Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
It is 1% different to the lead Cameron had over Miliband in 2015 when Dave won a majority.
1% different? HP nailed on.
Doubt it. I think they'd still have a majority on a 6.5% lead, as Cameron did despite the SNP sweeping Scotland.
I may have been commenting sarcastically.
I must admit it's become difficult to make the difference, given how many people seem to seriously believe a 7% lead would result in a hung parliament.
Disney Plus — with an assist from Baby Yoda — was the No. 1 top-trending Google search in the United States for 2019, according to the internet giant.
Now that is what I call proper viral.
It is incredibly rare nowadays that something like Baby Yoda can be kept completely silent until launch.
Equally the fact the Mandalorian episodes are the length of the story without padding is a great improvement on most TV (including streaming) that is an hour plus long for the sake of it
Sorry for my ignorance on this, but does this mean that they reduced the labour voting in weighting thus meaning the Labour vote could actually be higher. Or have they kept it the same and the labour vote in likely to be lower than the poll?
Pollsters normally downweight in the headline numbers (usually if you say 8/10 sure your vote countrs 80%, but some apply a cutoff below e.g. 5/10). So yes, the potential Labour vote is higher when the certainty is shown as lower. The detailed tables usually show the unadjusted figures too.
Disney Plus — with an assist from Baby Yoda — was the No. 1 top-trending Google search in the United States for 2019, according to the internet giant.
Now that is what I call proper viral.
It is incredibly rare nowadays that something like Baby Yoda can be kept completely silent until launch.
Equally the fact the Mandalorian episodes are the length of the story without padding is a great improvement on most TV (including streaming) that is an hour plus long for the sake of it
The only downside for Disney, no merch for them to flog for Christmas.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
Blimey, this is uncannily similar to the WilliamGlenn "All roads lead to a second referendum" years
Disney Plus — with an assist from Baby Yoda — was the No. 1 top-trending Google search in the United States for 2019, according to the internet giant.
Now that is what I call proper viral.
It is incredibly rare nowadays that something like Baby Yoda can be kept completely silent until launch.
Equally the fact the Mandalorian episodes are the length of the story without padding is a great improvement on most TV (including streaming) that is an hour plus long for the sake of it
The only downside for Disney, no merch for them to flog for Christmas.
I'm sure season 2 will be ready in just enough time to support next years Christmas market..
Jesus. My colleague has just written Christmas as 'exmas' and I'm torn between laughing at him and throwing a stapler at his head. Thoughts?
Staple something to his head.
Did he write "exmas" or Xmas? If it is the latter that is perfectly traditional and acceptable, as the X comes from the Greek Chi standing for Christos.
If the former then he is a virtue-signalling but shy atheist.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
Blimey, this is uncannily similar to the WilliamGlenn "All roads lead to a second referendum" years
A 16 point Ipsos leadership gap is still 4 times the lead May had on Corbyn
The gap will be 10 points. This will mean the Cons will take a shed load more seats than the YouGov MRP says. People will then trash the MRP.
They will totally ignore that the Con majority of 50 seats is based on a series of razor thin majorities as Con leads in seats they hold is cut and they only take seats 30-50 off of labour on tiny majorities.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
It is 1% different to the lead Cameron had over Miliband in 2015 when Dave won a majority.
2015 might have been the exception I can’t remember. The user in question will need to comment as I’m sure I’ve misunderstood
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
As I have noted previously, the historical relationship between the Mori leader satisfaction data and the party vote share lead (GB) is estimated using Mori's political monitor data and these election tracker data are higher frequency and based on a slightly different question, so I am wary of simply plugging these data into the model. The political monitor data suggest a Tory lead of 8pp using net leader satisfaction and 6.5pp using only positive satisfaction - this latter relationship has better predictive power. If we did simply plug in these numbers, showing an improvement in Corbyn's ratings, then they would show a tighter race, consistent with a HP, but with the caveat noted above. Hope that is all clear!
He's always a little fringe however I think C. Murray has produced a interesting article on the constant Conservative vote share %.
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
This redistribution of the Tory vote is advantageous to their chances, loads more labour leave marginals compared to Con remain previously safe where the LDs need a massive swing to win.
Yes, advantageous for this election. Is it the realigning of Conservative demographics in the liberal leaning south? As labour found in Scotland if you lose that dependable block of 50+ MPs you have much further to fall if the campaign goes wring. You're now reliant on influencing people who are not your base.
If the Conservative vote is no longer the affluent home counties liberal, the 30+ home owning majority, the Kensington and Chelsea set. They become dependant on a floating, emotive and unreliable voter. Not a good look for 'the party of business'.
The gap will be 10 points. This will mean the Cons will take a shed load more seats than the YouGov MRP says. People will then trash the MRP.
They will totally ignore that the Con majority of 50 seats is based on a series of razor thin majorities as Con leads in seats they hold is cut and they only take seats 30-50 off of labour on tiny majorities.
What's happening in Scotland tho lol
Me losing money.
Are we holding up in Inverclyde ?
Labour on 16% up there in some polls - but now a stonking MRP ! Who is their vote !?
Speaking of losing, it's the point in the campaign where everyone is incredibly nervous. If you speak to any candidate, they all think they're going to lose at this point.
He's always a little fringe however I think C. Murray has produced a interesting article on the constant Conservative vote share %.
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
This redistribution of the Tory vote is advantageous to their chances, loads more labour leave marginals compared to Con remain previously safe where the LDs need a massive swing to win.
Yes, advantageous for this election. Is it the realigning of Conservative demographics in the liberal leaning south? As labour found in Scotland if you lose that dependable block of 50+ MPs you have much further to fall if the campaign goes wring. You're now reliant on influencing people who are not your base.
If the Conservative vote is no longer the affluent home counties liberal, the 30+ home owning majority, the Kensington and Chelsea set. They become dependant on a floating, emotive and unreliable voter. Not a good look for 'the party of business'.
Absolutely. The Tories are aligning themselves to a bored, resentful and unreliable demographic. Even if that sees them through this election it won't any other. The Tory party is dying before our eyes.
Corbyn cancels going to Ashfield, not welcome in the Red Wall seats.
Or it’s in the bag...
Ashfield is a very odd one. YouGov has it as Likely Conservative with Labour second, nine points behind, and the various odds and sods including the Ashfield Independents far behind at 10% or less. But the betting markets have the Ashfield Indies as second favourite, and at one point had them on just 2/1 (now mostly drifted out to 3/1).
I must say I'm with YouGov on this, I don't see the Ashfield Indies, who compete for the Leave vote with the Tories and with the BXP, getting very far here. I hope I'm right, because I sold them at 13 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market and so will do very nicely if they end up third or worse (and still make a profit if they end up second).
I'll offer you £20 vs £20 on charity donations for Ashfield Indy vs Tories in Ashfield. My £20 says the Indys will take it. Void if BXP or LAB win.
If you are right, it would be a striking illustration of the MRP’s weakness in forecasting a seat-specific swing.
The gap will be 10 points. This will mean the Cons will take a shed load more seats than the YouGov MRP says. People will then trash the MRP.
They will totally ignore that the Con majority of 50 seats is based on a series of razor thin majorities as Con leads in seats they hold is cut and they only take seats 30-50 off of labour on tiny majorities.
What's happening in Scotland tho lol
Me losing money.
I decided my method of betting on this inscrutable election was to focus on Labour as the one certainty I had was that 25% was absurd. So I piled most on 200+ seats and a smaller one on 250+
Jesus. My colleague has just written Christmas as 'exmas' and I'm torn between laughing at him and throwing a stapler at his head. Thoughts?
Staple something to his head.
Did he write "exmas" or Xmas? If it is the latter that is perfectly traditional and acceptable, as the X comes from the Greek Chi standing for Christos.
If the former then he is a virtue-signalling but shy atheist.
Either that or he’s planning on shagging an old flame over the festive season.
Corbyn cancels going to Ashfield, not welcome in the Red Wall seats.
Or it’s in the bag...
Ashfield is a very odd one. YouGov has it as Likely Conservative with Labour second, nine points behind, and the various odds and sods including the Ashfield Independents far behind at 10% or less. But the betting markets have the Ashfield Indies as second favourite, and at one point had them on just 2/1 (now mostly drifted out to 3/1).
I must say I'm with YouGov on this, I don't see the Ashfield Indies, who compete for the Leave vote with the Tories and with the BXP, getting very far here. I hope I'm right, because I sold them at 13 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market and so will do very nicely if they end up third or worse (and still make a profit if they end up second).
I'll offer you £20 vs £20 on charity donations for Ashfield Indy vs Tories in Ashfield. My £20 says the Indys will take it. Void if BXP or LAB win.
If you are right, it would be a striking illustration of the MRP’s weakness in forecasting a seat-specific swing.
MRP vastly overestimated independents (Particularly Claire Wright) in 2017.
The gap will be 10 points. This will mean the Cons will take a shed load more seats than the YouGov MRP says. People will then trash the MRP.
They will totally ignore that the Con majority of 50 seats is based on a series of razor thin majorities as Con leads in seats they hold is cut and they only take seats 30-50 off of labour on tiny majorities.
I'll offer you £20 vs £20 on charity donations for Ashfield Indy vs Tories in Ashfield. My £20 says the Indys will take it. Void if BXP or LAB win.
Since it's for charity, yes, fine. We're on, if you're happy to go ahead.
Yep. Done.
Ashfield is your constituency iirc ?
Might be !
I could be wrong, but the Independent took 64% of the vote across the piece at the locals to the Tory 11%. Quite startling for an Indy crowd, even with all the Lib Dem infrastructure they inherited. The last one I can remember like that was the Boston Bypass Independents.
And the Tory candidate is faceplanting so much that he has a turnip on his head. The Crick-ing cut through locally, but it happened in the car park of my polling place so very much in my bubble.
Do these people all over Twitter, who are convinced pollsters are either stupid or trying to manipulate the data to spin a narrative, not know how they make their money?
Sporting currently has the Tories at 341 seats, i.e.a majority of 32, whereas Spreadex go 340 for a maj of 30. Both very close therefore to YouGov MRP's 28 seat maj.
Sporting currently has the Tories at 341 seats, i.e.a majority of 32, whereas Spreadex go 340 for a maj of 30. Both very close therefore to YouGov MRP's 28 seat maj.
Sporting currently has the Tories at 341 seats, i.e.a majority of 32, whereas Spreadex go 340 for a maj of 30. Both very close therefore to YouGov MRP's 28 seat maj.
I must confess I'm feeling a bit sorry for Jo Swinson. As I said before, her advisors must be really bad. It was obvious about 48 hours into the campaign that she wasn't coming across well, but they must have told her everything was fine and to carry on as before. About 3 weeks later they realised it wasn't working out as they'd hoped.
It is odd. Admittedly the transition from a relatively minor figure without much front-line experience to becoming party leader, especially at such a crucial time, wouldn't be easy for anyone, but the LibDems have got plenty of people with a lot of experience, and you'd have thought they'd have been able to steer her away from some of the rookie errors she's made.
Perhaps they tried but she didn't listen?
I'll put something up about this in much more detail once tomorrow is over and life returns to normal in the New Year.
Briefly, the LDs always need to be distinctive in some way from the two main parties in order to cut through. One of the hopes for Jo was she would be Britain's Jacinda Ardern but at the very least she would be a contrast to Johnson and Corbyn and had we chosen Ed Davey all three parties would have been led by white, male MPs representing London seats.
She was one part of the drive to be distinctive - the other was the message and as I argued on Monday however you turn it or phrase it the message runs into the democratic legitimacy of June 2016 and though many LDs passionately believe leaving the EU is wrong (I believe the way we are going about it is wrong) the fact is LEAVE won the referendum, the LDs need to accept that and move on making the argument it is in the UK's interest to maintain a close and harmonious economic and trading relationship with the EU.
You can't have a democratic party arguing for the negation of democracy - that's why I've not campaigned or worked for the Party this time. Once we leave the EU, the LDs can argue the proposition to rejoin - fine, no problem there - but we have to enact June 2016 however much we may think it wrong or misguided.
In a stroke, the LDs lost any chance of connecting with the LEAVE vote or with those who, even though they might consider the vote wrong, believe it is in the interests if democracy the will of the people as expressed in June 2016 be carried forward.
I suspect there will be ample pickings from the Conservative table as Johnson blunders his way through the early 2020s and the departure from the EU whether by crashing out this time next year or via some form of Deal in 2021 or later.
London 36% Non-London south 53% Midlands/Wales 46% North 35% Scotland 28%
YouGov 5-6 Dec #GE2019 #Brexit
It always seems a bit daft (or lazy) to me when Wales gets lumped in with the Midlands. I've lived most of my life in the East Midlands and I went to university in Wales... they're not exactly the same, to say the least.
He's always a little fringe however I think C. Murray has produced a interesting article on the constant Conservative vote share %.
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
This redistribution of the Tory vote is advantageous to their chances, loads more labour leave marginals compared to Con remain previously safe where the LDs need a massive swing to win.
Yes, advantageous for this election. Is it the realigning of Conservative demographics in the liberal leaning south? As labour found in Scotland if you lose that dependable block of 50+ MPs you have much further to fall if the campaign goes wring. You're now reliant on influencing people who are not your base.
If the Conservative vote is no longer the affluent home counties liberal, the 30+ home owning majority, the Kensington and Chelsea set. They become dependant on a floating, emotive and unreliable voter. Not a good look for 'the party of business'.
Absolutely. The Tories are aligning themselves to a bored, resentful and unreliable demographic. Even if that sees them through this election it won't any other. The Tory party is dying before our eyes.
Once Brexit is done, parties will realign and Tory base will come home. Not so sure about Labour Midlands/North if momentum keeps stranglehold of party
London 36% Non-London south 53% Midlands/Wales 46% North 35% Scotland 28%
YouGov 5-6 Dec #GE2019 #Brexit
It always seems a bit daft (or lazy) to me when Wales gets lumped in with the Midlands. I've lived most of my life in the East Midlands and I went to university in Wales... they're not exactly the same, to say the least.
"Non London south" is staggeringly large in terms of population too if they're including everywhere from Norfolk to Penzance. London and Scotland are minnows in that pool of 5 fish.
The Labour increase over the past couple of days is mainly the result of remain voters switching from the Lib Dems to Labour https://t.co/cJBwB5Q3Sb
Yep ... waiting to see which horse to back and trying to prevent splitting the Remain vote. Now's the time to hold your nose and vote for the least worst option depending on your priority i.e. Leave / Remain versus Left / Right.
The Labour increase over the past couple of days is mainly the result of remain voters switching from the Lib Dems to Labour https://t.co/cJBwB5Q3Sb
Their hope for a Brexit reversal making them blind to antisemitism and the rest. Otherwise you have to almost admire it, they are risking their pension pots, mortgages and entire financial well-being.
London 36% Non-London south 53% Midlands/Wales 46% North 35% Scotland 28%
YouGov 5-6 Dec #GE2019 #Brexit
It always seems a bit daft (or lazy) to me when Wales gets lumped in with the Midlands. I've lived most of my life in the East Midlands and I went to university in Wales... they're not exactly the same, to say the least.
"Non London south" is staggeringly large in terms of population too if they're including everywhere from Norfolk to Penzance. London and Scotland are minnows in that pool of 5 fish.
Yes, but we can all imagine the outrage if either London or Scotland were to get lumped in with other regions. LOL
London 36% Non-London south 53% Midlands/Wales 46% North 35% Scotland 28%
YouGov 5-6 Dec #GE2019 #Brexit
It always seems a bit daft (or lazy) to me when Wales gets lumped in with the Midlands. I've lived most of my life in the East Midlands and I went to university in Wales... they're not exactly the same, to say the least.
Yep. The only excuse for doing that is if it is to highlight contrasts between zones bigger than regions.
Corbyn cancels going to Ashfield, not welcome in the Red Wall seats.
Or it’s in the bag...
Ashfield is a very odd one. YouGov has it as Likely Conservative with Labour second, nine points behind, and the various odds and sods including the Ashfield Independents far behind at 10% or less. But the betting markets have the Ashfield Indies as second favourite, and at one point had them on just 2/1 (now mostly drifted out to 3/1).
I must say I'm with YouGov on this, I don't see the Ashfield Indies, who compete for the Leave vote with the Tories and with the BXP, getting very far here. I hope I'm right, because I sold them at 13 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market and so will do very nicely if they end up third or worse (and still make a profit if they end up second).
I'll offer you £20 vs £20 on charity donations for Ashfield Indy vs Tories in Ashfield. My £20 says the Indys will take it. Void if BXP or LAB win.
If you are right, it would be a striking illustration of the MRP’s weakness in forecasting a seat-specific swing.
It really is the weirdest contest, though, with the Ashfield Indy candidate being a former LibDem Leaver who was charged with 24 historic child sex abuse charges just before the last election, charges which were dropped on the morning of his trial, and who subsequently led the Ashfield Indys to take over the local council. Meanwhile the Tory candidate is an ex-miner and former supporter of Scargill, and he previously ran the Labour constituency office (another of the ex-Labour staff now works for the Indy). He's now under investigation by the Tories for anti-Semitism and has made some, err, other controversial remarks. There's also the BXP candidate who used to edit Loaded.
Good luck to the YouGov nerds sticking that lot into their MRP!
The Labour increase over the past couple of days is mainly the result of remain voters switching from the Lib Dems to Labour https://t.co/cJBwB5Q3Sb
Their hope for a Brexit reversal making them blind to antisemitism and the rest. Otherwise you have to almost admire it, they are risking their pension pots, mortgages and entire financial well-being.
More than that ... the fools will engineer exactly the perfect No Deal storm they wish to avoid. Utterly braindead.
London 36% Non-London south 53% Midlands/Wales 46% North 35% Scotland 28%
YouGov 5-6 Dec #GE2019 #Brexit
It always seems a bit daft (or lazy) to me when Wales gets lumped in with the Midlands. I've lived most of my life in the East Midlands and I went to university in Wales... they're not exactly the same, to say the least.
"Non London south" is staggeringly large in terms of population too if they're including everywhere from Norfolk to Penzance. London and Scotland are minnows in that pool of 5 fish.
Yes, but we can all imagine the outrage if either London or Scotland were to get lumped in with other regions. LOL
They're overpolled for their importance to the main Con/Lab battle. We've lacked broad "North", "Midlands", SW and SE polling this election.
He's always a little fringe however I think C. Murray has produced a interesting article on the constant Conservative vote share %.
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
This redistribution of the Tory vote is advantageous to their chances, loads more labour leave marginals compared to Con remain previously safe where the LDs need a massive swing to win.
Yes, advantageous for this election. Is it the realigning of Conservative demographics in the liberal leaning south? As labour found in Scotland if you lose that dependable block of 50+ MPs you have much further to fall if the campaign goes wring. You're now reliant on influencing people who are not your base.
If the Conservative vote is no longer the affluent home counties liberal, the 30+ home owning majority, the Kensington and Chelsea set. They become dependant on a floating, emotive and unreliable voter. Not a good look for 'the party of business'.
Absolutely. The Tories are aligning themselves to a bored, resentful and unreliable demographic. Even if that sees them through this election it won't any other. The Tory party is dying before our eyes.
The Tory party has been dying ever since it was founded, just like test cricket in England.
My betting view from the start has been for big Con majority. I'm sticking with that but in truth it would be best described now as pure impressionistic hunch. I await the exit poll tomorrow with genuine uncertainty and hence excitement. For my wallet, c'mon you Tories. For the country, c'mon you Hung Parliament!
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put it another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
Good question. If the following conditions all held
* the government wanted a crashout on 31 Jan * a majority of MPs wanted to stop that * the Speaker refused to allow the parliamentary means needed by said majority to take command of the order paper * it was clear that an effort to replace said Speaker would be unsuccessful
then there would remain the option of a VONC in the government under the FTPA ...and if the prime minister refused to resign, attempting to force a GE which would be too late, then ...it gets interesting ...and I wouldn't fancy the monarchy's chances...
Yes, I accept all of that - and believe that VONC is all that will be open to remainer mps - but the GE wouldn`t be until AFTER 31/1. So we would have already left. PM wouldn`t "force a GE which would be too late", rather it would be impossible for there to be a GE in time.
If this is true, it is a criminal act that is unacceptable and the culprits should be punished with the full force of the law. However, until it is verified I would remain skeptical because of the source. If it turns out to be another of Guido's scheming tactics that is also outrageous.
Jesus. My colleague has just written Christmas as 'exmas' and I'm torn between laughing at him and throwing a stapler at his head. Thoughts?
Staple something to his head.
Did he write "exmas" or Xmas? If it is the latter that is perfectly traditional and acceptable, as the X comes from the Greek Chi standing for Christos.
If the former then he is a virtue-signalling but shy atheist.
He wrote "exmas". Five letters. Xmas would have been absolutely fine.
Corbyn cancels going to Ashfield, not welcome in the Red Wall seats.
Or it’s in the bag...
I must say I'm with YouGov on this, I don't see the Ashfield Indies, who compete for the Leave vote with the Tories and with the BXP, getting very far here. I hope I'm right, because I sold them at 13 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market and so will do very nicely if they end up third or worse (and still make a profit if they end up second).
I'll offer you £20 vs £20 on charity donations for Ashfield Indy vs Tories in Ashfield. My £20 says the Indys will take it. Void if BXP or LAB win.
If you are right, it would be a striking illustration of the MRP’s weakness in forecasting a seat-specific swing.
It really is the weirdest contest, though, with the Ashfield Indy candidate being a former LibDem Leaver who was charged with 24 historic child sex abuse charges just before the last election, charges which were dropped on the morning of his trial, and who subsequently led the Ashfield Indys to take over the local council. Meanwhile the Tory candidate is an ex-miner and former supporter of Scargill, and he previously ran the Labour constituency office (another of the ex-Labour staff now works for the Indy). He's now under investigation by the Tories for anti-Semitism and has made some, err, other controversial remarks. There's also the BXP candidate who used to edit Loaded.
Good luck to the YouGov nerds sticking that lot into their MRP!
LOL - it's brilliant, isn't it.
My cleaner this morning says she thinks Zadrozzle has it, or as some people locally know him "the one with the funny name".
I think the Tory candidate is suffering from a bit of the Swinson syndrome - a very popular, bluff local Councillor for Labour, possibly f*cked over by the local party (they have done it to others including a former Council Leader) but being too personal afterwards, suddenly put on a stage bigger than they are used to. I did not know that he was a former Scargillite.
The bit about the sex abuse charges is I think a rumour believed to have been generated by the BNP ten years earlier which was warmed over by person or persons unknown weeks before the 2015 election and hit the local papers. In my view the most damaged party by all that are the Notts Constabulary.
I think we want one of those verbatim plays about it.
Probably a very good call by Gloria to withdraw with dignity and reputation intact.
Can now log back into Vanilla again after a gap of several weeks. My takes on the election:
The Johnson strategy revealed in August of embracing and exterminating the Brexit Party will pay off. Maybe handsomely; maybe not. But it will get him over the majority line.
"The Conservative Party is politically and morally bankrupt and led by an out-and-out fraud, but at least he's not Corbyn". That notion has little salience. People who vote Conservative and perfectly OK with the party and its leader. Not very many are Remainers.
People are turning against Brexit, but in a way that benefits the Tories and harms the Lib Dems. Rather than saying this is a mess (as most people think it is) let's not go there, they don't want to talk about it or engage with the problem. The Tories cover the topic in three words - get Brexit done - so they get the nod.
YouGov's MRP poll confirms what I suspect about Scotland: there will be fewer Tory MPs in Scotland and more Labour ones than people think. That's because the main movement of floating voters is between the Conservatives and the SNP. Those voters aren't presumably massive unionists. Also any collapse in the Labour voteshare in Scotland harms rather than benefits the Tories. The collapsed votes will go to the SNP who could then outvote the Tories in the constituencies they hold.
AIUI, the YouGov MRP poll assumes a similar demographic profile to past (2017) elections, and ignores self-reported intention to vote. If the same applies to party turnout and some of the missing SNP vote from 2015 returns, this could significantly affect the tight Scottish contests.
The Labour increase over the past couple of days is mainly the result of remain voters switching from the Lib Dems to Labour https://t.co/cJBwB5Q3Sb
Their hope for a Brexit reversal making them blind to antisemitism and the rest. Otherwise you have to almost admire it, they are risking their pension pots, mortgages and entire financial well-being.
Yes, as mentioned earlier, presumably because they don't believe Corby's lot are electable or, if they were to be, that they can be controlled ... not a risk I would ever want to take no matter how strongly I felt about Leave / Remain. I just can't get my head round it ...
He's always a little fringe however I think C. Murray has produced a interesting article on the constant Conservative vote share %.
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
This redistribution of the Tory vote is advantageous to their chances, loads more labour leave marginals compared to Con remain previously safe where the LDs need a massive swing to win.
Yes, advantageous for this election. Is it the realigning of Conservative demographics in the liberal leaning south? As labour found in Scotland if you lose that dependable block of 50+ MPs you have much further to fall if the campaign goes wring. You're now reliant on influencing people who are not your base.
If the Conservative vote is no longer the affluent home counties liberal, the 30+ home owning majority, the Kensington and Chelsea set. They become dependant on a floating, emotive and unreliable voter. Not a good look for 'the party of business'.
Absolutely. The Tories are aligning themselves to a bored, resentful and unreliable demographic. Even if that sees them through this election it won't any other. The Tory party is dying before our eyes.
Once Brexit is done, parties will realign and Tory base will come home. Not so sure about Labour Midlands/North if momentum keeps stranglehold of party
Brexit will not "be done" for a generation. We might have left the EU, but it will not be "done". That slogan sums up Johnson. It is essentially a lie to satisfy the gullible.
One of my early bets. Looking for Lab held seats where Leave won and the Brexit vote in MRP1 was sizeable and higher than the gap between Lab and Con. Not a sophisticated strategy but hopefully reasonably successful.
He's always a little fringe however I think C. Murray has produced a interesting article on the constant Conservative vote share %.
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
This redistribution of the Tory vote is advantageous to their chances, loads more labour leave marginals compared to Con remain previously safe where the LDs need a massive swing to win.
Yes, advantageous for this election. Is it the realigning of Conservative demographics in the liberal leaning south? As labour found in Scotland if you lose that dependable block of 50+ MPs you have much further to fall if the campaign goes wring. You're now reliant on influencing people who are not your base.
If the Conservative vote is no longer the affluent home counties liberal, the 30+ home owning majority, the Kensington and Chelsea set. They become dependant on a floating, emotive and unreliable voter. Not a good look for 'the party of business'.
Absolutely. The Tories are aligning themselves to a bored, resentful and unreliable demographic. Even if that sees them through this election it won't any other. The Tory party is dying before our eyes.
The Tory party has been dying ever since it was founded, just like test cricket in England.
I would argue its shifting to an 'American style' Republican-esque party. Tying the angry and disenfranchised to it's self.
He's always a little fringe however I think C. Murray has produced a interesting article on the constant Conservative vote share %.
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
This redistribution of the Tory vote is advantageous to their chances, loads more labour leave marginals compared to Con remain previously safe where the LDs need a massive swing to win.
Yes, advantageous for this election. Is it the realigning of Conservative demographics in the liberal leaning south? As labour found in Scotland if you lose that dependable block of 50+ MPs you have much further to fall if the campaign goes wring. You're now reliant on influencing people who are not your base.
If the Conservative vote is no longer the affluent home counties liberal, the 30+ home owning majority, the Kensington and Chelsea set. They become dependant on a floating, emotive and unreliable voter. Not a good look for 'the party of business'.
Absolutely. The Tories are aligning themselves to a bored, resentful and unreliable demographic. Even if that sees them through this election it won't any other. The Tory party is dying before our eyes.
The Tory party has been dying ever since it was founded, just like test cricket in England.
Precisely. The whole philosophy of conservatism is that one day the forces of chaos and entropy and barbarism will triumph to drag us all down into the mire - but not today!
Comments
Equally the fact the Mandalorian episodes are the length of the story without padding is a great improvement on most TV (including streaming) that is an hour plus long for the sake of it
If the Conservative vote is no longer the affluent home counties liberal, the 30+ home owning majority, the Kensington and Chelsea set. They become dependant on a floating, emotive and unreliable voter. Not a good look for 'the party of business'.
Labour on 16% up there in some polls - but now a stonking MRP
London 36%
Non-London south 53%
Midlands/Wales 46%
North 35%
Scotland 28%
YouGov 5-6 Dec
#GE2019 #Brexit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9do5DWA_hnI
Speaking of losing, it's the point in the campaign where everyone is incredibly nervous. If you speak to any candidate, they all think they're going to lose at this point.
To be fair, most of them are right...
He's a classic example of someone delving into data desperate for a specific outcome …. and thus finding it.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/15-ex-labour-mps-eve-000100888.html
Hope I don't come a cropper having said that
I could be wrong, but the Independent took 64% of the vote across the piece at the locals to the Tory 11%. Quite startling for an Indy crowd, even with all the Lib Dem infrastructure they inherited. The last one I can remember like that was the Boston Bypass Independents.
And the Tory candidate is faceplanting so much that he has a turnip on his head. The Crick-ing cut through locally, but it happened in the car park of my polling place so very much in my bubble.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ashfield_District_Council_election
But in 2017 I had a minor bloodbath by calling the Tories wrong on spin at about 380. This is my only bet this time.
Both very close therefore to YouGov MRP's 28 seat maj.
There must be loads to come out
Briefly, the LDs always need to be distinctive in some way from the two main parties in order to cut through. One of the hopes for Jo was she would be Britain's Jacinda Ardern but at the very least she would be a contrast to Johnson and Corbyn and had we chosen Ed Davey all three parties would have been led by white, male MPs representing London seats.
She was one part of the drive to be distinctive - the other was the message and as I argued on Monday however you turn it or phrase it the message runs into the democratic legitimacy of June 2016 and though many LDs passionately believe leaving the EU is wrong (I believe the way we are going about it is wrong) the fact is LEAVE won the referendum, the LDs need to accept that and move on making the argument it is in the UK's interest to maintain a close and harmonious economic and trading relationship with the EU.
You can't have a democratic party arguing for the negation of democracy - that's why I've not campaigned or worked for the Party this time. Once we leave the EU, the LDs can argue the proposition to rejoin - fine, no problem there - but we have to enact June 2016 however much we may think it wrong or misguided.
In a stroke, the LDs lost any chance of connecting with the LEAVE vote or with those who, even though they might consider the vote wrong, believe it is in the interests if democracy the will of the people as expressed in June 2016 be carried forward.
I suspect there will be ample pickings from the Conservative table as Johnson blunders his way through the early 2020s and the departure from the EU whether by crashing out this time next year or via some form of Deal in 2021 or later.
EXCLUSIVE Tory Activist Attacked with Acid in Barnet https://t.co/caW9vEdXo9 https://t.co/Q1LfpP03ZH
London and Scotland are minnows in that pool of 5 fish.
The campaign is pretty much over now, I think. Just waiting to see what tonight's avalanche of polls will show.
CON: 46% (+1)
LAB: 43% (-5)
BXP: 7% (+7)
LDM: 3% (+2)
Via @Survation, 9 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2017.
Good luck to the YouGov nerds sticking that lot into their MRP!
CON 43 (-1)
LAB 33 (-8)
LD 12 (+4)
SNP 4 (+1)
PC 1 (=)
BXP 3 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
Fieldwork 8th-10th Dec
N=1,009
#GE2019
https://t.co/bIl46gbVvN
kerchunk X
kerchunk M
kerchunk A
kerchunk S
So sounds like somebody has been "milkshaked" with something.
My cleaner this morning says she thinks Zadrozzle has it, or as some people locally know him "the one with the funny name".
I think the Tory candidate is suffering from a bit of the Swinson syndrome - a very popular, bluff local Councillor for Labour, possibly f*cked over by the local party (they have done it to others including a former Council Leader) but being too personal afterwards, suddenly put on a stage bigger than they are used to. I did not know that he was a former Scargillite.
The bit about the sex abuse charges is I think a rumour believed to have been generated by the BNP ten years earlier which was warmed over by person or persons unknown weeks before the 2015 election and hit the local papers. In my view the most damaged party by all that are the Notts Constabulary.
I think we want one of those verbatim plays about it.
Probably a very good call by Gloria to withdraw with dignity and reputation intact.
Conservative Central Office confirmed the incident in Chipping Barnet to MailOnline and said reports the material was acid were incorrect.
The activist is not thought to be badly injured.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7781605/Tory-activist-sprayed-perfume-Barnet-raising-fears-acid-attack.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK
Thank f##k for that.
"Number Cruncher poll (exclusive to Bloomberg)" - Who the hell are Number Cruncher?
Was "across the period of Sunday through Tuesday", so peak photo-gate.
CON: 43 (+16)
LAB: 33 (+2)
LDM: 12 (-3)
BXP: 3 (-11)
GRN: 3 (-1)
Via @NCPoliticsUK, 8-10 Dec.
Changes w/ 18-21 May (!).