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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters on CON & the LDs are more bullish than the MRP projections while punters on LAB much less so
Tories drop two overnight on the Commons seat spread markets following the @YouGov MRP findingshttps://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/8rT1Jqrs7X
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MRP issues about how they cope with already-cast postals.
Something that's reducing my blood pressure a little has been a quick comparison of the ranges of the final 2017 and 2019 MRPs:
2017: 269-334. Range 65. Midpoint 301.5.
2019: 311-367. Range 56. Midpoint 339.
Observations:
1. The midpoint today is greater than the top of the range last time. We Tories would have killed for this MRP in 2017.
2. The Tories actually outperformed the 2017 midpoint considerably: 317 stands at 73.8% of the top of the range. Replicating that performance this time would give the Tories an impressive 352.
3. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of the future, and the better they are predicted to be doing in absolute terms the harder it is to outperform, but even hitting only 25% of the range would put them on 325, which is enough to pass the Deal and govern for some time. 315, which is the realistic minimum to stay in (paralysed) office and keep Corbyn out, requires us to hit only 7.1% of the range.
And breathe!
As we all seem eager to report on our home patches, here in Labour's third safest seat (currently), there remains little or no activity.
MRP gives Labour 68%, the Conservatives 16%, LDs 8%, Greens 4% and BXP 3%.
I'm not entirely convinced - I can't see a 15 point drop in the Labour number and I expect Stephen Timms to poll 75% with the Conservatives on 10-12%, LDs on 5-7% and the rest losing their deposits.
A final observation - we're told this election hinges on labour LEAVE voters switching to the Conservatives but this doesn't seem to be a London phenomenon. Newham voted 53-47 to REMAIN in 2016 so that means a lot of Labour voters must have voted LEAVE so why aren't the Conservatives doing better with them?
There' s a much sharper London/rest of England divide out there but I'm not sure I appreciate or fully understand it.
Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner.....
(Everyone join in).
Alistair said:
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2015 fooled everyone. 56 seats looked emphatic but a lot of them were on small majorities and won via differential turnout.
The tories are consolidating as the Unionist vote and Yes friendly SLab voters are seemingly refusing to accept this are are risking it all with Lab votes rather than SNP.
Possibly , Westminster is irrelevant as far as I am concerned, the Scottish MP's get ignored totally and the Tory/Labour ones don't even attend/speak other than to go cruising in the bars and restaurants.
We could send all SNP MP's and they would still be ignored and derided. Unfortunately too many Scots are happy being doormats and having their lives decided by another country, massive lack of backbone.
I would like to invoke my 5th Amendment privileges...
Bedford, Clwyd South, Dewsbury, Hyndburn, Kensington, Leigh,
Stockton South, Stoke Central, Stroud, Vale Of Clwyd, Warrington South,
Warwick, West Bromwich East, Wolv' SW, Workington, Ynys Mon.
3 seats have moved from SNP to Lab: East Lothian, Kirkcaldy, Rutherglen.
2 seats have moved from Con to Lab: Chipping Barnet, Putney.
2 seats have moved from Con to SNP: Angus, Gordon.
2 seats have moved from Con to LD: S Cambs, Winchester.
1 seat has moved from Lab to Con: Sedgefield.
1 seat has moved from SNP to LD: Caithness.
1 seat has moved from SNP to Con: Lanark.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0
The bottom shows votes going from the Tories to the Lib Dems (Tory vote is decreasing).
Wish I could share their optimism!
Had our second Con leaflet yesterday - Theresa and local issues on one side, Boris and Brexit on the back.
The MRP predicts a halving of the Con majority down to 12k. Think it will be a bit higher than that at around the 15k mark.
4 of them are now neck-and-neck.
1 of them now has a 1% Labour lead.
6 of them now have a 2% Labour lead.
A 2% lead would depend on 500 voters switching between the main parties. The Con maj would be back up to 50 if those seats went back to the Tories.
https://twitter.com/jc753/status/1204424530686619648?s=21
I am just creating a better chart that should be clearer.
I've also reported on Bootle earlier.
I believe it will be a Labour hold.
Lib Dem leaflets are all about Daisy Cooper.
Which 6 are these?
Emotional intensity and memory for daily events have very short half-lives in an age of 24 hours news and smartphone-induced ADHD...
Will this give a representative sample this time around?
Will the bad weather adversely impact people being willing to be part of the exit poll?
Dewsbury (45-43)
Hyndburn (43-41)
Kensington (38-36)
Stoke Central (43-41)
Workington (43-41)
(* assume normal distribution, so 1.282 standard deviations for 80% and 1.96 for 95%)
Might the tories be able to eke an extra percentage point nationally out of BXP when push comes to shove?
plenty of these knife edge seats have a significant BXP vote.
And the only way to do that, is if the Conservatives fail to get a majority.
It has come to something now, when Remains best, final hope is Nigel Farage, but things in this decade jumped the shark four years ago.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/EPE-Polling-station-handbook.pdf
It is like those that think Maomentum and all their alt-media outlets will go away. They won't, because they are now onto a cushy thing, with people donating and subscribing and getting invited onto mainstream media.
Our (southern England) seat is 54/46 Remain/Leave but safe-as-houses Conservative. There is no point the Conservatives wasting money on Facebook advertising the day before the election... unless they're genuinely worried.
The differential could reflect the convexity of the payoffs, eg you could lose a lot more money laying the Lib Dems than backing them, and that might explain why the markets give them more seats than the polls (my forecast is the same as the MRP, FWIW).
The Tories will be disappointed because very adverse weather could have helped them given postal votes are likely to favour them .
I recall from one of the Brexit books I read that Nigel never expected (or even wanted) to win in 2016. He viewed it as both impossible, and also wouldn't give him power.
He wanted a very close result, 48 or 49% for Leave and then to use UKIP in 2020 to take a swath of seats, getting power (and possibly Brexit too) that way.
Instead, he messed up. Campaigned too well but also allowed other Conservatives to take the limelight (Johnson and Gove) which then won it for Leave.
If it was just Leamington, which is where the students are, it would be a clear Labour hold, only Warwick gives the Tories a chance (the villages now in Stratford on Avon or Kenilworth and Southam)
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
Since his magic crystal ball seems to be linked to a future MRP that produces results similar to Focaldata and Yougov, I've tried to find out how that MRP is projecting a Labour national lead in the polls.
So I had a look inside the latest polls, it's impossible according to pollsters who have asked about a past vote for the Conservative lead to be greater than 6-7% because the Conservatives are taking too few 2017 Labour votes.
If you take into account newer younger voters who didn't vote last time the Conservative lead could be as low as 2%.
So that's what probably Corbyn's MRP is telling him.
Of course the above assumption of weighing and calculating by past vote was wrong in 2015 and 2017 by miles because the LD and UKIP did not split according to what pollsters said.
One thing is clear from reading reports of the long distant days of the 2015 election: the parties often have no more idea than we do as to what is happening. Ed Miliband genuinely thought he was going to by PM right up until the exit poll came out.
It may also be true of the Exit Poll for similar reasons.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put it another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
This is May all over again, strong and stable going in, weak and wobbly on the campaign trail.
For the record, I voted Remain myself, but FFS I have some sense of priorities.
The 1976 US Presidential election is a very good example, the whole of America became a swing state.
If the ambition is to win an election then they will probably be fine too.
If the ambition is to create a team and vision to lead the UK through the next decade then they have made a terrible start, regardless of the outcome of tomorrows vote.
In such a case you’d expect a Hung Parliament.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/11/tories-face-loss-of-st-albans-as-candidate-fails-to-impress-voters
The Labour candidate " Rebecca Lury – who has little name recognition even among loyal party supporters"
WillS.
In terms of the rules , you’re allowed to release results for polling even on election day as long as they stopped the fieldwork by midnight tonight .
That’s what Ipsos Mori normally do , they have their final poll in the Evening Standard tomorrow morning .