This against a background where the risk of inflation was already seen as growing due to the medium term fallout from the Trump bubble.
Yes, that's what I mean. I should say "the Brexit process" perhaps. There is a reasonable chance it will be paused, as we deal with more pressing matters.
The idea we will want to put greater obstacles along supply chains even as these break down is fanciful, to me.
Yes, I think that's very plausible. (And probably wouldn't be a bad thing, reducing tension.)
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting an incredible opportunity for CO2 storage in the depleted oil and especially gas fields of the north sea. The infrastructure is there, all we need to do is reverse the flow and CO2 can safely be stored in the same place methane was stored for millions of years. The government has looked at this twice to my knowledge and backed off. Its a no brainer. Carbon capture is the way to go to carbon neutrality.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I would be more cautious. The Covid19 crisis will be short, probably 3-6 months, with a significant bounce back of suppressed demand, so overdoing stimulus is likely to overheat the economy quite markedly. In particular building and civil engineering capacity is quite limited in terms of personnel and other resources to expand over the next months
Tourism, restaurants, hotels, hospitality and large public events will lose a season to staycation, so could do with some sort of financial safety net to prevent mass bankruptcies and secondary domino effects on other parts of the economy.
I think that is a fair point, but we aren't China and so even green lighting loads of projects now, there is a significant led time before actual construction stage. I think the worst thing to do is wait and wait and then in a couple of years go oh shit, slow down.
Interest rates being what they are, how on Earth do we deal with a recession?
The tool kit is not completely empty. We can use QE, interest rates can go negative, the government is about to launch what might prove to be a very well timed fiscal boost in infrastructure spending, there is quite a lot we can do. How much effect it can have in the face of the hurricane is harder to judge but the disruption will be focused on production and tourism/entertainment. That does leave quite a lot of our economy.
Personally I think a negative Q1 figure is now very likely. Disappointing after a reasonable start to the year.
If the government had any sense, they would be looking to fast track every infrastructure plan in the pipeline and task people will identifying all the other worthwhile opportunities to get them going ASAP.
It is what the Chinese do when they suffer a slow down.
I would be more cautious. The Covid19 crisis will be short, probably 3-6 months, with a significant bounce back of suppressed demand, so overdoing stimulus is likely to overheat the economy quite markedly. In particular building and civil engineering capacity is quite limited in terms of personnel and other resources to expand over the next months
Tourism, restaurants, hotels, hospitality and large public events will lose a season to staycation, so could do with some sort of financial safety net to prevent mass bankruptcies and secondary domino effects on other parts of the economy.
An economic hit along the lines of 2008- that would be a game changer on the western economic model which only scarcely scraped through last time....
If shares collapse this week by a further 10-15%- and the coronavirus threat maintains it's momentum...we will be in uncharted waters.....
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Eh? Bonds will suffer the most in an inflationary environment. Unless indexed. The only attraction of Swiss bonds is the CHF denomination.
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
One would hope it is not sensible to treat mortality figures from this and multiply on a national scale - if restricted correctly it should take the form of multiple, smaller, quite local, outbreaks.
Looking at the China figures, and figures from other winter pandemics, 3 weeks from emergence to peak (note that not all of that 3 weeks is exponential growth) then 3 weeks to lower to a post epidemic base rate looks like a reasonable pattern.
If we look at their numbers, perhaps 0.2% of Hunan got infected, and 0.005% died. In one sense, not having the Chinese figures on a neighborhood level, this underestimates infection rates drastically, but it does demonstrate localisation.
Of course, as the number of clusters increases, we will look at outbreaks in different locations simultaneously. The central locations in Italy remain in two clusters SE of Milan and SW of Venice, spanning 8-10 of Italy's 300 or so provinces - there is geographical spreading, but it is creeping rather than explosive - there are still very few infections reported NW of Milan toward the lakes for instance, and one might think of the ones they do have as non-local transmission to the provinces they are reported against.
Look, I'm not saying this won't ultimately be bad over the next 3-4 years, but measures to slow the progress will save many lives, and whole nation, one hit catastrophe is not how this looks like it will play out.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting an incredible opportunity for CO2 storage in the depleted oil and especially gas fields of the north sea. The infrastructure is there, all we need to do is reverse the flow and CO2 can safely be stored in the same place methane was stored for millions of years. The government has looked at this twice to my knowledge and backed off. Its a no brainer. Carbon capture is the way to go to carbon neutrality.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
There was supposed to be £1bn on a trial but it never went ahead. It was going to be easy when we still burnt coal but that is a tiny part of our energy output now. But if you drive across Fife at night you can see Mosmorran from many, many miles away.
Talking of turbo charging infrastructure, Trump is also going to get caught out on this. He promises loads of it, they put in place a team who identified a wide range of projects and then he vetoed it all.
Reading all this I'm getting to think of a.presumed cold I had last month or so.. Fever, dry cough. shortness of breath. As bad a cold as I can recall in terms of ttiredness.. My partner was really debilitated for a fortnight. How would I know if I have had it? I'm in reasonable shape for.my age and not in the at risk group.
I had the worst cold I've ever had in early/mid December. It lasted almost 3 weeks, about twice as long as usual. I thought it was a bit odd at the time.
I was exactly the same as you. Wouldn't go away.
Ended up going to the GP to check it wasn't something else.
Alan Sugar says...the search for Patient Zero....CONTINUES!
Mainly because you can go country by country and see their infections and deaths by day. The last three days for almost every country is quite sobering.
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
What's a Linker Charles?
Indexed link bond.
There’s an ETF, INXG, which is an easy way to buy into a basket of UK ones.
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
Thankyou.
Where the F do you put money in a pandemic.
You can bury it with you or leave it to any relatives.
Oh, there is a parliamentary by-election in Rome today (to replace Gentiloni). I almost forgot about it. I am actually surprised turnout was as high as 15% at 7pm
Last week we had a Senate by-election in Naples which had a 9.8% turnout (for what it matters, Movement 5 Stars lost the seat to PD)
How is the mood in your part of Italy, Andrea? eg is there any panic buying?
Panic buying at supermarkets was the thing of last Sunday. Shelves were apparently almost all empty by mid-day in Milan. And also here (North of Milan) it continued on Monday. Then it calmed down (and they probably got faster at filling them up. They were taken by surprise last Sunday).
Decree by the government this evening decided that for next week in "yellow areas" (Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna)...
In these territories, sports events and competitions are suspended, as well as the travels of fans. However, the decree allows competitions to be held behind closed doors. All "non-ordinary" events, including cultural, recreational, sporting and religious events (cinemas, theaters, discos etc.) are also suspended. The opening of places of worship will be conditioned by the adoption of organizational measures to avoid gatherings of people. Schools of all grades will remain closed. The museums will be open on condition that they ensure a quota fruition method. Public competitions are suspended. Bars and restaurants will be able to carry out the services on the condition that they only serve customers with a seat and the customers will have to stay one meter away. There will be a limitation of visitor access to hospital facilities. Ordinary leave of for health staff is suspended. In the provinces of Bergamo, Lodi, Piacenza and Cremona, large shopping centers are expected to close on the weekend. Gyms, sports centers and spas will remain closed in Lombardy and the province of Piacenza. The judicial offices will have a shorter schedule.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting an incredible opportunity for CO2 storage in the depleted oil and especially gas fields of the north sea. The infrastructure is there, all we need to do is reverse the flow and CO2 can safely be stored in the same place methane was stored for millions of years. The government has looked at this twice to my knowledge and backed off. Its a no brainer. Carbon capture is the way to go to carbon neutrality.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
The CO2 is very diffuse (you have to process a lot of air to extract small amounts of CO2) and that requires a lot of energy. To actually turn it into something useful, you need to add even more energy.
Planting more trees is good, protecting carbon sinks is good, doubling down on renewables sources is also good. All of these things can be done with existing systems and technology, but require quite a bit of political will.
Who is going to test them for a specific illness? Once they are in the EU, is anyone going to prevent them heading straight to the UK (where the bulk of Iranians have been heading for?)
If the French don't get access to our fish, then why should they stop migrants? @MarqueeMark
OMG...I thought this Nazi kind of horror shitshow was in the past...migrants equate to disease ridden pests....
Listen to yourself comrade......Very highly fucking unpleasant
Most people brining in the virus have been the English middle classes returning back from ski trips in northern Italy....
Oh grow up.
The bulk of the migrants crossing the Channel in recent months have been Iranians. They just have.
The Iranians have a massive problem with Covid-19. They just have.
There will be a heightened effort to escape Iran if you have the money. It is just human nature.
Turkey has effectively just opened the border into the EU. No checks on the health of the migrants (for that is what they are).
So who is going to undertake those checks within an EU already struggling with their domestic outbreaks? If they want to just pass on through to the Channel, the authorities will probably put them on sealed buses/trains and disinfect the buses/trains afterwards. There may indeed be 1930s/40's undertones, but it will be European states doing the equating. It is unpleasant, yes. But I'm just reading the runes here. Because nobody is going to say "tell you what, we really need to stop them getting to the UK, so we'll look after them...."
Mainly because you can go country by country and see their infections and deaths by day. The last three days for almost every country is quite sobering.
It highlights well how absurd so many of the numbers for China are. So Zhejiang province has 1205 cases but 1 death. Right....
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting an incredible opportunity for CO2 storage in the depleted oil and especially gas fields of the north sea. The infrastructure is there, all we need to do is reverse the flow and CO2 can safely be stored in the same place methane was stored for millions of years. The government has looked at this twice to my knowledge and backed off. Its a no brainer. Carbon capture is the way to go to carbon neutrality.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
There was supposed to be £1bn on a trial but it never went ahead. It was going to be easy when we still burnt coal but that is a tiny part of our energy output now. But if you drive across Fife at night you can see Mosmorran from many, many miles away.
Another interesting thing he said was that offshore wind has become extremely cheap compared with the early days. His proposal was to install enough wind generation in the North Sea to generate all our electricity on all but the calmest days. Use the consequent overcapacity on windy days to create hydrogen which can then be burnt in gas fired power stations on wind-free days.
We are very lucky to have a large, shallow, windy sea to our east.
... to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting an incredible opportunity for CO2 storage in the depleted oil and especially gas fields of the north sea. The infrastructure is there, all we need to do is reverse the flow and CO2 can safely be stored in the same place methane was stored for millions of years. The government has looked at this twice to my knowledge and backed off. Its a no brainer. Carbon capture is the way to go to carbon neutrality.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
The CO2 is very diffuse (you have to process a lot of air to extract small amounts of CO2) and that requires a lot of energy. To actually turn it into something useful, you need to add even more energy.
Planting more trees is good, protecting carbon sinks is good, doubling down on renewables sources is also good. All of these things can be done with existing systems and technology, but require quite a bit of political will.
£850 million is already going into high speed general use chargers - open equivalents to Tesla's Superchargers. The lamp post stuff is almost a joke by comparison.
On carbon capture - we are are one or 2 breakthroughs away from rather cheap bio-kerosene (equivalent) production. Which would mean aviation suddenly going net zero...
In the Italian "red zone" (municiapalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia, Terranova dei Passerini and Vo Euganeo) the virus containment measures are: prohibition of exit from the area by all individuals currently present there; ban on new accesses, the suspension of events and initiatives, the closure of schools, the suspension of educational trips, the closure of museums and other cultural institutes, the suspension of the activity of public offices (except for essential services) , the suspension of insolvency procedures, the closure of all commercial activities with the exclusion of those of public utility, the suspension of transport services, the suspension of the activities of companies excluding those that provide essential services.
The increasingly bitter turf war over on Twitter between 538 and LeanTossUp on predictions for the democratic nomination race is rather funny.
Have to say my sympathies are largely with the latter.
One thing I find odd about Nate Silver on Twitter (and often other forecasters he argues with) is that these are exactly the people who should be great at understanding uncertainty but they are awful. They should say 'I think my model is better than your for [various reasons] but we get very few chances to test out numbers so I can't be at all sure. Good luck with your model.' But it takes very little for them to become defensive and start sounding like schoolboys (and worse, pundits).
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
What's a Linker Charles?
Indexed link bond.
There’s an ETF, INXG, which is an easy way to buy into a basket of UK ones.
Yes, that's what I mean. I should say "the Brexit process" perhaps. There is a reasonable chance it will be paused, as we deal with more pressing matters.
The idea we will want to put greater obstacles along supply chains even as these break down is fanciful, to me.
Yes, I think that's very plausible. (And probably wouldn't be a bad thing, reducing tension.)
I'm rather proud of the fact that we haven't succumbed to panic buying in this country so far.
Try looking up the price of hand sanitiser on Amazon, or seeing if any of the online supermarkets have any left in stock?
I might be bothered by the lack of hand sanitiser if it wasn't for the fact that apparently ordinary soap does the job just as well.
Probably better!
My top tip is to get a pulse oximetry, BP device, electronic thermometer and peak flow meter. Probably get the lot for under £50 quid on Amazon. Stock up on ibuprofen, asprin and paracetamol and any usual prescriptions.
Further than that there is reasonable evidence for Zinc as an antiviral. Perhaps a role too for turmeric and fish oils as anti inflammatory too.
In the Italian "red zone" (municiapalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia, Terranova dei Passerini and Vo Euganeo) the virus containment measures are: prohibition of exit from the area by all individuals currently present there; ban on new accesses, the suspension of events and initiatives, the closure of schools, the suspension of educational trips, the closure of museums and other cultural institutes, the suspension of the activity of public offices (except for essential services) , the suspension of insolvency procedures, the closure of all commercial activities with the exclusion of those of public utility, the suspension of transport services, the suspension of the activities of companies excluding those that provide essential services.
Do you think they're going over the top with these measures?
In the Italian "red zone" (municiapalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia, Terranova dei Passerini and Vo Euganeo) the virus containment measures are: prohibition of exit from the area by all individuals currently present there; ban on new accesses, the suspension of events and initiatives, the closure of schools, the suspension of educational trips, the closure of museums and other cultural institutes, the suspension of the activity of public offices (except for essential services) , the suspension of insolvency procedures, the closure of all commercial activities with the exclusion of those of public utility, the suspension of transport services, the suspension of the activities of companies excluding those that provide essential services.
Blimey. The GDP consequences of that must be horrendous.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting an incredible opportunity for CO2 storage in the depleted oil and especially gas fields of the north sea. The infrastructure is there, all we need to do is reverse the flow and CO2 can safely be stored in the same place methane was stored for millions of years. The government has looked at this twice to my knowledge and backed off. Its a no brainer. Carbon capture is the way to go to carbon neutrality.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
Technically it is a piece of piss. Proven technologies applied in several countries including the US where the CO2 is used for enhanced oil recovery - so has a value.
The barriers are commercial. Who pays for the infrastructure? Who compensates industry for the reduced efficiency and increased cost? Who takes long term liability for the stored CO2?
BEIS are looking at all of these issues and see CCS as essential to reach Net Zero.
But forget air capture. It is bollocks. Plant trees instead.
The increasingly bitter turf war over on Twitter between 538 and LeanTossUp on predictions for the democratic nomination race is rather funny.
Have to say my sympathies are largely with the latter.
One thing I find odd about Nate Silver on Twitter (and often other forecasters he argues with) is that these are exactly the people who should be great at understanding uncertainty but they are awful. They should say 'I think my model is better than your for [various reasons] but we get very few chances to test out numbers so I can't be at all sure. Good luck with your model.' But it takes very little for them to become defensive and start sounding like schoolboys (and worse, pundits).
Having said which, I've just read back a few LeanTossUp articles online and I'm concerned about:
1. Them describing Sanders as a 55% favourite in their Iowa caucus and therefore it is 'his to lose'; 2. Them describing him as a 66% favourite in New Hampshire and therefore 'he will almost assuredly win'; and 3. An article where they argued Steyer was the favourite to win Nevada due to all the other candidates having problems in the state (quite aside from this logic, they didn't even consider in the article if Steyer had any problems himself).
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting an incredible opportunity for CO2 storage in the depleted oil and especially gas fields of the north sea. The infrastructure is there, all we need to do is reverse the flow and CO2 can safely be stored in the same place methane was stored for millions of years. The government has looked at this twice to my knowledge and backed off. Its a no brainer. Carbon capture is the way to go to carbon neutrality.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
I was on a panel in Cardiff this week where the representative from BP admitted that carbon capture needs a price of £80 - £100 a tonne to be workable. I've heard carbon capture facilities called carbon-sucking unicorns.
Or we could just stop using hydrocarbons - internal combustion engines - to spew carbon into the air and then try and capture it. Interesting that this Govt. has already shortened the life of the ICE by five years to 2035.
There is a White Paper coming up on renewables. I'm not sure carbon capture will survive that. BEIS still has a love of wind and solar. We have a very significant wind and solar power generation resource now - but it has had £8 billion in subsidies that have sucked in some £14 billion in blades, turbines and solar panels.
In the Italian "red zone" (municiapalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia, Terranova dei Passerini and Vo Euganeo) the virus containment measures are: prohibition of exit from the area by all individuals currently present there; ban on new accesses, the suspension of events and initiatives, the closure of schools, the suspension of educational trips, the closure of museums and other cultural institutes, the suspension of the activity of public offices (except for essential services) , the suspension of insolvency procedures, the closure of all commercial activities with the exclusion of those of public utility, the suspension of transport services, the suspension of the activities of companies excluding those that provide essential services.
Blimey. The GDP consequences of that must be horrendous.
Get out of any stocks or shares. Hold cash, or supremely secure government bonds - eg Germany or Switzerland
Not Germany - they can’t print money
GBP USD CHF SGD DYOR
"In round sums, as the Special Executive knows from our accounts, the total income to date, not counting our last and undistributed dividend, has amounted to approximately one and a half million pounds sterling in the Swiss francs and Venezuelan bolivars in which for reasons of prudence–they continue to be the hardest currencies in the world–we convert all our takings." Ian Fleming, Thunderball
DYOR
LOL - mind you I work for an organisation that pre-dates the Illuminati. In fact one of the later owners of said organisation co-founded the Illuminati (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illuminati)
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Trouble is that demand for housing is - strangely - somehow faltering.
The growth point at Newark has current planning for nearly 9,000 new houses. Around 500 have so far been built and the developers are currently trying to put the whole thing on hold because they can't sell the houses they have built. They are now asking to cut the final number of houses by over 5000, to less than half the original number planned.
In the Italian "red zone" (municiapalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia, Terranova dei Passerini and Vo Euganeo) the virus containment measures are: prohibition of exit from the area by all individuals currently present there; ban on new accesses, the suspension of events and initiatives, the closure of schools, the suspension of educational trips, the closure of museums and other cultural institutes, the suspension of the activity of public offices (except for essential services) , the suspension of insolvency procedures, the closure of all commercial activities with the exclusion of those of public utility, the suspension of transport services, the suspension of the activities of companies excluding those that provide essential services.
Blimey. The GDP consequences of that must be horrendous.
Go directly to slump. Do not pass recession.
And its in the only bit of Italy that actually works, paying the bills for the rest.
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Great suggestion on building the electrical charging network. That is another investment in the future that can't fail to payoff. We are going to need this, why not borrow the money now while interest rates are low and get it done.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting rality.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only foun
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
I was on a panel in Cardiff this week where the representative from BP admitted that carbon capture needs a price of £80 - £100 a tonne to be workable. I've heard carbon capture facilities called carbon-sucking unicorns.
Or we could just stop using hydrocarbons - internal combustion engines - to spew carbon into the air and then try and capture it. Interesting that this Govt. has already shortened the life of the ICE by five years to 2035.
There is a White Paper coming up on renewables. I'm not sure carbon capture will survive that. BEIS still has a love of wind and solar. We have a very significant wind and solar power generation resource now - but it has had £8 billion in subsidies that have sucked in some £14 billion in blades, turbines and solar panels.
BEIS still HATE tidal lagoons.
CCS might not be essential to decarbonise power generation but it is essential to decarbonise industry. For cement production two thirds of the CO2 comes from calcining the limestone not burning fuel.
Oh, and BEIS like the idea of bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) because it is net negative.
I normally get paid to talk about this stuff, but tonight is pro bono.
Yes, that's what I mean. I should say "the Brexit process" perhaps. There is a reasonable chance it will be paused, as we deal with more pressing matters.
The idea we will want to put greater obstacles along supply chains even as these break down is fanciful, to me.
Yes, I think that's very plausible. (And probably wouldn't be a bad thing, reducing tension.)
I'm rather proud of the fact that we haven't succumbed to panic buying in this country so far.
Try looking up the price of hand sanitiser on Amazon, or seeing if any of the online supermarkets have any left in stock?
I might be bothered by the lack of hand sanitiser if it wasn't for the fact that apparently ordinary soap does the job just as well.
Probably better!
My top tip is to get a pulse oximetry, BP device, electronic thermometer and peak flow meter. Probably get the lot for under £50 quid on Amazon. Stock up on ibuprofen, asprin and paracetamol and any usual prescriptions.
Further than that there is reasonable evidence for Zinc as an antiviral. Perhaps a role too for turmeric and fish oils as anti inflammatory too.
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
Thankyou.
Where the F do you put money in a pandemic.
I have a hedge via a minority stake in a private synthetic peptide vaccine manufacturer.
But that’s just me.
In my view you worry too much about it. If the world goes to hell money won’t mean anything. If it survives then - with hindsight - the markets are currently oversold
In the Italian "red zone" (municiapalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia, Terranova dei Passerini and Vo Euganeo) the virus containment measures are: prohibition of exit from the area by all individuals currently present there; ban on new accesses, the suspension of events and initiatives, the closure of schools, the suspension of educational trips, the closure of museums and other cultural institutes, the suspension of the activity of public offices (except for essential services) , the suspension of insolvency procedures, the closure of all commercial activities with the exclusion of those of public utility, the suspension of transport services, the suspension of the activities of companies excluding those that provide essential services.
Blimey. The GDP consequences of that must be horrendous.
Don't forget tourism to Italy basically being cancelled. I'm supposed to go there twice in the next two months. Both look to be off.
Around 50,000 inhabitants live in Italy's red zone. Almost all of them in the area around Codogno (near Lodi, south of Milan). 10 of the 11 municipalities involved are there. The 11th is Vo Euganeo in Veneto with 3,000 inhabitants.
The local economy in these municipalities is going to be destroyed.
It the outbreak reaches Milan...well, it will be very problematic for the economy.
In the Italian "red zone" (municiapalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia, Terranova dei Passerini and Vo Euganeo) the virus containment measures are: prohibition of exit from the area by all individuals currently present there; ban on new accesses, the suspension of events and initiatives, the closure of schools, the suspension of educational trips, the closure of museums and other cultural institutes, the suspension of the activity of public offices (except for essential services) , the suspension of insolvency procedures, the closure of all commercial activities with the exclusion of those of public utility, the suspension of transport services, the suspension of the activities of companies excluding those that provide essential services.
Do you think they're going over the top with these measures?
Personally, I think these measures can make sense early in an epidemic/pandemic when the case can be made that by incurring massive local costs early, greater global/national costs can be averted, and hence the global net cost benefit is positive, even if the local one is grossly negative.
Once hope of containment is lost, I think such measures become very cost benefit negative at all levels, save perhaps the ability of local healthcare to cope.
We can do the green stuff too. It seems to me that we are wasting an incredible opportunity for CO2 storage in the depleted oil and especially gas fields of the north sea. The infrastructure is there, all we need to do is reverse the flow and CO2 can safely be stored in the same place methane was stored for millions of years. The government has looked at this twice to my knowledge and backed off. Its a no brainer. Carbon capture is the way to go to carbon neutrality.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
I was on a panel in Cardiff this week where the representative from BP admitted that carbon capture needs a price of £80 - £100 a tonne to be workable. I've heard carbon capture facilities called carbon-sucking unicorns.
Or we could just stop using hydrocarbons - internal combustion engines - to spew carbon into the air and then try and capture it. Interesting that this Govt. has already shortened the life of the ICE by five years to 2035.
There is a White Paper coming up on renewables. I'm not sure carbon capture will survive that. BEIS still has a love of wind and solar. We have a very significant wind and solar power generation resource now - but it has had £8 billion in subsidies that have sucked in some £14 billion in blades, turbines and solar panels.
BEIS still HATE tidal lagoons.
For road transport - "game over, man" - electric vehicles have won.
Carbon capture is one of those things where if the tech does a jump (which it might), you could see a big price drop. Say about a 20% probability in the next decade.
The next thing coming down the road is electrical storage, closely followed by what to do with domestic heating.
Adding hydrogen to the natural gas network is a bit yikes for me. Imagine finding out the fun way that you have caused hydrogen embrittlement in 5 million domestic boilers? Again, I think electric will win here.
On storage - we have got to the point where Li-ion storage has dropped to the point that Dinorwig can be replicated for less than £2.5Bn. A price which will keep on falling.
Roubini: "This crisis is a supply shock that you can’t fight with monetary or fiscal policy." I pointed this out here a couple of weeks ago.
Longer term it will lead to onshoring (or at least nearshoring).
More balanced economies , well paid jobs reduced consumer expenditure on tat (due to higher prices). What’s not to like?
There's a variety of reasons why Uber outsourcing and globalisation may go into reverse in the next few years.
1990 to 2020 may prove to be the peak year period, in hindsight.
I don't know about Uber outsourcing but let's just think about globalization. Additionally let's assume that even if covid19 blows itself out the same threat from bioterrorism (home genetic engineering kits ftw) means social distancing is the new normal.
Administrative work goes online. All your meetings are online. You don't need to get on a plane to sell something to someone in Brazil, your competitor in Brazil wouldn't get on a train to meet them either. Why do we care what country you're in?
Yes, that's what I mean. I should say "the Brexit process" perhaps. There is a reasonable chance it will be paused, as we deal with more pressing matters.
The idea we will want to put greater obstacles along supply chains even as these break down is fanciful, to me.
Yes, I think that's very plausible. (And probably wouldn't be a bad thing, reducing tension.)
I'm rather proud of the fact that we haven't succumbed to panic buying in this country so far.
Try looking up the price of hand sanitiser on Amazon, or seeing if any of the online supermarkets have any left in stock?
I might be bothered by the lack of hand sanitiser if it wasn't for the fact that apparently ordinary soap does the job just as well.
Probably better!
My top tip is to get a pulse oximetry, BP device, electronic thermometer and peak flow meter. Probably get the lot for under £50 quid on Amazon. Stock up on ibuprofen, asprin and paracetamol and any usual prescriptions.
Further than that there is reasonable evidence for Zinc as an antiviral. Perhaps a role too for turmeric and fish oils as anti inflammatory too.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Trouble is that demand for housing is - strangely - somehow faltering.
The growth point at Newark has current planning for nearly 9,000 new houses. Around 500 have so far been built and the developers are currently trying to put the whole thing on hold because they can't sell the houses they have built. They are now asking to cut the final number of houses by over 5000, to less than half the original number planned.
I have no idea why this is happening but it is.
Transaction taxes and prices
Builders prefer to restrict supply than to cut prices
I had a personal melt down last night for which i apologies, I’m going to stick to info that I think is correct and of interest, let’s use our global network to be the best informed group possible.
Went to an interesting talk by Chirs Goodall on Thursday who said that carbon capture is key to the Committee on Climate Change's plans for achieving the UK's carbon targets but in his opinion it was the wrong approach since it, carbon capture, is proving more difficult than expected.
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
I was on a panel in Cardiff this week where the representative from BP admitted that carbon capture needs a price of £80 - £100 a tonne to be workable. I've heard carbon capture facilities called carbon-sucking unicorns.
Or we could just stop using hydrocarbons - internal combustion engines - to spew carbon into the air and then try and capture it. Interesting that this Govt. has already shortened the life of the ICE by five years to 2035.
There is a White Paper coming up on renewables. I'm not sure carbon capture will survive that. BEIS still has a love of wind and solar. We have a very significant wind and solar power generation resource now - but it has had £8 billion in subsidies that have sucked in some £14 billion in blades, turbines and solar panels.
BEIS still HATE tidal lagoons.
For road transport - "game over, man" - electric vehicles have won.
Carbon capture is one of those things where if the tech does a jump (which it might), you could see a big price drop. Say about a 20% probability in the next decade.
The next thing coming down the road is electrical storage, closely followed by what to do with domestic heating.
Adding hydrogen to the natural gas network is a bit yikes for me. Imagine finding out the fun way that you have caused hydrogen embrittlement in 5 million domestic boilers? Again, I think electric will win here.
On storage - we have got to the point where Li-ion storage has dropped to the point that Dinorwig can be replicated for less than £2.5Bn. A price which will keep on falling.
I think the hydrogen would go into gas power generation although I believe the domestic gas distribution network is currently being converted to plastic pipes - not sure of the timescales.
For road transport - "game over, man" - electric vehicles have won.
Carbon capture is one of those things where if the tech does a jump (which it might), you could see a big price drop. Say about a 20% probability in the next decade.
The next thing coming down the road is electrical storage, closely followed by what to do with domestic heating.
Adding hydrogen to the natural gas network is a bit yikes for me. Imagine finding out the fun way that you have caused hydrogen embrittlement in 5 million domestic boilers? Again, I think electric will win here.
On storage - we have got to the point where Li-ion storage has dropped to the point that Dinorwig can be replicated for less than £2.5Bn. A price which will keep on falling.
Hydrogen is going to be primarily used for haulage and especially in rural areas to power agricultural vehicles (tractors, combines). But the issue then is the source for the zero-carbon power to create that hydrogen.
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
Thankyou.
Where the F do you put money in a pandemic.
I have a hedge via a minority stake in a private synthetic peptide vaccine manufacturer.
But that’s just me.
In my view you worry too much about it. If the world goes to hell money won’t mean anything. If it survives then - with hindsight - the markets are currently oversold
Remember, I come on here to worry, and also kvetch, argue, vex, remonstrate and dissemble.
I'm not like this in real life. Most of my real friends are unaware I am even concerned about coronavirus. I dump it all on you.
Of course you do.
You wouldn’t want anyone who knows where you live to be aware that you have a store of critical supplies when the apocalypse comes
Roubini: "This crisis is a supply shock that you can’t fight with monetary or fiscal policy." I pointed this out here a couple of weeks ago.
Longer term it will lead to onshoring (or at least nearshoring).
More balanced economies , well paid jobs reduced consumer expenditure on tat (due to higher prices). What’s not to like?
There's a variety of reasons why Uber outsourcing and globalisation may go into reverse in the next few years.
1990 to 2020 may prove to be the peak year period, in hindsight.
I don't know about Uber outsourcing but let's just think about globalization. Additionally let's assume that even if covid19 blows itself out the same threat from bioterrorism (home genetic engineering kits ftw) means social distancing is the new normal.
Administrative work goes online. All your meetings are online. You don't need to get on a plane to sell something to someone in Brazil, your competitor in Brazil wouldn't get on a train to meet them either. Why do we care what country you're in?
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Trouble is that demand for housing is - strangely - somehow faltering.
The growth point at Newark has current planning for nearly 9,000 new houses. Around 500 have so far been built and the developers are currently trying to put the whole thing on hold because they can't sell the houses they have built. They are now asking to cut the final number of houses by over 5000, to less than half the original number planned.
I have no idea why this is happening but it is.
So much housing has been built around Leics over the last few years that I think the market saturated here, but interesting to hear from Newark.
Private practice has been quiet for months, that is another leading indicator for a troubled economy.
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
Roubini: "This crisis is a supply shock that you can’t fight with monetary or fiscal policy." I pointed this out here a couple of weeks ago.
Longer term it will lead to onshoring (or at least nearshoring).
More balanced economies , well paid jobs reduced consumer expenditure on tat (due to higher prices). What’s not to like?
There's a variety of reasons why Uber outsourcing and globalisation may go into reverse in the next few years.
1990 to 2020 may prove to be the peak year period, in hindsight.
I don't know about Uber outsourcing but let's just think about globalization. Additionally let's assume that even if covid19 blows itself out the same threat from bioterrorism (home genetic engineering kits ftw) means social distancing is the new normal.
Administrative work goes online. All your meetings are online. You don't need to get on a plane to sell something to someone in Brazil, your competitor in Brazil wouldn't get on a train to meet them either. Why do we care what country you're in?
Culture.
The same thing applies though. If we're interacting online, and geographical distance doesn't matter because I'm scared of getting the dreaded lurgy from my neighbours, culture develops independently of borders, or distance.
Roubini: "This crisis is a supply shock that you can’t fight with monetary or fiscal policy." I pointed this out here a couple of weeks ago.
Longer term it will lead to onshoring (or at least nearshoring).
More balanced economies , well paid jobs reduced consumer expenditure on tat (due to higher prices). What’s not to like?
There's a variety of reasons why Uber outsourcing and globalisation may go into reverse in the next few years.
1990 to 2020 may prove to be the peak year period, in hindsight.
I don't know about Uber outsourcing but let's just think about globalization. Additionally let's assume that even if covid19 blows itself out the same threat from bioterrorism (home genetic engineering kits ftw) means social distancing is the new normal.
Administrative work goes online. All your meetings are online. You don't need to get on a plane to sell something to someone in Brazil, your competitor in Brazil wouldn't get on a train to meet them either. Why do we care what country you're in?
Your Brazilian customer thinks he would rather match his exposure to viruses with his suppliers. If his supply chain is vulnerable irrespective of where it is he would rather it breaks down, if it breaks down at all, in sync with his customer base so that supply and demand decline hand in hand, rather than lose UK supply but have local demand unaffected.
The answer to every Housing Association's application should be, yes, but could you do a bit more? All road schemes that have been planned but waiting for funds are go. Surely there is some planning done for the northern powerhouse rail, lets start Crossrail 2. Tell the courts to do one and start all the preparatory work for Heathrow approach roads, tunnel for the M25 etc. Really accelerate the creation of electrical charge points and ban diesels from city centres within a couple of years.
Trouble is that demand for housing is - strangely - somehow faltering.
The growth point at Newark has current planning for nearly 9,000 new houses. Around 500 have so far been built and the developers are currently trying to put the whole thing on hold because they can't sell the houses they have built. They are now asking to cut the final number of houses by over 5000, to less than half the original number planned.
I have no idea why this is happening but it is.
So much housing has been built around Leics over the last few years that I think the market saturated here, but interesting to hear from Newark.
Private practice has been quiet for months, that is another leading indicator for a troubled economy.
Ex-customers of mine in the advertising and publishing business are struggling. Some web developers I know have had projects put on hold and other work re-costed.
It was like that at some months before the slowdown in 2008
In the Italian "red zone" (municiapalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia, Terranova dei Passerini and Vo Euganeo) the virus containment measures are: prohibition of exit from the area by all individuals currently present there; ban on new accesses, the suspension of events and initiatives, the closure of schools, the suspension of educational trips, the closure of museums and other cultural institutes, the suspension of the activity of public offices (except for essential services) , the suspension of insolvency procedures, the closure of all commercial activities with the exclusion of those of public utility, the suspension of transport services, the suspension of the activities of companies excluding those that provide essential services.
Blimey. The GDP consequences of that must be horrendous.
Go directly to slump. Do not pass recession.
That's just a few small towns in northern Italy, however,
If that extends wider, then yes: slump.
"the suspension of insolvency procedures"
That's a good idea if you are shutting down all economic activity.
Interesting thoughts on here about what the government should do to support the economy in the face of the seemingly inevitable receession/crash/slump.
Reassuring to know that Cimmings and his team of superforecasters will be well on top of this (!).
The surprise will be the return of inflation. Probably toward the end of the year. Unfortunately that is going to bring on serious pain for variable rate debt holders, including, in the medium term, some governments.
i was thinking the same. Here comes inflation. Which means buy Swiss bonds, even at a negative rate.
Buy Linkers not Swissies if it’s inflation protection you want
Thankyou.
Where the F do you put money in a pandemic.
I have a hedge via a minority stake in a private synthetic peptide vaccine manufacturer.
But that’s just me.
In my view you worry too much about it. If the world goes to hell money won’t mean anything. If it survives then - with hindsight - the markets are currently oversold
Remember, I come on here to worry, and also kvetch, argue, vex, remonstrate and dissemble.
I'm not like this in real life. Most of my real friends are unaware I am even concerned about coronavirus. I dump it all on you.
Of course you do.
You wouldn’t want anyone who knows where you live to be aware that you have a store of critical supplies when the apocalypse comes
😉
Today I have been seriously considering moving out of London for a few months. Hunker down with relatives in a modestly remote location. Do a Proper Boccaccio.
Make sure they have 3 months of decent food, water, and good wine. Why not? My job means I can do that. And quarantine those I love.
And then the Normalcy Bias in my head kicks in, and says Calm down, this is mad, you don't have to do this, it won't get that bad.
It's hard to know which voice to listen to. The Hysterical Panicking Angel or the Normalcy Bias Demon.
You should probably go and buy extra loo paper though
Comments
You would also get the return sooner.
I would get all things like those promised hospitals projects funded as well. I really see no downside to getting capacity that is already needed green lit now, rather than doing it all in bits and pieces.
Though perhaps at higher cost and in smaller quantities than the low end producers.
If there are going to be tax cuts they should be in areas like VAT or pesonal allowances (coupled with benefit rises for those that don't pay tax). Every penny you give to the poorest will get spent back into the economy.
Tax rises for the wealthy won't cut demand one iota, nor are many going to flee the country this year now, so they might as well go ahead to (at least partially) offset tax cuts for the poor and more infrastructure investment.
Borrowing will be allowed to rise no doubt.
In the early 00s there were tax incentives to spur computerisation, this would aim to do something similar for decentralisation. It might also help keep young professionals in the provinces rather than encouraging them to move to the big cities.
If Boris and Cumming are truly serious about levelling up revolution, this crisis might actually get everybody behind some serious infrastructure (when other than the twats who rip up lawns, they can do one).
If the French don't get access to our fish, then why should they stop migrants?
But certainly not on imported consumer tat.
Perversely tomorrow could well see a rise, after seven straight days of falls but it will surely be short-lived. Expect to see the index down further again by the end of next week.
More balanced economies , well paid jobs reduced consumer expenditure on tat (due to higher prices). What’s not to like?
GBP USD CHF SGD DYOR
Who is going to test them for a specific illness? Once they are in the EU, is anyone going to prevent them heading straight to the UK (where the bulk of Iranians have been heading for?)
If the French don't get access to our fish, then why should they stop migrants?
@MarqueeMark
OMG...I thought this Nazi kind of horror shitshow was in the past...migrants equate to disease ridden pests....
Listen to yourself comrade......Very highly fucking unpleasant
Most people brining in the virus have been the English middle classes returning back from ski trips in northern Italy....
Have to say my sympathies are largely with the latter.
Ended up going to the GP to check it wasn't something else.
DYOR
1990 to 2020 may prove to be the peak year period, in hindsight.
Tourism, restaurants, hotels, hospitality and large public events will lose a season to staycation, so could do with some sort of financial safety net to prevent mass bankruptcies and secondary domino effects on other parts of the economy.
I almost forgot about it.
I am actually surprised turnout was as high as 15% at 7pm
Last week we had a Senate by-election in Naples which had a 9.8% turnout (for what it matters, Movement 5 Stars lost the seat to PD)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdvJSGc14xA
He didn't go into detail but extracting the carbon from emmissions or the atmosphere (where it is only found at 0.04%) is very difficult apparently.
I can't tell if he or the CCC is right but if it were easy, why aren't we doing it?
If shares collapse this week by a further 10-15%- and the coronavirus threat maintains it's momentum...we will be in uncharted waters.....
Looking at the China figures, and figures from other winter pandemics, 3 weeks from emergence to peak (note that not all of that 3 weeks is exponential growth) then 3 weeks to lower to a post epidemic base rate looks like a reasonable pattern.
If we look at their numbers, perhaps 0.2% of Hunan got infected, and 0.005% died. In one sense, not having the Chinese figures on a neighborhood level, this underestimates infection rates drastically, but it does demonstrate localisation.
Of course, as the number of clusters increases, we will look at outbreaks in different locations simultaneously. The central locations in Italy remain in two clusters SE of Milan and SW of Venice, spanning 8-10 of Italy's 300 or so provinces - there is geographical spreading, but it is creeping rather than explosive - there are still very few infections reported NW of Milan toward the lakes for instance, and one might think of the ones they do have as non-local transmission to the provinces they are reported against.
Look, I'm not saying this won't ultimately be bad over the next 3-4 years, but measures to slow the progress will save many lives, and whole nation, one hit catastrophe is not how this looks like it will play out.
That's what happens when you put a 5 year old in charge.
https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/
Mainly because you can go country by country and see their infections and deaths by day. The last three days for almost every country is quite sobering.
There’s an ETF, INXG, which is an easy way to buy into a basket of UK ones.
Decree by the government this evening decided that for next week in "yellow areas" (Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna)...
In these territories, sports events and competitions are suspended, as well as the travels of fans. However, the decree allows competitions to be held behind closed doors. All "non-ordinary" events, including cultural, recreational, sporting and religious events (cinemas, theaters, discos etc.) are also suspended. The opening of places of worship will be conditioned by the adoption of organizational measures to avoid gatherings of people. Schools of all grades will remain closed. The museums will be open on condition that they ensure a quota fruition method. Public competitions are suspended. Bars and restaurants will be able to carry out the services on the condition that they only serve customers with a seat and the customers will have to stay one meter away. There will be a limitation of visitor access to hospital facilities. Ordinary leave of for health staff is suspended. In the provinces of Bergamo, Lodi, Piacenza and Cremona, large shopping centers are expected to close on the weekend. Gyms, sports centers and spas will remain closed in Lombardy and the province of Piacenza. The judicial offices will have a shorter schedule.
Planting more trees is good, protecting carbon sinks is good, doubling down on renewables sources is also good. All of these things can be done with existing systems and technology, but require quite a bit of political will.
Oh grow up.
The bulk of the migrants crossing the Channel in recent months have been Iranians. They just have.
The Iranians have a massive problem with Covid-19. They just have.
There will be a heightened effort to escape Iran if you have the money. It is just human nature.
Turkey has effectively just opened the border into the EU. No checks on the health of the migrants (for that is what they are).
So who is going to undertake those checks within an EU already struggling with their domestic outbreaks? If they want to just pass on through to the Channel, the authorities will probably put them on sealed buses/trains and disinfect the buses/trains afterwards. There may indeed be 1930s/40's undertones, but it will be European states doing the equating. It is unpleasant, yes. But I'm just reading the runes here. Because nobody is going to say "tell you what, we really need to stop them getting to the UK, so we'll look after them...."
We are very lucky to have a large, shallow, windy sea to our east.
On carbon capture - we are are one or 2 breakthroughs away from rather cheap bio-kerosene (equivalent) production. Which would mean aviation suddenly going net zero...
My top tip is to get a pulse oximetry, BP device, electronic thermometer and peak flow meter. Probably get the lot for under £50 quid on Amazon. Stock up on ibuprofen, asprin and paracetamol and any usual prescriptions.
Further than that there is reasonable evidence for Zinc as an antiviral. Perhaps a role too for turmeric and fish oils as anti inflammatory too.
https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/137544341/nmz013fig1.jpg
The barriers are commercial. Who pays for the infrastructure? Who compensates industry for the reduced efficiency and increased cost? Who takes long term liability for the stored CO2?
BEIS are looking at all of these issues and see CCS as essential to reach Net Zero.
But forget air capture. It is bollocks. Plant trees instead.
1. Them describing Sanders as a 55% favourite in their Iowa caucus and therefore it is 'his to lose';
2. Them describing him as a 66% favourite in New Hampshire and therefore 'he will almost assuredly win'; and
3. An article where they argued Steyer was the favourite to win Nevada due to all the other candidates having problems in the state (quite aside from this logic, they didn't even consider in the article if Steyer had any problems himself).
Or we could just stop using hydrocarbons - internal combustion engines - to spew carbon into the air and then try and capture it. Interesting that this Govt. has already shortened the life of the ICE by five years to 2035.
There is a White Paper coming up on renewables. I'm not sure carbon capture will survive that. BEIS still has a love of wind and solar. We have a very significant wind and solar power generation resource now - but it has had £8 billion in subsidies that have sucked in some £14 billion in blades, turbines and solar panels.
BEIS still HATE tidal lagoons.
The growth point at Newark has current planning for nearly 9,000 new houses. Around 500 have so far been built and the developers are currently trying to put the whole thing on hold because they can't sell the houses they have built. They are now asking to cut the final number of houses by over 5000, to less than half the original number planned.
I have no idea why this is happening but it is.
https://www.vanguard.co.uk/documents/adv/literature/understanding-inflation-linked-bonds.pdf
Oh, and BEIS like the idea of bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) because it is net negative.
I normally get paid to talk about this stuff, but tonight is pro bono.
Night all.
That is what I use (although it hasn't help keep the nastiest chest infection for decades at bay this winter...)
Good to know about zinc though.
But that’s just me.
In my view you worry too much about it. If the world goes to hell money won’t mean anything. If it survives then - with hindsight - the markets are currently oversold
The local economy in these municipalities is going to be destroyed.
It the outbreak reaches Milan...well, it will be very problematic for the economy.
Once hope of containment is lost, I think such measures become very cost benefit negative at all levels, save perhaps the ability of local healthcare to cope.
It is not an easy calculation.
Carbon capture is one of those things where if the tech does a jump (which it might), you could see a big price drop. Say about a 20% probability in the next decade.
The next thing coming down the road is electrical storage, closely followed by what to do with domestic heating.
Adding hydrogen to the natural gas network is a bit yikes for me. Imagine finding out the fun way that you have caused hydrogen embrittlement in 5 million domestic boilers? Again, I think electric will win here.
On storage - we have got to the point where Li-ion storage has dropped to the point that Dinorwig can be replicated for less than £2.5Bn. A price which will keep on falling.
Administrative work goes online. All your meetings are online. You don't need to get on a plane to sell something to someone in Brazil, your competitor in Brazil wouldn't get on a train to meet them either. Why do we care what country you're in?
Builders prefer to restrict supply than to cut prices
You wouldn’t want anyone who knows where you live to be aware that you have a store of critical supplies when the apocalypse comes
😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0XzinILW4c
Private practice has been quiet for months, that is another leading indicator for a troubled economy.
It was like that at some months before the slowdown in 2008
That's a good idea if you are shutting down all economic activity.
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1234222829475901442?s=20
Reassuring to know that Cimmings and his team of superforecasters will be well on top of this (!).