I think my result of the night (though no one elses) was Mansfield. May only managed to take 4 bricks out the red wall in 2017. 2 had sub 1k majorities, 2 had sub 3k majorities going into this election. All now have majorities of 12,000 or more (Walsall South, Stoke South, NE Derbyshire and Mansfield). Ben Bradley has managed to turn a seat the Tories never won (came close in 1987) into a 16k majority with 64% of the vote.
It’s all rather incredible and must give CCHQ a lot of positivity that if they look after the red wall and listen to it then these people won’t go back to a Labour.
Have you done much analysis on whether these majorities were down to Labour voters staying at home or genuine switchers?
I remain broadly unconvinced that "get Brexit done" is going to be enough to keep these communities in the long run. But Labour needs to win them back rather than just assuming they'll come back.
I am pleased many of the Red Wall seats fell.
Because these constituencies & people have been ignored and taken for granted.
Even if the Tories do nothing, Labour -- for the first time in decades -- will have to think what these communities want, they will have to seal a new deal with these people.
And that is good.
I agree with you. But it has to be a real wake up call to Labour, they need to get real.
My only hope is that Burgon is the Corbynite candidate. He is somebody despised and thought to be rubbish even by Labour fans. Maybe that will kick at least some of them to be a bit less moronic
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset. Bad news for Labour - you think all those people who switched this election will automatically change back at the next one. I don't think they will. Especially so if Labour are mad enough to elect another Corbynista - which they will, by the way. The party membership will make that absolutely certain.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of moderation in your party.
A crushing defeat so richly deserved, which I thought was nigh on impossible (despite the evidence I was hearing from Dudley North) - but - it could have and really should have been much worse for Labour.
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky general too, it could be more than that.
Here's hoping
It took Labour 14 years & three leaders to recover from Michael Foot, they may well beat that record.
I expect we will hear that the main reason for the defeat was that voters didn't understand their Manifesto, they did not explain it clearly enough or that it was not Socialist enough. A repeat of the Foot excuses.
Of those 8 things you list 1 is the de facto position at the moment (railways), 6 of them are effectively the same as Boris' policies and 1 (tuition fees) will be dealt with when (as I expect) Boris reduces interest rates on tuition fees as part of the implementation of the review of HE finances.
You did remember to vote Tory, didn't you?
You think Johnson will tackle tuition fees? I highly doubt it.
Is it bad that these things are similar to what Johnson is proposing? I don't think Johnson will actually follow through on any of them - that's the point.
I'm sure Labour can do a bit more to differentiate itself - but the whole point was that the left has moved, Labour needs to realise that and understand it.
And Johnson isn't ending austerity, he's leaving the majority of the cuts in place.
I fully expect Boris to get tuition fees dealt with. And early on. See a few more of those red pimples get washed over by the soothing balm of a blue tide.
Let it sink in with a young generation - Boris is on your side. Leave Labour nothing more to offer.
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset. Bad news for Labour - you think all those people who switched this election will automatically change back at the next one. I don't think they will. Especially so if Labour are mad enough to elect another Corbynista - which they will, by the way. The party membership will make that absolutely certain.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of moderation in your party.
A crushing defeat so richly deserved, which I thought was nigh on impossible (despite the evidence I was hearing from Dudley North) - but - it could have and really should have been much worse for Labour.
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky general too, it could be more than that.
Here's hoping
It took Labour 14 years & three leaders to recover from Michael Foot, they may well beat that record.
I expect we will hear that the main reason for the defeat was that voters didn't understand their Manifesto, they did not explain it clearly enough or that it was not Socialist enough. A repeat of the Foot excuses.
And with Burgon in the leadership, it will give a whole new meaning to the phrase “first as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Can Burgon even put his own trousers on without help?
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset:
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset. Bad news for Labour - you think all those people who switched this election will automatically change back at the next one. I don't think they will. Especially so if Labour are mad enough to elect another Corbynista - which they will, by the way. The party membership will make that absolutely certain.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of moderation in your party.
A crushing defeat so richly deserved, which I thought was nigh on impossible (despite the evidence I was hearing from Dudley North) - but - it could have and really should have been much worse for Labour.
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky general too, it could be more than that.
Here's hoping
It took Labour 14 years & three leaders to recover from Michael Foot, they may well beat that record.
I expect we will hear that the main reason for the defeat was that voters didn't understand their Manifesto, they did not explain it clearly enough or that it was not Socialist enough. A repeat of the Foot excuses.
And with Burgon in the leadership, it will give a whole new meaning to the phrase “first as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Can Burgon even put his own trousers on without help?
I still want to know how he got into Cambridge. Is personation a problem at Oxbridge interviews? I turned up for mine, but I don’t know that I was typical.
Of those 8 things you list 1 is the de facto position at the moment (railways), 6 of them are effectively the same as Boris' policies and 1 (tuition fees) will be dealt with when (as I expect) Boris reduces interest rates on tuition fees as part of the implementation of the review of HE finances.
You did remember to vote Tory, didn't you?
You think Johnson will tackle tuition fees? I highly doubt it.
Is it bad that these things are similar to what Johnson is proposing? I don't think Johnson will actually follow through on any of them - that's the point.
I'm sure Labour can do a bit more to differentiate itself - but the whole point was that the left has moved, Labour needs to realise that and understand it.
And Johnson isn't ending austerity, he's leaving the majority of the cuts in place.
I fully expect Boris to get tuition fees dealt with. And early on. See a few more of those red pimples get washed over by the soothing balm of a blue tide.
Let it sink in with a young generation - Boris is on your side. Leave Labour nothing more to offer.
Hahahahahahaha, the young generation will never think Boris Johnson is on their side.
Ask me in five years whether it's changed. But I think the hopefulness here is almost as bad as the hope I felt before this election.
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset. Bad news for Labour - you think all those people who switched this election will automatically change back at the next one. I don't think they will. Especially so if Labour are mad enough to elect another Corbynista - which they will, by the way. The party membership will make that absolutely certain.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of moderation in your party.
A crushing defeat so richly deserved, which I thought was nigh on impossible (despite the evidence I was hearing from Dudley North) - but - it could have and really should have been much worse for Labour.
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky general too, it could be more than that.
Here's hoping
It took Labour 14 years & three leaders to recover from Michael Foot, they may well beat that record.
I expect we will hear that the main reason for the defeat was that voters didn't understand their Manifesto, they did not explain it clearly enough or that it was not Socialist enough. A repeat of the Foot excuses.
And with Burgon in the leadership, it will give a whole new meaning to the phrase “first as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Can Burgon even put his own trousers on without help?
I still want to know how he got into Cambridge. Is personation a problem at Oxbridge interviews? I turned up for mine, but I don’t know that I was typical.
Of those 8 things you list 1 is the de facto position at the moment (railways), 6 of them are effectively the same as Boris' policies and 1 (tuition fees) will be dealt with when (as I expect) Boris reduces interest rates on tuition fees as part of the implementation of the review of HE finances.
You did remember to vote Tory, didn't you?
You think Johnson will tackle tuition fees? I highly doubt it.
Is it bad that these things are similar to what Johnson is proposing? I don't think Johnson will actually follow through on any of them - that's the point.
I'm sure Labour can do a bit more to differentiate itself - but the whole point was that the left has moved, Labour needs to realise that and understand it.
And Johnson isn't ending austerity, he's leaving the majority of the cuts in place.
I fully expect Boris to get tuition fees dealt with. And early on. See a few more of those red pimples get washed over by the soothing balm of a blue tide.
Let it sink in with a young generation - Boris is on your side. Leave Labour nothing more to offer.
Hahahahahahaha, the young generation will never think Boris Johnson is on their side.
Ask me in five years whether it's changed. But I think the hopefulness here is almost as bad as the hope I felt before this election.
Probably not. But he isn’t likely to be fighting the next election either.
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset. Bad news for Labour - you think all those people who switched this election will automatically change back at the next one. I don't think they will. Especially so if Labour are mad enough to elect another Corbynista - which they will, by the way. The party membership will make that absolutely certain.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of moderation in your party.
A crushing defeat so richly deserved, which I thought was nigh on impossible (despite the evidence I was hearing from Dudley North) - but - it could have and really should have been much worse for Labour.
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky general too, it could be more than that.
Here's hoping
It took Labour 14 years & three leaders to recover from Michael Foot, they may well beat that record.
I expect we will hear that the main reason for the defeat was that voters didn't understand their Manifesto, they did not explain it clearly enough or that it was not Socialist enough. A repeat of the Foot excuses.
And with Burgon in the leadership, it will give a whole new meaning to the phrase “first as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Can Burgon even put his own trousers on without help?
I still want to know how he got into Cambridge. Is personation a problem at Oxbridge interviews? I turned up for mine, but I don’t know that I was typical.
If they let Diane Abbott and Nick Griffin in, why are you surprised by Burgon?
It's not the young generation Labour needs to worry about, it's those who they've just lost (3 million people) to the Tories, BXP or who couldn't be bothered to vote this time.
If they're putting up RLB and Burgon that tells me they have learned nothing.
If my friends are anything to go by, Corbynites are learning all the wrong lessons.
"What can we do? The voters are stupid. They don't want socialism. They want to be governed by the elite. Fuck the voters."
Oozing contempt for Britons.
I can see Labour deciding to go for purity rather than electability. They might be doomed. Heh.
I wonder if Boris has it in him to be brutal. Pour the help into those seats that voted for him. Those that voted Labour - twist in the breeze. Grimsby turned into the great arts centre of the north. With a fast rail link to London and freeport status.
The three seats in Hull that voted Labour get fuck all. They can look across the Humber with the words of Jim Bowen ringing in their ears. "Look at what you could have won...."
See if lessons get learned. "They fuck you up, your mum and dad who still vote Labour...."
Erm... this is the economic model that has failed these places. Arts Centre? Fast link to London? All that's doing is gentrifying and importing middle-class lefties. Why on earth would you want to do that?
Of those 8 things you list 1 is the de facto position at the moment (railways), 6 of them are effectively the same as Boris' policies and 1 (tuition fees) will be dealt with when (as I expect) Boris reduces interest rates on tuition fees as part of the implementation of the review of HE finances.
You did remember to vote Tory, didn't you?
You think Johnson will tackle tuition fees? I highly doubt it.
Is it bad that these things are similar to what Johnson is proposing? I don't think Johnson will actually follow through on any of them - that's the point.
I'm sure Labour can do a bit more to differentiate itself - but the whole point was that the left has moved, Labour needs to realise that and understand it.
And Johnson isn't ending austerity, he's leaving the majority of the cuts in place.
I fully expect Boris to get tuition fees dealt with. And early on. See a few more of those red pimples get washed over by the soothing balm of a blue tide.
Let it sink in with a young generation - Boris is on your side. Leave Labour nothing more to offer.
The worst part of the fees are the interest rates. Those should be linked to inflation, not at 4 or 5%.
Personally, I'd phase out the current system and have am extra tenth of a percent or whatever it is on the main and higher bands of income tax. There'd be no student debt at all, and you'd get a far higher contribution from higher earners. People going abroad would be difficult. Maybe if you aren't a UK taxpayer you pay the net of your loan and the payments you have already made through income tax.
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset. Bad news for Labour - you think all those people who switched this election will automatically change back at the next one. I don't think they will. Especially so if Labour are mad enough to elect another Corbynista - which they will, by the way. The party membership will make that absolutely certain.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of moderation in your party.
A crushing defeat so richly deserved, which I thought was nigh on impossible (despite the evidence I was hearing from Dudley North) - but - it could have and really should have been much worse for Labour.
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky general too, it could be more than that.
Here's hoping
It took Labour 14 years & three leaders to recover from Michael Foot, they may well beat that record.
I expect we will hear that the main reason for the defeat was that voters didn't understand their Manifesto, they did not explain it clearly enough or that it was not Socialist enough. A repeat of the Foot excuses.
And with Burgon in the leadership, it will give a whole new meaning to the phrase “first as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Can Burgon even put his own trousers on without help?
I still want to know how he got into Cambridge. Is personation a problem at Oxbridge interviews? I turned up for mine, but I don’t know that I was typical.
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset. Bad news for Labour - you think all those people who switched this election will automatically change back at the next one. I don't think they will. Especially so if Labour are mad enough to elect another Corbynista - which they will, by the way. The party membership will make that absolutely certain.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of moderation in your party.
A crushing defeat so richly deserved, which I thought was nigh on impossible (despite the evidence I was hearing from Dudley North) - but - it could have and really should have been much worse for Labour.
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky general too, it could be more than that.
Here's hoping
It took Labour 14 years & three leaders to recover from Michael Foot, they may well beat that record.
I expect we will hear that the main reason for the defeat was that voters didn't understand their Manifesto, they did not explain it clearly enough or that it was not Socialist enough. A repeat of the Foot excuses.
And with Burgon in the leadership, it will give a whole new meaning to the phrase “first as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Can Burgon even put his own trousers on without help?
I still want to know how he got into Cambridge. Is personation a problem at Oxbridge interviews? I turned up for mine, but I don’t know that I was typical.
Of those 8 things you list 1 is the de facto position at the moment (railways), 6 of them are effectively the same as Boris' policies and 1 (tuition fees) will be dealt with when (as I expect) Boris reduces interest rates on tuition fees as part of the implementation of the review of HE finances.
You did remember to vote Tory, didn't you?
You think Johnson will tackle tuition fees? I highly doubt it.
Is it bad that these things are similar to what Johnson is proposing? I don't think Johnson will actually follow through on any of them - that's the point.
I'm sure Labour can do a bit more to differentiate itself - but the whole point was that the left has moved, Labour needs to realise that and understand it.
And Johnson isn't ending austerity, he's leaving the majority of the cuts in place.
I fully expect Boris to get tuition fees dealt with. And early on. See a few more of those red pimples get washed over by the soothing balm of a blue tide.
Let it sink in with a young generation - Boris is on your side. Leave Labour nothing more to offer.
The worst part of the fees are the interest rates. Those should be linked to inflation, not at 4 or 5%.
Personally, I'd phase out the current system and have am extra tenth of a percent or whatever it is on the main and higher bands of income tax. There'd be no student debt at all, and you'd get a far higher contribution from higher earners. People going abroad would be difficult. Maybe if you aren't a UK taxpayer you pay the net of your loan and the payments you have already made through income tax.
The kind of thing Labour should offer. The Tories have had nine years to do something about it, let's see if in five they've done anything.
Of those 8 things you list 1 is the de facto position at the moment (railways), 6 of them are effectively the same as Boris' policies and 1 (tuition fees) will be dealt with when (as I expect) Boris reduces interest rates on tuition fees as part of the implementation of the review of HE finances.
You did remember to vote Tory, didn't you?
You think Johnson will tackle tuition fees? I highly doubt it.
Is it bad that these things are similar to what Johnson is proposing? I don't think Johnson will actually follow through on any of them - that's the point.
I'm sure Labour can do a bit more to differentiate itself - but the whole point was that the left has moved, Labour needs to realise that and understand it.
And Johnson isn't ending austerity, he's leaving the majority of the cuts in place.
I fully expect Boris to get tuition fees dealt with. And early on. See a few more of those red pimples get washed over by the soothing balm of a blue tide.
Let it sink in with a young generation - Boris is on your side. Leave Labour nothing more to offer.
The worst part of the fees are the interest rates. Those should be linked to inflation, not at 4 or 5%.
Personally, I'd phase out the current system and have am extra tenth of a percent or whatever it is on the main and higher bands of income tax. There'd be no student debt at all, and you'd get a far higher contribution from higher earners. People going abroad would be difficult. Maybe if you aren't a UK taxpayer you pay the net of your loan and the payments you have already made through income tax.
"Getting Brexit done" is actually helpful if this is the way you want to go, cuts out EU students coming and getting free tuition then moving back to the continent (whereas a loans-based system can "follow them" back).
It's not the young generation Labour needs to worry about, it's those who they've just lost (3 million people) to the Tories, BXP or who couldn't be bothered to vote this time.
If they're putting up RLB and Burgon that tells me they have learned nothing.
They don’t want to learn anything and have no intention of doing anything other than putting forward the person they’ve been grooming to take over.
The Far Left - as it was during Kinnock days - needs to be utterly humiliated and expelled from the party.
Let’s not confuse genuine radicalism with being Far Left.
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset. Bad news for Labour - you think all those people who switched this election will automatically change back at the next one. I don't think they will. Especially so if Labour are mad enough to elect another Corbynista - which they will, by the way. The party membership will make that absolutely certain.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of moderation in your party.
A crushing defeat so richly deserved, which I thought was nigh on impossible (despite the evidence I was hearing from Dudley North) - but - it could have and really should have been much worse for Labour.
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky general too, it could be more than that.
Here's hoping
The Tories now have their work cut out to keep those new voters in the north and midlands. Are you really expecting Brexit and Johnson to transform the lives of people in Workington, Bolsover, Stoke etc? If they do then good luck to them.
If disillusionment with Brexit and Bozo sets in they will desert the Tories as quickly as they arrived. They have not become core Tory voters overnight. There is a reason most of those seats rarely voted for Tories in the past.
The other side of the coin is that the Tory vote only increased by some 300K compared to May's campaign, so lots of former Tory voters have deserted the party to be replaced by WWC leavers.
If Brexit is not a success and the WWC leavers are disillusioned and desert are you convinced that ex-Tory remainers are going to flood back into the party that owns Brexit 100%?
If Labour choose the right leader and the economy performs badly in the post-Brexit years Johnson will be out in 5 years.
None of the parties should rush to a new direction. They can make working assumptions about broad components that will be in place at the next election, but those will need careful thought too.
The next election in Britain is likely to be fought at a time of continuing chronic economic underperformance, given the handicap Brexit will continue to place on Britain, Britain’s influence will have continued to vaporise, it having withdrawn from the first division of nations, and the country is likely to be still more divided, inward-looking and surly. The successful party is probably going to need to craft a positive message for people who have been let down yet again and who have lost all belief in promises. Getting that message is going to need careful thought.
Way too negative, and a bit bitter.
A new practical relationship with the EU will be forged and we will move on.
Actually, I agree with you here Casino. Boris looks to be in the move to compromise and reunite.
In non-political matters, I see from an older thread that have decided to move on from Crossrail. One of the best pieces of professional advice I have ever had (from a Tory friend, as it happens) is that you can ride lots of stuff out, but once you lose enthusiasm for your core job, you must move on. I have always applied that test and it’s worked for me.
Its towns v cities, global v local. This is about those areas of the country who feel they have taken the hit on globalism trying to get back on their feet.
If the Tories can consolidate their gains we'll be looking at a new landscape.
Yep.
By fighting on the genius and simple slogan “Get Brexit Done,” he exposed the deep divides on the left, unified the right, and knocked his opponents for six (if you will forgive a cricket metaphor). But just as important, he moved the party sharply left on austerity, spending on public services, tax cuts for the working poor, and a higher minimum wage. He outflanked the far right on Brexit and shamelessly echoed the left on economic policy.
This is Trumpism without Trump. A conservative future without an ineffective and polarizing nutjob at the heart of it. Johnson now has a mandate to enact this new Tory alignment, and he will be far more competent than Trump at it. Unlike Trump, he will stop E.U. mass migration, and pass a new immigration system, based on the Australian model. Unlike Trump, he will focus tax cuts on the working poor, not the decadent rich.
That is the theory. Now for the delivery. If Johnson really is going to tack left he will need to take a right-wing party with him - at a time when the UK is facing significant economic headwinds. It will mean the Tories having to accept higher taxes and more borrowing over a sustained period and putting all dreams of Singapore-on-Thames to bed. It will also mean having to do an all-encompassing trade deal with the EU and keeping immigration levels high. We’ll see what happens!
Singapore on Thames (in so far as it ever existed) fell yesterday along with Labour’s Northern Red Wall. Boris has to deliver for the North and pronto.
Johnson is really not going to tack left. There is a phenomenal amount of gullibility on here. This mendacious liar will feel no sense of responsibility. He and his party also have no useful ideas for the disadvantaged. The only cohesive philosophical pressure will come from the hardline right-wing thinktanks, and their paymasters in the USA. That is where we are headed, with plenty of culture war to help hold the bulk of his electoral coalition together. Look to the Republicans in the USA and to India, not European Christian Democracy.
If anyone still hasn't had their fill of political SNIP
SNIP
I would have thought May 2022 should be favourite. That would be a year after Holyrood, there should be some clarity over Brexit by then and Boris Johnson will probably have been sacked so the new leader will have a weaker democratic mandate.
SNIP
Ydoethur, what are the big problems, the perennial education same as rest of UK, NHS ditto. We know Tories and Labour cannot solve these issues and its Westminster that allocates the cash so how would that impact the SNP. GFiven there is absolutely no opposition from the London parties who people know will do nothing for Scotland I cannot think of anything else unless there are big revelations at Alex's trial.
Actually, no Malcolm. The indicators for health and education are worse than particularly England. Now before you point out - correctly - that there are a number of very good reasons for this that are nothing to do with the SNP, I would have thought the fact that they are all going the wrong way despite what have been energetic efforts by the Holyrood government to improve, e.g. the public health and preventative health systems, should give pause for thought. The Salmond trial was also another big challenge I was thinking of. That could be Profumo on speed - or, of course, a damp squib. We don’t know yet.
Of course, the situation in Scotland is far better than the one in Wales and Labour keep clinging on like limpets who have had superglue added. But getting a majority in 2021 even with Green support doesn’t look like a gimme from here.
I do agree they need to get a grip on education , NHS has better numbers than England and most of it is tied to what Westminster does as we just get a % of what they get and so SNP can only do what they can with what is allocated. All the main powers are held by Westminster and so it is tough to be able to make changes on big things like education and NHS with your hands tied.
That is of course the SNP line. And there is an element of truth in it. I just wonder how long it will work for.
There is ZERO credible opposition in Scotland, all the London parties appoint sockpuppet dummies as leaders, they follow London orders and get trounced every time. Hard to see the circle breaking until we get a REAL Scottish party from the ashes of Labour/Tories London regional office parties.
I would back Rayner for leadership. She seems to be the most pragmatic and relatable Labour figure.
So going from a leader with his two A levels to a leader without any qualifications at all!
I don't think that was the reason Labour lost somehow.
It's her or Starmer who seem to not be wedded to Corbynism, I'm being pragmatic as possible. Perhaps one in the cabinet and one outside.
How sale-able to the electorate do you think a potential PM is with zero educational qualifications?
You make a fair point - which is why it's even more depressing that this is the highest bar of the current Labour Party.
It is not a fair point at all. Why do educational qualifications matter? They are largely the result of life chances and anybody who believes this is a disqualification should be nowhere near a party of the working class. Ever heard of Keir Hardie?
If anyone still hasn't had their fill of political SNIP
SNIP
I would have thought May 2022 should be favourite. That would be a year after Holyrood, there should be some clarity over Brexit by then and Boris Johnson will probably have been sacked so the new leader will have a weaker democratic mandate.
SNIP
Ydoethur, what are the big problems, the perennial education same as rest of UK, NHS ditto. We know Tories and Labour cannot solve these issues and its Westminster that allocates the cash so how would that impact the SNP. GFiven there is absolutely no opposition from the London parties who people know will do nothing for Scotland I cannot think of anything else unless there are big revelations at Alex's trial.
Actually, no Malcolm. The indicators for health and education are worse than particularly England. Now before you point out - correctly - that there are a number of very good reasons for this that are nothing to do with the SNP, I would have thought the fact that they are all going the wrong way despite what have been energetic efforts by the Holyrood government to improve, e.g. the public health and preventative health systems, should give pause for thought. The Salmond trial was also another big challenge I was thinking of. That could be Profumo on speed - or, of course, a damp squib. We don’t know yet.
Of course, the situation in Scotland is far better than the one in Wales and Labour keep clinging on like limpets who have had superglue added. But getting a majority in 2021 even with Green support doesn’t look like a gimme from here.
I do agree they need to get a grip on education , NHS has better numbers than England and most of it is tied to what Westminster does as we just get a % of what they get and so SNP can only do what they can with what is allocated. All the main powers are held by Westminster and so it is tough to be able to make changes on big things like education and NHS with your hands tied.
That is of course the SNP line. And there is an element of truth in it. I just wonder how long it will work for.
There is ZERO credible opposition in Scotland, all the London parties appoint sockpuppet dummies as leaders, they follow London orders and get trounced every time. Hard to see the circle breaking until we get a REAL Scottish party from the ashes of Labour/Tories London regional office parties.
I'm unclear from this whether you believe it is even possible for a unionist party to be a real Scottish party.
Its towns v cities, global v local. This is about those areas of the country who feel they have taken the hit on globalism trying to get back on their feet.
If the Tories can consolidate their gains we'll be looking at a new landscape.
Yep.
By fighting on the genius and simple slogan “Get Brexit Done,” he exposed the deep divides on the left, unified the right, and knocked his opponents for six (if you will forgive a cricket metaphor). But just as important, he moved the party sharply left on austerity, spending on public services, tax cuts for the working poor, and a higher minimum wage. He outflanked the far right on Brexit and shamelessly echoed the left on economic policy.
This is Trumpism without Trump. A conservative future without an ineffective and polarizing nutjob at the heart of it. Johnson now has a mandate to enact this new Tory alignment, and he will be far more competent than Trump at it. Unlike Trump, he will stop E.U. mass migration, and pass a new immigration system, based on the Australian model. Unlike Trump, he will focus tax cuts on the working poor, not the decadent rich.
That is the theory. Now for the delivery. If Johnson really is going to tack left he will need to take a right-wing party with him - at a time when the UK is facing significant economic headwinds. It will mean the Tories having to accept higher taxes and more borrowing over a sustained period and putting all dreams of Singapore-on-Thames to bed. It will also mean having to do an all-encompassing trade deal with the EU and keeping immigration levels high. We’ll see what happens!
Singapore on Thames (in so far as it ever existed) fell yesterday along with Labour’s Northern Red Wall. Boris has to deliver for the North and pronto.
Johnson is really not going to tack left. There is a phenomenal amount of gullibility on here. This mendacious liar will feel no sense of responsibility. He and his party also have no useful ideas for the disadvantaged. The only cohesive philosophical pressure will come from the hardline right-wing thinktanks, and their paymasters in the USA. That is where we are headed, with plenty of culture war to help hold the bulk of his electoral coalition together. Look to the Republicans in the USA and to India, not European Christian Democracy.
It will be an utter shitshow.
Probably. I think Boris very malleable and could do many things if persuaded by advisers it will be popular, regardless of it being left or right. Hes just nore likely to listen on things from the right
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset. Bad news for Labour - you think all those people who switched this election will automatically change back at the next one. I don't think they will. Especially so if Labour are mad enough to elect another Corbynista - which they will, by the way. The party membership will make that absolutely certain.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of moderation in your party.
A crushing defeat so richly deserved, which I thought was nigh on impossible (despite the evidence I was hearing from Dudley North) - but - it could have and really should have been much worse for Labour.
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky general too, it could be more than that.
Here's hoping
The Tories now have their work cut out to keep those new voters in the north and midlands. Are you really expecting Brexit and Johnson to transform the lives of people in Workington, Bolsover, Stoke etc? If they do then good luck to them.
If disillusionment with Brexit and Bozo sets in they will desert the Tories as quickly as they arrived. They have not become core Tory voters overnight. There is a reason most of those seats rarely voted for Tories in the past.
The other side of the coin is that the Tory vote only increased by some 300K compared to May's campaign, so lots of former Tory voters have deserted the party to be replaced by WWC leavers.
If Brexit is not a success and the WWC leavers are disillusioned and desert are you convinced that ex-Tory remainers are going to flood back into the party that owns Brexit 100%?
If Labour choose the right leader and the economy performs badly in the post-Brexit years Johnson will be out in 5 years.
Wont be easy. They'll need to be good and lucky. But they dont need to give up on 2024. Or 2023 more likely.
Comments
Heads off for a think.
BTW I've now watched the Blyth Valley result on BBC iplayer about 9 times now.... what other clips were the most symbolic I wonder....
It’s a myth that Labour has lost the working class - Ash Sarkar
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/myth-labour-lost-working-class-pollsters
It took Labour 14 years & three leaders to recover from Michael Foot, they may well beat that record.
I expect we will hear that the main reason for the defeat was that voters didn't understand their Manifesto, they did not explain it clearly enough or that it was not Socialist enough. A repeat of the Foot excuses.
Let it sink in with a young generation - Boris is on your side. Leave Labour nothing more to offer.
Ask me in five years whether it's changed. But I think the hopefulness here is almost as bad as the hope I felt before this election.
If they're putting up RLB and Burgon that tells me they have learned nothing.
Personally, I'd phase out the current system and have am extra tenth of a percent or whatever it is on the main and higher bands of income tax. There'd be no student debt at all, and you'd get a far higher contribution from higher earners. People going abroad would be difficult. Maybe if you aren't a UK taxpayer you pay the net of your loan and the payments you have already made through income tax.
I’ll get my coat
They don’t want to learn anything and have no intention of doing anything other than putting forward the person they’ve been grooming to take over.
The Far Left - as it was during Kinnock days - needs to be utterly humiliated and expelled from the party.
Let’s not confuse genuine radicalism with being Far Left.
If disillusionment with Brexit and Bozo sets in they will desert the Tories as quickly as they arrived. They have not become core Tory voters overnight. There is a reason most of those seats rarely voted for Tories in the past.
The other side of the coin is that the Tory vote only increased by some 300K compared to May's campaign, so lots of former Tory voters have deserted the party to be replaced by WWC leavers.
If Brexit is not a success and the WWC leavers are disillusioned and desert are you convinced that ex-Tory remainers are going to flood back into the party that owns Brexit 100%?
If Labour choose the right leader and the economy performs badly in the post-Brexit years Johnson will be out in 5 years.
Much appreciated.
It will be an utter shitshow.
Ever heard of Keir Hardie?