In 2015 when Swindon N declared (about the 4th seat) I was the first to call CON overall maj on this site
In 2017 when it declared I correctly identified that it was a * up
In 2017 the swing in Swindon N was 3.69% compared to 2.04% nationally; in 2015 it was 4.26% compared to -0.37% nationally; in 2010 it was 10.14% compared to 5.07% nationally.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
You`re right - they look absurd. Ynys Mon 67% to 13%??
It’s very possible as we saw last time that the model 2 or 3 weeks outside the election offers a better insight than the one a few days before. Very few minds change during a campaign and especially this year with Brexit. The polls certainly back this up with very little movement from 6 weeks ago. Perhaps the most recent MRP has erred cautiously against Tory gains and been influenced by extra noise you get with the media barrage.
Had some info sent to me from a friend at a hedge fund that suggests after overnight data crunching the MRP very much downplaying the Tory majority and overweighting the 15,000 samples from Monday. They suggest the projected lead should be over 10 points but MRP essentially showing 8.6% lead. They think Yougov have lowered Tory prospects because of photogate but see it as a blip rather than an ongoing trend. They see it as a Tory majority of 60 and are fairly comfortable about it.
Wish I could share their optimism!
Remember how the "hedge funds" and the City got the EU referendum completely wrong, up to the last minute They know nearly nothing.
If I remember correctly the issue was they commissioned a very expensive private exit poll and it turned out to be total horseshit showing a big Remain win.
Didn't they do exit polling in Primrose Hill? lol
Yes, we all remember your commenting on it extensively.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
Well actually yes. The Tories lead over Labour's in the 2017 election.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
High Peak, 15% chance, Still at 5/6 bookies' evens.
The Tories' chances in High Peak are a lot higher than 15% IMO.
It has been nice to read such nice messages today from so many. It is such a contrast to a few days ago so thank you all for your kindness and understanding.
I will continue posting, whether I am right or not. All the best to you all.
I've just placed a bet on Conservatives to be over 340.5 seats. I had a chat with my brother (who lives in a very different part of the country to me) after the YouGov MRP came out. Neither of us are Conservative voters but, equally, neither of us believe the MRP. I think the Conservatives will do about 15 or 20 seats better than it and my brother thinks they're still on for a landslide. We might both be very wrong but, luckily, I only bet with small stakes.
It has been nice to read such nice messages today from so many. It is such a contrast to a few days ago so thank you all for your kindness and understanding.
I will continue posting, whether I am right or not. All the best to you all.
It has been nice to read such nice messages today from so many. It is such a contrast to a few days ago so thank you all for your kindness and understanding.
I will continue posting, whether I am right or not. All the best to you all.
Christ, the sky’s around London are starting to look apocalyptic. Is Jezza one of the five horsemen?
London had the same type of weather on the day of the EU referendum if I remember correctly. SouthamObserver only just managed to get back from London to his constituency in order to vote with 5 minutes to go.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
Do you have a link to their updated PDF? I only have a link to their last one.
If I am being honest Boris has not had a good few days and his many faults have shown up. He is the best, indeed only, choice and it is a genuine lament that we have such a terrible labour leader that we are forced into backing Boris for better or worse
I really do not know how anyone, pollsters included, can predict this election with so many moving parts.
What is happening in Scotland What is happening in Wales What is happening in the Midlands and the North What is happening in the South What is happening in London
And to the questions miriads of answers including the effect of the postal votes and tactical voting
This election is a Brexit election with labour picking up voters who would never vote for Corbyn, to use him for a vehicle to a second referendum and the only way of salvaging remain.
15 labour mps and Lord Sugar all condemning Corbyn together with the Jewish movement and pleading that no one votes labour
Also George Osborne backs the conservatives in the Evening Standard
I am sitting back taking this all in and will wait tomorrows exit poll as the betting at the present time seems to be approx 70/30 majority and for a conservative I must accept that as good odds
It has been nice to read such nice messages today from so many. It is such a contrast to a few days ago so thank you all for your kindness and understanding.
I will continue posting, whether I am right or not. All the best to you all.
There you go. You always bring a smile to my face
And you me. You’re a poster I disagree with but you’re always kind and a pleasure to talk to.
I still believe there is much that unites us, even if we don’t agree with the methods. I am sure we all want to live in a society where we are loved and cared for, with compassion from those we are close to but also those we are not.
Christ, the sky’s around London are starting to look apocalyptic. Is Jezza one of the five horsemen?
London had the same type of weather on the day of the EU referendum if I remember correctly. SouthamObserver only just managed to get back from London to his constituency in order to vote with 5 minutes to go.
It's weird, I'm strangely calm today, unlike yesterday. I am mentally conditioned to accepting a hung parliament (I also win £1800 if that comes true). Labour majority I win £3000. Tory majority I lose £500 but I would gladly sacrifice a lot more than that to see that result.
The waiting is a drag, though. Also, to add to the plethora of predictions, if the Tories do scrape home, I reckon they'll reduce election campaigns to 3 weeks max.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
High Peak, 15% chance, Still at 5/6 bookies' evens.
The Tories' chances in High Peak are a lot higher than 15% IMO.
High Peak was, of course, the second most accurate YouGov prediction of 2017. Con score off by .36% and Lab by .62% and LD by .35%
A brave man to go against such prediction pedigree.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
where can you read these winning probabilities? I can only find estimated vote shares.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
Looks nuts. And I don't buy it. Also how does this tie in with their Welsh Barometer poll published earlier in the week? Not long to wait though now.
"A royal farewell for the king of car parks: Prince Charles, William, Camilla, Sophie Wessex and Shirley Bassey dress in their finery for the memorial service of NCP Car Parks boss Sir Donald Gosling, 90, who left £50m to buy the Royal Family a new yacht"
Priceless headline from the Mail, and a bit of light relief.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
High Peak, 15% chance, Still at 5/6 bookies' evens.
The Tories' chances in High Peak are a lot higher than 15% IMO.
High Peak was, of course, the second most accurate YouGov prediction of 2017. Con score off by .36% and Lab by .62% and LD by .35%
A brave man to go against such prediction pedigree.
Their latest prediction is Lab 47%, Con 41%. That looks about right to me. But I wouldn't characterise that as a 15% chance for the Tories. More like 30%.
Reading the Opinium summary the actual lead is 11.3% .
Labour are on 33.5% v the Tories on 44. 8% .
And the big lead is helped to a large degree by the turnout of Tory v Labour , respectively on certain to vote 86% v 80% .
So if Labour can get their turnout up it would make a big difference on the day .
80% Labour looks very high when you consider their strongest age groups
True , but it works the same for both parties . So people often over report their certainty to vote , so it’s a case of which party does least worst in that respect on the day .
It has been nice to read such nice messages today from so many. It is such a contrast to a few days ago so thank you all for your kindness and understanding.
I will continue posting, whether I am right or not. All the best to you all.
You should. We all have our ways of looking at things and calling results on here. None of us have a crystal ball. Whether right or wrong part of the fun is arguing whether we are or not!
It's weird, I'm strangely calm today, unlike yesterday. I am mentally conditioned to accepting a hung parliament (I also win £1800 if that comes true). Labour majority I win £3000. Tory majority I lose £500 but I would gladly sacrifice a lot more than that to see that result.
The waiting is a drag, though. Also, to add to the plethora of predictions, if the Tories do scrape home, I reckon they'll reduce election campaigns to 3 weeks max.
They really can't reduce it that much. You need to get people to register and then time to sort out those votes.
5 weeks is already pushing it and that is 2 weeks of administration (candidates getting nomination papers in) and 3 weeks for the campaign itself.
Corbyn cancels going to Ashfield, not welcome in the Red Wall seats.
Or it’s in the bag...
If so it's probably in the bag for the tories. Yougov MRP has them 9% ahead and it's the sort of seat where everything is in their favor (tiny labour majority, one of the highest leave votes in the country, incumbent MP standing down...). I don't see labour keeping it unless they perform better than the tories nationally.
"A royal farewell for the king of car parks: Prince Charles, William, Camilla, Sophie Wessex and Shirley Bassey dress in their finery for the memorial service of NCP Car Parks boss Sir Donald Gosling, 90, who left £50m to buy the Royal Family a new yacht"
Priceless headline from the Mail, and a bit of light relief.
if they all have a tale about him to tell it will be a multi-storied occasion.
Qriously final poll, 5-8 Dec, gives Tories 13-point lead Con 43% Lab 30% Lib Dem 12% Green 4% Brexit 3% Qriously is a British Polling Council member, surveyed 2,222 adults via tablet & smartphone https://t.co/ruLDOgVhr2
That's the lot that gave labour a 2 point lead in 2017 but its before photogate etc
Qriously final poll, 5-8 Dec, gives Tories 13-point lead Con 43% Lab 30% Lib Dem 12% Green 4% Brexit 3% Qriously is a British Polling Council member, surveyed 2,222 adults via tablet & smartphone https://t.co/ruLDOgVhr2
That's the lot that gave labour a 2 point lead in 2017 but its before photogate etc
Qriously final poll, 5-8 Dec, gives Tories 13-point lead Con 43% Lab 30% Lib Dem 12% Green 4% Brexit 3% Qriously is a British Polling Council member, surveyed 2,222 adults via tablet & smartphone https://t.co/ruLDOgVhr2
That's the lot that gave labour a 2 point lead in 2017 but its before photogate etc
Do they literally just pop up before a GE and stick their finger in the air?
Qriously final poll, 5-8 Dec, gives Tories 13-point lead Con 43% Lab 30% Lib Dem 12% Green 4% Brexit 3% Qriously is a British Polling Council member, surveyed 2,222 adults via tablet & smartphone https://t.co/ruLDOgVhr2
That's the lot that gave labour a 2 point lead in 2017 but its before photogate etc
It's not bad but
Knock 2% off the greens and add to Labour.
They are the first voters that go "tactically" toward Labour.
Qriously final poll, 5-8 Dec, gives Tories 13-point lead Con 43% Lab 30% Lib Dem 12% Green 4% Brexit 3% Qriously is a British Polling Council member, surveyed 2,222 adults via tablet & smartphone https://t.co/ruLDOgVhr2
That's the lot that gave labour a 2 point lead in 2017 but its before photogate etc
Yes the Qriously! But still time for caution! Remember Boris' new tactic is hiding in the fridge!
Corbyn cancels going to Ashfield, not welcome in the Red Wall seats.
Or it’s in the bag...
Ashfield is a very odd one. YouGov has it as Likely Conservative with Labour second, nine points behind, and the various odds and sods including the Ashfield Independents far behind at 10% or less. But the betting markets have the Ashfield Indies as second favourite, and at one point had them on just 2/1 (now mostly drifted out to 3/1).
I must say I'm with YouGov on this, I don't see the Ashfield Indies, who compete for the Leave vote with the Tories and with the BXP, getting very far here. I hope I'm right, because I sold them at 13 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market and so will do very nicely if they end up third or worse (and still make a profit if they end up second).
It's weird, I'm strangely calm today, unlike yesterday. I am mentally conditioned to accepting a hung parliament (I also win £1800 if that comes true). Labour majority I win £3000. Tory majority I lose £500 but I would gladly sacrifice a lot more than that to see that result.
The waiting is a drag, though. Also, to add to the plethora of predictions, if the Tories do scrape home, I reckon they'll reduce election campaigns to 3 weeks max.
Thank god for that! They should have put it in their manifesto, they'd be heading towards a landslide!
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
On the subject of hanging around after 10pm tomorrow: if it’s a disaster of an exit poll then I may just head for bed. If it looks like a con majority then I will hang around longer. I tend to bail when it goes pear shaped: I’ve never watched an England penalty shoot even if I was watching the rest of the game.
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
Non political answer. I suggest a blue car. I can't see you in red, orange, yellow or green one.
Still not made up my mind. I am apparently like other colleagues been talking to this morning. Mostly do not want the Cons to win a m ajority but really do not knoiw what to do. Votes could go anywhere tomorrow.
Someone needs to shutdown Dr Moderate’s account. He’s giving us amateur psephologists a bad name and I’ve seen people clutching at straws quoting him on other parts of the internet!
The MRP has previously understated the Tories. Maybe there is still a ‘shy’ factor even online, or perhaps there tends to be a small swingback to governments on the final couple of days? And the self-admitted weakspots of the model suggest a risk of understating localised campaigns by the smaller parties, which will tend to downplay the LibDems.
Therefore the position being taken by punters does appear logical.
Rather than shy tories, isn't shy leavers a more likely scenario? This was certainly the case in 2016 when leave were circa 10/1 at the close of the polls. It wasn't tested in 2017 as all parties claimed they would honour the result of the referendum.
That is clearly not the case now so, if shy leavers are still a thing, that would suggest the polls are understating the tories as the only party that will deliver any meaningful form of Brexit
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
If it doesn’t need to be brand new I’ll sell you an eleven year old A4 for that. Only slightly dented and I’m sure the air con can be fixed...
The MRP has previously understated the Tories. Maybe there is still a ‘shy’ factor even online, or perhaps there tends to be a small swingback to governments on the final couple of days? And the self-admitted weakspots of the model suggest a risk of understating localised campaigns by the smaller parties, which will tend to downplay the LibDems.
Therefore the position being taken by punters does appear logical.
Rather than shy tories, isn't shy leavers a more likely scenario? This was certainly the case in 2016 when leave were circa 10/1 at the close of the polls. It wasn't tested in 2017 as all parties claimed they would honour the result of the referendum.
That is clearly not the case now so, if shy leavers are still a thing, that would suggest the polls are understating the tories as the only party that will deliver any meaningful form of Brexit
What about shy Labour because of a toxic Corbyn? Not sure if that's a thing, all my lefty friends are still out and proud....
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
Non political answer. I suggest a blue car. I can't see you in red, orange, yellow or green one.
Too true. I do like Ford chrome blue and VW reef blue as it happens. I also like crimson and ruby red, though. Hhhhmm. I might go for a Fiesta ST. Something to cheer me up if it all goes tits up and Corbyn wrecks my pension pot and share holdings.
A poll with fieldwork dates 5 to 8 December is a waste of space .
We need polling from this week not stretching back to last Thursday .
Weird that they took so long to realise this one.
I’m not trashing it because it shows a big Tory lead . I’m happy to accept the Opinium which was done Tuesday and Wednesday of this week but seriously a lot has happened over the last few days.
The MRP has previously understated the Tories. Maybe there is still a ‘shy’ factor even online, or perhaps there tends to be a small swingback to governments on the final couple of days? And the self-admitted weakspots of the model suggest a risk of understating localised campaigns by the smaller parties, which will tend to downplay the LibDems.
Therefore the position being taken by punters does appear logical.
Rather than shy tories, isn't shy leavers a more likely scenario? This was certainly the case in 2016 when leave were circa 10/1 at the close of the polls. It wasn't tested in 2017 as all parties claimed they would honour the result of the referendum.
That is clearly not the case now so, if shy leavers are still a thing, that would suggest the polls are understating the tories as the only party that will deliver any meaningful form of Brexit
What about shy Labour because of a toxic Corbyn? Not sure if that's a thing, all my lefty friends are still out and proud....
A poll with fieldwork dates 5 to 8 December is a waste of space .
We need polling from this week not stretching back to last Thursday .
Weird that they took so long to realise this one.
I’m not trashing it because it shows a big Tory lead . I’m happy to accept the Opinium which was done Tuesday and Wednesday of this week but seriously a lot has happened over the last few days.
Where we all think we know where and when events change voting intention and none of us really do, we're all just guessing, nobody knows.
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
If it doesn’t need to be brand new I’ll sell you an eleven year old A4 for that. Only slightly dented and I’m sure the air con can be fixed...
Look for something which benefits from the 2017 taxation changes - should get something that will be £20 or £30 a year?
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
Non political answer. I suggest a blue car. I can't see you in red, orange, yellow or green one.
Too true. I do like Ford chrome blue and VW reef blue as it happens. I also like crimson and ruby red, though. Hhhhmm. I might go for a Fiesta ST. Something to cheer me up if it all goes tits up and Corbyn wrecks my pension pot and share holdings.
I think reds fade badly in the sun. I believe that's true actually and metaphorically.
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
Non political answer. I suggest a blue car. I can't see you in red, orange, yellow or green one.
Too true. I do like Ford chrome blue and VW reef blue as it happens. I also like crimson and ruby red, though. Hhhhmm. I might go for a Fiesta ST. Something to cheer me up if it all goes tits up and Corbyn wrecks my pension pot and share holdings.
Forget the ford. Buy this. You will not regret it.
LOADS of Lib Dem posters in Eastbourne. Taxi driver voting Tory to Get Brexit Done.
Natch ;-)
Eastbourne is one where the Conservatives *should* win.
The only reason to think it might be a LD hold is that the incumbent is practically an independent who spent most of the '17-'19 parliament stripped of the LD whip because he voted for Mrs May's deal.
Strange. I would have guessed that he pissed off half his own voters by resigning the whip, then all the Tory voters by taking it back. Seems bonkers.
He didn't resign the whip. He made it clear in his literature ahead of the 2017 General Election that he would respect the referendum result. When he voted for the deal, the LDs kicked him out. About three months ago, the LDs realised that without him as candidate, they didn't stand a chance of holding the seat, and so they let him back in.
I think that - like North Norfolk - there's a lot of personal vote here. He won back the seat, after all, against the national swing, in a Leave vote seat in 2017. We shall see what happens this time around.
Qriously gave LAB its only poll lead in 2017 GE campaign 2% but was closer than most pollsters!
Hehe, that was fun. Popped up out of nowhere, caused a bit of a panic. In retrospect, it wasn't that far off the result, a few others were quite a bit worse in the other direction.
Whilst I fully accepted that the exercise undertaken by pollsters, no matter how detailed or sophisticated as is claimed in the case of YouGov's MRP ! & 2, this can never be an exact science. That said, I was shocked by the sheer extent to which YouGov had altered their probability percentages over just 3 or 4 weeks against the Tories winning, especially so in the case of the 18 constituencies listed below where, in each case, the Tories' previously stated >50% chance of winning had now been reduced very substantially and in some instances to them having no realistic chance at all:
Constituency Tory Win % Tory Win % 1st MRP 2nd MRP Wrexham 72 51 Stockton South 81 48 Wolves South West 84 47 Kensington 82 44 Clwyd South 61 41 Warrington South 71 40 Workington 58 36 Hyndburn 68 35 Dewsbury 55 35 Stoke Central 53 34 Stroud 72 32 Leigh 55 28 West Brom East 57 28 Alyn Deeside 47 25 Warwick & Leam'ton 69 24 Weaver Vale 53 20 High Peak 50 15 Ynys Mon 67 13
The complete volte face in terms of the Tories' prospects in these 18 seats, were these forecasts to become reality would of itself seem to be a major contributory factor behind the Blue Team's forecast majority of 68 seats in MRP1, having fallen to 28 seats in MRP2. Yes, political opinions do change, but do they really change to this substantial extent over such a relatively short period of time?
High Peak, 15% chance, Still at 5/6 bookies' evens.
The Tories' chances in High Peak are a lot higher than 15% IMO.
High Peak was, of course, the second most accurate YouGov prediction of 2017. Con score off by .36% and Lab by .62% and LD by .35%
A brave man to go against such prediction pedigree.
Their latest prediction is Lab 47%, Con 41%. That looks about right to me. But I wouldn't characterise that as a 15% chance for the Tories. More like 30%.
I have it as Lab 48%, Con 46%. More like 40% chance for the Tories
The MRP has previously understated the Tories. Maybe there is still a ‘shy’ factor even online, or perhaps there tends to be a small swingback to governments on the final couple of days? And the self-admitted weakspots of the model suggest a risk of understating localised campaigns by the smaller parties, which will tend to downplay the LibDems.
Therefore the position being taken by punters does appear logical.
Rather than shy tories, isn't shy leavers a more likely scenario? This was certainly the case in 2016 when leave were circa 10/1 at the close of the polls. It wasn't tested in 2017 as all parties claimed they would honour the result of the referendum.
That is clearly not the case now so, if shy leavers are still a thing, that would suggest the polls are understating the tories as the only party that will deliver any meaningful form of Brexit
What about shy Labour because of a toxic Corbyn? Not sure if that's a thing, all my lefty friends are still out and proud....
Nah - when one is convinced of one's absolute moral superiority, what is there to be shy about?
LOADS of Lib Dem posters in Eastbourne. Taxi driver voting Tory to Get Brexit Done.
Natch ;-)
Eastbourne is one where the Conservatives *should* win.
The only reason to think it might be a LD hold is that the incumbent is practically an independent who spent most of the '17-'19 parliament stripped of the LD whip because he voted for Mrs May's deal.
Taxi driver told me he likes Stephen Lloyd - for his stance on May's deal - but will be voting blue to make sure Boris's deal doesn't go the same way as hers.
The question is: can Stephen Lloyd persuade one-in-fifteen Conservative voters that he's independent enough to be their MP?
I think he'll outperform MRP in the seat. Whether it's enough is another matter altogether.
A poll with fieldwork dates 5 to 8 December is a waste of space .
We need polling from this week not stretching back to last Thursday .
Weird that they took so long to realise this one.
I’m not trashing it because it shows a big Tory lead . I’m happy to accept the Opinium which was done Tuesday and Wednesday of this week but seriously a lot has happened over the last few days.
Where we all think we know where and when events change voting intention and none of us really do, we're all just guessing, nobody knows.
Comments
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11T6XLQh2ss-Ul9UjG8TzJCvhEFMp0VmsbR8KbSZ_FL0/edit#gid=0
I will continue posting, whether I am right or not. All the best to you all.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/10/final-2019-general-election-mrp-model-small-?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=MRP2_Wells
Apologies if others have seen and posted it earlier.
Labour are on 33.5% v the Tories on 44. 8% .
And the big lead is helped to a large degree by the turnout of Tory v Labour , respectively on certain to vote 86% v 80% .
So if Labour can get their turnout up it would make a big difference on the day .
I really do not know how anyone, pollsters included, can predict this election with so many moving parts.
What is happening in Scotland
What is happening in Wales
What is happening in the Midlands and the North
What is happening in the South
What is happening in London
And to the questions miriads of answers including the effect of the postal votes and tactical voting
This election is a Brexit election with labour picking up voters who would never vote for Corbyn, to use him for a vehicle to a second referendum and the only way of salvaging remain.
15 labour mps and Lord Sugar all condemning Corbyn together with the Jewish movement and pleading that no one votes labour
Also George Osborne backs the conservatives in the Evening Standard
I am sitting back taking this all in and will wait tomorrows exit poll as the betting at the present time seems to be approx 70/30 majority and for a conservative I must accept that as good odds
I still believe there is much that unites us, even if we don’t agree with the methods. I am sure we all want to live in a society where we are loved and cared for, with compassion from those we are close to but also those we are not.
The waiting is a drag, though. Also, to add to the plethora of predictions, if the Tories do scrape home, I reckon they'll reduce election campaigns to 3 weeks max.
Con score off by .36% and Lab by .62% and LD by .35%
A brave man to go against such prediction pedigree.
Tory 352
Labour 217
SNP 41
Lib Dem 16
Green 1
PC 4
Irish 18
Speaker 1
Oh how they laughed.
Priceless headline from the Mail, and a bit of light relief.
5 weeks is already pushing it and that is 2 weeks of administration (candidates getting nomination papers in) and 3 weeks for the campaign itself.
i'll get my coat.
MRP have some LD gains that I don't have (South Cambridgeshire, Winchester) and vice versa. They are completely different models. NB The MRP is not the actual result!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
Con 43%
Lab 30%
Lib Dem 12%
Green 4%
Brexit 3%
Qriously is a British Polling Council member, surveyed 2,222 adults via tablet & smartphone https://t.co/ruLDOgVhr2
That's the lot that gave labour a 2 point lead in 2017 but its before photogate etc
Tory majority of 70
What does your instinct tell you?
Knock 2% off the greens and add to Labour.
They are the first voters that go "tactically" toward Labour.
I must say I'm with YouGov on this, I don't see the Ashfield Indies, who compete for the Leave vote with the Tories and with the BXP, getting very far here. I hope I'm right, because I sold them at 13 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market and so will do very nicely if they end up third or worse (and still make a profit if they end up second).
Any suggestions??
It’s around 10 points without silly Green figure which is inline with polls from that time
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204763123535765505
We need polling from this week not stretching back to last Thursday .
That is clearly not the case now so, if shy leavers are still a thing, that would suggest the polls are understating the tories as the only party that will deliver any meaningful form of Brexit
Please respond with suitable pussy jokes...
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1204775840707436544?s=20
https://approvedusedminis.co.uk/vehicle/201810021079207?quoteref=c835c5cd-d00f-485d-9612-f31f30a5a3ae
I think that - like North Norfolk - there's a lot of personal vote here. He won back the seat, after all, against the national swing, in a Leave vote seat in 2017. We shall see what happens this time around.
-55 pt lead for Conservatives
-before Johnson 35% Leavers backed Con, now 71% do
-Johnson has consolidated much of the Leave vote
Conservatives 71%
Labour 16%
#Brexit Party 6%
SNP 2%
Greens 2%
YouGov 5-6 Dec
#GE2019
I think he'll outperform MRP in the seat. Whether it's enough is another matter altogether.
Conservatives 89%
Labour 75%
Remainers 83%
Leavers 78%
Survation 5-7 Dec
#GE2019 #Brexit
It’s what that Peterborough focus group found. Despised Corbyn but voting Labour anyway because of policies. I bet they say undecided to their friends