I wouldn't put it past Corbyn & co to legislate against the free press and start getting newspapers they don't like shut down. The Mail and the Sun being the first two. Seriously, I think they are that mad and that dangerous. If they will consider seizing private property because it's not used in a way they consider to be for the 'public good', what next?
Getting into power will embolden them to be far more radical than even their mind boggling manifesto suggests. Moving money offshore is not as stupid as it sounds, nor is selling off stocks and shares.
I'm genuinely worried about assets and money if Labour win. I wouldn't be that surprised if they started freezing bank accounts of anyone earning over a certain amount of money and redistributing it to other more worthy demographics.
People may scoff at these suggestions, but just remember not so long ago Corbyn was praising an economic model based in Third World Venezuela, a country that is encountering inflation rates of millions of per cent and endures genuine wide scale poverty probably never seen in this country.
It should terrify the living daylights out of every single rational person in this country, but alas, here we are, Jeremy Corbyn could be on the verge of being our PM.
We have fallen a very long way indeed that that statement is even remotely possible.
Regardless of the liquid it’s still an assault and designed to shock and demoralise.
If you are looking for someone who has broken the law today look no further than the Minister for Tory Propaganda @bbclaurak
She just told 2 million viewers postal votes are grim for Labour
Section 66 of the 1983 Representation of the People Act forbids "any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election" before polls close.
The maximum punishment for breaking the law is six months' imprisonment or a fine of £5,000.
Got it.
Assaults are fine as long as they’re committed by my side.
No spraying perfume is not an assault as far as I know otherwise Mrs BJ breaks the law every morning. Actually it is if you know the person you are spraying has an allergy to it. Not the case here
Reporting postal votes is.
You've conflated spraying perfume on your own person to spraying perfume in a stranger's face there. Just to let you know.
BJO is in full partisan election mode now.
Doesn’t give a shit about assault - just wants his side to win and to damage the other.
Whilst I agree he is in partisan mode so are you. The latest reports are that this is not a politically motivated attack. So not committed by his side as you suggested and havent withdrawn unless I am mistaken?
I wouldn't put it past Corbyn & co to legislate against the free press and start getting newspapers they don't like shut down. The Mail and the Sun being the first two. Seriously, I think they are that mad and that dangerous. If they will consider seizing private property because it's not used in a way they consider to be for the 'public good', what next?
Getting into power will embolden them to be far more radical than even their mind boggling manifesto suggests. Moving money offshore is not as stupid as it sounds, nor is selling off stocks and shares.
I'm genuinely worried about assets and money if Labour win. I wouldn't be that surprised if they started freezing bank accounts of anyone earning over a certain amount of money and redistributing it to other more worthy demographics.
People may scoff at these suggestions, but just remember not so long ago Corbyn was praising an economic model based in Third World Venezuela, a country that is encountering inflation rates of millions of per cent and endures genuine wide scale poverty probably never seen in this country.
It should terrify the living daylights out of every single rational person in this country, but alas, here we are, Jeremy Corbyn could be on the verge of being our PM.
We have fallen a very long way indeed that that statement is even remotely possible.
MRP seems to show BXP romping in Barnsley. If you added BXP and the Tories together Labour would be in trouble in both seats.
I can’t work out though if the Tories would be doing much better if they weren’t standing.
I do think that in the Northern seats BXP standing is more of a help to the Tories than a hindrance. Many of those voters will simply never vote for a Tory but they will take their votes away from Labour if there is an alternative
Exactly.
It's pretty obvious from the MRPs and constituency polls that the effect of the BXP standing is to reduce the large Labour majorities in these seats down to within striking distance of the Tory share. On their own the Tories would have no right to expect these to be close.
Which is why attacking the BXP vote is wrong-headed, it'll simply go back to Labour. Anyone still intending to vote BXP is unlikely to be particularly sympathetic to voting Conservative. The Ashcroft poll showed over half had zero interest in ticking the Tory box.
So, at the end of this election campaign, Bojo isn't exactly a messiah for the Tories, as hoped. If he could only barely muster a 10-20 seat difference, compared to 2017. Definitely didn't come across as charismatic or someone with a magnetic personality. Despite having the whole 'leave' vote for himself, a much villified Corbyn as an opponent and backing of the establishment. He still comes across as pretty mediocre. An Etonian, who claims to be a skilled debater, barely drew with a jaded Corbyn in most debates. Besides fleeing from one with Andrew Neil. Like a true sociopath, he does seem to be a genius in stirring the pot though. Which is identifying what really grinds people's gears and playing on those insecurities. In this case it's xenophobia, fear of being swamped by immigrants and the most trending one, Islamophobia. Besides this skill, he has nothing much to offer and was least bothered to even show mock empathy towards a sick child. Some leader, eh
1. Friend who lives in Bolsover, very left wing and was right in 2017 when she said Skinner would hold on comfortably. Now leaning to the Tories winning it, says the only people in the town centre have been the Brexit party, Labour not much. For the first time, she will not vote Labour as she thinks Corbyn is an anti-semite.
2. In the swimming changing rooms, overheard a conversation between three typically North London well-spoken older chaps who live in Hampstead and Kilburn. All declared themselves suitably left wing. I guess Channel 4 did a programme last night that was damning on Tulip Siddiqi and her links with Bangladesh. What surprised me was the vehemence against her by all three. One called her "evil", another one pointed out how she had failed to help in a deportation case of a Japanese national. Now, not much of a point I know but I am guessing a fair few people in H&K saw that programme and I do wonder whether she is safe. Anyway, had a nibble at the LDs winning the seat.
3. I wonder whether the Ed Balls moment of this night might be Ed Miliband losing his seat. Look at the stats. More than 70% leave and very heavily white. Tories at 10.5 on Betfair.
Mr Ed was the name of a very good racehorse. I knew the owner. Are you by any chance related? (To the owner, that is, not the horse.)
I wouldn't put it past Corbyn & co to legislate against the free press and start getting newspapers they don't like shut down. The Mail and the Sun being the first two. Seriously, I think they are that mad and that dangerous. If they will consider seizing private property because it's not used in a way they consider to be for the 'public good', what next?
Getting into power will embolden them to be far more radical than even their mind boggling manifesto suggests. Moving money offshore is not as stupid as it sounds, nor is selling off stocks and shares.
I'm genuinely worried about assets and money if Labour win. I wouldn't be that surprised if they started freezing bank accounts of anyone earning over a certain amount of money and redistributing it to other more worthy demographics.
People may scoff at these suggestions, but just remember not so long ago Corbyn was praising an economic model based in Third World Venezuela, a country that is encountering inflation rates of millions of per cent and endures genuine wide scale poverty probably never seen in this country.
It should terrify the living daylights out of every single rational person in this country, but alas, here we are, Jeremy Corbyn could be on the verge of being our PM.
We have fallen a very long way indeed that that statement is even remotely possible.
Boris Johnson threatens the TV licence when interviews done go his way.
MRP seems to show BXP romping in Barnsley. If you added BXP and the Tories together Labour would be in trouble in both seats.
I can’t work out though if the Tories would be doing much better if they weren’t standing.
I do think that in the Northern seats BXP standing is more of a help to the Tories than a hindrance. Many of those voters will simply never vote for a Tory but they will take their votes away from Labour if there is an alternative
Exactly,
It's pretty obvious from the MRPs and constituency polls that the effect of the BXP standing is to reduce the large Labour majorities in these seats down to within striking distance of the Tory share. On their own the Tories would have no right to expect these to be close.
Which is why attacking the BXP vote is wrong-headed, it'll simply go back to Labour. Anyone still intending to vote BXP is unlikely to be particularly sympathetic to voting Conservative. The Ashcroft poll showed over half had zero interest in ticking the Tory box.
Attacking it isn't wrong headed. Some may listen and switch to Tory and the nevertories will be glad their party is anti Tory enough so won't need to go back to Labour.
So, at the end of this election campaign, Bojo isn't exactly a messiah for the Tories, as hoped. If he could only barely muster a 10-20 seat difference, compared to 2017. Definitely didn't come across as charismatic or someone with a magnetic personality. Despite having the whole 'leave' vote for himself, a much villified Corbyn as an opponent and backing of the establishment. He still comes across as pretty mediocre. An Etonian, who claims to be a skilled debater, barely drew with a jaded Corbyn in most debates. Besides fleeing from one with Andrew Neil. Like a true sociopath, he does seem to be a genius in stirring the pot though. Which is identifying what really grinds people's gears and playing on those insecurities. In this case it's xenophobia, fear of being swamped by immigrants and the most trending one, Islamophobia. Besides this skill, he has nothing much to offer and was least bothered to even show mock empathy towards a sick child. Some leader, eh
And now can we have a fair assessment of Corbyn, just for balance
So, at the end of this election campaign, Bojo isn't exactly a messiah for the Tories, as hoped. If he could only barely muster a 10-20 seat difference, compared to 2017.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:
"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."
Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.
We can but hope!
Of course we can get a deal done in 12 months, it will just not be a good deal for the UK. The EU know we are desperate to get it done quickly and will obviously leverage that. Im sure the EU could put together a deal they would be happy to sign in less than a week if we were stupid enough to take it.
Trade deals have taken a long time historically because both parties have a status quo baseline and have to protect and manage the interests of their economies and industries from the changes the trade deal brings.
This negotiation will be very different, with the UK rejecting the status quo in advance, and we are back to impact of no deal is bigger on the UK than the EU so the EU will again have all the leverage.
Stupid question
Why would both sides not just say "no tariffs, on anything"
end of
?
Because the UK will not agree to a level playing field and the EU will demand that for no tariffs on anything.
THE EU won't accept a tariff free deal without free movement amongst other things.
And Boris can't offer free movement because he wants control of immigration.
If you really think Brexit is finished when we leave you are in for a big surprise - it hasn't really started yet and only starts when we are on the back foot..
So you know that as a fact,how long have you been working in Barnier's team?
It's a blinding glimpse of the obvious, isn't it?
Wow,another expert that knows the exact details of the future EU trade deal.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
Some folk are clutching at straws regarding the oldies not voting in bad weather. They're made of sterner stuff than the 18-24 yr old bracket I can absolutely guarantee you.
That's not in dispute; turnout is always higher among 65+. The only thing that matters is the elasticity of that turnout with regard to weather. If 65+ are _disproportionately_ likely to vote in fine weather, then bad weather is better for parties relying on younger voters (and vice versa). Because the baseline is real elections held during summers and not the average opinion across the age groups, all that matters is the elasticity. For example, maybe the pre-family age cohort has a low turnout, but the ones who do vote are the opinionated ones who will definitely go out, and furthermore they happen to have their original hips and fall victim to the 'flu less often. It's not clear how you empirically test the hypothesis.
That sounds like a lot of bs to be honest.
Then I suggest you do a basic course in numeracy. It makes complete sense.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:
"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."
Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.
We can but hope!
Of course we can get a deal done in 12 months, it will just not be a good deal for the UK. The EU know we are desperate to get it done quickly and will obviously leverage that. Im sure the EU could put together a deal they would be happy to sign in less than a week if we were stupid enough to take it.
Trade deals have tags.
This negotiation will be very different, with the UK rejecting the status quo in advance, and we are back to impact of no deal is bigger on the UK than the EU so the EU will again have all the leverage.
Stupid question
Why would both sides not just say "no tariffs, on anything"
end of
?
Because the UK will not agree to a level playing field and the EU will demand that for no tariffs on anything.
THE EU won't accept a tariff free deal without free movement amongst other things.
And Boris can't offer free movement because he wants control of immigration.
If you really think Brexit is finished when we leave you are in for a big surprise - it hasn't really started yet and only starts when we are on the back foot..
So you know that as a fact,how long have you been working in Barnier's team?
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
Good job you aren't on Commie Cable Co, will have to wait at least a month for anybody gets to you.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
Don’t worry if Jezza wins I’m sure the Victory Broadband Committee will be around to give you your state sponsored free internet if your minihub doesn’t arrive..
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
Don’t worry if Jezza wins I’m sure the Victory Broadband Committee will be around to give you your state sponsored free internet if your minihub doesn’t arrive..
First they have to arrange a committee meeting of the branch local, debate it, vote on it...put in the work order. And perhaps in a few weeks, somebody will be around.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:
"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."
Of course we can get a deal done in 12 months, it will just not be a good deal for the UK. The EU know we are desperate to get it done quickly and will obviously leverage that. Im sure the EU could put together a deal they would be happy to sign in less than a week if we were stupid enough to take it.
Trade deals have taken a long time historically because both parties have a status quo baseline and have to protect and manage the interests of their economies and industries from the changes the trade deal brings.
This negotiation will be very different, with the UK rejecting the status quo in advance, and we are back to impact of no deal is bigger on the UK than the EU so the EU will again have all the leverage.
Stupid question
Why would both sides not just say "no tariffs, on anything"
end of
?
Because the UK will not agree to a level playing field and the EU will demand that for no tariffs on anything.
THE EU won't accept a tariff free deal without free movement amongst other things.
And Boris can't offer free movement because he wants control of immigration.
If you really think Brexit is finished when we leave you are in for a big surprise - it hasn't really started yet and only starts when we are on the back foot..
So you know that as a fact,how long have you been working in Barnier's team?
It's a blinding glimpse of the obvious, isn't it?
Wow,another expert that knows the exact details of the future EU trade deal.
Experts tend to know things. Good people to listen to.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
It's a sign! (I don't know what it means though).
Bizarrely having been told by BT that it would be out of action until the engineer arrives, the guy phones back to say it’s working again (which it is), but might die again at any moment. Or come and go as it feels like.
Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?
Yes because the votes should not have been seen.
Mind you does it get Labour votes out tomorrow and / or keep Tory "voters" from voting
Pretty sure party officials watch the opening and counting of postal votes.
If they do they should be stopped. I think postal voting should be stopped except in extreme or exceptional cases.
Couldn'y it be argued that postal voting a kind of infringement of the principle of a secret ballot?
That is why the law is that papers must be kept face down. The purpose of the verification is to confirm that the identity and signatures of the postal voter tally up with their application, and that the paper returned is the one that was sent, and clearly if you catch a glimpse of the ballot paper then that person’s vote isn’t secret. Any responsible ERO (and most are very responsible) should do what he or she can to make sure papers are kept face down. So as a scrutineer your only chance is to catch a glimpse of a paper as it is being taken out of the envelope. Most people fold their papers over with the printed side inside, but occasionally someone folds it the other way so you might see the odd one, if you get a council staff member who is a little clumsy or slow. But they are supposed to stop the scrutineers seeing the face of the ballot papers, and most do.
I wouldn't put it past Corbyn & co to legislate against the free press and start getting newspapers they don't like shut down. The Mail and the Sun being the first two. Seriously, I think they are that mad and that dangerous. If they will consider seizing private property because it's not used in a way they consider to be for the 'public good', what next?
Getting into power will embolden them to be far more radical than even their mind boggling manifesto suggests. Moving money offshore is not as stupid as it sounds, nor is selling off stocks and shares.
I'm genuinely worried about assets and money if Labour win. I wouldn't be that surprised if they started freezing bank accounts of anyone earning over a certain amount of money and redistributing it to other more worthy demographics.
People may scoff at these suggestions, but just remember not so long ago Corbyn was praising an economic model based in Third World Venezuela, a country that is encountering inflation rates of millions of per cent and endures genuine wide scale poverty probably never seen in this country.
It should terrify the living daylights out of every single rational person in this country, but alas, here we are, Jeremy Corbyn could be on the verge of being our PM.
We have fallen a very long way indeed that that statement is even remotely possible.
Get a life complete bollocks I wouldn’t vote for him but these ludicrous stories about the Marxist future are bloody ridiculous, argue on the facts not on the hypothetical otherwise you are a pathetic troll
1. Friend who lives in Bolsover, very left wing and was right in 2017 when she said Skinner would hold on comfortably. Now leaning to the Tories winning it, says the only people in the town centre have been the Brexit party, Labour not much. For the first time, she will not vote Labour as she thinks Corbyn is an anti-semite.
2. In the swimming changing rooms, overheard a conversation between three typically North London well-spoken older chaps who live in Hampstead and Kilburn. All declared themselves suitably left wing. I guess Channel 4 did a programme last night that was damning on Tulip Siddiqi and her links with Bangladesh. What surprised me was the vehemence against her by all three. One called her "evil", another one pointed out how she had failed to help in a deportation case of a Japanese national. Now, not much of a point I know but I am guessing a fair few people in H&K saw that programme and I do wonder whether she is safe. Anyway, had a nibble at the LDs winning the seat.
3. I wonder whether the Ed Balls moment of this night might be Ed Miliband losing his seat. Look at the stats. More than 70% leave and very heavily white. Tories at 10.5 on Betfair.
Mr Ed was the name of a very good racehorse. I knew the owner. Are you by any chance related? (To the owner, that is, not the horse.)
Mr Ed is also the nickname of Ed Smith - chairman of the England cricket selectors - across the county circuit. This is because he makes as much sense as a talking horse.
Been out on the final canvass of the long, long campaign. Missed much today?
And how was it ?
We will be fine in Totnes and South Devon. We have lost some blues over Brexit, some over Boris. And we've gained some blues over Brexit and Boris. Met a guy today who was sixty - had never voted in an election before in his life, but tomorrow he'll be out putting his cross against the Conservative candidate. Those who voted for Brexit are still as angry about it being thwarted as they were at the start of the campaign. And locally, there is still a huge amount of anger at Sarah Wollaston. I have heard a wide selection of choice epithets hurled in her direction. Brixham (where I spent today) is especially vocal. And it has twice the votes of Totnes town.
Her majority last time as a Conservative was 13,500. In the 2019 sweep stake I have gone for a Conservative majority of 8,888. There is considerable confusion still as to which way to vote tactically in this seat. The LibDdem vote was half the Labour vote last time. Labour have been gleefully pointing out her voting record on everything except Brexit - the only glue she has that sticks her to the LibDems.
So, at the end of this election campaign, Bojo isn't exactly a messiah for the Tories, as hoped. If he could only barely muster a 10-20 seat difference, compared to 2017. Definitely didn't come across as charismatic or someone with a magnetic personality. Despite having the whole 'leave' vote for himself, a much villified Corbyn as an opponent and backing of the establishment. He still comes across as pretty mediocre. An Etonian, who claims to be a skilled debater, barely drew with a jaded Corbyn in most debates. Besides fleeing from one with Andrew Neil. Like a true sociopath, he does seem to be a genius in stirring the pot though. Which is identifying what really grinds people's gears and playing on those insecurities. In this case it's xenophobia, fear of being swamped by immigrants and the most trending one, Islamophobia. Besides this skill, he has nothing much to offer and was least bothered to even show mock empathy towards a sick child. Some leader, eh
Boris didn't think he would be competing with Father Christmas.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
Can you access the WiFi of a neighbour? Ask for their WiFi password?
Is it better or no difference in terms of seats for Tories to win by 9, but it is say 41/32 vs 45/36 ?
There are a lot fewer anti-Tory tactical votes if it is 45/36.
My initial thought was if it is 41/32, that means a high Lib Dem vote and that would be one of two things. Either more seats where Remain is split letting Tories come through the middle, but could also be there are southern seats where Tories lose due to higher Lib Dem vote.
Is it better or no difference in terms of seats for Tories to win by 9, but it is say 41/32 vs 45/36 ?
There are a lot fewer anti-Tory tactical votes if it is 45/36.
Which poll has 45/36
None as far as I know, but I was taking the best Tory figure and the best Labour figure as a hypothetical.
I should remind people that conventional wisdom upto 2017 was the opposite, take the best Tory figure and worst Labour figure. Which I think excluding a couple of extrema is ~ 43/32.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
Can you access the WiFi of a neighbour? Ask for their WiFi password?
No, I am half way up a hill looking out to sea, and there aren’t any other signals that reach my house.
Been out on the final canvass of the long, long campaign. Missed much today?
And how was it ?
We will be fine in Totnes and South Devon. We have lost some blues over Brexit, some over Boris. And we've gained some blues over Brexit and Boris. Met a guy today who was sixty - had never voted in an election before in his life, but tomorrow he'll be out putting his cross against the Conservative candidate. Those who voted for Brexit are still as angry about it being thwarted as they were at the start of the campaign. And locally, there is still a huge amount of anger at Sarah Wollaston. I have heard a wide selection of choice epithets hurled in her direction. Brixham (where I spent today) is especially vocal. And it has twice the votes of Totnes town.
Her majority last time as a Conservative was 13,500. In the 2019 sweep stake I have gone for a Conservative majority of 8,888. There is considerable confusion still as to which way to vote tactically in this seat. The LibDdem vote was half the Labour vote last time. Labour have been gleefully pointing out her voting record on everything except Brexit - the only glue she has that sticks her to the LibDems.
This may be a daft question, but is there a risk that voters look for "Boris" on the ballot paper and get confused?
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
It's a sign! (I don't know what it means though).
Bizarrely having been told by BT that it would be out of action until the engineer arrives, the guy phones back to say it’s working again (which it is), but might die again at any moment. Or come and go as it feels like.
So my election night comes with added suspense.
Wait until labour nationalise it, and you'll be waiting 6 weeks.
Been out on the final canvass of the long, long campaign. Missed much today?
And how was it ?
We will be fine in Totnes and South Devon. We have lost some blues over Brexit, some over Boris. And we've gained some blues over Brexit and Boris. Met a guy today who was sixty - had never voted in an election before in his life, but tomorrow he'll be out putting his cross against the Conservative candidate. Those who voted for Brexit are still as angry about it being thwarted as they were at the start of the campaign. And locally, there is still a huge amount of anger at Sarah Wollaston. I have heard a wide selection of choice epithets hurled in her direction. Brixham (where I spent today) is especially vocal. And it has twice the votes of Totnes town.
Her majority last time as a Conservative was 13,500. In the 2019 sweep stake I have gone for a Conservative majority of 8,888. There is considerable confusion still as to which way to vote tactically in this seat. The LibDdem vote was half the Labour vote last time. Labour have been gleefully pointing out her voting record on everything except Brexit - the only glue she has that sticks her to the LibDems.
So, at the end of this election campaign, Bojo isn't exactly a messiah for the Tories, as hoped. If he could only barely muster a 10-20 seat difference, compared to 2017. Definitely didn't come across as charismatic or someone with a magnetic personality. Despite having the whole 'leave' vote for himself, a much villified Corbyn as an opponent and backing of the establishment. He still comes across as pretty mediocre. An Etonian, who claims to be a skilled debater, barely drew with a jaded Corbyn in most debates. Besides fleeing from one with Andrew Neil. Like a true sociopath, he does seem to be a genius in stirring the pot though. Which is identifying what really grinds people's gears and playing on those insecurities. In this case it's xenophobia, fear of being swamped by immigrants and the most trending one, Islamophobia. Besides this skill, he has nothing much to offer and was least bothered to even show mock empathy towards a sick child. Some leader, eh
Boris didn't think he would be competing with Father Christmas.
He could win a competition though, in fathering n number of kids.
Been out on the final canvass of the long, long campaign. Missed much today?
And how was it ?
We will be fine in Totnes and South Devon. We have lost some blues over Brexit, some over Boris. And we've gained some blues over Brexit and Boris. Met a guy today who was sixty - had never voted in an election before in his life, but tomorrow he'll be out putting his cross against the Conservative candidate. Those who voted for Brexit are still as angry about it being thwarted as they were at the start of the campaign. And locally, there is still a huge amount of anger at Sarah Wollaston. I have heard a wide selection of choice epithets hurled in her direction. Brixham (where I spent today) is especially vocal. And it has twice the votes of Totnes town.
Her majority last time as a Conservative was 13,500. In the 2019 sweep stake I have gone for a Conservative majority of 8,888. There is considerable confusion still as to which way to vote tactically in this seat. The LibDdem vote was half the Labour vote last time. Labour have been gleefully pointing out her voting record on everything except Brexit - the only glue she has that sticks her to the LibDems.
This may be a daft question, but is there a risk that voters look for "Boris" on the ballot paper and get confused?
Yes any one that wants to vote for ‘Boris’ is confused or deranged.
Is it better or no difference in terms of seats for Tories to win by 9, but it is say 41/32 vs 45/36 ?
The difference between the two can only come from minor parties, whose votes are spread very unevenly, so it won’t be a uniform swing (and no one is expecting UNS to ‘work’ this time anyway, although doubtless we will have to endure a night of Jeremy Vine pretending that it does). 8% coming from or going to the minor parties (the lion’s share of such would have to be the LibDems) could make a big difference, depending on where it falls. Since the LibDems are in contention mostly in Tory facing seats, the higher their vote, the worse for the Tories, and therefore of your two choices the Tories are better off with 45/36. In Scotland it could also mean they save most of their seats from the SNP, following the same logic.
Edit/ the other - possibly more important - factor is of course how the 4% differences for Tory and Labour fall in relation to each other, since these are very unlikely to be uniform. But working out who gains and loses in advance is impossible without just guessing at the assumptions you’d need to make.
Is it better or no difference in terms of seats for Tories to win by 9, but it is say 41/32 vs 45/36 ?
There are a lot fewer anti-Tory tactical votes if it is 45/36.
My initial thought was if it is 41/32, that means a high Lib Dem vote and that would be one of two things. Either more seats where Remain is split letting Tories come through the middle, but could also be there are southern seats where Tories lose due to higher Lib Dem vote.
If both sides lose the same share, the exact contours of the split would have to make up for 10 to 20 seats that would go from Conservatives to LD+SNP given a 8 net percentage point swing. I can't see why they would make up for it, so I have to assume it would be net harmful.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
It's a sign! (I don't know what it means though).
Bizarrely having been told by BT that it would be out of action until the engineer arrives, the guy phones back to say it’s working again (which it is), but might die again at any moment. Or come and go as it feels like.
So my election night comes with added suspense.
Wait until labour nationalise it, and you'll be waiting 6 weeks.
6 weeks! I remember waiting 3 months to get a new phone line.
I bet that tw@t off twitter that was leaking the MRP hours in advance is totally frozen out tomorrow of any info from all sources.
Except that he did exactly the same thing 2 weeks ago...
To be fair the previous one I think was ok, because it was only random emojis and a load of other media had tweeted slides / info from the briefing already. It was already fairly understood that Tories were well ahead and YouGov were going to predict decent majority.
Last night he tweeted basically the majority in "code" that even a 3 year old could work out, when no other media people were releasing any info.
I think it’s really hard being BBC political editor. I used to slag off both Andrew Marr (up Blair’s arse) and Nick Robinson (toenails Robinson).
The fact is that as ‘establishment’ political journalists they get privileged information first from No.10 and other Government sources first as they always want to make BBC headline news. And the political editor has to make very quick decisions on that.
So they often end up breaking big news first (that sometimes isn’t the full picture) and by necessity end up having close relationships with Government.
The answer is to cut the BBC free of its licence fee mooring.
They might then eventually learn to find perspective.
Yes they may have to tell the truth rather than just be state propaganda unit
Like the Daily Mail?
I`m getting fed up with BBC bashing. A fine British institution and cracking value for money. I`d pay the annual fee for R4 alone. Same again for The Apprentice and Dragon`s Den. Thrice the fee for Peaky Blinders.
Would you believe my broadband has just died and can't be repaired until Friday. So just the poxy mobile phone until a minihub arrives by courier tomorrow, when I will almost certainly be out. On election eve. How unlucky is that.
It's a sign! (I don't know what it means though).
Bizarrely having been told by BT that it would be out of action until the engineer arrives, the guy phones back to say it’s working again (which it is), but might die again at any moment. Or come and go as it feels like.
So my election night comes with added suspense.
Wait until labour nationalise it, and you'll be waiting 6 weeks.
6 weeks! I remember waiting 3 months to get a new phone line.
In East Germany I believe it was typically between ten and fifteen years?
Been out on the final canvass of the long, long campaign. Missed much today?
And how was it ?
We will be fine in Totnes and South Devon. We have lost some blues over Brexit, some over Boris. And we've gained some blues over Brexit and Boris. Met a guy today who was sixty - had never voted in an election before in his life, but tomorrow he'll be out putting his cross against the Conservative candidate. Those who voted for Brexit are still as angry about it being thwarted as they were at the start of the campaign. And locally, there is still a huge amount of anger at Sarah Wollaston. I have heard a wide selection of choice epithets hurled in her direction. Brixham (where I spent today) is especially vocal. And it has twice the votes of Totnes town.
Her majority last time as a Conservative was 13,500. In the 2019 sweep stake I have gone for a Conservative majority of 8,888. There is considerable confusion still as to which way to vote tactically in this seat. The LibDdem vote was half the Labour vote last time. Labour have been gleefully pointing out her voting record on everything except Brexit - the only glue she has that sticks her to the LibDems.
This may be a daft question, but is there a risk that voters look for "Boris" on the ballot paper and get confused?
Yes any one that wants to vote for ‘Boris’ is confused or deranged.
Is it better or no difference in terms of seats for Tories to win by 9, but it is say 41/32 vs 45/36 ?
The difference between the two can only come from minor parties, whose votes are spread very unevenly, so it won’t be a uniform swing (and no one is expecting UNS to ‘work’ this time anyway, although doubtless we will have to endure a night of Jeremy Vine pretending that it does). 8% coming from or going to the minor parties (the lion’s share of such would have to be the LibDems) could make a big difference, depending on where it falls. Since the LibDems are in contention mostly in Tory facing seats, the higher their vote, the worse for the Tories, and therefore of your two choices the Tories are better off with 45/36. In Scotland it could also mean they save most of their seats from the SNP, following the same logic.
Edit/ the other - possibly more important - factor is of course how the 4% differences for Tory and Labour fall in relation to each other, since these are very unlikely to be uniform. But working out who gains and loses in advance is impossible without just guessing at the assumptions you’d need to make.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been recorded telling a private meeting that the EU would not be able to conclude a full trade negotiation with the EU by the end of next year, as Boris Johnson claims. As the Independent reports in its scoop, Barnier said:
"It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."
Although this will be seized upon as evidence that Boris is out with the fairies in saying a deal can be done by the end of the year (which he is), it does suggest that the EU might be amenable to a face-saving fudge, whereby there's a minimal trade deal combined with an extension of the transitional arrangements for everything else - i.e. effectively an extension of the transition but not actually called that.
We can but hope!
Of course we can get a deal done in 12 months, it will just not be a good deal for the UK. The EU know we are desperate to get it done quickly and will obviously leverage that. Im sure the EU could put together a deal they would be happy to sign in less than a week if we were stupid enough to take it.
Trade deals have tags.
This negotiation will be very different, with the UK rejecting the status quo in advance, and we are back to impact of no deal is bigger on the UK than the EU so the EU will again have all the leverage.
Stupid question
Why would both sides not just say "no tariffs, on anything"
end of
?
Because the UK will not agree to a level playing field and the EU will demand that for no tariffs on anything.
THE EU won't accept a tariff free deal without free movement amongst other things.
And Boris can't offer free movement because he wants control of immigration.
If you really think Brexit is finished when we leave you are in for a big surprise - it hasn't really started yet and only starts when we are on the back foot..
So you know that as a fact,how long have you been working in Barnier's team?
Has @bbclaurak broken the law by telling 2 million viewers the postal votes are grim for Labour in huge swathes of the country?
Yes because the votes should not have been seen.
Mind you does it get Labour votes out tomorrow and / or keep Tory "voters" from voting
Pretty sure party officials watch the opening and counting of postal votes.
If they do they should be stopped. I think postal voting should be stopped except in extreme or exceptional cases.
Couldn'y it be argued that postal voting a kind of infringement of the principle of a secret ballot?
That is why the law is that papers must be kept face down. The purpose of the verification is to confirm that the identity and signatures of the postal voter tally up with their application, and that the paper returned is the one that was sent, and clearly if you catch a glimpse of the ballot paper then that person’s vote isn’t secret. Any responsible ERO (and most are very responsible) should do what he or she can to make sure papers are kept face down. So as a scrutineer your only chance is to catch a glimpse of a paper as it is being taken out of the envelope. Most people fold their papers over with the printed side inside, but occasionally someone folds it the other way so you might see the odd one, if you get a council staff member who is a little clumsy or slow. But they are supposed to stop the scrutineers seeing the face of the ballot papers, and most do.
Am sure that Antifrank was one of several posters (some of whom are still here) who remember Kerry McCarthy tweeting postal vote totals in 2010. She was very lucky to get off with a caution.
Been out on the final canvass of the long, long campaign. Missed much today?
And how was it ?
We will be fine in Totnes and South Devon. We have lost some blues over Brexit, some over Boris. And we've gained some blues over Brexit and Boris. Met a guy today who was sixty - had never voted in an election before in his life, but tomorrow he'll be out putting his cross against the Conservative candidate. Those who voted for Brexit are still as angry about it being thwarted as they were at the start of the campaign. And locally, there is still a huge amount of anger at Sarah Wollaston. I have heard a wide selection of choice epithets hurled in her direction. Brixham (where I spent today) is especially vocal. And it has twice the votes of Totnes town.
Her majority last time as a Conservative was 13,500. In the 2019 sweep stake I have gone for a Conservative majority of 8,888. There is considerable confusion still as to which way to vote tactically in this seat. The LibDdem vote was half the Labour vote last time. Labour have been gleefully pointing out her voting record on everything except Brexit - the only glue she has that sticks her to the LibDems.
This may be a daft question, but is there a risk that voters look for "Boris" on the ballot paper and get confused?
Voters will be mesmerised by that Brexit Party arrow again, and they will top the poll.
Goes to show that online voting can’t be a thing if your connection disappears at the key moment due to a politically motivated BT engineer.
I confess I don't understand the rationale behind such a method in the first place, it seems like working from a point of wanting to use the latest toys and then finding a reason to do so.
What's interesting. All the polls today basically showing what they have for weeks now (yes I know Optimium was in, but I think we all thought 15% was an outlier) Tory lead of around 10%, but YouGov last night said they had been seeing a big tightening.
Comments
Getting into power will embolden them to be far more radical than even their mind boggling manifesto suggests. Moving money offshore is not as stupid as it sounds, nor is selling off stocks and shares.
I'm genuinely worried about assets and money if Labour win. I wouldn't be that surprised if they started freezing bank accounts of anyone earning over a certain amount of money and redistributing it to other more worthy demographics.
People may scoff at these suggestions, but just remember not so long ago Corbyn was praising an economic model based in Third World Venezuela, a country that is encountering inflation rates of millions of per cent and endures genuine wide scale poverty probably never seen in this country.
It should terrify the living daylights out of every single rational person in this country, but alas, here we are, Jeremy Corbyn could be on the verge of being our PM.
We have fallen a very long way indeed that that statement is even remotely possible.
I think a lot of the country does not want a further 5 years of weak governments and fudge.
They just want things to be done and Brexit over with and that means voting Tory.
It's pretty obvious from the MRPs and constituency polls that the effect of the BXP standing is to reduce the large Labour majorities in these seats down to within striking distance of the Tory share. On their own the Tories would have no right to expect these to be close.
Which is why attacking the BXP vote is wrong-headed, it'll simply go back to Labour. Anyone still intending to vote BXP is unlikely to be particularly sympathetic to voting Conservative. The Ashcroft poll showed over half had zero interest in ticking the Tory box.
Despite having the whole 'leave' vote for himself, a much villified Corbyn as an opponent and backing of the establishment. He still comes across as pretty mediocre. An Etonian, who claims to be a skilled debater, barely drew with a jaded Corbyn in most debates. Besides fleeing from one with Andrew Neil.
Like a true sociopath, he does seem to be a genius in stirring the pot though. Which is identifying what really grinds people's gears and playing on those insecurities. In this case it's xenophobia, fear of being swamped by immigrants and the most trending one, Islamophobia. Besides this skill, he has nothing much to offer and was least bothered to even show mock empathy towards a sick child. Some leader, eh
Wow,another expert that knows the exact details of the future EU trade deal.
How many seats do you think the SNP will win?
My condolences, however.
Francis Pym, Tory MP, 1983 I think.
I bet that tw@t off twitter that was leaking the MRP hours in advance is totally frozen out tomorrow of any info from all sources.
So my election night comes with added suspense.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K-ABf5qs4zTFzHv6koLY0mEJyGi2VGWF4sWswDmJquk/edit#gid=0
This is the big unknown...Are Labour 32-33 or 35-36.
Her majority last time as a Conservative was 13,500. In the 2019 sweep stake I have gone for a Conservative majority of 8,888. There is considerable confusion still as to which way to vote tactically in this seat. The LibDdem vote was half the Labour vote last time. Labour have been gleefully pointing out her voting record on everything except Brexit - the only glue she has that sticks her to the LibDems.
Is it better or no difference in terms of seats for Tories to win by 9, but it is say 41/32 vs 45/36 ?
Boris didn't think he would be competing with Father Christmas.
I should remind people that conventional wisdom upto 2017 was the opposite, take the best Tory figure and worst Labour figure. Which I think excluding a couple of extrema is ~ 43/32.
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1204826738011910149?s=21
Edit/ the other - possibly more important - factor is of course how the 4% differences for Tory and Labour fall in relation to each other, since these are very unlikely to be uniform. But working out who gains and loses in advance is impossible without just guessing at the assumptions you’d need to make.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-29932216/bbc-rewind-tony-benn-loses-bristol-east
6 weeks! I remember waiting 3 months to get a new phone line.
Last night he tweeted basically the majority in "code" that even a 3 year old could work out, when no other media people were releasing any info.
I`m getting fed up with BBC bashing. A fine British institution and cracking value for money. I`d pay the annual fee for R4 alone. Same again for The Apprentice and Dragon`s Den. Thrice the fee for Peaky Blinders.
I`ll line them up, you ....
JOHNSON NET -3
Badly 48%
Well 45%
Don't know 7%
CORBYN NET -37
Badly 65%
Well 28%
Don't know 7%
Deltapoll 5-7 Dec
#GE2019 #Brexit