As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
If that’s the criteria, it should be the youngest female Labour MP...
Incidentally, another factor to ponder is that 104 of Labour’s 202 MPs are female - for the first time, they make up more than half a major party. So that makes it even more likely there will be an all-female shortlist, simply because the talent pool of men is so small.
Incidentally, the LibDems also now exceed 50%
In 2015 there we no female LD MPs amongst the 8 elected. Now it's 7 out of 11 as you say.
Just 3 LD MPs survive from the coalition years of 2010 to 2015:
Ed Davey (Kingston & Surbiton) Alistair Carmichael (Orkney & Shetland) Tim Farron (Westmorland & Lonsdale)
I follow Tim on Facebook, his campaign was "It's got to be Tim" and had zero emphasis on EU matters. His personal vote is in the region of Lamb's I reckon - who clearly had a huge personal vote. Moving on from the issue and out of Europe should help the LDs in places like Westmorland.
BTW my stepson says the story of the child on the floor in A and E was true... was it? I thought it had been found to be fake???
It was true. You must have been caught out by fake news, Russian trolls, or CCHQ muddying the waters. As an aside, the child's mother complained to OFCOM, or rather CCHQ did so on her behalf, in an attempt to suppress the story.
Leeds A&E -- two false stories -- an analysis of how they spread on social media, with the aid of mainstream reporters including from the Sun, Telegraph and Mail, as well as Guido.
Fake news 1: pictures of an ill boy on the floor had themselves been faked Fake news 2: an aide to Health Secretary Matt Hancock was punched by a Labour mob
Crap. Journalists have no right to tell the politicians how to campaign nor should television be political players in the campaign either. They should report the news impartially and let the voters decide.
As a voter I have no opportunity to meet PM candidates personally, I rely on journalists to ask them tough questions and subject them to scrutiny so I can make an informed choice. The other leaders understood that and did the interview. It speaks poorly of Johnson that he ducked it, and poorly of his supporters that they think it's ok.
You can read what they say, listen to their speeches... you don't need a journalist loking for cheap headlines or with their own agendas to do democracy for you. If you don't like the voters as you imply above because of it who the f*** cares.
I.
Whatever. Journalists nowadays all have agendas and fake news is everywhere as a result. You wanted Johnsin burned on TV and think quite wrongly that would have led to a great victory for someone else. The voters are saying they don't want to be told how to think by a bubble in Westminster. They probably admired Johnson for his stance on the media games. There will be a lot less of this nonsense next time and hopefully a shorter campaign. People don't like constant politics. they have lives.
I do not bet, unless you count the stockmarkets. Yesterday produced a very healthy 5 figure gain. I am heavy in FTSE 250 and UK small Cos, and took the risk to stay fully invested, could have gone the other way of course.
Great summary, broadly agree on most. Not sure why McDonnell is not being considered (110 on betfair), he seems head and shoulders above the other Corbynistas so if that part of the party is to retain control why not him rather than Pidcock, Burgon, Butler, RLB etc?
1) He’s in his late 60s.
2) He has a heart condition
3) He has a back story that makes Corbyn look a model of probity
4) He’s a nasty bully whom almost everyone in Labour hates (unlike Corbyn, it should be noted)
Against that
5) He’s brighter than every other member of the Shadow Cabinet put together.
He’s also part of the reason Labour lost.
S. Kinnock is dim. Dawn Butler is dim also - what’s been her big contribution to Labour thinking? Oh yes - wailing about the wickedness of Empire. That’s really going to get the voters flocking to Labour.
There are a lot of thickies!
Only McD, Thornberry and Starmer seem smart enough in the shadow cabinet
The Labour Party needs to change, but not panic. With 32%, 200 seats and critically no challenger on the left in England, it can recover and win.
It needs a strategy that repairs damage but also exploits new opportunities. These days there are no safe seats. The Tory underbelly is soft. The right leader could have a lot of fun there.
True, but that leader will need to be very able, clever and lucky. Let's hope some of them have hidden depths.
To win an overall majority Labour need an extra 123 seats. Number 124 on the Labour attack list is South Ribble, with a Tory majority of 11199. 124 on the Tory defence list is Woking. I think Labour panic would be an entirely rational reaction. This are a party who put up Richard Burgon as a front bench spokesman when he ought to be reading the news on North Korean Television.
Not really sure why May stood again to be honest. She should have just retired from the scene. I hope that there is a shake up in the cabinet starting with Chancellor but I am not sure I see a place for her again.
She likes being an MP, even a backbench one? Clarke aside most of the really long serving mps have been backbench types (Corbyn did fit this and showed why that was a better idea)
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
Who ever they get, it will take a miracle worker to overturn that majority in one term.
Hold on. Sod Labour. When is the new Cabinet announced? Surely that will be the next big political event, unless I've missed Boris saying he will carry on with the old one.
Reportedly minor tweaks (lower ranks) ahead of Brexit, big re-shuffle to follow.
To follow Brexit eg February or follow Brexit eg post trade deal?
Hold on. Sod Labour. When is the new Cabinet announced? Surely that will be the next big political event, unless I've missed Boris saying he will carry on with the old one.
Reportedly minor tweaks (lower ranks) ahead of Brexit, big re-shuffle to follow.
To follow Brexit eg February or follow Brexit eg post trade deal?
Our new Totnes MP, Anthony Mangnall, was selected for the seat five months ago. In that time, he has knocked on 27,000 of the 36,000 front doors in the constituency. Given it covers 250 sq. miles and there are many, many single houses down lanes and hamlets of 3 or 4 houses, that was a hell of an effort. His reward was getting more votes than Sarah Wollaston got for the Tories in 2017.
All of these Tories taking a seat from Labour or the LibDems this year would be well advised to forget any form of career advancement for now - just dig in and work the seat like a demon. There are several Tory MPs out there who can give them tips on what to do. Ben Bradley (majority 16k) against Labour and Kevin Foster (majority 18k) againt the LibDems show what you can achieve when you focus on your constituency. (Torbay was an interesting control experment in how to lose a seat - in the 90's Rupert Allason barely set foot in the place, with the inevitable loss to the LibDems.)
Minor correction with the election results as they're being presented by the BBC, Sky, etc. The Brexit Party polled 2,168 votes in Middlesbrough, not 216 votes as most of them are reporting.
And watching the Remain establishment quietly review, adjust and retain their positions in the new reality will be wondrous to behold.
The people who will have to implement Brexit and try to make it work will mostly be people who didn't vote for it, it is true. You probably see that as a conspiracy, I think it's more a case of pragmatic and well educated people generally being against Brexit. Anyway, the Remain ship has sailed, in a few years we will know whether Brexit was a good idea or not. As HYUFD rightly notes, if we rejoin it won't be for a couple of decades.
The Labour Party needs to change, but not panic. With 32%, 200 seats and critically no challenger on the left in England, it can recover and win.
It needs a strategy that repairs damage but also exploits new opportunities. These days there are no safe seats. The Tory underbelly is soft. The right leader could have a lot of fun there.
True, but that leader will need to be very able, clever and lucky. Let's hope some of them have hidden depths.
@Alistair Best to be in a governing parties marginal I reckon though if you want attention for your constituency. My own seat has gone straight to safe seat for the Tories though lol
I was hoping that the Lib Dems might get a bit closer to the Tories in Woking for that very reason.
That said, I don't think governments worry too much about this sort of thing.
Some Tory seats now con/LD marginals, e.g. Wimbledon - Tory majority now 628 Esher & Walton - almost a Portillo moment with Raab - 20 thousand cut in majority.
This is with a background of brexit, in 5 years that's not going to be the case. People will have moved on, the question is whether the Lib Dems will have.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
Who ever they get, it will take a miracle worker to overturn that majority in one term.
I give you Harold Wilson in 1964. Overturned a Tory majority of 100. Only 4, but was enough. On the other side, Edward Heath in 1970 overturned a majority of 98.
Morning all and goodness what a few days it has been. As I predicted, the LibDems (can start calling them that again since they are now utterly irrelevant) did indeed go backwards and very fitting that the net loss of 1 seat was their leader. Personally although I could never vote for him as an MP, I am delighted and hugely surprised that Jamie Stone has survived. Clearly at the last moment many SCon voters indeed decided he was the lesser evil than another SNP robot.
What now?
I am very encouraged by the fact that Boris is making huge overtures to the new blue working class voters in the north. It was interesting to hear voter after voter pointing out yesterday that they, their parents and their grandparents had always voted Labour and in fact in return the Labour party had never done anything for them. I do hope Boris now piles money into regeneration of these towns and cities which have suffered at the expense of making London richer and richer.
As for Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon ran a successful campaign and was rightly rewarded for that. The fact that half the SCon MPs survived and the SCons are now indeed the alternative to the SNP means we will have endless wrangling while in England and Wales people will knuckle down to getting on with the things in life which make their lives better. The SNP has to decide whether Scotland is Quebec or Catalonia. I suspect the majority of Scots want it to be Quebec, having a powerful devolved government with different aims but never the less part of a wider political nation, in our case the UK rather than Canada. If they go down the Catalonia route, we will have civil strife, legal battles and people like me will feel increasingly afraid of remaining in Scotland as we are made to feel more and more like unwelcome foreigners in our own country. Of course the irony is that if the SNP goes down the Catalonia route, almost certainly Spain would then veto an independent Scotland joining the EU. Orkney and Shetland would make clear they would not be part of an independent Scotland and instead choose to be the Channel Islands of the north. I can only hope that Boris will play the long game and that as with Quebec, the nationalists will overplay their hand. Right I am off back to the 18th century and my family trees and genealogical books where I feel most comfortable.
How did the Conservatives do in Ross, Skye and Lochaber?
Inoccent face.
I've no idea since I haven't studied any of the individual results. I just know the fat windbag has been re-elected. I live in a LibDem held seat.
POSSOM predicted that SCon would hold West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine on 43% of the vote Moray on 45% of the vote Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale on 47% of the vote Dumfries and Galloway on 40% of the vote Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk on 50% of the vote
Actual Con Vote % was West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 43% Moray 45% Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 46% Dumfries and Galloway 44% Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 48%
The one SCon POSSOM miss was Banff which Predicted Cons on 43% and SNP on 47%. The SLab fall did no go straight to SNP as in other seats.
Hold on. Sod Labour. When is the new Cabinet announced? Surely that will be the next big political event, unless I've missed Boris saying he will carry on with the old one.
Reportedly minor tweaks (lower ranks) ahead of Brexit, big re-shuffle to follow.
To follow Brexit eg February or follow Brexit eg post trade deal?
The Lib Dems must be particularly depressed about Cambridge, Hallam, Leeds NW and Bermondsey. Seats where they are the only challengers to an utterly dire Labour party with zero chances of the Tories winning in any of them and they still couldn't do it.
Imagine someone in the UK having a view on American politics and posting it to the interweb on a forum. No, couldnt happen.
People blathering in a forum is not quite the same as a famous person who is more likely to be taken as an authority even when stating they are no expert on a particular subject.
Not really sure why May stood again to be honest. She should have just retired from the scene. I hope that there is a shake up in the cabinet starting with Chancellor but I am not sure I see a place for her again.
She likes being an MP, even a backbench one?
I think she does. There are tales of her as PM arriving from G7 meetings after long flights and going off to open constituency village fetes while others were heading to bed. We could do with a few more former PMs in the Commons. While Brown has turned his hand to charity work Blair is a disgrace - focussing on self-enrichment - and Cameron ran away. Boris will quit when his time is up too. So Mrs May is likely to have no former PM companions for a while, if indeed ever.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
Yes we shouldn’t fall into a trap of thinking Labour can’t win next time.
It’s very very very difficult for them to win outright (but not impossible). It’s less of a stretch to see a Lab-SNP pact.
Macron and Trudeau are centrist, at most soft centre left liberals not socialists, Thursday was a rejection of socialism, Corbynism and any Labour or SNP deal
BTW my stepson says the story of the child on the floor in A and E was true... was it? I thought it had been found to be fake???
Leeds A&E -- two false stories -- an analysis of how they spread on social media, with the aid of mainstream reporters including from the Sun, Telegraph and Mail, as well as Guido.
Fake news 1: pictures of an ill boy on the floor had themselves been faked Fake news 2: an aide to Health Secretary Matt Hancock was punched by a Labour mob
As a voter I have no opportunity to meet PM candidates personally, I rely on journalists to ask them tough questions and subject them to scrutiny so I can make an informed choice. The other leaders understood that and did the interview. It speaks poorly of Johnson that he ducked it, and poorly of his supporters that they think it's ok.
You can read what they say, listen to their speeches... you don't need a journalist loking for cheap headlines or with their own agendas to do democracy for you. If you don't like the voters as you imply above because of it who the f*** cares.
I.
Whatever. Journalists nowadays all have agendas and fake news is everywhere as a result. You wanted Johnsin burned on TV and think quite wrongly that would have led to a great victory for someone else. The voters are saying they don't want to be told how to think by a bubble in Westminster. They probably admired Johnson for his stance on the media games. There will be a lot less of this nonsense next time and hopefully a shorter campaign. People don't like constant politics. they have lives.
I didn't want him burned, I wanted him scrutinised, and as I noted above I don't think it affected the result either way. Democracy is about more than listening to politicians spout a load of nonsense and then voting. And if people don't want to watch the interviews I am sure they can find a way of changing the channel. You will get your wish though, next election nobody will do these interviews, which will be a victory for politicians, especially dishonest ones, and not the electorate.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
The Liberal Democrats under Davey are not Trudeau or Macron.
Davey is not and likely will not be the LD leader, certainly not the permanent one
@Alistair Best to be in a governing parties marginal I reckon though if you want attention for your constituency. My own seat has gone straight to safe seat for the Tories though lol
I was hoping that the Lib Dems might get a bit closer to the Tories in Woking for that very reason.
That said, I don't think governments worry too much about this sort of thing.
Some Tory seats now con/LD marginals, e.g. Wimbledon - Tory majority now 628 Esher & Walton - almost a Portillo moment with Raab - 20 thousand cut in majority.
This is with a background of brexit, in 5 years that's not going to be the case. People will have moved on, the question is whether the Lib Dems will have.
Doesn't that rather depend on how Brexit plays out? If it proves to be an economic disaster the electorate could well wreak its revenge on people like Raab.
Brexit is now a given, the parliamentary arithmetic has secured that even if the actual votes cast don't merit it.
Too many people appear to be assuming that Brexit's success in the election equates with it being a success full stop. We shall have to wait and see. One thing is certain, the Tories own it 100%.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
The Liberal Democrats under Davey are not Trudeau or Macron.
Davey is not and likely will not be the LD leader, certainly not the permanent one
He is the acting LibDem leader right now, and in the absence of alternatives I have little doubt he will be confirmed in post.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
Yes we shouldn’t fall into a trap of thinking Labour can’t win next time.
It’s very very very difficult for them to win outright (but not impossible). It’s less of a stretch to see a Lab-SNP pact.
But it is going to have to be a very different Labour Party to that of Corbyn and Momentum.
It's going to have to look like a Blair, quack like a Blair.....
How Labour can make that transition will be fascinating.
I haven't been posting as I have been trying to catch up sleep having stayed up all night watching the most amazing political earthquake anyone could imagine.
Many on here, me included, began to think a hung parliament was possible as election day unfolded, especially with the early photographs of huge queues of young people in London and the total absence of any information from inside the red wall.
None of us knew or even suspected that finally the ordinary folk would rise en masse and through their ballot paper tell the elite 'you are not listening and this is what happens when you ignore us'
Looking at the before and after map of Wales the decimation of labour, apart from the Valleys, is extraordinary as the conservatives and plaid dominate with just one labour seat in the north
It is also amazing just how uniform the anger with labour was virtually everywhere and how Corbyn has the front not to resign is astonishing
I have little doubt Boris will experience quite a honeymoon and it is good to see Hesseltine and others accepting we are leaving the EU. The EU leaders also know it is over and they are making the right noises for a good deal. Boris will accommodate the EU to achieve a deal as long as it keeps us free to negotiate with other countries
The leaders of India, Australia, New Zealand, Canadaa and US have all congratulated Boris and each has confirmed they want early trade talks
It is time to move on and also time for labour to cut out the cancer at it's heart and rediscover the formula for winning elections and not just being a protest group
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
The Liberal Democrats under Davey are not Trudeau or Macron.
Davey is not and likely will not be the LD leader, certainly not the permanent one
He is the acting LibDem leader right now, and in the absence of alternatives I have little doubt he will be confirmed in post.
As per the discussion recently, Layla Moran. The huge increase in her majority says something about her.
Imagine someone in the UK having a view on American politics and posting it to the interweb on a forum. No, couldnt happen.
People blathering in a forum is not quite the same as a famous person who is more likely to be taken as an authority even when stating they are no expert on a particular subject.
I dont think that is true. If I want expert advice on politics I come to politicalbetting.com and ignore my own posts.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
The Liberal Democrats under Davey are not Trudeau or Macron.
Davey is not and likely will not be the LD leader, certainly not the permanent one
He is the acting LibDem leader right now, and in the absence of alternatives I have little doubt he will be confirmed in post.
No, it will likely be Layla Moran, Davey lost the LD membership vote to Swinson and would lose it to Moran as well
The Conservatives have got their constituency sorted out: they are the party of English nationalists. As they move into for now unassailable ascendancy there will be profound implications for the Union and for England's/UK's relationship with European neighbours and place in the World.
I was struck in Scotland, as I voted, that the Labour (Ian Murray in Edinburgh South actually - the qualification is important) and Lib Dems had identical messages on the polling place placards about independence and Brexit. If Labour in England ditch Corbyn and go in a more social democratic direction, the differences in England will narrow too. This is important because Labour and the Lib Dems are competing for the same pool of votes.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
Interesting if any Labourites make it a central part of their leadership campaign, might play well given it would have produced a Labour PM off the same votes.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
The Liberal Democrats under Davey are not Trudeau or Macron.
Davey is not and likely will not be the LD leader, certainly not the permanent one
He is the acting LibDem leader right now, and in the absence of alternatives I have little doubt he will be confirmed in post.
The Lib Dems have a very poor pool of potential leaders in its group of MPs. I would say Swinson would still be the best choice if she was available (taking a slight long and tolerant view of her mistakes). Sadly for the Lib Dems no defector won a seat, bringing much needed talent into the party. Luciana Berger would have made a decent leader for example.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
The Liberal Democrats under Davey are not Trudeau or Macron.
Davey is not and likely will not be the LD leader, certainly not the permanent one
Morning HYUFD.
Just coming to from sleep deprivation I would just like to congratulate you on being so correct in your forecasts and for all the work you put in to help the party win
Let us hope now all the party can unite behind Boris's one nation banner and get down to addressing the thousands of failed communities who lent us their vote and really begin to improve their lives
They struggled long and hard with the 'SNP Problem' (SNP always getting over stated in the polls) but in the end decided to go with what their polling said without fudging it and were vindicated.
BTW my stepson says the story of the child on the floor in A and E was true... was it? I thought it had been found to be fake???
It was true. You must have been caught out by fake news, Russian trolls, or CCHQ muddying the waters. As an aside, the child's mother complained to OFCOM, or rather CCHQ did so on her behalf, in an attempt to suppress the story.
I think everyone was.. but its just the sort of dirty thing Labour would do. I was prepared to believe it was not true for that very reason.
This will, I fear, in time become the story of this election. Dirty tricks, doubtless from all sides, on social media and elsewhere. It is hard to refute your opponents' argument if you do not even know what that opponent is saying. We are also moving closer to America in that each side has its own facts and truth does not matter.
Its the media's job to call out the lies, but they are not very good at it or do not want to Suppose C4 news called out the Tories on something. C4 news is so left wing it must be breaking its charter on impartiality. I would not trust C4 news under any circumstances whatsoever.
You prefer the lies of the likes of the mail and Express or the state propaganda unit I presume
The state propaganda unit’s “journalists” have not even been trying to conceal their delight at The Clown’s victory. It’ll end in tears.
Yes The "sainted" Nicola is heading for a fall.
Your disappointment is palpable. You'll just have to continue fantasizing about Sturgeon getting a 'kicking' (though wtf it has to do with you God only knows).
I haven't been posting as I have been trying to catch up sleep having stayed up all night watching the most amazing political earthquake anyone could imagine.
Many on here, me included, began to think a hung parliament was possible as election day unfolded, especially with the early photographs of huge queues of young people in London and the total absence of any information from inside the red wall.
None of us knew or even suspected that finally the ordinary folk would rise en masse and through their ballot paper tell the elite 'you are not listening and this is what happens when you ignore us'
Looking at the before and after map of Wales the decimation of labour, apart from the Valleys, is extraordinary as the conservatives and plaid dominate with just one labour seat in the north
It is also amazing just how uniform the anger with labour was virtually everywhere and how Corbyn has the front not to resign is astonishing
I have little doubt Boris will experience quite a honeymoon and it is good to see Hesseltine and others accepting we are leaving the EU. The EU leaders also know it is over and they are making the right noises for a good deal. Boris will accommodate the EU to achieve a deal as long as it keeps us free to negotiate with other countries
The leaders of India, Australia, New Zealand, Canadaa and US have all congratulated Boris and each has confirmed they want early trade talks
It is time to move on and also time for labour to cut out the cancer at it's heart and rediscover the formula for winning elections and not just being a protest group
I told you every night for three weeks Tory majority over 60 labour to crash and burn, thought they might have even done worse which they nearly did, I did expect lib dems to be 20+ though. It was no surprise to me and I suspect others many of whom who were desperate to keep the figment of a corby pm to frighten the faithful back.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
Yes we shouldn’t fall into a trap of thinking Labour can’t win next time.
It’s very very very difficult for them to win outright (but not impossible). It’s less of a stretch to see a Lab-SNP pact.
But it is going to have to be a very different Labour Party to that of Corbyn and Momentum.
It's going to have to look like a Blair, quack like a Blair.....
How Labour can make that transition will be fascinating.
There is no easy route to power for Labour. And I don’t think they necessarily need a Blair to do it.
British politics has gone through a realignment. Now that could be a temporary Brexit effect or it could be more permanent.
One thing Labour cannot do (IMHO) is keep on with their north London Corbynista identity politics mindset and think that all those voters in the red wall will come pouring back to them next time. The likes of Burgon display a dangerous mindset that this was an aberration and they will naturally come home to Labour in 2024. It becomes a lot easier to vote for the Tories again when you’ve done it once. A lot of those voters have broken down that barrier in their heads that they can never vote blue. If Labour want them back, they have to say something to them.
Now Labour could choose to ignore those voters and keep on the track of trying to appeal to the professional classes and urban metropolitans. This strategy is not going to yield results immediately, as there are simply not enough seats at this stage that this would bring into play to compensate for loss of the red wall. Alternatively, they could try and win the working classes back, but to do that they need to tackle some deep-seated ideological issues to do that. They’d need to start talking about things like support for small businesses, immigration, making it pay to work, etc. Some will say that’s small T Tory stuff, but it’s not really, these are the new concerns of the working classes and Labour are supposed to be a party for the working man.
Finally they could go full Blair, but I’m not sure there’s anyone with the skill or persuasion in Labour to want to do that. And Blairism for 2024 is not without its issues - let’s not forget that much of the root cause of the Brexit vote and everything that has followed was the policies of the 1997-2010 Labour government.
And watching the Remain establishment quietly review, adjust and retain their positions in the new reality will be wondrous to behold.
The people who will have to implement Brexit and try to make it work will mostly be people who didn't vote for it, it is true. You probably see that as a conspiracy, I think it's more a case of pragmatic and well educated people generally being against Brexit. Anyway, the Remain ship has sailed, in a few years we will know whether Brexit was a good idea or not. As HYUFD rightly notes, if we rejoin it won't be for a couple of decades.
The Remain ship sailed in 2016. There has been marked lack of reality from all sides ever since. The debate once the grinding reality of Brexit sinks in will be about how we adapt to our satellite status. given the rationale for Brexit was taking back control.
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
The Liberal Democrats under Davey are not Trudeau or Macron.
Davey is not and likely will not be the LD leader, certainly not the permanent one
He is the acting LibDem leader right now, and in the absence of alternatives I have little doubt he will be confirmed in post.
No, it will likely be Layla Moran, Davey lost the LD membership vote to Swinson and would lose it to Moran as well
Neither of those would be my preference but I'll have to wait and see who stands.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
Who ever they get, it will take a miracle worker to overturn that majority in one term.
I give you Harold Wilson in 1964. Overturned a Tory majority of 100. Only 4, but was enough. On the other side, Edward Heath in 1970 overturned a majority of 98.
And the Tories lost about 80 seats in 1992 and everyone thought Labour had significantly underachieved.
The Conservatives have got their constituency sorted out: they are the party of English nationalists. As they move into for now unassailable ascendancy there will be profound implications for the Union and for England's/UK's relationship with European neighbours and place in the World.
I was struck in Scotland, as I voted, that the Labour (Ian Murray in Edinburgh South actually - the qualification is important) and Lib Dems had identical messages on the polling place placards about independence and Brexit. If Labour in England ditch Corbyn and go in a more social democratic direction, the differences in England will narrow too. This is important because Labour and the Lib Dems are competing for the same pool of votes.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
With the greatest respect the former labour voters voted for 'Boris' not the conservative party and he is the reason why the earthquake happened
Tbh, they are probably right. If Labour had gone into this election promising to implement a "Labour Brexit" which keeps the benefits of the single market and employee protections the red wall may not have broken, it didn't in 2017. They may have lost 10-15 seats to the Lib Dems but not 45 to the Tories.
And watching the Remain establishment quietly review, adjust and retain their positions in the new reality will be wondrous to behold.
The people who will have to implement Brexit and try to make it work will mostly be people who didn't vote for it, it is true. You probably see that as a conspiracy, I think it's more a case of pragmatic and well educated people generally being against Brexit. Anyway, the Remain ship has sailed, in a few years we will know whether Brexit was a good idea or not. As HYUFD rightly notes, if we rejoin it won't be for a couple of decades.
The Remain ship sailed in 2016. There has been marked lack of reality from all sides ever since. The debate once the grinding reality of Brexit sinks in will be about how we adapt to our satellite status. given the rationale for Brexit was taking back control.
I've been campaigning, at one level or another, for EEC/EU membership since about 1970. I really wanted us to a proud and useful part of something. Now we're back to satellite again and I don't suppose it will change for better in my lifetime. However, I still live in hope!
Tbh, they are probably right. If Labour had gone into this election promising to implement a "Labour Brexit" which keeps the benefits of the single market and employee protections the red wall may not have broken, it didn't in 2017. They may have lost 10-15 seats to the Lib Dems but not 45 to the Tories.
They may have lost 30-50 MPs to the Tiggers before the election? Who knows?
And watching the Remain establishment quietly review, adjust and retain their positions in the new reality will be wondrous to behold.
The people who will have to implement Brexit and try to make it work will mostly be people who didn't vote for it, it is true. You probably see that as a conspiracy, I think it's more a case of pragmatic and well educated people generally being against Brexit. Anyway, the Remain ship has sailed, in a few years we will know whether Brexit was a good idea or not. As HYUFD rightly notes, if we rejoin it won't be for a couple of decades.
The Remain ship sailed in 2016. There has been marked lack of reality from all sides ever since. The debate once the grinding reality of Brexit sinks in will be about how we adapt to our satellite status. given the rationale for Brexit was taking back control.
I've been campaigning, at one level or another, for EEC/EU membership since about 1970. I really wanted us to a proud and useful part of something. Now we're back to satellite again and I don't suppose it will change for better in my lifetime. However, I still live in hope!
Yes, a bit depressing. These days a foreign-policy triumph means Boris surviving a press conference with Trump.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters. -----‐-----‐--‐------------------------------------------------------- The result for Labour in the red wall was both terrible could have been much worse but also had as you say a silver lining.
The choice of leader for Labour is crucial. Pick someone who will listen to concerns on immigration, national security, patriotism and rejects maxist economics and these voters *might* just come back.
However this is now a final final final warning for Labour now. Ignore them now and they will actually switch to the Tories. Wholesale. And Labour will cease to be a national political force.
The Conservatives have got their constituency sorted out: they are the party of English nationalists. As they move into for now unassailable ascendancy there will be profound implications for the Union and for England's/UK's relationship with European neighbours and place in the World.
I was struck in Scotland, as I voted, that the Labour (Ian Murray in Edinburgh South actually - the qualification is important) and Lib Dems had identical messages on the polling place placards about independence and Brexit. If Labour in England ditch Corbyn and go in a more social democratic direction, the differences in England will narrow too. This is important because Labour and the Lib Dems are competing for the same pool of votes.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
With the greatest respect the former labour voters voted for 'Boris' not the conservative party and he is the reason why the earthquake happened
In net terms, 2017 Labour voters didn't vote for Boris or the Conservatives. They voted for Labour (obviously), the Lib Dems or didn't vote at all. The Conservatives barely added any votes.
It's possible there is churn - eg Labour voters moved to the Conservatives in some constituencies, while Conservatives moved to Labour in others - but we would have to drill down into the constituencies to see if that's the case.
I haven't been posting as I have been trying to catch up sleep having stayed up all night watching the most amazing political earthquake anyone could imagine.
Many on here, me included, began to think a hung parliament was possible as election day unfolded, especially with the early photographs of huge queues of young people in London and the total absence of any information from inside the red wall.
None of us knew or even suspected that finally the ordinary folk would rise en masse and through their ballot paper tell the elite 'you are not listening and this is what happens when you ignore us'
Looking at the before and after map of Wales the decimation of labour, apart from the Valleys, is extraordinary as the conservatives and plaid dominate with just one labour seat in the north
It is also amazing just how uniform the anger with labour was virtually everywhere and how Corbyn has the front not to resign is astonishing
I have little doubt Boris will experience quite a honeymoon and it is good to see Hesseltine and others accepting we are leaving the EU. The EU leaders also know it is over and they are making the right noises for a good deal. Boris will accommodate the EU to achieve a deal as long as it keeps us free to negotiate with other countries
The leaders of India, Australia, New Zealand, Canadaa and US have all congratulated Boris and each has confirmed they want early trade talks
It is time to move on and also time for labour to cut out the cancer at it's heart and rediscover the formula for winning elections and not just being a protest group
I told you every night for three weeks Tory majority over 60 labour to crash and burn, thought they might have even done worse which they nearly did, I did expect lib dems to be 20+ though. It was no surprise to me and I suspect others many of whom who were desperate to keep the figment of a corby pm to frighten the faithful back.
Yes, but you weren't emotionally invested in the result! It's hard to believe what you qant to happen is what is going to happen based on the dry stats when all the emotional stuff - the history and the anecdata - tells you otherwise. Especially when you fear the alternative so much. And we Tories did fear Corbynism far, far more than we have feared any Labour party in my lifetime. That colours judgement somewhat.
But yes, kudos to you: your prediction was pretty much spot on.
Perhaps the decline in Labour's red wall vote is simply down to mortality? Quite a few remainers were eagerly anticipating the demise of Leave-voting OAPs - looks like they got their wish.
Paper candidate unexpectedly lands job alert - Virginia Crosbie
The chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives, London is now the MP for Ynys Mon !!
Ynys Môn was always a three-way marginal. No Tory was entirely a paper candidate.
At the same time, the importation of a London candidate was one reason I confidently expected Plaid to win. Wales is changing rapidly politically and it is becoming hard to read.
Paper candidate unexpectedly lands job alert - Virginia Crosbie
The chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives, London is now the MP for Ynys Mon !!
Ynys Môn was always a three-way marginal. No Tory was entirely a paper candidate.
At the same time, the importation of a London candidate was one reason I confidently expected Plaid to win. Wales is changing rapidly politically and it is becoming hard to read.
She could turn out to be Anglesea's brightest prospect since Keith Best.
Morning all and goodness what a few days it has been. As I predicted, the LibDems (can start calling them that again since they are now utterly irrelevant) did indeed go backwards and very fitting that the net loss of 1 seat was their leader. Personally although I could never vote for him as an MP, I am delighted and hugely surprised that Jamie Stone has survived. Clearly at the last moment many SCon voters indeed decided he was the lesser evil than another SNP robot.
What now?
I am very encouraged by the fact that Boris is making huge overtures to the new blue working class voters in the north. It was interesting to hear voter after voter pointing out yesterday that they, their parents and their grandparents had always voted Labour and in fact in return the Labour party had never done anything for them. I do hope Boris now piles money into regeneration of these towns and cities which have suffered at the expense of making London richer and richer.
As for Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon ran a successful campaign and was rightly rewarded for that. The fact that half the SCon MPs survived and the SCons are now indeed the alternative to the SNP means we will have endless wrangling while in England and Wales people will knuckle down to getting on with the things in life which make their lives better. The SNP has to decide whether Scotland is Quebec or Catalonia. I suspect the majority of Scots want it to be Quebec, having a powerful devolved government with different aims but never the less part of a wider political nation, in our case the UK rather than Canada. If they go down the Catalonia route, we will have civil strife, legal battles and people like me will feel increasingly afraid of remaining in Scotland as we are made to feel more and more like unwelcome foreigners in our own country. Of course the irony is that if the SNP goes down the Catalonia route, almost certainly Spain would then veto an independent Scotland joining the EU. Orkney and Shetland would make clear they would not be part of an independent Scotland and instead choose to be the Channel Islands of the north. I can only hope that Boris will play the long game and that as with Quebec, the nationalists will overplay their hand. Right I am off back to the 18th century and my family trees and genealogical books where I feel most comfortable.
How did the Conservatives do in Ross, Skye and Lochaber?
Inoccent face.
I've no idea since I haven't studied any of the individual results. I just know the fat windbag has been re-elected. I live in a LibDem held seat.
"I just know the fact windbag has been re-elected"
Paper candidate unexpectedly lands job alert - Virginia Crosbie
The chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives, London is now the MP for Ynys Mon !!
Ynys Môn was always a three-way marginal. No Tory was entirely a paper candidate.
At the same time, the importation of a London candidate was one reason I confidently expected Plaid to win. Wales is changing rapidly politically and it is becoming hard to read.
Ynys Mon has paid out many times for me, got on Labour there last election. This election it won me my Tory bet there at 4-1 also landed the under 4.5 seats for Plaid bet
The Conservatives have got their constituency sorted out: they are the party of English nationalists. As they move into for now unassailable ascendancy there will be profound implications for the Union and for England's/UK's relationship with European neighbours and place in the World.
I was struck in Scotland, as I voted, that the Labour (Ian Murray in Edinburgh South actually - the qualification is important) and Lib Dems had identical messages on the polling place placards about independence and Brexit. If Labour in England ditch Corbyn and go in a more social democratic direction, the differences in England will narrow too. This is important because Labour and the Lib Dems are competing for the same pool of votes.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
With the greatest respect the former labour voters voted for 'Boris' not the conservative party and he is the reason why the earthquake happened
In net terms, 2017 Labour voters didn't vote for Boris or the Conservatives. They voted for Labour (obviously), the Lib Dems or didn't vote at all. The Conservatives barely added any votes.
It's possible there is churn - eg Labour voters moved to the Conservatives in some constituencies, while Conservatives moved to Labour in others - but we would have to drill down into the constituencies to see if that's the case.
Hmmm.
I think you are making insufficient allowance for churn. Quite clearly a very large number of Labour voters from 2017 switched to the Tories directly in the North, or to Brexit. That was balanced by a loss of remainers in the South and Scotland.
A thing that should give Labour pause is that despite only a fairly small increase in the number of votes, the Tories have won nearly fifty extra seats. Clearly their message is resonating where it counts.
The Conservatives have got their constituency sorted out: they are the party of English nationalists. As they move into for now unassailable ascendancy there will be profound implications for the Union and for England's/UK's relationship with European neighbours and place in the World.
I was struck in Scotland, as I voted, that the Labour (Ian Murray in Edinburgh South actually - the qualification is important) and Lib Dems had identical messages on the polling place placards about independence and Brexit. If Labour in England ditch Corbyn and go in a more social democratic direction, the differences in England will narrow too. This is important because Labour and the Lib Dems are competing for the same pool of votes.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
With the greatest respect the former labour voters voted for 'Boris' not the conservative party and he is the reason why the earthquake happened
Yes - and I think Boris - or his speech writer is well aware of that. Let’s see what they do for the North.
Paper candidate unexpectedly lands job alert - Virginia Crosbie
The chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives, London is now the MP for Ynys Mon !!
Ynys Môn was always a three-way marginal. No Tory was entirely a paper candidate.
At the same time, the importation of a London candidate was one reason I confidently expected Plaid to win. Wales is changing rapidly politically and it is becoming hard to read.
The Lib Dems must be particularly depressed about Cambridge, Hallam, Leeds NW and Bermondsey. Seats where they are the only challengers to an utterly dire Labour party with zero chances of the Tories winning in any of them and they still couldn't do it.
They need to ask themselves some serious questions about what they are for. My overwhelming sense from this election is that they are "for" the Liberal Democrats and little else. No sense of a coherent programme for government, mired in the Coalition years and unclear how to deal with it for good and bad, driven by triangulation with the Tories and Labour, rather than their own distinct position.
Tbh, they are probably right. If Labour had gone into this election promising to implement a "Labour Brexit" which keeps the benefits of the single market and employee protections the red wall may not have broken, it didn't in 2017. They may have lost 10-15 seats to the Lib Dems but not 45 to the Tories.
In 2017 we were earlier on in the process and everyone could hear what they wanted to, including the enthusiastic remainers at Glastonbury. They could have lost a lot more than 10-15 in metropolitan areas with a message like that, I think. Just an impossible gap to bridge.
Bloody Hell, I've checked. Originally the Tories were going to put....................
CHRIS DAVIES into Ynys Mon
@Casino_Royale I'm not sure - both Plaid and Labour have a claim to be the main challenger there and the electoral dynamics might mean she can come through the middle again. First time incumbency for her too.
The size of the Tory majority means all MPs won't have to spend every waking moment near parliament too.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
-----‐-----‐--‐------------------------------------------------------- The result for Labour in the red wall was both terrible could have been much worse but also had as you say a silver lining.
The choice of leader for Labour is crucial. Pick someone who will listen to concerns on immigration, national security, patriotism and rejects maxist economics and these voters *might* just come back.
However this is now a final final final warning for Labour now. Ignore them now and they will actually switch to the Tories. Wholesale. And Labour will cease to be a national political force.
_____\ (post starts - blockquote appears to be playing up)
Your point on patriotism is a really good one and one I overlooked in my earlier post.
There is, unfortunately, a tendency on the British left to look at everything through the spectrum of how bad a country we are. This national self flagellation goes down like a bucket of cold sick to many voters, in particular voters in traditional Labour heartlands.
Labour dedicated a day of the campaign to explaining how they were going to teach schoolchildren just how awful Britain was in the past. This sort of stuff fires up the far left, but it just looks mean spirited and unpatriotic to many others, much of whom I’m sure would acknowledge that Britain has done many bad things in world (as well as good).
And if Labour does elect a hard left leader again the Tories could potentially be there for another decade unless the LDs can overtake them as the main party if the centre left
That would still be a decade. One election to replace Labour, a second to replace the Tories.
Though Macron and En Marche overtook the French Socialists in one election and Trudeau came from 3rd in 2011 to win in 2015
The Liberal Democrats under Davey are not Trudeau or Macron.
Davey is not and likely will not be the LD leader, certainly not the permanent one
Morning HYUFD.
Just coming to from sleep deprivation I would just like to congratulate you on being so correct in your forecasts and for all the work you put in to help the party win
Let us hope now all the party can unite behind Boris's one nation banner and get down to addressing the thousands of failed communities who lent us their vote and really begin to improve their lives
The Conservatives have got their constituency sorted out: they are the party of English nationalists. As they move into for now unassailable ascendancy there will be profound implications for the Union and for England's/UK's relationship with European neighbours and place in the World.
I was struck in Scotland, as I voted, that the Labour (Ian Murray in Edinburgh South actually - the qualification is important) and Lib Dems had identical messages on the polling place placards about independence and Brexit. If Labour in England ditch Corbyn and go in a more social democratic direction, the differences in England will narrow too. This is important because Labour and the Lib Dems are competing for the same pool of votes.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
With the greatest respect the former labour voters voted for 'Boris' not the conservative party and he is the reason why the earthquake happened
In net terms, 2017 Labour voters didn't vote for Boris or the Conservatives. They voted for Labour (obviously), the Lib Dems or didn't vote at all. The Conservatives barely added any votes.
It's possible there is churn - eg Labour voters moved to the Conservatives in some constituencies, while Conservatives moved to Labour in others - but we would have to drill down into the constituencies to see if that's the case.
Didn't Thrasher say that 40% of voters have changed the party they voted for in the last three elections? So I don't think this "stay at home" analysis is right, and could be very misleading.
And watching the Remain establishment quietly review, adjust and retain their positions in the new reality will be wondrous to behold.
The people who will have to implement Brexit and try to make it work will mostly be people who didn't vote for it, it is true. You probably see that as a conspiracy, I think it's more a case of pragmatic and well educated people generally being against Brexit. Anyway, the Remain ship has sailed, in a few years we will know whether Brexit was a good idea or not. As HYUFD rightly notes, if we rejoin it won't be for a couple of decades.
The Remain ship sailed in 2016. There has been marked lack of reality from all sides ever since. The debate once the grinding reality of Brexit sinks in will be about how we adapt to our satellite status. given the rationale for Brexit was taking back control.
I've been campaigning, at one level or another, for EEC/EU membership since about 1970. I really wanted us to a proud and useful part of something. Now we're back to satellite again and I don't suppose it will change for better in my lifetime. However, I still live in hope!
The best solution is a new revised European governance model that's not a million miles away from what Macron suggested in the recent past.
Several concentric circles of European cooperation and integration rather than a "one-size fits all" fully integrated model based on full membership of the EU, or nothing. In fact, what many Eurosceptics like me were arguing for at the start of the decade.
If I had to guess I'd say the most immediate prospects for that are for defence and security cooperation in Europe, where I expect us to retain a leadership role despite us being outside the EU.
Bloody Hell, I've checked. Originally the Tories were going to put....................
CHRIS DAVIES into Ynys Mon
@Casino_Royale I'm not sure - both Plaid and Labour have a claim to be the main challenger there and the electoral dynamics might mean she can come through the middle again. First time incumbency for her too.
The size of the Tory majority means all MPs won't have to spend every waking moment near parliament too.
I very much doubt Ynys Mon really wanted a Tory MP. They'll unite behind whoever is best placed to defeat her.
The Conservatives have got their constituency sorted out: they are the party of English nationalists. As they move into for now unassailable ascendancy there will be profound implications for the Union and for England's/UK's relationship with European neighbours and place in the World.
I was struck in Scotland, as I voted, that the Labour (Ian Murray in Edinburgh South actually - the qualification is important) and Lib Dems had identical messages on the polling place placards about independence and Brexit. If Labour in England ditch Corbyn and go in a more social democratic direction, the differences in England will narrow too. This is important because Labour and the Lib Dems are competing for the same pool of votes.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
With the greatest respect the former labour voters voted for 'Boris' not the conservative party and he is the reason why the earthquake happened
In net terms, 2017 Labour voters didn't vote for Boris or the Conservatives. They voted for Labour (obviously), the Lib Dems or didn't vote at all. The Conservatives barely added any votes.
It's possible there is churn - eg Labour voters moved to the Conservatives in some constituencies, while Conservatives moved to Labour in others - but we would have to drill down into the constituencies to see if that's the case.
Hmmm.
I think you are making insufficient allowance for churn. Quite clearly a very large number of Labour voters from 2017 switched to the Tories directly in the North, or to Brexit. That was balanced by a loss of remainers in the South and Scotland.
A thing that should give Labour pause is that despite only a fairly small increase in the number of votes, the Tories have won nearly fifty extra seats. Clearly their message is resonating where it counts.
To be clear, I think 2019 was a disaster for Labour. Their big ideological problem is that the Conservatives have the English Nationalist vote sewn up, while Labour have to share the progressive vote with the Lib Dems and Greens. The one silver lining I am pointing to is that I don't think Johnson has sealed the deal with the Northern working class. Yet.
Paper candidate unexpectedly lands job alert - Virginia Crosbie
The chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives, London is now the MP for Ynys Mon !!
Ynys Môn was always a three-way marginal. No Tory was entirely a paper candidate.
At the same time, the importation of a London candidate was one reason I confidently expected Plaid to win. Wales is changing rapidly politically and it is becoming hard to read.
Second homers?
I don't suppose second-homers had much influence in a December election. Anyone who registers to vote at their maison secondaire on Anglesea runs the risk of a two-week stint of jury service at Caernarfon crown court!
But it would be interesting to know what proportion of electors in Wales were born and raised in England. More than ever, I suspect.
Paper candidate unexpectedly lands job alert - Virginia Crosbie
The chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives, London is now the MP for Ynys Mon !!
Ynys Môn was always a three-way marginal. No Tory was entirely a paper candidate.
At the same time, the importation of a London candidate was one reason I confidently expected Plaid to win. Wales is changing rapidly politically and it is becoming hard to read.
Second homers?
I think it’s more changing attitudes. Wales used to be very parochial and insular, partly because it spoke a different language and partly because it was so very remote. Now, I think there’s a much greater willingness to embrace the outside world and come into line with it - partly I suspect due to the Internet. That also means repudiating the old ways and old attitudes.
Labour has lost much of its tribal vote because people can see, quite clearly, that things are better elsewhere and that what’s holding Wales back is that Labour are running it and their policies simply do not work. So they are abandoning Labour. The Tories offer an alternative.
At the same time, the younger, more ambitious people are seeking jobs elsewhere (I suppose I’m a classic case of that). So those who stay really do have a strong emotional attachment and really want to see improvements. But Plaid offer that, not Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
Because Labour’s vote has always been so big it’s hard to judge what impact it’s fragmentation will have. But I can foresee Tory surges in the north east, south west and middle coupled with Plaid cleaning up the valleys. If I were Drakeford, I would be a very worried man this morning.
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Only McD, Thornberry and Starmer seem smart enough in the shadow cabinet
All of these Tories taking a seat from Labour or the LibDems this year would be well advised to forget any form of career advancement for now - just dig in and work the seat like a demon. There are several Tory MPs out there who can give them tips on what to do. Ben Bradley (majority 16k) against Labour and Kevin Foster (majority 18k) againt the LibDems show what you can achieve when you focus on your constituency. (Torbay was an interesting control experment in how to lose a seat - in the 90's Rupert Allason barely set foot in the place, with the inevitable loss to the LibDems.)
Never too late
Bxp gain if they can add another digit...
Plugging the actual Scottish NAtional Voteshare and tunrout into POSSOM gives a final score of
SNP: 51 Seats
SCons: 5 Seats
Lib Dems: 2 Seats
SLab: 1 Seat
POSSOM predicted that SCon would hold
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine on 43% of the vote
Moray on 45% of the vote
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale on 47% of the vote
Dumfries and Galloway on 40% of the vote
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk on 50% of the vote
Actual Con Vote % was
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 43%
Moray 45%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 46%
Dumfries and Galloway 44%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 48%
The one SCon POSSOM miss was Banff which Predicted Cons on 43% and SNP on 47%. The SLab fall did no go straight to SNP as in other seats.
Seats where they are the only challengers to an utterly dire Labour party with zero chances of the Tories winning in any of them and they still couldn't do it.
Brexit is now a given, the parliamentary arithmetic has secured that even if the actual votes cast don't merit it.
Too many people appear to be assuming that Brexit's success in the election equates with it being a success full stop. We shall have to wait and see. One thing is certain, the Tories own it 100%.
It's going to have to look like a Blair, quack like a Blair.....
How Labour can make that transition will be fascinating.
I haven't been posting as I have been trying to catch up sleep having stayed up all night watching the most amazing political earthquake anyone could imagine.
Many on here, me included, began to think a hung parliament was possible as election day unfolded, especially with the early photographs of huge queues of young people in London and the total absence of any information from inside the red wall.
None of us knew or even suspected that finally the ordinary folk would rise en masse and through their ballot paper tell the elite 'you are not listening and this is what happens when you ignore us'
Looking at the before and after map of Wales the decimation of labour, apart from the Valleys, is extraordinary as the conservatives and plaid dominate with just one labour seat in the north
It is also amazing just how uniform the anger with labour was virtually everywhere and how Corbyn has the front not to resign is astonishing
I have little doubt Boris will experience quite a honeymoon and it is good to see Hesseltine and others accepting we are leaving the EU. The EU leaders also know it is over and they are making the right noises for a good deal. Boris will accommodate the EU to achieve a deal as long as it keeps us free to negotiate with other countries
The leaders of India, Australia, New Zealand, Canadaa and US have all congratulated Boris and each has confirmed they want early trade talks
It is time to move on and also time for labour to cut out the cancer at it's heart and rediscover the formula for winning elections and not just being a protest group
I was struck in Scotland, as I voted, that the Labour (Ian Murray in Edinburgh South actually - the qualification is important) and Lib Dems had identical messages on the polling place placards about independence and Brexit. If Labour in England ditch Corbyn and go in a more social democratic direction, the differences in England will narrow too. This is important because Labour and the Lib Dems are competing for the same pool of votes.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
Just coming to from sleep deprivation I would just like to congratulate you on being so correct in your forecasts and for all the work you put in to help the party win
Let us hope now all the party can unite behind Boris's one nation banner and get down to addressing the thousands of failed communities who lent us their vote and really begin to improve their lives
They struggled long and hard with the 'SNP Problem' (SNP always getting over stated in the polls) but in the end decided to go with what their polling said without fudging it and were vindicated.
Con 374, Lab 205, LD 3, SNP + Plaid 49.
Even with no leave/remain correction it had the Tories short by 700 votes in Blyth Valley for instance.
The Lib Dem seats were completely wrong though
British politics has gone through a realignment. Now that could be a temporary Brexit effect or it could be more permanent.
One thing Labour cannot do (IMHO) is keep on with their north London Corbynista identity politics mindset and think that all those voters in the red wall will come pouring back to them next time. The likes of Burgon display a dangerous mindset that this was an aberration and they will naturally come home to Labour in 2024. It becomes a lot easier to vote for the Tories again when you’ve done it once. A lot of those voters have broken down that barrier in their heads that they can never vote blue. If Labour want them back, they have to say something to them.
Now Labour could choose to ignore those voters and keep on the track of trying to appeal to the professional classes and urban metropolitans. This strategy is not going to yield results immediately, as there are simply not enough seats at this stage that this would bring into play to compensate for loss of the red wall. Alternatively, they could try and win the working classes back, but to do that they need to tackle some deep-seated ideological issues to do that. They’d need to start talking about things like support for small businesses, immigration, making it pay to work, etc. Some will say that’s small T Tory stuff, but it’s not really, these are the new concerns of the working classes and Labour are supposed to be a party for the working man.
Finally they could go full Blair, but I’m not sure there’s anyone with the skill or persuasion in Labour to want to do that. And Blairism for 2024 is not without its issues - let’s not forget that much of the root cause of the Brexit vote and everything that has followed was the policies of the 1997-2010 Labour government.
The chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives, London is now the MP for Ynys Mon !!
However, I still live in hope!
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
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The result for Labour in the red wall was both terrible could have been much worse but also had as you say a silver lining.
The choice of leader for Labour is crucial. Pick someone who will listen to concerns on immigration, national security, patriotism and rejects maxist economics and these voters *might* just come back.
However this is now a final final final warning for Labour now. Ignore them now and they will actually switch to the Tories. Wholesale. And Labour will cease to be a national political force.
It's possible there is churn - eg Labour voters moved to the Conservatives in some constituencies, while Conservatives moved to Labour in others - but we would have to drill down into the constituencies to see if that's the case.
But yes, kudos to you: your prediction was pretty much spot on.
Perhaps the decline in Labour's red wall vote is simply down to mortality? Quite a few remainers were eagerly anticipating the demise of Leave-voting OAPs - looks like they got their wish.
At the same time, the importation of a London candidate was one reason I confidently expected Plaid to win. Wales is changing rapidly politically and it is becoming hard to read.
Could be talking about a number of people....
I think you are making insufficient allowance for churn. Quite clearly a very large number of Labour voters from 2017 switched to the Tories directly in the North, or to Brexit. That was balanced by a loss of remainers in the South and Scotland.
A thing that should give Labour pause is that despite only a fairly small increase in the number of votes, the Tories have won nearly fifty extra seats. Clearly their message is resonating where it counts.
CHRIS DAVIES into Ynys Mon
@Casino_Royale I'm not sure - both Plaid and Labour have a claim to be the main challenger there and the electoral dynamics might mean she can come through the middle again. First time incumbency for her too.
The size of the Tory majority means all MPs won't have to spend every waking moment near parliament too.
The result for Labour in the red wall was both terrible could have been much worse but also had as you say a silver lining.
The choice of leader for Labour is crucial. Pick someone who will listen to concerns on immigration, national security, patriotism and rejects maxist economics and these voters *might* just come back.
However this is now a final final final warning for Labour now. Ignore them now and they will actually switch to the Tories. Wholesale. And Labour will cease to be a national political force.
_____\ (post starts - blockquote appears to be playing up)
Your point on patriotism is a really good one and one I overlooked in my earlier post.
There is, unfortunately, a tendency on the British left to look at everything through the spectrum of how bad a country we are. This national self flagellation goes down like a bucket of cold sick to many voters, in particular voters in traditional Labour heartlands.
Labour dedicated a day of the campaign to explaining how they were going to teach schoolchildren just how awful Britain was in the past. This sort of stuff fires up the far left, but it just looks mean spirited and unpatriotic to many others, much of whom I’m sure would acknowledge that Britain has done many bad things in world (as well as good).
Several concentric circles of European cooperation and integration rather than a "one-size fits all" fully integrated model based on full membership of the EU, or nothing. In fact, what many Eurosceptics like me were arguing for at the start of the decade.
If I had to guess I'd say the most immediate prospects for that are for defence and security cooperation in Europe, where I expect us to retain a leadership role despite us being outside the EU.
Probably Plaid.
But it would be interesting to know what proportion of electors in Wales were born and raised in England. More than ever, I suspect.
Labour has lost much of its tribal vote because people can see, quite clearly, that things are better elsewhere and that what’s holding Wales back is that Labour are running it and their policies simply do not work. So they are abandoning Labour. The Tories offer an alternative.
At the same time, the younger, more ambitious people are seeking jobs elsewhere (I suppose I’m a classic case of that). So those who stay really do have a strong emotional attachment and really want to see improvements. But Plaid offer that, not Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
Because Labour’s vote has always been so big it’s hard to judge what impact it’s fragmentation will have. But I can foresee Tory surges in the north east, south west and middle coupled with Plaid cleaning up the valleys. If I were Drakeford, I would be a very worried man this morning.