Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new betting strategy worth pursuing?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new betting strategy worth pursuing?
Fascinating analysis by The Sunday Times.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
They really are a cult now. Not a political party.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1203358369005887488?s=20
Elsewhere, we've had a Scotland only poll with SNP 39, SCon 29 from Panelbase tonight. It's very hard to assess whether or not numbers like this are outliers because there are so few sub-GB surveys, but it does point towards movement and greater efficiency within the Tory vote. Boris Johnson could easily end up with the same share as May but both picking up a lot more votes in most of England, Wales and rural Scotland, whilst going backwards in London and the other core cities, the rich Western Home Counties and urban Scotland. That sort of pattern would help the Lib Dems and Labour to pick up an extra handful of seats in North and West London, Surrey and the like, but would be bad news for the Opposition everywhere else.
My judgement at the moment is that we are heading for a narrow Conservative majority, but that it will be narrow.
It's all very sad.
They'll fume and froth at this suggestion but you're absolutely right Alastair.
Part of me to be honest would be okay with a single figure tory win. Enough to see them get Brexit through, which will mean it's no longer an albatross around Labour's neck, enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader and just enough time to watch the complete shitshow that will be Johnson's tenure.
All of that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
They were still pouring money on Remain after midnight!!!
But ... seems to me that almost anyone would be better than Corbyn to be frank. I do like Keir Starmer. He's also been reverse-tipped by David Herdson.
Although now of course many more will be women!
And, as above, I fear Johnson will have more of the likes of Francois barracking any opponents.
But it also has another more sinister sub-text. There's this pervasive view that you have to bang a one-party drum, that you cannot be pragmatic and flexible.
I have never believed in life that any organisation has a monopoly on truth. Politicians especially. I affiliate LibDem in lots of ways but that doesn't mean I agree with them on everything. I think the decision to go straight to Revoke Article 50 was poor. Whilst I personally am passionate about remaining in the EU, this would be drastically undemocratic and it's pretty illiberal. I also do NOT like the local level shenanigans and the failure to cooperate with Labour moderates.
Nor do I admire all things Labour. I like some of their programme very much indeed, esp. nationalisation of railways and water. Other parts of their manifesto would probably bankrupt the country. And Corbyn's failure to deal with antisemitism in the party is appalling.
I also, for the record, clearly stated on here that I think Parliament should have voted through Theresa May's deal. It was, and still is, the best Brexit deal that has been presented.
They'd be better utilised sending them to Totnes town, to try and keep Dr. Sarah from getting the second place they had last time. Although I'm told the Green vote (over 2,000 in 2017) is not going to Wollaston as planned when they stood down, but is shifting en masse to Labour instead.
Had a ridiculously good canvass for the Blues yesterday. Like, North Korean leader good.
Rother Valley, NE Derbyshire and Hallam. Not my own marginal of Bassetlaw.
So they either think it's safe or gone. I'd have to go with safe judging by the fact Hallam and NED should in theory be more difficult, though Hallam is a very different seat to most round here
Ben Bradshaw will win Exeter. He's hugely popular including with middle classes.
Still think Claire Wright is in with a very good shout in Devon East against the helicoptered newbie from CCHQ.
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is tight.
Are you sure Camborne & Redruth is safe for the tories? Latest betting suggests they're drifting with Labour tightening the race.
p.s. try to be objective if you reply please!
I also have another comment which I'll post separately.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
I could guide you through other constituencies and point to massive LibDem surges, which is why I suggested on here two months ago that Guildford might go LibDem. Woking too possibly. Neither are nationally indicative.
The election, it seems, may be won or lost in the Labour northern heartlands. This was always Dom Cummings' strategy. But if I was a tory I'd be very edgy about this. Very few posters on here really live in the nitty gritty northern towns, and nor do I these days. I do have a lot of friends who do. I still maintain that relying on them to go out and vote tory is asking for trouble. Or at least, it's shaky.
And then there's the Jewish vote. The ethnic vote. And the youthquake.
And dark days with wild weather (possibly).
I do in fact think the tories will just win a narrow majority but this is the hardest election to call properly since 1992. Harder.
Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations
Devon East is a weird one. As usual, a forest of posters for Claire Wright. But no UKIP/Brexit this time, so that is a 1200 vote resource for the Tories to grab. Plus, this time there is a Green candidate, so I'd expect Claire to lose a few to them. Got 800 last time they stood in 2010. And I don't know why, but I gather there was a large element of Claire's vote was an anti-Swire vote. Now he's gone, maybe that boil is lanced. Still a Tory hold is my best assessment.
Plymouth could go to a recount.
Heard no suggestions of any worries for the blues in Cambourne and Redruth.
I think in North Devon, the LibDems are still suffering from their previous candidate's disastrous radio interview. Still one of their three live shots in the SW (with St. Ives and North Cornwall) but I'd still think St. Ives looks their best shot at a gain. The slide in the polls nationally and the two party squeeze means they have to be realistic - gains are going to be hard to come by outside deepest Remainia. And even there, fear of Corbyn is a potent factor. For example I'm hearing Zac will probably lose but by nowhere near as much as earlier polling suggests. Because....Corbyn.
All opinions offered as objective as I can be.
I wonder how Hunt would be doing.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
But more to the point, I am not at all sure that the Tories will win a comfortable majority.
Very possible that there will be a Hung Parliament, another election within the next two years, Brexit still not done and a change of leaders in all three main parties.
I grew up in one, and still have family living in them. I completely agree. But will they vote something else instead? I'd be reluctant to rule out Tice (BXP) in Hartlepool, for example. Or Field in Birkenhead.
Thus far, over £9 million has been matched on this market.
What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
The older and less educated native population perceive hemselves being replaced, or surpassed by first, second or third generation migrants. This sense of marginalisation and neglect of themselves and their children is only increased by the upward social mobility of metropolitan migrant communities.
Indeed. Theresa May and Cameron were centrists, so was Gordon Brown. The last time an extremist won was Thatcher and I'm not even sure you could call her that.
And not being actively malicious or harmful.
Plus some honesty.
Both of the main parties fail on this score: Tories because of Brexit, general lying and the Grayling-style disasters they’ve inflicted on many essential public services.
And Labour because of anti-semitism, Brexit and their fantasy economics.
In amongst the policies of both parties there are some good bits but far far too much nasty dross.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
I've also admitted that Marmite Boris is also a significant factor. He is winning us some unexpected support. The social housing canvass returns are better than we'd have any right to expect in any previous election. But Boris is also a real problem with a number of former rock-solid supporters. Some Remain Tories might have kept faith with a party determined to Brexit - if only the leader weren't Boris.
The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are faced with that choice. Undoubtedly, some will still abstain on that choice by voting LibDem. Or not at all. But for the rest, it is stark. And from what I have been seeing in recent days, they are - reluctantly - going for Boris as the lesser of two weevils.
A final written warning to the Party by many of them. But they won't sack the Tories this time. Perhaps other canvassers out there can confirm this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?
But you may also be on to something. Whilst it's easy to pin all the evils on the world on Brexit in general and David Cameron in particular, I DO think the country has become more extreme. The amount of anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.
I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
Obviously I take constituency polling with a pinch of salt, both were Survation so could have the same failings but they showed a 10% Lab to Con swing in both Wrexham and Workington. Even if this gap closed to a 5% swing as voters return home the Tories will gain 30-40 seats and a comfortable majority, but if it is 10% in these kind of seats than Lab would head sub 200. My hunch is the swing in these Brexitty seats is the swing will be closer to 5% but 10% is possible in a number of places.
This has lead to the brexit impasse and also in USA the preventing of GW Bush, B Obama and now Trump, implementing policies that were voted for in elections (I think the policies of all three were bonkers). Maybe the data analysts have looked hard at this and have judged holding hard is of long term benefit for the party, but sure society is the loser.
I think part of it is internet-fed tribalism, but also the Lehman Shock kind of discredited the idea that things would work out OK if you followed sensible moderate policies that sensible moderate people who knew what they were doing thought were sensible.
It might be enough to let the wig wearing wanker through the middle for BXP.
But believe me you are very wrong. Trust me. I’ve met people including some middle class classical musicians up and down the country.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
There are new ideas needed in the centre, for those wishing to support it.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
You had a haircut?
After all, we landed with Corbyn as Labour leader because none of his opponents had a single new idea between them.
Mysticrose really is amazingly unselfaware, isn't she? Although given she apparently thinks she is the Virgin Mary that may be a 'no shit, Sherlock' comment.
Edit/ That said, there is clearly politics behind where activists are sent, and the LibDem members' website is still pointing people towards helping in the seats of Labour remainers, including some that are clearly no-hope campaigns now. It would be better if the party's comms to members aligned with its comms to voters.
There seems to be some ideological space for *liberalism*, but that's a 25% market at the absolute most, probably more like 15% in most places, and under FPTP that spells certain doom.
A really interesting thread TSE, thanks
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
I wouldn't have described May as a centrist, but I think that goes to show how complicated the question becomes when Brexit cuts across the old political axis.
I agree with @edmundintokyo - extremism wins votes now, not centrism. Thus the success for the Lib Dems in the Euros, but, unhappily for them, many of the most fervent Europhile voters are also left-extremists on economic policy, and, unlike with Leavers, the economy trumps the EU for Remainers.
Morning all