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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Election preview / will there be a hung parliament?

On the latest PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi delve deep into the numbers to preview what will happen Thursday. They ask ‘who has had a good or bad campaign?’ and crucially ‘Will there be a hung parliament?’

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

First.

Ave_it

BMG 9% lead is ok

Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.

Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !

RobD

That image haunts me.

PeterMannion

4th like Swinson

FrancisUrquhart

I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.

Scrapheap_as_was

Vote Gauke!

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203754264192880640

FrancisUrquhart

Ave_it said:

BMG 9% lead is ok

Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.

Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !

Is there any actual proof that a leader visit does boost performance?

Charles

@ydoethur FPT

I will admit that the business model evolved over the years, but the shop still has its own hallmark 😉

Big_G_NorthWales

FrancisUrquhart said:

I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.

Just out of interest are you calmer now

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ave_it said:

BMG 9% lead is ok

Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.

Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !

Is there any actual proof that a leader visit does boost performance?

Yes. But only if they are the only leader to visit.

FrancisUrquhart

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203754264192880640

Personally, with nothing more than general feeling, 41-42% for Tories seem more realistic than the 44-45% and Labour (given how unpopular their leader is) on 32% than 35%.

Jonathan

Ave_it said:

BMG 9% lead is ok

Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.

Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !

Clearly making sure IDS loses, one headache our ‘one nation’ pm can do without.

nico67

As a Labour supporter if someone offered me the final polls and they showed tonight’s BMG I would take that at this stage given some of the other weekend polls.

A 9 point lead for the Tories but with those high scores for the Lib Dems and Greens .

Labour would need to make up 4 points to throw the Tories majority into doubt .

Scrapheap_as_was

Sorry to be missing C4...

https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1203756304537243648?s=20

FrancisUrquhart

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.

Just out of interest are you calmer now

Keeping busy with work / general election data scraping.

ydoethur

Charles said:

@ydoethur FPT

I will admit that the business model evolved over the years, but the shop still has its own hallmark 😉

The gold standard of finance?

FrancisUrquhart

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Sorry to be missing C4...

twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1203756304537243648?s=20

Sounds like Tories have pulled a wise move again ignoring C4.

Byronic

That's an excellent poll for the Tories, in context. Even BMG are showing them in firm overall majority terroir.

I wonder if we ARE seeing a repeat of 2017, but the bit right at the end, when TMay's VI strengthened slightly, and Labour tailed off slightly.

The difference back then was that, before this final movement, the two parties were basically level pegging. Now it is happening with the Tories already 7-9% ahead.

If it is recurring, Boris could exceed my expectations and get a 60+ majority.

Big_G_NorthWales

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Sorry to be missing C4...

https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1203756304537243648?s=20

I am not.

I determined some time ago not to watch the debates or QT with the exception of the two Boris v Corbyn ones

I need to keep my sanity and even those two tested it

Andy_JS

1.32

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.136297311

Big_G_NorthWales

Anyway only 3 days more campaigning to go

And then the 10 pm exit poll

Fysics_Teacher

Is anyone watching the debate?

FrancisUrquhart

Re debates, I think it is very disappointing we haven't had a chancellor / shadow chancellor one. At the end of the day, without a solid economy all the other stuff is irrelevant.

RobD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anyway only 3 days more campaigning to go

And then the 10 pm exit poll

BONG!

FrancisUrquhart

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.

WhisperingOracle

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but that may take a point or two off the total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

Re debates, I think it is very disappointing we haven't had a chancellor / shadow chancellor one. At the end of the day, without a solid economy all the other stuff is irrelevant.

Since neither of them are offering that, what would you learn from it?

Fysics_Teacher

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.

Do you have to subscribe?

ydoethur

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes easier as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, and to have been conducted largely before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to change that.

Or the Tories, of course...

ralphmalph

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Yes and my take is the SNP lady is very good, not surprising because she is a surgeon and delivers her message and a calm and knowledgeable way.

Andy_JS

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203726647532363779

PeterMannion

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.

Just out of interest are you calmer now

Keeping busy with work / general election data scraping.

I thought you were stopping with this gif shit?

Is there a way to disable it?

Fysics_Teacher

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

How many people watching that debate will have changed their minds do you think?

HaroldO

Theres a debate on channel 4 tonight?!

IshmaelZ

FrancisUrquhart said:

I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.

OMG I had forgotten swingback. A reminder of days so incredibly far removed from us, that there was only one antisemite posting here.

Byronic

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.

Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.

FrancisUrquhart

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.

Do you have to subscribe?

Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.

Byronic

Fysics_Teacher said:

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

How many people watching that debate will have changed their minds do you think?

~0

Big_G_NorthWales

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

You should take into account that last week was taken up with Boris dealing with a terrorist attack, Trump and NATO, all of which Boris came out from well

I would not be surprised if that last week will filter through in favour of Boris in the polls

Fysics_Teacher

ralphmalph said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Yes and my take is the SNP lady is very good, not surprising because she is a surgeon and delivers her message and a calm and knowledgeable way.

Surgeons are usually very good at being reassuring. Until you get one who greets you with “hello sir, do you remember teaching me?”

FrancisUrquhart

PeterMannion said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.

Just out of interest are you calmer now

Keeping busy with work / general election data scraping.

I thought you were stopping with this gif shit?

Is there a way to disable it?

Calm down dear. A poster said they suffered with a condition that meant if lots were posted it was very difficult, so I obviously said I would respect that and they said one is fine, just not lots of them.

ralphmalph

Fysics_Teacher said:

ralphmalph said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Yes and my take is the SNP lady is very good, not surprising because she is a surgeon and delivers her message and a calm and knowledgeable way.

Surgeons are usually very good at being reassuring. Until you get one who greets you with “hello sir, do you remember teaching me?”

LoL

WhisperingOracle

Byronic said:

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.

Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.

Probably not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying desperately to keep either Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.

Fysics_Teacher

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.

Do you have to subscribe?

Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.

I’ll stick to the complete games on YouTube then.

FrancisUrquhart

IshmaelZ said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.

OMG I had forgotten swingback. A reminder of days so incredibly far removed from us, that there was only one antisemite posting here.

Unlike his claims about the Jews, he was correct about swingback.

HYUFD

Ave_it said:

BMG 9% lead is ok

Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.

Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !

Yougov MRP has the Tories only 9% ahead in Chingford but 11% ahead nationally, Dataprix today has the Tories just 2% ahead in Chingford but getting a majority over 30 nationally.

Chingford is now more Labour than the national average due to demographic change

noisywinter

Now 1.32....oooh i say

maaarsh

Fysics_Teacher said:

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

How many people watching that debate will have changed their minds do you think?

I think at least 1 of the 3 will

Endillion

ralphmalph said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Yes and my take is the SNP lady is very good, not surprising because she is a surgeon and delivers her message and a calm and knowledgeable way.

Nicola Surgeon?

FrancisUrquhart

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.

Do you have to subscribe?

Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.

I’ll stick to the complete games on YouTube then.

That is also really good....Machine Learning automatic highlight generation posted within 30 mins of the end of the game. I notice Sky Sports are now doing that with the footy. I haven't watched MOTD this season, because of it.

The powers that be really need to copy the Redzone offering though.

Byronic

WhisperingOracle said:

Byronic said:

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.

Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.

Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.

Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!

So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.

FrancisUrquhart

noisywinter said:

Now 1.32....oooh i say

I think it hit 1.31 late last night, before drifting back out through today.

roserees64

People are also scrabbling to keep the Tories out,not just Corbyn!

Fysics_Teacher

WhisperingOracle said:

Byronic said:

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.

Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.

Probably not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.

When the dust settles I would not be surprised to find the wild and unprecedentedly odd patterns of tactical voting end up canceling themselves out.

Or we get a Corbyn majority on 28% of the vote.

FrancisUrquhart

It will be interesting to see what MRP lead is based on. Last time it was 11%, I am guessing 9-10% this time.

Andy_JS

HYUFD said:

Ave_it said:

BMG 9% lead is ok

Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.

Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !

Yougov MRP has the Tories only 9% ahead in Chingford but 11% ahead nationally, Daraprix today has the Tories just 2% ahead in Chingford but getting a majority over 30 nationally.

Chingford is now more Labour than the national average due to demographic change

The problem is the next door seat in Walthamstow had a Labour share of 81% at the previous election. You usually get a spillover effect from one seat to the next and the fact that Walthamstow has shifted from being Tory in 1987 to one of the safest Labour seats today has inevitably affected Chingford to a certain extent.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

It will be interesting to see what MRP lead is based on. Last time it was 11%, I am guessing 9-10% this time.

I'm betting it'll show a Labour Majority.

numbertwelve

BMG moves into line with the majority of the other pollsters, then.

IF the polls are right I think it's hard to see any other result than a Tory majority now. The question is the size.

Have the polls got it right, though?

Byronic

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Ave_it said:

BMG 9% lead is ok

Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.

Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !

Yougov MRP has the Tories only 9% ahead in Chingford but 11% ahead nationally, Daraprix today has the Tories just 2% ahead in Chingford but getting a majority over 30 nationally.

Chingford is now more Labour than the national average due to demographic change

The problem is the next door seat in Walthamstow had a Labour share of 81% at the previous election. You usually get a spillover effect from one seat to the next and the fact that Walthamstow has shifted from being Tory in 1987 to one of the safest Labour seats today has inevitably affected Chingford to a certain extent.

The Tories will clearly lose Chingford, for the foreseeable future, quite soon. But Corbyn and Brexit may save IDS this time.

NickPalmer

Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:

* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.

* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).

* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.

* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.

Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.

Fysics_Teacher

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.

Do you have to subscribe?

Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.

I’ll stick to the complete games on YouTube then.

That is also really good....Machine Learning automatic highlight generation posted within 30 mins of the end of the game. I notice Sky Sports are now doing that with the footy. I haven't watched MOTD this season, because of it.

The powers that be really need to copy the Redzone offering though.

The ones I see aren’t highlights, but complete games with the ads edited out. I’m surprised they are not taken down due to copyright tbh.

HYUFD

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

No, I am doing what normal people do this evening and watching Strictly.

Boris and Corbyn are not in the debate anyway

noisywinter

FrancisUrquhart said:

noisywinter said:

Now 1.32....oooh i say

I think it hit 1.31 late last night, before drifting back out through today.

now 1.31....surely your relentless pessimism must be relenting a little

Andy_JS

1.32 has been gobbled up.

WhisperingOracle

Byronic said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Byronic said:

WhisperingOracle said:

The majority of PB breathes as a sigh of relief as a greater tory lead is posted.

However, that poll seems not in fact to be that up to date, as it seems to have been conducted largely, or completely, before a very close debate. Only 4 million watched, but it may take a point or two off that total.

I think at the moment we are maybe in a tory majority of 20 zone, with Labour having three days to do anything about that.

The Tories are on average about 10-11% ahead.

Even ignoring other factors (eg Boris' probable out-performance in Labour marginals) such a result would give them a significantly bigger majority than 20.

Not, though, if what people are saying are wild and unprecedently odd patterns of tactical voting are taken into account. A lot of people seem to be scrabbling around in the dark trying either to keep Corbyn or Brexit out. I don't think there's ever been an election like this, in that sense.

Sure. But I am saying: just look at the polls. Because, for every anecdote you can produce - there's a youthquake! - I can do the same - look at the feedback from canvassers and focus groups!

So let's just stick to hard data and the hard data we have are: regular polls, MRP polls, and constituency polls, and ALL of those are now pointing to a sizeable Tory majority. With three days to go.

This is true. Let's see if the British polling industry has got its act together.

FrancisUrquhart

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.

Do you have to subscribe?

Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.

I’ll stick to the complete games on YouTube then.

That is also really good....Machine Learning automatic highlight generation posted within 30 mins of the end of the game. I notice Sky Sports are now doing that with the footy. I haven't watched MOTD this season, because of it.

The powers that be really need to copy the Redzone offering though.

The ones I see aren’t highlights, but complete games with the ads edited out. I’m surprised they are not taken down due to copyright tbh.

Ohhhh...the official NFL channel puts up 10 mins highlight packages for each game that are automatically generated, and they appear about 30 mins after the completion of the game.

matt

FrancisUrquhart said:

Re debates, I think it is very disappointing we haven't had a chancellor / shadow chancellor one. At the end of the day, without a solid economy all the other stuff is irrelevant.

I think, post-election and whatever the result there needs to be a framework agreed between TV media and the parties. The debates, the people and the parties. It will stop, or at least hinder, the twattery on both sides.

FrancisUrquhart

Some game between the 49ers and the Saints, 28 - 27 at half time.

nunu2

FrancisUrquhart said:

It will be interesting to see what MRP lead is based on. Last time it was 11%, I am guessing 9-10% this time.

I think it will show a bigger Tory majority on a smaller tory lead.

FrancisUrquhart

matt said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Re debates, I think it is very disappointing we haven't had a chancellor / shadow chancellor one. At the end of the day, without a solid economy all the other stuff is irrelevant.

I think, post-election and whatever the result there needs to be a framework agreed between TV media and the parties. The debates, the people and the parties. It will stop, or at least hinder, the twattery on both sides.

Totally agree. I actually think we should also have yearly QT with them on. That is good for democracy.

Fysics_Teacher

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some game between the 49ers and the Saints, 28 - 27 at half time.

Spoilers!

matt

PeterMannion said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I couple of things that we used to think was always truth until 2017....swingback to the government in the last week and take the worst Labour score and best Tory.

Just out of interest are you calmer now

Keeping busy with work / general election data scraping.

I thought you were stopping with this gif shit?

Is there a way to disable it?

At the same time one can disable or avoid the retarded Twitter-scrapers.

Benpointer

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203726647532363779

"His plummy voice and silly hair and constant jokes [sic] are deeple, even reassuringly, British..."

FFS! Even if the author is British, this is an American stereotype of britishness based on Downton Abbey crossed with Four Weddings.

HYUFD

Byronic said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Ave_it said:

BMG 9% lead is ok

Bit worried about Boris being in Chingford. Where the leaders are late on is a STRONG indication of close contests.

Maybe Boris will be in Argyll tomorrow !

Yougov MRP has the Tories only 9% ahead in Chingford but 11% ahead nationally, Daraprix today has the Tories just 2% ahead in Chingford but getting a majority over 30 nationally.

Chingford is now more Labour than the national average due to demographic change

The problem is the next door seat in Walthamstow had a Labour share of 81% at the previous election. You usually get a spillover effect from one seat to the next and the fact that Walthamstow has shifted from being Tory in 1987 to one of the safest Labour seats today has inevitably affected Chingford to a certain extent.

The Tories will clearly lose Chingford, for the foreseeable future, quite soon. But Corbyn and Brexit may save IDS this time.

IDS is a good MP but from my canvassing in Chingford and Woodford Green if his opponent was a LD or Independent he might well have lost on Thursday, fear of Corbyn amongst Tory and LD Remainers will I think see him scrape home

Byronic

NickPalmer said:

Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:

* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.

* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).

* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.

* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.

Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.

You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?

Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.

https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/

Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.

I have never felt so sorry for you.

Benpointer

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.

Do you have to subscribe?

Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.

How many of the seven hours actually feature live action?

FrancisUrquhart

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Is anyone watching the debate?

Are your mental, NFL RedZone is on....SEEVVVVVEEENNNN Hours of commercial free football.

Do you have to subscribe?

Its on Sky Sports Mix in the UK and via subscription of NFL Game Pass.

How many of the seven hours actually feature live action?

100% *....that is why it is just genius....it is 7hrs of live action, no ads, no waiting for the next play, they just flip between all the games when there is action.

* well probably 95-99%.

KentRising

I'm in the Canterbury constituency and just received a Labour leaflet - a letter from Tim Walker, the Lib Dem candidate who stood down (though who was replaced), pleading for Remainers to vote for Rosie Duffield against "Vote Leave's" Anna Firth.

Is it wise reinforcing your opponent's leave credentials, and your candidate's hard remain credentials, in a constituency that voted 51% to leave? There is no Brexit Party candidate here.

In the bin.

Big_G_NorthWales

Current Polling Compared to This Time in the 2017 Campaign:

CON: 42.8% (-0.5)
LAB: 32.9% (-3.8)
LDM: 12.4% (+4.6)
BXP: 3.1% (-1.2)*
GRN: 2.6% (+0.7)

*Changes w/ UKIP vote share. https://t.co/4ceR0aUs2m

matt

Byronic said:

NickPalmer said:

Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:

* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.

* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).

* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.

* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.

Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.

You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?

Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.

https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/

Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.

I have never felt so sorry for you.

Palmer spent years lying to Broxtowe voters about being a Marxist enthusiast while voting for everything the Blair and Brown administrations proposed. He is political cancer personified. One doesn’t feel sorry for that. Liar is as liar does.

NickPalmer

Byronic said:

You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?

Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.

https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/

Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.

I have never felt so sorry for you.

It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.

But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.

Alphabet_Soup

numbertwelve said:

BMG moves into line with the majority of the other pollsters, then.

IF the polls are right I think it's hard to see any other result than a Tory majority now. The question is the size.

Have the polls got it right, though?

If the polls are all wrong it must surely mark the end of the polling industry. They might as well do something useful instead, such as planting trees.

KentRising

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203726647532363779

Is Johnsonian Conservatism much different to the stuff the SDP is/was proposing? Socially (relatively) conservative, economically liberal? He will have to keep tacking that way if he really does break down Labour's northern "Red Wall".

Byronic

matt said:

Byronic said:

NickPalmer said:

Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:

* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.

* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).

* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.

* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.

Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.

You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?

Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.

https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/

Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.

I have never felt so sorry for you.

Palmer spent years lying to Broxtowe voters about being a Marxist enthusiast while voting for everything the Blair and Brown administrations proposed. He is political cancer personified. One doesn’t feel sorry for that. Liar is as liar does.

No, I'll defend Nick. He's a decent bloke, just blinkered and misguidedly loyal to some real villains. He would have been first out of the trenches at the Somme - following idiot generals - and amongst the first to get mown down.

Fysics_Teacher

Byronic said:

matt said:

Byronic said:

NickPalmer said:

Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:

* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.

* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).

* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.

* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.

Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.

You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?

Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.

https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/

Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.

I have never felt so sorry for you.

Palmer spent years lying to Broxtowe voters about being a Marxist enthusiast while voting for everything the Blair and Brown administrations proposed. He is political cancer personified. One doesn’t feel sorry for that. Liar is as liar does.

No, I'll defend Nick. He's a decent bloke, just blinkered and misguidedly loyal to some real villains. He would have been first out of the trenches at the Somme - following idiot generals - and amongst the first to get mown down.

Not many generals leading the charge at that battle.

Alphabet_Soup

NickPalmer said:

Byronic said:

You did read the revelation that Team Corbyn are only sending these huge packs of canvassers to Corbynite/Momentum candidates, whatever their electoral chances?

Your guy in Broxtowe is a Momentum favourite.

https://labourlist.org/2017/11/momentum-delight-as-clp-picks-local-councillor-to-fight-sacked-minister-soubry/

Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell don't give a fuck about your chances of winning this election, they just want to seize the entire Labour Party for themselves and their cause.

I have never felt so sorry for you.

It's not a revelation, it's a Sunday Times story. And it's incorrect. I was findinga similar tidal wave of helpers in Portsmouth South (where the Labour MP is not remotely Corbynite), including lots of Momentum members from along the coast. There are even more here because it's the main target near Nottingham, which is a Labour stronghold with a huge membership.

But I'm not predicting a win as a result. Having a of people is great, but only part of a winning strategy.

Is there any evidence that flooding a respectable neighbourhood with Momentum activists helps your cause? Are you sure they haven't been sent by the Tories?

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/Brikka43/status/1203762854505123843

The former MP might be staying up for this.

bigjohnowls

numbertwelve said:

BMG moves into line with the majority of the other pollsters, then.

IF the polls are right I think it's hard to see any other result than a Tory majority now. The question is the size.

Have the polls got it right, though?

I think they have Lab anywhere between. 20-40 losses in England and 10 more elsewhere imo.

Said all along a Jester maj of 20+

Lab could not overcome both Corbyn and Brexit unpopularity.

Last hope is tactical voting like never seen before but a single figure Tory Maj is best Non Cons can hope for.

At least we will Leave the EU but the divide will get worse whether we do or not under the most right wing Government of my lifetime imo

Sunil_Prasannan

Sunil_Prasannan said:

** Drum roll **

Preliminary Sunil on Sunday ELBOW data (still awaiting Survation and BMG!): 11 polls with fieldwork end-dates 2nd to 8th December:

Con 43.0 (+0.4)
Lab 33.1 (+0.2)
LD 12.6 (-0.5)
Brex 2.9 (-0.6)

Con lead 9.9 (+0.2)

MarqueeMark said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Andy_JS said:

BMG:

Con 41% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
LD 14% (+1)
BRX 4% (nc)

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/775713-uk-pm-johnson-extends-lead-over-labour-to-9-points---bmg-poll

6% lead last week turns into a 9% lead this week...

can we ELBOW it in?

Adjustment for BMG (comparison with last week's ELBOW):

Con 42.8 (+0.2)
Lab 33.0 (+0.1)
LD 12.7 (-0.4)
Brex 3.0 (-0.5)

Con lead 9.8 (+0.1)

ydoethur

Fysics_Teacher said:

Byronic said:

No, I'll defend Nick. He's a decent bloke, just blinkered and misguidedly loyal to some real villains. He would have been first out of the trenches at the Somme - following idiot generals - and amongst the first to get mown down.

Not many generals leading the charge at that battle.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25776836

Although actually the worst casualty rates were among subalterns - 19% compared to 12% in the ranks.

bigjohnowls

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/Brikka43/status/1203762854505123843

The former MP might be staying up for this.

Doubt that result.

Cookie

KentRising said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203726647532363779

Is Johnsonian Conservatism much different to the stuff the SDP is/was proposing? Socially (relatively) conservative, economically liberal? He will have to keep tacking that way if he really does break down Labour's northern "Red Wall".

Nick Timothy (yes, I know) has written several articles in the Telegraph arguing that that is exactly what would happen should the Conservative Party find itself with a majority based on places like Bassetlaw.

TheScreamingEagles

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/Brikka43/status/1203762854505123843

The former MP might be staying up for this.

IT IS A SPOOF ACCOUNT.

nunu2

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Current Polling Compared to This Time in the 2017 Campaign:

CON: 42.8% (-0.5)
LAB: 32.9% (-3.8)
LDM: 12.4% (+4.6)
BXP: 3.1% (-1.2)*
GRN: 2.6% (+0.7)

*Changes w/ UKIP vote share. https://t.co/4ceR0aUs2m

A net 3.5% better for tories than last time =6.5% tory lead. Hmmmm. Too close for comfort.

Jonathan

bigjohnowls said:

numbertwelve said:

BMG moves into line with the majority of the other pollsters, then.

IF the polls are right I think it's hard to see any other result than a Tory majority now. The question is the size.

Have the polls got it right, though?

I think they have Lab anywhere between. 20-40 losses in England and 10 more elsewhere imo.

Said all along a Jester maj of 20+

Lab could not overcome both Corbyn and Brexit unpopularity.

Last hope is tactical voting like never seen before but a single figure Tory Maj is best Non Cons can hope for.

At least we will Leave the EU but the divide will get worse whether we do or not under the most right wing Government of my lifetime imo

It’s too early for this, but Labour could have overcome Corbyn unpopularity.

MattW

NickPalmer said:

Had 7 hours on the doorsteps today, 6 yesterday. More anecdata:

* It's not as clear-cut class-wise as it seems to be in some places. WWC Labour voters in the north of the constituency (Kimberley and nearby) seem to be drifting back - one said wryly "I always say I'm not going to vote for you again but in the end I do, I don't know why". Conversely the middle-class intellectual vote that was the backbone of my support is weaker these days - quite a lot of dislike for perceived populism by both main parties, and some planning to abstain.

* There is plenty of Lib-Lab tactical voting, though. Anna Soubry will only just hold her deposit, I think, and with LibDems not standing the anti-Soubry LD vote is up for grabs (though it was already squeezed last time).

* Continued huge waves of Labour helpers (mostly sparky students from Nottingham) - roughly 50 canvassers*2 areas*3 shifts*2+ hours=600+ person-hours a day. Most homes have been canvassed in the last few weeks, and in strong areas there have been up to six canvasses to fill the gaps.

* The Conservative candidate apparently suggested that people use food banks because they are bad at budgeting, and they should take out payday loans: https://twitter.com/broxtowelabour/status/1203318135123849216 - the comments are being widely circulated in Broxtowe and I met several voters who were switching from Con because of them.

Still Con favourite, but the Labour machine here is quite astonishing - I've not seen anything like it in 50 years. That said, I've heard second hand that the outlook in Bassetlaw is grim for Labour, and only the 3-way split is making Ashfield hard to call.

Thanks Nick.

The Tories seem to be helping you in Ashfield :-) .

bigjohnowls

TheScreamingEagles said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/Brikka43/status/1203762854505123843

The former MP might be staying up for this.

IT IS A SPOOF ACCOUNT.

dr_spyn fell for spyn!!

Benpointer

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/Brikka43/status/1203762854505123843

The former MP might be staying up for this.

Seriously? That was 80% Labour at the last GE!

Edit: No - not seriously.
(Thanks @TheScreamingEagles)

noisywinter

nunu2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Current Polling Compared to This Time in the 2017 Campaign:

CON: 42.8% (-0.5)
LAB: 32.9% (-3.8)
LDM: 12.4% (+4.6)
BXP: 3.1% (-1.2)*
GRN: 2.6% (+0.7)

*Changes w/ UKIP vote share. https://t.co/4ceR0aUs2m

A net 3.5% better for tories than last time =6.5% tory lead. Hmmmm. Too close for comfort.

That would be assuming the Tory overstatement from last time is repeated....and the pollsters have adjusted their methodologies apparently to try and account for that