Corbyn cancels going to Ashfield, not welcome in the Red Wall seats.
Or it’s in the bag...
Ashfield is a very odd one. YouGov has it as Likely Conservative with Labour second, nine points behind, and the various odds and sods including the Ashfield Independents far behind at 10% or less. But the betting markets have the Ashfield Indies as second favourite, and at one point had them on just 2/1 (now mostly drifted out to 3/1).
I must say I'm with YouGov on this, I don't see the Ashfield Indies, who compete for the Leave vote with the Tories and with the BXP, getting very far here. I hope I'm right, because I sold them at 13 on the SPIN 25-10-0 market and so will do very nicely if they end up third or worse (and still make a profit if they end up second).
I'll offer you £20 vs £20 on charity donations for Ashfield Indy vs Tories in Ashfield. My £20 says the Indys will take it. Void if BXP or LAB win.
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
Non political answer. I suggest a blue car. I can't see you in red, orange, yellow or green one.
Too true. I do like Ford chrome blue and VW reef blue as it happens. I also like crimson and ruby red, though. Hhhhmm. I might go for a Fiesta ST. Something to cheer me up if it all goes tits up and Corbyn wrecks my pension pot and share holdings.
Forget the ford. Buy this. You will not regret it.
Well it certainly shifts, but it's not my cup of tea. Not keen on Minis tbh. VW or Ford mainly. I was looking at a Polo GTi, but the missus doesn't like the auto gearbox.
I still don't know who to vote for. Maybe I should read the manifestos properly, which I haven't yet.
Boils down to - Do you want Johnson's lies or Corbyn's truths ?
Corbyn's truths? FFS are you having a laugh. If he believes the lies he is peddling he is even thicker than I thought! They are the two most unsuitable candidates as PM that I can recall in my lifetime. Miliband, Howard, Kinnoch, were dire, but even they were better than these two. Only Michael Foot runs them close. Corbyn and Johnson represent the dregs that now make up the majority of the membership of the two main parties.
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
Non political answer. I suggest a blue car. I can't see you in red, orange, yellow or green one.
Too true. I do like Ford chrome blue and VW reef blue as it happens. I also like crimson and ruby red, though. Hhhhmm. I might go for a Fiesta ST. Something to cheer me up if it all goes tits up and Corbyn wrecks my pension pot and share holdings.
Forget the ford. Buy this. You will not regret it.
At least get one with a Chili pack. I spent 6 months last year finding a JCW with all the toys - I find adaptive cruise control essential on a motorway.
It has been nice to read such nice messages today from so many. It is such a contrast to a few days ago so thank you all for your kindness and understanding.
I will continue posting, whether I am right or not. All the best to you all.
CHB - I've maybe missed the nastiness a few days ago. This site can get impolite very quickly. My rule of thumb on t'internet is to use my real name and to say nothing to someone from behind the keyboard that I wouldn't say in public to their face.
I would that others did likewise.
Please keep posting. I think you're frequently wrong - but that doesn't make you wrong!
Sorry for my ignorance on this, but does this mean that they reduced the labour voting in weighting thus meaning the Labour vote could actually be higher. Or have they kept it the same and the labour vote in likely to be lower than the poll?
Qriously final poll, 5-8 Dec, gives Tories 13-point lead Con 43% Lab 30% Lib Dem 12% Green 4% Brexit 3% Qriously is a British Polling Council member, surveyed 2,222 adults via tablet & smartphone https://t.co/ruLDOgVhr2
That's the lot that gave labour a 2 point lead in 2017 but its before photogate etc
It's not bad but
Knock 2% off the greens and add to Labour.
They are the first voters that go "tactically" toward Labour.
I assume that 60% of Greens vote tactically for Labour so that's 2.4%.
He’s our favourite straw clutcher. Although he did call 2017 right from polls that were out at the time
He's a straw clutcher yet called 2017 right?
I can’t see any evidence he called 2017 right? He doesn’t seem to understand a lot of the polling basics. Problem is he’s looking for stuff to back up his pre existing opinions, hence I’ll trust the polling firms myself.
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
If it doesn’t need to be brand new I’ll sell you an eleven year old A4 for that. Only slightly dented and I’m sure the air con can be fixed...
Look for something which benefits from the 2017 taxation changes - should get something that will be £20 or £30 a year?
Was worth a try. Your budget is about ten times what it is worth.
The only real advice I can give is don’t buy a diesel.
Guys non political question here. I'm looking for a new motor, I've got around an 18k budget. I want something that goes at a decent clip that's not too thirsty!
Any suggestions??
Non political answer. I suggest a blue car. I can't see you in red, orange, yellow or green one.
Too true. I do like Ford chrome blue and VW reef blue as it happens. I also like crimson and ruby red, though. Hhhhmm. I might go for a Fiesta ST. Something to cheer me up if it all goes tits up and Corbyn wrecks my pension pot and share holdings.
Forget the ford. Buy this. You will not regret it.
At least get one with a Chili pack. I spent 6 months last year finding a JCW with all the toys - I find adaptive cruise control essential on a motorway.
Shy Labour effect is real. Who wants to admit to voting Labour?
Have you been on social media recently ?
That’s the same for Johnson supporters.
It’s the people like I said in Peterborough who voted 2017 Labour but are undecided now. Watch the Huffington video. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of shy Labour voters amongst women especially.
I still don't know who to vote for. Maybe I should read the manifestos properly, which I haven't yet.
Boils down to - Do you want Johnson's lies or Corbyn's truths ?
Corbyn's truths? FFS are you having a laugh. If he believes the lies he is peddling he is even thicker than I thought! They are the two most unsuitable candidates as PM that I can recall in my lifetime. Miliband, Howard, Kinnoch, were dire, but even they were better than these two. Only Michael Foot runs them close. Corbyn and Johnson represent the dregs that now make up the majority of the membership of the two main parties.
Of course he believes in everything he says, the man is an ideologue ! Johnson just wants to be a hero to the leavers and keep the economy running OK so he can retain a majority, look at the manifestoes
The MRP has previously understated the Tories. Maybe there is still a ‘shy’ factor even online, or perhaps there tends to be a small swingback to governments on the final couple of days? And the self-admitted weakspots of the model suggest a risk of understating localised campaigns by the smaller parties, which will tend to downplay the LibDems.
Therefore the position being taken by punters does appear logical.
Rather than shy tories, isn't shy leavers a more likely scenario? This was certainly the case in 2016 when leave were circa 10/1 at the close of the polls. It wasn't tested in 2017 as all parties claimed they would honour the result of the referendum.
That is clearly not the case now so, if shy leavers are still a thing, that would suggest the polls are understating the tories as the only party that will deliver any meaningful form of Brexit
What about shy Labour because of a toxic Corbyn? Not sure if that's a thing, all my lefty friends are still out and proud....
Nah - when one is convinced of one's absolute moral superiority, what is there to be shy about?
Proud people have a bearing, they're not screamy, shouty. But, hey, neither of us are Corbynistas so what do we know?
He’s our favourite straw clutcher. Although he did call 2017 right from polls that were out at the time
He's a straw clutcher yet called 2017 right?
I can’t see any evidence he called 2017 right? He doesn’t seem to understand a lot of the polling basics. Problem is he’s looking for stuff to back up his pre existing opinions, hence I’ll trust the polling firms myself.
I asked him. He posted on a well known polling report site in 2017 and was laughed at. You can find the posts if you look hard enough.
The gap will be 10 points. This will mean the Cons will take a shed load more seats than the YouGov MRP says. People will then trash the MRP.
They will totally ignore that the Con majority of 50 seats is based on a series of razor thin majorities as Con leads in seats they hold is cut and they only take seats 30-50 off of labour on tiny majorities.
Shy Labour effect is real. Who wants to admit to voting Labour?
Have you been on social media recently ?
That’s the same for Johnson supporters.
It’s the people like I said in Peterborough who voted 2017 Labour but are undecided now. Watch the Huffington video. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of shy Labour voters amongst women especially.
I agree, the shy voters are key targets, even the BJ love actually PPB hints that the doorstepped woman is an undecided shy voter (BJ avoids engaging with hee husband, although that may be a habit of his)
He’s our favourite straw clutcher. Although he did call 2017 right from polls that were out at the time
He's a straw clutcher yet called 2017 right?
I can’t see any evidence he called 2017 right? He doesn’t seem to understand a lot of the polling basics. Problem is he’s looking for stuff to back up his pre existing opinions, hence I’ll trust the polling firms myself.
But so do the polling firms with their assumptions / weightings. The only thing he is doing here is questioning their assumptions.
It has been nice to read such nice messages today from so many. It is such a contrast to a few days ago so thank you all for your kindness and understanding.
I will continue posting, whether I am right or not. All the best to you all.
CHB - I've maybe missed the nastiness a few days ago. This site can get impolite very quickly. My rule of thumb on t'internet is to use my real name and to say nothing to someone from behind the keyboard that I wouldn't say in public to their face.
I would that others did likewise.
Please keep posting. I think you're frequently wrong - but that doesn't make you wrong!
I don’t use my real name because I don’t want a parent or pupil googling me and then quoting something back at me. I try to make sure that I don’t say anything intemperate but I have lost my temper on here a couple of times.
That said, if anyone reading this also knows me in real life then they can probably work who I am. I certainly work on that assumption.
Shy Labour effect is real. Who wants to admit to voting Labour?
Have you been on social media recently ?
That’s the same for Johnson supporters.
It’s the people like I said in Peterborough who voted 2017 Labour but are undecided now. Watch the Huffington video. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of shy Labour voters amongst women especially.
A poll with fieldwork dates 5 to 8 December is a waste of space .
We need polling from this week not stretching back to last Thursday .
Weird that they took so long to realise this one.
I’m not trashing it because it shows a big Tory lead . I’m happy to accept the Opinium which was done Tuesday and Wednesday of this week but seriously a lot has happened over the last few days.
A lot of people thought that Gordon Brown's disaster with "that bigoted woman" would make a big difference to the polling in 2010. It didn't. Most things don't (the dementia tax was an unusual example of one that did).
Remember a while back the Maltese journalist getting blown up...
Casino owner and business tycoon Yorgen Fenech has been arrested as part of the investigation into the death of Daphne Caruana Galizia, a Maltese investigative journalist killed by a car bomb in 2017.
As Malta Today reports, Fenech was arrested by the Armed Forces of Malta at 5:30 a.m. on November 20 while trying to flee the country on his luxury yacht.
Local authorities believe the 38-year-old millionaire acted as a middleman and facilitated the payment of €450,000 to the three individuals who carried out the execution.
Glancing at the MRP numbers for some of the less definite seats in my innediate vicinity and Dagenham & Rainham will be a nailbiter. 42-41 to CON on the MRP and I suspect both parties will be putting plenty of effort into polling day.
Ilford North shows a solid 12 point Labour lead 50-38 so that seems unlikely for the Conservatives. Chingford & Woodford Green is 47-45 to CON so that's another interesting one.
Some sobering LD numbers - 30% or above in 61 seats. 10% or below in 391 seats. As for the Conservatives, 50% or more in 253 seats, 10% or below in just one (Hackney South & Shoreditch).
The gap will be 10 points. This will mean the Cons will take a shed load more seats than the YouGov MRP says. People will then trash the MRP.
They will totally ignore that the Con majority of 50 seats is based on a series of razor thin majorities as Con leads in seats they hold is cut and they only take seats 30-50 off of labour on tiny majorities.
Mr. Battery, friend of mine is voting Labour. Worried about the NHS.
We had a very civil discussion on politics. The conclusion was both sides are complete idiots, it's just a question of who's worse. [She's in a safe Labour seat, so it probably won't affect much].
He’s our favourite straw clutcher. Although he did call 2017 right from polls that were out at the time
He's a straw clutcher yet called 2017 right?
I can’t see any evidence he called 2017 right? He doesn’t seem to understand a lot of the polling basics. Problem is he’s looking for stuff to back up his pre existing opinions, hence I’ll trust the polling firms myself.
I asked him. He posted on a well known polling report site in 2017 and was laughed at. You can find the posts if you look hard enough.
What about 2015 and the EU ref? Sceptical to believe any random twitter account.
Yougov age weighting’s look OK to me. For every 4 18-25s voting there are 5 55-60s voting.
In 2017 the respective groups were 55% and 70% turnout, so allowing for the extra amount of 18-25s that seems about right. I do expect youth turnout to be down this year in line with Labour’s drop in the polls.
Mr. Battery, friend of mine is voting Labour. Worried about the NHS.
We had a very civil discussion on politics. The conclusion was both sides are complete idiots, it's just a question of who's worse. [She's in a safe Labour seat, so it probably won't affect much].
There is no such thing as a safe Labour seat anymore Mr D.
Shy Labour effect is real. Who wants to admit to voting Labour?
Have you been on social media recently ?
That’s the same for Johnson supporters.
It’s the people like I said in Peterborough who voted 2017 Labour but are undecided now. Watch the Huffington video. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of shy Labour voters amongst women especially.
Why women especially?
Because they are overwhelmingly the most likely to distrust Johnson. I’m sure somebody can find the polling numbers which show Labour/Tories split 50/50 men to women.
Aren’t there more women amongst the population?
You can see it in the younger age groups too, women are overwhelmingly Labour.
Imagine a family situation in a Leave seat. You would be embarrassed to admit you’re voting Corbyn Labour.
I don't even see the problem with private provision. France does fine with it. The problem isn't who provides the care it's that the NHS is underfunded.
Shy Labour effect is real. Who wants to admit to voting Labour?
Have you been on social media recently ?
That’s the same for Johnson supporters.
It’s the people like I said in Peterborough who voted 2017 Labour but are undecided now. Watch the Huffington video. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of shy Labour voters amongst women especially.
Why women especially?
Because they are overwhelmingly the most likely to distrust Johnson. I’m sure somebody can find the polling numbers which show Labour/Tories split 50/50 men to women.
Aren’t there more women amongst the population?
You can see it in the younger age groups too, women are overwhelmingly Labour.
Imagine a family situation in a Leave seat. You would be embarrassed to admit you’re voting Corbyn Labour.
But why would that effect manifest itself when you are clicking a button on a website?
Some sobering LD numbers - 30% or above in 61 seats. 10% or below in 391 seats. As for the Conservatives, 50% or more in 253 seats, 10% or below in just one (Hackney South & Shoreditch).
That's not too bad. In 2017 the Lib Dems only got 30% or more in 28 seats and were under 10% in 536 seats so there's clear progress being made.
Shy Labour effect is real. Who wants to admit to voting Labour?
Have you been on social media recently ?
That’s the same for Johnson supporters.
It’s the people like I said in Peterborough who voted 2017 Labour but are undecided now. Watch the Huffington video. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of shy Labour voters amongst women especially.
Why women especially?
Because they are overwhelmingly the most likely to distrust Johnson. I’m sure somebody can find the polling numbers which show Labour/Tories split 50/50 men to women.
Aren’t there more women amongst the population?
You can see it in the younger age groups too, women are overwhelmingly Labour.
Imagine a family situation in a Leave seat. You would be embarrassed to admit you’re voting Corbyn Labour.
I thought you were going to tell me that they're less forward than men. Notmy experience.
My betting view from the start has been for big Con majority. I'm sticking with that but in truth it would be best described now as pure impressionistic hunch. I await the exit poll tomorrow with genuine uncertainty and hence excitement. For my wallet, c'mon you Tories. For the country, c'mon you Hung Parliament!
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put it another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
Good question. If the following conditions all held
* the government wanted a crashout on 31 Jan * a majority of MPs wanted to stop that * the Speaker refused to allow the parliamentary means needed by said majority to take command of the order paper * it was clear that an effort to replace said Speaker would be unsuccessful
then there would remain the option of a VONC in the government under the FTPA ...and if the prime minister refused to resign, attempting to force a GE which would be too late, then ...it gets interesting ...and I wouldn't fancy the monarchy's chances...
Shy Labour effect is real. Who wants to admit to voting Labour?
Have you been on social media recently ?
That’s the same for Johnson supporters.
It’s the people like I said in Peterborough who voted 2017 Labour but are undecided now. Watch the Huffington video. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of shy Labour voters amongst women especially.
Why women especially?
Because they are overwhelmingly the most likely to distrust Johnson. I’m sure somebody can find the polling numbers which show Labour/Tories split 50/50 men to women.
Aren’t there more women amongst the population?
You can see it in the younger age groups too, women are overwhelmingly Labour.
Imagine a family situation in a Leave seat. You would be embarrassed to admit you’re voting Corbyn Labour.
I thought you were going to tell me that they're less forward than men. Notmy experience.
I think they’re a lot more pro Corbyn than men are. But they won’t decide until polling day. That’s basically what the Huffington video showed.
I must confess I'm feeling a bit sorry for Jo Swinson. As I said before, her advisors must be really bad. It was obvious about 48 hours into the campaign that she wasn't coming across well, but they must have told her everything was fine and to carry on as before. About 3 weeks later they realised it wasn't working out as they'd hoped.
He's always a little fringe however I think C. Murray has produced a interesting article on the constant Conservative vote share %.
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Someone needs to shutdown Dr Moderate’s account. He’s giving us amateur psephologists a bad name and I’ve seen people clutching at straws quoting him on other parts of the internet!
If the figures on the left are accurate estimates of turnout in 2017 then the assumptions on the right look quite aggressive, especially as they are meant to based on historical patterns rather than being self-reported. I am quite prepared to believe that YouGov have good reasons for their turnout assumptions, I am not a member of the tin foil hat YouGov-are-all-Tory-stooges fraternity, but I would like to see the rationale. When voters are so polarised by age polling becomes mostly an exercise in accurately weighting the electorate's demographics, so this stuff really matters.
I must confess I'm feeling a bit sorry for Jo Swinson. As I said before, her advisors must be really bad. It was obvious about 48 hours into the campaign that she wasn't coming across well, but they must have told her everything was fine and to carry on as before. About 3 weeks later they realised it wasn't working out as they'd hoped.
It is odd. Admittedly the transition from a relatively minor figure without much front-line experience to becoming party leader, especially at such a crucial time, wouldn't be easy for anyone, but the LibDems have got plenty of people with a lot of experience, and you'd have thought they'd have been able to steer her away from some of the rookie errors she's made.
Shy Labour effect is real. Who wants to admit to voting Labour?
Have you been on social media recently ?
That’s the same for Johnson supporters.
It’s the people like I said in Peterborough who voted 2017 Labour but are undecided now. Watch the Huffington video. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of shy Labour voters amongst women especially.
Why women especially?
Because they are overwhelmingly the most likely to distrust Johnson. I’m sure somebody can find the polling numbers which show Labour/Tories split 50/50 men to women.
Aren’t there more women amongst the population?
You can see it in the younger age groups too, women are overwhelmingly Labour.
Imagine a family situation in a Leave seat. You would be embarrassed to admit you’re voting Corbyn Labour.
Sure, but there will be people who are in places or workplaces where they would not wish to admit to voting Conservative. I doubt if it affects one party more than the other.
Problem is that judging turnout based on self reported likelihood to vote is surely always going to show error because we don’t actually know until polling day.
Jeremey Vine doing his best to confuse people with his uniform swing target seat dance between wall and floor projections on the BBC News channel now. I'm going to be going with Sky tomorrow night I think.
Sky is going to be a leftie lovefest tomorrow night, I am going to have a look at the LBC offering, it may well be more balanced.
Indeed - if Sky's GE coverage is anything like its nightly Press Review, then we can look forward to wall to wall Corbynite wimmin.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
I must confess I'm feeling a bit sorry for Jo Swinson. As I said before, her advisors must be really bad. It was obvious about 48 hours into the campaign that she wasn't coming across well, but they must have told her everything was fine and to carry on as before. About 3 weeks later they realised it wasn't working out as they'd hoped.
I think she recognised the threat to her position posed by well-known, media savvy switchers Luciana and Chukka. Effectively she's run a terrible campaign to shore up her position as leader by stitching these two up. Won't save her from Layla though.
He's always a little fringe however I think C. Murray has produced a interesting article on the constant Conservative vote share %.
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
This redistribution of the Tory vote is advantageous to their chances, loads more labour leave marginals compared to Con remain previously safe where the LDs need a massive swing to win.
Westminster is irrelevant as far as I am concerned, the Scottish MP's get ignored totally and the Tory/Labour ones don't even attend/speak other than to go cruising in the bars and restaurants. We could send all SNP MP's and they would still be ignored and derided. Unfortunately too many Scots are happy being doormats and having their lives decided by another country, massive lack of backbone.
In this fanciful picture the ignoring of absent "cruisers" surely can't be faulted, so presumably the problem as you see it is that SNP MPs are ignored - the ones who won 37% of the vote in the 59 seats in which they stood. That's even though Ian Blackford gets called to speak all the time and in the last Parliament SNP MPs chaired a number of committees. How would things look at Westminster if to your satisfaction the SNP MPs were noticed rather than being ignored? Everybody would give them whatever they want - would that be the recognition they deserved? Of course if you decide at the outset that Westminster is irrelevant, the question itself is irrelevant and one has to ask why they bother to run for Parliament at all. They don't get discriminated against because they're Scottish - that's just a fantasy.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
It is 1% different to the lead Cameron had over Miliband in 2015 when Dave won a majority.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
It is 1% different to the lead Cameron had over Miliband in 2015 when Dave won a majority.
Jeremey Vine doing his best to confuse people with his uniform swing target seat dance between wall and floor projections on the BBC News channel now. I'm going to be going with Sky tomorrow night I think.
Sky is going to be a leftie lovefest tomorrow night, I am going to have a look at the LBC offering, it may well be more balanced.
Indeed - if Sky's GE coverage is anything like its nightly Press Review, then we can look forward to wall to wall Corbynite wimmin.
Sky's hired a former right-wing Tory MP called Bercow.
Tory 352 Labour 217 SNP 41 Lib Dem 16 Green 1 PC 4 Irish 18 Speaker 1
Oh how they laughed.
Well I would take 10 off the LDs and a couple of the SNP, give 3 to Labour and the rest to the Tories. So, Tory 361, Labour 220.
Only 6 seats for the LDs? It's not implausible as they only have 6 seats that are truly safe, but them losing literally every marginal seat still seems very unlikely.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
It is 1% different to the lead Cameron had over Miliband in 2015 when Dave won a majority.
2015 might have been the exception I can’t remember. The user in question will need to comment as I’m sure I’ve misunderstood
LOADS of Lib Dem posters in Eastbourne. Taxi driver voting Tory to Get Brexit Done.
Natch ;-)
Eastbourne is one where the Conservatives *should* win.
The only reason to think it might be a LD hold is that the incumbent is practically an independent who spent most of the '17-'19 parliament stripped of the LD whip because he voted for Mrs May's deal.
Strange. I would have guessed that he pissed off half his own voters by resigning the whip, then all the Tory voters by taking it back. Seems bonkers.
He didn't resign the whip. He made it clear in his literature ahead of the 2017 General Election that he would respect the referendum result. When he voted for the deal, the LDs kicked him out. About three months ago, the LDs realised that without him as candidate, they didn't stand a chance of holding the seat, and so they let him back in.
I think that - like North Norfolk - there's a lot of personal vote here. He won back the seat, after all, against the national swing, in a Leave vote seat in 2017. We shall see what happens this time around.
He "resigned" the whip in the same way as Reagan's air traffic controllers "quit" their jobs.
I do take your point, but I wouldn't have thought most of his LD-voting constituents much cared for the nuance.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
It is 1% different to the lead Cameron had over Miliband in 2015 when Dave won a majority.
1% different? HP nailed on.
Doubt it. I think they'd still have a majority on a 6.5% lead, as Cameron did despite the SNP sweeping Scotland.
Apologies if already cited on here but latest MORI leader ratings show 8% improvement for Corbyn (-30), no change for Johnson (-14) and -1 for Swinson (-31).
Somebody ran the differential and worked out a HP is predicted on their numbers
It is 1% different to the lead Cameron had over Miliband in 2015 when Dave won a majority.
1% different? HP nailed on.
Doubt it. I think they'd still have a majority on a 6.5% lead, as Cameron did despite the SNP sweeping Scotland.
Jesus. My colleague has just written Christmas as 'exmas' and I'm torn between laughing at him and throwing a stapler at his head. Thoughts?
Staple something to his head.
Did he write "exmas" or Xmas? If it is the latter that is perfectly traditional and acceptable, as the X comes from the Greek Chi standing for Christos.
Comments
*She prefers a manual ride*
I would that others did likewise.
Please keep posting. I think you're frequently wrong - but that doesn't make you wrong!
The only real advice I can give is don’t buy a diesel.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201908121068875?transmission=Automatic&model=HATCH&body-type=Hatchback&radius=1500&postcode=dl30ty&quantity-of-doors=3&advertising-location=at_cars&onesearchad=Used&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=New&aggregatedTrim=John Cooper Works&make=MINI&maximum-badge-engine-size=2.0&sort=price-asc&year-from=2015&minimum-badge-engine-size=2.0&fuel-type=Petrol&page=2
It’s the people like I said in Peterborough who voted 2017 Labour but are undecided now. Watch the Huffington video. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a lot of shy Labour voters amongst women especially.
For ex The pressure on the 18/24s to disavow the tories must be enormous (especially students).
The gap will be 10 points. This will mean the Cons will take a shed load more seats than the YouGov MRP says. People will then trash the MRP.
They will totally ignore that the Con majority of 50 seats is based on a series of razor thin majorities as Con leads in seats they hold is cut and they only take seats 30-50 off of labour on tiny majorities.
That said, if anyone reading this also knows me in real life then they can probably work who I am. I certainly work on that assumption.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/nhs-spending-on-the-independent-sector/
Casino owner and business tycoon Yorgen Fenech has been arrested as part of the investigation into the death of Daphne Caruana Galizia, a Maltese investigative journalist killed by a car bomb in 2017.
As Malta Today reports, Fenech was arrested by the Armed Forces of Malta at 5:30 a.m. on November 20 while trying to flee the country on his luxury yacht.
Local authorities believe the 38-year-old millionaire acted as a middleman and facilitated the payment of €450,000 to the three individuals who carried out the execution.
https://www.pokernews.com/news/2019/12/yorgen-fenech-arrested-36156.htm
Glancing at the MRP numbers for some of the less definite seats in my innediate vicinity and Dagenham & Rainham will be a nailbiter. 42-41 to CON on the MRP and I suspect both parties will be putting plenty of effort into polling day.
Ilford North shows a solid 12 point Labour lead 50-38 so that seems unlikely for the Conservatives. Chingford & Woodford Green is 47-45 to CON so that's another interesting one.
Some sobering LD numbers - 30% or above in 61 seats. 10% or below in 391 seats. As for the Conservatives, 50% or more in 253 seats, 10% or below in just one (Hackney South & Shoreditch).
We had a very civil discussion on politics. The conclusion was both sides are complete idiots, it's just a question of who's worse. [She's in a safe Labour seat, so it probably won't affect much].
Yougov age weighting’s look OK to me. For every 4 18-25s voting there are 5 55-60s voting.
In 2017 the respective groups were 55% and 70% turnout, so allowing for the extra amount of 18-25s that seems about right. I do expect youth turnout to be down this year in line with Labour’s drop in the polls.
https://twitter.com/nickjbarlow/status/1204763800056074240?s=20
Aren’t there more women amongst the population?
You can see it in the younger age groups too, women are overwhelmingly Labour.
Imagine a family situation in a Leave seat. You would be embarrassed to admit you’re voting Corbyn Labour.
I don't even see the problem with private provision. France does fine with it. The problem isn't who provides the care it's that the NHS is underfunded.
https://twitter.com/nickjbarlow/status/1204763800056074240?s=20 https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1204779058955014144?s=20
* the government wanted a crashout on 31 Jan
* a majority of MPs wanted to stop that
* the Speaker refused to allow the parliamentary means needed by said majority to take command of the order paper
* it was clear that an effort to replace said Speaker would be unsuccessful
then there would remain the option of a VONC in the government under the FTPA
...and if the prime minister refused to resign, attempting to force a GE which would be too late, then
...it gets interesting
...and I wouldn't fancy the monarchy's chances...
https://politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/12/11/the-marginals-where-new-voters-matter
There is a reporting discrepancy between the presentation of labour-leave to con/bxp and the con-urbane to lib/lab tactical voting. I think J. Harris picked up on this in one of the last 'Anywhere but Westminster'.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/12/the-largest-vote-swings-in-british-general-election-history-censored-out-by-the-bbc-and-mainstream-media/
Perhaps they tried but she didn't listen?
Won't save her from Layla though.
https://twitter.com/BabyYodaBaby/status/1204768656330240000
Now that is what I call proper viral.
I do take your point, but I wouldn't have thought most of his LD-voting constituents much cared for the nuance.
Not possible.