The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
And judging by my own youngsters these promises weren’t even believed. Take the free broadband one - the instant reaction was that such a government service would probably be “shit” and, when told that there would be no other choice, unprintable. I am not at all sure that Corbyn’s Labour really does have its finger on the pulse of the young metropolitan middle class, as opposed to a subset of it. They want what their parents were able to get. A party which gives the impression that it hates the concept of private property is not that in touch with the aspiring middle classes.
Morning all and goodness what a few days it has been. As I predicted, the LibDems (can start calling them that again since they are now utterly irrelevant) did indeed go backwards and very fitting that the net loss of 1 seat was their leader. Personally although I could never vote for him as an MP, I am delighted and hugely surprised that Jamie Stone has survived. Clearly at the last moment many SCon voters indeed decided he was the lesser evil than another SNP robot.
What now?
I am very encouraged by the fact that Boris is making huge overtures to the new blue working class voters in the north. It was interesting to hear voter after voter pointing out yesterday that they, their parents and their grandparents had always voted Labour and in fact in return the Labour party had never done anything for them. I do hope Boris now piles money into regeneration of these towns and cities which have suffered at the expense of making London richer and richer.
As for Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon ran a successful campaign and was rightly rewarded for that. The fact that half the SCon MPs survived and the SCons are now indeed the alternative to the SNP means we will have endless wrangling while in England and Wales people will knuckle down to getting on with the things in life which make their lives better. The SNP has to decide whether Scotland is Quebec or Catalonia. I suspect the majority of Scots want it to be Quebec, having a powerful devolved government with different aims but never the less part of a wider political nation, in our case the UK rather than Canada. If they go down the Catalonia route, we will have civil strife, legal battles and people like me will feel increasingly afraid of remaining in Scotland as we are made to feel more and more like unwelcome foreigners in our own country. Of course the irony is that if the SNP goes down the Catalonia route, almost certainly Spain would then veto an independent Scotland joining the EU. Orkney and Shetland would make clear they would not be part of an independent Scotland and instead choose to be the Channel Islands of the north. I can only hope that Boris will play the long game and that as with Quebec, the nationalists will overplay their hand. Right I am off back to the 18th century and my family trees and genealogical books where I feel most comfortable.
I think that there is reflection to do perhaps. My impressions as an occasional LD voter in the past.
I am in the North end of Ashfield, and in most of my local seats the story is that the Labour vote fell by 15-25% and went elsewhere, rather than mainly upward growth in the Tories. In terms of totals, in Ashfield it went to Zadrozny mainly - Tory vote down 2.4%. In Bolsover it went to BXP and Tory. In Mansfield where the MP is a community focused Tory, who I think has done a Davey Kingston 1992-1997, it went to him (+17%).
The drivers were Brexit and especially revulsion for Corbyn, which I saw everywhere just by asking for opinions. He was specifically disowned by Lab canvassers even. Suspect here it was his useful-idiot-for-terrorists record, and incredulity at his fantasy economics, rather than antisemitism. It is a military area, and many have family or friends or schoolfriends who have been IRA targets or victims; the history of Jezza supping with the IRA in Parliament does not encourage.
I think Swinson's inexperience was a problem. Being polite, a key traditional Lib Dem skill was to be able to say entirely different things to different people, by change of emphasis. If the fundamentalist remainer position adopted by Farron was partly tactical, Swinson baked that into a dogma and went out of her way to pour scorn and abuse on those who took a different view.
How on earth was she allowed to do a Chris Patten 1992 (tbf she had a bigger majority before but you know the SNP)?
Go back and read her leadership acceptance and conference speeches. The hapless misunderstanding of the other is visible there under the honeyed inclusive claims.
In my view the effect of that is that you have ploughed salt into your future target fields for growing new voters across half the country; not clever and you are going to have to think carefully where you sew.
The only Lib Dem Councillors left standing within 10 miles and more of my desk are those that rebranded themselves Ashfield Independents. The rest have gone; all of them. I think the nearest (look at a map) are Beeston, Newark, Tupton, and I think Clowne....
That is a very good post.
I think you’re entirely right in your point about emphasis (which is not necessarily dishonesty, as you imply). Even the revoke policy could have been fine, had she admitted it could only happen with an overwhelming electoral mandate (ie an outright parliamentary majority) which the party was extremely unlikely to get. It might then have served its intended signalling purpose without any negative effects.
The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
The result that really caused my jaw to drop in the small hours of Friday morning was Mansfield.
In Blair's big win in 1997, it had a Labour majority of 20,000. In 2005 it was still 11,000.
It was my personal WTF???? moment of 2017 when the Tories took it. I know Mansfield. The idea it could go Tory was off-the-scale bonkers. Yet it went blue with a majority of a little over 1,000.
So what was the reaction to the town of having a Tory MP for a couple of years. Any degree of buyers remorse? Might the hope he embodied turn to ash?
Nope.
There was a further swing to the Conservatives. Of an astonishing 15.5%. He now has a majority of 16,300. That is Tory-shire safe.
If this response proves anything like the response in those seats the Tories took on Thursday, Labour is dead in the water for several more Parliaments.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
I think that there is reflection to do perhaps. My impressions as an occasional LD voter in the past.
I am in the North end of Ashfield, and in most of my local seats the story is that the Labour vote fell by 15-25% and went elsewhere, rather than mainly upward growth in the Tories. In terms of totals, in Ashfield it went to Zadrozny mainly - Tory vote down 2.4%. In Bolsover it went to BXP and Tory. In Mansfield where the MP is a community focused Tory, who I think has done a Davey Kingston 1992-1997, it went to him (+17%).
The drivers were Brexit and especially revulsion for Corbyn, which I saw everywhere just by asking for opinions. He was specifically disowned by Lab canvassers even. Suspect here it was his useful-idiot-for-terrorists record, and incredulity at his fantasy economics, rather than antisemitism. It is a military area, and many have family or friends or schoolfriends who have been IRA targets or victims; the history of Jezza supping with the IRA in Parliament does not encourage.
I think Swinson's inexperience was a problem. Being polite, a key traditional Lib Dem skill was to be able to say entirely different things to different people, by change of emphasis. If the fundamentalist remainer position adopted by Farron was partly tactical, Swinson baked that into a dogma and went out of her way to pour scorn and abuse on those who took a different view.
How on earth was she allowed to do a Chris Patten 1992 (tbf she had a bigger majority before but you know the SNP)?
Go back and read her leadership acceptance and conference speeches. The hapless misunderstanding of the other is visible there under the honeyed inclusive claims.
In my view the effect of that is that you have ploughed salt into your future target fields for growing new voters across half the country; not clever and you are going to have to think carefully where you sew.
The only Lib Dem Councillors left standing within 10 miles and more of my desk are those that rebranded themselves Ashfield Independents. The rest have gone; all of them. I think the nearest (look at a map) are Beeston, Newark, Tupton, and I think Clowne....
That is a very good post.
I think you’re entirely right in your point about emphasis (which is not necessarily dishonesty, as you imply). Even the revoke policy could have been fine, had she admitted it could only happen with an overwhelming electoral mandate (ie an outright parliamentary majority) which the party was extremely unlikely to get. It might then have served its intended signalling purpose without any negative effects.
Jo Swinson needed to be equally circumspect on the likelihood of her being PM.
Luciana Berger should have stayed and fought. She'd still be an MP, and looking forward to Corbyn's retirement. Instead she did her best to prove her antisemitic, trotskyite abusers right.
You don't refute allegations you are a red Tory by defecting to the LibDems. Nor do you refute antisemitic abuse by decamping to a more Jewish constituency as if you really do believe Jews vote robotically for other Jews. That is the sort of racist nonsense we are fighting.
Somewhat unusually I disagree fairly fundamentally with this piece. The lessons I think that we learned from the last incompetent Parliament are:
1. Breaking into the existing oligopoly of parties is incredibly difficult. The Tiggers were annihilated and the Brexit Party did no better. Those that went out on their own are all now ex-MP. Parliament is the sort of closed shop that your most militant shop steward can only dream of.
2. The weakness and incompetence of Labour led to their increasing collapse in Scotland where there is the sort of centre left alternative that does not exist in England. There may be no way back there now.
3. The Lib Dems made several strategic mistakes but their biggest by far was not going for Labour's throat when they were so vulnerable. If they want to play a major role in our governance, as opposed to a minor role in our politics, they need to replace Labour in the same way as the SNP have. They will almost certainly never get a better chance.
The sad conclusion I have come to, which I think nearly all politicians will now share, is that breaking away from the existing structures is fatal. Far better to hang in there and seek to change the mood inside the party.
There is huge anger in Labour about what the Corbynists did to their party, the disgusting moral failings, the delusional economics and, most fundamentally, losing. Whether that anger can be marshaled into a regaining of the party by the moderates remains to be seen but even if they fail the institutional strength of the oligopoly protects Labour from too much harm.
From a distance it seems to me that throughout the SNP's rise to replace Labour, they went out of their way to stay anti-Tory?
More from the time Nicola took charge. Salmond had his first successes in Tartan Tory seats and always tried to keep them on board. Nicola made the strategic move to replace Labour on the centre left and gain control of the central belt, even if it did cost a few seats in the borders and the NE. It was a brilliant move and has made the SNP as dominant in Scotland as the old SLP ever were.
I'm not, she tried to unseat a very popular MP when she could have gone to Harrow West and hit Labour much harder there. Our candidate was useless and I think a lot of our voters would have backed her there. But Brexit seems to rule all with the Lib Dems and they decided that going for an unwinnable Tory seat in Finchley would be better than going for a winnable Labour one.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
Agreed. I wasn’t impressed by Rayner at first but she has grown on me. One way and another she would be the smart choice.
And if she can impress a teacher while holding the Education brief, she’s clearly got something about her.
@Alistair Best to be in a governing parties marginal I reckon though if you want attention for your constituency. My own seat has gone straight to safe seat for the Tories though lol
I was hoping that the Lib Dems might get a bit closer to the Tories in Woking for that very reason.
That said, I don't think governments worry too much about this sort of thing.
Some Tory seats now con/LD marginals, e.g. Wimbledon - Tory majority now 628 Esher & Walton - almost a Portillo moment with Raab - 20 thousand cut in majority.
BTW my stepson says the story of the child on the floor in A and E was true... was it? I thought it had been found to be fake???
It was true. You must have been caught out by fake news, Russian trolls, or CCHQ muddying the waters. As an aside, the child's mother complained to OFCOM, or rather CCHQ did so on her behalf, in an attempt to suppress the story.
I think everyone was.. but its just the sort of dirty thing Labour would do. I was prepared to believe it was not true for that very reason.
This will, I fear, in time become the story of this election. Dirty tricks, doubtless from all sides, on social media and elsewhere. It is hard to refute your opponents' argument if you do not even know what that opponent is saying. We are also moving closer to America in that each side has its own facts and truth does not matter.
Its the media's job to call out the lies, but they are not very good at it or do not want to Suppose C4 news called out the Tories on something. C4 news is so left wing it must be breaking its charter on impartiality. I would not trust C4 news under any circumstances whatsoever.
You prefer the lies of the likes of the mail and Express or the state propaganda unit I presume
The state propaganda unit’s “journalists” have not even been trying to conceal their delight at The Clown’s victory. It’ll end in tears.
Yes The "sainted" Nicola is heading for a fall.
Nicola is not remotely saint like. She’s a lovely, down to earth lady. She’s had her fair share of life’s ups and downs, and will cope just fine with the challenges ahead, both private and public.
I once bumped into her at the Partick DSS. She’s seen real life. Unlike most Tory toe-rags.
Broadly I agree with that. What makes me sad about Sturgeon is that unlike Gordon Brown, who at some point in his formative years met people who instilled in him the belief that he could lead the UK, Nicola Sturgeon found people who instilled in her a sense of grievance and a feeling that she was looked down upon. That's sad for her, and unfortunate for the rest of us.
@Alistair Best to be in a governing parties marginal I reckon though if you want attention for your constituency. My own seat has gone straight to safe seat for the Tories though lol
I was hoping that the Lib Dems might get a bit closer to the Tories in Woking for that very reason.
That said, I don't think governments worry too much about this sort of thing.
Some Tory seats now con/LD marginals, e.g. Wimbledon - Tory majority now 628 Esher & Walton - almost a Portillo moment with Raab - 20 thousand cut in majority.
We'll never know, but having an election in the midst of a month long strike on SWR might not have been optimal for the Tories in SW London.
This will, I fear, in time become the story of this election. Dirty tricks, doubtless from all sides, on social media and elsewhere. It is hard to refute your opponents' argument if you do not even know what that opponent is saying. We are also moving closer to America in that each side has its own facts and truth does not matter.
You prefer the lies of the likes of the mail and Express or the state propaganda unit I presume
The state propaganda unit’s “journalists” have not even been trying to conceal their delight at The Clown’s victory. It’ll end in tears.
Yes The "sainted" Nicola is heading for a fall.
Nicola is not remotely saint like. She’s a lovely, down to earth lady. She’s had her fair share of life’s ups and downs, and will cope just fine with the challenges ahead, both private and public.
She's easily the most effective political operator we've got - and without the manifest personal failings of the two UK main party leaders. But Mr Gravity is patient and relentless - when he finally does come calling, who is to replace her?
Fortunately, talent is not a scarce resource in our party.
Ian Blackford is by far the most effective opposition leader in the Commons.
He's a pompous windbag not fit to clean Angus Robertson's shoes. "More effective than Jeremy Corbyn" is not a high hurdle.
I think that is a little harsh although I too preferred Robertson. The SNP have a chronic lack of talent in Holyrood (along with everyone else in fairness) but actually quite a strong group in Westminster. I wonder if some of them might be tempted north.
I think it’s a bit unfair to say Boris Johnson hasn’t seen real life, he’s big on it. Really big. So big, indeed, he can’t say for sure how much of it he’s created.
The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
The result that really caused my jaw to drop in the small hours of Friday morning was Mansfield.
In Blair's big win in 1997, it had a Labour majority of 20,000. In 2005 it was still 11,000.
It was my personal WTF???? moment of 2017 when the Tories took it. I know Mansfield. The idea it could go Tory was off-the-scale bonkers. Yet it went blue with a majority of a little over 1,000.
So what was the reaction to the town of having a Tory MP for a couple of years. Any degree of buyers remorse? Might the hope he embodied turn to ash?
Nope.
There was a further swing to the Conservatives. Of an astonishing 15.5%. He now has a majority of 16,300. That is Tory-shire safe.
If this response proves anything like the response in those seats the Tories took on Thursday, Labour is dead in the water for several more Parliaments.
The Mansfield Tory MP has a reputation for being both assiduous and focussed on his seat. Unlike former Labour MPs, e.g. the one in 1987 who called all his voters twats for not coming out in 1984 (they still elected him, of course).
That should be a lesson for these new MPs. Most of these areas have been appallingly neglected by all governments. THis has encouraged a pre-existing parochialism that leads them to view London with suspicion. If they see their MPs fighting for local interests, I have little doubt they will back them again. If not...
The most interesting parallel for me for Mansfield is Ed Davey on Kingston / Surbiton in the 1990s.
255 majority when he won it. IIRC 16,000 next time around. In between he personally had contact with an estimated 35040k constituents.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
Good analysis. From the point of view of one who would only vote Labour in an emergency, only Benn and Jess Phillips (of course she is an opportunist, she's an ambitious politician) would cause me to hover over the ballot paper. Burgon would make a good party hack in North Korea, the sooner the better.
It has just occurred to me that all of the four great offices of state are held by ethnic minorities - Circassian, Asiatic (two) and Jewish.
That is something I had not noticed, partly because I was more concerned with how disastrously unequal they are to their jobs. Javid is the best but he’s a pale shadow of Hammond and Osborne.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
Agreed. I wasn’t impressed by Rayner at first but she has grown on me. One way and another she would be the smart choice.
And if she can impress a teacher while holding the Education brief, she’s clearly got something about her.
Didn't think too much of Rayner when she was on the box the other day. Think Starmer's an excellent No2. Bearing in mind that any Labour leader elected this Spring is going to have to be LotO until around October 2024, I'd go for Phillips. Combative, effective, no-nonsense Midlands lady. I think she and Starmer would be a very effective combination.
@Alistair Best to be in a governing parties marginal I reckon though if you want attention for your constituency. My own seat has gone straight to safe seat for the Tories though lol
I was hoping that the Lib Dems might get a bit closer to the Tories in Woking for that very reason.
That said, I don't think governments worry too much about this sort of thing.
Some Tory seats now con/LD marginals, e.g. Wimbledon - Tory majority now 628 Esher & Walton - almost a Portillo moment with Raab - 20 thousand cut in majority.
This is with a background of brexit, in 5 years that's not going to be the case. People will have moved on, the question is whether the Lib Dems will have.
The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
The result that really caused my jaw to drop in the small hours of Friday morning was Mansfield.
In Blair's big win in 1997, it had a Labour majority of 20,000. In 2005 it was still 11,000.
It was my personal WTF???? moment of 2017 when the Tories took it. I know Mansfield. The idea it could go Tory was off-the-scale bonkers. Yet it went blue with a majority of a little over 1,000.
So what was the reaction to the town of having a Tory MP for a couple of years. Any degree of buyers remorse? Might the hope he embodied turn to ash?
Nope.
There was a further swing to the Conservatives. Of an astonishing 15.5%. He now has a majority of 16,300. That is Tory-shire safe.
If this response proves anything like the response in those seats the Tories took on Thursday, Labour is dead in the water for several more Parliaments.
The Mansfield Tory MP has a reputation for being both assiduous and focussed on his seat. Unlike former Labour MPs, e.g. the one in 1987 who called all his voters twats for not coming out in 1984 (they still elected him, of course).
That should be a lesson for these new MPs. Most of these areas have been appallingly neglected by all governments. THis has encouraged a pre-existing parochialism that leads them to view London with suspicion. If they see their MPs fighting for local interests, I have little doubt they will back them again. If not...
The most interesting parallel for me for Mansfield is Ed Davey on Kingston / Surbiton in the 1990s.
255 majority when he won it. IIRC 16,000 next time around. In between he personally had contact with an estimated 35040k constituents.
Contacted 35040k constituents? That's assiduous! Or else you've got Diane Abbot running those estimates....
Not convinced that the EP elections "shows a breakdown on the right". I think it showed the relatively well marshalled discipline of the right who voted Brexit to make a clear point but would never allow Brexit/Ukip/assorted extremists anywhere near actual power. The loyal centre right, most of whom never discuss politics in public, social media, PB or anywhere else were queuing up in droves on Thursday from 7 am onwards, principally to make sure that Corbyn was sent back to run a foodbank in Venezuela.
A good magnanimous move by Boris would be to bring Theresa May back into cabinet.
Maybe DEFRA would be good.
Boris can't bring Theresa May back into office. Imagine her first interview with Andrew Neil, or even Holly Willoughby: nice shoes; you restricted Boris's access to secret information because he was a security risk; what's changed?
Just be blunt - hes ny boss now, that's what's changed. Or just say the public have put their faith in him and she trusts that.
Morning all and goodness what a few days it has been. As I predicted, the LibDems (can start calling them that again since they are now utterly irrelevant) did indeed go backwards and very fitting that the net loss of 1 seat was their leader. Personally although I could never vote for him as an MP, I am delighted and hugely surprised that Jamie Stone has survived. Clearly at the last moment many SCon voters indeed decided he was the lesser evil than another SNP robot.
What now?
I am very encouraged by the fact that Boris is making huge overtures to the new blue working class voters in the north. It was interesting to hear voter after voter pointing out yesterday that they, their parents and their grandparents had always voted Labour and in fact in return the Labour party had never done anything for them. I do hope Boris now piles money into regeneration of these towns and cities which have suffered at the expense of making London richer and richer.
As for Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon ran a successful campaign and was rightly rewarded for that. The fact that half the SCon MPs survived and the SCons are now indeed the alternative to the SNP means we will have endless wrangling while in England and Wales people will knuckle down to getting on with the things in life which make their lives better. The SNP has to decide whether Scotland is Quebec or Catalonia. I suspect the majority of Scots want it to be Quebec, having a powerful devolved government with different aims but never the less part of a wider political nation, in our case the UK rather than Canada. If they go down the Catalonia route, we will have civil strife, legal battles and people like me will feel increasingly afraid of remaining in Scotland as we are made to feel more and more like unwelcome foreigners in our own country. Of course the irony is that if the SNP goes down the Catalonia route, almost certainly Spain would then veto an independent Scotland joining the EU. Orkney and Shetland would make clear they would not be part of an independent Scotland and instead choose to be the Channel Islands of the north. I can only hope that Boris will play the long game and that as with Quebec, the nationalists will overplay their hand. Right I am off back to the 18th century and my family trees and genealogical books where I feel most comfortable.
How did the Conservatives do in Ross, Skye and Lochaber?
And judging by my own youngsters these promises weren’t even believed. Take the free broadband one - the instant reaction was that such a government service would probably be “shit” and, when told that there would be no other choice, unprintable. I am not at all sure that Corbyn’s Labour really does have its finger on the pulse of the young metropolitan middle class, as opposed to a subset of it. They want what their parents were able to get. A party which gives the impression that it hates the concept of private property is not that in touch with the aspiring middle classes.
For all the talk about how young people are embracing socialism, they still love their Amazon, iPhone, Uber, Monzo, Just Eat, Spotify, Netflix etc. Those are products of a type of capitalism that Corbyn and McDonnell are utterly opposed to. The nationalised one-size-fits-all heavily-regulated state that Labour were proposing would likely fall out of favour with the young quite rapidly.
None of the parties should rush to a new direction. They can make working assumptions about broad components that will be in place at the next election, but those will need careful thought too.
The next election in Britain is likely to be fought at a time of continuing chronic economic underperformance, given the handicap Brexit will continue to place on Britain, Britain’s influence will have continued to vaporise, it having withdrawn from the first division of nations, and the country is likely to be still more divided, inward-looking and surly. The successful party is probably going to need to craft a positive message for people who have been let down yet again and who have lost all belief in promises. Getting that message is going to need careful thought.
Way too negative, and a bit bitter.
A new practical relationship with the EU will be forged and we will move on.
Could go either way. I tend toward being pessimistic but dear god there is a limit which when breached just looks silly.
The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
The result that really caused my jaw to drop in the small hours of Friday morning was Mansfield.
In Blair's big win in 1997, it had a Labour majority of 20,000. In 2005 it was still 11,000.
It was my personal WTF???? moment of 2017 when the Tories took it. I know Mansfield. The idea it could go Tory was off-the-scale bonkers. Yet it went blue with a majority of a little over 1,000.
So what was the reaction to the town of having a Tory MP for a couple of years. Any degree of buyers remorse? Might the hope he embodied turn to ash?
Nope.
There was a further swing to the Conservatives. Of an astonishing 15.5%. He now has a majority of 16,300. That is Tory-shire safe.
If this response proves anything like the response in those seats the Tories took on Thursday, Labour is dead in the water for several more Parliaments.
The Mansfield Tory MP has a reputation for being both assiduous and focussed on his seat. Unlike former Labour MPs, e.g. the one in 1987 who called all his voters twats for not coming out in 1984 (they still elected him, of course).
That should be a lesson for these new MPs. Most of these areas have been appallingly neglected by all governments. THis has encouraged a pre-existing parochialism that leads them to view London with suspicion. If they see their MPs fighting for local interests, I have little doubt they will back them again. If not...
The most interesting parallel for me for Mansfield is Ed Davey on Kingston / Surbiton in the 1990s.
255 majority when he won it. IIRC 16,000 next time around. In between he personally had contact with an estimated 35040k constituents.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
The trouble is there are two questions. Who should Labour best pick? Who might Labour members pick?
Our judgment tends to go on the former whereas our money needs to go on the latter.
It has just occurred to me that all of the four great offices of state are held by ethnic minorities - Circassian, Asiatic (two) and Jewish.
That is something I had not noticed, partly because I was more concerned with how disastrously unequal they are to their jobs. Javid is the best but he’s a pale shadow of Hammond and Osborne.
You are rather stretching the definition of ethnic minority but onto the politics.
It might be unfair to judge the Saj on the cynical nonsense of the budget that was never intended to be enacted. Still at least the Queen's horses got some exercise.
Longer term, his respected junior, Rishi Sunak, had a good campaign but is unlikely to be promoted straight to Number 11. I'd be astonished if Sunak is not given his own department next spring.
I absolutely hope not. The one who liked a nazi sign needs a good ticking off and possibly a short period of suspension.
Interesting case of the candidate who wanted nuisance tenants to live in tents and pick potatoes. I’ll take you down a street with mixed social housing for a canvass and put that suggestion to the residents. It won’t be short of support.
Much of the other stuff on that link can be filed under “these things are often quite true, but we would rather they weren’t and shouldn’t speak of it”.
Two from the four are put-up jobs I think - overegged to triangulate the Labour issue.
Lee Anderson was responding to complaints about Council Tenants from other Council Tenants, perhaps channelling "bluff northerner". Popular locally as a Labour Councillor. Probably needs some anti-plonking training in the new role. My new MP and quite surprised he made it after getting Cricked.
The 15 year old Spectator column one was addressed in 2008, but still written about in the present.
Sally-Ann Hart seems the serious one. Though not really convinced she 'liked' the "Ein Reich" *as* a Nazi slogan. If she did ... defenestration needed.
The Bassetlaw man's comments on foodbanks ... not sure.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
Agreed. I wasn’t impressed by Rayner at first but she has grown on me. One way and another she would be the smart choice.
And if she can impress a teacher while holding the Education brief, she’s clearly got something about her.
Didn't think too much of Rayner when she was on the box the other day. Think Starmer's an excellent No2. Bearing in mind that any Labour leader elected this Spring is going to have to be LotO until around October 2024, I'd go for Phillips. Combative, effective, no-nonsense Midlands lady. I think she and Starmer would be a very effective combination.
I know it really shouldn't be a factor - and I personally love the sing-song Brummy accent - but for many, they will never take her seriously because of it.
It's why we never had Prime Minister Jasper Carrott....
Not really sure why May stood again to be honest. She should have just retired from the scene. I hope that there is a shake up in the cabinet starting with Chancellor but I am not sure I see a place for her again.
@Alistair Best to be in a governing parties marginal I reckon though if you want attention for your constituency. My own seat has gone straight to safe seat for the Tories though lol
I was hoping that the Lib Dems might get a bit closer to the Tories in Woking for that very reason.
That said, I don't think governments worry too much about this sort of thing.
Some Tory seats now con/LD marginals, e.g. Wimbledon - Tory majority now 628 Esher & Walton - almost a Portillo moment with Raab - 20 thousand cut in majority.
We'll never know, but having an election in the midst of a month long strike on SWR might not have been optimal for the Tories in SW London.
Woking more marginal now for the Tories than Bassetlaw !
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
Great summary, broadly agree on most. Not sure why McDonnell is not being considered (110 on betfair), he seems head and shoulders above the other Corbynistas so if that part of the party is to retain control why not him rather than Pidcock, Burgon, Butler, RLB etc?
And judging by my own youngsters these promises weren’t even believed. Take the free broadband one - the instant reaction was that such a government service would probably be “shit” and, when told that there would be no other choice, unprintable. I am not at all sure that Corbyn’s Labour really does have its finger on the pulse of the young metropolitan middle class, as opposed to a subset of it. They want what their parents were able to get. A party which gives the impression that it hates the concept of private property is not that in touch with the aspiring middle classes.
For all the talk about how young people are embracing socialism, they still love their Amazon, iPhone, Uber, Monzo, Just Eat, Spotify, Netflix etc. Those are products of a type of capitalism that Corbyn and McDonnell are utterly opposed to. The nationalised one-size-fits-all heavily-regulated state that Labour were proposing would likely fall out of favour with the young quite rapidly.
A discussion group to which I belong is considering topics for the next few months. Among them is "Is Marx dead? Do we need a new philosophy for the 21st Century?"
Looking at the north-east - yesterday has produced a massive sea change. All the Sunderland seats are now marginal and outside Newcastle much of the region Tory or massively weakened. It is starting to resemble most othe parts of the UK for the first time ever I think.
The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
The result that really caused my jaw to drop in the small hours of Friday morning was Mansfield.
In Blair's big win in 1997, it had a Labour majority of 20,000. In 2005 it was still 11,000.
It was my personal WTF???? moment of 2017 when the Tories took it. I know Mansfield. The idea it could go Tory was off-the-scale bonkers. Yet it went blue with a majority of a little over 1,000.
So what was the reaction to the town of having a Tory MP for a couple of years. Any degree of buyers remorse? Might the hope he embodied turn to ash?
Nope.
There was a further swing to the Conservatives. Of an astonishing 15.5%. He now has a majority of 16,300. That is Tory-shire safe.
If this response proves anything like the response in those seats the Tories took on Thursday, Labour is dead in the water for several more Parliaments.
The Mansfield Tory MP has a reputation for being both assiduous and focussed on his seat. Unlike former Labour MPs, e.g. the one in 1987 who called all his voters twats for not coming out in 1984 (they still elected him, of course).
That should be a lesson for these new MPs. Most of these areas have been appallingly neglected by all governments. THis has encouraged a pre-existing parochialism that leads them to view London with suspicion. If they see their MPs fighting for local interests, I have little doubt they will back them again. If not...
The most interesting parallel for me for Mansfield is Ed Davey on Kingston / Surbiton in the 1990s.
255 majority when he won it. IIRC 16,000 next time around. In between he personally had contact with an estimated 35040k constituents.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
It has just occurred to me that all of the four great offices of state are held by ethnic minorities - Circassian, Asiatic (two) and Jewish.
That is something I had not noticed, partly because I was more concerned with how disastrously unequal they are to their jobs. Javid is the best but he’s a pale shadow of Hammond and Osborne.
You are rather stretching the definition of ethnic minority but onto the politics.
It might be unfair to judge the Saj on the cynical nonsense of the budget that was never intended to be enacted. Still at least the Queen's horses got some exercise.
Longer term, his respected junior, Rishi Sunak, had a good campaign but is unlikely to be promoted straight to Number 11. I'd be astonished if Sunak is not given his own department next spring.
Well, I suppose we could argue a group of 4 billion people is actually an ethnic majority.
Javid didn’t exactly pull up trees at the Home Office, either. However, like May herself, he survived it, and that may be a positive sign.
Now listening to Corbyn’s speech. What did people see in him?
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
Agreed. I wasn’t impressed by Rayner at first but she has grown on me. One way and another she would be the smart choice.
And if she can impress a teacher while holding the Education brief, she’s clearly got something about her.
Didn't think too much of Rayner when she was on the box the other day. Think Starmer's an excellent No2. Bearing in mind that any Labour leader elected this Spring is going to have to be LotO until around October 2024, I'd go for Phillips. Combative, effective, no-nonsense Midlands lady. I think she and Starmer would be a very effective combination.
I know it really shouldn't be a factor - and I personally love the sing-song Brummy accent - but for many, they will never take her seriously because of it.
It's why we never had Prime Minister Jasper Carrott....
They will try to destroy Philips as the destroyed Swinson, too mummy wrong hair do wrong clothes, too emotional and wrong accent.
Somewhat unusually I disagree fairly fundamentally with this piece. The lessons I think that we learned from the last incompetent Parliament are:
1. Breaking into the existing oligopoly of parties is incredibly difficult. The Tiggers were annihilated and the Brexit Party did no better. Those that went out on their own are all now ex-MP. Parliament is the sort of closed shop that your most militant shop steward can only dream of.
2. The weakness and incompetence of Labour led to their increasing collapse in Scotland where there is the sort of centre left alternative that does not exist in England. There may be no way back there now.
3. The Lib Dems made several strategic mistakes but their biggest by far was not going for Labour's throat when they were so vulnerable. If they want to play a major role in our governance, as opposed to a minor role in our politics, they need to replace Labour in the same way as the SNP have. They will almost certainly never get a better chance.
The sad conclusion I have come to, which I think nearly all politicians will now share, is that breaking away from the existing structures is fatal. Far better to hang in there and seek to change the mood inside the party.
There is huge anger in Labour about what the Corbynists did to their party, the disgusting moral failings, the delusional economics and, most fundamentally, losing. Whether that anger can be marshaled into a regaining of the party by the moderates remains to be seen but even if they fail the institutional strength of the oligopoly protects Labour from too much harm.
From a distance it seems to me that throughout the SNP's rise to replace Labour, they went out of their way to stay anti-Tory?
More from the time Nicola took charge. Salmond had his first successes in Tartan Tory seats and always tried to keep them on board. Nicola made the strategic move to replace Labour on the centre left and gain control of the central belt, even if it did cost a few seats in the borders and the NE. It was a brilliant move and has made the SNP as dominant in Scotland as the old SLP ever were.
But was it done by attacking Labour, or proving themselves better at attacking the Tories?
I think STV for local government played a key role in allowing the SNP to extend its reach, build representation across the country and break Labour's FPTP stranglehold.
The biggest mistake Clegg made was not asking for STV in E&W local government in place of his dumb AV referendum.
The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
The result that really caused my jaw to drop in the small hours of Friday morning was Mansfield.
In Blair's big win in 1997, it had a Labour majority of 20,000. In 2005 it was still 11,000.
It was my personal WTF???? moment of 2017 when the Tories took it. I know Mansfield. The idea it could go Tory was off-the-scale bonkers. Yet it went blue with a majority of a little over 1,000.
So what was the reaction to the town of having a Tory MP for a couple of years. Any degree of buyers remorse? Might the hope he embodied turn to ash?
Nope.
There was a further swing to the Conservatives. Of an astonishing 15.5%. He now has a majority of 16,300. That is Tory-shire safe.
If this response proves anything like the response in those seats the Tories took on Thursday, Labour is dead in the water for several more Parliaments.
The Mansfield Tory MP has a reputation for being both assiduous and focussed on his seat. Unlike former Labour MPs, e.g. the one in 1987 who called all his voters twats for not coming out in 1984 (they still elected him, of course).
That should be a lesson for these new MPs. Most of these areas have been appallingly neglected by all governments. THis has encouraged a pre-existing parochialism that leads them to view London with suspicion. If they see their MPs fighting for local interests, I have little doubt they will back them again. If not...
The most interesting parallel for me for Mansfield is Ed Davey on Kingston / Surbiton in the 1990s.
255 majority when he won it. IIRC 16,000 next time around. In between he personally had contact with an estimated 35040k constituents.
Contacted 35040k constituents? That's assiduous! Or else you've got Diane Abbot running those estimates....
35,040,000 in 5 years = 7,008,000 per 1 year = 134,769 per week = 19,253 per day = 802 per hour = 13 per minute = about 1 every five seconds
The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
And judging by my own youngsters these promises weren’t even believed. Take the free broadband one - the instant reaction was that such a government service would probably be “shit” and, when told that there would be no other choice, unprintable. I am not at all sure that Corbyn’s Labour really does have its finger on the pulse of the young metropolitan middle class, as opposed to a subset of it. They want what their parents were able to get. A party which gives the impression that it hates the concept of private property is not that in touch with the aspiring middle classes.
Not really sure why May stood again to be honest. She should have just retired from the scene. I hope that there is a shake up in the cabinet starting with Chancellor but I am not sure I see a place for her again.
I like senior back benchers in the commons, it makes a real difference and is a small counter weight against the rule of the party leaders and whips. We have lost many talented senior MPs so quite happy she is back.
Great summary, broadly agree on most. Not sure why McDonnell is not being considered (110 on betfair), he seems head and shoulders above the other Corbynistas so if that part of the party is to retain control why not him rather than Pidcock, Burgon, Butler, RLB etc?
1) He’s in his late 60s.
2) He has a heart condition
3) He has a back story that makes Corbyn look a model of probity
4) He’s a nasty bully whom almost everyone in Labour hates (unlike Corbyn, it should be noted)
Against that
5) He’s brighter than every other member of the Shadow Cabinet put together.
A good magnanimous move by Boris would be to bring Theresa May back into cabinet.
Maybe DEFRA would be good.
Northern Ireland.
With due deference to Ms. May, NI deserves competence, toughness and endurance. Qualities which even her admirers would hesitate to ascribe to her.
That is completely unfair. She showed extraordinary toughness and endurance as Home Secretary and PM. If anything, too much so.
Good point: I withdraw "endurance". But "toughness"? She did not bend people to her will: - quite the opposite, in fact. Would you take "effectiveness" as a substitute?
79% of Tory voters would still have voted for the party even had Brexit not been an issue, so do not assume either the Tories new voter base is going to unravel significantly any time soon.
58% of Brexit Party voters by contrast only voted for them due to the Brexit issue
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Not really sure why May stood again to be honest. She should have just retired from the scene. I hope that there is a shake up in the cabinet starting with Chancellor but I am not sure I see a place for her again.
She’ll be in the Commons for years yet I think. I suspect she actually really enjoys being a constituency MP and thinks it’s her calling.
As for a return to frontline politics, I think her time has been and gone and she herself wouldn’t want it.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
The result that really caused my jaw to drop in the small hours of Friday morning was Mansfield.
In Blair's big win in 1997, it had a Labour majority of 20,000. In 2005 it was still 11,000.
It was my personal WTF???? moment of 2017 when the Tories took it. I know Mansfield. The idea it could go Tory was off-the-scale bonkers. Yet it went blue with a majority of a little over 1,000.
So what was the reaction to the town of having a Tory MP for a couple of years. Any degree of buyers remorse? Might the hope he embodied turn to ash?
Nope.
There was a further swing to the Conservatives. Of an astonishing 15.5%. He now has a majority of 16,300. That is Tory-shire safe.
If this response proves anything like the response in those seats the Tories took on Thursday, Labour is dead in the water for several more Parliaments.
The Mansfield Tory MP has a reputation for being both assiduous and focussed on his seat. Unlike former Labour MPs, e.g. the one in 1987 who called all his voters twats for not coming out in 1984 (they still elected him, of course).
That should be a lesson for these new MPs. Most of these areas have been appallingly neglected by all governments. THis has encouraged a pre-existing parochialism that leads them to view London with suspicion. If they see their MPs fighting for local interests, I have little doubt they will back them again. If not...
The most interesting parallel for me for Mansfield is Ed Davey on Kingston / Surbiton in the 1990s.
255 majority when he won it. IIRC 16,000 next time around. In between he personally had contact with an estimated 35040k constituents.
Contacted 35040k constituents? That's assiduous! Or else you've got Diane Abbot running those estimates....
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
Agreed. I wasn’t impressed by Rayner at first but she has grown on me. One way and another she would be the smart choice.
And if she can impress a teacher while holding the Education brief, she’s clearly got something about her.
Didn't think too much of Rayner when she was on the box the other day. Think Starmer's an excellent No2. Bearing in mind that any Labour leader elected this Spring is going to have to be LotO until around October 2024, I'd go for Phillips. Combative, effective, no-nonsense Midlands lady. I think she and Starmer would be a very effective combination.
I know it really shouldn't be a factor - and I personally love the sing-song Brummy accent - but for many, they will never take her seriously because of it.
It's why we never had Prime Minister Jasper Carrott....
Any Eton old boys in the Labour party? Seems to be to the publics taste.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
Great summary, broadly agree on most. Not sure why McDonnell is not being considered (110 on betfair), he seems head and shoulders above the other Corbynistas so if that part of the party is to retain control why not him rather than Pidcock, Burgon, Butler, RLB etc?
I’m not sure McDonnell wants it. He’s also a very shrewd player and I think he knows he is inextricably linked with the Corbyn project and would struggle on that basis (in terms of the electorate, not the membership who probably would vote for him!)
A good magnanimous move by Boris would be to bring Theresa May back into cabinet.
Maybe DEFRA would be good.
Northern Ireland.
With due deference to Ms. May, NI deserves competence, toughness and endurance. Qualities which even her admirers would hesitate to ascribe to her.
That is completely unfair. She showed extraordinary toughness and endurance as Home Secretary and PM. If anything, too much so.
Good point: I withdraw "endurance". But "toughness"? She did not bend people to her will: - quite the opposite, in fact. Would you take "effectiveness" as a substitute?
No, I’ll go with ‘toughness.’ She was somebody who stood firm and worked to push things through. She got a deal with the EU which would have actually been a good scenario for the country. It is not her fault her backbenchers and supporters turned out to be crazier than we realised. It was very largely her fault that that mattered because she threw away an unloseable election, so I will give you competence.
It doesn't matter what Labour do next. Whomever is the next leader won't be the person able to contest Downing Street, that's the one after the next one.
I have this calming sense of optimism this morning for what a Johnson government with a big majority can deliver for this country.
BTW my stepson says the story of the child on the floor in A and E was true... was it? I thought it had been found to be fake???
It was true. You must have been caught out by fake news, Russian trolls, or CCHQ muddying the waters. As an aside, the child's mother complained to OFCOM, or rather CCHQ did so on her behalf, in an attempt to suppress the story.
Leeds A&E -- two false stories -- an analysis of how they spread on social media, with the aid of mainstream reporters including from the Sun, Telegraph and Mail, as well as Guido.
Fake news 1: pictures of an ill boy on the floor had themselves been faked Fake news 2: an aide to Health Secretary Matt Hancock was punched by a Labour mob
Crap. Journalists have no right to tell the politicians how to campaign nor should television be political players in the campaign either. They should report the news impartially and let the voters decide.
As a voter I have no opportunity to meet PM candidates personally, I rely on journalists to ask them tough questions and subject them to scrutiny so I can make an informed choice. The other leaders understood that and did the interview. It speaks poorly of Johnson that he ducked it, and poorly of his supporters that they think it's ok.
You can read what they say, listen to their speeches... you don't need a journalist loking for cheap headlines or with their own agendas to do democracy for you. If you don't like the voters as you imply above because of it who the f*** cares.
I wasn't talking about the voters, I was talking about people like you. I have a lot of respect for the voters, which is why I think they should have the opportunity to make an informed choice. You think you are going to be able to do that by listening to a load of vacuous soundbites and untruths? From Johnson's speeches I learnt that his solution to all problems was to "get Brexit done", I would have liked some more detail than that. Next election nobody will do these interviews, and as a result whoever wins will have been vetted less and is more likely to make damaging mistakes. What Johnson has done is damaging to good governance in this country, in all honesty I think your attitude is contemptible.
The problem for Labour is that having lost its working class base, its new base is a young, metropolitan middle class. They can be kept on side by promises of annulling student debt, rent controls etc. but such measures are impossibly expensive and offer nothing to the other voters they need to attract.
The result that really caused my jaw to drop in the small hours of Friday morning was Mansfield.
In Blair's big win in 1997, it had a Labour majority of 20,000. In 2005 it was still 11,000.
It was my personal WTF???? moment of 2017 when the Tories took it. I know Mansfield. The idea it could go Tory was off-the-scale bonkers. Yet it went blue with a majority of a little over 1,000.
So what was the reaction to the town of having a Tory MP for a couple of years. Any degree of buyers remorse? Might the hope he embodied turn to ash?
Nope.
There was a further swing to the Conservatives. Of an astonishing 15.5%. He now has a majority of 16,300. That is Tory-shire safe.
If this response proves anything like the response in those seats the Tories took on Thursday, Labour is dead in the water for several more Parliaments.
I think that there is reflection to do perhaps. My impressions as an occasional LD voter in the past.
I am in the North end of Ashfield, and in most of my local seats the story is that the Labour vote fell by 15-25% and went elsewhere, rather than mainly upward growth in the Tories. In terms of totals, in Ashfield it went to Zadrozny mainly - Tory vote down 2.4%. In Bolsover it went to BXP and Tory. In Mansfield where the MP is a community focused Tory, who I think has done a Davey Kingston 1992-1997, it went to him (+17%).
The drivers were Brexit and especially revulsion for Corbyn, which I saw everywhere just by asking for opinions. He was specifically disowned by Lab canvassers even. Suspect here it was his useful-idiot-for-terrorists record, and incredulity at his fantasy economics, rather than antisemitism. It is a military area, and many have family or friends or schoolfriends who have been IRA targets or victims; the history of Jezza supping with the IRA in Parliament does not encourage.
I think Swinson's inexperience was a problem. Being polite, a key traditional Lib Dem skill was to be able to say entirely different things to different people, by change of emphasis. If the fundamentalist remainer position adopted by Farron was partly tactical, Swinson baked that into a dogma and went out of her way to pour scorn and abuse on those who took a different view.
How on earth was she allowed to do a Chris Patten 1992 (tbf she had a bigger majority before but you know the SNP)?
Go back and read her leadership acceptance and conference speeches. The hapless misunderstanding of the other is visible there under the honeyed inclusive claims.
In my view the effect of that is that you have ploughed salt into your future target fields for growing new voters across half the country; not clever and you are going to have to think carefully where you sew.
The only Lib Dem Councillors left standing within 10 miles and more of my desk are those that rebranded themselves Ashfield Independents. The rest have gone; all of them. I think the nearest (look at a map) are Beeston, Newark, Tupton, and I think Clowne....
That is a very good post.
I think you’re entirely right in your point about emphasis (which is not necessarily dishonesty, as you imply). Even the revoke policy could have been fine, had she admitted it could only happen with an overwhelming electoral mandate (ie an outright parliamentary majority) which the party was extremely unlikely to get. It might then have served its intended signalling purpose without any negative effects.
Jo Swinson needed to be equally circumspect on the likelihood of her being PM.
Of course. One thing Boris understands, arrogant shit that he might be, is the public value of self-deprecation.
It doesn't matter what Labour do next. Whomever is the next leader won't be the person able to contest Downing Street, that's the one after the next one.
I have this calming sense of optimism this morning for what a Johnson government with a big majority can deliver for this country.
The Lib Dems should give Berger Wimbledon next time round. I think it's a nailed on gain next time and she'd be a good MP for them in the commons. Finchley may well stay Tory if a Corbynista is in charge of Labour as seems likely.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
Minor correction with the election results as they're being presented by the BBC, Sky, etc. The Brexit Party polled 2,168 votes in Middlesbrough, not 216 votes as most of them are reporting.
It has just occurred to me that all of the four great offices of state are held by ethnic minorities - Circassian, Asiatic (two) and Jewish.
That is something I had not noticed, partly because I was more concerned with how disastrously unequal they are to their jobs. Javid is the best but he’s a pale shadow of Hammond and Osborne.
You are rather stretching the definition of ethnic minority but onto the politics.
It might be unfair to judge the Saj on the cynical nonsense of the budget that was never intended to be enacted. Still at least the Queen's horses got some exercise.
Longer term, his respected junior, Rishi Sunak, had a good campaign but is unlikely to be promoted straight to Number 11. I'd be astonished if Sunak is not given his own department next spring.
Javid is over-promoted. Always looks like a rabbit caught in the headlights. Sunak is a personality free zone, with all the charisma of the speaking clock.
Economic policy is going to be important. The Tories need someone who can really make the case for what their economic policy turns out to be, really argue for it - and do so convincingly. Neither Javid nor Sunak appear to have that ability.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
S Kinnock?
Really can’t see it if I’m honest. Not sure he’s ever made any leadership manoeverings either.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
The Liberal Democrats under Davey are not Trudeau or Macron.
Hold on. Sod Labour. When is the new Cabinet announced? Surely that will be the next big political event, unless I've missed Boris saying he will carry on with the old one.
Reportedly minor tweaks (lower ranks) ahead of Brexit, big re-shuffle to follow.
To follow Brexit eg February or follow Brexit eg post trade deal?
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
Great summary, broadly agree on most. Not sure why McDonnell is not being considered (110 on betfair), he seems head and shoulders above the other Corbynistas so if that part of the party is to retain control why not him rather than Pidcock, Burgon, Butler, RLB etc?
I’m not sure McDonnell wants it. He’s also a very shrewd player and I think he knows he is inextricably linked with the Corbyn project and would struggle on that basis (in terms of the electorate, not the membership who probably would vote for him!)
He’s more of a Mandy figure.
AIUI the Corbynistas first aim is to control the Labour party not to win a GE. I think McDonnell is far better placed to do that than RLB, Butler, Burgon or Pidcock. I agree it would be sacrificing Labours GE hopes but do they care about that?
It doesn't matter what Labour do next. Whomever is the next leader won't be the person able to contest Downing Street, that's the one after the next one.
I have this calming sense of optimism this morning for what a Johnson government with a big majority can deliver for this country.
I think we have lived in this crazy post-referendum haze for so long we’ve forgotten what it’s like to have a stable government with a strong majority just getting on and doing ‘stuff’.
For me personally that’s a nice change, albeit that I wish it wasn’t Boris at the helm.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
Yes we shouldn’t fall into a trap of thinking Labour can’t win next time.
It’s very very very difficult for them to win outright (but not impossible). It’s less of a stretch to see a Lab-SNP pact.
The Labour Party needs to change, but not panic. With 32%, 200 seats and critically no challenger on the left in England, it can recover and win.
It needs a strategy that repairs damage but also exploits new opportunities. These days there are no safe seats. The Tory underbelly is soft. The right leader could have a lot of fun there.
True, but that leader will need to be very able, clever and lucky. Let's hope some of them have hidden depths.
Great summary, broadly agree on most. Not sure why McDonnell is not being considered (110 on betfair), he seems head and shoulders above the other Corbynistas so if that part of the party is to retain control why not him rather than Pidcock, Burgon, Butler, RLB etc?
1) He’s in his late 60s.
2) He has a heart condition
3) He has a back story that makes Corbyn look a model of probity
4) He’s a nasty bully whom almost everyone in Labour hates (unlike Corbyn, it should be noted)
Against that
5) He’s brighter than every other member of the Shadow Cabinet put together.
He’s also part of the reason Labour lost.
S. Kinnock is dim. Dawn Butler is dim also - what’s been her big contribution to Labour thinking? Oh yes - wailing about the wickedness of Empire. That’s really going to get the voters flocking to Labour.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
If that’s the criteria, it should be the youngest female Labour MP...
Incidentally, another factor to ponder is that 104 of Labour’s 202 MPs are female - for the first time, they make up more than half a major party. So that makes it even more likely there will be an all-female shortlist, simply because the talent pool of men is so small.
Hold on. Sod Labour. When is the new Cabinet announced? Surely that will be the next big political event, unless I've missed Boris saying he will carry on with the old one.
Reportedly minor tweaks (lower ranks) ahead of Brexit, big re-shuffle to follow.
To follow Brexit eg February or follow Brexit eg post trade deal?
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
If that’s the criteria, it should be the youngest female Labour MP...
Incidentally, another factor to ponder is that 104 of Labour’s 202 MPs are female - for the first time, they make up more than half a major party. So that makes it even more likely there will be an all-female shortlist, simply because the talent pool of men is so small.
Hold on. Sod Labour. When is the new Cabinet announced? Surely that will be the next big political event, unless I've missed Boris saying he will carry on with the old one.
Reportedly minor tweaks (lower ranks) ahead of Brexit, big re-shuffle to follow.
To follow Brexit eg February or follow Brexit eg post trade deal?
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
If that’s the criteria, it should be the youngest female Labour MP...
Incidentally, another factor to ponder is that 104 of Labour’s 202 MPs are female - for the first time, they make up more than half a major party. So that makes it even more likely there will be an all-female shortlist, simply because the talent pool of men is so small.
As a rule of thumb UK journalists writing about the US are far better at it than US journalists writing about the UK. We simply pay far more attention to their politics specifically, and country generally, than they do to ours.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
Boris heads a fourth term Tory government that at the time of the 2024 election will have been in power for 14 years (one more than NuLab under Blair and Brown. Let that sink in).
He has, to quote Sion Simon (LOL) ”shatter(ed) the glass paradigm of cyclical politics” for now but by the time 2024 rolls around there is likely to be some sense of the pendulum swinging back which will help a new Labour leader. Enough to win? Not sure about that. But its worth remembering.
Comments
The feeling from talking to other Labour supporting friends is anger directed at Corbyn . Ignore the guff spouted on pro Corbyn twitter feeds .
It was almost a miracle Labour polled 32% . And I’m sick of hearing it was just down to Brexit.
The Brexit fudge was the least damaging policy possible given the coalition of voters it needed to keep onside , the main problem was Corbyn.
Labour gifted the election to Johnson . And need to wake up.
Either they find someone who is electable or they will be out of power for a very long time to come .
What now?
I am very encouraged by the fact that Boris is making huge overtures to the new blue working class voters in the north. It was interesting to hear voter after voter pointing out yesterday that they, their parents and their grandparents had always voted Labour and in fact in return the Labour party had never done anything for them. I do hope Boris now piles money into regeneration of these towns and cities which have suffered at the expense of making London richer and richer.
As for Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon ran a successful campaign and was rightly rewarded for that. The fact that half the SCon MPs survived and the SCons are now indeed the alternative to the SNP means we will have endless wrangling while in England and Wales people will knuckle down to getting on with the things in life which make their lives better. The SNP has to decide whether Scotland is Quebec or Catalonia. I suspect the majority of Scots want it to be Quebec, having a powerful devolved government with different aims but never the less part of a wider political nation, in our case the UK rather than Canada. If they go down the Catalonia route, we will have civil strife, legal battles and people like me will feel increasingly afraid of remaining in Scotland as we are made to feel more and more like unwelcome foreigners in our own country. Of course the irony is that if the SNP goes down the Catalonia route, almost certainly Spain would then veto an independent Scotland joining the EU. Orkney and Shetland would make clear they would not be part of an independent Scotland and instead choose to be the Channel Islands of the north. I can only hope that Boris will play the long game and that as with Quebec, the nationalists will overplay their hand. Right I am off back to the 18th century and my family trees and genealogical books where I feel most comfortable.
I think you’re entirely right in your point about emphasis (which is not necessarily dishonesty, as you imply).
Even the revoke policy could have been fine, had she admitted it could only happen with an overwhelming electoral mandate (ie an outright parliamentary majority) which the party was extremely unlikely to get. It might then have served its intended signalling purpose without any negative effects.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
You don't refute allegations you are a red Tory by defecting to the LibDems. Nor do you refute antisemitic abuse by decamping to a more Jewish constituency as if you really do believe Jews vote robotically for other Jews. That is the sort of racist nonsense we are fighting.
And if she can impress a teacher while holding the Education brief, she’s clearly got something about her.
Wimbledon - Tory majority now 628
Esher & Walton - almost a Portillo moment with Raab - 20 thousand cut in majority.
255 majority when he won it. IIRC 16,000 next time around. In between he personally had contact with an estimated 35040k constituents.
That is something I had not noticed, partly because I was more concerned with how disastrously unequal they are to their jobs. Javid is the best but he’s a pale shadow of Hammond and Osborne.
Competence, perhaps rather less so.
"The most interesting parallel for me for Mansfield is Ed Davey on Kingston / Surbiton in the 1990s.
255 majority when he won it. IIRC 16,000 next time around. In between he personally had contact with an estimated 35040k constituents.(?)"
And that of course is Traditional LD, as I recall MarqueeMark posting about Kevin Foster a few weeks ago.
Inoccent face.
35040k constituents ... 35,040,000 constituents ... in Kingston & Surbiton alone.
That is, three quarters of the entire UK electorate!
Our judgment tends to go on the former whereas our money needs to go on the latter.
It might be unfair to judge the Saj on the cynical nonsense of the budget that was never intended to be enacted. Still at least the Queen's horses got some exercise.
Longer term, his respected junior, Rishi Sunak, had a good campaign but is unlikely to be promoted straight to Number 11. I'd be astonished if Sunak is not given his own department next spring.
Lee Anderson was responding to complaints about Council Tenants from other Council Tenants, perhaps channelling "bluff northerner". Popular locally as a Labour Councillor. Probably needs some anti-plonking training in the new role. My new MP and quite surprised he made it after getting Cricked.
The 15 year old Spectator column one was addressed in 2008, but still written about in the present.
Sally-Ann Hart seems the serious one. Though not really convinced she 'liked' the "Ein Reich" *as* a Nazi slogan. If she did ... defenestration needed.
The Bassetlaw man's comments on foodbanks ... not sure.
It's why we never had Prime Minister Jasper Carrott....
The SLab 'surge' of 2017 unwound direct to SNP. Left wing Yes voters came 'home'
Javid didn’t exactly pull up trees at the Home Office, either. However, like May herself, he survived it, and that may be a positive sign.
Now listening to Corbyn’s speech. What did people see in him?
I think STV for local government played a key role in allowing the SNP to extend its reach, build representation across the country and break Labour's FPTP stranglehold.
The biggest mistake Clegg made was not asking for STV in E&W local government in place of his dumb AV referendum.
= 7,008,000 per 1 year
= 134,769 per week
= 19,253 per day
= 802 per hour
= 13 per minute
= about 1 every five seconds
Quick question: when did he poo?
Congratulations @Quincel for his big win
She might not win but she looks the inevitable candidate of the wing of the party that currently is in control.
Disclosure: I backed her at odds of between 300 and 400 on Betfair.
2) He has a heart condition
3) He has a back story that makes Corbyn look a model of probity
4) He’s a nasty bully whom almost everyone in Labour hates (unlike Corbyn, it should be noted)
Against that
5) He’s brighter than every other member of the Shadow Cabinet put together.
58% of Brexit Party voters by contrast only voted for them due to the Brexit issue
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1205481150988333057?s=20
As for a return to frontline politics, I think her time has been and gone and she herself wouldn’t want it.
35 to 40k.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1205770444965654528?s=20
He’s more of a Mandy figure.
I have this calming sense of optimism this morning for what a Johnson government with a big majority can deliver for this country.
Finchley may well stay Tory if a Corbynista is in charge of Labour as seems likely.
https://www.middlesbrough.gov.uk/elections/election-results/2019-member-parliament-middlesbrough
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000819
https://election.news.sky.com/general-election-results-27/middlesbrough-24673
https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2019-12-12/results-general-election-2019-in-the-tyne-tees-region/
Economic policy is going to be important. The Tories need someone who can really make the case for what their economic policy turns out to be, really argue for it - and do so convincingly. Neither Javid nor Sunak appear to have that ability.
2) The centre right queued quietly all Thursday just in case these people are serious.
For me personally that’s a nice change, albeit that I wish it wasn’t Boris at the helm.
It’s very very very difficult for them to win outright (but not impossible). It’s less of a stretch to see a Lab-SNP pact.
Vulnerable to pendants.
S. Kinnock is dim. Dawn Butler is dim also - what’s been her big contribution to Labour thinking? Oh yes - wailing about the wickedness of Empire. That’s really going to get the voters flocking to Labour.
Incidentally, another factor to ponder is that 104 of Labour’s 202 MPs are female - for the first time, they make up more than half a major party. So that makes it even more likely there will be an all-female shortlist, simply because the talent pool of men is so small.
According to reports, February.
https://twitter.com/LukewSavage/status/1205534194727870465?s=20
Ed Davey (Kingston & Surbiton)
Alistair Carmichael (Orkney & Shetland)
Tim Farron (Westmorland & Lonsdale)
He has, to quote Sion Simon (LOL) ”shatter(ed) the glass paradigm of cyclical politics” for now but by the time 2024 rolls around there is likely to be some sense of the pendulum swinging back which will help a new Labour leader. Enough to win? Not sure about that. But its worth remembering.
‘Thank you for turning out in this December election, which we didn’t want to call...’
I suppose technically he wanted an October election, but still, really...