Does that mean we can have the Scottish National Party of England? (You know, like Labour but without the racism and with a plausible leader.)
Finland has a significant population of Swedish speaking/Swedish heritage people, and a lot of notable 'Fins' have come from this group, IIRC it was about 15% when the nation became independent, but has shrunk a bit.
How much effect will a PM visit have on constituency voters? A small buzz but he’s in and out in an hour and there’s probably one or two hundred voters won round and a local Tory candidate who is buzzing. But far more important is the optics of the PM meeting every day folk, all the photo ops but with no protesters or car crash moments which are much easier to do in Tory seats. He’ll win over thousands of voters nationally via the papers and TV if he can pull a pint and crack a good joke without being heckled about the NHS. In the past 3 days he’s cancelled visits to Bolton and Rochester to avoid protesters and crap optics, we know what happened in South Yorkshire when locals accosted him over the floods.
With the exceptions of obvious marginals like Cheltenham and Chingford I wouldn’t take much notice about what seats he’s in, it’s all about the national campaign
I think he is wise to stay away much the same as with AN.
I do feel rather neglected in all General Elections and locals. In 15 years we’ve only been canvassed once and that was the holding/completely dominant party. Ultra Safe seats don’t allow me to have fun others seem to. Not that I’m complaining. Our MP is a very nice chap.
We’ve actually been canvassed plus the Tories have been at the tube a couple of times and lots of mail.
Obligatory 1 piece from Labour and 2-3 from Lib Dems plus 1-2 from BXP.
Maybe the bigger surprise might not be on the Tory/Labour battles but on the LDs.
The fact that some constituency polling for them is actually quite good but at odds with the national polling still hasn’t been properly explained.
What if they surprise significantly on the upside and walk away with 35 seats?
That could be a BONG! exit poll surprise on Thursday night.
I don't think that will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them make it into the 20s.
Ultimately, they are going to have put on five to eight percentage points of vote share, and that has to go somewhere. Sure, mostly it'll be saving deposits, but the LDs in Scotland mastered maximising their efficiency of their vote, and 2017 showed the LDs in England managing something similar again.
Finally: I think people (by which I mean Labour voters who aren't BJO) are starting to forget about the coalition. And I think that means tactical voting is going to begin to come back. In 1997, the LDs saw their vote share go backwards, and they got (percentage-wise) barely more than they'll manage this year. Yet they got a staggering 46 seats.
I said 21 seats at the start of the campaign, and I still think that's probably a reasonable centre point.
(As an aside, in 1997, when the LDs increased their seat total from 20 to 46, the BBC exit poll only forecast they'd pick up two seats.)
It seems reasonable to me that the exit poll (and probably the MRP) will be good at picking up changes due to broad patterns of support (e.g.Labour Leavers switching Tory, Tory Remainers switching Lib Dem), and bad at picking up tactical voting.
Indeed, didn't both miss out on the Scottish Tory surge of 2017?
While you are all obsessing over polls and, BTW, I still think a HP is a very real possibility, we appear to have missed the real story of the day.
Which is - TA DAH!!!
Boris has finally told the truth about Brexit.
Yes, really!
In an interview with Tim Shipman in today’s Sunday Times he describes Brexit as an “incubus”. As indeed it is. No wonder he wants to get it done. Still, why embark on the bloody thing in the first place if it’s such a nightmare.
I must admit that one reason I would find a HP fascinating would be to see the reaction of EU leaders. It would also serve the Tories right. They really do not deserve to win.
Anyway, thank God it will all over be soon. If I’d wanted elections every 10 minutes I’d have gone to live in Italy.
The Conservatives and Labour losing seats would be great....they both fucking deserve to
I've just been feeding the latest BMG polling data into Baxter, which came up with a meagre Tory majority of 24. I'm convinced that Baxter has significantly changed his methodology recently since the regular 60-90 seat majorities we were seeing just 6-8 weeks ago are no more and instead we are fed a regular diet of 12-45 seat majorities, very seldom outside these parameters. What I *did* find interesting however was in playing with the seat prediction options, one can select the so-called 2018 boundaries, based on a 600 seat, instead of the present 650 seat configuration. On running this option out of curiosity, I was amazed to discover that this produced a Tory majority of no less than 110 seats, with the Tories winning 355, Labour fewer than half as many on 174 and the LibDems bringing up the rear on just 12 seats. Bring on the 2024 GE is what I say, always assuming that the Tories, if re-elected, actually finally get around to implementing the boundary changes which are now EIGHT YEARS OVERDUE!
Just goes to show how outdated the boundaries are if they change the result by such a huge margin.
The huge margin in question is an effect of the change from 650 to 600, not the change to boundaries per se
Reduce the number of Unelected Has-Beens Lords, NOT the number of elected MPs!!
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their bias.
I haven't been able to do any canvassing myself this year, owing to work and church commitments so have only social anecdata to report. That seems to show a lack of interest in the GE, so I forecast a low turnout, which in turn probably means a Tory majority. Interestingly it is the WWC that seem least motivated to vote, so could play the other way.
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Personally, I’ve always taken Nick Palmer’s canvassing reports with a big pinch of salt. He’s not a big gambler and I think he’s too affected by the subliminal need to motivate rather than report.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
How much effect will a PM visit have on constituency voters? A small buzz but he’s in and out in an hour and there’s probably one or two hundred voters won round and a local Tory candidate who is buzzing. But far more important is the optics of the PM meeting every day folk, all the photo ops but with no protesters or car crash moments which are much easier to do in Tory seats. He’ll win over thousands of voters nationally via the papers and TV if he can pull a pint and crack a good joke without being heckled about the NHS. In the past 3 days he’s cancelled visits to Bolton and Rochester to avoid protesters and crap optics, we know what happened in South Yorkshire when locals accosted him over the floods.
With the exceptions of obvious marginals like Cheltenham and Chingford I wouldn’t take much notice about what seats he’s in, it’s all about the national campaign
This. In an age of vicious Momentumites and social media, pumping out joyful video in friendly surroundings is worth more than a brief trip to be be pelted with eggs on enemy soil.
That's a good point.
Today's video of Boris being lauded and adored in Jewish North London, with plaintive voices begging him to save the Jews - literally - from the evil Jew-hater Jeremy Corbyn, will persuade 1000s more voters than 3 seconds of anti-Boris lefty yelling in Yeovil.
This attitude is an absolute disgrace. Do you not think this matters?
Not really. It is not going to change a vote
The election is over - it is just a matter of counting the votes now
I didn't mean about changing votes, I meant about the fact the Tories have lied, again.
But you don't seem to care about lying, don't you think that's a worrying path we're going down?
You're truly in the Johnson reality distortion field, it's quite a sight to behold if I am honest.
Boris has many faults but he is the only option to defeat Corbyn who has so many faults he makes Boris look a saint
So yes, you do think the lying is okay. Thanks for being honest about it.
No more so than Corbyn and his fully costed manifesto
Fair point - so why don't you vote Lib Dem or Green then?
The point I am making is you're a hypocrite. If you're happy to accept that then fair enough. But you can't take the moral high ground on pretty much anything then.
Who do you think you are. I am content to do everything to see Corbyn defeated
I am not a lib dem or green and neither are you but you are going to vote lib dem.
Who is the real hypocrite?
You pretend to take the moral high ground on loads of issues like racism - and yet you vote Tory.
You are a hypocrite, whether you want to admit it or not.
I am also a hypocrite, I'm happy to accept that. Are you?
Stop being childish
I’m sorry Big G but you are being a hypocrite. You may prefer Boris to Corbyn which is fine but it’s certainly no moral high ground.
I'm inclined to think it's the latter. People hate Corbyn, but they hate "the Tories" even more. I think Boris is personally quite popular, but he's a Tory nonetheless.
Perversely, I think this makes the anecdotes from labour canvassers sound much worse than they actually are.
From a psychological point of view, so long as people are actively telling you they hate your guy this time round, they are still on your team. They want you to get better. Like a football supporter being angry with the manager but still wanting his club to come good.
You see it in branding all the time when brands with huge amounts of loyalty make terrible mistakes. Corbyn is like when Twinings changed the recipe of their Earl Grey, or when Cadbury started putting less milk chocolate into their Creme Eggs.
It's when people stop shouting about how much they hate what Labour has become and silently vote Conservative that you'll see a Tory landslide. We're not there yet. People hate Corbyn, but the Labour brand remains strong.
I hear you but, in a lot of the WWC areas, Brexit seems to have supplanted Labour as your "brand". That is what is the problem for Labour. Not only is their brand hated but people have turned to an alternative which involves voting Tory.
I suppose we'll find out on the day. I think there's a decent possibility "brand loyal" Labour voters will find themselves unable to put their cross against the Hated Tories. I also think there's a decent possibility many will just stay at home.
But it's also possible they will vote Conservative this time around to send a message to Labour - dump Corbyn - in much the same way as half the Tory party voted BXP in the Euros to get rid of May.
The question then becomes who they vote for once the habit of a lifetime has been broken. BXP voting Tories returned as soon as the party dropped Theresa May...
How much effect will a PM visit have on constituency voters? A small buzz but he’s in and out in an hour and there’s probably one or two hundred voters won round and a local Tory candidate who is buzzing. But far more important is the optics of the PM meeting every day folk, all the photo ops but with no protesters or car crash moments which are much easier to do in Tory seats. He’ll win over thousands of voters nationally via the papers and TV if he can pull a pint and crack a good joke without being heckled about the NHS. In the past 3 days he’s cancelled visits to Bolton and Rochester to avoid protesters and crap optics, we know what happened in South Yorkshire when locals accosted him over the floods.
With the exceptions of obvious marginals like Cheltenham and Chingford I wouldn’t take much notice about what seats he’s in, it’s all about the national campaign
Indeed.
I doubt such visits win over any voters but they all have the potential to go wrong.
Does that mean we can have the Scottish National Party of England? (You know, like Labour but without the racism and with a plausible leader.)
"The Swedish-speaking population of Finland (whose members are often called Swedish-speaking Finns, Finland-Swedes, Finland Swedes, Finnish Swedes, or Swedes of Finland) ... comprise 5.4% of the total Finnish population or about 4.9% without Åland. The proportion has been steadily diminishing since the early 19th century, when Swedish was the mother tongue of approximately 15% of the population"
That is curious info from Rentoul. NOW I AM WORRIED AGAIN
Yet it is entrely opposed by the polling, and I do NOT believe there is any private polling which starkly disagrees. Such private polling is an urban myth.
So why is it happening? Perhaps they have realised that Boris is genuinely an asset in Tory marginals, but not so much in long-shot seats in the North. That would make sense. You employ your best artillery where it reliably works, not where it might just take out the admiral of the fleet, on a 1000/1 chance.
But the Con strategy is to reel in those northern seats. It is Boris who can reach those parts, not the stereotypical Tory politician.
Indeed. This is one of the more interesting findings of recent polls "The Government" is even less popular than all of the four leaders. A lot hinges on what voters mean by that, whether they mean the Tory government, or MPs in general getting a negative incumbency vote.
I've just been feeding the latest BMG polling data into Baxter, which came up with a meagre Tory majority of 24. I'm convinced that Baxter has significantly changed his methodology recently since the regular 60-90 seat majorities we were seeing just 6-8 weeks ago are no more and instead we are fed a regular diet of 12-45 seat majorities, very seldom outside these parameters. What I *did* find interesting however was in playing with the seat prediction options, one can select the so-called 2018 boundaries, based on a 600 seat, instead of the present 650 seat configuration. On running this option out of curiosity, I was amazed to discover that this produced a Tory majority of no less than 110 seats, with the Tories winning 355, Labour fewer than half as many on 174 and the LibDems bringing up the rear on just 12 seats. Bring on the 2024 GE is what I say, always assuming that the Tories, if re-elected, actually finally get around to implementing the boundary changes which are now EIGHT YEARS OVERDUE!
Just goes to show how outdated the boundaries are if they change the result by such a huge margin.
The huge margin in question is an effect of the change from 650 to 600, not the change to boundaries per se
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Personally, I’ve always taken Nick Palmer’s canvassing reports with a big pinch of salt. He’s not a big gambler and I think he’s too affected by the subliminal need to motivate rather than report.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
Bunnco??
Our man on the spot.
He’s kinda funny in that I think he’s generally only in one spot but posts so well you’d think he’s omnipresent.
He runs a region for the Tories so sees all the constituency agent reports
Despite the wishful thinking that the population will reject Boris - it ain't happening this time round.
Expect the Conservatives to be on 350+ seats.
I've bet on Batley & Spen, Reading East, Ashfield, Sunderland Central, and Halifax.
I fear you are right...Mr Fear....
The real fight is going to be who takes control of the Lab Party...and that is where the fight for Britain's future sits...and where this country will head in 5 years. Will we go down the line of Chavez, or will pragmatic social democracy prevail?
That may be true, but to paraphrase Mandy Rice -Davies. They would say that wouldn't they.
The point was we were just talking about where Boris / Corbyn has been over past 2 weeks. Mail saying Boris is now going to spend time visiting the North, that is relevant information.
How much effect will a PM visit have on constituency voters? A small buzz but he’s in and out in an hour and there’s probably one or two hundred voters won round and a local Tory candidate who is buzzing. But far more important is the optics of the PM meeting every day folk, all the photo ops but with no protesters or car crash moments which are much easier to do in Tory seats. He’ll win over thousands of voters nationally via the papers and TV if he can pull a pint and crack a good joke without being heckled about the NHS. In the past 3 days he’s cancelled visits to Bolton and Rochester to avoid protesters and crap optics, we know what happened in South Yorkshire when locals accosted him over the floods.
With the exceptions of obvious marginals like Cheltenham and Chingford I wouldn’t take much notice about what seats he’s in, it’s all about the national campaign
This. In an age of vicious Momentumites and social media, pumping out joyful video in friendly surroundings is worth more than a brief trip to be be pelted with eggs on enemy soil.
There’s also a part of me that thinks though Boris is relatively popular for a Tory behind the red wall there’s something rather presumptuous and inflammatory about Boris acting all bolshy in Sunderland or Bolsover. I reckon people love the idea of Get Brexit Done, are okish with voting Tory this time but also won’t be rolling out the red carpet to the Conservatives. Best to win these seats by going under the radar, target voters on Facebook rather than doing anything to put these places in the national spotlight that might upset the locals and remind them why they never return a Tory MP.
Does anyone know where RodCrosby is lurking today? Do we know what his predictions are? He rightly called Trump and Brexit....so he's worth tracking down....
Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.
Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.
Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!
So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.
326 politics has canvassed the canvassers and come up with a prediction of Con 326. Nice to see confidence intervals too.
Hmm. That looks a self-selecting survey to me and the tweeter himself mentions that Conservative canvasser responses are underrepresented.
I have always been suspicious of self reported canvassing anecdata. Apart from @david_herdson in his famous Tuesday night PB wobble (partly retracted the following day as I recall) people seem to report stuff that matches their
I reckon Con on 355-360 seats, unchanged from my position at the start of the campaign, but I don't see much value in the markets at present as that seems the consensus.
Personally, I’ve always taken Nick Palmer’s canvassing reports with a big pinch of salt. He’s not a big gambler and I think he’s too affected by the subliminal need to motivate rather than report.
Bunnco, Stuart Dickson, Marquee Mark, David Herdson, JohnO and Cyclefree i pay particular attention to.
Bunnco??
Our man on the spot.
He’s kinda funny in that I think he’s generally only in one spot but posts so well you’d think he’s omnipresent.
He runs a region for the Tories so sees all the constituency agent reports
How much effect will a PM visit have on constituency voters? A small buzz but he’s in and out in an hour and there’s probably one or two hundred voters won round and a local Tory candidate who is buzzing. But far more important is the optics of the PM meeting every day folk, all the photo ops but with no protesters or car crash moments which are much easier to do in Tory seats. He’ll win over thousands of voters nationally via the papers and TV if he can pull a pint and crack a good joke without being heckled about the NHS. In the past 3 days he’s cancelled visits to Bolton and Rochester to avoid protesters and crap optics, we know what happened in South Yorkshire when locals accosted him over the floods.
With the exceptions of obvious marginals like Cheltenham and Chingford I wouldn’t take much notice about what seats he’s in, it’s all about the national campaign
Indeed.
I doubt such visits win over any voters but they all have the potential to go wrong.
After a minor panic, I realise you and Brom are surely right. A modern campaign is fought on social media, and TV news, not in hustings and meet-the-publics where you might come a cropper even if the place isn't overly hostile. Remember TMay's terrible chip-eating in mildly lefty St Austell? I am sure her supremely awkward and embarrassing demeanour lost her votes.
Better to get your man surrounded by seriously positive vibes. When I look at a big and eager Corbyn rally - even now - I sometimes catch myself thinking "Well, he must have something" -despite my knowing he is an evil Marxist traitor.
Jeremy Corbyn spent the last Sunday before the general election in the company of 200 supporters in a Welsh village hall today.
The Labour leader took his campaign roadshow to the town of Llanfairfechan on the North Wales coast to meet placard-waving admirers four days before the election. The town of 3,600 people is in the marginal constituency of Aberconwy, where the Conservatives clung on by only 635 votes at the 2017 election.
How much effect will a PM visit have on constituency voters? A small buzz but he’s in and out in an hour and there’s probably one or two hundred voters won round and a local Tory candidate who is buzzing. But far more important is the optics of the PM meeting every day folk, all the photo ops but with no protesters or car crash moments which are much easier to do in Tory seats. He’ll win over thousands of voters nationally via the papers and TV if he can pull a pint and crack a good joke without being heckled about the NHS. In the past 3 days he’s cancelled visits to Bolton and Rochester to avoid protesters and crap optics, we know what happened in South Yorkshire when locals accosted him over the floods.
With the exceptions of obvious marginals like Cheltenham and Chingford I wouldn’t take much notice about what seats he’s in, it’s all about the national campaign
Indeed.
I doubt such visits win over any voters but they all have the potential to go wrong.
After a minor panic, I realise you and Brom are surely right. A modern campaign is fought on social media, and TV news, not in hustings and meet-the-publics where you might come a cropper even if the place isn't overly hostile. Remember TMay's terrible chip-eating in mildly lefty St Austell? I am sure her supremely awkward and embarrassing demeanour lost her votes.
Better to get your man surrounded by seriously positive vibes. When I look at a big and eager Corbyn rally - even now - I sometimes catch myself thinking "Well, he must have something" -despite my knowing he is an evil Marxist traitor.
Those kind of rallies have been few and far between this time around.
Does anyone know where RodCrosby is lurking today? Do we know what his predictions are? He rightly called Trump and Brexit....so he's worth tracking down....
Any idea what's happened to JackW and his ARSE
he put it into retirement after Trump---well if he didn't he should have done.
That may be true, but to paraphrase Mandy Rice -Davies. They would say that wouldn't they.
The point was we were just talking about where Boris / Corbyn has been over past 2 weeks. Mail saying Boris is now going to spend time visiting the North, that is relevant information.
Does anyone know where RodCrosby is lurking today? Do we know what his predictions are? He rightly called Trump and Brexit....so he's worth tracking down....
Any idea what's happened to JackW and his ARSE
ARSE was the actual inspiration for my ELBOW, back in August 2014!
Does anyone know where RodCrosby is lurking today? Do we know what his predictions are? He rightly called Trump and Brexit....so he's worth tracking down....
Any idea what's happened to JackW and his ARSE
he put it into retirement after Trump---well if he didn't he should have done.
RodC- where is he???
Banned for being anti-Semitic. Also possibly dead, I think
I know his anti-Semitic stuff was horrible, but I miss him. He and I used to email. He came across as a decent, troubled, and very very smart bloke, who REALLY knew his psephology. If he is gone: RIP
Does anyone know where RodCrosby is lurking today? Do we know what his predictions are? He rightly called Trump and Brexit....so he's worth tracking down....
Any idea what's happened to JackW and his ARSE
JackW has been 103 for at least 14 years. His actual age must be catching up with this now. As it is with all of us, of course.
How much effect will a PM visit have on constituency voters? A small buzz but he’s in and out in an hour and there’s probably one or two hundred voters won round and a local Tory candidate who is buzzing. But far more important is the optics of the PM meeting every day folk, all the photo ops but with no protesters or car crash moments which are much easier to do in Tory seats. He’ll win over thousands of voters nationally via the papers and TV if he can pull a pint and crack a good joke without being heckled about the NHS. In the past 3 days he’s cancelled visits to Bolton and Rochester to avoid protesters and crap optics, we know what happened in South Yorkshire when locals accosted him over the floods.
With the exceptions of obvious marginals like Cheltenham and Chingford I wouldn’t take much notice about what seats he’s in, it’s all about the national campaign
Indeed.
I doubt such visits win over any voters but they all have the potential to go wrong.
After a minor panic, I realise you and Brom are surely right. A modern campaign is fought on social media, and TV news, not in hustings and meet-the-publics where you might come a cropper even if the place isn't overly hostile. Remember TMay's terrible chip-eating in mildly lefty St Austell? I am sure her supremely awkward and embarrassing demeanour lost her votes.
Better to get your man surrounded by seriously positive vibes. When I look at a big and eager Corbyn rally - even now - I sometimes catch myself thinking "Well, he must have something" -despite my knowing he is an evil Marxist traitor.
Such visits are perhaps especially risky for Boris as he seems to have a need to be loved.
A few hecklers, which all Conservatives tend to get, could unsettle him to a dangerous degree.
Maybe the bigger surprise might not be on the Tory/Labour battles but on the LDs.
The fact that some constituency polling for them is actually quite good but at odds with the national polling still hasn’t been properly explained.
What if they surprise significantly on the upside and walk away with 35 seats?
That could be a BONG! exit poll surprise on Thursday night.
What feels like months ago (but was probably only about a fortnight back) I did some back-of-a-fag-packet reasoning and came up with a guess for the Lib Dems of around 20-22. I still wouldn't be surprised if they got that far, but 35 is implausible. They've a very limited pool of evenly vaguely marginal seats to fish in (of which a decent proportion are Leave-leaning,) so if they were to win a total that healthy they'd need to be taking down quite a lot of Tory seats on massive swings.
To put it another way, if you think they could do as well as 35 I'd be fascinated to see your opinion on exactly which seats they're meant to lose and gain in order to arrive at that figure.
If you were to go looking for the twentieth LibDem gain from the Conservatives (this is not a forecast), you would probably want to find a place which:
1. Had a strong local LD presence on the council, including surges in the '18/'19 local elections, and a number one spot for the LDs in the Euros 2. Has a large Labour vote to squeeze 3. Is more than 55% or so Remain
In other words, it's Remainy middle class seats where the Conservatives got 40-50% last time, Labour 25-30% and the LDs 15-20%, but the LDs have the local presence and the Labour Party doesn't.
In those seats, if the Tories fall back to 40%, while the LDs make themselves the challengers and benefit from tactical voting, then you *might* see some shocks.
But realistically, a more likely outcome is that the LDs in those seats go to 30%, while the Labour Party drops sub 20%, and they become "in play" in 2024.
Does anyone know where RodCrosby is lurking today? Do we know what his predictions are? He rightly called Trump and Brexit....so he's worth tracking down....
Any idea what's happened to JackW and his ARSE
he put it into retirement after Trump---well if he didn't he should have done.
RodC- where is he???
Banned for being anti-Semitic. Also possibly dead, I think
I know his anti-Semitic stuff was horrible, but I miss him. He and I used to email. He came across as a decent, troubled, and very very smart bloke, who REALLY knew his psephology. If he is gone: RIP
Thanks B....
Rod won a lot of money on Trump....and I would be sad if he has passed...
My uncle's an Aushwitz survivor...he lost every single member of his female family there (aunts, sisters, cousins, mother)..
I'm baffled by the anti-Semitic stuff. I spent the best part of a year on a kibbutz, and cannot help but admire the pluckiness of the Israelis..
Oh godsdammit, really? That's the fourth one we've lost (PlatoSays/Phillipa, Calum and Mark Senior being the others). When was it and what did he die of?
In line with my policy of betting transparency, please be advised that I have today placed a bet of £120 with Betfred at 1/3 on Conservative overall majority. This is in addition to my bet of 2019/11/24 of £150 with Betfred at 2/5 on Conservative overall majority. A link to that latter bet is given here[1]
Oh godsdammit, really? That's the fourth one we've lost (PlatoSays/Phillipa, Calum and Mark Senior being the others). When was it and what did he die of?
Wait, what?! I haven't been a regular on here for quite some time so didn't know. Blimey.
Oh godsdammit, really? That's the fourth one we've lost (PlatoSays/Phillipa, Calum and Mark Senior being the others). When was it and what did he die of?
Mark Senior.....that is sad....I didn't know I was really upset when SBS went....
I used to like Paul....City fan/ Yellow Peril- he disappeared (hopefully to something better to do rather than the other side)
Can OGH not do a kind of Oscar homage in one of his leads to our passing friends...at least then we'll know which ones have kicked the bucket...
There does seem quite a high number of frequent posters here that conk it though which is a bit worrying....I might up my life insurance
BMG makes no difference The most sensitive assumption in my model is the % of LD supporters in Lab/Tory marginals who will vote tactically for Labour. YouGov reported 49% were willing but that was some time ago. Some are probably already in the Labour share and out of the LD share. I use 40% in my model. The sensitivity is as follows: % LDs tactical for Labour, Number of Tory seats 0%, 341 20%, 332 40%, 323 60%, 315
Well, well - BoZo is in the 'South West' again tomorrow - that could mean anything from Cheltenham to St. Ives, of course - what was that again about the Northern Heartlands?
@TSE - looks to me like CCHQ are worried the late threat is to Tory seats in the SE and London from Lab/LD tacticals.
It’s possible the air war has already done its job in the north/midlands.
I was just going to say something similar.
Maybe their numbers are showing that they are doing well in the Northern/Midlands marginals, but are concerned about losing share in the South.
I suspect (but have no internal briefings on this) that the reports from the Midlands and the North and the SW and Wales are encouraging for a good majority. They fear the worst in Scotland, given the margins on many seats are tiny. The way they lose the majority though is the SE/London seats falling. So the strategy now is to put resources into helping out any of those SE/London seats they fear might just run away from them.
They would much rather lock in a 20-30 seat majority to get Brexit done, than go for a 100 seat majority whilst risk losing it. They have learnt from 2017. Some of that targeting was crazily optimistic. Scotland may deliver for the majority on the upside, but frankly, who knows?
They also expect the final days of the social war to go their way. That may yet help get them some delicious wins. But they are not essential. Get The Job Done is the mantra for the final days. Do nothing that risks that.
I didn't know that. I know that Plato and Mark Senior had passed on, but I didn't know about Rod Crosby.
Has anyone heard from Socrates recently? I really liked him and it is a shame he is not posting anymore.
Yeah, Socrates was good. Waspish and wise.
We really are like an old pub, where the muttering regulars occasionally fall off their perch, and nobody notices until they NOTICE
RESPECT to all PB-ERS, left and right, Nat and Scone, Welsh and UKIP, lagershedders and Rogerdamus. Also OGH and NPXMP
In some weeks I spend more time on here than I do with, say, my family. OMFG.
Spending time on this site has caused many a strained word between myself and the missus! I've even zoned out of conversations with her and the kids because of the addiction of PB and got a flea in the ear!
@TSE - looks to me like CCHQ are worried the late threat is to Tory seats in the SE and London from Lab/LD tacticals.
It’s possible the air war has already done its job in the north/midlands.
I was just going to say something similar.
Maybe their numbers are showing that they are doing well in the Northern/Midlands marginals, but are concerned about losing share in the South.
I suspect (but have no internal briefings on this) that the reports from the Midlands and the North and the SW and Wales are encouraging for a good majority. They fear the worst in Scotland, given the margins on many seats are tiny. The way they lose the majority though is the SE/London seats falling. So the strategy now is to put resources into helping out any of those SE/London seats they fear might just run away from them.
They would much rather lock in a 20-30 seat majority to get Brexit done, than go for a 100 seat majority whilst risk losing it. They have learnt from 2017. Some of that targeting was crazily optimistic. Scotland may deliver for the majority on the upside, but frankly, who knows?
They also expect the final days of the social war to go their way. That may yet help get them some delicious wins. But they are not essential. Get The Job Done is the mantra for the final days. Do nothing that risks that.
That makes sense....safety first....lock in a small majority----but also be hopeful that a 70/80 majority may well crop up with a fair wind....
It'd quite common for the dead to continue editing Wikipedia pages. If you go to a seance these days, you see that communication with the dead happens almost entirely via an elaborate editing dance.
Well, well - BoZo is in the 'South West' again tomorrow - that could mean anything from Cheltenham to St. Ives, of course - what was that again about the Northern Heartlands?
It is the best analysis I have read of the Boris Phenomenon, for good and bad. Devoid of Brexity hysteria.
UNLURK
I think I have said this a few times before over the years - read Orwell, especially his "Notes on Nationalism".
Brexit is about British nationalism.
It is opposed by Euronationalists & their kin the Internationalists.
Corbyn is a Negative nationalist - hence his instinct is towards every opponent of this country (IRA, Putin etc)...
Boris Johnson is British nationalist.
Those expecting the perceived success or failure of Brexit from the point of view of leave should consider the following. In how many countries around the world that left empires or other countries do the nationalists sum up their success in economic terms?
Well, well - BoZo is in the 'South West' again tomorrow - that could mean anything from Cheltenham to St. Ives, of course - what was that again about the Northern Heartlands?
Re Rod Crosby, I think the confusion came from the comment that he had died "just like all the Jews in Aushwitz". Obviously, to a normal person, that would imply that he was - you know - dead. While to Rod, it was an indication that nothing was wrong at all.
Re Rod Crosby, I think the confusion came from the comment that he had died "just like all the Jews in Aushwitz". Obviously, to a normal person, that would imply that he was - you know - dead. While to Rod, it was an indication that nothing was wrong at all.
Comments
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1203799404420980737
Nothing to gain possible downside.
Obligatory 1 piece from Labour and 2-3 from Lib Dems plus 1-2 from BXP.
15k+ Labour majority at the moment
Indeed, didn't both miss out on the Scottish Tory surge of 2017?
Today's video of Boris being lauded and adored in Jewish North London, with plaintive voices begging him to save the Jews - literally - from the evil Jew-hater Jeremy Corbyn, will persuade 1000s more voters than 3 seconds of anti-Boris lefty yelling in Yeovil.
So maybe this is just The New Politics.
But it's also possible they will vote Conservative this time around to send a message to Labour - dump Corbyn - in much the same way as half the Tory party voted BXP in the Euros to get rid of May.
The question then becomes who they vote for once the habit of a lifetime has been broken. BXP voting Tories returned as soon as the party dropped Theresa May...
Expect the Conservatives to be on 350+ seats.
I've bet on Batley & Spen, Reading East, Ashfield, Sunderland Central, and Halifax.
I doubt such visits win over any voters but they all have the potential to go wrong.
https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1202969367887196165?s=19
SNP 4/6
SLab 16/5
SCon 7/2
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1203799996698648576/photo/1
For CON
The real fight is going to be who takes control of the Lab Party...and that is where the fight for Britain's future sits...and where this country will head in 5 years. Will we go down the line of Chavez, or will pragmatic social democracy prevail?
Have we corrupted you?
Better to get your man surrounded by seriously positive vibes. When I look at a big and eager Corbyn rally - even now - I sometimes catch myself thinking "Well, he must have something" -despite my knowing he is an evil Marxist traitor.
The Labour leader took his campaign roadshow to the town of Llanfairfechan on the North Wales coast to meet placard-waving admirers four days before the election. The town of 3,600 people is in the marginal constituency of Aberconwy, where the Conservatives clung on by only 635 votes at the 2017 election.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7769767/Jeremy-Corbyn-campaigns-Welsh-village-hall-four-days-election.html
RodC- where is he???
The other three were Labour gains.
Maybe their numbers are showing that they are doing well in the Northern/Midlands marginals, but are concerned about losing share in the South.
2010: Con 48 seats ahead of Lab
2015: Con 98 seats ahead of Lab
2017: Con 55 seats ahead of Lab
2019: ?
Hope he's well!
I know his anti-Semitic stuff was horrible, but I miss him. He and I used to email. He came across as a decent, troubled, and very very smart bloke, who REALLY knew his psephology. If he is gone: RIP
Although I doubt Cameron went there in 2015
A few hecklers, which all Conservatives tend to get, could unsettle him to a dangerous degree.
1. Had a strong local LD presence on the council, including surges in the '18/'19 local elections, and a number one spot for the LDs in the Euros
2. Has a large Labour vote to squeeze
3. Is more than 55% or so Remain
In other words, it's Remainy middle class seats where the Conservatives got 40-50% last time, Labour 25-30% and the LDs 15-20%, but the LDs have the local presence and the Labour Party doesn't.
In those seats, if the Tories fall back to 40%, while the LDs make themselves the challengers and benefit from tactical voting, then you *might* see some shocks.
But realistically, a more likely outcome is that the LDs in those seats go to 30%, while the Labour Party drops sub 20%, and they become "in play" in 2024.
Con (Raab) 1/2
LD 9/4
Reading East - looks good value
Ashfield - reasonable
Sunderland C - looks good value
Halifax - reasonable
I suspect Halifax might be a constituency where the Conservatives often come very close to winning but never do.
Likewise Plato. And SBS. All from very different voting backgrounds, but..... all enlightening in their own way.
Rod won a lot of money on Trump....and I would be sad if he has passed...
My uncle's an Aushwitz survivor...he lost every single member of his female family there (aunts, sisters, cousins, mother)..
I'm baffled by the anti-Semitic stuff. I spent the best part of a year on a kibbutz, and cannot help but admire the pluckiness of the Israelis..
In line with my policy of betting transparency, please be advised that I have today placed a bet of £120 with Betfred at 1/3 on Conservative overall majority. This is in addition to my bet of 2019/11/24 of £150 with Betfred at 2/5 on Conservative overall majority. A link to that latter bet is given here[1]
#BigBoyPants
[1] https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2610267/#Comment_2610267
YG MRP in 47hrs 20 mins
Then it's just the one that matters.
Blimey.
(Danny Alexander’s old seat.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/RodCrosby
I was really upset when SBS went....
I used to like Paul....City fan/ Yellow Peril- he disappeared (hopefully to something better to do rather than the other side)
Can OGH not do a kind of Oscar homage in one of his leads to our passing friends...at least then we'll know which ones have kicked the bucket...
There does seem quite a high number of frequent posters here that conk it though which is a bit worrying....I might up my life insurance
He was definitely alive 10 days ago
The most sensitive assumption in my model is the % of LD supporters in Lab/Tory marginals who will vote tactically for Labour.
YouGov reported 49% were willing but that was some time ago. Some are probably already in the Labour share and out of the LD share. I use 40% in my model.
The sensitivity is as follows: % LDs tactical for Labour, Number of Tory seats
0%, 341
20%, 332
40%, 323
60%, 315
We really are like an old pub, where the muttering regulars occasionally fall off their perch, and nobody notices until they NOTICE
RESPECT to all PB-ERS, left and right, Nat and Scone, Welsh and UKIP, lagershedders and Rogerdamus. Also OGH and NPXMP
In some weeks I spend more time on here than I do with, say, my family. OMFG.
But ultimately the Pennines are a mountain range with few voters and in 2015 no LibDem constituencies.
https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/pm-boris-johnson-back-south-3621723
I'll keep you informed where, and if, the visits actually occur.
They would much rather lock in a 20-30 seat majority to get Brexit done, than go for a 100 seat majority whilst risk losing it. They have learnt from 2017. Some of that targeting was crazily optimistic. Scotland may deliver for the majority on the upside, but frankly, who knows?
They also expect the final days of the social war to go their way. That may yet help get them some delicious wins. But they are not essential. Get The Job Done is the mantra for the final days. Do nothing that risks that.
Had to give my mate a stiff talking too as well the other day.
We were talking about the demise of Bob Willis and his first thought was "hope he didnt have a postal vote"
Mind you he is so left wing he makes me look like Tory Swinson.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50704179
Daughter: I have been raped by one of your political cronies. I want to go to the police.
Bob Hawke: You can't. I am sorry but I am challenging for the leadership of the Labor Party.
He is going to all parts of the country over the next three days
I think I have said this a few times before over the years - read Orwell, especially his "Notes on Nationalism".
Brexit is about British nationalism.
It is opposed by Euronationalists & their kin the Internationalists.
Corbyn is a Negative nationalist - hence his instinct is towards every opponent of this country (IRA, Putin etc)...
Boris Johnson is British nationalist.
Those expecting the perceived success or failure of Brexit from the point of view of leave should consider the following. In how many countries around the world that left empires or other countries do the nationalists sum up their success in economic terms?