I see that the exit poll is based on the same polling stations as historically.
Will this give a representative sample this time around?
Will the bad weather adversely impact people being willing to be part of the exit poll?
All the experts say that bad weather doesn't affect turnout.
I doubt there is enough information available for anyone to claim to be an 'expert' in the matter.
Still, it's more fun to visit a polling station when the walk is pleasant and the beer garden is welcoming. It should be law that elections can only occur in June.
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
The view of some people is that he is a coward. What the media need to understand is they do not have a right to demand that politicians just turn up.
Journalists dont have the right no, but politicians have a duty. Voters are fools if they reward politicians for failing to be held to scrutiny. (History does suggest voters are often fools).
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
Continuity May with added cowardice and jokes.
Stuff like this makes me think CCHQ are very confident and just want to avoid gaffes. If their internal polling was crap he’d be taking over the airwaves
Not sure about that. If it was going well he’d be talking over the airwaves. The fact he’s being hidden means they’re worried more gaffes will tank their polling further.
We’ve seen the MORI numbers, that is what has happened.
Had some info sent to me from a friend at a hedge fund that suggests after overnight data crunching the MRP very much downplaying the Tory majority and overweighting the 15,000 samples from Monday. They suggest the projected lead should be over 10 points but MRP essentially showing 8.6% lead. They think Yougov have lowered Tory prospects because of photogate but see it as a blip rather than an ongoing trend. They see it as a Tory majority of 60 and are fairly comfortable about it.
Wish I could share their optimism!
Remember how the "hedge funds" and the City got the EU referendum completely wrong, up to the last minute They know nearly nothing.
My betting view from the start has been for big Con majority. I'm sticking with that but in truth it would be best described now as pure impressionistic hunch. I await the exit poll tomorrow with genuine uncertainty and hence excitement. For my wallet, c'mon you Tories. For the country, c'mon you Hung Parliament!
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put in another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
If diehard Remainers get their way, they are very likely to precipitate exactly the No Deal crash-out they claim to fear most. And it will serve them right.
For the record, I voted Remain myself, but FFS I have some sense of priorities.
So, returning to my question, how can a 31/1 "No Deal" be averted? CP won`t be able to get their deal through as they have no majority and remainer MPs will sniff the possibility of a referendum. CP won`t offer a referendum (they would prefer "No Deal" on 31/1 to that). No compliant Speaker to allow a Benn Act 2. CP won`t ask EU for an extention, and parliament will not be able to force one.
There could be another GE after a VONC, but not until after we have exited 31/1.
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
Continuity May with added cowardice and jokes.
Stuff like this makes me think CCHQ are very confident and just want to avoid gaffes. If their internal polling was crap he’d be taking over the airwaves
Walking into a fridge hiding is surely a gaffe? Not exactly statesmanlike or likely to give confidence he will do well in a crisis?
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
Could be worse: he could be seen as a Marxist and an antisemite...
If the ambition is simply to be better than Corbyn then well done the Tories, they have achieved it and will win more seats.
If the ambition is to win an election then they will probably be fine too.
If the ambition is to create a team and vision to lead the UK through the next decade then they have made a terrible start, regardless of the outcome of tomorrows vote.
The Tories either have no vision (sad) or they have one that they don't want to share with the voters (terrifying, and more likely).
Just to show how close it is, of the 16 seats that were Conservative and are now Labour in the MRP study:
4 of them are now neck-and-neck. 1 of them now has a 1% Labour lead. 6 of them now have a 2% Labour lead.
The Con maj would be back up to 50 if those shifted the other way again.
Yes, exactly. People are being too precise in their guesstimates of a possible majority. YouGove quote 95% confidence limits of 311 - 367, which is quite a big range. Even if you ease it off to 80% confidence limits, then you'd expect* the range to be around 321 - 357. That suggests roughly a 10% chance of a Hung Parliament but also a 10% chance of a majority of 66 or more.
(* assume normal distribution, so 1.282 standard deviations for 80% and 1.96 for 95%)
This is where MRP might still be a good / correct model, but YouGov end up with egg on their face, just because of the size of the Tories lead. It is clear they are bang on the level required for a majority, thus any tiny swings one way or another and then could end up with a domino effect and loads of seats all falling to one party.
It may also be true of the Exit Poll for similar reasons.
It's the area of swings between 2-5%. In this area each percentage point change in the swing changes the majority by 20.
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
Could be worse: he could be seen as a Marxist and an antisemite...
If the ambition is simply to be better than Corbyn then well done the Tories, they have achieved it and will win more seats.
If the ambition is to win an election then they will probably be fine too.
If the ambition is to create a team and vision to lead the UK through the next decade then they have made a terrible start, regardless of the outcome of tomorrows vote.
The Tories either have no vision (sad) or they have one that they don't want to share with the voters (terrifying, and more likely).
I think their vision will be mostly dependant on what yougov tell them the public want to hear. So more spending, tax cuts, increase the debt and worry about it in the future.
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put it another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
Depends on the precise numbers. Cons just short, perhaps the WA passes. Cons miles short, perhaps Ref2. I have never thought exit with no WA remotely likely because it is plain economic madness. I still think that. Another extension if necessary.
It'll be difficult for the Lib Dems to get 20 seats based on the MRP, they are only within 5% of winning in two seats on top of the 15 they're projected to get.
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
Continuity May with added cowardice and jokes.
Stuff like this makes me think CCHQ are very confident and just want to avoid gaffes. If their internal polling was crap he’d be taking over the airwaves
Or *maybe* the internal polling is worrying and they don’t want to make matters worse? Just a thought?
"Stuff like this makes me think CCHQ are very confident and just want to avoid gaffes. If their internal polling was crap he’d be taking over the airwaves"
My betting view from the start has been for big Con majority. I'm sticking with that but in truth it would be best described now as pure impressionistic hunch. I await the exit poll tomorrow with genuine uncertainty and hence excitement. For my wallet, c'mon you Tories. For the country, c'mon you Hung Parliament!
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put in another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
If diehard Remainers get their way, they are very likely to precipitate exactly the No Deal crash-out they claim to fear most. And it will serve them right.
For the record, I voted Remain myself, but FFS I have some sense of priorities.
So, returning to my question, how can a 31/1 "No Deal" be averted? CP won`t be able to get their deal through as they have no majority and remainer MPs will sniff the possibility of a referendum. CP won`t offer a referendum (they would prefer "No Deal" on 31/1 to that). No compliant Speaker to allow a Benn Act 2. CP won`t ask EU for an extention, and parliament will not be able to force one.
There could be another GE after a VONC, but not until after we have exited 31/1.
If anyone can get a No deal on 31/1 market added to Betfair that would be great!
What do you mean Horse? Any change to PR would require a referendum I think. It couldn`t be buttoned-down as part of a post-election coalition agreement.
Had some info sent to me from a friend at a hedge fund that suggests after overnight data crunching the MRP very much downplaying the Tory majority and overweighting the 15,000 samples from Monday. They suggest the projected lead should be over 10 points but MRP essentially showing 8.6% lead. They think Yougov have lowered Tory prospects because of photogate but see it as a blip rather than an ongoing trend. They see it as a Tory majority of 60 and are fairly comfortable about it.
Wish I could share their optimism!
Remember how the "hedge funds" and the City got the EU referendum completely wrong, up to the last minute They know nearly nothing.
This is broadly correct. They are generally good at filtering and monetising information but don't really have any more information than anyone else. I heard a range of views about the EU referendum result in the markets beforehand, there were certainly some people predicting a Leave win but they were in the minority.
A request on behalf of everyone betting, if before the exit poll anyone wants to post 'I'm hearing....' anecdotes can we at least have a generalized source (my own canvassing, mates, someone in the party etc) as its getting to crunch money time for many
Made me think of this line from a Monty Python General Election sketch.
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
Could be worse: he could be seen as a Marxist and an antisemite...
If the ambition is simply to be better than Corbyn then well done the Tories, they have achieved it and will win more seats.
If the ambition is to win an election then they will probably be fine too.
If the ambition is to create a team and vision to lead the UK through the next decade then they have made a terrible start, regardless of the outcome of tomorrows vote.
I think the problem goes back, as so many things do, to the referendum. The question was put to the country (and I’m not going to go into the rights and wrongs of asking it) and the answer that came back was one that few (or arguably no) sensible politicians agreed with. We then had three options: tell the people that that was the wrong answer and take a huge hit to the people’s trust in democracy; try to get a sensible politician who didn’t really believe in the idea to try to implement it (May); or get someone who did believe in it but wasn’t a great politician to have a go. I’ve grossly over-simplified it of course, but have I missed out an option?
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
Could be worse: he could be seen as a Marxist and an antisemite...
If the ambition is simply to be better than Corbyn then well done the Tories, they have achieved it and will win more seats.
If the ambition is to win an election then they will probably be fine too.
If the ambition is to create a team and vision to lead the UK through the next decade then they have made a terrible start, regardless of the outcome of tomorrows vote.
I think the problem goes back, as so many things do, to the referendum. The question was put to the country (and I’m not going to go into the rights and wrongs of asking it) and the answer that came back was one that few (or arguably no) sensible politicians agreed with. We then had three options: tell the people that that was the wrong answer and take a huge hit to the people’s trust in democracy; try to get a sensible politician who didn’t really believe in the idea to try to implement it (May); or get someone who did believe in it but wasn’t a great politician to have a go. I’ve grossly over-simplified it of course, but have I missed out an option?
Yes, the cross party approach to delivering Brexit.
The view of Johnson going into the polling booth is coward
Continuity May with added cowardice and jokes.
Stuff like this makes me think CCHQ are very confident and just want to avoid gaffes. If their internal polling was crap he’d be taking over the airwaves
It could even be the reverse.
They ran a very dull and controlled campaign until the weekend where it was reported in the newspapers that they would relax things and allow "Boris to be Boris".
Probably they thought that they had the election in the bag then, but their campaign has really suffered since they took that decision and suddently they switched gears again.
Had some info sent to me from a friend at a hedge fund that suggests after overnight data crunching the MRP very much downplaying the Tory majority and overweighting the 15,000 samples from Monday. They suggest the projected lead should be over 10 points but MRP essentially showing 8.6% lead. They think Yougov have lowered Tory prospects because of photogate but see it as a blip rather than an ongoing trend. They see it as a Tory majority of 60 and are fairly comfortable about it.
Wish I could share their optimism!
Remember how the "hedge funds" and the City got the EU referendum completely wrong, up to the last minute They know nearly nothing.
Half the polls had Leave ahead a week before, no poll has Corbyn ahead now, though Yougov MRP got 2017 right
"Stuff like this makes me think CCHQ are very confident and just want to avoid gaffes. If their internal polling was crap he’d be taking over the airwaves"
I tend to agree. Not long to find out.
I'm unsure what to make of a contrarian agreeing with anything.
Had some info sent to me from a friend at a hedge fund that suggests after overnight data crunching the MRP very much downplaying the Tory majority and overweighting the 15,000 samples from Monday. They suggest the projected lead should be over 10 points but MRP essentially showing 8.6% lead. They think Yougov have lowered Tory prospects because of photogate but see it as a blip rather than an ongoing trend. They see it as a Tory majority of 60 and are fairly comfortable about it.
Wish I could share their optimism!
Remember how the "hedge funds" and the City got the EU referendum completely wrong, up to the last minute They know nearly nothing.
If I remember correctly the issue was they commissioned a very expensive private exit poll and it turned out to be total horseshit showing a big Remain win.
"Stuff like this makes me think CCHQ are very confident and just want to avoid gaffes. If their internal polling was crap he’d be taking over the airwaves"
I tend to agree. Not long to find out.
Clearly taking over the airwaves hasn’t gone well for him as his popularity has fallen since the start of the campaign . I think it’s far more risky for him to be saying too much at this stage that’s why he’s hiding away and only doing events where a handpicked audience can clap like seals at every Get Brexit Done!
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put it another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
Depends on the precise numbers. Cons just short, perhaps the WA passes. Cons miles short, perhaps Ref2. I have never thought exit with no WA remotely likely because it is plain economic madness. I still think that. Another extension if necessary.
There`s no way the CP will countenance a Ref2 or asking for a further extension. Perhaps you are right that the WA passes before 31/1 - but if so the many people who through tactical voting had tried to create a hung parliament to stop Brexit will be sorely dissappointed.
Do we tend to believe the YouGov headline from MRP which is around 9 points, hence giving somewhat more credibility to other pollsters with smaller leads?
They’d have to be very wrong if it’s actually 15 points
Just throwing this out there - but if Jezza were to announce today that he were too ill to become PM and that even if won an overall majority he would hand over to a caretaker while a leadership election took place, how would this affect tomorrow’s result? I rather think a Labour landslide. Of course he won’t though.
The caretaker would be assumed to be McDonnell who is possibly even more toxic than Corbyn.
Indeed. But I wonder what percentage of Labour supporters have heard of John McDonnell.
Jeremey Vine doing his best to confuse people with his uniform swing target seat dance between wall and floor projections on the BBC News channel now. I'm going to be going with Sky tomorrow night I think.
The big difference in all of this is pretty much always the Labour figure. Some have it as low as 32/33% and others as high as 35-36%. That is really the difference.
Had some info sent to me from a friend at a hedge fund that suggests after overnight data crunching the MRP very much downplaying the Tory majority and overweighting the 15,000 samples from Monday. They suggest the projected lead should be over 10 points but MRP essentially showing 8.6% lead. They think Yougov have lowered Tory prospects because of photogate but see it as a blip rather than an ongoing trend. They see it as a Tory majority of 60 and are fairly comfortable about it.
Wish I could share their optimism!
Remember how the "hedge funds" and the City got the EU referendum completely wrong, up to the last minute They know nearly nothing.
If I remember correctly the issue was they commissioned a very expensive private exit poll and it turned out to be total horseshit showing a big Remain win.
Weird. I've had two Facebook ads in my timeline this morning from our local Conservative incumbent, defending his strongly pro-Brexit position.
Our (southern England) seat is 54/46 Remain/Leave but safe-as-houses Conservative. There is no point the Conservatives wasting money on Facebook advertising the day before the election... unless they're genuinely worried.
How much it would cost must depend on how tightly targeted it is. If it mentions the candidate then I assume it is only going out to those in that constituency. Perhaps it was always going to go out now to get maximum impact. Or perhaps they are worried
One thing is clear from reading reports of the long distant days of the 2015 election: the parties often have no more idea than we do as to what is happening. Ed Miliband genuinely thought he was going to by PM right up until the exit poll came out.
It's the candidate talking to the camera, so yes, this constituency only.
A massively massively hung parliament please. Then we can whittle away the remaining months of the 2015 parliament, forget this alternate time line (its been shit lets be honest) and settle back to enjoy Cameron vs Milliband next May.
Oh FFS. Just when I had booked my one way flight out of the country, and ordered a bag of bullion, now someone is here to give me hope. And it's the hope that HURTS
Jeremey Vine doing his best to confuse people with his uniform swing target seat dance between wall and floor projections on the BBC News channel now. I'm going to be going with Sky tomorrow night I think.
Sky is going to be a leftie lovefest tomorrow night, I am going to have a look at the LBC offering, it may well be more balanced.
The Tories aren't going to get 45%. It looks much more like 42%. Thus, it totally depends on Labour figure. If it 32-33%, Tories will be ok, as soon as it starts getting 34-35%, big trouble in little China.
Jeremey Vine doing his best to confuse people with his uniform swing target seat dance between wall and floor projections on the BBC News channel now. I'm going to be going with Sky tomorrow night I think.
Sad to say the BBC election night has been woeful for years. GE2010 marked the nadir when they sent Andrew Neil off to that weird boat party thing, but it’s not measurably improved since.
I think the last one that was halfway decent was 2005.
My betting view from the start has been for big Con majority. I'm sticking with that but in truth it would be best described now as pure impressionistic hunch. I await the exit poll tomorrow with genuine uncertainty and hence excitement. For my wallet, c'mon you Tories. For the country, c'mon you Hung Parliament!
I can`t ever remember an election when folk actually wanted a hung parliament.
It would put us back in the position we were in before the election was called, but with one crucial difference: no Bercow. This means that exiting with no WA on 31/1 would be very likely - or , to put in another way, how could a no WA exit on 31/1 be averted?
If diehard Remainers get their way, they are very likely to precipitate exactly the No Deal crash-out they claim to fear most. And it will serve them right.
For the record, I voted Remain myself, but FFS I have some sense of priorities.
So, returning to my question, how can a 31/1 "No Deal" be averted? CP won`t be able to get their deal through as they have no majority and remainer MPs will sniff the possibility of a referendum. CP won`t offer a referendum (they would prefer "No Deal" on 31/1 to that). No compliant Speaker to allow a Benn Act 2. CP won`t ask EU for an extention, and parliament will not be able to force one.
There could be another GE after a VONC, but not until after we have exited 31/1.
This is exactly my take on it. The only outcomes I can see that avoid a No Deal are a reasonable Tory majority or a Lib/Lab/SNP Coalition. And I just don't think the numbers are there for the latter.
Anyone who wants to avoid a No Deal really does need to be hoping for a 20+ Tory majority tomorrow.
I am now reconciled to a Hung Parliament, and Jeremy Jew-Hater Corbyn PM. I am arranging my affairs accordingly.
It's like accepting you have cancer. Once you do it, things weirdly improve, as you are now dealing with reality, rather than phantoms and miasmas
It`s like dropping stuff off at the tip. You dread it for ages but feel a strange release once done.
Likewise tax returns (which I just did). I loathe doing these returns, and feel nauseous up to the point I finally do them, then a calm overcomes me, and I feel a modest elation when they are completed.
Had some info sent to me from a friend at a hedge fund that suggests after overnight data crunching the MRP very much downplaying the Tory majority and overweighting the 15,000 samples from Monday. They suggest the projected lead should be over 10 points but MRP essentially showing 8.6% lead. They think Yougov have lowered Tory prospects because of photogate but see it as a blip rather than an ongoing trend. They see it as a Tory majority of 60 and are fairly comfortable about it.
Wish I could share their optimism!
Remember how the "hedge funds" and the City got the EU referendum completely wrong, up to the last minute They know nearly nothing.
Half the polls had Leave ahead a week before, no poll has Corbyn ahead now, though Yougov MRP got 2017 right
No it didn't, it's last one understated the Tories by 15.... although maybe they've adjusted for that?
We need a poll showing the Tory lead widening, just for the shitz and bantz
Worth noting that even in 2017 there was a swing to the Tories from the last poll to the actual result. The old Rod Crosby patented swing-back in action.
This is way off I think, but we still might not be quite in the hung parliament range either - we could still be a little short of that, anything up to 15.
Tories only get 45% if Flat Cap Fred go Tory en-masse...then its time to install wind turbines in all graveyards across the North cos all that spinning in graves will keep the national grid powered for years.
That is a massive Tory score. 45?? If Opinium are right the Tories are looking at an absolute landslide.
So we've got polling showing everything from a very hung parliament, to a ginormous Tory victory.
WTF is a transitioning male model meant to do, to get some stability in his/her life?
Get a friend to take some photos of you in underpants posing as the leader of each political party and post them on the internet. Corbo must wear well ventilated, baggy string whities. Bozo must a be a pouch with a tiger on the front.
Because I like winding you up, theres been about a 10 point range in the upper and lower leads throughout so if opinium is 12, the lowest may be a 2 point lead!! Ajd an average of 7 and bang on HP border
That is a massive Tory score. 45?? If Opinium are right the Tories are looking at an absolute landslide.
So we've got polling showing everything from a very hung parliament, to a ginormous Tory victory.
WTF is a transitioning male model meant to do, to get some stability in his/her life?
One thing is for sure - the polls have tightened and it's now just a case of where it's coming in from - the 15s and 12s of this world, the Tories are fine. But in from 7 or 6?
YouGov's Marcus Roberts on latest Spectator podcast saying he thinks the exit poll tomorrow will be very accurate despite all the unique attributes of this election, so brace yourself for 10pm tomorrow....
16 seats have moved from Con to Lab between the first and second YouGov MRP studies:
Bedford, Clwyd South, Dewsbury, Hyndburn, Kensington, Leigh, Stockton South, Stoke Central, Stroud, Vale Of Clwyd, Warrington South, Warwick, West Bromwich East, Wolv' SW, Workington, Ynys Mon.
3 seats have moved from SNP to Lab: East Lothian, Kirkcaldy, Rutherglen. 2 seats have moved from Con to Lab: Chipping Barnet, Putney. 2 seats have moved from Con to SNP: Angus, Gordon. 2 seats have moved from Con to LD: S Cambs, Winchester. 1 seat has moved from Lab to Con: Sedgefield. 1 seat has moved from SNP to LD: Caithness. 1 seat has moved from SNP to Con: Lanark.
Comments
Still, it's more fun to visit a polling station when the walk is pleasant and the beer garden is welcoming. It should be law that elections can only occur in June.
We’ve seen the MORI numbers, that is what has happened.
I hope it wasn’t a cover for his ice cold personality
There could be another GE after a VONC, but not until after we have exited 31/1.
In this area each percentage point change in the swing changes the majority by 20.
Wrong answer.
However, he isn’t going to have a choice
He's has tried from the outset to engineer a HP - it's existential for him.
Chipping away at that majority
I tend to agree. Not long to find out.
Without reading the YouGov papers on the model I've just realised how Kirkcaldy could shift the SLab vote all by itself.
The drop in vote for the "SNP" candidate and rise in SLab vote in Kirkcaldy would have the potential to be 'mirrored' to other Lav/SNP constituencies.
This would be like how the LA Times poll failed in 2016.
I'm just getting a buzzing noise in my left ear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFc5kJUMFzM
UK Election: Conservatives 45%, Labour 33% - Opinium Poll
-Conservative Lead Over Labour Narrows To 12 Points from 15 points ...
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1204750665106546688
They ran a very dull and controlled campaign until the weekend where it was reported in the newspapers that they would relax things and allow "Boris to be Boris".
Probably they thought that they had the election in the bag then, but their campaign has really suffered since they took that decision and suddently they switched gears again.
3 points in any of the small leads is squeaky bum time
Saw this earlier this morning.
It's like accepting you have cancer. Once you do it, things weirdly improve, as you are now dealing with reality, rather than phantoms and miasmas
They’d have to be very wrong if it’s actually 15 points
Remember when people said the Ashworth comments would cut through
CON: 45% (-1)
LAB: 33% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (-1)
via @OpiniumResearch, 10 - 11 Dec
Chgs. w/ 06 Dec
See more:
https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D
I’ll be interested to see the fieldwork dates . YouGov have said they noted a drop in support for the Tories early in the week .
The Tories aren't going to get 45%. It looks much more like 42%. Thus, it totally depends on Labour figure. If it 32-33%, Tories will be ok, as soon as it starts getting 34-35%, big trouble in little China.
I think the last one that was halfway decent was 2005.
Anyone who wants to avoid a No Deal really does need to be hoping for a 20+ Tory majority tomorrow.
Any other polls showing an extra 3 point tighteting and the lower end will dip into Hung Parliament.
So, don’t close out your NOM bets at 10.01pm unless it shows Tories at 350+
3 points on YouGov would be 6 points and a HP.
Survation would be 9 and a small majority.
ComRes would be 5 and a HP.
BMG, 3 and a HP.
Let’s see what the other polls say.
So we've got polling showing everything from a very hung parliament, to a ginormous Tory victory.
WTF is a transitioning male model meant to do, to get some stability in his/her life?
The two fieldwork days covered phone gate and Ashworths idiocy .
Let's just all pick a poll we like and stick with it. You know no more than anyone else.
I may well be very wrong!
Labour has rallied in the last few days. That should be enough to scare any of us.
And anything could happen tomorrow.
The focus now can only be on turnout where it matters.
You would lighten the mood of the nation.
-55 pt lead for Conservatives
-before Johnson 35% Leavers backed Con, now 71% do
-Johnson has consolidated much of the Leave vote
Conservatives 71%
Labour 16%
#Brexit Party 6%
SNP 2%
Greens 2%
YouGov 5-6 Dec
#GE2019
YouGov's Marcus Roberts on latest Spectator podcast saying he thinks the exit poll tomorrow will be very accurate despite all the unique attributes of this election, so brace yourself for 10pm tomorrow....