Ynys Mon was a funny one. Looks to me - and I know it's possible to wildly misinterpret these things - like voters switching from LD to Con after the LDs stood down in favour of PC. Which - admitedly from the perapective of 100 miles eastwards - is entirely understandable: in North Wales terms, in the absence of a LD candidate, Con would appear to be the nearest thing. But just goes to show: you can't shufflevoters around like counters on a gane board. Arguably the Remain Alliance led to a net gain of - 1 Remainers.
As a general comment, there doesn’t appear to be any easy way for Labour out of the quagmire and anyone that they pick is going to have an absolute avalanche of problems, but for what it’s worth:
Starmer - won’t get it because they are desperate for a woman leader. Effective commons performer. Not likely to frighten the horses. Not sure about his ability to speak to ex-Labour voters in the former red wall or to take on the maomentumers. Superficially looks the best on paper, think his tenure would be beset by problems though.
Jess Phillips - probably has what it takes to have the scraps that need to be had in Labour to sort out all the nonsense. May help get ex Labour voters on side. A bit of a marmite figure I think - some think she’s a blatant opportunist. I would remind those who say that who the current occupant of Number 10 is. Labour could do worse.
Angela Rayner - growing into her role. Used to be pretty rubbish at interviews and media appearances but has managed to turn that around and now tends to be quite effective. Probably has greatest ability to connect and reach out beyond the London Labour circles. Impressive back story. Her politics are still a bit unknown and it would be good to hear more from her on that. Probably the best pick along with Phillips, if we’re assuming it has to be a woman.
Emily Thornberry - represents everything about the Labour Islingtonista class, summed up with white van man gate which would be a millstone around her neck. A decent Commons performer, but would quite frankly be a disaster.
Yvette Cooper - always a perennial favourite and probably the best politician among the crop, but her time has probably been and gone. Looking more like a good unity shadow cabinet player than a future leader, IMHO.
Hilary Benn - see Yvette Cooper. Also, not a woman so no chance.
Rebecca Long-Bailey - no. Just no.
Richard Burgon - start manning the lifeboats.
I don't see anybody on that list who will lose Boris a moment's sleep.
Who ever they get, it will take a miracle worker to overturn that majority in one term.
I give you Harold Wilson in 1964. Overturned a Tory majority of 100. Only 4, but was enough. On the other side, Edward Heath in 1970 overturned a majority of 98.
And the Tories lost about 80 seats in 1992 and everyone thought Labour had significantly underachieved.
The mathematics of FPTP seemed to work rather differently in thise days. On for a future thread header, perhaps.
Blyth valley - it'll be more complex than this but simplest numbers that work
3394 to Brexit Party 1631 Labour voters from last time stayed at home 1585 switched to the Tories 228 to Green 204 to Lib Dems
That looks right; said similar to Mrs C on the night, without the maths. So when Brexit is done, could be around 5000 more Labour votes. And the Tory majority was 700 or so. Assumes none of the 5000 have died, of course. And, are there any new estates being built in the area?
What is clear is that whilst Corbyn was the ultimate reason for Labour's heavy defeat, it is the post-2010 Labour that has been failing to win voters back for years. So many of these seats have been trending away from Labour for nine years.
Labour needs to get out of London urgently. They've failed badly with two posh London leaders (albeit Ed was representing Doncaster) and it's clear this strategy is not working.
The Momentum group is what signifies everything people seem to hate about Labour and they need to go. Labour's PR and leadership teams need to go.
Labour needs a rebrand, a decisive break with the last nine years.
I still believe that with the Tories tacking to the left on certain policies, Labour can offer a 2017-light package of something like ending austerity, managing tuition fees, fixing the railways, investment and come back to win. But they need a patriotic leader, somebody who people believe will defend the country, somebody from their communities who is prepared to listen.
Labour needs to break with Brexit and accept it's happened and not challenge it further, this signifies again everything people have left Labour for since 2010 and beyond.
What Labour needs is an Attlee or a Blair. Labour needs to look ready for Government next year, not in five years. Labour has a decent length of time to really win back these voters.
If Labour isn't prepared to listen, wake up and learn these lessons, the very people that so need a Labour Government are going to be failed. Pragmatism trumps ideology.
And I will leave you with this: Boris Johnson managed to convince Labour seats that over the last nine years of Tory Government, the real change they need is Tory Government. Labour needs to figure out how the hell this has happened.
The Conservatives have got their constituency sorted out: they are the party of English nationalists. As they move into for now unassailable ascendancy there will be profound implications for the Union and for England's/UK's relationship with European neighbours and place in the World.
I was struck in Scotland, as I voted, that the Labour (Ian Murray in Edinburgh South actually - the qualification is important) and Lib Dems had identical messages on the polling place placards about independence and Brexit. If Labour in England ditch Corbyn and go in a more social democratic direction, the differences in England will narrow too. This is important because Labour and the Lib Dems are competing for the same pool of votes.
Onto the Red Wall. While the collapse is a disaster for Labour, there are a couple of silver linings. There appears to no love from former Labour voters for Boris Johnson. They don't trust him or believe his promises. They have mostly stopped voting Labour rather than switch to the Conservatives. It seems Labour does have a last chance of reaching out to these very frustrated voters.
With the greatest respect the former labour voters voted for 'Boris' not the conservative party and he is the reason why the earthquake happened
In net terms, 2017 Labour voters didn't vote for Boris or the Conservatives. They voted for Labour (obviously), the Lib Dems or didn't vote at all. The Conservatives barely added any votes.
It's possible there is churn - eg Labour voters moved to the Conservatives in some constituencies, while Conservatives moved to Labour in others - but we would have to drill down into the constituencies to see if that's the case.
Didn't Thrasher say that 40% of voters have changed the party they voted for in the last three elections? So I don't think this "stay at home" analysis is right, and could be very misleading.
I'm going on raw vote numbers. The Conservatives remained essentially the same, although a large part of its 2017 vote did a round trip to Brexit Party and back. Labour lost votes to the Lib Dems and lost votes in absolute terms. Presumably the latter stayed at home. How this distributes over the constituencies is interesting. The one thing we can say is that there wasn't a big move of votes from Labour to the Conservatives unless there were two trends cancelling each other out, where one of those trends was a switch from Conservative to Labour.
I suspect most of the Labour to Tory switches happened before 2017. There might be more ahead of the next election.
Blyth valley - it'll be more complex than this but simplest numbers that work
3394 to Brexit Party 1631 Labour voters from last time stayed at home 1585 switched to the Tories 228 to Green 204 to Lib Dems
That looks right; said similar to Mrs C on the night, without the maths. So when Brexit is done, could be around 5000 more Labour votes. And the Tory majority was 700 or so. Assumes none of the 5000 have died, of course. And, are there any new estates being built in the area?
I don't think one can assume those stay at home/Brexit are sailing back to Labour, much depends on the next 5 years.
Ynys Mon was a funny one. Looks to me - and I know it's possible to wildly misinterpret these things - like voters switching from LD to Con after the LDs stood down in favour of PC. Which - admitedly from the perapective of 100 miles eastwards - is entirely understandable: in North Wales terms, in the absence of a LD candidate, Con would appear to be the nearest thing. But just goes to show: you can't shufflevoters around like counters on a gane board. Arguably the Remain Alliance led to a net gain of - 1 Remainers.
Ydoethur said very much the same on a previous page. There's always been a residual Conservative vote, I suspect. Church vs Chapel.
One point about Swinson, which ought to be more appreciated by Tories taking the piss out of her this week, is that her possibly hubristic gamble in forcing a snap election more or less single-handedly guaranteed we would not get Brexit plus Corbyn.
Do we have any stronger clue on precisely when this will be happening? Has Corbyn announced a departure date?
Fantastic job in the Fantasy Election league !
Wither the May resignation betting farce
Thank you! I see you cleared the 200k mark also, very good stuff. From a betting perspective the irony is I enjoy this high but worry it will make me overconfident for the Labour Leadership market. Am feeling very good about my London 2020 book too (Khan to win, Bailey to come 2nd, Stewart to get under 20%).
Yes, you can get 3/1 at Skybet that Bailey 'Wins without Khan'. 3/1! I think it may be the biggest pricing error of the year, I really do.
What is clear is that whilst Corbyn was the ultimate reason for Labour's heavy defeat, it is the post-2010 Labour that has been failing to win voters back for years. So many of these seats have been trending away from Labour for nine years.
Labour needs to get out of London urgently. They've failed badly with two posh London leaders (albeit Ed was representing Doncaster) and it's clear this strategy is not working.
The Momentum group is what signifies everything people seem to hate about Labour and they need to go. Labour's PR and leadership teams need to go.
Labour needs a rebrand, a decisive break with the last nine years.
I still believe that with the Tories tacking to the left on certain policies, Labour can offer a 2017-light package of something like ending austerity, managing tuition fees, fixing the railways, investment and come back to win. But they need a patriotic leader, somebody who people believe will defend the country, somebody from their communities who is prepared to listen.
Labour needs to break with Brexit and accept it's happened and not challenge it further, this signifies again everything people have left Labour for since 2010 and beyond.
What Labour needs is an Attlee or a Blair. Labour needs to look ready for Government next year, not in five years. Labour has a decent length of time to really win back these voters.
If Labour isn't prepared to listen, wake up and learn these lessons, the very people that so need a Labour Government are going to be failed. Pragmatism trumps ideology.
And I will leave you with this: Boris Johnson managed to convince Labour seats that over the last nine years of Tory Government, the real change they need is Tory Government. Labour needs to figure out how the hell this has happened.
And I will leave you with this: Boris Johnson managed to convince Labour seats that over the last nine years of Tory Government, the real change they need is Tory Government. Labour needs to figure out how the hell this has happened.
The paradox is, they were in safe Labour seats and therefore dispensable. Now they're in Tory marginals their lot might improve a little. We'll see...
Blyth valley - it'll be more complex than this but simplest numbers that work
3394 to Brexit Party 1631 Labour voters from last time stayed at home 1585 switched to the Tories 228 to Green 204 to Lib Dems
That looks right; said similar to Mrs C on the night, without the maths. So when Brexit is done, could be around 5000 more Labour votes. And the Tory majority was 700 or so. Assumes none of the 5000 have died, of course. And, are there any new estates being built in the area?
I don't think one can assume those stay at home/Brexit are sailing back to Labour, much depends on the next 5 years.
Of course. I'm told adultery results in less conscience problems the more one does it.
Emphasis the "I'm told' of course. I wouldn't know.
Watching vox pops on TV last night on how the red wall voted Tory I was struck by two thoughts:
1) How really angry many of the white working class were at being labelled thick racists because they voted for BREXIT. Many stand up comedians should take note of this.
2) How perceptive many of those interviewed were about Corbyn and what he stood for and how they saw through him in a way that many of my University educated friends haven't.
Do we have any stronger clue on precisely when this will be happening? Has Corbyn announced a departure date?
Fantastic job in the Fantasy Election league !
Wither the May resignation betting farce
Thank you! I see you cleared the 200k mark also, very good stuff. From a betting perspective the irony is I enjoy this high but worry it will make me overconfident for the Labour Leadership market. Am feeling very good about my London 2020 book too (Khan to win, Bailey to come 2nd, Stewart to get under 20%).
Yes, you can get 3/1 at Skybet that Bailey 'Wins without Khan'. 3/1! I think it may be the biggest pricing error of the year, I really do.
Cheers I've taken the £8.33 they've allowed me on that and added £125 to my Khan position at 1.40.
Kensington, Finchley and Cities results though very unseemly will reinforce the Lib/Lab animosity in the capital.
Right, I'm on Lisa Nandy for next Labour leader. It has to be aomeone who can talk Northern Leave - Len McCluskey says so. It has to be a woman, because identity politics. It has to be someone who isn't a blithering idiot, because surely it has to be? Therefore Nandy. 10 to 1, which seems to me value if not outstanding value, but I'm on for the fun of being right when it happens rather than the vast profits which might accrue from my £5 stake.
And watching the Remain establishment quietly review, adjust and retain their positions in the new reality will be wondrous to behold.
The people who will have to implement Brexit and try to make it work will mostly be people who didn't vote for it, it is true. You probably see that as a conspiracy, I think it's more a case of pragmatic and well educated people generally being against Brexit. Anyway, the Remain ship has sailed, in a few years we will know whether Brexit was a good idea or not. As HYUFD rightly notes, if we rejoin it won't be for a couple of decades.
The Remain ship sailed in 2016. There has been marked lack of reality from all sides ever since. The debate once the grinding reality of Brexit sinks in will be about how we adapt to our satellite status. given the rationale for Brexit was taking back control.
I've been campaigning, at one level or another, for EEC/EU membership since about 1970. I really wanted us to a proud and useful part of something. Now we're back to satellite again and I don't suppose it will change for better in my lifetime. However, I still live in hope!
I don't think internationalism is dead but needs to be fought for. I am hopeful that our young people will work it out. It's their world. Brexit was something imposed on them; they very sensibly didn't vote for it.
I'm not, she tried to unseat a very popular MP when she could have gone to Harrow West and hit Labour much harder there. Our candidate was useless and I think a lot of our voters would have backed her there. But Brexit seems to rule all with the Lib Dems and they decided that going for an unwinnable Tory seat in Finchley would be better than going for a winnable Labour one.
Harrow had one of the most extraordinary results. The East swung 6% to the Conservative incumbent while the West shifted a further 4% to Labour. Clearly, your view of Mr Ali (the Tory there) was widely shared.
And I will leave you with this: Boris Johnson managed to convince Labour seats that over the last nine years of Tory Government, the real change they need is Tory Government. Labour needs to figure out how the hell this has happened.
The paradox is, they were in safe Labour seats and therefore dispensable. Now they're in Tory marginals their lot might improve a little. We'll see...
Labour needs to work hard to win these people back.
Their one ray of hope is that the Tory victory in these seats was exaggerated by Labour voters going to BXP or staying at home. They have a decent pool of voters in which to pull back - but they need to work hard to do it.
Do we have any stronger clue on precisely when this will be happening? Has Corbyn announced a departure date?
Fantastic job in the Fantasy Election league !
Wither the May resignation betting farce
Thank you! I see you cleared the 200k mark also, very good stuff. From a betting perspective the irony is I enjoy this high but worry it will make me overconfident for the Labour Leadership market. Am feeling very good about my London 2020 book too (Khan to win, Bailey to come 2nd, Stewart to get under 20%).
Yes, you can get 3/1 at Skybet that Bailey 'Wins without Khan'. 3/1! I think it may be the biggest pricing error of the year, I really do.
Boris fighting hard for Bailey could yet be a factor.
"Vote for the best man for the job since...well, me!"
Has anyone done some analysis on the seats the Tories took and how many of them would be won back by Labour if BXP and the voters that stayed at home this time came back to them?
The choice of new Labour leader will depend significantly on the voting membership criteria adopted. If ex-members and supporters like myself can join and vote even after the ballot is declared then a moderate has a chance. I suspect the hard-left know this and will use their current majority to change the rules.
Great summary, broadly agree on most. Not sure why McDonnell is not being considered (110 on betfair), he seems head and shoulders above the other Corbynistas so if that part of the party is to retain control why not him rather than Pidcock, Burgon, Butler, RLB etc?
1) He’s in his late 60s.
2) He has a heart condition
3) He has a back story that makes Corbyn look a model of probity
4) He’s a nasty bully whom almost everyone in Labour hates (unlike Corbyn, it should be noted)
Against that
5) He’s brighter than every other member of the Shadow Cabinet put together.
I’m sure Nick Palmer will be along soon to claim that he’s a terribly nice and misunderstood chap and nurses abandoned kittens in his spare time.
Has anyone done some analysis on the seats the Tories took and how many of them would be won back by Labour if BXP and the voters that stayed at home this time came back to them?
You'd have to make assumptions about just how many Labour voters stayed at home, where they are, and how the BXP vote would behave. You can't simply lump all BXP voters in those seats back to Labour (see UKIP and the Tories).
Ynys Mon was a funny one. Looks to me - and I know it's possible to wildly misinterpret these things - like voters switching from LD to Con after the LDs stood down in favour of PC. Which - admitedly from the perapective of 100 miles eastwards - is entirely understandable: in North Wales terms, in the absence of a LD candidate, Con would appear to be the nearest thing. But just goes to show: you can't shufflevoters around like counters on a gane board. Arguably the Remain Alliance led to a net gain of - 1 Remainers.
Ydoethur said very much the same on a previous page. There's always been a residual Conservative vote, I suspect. Church vs Chapel.
Looking at the 2011 census, about 30-40% of the population of Ynys Mon who live along the coast were born in England, (with small parts in excess of 50%). Given that the age profile of Anglesey is older than average, and that according to the Ft Anglesey is the poorest part of Wales, my guess is that they are mostly retired people, who tend to vote conservative ... and not plaid!
What is clear is that whilst Corbyn was the ultimate reason for Labour's heavy defeat, it is the post-2010 Labour that has been failing to win voters back for years. So many of these seats have been trending away from Labour for nine years.
Labour needs to get out of London urgently. They've failed badly with two posh London leaders (albeit Ed was representing Doncaster) and it's clear this strategy is not working.
The Momentum group is what signifies everything people seem to hate about Labour and they need to go. Labour's PR and leadership teams need to go.
Labour needs a rebrand, a decisive break with the last nine years.
I still believe that with the Tories tacking to the left on certain policies, Labour can offer a 2017-light package of something like ending austerity, managing tuition fees, fixing the railways, investment and come back to win. But they need a patriotic leader, somebody who people believe will defend the country, somebody from their communities who is prepared to listen.
Labour needs to break with Brexit and accept it's happened and not challenge it further, this signifies again everything people have left Labour for since 2010 and beyond.
What Labour needs is an Attlee or a Blair. Labour needs to look ready for Government next year, not in five years. Labour has a decent length of time to really win back these voters.
If Labour isn't prepared to listen, wake up and learn these lessons, the very people that so need a Labour Government are going to be failed. Pragmatism trumps ideology.
And I will leave you with this: Boris Johnson managed to convince Labour seats that over the last nine years of Tory Government, the real change they need is Tory Government. Labour needs to figure out how the hell this has happened.
Great analysis Horse - agree with every word of that.
Great summary, broadly agree on most. Not sure why McDonnell is not being considered (110 on betfair), he seems head and shoulders above the other Corbynistas so if that part of the party is to retain control why not him rather than Pidcock, Burgon, Butler, RLB etc?
1) He’s in his late 60s.
2) He has a heart condition
3) He has a back story that makes Corbyn look a model of probity
4) He’s a nasty bully whom almost everyone in Labour hates (unlike Corbyn, it should be noted)
Against that
5) He’s brighter than every other member of the Shadow Cabinet put together.
I’m sure Nick Palmer will be along soon to claim that he’s a terribly nice and misunderstood chap and nurses abandoned kittens in his spare time.
Don’t recall his claiming that about McDonnell, although he has of Corbyn.
Great summary, broadly agree on most. Not sure why McDonnell is not being considered (110 on betfair), he seems head and shoulders above the other Corbynistas so if that part of the party is to retain control why not him rather than Pidcock, Burgon, Butler, RLB etc?
1) He’s in his late 60s.
2) He has a heart condition
3) He has a back story that makes Corbyn look a model of probity
4) He’s a nasty bully whom almost everyone in Labour hates (unlike Corbyn, it should be noted)
Against that
5) He’s brighter than every other member of the Shadow Cabinet put together.
I’m sure Nick Palmer will be along soon to claim that he’s a terribly nice and misunderstood chap and nurses abandoned kittens in his spare time.
Setting aside the mockery, I’m curious as to what Nick thinks might be the way ahead.
Do we have any stronger clue on precisely when this will be happening? Has Corbyn announced a departure date?
Fantastic job in the Fantasy Election league !
Wither the May resignation betting farce
Thank you! I see you cleared the 200k mark also, very good stuff. From a betting perspective the irony is I enjoy this high but worry it will make me overconfident for the Labour Leadership market. Am feeling very good about my London 2020 book too (Khan to win, Bailey to come 2nd, Stewart to get under 20%).
Yes, you can get 3/1 at Skybet that Bailey 'Wins without Khan'. 3/1! I think it may be the biggest pricing error of the year, I really do.
Boris fighting hard for Bailey could yet be a factor.
"Vote for the best man for the job since...well, me!"
Not sure the Get Brexit Done line will have quite the same potency....
Has anyone done some analysis on the seats the Tories took and how many of them would be won back by Labour if BXP and the voters that stayed at home this time came back to them?
Blyth valley - it'll be more complex than this but simplest numbers that work
3394 to Brexit Party 1631 Labour voters from last time stayed at home 1585 switched to the Tories 228 to Green 204 to Lib Dems
That looks right; said similar to Mrs C on the night, without the maths. So when Brexit is done, could be around 5000 more Labour votes. And the Tory majority was 700 or so. Assumes none of the 5000 have died, of course. And, are there any new estates being built in the area?
Fuck me, you’re seriously calculating what you think might happen in an election 5 years from now. Are you out of your mind?
The reason I asked about the individual seats was because the UK-wide picture seems to be the Tories pretty much performed as per 2017, it's how badly Labour went down, losing 3 million votes, that made the Tory victory so large.
If Labour is able to get out of London, get out of the 2010s, get a patriotic and credible leader, dump Corbyn's team and look reasonable again, I wholeheartedly believe those 3 million voters can be won over again.
It will not be easy - but Labour can do it if it's prepared to listen. My fear so far is that they are not.
Ynys Mon was a funny one. Looks to me - and I know it's possible to wildly misinterpret these things - like voters switching from LD to Con after the LDs stood down in favour of PC. Which - admitedly from the perapective of 100 miles eastwards - is entirely understandable: in North Wales terms, in the absence of a LD candidate, Con would appear to be the nearest thing. But just goes to show: you can't shufflevoters around like counters on a gane board. Arguably the Remain Alliance led to a net gain of - 1 Remainers.
Ydoethur said very much the same on a previous page. There's always been a residual Conservative vote, I suspect. Church vs Chapel.
Looking at the 2011 census, about 30-40% of the population of Ynys Mon who live along the coast were born in England, (with small parts in excess of 50%). Given that the age profile of Anglesey is older than average, and that according to the Ft Anglesey is the poorest part of Wales, my guess is that they are mostly retired people, who tend to vote conservative ... and not plaid!
It is of course also true - to slightly argue against my earlier post - that the North Wales Coast is a good place to retire to. It’s beautiful, has good transport links, and it’s very cheap to live there. I bought my house off a man who was retiring to Rhyl.
As against that, public services especially hospitals are not great.
The reason I asked about the individual seats was because the UK-wide picture seems to be the Tories pretty much performed as per 2017, it's how badly Labour went down, losing 3 million votes, that made the Tory victory so large.
If Labour is able to get out of London, get out of the 2010s, get a patriotic and credible leader, dump Corbyn's team and look reasonable again, I wholeheartedly believe those 3 million voters can be won over again.
It will not be easy - but Labour can do it if it's prepared to listen. My fear so far is that they are not.
Ynys Mon was a funny one. Looks to me - and I know it's possible to wildly misinterpret these things - like voters switching from LD to Con after the LDs stood down in favour of PC. Which - admitedly from the perapective of 100 miles eastwards - is entirely understandable: in North Wales terms, in the absence of a LD candidate, Con would appear to be the nearest thing. But just goes to show: you can't shufflevoters around like counters on a gane board. Arguably the Remain Alliance led to a net gain of - 1 Remainers.
Ydoethur said very much the same on a previous page. There's always been a residual Conservative vote, I suspect. Church vs Chapel.
Looking at the 2011 census, about 30-40% of the population of Ynys Mon who live along the coast were born in England, (with small parts in excess of 50%). Given that the age profile of Anglesey is older than average, and that according to the Ft Anglesey is the poorest part of Wales, my guess is that they are mostly retired people, who tend to vote conservative ... and not plaid!
Indeed. There are significant numbers of second homes there. IIRC it's considered a problem.
Looking at the 2011 census, about 30-40% of the population of Ynys Mon who live along the coast were born in England, (with small parts in excess of 50%). Given that the age profile of Anglesey is older than average, and that according to the Ft Anglesey is the poorest part of Wales, my guess is that they are mostly retired people, who tend to vote conservative ... and not plaid!
Plaid need to ask themselves some hard questions. Aside from the superb performance in Ceredigion, they did not have a great election when Labour were on the ropes.
Also, while Labour's results in N Wales were Godawful, Labour's results in S Wales were very respectable, just down one, with Bridgend falling.
The Tories did not even re-take the seats they lost in 2017, Cardiff N and Gwyr.
Is South Wales the only part of the country that had more Tory seats in 2015 than in 2019?
There may not be a Red Wall, but there are still Red Valleys.
Blyth valley - it'll be more complex than this but simplest numbers that work
3394 to Brexit Party 1631 Labour voters from last time stayed at home 1585 switched to the Tories 228 to Green 204 to Lib Dems
That looks right; said similar to Mrs C on the night, without the maths. So when Brexit is done, could be around 5000 more Labour votes. And the Tory majority was 700 or so. Assumes none of the 5000 have died, of course. And, are there any new estates being built in the area?
Fuck me, you’re seriously calculating what you think might happen in an election 5 years from now. Are you out of your mind?
Calculating, but not seriously! And the traditional Tory supporters I bumped into in the pub last night and told I didn't think Corbyn was a dangerous lunatic thinks I am out of my mind!
Blyth valley - it'll be more complex than this but simplest numbers that work
3394 to Brexit Party 1631 Labour voters from last time stayed at home 1585 switched to the Tories 228 to Green 204 to Lib Dems
That looks right; said similar to Mrs C on the night, without the maths. So when Brexit is done, could be around 5000 more Labour votes. And the Tory majority was 700 or so. Assumes none of the 5000 have died, of course. And, are there any new estates being built in the area?
Fuck me, you’re seriously calculating what you think might happen in an election 5 years from now. Are you out of your mind?
"According to my last psych-evaluation, yes!" - John Malkovich in Con Air.
Ynys Mon was a funny one. Looks to me - and I know it's possible to wildly misinterpret these things - like voters switching from LD to Con after the LDs stood down in favour of PC. Which - admitedly from the perapective of 100 miles eastwards - is entirely understandable: in North Wales terms, in the absence of a LD candidate, Con would appear to be the nearest thing. But just goes to show: you can't shufflevoters around like counters on a gane board. Arguably the Remain Alliance led to a net gain of - 1 Remainers.
Ydoethur said very much the same on a previous page. There's always been a residual Conservative vote, I suspect. Church vs Chapel.
Looking at the 2011 census, about 30-40% of the population of Ynys Mon who live along the coast were born in England, (with small parts in excess of 50%). Given that the age profile of Anglesey is older than average, and that according to the Ft Anglesey is the poorest part of Wales, my guess is that they are mostly retired people, who tend to vote conservative ... and not plaid!
Indeed. There are significant numbers of second homes there. IIRC it's considered a problem.
It is actually illegal to vote in a constituency that is not your main home (as I have to repeatedly remind the pb second-homers) -- though there is very little checking!
Do we have any stronger clue on precisely when this will be happening? Has Corbyn announced a departure date?
Fantastic job in the Fantasy Election league !
Wither the May resignation betting farce
Thank you! I see you cleared the 200k mark also, very good stuff. From a betting perspective the irony is I enjoy this high but worry it will make me overconfident for the Labour Leadership market. Am feeling very good about my London 2020 book too (Khan to win, Bailey to come 2nd, Stewart to get under 20%).
Yes, you can get 3/1 at Skybet that Bailey 'Wins without Khan'. 3/1! I think it may be the biggest pricing error of the year, I really do.
Boris fighting hard for Bailey could yet be a factor.
"Vote for the best man for the job since...well, me!"
Not sure the Get Brexit Done line will have quite the same potency....
There will be massive anti-Khan / Labour tactical voting.
Looking at the 2011 census, about 30-40% of the population of Ynys Mon who live along the coast were born in England, (with small parts in excess of 50%). Given that the age profile of Anglesey is older than average, and that according to the Ft Anglesey is the poorest part of Wales, my guess is that they are mostly retired people, who tend to vote conservative ... and not plaid!
Plaid need to ask themselves some hard questions. Aside from the superb performance in Ceredigion, they did not have a great election when Labour were on the ropes.
Also, while Labour's results in N Wales were Godawful, Labour's results in S Wales were very respectable, just down one, with Bridgend falling.
The Tories did not even re-take the seats they lost in 2017, Cardiff N and Gwyr.
Is South Wales the only part of the country that had more Tory seats in 2015 than in 2019?
There may not be a Red Wall, but there are still Red Valleys.
Must be the best Tory result in Ceredigion ever. Second homer/retirees again?
Blyth valley - it'll be more complex than this but simplest numbers that work
3394 to Brexit Party 1631 Labour voters from last time stayed at home 1585 switched to the Tories 228 to Green 204 to Lib Dems
That looks right; said similar to Mrs C on the night, without the maths. So when Brexit is done, could be around 5000 more Labour votes. And the Tory majority was 700 or so. Assumes none of the 5000 have died, of course. And, are there any new estates being built in the area?
Fuck me, you’re seriously calculating what you think might happen in an election 5 years from now. Are you out of your mind?
Also on Blyth, you can't underestimate how much demographic change there has been in the town in recent years. Massive new estates. Lots of young families whi can't afford a three bedroomed house in Newcastle but can in Blyth. Similar to lots of old mining towns (see also Leigh, Bolsover, Sherwood). For the last five or six GEs the old mining seats have outperformed UNS for the Conservatives - but at first most of them were so monolithic that noone noticed. Areas like this have been changing for decades. It's not all down to gnarled ex-miners changing the habits of a lifetime.
This isn't really staggering. We know the young, without assets, vote Labour; and the old, with assets, vote Conservative. Similarly, if, in the 70s, you mapped social class by vote you'd get entirely blue maps at one end of the spectrum and entirely red maps at the other. There is nothing inherently left-leaning about Manchester Central or righ-leaning about Eddisbury, apart from the differing demographic and socio--economic profiles of the two electorates.
The reason I asked about the individual seats was because the UK-wide picture seems to be the Tories pretty much performed as per 2017, it's how badly Labour went down, losing 3 million votes, that made the Tory victory so large.
If Labour is able to get out of London, get out of the 2010s, get a patriotic and credible leader, dump Corbyn's team and look reasonable again, I wholeheartedly believe those 3 million voters can be won over again.
It will not be easy - but Labour can do it if it's prepared to listen. My fear so far is that they are not.
Unfortunately, five hypotheticals is a bad start.
Which is why it's going to be a tough, tough task. But I'd rather they try and make inroads at least in some of those - it seems at the moment many are not prepared to listen.
Looking at the 2011 census, about 30-40% of the population of Ynys Mon who live along the coast were born in England, (with small parts in excess of 50%). Given that the age profile of Anglesey is older than average, and that according to the Ft Anglesey is the poorest part of Wales, my guess is that they are mostly retired people, who tend to vote conservative ... and not plaid!
Plaid need to ask themselves some hard questions. Aside from the superb performance in Ceredigion, they did not have a great election when Labour were on the ropes.
Also, while Labour's results in N Wales were Godawful, Labour's results in S Wales were very respectable, just down one, with Bridgend falling.
The Tories did not even re-take the seats they lost in 2017, Cardiff N and Gwyr.
Is South Wales the only part of the country that had more Tory seats in 2015 than in 2019?
There may not be a Red Wall, but there are still Red Valleys.
Must be the best Tory result in Ceredigion ever. Second homer/retirees again?
I think llef made the perceptive point that once the Libdems lost second place, they probably aren't coming back anytime soon in Ceredigion. Its future is a Plaid/Tory marginal.
In fact, it may be the end of the road for the LibDems in Wales -- let's see if the rather dim Kirsty Williams can hold B&R in the Senedd elections. She is the last woman standing.
Because the LibDems are not really a party that has anything to say to rural Wales (or the rural English South West, another former stronghold).
The UK's problem is not that it needs a London Independence Party (vide Meeks).
Its problem is it already has two London Independence Parties -- Labour and the LibDems. That is why the UK is likely doomed.
Blyth valley - it'll be more complex than this but simplest numbers that work
3394 to Brexit Party 1631 Labour voters from last time stayed at home 1585 switched to the Tories 228 to Green 204 to Lib Dems
That looks right; said similar to Mrs C on the night, without the maths. So when Brexit is done, could be around 5000 more Labour votes. And the Tory majority was 700 or so. Assumes none of the 5000 have died, of course. And, are there any new estates being built in the area?
Fuck me, you’re seriously calculating what you think might happen in an election 5 years from now. Are you out of your mind?
Also on Blyth, you can't underestimate how much demographic change there has been in the town in recent years. Massive new estates. Lots of young families whi can't afford a three bedroomed house in Newcastle but can in Blyth. Similar to lots of old mining towns (see also Leigh, Bolsover, Sherwood). For the last five or six GEs the old mining seats have outperformed UNS for the Conservatives - but at first most of them were so monolithic that noone noticed. Areas like this have been changing for decades. It's not all down to gnarled ex-miners changing the habits of a lifetime.
Yes, I got a bit fed up with the 'Bolsover! Get your head around that! Bolsover! Bolsover!' tweets. As was noted on here often, it's been trending away from Labour for many years and had reached tipping point.
I think one part of the fallout from this election has to be a review of how the broadcast media handles future election campaigns. With the advent of social media, the parties need the mainstream media less and less to get out their message and there is a danger they will just ignore it altogether if they think it is a hinderance rather than a help.
Boris ducked the Andrew Neil interview because he correctly calculated that there was far greater potential downside in doing it than there was downside in being seen to duck it. And, with hindsight, it was probably the right decision.
Look at the Andrew Marr/Boris Johnson interview, it was an attempted character assignation and we all knew it would be beforehand. If there is no upside in politicians in being able to put out their message in these interviews, what is in it for them to put themselves up to be shot at and be made the days "car crash" link on twitter?
We've already seen politicians largely cease to engage with the general public in the street for the same reasons, it will be bad for democracy if they also withdraw from mainstream media. To avoid this, the likes of BBC/Sky are going to have offer some sort of accommodation as they are no longer indispensable to political parties. Something like the first half of the interview being given over to the interviewee discussing whatever they want and the second half, the interviewer asking whatever they like. Without that, the likes of Burley/Marr/Neil etc are going to face a lot of empty chairs. The balance of power has shifted and the media need to respond.
Right now, I would guess that in 2024, no one will do an Andrew Neil interview given the impact.
Whoever is writing BoJo's speech in the NE is getting the tone spot on.
We are witnessing a moment in our political history that will define the next decade and beyond
Hopefully Boris will succeed in achieving good trade deals outside the EU and in time we may well see EU companies moving here to take advantage of these deals
The noises coming out of Europe and especially Germany is that their real worry is just how big a competitor we will become and the one person who has changed this narrative is of course Boris
As long as labour tear themselves apart Boris will have free run to do as he wishes
Whoever is writing BoJo's speech in the NE is getting the tone spot on.
We are witnessing a moment in our political history that will define the next decade and beyond
Hopefully Boris will succeed in achieving good trade deals outside the EU and in time we may well see EU companies moving here to take advantage of these deals
The noises coming out of Europe and especially Germany is their real worry as just how big a competitor we become and the one person to change this narrative is of course Boris
As long as labour tear themselves apart Boris will have free run to do as he wishes
My hope is that Rayner will compromise and move to the right, not further to the left.
If that means Momemtum and half the membership go, then so be it.
I think the Labour membership really does not appreciate the dire situation Labour is in. It needs to make changes quickly and prepare early for GE2024 if it wants to come back.
None of the parties should rush to a new direction. They can make working assumptions about broad components that will be in place at the next election, but those will need careful thought too.
The next election in Britain is likely to be fought at a time of continuing chronic economic underperformance, given the handicap Brexit will continue to place on Britain, Britain’s influence will have continued to vaporise, it having withdrawn from the first division of nations, and the country is likely to be still more divided, inward-looking and surly. The successful party is probably going to need to craft a positive message for people who have been let down yet again and who have lost all belief in promises. Getting that message is going to need careful thought.
Way too negative, and a bit bitter.
A new practical relationship with the EU will be forged and we will move on.
Actually, I agree with you here Casino. Boris looks to be in the move to compromise and reunite.
In non-political matters, I see from an older thread that have decided to move on from Crossrail. One of the best pieces of professional advice I have ever had (from a Tory friend, as it happens) is that you can ride lots of stuff out, but once you lose enthusiasm for your core job, you must move on. I have always applied that test and it’s worked for me.
55% of social security spending goes on state pension, tripled locked to ensure grows faster than the rest of the country. Which is the party of the client state in 2019?
Whoever is writing BoJo's speech in the NE is getting the tone spot on.
We are witnessing a moment in our political history that will define the next decade and beyond
Hopefully Boris will succeed in achieving good trade deals outside the EU and in time we may well see EU companies moving here to take advantage of these deals
The noises coming out of Europe and especially Germany is their real worry as just how big a competitor we become and the one person to change this narrative is of course Boris
As long as labour tear themselves apart Boris will have free run to do as he wishes
Calm down. It's only day 2.
Nothing to calm down about to be honest. This is the new reality
Brexit will be an issue that will quickly be "solved" in January, in 2024 it will presumably have almost completely disappeared.
Johnson has a lot of opportunity to succeed for the Northern seats he has just won - but he also has a lot of opportunities to fail.
I really hope he does some good and these communities are rescued after nine years of awful austerity - but my gut feeling is that post Brexit very little will change for them. That is why Labour needs to get on and do something about it.
Whoever is writing BoJo's speech in the NE is getting the tone spot on.
We are witnessing a moment in our political history that will define the next decade and beyond
Hopefully Boris will succeed in achieving good trade deals outside the EU and in time we may well see EU companies moving here to take advantage of these deals
The noises coming out of Europe and especially Germany is their real worry as just how big a competitor we become and the one person to change this narrative is of course Boris
As long as labour tear themselves apart Boris will have free run to do as he wishes
Calm down. It's only day 2.
Nothing to calm down about to be honest. This is the new reality
I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself, this is similar to a "new dawn" after Brexit. Give it a year and see how things are going then. If it's fantastic then you'll be free to say you told me so.
If there's another recession in the next five years which seems feasible to me (I bloody hope not), the Tories are going to own it. And really the same with everything now. These are all their messes or successes to make, they have nobody else to blame now if things go wrong.
My hope is that Rayner will compromise and move to the right, not further to the left.
If that means Momemtum and half the membership go, then so be it.
I think the Labour membership really does not appreciate the dire situation Labour is in. It needs to make changes quickly and prepare early for GE2024 if it wants to come back.
She'd have to get elected first. She needs the vote of sufficient Momentumites to beat RLB. There aren't enough votes from the soft left rightwards.
Looking at the 2011 census, about 30-40% of the population of Ynys Mon who live along the coast were born in England, (with small parts in excess of 50%). Given that the age profile of Anglesey is older than average, and that according to the Ft Anglesey is the poorest part of Wales, my guess is that they are mostly retired people, who tend to vote conservative ... and not plaid!
Plaid need to ask themselves some hard questions. Aside from the superb performance in Ceredigion, they did not have a great election when Labour were on the ropes.
Also, while Labour's results in N Wales were Godawful, Labour's results in S Wales were very respectable, just down one, with Bridgend falling.
The Tories did not even re-take the seats they lost in 2017, Cardiff N and Gwyr.
Is South Wales the only part of the country that had more Tory seats in 2015 than in 2019?
There may not be a Red Wall, but there are still Red Valleys.
your post makes me think of "A Welsh Landscape" by RS Thomas
... There is no present in Wales, And no future; There is only the past, Brittle with relics, Wind-bitten towers and castles With sham ghosts; Mouldering quarries and mines; And an impotent people, Sick with inbreeding, Worrying the carcase of an old song.
My hope is that Rayner will compromise and move to the right, not further to the left.
If that means Momemtum and half the membership go, then so be it.
I think the Labour membership really does not appreciate the dire situation Labour is in. It needs to make changes quickly and prepare early for GE2024 if it wants to come back.
She'd have to get elected first. She needs the vote of sufficient Momentumites to beat RLB. There aren't enough votes from the soft left rightwards.
40% of the membership voted against Corbyn in 2016, it's possible (I hope) that the many that left under Corbyn might return.
I intend to join for the first time to vote for the non-Corbynite candidate.
Do you think it will be 1v1 or many candidates as per 2015?
My hope is that Rayner will compromise and move to the right, not further to the left.
If that means Momemtum and half the membership go, then so be it.
I think the Labour membership really does not appreciate the dire situation Labour is in. It needs to make changes quickly and prepare early for GE2024 if it wants to come back.
Labour need thousands of new centre left members to overpower momentum
My hope is that Rayner will compromise and move to the right, not further to the left.
If that means Momemtum and half the membership go, then so be it.
I think the Labour membership really does not appreciate the dire situation Labour is in. It needs to make changes quickly and prepare early for GE2024 if it wants to come back.
Labour need thousands of new centre left members to overpower momentum
I hope for the sake of the country these people join then.
My hope is that Rayner will compromise and move to the right, not further to the left.
If that means Momemtum and half the membership go, then so be it.
I think the Labour membership really does not appreciate the dire situation Labour is in. It needs to make changes quickly and prepare early for GE2024 if it wants to come back.
She'd have to get elected first. She needs the vote of sufficient Momentumites to beat RLB. There aren't enough votes from the soft left rightwards.
40% of the membership voted against Corbyn in 2016, it's possible (I hope) that the many that left under Corbyn might return.
I intend to join for the first time to vote for the non-Corbynite candidate.
Do you think it will be 1v1 or many candidates as per 2015?
Im thinking about joining and not Labour at all, but think its essential to have a decent LOTO.
Whoever is writing BoJo's speech in the NE is getting the tone spot on.
We are witnessing a moment in our political history that will define the next decade and beyond
Hopefully Boris will succeed in achieving good trade deals outside the EU and in time we may well see EU companies moving here to take advantage of these deals
The noises coming out of Europe and especially Germany is their real worry as just how big a competitor we become and the one person to change this narrative is of course Boris
As long as labour tear themselves apart Boris will have free run to do as he wishes
Calm down. It's only day 2.
Nothing to calm down about to be honest. This is the new reality
I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself, this is similar to a "new dawn" after Brexit. Give it a year and see how things are going then. If it's fantastic then you'll be free to say you told me so.
If there's another recession in the next five years which seems feasible to me (I bloody hope not), the Tories are going to own it. And really the same with everything now. These are all their messes or successes to make, they have nobody else to blame now if things go wrong.
While Boris did little to deserve his mini-landslide in my view, it does at least mean that the old bogeypeople of Gina Miller, Grieve, Bercow, Phil Hammond etc. have been finally exorcized. At last we have an environment where the government and its supporters have absolutely no one else to blame for anything. I'm looking ahead to this age of responsibility with expectation and delight.
Whoever is writing BoJo's speech in the NE is getting the tone spot on.
We are witnessing a moment in our political history that will define the next decade and beyond
Hopefully Boris will succeed in achieving good trade deals outside the EU and in time we may well see EU companies moving here to take advantage of these deals
The noises coming out of Europe and especially Germany is their real worry as just how big a competitor we become and the one person to change this narrative is of course Boris
As long as labour tear themselves apart Boris will have free run to do as he wishes
Calm down. It's only day 2.
Nothing to calm down about to be honest. This is the new reality
I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself, this is similar to a "new dawn" after Brexit. Give it a year and see how things are going then. If it's fantastic then you'll be free to say you told me so.
If there's another recession in the next five years which seems feasible to me (I bloody hope not), the Tories are going to own it. And really the same with everything now. These are all their messes or successes to make, they have nobody else to blame now if things go wrong.
No CHC. I would never tell you I told you so. It is not in my nature to be so arrogant
I expect to see growing investment in the UK and Boris to steer a course that sets us into a new bright future away from all the doom and gloom
Brexit as a narrative is over and we will be out of the EU forging a new future. I am very confident for the future of our country and even more confident Scotland will not leave
Comments
Arguably the Remain Alliance led to a net gain of - 1 Remainers.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7791905/People-didnt-trust-country-Ex-Labour-MP-Anna-Turley-blasts-Jeremy-Corbyn.html
3394 to Brexit Party
1631 Labour voters from last time stayed at home
1585 switched to the Tories
228 to Green
204 to Lib Dems
Wither the May resignation betting farce
So when Brexit is done, could be around 5000 more Labour votes. And the Tory majority was 700 or so.
Assumes none of the 5000 have died, of course. And, are there any new estates being built in the area?
What is clear is that whilst Corbyn was the ultimate reason for Labour's heavy defeat, it is the post-2010 Labour that has been failing to win voters back for years. So many of these seats have been trending away from Labour for nine years.
Labour needs to get out of London urgently. They've failed badly with two posh London leaders (albeit Ed was representing Doncaster) and it's clear this strategy is not working.
The Momentum group is what signifies everything people seem to hate about Labour and they need to go. Labour's PR and leadership teams need to go.
Labour needs a rebrand, a decisive break with the last nine years.
I still believe that with the Tories tacking to the left on certain policies, Labour can offer a 2017-light package of something like ending austerity, managing tuition fees, fixing the railways, investment and come back to win. But they need a patriotic leader, somebody who people believe will defend the country, somebody from their communities who is prepared to listen.
Labour needs to break with Brexit and accept it's happened and not challenge it further, this signifies again everything people have left Labour for since 2010 and beyond.
What Labour needs is an Attlee or a Blair. Labour needs to look ready for Government next year, not in five years. Labour has a decent length of time to really win back these voters.
If Labour isn't prepared to listen, wake up and learn these lessons, the very people that so need a Labour Government are going to be failed. Pragmatism trumps ideology.
And I will leave you with this: Boris Johnson managed to convince Labour seats that over the last nine years of Tory Government, the real change they need is Tory Government. Labour needs to figure out how the hell this has happened.
I suspect most of the Labour to Tory switches happened before 2017. There might be more ahead of the next election.
If only for that, she is owed some gratitude.
Yes, you can get 3/1 at Skybet that Bailey 'Wins without Khan'. 3/1! I think it may be the biggest pricing error of the year, I really do.
Emphasis the "I'm told' of course. I wouldn't know.
https://twitter.com/ProfTomkins/status/1205464283070521349?s=20
1) How really angry many of the white working class were at being labelled thick racists because they voted for BREXIT. Many stand up comedians should take note of this.
2) How perceptive many of those interviewed were about Corbyn and what he stood for and how they saw through him in a way that many of my University educated friends haven't.
Kensington, Finchley and Cities results though very unseemly will reinforce the Lib/Lab animosity in the capital.
Their one ray of hope is that the Tory victory in these seats was exaggerated by Labour voters going to BXP or staying at home. They have a decent pool of voters in which to pull back - but they need to work hard to do it.
https://twitter.com/drmuig/status/1205796472194830336
https://twitter.com/lukeakehurst/status/1205822456235200512
"Vote for the best man for the job since...well, me!"
Jesus.
If Labour is able to get out of London, get out of the 2010s, get a patriotic and credible leader, dump Corbyn's team and look reasonable again, I wholeheartedly believe those 3 million voters can be won over again.
It will not be easy - but Labour can do it if it's prepared to listen. My fear so far is that they are not.
As against that, public services especially hospitals are not great.
Also, while Labour's results in N Wales were Godawful, Labour's results in S Wales were very respectable, just down one, with Bridgend falling.
The Tories did not even re-take the seats they lost in 2017, Cardiff N and Gwyr.
Is South Wales the only part of the country that had more Tory seats in 2015 than in 2019?
There may not be a Red Wall, but there are still Red Valleys.
There will be massive anti-Khan / Labour tactical voting.
HEALTH WARNING - this map is from 2017, not 2019. It has not yet been updated.
https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1205821623909175297
So going from a leader with his two A levels to a leader without any qualifications at all!
There is nothing inherently left-leaning about Manchester Central or righ-leaning about Eddisbury, apart from the differing demographic and socio--economic profiles of the two electorates.
It's her or Starmer who seem to not be wedded to Corbynism, I'm being pragmatic as possible. Perhaps one in the cabinet and one outside.
In fact, it may be the end of the road for the LibDems in Wales -- let's see if the rather dim Kirsty Williams can hold B&R in the Senedd elections. She is the last woman standing.
Because the LibDems are not really a party that has anything to say to rural Wales (or the rural English South West, another former stronghold).
The UK's problem is not that it needs a London Independence Party (vide Meeks).
Its problem is it already has two London Independence Parties -- Labour and the LibDems. That is why the UK is likely doomed.
Fake cartography!
I don't understand the enthusiasm for Kinnock Jr, and there is a lot of murk (some of it true) waiting for him if he stands.
Like Chuka in years gone by, my guess is he won't stand.
Boris ducked the Andrew Neil interview because he correctly calculated that there was far greater potential downside in doing it than there was downside in being seen to duck it. And, with hindsight, it was probably the right decision.
Look at the Andrew Marr/Boris Johnson interview, it was an attempted character assignation and we all knew it would be beforehand. If there is no upside in politicians in being able to put out their message in these interviews, what is in it for them to put themselves up to be shot at and be made the days "car crash" link on twitter?
We've already seen politicians largely cease to engage with the general public in the street for the same reasons, it will be bad for democracy if they also withdraw from mainstream media. To avoid this, the likes of BBC/Sky are going to have offer some sort of accommodation as they are no longer indispensable to political parties. Something like the first half of the interview being given over to the interviewee discussing whatever they want and the second half, the interviewer asking whatever they like. Without that, the likes of Burley/Marr/Neil etc are going to face a lot of empty chairs. The balance of power has shifted and the media need to respond.
Right now, I would guess that in 2024, no one will do an Andrew Neil interview given the impact.
Hopefully Boris will succeed in achieving good trade deals outside the EU and in time we may well see EU companies moving here to take advantage of these deals
The noises coming out of Europe and especially Germany is that their real worry is just how big a competitor we will become and the one person who has changed this narrative is of course Boris
As long as labour tear themselves apart Boris will have free run to do as he wishes
I think that we can rule out Starmer and Thornberry based on Len's comments and the Momentumite blamestorming.
If that means Momemtum and half the membership go, then so be it.
I think the Labour membership really does not appreciate the dire situation Labour is in. It needs to make changes quickly and prepare early for GE2024 if it wants to come back.
In non-political matters, I see from an older thread that have decided to move on from Crossrail. One of the best pieces of professional advice I have ever had (from a Tory friend, as it happens) is that you can ride lots of stuff out, but once you lose enthusiasm for your core job, you must move on. I have always applied that test and it’s worked for me.
Best of luck in your new endeavours.
Johnson has a lot of opportunity to succeed for the Northern seats he has just won - but he also has a lot of opportunities to fail.
I really hope he does some good and these communities are rescued after nine years of awful austerity - but my gut feeling is that post Brexit very little will change for them. That is why Labour needs to get on and do something about it.
If there's another recession in the next five years which seems feasible to me (I bloody hope not), the Tories are going to own it. And really the same with everything now. These are all their messes or successes to make, they have nobody else to blame now if things go wrong.
...
There is no present in Wales,
And no future;
There is only the past,
Brittle with relics,
Wind-bitten towers and castles
With sham ghosts;
Mouldering quarries and mines;
And an impotent people,
Sick with inbreeding,
Worrying the carcase of an old song.
I intend to join for the first time to vote for the non-Corbynite candidate.
Do you think it will be 1v1 or many candidates as per 2015?
How sale-able to the electorate do you think a potential PM is with zero educational qualifications?
I expect to see growing investment in the UK and Boris to steer a course that sets us into a new bright future away from all the doom and gloom
Brexit as a narrative is over and we will be out of the EU forging a new future. I am very confident for the future of our country and even more confident Scotland will not leave