Also something to watch out for in terms of 2017 repeated is any more seats becoming marginals
That's one of the most interesting questions. Usually the number of marginal seats doesn't change much, but it did in Scotland last time, so it is possible.
It is the movement that we need to look for today, not the figures. All fieldwork after phonegate, slight tory drop, labour vote hardening, if that repeats across the board then it gets tight.....
The 'fake nurse' who pretended to be a NHS worker in a Labour election broadcast only has experience nursing a fellow actress in a BBC drama.
Rhian Cheyne, 33, appeared in a Welsh Labour TV advert where she pleaded with viewers to vote for the party and warned that the Conservatives want to 'sell off the NHS to Donald Trump'.
But it later emerged she was an actress and Labour was forced to axe the campaign as it broke election broadcast rules.
Ms Cheyne does not work for the NHS. She is a mother-of-one from Cardiff who also works as a drama teacher.
My betting view from the start has been for big Con majority. I'm sticking with that but in truth it would be best described now as pure impressionistic hunch. I await the exit poll tomorrow with genuine uncertainty and hence excitement. For my wallet, c'mon you Tories. For the country, c'mon you Hung Parliament!
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put in another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
If diehard Remainers get their way, they are very likely to precipitate exactly the No Deal crash-out they claim to fear most. And it will serve them right.
For the record, I voted Remain myself, but FFS I have some sense of priorities.
So, returning to my question, how can a 31/1 "No Deal" be averted? CP won`t be able to get their deal through as they have no majority and remainer MPs will sniff the possibility of a referendum. CP won`t offer a referendum (they would prefer "No Deal" on 31/1 to that). No compliant Speaker to allow a Benn Act 2. CP won`t ask EU for an extention, and parliament will not be able to force one.
There could be another GE after a VONC, but not until after we have exited 31/1.
This is exactly my take on it. The only outcomes I can see that avoid a No Deal are a reasonable Tory majority or a Lib/Lab/SNP Coalition. And I just don't think the numbers are there for the latter.
Anyone who wants to avoid a No Deal really does need to be hoping for a 20+ Tory majority tomorrow.
That’s a good point . If it’s to be a majority then it’s better if it’s enough to get the deal through and allow some manoeuvre for Johnson given the news about the WTO today .
As you know I’m not a Tory supporter ! But the worst outcome is a hung parliament with the DUP giving them a majority . So I either want a hung parliament where the Tories can’t form a government or the Tories with a decent but not huge majority .
This is for purely selfish reasons I admit . I need the transition period as I’m still waiting for my dual nationality paperwork to be processed !
My betting view from the start has been for big Con majority. I'm sticking with that but in truth it would be best described now as pure impressionistic hunch. I await the exit poll tomorrow with genuine uncertainty and hence excitement. For my wallet, c'mon you Tories. For the country, c'mon you Hung Parliament!
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put in another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
If diehard Remainers get their way, they are very likely to precipitate exactly the No Deal crash-out they claim to fear most. And it will serve them right.
For the record, I voted Remain myself, but FFS I have some sense of priorities.
So, returning to my question, how can a 31/1 "No Deal" be averted? CP won`t be able to get their deal through as they have no majority and remainer MPs will sniff the possibility of a referendum. CP won`t offer a referendum (they would prefer "No Deal" on 31/1 to that). No compliant Speaker to allow a Benn Act 2. CP won`t ask EU for an extention, and parliament will not be able to force one.
There could be another GE after a VONC, but not until after we have exited 31/1.
This is exactly my take on it. The only outcomes I can see that avoid a No Deal are a reasonable Tory majority or a Lib/Lab/SNP Coalition. And I just don't think the numbers are there for the latter.
Anyone who wants to avoid a No Deal really does need to be hoping for a 20+ Tory majority tomorrow.
That’s a good point . If it’s to be a majority then it’s better if it’s enough to get the deal through and allow some manoeuvre for Johnson given the news about the WTO today .
As you know I’m not a Tory supporter ! But the worst outcome is a hung parliament with the DUP giving them a majority . So I either want a hung parliament where the Tories can’t form a government or the Tories with a decent but not huge majority .
This is for purely selfish reasons I admit . I need the transition period as I’m still waiting for my dual nationality paperwork to be processed !
The answer is obvious based on the MRP range: Vote Conservative!
Because I like winding you up, theres been about a 10 point range in the upper and lower leads throughout so if opinium is 12, the lowest may be a 2 point lead!! Ajd an average of 7 and bang on HP border
My betting view from the start has been for big Con majority. I'm sticking with that but in truth it would be best described now as pure impressionistic hunch. I await the exit poll tomorrow with genuine uncertainty and hence excitement. For my wallet, c'mon you Tories. For the country, c'mon you Hung Parliament!
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put in another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
If diehard Remainers get their way, they are very likely to precipitate exactly the No Deal crash-out they claim to fear most. And it will serve them right.
For the record, I voted Remain myself, but FFS I have some sense of priorities.
So, returning to my question, how can a 31/1 "No Deal" be averted? CP won`t be able to get their deal through as they have no majority and remainer MPs will sniff the possibility of a referendum. CP won`t offer a referendum (they would prefer "No Deal" on 31/1 to that). No compliant Speaker to allow a Benn Act 2. CP won`t ask EU for an extention, and parliament will not be able to force one.
There could be another GE after a VONC, but not until after we have exited 31/1.
This is exactly my take on it. The only outcomes I can see that avoid a No Deal are a reasonable Tory majority or a Lib/Lab/SNP Coalition. And I just don't think the numbers are there for the latter.
Anyone who wants to avoid a No Deal really does need to be hoping for a 20+ Tory majority tomorrow.
That’s a good point . If it’s to be a majority then it’s better if it’s enough to get the deal through and allow some manoeuvre for Johnson given the news about the WTO today .
As you know I’m not a Tory supporter ! But the worst outcome is a hung parliament with the DUP giving them a majority . So I either want a hung parliament where the Tories can’t form a government or the Tories with a decent but not huge majority .
This is for purely selfish reasons I admit . I need the transition period as I’m still waiting for my dual nationality paperwork to be processed !
The answer is obvious based on the MRP range: Vote Conservative!
I know you love a woolies mum and dad story so I'm happy to confirm their postals have been sent at the weekend. Mum voted Tory but is convinced that awful Corbyn will win, dad just growled about doing what he was told, so a reluctant tory vote or get no tea for a month. Clive Lewis will be shitting it
A tidbit from yesterday I'll remind you of. The NE has some of the highest postal vote take up. So it may help the Tories BUT those early declarations may also show a bigger than expected swing that doesn't translate later.....
LOADS of Lib Dem posters in Eastbourne. Taxi driver voting Tory to Get Brexit Done.
Natch ;-)
Eastbourne is one where the Conservatives *should* win.
The only reason to think it might be a LD hold is that the incumbent is practically an independent who spent most of the '17-'19 parliament stripped of the LD whip because he voted for Mrs May's deal.
Putting aside MRP, which is what it is (and people do seem to believe) and putting aside averages, which by definition are just an amalgam of the best and the worst:
Who is the pollster that you actually believe? Who has the most convincing methodology? When it comes to placing bets, who is your Gold Standard?
LOADS of Lib Dem posters in Eastbourne. Taxi driver voting Tory to Get Brexit Done.
Natch ;-)
Eastbourne is one where the Conservatives *should* win.
The only reason to think it might be a LD hold is that the incumbent is practically an independent who spent most of the '17-'19 parliament stripped of the LD whip because he voted for Mrs May's deal.
Taxi driver told me he likes Stephen Lloyd - for his stance on May's deal - but will be voting blue to make sure Boris's deal doesn't go the same way as hers.
The exit poll isn’t a representative sample of polling stations. They are skewed towards marginal seats but there are a fair number of safe seats too, to pick up any differential swings there. The key to its accuracy is that it measures the change in party support in the same polling location as last time, in the great majority of cases. Change in party support varies far less than the absolute level of party support.
In recent elections they have added more polling locations to Scotland and (I think) Wales, as they were thin on the ground there.
I've just placed a bet on Conservatives to be over 340.5 seats. I had a chat with my brother (who lives in a very different part of the country to me) after the YouGov MRP came out. Neither of us are Conservative voters but, equally, neither of us believe the MRP. I think the Conservatives will do about 15 or 20 seats better than it and my brother thinks they're still on for a landslide. We might both be very wrong but, luckily, I only bet with small stakes.
Survation has been confirmed, we'll probably get a ComRes (it's their usually polling day) and Kantar (should've been published yesterday). I'd expect a few others like Panelbase and Ipsos, as their last poll is rather outdated, but nothing confirmed afaik.
I am now reconciled to a Hung Parliament, and Jeremy Jew-Hater Corbyn PM. I am arranging my affairs accordingly.
It's like accepting you have cancer. Once you do it, things weirdly improve, as you are now dealing with reality, rather than phantoms and miasmas
It`s like dropping stuff off at the tip. You dread it for ages but feel a strange release once done.
Likewise tax returns (which I just did). I loathe doing these returns, and feel nauseous up to the point I finally do them, then a calm overcomes me, and I feel a modest elation when they are completed.
LOADS of Lib Dem posters in Eastbourne. Taxi driver voting Tory to Get Brexit Done.
Natch ;-)
Eastbourne is one where the Conservatives *should* win.
The only reason to think it might be a LD hold is that the incumbent is practically an independent who spent most of the '17-'19 parliament stripped of the LD whip because he voted for Mrs May's deal.
Strange. I would have guessed that he pissed off half his own voters by resigning the whip, then all the Tory voters by taking it back. Seems bonkers.
Survation has been confirmed, we'll probably get a ComRes (it's their usually polling day) and Kantar (should've been published yesterday). I'd expect a few others like Panelbase and Ipsos, as their last poll is rather outdated, but nothing confirmed afaik.
Ipsos will be out tomorrow morning in the Standard, the others should report today. We may get a final ICM and normal yougov too
Survation has been confirmed, we'll probably get a ComRes (it's their usually polling day) and Kantar (should've been published yesterday). I'd expect a few others like Panelbase and Ipsos, as their last poll is rather outdated, but nothing confirmed afaik.
TY Survation is our favourite. Unless its 4% lead in which case it isn't.
I think Survation will be 43% - 32%. But I might be wrong.
Don't worry about the "Charts" tab, they are just placeholders. But fingers crossed on the night everything should update auto-magically.
In the "all seats" tab, are the scores for each party representative of a Con Maj of 30 (last nights MRP)?
Yes, they are last nights MRP data. The blanks should automagically fill in with the results as seats are declared.
This has all been automatically generated, so there might be bugs...I hope not too many. I do know if terms of seat totals they are slightly off from the MRP announcement as in the data YouGov don't tell you know wins if %'s are tied.
The MRP has previously understated the Tories. Maybe there is still a ‘shy’ factor even online, or perhaps there tends to be a small swingback to governments on the final couple of days? And the self-admitted weakspots of the model suggest a risk of understating localised campaigns by the smaller parties, which will tend to downplay the LibDems.
Therefore the position being taken by punters does appear logical.
I am now reconciled to a Hung Parliament, and Jeremy Jew-Hater Corbyn PM. I am arranging my affairs accordingly.
It's like accepting you have cancer. Once you do it, things weirdly improve, as you are now dealing with reality, rather than phantoms and miasmas
It`s like dropping stuff off at the tip. You dread it for ages but feel a strange release once done.
Likewise tax returns (which I just did). I loathe doing these returns, and feel nauseous up to the point I finally do them, then a calm overcomes me, and I feel a modest elation when they are completed.
Like shagging one`s own wife?
Brilliant. Except you forgot the bit where, whilst doing them, you imagine doing other tax returns.
Survation has been confirmed, we'll probably get a ComRes (it's their usually polling day) and Kantar (should've been published yesterday). I'd expect a few others like Panelbase and Ipsos, as their last poll is rather outdated, but nothing confirmed afaik.
Ipsos will be out tomorrow morning in the Standard, the others should report today. We may get a final ICM and normal yougov too
I didn't think polls were allowed to be released on election day itself?
Survation has been confirmed, we'll probably get a ComRes (it's their usually polling day) and Kantar (should've been published yesterday). I'd expect a few others like Panelbase and Ipsos, as their last poll is rather outdated, but nothing confirmed afaik.
TY Survation is our favourite. Unless its 4% lead in which case it isn't.
I think Survation will be 43% - 32%. But I might be wrong.
From what I've understood last poll's unexpected widening of the tory lead was mainly due to changes in their weighting, which is also more in line with their constituency polling (15% lead in Wrexham for instance, hardly compatible with the 9% national lead they used to have). I think it'll probably be a smaller lead than the previous poll, but if the last one indeed had to do with methodology and not chance they might still have an 11-12% lead. It would then be interesting to see if they're right, as they were in 2017.
It's definitely the poll I'm expecting the most today.
LOADS of Lib Dem posters in Eastbourne. Taxi driver voting Tory to Get Brexit Done.
Natch ;-)
Eastbourne is one where the Conservatives *should* win.
The only reason to think it might be a LD hold is that the incumbent is practically an independent who spent most of the '17-'19 parliament stripped of the LD whip because he voted for Mrs May's deal.
Taken that as a tip, MRP looks good for it, 49con/39lib. 4/6 not bad odds.
You do know that if the Tories stay in power, you'll be forever known as IncorrectHorseBattery, right?
I've enjoyed following CHB's posts. If anything I get a bit of a Plato (RIP) vibe off him(Is CHB a him? I'assuming so). Plato may have gone properly down the rabbit hole towards the end, but she was more tuned into the result of the 2016 US Presidential election than anyone else on this site was.
There are few Corbynites on this board and even fewer young ones. If the under 35s do turn out in their droves for Corbyn while enough traditional WWC votes either come home or decide to stay at home on the day, there will be a lot of people here with egg on their faces.
I'm still predicting a slim Con majority but it is always wise to remember that we all live in our echo chambers and dissenting voices are good for us.
Survation has been confirmed, we'll probably get a ComRes (it's their usually polling day) and Kantar (should've been published yesterday). I'd expect a few others like Panelbase and Ipsos, as their last poll is rather outdated, but nothing confirmed afaik.
Ipsos will be out tomorrow morning in the Standard, the others should report today. We may get a final ICM and normal yougov too
I didn't think polls were allowed to be released on election day itself?
As ,long as fieldwork completes before they can. Theres always an ES mori on polling day
Don't worry about the "Charts" tab, they are just placeholders. But fingers crossed on the night everything should update auto-magically.
In the "all seats" tab, are the scores for each party representative of a Con Maj of 30 (last nights MRP)?
Yes, they are last nights MRP data. The blanks should automagically fill in with the results as seats are declared.
Wow, snazzy! Look forward to using it
I've built this up...if it doesn't work, I think I will have to retire in shame from PB.
The first MRP said Con Maj of 68 and the second of 30 right?
Correct...
I think the main thing I will try my best to keep on top of is the seat results vs YouGov MRP and prediction as best I can. I am not trying to match the BBC / Sky with a results service, more to try to see how well parties are doing vs MRP, because that is where the betting opportunities are e.g. Obviously if Tories look like they are underperforming vs MRP, you know where to pile your cash.
I predict by 3am we should have a good idea about this.
I've updated the candidates list with a new sheet, sheet 3, which lists candidates alphabetically in each constituency. This will be the order that the returning officer reads out the results on election night, which might be useful.
Can we all agree the highlight of tomorrow is going to be Sir John Curtice
Don't forget about Michael Thrasher on Sky News. They work together on election day, receiving the exit poll data and analysing it. Colin Rallings is usually the ITV expert.
You do know that if the Tories stay in power, you'll be forever known as IncorrectHorseBattery, right?
I've enjoyed following CHB's posts. If anything I get a bit of a Plato (RIP) vibe off him(Is CHB a him? I'assuming so). Plato may have gone properly down the rabbit hole towards the end, but she was more tuned into the result of the 2016 US Presidential election than anyone else on this site was.
There are few Corbynites on this board and even fewer young ones. If the under 35s do turn out in their droves for Corbyn while enough traditional WWC votes either come home or decide to stay at home on the day, there will be a lot of people here with egg on their faces.
I'm still predicting a slim Con majority but it is always wise to remember that we all live in our echo chambers and dissenting voices are good for us.
I think CHB is a cracking addition to the site. He is willing to show when he is worried as well as being a cheerleader for the Corbynite wing. And, occasional meltdowns aside, he does it with good humour and intelligence. I would suggest it is a sign of his quality that he is one of the few Labour posters who worry me that they might be correct.
Don't worry about the "Charts" tab, they are just placeholders. But fingers crossed on the night everything should update auto-magically.
Where are you pulling data from ?
The historical stuff I found on a number of websites.
Live - I have a scraper setup to ping the BBC constituency pages and return the results. So they might be a bit behind the live announcements. This is all predicated on the BBC not changing those holding pages too much.
On the night, I might see if I can scrape the live thread, I will see. The thing that is nice about the constituency pages are they are clearly and consistently formatted.
You do know that if the Tories stay in power, you'll be forever known as IncorrectHorseBattery, right?
I've enjoyed following CHB's posts. If anything I get a bit of a Plato (RIP) vibe off him(Is CHB a him? I'assuming so). Plato may have gone properly down the rabbit hole towards the end, but she was more tuned into the result of the 2016 US Presidential election than anyone else on this site was.
There are few Corbynites on this board and even fewer young ones. If the under 35s do turn out in their droves for Corbyn while enough traditional WWC votes either come home or decide to stay at home on the day, there will be a lot of people here with egg on their faces.
I'm still predicting a slim Con majority but it is always wise to remember that we all live in our echo chambers and dissenting voices are good for us.
His comedic value is priceless IMO. I love his posts.
You do know that if the Tories stay in power, you'll be forever known as IncorrectHorseBattery, right?
I've enjoyed following CHB's posts. If anything I get a bit of a Plato (RIP) vibe off him(Is CHB a him? I'assuming so). Plato may have gone properly down the rabbit hole towards the end, but she was more tuned into the result of the 2016 US Presidential election than anyone else on this site was.
There are few Corbynites on this board and even fewer young ones. If the under 35s do turn out in their droves for Corbyn while enough traditional WWC votes either come home or decide to stay at home on the day, there will be a lot of people here with egg on their faces.
I'm still predicting a slim Con majority but it is always wise to remember that we all live in our echo chambers and dissenting voices are good for us.
I think CHB is a cracking addition to the site. He is willing to show when he is worried as well as being a cheerleader for the Corbynite wing. And, occasional meltdowns aside, he does it with good humour and intelligence. I would suggest it is a sign of his quality that he is one of the few Labour posters who worry me that they might be correct.
Yes agreed CHB is a top poster. But I hope that tomorrow at 10pm he will be IHB!
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
You`re right - they look absurd. Ynys Mon 67% to 13%??
A good concept and the results are quite interesting with over 700k surveys done, a four way split with Labour/Tories/LDs/Greens when people look at specific policies.
Id guess their audience is heavily skewed to the floating voter but still intriguing to see the Greens so much higher and Tories so much lower.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
High Peak, 15% chance, Still at 5/6 bookies' evens.
Don't worry about the "Charts" tab, they are just placeholders. But fingers crossed on the night everything should update auto-magically.
Where are you pulling data from ?
The historical stuff I found on a number of websites.
Live - I have a scraper setup to ping the BBC constituency pages and return the results. So they might be a bit behind the live announcements. This is all predicated on the BBC not changing those holding pages too much.
On the night, I might see if I can scrape the live thread, I will see. The thing that is nice about the constituency pages are they are clearly and consistently formatted.
After your SeanT sized wobbles a few weeks ago, can we take it that this fantastic job (and it really is) is a result of displacement activity?
Don't worry about the "Charts" tab, they are just placeholders. But fingers crossed on the night everything should update auto-magically.
Where are you pulling data from ?
The historical stuff I found on a number of websites.
Live - I have a scraper setup to ping the BBC constituency pages and return the results. So they might be a bit behind the live announcements. This is all predicated on the BBC not changing those holding pages too much.
On the night, I might see if I can scrape the live thread, I will see. The thing that is nice about the constituency pages are they are clearly and consistently formatted.
After your SeanT sized wobbles a few weeks ago, can we take it that this fantastic job (and it really is) is a result of displacement activity?
You might think that, but I couldn't possibly comment....
Comments
I thank you all. And thank goodness there's only a day and a half before you recognise my brilliance.
Lowest lead - 6 points
Average of the two - 9 points.
To quote CHP - It's On!
Rhian Cheyne, 33, appeared in a Welsh Labour TV advert where she pleaded with viewers to vote for the party and warned that the Conservatives want to 'sell off the NHS to Donald Trump'.
But it later emerged she was an actress and Labour was forced to axe the campaign as it broke election broadcast rules.
Ms Cheyne does not work for the NHS. She is a mother-of-one from Cardiff who also works as a drama teacher.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7780379/Fake-nurse-appeared-Welsh-Labour-election-broadcast-BBC-Ordinary-Lies-Rhian-Cheyne.html
As you know I’m not a Tory supporter ! But the worst outcome is a hung parliament with the DUP giving them a majority . So I either want a hung parliament where the Tories can’t form a government or the Tories with a decent but not huge majority .
This is for purely selfish reasons I admit . I need the transition period as I’m still waiting for my dual nationality paperwork to be processed !
Am I doing that?
Am I fuck. I don’t live in a key marginal and I have a 3-hour workshop at work with the CEO. But I should be.
LOADS of Lib Dem posters in Eastbourne.
Taxi driver voting Tory to Get Brexit Done.
Natch ;-)
Nominations for the opposite?
PS anyone heard from JackW? Missing his Arse (not a sentence I'd ever thought I'd write)
FWIW I think it will be very close this time, not the easy Tory win YouGov have. Stephen Lloyd is a formidable opponent for the Tories,
Any more polls later today?
The only reason to think it might be a LD hold is that the incumbent is practically an independent who spent most of the '17-'19 parliament stripped of the LD whip because he voted for Mrs May's deal.
Who is the pollster that you actually believe? Who has the most convincing methodology? When it comes to placing bets, who is your Gold Standard?
Mine is Survation.
Unless nichomar allows me to move into his hacienda
Still looking dodgy for CON with massive LAB surge in polls
Could be LAB gain everything London. Or maybe not.
In recent elections they have added more polling locations to Scotland and (I think) Wales, as they were thin on the ground there.
Don't worry about the "Charts" tab, they are just placeholders. But fingers crossed on the night everything should update auto-magically.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/edit#gid=0
If that happens again it is 45% - 38%
If that happens we might get a MAJ by CON gain Norfolk N, Eastbourne, Sheffield Hallam and Dumbartonshire E! And Oxwab and that place in SW London.
We await the gods' electoral judgement.
I think Survation will be 43% - 32%. But I might be wrong.
This has all been automatically generated, so there might be bugs...I hope not too many. I do know if terms of seat totals they are slightly off from the MRP announcement as in the data YouGov don't tell you know wins if %'s are tied.
Therefore the position being taken by punters does appear logical.
Top work by the way - shame I'll not be able to use it so much as I'll be at a count!
OGMORE CON gain!
It's definitely the poll I'm expecting the most today.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
I have also included the latest YouGov MRP projections for easy comparison.
With one or two glaring exceptions, the two projections match up quite well, certainly within the margins of error.
There are few Corbynites on this board and even fewer young ones. If the under 35s do turn out in their droves for Corbyn while enough traditional WWC votes either come home or decide to stay at home on the day, there will be a lot of people here with egg on their faces.
I'm still predicting a slim Con majority but it is always wise to remember that we all live in our echo chambers and dissenting voices are good for us.
I think the main thing I will try my best to keep on top of is the seat results vs YouGov MRP and prediction as best I can. I am not trying to match the BBC / Sky with a results service, more to try to see how well parties are doing vs MRP, because that is where the betting opportunities are e.g. Obviously if Tories look like they are underperforming vs MRP, you know where to pile your cash.
I predict by 3am we should have a good idea about this.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K-ABf5qs4zTFzHv6koLY0mEJyGi2VGWF4sWswDmJquk/edit#gid=82677443
In 2015 when Swindon N declared (about the 4th seat) I was the first to call CON overall maj on this site
In 2017 when it declared I correctly identified that it was a * up
Live - I have a scraper setup to ping the BBC constituency pages and return the results. So they might be a bit behind the live announcements. This is all predicated on the BBC not changing those holding pages too much.
On the night, I might see if I can scrape the live thread, I will see. The thing that is nice about the constituency pages are they are clearly and consistently formatted.
You must eat a Hawaiian pizza.
That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win %
1st MRP 2nd MRP
Wrexham 72 51
Stockton South 81 48
Wolves South West 84 47
Kensington 82 44
Clwyd South 61 41
Warrington South 71 40
Workington 58 36
Hyndburn 68 35
Dewsbury 55 35
Stoke Central 53 34
Stroud 72 32
Leigh 55 28
West Brom East 57 28
Alyn Deeside 47 25
Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24
Weaver Vale 53 20
High Peak 50 15
Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2.
Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
A good concept and the results are quite interesting with over 700k surveys done, a four way split with Labour/Tories/LDs/Greens when people look at specific policies.
Id guess their audience is heavily skewed to the floating voter but still intriguing to see the Greens so much higher and Tories so much lower.