It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem Hastings and Rye: Likely Con Chipping Barnet: Tossup Norwich North: Likely Con Hendon: Lean Con MK South: Likely Con MK North: Lean Con Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con Putney: Lean Con Harrow East: Likely Con Watford: Likely Con Crawley: Likely Con Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con Reading West: Likely Con Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con Lewes: Lean Con Colchester: Safe Con St Albans: Likely Lib Dem Wimbledon: Likely Con Guildford: Lean Con Winchester: Lean Con South Cambs: Lean Con Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
I’m guessing she was referring to what Lord Freud said about many mentally disabled people been priced out of the job market because the minimum wage is far greater than the value they bring to their firm.
But, as we all know it’s far better to pretend otherwise and to have disabled people dependent on social services paid 24/7 support than go out to work.
Mrs BJ is a paraplegic and takes great offense at the comments.
Quite a lot of persistent rain currently forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon - of course this could change, although 3-5 day forecasts these days tend to be fairly accurate. Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
That must be bad for the marginals that the Tories are hoping to secure...in fact it could be more than bad....
I have no idea but the Sky News paper review thought exactly the opposite. They believed that with Labour relying so heavily on both young first time voters and GOTV, bad weather on polling day would hit Labour disproportionately badly.
I understand the basic logic but have no idea if it is correct.
Rain on turnout is often overplayed. But generally though what research shows is it’s more likely to have a slight effect on the C2DE demographic
Because postal votes tend to favour the Conservatives lower turnout on the day would help them . Also the timing of any rain could be important . Younger voters and those more likely to favour Labour are more likely to vote in the afternoon and evening , older people in the morning .
The reason behind this is pretty logical in that the Tories core voting group the over 65s won’t be working so tend to go in the morning .
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem Hastings and Rye: Likely Con Chipping Barnet: Tossup Norwich North: Likely Con Hendon: Lean Con MK South: Likely Con MK North: Lean Con Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con Putney: Lean Con Harrow East: Likely Con Watford: Likely Con Crawley: Likely Con Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con Reading West: Likely Con Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con Lewes: Lean Con Colchester: Safe Con St Albans: Likely Lib Dem Wimbledon: Likely Con Guildford: Lean Con Winchester: Lean Con South Cambs: Lean Con Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
I’m guessing she was referring to what Lord Freud said about many mentally disabled people been priced out of the job market because the minimum wage is far greater than the value they bring to their firm.
But, as we all know it’s far better to pretend otherwise and to have disabled people dependent on social services paid 24/7 support than go out to work.
Mrs BJ is a paraplegic and takes great offense at the comments.
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
Sacrifice the Union you say?
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
Sacrifice the Union you say?
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.
If you mentally subtract the red crosses and keep the black crosses, the black crosses (Boris) are predominantly in Leave Tory consituencies. If you mentally subtract the black crosses and keep the red crosses, the red crosses are more evenly distributed and are arguably more concentrated in Labour Remain areas.
Or have I misinterpreted this?
I'm having to squint at the scales but it looks like you may be right, which looks odd at first sight.
Possible theories:
1. A lot of Corbyn's appearances are in safe Labour Remain seats because they're full of Momentumites so he can hold big rallies there (makes him feel comfortable and enthuses his campaigning base; Labour has far more members than the Tories, and this helps to encourage them to volunteer to be deployed in places where Labour is actually interested in door knocking) 2. The remainder of Corbyn's appearances are disproportionately concentrated in the Tory/Leave quadrant because the Tories have far more Leave than Remain marginals. This likewise explains Johnson's distribution. Corbyn is attacking and Johnson is defending
Point 2 makes sense if the suggestions of differential swing are correct. If the Labour and Tory HQs are both convinced that a load of Labour Leave MPs are toast, then it might make more sense for Labour to try to mitigate the damage by targeting Tory-held marginals in areas where they feel they're doing slightly better, in the hope of picking some of them off?
If we assume both that the polls suggesting the Tories picking up a similar overall national share to last time are right, and that there is strong evidence of outperformance in the Labour Leave seats, then they might be going backwards a little in other parts of the country?
If the Tories are outperforming relative to the national picture in the North and underperforming in the South, whereas Labour's vote share is breaking in the opposite sense, then there could be more vulnerable Tory seats in the South than has been previously assumed. But this is pure speculation: apart from anything else, the diagram doesn't tell us where in the country the seats they've been visiting are.
Personally I'm sticking with the accumulation of evidence from the YouGov MRP, the 2017 results and my own reasoning, as posted a little earlier. I don't think that the threat to the Tories in the greater South-East, from either Labour or the Lib Dems, is that widespread at this election. There probably will be net Tory losses throughout the region but, taking into account the possibility of the odd gain here and there (Dagenham and Rainham, Croydon Central, Carshalton & Wallington, Ipswich, Eastbourne, North Norfolk, Peterborough and Bedford all immediately spring to mind as targets,) they ought to be in single figures.
I've been out of circulation for a few weeks due to family issues but am I right that this election is proving a real non event? Seems like the lowest key campaign since 2001 at least. Surprising in some ways given how uncertain the result is.
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
Sacrifice the Union you say?
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.
I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.
Gold Standard Survation now forecasting a Tory landslide, a 14% Tory lead would be the biggest since 1983, even bigger than Thatcher's 12% lead in 1987 when she won a majority over 100
Hmm. No danger of the lower polls seeing the avg. Lead drop then.
Tories should be comfortable of a decent majority, or a big one if labour do not outperform the polls a bit.
While I dont believe any party in this country is popular enough to get 45%, the Tories have good reason to think they can match last time, and labour therefore need a bigger polling error than last time.
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
Sacrifice the Union you say?
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
These people are also idiots. The UK is very much worth preserving. The EU. significantly less so. We are an island. They are the Austro-Hungarian Empire with added fiddly bits.
I see that like many of your ilk you've convinced yourself that NI doesn't exist.
As someone who was born there, NI doesn't really exist.
I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
Farage's last shot at claiming some glory is a Wednesday statement to tell voters in all seats bar a specified handful to vote Tory. Then take credit for the shit-storm that engulfs Labour.
And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.
Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....
It's close enough to 43/33/13 to conform to that general pattern. I shall believe talk of a possible swingback to the Tories only if there's a lot more evidence to corroborate it.
If 45% of the population do vote Tory, most of the graveyards in the North are going to be spinning so much we could probably attach turbines and power the national grid.
I've been out of circulation for a few weeks due to family issues but am I right that this election is proving a real non event? Seems like the lowest key campaign since 2001 at least. Surprising in some ways given how uncertain the result is.
Weird how this poll feels more significant than all others. Why?
Partly: confirmation bias, for sure. All non-racist, non-Jew-haters want to see Labour thoroughly defeated and disgraced. That is the righteous position. We are all in danger of seeing what we want to see.
BUT, also, this feels like it captures a genuine mood shift. BMG also showed a significant slide against Racist Labour. This kinda cements it. Who wants to vote for C*nts? And, not only that, Loser Marxisr C*nts?
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
If 45% of the population do vote Tory, most of the graveyards in the North are going to be spinning so much we could probably attach turbines and power the national grid.
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem Hastings and Rye: Likely Con Chipping Barnet: Tossup Norwich North: Likely Con Hendon: Lean Con MK South: Likely Con MK North: Lean Con Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con Putney: Lean Con Harrow East: Likely Con Watford: Likely Con Crawley: Likely Con Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con Reading West: Likely Con Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con Lewes: Lean Con Colchester: Safe Con St Albans: Likely Lib Dem Wimbledon: Likely Con Guildford: Lean Con Winchester: Lean Con South Cambs: Lean Con Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
Plus she's being investigated for anti-semitic comments, just saying.
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
Farage's last shot at claiming some glory is a Wednesday statement to tell voters in all seats bar a specified handful to vote Tory. Then take credit for the shit-storm that engulfs Labour.
And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.
Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....
46-29.
1935 general election repeat ? If landslide happens and I think the runes are showing its gonna happen, Corbyn finished, Farage seen off,Brexit done, Remain destroyed, saved from Marxism, a proper Tory majority ,what's not to like
Con ............ 367 Lab ............. 210 LibDems ....... 10 (2 Black Cabs) SNP ............... 41 Plaid Cymru .... 3 Brexit .............. 0 Greens ............ 1 N.I ................. 18
Total ........... 650 Con Maj. ....... 84
It is a swing of 6% from Labour to Tory which on UNS would see the Tories gain 58 Labour seats taking Labour actually down to just 204 seats and assuming 6 losses to the SNP under 200 to 198.
That would be the lowest result for Labour in terms of MPs returned since 1935, even lower than Foot's 209 in 1983
The big one now is YouGov MRP. I presume we are going to see something like a 10% lead, but it will be interesting to see the majority. Is it that Labour are piling up votes in safe seats or not.
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
Keir Starmer and Tony Blair
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader, with some support from both Momentum and the centre.
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
Keir Starmer and Tony Blair
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.
He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of Watford
I don't believe the Tories are going to get 45%, but I can believe Commie Corbyn getting 31%.
Farage's last shot at claiming some glory is a Wednesday statement to tell voters in all seats bar a specified handful to vote Tory. Then take credit for the shit-storm that engulfs Labour.
And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.
Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....
46-29.
1935 general election repeat ? If landslide happens and I think the runes are showing its gonna happen, Corbyn finished, Farage seen off,Brexit done, Remain destroyed, saved from Marxism, a proper Tory majority ,what's not to like
That would be a hell of a list achievements for Boris.
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
PB Tories
They will blame the electorate for not understanding the manifesto & Labour candidates for not explaining it properly.
Last thought - Corbyn can explain away a loss if it's not too big. Divided party, country wanted brexit too much, etc. But if there is a big win for the tories he and his circle cannot hide. The weaknesses, the problems with Boris and co are well known and largely true. That he might win despite that would nor surprise, but Corbyn could not pretend not to be a major problem if it's a big win.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
An utter pounding has to result in labour moving back to the middle. There will be a lot of angry momentumites out there. Who will they blame? Blairites? Media? Billionaires? Trump? Israel ?
Keir Starmer and Tony Blair
Keir Starmer would very likely become leader.
He wouldn't, the cult will decide Labour was not leftwing enough because of the likes of Starmer and too concerned with stopping Brexit rather than pushing for socialism, hence the big Labour losses north of Watford
You do need to all extract yourselves from the excited echo chamber on here, sometimes. He's probably the only candidate acceptable to both wings, with Miliband.
Comments
Agree, I think the Lib Dems will under perform with 15 - 20 seats.
Because postal votes tend to favour the Conservatives lower turnout on the day would help them . Also the timing of any rain could be important . Younger voters and those more likely to favour Labour are more likely to vote in the afternoon and evening , older people in the morning .
The reason behind this is pretty logical in that the Tories core voting group the over 65s won’t be working so tend to go in the morning .
Again?! Hmm...
C'mon
Possible theories:
1. A lot of Corbyn's appearances are in safe Labour Remain seats because they're full of Momentumites so he can hold big rallies there (makes him feel comfortable and enthuses his campaigning base; Labour has far more members than the Tories, and this helps to encourage them to volunteer to be deployed in places where Labour is actually interested in door knocking)
2. The remainder of Corbyn's appearances are disproportionately concentrated in the Tory/Leave quadrant because the Tories have far more Leave than Remain marginals. This likewise explains Johnson's distribution. Corbyn is attacking and Johnson is defending
Point 2 makes sense if the suggestions of differential swing are correct. If the Labour and Tory HQs are both convinced that a load of Labour Leave MPs are toast, then it might make more sense for Labour to try to mitigate the damage by targeting Tory-held marginals in areas where they feel they're doing slightly better, in the hope of picking some of them off?
If we assume both that the polls suggesting the Tories picking up a similar overall national share to last time are right, and that there is strong evidence of outperformance in the Labour Leave seats, then they might be going backwards a little in other parts of the country?
If the Tories are outperforming relative to the national picture in the North and underperforming in the South, whereas Labour's vote share is breaking in the opposite sense, then there could be more vulnerable Tory seats in the South than has been previously assumed. But this is pure speculation: apart from anything else, the diagram doesn't tell us where in the country the seats they've been visiting are.
Personally I'm sticking with the accumulation of evidence from the YouGov MRP, the 2017 results and my own reasoning, as posted a little earlier. I don't think that the threat to the Tories in the greater South-East, from either Labour or the Lib Dems, is that widespread at this election. There probably will be net Tory losses throughout the region but, taking into account the possibility of the odd gain here and there (Dagenham and Rainham, Croydon Central, Carshalton & Wallington, Ipswich, Eastbourne, North Norfolk, Peterborough and Bedford all immediately spring to mind as targets,) they ought to be in single figures.
https://twitter.com/Survation?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1203826821361471500?s=20
GAME OVER
Shit."
Landslide incoming!
A swingback at the end, just like in 2017, but from very different start positions.
Fuck. Boris is gonna get a BIG majority
ie Con were 42 in last Survation.
So, eg, gone from 42.3 to 44.7 - ie up 2 rounded.
Tories should be comfortable of a decent majority, or a big one if labour do not outperform the polls a bit.
While I dont believe any party in this country is popular enough to get 45%, the Tories have good reason to think they can match last time, and labour therefore need a bigger polling error than last time.
Good night.
Quick get a load of Maomentumers on the media ASAP, telling the world its all within MoE...that will get Flat Cap Fred done the polling station.
Con 43.0% (+0.4)
Lab 32.9% (nc)
LD 12.5% (-0.6)
Brex 3.1% (-0.4)
Sample, 1012.
Tonight just 3 days before the 2019 general election GMB Survation has a 14% Tory lead, that is landslide territory folks!
https://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Final-GMB-GE2017-V-Tables-020617TOCH-1c1d0h3-microage.pdf
And shit weather melting the under-25 snowflakes.
Along with the Tories REALLY getting their shit together on social media for the next 72 hours, that Red Wall is gonna crack.....
46-29.
Still time for the CORBYNISTA swing!
Ta. Probably best to treat this as just confirmation of 10%ish then, and a comfortable majority.
Nothing magical about Survation, just as there's nothing magical about YouGov's MRPs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQl5KYiiFDI
Partly: confirmation bias, for sure. All non-racist, non-Jew-haters want to see Labour thoroughly defeated and disgraced. That is the righteous position. We are all in danger of seeing what we want to see.
BUT, also, this feels like it captures a genuine mood shift. BMG also showed a significant slide against Racist Labour. This kinda cements it. Who wants to vote for C*nts? And, not only that, Loser Marxisr C*nts?
Die, Corbyn's Labour, Die.
Time for some last minute heroics labour. And for traditional labour to get super spooked and motivated. Do enough fear Boris enough to cut the lead at this stage?
https://twitter.com/arcpolitics98/status/1203829232939491329
Still obviously a great poll for the Tories
Con ............ 367
Lab ............. 210
LibDems ....... 10 (2 Black Cabs)
SNP ............... 41
Plaid Cymru .... 3
Brexit .............. 0
Greens ............ 1
N.I ................. 18
Total ........... 650
Con Maj. ....... 84
Updated chart - https://imgur.com/xYPdORP
That would be the lowest result for Labour in terms of MPs returned since 1935, even lower than Foot's 209 in 1983
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
And Boris could say...Corbyn would bankrupt Britain and cause economic chaos...and it would resonate
2017 - gap 35%
2019 - gap 34%
swing 0.5%
And after Andrew Neil went viral.
And it can’t be put down to unusually low turnout in younger people . 19% of women are still undecided , Labour just edge the Tories in that group .
The Tories have a huge lead in men and Labour are being trounced in the over 55s .
Labours last ditch message in those Midlands and Northern seats really needs to be now would you trust the Tories with a huge majority.
Also, unlike 2017, the media narrative hasn't been landslide for day after day, it has been much more about how close it is.
He can retire next Christmas. Job done.
They will blame the electorate for not understanding the manifesto & Labour candidates for not explaining it properly.