Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
Keir Starmer and Tony Blair
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.
He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of Watford
You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.
Momentum will probably go this way -
After the uprising of the 17th of June The Secretary of the Writers' Union Had leaflets distributed on the Stalinallee Stating that the people Had forfeited the confidence of the government And could only win it back By increased work quotas. Would it not in that case be simpler for the government To dissolve the people And elect another?
I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
The only word of caution I would state if this is the case, there is the prospect of shy Labour (in the way lots of people would never admit in public that they actually quite liked Thatcher).
All my Labour friends on social media, bar one, have gone very quiet about Corbyn. In real life, they always state they still like Labour brand and excuse it with despite Corbyn etc.
I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
A wise move. I think this makes 20-40 seat territory more likely, but I don't think there will be a landslide either.
Weird how this poll feels more significant than all others. Why?
Partly: confirmation bias, for sure. All non-racist, non-Jew-haters want to see Labour thoroughly defeated and disgraced. That is the righteous position. We are all in danger of seeing what we want to see.
BUT, also, this feels like it captures a genuine mood shift. BMG also showed a significant slide against Racist Labour. This kinda cements it. Who wants to vote for C*nts? And, not only that, Loser Marxisr C*nts?
Die, Corbyn's Labour, Die.
Much as this poll is great for the Tories I'd still be worried if I was a Conservative that anti-Corbyn voters won't turn out as they don't think much of Johnson either and staying at home is easier than breaking with decades of tradition and voting Labour.
I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
I doubt it will be 6%. YouGov normal polling has still been ~10%. It might still be very tight on seats though.
I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
GMB Survation had a 1% Tory lead in its final 2017 poll, tonight its final 2019 poll has a 14% Tory lead, there has clearly been a big shift to the Tories as we enter the last week from the Gold Standard pollster
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
Keir Starmer and Tony Blair
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.
He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of Watford
You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.
He is not acceptable to Momentum and they now control the membership, Pidcock or Long Bailey are their choice and if so if Boris does get a landslide we are looking at another decade of Tory rule unless the LDs can overtake Labour and win the centre
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
Sacrifice the Union you say?
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.
I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.
As someone who was born there, NI doesn't really exist.
I've been there. I went on a plane. I may have mentioned it.
I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
Farage's last shot at claiming some glory is a Wednesday statement to tell voters in all seats bar a specified handful to vote Tory. Then take credit for the shit-storm that engulfs Labour.
And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.
Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....
46-29.
1935 general election repeat ? If landslide happens and I think the runes are showing its gonna happen, Corbyn finished, Farage seen off,Brexit done, Remain destroyed, saved from Marxism, a proper Tory majority ,what's not to like
That would be a hell of a list achievements for Boris.
He can retire next Christmas. Job done.
Oh and the look on Philip Hammonds & Dominic Grieves face 😆
One in four LibDem voters have walked away from them during the campaign. That is going to require some very VERY precise targeting to be making gains.
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
Sacrifice the Union you say?
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.
I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.
As someone who was born there, NI doesn't really exist.
I've been there. I went on a plane. I may have mentioned it.
That just goes to show how deep the fakery is. Next you'll be saying you believe in the existence of Australia.
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
Keir Starmer and Tony Blair
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.
He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of Watford
You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.
He is not acceptable to Momentum and they now control the membership, Pidcock or Long Bailey are their choice and if so if Boris does get a landslide we are looking at another decade of Tory rule unless the LDs can overtake Labour and win the centre
If there was an absolute landslide, which I see as unlikely, the centrist-left faction of the parliamentary party - not the original centrists, or the extra-parliamentary membership - would make it extremely difficult for that to take place, unless it was under some agreement to moderate or expand the manifesto. I'm not sure that either of those two figures would be willing to do that yet.
I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
I doubt it will be 6%. YouGov normal polling has still been ~10%. It might still be very tight on seats though.
Huh? It will show a Labour collapse in the Leave seats.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
The only word of caution I would state if this is the case, there is the prospect of shy Labour (in the way lots of people would never admit in public that they actually quite liked Thatcher).
All my Labour friends on social media, bar one, have gone very quiet about Corbyn. In real life, they always state they still like Labour brand and excuse it with despite Corbyn etc.
I have experienced the same. Most of my Corbynite friends have gone very quiet, bar a couple. The anti-Semitism stuff HAS cut through, because it is undeniable and inexcusable, and also because it destroys a key part of "Corbynism", i.e. that it is a necessarily and intrinsically fair and moral point of view.
It is very hard to say JEREMY IS RIGHT when your friendly opponent can then point to Jeremy eagerly supporting Holocaust deniers, or admiring Hamas, or defending terrorism. It means your support base is embarrassed, and they quietly desert you. Because Corbynista tend to be young and idealistic and they want to appear virtuous.
Corbyn is being defeated by the same forces that made him.
With Survation in this is the final prediction based on all the average regional subsamples from all the different pollsters when I plugg them in Electoral Calculus:
With Survation in this is the final prediction based on all the average regional subsamples from all the different pollsters when I plugg them in Electoral Calculus:
With Survation in this is the final prediction based on all the average regional subsamples from all the different pollsters when I plugg them in Electoral Calculus:
CON 346 LAB 229 SNP 40 LD 13 PC 3 GRN 1
We may have more polls in the coming days
I wont count them because poll herding always occurs in the final days.
Tory campaign chiefs to finally let Boris Johnson loose on high street walkabouts in a last 3 day bid to win over ‘red wall’ Labour heartlands #GE2019 https://t.co/UzmMWLt2I7
Boris Johnson is to visit West Yorkshire, Cheshire and Leicestershire in 72 hours. North Wales and South West will also decide the outcome of the election
Tory campaign chiefs to finally let Boris Johnson loose on high street walkabouts in a last 3 day bid to win over ‘red wall’ Labour heartlands #GE2019 https://t.co/UzmMWLt2I7
They are letting him loose on the streets and in the pubs. What could go wrong?
Boris Johnson is to visit West Yorkshire, Cheshire and Leicestershire in 72 hours. North Wales and South West will also decide the outcome of the election
Cant help but feel that if there is a genuine difference in the advertising blitz between now and Thursday that will help with the undecideds for the tories
Doesn't make sense on a 14% UK lead in Momentums own back yard? Happy if it is!
As ever, beware subsamples - the Scottish one in this poll has SLab on 32% with SNP on 34% and Scon on 26%......which would be at considerable variance with full base polls conducted in Scotland...
Should be quite a few on Wed I think - last time we had final day polls from Ipsos, BMG, Surv, ICM, YG, CR and PB. Several of them were larger samples than usual too.
Should be quite a few on Wed I think - last time we had final day polls from Ipsos, BMG, Surv, ICM, YG, CR and PB. Several of them were larger samples than usual too.
Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%
This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%
19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%
70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%
As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.
Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."
We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite
Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%
This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%
19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%
70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%
As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.
Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."
We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite
"Corbyn and Swinson between them have royally bollocksed up Remain.
An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:
Men CON 51 LAB 24
Women LAB 38 CON 38
Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.
That is amazing
Its terrifying for Labour, because men are stubborn and wonr change their minds easily
Yup. Men are programmed, by evolution, to defend the family and the tribe. They are soldier ants. Darwin demands that they protect and provide (ideally).
Corbyn is a clear threat to all of that: nation, tribe, town, family. I am not surprised that men despise him.
I think British men have just realised that Corbyn is a traitor, an appeaser, and an antiwhite anti-Jewish racist, and THEY DO NOT LIKE IT
LD drifting in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey: 16/1.
(Danny Alexander’s old seat.)
Not a surprise, the Libdems have completely given up in this seat. As I posted a few days ago, they don't even seem to be sending out leaflets there in the post.
Yes. It's interesting that they're so keen to stress the undecideds and tactical voting. The Tories are clearly ahead and probably in the 20-35 range at least at the moment, but the unusual aspects of this election are still in play.
Yes. It's interesting that they're so keen to stress the undecideds and tactical voting. The Tories are clearly ahead and probably on the 20-40 range at the moment, but the unusual aspects of this election are still in play.
I am not convinced by claims there are masses of people that really are undecided. There has been basically no variability in the gap for 5 weeks.
Tactical voting, shy Labour, and last minute cold feet Flat Cap Fred's, yes.
Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%
This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%
19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%
70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%
As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.
Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."
We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite
I despise Bozo , Remainers will never forgive him for his role in the EU ref however the stakes at the election changed once he got the deal .
Although the country is now majority for Remain when you ask the EU question , I think quite a few feel too much water has gone under the bridge now .
It does worry me what Johnson we’ll end up with after the election , I’m not sure anyone really knows. The EU just want to move on and will be relieved if there’s a majority to pass the deal .
The DUP really screwed up , when they had influence they should have pushed for a softer Brexit but hitched their wagon to the ERG.
Now they’ve overseen NI effectively hived off . No wonder Leo Varadkar loves the deal .
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
Jeremy Corbyn will promise Britain’s jaded voters that a Labour government would put “money in your pocket”, as his party makes a last-ditch push to deprive Boris Johnson of a majority at Thursday’s general election.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit
The Channel4 debate tonight I watched, it was far more informing even for me, than the 2-way debates which were soundbites and defences.
Its an improvement that there's a lot of debates and that between them all millions of people are watching and hearing very different views and details on policies (more on the multi-party debates which are more free-flowing). Many posters on here may find little value, but we're not the audience, nor are the journalist critics. My housemates (who include a Tory, a Labour council candidate, a LD activist, a Green, and several people who've never voted) and my neighbours and colleagues have all seen at least bits of the multi-party debates and have all discussed issues raised, and found them interesting. Pure anecdote, yes, but enough to raise the question as to whether views here on the debates really reflect the value of these debates...
The Channel4 debate tonight I watched, it was far more informing even for me, than the 2-way debates which were soundbites and defences.
Its an improvement that there's a lot of debates and that between them all millions of people are watching and hearing very different views and details on policies (more on the multi-party debates which are more free-flowing). Many posters on here may find little value, but we're not the audience, nor are the journalist critics. My housemates (who include a Tory, a Labour council candidate, a LD activist, a Green, and several people who've never voted) and my neighbours and colleagues have all seen at least bits of the multi-party debates and have all discussed issues raised, and found them interesting. Pure anecdote, yes, but enough to raise the question as to whether views here on the debates really reflect the value of these debates...
I was a bit flippant about this debate earlier, but didn't really mean to be. I think all of them may have made a difference to a certain extent, but the polls of the debates themselves are quite blunt and undeveloped. It's important to bear in mind that this site tends to bias to the right rather than being nationally representative.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit
It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit
It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..
Griffin appears to be a fan of Corbyn. Can't imagine why.
One thing that is amusing me is the assumption that not only are the polls significantly wrong, but significantly wrong in Labour's favour. Lots of people will be considering voting Tory for the first time in their lifetime, how keen will they be to declare that to the pollsters?
As for that twitter fight, I suspect that Mr Littlewood is extremely over the constant bull**** that a section of the Corbynite twitter try to spin. Although I'd argue that the judicious use of the block and mute buttons is an easier solution
An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:
Men CON 51 LAB 24
Women LAB 38 CON 38
Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.
That is amazing
Its terrifying for Labour, because men are stubborn and wonr change their minds easily
Well, a week ago Survation had Men Con 47.3% Lab 28.6% (Con lead by 18.7%) Women Con 38.2% Lab 38.3% (Lab lead by 0.1%) so the swing in the latest poll vs last week would seem to be driven wholly by men (or polling variance)
Lots of people saying it's all very uncertain, tactical voting, unusual movements in marginals etc.
Well in my entire living memory exactly the same thing has been said before every single GE.
I remember the end of the BBC1 10pm news the night before a Blair landslide Andrew Marr (then Political Editor) said that whilst everyone thought Lab was probably ahead there was still enormous uncertainty, people were hearing about strange movements in marginals etc.
Bottom line - the night before EVERY single British GE (and EVERY single US Presidential Election) the BBC always says it's all very uncertain, nobody is confident etc etc.
Two reasons:
1) They don't want to risk being wrong 2) They don't want to appear biased / discourage anyone from voting
So in summary the last minute analysis is completely meaningless because they always say exactly the same thing irrespective of the circumstances of the particular election.
Another classic of the genre from Brain-dead Bastani. He's obviously reading the seat percentage off Wikipedia, not the vote percentage. Labour got 54.6% of the vote in 2017, an almost 11 point increase on 2015.
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit
Pure comedy gold.
I made a very simple factual statement. You obviously find that amusing. Are you saying that statement's wrong? What do you mean 'pure comedy gold' huh?
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit
It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..
Your in great company.
@funkhauser You haven't addressed the points I'm making. I invite you to.
@Byronic suggests negative traits about Corbyn. I essentially responded that if you're voting on that basis Johnson is worse. He is recorded and not denied agreeing to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist his rich friend disagreed with. He has also directly made racist and homophobic statements. What do you say to that precise matter?
P.s. You state 'you're in good company'. I'm not a Labour supporter, indeed never voted Labour, and won't this time. Nor have I ever voted LD or Con. I don't find Corbyn's shadow cabinet particularly smart, yet Johnson's cabinet make them seem diligent, knowledgeable and caring. That's really saying something. But the distortions on this forum are a little too much to read and not respond to.
I saw the UTV Northern Ireland debate earlier, that was also very interesting, and some of the statements given during the debate were significant to Northern Ireland's future.
I saw the UTV Northern Ireland debate earlier, that was also very interesting, and some of the statements given during the debate were significant to Northern Ireland's future.
DUP's Emma Little-Pengelly managed to get a lot of Tory-like soundbites in alas... And Sinn Fein's O'Neil was also a little robotic, the others much better. Though the public seem to prefer the soundbites (looking at focus-groups response to Boris Johnson and co).
UUP, SDLP and ALL obviously at war with DUP/SF axis more than each other...
There was some chat in the previous thread about the Lib Dems ready to outperform, by winning seats like Woking. "12-1 a bargain if you can afford to lose a tenner!"
Well I'm here to tell you this is nonsense. The tactical voting websites are recommending to vote for Labour. And there's a high-single digits percent in this constituency that will always vote Labour under any circumstance.
Even in a Remain leaning commuter seat, there's no chance whatsoever that the Lib Dems will be able to squeeze Labour hard enough and take enough Tory Remainers with them to win this seat. Meanwhile there is no chance in hell that tactical wet Remainers will be backing Corbyn.
Guildford is a more nuanced and already well told story but I'd be shocked if this did anything but stay blue.
As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.
Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."
We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite
Get a grip! If the Tories win a majority, leaving the EU is guaranteed. If they don't, another EUref is guaranteed. Hardly anyone with a "Remainer" identity will vote Tory.
Comments
Maybe an ORB to come? SurveyMonkey? Perhaps some weirdo one-offs like from Wired in 2017?
Con: 404
Lab: 173
LDM: 20
SNP: 31*
PC: 3
Grn: 1
* Scotland is so marginal that a few percent worth of tactical voting is the difference between SNP 40 and SNP 20.
Batley, Bradford, Dewsbury, Halifax, Burries, Newport W, Cov S, West Brom E all falling. This would be a seismic re-alignment.
He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed on the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could only win it back
By increased work quotas. Would it not in that case be simpler
for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
All my Labour friends on social media, bar one, have gone very quiet about Corbyn. In real life, they always state they still like Labour brand and excuse it with despite Corbyn etc.
(By the way the tory lead is actually 13.6% but has been rounded up to 14%).
Corbyn will obviously resign, but, does the party move to the middle or jump further to the left?
https://twitter.com/lewis_3004/status/1203833340152946690
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1203833399250685952?s=20
Tories up 5%, Labour up 7% in the same timescale.
Meanwhile, polls!
Greater Manchester is gone!
It is very hard to say JEREMY IS RIGHT when your friendly opponent can then point to Jeremy eagerly supporting Holocaust deniers, or admiring Hamas, or defending terrorism. It means your support base is embarrassed, and they quietly desert you. Because Corbynista tend to be young and idealistic and they want to appear virtuous.
Corbyn is being defeated by the same forces that made him.
Men
CON 51
LAB 24
Women
LAB 38
CON 38
Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.
CON 346
LAB 229
SNP 40
LD 13
PC 3
GRN 1
Happy if it is!
*I am joking obviously.
Tory campaign chiefs to finally let Boris Johnson loose on high street walkabouts in a last 3 day bid to win over ‘red wall’ Labour heartlands #GE2019
https://t.co/UzmMWLt2I7
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7770213/Boris-Johnson-lay-Jeremy-Corbyn-leaving-EU.html
Calling it now. Con lead slashed to +5
This aspect has been largely ignored because they were gaining most of the Leave vote.
Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%
This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%
19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%
70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1203838706857267201?s=20
At this point I’d be freaking out if the election was being fought over a no deal exit from the EU , that was always my absolute worst nightmare.
https://twitter.com/MarkJLittlewood/status/1203837380983164929
Of course I would never be so rude.
Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."
We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite
https://www.youtube.com/user/webcameronuk/videos
(Time they updated that url.....)
Ah, fuck 'em....."
Corbyn is a clear threat to all of that: nation, tribe, town, family. I am not surprised that men despise him.
I think British men have just realised that Corbyn is a traitor, an appeaser, and an antiwhite anti-Jewish racist, and THEY DO NOT LIKE IT
These views will be hard to budge
https://twitter.com/susDissonance/status/1203831395426164737
You come for The Curtice, you better not miss.
Tactical voting, shy Labour, and last minute cold feet Flat Cap Fred's, yes.
Although the country is now majority for Remain when you ask the EU question , I think quite a few feel too much water has gone under the bridge now .
It does worry me what Johnson we’ll end up with after the election , I’m not sure anyone really knows. The EU just want to move on and will be relieved if there’s a majority to pass the deal .
The DUP really screwed up , when they had influence they should have pushed for a softer Brexit but hitched their wagon to the ERG.
Now they’ve overseen NI effectively hived off . No wonder Leo Varadkar loves the deal .
Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.
To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.
How Labour party's own report lays bare its members' vile anti-Semetic slurs including a call for Jewish people to be 'annihilated'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7770295/How-Labour-partys-report-lays-bare-members-vile-anti-Semetic-slurs.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/corbyn-launches-final-election-push-to-deny-tories-a-majority
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203832300993228800
https://twitter.com/MarkJLittlewood/status/1203833959471300608
Its an improvement that there's a lot of debates and that between them all millions of people are watching and hearing very different views and details on policies (more on the multi-party debates which are more free-flowing). Many posters on here may find little value, but we're not the audience, nor are the journalist critics. My housemates (who include a Tory, a Labour council candidate, a LD activist, a Green, and several people who've never voted) and my neighbours and colleagues have all seen at least bits of the multi-party debates and have all discussed issues raised, and found them interesting. Pure anecdote, yes, but enough to raise the question as to whether views here on the debates really reflect the value of these debates...
It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..
Your in great company.
Pure comedy gold.
https://twitter.com/NickGriffinBU/status/1025630262108073984
As for that twitter fight, I suspect that Mr Littlewood is extremely over the constant bull**** that a section of the Corbynite twitter try to spin. Although I'd argue that the judicious use of the block and mute buttons is an easier solution
Well in my entire living memory exactly the same thing has been said before every single GE.
I remember the end of the BBC1 10pm news the night before a Blair landslide Andrew Marr (then Political Editor) said that whilst everyone thought Lab was probably ahead there was still enormous uncertainty, people were hearing about strange movements in marginals etc.
Bottom line - the night before EVERY single British GE (and EVERY single US Presidential Election) the BBC always says it's all very uncertain, nobody is confident etc etc.
Two reasons:
1) They don't want to risk being wrong
2) They don't want to appear biased / discourage anyone from voting
So in summary the last minute analysis is completely meaningless because they always say exactly the same thing irrespective of the circumstances of the particular election.
You obviously find that amusing.
Are you saying that statement's wrong?
What do you mean 'pure comedy gold' huh?
You haven't addressed the points I'm making. I invite you to.
@Byronic suggests negative traits about Corbyn.
I essentially responded that if you're voting on that basis Johnson is worse. He is recorded and not denied agreeing to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist his rich friend disagreed with. He has also directly made racist and homophobic statements.
What do you say to that precise matter?
P.s. You state 'you're in good company'. I'm not a Labour supporter, indeed never voted Labour, and won't this time. Nor have I ever voted LD or Con. I don't find Corbyn's shadow cabinet particularly smart, yet Johnson's cabinet make them seem diligent, knowledgeable and caring. That's really saying something.
But the distortions on this forum are a little too much to read and not respond to.
UUP, SDLP and ALL obviously at war with DUP/SF axis more than each other...
Well I'm here to tell you this is nonsense. The tactical voting websites are recommending to vote for Labour. And there's a high-single digits percent in this constituency that will always vote Labour under any circumstance.
Even in a Remain leaning commuter seat, there's no chance whatsoever that the Lib Dems will be able to squeeze Labour hard enough and take enough Tory Remainers with them to win this seat. Meanwhile there is no chance in hell that tactical wet Remainers will be backing Corbyn.
Guildford is a more nuanced and already well told story but I'd be shocked if this did anything but stay blue.
It was sanctions that destroyed Venezuela.