I know there *used* to be one, but that was a long time ago...
Indeed. Theresa May and Cameron were centrists, so was Gordon Brown. The last time an extremist won was Thatcher and I'm not even sure you could call her that.
Thatcher was an extremist in that she broke with the existing consensus, but she was successful in creating a new consensus and thus defining a new centre - though her most fervent supporters caricatured her to create a new extremism.
I wouldn't have described May as a centrist, but I think that goes to show how complicated the question becomes when Brexit cuts across the old political axis.
I agree with @edmundintokyo - extremism wins votes now, not centrism. Thus the success for the Lib Dems in the Euros, but, unhappily for them, many of the most fervent Europhile voters are also left-extremists on economic policy, and, unlike with Leavers, the economy trumps the EU for Remainers.
"Centrist" policies of mass immigration and intervention in foreign wars have led to the chaos we have now. Just calling things "centrist" and "moderate" doesn't make them so. Its just that Blair's PR machine was effective enough to pull the wool over people's eyes
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme,
I think you've answered your own question. They were Remainiac extreme. Just a different form of extremism, hence the knee-jerk decision to go straight for Revoke Article 50, which I think was a big, big, mistake. It smacks of illiberal middle class elitism and superiority over those poor fools who dared to vote leave. Not good.
But you may also be on to something. Whilst it's easy to pin all the evils on the world on Brexit in general and David Cameron in particular, I DO think the country has become more extreme. The amount of anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.
I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
People have drifted to the extreme since social media. There were always people with extreme views - but we all cinsumed the same media, and people with extreme views knew their views were extreme. Now people interact in self-reinforcing bubbles which may bear only a tangential relationship to reality. It's no wonder we've drifted to the extremes.
p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
A lot hangs now on whether the anti-Tory tactical voting can gain real traction. The remain parties are doing their best, as are Blair and Major and the friendly media. Kyle is one of the few within Labour to see the bigger picture.
Edit/ That said, there is clearly politics behind where activists are sent, and the LibDem members' website is still pointing people towards helping in the seats of Labour remainers, including some that are clearly no-hope campaigns now. It would be better if the party's comms to members aligned with its comms to voters.
Keep on pushing the tactical voting disaster.
People prefer to vote for something, not against. The anti tory, hate tory, evil tory or anything is better than tory vote is gigantic in political obsessives minds and much smaller in real life.
Why the Libdems are so keen on second places in structurally right leaning seats bemuses me. A second place is far more valuable in a structurally left leaning seat. Tactical voting will only support a two party duopoly at the cost of the long term exclusion of Libdems.
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Well said. Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
Well, Correct Horse Battery has retired from the fray for a few days" , it must be difficult to keep posting something you know in your heart isn't going to happen. His short term retiral speaks volumes.
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
I know there *used* to be one, but that was a long time ago...
Indeed. Theresa May and Cameron were centrists, so was Gordon Brown. The last time an extremist won was Thatcher and I'm not even sure you could call her that.
Thatcher was an extremist in that she broke with the existing consensus, but she was successful in creating a new consensus and thus defining a new centre - though her most fervent supporters caricatured her to create a new extremism.
Gerard DeGroot once characterised Scargill as the Conservative and Thatcher as the radical. She wanted changes, he wanted to keep everything exactly the same.
Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?
It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
TBH I think it’s just no one paid attention to him.
Brexit has amplified their voice and prominence and they’ve been found wanting
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?
It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side. Precisely none of the benefits Leavers were touting for Brexit have emerged. In the meantime, Britain’s economy has started underperforming comparable economies (with the equivalent of a severe recession coming thanks to the extreme form of Brexit that the government has adopted), the country has been ripped in two, constitutional norms have been shredded, the government has led a direct assault on democracy andNorthern Ireland has been tossed aside, and that’s just for starters. Yet Leavers still profess to imagine that it’s all going to be anything less than abysmal. That really is deranged.
You do know that the EU is printing money to boost their stats, right?
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Many people are anticipating the possibiity of a hamstrung Corbyn government by voting Labour, and if so they're incredibly likely to be right that's the maximum end of possibility for Labour. This is a problem for the Cummings machine and the press, because one of their main tactics is the fear of hugely overbearing control, in a sort of overnight Stalinist takeover and zombie apocalypse.
While I agree that there's no risk of Corbyn winning a majority I do have a small nagging fear of what his outriders might manage to do with a minority.
As we can see by the thread header they are utterly ruthless in pursuit of their main objective.
Well, Correct Horse Battery has retired from the fray for a few days" , it must be difficult to keep posting something you know in your heart isn't going to happen. His short term retiral speaks volumes.
That’s a shame. CHB made a few mistakes but is generally an interesting poster. I hope s/he returns soon.
p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
A lot hangs now on whether the anti-Tory tactical voting can gain real traction. The remain parties are doing their best, as are Blair and Major and the friendly media. Kyle is one of the few within Labour to see the bigger picture.
Edit/ That said, there is clearly politics behind where activists are sent, and the LibDem members' website is still pointing people towards helping in the seats of Labour remainers, including some that are clearly no-hope campaigns now. It would be better if the party's comms to members aligned with its comms to voters.
Keep on pushing the tactical voting disaster.
People prefer to vote for something, not against. The anti tory, hate tory, evil tory or anything is better than tory vote is gigantic in political obsessives minds and much smaller in real life.
Why the Libdems are so keen on second places in structurally right leaning seats bemuses me. A second place is far more valuable in a structurally left leaning seat. Tactical voting will only support a two party duopoly at the cost of the long term exclusion of Libdems.
Tell CCHQ that because they are bigly propagandising the anti-Corbyn vote.
Well, Correct Horse Battery has retired from the fray for a few days" , it must be difficult to keep posting something you know in your heart isn't going to happen. His short term retiral speaks volumes.
The fundamentals are completely different this time of course 1) no significant narrowing of the leader ratings 2) experience of 2017 and the almost Corbyn nightmare 3) no significant poll narrowing as in...... 4) labour have breached 34 just twice, one of which was the Gina Miller 'hmmmm' poll 5) the tory share is solidly in the low to mid 40s and the lead has not dipped below 6 and is still as high as 15 6) there is no anecdata of a surge to labour but plenty of the red wall collapsing 7) follow the activists! 8) without being daft, get Brexit done!
I'll be surprised if it's less than a 40 to 50 majority and not that surprised at a landslide
p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
Guildford and Wimbledon you have a point. When you say Michael Gove isn’t entirely safe (Libs 30k behind, target seat 145). I struggle to take the rest of your tips seriously. He is incredibly safe with a stonking majority, Lab 2nd in 2017 and a seat very different in makeup from Guildford. If the Lib Dems even got close to winning Surrey Heath they’d be looking at over 50 seats.
I can tell you that - living in Surrey Heath as I do - Gove is as good as certain. However, having moved across from Woking recently I do know Lord is a generally unliked MP who does little for his constituency. The Lib Dem candidate has a good track record in woking (from his work as Mayor / as a councillor)
Woking is one of those seats where the Lib Dems should grab 2nd and get within 10,000 votes of the Tories, there will be plenty of these. There is still a decent chunk of Lab votes from their 2nd place in 2017 that the Libs won’t be able to squeeze as much as they’d like and I reckon Lab + LD vote will roughly equal Con vote. Even at 12/1 I wouldn’t touch it as the seat profile is not Lib Demmy enough unlike Winchester or St Albans for example. The 56% remain vote won’t be enough to counter all these handicaps.
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
A lot hangs now on whether the anti-Tory tactical voting can gain real traction. The remain parties are doing their best, as are Blair and Major and the friendly media. Kyle is one of the few within Labour to see the bigger picture.
Edit/ That said, there is clearly politics behind where activists are sent, and the LibDem members' website is still pointing people towards helping in the seats of Labour remainers, including some that are clearly no-hope campaigns now. It would be better if the party's comms to members aligned with its comms to voters.
Keep on pushing the tactical voting disaster.
People prefer to vote for something, not against. The anti tory, hate tory, evil tory or anything is better than tory vote is gigantic in political obsessives minds and much smaller in real life.
Why the Libdems are so keen on second places in structurally right leaning seats bemuses me. A second place is far more valuable in a structurally left leaning seat. Tactical voting will only support a two party duopoly at the cost of the long term exclusion of Libdems.
Tell CCHQ that because they are bigly propagandising the anti-Corbyn vote.
Which wasn't considered a great success by many in 2017, as he outperformed expectations.
Well, Correct Horse Battery has retired from the fray for a few days" , it must be difficult to keep posting something you know in your heart isn't going to happen. His short term retiral speaks volumes.
The fundamentals are completely different this time of course 1) no significant narrowing of the leader ratings 2) experience of 2017 and the almost Corbyn nightmare 3) no significant poll narrowing as in...... 4) labour have breached 34 just twice, one of which was the Gina Miller 'hmmmm' poll 5) the tory share is solidly in the low to mid 40s and the lead has not dipped below 6 and is still as high as 15 6) there is no anecdata of a surge to labour but plenty of the red wall collapsing 7) follow the activists! 8) without being daft, get Brexit done!
I'll be surprised if it's less than a 40 to 50 majority and not that surprised at a landslide
The killer will be turnout. Nobody is enthused by any party this time. So any party that mobilises their core will be in the box seat.
The reason I think this will cause Labour a problem is all the evidence we have right now indicates they have lost their core vote. Whether they switch or just don’t vote, that could be brutal.
Well, Correct Horse Battery has retired from the fray for a few days" , it must be difficult to keep posting something you know in your heart isn't going to happen. His short term retiral speaks volumes.
That’s a shame. CHB made a few mistakes but is generally an interesting poster. I hope s/he returns soon.
Agreed. CBH gives an interesting viewpoint and admits when they indulge in wishful thinking.
I know there *used* to be one, but that was a long time ago...
Indeed. Theresa May and Cameron were centrists, so was Gordon Brown. The last time an extremist won was Thatcher and I'm not even sure you could call her that.
Thatcher was an extremist in that she broke with the existing consensus, but she was successful in creating a new consensus and thus defining a new centre - though her most fervent supporters caricatured her to create a new extremism.
I wouldn't have described May as a centrist, but I think that goes to show how complicated the question becomes when Brexit cuts across the old political axis.
I agree with @edmundintokyo - extremism wins votes now, not centrism. Thus the success for the Lib Dems in the Euros, but, unhappily for them, many of the most fervent Europhile voters are also left-extremists on economic policy, and, unlike with Leavers, the economy trumps the EU for Remainers.
"Centrist" policies of mass immigration and intervention in foreign wars have led to the chaos we have now. Just calling things "centrist" and "moderate" doesn't make them so. Its just that Blair's PR machine was effective enough to pull the wool over people's eyes
There's a confusion between the use of "centrist" by some people to mean "what I think is morally good and self-evidently true" and a more technical definition of "what lies between two extremes, or constitutes the accepted consensus". Politicians like Umunna, for example, think they are talking about the second, when they're really talking about the first.
The moderates have a huge fight on their hands if they want to regain control of the party.
A really interesting thread TSE, thanks
Which party are you referring to, Floater? Bit difficult to tell at the moment.
I don't see the tories as that extreme.
It's clear from my posts i'm voting tory this time but I just want to remind people of my political history - I hated the tories for ages, from before Thatcher got binned and through the 90's into the 00's.
But Labour pushed me back in their column.
I'm old enough to have experienced Labours last dalliance with the hard left.
I had a friend given a kicking by pickets for daring to want to work.
I had a friend who showed me a leaflet being circulated in his secondary school - basically preaching violent revolution.
I look at what Corbyn and his ilk have said and done and it scares me.
The Telegraph feels comfortable calling Corbyn an Anti Semite - no he might be, they feel able to call him that in writing bluntly.
I have read the dossier on anti semitism
All of this convinces me that as extremists go there is only one game in town and I am voting for the only party that keeps them out.
We can bin the tories at a later date - but the immediate task must be keep Corbyn and his ilk out and give a decisive defeat to his politics of envy and hate.
Indeed, fascinating. The same story says that Labour are focusing much more on the leadership succession than actually trying to win the election - Corbyn will feel obliged to resign if he loses seats and McDonnell is poised to take over as caretaker and prime RLB for the long term. Meanwhile, Karie Murphy has commandeered large chunks of the party machine and is pushing Pidcock. Certainly explains why their campaign has been so lacklustre. This is the exactly the sort of thing the £3 Tories4Corbyn entryists were hoping for. Meanwhile, Starmer remains a clear lay for next leader.
Over the last 10 elections the only time the final polls have overstated the Conservative vote were 1983 by 3.2% and 2017 by 0.25%. Conversely the only time the Labour share has been understated were those two elections (by 1.3% and 5.75%), and 2010 (2.2%). I accept that with the “youthquake” things may have changed but I would imagine that the pollsters have tried to take count of this- previous experience might suggest they will have tried too hard.
Based on the most recent polls the Conservative lead averages 11.1% compared to 7.1% at the same stage last year- for this to result in a hung parliament would require a late swing (or systematic polling error) and very efficient tactical voting. Both are of course possible but I would not want to bet on it. The value would be in buying Conservative seats at around 345 as both their price on Betfair and the Spreads appears to presume the polling errors of 2017 will be repeated.
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme,
I think you've answered your own question. They were Remainiac extreme. Just a different form of extremism, hence the knee-jerk decision to go straight for Revoke Article 50, which I think was a big, big, mistake. It smacks of illiberal middle class elitism and superiority over those poor fools who dared to vote leave. Not good.
But you may also be on to something. Whilst it's easy to pin all the evils on the world on Brexit in general and David Cameron in particular, I DO think the country has become more extreme. The amount of anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.
I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
Here in Broxtowe, which voted 52% Leave, I'm not encountering that anger - it's all perfectly civilised, as it's always been ("I've always been Conservative, I'm afraid, I do apologise." said one elderly chap without irony). But I'm meeting the extremism. People will calmly, politely tell you that they would like to vote for a hard Brexit, or Revoke.
Centrism is a label. As a label for coherent policies, it's a very good label. But without the policies it's an empty vessel, and in the end something always beats nothing.
I went Corbynist after 2010 as I felt we'd run out of centrist ideas and needed a progressive reboot. I don't regret it, though I'd concede that the current programme could be seen as, um, no shark unjumped. In the end, practicalities constrain any govenment, and you choose the option which seems to you to have its heart broadly in the right place.
That, I think, is what most voters are doing. Johnson's undeniably dynamic air may be persuading rather more to give him a shor in the hope that he knows what he's doing, with potentially very dangerous mconsequences, starting with a hard Brexit next year. In the end it will take some quite serious tactical voting to stop it. It will take people like Mike who really dislike Corbyn and Labour friends who really dislike Swinson to vote intelligently to stop the steamroller.
Anyone feel like playing a game of estimated vote shares? My guess
Con 45% Lab 32% LD 11%
Wont bother with the rest
2% either way of that would be the range I think but yeah, I'd go with those numbers
OGH should have a competition on vote shares , would make fun reading after the event. I am happy with any figures that result in Corbyn being crushed.
According The BBC Priti P is 'giving more details of the projected immigration scheme. Apparently 'there would be fast-tack entry to the UK for entrepreneurs and some people working for the NHS, and sector-specific schemes for low or unskilled workers to meet labour market shortages.' Does that include care workers, I wonder.
I think another point we need to consider here is churn. Where are the Liberal Democrats picking up votes? Evidence would suggest a fair old chunk of them are Tory Remainers. Yet the Tory vote appears roughly static. So, where are they getting votes to replace the ones they’re losing? The only logical explanation is, from Labour, who are the only party to have shed significant vote share.
It seems unlikely that they are picking up middle class students and graduates in London or Manchester. The policy offering is wrong and these are the groups most frequently totally fooled er, attracted by Corbyn.
But if that is true, that means Labour must be truly haemorrhaging votes in its traditional heartlands in the north, which tend to have quite small electorates. Again, such evidence as we have suggests Labour believe this is happening. If they are nervous about Easington and Ashton under Lyne all bets on what happens next are off.
Is this to say the Tories will advance in the north? No. For a start, many undecideds may still break for Labour in such places. But it does mean that the value is likely to be in seats that have been Labour for literally decades but voted Leave. Workington, Durham, Hemsworth etc. There could be some real shocks on election night in such areas.
At the same time, it makes the Tories task of taking city seats much harder. Labour to win Kensington and Canterbury, which should be done and dusted for the Tories on paper, might well be value.
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Artists and all that jazz?
We dont want freedom of movement for foreign classical musicians though. They just dont know how to conduct themselves.
Hes the sort of arse who visits the pub once a year on xmas day lunchtime then leads the save our pub group when it inevitably faces being shut down because the local population dont use it (except xmas day lunchtime for their 2 pints and a good old moan about waiting to get served)
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Artists and all that jazz?
We dont want freedom of movement for foreign classical musicians though. They just dont know how to conduct themselves.
Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side. Precisely none of the benefits Leavers were touting for Brexit have emerged. In the meantime, Britain’s economy has started underperforming comparable economies (with the equivalent of a severe recession coming thanks to the extreme form of Brexit that the government has adopted), the country has been ripped in two, constitutional norms have been shredded, the government has led a direct assault on democracy andNorthern Ireland has been tossed aside, and that’s just for starters. Yet Leavers still profess to imagine that it’s all going to be anything less than abysmal. That really is deranged.
Can't let this one go. You are very right - the main benefit of Brexit was actually leaving. Oddly that hasn't emerged yet, due to remainers like you deciding that democracy doesn't matter. The country being ripped in two is entirely down to people refusing to accept the result. You cannot have a democracy if the losing side won't accept the result. And if we're looking at what was touted for Brexit, you seem to be forgetting that your side were predicting the end of the world when we voted to leave - despite your side's best efforts to screw things up and prolong the uncertainty that still hasn't happened.
And "extreme form of Brexit"? You mean actually leaving in any way whatsoever? It's all a little 1984, with the redefinition of words.
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Artists and all that jazz?
They may be preaching to the choir. This election may be their swansong.
That's what I have been saying for weeks, get out there, speak to people, no need to canvass jus. They loathe Corbyn, I mean really loathe him, just like I do!
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Obviously it’s a shit beer and not as easy to pour as others but why is someone else holding the glass?, why do neither of them know to tilt it? It doesn’t matter if you’re teetotal, he must have been in a pub and his favourite TV show is Eastenders. Disgraceful.
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Well said. Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
47% in favour of independence. 39% voting SNP. So 8% want an independent Scotland run by who?
Just to add to my earlier post about the fundamentals I'd say there is a small but not statistically insignificant chance of something truly astonishing happening and labour completely imploding on thursday to the low 100s in seats (130 to 140). Some of the anecdata seems apocalyptic for them and the Brexit pull is huge in that it's almost exclusively going Tory.
That's what I have been saying for weeks, get out there, speak to people, no need to canvass jus. They loathe Corbyn, I mean really loathe him, just like I do!
All anecdotal though innit, in that sense it’s just like 2017. Truth is There’s labour posters up and labour voters because people like the Labour manifesto. They are not stupid, the manifesto looks at what had been wrong in this country last ten years, lack of productivity due to too liassez faire capitalism, communities left behind as their police station and hospital closes and housing crap for example, how austerity was only inflicted on the working classes not the rich, and people of both nations rich and poor see labour’s manifesto as one stepping stone to how the 2020s can be better. If you look at the fact checkers from last fridays debate, labour’s corporation tax rise only goes back to 2010 level, not the 1970s. It’s hardly Marxist, socialist or even rampant Keynes. It’s hardly class war. If class war worries you how do you understand comments from Tory candidates: putting down like unwanted dogs those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, disabled shouldn’t be paid the same because they are useless, residents of grenfell should have used their common sense not listen to the police and fire service.
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Well said. Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
47% in favour of independence. 39% voting SNP. So 8% want an independent Scotland run by who?
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Artists and all that jazz?
They may be preaching to the choir. This election may be their swansong.
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Artists and all that jazz?
They may be preaching to the choir. This election may be their swansong.
It may indeed but theyll surely be bassoon
They won't be trumpeting the result nor harping on about it.
p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
Surrey Heath is unlikely IMO. The YouGov MRP figures were Con 55%, LD 27%, Lab 12%. Even if it's wrong by quite a lot, it won't be wrong by 28%.
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
I've also admitted that Marmite Boris is also a significant factor. He is winning us some unexpected support. The social housing canvass returns are better than we'd have any right to expect in any previous election. But Boris is also a real problem with a number of former rock-solid supporters. Some Remain Tories might have kept faith with a party determined to Brexit - if only the leader weren't Boris.
The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are faced with that choice. Undoubtedly, some will still abstain on that choice by voting LibDem. Or not at all. But for the rest, it is stark. And from what I have been seeing in recent days, they are - reluctantly - going for Boris as the lesser of two weevils.
A final written warning to the Party by many of them. But they won't sack the Tories this time. Perhaps other canvassers out there can confirm this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Well said. Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
47% in favour of independence. 39% voting SNP. So 8% want an independent Scotland run by who?
Jo Swinson?
'On day one I'll cancel everything that's ever happened'
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Artists and all that jazz?
They may be preaching to the choir. This election may be their swansong.
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
This only makes sense if you think Brexit =a lurch to the right, because nothing else he's doing is. There's an awful lot of throwing money around on the style of pre-Corbyn Labour going on.
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Artists and all that jazz?
They may be preaching to the choir. This election may be their swansong.
It may indeed but theyll surely be bassoon
They won't be trumpeting the result nor harping on about it.
But wondering would wind be to blame or is it good old brass pulling the strings?
I think another point we need to consider here is churn. Where are the Liberal Democrats picking up votes? Evidence would suggest a fair old chunk of them are Tory Remainers. Yet the Tory vote appears roughly static. So, where are they getting votes to replace the ones they’re losing? The only logical explanation is, from Labour, who are the only party to have shed significant vote share.
It seems unlikely that they are picking up middle class students and graduates in London or Manchester. The policy offering is wrong and these are the groups most frequently totally fooled er, attracted by Corbyn.
But if that is true, that means Labour must be truly haemorrhaging votes in its traditional heartlands in the north, which tend to have quite small electorates. Again, such evidence as we have suggests Labour believe this is happening. If they are nervous about Easington and Ashton under Lyne all bets on what happens next are off.
Is this to say the Tories will advance in the north? No. For a start, many undecideds may still break for Labour in such places. But it does mean that the value is likely to be in seats that have been Labour for literally decades but voted Leave. Workington, Durham, Hemsworth etc. There could be some real shocks on election night in such areas.
At the same time, it makes the Tories task of taking city seats much harder. Labour to win Kensington and Canterbury, which should be done and dusted for the Tories on paper, might well be value.
Kensington looks like it'll go back to the Tories because of a split vote caused by the LD intervention of Sam Gyimah. Canterbury on the other hand is looking very good for Labour according to the YouGov MRP study.
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme,
...
But you may also be on to something. Whilst it's easy to pin all the evils on the world on Brexit in general and David Cameron in particular, I DO think the country has become more extreme. The amount of anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.
I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
Here in Broxtowe, which voted 52% Leave, I'm not encountering that anger - it's all perfectly civilised, as it's always been ("I've always been Conservative, I'm afraid, I do apologise." said one elderly chap without irony). But I'm meeting the extremism. People will calmly, politely tell you that they would like to vote for a hard Brexit, or Revoke.
Centrism is a label. As a label for coherent policies, it's a very good label. But without the policies it's an empty vessel, and in the end something always beats nothing.
I went Corbynist after 2010 as I felt we'd run out of centrist ideas and needed a progressive reboot. I don't regret it, though I'd concede that the current programme could be seen as, um, no shark unjumped. In the end, practicalities constrain any govenment, and you choose the option which seems to you to have its heart broadly in the right place.
That, I think, is what most voters are doing. Johnson's undeniably dynamic air may be persuading rather more to give him a shor in the hope that he knows what he's doing, with potentially very dangerous mconsequences, starting with a hard Brexit next year. In the end it will take some quite serious tactical voting to stop it. It will take people like Mike who really dislike Corbyn and Labour friends who really dislike Swinson to vote intelligently to stop the steamroller.
Over the last 10 elections the only time the final polls have overstated the Conservative vote were 1983 by 3.2% and 2017 by 0.25%. Conversely the only time the Labour share has been understated were those two elections (by 1.3% and 5.75%), and 2010 (2.2%). I accept that with the “youthquake” things may have changed but I would imagine that the pollsters have tried to take count of this- previous experience might suggest they will have tried too hard.
Based on the most recent polls the Conservative lead averages 11.1% compared to 7.1% at the same stage last year- for this to result in a hung parliament would require a late swing (or systematic polling error) and very efficient tactical voting. Both are of course possible but I would not want to bet on it. The value would be in buying Conservative seats at around 345 as both their price on Betfair and the Spreads appears to presume the polling errors of 2017 will be repeated.
I would imagine quite a few older women happy to say they would vote for Theresa May as a decent woman trying her best would become shy Tories when asked if they would support Boris Johnson.
Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
Heard that too. It's not just classical musicians either.
Artists and all that jazz?
They may be preaching to the choir. This election may be their swansong.
It may indeed but theyll surely be bassoon
It is older voters who wanted to end FOM, so they will blame pop.
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are faced with that choice. Undoubtedly, some will still abstain on that choice by voting LibDem. Or not at all. But for the rest, it is stark. And from what I have been seeing in recent days, they are - reluctantly - going for Boris as the lesser of two weevils.
A final written warning to the Party by many of them. But they won't sack the Tories this time. Perhaps other canvassers out there can confirm this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Middle-class voters in the shire counties are still solidly behind the Conservatives. It's only in the big cities that the Tories are losing significant support with the middle-classes. For example if you take a county in the Midlands like say Shropshire, Derbyshire or Staffordshire, you'd find the majority of middle-class voters still solidly behind the Tories.
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Well said. Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
47% in favour of independence. 39% voting SNP. So 8% want an independent Scotland run by who?
Jo Swinson?
Jo Swinson might not become PM but given Ruth Davidson has stepped down she might now be the best Unionist candidate to beat Nicola Sturgeon and replace her as First Minister in 2021
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme,
I f anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.
I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
Here in Broxtowe, which voted 52% Leave, I'm not encountering that anger - it's all perfectly civilised, as it's always been ("I've always been Conservative, I'm afraid, I do apologise." said one elderly chap without irony). But I'm meeting the extremism. People will calmly, politely tell you that they would like to vote for a hard Brexit, or Revoke.
Centrism is a label. As a label for coherent policies, it's a very good label. But without the policies it's an empty vessel, and in the end something always beats nothing.
I went Corbynist after 2010 as I felt we'd run out of centrist ideas and needed a progressive reboot. I don't regret it, though I'd concede that the current programme could be seen as, um, no shark unjumped. In the end, practicalities constrain any govenment, and you choose the option which seems to you to have its heart broadly in the right place.
Doing the fooling is always so much easier if you are up against an opponent with even less credibility than yourself. In Jeremy Corbyn, Labour offers a candidate for Number 10 who has achieved the astonishing feat of being even less trusted with the premiership than the incumbent. If the Tories win this election, no account of their victory will be complete without analysing the critical role played in that outcome by their greatest collaborators, the Corbynite cadre who control the Labour party. After nearly a decade of often chaotic, frequently failing and bitterly divided Conservative government that has presided over an era of austerity, this ought to have been an election the principal party of opposition had confident hopes of winning. Yet Labour ends this campaign as it began: trailing the Tories. Its fantastical wishlists of promises are not believed and it has a candidate for Downing Street who plumbs depths of unpopularity never previously visited by any British opposition leader.
For once agree with you. It’s not a Labour thing at all. Was it there under Milliband? Are people claiming Labour’s anti Semitism came into the party because of the Marxist entryism the corbyn gang encouraged? After all look at the rampant anti semitism in Russia under the commies, that even appeared alive and well in sky drama Chernobyl. I claim the anti semitism social media is spotlighting has always been part of british culture, from way way back, from top to the bottom, all classes. Why would they get it from Marx? He was a Jew.
I think another point we need to consider here is churn. Where are the Liberal Democrats picking up votes? Evidence would suggest a fair old chunk of them are Tory Remainers. Yet the Tory vote appears roughly static. So, where are they getting votes to replace the ones they’re losing? The only logical explanation is, from Labour, who are the only party to have shed significant vote share.
It seems unlikely that they are picking up middle class students and graduates in London or Manchester. The policy offering is wrong and these are the groups most frequently totally fooled er, attracted by Corbyn.
But if that is true, that means Labour must be truly haemorrhaging votes in its traditional heartlands in the north, which tend to have quite small electorates. Again, such evidence as we have suggests Labour believe this is happening. If they are nervous about Easington and Ashton under Lyne all bets on what happens next are off.
Is this to say the Tories will advance in the north? No. For a start, many undecideds may still break for Labour in such places. But it does mean that the value is likely to be in seats that have been Labour for literally decades but voted Leave. Workington, Durham, Hemsworth etc. There could be some real shocks on election night in such areas.
At the same time, it makes the Tories task of taking city seats much harder. Labour to win Kensington and Canterbury, which should be done and dusted for the Tories on paper, might well be value.
Kensington looks like it'll go back to the Tories because of a split vote caused by the LD intervention of Sam Gyimah. Canterbury on the other hand is looking very good for Labour according to the YouGov MRP study.
Unless I'm mistaken the Tories brought in someone from Essex. Not usually a good idea to have someone from the wrong side of the river. In either county.
Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
Okay the nasties on here have woken up.
I'm off ...
To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.
She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
Well said. Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
47% in favour of independence. 39% voting SNP. So 8% want an independent Scotland run by who?
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
We will know on Tuesday night when the final MRP comes out
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.
I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
Yes, a Tory party reliant on that vote will be an interesting beast indeed, but we do need a word of warning. All these tales of WWC voters hating Corbyn, of desiring Brexit over all things and despising the student union luvvies of the Labour party were all the stuff of PB threads a few days before GE 2017 too. Some of my most successful constituency bets last time were on Labour in WWC Northern Red seats "nailed on" for Con gains.
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
This only makes sense if you think Brexit =a lurch to the right, because nothing else he's doing is. There's an awful lot of throwing money around on the style of pre-Corbyn Labour going on.
Johnson is making a series of contradictory promises that cannot all be met so at some point the Tories will be forced into making some very tough choices. That is when we will find out what the reality of Brexit really is. It could be that the Tories decide to raise taxes across the board and go on a huge borrowing spree in order to deliver on promises to improve public services. Or it may turn out that they do not.
Christ alive...he can't even pour a lager. Is he actually good for any job? Not that he has ever had one.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.
The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.
What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
There is a market for centrism - once Brexit happens.
The LD revoke policy is as extreme as Corbyn’s manifesto, to the 17.4m who voted to leave the EU.
p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.
Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.
But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
Guildford and Wimbledon you have a point. When you say Michael Gove isn’t entirely safe (Libs 30k behind, target seat 145). I struggle to take the rest of your tips seriously. He is incredibly safe with a stonking majority, Lab 2nd in 2017 and a seat very different in makeup from Guildford. If the Lib Dems even got close to winning Surrey Heath they’d be looking at over 50 seats.
I can tell you that - living in Surrey Heath as I do - Gove is as good as certain. However, having moved across from Woking recently I do know Lord is a generally unliked MP who does little for his constituency. The Lib Dem candidate has a good track record in woking (from his work as Mayor / as a councillor)
I think that we underestimate the amount of tribalism that has to be overcome to oust a sitting candidate. For example, I have no doubt that what you say about the Lib Dem candidate is accurate, what I don't believe is that very many people have a clue who the candidate is or what they stand for other than the colour of their rosette. I am reasonably engaged in politics, but have absolutely no clue of the name of my Mayor or local councillors. I'm sure that puts me into the vast majority of people. Support for your team outweighs pretty much everything until a seismic shock in the form of the utter crapness of a Corbyn, comes along to terrify the voters.
MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.
There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.
I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.
But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions,
The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are faced with that choice. Undoubtedly, some will still abstain on that choice by voting LibDem. Or not at all. But for the rest, it is stark. And from what I have been seeing in recent days, they are - reluctantly - going for Boris as the lesser of two weevils.
A final written warning to the Party by many of them. But they won't sack the Tories this time. Perhaps other canvassers out there can confirm this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?
I note your comment about support for Tories (or BXP) in social housing. Formally solid LD areas of social housing are now leaking to Tory or BXP, even in Barnes. This is more than offset by rock solid affluent Tory areas switching en masse to LDs.
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
The Tories still lead with middle class voters even if they have lost a few to the LDs, just they now do equally as well if not better with working class voters.
Labour is being squeezed from both ends, losing middle class voters to the LDs and working class voters to the Tories and Brexit Party.
Comments
People prefer to vote for something, not against.
The anti tory, hate tory, evil tory or anything is better than tory vote is gigantic in political obsessives minds and much smaller in real life.
Why the Libdems are so keen on second places in structurally right leaning seats bemuses me. A second place is far more valuable in a structurally left leaning seat. Tactical voting will only support a two party duopoly at the cost of the long term exclusion of Libdems.
Interesting panelbase from Scotland last night, it suggests some very interesting and close fights in those Tory and SNP held marginals
Brexit has amplified their voice and prominence and they’ve been found wanting
As we can see by the thread header they are utterly ruthless in pursuit of their main objective.
1) no significant narrowing of the leader ratings
2) experience of 2017 and the almost Corbyn nightmare
3) no significant poll narrowing as in......
4) labour have breached 34 just twice, one of which was the Gina Miller 'hmmmm' poll
5) the tory share is solidly in the low to mid 40s and the lead has not dipped below 6 and is still as high as 15
6) there is no anecdata of a surge to labour but plenty of the red wall collapsing
7) follow the activists!
8) without being daft, get Brexit done!
I'll be surprised if it's less than a 40 to 50 majority and not that surprised at a landslide
Woking is one of those seats where the Lib Dems should grab 2nd and get within 10,000 votes of the Tories, there will be plenty of these. There is still a decent chunk of Lab votes from their 2nd place in 2017 that the Libs won’t be able to squeeze as much as they’d like and I reckon Lab + LD vote will roughly equal Con vote. Even at 12/1 I wouldn’t touch it as the seat profile is not Lib Demmy enough unlike Winchester or St Albans for example. The 56% remain vote won’t be enough to counter all these handicaps.
Con 45%
Lab 32%
LD 11%
Wont bother with the rest
The reason I think this will cause Labour a problem is all the evidence we have right now indicates they have lost their core vote. Whether they switch or just don’t vote, that could be brutal.
But, still four days for that to change.
It's arguable of course that feasibility studies etc can be categorised as 'work started' but it's not what most people understand by the term.
It's clear from my posts i'm voting tory this time but I just want to remind people of my political history - I hated the tories for ages, from before Thatcher got binned and through the 90's into the 00's.
But Labour pushed me back in their column.
I'm old enough to have experienced Labours last dalliance with the hard left.
I had a friend given a kicking by pickets for daring to want to work.
I had a friend who showed me a leaflet being circulated in his secondary school - basically preaching violent revolution.
I look at what Corbyn and his ilk have said and done and it scares me.
The Telegraph feels comfortable calling Corbyn an Anti Semite - no he might be, they feel able to call him that in writing bluntly.
I have read the dossier on anti semitism
All of this convinces me that as extremists go there is only one game in town and I am voting for the only party that keeps them out.
We can bin the tories at a later date - but the immediate task must be keep Corbyn and his ilk out and give a decisive defeat to his politics of envy and hate.
https://twitter.com/EmmaKnox4U/status/1203431030037897216
Certainly explains why their campaign has been so lacklustre. This is the exactly the sort of thing the £3 Tories4Corbyn entryists were hoping for. Meanwhile, Starmer remains a clear lay for next leader.
I accept that with the “youthquake” things may have changed but I would imagine that the pollsters have tried to take count of this- previous experience might suggest they will have tried too hard.
Based on the most recent polls the Conservative lead averages 11.1% compared to 7.1% at the same stage last year- for this to result in a hung parliament would require a late swing (or systematic polling error) and very efficient tactical voting. Both are of course possible but I would not want to bet on it. The value would be in buying Conservative seats at around 345 as both their price on Betfair and the Spreads appears to presume the polling errors of 2017 will be repeated.
Centrism is a label. As a label for coherent policies, it's a very good label. But without the policies it's an empty vessel, and in the end something always beats nothing.
I went Corbynist after 2010 as I felt we'd run out of centrist ideas and needed a progressive reboot. I don't regret it, though I'd concede that the current programme could be seen as, um, no shark unjumped. In the end, practicalities constrain any govenment, and you choose the option which seems to you to have its heart broadly in the right place.
That, I think, is what most voters are doing. Johnson's undeniably dynamic air may be persuading rather more to give him a shor in the hope that he knows what he's doing, with potentially very dangerous mconsequences, starting with a hard Brexit next year. In the end it will take some quite serious tactical voting to stop it. It will take people like Mike who really dislike Corbyn and Labour friends who really dislike Swinson to vote intelligently to stop the steamroller.
https://ibb.co/JkgHFhD
https://twitter.com/daily_ref/status/1203335261897285632?s=21
Apparently 'there would be fast-tack entry to the UK for entrepreneurs and some people working for the NHS, and sector-specific schemes for low or unskilled workers to meet labour market shortages.'
Does that include care workers, I wonder.
It seems unlikely that they are picking up middle class students and graduates in London or Manchester. The policy offering is wrong and these are the groups most frequently
totally fooleder, attracted by Corbyn.But if that is true, that means Labour must be truly haemorrhaging votes in its traditional heartlands in the north, which tend to have quite small electorates. Again, such evidence as we have suggests Labour believe this is happening. If they are nervous about Easington and Ashton under Lyne all bets on what happens next are off.
Is this to say the Tories will advance in the north? No. For a start, many undecideds may still break for Labour in such places. But it does mean that the value is likely to be in seats that have been Labour for literally decades but voted Leave. Workington, Durham, Hemsworth etc. There could be some real shocks on election night in such areas.
At the same time, it makes the Tories task of taking city seats much harder. Labour to win Kensington and Canterbury, which should be done and dusted for the Tories on paper, might well be value.
The country being ripped in two is entirely down to people refusing to accept the result. You cannot have a democracy if the losing side won't accept the result.
And if we're looking at what was touted for Brexit, you seem to be forgetting that your side were predicting the end of the world when we voted to leave - despite your side's best efforts to screw things up and prolong the uncertainty that still hasn't happened.
And "extreme form of Brexit"? You mean actually leaving in any way whatsoever? It's all a little 1984, with the redefinition of words.
Pause.
I’ll get my coat.
Have a good morning.
Truth is There’s labour posters up and labour voters because people like the Labour manifesto. They are not stupid, the manifesto looks at what had been wrong in this country last ten years, lack of productivity due to too liassez faire capitalism, communities left behind as their police station and hospital closes and housing crap for example, how austerity was only inflicted on the working classes not the rich, and people of both nations rich and poor see labour’s manifesto as one stepping stone to how the 2020s can be better.
If you look at the fact checkers from last fridays debate, labour’s corporation tax rise only goes back to 2010 level, not the 1970s. It’s hardly Marxist, socialist or even rampant Keynes. It’s hardly class war.
If class war worries you how do you understand comments from Tory candidates: putting down like unwanted dogs those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, disabled shouldn’t be paid the same because they are useless, residents of grenfell should have used their common sense not listen to the police and fire service.
Corbyn.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
The Tory party of the the future will be a strange beast, deserted by the middle class and looking for its support from the "left behind" who are fickle and often don't vote - "what's the point mate".
I've finished making the payments.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/08/if-boris-johnson-gets-back-to-number-10-he-will-have-jeremy-corbyn-to-thank
For once agree with you. It’s not a Labour thing at all.
Was it there under Milliband? Are people claiming Labour’s anti Semitism came into the party because of the Marxist entryism the corbyn gang encouraged? After all look at the rampant anti semitism in Russia under the commies, that even appeared alive and well in sky drama Chernobyl.
I claim the anti semitism social media is spotlighting has always been part of british culture, from way way back, from top to the bottom, all classes. Why would they get it from Marx? He was a Jew.
SNP 39% (-1)
SCon 29% (+1)
SLab 21% (+1)
SLD 10% (-1)
It is actually the SLab 21% that concerns me most. That is their best Scottish poll showing since April. Looks like Labour are peaking just right and the Lib Dems are dipping at just the wrong moment.
Our only consolation is that Panelbase has the SNP at 39% in October too, when other pollsters had us in the low 40s.
The heavy media focus on the Con vs Lab fight has, as usual, misled many voters.
However, I’m increasingly optimistic that the SCons are getting support in the wrong areas: building up for some fantastic second places throughout the Central Belt.
I am surprised the papers haven't used the above. Especially given Tories are targeting Northerners. Anybody from there knows, a thing that pisses off a Flat Cap Fred more than Brexit not getting done, a pint with the wrong amount of head (what size that should be requires more debate than the HoC have spent on Brexit so far).
The LD revoke policy is as extreme as Corbyn’s manifesto, to the 17.4m who voted to leave the EU.
For example, I have no doubt that what you say about the Lib Dem candidate is accurate, what I don't believe is that very many people have a clue who the candidate is or what they stand for other than the colour of their rosette.
I am reasonably engaged in politics, but have absolutely no clue of the name of my Mayor or local councillors. I'm sure that puts me into the vast majority of people.
Support for your team outweighs pretty much everything until a seismic shock in the form of the utter crapness of a Corbyn, comes along to terrify the voters.
Labour is being squeezed from both ends, losing middle class voters to the LDs and working class voters to the Tories and Brexit Party.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203316984164835328?s=20
on the pavment'.