Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
Yes it is worth reading, particularly the section on uncertainty.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
What do you think is the fundamental problem with the YouGov model?
Insufficiently able to capture seat-specific factors.
Are there many of those? I thought they did well with seats such as East Devon.
They have a sample of 100 or so in each seat, which is enough to detect an Indy like Wright doing well - but with a huge margin of error. Demographics won't help much in refining what is essentially a stab in the dark.
What is mysterious about the YG model is how they reconcile (or balance) the two inputs - the seat poll and the national demographic model. Especially where they conflict
Isn't that the whole point of MRP, to combine many of these small samples together with a demographic model of the country/region?
According The BBC Priti P is 'giving more details of the projected immigration scheme. Apparently 'there would be fast-tack entry to the UK for entrepreneurs and some people working for the NHS, and sector-specific schemes for low or unskilled workers to meet labour market shortages.' Does that include care workers, I wonder.
Wonder how you demonstrate that you are an "entrepreneur"?
Wear braces at the interview?
Bring a mid-six figure investment in a new business.
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
Hard to see how, Labour are completely invisible in this election. I have had only one party knock my door , SNP. Conservatives invisible as well in what is the most expensive area in the town and only place they are likely to get support.
You've probably told the Tories to bugger off so many times you've been added to a black list.
Never had a Tory darken my doorstep, they appear to be rarer than hens teeth.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Are you going to cite any evidence for your claims?
Just follow the links to posts on PB, you shall find tons of evidence. Unless you don't want to see the bleeding obvious Austerity ? Evidence? Well Tories coined it Leave labour? A variable, no one knows about but Tories hope to take them to 350 LD to pick up more seats, not from Labour, in the South/ remaina Tactical voting, is not a new idea, been there since 2017
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Do you include the Midlands in "Labour's Northern fort"? Voters are less tribal in the Midlands compared to the North and therefore the Tories could pick up more seats there.
p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
I've been doing a lot in Wimbledon and based on what I've seen and heard, I'd have it as a near certain Conservative hold. Fully admit that it's not based on empirical data though.
Just to add to my earlier post about the fundamentals I'd say there is a small but not statistically insignificant chance of something truly astonishing happening and labour completely imploding on thursday to the low 100s in seats (130 to 140). Some of the anecdata seems apocalyptic for them and the Brexit pull is huge in that it's almost exclusively going Tory.
Although I wouldn't go that far, I do think there's a strange situation whereby a slightly larger lead in national polling would be the difference between a tiny Tory majority or possibly even hung parliament with a little help from the LDs and tactical voting, and Labour starting to haemorrhage seats across the north. 6-7 points the Tories probably gain a lot of votes without huge numbers of seats, and likely lose a few where they're on the defensive. 10 points (which obviously will be a higher lead in seats the Tories are doing well in rather than London) and we start to get the kind of carnage where few Labour MPs or candidates outside London, Liverpool, and Manchester are truly safe.</blockquote
Sunderland Central 4/1 for Tories. Poor value but shows lack of confidence even in these seats.
p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
I've been doing a lot in Wimbledon and based on what I've seen and heard, I'd have it as a near certain Conservative hold. Fully admit that it's not based on empirical data though.
Harlow and Thurrock and Sutton are now near certain Tory holds, Wimbledon is not
Priti Patel, talks about a points based immigration system. No one talks about INVESTING in the local population and training them to do these jobs. Instead of advertising and fast tracking in Pakistan or Nigeria. Or raising wages, to make some jobs, such as care workers, more appealing with some career progression. UK needs skilled employment but it also needs people to do back breaking jobs on minimum wage. Such as production operatives and fruit picking. The big industries, many who have contributed in billions into the Tories fund, won't be happy with staff shortages or paying staff more. It cuts into their profits and affects shareholder. So besides this 'points based' immigration, there will be low skilled immigration also. Eventually making Brexit a 'pointless' excercise. Except, it allowed the Torie to stay in power for 10-15 years, despite savage austerity. Even Houdini couldn't have diverted attention with such skill
My experience of PB is that if you spout a load of contentious bullshit, you tend to be called out on it...
gave me a good laugh
whilst chewing on the turnips Malc?
No need for chewing , Boiled in salted water and then mashed and sprinkled with black pepper. preferably alongside haggis and mashed tatties, roll on Burns Night.
You boil your political opponents and eat them? Wow... and we all thought the Tories were bad for eating babies.
Morning all. Catching up with events and am interesting discussion earlier about centralism. I think it grows this time out of this election, following the first false steps of TIG and the independents.
Johnson is going to remain Prime Minister - I don't know what the size of his majority/minority will be but the Tories will win. Which like the Troublesome Trucks did to Thomas will push Johnson ON ON ON regardless of whether he thinks it a good idea. The Tory party of old left behind.
Corbyn may well be resigned in Friday with the Stalinists quickly moving to secure the succession. After this final victory against the Blairites the project will continue, with RLB or Burgon running the show until the party is bankrupted following the EHRC ruling. The Momentum Party which survives the mass suing of Labour leaves the party of old behind.
Which leaves a vast space in the centre, encompassing the John Major and Tony Blair parties of old. Whether or not this is called the LibDems or several parties or something else I don't know. I do know that the Labour Party I joined 25 years ago has gone forever. As has the Tory party of Major and Hesletine.
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.
What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
There is a market for centrism - once Brexit happens.
The LD revoke policy is as extreme as Corbyn’s manifesto, to the 17.4m who voted to leave the EU.
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.
What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
There is a market for centrism - once Brexit happens.
The LD revoke policy is as extreme as Corbyn’s manifesto, to the 17.4m who voted to leave the EU.
Revoke is easy to explain but removed 52% of voters from their target group before you begun..
Indeed. If you ignore the elephant, the LD manifesto was genuinely attractive to me, preaching sound money and libertarian attitudes. But I’m never going to vote for a party who will try and overturn a referendum result before it was implemented.
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.
What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
There is a market for centrism - once Brexit happens.
The LD revoke policy is as extreme as Corbyn’s manifesto, to the 17.4m who voted to leave the EU.
Complete utter nonsense.
It was so extreme they had to drop it mid-campaign!
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Yes, a Tory party reliant on that vote will be an interesting beast indeed, but we do need a word of warning. All these tales of WWC voters hating Corbyn, of desiring Brexit over all things and despising the student union luvvies of the Labour party were all the stuff of PB threads a few days before GE 2017 too. Some of my most successful constituency bets last time were on Labour in WWC Northern Red seats "nailed on" for Con gains.
The key thing is what WWC voters in places like Workington, Hartlepool, Stoke and Sunderland do at the next general election when they realise that Brexit and Johnson were a mirage and that things haven't improved for them or their areas and indeed might even have got worse
May be by 2024 the Tories will find another topic, to whip up passions and divide society? May be a war, on some remote outpost? Who knows
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Yes, a Tory party reliant on that vote will be an interesting beast indeed, but we do need a word of warning. All these tales of WWC voters hating Corbyn, of desiring Brexit over all things and despising the student union luvvies of the Labour party were all the stuff of PB threads a few days before GE 2017 too. Some of my most successful constituency bets last time were on Labour in WWC Northern Red seats "nailed on" for Con gains.
The key thing is what WWC voters in places like Workington, Hartlepool, Stoke and Sunderland do at the next general election when they realise that Brexit and Johnson were a mirage and that things haven't improved for them or their areas and indeed might even have got worse
Given Labour failed to win even in 2017 when all the above voted Labour (bar Stoke South) it is current Tory held marginals Labour need to win, the above just give the Tories a majority rather than simply being largest party
Hitchens said the same of Thomas Mair (insane, not politically motivated) to all round scorn from Remain inclined voters. Will they demand too that he categorises Islamic terror as based on deep held (in this case, religious) views?
"PETER HITCHENS: Terror is stalking our streets but it has NOTHING to do with ISIS
"A crazy man kills innocent people and within minutes everyone, from Scotland Yard to the BBC, is saying it is Islamist terror. But is this true?"
Priti Patel, talks about a points based immigration system. No one talks about INVESTING in the local population and training them to do these jobs. Instead of advertising and fast tracking in Pakistan or Nigeria. Or raising wages, to make some jobs, such as care workers, more appealing with some career progression. UK needs skilled employment but it also needs people to do back breaking jobs on minimum wage. Such as production operatives and fruit picking. The big industries, many who have contributed in billions into the Tories fund, won't be happy with staff shortages or paying staff more. It cuts into their profits and affects shareholder. So besides this 'points based' immigration, there will be low skilled immigration also. Eventually making Brexit a 'pointless' excercise. Except, it allowed the Torie to stay in power for 10-15 years, despite savage austerity. Even Houdini couldn't have diverted attention with such skill
This election in a nutshell. Boris bumbling and joking about cycling on the pavement and asking his team for naughty things theyve seen him do and Sophy Ridge grinning all over her face and loving every minute of it. Hes got it, he knows how to play everyone and it is infectious. That's the unstoppable force grumpy grandpa will get run over by.
He completely disarmed her, actually for the second time
He is live on Politics Scotland from Portree. It would be funny if he is in trouble. In 2017 the SCons came from nowhere to be 2nd ahead of the SLibs only 2 years after Charles Kennedy lost the seat.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
My impression entirely. I hate overly quantitative approaches to predicting outcomes in highly complex, uncertain systems. They lend unwarranted (and in my field dangerous) certainty, even when they don't intend to and come with loads of caveats.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Do you include the Midlands in "Labour's Northern fort"? Voters are less tribal in the Midlands compared to the North and therefore the Tories could pick up more seats there.
Yes , Midlands seems different. Yet many of seats which Tories think they have gained, are on a razors edge. I would wait till the 13th, before anything is called.
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
Hard to see how, Labour are completely invisible in this election. I have had only one party knock my door , SNP. Conservatives invisible as well in what is the most expensive area in the town and only place they are likely to get support.
Given you are a staunch Nat I expect the Tories and Labour know well from canvass date to give you a miss
Using that logic , why would SNP need to knock my door. Lacklustre opposition parties around here, they know SNP have North Ayrshire and Arran sown up.
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
Hard to see how, Labour are completely invisible in this election. I have had only one party knock my door , SNP. Conservatives invisible as well in what is the most expensive area in the town and only place they are likely to get support.
You've probably told the Tories to bugger off so many times you've been added to a black list.
Never had a Tory darken my doorstep, they appear to be rarer than hens teeth.
My experience of PB is that if you spout a load of contentious bullshit, you tend to be called out on it...
gave me a good laugh
whilst chewing on the turnips Malc?
No need for chewing , Boiled in salted water and then mashed and sprinkled with black pepper. preferably alongside haggis and mashed tatties, roll on Burns Night.
I mash them in with carrots which I find makes the combination more flavourful
But you’ll probably call me a Southern Jessie for admitting that 😉
Not at all Charles, a pleasant combination. Sweet potato is also a good mix. I am a bit of a traditionalist but happy to have alternatives , except when with haggis.
An interesting and probably very perceptive comment from a Bruce Everiss on Guido. This is the social media end game in this election - and the Tories are winning it hands down.
"The Conservatives have done a 180 degree turn with their marketing under Boris. It is night and day.
With May the marketing was staid, old fashioned, boring, unimaginative and, like everything else she touched, utterly useless. It was so bad that it probably did more harm than good.
Under Boris the marketing is fresh, exciting, imaginative, edgy, fun. He has some very good people working on this. Reaching exactly the right voters with exactly the right message at exactly the right time. Delivered with a compulsive joy. An object lesson in how to do it. This will go into marketing textbooks."
I haven't seen any of it.. but then I don't use twitter nor facebook in any capacity that could find me noticing it.
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Well said. Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
47% in favour of independence. 39% voting SNP. So 8% want an independent Scotland run by who?
Jo Swinson?
Jo Swinson might not become PM but given Ruth Davidson has stepped down she might now be the best Unionist candidate to beat Nicola Sturgeon and replace her as First Minister in 2021
Cuckoo, your brains are addled. Your total ignorance of all things Scottish is breathtaking. Have you ever travelled further north than the M25.
Are you incapable of doing anything other than being rude and insulting people!
The authors acknowledge one which is the large margin of uncertainty, particularly for individual constituencies. There is a heroic assumption that it will all even out for the national picture (central limit theorem) but there may be systemic uncertainty. Some punters see the MRP as an infallible oracle. The authors don't.
The other problem is the treatment of tactical voting. Unless I missed it, the authors don't discuss this at all, and it is important. Baxter (electoral calculus) changed the methodology to include tactical voting and it had a dramatic impact on the predictions.
I await the MRP projections with great interest but it is not the same as an exit poll. I suspect there is money to be made by betting against it as there will be so many enthusiasts using it as the basis for their punts that it will distort the odds.
Uncertainty doesn't seem to be a problem with the model, perhaps more how it is communicated? As for tactical voting, you don't think that was in play last time?
YouGov's MRP comes with an impeccable pedigree.
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of University College London in conjunction with Jack Blumenau (University College London), YouGov’s UK political team, and YouGov's Data Science team headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its analytic database, Crunch. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations." (YouGov website)
Make no mistake, this is a serious statistical project with an impressive array of statisticians and political scientists. Stan & Hamiltonian MCMC are cutting edge techniques that have only become available in the last decade.
Andrew Gelman is as famous as it is possible to be in the field of statistics.
Against this, we have a bloke on the internet (Barnesian).
The greatest difficulty in analysing data is that you are the easiest person to fool. This is especially the case in elections, in which you may have a huge emotional investment in the outcome.
A team of people -- and especially a team of professional statisticians who are mainly interested in algorithms to extract the best predictions -- seems to me absolutely the best way to circumvent this.
I have already stated that I am not voting, being equally disgusted with all the parties. But, I think Stodge called this election correctly right at the beginning -- the only thing open for debate is the size of the Tory majority. I expect YouGov's MRP will be pretty damn accurate.
Morning all. Catching up with events and am interesting discussion earlier about centralism. I think it grows this time out of this election, following the first false steps of TIG and the independents.
Johnson is going to remain Prime Minister - I don't know what the size of his majority/minority will be but the Tories will win. Which like the Troublesome Trucks did to Thomas will push Johnson ON ON ON regardless of whether he thinks it a good idea. The Tory party of old left behind.
Corbyn may well be resigned in Friday with the Stalinists quickly moving to secure the succession. After this final victory against the Blairites the project will continue, with RLB or Burgon running the show until the party is bankrupted following the EHRC ruling. The Momentum Party which survives the mass suing of Labour leaves the party of old behind.
Which leaves a vast space in the centre, encompassing the John Major and Tony Blair parties of old. Whether or not this is called the LibDems or several parties or something else I don't know. I do know that the Labour Party I joined 25 years ago has gone forever. As has the Tory party of Major and Hesletine.
I was sorry to learn that you felt the need to resign from the Labour Party.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Are you going to cite any evidence for your claims?
Just follow the links to posts on PB, you shall find tons of evidence. Unless you don't want to see the bleeding obvious Austerity ? Evidence? Well Tories coined it Leave labour? A variable, no one knows about but Tories hope to take them to 350 LD to pick up more seats, not from Labour, in the South/ remaina Tactical voting, is not a new idea, been there since 2017
Tactical voting only started in 2017?
Slip, accepted: ,I meant tactical voting probably contributed to labour crossing 40% in 2017. Despite nearly all polls to the contrary.
This election in a nutshell. Boris bumbling and joking about cycling on the pavement and asking his team for naughty things theyve seen him do and Sophy Ridge grinning all over her face and loving every minute of it. Hes got it, he knows how to play everyone and it is infectious. That's the unstoppable force grumpy grandpa will get run over by.
He completely disarmed her, actually for the second time
A master at work, poor Sophy was reduced to giggling and fangirling. Its actually a very dangerous trait but a bloody effective one
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
The Tories will still lose the poorest voters on Thursday which will be the only group Labpur will win.
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
Increasing public spending while cutting taxes in the absence of a North Sea oil bonanza is going to be a huge ask, especially if we end up with the Brexit that Johnson is currently proposing.
It won't if it keeps the economy groeimg and anyway Boris is not a fiscal conservative or that bothered about deficits but a Trump or Berlusconi style populist
Yep, Johnson is going to need a booming economy. That will be a challenge given his commitments to cutting immigration and putting up barriers to trade with our biggest export market at a time when the global economy is beginning to slow down. The Tories becoming the party of high deficits is an interesting proposition. I am not convinced it will happen in reality. We shall see.
Boris wants a points based immigration system not to end immigration and he wants a trade deal with the EU too
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
Yes it is worth reading, particularly the section on uncertainty.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
What do you think is the fundamental problem with the YouGov model?
Two problems.
The authors acknowledge one which is the large margin of uncertainty, particularly for individual constituencies. There is a heroic assumption that it will all even out for the national picture (central limit theorem) but there may be systemic uncertainty. Some punters see the MRP as an infallible oracle. The authors don't.
The other problem is the treatment of tactical voting. Unless I missed it, the authors don't discuss this at all, and it is important. Baxter (electoral calculus) changed the methodology to include tactical voting and it had a dramatic impact on the predictions.
I await the MRP projections with great interest but it is not the same as an exit poll. I suspect there is money to be made by betting against it as there will be so many enthusiasts using it as the basis for their punts that it will distort the odds.
Tactical voting is the dog without a bark. We hear about it every bloody election and there's next to no evidence its real besides in the most marginal and obvious cases, of which there's extremely few here. Labour won't get any tactical votes net extra this time because they got them all last time.
Just to add to my earlier post about the fundamentals I'd say there is a small but not statistically insignificant chance of something truly astonishing happening and labour completely imploding on thursday to the low 100s in seats (130 to 140). Some of the anecdata seems apocalyptic for them and the Brexit pull is huge in that it's almost exclusively going Tory.
Although I wouldn't go that far, I do think there's a strange situation whereby a slightly larger lead in national polling would be the difference between a tiny Tory majority or possibly even hung parliament with a little help from the LDs and tactical voting, and Labour starting to haemorrhage seats across the north. 6-7 points the Tories probably gain a lot of votes without huge numbers of seats, and likely lose a few where they're on the defensive. 10 points (which obviously will be a higher lead in seats the Tories are doing well in rather than London) and we start to get the kind of carnage where few Labour MPs or candidates outside London, Liverpool, and Manchester are truly safe.
I'm going to bet on Sunderland Central. I think the swing in the North East will be well above the national average.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Are you going to cite any evidence for your claims?
Just follow the links to posts on PB, you shall find tons of evidence. Unless you don't want to see the bleeding obvious Austerity ? Evidence? Well Tories coined it Leave labour? A variable, no one knows about but Tories hope to take them to 350 LD to pick up more seats, not from Labour, in the South/ remaina Tactical voting, is not a new idea, been there since 2017
Tactical voting only started in 2017?
Slip, accepted: ,I meant tactical voting probably contributed to labour crossing 40% in 2017. Despite nearly all polls to the contrary.
But some polls picked it up. Completely different picture this time.
Just to add to my earlier post about the fundamentals I'd say there is a small but not statistically insignificant chance of something truly astonishing happening and labour completely imploding on thursday to the low 100s in seats (130 to 140). Some of the anecdata seems apocalyptic for them and the Brexit pull is huge in that it's almost exclusively going Tory.
Although I wouldn't go that far, I do think there's a strange situation whereby a slightly larger lead in national polling would be the difference between a tiny Tory majority or possibly even hung parliament with a little help from the LDs and tactical voting, and Labour starting to haemorrhage seats across the north. 6-7 points the Tories probably gain a lot of votes without huge numbers of seats, and likely lose a few where they're on the defensive. 10 points (which obviously will be a higher lead in seats the Tories are doing well in rather than London) and we start to get the kind of carnage where few Labour MPs or candidates outside London, Liverpool, and Manchester are truly safe.
I'm going to bet on Sunderland Central. I think the swing in the North East will be well above the national average.
I think the Labour wall will hold in Sunderland. It wont be Labour voters switching en-masse, it will be previous UKIP and other far-right voters primarily.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
I think tactical voting against the Conservatives will be cancelled out by tactical voting against Labour. I think the Lib Dems will likely benefit from it in heavily Remain seats.
This election in a nutshell. Boris bumbling and joking about cycling on the pavement and asking his team for naughty things theyve seen him do and Sophy Ridge grinning all over her face and loving every minute of it. Hes got it, he knows how to play everyone and it is infectious. That's the unstoppable force grumpy grandpa will get run over by.
Morons are easily pleased, I just see an odious ungainly lying buffoon
Jess says no fun till mummy's leadership bid photoshoot on the 13th. Comrades first, claus second.
I’m sure you’d be saying that if she was a man.
No I wouldn't. I dont give a rats ass. Women and men are different and subject to different lines of attack/criticism. Women MPs who do photoshoots are actively encouraging those differences to be noticed and commented upon.
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Yes, a Tory party reliant on that vote will be an interesting beast indeed, but we do need a word of warning. All these tales of WWC voters hating Corbyn, of desiring Brexit over all things and despising the student union luvvies of the Labour party were all the stuff of PB threads a few days before GE 2017 too. Some of my most successful constituency bets last time were on Labour in WWC Northern Red seats "nailed on" for Con gains.
The key thing is what WWC voters in places like Workington, Hartlepool, Stoke and Sunderland do at the next general election when they realise that Brexit and Johnson were a mirage and that things haven't improved for them or their areas and indeed might even have got worse
May be by 2024 the Tories will find another topic, to whip up passions and divide society? May be a war, on some remote outpost? Who knows
Perhaps not the best suggestion, given New Labour's penchant for wars.
How many bloody wars did New Labour fight -- I lost count in the end.
My experience of PB is that if you spout a load of contentious bullshit, you tend to be called out on it...
gave me a good laugh
whilst chewing on the turnips Malc?
No need for chewing , Boiled in salted water and then mashed and sprinkled with black pepper. preferably alongside haggis and mashed tatties, roll on Burns Night.
The authors acknowledge one which is the large margin of uncertainty, particularly for individual constituencies. There is a heroic assumption that it will all even out for the national picture (central limit theorem) but there may be systemic uncertainty. Some punters see the MRP as an infallible oracle. The authors don't.
The other problem is the treatment of tactical voting. Unless I missed it, the authors don't discuss this at all, and it is important. Baxter (electoral calculus) changed the methodology to include tactical voting and it had a dramatic impact on the predictions.
I await the MRP projections with great interest but it is not the same as an exit poll. I suspect there is money to be made by betting against it as there will be so many enthusiasts using it as the basis for their punts that it will distort the odds.
Uncertainty doesn't seem to be a problem with the model, perhaps more how it is communicated? As for tactical voting, you don't think that was in play last time?
YouGov's MRP comes with an impeccable pedigree.
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of University College London in conjunction with Jack Blumenau (University College London), YouGov’s UK political team, and YouGov's Data Science team headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its analytic database, Crunch. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations." (YouGov website)
Make no mistake, this is a serious statistical project with an impressive array of statisticians and political scientists. Stan & Hamiltonian MCMC are cutting edge techniques that have only become available in the last decade.
Andrew Gelman is as famous as it is possible to be in the field of statistics.
Against this, we have a bloke on the internet (Barnesian).
The greatest difficulty in analysing data is that you are the easiest person to fool. This is especially the case in elections, in which you may have a huge emotional investment in the outcome.
A team of people -- and especially a team of professional statisticians who are mainly interested in algorithms to extract the best predictions -- seems to me absolutely the best way to circumvent this.
I have already stated that I am not voting, being equally disgusted with all the parties. But, I think Stodge called this election correctly right at the beginning -- the only thing open for debate is the size of the Tory majority. I expect YouGov's MRP will be pretty damn accurate.
Just curious, did You guv get Brexit right? Think they missed others as well
So overnight we get another Scottish poll and this one put the SCons above their 2017 vote share. I doubt few on here would have considered SNP 35% and SCon 30% a possible result 4 weeks ago.
Seats I will be watching on Thursday night/Friday morning
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Gordon Argyll Perth and N Perthshire Stirling Ayr North Ayrshire Fife NE Edinburgh West, South and SW Kirkcaldy East Dunbartonshire Lanark and Hamilton East East Renfewshire East Lothian Glasgow East, NE and South
Last time there was a huge churn in Scottish seats all going one way. This time I expect it to be 2 way with the SNP winning and losing seats and ending up close to but not above 40.
Fantasy list
You really are a halfwit. I didnt claim anywhere I would be watching them as potential SCon gains or holds. I will be watching these seats because potentially they are seats each of the 4 main parties in Scotland could win or lose. Now go and learn some manners you repulsive oaf!
Jess says no fun till mummy's leadership bid photoshoot on the 13th. Comrades first, claus second.
I’m sure you’d be saying that if she was a man.
No I wouldn't. I dont give a rats ass. Women and men are different and subject to different lines of attack/criticism. Women MPs who do photoshoots are actively encouraging those differences to be noticed and commented upon.
Jess says no fun till mummy's leadership bid photoshoot on the 13th. Comrades first, claus second.
Eldest Grandson's birthday is 19th Dec. For years his mother's rule was 'No Christmas Tree until after J's birthday'. Now he's married with a home of his own and the tree is, I think, already up! No children either, yet!
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Are you going to cite any evidence for your claims?
Just follow the links to posts on PB, you shall find tons of evidence. Unless you don't want to see the bleeding obvious Austerity ? Evidence? Well Tories coined it Leave labour? A variable, no one knows about but Tories hope to take them to 350 LD to pick up more seats, not from Labour, in the South/ remaina Tactical voting, is not a new idea, been there since 2017
Tactical voting only started in 2017?
Slip, accepted: ,I meant tactical voting probably contributed to labour crossing 40% in 2017. Despite nearly all polls to the contrary.
But some polls picked it up. Completely different picture this time.
Yes, but I think at the very last moment. If I'm not mistaken, around the same time in 2017, June 2nd onwards. So still 5 days to go!
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
The Tories will still lose the poorest voters on Thursday which will be the only group Labpur will win.
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
Increasing public spending while cutting taxes in the absence of a North Sea oil bonanza is going to be a huge ask, especially if we end up with the Brexit that Johnson is currently proposing.
It won't if it keeps the economy growing and anyway Boris is not a fiscal conservative or that bothered about deficits but a Trump or Berlusconi style populist.
If you look at western politics at the moment conservatives are generally doing best, the UK, the US, Italy, Australia etc where they are going populist
You say he is a Trump populist while MarqueeMark assuring us he's going to be a one nation liberal!
That's the problem. a bit like Brexit, anyone voting for Bozo really has no real idea what they are going to get. I could see him leaving without a trade deal, I could see him joining EFTA. Who knows? The only thing we can be reasonably sure of is that fiscal responsibility has flown out of the window.
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.
What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
There is a market for centrism - once Brexit happens.
The LD revoke policy is as extreme as Corbyn’s manifesto, to the 17.4m who voted to leave the EU.
Revoke is easy to explain but removed 52% of voters from their target group before you begun..
Indeed. If you ignore the elephant, the LD manifesto was genuinely attractive to me, preaching sound money and libertarian attitudes. But I’m never going to vote for a party who will try and overturn a referendum result before it was implemented.
They are no more libertarian than they are democratic. Pipsqueak stating she would never allow a democratic vote whether Scotland wanted it or not shows the mettle of these despots. They are a bunch of inadequate wannabes and will be the pygmy party for eons to come.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Are you going to cite any evidence for your claims?
Just follow the links to posts on PB, you shall find tons of evidence. Unless you don't want to see the bleeding obvious Austerity ? Evidence? Well Tories coined it Leave labour? A variable, no one knows about but Tories hope to take them to 350 LD to pick up more seats, not from Labour, in the South/ remaina Tactical voting, is not a new idea, been there since 2017
Tactical voting only started in 2017?
Slip, accepted: ,I meant tactical voting probably contributed to labour crossing 40% in 2017. Despite nearly all polls to the contrary.
But some polls picked it up. Completely different picture this time.
Yes, but I think at the very last moment. If I'm not mistaken, around the same time in 2017, June 2nd onwards. So still 5 days to go!
No, there had already been two polls (but with the same company) with a 1% lead for the Tories at this point.
Jess says no fun till mummy's leadership bid photoshoot on the 13th. Comrades first, claus second.
I’m sure you’d be saying that if she was a man.
If he'd put up a post saying his kids Christmas was cancelled until the 14th then sure why not?
Because its clearly a joke. The implication in @wooliedyed ’s comment was that she should focus on bringing up her children rather than her career.
I’m sure Boris Johnson has been involved in putting up Christmas trees for his kids...
And clearly I am taking to extreme the implications in her 'joke' with a non serious suggestion of what she is saying. I dont expect the photo shoot will be on the 13th, she will wait a bit until the world begs her and her made up stories to run
Why anyone ever thought the WTO was a workable framework for UK-EU trade in the 2020s and a period of global trade wars is quite bizarre. Hopefully we will hear less about it in during the FTA negotiations.
This election in a nutshell. Boris bumbling and joking about cycling on the pavement and asking his team for naughty things theyve seen him do and Sophy Ridge grinning all over her face and loving every minute of it. Hes got it, he knows how to play everyone and it is infectious. That's the unstoppable force grumpy grandpa will get run over by.
He completely disarmed her, actually for the second time
He left me reaching for the sick bucket he is neither charming or charismatic, just a self promoting duplicitous toff
Jess says no fun till mummy's leadership bid photoshoot on the 13th. Comrades first, claus second.
I’m sure you’d be saying that if she was a man.
No I wouldn't. I dont give a rats ass. Women and men are different and subject to different lines of attack/criticism. Women MPs who do photoshoots are actively encouraging those differences to be noticed and commented upon.
We all know that is nonsense.
Like just about everything you post, what nonsense
Jess says no fun till mummy's leadership bid photoshoot on the 13th. Comrades first, claus second.
I’m sure you’d be saying that if she was a man.
If he'd put up a post saying his kids Christmas was cancelled until the 14th then sure why not?
Because its clearly a joke. The implication in @wooliedyed ’s comment was that she should focus on bringing up her children rather than her career.
I’m sure Boris Johnson has been involved in putting up Christmas trees for his kids...
No I think wooliedyed was clearly joking too. He responded to a joke with a joke.
Boris Johnson isn't Tweeting about his kids. If he had sent out that Tweet I'm sure someone would have responded with a similar reply or much worse probably.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Are you going to cite any evidence for your claims?
Just follow the links to posts on PB, you shall find tons of evidence. Unless you don't want to see the bleeding obvious Austerity ? Evidence? Well Tories coined it Leave labour? A variable, no one knows about but Tories hope to take them to 350 LD to pick up more seats, not from Labour, in the South/ remaina Tactical voting, is not a new idea, been there since 2017
Tactical voting only started in 2017?
Slip, accepted: ,I meant tactical voting probably contributed to labour crossing 40% in 2017. Despite nearly all polls to the contrary.
But some polls picked it up. Completely different picture this time.
Yes, but I think at the very last moment. If I'm not mistaken, around the same time in 2017, June 2nd onwards. So still 5 days to go!
You obviously do not understand, or if you do, you are ignoring the fear of and loathing of Corbyn, I don't think there has ever been a more dangerous set of politicians leading Labour. McDonnell is as bad if not worse.
Jess says no fun till mummy's leadership bid photoshoot on the 13th. Comrades first, claus second.
Eldest Grandson's birthday is 19th Dec. For years his mother's rule was 'No Christmas Tree until after J's birthday'. Now he's married with a home of his own and the tree is, I think, already up! No children either, yet!
My two trees were up on the 23rd November. I'm single.
The only seat that BXP has the best chance is Hartlepool!!
Assume you mean Hartlepool is their best chance. Off the bare stats, I think Heywood and Middleton is a great bet for the Brexit Party at 22/1, but the MRP poll kind of put the kibosh on it.
UKIP came within 617 votes of taking the seat in a 2014 by Election (that they barely campaigned in) The Brexit Party won the seat at the Euros, getting 40% of the vote The candidate is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Lambert Former Labour leader of Rochdale Council
But I think the MRP probably overrides my perceived edge
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
The Tories will still lose the poorest voters on Thursday which will be the only group Labpur will win.
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
Increasing public spending while cutting taxes in the absence of a North Sea oil bonanza is going to be a huge ask, especially if we end up with the Brexit that Johnson is currently proposing.
It won't if it keeps the economy groeimg and anyway Boris is not a fiscal conservative or that bothered about deficits but a Trump or Berlusconi style populist
Yep, Johnson is going to need a booming economy. That will be a challenge given his commitments to cutting immigration and putting up barriers to trade with our biggest export market at a time when the global economy is beginning to slow down. The Tories becoming the party of high deficits is an interesting proposition. I am not convinced it will happen in reality. We shall see.
Boris wants a points based immigration system not to end immigration and he wants a trade deal with the EU too
I know. He plans to cut immigration substantially and to make it harder and more expensive than it is currently to trade with the EU.
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
Hard to see how, Labour are completely invisible in this election. I have had only one party knock my door , SNP. Conservatives invisible as well in what is the most expensive area in the town and only place they are likely to get support.
You've probably told the Tories to bugger off so many times you've been added to a black list.
Never had a Tory darken my doorstep, they appear to be rarer than hens teeth.
You should welcome the Tory canvassers, especially the little old ladies. Just watch their face drop as you explain that you could never vote to put a serial adulterer in No10.
Priti Patel, talks about a points based immigration system. No one talks about INVESTING in the local population and training them to do these jobs. Instead of advertising and fast tracking in Pakistan or Nigeria. Or raising wages, to make some jobs, such as care workers, more appealing with some career progression. UK needs skilled employment but it also needs people to do back breaking jobs on minimum wage. Such as production operatives and fruit picking. The big industries, many who have contributed in billions into the Tories fund, won't be happy with staff shortages or paying staff more. It cuts into their profits and affects shareholder. So besides this 'points based' immigration, there will be low skilled immigration also. Eventually making Brexit a 'pointless' excercise. Except, it allowed the Torie to stay in power for 10-15 years, despite savage austerity. Even Houdini couldn't have diverted attention with such skill
My experience of PB is that if you spout a load of contentious bullshit, you tend to be called out on it...
gave me a good laugh
whilst chewing on the turnips Malc?
No need for chewing , Boiled in salted water and then mashed and sprinkled with black pepper. preferably alongside haggis and mashed tatties, roll on Burns Night.
I mash them in with carrots which I find makes the combination more flavourful
But you’ll probably call me a Southern Jessie for admitting that 😉
Not at all Charles, a pleasant combination. Sweet potato is also a good mix. I am a bit of a traditionalist but happy to have alternatives , except when with haggis.
Carrot, nutmeg and butter. Makes them relatively palatable.
This election in a nutshell. Boris bumbling and joking about cycling on the pavement and asking his team for naughty things theyve seen him do and Sophy Ridge grinning all over her face and loving every minute of it. Hes got it, he knows how to play everyone and it is infectious. That's the unstoppable force grumpy grandpa will get run over by.
He completely disarmed her, actually for the second time
He left me reaching for the sick bucket he is neither charming or charismatic, just a self promoting duplicitous toff
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
How has it misled voters ?
Because there is not one single Con/Lab contest in the whole of Scotland.
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.
What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
There is a market for centrism - once Brexit happens.
The LD revoke policy is as extreme as Corbyn’s manifesto, to the 17.4m who voted to leave the EU.
Revoke is easy to explain but removed 52% of voters from their target group before you begun..
Indeed. If you ignore the elephant, the LD manifesto was genuinely attractive to me, preaching sound money and libertarian attitudes. But I’m never going to vote for a party who will try and overturn a referendum result before it was implemented.
They are no more libertarian than they are democratic. Pipsqueak stating she would never allow a democratic vote whether Scotland wanted it or not shows the mettle of these despots. They are a bunch of inadequate wannabes and will be the pygmy party for eons to come.
The last referendum should have been a twenty year decision. However leaving the EU is a big enough constitutional issue to warrant another. If they win a mandate then refusing one will breed resentment. My view is that the result will be a bigger win for remain.
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Well said. Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
47% in favour of independence. 39% voting SNP. So 8% want an independent Scotland run by who?
Jo Swinson?
Jo Swinson might not become PM but given Ruth Davidson has stepped down she might now be the best Unionist candidate to beat Nicola Sturgeon and replace her as First Minister in 2021
Cuckoo, your brains are addled. Your total ignorance of all things Scottish is breathtaking. Have you ever travelled further north than the M25.
Are you incapable of doing anything other than being rude and insulting people!
I am afraid it was neither rude or insulting. If you must print absolute balderdash that is so fantastical that it could only be imagined by someone with ZERO knowledge then you have to expect to be laughed at. Maybe you agree that Swinson will run for Holyrood in 2021 from her Bath stronghold and then in some fantasy lead her 3 MSP's and become FM, I certainly don't. Frozen is more believable.
Good news everyone! Whatever the result of this 2nd re-election we can be assured that the remaining 6 months of the 2015 parliament will be smooth until the election in May 2020. That we have had two re-elections because two replacement Tory PMs disliked the way people voted in the first one is absolute proof that people cannot change their minds and cannot be asked to vote again.
The authors acknowledge one which is the large margin of uncertainty, particularly for individual constituencies. There is a heroic assumption that it will all even out for the national picture (central limit theorem) but there may be systemic uncertainty. Some punters see the MRP as an infallible oracle. The authors don't.
The other problem is the treatment of tactical voting. Unless I missed it, the authors don't discuss this at all, and it is important. Baxter (electoral calculus) changed the methodology to include tactical voting and it had a dramatic impact on the predictions.
I await the MRP projections with great interest but it is not the same as an exit poll. I suspect there is money to be made by betting against it as there will be so many enthusiasts using it as the basis for their punts that it will distort the odds.
Uncertainty doesn't seem to be a problem with the model, perhaps more how it is communicated? As for tactical voting, you don't think that was in play last time?
I agree that the uncertainty issue is not a problem with the model but in the way many people focus on the single result.
I don't think tactical voting was in play a lot in 2017. In Richmond Park it virtually disappeared which is why the Tories won. The Labour vote here went from iirc 1,500 at the by-election to 5,700 at the general. The MRP model seems to ignore tactical voting (or assumes it is baked in in the 2017 shares).
p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
I've been doing a lot in Wimbledon and based on what I've seen and heard, I'd have it as a near certain Conservative hold. Fully admit that it's not based on empirical data though.
I live in Guildford, which should go to the LDs - but that is largely thanks to the most dysfunctional local Tory party. The word I hear is that Wimbledon is on a knife edge (and that is from Labour supporters there who are now tactically voting LD). But Gove is safe and I still expect Raab to hold on. Woking is interesting. All 3 parties in Woking are utterly corrupt with records of electoral fraud in council elections. Whoever wins (if it is close) some careful investigation would be the order of the day.
So overnight we get another Scottish poll and this one put the SCons above their 2017 vote share. I doubt few on here would have considered SNP 35% and SCon 30% a possible result 4 weeks ago.
Seats I will be watching on Thursday night/Friday morning
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Gordon Argyll Perth and N Perthshire Stirling Ayr North Ayrshire Fife NE Edinburgh West, South and SW Kirkcaldy East Dunbartonshire Lanark and Hamilton East East Renfewshire East Lothian Glasgow East, NE and South
Last time there was a huge churn in Scottish seats all going one way. This time I expect it to be 2 way with the SNP winning and losing seats and ending up close to but not above 40.
Fantasy list
You really are a halfwit. I didnt claim anywhere I would be watching them as potential SCon gains or holds. I will be watching these seats because potentially they are seats each of the 4 main parties in Scotland could win or lose. Now go and learn some manners you repulsive oaf!
Did you sit on a thistle, all that angst is not good for the blood pressure, chill out and stop taking things so seriously. It is only political banter , not life saving surgery. Have a laugh.
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
In Islington though they only tend to drink sparkling water or Chardonnay and Corbyn is teetotal
No self-respecting Northern WMC member would use Coors Light to wash the whippet!
It would be pretty good at removing the mud and the fleas from the whippet to be fair
Coors Light and the like would be regarded as the urine of another insect.
That was my logic - acidic enough to act as a stripper
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of University College London in conjunction with Jack Blumenau (University College London), YouGov’s UK political team, and YouGov's Data Science team headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its analytic database, Crunch. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations." (YouGov website)
Make no mistake, this is a serious statistical project with an impressive array of statisticians and political scientists. Stan & Hamiltonian MCMC are cutting edge techniques that have only become available in the last decade.
Andrew Gelman is as famous as it is possible to be in the field of statistics.
Against this, we have a bloke on the internet (Barnesian).
The greatest difficulty in analysing data is that you are the easiest person to fool. This is especially the case in elections, in which you may have a huge emotional investment in the outcome.
A team of people -- and especially a team of professional statisticians who are mainly interested in algorithms to extract the best predictions -- seems to me absolutely the best way to circumvent this.
I have already stated that I am not voting, being equally disgusted with all the parties. But, I think Stodge called this election correctly right at the beginning -- the only thing open for debate is the size of the Tory majority. I expect YouGov's MRP will be pretty damn accurate.
Massive, massive appeal to authority there. In addition, 1. Like Camelot, it's only a model. 2. Garbage in, garbage out. The foundation of any statistical endeavour is a truly random sample. YouGov work with self-selected panels. LOL. 3. Last time round, it was some bloke off the internet (D Herdson) popping in with an anecdote who gave us much the clearest steer about how things were going.
"Anecdotes bad, scientific studies good" is a principle which is overstated even in the context of medicine - we wouldn't have lithium, or the MAOIs (and therefore anti depressants generally) or viagra (except as an ineffectual angina treatment) if researchers hasn't paid attention to anecdotes. And the principle doesn't read across to polling well because polls are not proper objective data in the first place - you don't study cancer by asking the patient how he would expect to react to a course of chemotherapy.
God knows what is causing the enthusiasm for Jess "Stab Him in the Front" Philips.
She seems to me the latest in a long list of self-identified, self-promoting Messiahs for the centrists in Labour.
We have had: Eric Joyce (yes, there was a time when the two-fisted he-man was the subject of thoughtful pieces in the Guardian), Dan Jarvis (remember him, he was the future once), Owen Smith (the thickest man in Wales, a real achievement given the dross representing Wales in Westminster and Cardiff).
I'd say Angela Rayner was the best of the options currently available to Labour.
She seems authentic, a Northern Labour MP who lives in the constituency, and has a more than usually varied background. She is both pragmatic and on the left.
Priti Patel, talks about a points based immigration system. No one talks about INVESTING in the local population and training them to do these jobs. Instead of advertising and fast tracking in Pakistan or Nigeria. Or raising wages, to make some jobs, such as care workers, more appealing with some career progression. UK needs skilled employment but it also needs people to do back breaking jobs on minimum wage. Such as production operatives and fruit picking. The big industries, many who have contributed in billions into the Tories fund, won't be happy with staff shortages or paying staff more. It cuts into their profits and affects shareholder. So besides this 'points based' immigration, there will be low skilled immigration also. Eventually making Brexit a 'pointless' excercise. Except, it allowed the Torie to stay in power for 10-15 years, despite savage austerity. Even Houdini couldn't have diverted attention with such skill
The fact is that currently there are 120,000 vacancies in the social care sector and we are about to make it harder to recruit from a demographic which accounts for over 100,000 workers in the sector.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Are you going to cite any evidence for your claims?
Just follow the links to posts on PB, you shall find tons of evidence. Unless you don't want to see the bleeding obvious Austerity ? Evidence? Well Tories coined it Leave labour? A variable, no one knows about but Tories hope to take them to 350 LD to pick up more seats, not from Labour, in the South/ remaina Tactical voting, is not a new idea, been there since 2017
Tactical voting only started in 2017?
Slip, accepted: ,I meant tactical voting probably contributed to labour crossing 40% in 2017. Despite nearly all polls to the contrary.
But some polls picked it up. Completely different picture this time.
Yes, but I think at the very last moment. If I'm not mistaken, around the same time in 2017, June 2nd onwards. So still 5 days to go!
You obviously do not understand, or if you do, you are ignoring the fear of and loathing of Corbyn, I don't think there has ever been a more dangerous set of politicians leading Labour. McDonnell is as bad if not worse.
They are loathed.
One man's meat is another man's poision. The same team got 40% votes in 2017, even when you add a prominent Dianne Abott!! So 4 out of every ten voters voted Corbyn, knowing who he was!So much for 'loathing' A lot of Tories know that Bojo is a lying, manipulative clown. Doesn't stop them from voting Tory eh?
God knows what is causing the enthusiasm for Jess "Stab Him in the Front" Philips.
She seems to me the latest in a long list of self-identified, self-promoting Messiahs for the centrists in Labour.
We have had: Eric Joyce (yes, there was a time when the two-fisted he-man was the subject of thoughtful pieces in the Guardian), Dan Jarvis (remember him, he was the future once), Owen Smith (the thickest man in Wales, a real achievement given the dross representing Wales in Westminster and Cardiff).
I'd say Angela Rayner was the best of the options currently available to Labour.
The seems authentic, a Northern Labour MP who lives in the constituency, and has a more than usually varied background. She is both pragmatic and on the left.
She swears a lot in a Northern accent, which seems to lead posh people to think she is working class
Comments
https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/adult-social-care-workforce-data/Workforce-intelligence/publications/The-state-of-the-adult-social-care-sector-and-workforce-in-England.aspx
Johnson is going to remain Prime Minister - I don't know what the size of his majority/minority will be but the Tories will win. Which like the Troublesome Trucks did to Thomas will push Johnson ON ON ON regardless of whether he thinks it a good idea. The Tory party of old left behind.
Corbyn may well be resigned in Friday with the Stalinists quickly moving to secure the succession. After this final victory against the Blairites the project will continue, with RLB or Burgon running the show until the party is bankrupted following the EHRC ruling. The Momentum Party which survives the mass suing of Labour leaves the party of old behind.
Which leaves a vast space in the centre, encompassing the John Major and Tony Blair parties of old. Whether or not this is called the LibDems or several parties or something else I don't know. I do know that the Labour Party I joined 25 years ago has gone forever. As has the Tory party of Major and Hesletine.
May be a war, on some remote outpost? Who knows
"PETER HITCHENS: Terror is stalking our streets but it has NOTHING to do with ISIS
"A crazy man kills innocent people and within minutes everyone, from Scotland Yard to the BBC, is saying it is Islamist terror. But is this true?"
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/ "
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of University College London in conjunction with Jack Blumenau (University College London), YouGov’s UK political team, and YouGov's Data Science team headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its analytic database, Crunch. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations." (YouGov website)
Make no mistake, this is a serious statistical project with an impressive array of statisticians and political scientists. Stan & Hamiltonian MCMC are cutting edge techniques that have only become available in the last decade.
Andrew Gelman is as famous as it is possible to be in the field of statistics.
Against this, we have a bloke on the internet (Barnesian).
The greatest difficulty in analysing data is that you are the easiest person to fool. This is especially the case in elections, in which you may have a huge emotional investment in the outcome.
A team of people -- and especially a team of professional statisticians who are mainly interested in algorithms to extract the best predictions -- seems to me absolutely the best way to circumvent this.
I have already stated that I am not voting, being equally disgusted with all the parties. But, I think Stodge called this election correctly right at the beginning -- the only thing open for debate is the size of the Tory majority. I expect YouGov's MRP will be pretty damn accurate.
I think tactical voting against the Conservatives will be cancelled out by tactical voting against Labour. I think the Lib Dems will likely benefit from it in heavily Remain seats.
Tories will get 320+- 15. They can end up like 2010-305 or 2015-330
Aren't those the dogs that bite?
How many bloody wars did New Labour fight -- I lost count in the end.
I’m sure Boris Johnson has been involved in putting up Christmas trees for his kids...
Now he's married with a home of his own and the tree is, I think, already up! No children either, yet!
That's the problem. a bit like Brexit, anyone voting for Bozo really has no real idea what they are going to get. I could see him leaving without a trade deal, I could see him joining EFTA. Who knows? The only thing we can be reasonably sure of is that fiscal responsibility has flown out of the window.
Those who laughed at Gove when he dismissed experts are the very ones doing the dismissing of experts now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50681431
Why anyone ever thought the WTO was a workable framework for UK-EU trade in the 2020s and a period of global trade wars is quite bizarre. Hopefully we will hear less about it in during the FTA negotiations.
Or did you send poor people to fight on your behalf, while you mouthed cheap platitudes on pb.com
Boris Johnson isn't Tweeting about his kids. If he had sent out that Tweet I'm sure someone would have responded with a similar reply or much worse probably.
They are loathed.
UKIP came within 617 votes of taking the seat in a 2014 by Election (that they barely campaigned in)
The Brexit Party won the seat at the Euros, getting 40% of the vote
The candidate is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Lambert Former Labour leader of Rochdale Council
But I think the MRP probably overrides my perceived edge
Zero out of 59 constituencies.
Frozen is more believable.
It simply isn't democratic.
I don't think tactical voting was in play a lot in 2017. In Richmond Park it virtually disappeared which is why the Tories won. The Labour vote here went from iirc 1,500 at the by-election to 5,700 at the general. The MRP model seems to ignore tactical voting (or assumes it is baked in in the 2017 shares).
Someone with a dirtier mind than mine might construe a double entendre
https://youtu.be/W-KEuvd3S-Q
"Anecdotes bad, scientific studies good" is a principle which is overstated even in the context of medicine - we wouldn't have lithium, or the MAOIs (and therefore anti depressants generally) or viagra (except as an ineffectual angina treatment) if researchers hasn't paid attention to anecdotes. And the principle doesn't read across to polling well because polls are not proper objective data in the first place - you don't study cancer by asking the patient how he would expect to react to a course of chemotherapy.
She seems to me the latest in a long list of self-identified, self-promoting Messiahs for the centrists in Labour.
We have had: Eric Joyce (yes, there was a time when the two-fisted he-man was the subject of thoughtful pieces in the Guardian), Dan Jarvis (remember him, he was the future once), Owen Smith (the thickest man in Wales, a real achievement given the dross representing Wales in Westminster and Cardiff).
I'd say Angela Rayner was the best of the options currently available to Labour.
She seems authentic, a Northern Labour MP who lives in the constituency, and has a more than usually varied background. She is both pragmatic and on the left.
So 4 out of every ten voters voted Corbyn, knowing who he was!So much for 'loathing'
A lot of Tories know that Bojo is a lying, manipulative clown. Doesn't stop them from voting Tory eh?