Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?
It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side. Precisely none of the benefits Leavers were touting for Brexit have emerged. In the meantime, Britain’s economy has started underperforming comparable economies (with the equivalent of a severe recession coming thanks to the extreme form of Brexit that the government has adopted), the country has been ripped in two, constitutional norms have been shredded, the government has led a direct assault on democracy andNorthern Ireland has been tossed aside, and that’s just for starters. Yet Leavers still profess to imagine that it’s all going to be anything less than abysmal. That really is deranged.
You seem to be comparing the pursuit of brexit and the shady things the government has done to get it with shouty people on twitter losing it, which was the point. Its deranged to think there cannot both be a terrible government and that people like Adonis have lost it. Why act like a baby and pretend otherwise?
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
In Islington though they only tend to drink sparkling water or Chardonnay and Corbyn is teetotal
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are faced with that choice. Undoubtedly, some will still abstain on that choice by voting LibDem. Or not at all. But for the rest, it is stark. And from what I have been seeing in recent days, they are - reluctantly - going for Boris as the lesser of two weevils.
A final written warning to the Party by many of them. But they won't sack the Tories this time. Perhaps other canvassers out there can confirm this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Middle-class voters in the shire counties are still solidly behind the Conservatives. It's only in the big cities that the Tories are losing significant support with the middle-classes. For example if you take a county in the Midlands like say Shropshire, Derbyshire or Staffordshire, you'd find the majority of middle-class voters still solidly behind the Tories.
I believe you. It will still be a strange party composed of two very different tribes. A bit like the Labour party. They are both competing for the socially conservative left behinds.
According The BBC Priti P is 'giving more details of the projected immigration scheme. Apparently 'there would be fast-tack entry to the UK for entrepreneurs and some people working for the NHS, and sector-specific schemes for low or unskilled workers to meet labour market shortages.' Does that include care workers, I wonder.
Wonder how you demonstrate that you are an "entrepreneur"?
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
I think another point we need to consider here is churn. Where are the Liberal Democrats picking up votes? Evidence would suggest a fair old chunk of them are Tory Remainers. Yet the Tory vote appears roughly static. So, where are they getting votes to replace the ones they’re losing? The only logical explanation is, from Labour, who are the only party to have shed significant vote share.
It seems unlikely that they are picking up middle class students and graduates in London or Manchester. The policy offering is wrong and these are the groups most frequently totally fooled er, attracted by Corbyn.
But if that is true, that means Labour must be truly haemorrhaging votes in its traditional heartlands in the north, which tend to have quite small electorates. Again, such evidence as we have suggests Labour believe this is happening. If they are nervous about Easington and Ashton under Lyne all bets on what happens next are off.
Is this to say the Tories will advance in the north? No. For a start, many undecideds may still break for Labour in such places. But it does mean that the value is likely to be in seats that have been Labour for literally decades but voted Leave. Workington, Durham, Hemsworth etc. There could be some real shocks on election night in such areas.
At the same time, it makes the Tories task of taking city seats much harder. Labour to win Kensington and Canterbury, which should be done and dusted for the Tories on paper, might well be value.
Kensington looks like it'll go back to the Tories because of a split vote caused by the LD intervention of Sam Gyimah. Canterbury on the other hand is looking very good for Labour according to the YouGov MRP study.
Unless I'm mistaken the Tories brought in someone from Essex. Not usually a good idea to have someone from the wrong side of the river. In either county.
The moderates have a huge fight on their hands if they want to regain control of the party.
A really interesting thread TSE, thanks
I suspect you've been deliberately ambiguous on the party there. The moderates in both have lost so in terms of regaining I guess which has the most chance of doing so. The tory moderates would need Boris to win but to switch position completely, which is not impossible but hes so unreliable that's unlikely. The labour moderates dont exist any longer- making tough remarks on twitter then lining up with St Jeremy over and over shows that.
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
In Islington though they only tend to drink sparkling water or Chardonnay and Corbyn is teetotal
No self-respecting Northern WMC member would use Coors Light to wash the whippet!
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.
What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
There is a market for centrism - once Brexit happens.
The LD revoke policy is as extreme as Corbyn’s manifesto, to the 17.4m who voted to leave the EU.
Revoke is easy to explain but removed 52% of voters from their target group before you begun..
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
This only makes sense if you think Brexit =a lurch to the right, because nothing else he's doing is. There's an awful lot of throwing money around on the style of pre-Corbyn Labour going on.
Johnson is making a series of contradictory promises that cannot all be met so at some point the Tories will be forced into making some very tough choices. That is when we will find out what the reality of Brexit really is. It could be that the Tories decide to raise taxes across the board and go on a huge borrowing spree in order to deliver on promises to improve public services. Or it may turn out that they do not.
I think you're fairly accurate there - Johnson's manifesto only looks coherent when compared to the alternative.
I think we already know what sort of Brexit we're getting (assuming a Conservative majority) - a slightly half-arsed version that is probably better than nothing.
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Artists and all that jazz?
They may be preaching to the choir. This election may be their swansong.
" but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn" - I hardly think so ... something like 80%-90% of the performing arts vote anti-Tory anyway, so they are hardly going to receive any special treatment from Boris & Co.
I f anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.
I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
Here in Broxtowe, which voted 52% Leave, I'm not encountering that anger - it's all perfectly civilised, as it's always been ("I've always been Conservative, I'm afraid, I do apologise." said one elderly chap without irony). But I'm meeting the extremism. People will calmly, politely tell you that they would like to vote for a hard Brexit, or Revoke.
Centrism is a label. As a label for coherent policies, it's a very good label. But without the policies it's an empty vessel, and in the end something always beats nothing.
I went Corbynist after 2010 as I felt we'd run out of centrist ideas and needed a progressive reboot. I don't regret it, though I'd concede that the current programme could be seen as, um, no shark unjumped. In the end, practicalities constrain any govenment, and you choose the option which seems to you to have its heart broadly in the right place.
Doing the fooling is always so much easier if you are up against an opponent with even less credibility than yourself. In Jeremy Corbyn, Labour offers a candidate for Number 10 who has achieved the astonishing feat of being even less trusted with the premiership than the incumbent. If the Tories win this election, no account of their victory will be complete without analysing the critical role played in that outcome by their greatest collaborators, the Corbynite cadre who control the Labour party. After nearly a decade of often chaotic, frequently failing and bitterly divided Conservative government that has presided over an era of austerity, this ought to have been an election the principal party of opposition had confident hopes of winning. Yet Labour ends this campaign as it began: trailing the Tories. Its fantastical wishlists of promises are not believed and it has a candidate for Downing Street who plumbs depths of unpopularity never previously visited by any British opposition leader.
That just about sums it up. And you know what? Labour members will look at the results on Friday and convince themselves that their choice of leader had nothing to do with it - and, once again, they will choose someone else designed to repel exactly the kinds of voters need in order to win elections.
According The BBC Priti P is 'giving more details of the projected immigration scheme. Apparently 'there would be fast-tack entry to the UK for entrepreneurs and some people working for the NHS, and sector-specific schemes for low or unskilled workers to meet labour market shortages.' Does that include care workers, I wonder.
Wonder how you demonstrate that you are an "entrepreneur"?
The horror show for the LibDems will be next year's council elections, when their opponents show the difference between the 2019 Euros and the GE. "Libdems can't win here" everywhere. And they will have brought this upon themselves.
By the way, just on a general point about allegiances. Some on here strike me as very, very, partisan. To the point where they can't see when their own side is behaving badly, nor conversely when an 'opponent' makes a valid point.
But it also has another more sinister sub-text. There's this pervasive view that you have to bang a one-party drum, that you cannot be pragmatic and flexible.
I have never believed in life that any organisation has a monopoly on truth. Politicians especially. I affiliate LibDem in lots of ways but that doesn't mean I agree with them on everything. I think the decision to go straight to Revoke Article 50 was poor. Whilst I personally am passionate about remaining in the EU, this would be drastically undemocratic and it's pretty illiberal. I also do NOT like the local level shenanigans and the failure to cooperate with Labour moderates.
Nor do I admire all things Labour. I like some of their programme very much indeed, esp. nationalisation of railways and water. Other parts of their manifesto would probably bankrupt the country. And Corbyn's failure to deal with antisemitism in the party is appalling.
I also, for the record, clearly stated on here that I think Parliament should have voted through Theresa May's deal. It was, and still is, the best Brexit deal that has been presented.
Here and in USA people are becoming more intolerant of others and are of the view to fight to the death over every issue, even within parties. This has lead to the brexit impasse and also in USA the preventing of GW Bush, B Obama and now Trump, implementing policies that were voted for in elections (I think the policies of all three were bonkers). Maybe the data analysts have looked hard at this and have judged holding hard is of long term benefit for the party, but sure society is the loser.
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are m this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Middle-class voters in the shire counties are still solidly behind the Conservatives. It's only in the big cities that the Tories are losing significant support with the middle-classes. For example if you take a county in the Midlands like say Shropshire, Derbyshire or Staffordshire, you'd find the majority of middle-class voters still solidly behind the Tories.
I believe you. It will still be a strange party composed of two very different tribes. A bit like the Labour party. They are both competing for the socially conservative left behinds.
In 2016 Trump narrowly won rich voters over Hillary, won big with skilled working class and lower middle class voters and lost with the poorest voters who Hillary won.
I expect the Tories vote will look similar on Friday, losing some rich, upper middle class voters to the LDs but still winning them overall, winning big with movers on middle incomes and skilled working class voters and still losing the poorest voters to Labour.
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
In Islington though they only tend to drink sparkling water or Chardonnay and Corbyn is teetotal
Ha, ha - you've never been to Islington, have you HYUFD?
The horror show for the LibDems will be next year's council elections, when their opponents show the difference between the 2019 Euros and the GE. "Libdems can't win here" everywhere. And they will have brought this upon themselves.
I rather suspect next year's council elections are going to be quite good. Except for the Tories, of course.
Middle-class voters in the shire counties are still solidly behind the Conservatives. It's only in the big cities that the Tories are losing significant support with the middle-classes. For example if you take a county in the Midlands like say Shropshire, Derbyshire or Staffordshire, you'd find the majority of middle-class voters still solidly behind the Tories.
I don't agree. You don't get seats that are more leafy shires than Surrey SW, but the middle class vote is deeply divided now, mostly to the benefit of the LibDems - not enough to win there, but it'd be easy to see in Guildford next door.
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
I saw the photo on Nigel Farage’s Facebook page. It has 20,000 likes and 4,000 shares. I entirely agree with you though, CCHQ and the Tory press should be all over this. It’s entirely trivial in many ways yet also the photos speak volumes about how out of touch he is and how he is so unrepresentative of a lot of the old Labour values.
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are m this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Middle-class voters in the shire counties are still solidly behind the Conservatives. It's only in the big cities that the Tories are losing significant support with the middle-classes. For example if you take a county in the Midlands like say Shropshire, Derbyshire or Staffordshire, you'd find the majority of middle-class voters still solidly behind the Tories.
I believe you. It will still be a strange party composed of two very different tribes. A bit like the Labour party. They are both competing for the socially conservative left behinds.
In 2016 Trump narrowly won rich voters over Hillary, won big with skilled working class and lower middle class voters and lost with the poorest voters who Hillary won.
I expect the Tories vote will look similar on Friday, losing some rich, upper middle class voters to the LDs but still winning them overall, winning big with movers on middle incomes and skilled working class voters and still losing the poorest voters to Labour.
There will be one key difference. The Tories will win more votes overall than Labour.
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
In Islington though they only tend to drink sparkling water or Chardonnay and Corbyn is teetotal
Ha, ha - you've never been to Islington, have you HYUFD?
I have many times, I had a friend who used to live there
So overnight we get another Scottish poll and this one put the SCons above their 2017 vote share. I doubt few on here would have considered SNP 35% and SCon 30% a possible result 4 weeks ago.
Seats I will be watching on Thursday night/Friday morning
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Gordon Argyll Perth and N Perthshire Stirling Ayr North Ayrshire Fife NE Edinburgh West, South and SW Kirkcaldy East Dunbartonshire Lanark and Hamilton East East Renfewshire East Lothian Glasgow East, NE and South
Last time there was a huge churn in Scottish seats all going one way. This time I expect it to be 2 way with the SNP winning and losing seats and ending up close to but not above 40.
Middle-class voters in the shire counties are still solidly behind the Conservatives. It's only in the big cities that the Tories are losing significant support with the middle-classes. For example if you take a county in the Midlands like say Shropshire, Derbyshire or Staffordshire, you'd find the majority of middle-class voters still solidly behind the Tories.
I don't agree. You don't get seats that are more leafy shires than Surrey SW, but the middle class vote is deeply divided now, mostly to the benefit of the LibDems - not enough to win there, but it'd be easy to see in Guildford next door.
Surrey is more Remainy, it would be better to say the Tories are still winning Leave voting middle class voters but losing some Remain voting middle class voters to the LDs
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are m this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Middle-class voters in the shire counties are still ropshire, Derbyshire or Staffordshire, you'd find the majority of middle-class voters still solidly behind the Tories.
I believe you. It will cially conservative left behinds.
In 2016 Trump narrowly won rich voters over Hillary, won big with skilled working class and lower middle class voters and lost with the poorest voters who Hillary won.
I expect the Tories vote will look similar on Friday, losing some rich, upper middle class voters to the LDs but still winning them overall, winning big with movers on middle incomes and skilled working class voters and still losing the poorest voters to Labour.
There will be one key difference. The Tories will win more votes overall than Labour.
True but until California came in Trump was winning most votes overall too.
The difference is in the US the LDs and Labour would both be in the Democrats but the LDs would be Hillary or Warren Democrats and Corbyn Labour would be Sanders or AOC Democrats.
So overnight we get another Scottish poll and this one put the SCons above their 2017 vote share. I doubt few on here would have considered SNP 35% and SCon 30% a possible result 4 weeks ago.
Seats I will be watching on Thursday night/Friday morning
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Gordon Argyll Perth and N Perthshire Stirling Ayr North Ayrshire Fife NE Edinburgh West, South and SW Kirkcaldy East Dunbartonshire Lanark and Hamilton East East Renfewshire East Lothian Glasgow East, NE and South
Last time there was a huge churn in Scottish seats all going one way. This time I expect it to be 2 way with the SNP winning and losing seats and ending up close to but not above 40.
Ben Bradshaw will win Exeter. He's hugely popular including with middle classes.
Still think Claire Wright is in with a very good shout in Devon East against the helicoptered newbie from CCHQ.
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is tight.
Are you sure Camborne & Redruth is safe for the tories? Latest betting suggests they're drifting with Labour tightening the race.
p.s. try to be objective if you reply please!
I also have another comment which I'll post separately.
BBC yesterday seemed to be talking up N. Devon as a LD regain.
Ben Bradshaw has a huge personal vote. Had to be persuaded to stand again in 2017, so I'm expecting this will be his last roll of the dice. So much housebuilding going on around Exeter that it must be back in play when he does step aside.
Devon East is a weird one. As usual, a forest of posters for Claire Wright. But no UKIP/Brexit this time, so that is a 1200 vote resource for the Tories to grab. Plus, this time there is a Green candidate, so I'd expect Claire to lose a few to them. Got 800 last time they stood in 2010. And I don't know why, but I gather there was a large element of Claire's vote was an anti-Swire vote. Now he's gone, maybe that boil is lanced. Still a Tory hold is my best assessment.
Plymouth could go to a recount.
Heard no suggestions of any worries for the blues in Cambourne and Redruth.
I think in North Devon, the LibDems are still suffering from their previous candidate's disastrous radio interview. Still one of their three live shots in the SW (with St. Ives and North Cornwall) but I'd still think St. Ives looks their best shot at a gain. The slide in the polls nationally and the two party squeeze means they have to be realistic - gains are going to be hard to come by outside deepest Remainia. And even there, fear of Corbyn is a potent factor. For example I'm hearing Zac will probably lose but by nowhere near as much as earlier polling suggests. Because....Corbyn.
All opinions offered as objective as I can be.
Staggers me that mr. Bradshaw is popular. He was in defra and negotiated some of the cfp stuff with the Eu yet was completely unable to understand it. Seen him debate on it during referendum campaign and he was abysmal. Truly shocking.
An interesting double to watch for. With the SNP withdrawing support in kirkcaldy and the labour retreat in votes and the Tories third on 23%, an outside chance of Tories gain Kirkcaldy and Sedgefield, owning the new labour PMs patches? Add in Mandy's hartlepool and Prescotts Hull seat and it's a hilarious New Labour project wipeout.
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
Yes it is worth reading, particularly the section on uncertainty.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
An interesting and probably very perceptive comment from a Bruce Everiss on Guido. This is the social media end game in this election - and the Tories are winning it hands down.
"The Conservatives have done a 180 degree turn with their marketing under Boris. It is night and day.
With May the marketing was staid, old fashioned, boring, unimaginative and, like everything else she touched, utterly useless. It was so bad that it probably did more harm than good.
Under Boris the marketing is fresh, exciting, imaginative, edgy, fun. He has some very good people working on this. Reaching exactly the right voters with exactly the right message at exactly the right time. Delivered with a compulsive joy. An object lesson in how to do it. This will go into marketing textbooks."
An interesting and probably very perceptive comment from a Bruce Everiss on Guido. This is the social media end game in this election - and the Tories are winning it hands down.
"The Conservatives have done a 180 degree turn with their marketing under Boris. It is night and day.
With May the marketing was staid, old fashioned, boring, unimaginative and, like everything else she touched, utterly useless. It was so bad that it probably did more harm than good.
Under Boris the marketing is fresh, exciting, imaginative, edgy, fun. He has some very good people working on this. Reaching exactly the right voters with exactly the right message at exactly the right time. Delivered with a compulsive joy. An object lesson in how to do it. This will go into marketing textbooks."
In deliberating the likely outcome of this GE, I always come back to the fact that Crosby and Cummings are behind the Tories` campaign.
Talked to my parents about politics for the first time....ever. They don't like Johnson or Corbyn but the latter repels them due to his record on anti-semintism, they were quite shocked that some Jews were looking at leaving including people they are friends of friends with. So their vote is settled I think. After hearing that and seeing Mr Palmers comments on my ward I think I know where mine is going too.
An interesting and probably very perceptive comment from a Bruce Everiss on Guido. This is the social media end game in this election - and the Tories are winning it hands down.
"The Conservatives have done a 180 degree turn with their marketing under Boris. It is night and day.
With May the marketing was staid, old fashioned, boring, unimaginative and, like everything else she touched, utterly useless. It was so bad that it probably did more harm than good.
Under Boris the marketing is fresh, exciting, imaginative, edgy, fun. He has some very good people working on this. Reaching exactly the right voters with exactly the right message at exactly the right time. Delivered with a compulsive joy. An object lesson in how to do it. This will go into marketing textbooks."
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
In Islington though they only tend to drink sparkling water or Chardonnay and Corbyn is teetotal
No self-respecting Northern WMC member would use Coors Light to wash the whippet!
It would be pretty good at removing the mud and the fleas from the whippet to be fair
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
Yes it is worth reading, particularly the section on uncertainty.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
What do you think is the fundamental problem with the YouGov model?
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
Hard to see how, Labour are completely invisible in this election. I have had only one party knock my door , SNP. Conservatives invisible as well in what is the most expensive area in the town and only place they are likely to get support.
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
In Islington though they only tend to drink sparkling water or Chardonnay and Corbyn is teetotal
Ha, ha - you've never been to Islington, have you HYUFD?
I have many times, I had a friend who used to live there
An interesting and probably very perceptive comment from a Bruce Everiss on Guido. This is the social media end game in this election - and the Tories are winning it hands down.
"The Conservatives have done a 180 degree turn with their marketing under Boris. It is night and day.
With May the marketing was staid, old fashioned, boring, unimaginative and, like everything else she touched, utterly useless. It was so bad that it probably did more harm than good.
Under Boris the marketing is fresh, exciting, imaginative, edgy, fun. He has some very good people working on this. Reaching exactly the right voters with exactly the right message at exactly the right time. Delivered with a compulsive joy. An object lesson in how to do it. This will go into marketing textbooks."
In deliberating the likely outcome of this GE, I always come back to the fact that Crosby and Cummings are behind the Tories` campaign.
3.6m views for their vid yesterday on Youtube....might be double that in total with other outlets
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Well said. Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
47% in favour of independence. 39% voting SNP. So 8% want an independent Scotland run by who?
Jo Swinson?
Jo Swinson might not become PM but given Ruth Davidson has stepped down she might now be the best Unionist candidate to beat Nicola Sturgeon and replace her as First Minister in 2021
Cuckoo, your brains are addled. Your total ignorance of all things Scottish is breathtaking. Have you ever travelled further north than the M25.
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
Hard to see how, Labour are completely invisible in this election. I have had only one party knock my door , SNP. Conservatives invisible as well in what is the most expensive area in the town and only place they are likely to get support.
You've probably told the Tories to bugger off so many times you've been added to a black list.
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
The Tories will still lose the poorest voters on Thursday which will be the only group Labpur will win.
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
An interesting and probably very perceptive comment from a Bruce Everiss on Guido. This is the social media end game in this election - and the Tories are winning it hands down.
"The Conservatives have done a 180 degree turn with their marketing under Boris. It is night and day.
With May the marketing was staid, old fashioned, boring, unimaginative and, like everything else she touched, utterly useless. It was so bad that it probably did more harm than good.
Under Boris the marketing is fresh, exciting, imaginative, edgy, fun. He has some very good people working on this. Reaching exactly the right voters with exactly the right message at exactly the right time. Delivered with a compulsive joy. An object lesson in how to do it. This will go into marketing textbooks."
Yep - we are finding out in this campaign just how bad the 2017 Tory one was. For me the clearest example is the attacks on Corbyn over his support for the IRA. In many parts of the West Midlands this is a visceral issue. The Birmingham pub bombings are part of the collective folk memory. It was an open goal in 2017 that the Tories did not shoot at. They are this time, to huge effect.
Good old London based parties, and their thick Scottish serfs did not even get a chance to proof read it. Then they wonder why they are almost extinct.
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
Hard to see how, Labour are completely invisible in this election. I have had only one party knock my door , SNP. Conservatives invisible as well in what is the most expensive area in the town and only place they are likely to get support.
Given you are a staunch Nat I expect the Tories and Labour know well from canvass date to give you a miss
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
The Tories will still lose the poorest voters on Thursday which will be the only group Labpur will win.
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
Increasing public spending while cutting taxes in the absence of a North Sea oil bonanza is going to be a huge ask, especially if we end up with the Brexit that Johnson is currently proposing.
She (his first wife) had thought him rather 'bright'. So she was astonished when, in the four unhappy years of their marriage, he never read a single book or seriously debated an idea. Worse, he actively avoided any experience which might challenge his preconceptions. Visiting Vienna, he refused to go into Schoenbrunn Palace because it was 'royal' and dismissed the grand boulevard of The Ring because it was 'capitalist'.
---
In 1987 Corbyn had been at the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead, North London, when his new wife was about to go into labour. So his agent was astonished to receive a phone call; he was even more surprised by its contents. 'I am really worried,' Corbyn said. 'We haven't put out that leaflet.'
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
Yes it is worth reading, particularly the section on uncertainty.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
What do you think is the fundamental problem with the YouGov model?
Insufficiently able to capture seat-specific factors.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Has a) actually materialised? Comments on here suggest the the vast majority of registrations were already on the register.
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
The Tories will still lose the poorest voters on Thursday which will be the only group Labpur will win.
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
Increasing public spending while cutting taxes in the absence of a North Sea oil bonanza is going to be a huge ask, especially if we end up with the Brexit that Johnson is currently proposing.
It won't if it keeps the economy growing and anyway Boris is not a fiscal conservative or that bothered about deficits but a Trump or Berlusconi style populist.
If you look at western politics at the moment conservatives are generally doing best, the UK, the US, Italy, Australia etc where they are going populist
My experience of PB is that if you spout a load of contentious bullshit, you tend to be called out on it...
gave me a good laugh
whilst chewing on the turnips Malc?
No need for chewing , Boiled in salted water and then mashed and sprinkled with black pepper. preferably alongside haggis and mashed tatties, roll on Burns Night.
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
Yes it is worth reading, particularly the section on uncertainty.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
What do you think is the fundamental problem with the YouGov model?
Insufficiently able to capture seat-specific factors.
Are there many of those? I thought they did well with seats such as East Devon.
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
Yes it is worth reading, particularly the section on uncertainty.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
What do you think is the fundamental problem with the YouGov model?
Two problems.
The authors acknowledge one which is the large margin of uncertainty, particularly for individual constituencies. There is a heroic assumption that it will all even out for the national picture (central limit theorem) but there may be systemic uncertainty. Some punters see the MRP as an infallible oracle. The authors don't.
The other problem is the treatment of tactical voting. Unless I missed it, the authors don't discuss this at all, and it is important. Baxter (electoral calculus) changed the methodology to include tactical voting and it had a dramatic impact on the predictions.
I await the MRP projections with great interest but it is not the same as an exit poll. I suspect there is money to be made by betting against it as there will be so many enthusiasts using it as the basis for their punts that it will distort the odds.
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
Yes it is worth reading, particularly the section on uncertainty.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
What do you think is the fundamental problem with the YouGov model?
Unlike his, it responds to the vote inputs? A glaring weakness.
According The BBC Priti P is 'giving more details of the projected immigration scheme. Apparently 'there would be fast-tack entry to the UK for entrepreneurs and some people working for the NHS, and sector-specific schemes for low or unskilled workers to meet labour market shortages.' Does that include care workers, I wonder.
Wonder how you demonstrate that you are an "entrepreneur"?
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
The Tories will still lose the poorest voters on Thursday which will be the only group Labpur will win.
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
Increasing public spending while cutting taxes in the absence of a North Sea oil bonanza is going to be a huge ask, especially if we end up with the Brexit that Johnson is currently proposing.
It won't if it keeps the economy groeimg and anyway Boris is not a fiscal conservative or that bothered about deficits but a Trump or Berlusconi style populist
Yep, Johnson is going to need a booming economy. That will be a challenge given his commitments to cutting immigration and putting up barriers to trade with our biggest export market at a time when the global economy is beginning to slow down. The Tories becoming the party of high deficits is an interesting proposition. I am not convinced it will happen in reality. We shall see.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
The one constant in this election is how little enthusiasm there is for any of the leaders outside of their fanboy base.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Are you going to cite any evidence for your claims?
So overnight we get another Scottish poll and this one put the SCons above their 2017 vote share. I doubt few on here would have considered SNP 35% and SCon 30% a possible result 4 weeks ago.
Seats I will be watching on Thursday night/Friday morning
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Gordon Argyll Perth and N Perthshire Stirling Ayr North Ayrshire Fife NE Edinburgh West, South and SW Kirkcaldy East Dunbartonshire Lanark and Hamilton East East Renfewshire East Lothian Glasgow East, NE and South
Last time there was a huge churn in Scottish seats all going one way. This time I expect it to be 2 way with the SNP winning and losing seats and ending up close to but not above 40.
The authors acknowledge one which is the large margin of uncertainty, particularly for individual constituencies. There is a heroic assumption that it will all even out for the national picture (central limit theorem) but there may be systemic uncertainty. Some punters see the MRP as an infallible oracle. The authors don't.
The other problem is the treatment of tactical voting. Unless I missed it, the authors don't discuss this at all, and it is important. Baxter (electoral calculus) changed the methodology to include tactical voting and it had a dramatic impact on the predictions.
I await the MRP projections with great interest but it is not the same as an exit poll. I suspect there is money to be made by betting against it as there will be so many enthusiasts using it as the basis for their punts that it will distort the odds.
Uncertainty doesn't seem to be a problem with the model, perhaps more how it is communicated? As for tactical voting, you don't think that was in play last time?
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
The one constant in this election is how little enthusiasm there is for any of the leaders outside of their fanboy base.
Yep, those Ipsos-Mori leader ratings showed that there is little love for Johnson in the country. He is very unpopular. Corbyn, though, is historically unpopular. Thus, Johnson wins.
My experience of PB is that if you spout a load of contentious bullshit, you tend to be called out on it...
gave me a good laugh
whilst chewing on the turnips Malc?
No need for chewing , Boiled in salted water and then mashed and sprinkled with black pepper. preferably alongside haggis and mashed tatties, roll on Burns Night.
I mash them in with carrots which I find makes the combination more flavourful
But you’ll probably call me a Southern Jessie for admitting that 😉
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
The Tories will still lose the poorest voters on Thursday which will be the only group Labpur will win.
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
Increasing public spending while cutting taxes in the absence of a North Sea oil bonanza is going to be a huge ask, especially if we end up with the Brexit that Johnson is currently proposing.
It won't if it keeps the economy groeimg and anyway Boris is not a fiscal conservative or that bothered about deficits but a Trump or Berlusconi style populist
Yep, Johnson is going to need a booming economy. That will be a challenge given his commitments to cutting immigration and putting up barriers to trade with our biggest export market at a time when the global economy is beginning to slow down. The Tories becoming the party of high deficits is an interesting proposition. I am not convinced it will happen in reality. We shall see.
The best year for UK growth in recent history was 4% in 1994. Just checked the immigration figures for that year and it was about 75,000.
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
The one constant in this election is how little enthusiasm there is for any of the leaders outside of their fanboy base.
Yep, those Ipsos-Mori leader ratings showed that there is little love for Johnson in the country. He is very unpopular. Corbyn, though, is historically unpopular. Thus, Johnson wins.
I thought his net ratings were near zero? Hardly very unpopular.
Priti Patel, talks about a points based immigration system. No one talks about INVESTING in the local population and training them to do these jobs. Instead of advertising and fast tracking in Pakistan or Nigeria. Or raising wages, to make some jobs, such as care workers, more appealing with some career progression. UK needs skilled employment but it also needs people to do back breaking jobs on minimum wage. Such as production operatives and fruit picking. The big industries, many who have contributed in billions into the Tories fund, won't be happy with staff shortages or paying staff more. It cuts into their profits and affects shareholder. So besides this 'points based' immigration, there will be low skilled immigration also. Eventually making Brexit a 'pointless' excercise. Except, it allowed the Torie to stay in power for 10-15 years, despite savage austerity. Even Houdini couldn't have diverted attention with such skill
Just to add to my earlier post about the fundamentals I'd say there is a small but not statistically insignificant chance of something truly astonishing happening and labour completely imploding on thursday to the low 100s in seats (130 to 140). Some of the anecdata seems apocalyptic for them and the Brexit pull is huge in that it's almost exclusively going Tory.
Although I wouldn't go that far, I do think there's a strange situation whereby a slightly larger lead in national polling would be the difference between a tiny Tory majority or possibly even hung parliament with a little help from the LDs and tactical voting, and Labour starting to haemorrhage seats across the north. 6-7 points the Tories probably gain a lot of votes without huge numbers of seats, and likely lose a few where they're on the defensive. 10 points (which obviously will be a higher lead in seats the Tories are doing well in rather than London) and we start to get the kind of carnage where few Labour MPs or candidates outside London, Liverpool, and Manchester are truly safe.
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
The methodology and variables are pretty well outlined in the covering paper. The detail is worth reading to understand some of the assumptions.
Yes it is worth reading, particularly the section on uncertainty.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
What do you think is the fundamental problem with the YouGov model?
Insufficiently able to capture seat-specific factors.
Are there many of those? I thought they did well with seats such as East Devon.
They have a sample of 100 or so in each seat, which is enough to detect an Indy like Wright doing well - but with a huge margin of error. Demographics won't help much in refining what is essentially a stab in the dark.
What is mysterious about the YG model is how they reconcile (or balance) the two inputs - the seat poll and the national demographic model. Especially where they conflict
My experience of PB is that if you spout a load of contentious bullshit, you tend to be called out on it...
gave me a good laugh
whilst chewing on the turnips Malc?
No need for chewing , Boiled in salted water and then mashed and sprinkled with black pepper. preferably alongside haggis and mashed tatties, roll on Burns Night.
Priti Patel, talks about a points based immigration system. No one talks about INVESTING in the local population and training them to do these jobs. Instead of advertising and fast tracking in Pakistan or Nigeria. Or raising wages, to make some jobs, such as care workers, more appealing with some career progression. UK needs skilled employment but it also needs people to do back breaking jobs on minimum wage. Such as production operatives and fruit picking. The big industries, many who have contributed in billions into the Tories fund, won't be happy with staff shortages or paying staff more. It cuts into their profits and affects shareholder. So besides this 'points based' immigration, there will be low skilled immigration also. Eventually making Brexit a 'pointless' excercise. Except, it allowed the Torie to stay in power for 10-15 years, despite savage austerity. Even Houdini couldn't have diverted attention with such skill
Haven't they just announced significant restrictions on low-skilled immigration?
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
Just need Boris to be pulling a perfect pint of Tim Taylors and..
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
She (his first wife) had thought him rather 'bright'. So she was astonished when, in the four unhappy years of their marriage, he never read a single book or seriously debated an idea. Worse, he actively avoided any experience which might challenge his preconceptions. Visiting Vienna, he refused to go into Schoenbrunn Palace because it was 'royal' and dismissed the grand boulevard of The Ring because it was 'capitalist'.
---
In 1987 Corbyn had been at the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead, North London, when his new wife was about to go into labour. So his agent was astonished to receive a phone call; he was even more surprised by its contents. 'I am really worried,' Corbyn said. 'We haven't put out that leaflet.'
No wonder he couldn't come up with a funny romantic story when asked.
As I`ve said before, it is almost as though his mindset is a sort of psychosis rather than a political ideology. He`s an anti-western protester not a politician. He`s no intellectual, that`s for sure. He goes around in his own fug.
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
Hard to see how, Labour are completely invisible in this election. I have had only one party knock my door , SNP. Conservatives invisible as well in what is the most expensive area in the town and only place they are likely to get support.
Given you are a staunch Nat I expect the Tories and Labour know well from canvass date to give you a miss
Using that logic , why would SNP need to knock my door. Lacklustre opposition parties around here, they know SNP have North Ayrshire and Arran sown up.
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
In Islington though they only tend to drink sparkling water or Chardonnay and Corbyn is teetotal
No self-respecting Northern WMC member would use Coors Light to wash the whippet!
It would be pretty good at removing the mud and the fleas from the whippet to be fair
Coors Light and the like would be regarded as the urine of another insect.
This election in a nutshell. Boris bumbling and joking about cycling on the pavement and asking his team for naughty things theyve seen him do and Sophy Ridge grinning all over her face and loving every minute of it. Hes got it, he knows how to play everyone and it is infectious. That's the unstoppable force grumpy grandpa will get run over by.
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs. The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
A Tory majority government in going to have to make some very difficult choices in order to hang on to those new voters without losing its traditional vote.. If it can be done at all. ‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
The Tories will still lose the poorest voters on Thursday which will be the only group Labpur will win.
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
Increasing public spending while cutting taxes in the absence of a North Sea oil bonanza is going to be a huge ask, especially if we end up with the Brexit that Johnson is currently proposing.
It won't if it keeps the economy groeimg and anyway Boris is not a fiscal conservative or that bothered about deficits but a Trump or Berlusconi style populist
Yep, Johnson is going to need a booming economy. That will be a challenge given his commitments to cutting immigration and putting up barriers to trade with our biggest export market at a time when the global economy is beginning to slow down. The Tories becoming the party of high deficits is an interesting proposition. I am not convinced it will happen in reality. We shall see.
The best year for UK growth in recent history was 4% in 1994. Just checked the immigration figures for that year and it was about 75,000.
I remember 1994. It was one of those years when we were not about to make it much harder and more time consuming to trade with our biggest export market.
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Yes, a Tory party reliant on that vote will be an interesting beast indeed, but we do need a word of warning. All these tales of WWC voters hating Corbyn, of desiring Brexit over all things and despising the student union luvvies of the Labour party were all the stuff of PB threads a few days before GE 2017 too. Some of my most successful constituency bets last time were on Labour in WWC Northern Red seats "nailed on" for Con gains.
The key thing is what WWC voters in places like Workington, Hartlepool, Stoke and Sunderland do at the next general election when they realise that Brexit and Johnson were a mirage and that things haven't improved for them or their areas and indeed might even have got worse
So, a Tories majority is based on this variable. 1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania 2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats Variables to consider a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn b) tactical voting against Conservatives c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas! I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
Are you going to cite any evidence for your claims?
Just follow the links to posts on PB, you shall find tons of evidence. Unless you don't want to see the bleeding obvious Austerity ? Evidence? Well Tories coined it Leave labour? A variable, no one knows about but Tories hope to take them to 350 LD to pick up more seats, not from Labour, in the South/ remaina Tactical voting, is not a new idea, been there since 2017
Comments
The Lib Dems have money to burn.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1203270674258833408?s=19
Wear braces at the interview?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/how-yougovs-2019-general-election-model-works
So not looking good for either.
I think we already know what sort of Brexit we're getting (assuming a Conservative majority) - a slightly half-arsed version that is probably better than nothing.
The horror show for the LibDems will be next year's council elections, when their opponents show the difference between the 2019 Euros and the GE. "Libdems can't win here" everywhere. And they will have brought this upon themselves.
I expect the Tories vote will look similar on Friday, losing some rich, upper middle class voters to the LDs but still winning them overall, winning big with movers on middle incomes and skilled working class voters and still losing the poorest voters to Labour.
I saw the photo on Nigel Farage’s Facebook page. It has 20,000 likes and 4,000 shares. I entirely agree with you though, CCHQ and the Tory press should be all over this. It’s entirely trivial in many ways yet also the photos speak volumes about how out of touch he is and how he is so unrepresentative of a lot of the old Labour values.
Seats I will be watching on Thursday night/Friday morning
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Gordon
Argyll
Perth and N Perthshire
Stirling
Ayr
North Ayrshire
Fife NE
Edinburgh West, South and SW
Kirkcaldy
East Dunbartonshire
Lanark and Hamilton East
East Renfewshire
East Lothian
Glasgow East, NE and South
Last time there was a huge churn in Scottish seats all going one way. This time I expect it to be 2 way with the SNP winning and losing seats and ending up close to but not above 40.
The difference is in the US the LDs and Labour would both be in the Democrats but the LDs would be Hillary or Warren Democrats and Corbyn Labour would be Sanders or AOC Democrats.
‘Delivering Brexit’ is not going to do it.
With MRP it is tempting to focus on the single figure estimates and ignore the wide range of possible outcomes. It is compounded by comparing single figure estimates for individual constituencies with constituency polls to confirm one's belief in the accuracy of the MRP single figure constituency estimates.
I suspect the accurate prediction at GE2017 was a lucky fluke. It was like aiming a trembling rifle at a target and hitting the bulls-eye by fluke.
"The Conservatives have done a 180 degree turn with their marketing under Boris. It is night and day.
With May the marketing was staid, old fashioned, boring, unimaginative and, like everything else she touched, utterly useless. It was so bad that it probably did more harm than good.
Under Boris the marketing is fresh, exciting, imaginative, edgy, fun. He has some very good people working on this. Reaching exactly the right voters with exactly the right message at exactly the right time. Delivered with a compulsive joy. An object lesson in how to do it. This will go into marketing textbooks."
After hearing that and seeing Mr Palmers comments on my ward I think I know where mine is going too.
Preliminary Sunil on Sunday ELBOW data (still awaiting Survation and BMG!): 11 polls with fieldwork end-dates 2nd to 8th December:
Con 43.0 (+0.4)
Lab 33.1 (+0.2)
LD 12.6 (-0.5)
Brex 2.9 (-0.6)
Con lead 9.9 (+0.2)
The Tories will still win the rich despite leakage to the LDs because of fear of Corbyn Labour.
The skilled working class, lower middle class and middle income voters who will go strongly Tory on Thursday can be kept by a combination of Brexit, targeted tax cuts, more money for key public services and building more homes to expand home ownership
She (his first wife) had thought him rather 'bright'. So she was astonished when, in the four unhappy years of their marriage, he never read a single book or seriously debated an idea. Worse, he actively avoided any experience which might challenge his preconceptions. Visiting Vienna, he refused to go into Schoenbrunn Palace because it was 'royal' and dismissed the grand boulevard of The Ring because it was 'capitalist'.
---
In 1987 Corbyn had been at the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead, North London, when his new wife was about to go into labour. So his agent was astonished to receive a phone call; he was even more surprised by its contents. 'I am really worried,' Corbyn said. 'We haven't put out that leaflet.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7768141/The-strange-obsessive-changed-mind-50-years-DAVID-STARKEYS-portrait.html
No wonder he couldn't come up with a funny romantic story when asked.
1) It can be down 10-15 seats in London and South/remania
2) Will make around 40-50 gains in Labour's Northern fort
Overall a net gain of 30-40 seats
Variables to consider
a) Surge in new voter registration. Most likely young voters enthused by Corbyn
b) tactical voting against Conservatives
c) Leave labour voters coming back, voting brexit instead or simply not turning up to vote
d) Incumbency or 10 years of visible austerity, affecting areas which are most vulnerable ie Northern areas!
I still feel it's too close to call. Many middle class remain and those in South know that Corbyn is never going to get a majority. They are happy for him to become PM, but shackled and probably muzzled in a coalition
Many working classes abhor this idea, as for them Corbyn = free immigration, something which is their Achilles heel!
If you look at western politics at the moment conservatives are generally doing best, the UK, the US, Italy, Australia etc where they are going populist
The authors acknowledge one which is the large margin of uncertainty, particularly for individual constituencies. There is a heroic assumption that it will all even out for the national picture (central limit theorem) but there may be systemic uncertainty. Some punters see the MRP as an infallible oracle. The authors don't.
The other problem is the treatment of tactical voting. Unless I missed it, the authors don't discuss this at all, and it is important. Baxter (electoral calculus) changed the methodology to include tactical voting and it had a dramatic impact on the predictions.
I await the MRP projections with great interest but it is not the same as an exit poll. I suspect there is money to be made by betting against it as there will be so many enthusiasts using it as the basis for their punts that it will distort the odds.
But you’ll probably call me a Southern Jessie for admitting that 😉
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/internationalmigrationarecenthistory/2015-01-15
UK needs skilled employment but it also needs people to do back breaking jobs on minimum wage. Such as production operatives and fruit picking. The big industries, many who have contributed in billions into the Tories fund, won't be happy with staff shortages or paying staff more. It cuts into their profits and affects shareholder.
So besides this 'points based' immigration, there will be low skilled immigration also. Eventually making Brexit a 'pointless' excercise. Except, it allowed the Torie to stay in power for 10-15 years, despite savage austerity. Even Houdini couldn't have diverted attention with such skill
What is mysterious about the YG model is how they reconcile (or balance) the two inputs - the seat poll and the national demographic model. Especially where they conflict
Hes got it, he knows how to play everyone and it is infectious. That's the unstoppable force grumpy grandpa will get run over by.
Austerity ? Evidence? Well Tories coined it
Leave labour? A variable, no one knows about but Tories hope to take them to 350
LD to pick up more seats, not from Labour, in the South/ remaina
Tactical voting, is not a new idea, been there since 2017