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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    GN all another exciting day ahead!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    nico67 said:

    A horror poll for Labour .

    And it can’t be put down to unusually low turnout in younger people . 19% of women are still undecided , Labour just edge the Tories in that group .

    The Tories have a huge lead in men and Labour are being trounced in the over 55s .

    Labours last ditch message in those Midlands and Northern seats really needs to be now would you trust the Tories with a huge majority.

    And the Tory's last ditch message should be "If you want sane Labour back you need to give Corbyn a kicking".
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Soooo …. that gives us last polls on the Sunday before of: 14 11 10 9 15 9 8 12 7 12. Last two (Kantar/ICM) are more than a week old though.

    Maybe an ORB to come? SurveyMonkey? Perhaps some weirdo one-offs like from Wired in 2017?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited December 2019
    Plugging that into my model gives:

    Con: 404
    Lab: 173
    LDM: 20
    SNP: 31*
    PC: 3
    Grn: 1

    * Scotland is so marginal that a few percent worth of tactical voting is the difference between SNP 40 and SNP 20.

    Batley, Bradford, Dewsbury, Halifax, Burries, Newport W, Cov S, West Brom E all falling. This would be a seismic re-alignment.
  • bizarrely betfair still implies the chance of a Lab majority at 2%

    Those will be the Maomentumers you find on twitter spending their trust fund money.
  • And a look on twitter...and the Corbynites are already picking through the subsamples, reweighting etc.

    Can you link to some? Always very entertaining. :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Chameleon said:

    Plugging that into my model gives:

    Con: 404
    Lab: 173
    LDM: 20
    SNP: 31*
    PC: 3
    Grn: 1

    * Scotland is so marginal that a few percent worth of tactical voting is the difference between SNP 40 and SNP 20.

    Batley, Bradford, Dewsbury, Halifax, Burries, Newport W, Cov S, West Brom E all falling. This would be a seismic re-alignment.

    SNP 20? Now you've got my attention. :D
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    nunu2 said:

    Andrew said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.

    Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClO

    Sample, 1012.

    Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.

    Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
    Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
    I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID

    He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,385

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.

    Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?

    An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
    Keir Starmer and Tony Blair
    Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.
    He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of Watford
    You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.
    Momentum will probably go this way -

    After the uprising of the 17th of June
    The Secretary of the Writers' Union
    Had leaflets distributed on the Stalinallee
    Stating that the people
    Had forfeited the confidence of the government
    And could only win it back
    By increased work quotas. Would it not in that case be simpler
    for the government
    To dissolve the people
    And elect another?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    nunu2 said:

    Andrew said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.

    Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClO

    Sample, 1012.

    Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.

    Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
    Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
    I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID

    He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
    The only word of caution I would state if this is the case, there is the prospect of shy Labour (in the way lots of people would never admit in public that they actually quite liked Thatcher).

    All my Labour friends on social media, bar one, have gone very quiet about Corbyn. In real life, they always state they still like Labour brand and excuse it with despite Corbyn etc.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019

    I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.

    A wise move. I think this makes 20-40 seat territory more likely, but I don't think there will be a landslide either.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    Byronic said:

    Weird how this poll feels more significant than all others. Why?

    Partly: confirmation bias, for sure. All non-racist, non-Jew-haters want to see Labour thoroughly defeated and disgraced. That is the righteous position. We are all in danger of seeing what we want to see.

    BUT, also, this feels like it captures a genuine mood shift. BMG also showed a significant slide against Racist Labour. This kinda cements it. Who wants to vote for C*nts? And, not only that, Loser Marxisr C*nts?

    Die, Corbyn's Labour, Die.

    Much as this poll is great for the Tories I'd still be worried if I was a Conservative that anti-Corbyn voters won't turn out as they don't think much of Johnson either and staying at home is easier than breaking with decades of tradition and voting Labour.
  • I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.

    I doubt it will be 6%. YouGov normal polling has still been ~10%. It might still be very tight on seats though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019

    I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.

    GMB Survation had a 1% Tory lead in its final 2017 poll, tonight its final 2019 poll has a 14% Tory lead, there has clearly been a big shift to the Tories as we enter the last week from the Gold Standard pollster
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,128
    Byronic said:

    The UK is very much worth preserving...We are an island.

    I have often remarked that Northern Ireland is ignored so often and so diligently it's equivalent to hemispatial neglect. The UK is not an island.

  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    nico67 said:

    A horror poll for Labour .

    And it can’t be put down to unusually low turnout in younger people . 19% of women are still undecided , Labour just edge the Tories in that group .

    The Tories have a huge lead in men and Labour are being trounced in the over 55s .

    Labours last ditch message in those Midlands and Northern seats really needs to be now would you trust the Tories with a huge majority.

    Tories now getting a massive 76% of the 2015 Leave vote, up from 70% from the last poll. Surely that means the red wall collapses.

    (By the way the tory lead is actually 13.6% but has been rounded up to 14%).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.

    Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?

    An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
    Keir Starmer and Tony Blair
    Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.
    He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of Watford
    You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.
    He is not acceptable to Momentum and they now control the membership, Pidcock or Long Bailey are their choice and if so if Boris does get a landslide we are looking at another decade of Tory rule unless the LDs can overtake Labour and win the centre
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,128

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.

    Sacrifice the Union you say?

    'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'

    https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u
    These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.
    I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.
    As someone who was born there, NI doesn't really exist.
    I've been there. I went on a plane. I may have mentioned it.

    :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,128
    edited December 2019
    [deleted]
  • If, and this is a very very big if, this poll is correct and Labour are hammered.

    Corbyn will obviously resign, but, does the party move to the middle or jump further to the left?
  • And a look on twitter...and the Corbynites are already picking through the subsamples, reweighting etc.

    Can you link to some? Always very entertaining. :)
    https://twitter.com/corbyn4pm1989/status/1203833410281787392

    https://twitter.com/lewis_3004/status/1203833340152946690
  • kjohnw1 said:

    I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.

    Farage's last shot at claiming some glory is a Wednesday statement to tell voters in all seats bar a specified handful to vote Tory. Then take credit for the shit-storm that engulfs Labour.

    And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.

    Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....

    46-29.
    1935 general election repeat ? If landslide happens and I think the runes are showing its gonna happen, Corbyn finished, Farage seen off,Brexit done, Remain destroyed, saved from Marxism, a proper Tory majority ,what's not to like
    That would be a hell of a list achievements for Boris.

    He can retire next Christmas. Job done.
    Oh and the look on Philip Hammonds & Dominic Grieves face 😆
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    And a look on twitter...and the Corbynites are already picking through the subsamples, reweighting etc.

    Can you link to some? Always very entertaining. :)
    https://twitter.com/corbyn4pm1989/status/1203833410281787392

    https://twitter.com/lewis_3004/status/1203833340152946690
    Phone survey so expect some shy Labour. Corbyn is toxic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    One in four LibDem voters have walked away from them during the campaign. That is going to require some very VERY precise targeting to be making gains.

    Tories up 5%, Labour up 7% in the same timescale.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019

    Not happy....

    twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1203833399250685952?s=20

    Hopefully he doesn't go and smash up somewhere like he used to when he got angry...
  • All the tw@tters must be dead confused....they have had anti-Tory hashtags trending for days now.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    That WW1984 trailer is the best edited trailer of all time. Extraordinary stuff.

    Meanwhile, polls!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,385
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.

    Sacrifice the Union you say?

    'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'

    https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u
    These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.
    I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.
    As someone who was born there, NI doesn't really exist.
    I've been there. I went on a plane. I may have mentioned it.

    :)
    That just goes to show how deep the fakery is. Next you'll be saying you believe in the existence of Australia.
  • And a look on twitter...and the Corbynites are already picking through the subsamples, reweighting etc.

    Can you link to some? Always very entertaining. :)
    https://twitter.com/corbyn4pm1989/status/1203833410281787392

    https://twitter.com/lewis_3004/status/1203833340152946690
    Thanks. I always love a sample size complaint.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.

    Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?

    An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
    Keir Starmer and Tony Blair
    Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.
    He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of Watford
    You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.
    He is not acceptable to Momentum and they now control the membership, Pidcock or Long Bailey are their choice and if so if Boris does get a landslide we are looking at another decade of Tory rule unless the LDs can overtake Labour and win the centre
    If there was an absolute landslide, which I see as unlikely, the centrist-left faction of the parliamentary party - not the original centrists, or the extra-parliamentary membership - would make it extremely difficult for that to take place, unless it was under some agreement to moderate or expand the manifesto. I'm not sure that either of those two figures would be willing to do that yet.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    I wouldn't be surprised if the MRP shows something quite different - Tory lead of 6% or something. Refuse to believe Boris is anywhere near landslide territory.

    I doubt it will be 6%. YouGov normal polling has still been ~10%. It might still be very tight on seats though.
    Huh? It will show a Labour collapse in the Leave seats.

    Greater Manchester is gone!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    nunu2 said:

    Andrew said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.

    Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClO

    Sample, 1012.

    Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.

    Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
    Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
    I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID

    He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
    The only word of caution I would state if this is the case, there is the prospect of shy Labour (in the way lots of people would never admit in public that they actually quite liked Thatcher).

    All my Labour friends on social media, bar one, have gone very quiet about Corbyn. In real life, they always state they still like Labour brand and excuse it with despite Corbyn etc.
    I have experienced the same. Most of my Corbynite friends have gone very quiet, bar a couple. The anti-Semitism stuff HAS cut through, because it is undeniable and inexcusable, and also because it destroys a key part of "Corbynism", i.e. that it is a necessarily and intrinsically fair and moral point of view.

    It is very hard to say JEREMY IS RIGHT when your friendly opponent can then point to Jeremy eagerly supporting Holocaust deniers, or admiring Hamas, or defending terrorism. It means your support base is embarrassed, and they quietly desert you. Because Corbynista tend to be young and idealistic and they want to appear virtuous.

    Corbyn is being defeated by the same forces that made him.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:

    Men
    CON 51
    LAB 24

    Women
    LAB 38
    CON 38

    Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    speedy2 said:

    An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:

    Men
    CON 51
    LAB 24

    Women
    LAB 38
    CON 38

    Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.

    That is amazing
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    With Survation in this is the final prediction based on all the average regional subsamples from all the different pollsters when I plugg them in Electoral Calculus:

    CON 346
    LAB 229
    SNP 40
    LD 13
    PC 3
    GRN 1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    speedy2 said:

    With Survation in this is the final prediction based on all the average regional subsamples from all the different pollsters when I plugg them in Electoral Calculus:

    CON 346
    LAB 229
    SNP 40
    LD 13
    PC 3
    GRN 1

    We may have more polls in the coming days :o
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    Doesn't make sense on a 14% UK lead in Momentums own back yard?
    Happy if it is!
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    RobD said:

    speedy2 said:

    With Survation in this is the final prediction based on all the average regional subsamples from all the different pollsters when I plugg them in Electoral Calculus:

    CON 346
    LAB 229
    SNP 40
    LD 13
    PC 3
    GRN 1

    We may have more polls in the coming days :o
    I wont count them because poll herding always occurs in the final days.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:

    Men
    CON 51
    LAB 24

    Women
    LAB 38
    CON 38

    Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.

    I've always said it was totally wrong to give women the vote*.

    *I am joking obviously.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    argyllrs said:

    Doesn't make sense on a 14% UK lead in Momentums own back yard?
    Happy if it is!
    Subsamples, not even once!
  • Tom Newton Dunn

    Tory campaign chiefs to finally let Boris Johnson loose on high street walkabouts in a last 3 day bid to win over ‘red wall’ Labour heartlands #GE2019
    https://t.co/UzmMWLt2I7
  • Boris Johnson is to visit West Yorkshire, Cheshire and Leicestershire in 72 hours. North Wales and South West will also decide the outcome of the election

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7770213/Boris-Johnson-lay-Jeremy-Corbyn-leaving-EU.html
  • New Tory ad on Youtube homepage
  • Another Survation on Weds.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Tom Newton Dunn

    Tory campaign chiefs to finally let Boris Johnson loose on high street walkabouts in a last 3 day bid to win over ‘red wall’ Labour heartlands #GE2019
    https://t.co/UzmMWLt2I7

    They are letting him loose on the streets and in the pubs. What could go wrong? :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited December 2019

    Another Survation on Weds.

    :o

    Calling it now. Con lead slashed to +5
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Interesting once again re Tory Remainers .

    This aspect has been largely ignored because they were gaining most of the Leave vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    Boris Johnson is to visit West Yorkshire, Cheshire and Leicestershire in 72 hours. North Wales and South West will also decide the outcome of the election

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7770213/Boris-Johnson-lay-Jeremy-Corbyn-leaving-EU.html

    Yes, now the final attack into the Labour heartlands when they have little time to respond
  • Cant help but feel that if there is a genuine difference in the advertising blitz between now and Thursday that will help with the undecideds for the tories
  • argyllrs said:

    Doesn't make sense on a 14% UK lead in Momentums own back yard?
    Happy if it is!
    As ever, beware subsamples - the Scottish one in this poll has SLab on 32% with SNP on 34% and Scon on 26%......which would be at considerable variance with full base polls conducted in Scotland...
  • Another Survation on Weds.

    Is this where we see a lead of 5% :-)
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Another Survation on Weds.

    Should be quite a few on Wed I think - last time we had final day polls from Ipsos, BMG, Surv, ICM, YG, CR and PB. Several of them were larger samples than usual too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Another Survation on Weds.

    Is this where we see a lead of 5% :-)
    We are of one mind.
  • Andrew said:

    Another Survation on Weds.

    Should be quite a few on Wed I think - last time we had final day polls from Ipsos, BMG, Surv, ICM, YG, CR and PB. Several of them were larger samples than usual too.
    I don't know if I can take the pressure.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Snippets - Remainers leaving Labour, going Tory.

    Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%

    This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%


    19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%

    70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Byronic said:

    speedy2 said:

    An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:

    Men
    CON 51
    LAB 24

    Women
    LAB 38
    CON 38

    Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.

    That is amazing
    Its terrifying for Labour, because men are stubborn and wonr change their minds easily
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    After that horror Survation as a Labour supporter it can only get better or not as the case maybe !

    At this point I’d be freaking out if the election was being fought over a no deal exit from the EU , that was always my absolute worst nightmare.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019
    Centrist Phone will be re-crunching the numbers and find Tory lead is still only 3.1%....speaking of which...

    https://twitter.com/MarkJLittlewood/status/1203837380983164929

    Of course I would never be so rude.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Snippets - Remainers leaving Labour, going Tory.

    Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%

    This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%


    19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%

    70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%

    As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.

    Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."

    We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305
    rcs1000 said:

    I understand that Rod Crosby died some time ago.

    I didn't know that. I know that Plato and Mark Senior had passed on, but I didn't know about Rod Crosby.
    Very sadden to hear this news about Plato/Phillipa and Mark Senior, when did this happen?
  • New Tory ad on Youtube homepage

    Is that "a" new ad or "the latest" ad (Hung Parliament to Zadok the Priest)?

    https://www.youtube.com/user/webcameronuk/videos

    (Time they updated that url.....)
  • Betfair blue firewall definitely broken....now 1.27 with £60k of bets in a hr.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Byronic said:

    Snippets - Remainers leaving Labour, going Tory.

    Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%

    This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%


    19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%

    70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%

    As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.

    Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."

    We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite

    "Corbyn and Swinson between them have royally bollocksed up Remain.

    Ah, fuck 'em....."
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    nunu2 said:

    Byronic said:

    speedy2 said:

    An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:

    Men
    CON 51
    LAB 24

    Women
    LAB 38
    CON 38

    Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.

    That is amazing
    Its terrifying for Labour, because men are stubborn and wonr change their minds easily
    Yup. Men are programmed, by evolution, to defend the family and the tribe. They are soldier ants. Darwin demands that they protect and provide (ideally).

    Corbyn is a clear threat to all of that: nation, tribe, town, family. I am not surprised that men despise him.

    I think British men have just realised that Corbyn is a traitor, an appeaser, and an antiwhite anti-Jewish racist, and THEY DO NOT LIKE IT

    These views will be hard to budge

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2019
    argyllrs said:


    Doesn't make sense on a 14% UK lead in Momentums own back yard?
    Happy if it is!

    London figures based on a poll of overall 1k. That's going to be 110-120? people. And unweighted?

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,305

    LD drifting in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey: 16/1.

    (Danny Alexander’s old seat.)

    Not a surprise, the Libdems have completely given up in this seat. As I posted a few days ago, they don't even seem to be sending out leaflets there in the post.
  • twitter.com/Survation/status/1203838706857267201

    Didn't they have 3 "final" polls in 2017?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019

    twitter.com/Survation/status/1203838706857267201

    Didn't they have 3 "final" polls in 2017?
    Yes. It's interesting that they're so keen to stress the undecideds and tactical voting. The Tories are clearly ahead and probably in the 20-35 range at least at the moment, but the unusual aspects of this election are still in play.
  • My favourite is 10.01PM on an election night when people start with 'the exit poll is ALWAYS WRONG!'.

    You come for The Curtice, you better not miss.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019

    twitter.com/Survation/status/1203838706857267201

    Didn't they have 3 "final" polls in 2017?
    Yes. It's interesting that they're so keen to stress the undecideds and tactical voting. The Tories are clearly ahead and probably on the 20-40 range at the moment, but the unusual aspects of this election are still in play.
    I am not convinced by claims there are masses of people that really are undecided. There has been basically no variability in the gap for 5 weeks.

    Tactical voting, shy Labour, and last minute cold feet Flat Cap Fred's, yes.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Byronic said:

    Snippets - Remainers leaving Labour, going Tory.

    Last week Remainers split : Labour 49%, Tories 14% - gap 35%

    This week: Labour 46%, Tories 16% - gap 30%


    19% of Remainers think Boris would be best PM; 39% of Remainers think Corbyn - gap 20%

    70% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM; 19% of Leavers think Corbyn - gap 51%

    As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.

    Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."

    We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite

    I despise Bozo , Remainers will never forgive him for his role in the EU ref however the stakes at the election changed once he got the deal .

    Although the country is now majority for Remain when you ask the EU question , I think quite a few feel too much water has gone under the bridge now .

    It does worry me what Johnson we’ll end up with after the election , I’m not sure anyone really knows. The EU just want to move on and will be relieved if there’s a majority to pass the deal .

    The DUP really screwed up , when they had influence they should have pushed for a softer Brexit but hitched their wagon to the ERG.

    Now they’ve overseen NI effectively hived off . No wonder Leo Varadkar loves the deal .
  • olmolm Posts: 125
    Byronic said:

    nunu2 said:

    Andrew said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.

    Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClO

    Sample, 1012.

    Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.

    Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
    Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
    I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID

    He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
    Seriously @Byronic

    Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.

    To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.




  • Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism...

    How Labour party's own report lays bare its members' vile anti-Semetic slurs including a call for Jewish people to be 'annihilated'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7770295/How-Labour-partys-report-lays-bare-members-vile-anti-Semetic-slurs.html
  • Jeremy Corbyn will promise Britain’s jaded voters that a Labour government would put “money in your pocket”, as his party makes a last-ditch push to deprive Boris Johnson of a majority at Thursday’s general election.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/corbyn-launches-final-election-push-to-deny-tories-a-majority
  • olmolm Posts: 125
    olm said:

    Byronic said:

    nunu2 said:

    Andrew said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.

    Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClO

    Sample, 1012.

    Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.

    Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
    Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
    I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID

    He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
    Seriously @Byronic

    Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.

    To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.


    Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit
  • olmolm Posts: 125
    edited December 2019
    The Channel4 debate tonight I watched, it was far more informing even for me, than the 2-way debates which were soundbites and defences.

    Its an improvement that there's a lot of debates and that between them all millions of people are watching and hearing very different views and details on policies (more on the multi-party debates which are more free-flowing). Many posters on here may find little value, but we're not the audience, nor are the journalist critics. My housemates (who include a Tory, a Labour council candidate, a LD activist, a Green, and several people who've never voted) and my neighbours and colleagues have all seen at least bits of the multi-party debates and have all discussed issues raised, and found them interesting. Pure anecdote, yes, but enough to raise the question as to whether views here on the debates really reflect the value of these debates...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    olm said:

    The Channel4 debate tonight I watched, it was far more informing even for me, than the 2-way debates which were soundbites and defences.

    Its an improvement that there's a lot of debates and that between them all millions of people are watching and hearing very different views and details on policies (more on the multi-party debates which are more free-flowing). Many posters on here may find little value, but we're not the audience, nor are the journalist critics. My housemates (who include a Tory, a Labour council candidate, a LD activist, a Green, and several people who've never voted) and my neighbours and colleagues have all seen at least bits of the multi-party debates and have all discussed issues raised, and found them interesting. Pure anecdote, yes, but enough to raise the question as to whether views here on the debates really reflect the value of these debates...

    I was a bit flippant about this debate earlier, but didn't really mean to be. I think all of them may have made a difference to a certain extent, but the polls of the debates themselves are quite blunt and undeveloped. It's important to bear in mind that this site tends to bias to the right rather than being nationally representative.
  • olm said:

    olm said:

    Byronic said:

    nunu2 said:

    Andrew said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.

    Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClO

    Sample, 1012.

    Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.

    Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
    Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
    I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID

    He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
    Seriously @Byronic

    Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.

    To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.


    Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit

    It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..

    Your in great company.

  • olm said:

    olm said:

    Byronic said:

    nunu2 said:

    Andrew said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.

    Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClO

    Sample, 1012.

    Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.

    Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
    Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
    I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID

    He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
    Seriously @Byronic

    Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.

    To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.


    Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit

    Pure comedy gold.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..

    Griffin appears to be a fan of Corbyn. Can't imagine why.


    https://twitter.com/NickGriffinBU/status/1025630262108073984
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited December 2019
    One thing that is amusing me is the assumption that not only are the polls significantly wrong, but significantly wrong in Labour's favour. Lots of people will be considering voting Tory for the first time in their lifetime, how keen will they be to declare that to the pollsters?

    As for that twitter fight, I suspect that Mr Littlewood is extremely over the constant bull**** that a section of the Corbynite twitter try to spin. Although I'd argue that the judicious use of the block and mute buttons is an easier solution
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    edited December 2019
    nunu2 said:

    Byronic said:

    speedy2 said:

    An astonishing gender gap on the Survation survey:

    Men
    CON 51
    LAB 24

    Women
    LAB 38
    CON 38

    Other polls also have shown that Labour has a masculinity problem.

    That is amazing
    Its terrifying for Labour, because men are stubborn and wonr change their minds easily
    Well, a week ago Survation had Men Con 47.3% Lab 28.6% (Con lead by 18.7%) Women Con 38.2% Lab 38.3% (Lab lead by 0.1%) so the swing in the latest poll vs last week would seem to be driven wholly by men (or polling variance)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited December 2019
    Lots of people saying it's all very uncertain, tactical voting, unusual movements in marginals etc.

    Well in my entire living memory exactly the same thing has been said before every single GE.

    I remember the end of the BBC1 10pm news the night before a Blair landslide Andrew Marr (then Political Editor) said that whilst everyone thought Lab was probably ahead there was still enormous uncertainty, people were hearing about strange movements in marginals etc.

    Bottom line - the night before EVERY single British GE (and EVERY single US Presidential Election) the BBC always says it's all very uncertain, nobody is confident etc etc.

    Two reasons:

    1) They don't want to risk being wrong
    2) They don't want to appear biased / discourage anyone from voting

    So in summary the last minute analysis is completely meaningless because they always say exactly the same thing irrespective of the circumstances of the particular election.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    Another classic of the genre from Brain-dead Bastani. He's obviously reading the seat percentage off Wikipedia, not the vote percentage. Labour got 54.6% of the vote in 2017, an almost 11 point increase on 2015.
  • olmolm Posts: 125

    olm said:

    olm said:

    Byronic said:

    nunu2 said:

    Andrew said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.

    Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClO

    Sample, 1012.

    Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.

    Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
    Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
    I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID

    He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
    Seriously @Byronic

    Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.

    To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.


    Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit

    Pure comedy gold.
    I made a very simple factual statement.
    You obviously find that amusing.
    Are you saying that statement's wrong?
    What do you mean 'pure comedy gold' huh?
  • olmolm Posts: 125
    edited December 2019

    olm said:

    olm said:

    Byronic said:

    nunu2 said:

    Andrew said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Anyone seen sample size? Survation are usually 1k, 3% MoE.

    Tables - https://t.co/AmDgQntClO

    Sample, 1012.

    Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.

    Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
    Opinium also had a 15% Tory lead. What's more the fieldwork for this poll ended yesterday evening.
    I do wonder if Britain has had a proper, belated look at Jeremy Corbyn, and thought: OMFG GET RID

    He is a revolting, repulsive and racist old git, so it would be fair. And the British are a fair people. Who wants to be associated with Jeremy Corbyn?!
    Seriously @Byronic

    Anyone who would propose or vote for a revolting, repulsive, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-Semitic, pathologically-lying prime minister who offered to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist... needs to re-examine their mindset.

    To compare Johnson to Corbyn on any metric of racism, lying, repulsion Johnson is worse hands down.


    Even on the polls best for the Tories, more people are voting for Lab/PC/SNP/GRN/ALL/SDLP/SF/UUP (or against Tories) vs DUP/Con/Brexit

    It's Corbyn's Labour party that's being investigated for alleged racism by the Equality & Human Rights Commission & the only other party that was also investigated was the BNP..

    Your in great company.

    @funkhauser
    You haven't addressed the points I'm making. I invite you to.

    @Byronic suggests negative traits about Corbyn.
    I essentially responded that if you're voting on that basis Johnson is worse. He is recorded and not denied agreeing to arrange a thug to beat up a journalist his rich friend disagreed with. He has also directly made racist and homophobic statements.
    What do you say to that precise matter?

    P.s. You state 'you're in good company'. I'm not a Labour supporter, indeed never voted Labour, and won't this time. Nor have I ever voted LD or Con. I don't find Corbyn's shadow cabinet particularly smart, yet Johnson's cabinet make them seem diligent, knowledgeable and caring. That's really saying something.
    But the distortions on this forum are a little too much to read and not respond to.
  • olmolm Posts: 125
    I saw the UTV Northern Ireland debate earlier, that was also very interesting, and some of the statements given during the debate were significant to Northern Ireland's future.
  • olmolm Posts: 125
    edited December 2019
    olm said:

    I saw the UTV Northern Ireland debate earlier, that was also very interesting, and some of the statements given during the debate were significant to Northern Ireland's future.

    DUP's Emma Little-Pengelly managed to get a lot of Tory-like soundbites in alas... And Sinn Fein's O'Neil was also a little robotic, the others much better. Though the public seem to prefer the soundbites (looking at focus-groups response to Boris Johnson and co).

    UUP, SDLP and ALL obviously at war with DUP/SF axis more than each other...
  • viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    The UK is very much worth preserving...We are an island.

    I have often remarked that Northern Ireland is ignored so often and so diligently it's equivalent to hemispatial neglect.
    What level of support in NI does Boris Johnson have for his proposed arrangements for NI? Is it even 10%? 5%?

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    There was some chat in the previous thread about the Lib Dems ready to outperform, by winning seats like Woking. "12-1 a bargain if you can afford to lose a tenner!"

    Well I'm here to tell you this is nonsense. The tactical voting websites are recommending to vote for Labour. And there's a high-single digits percent in this constituency that will always vote Labour under any circumstance.

    Even in a Remain leaning commuter seat, there's no chance whatsoever that the Lib Dems will be able to squeeze Labour hard enough and take enough Tory Remainers with them to win this seat. Meanwhile there is no chance in hell that tactical wet Remainers will be backing Corbyn.

    Guildford is a more nuanced and already well told story but I'd be shocked if this did anything but stay blue.
  • Byronic said:

    As an actual Remain result recedes into the distance, Remainers will be thinking: who will best defend my interests.

    Given that - as we are so often told! - Remainers tend to be richer and better educated, most of them will be thinking: "Shit, Boris Johnson is the better bet, he won't turn the UK into Venezuela."

    We may be witnessing the birth of the Shy Remainer Borisite

    Get a grip! If the Tories win a majority, leaving the EU is guaranteed. If they don't, another EUref is guaranteed. Hardly anyone with a "Remainer" identity will vote Tory.

    It was sanctions that destroyed Venezuela.
This discussion has been closed.