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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A suggested new cross-break for GE2019 pollsters – separate nu

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  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,842


    twitter.com/PrisonPlanet/status/1021886560399237120?s=20

    Oh no they're not.
    Stand up comedy at the moment is absolutely shit all round. The likes of Romesh Ranganathan are the big stars, their gags are just so tame and dull, and his sitcom is even worse.
    Olga Koch is pretty good, and Katherine Ryan is great live.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    This focus group is fascinating. It tallies EXACTLY with the rumours I'm hearing in the West Midlands, NE and even the NW.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7748667/Asda-hits-Jeremy-Corbyn-accuses-exploiting-workforce.html

    I have a son who has been supported by Asda far more than I would have expected with his battles against OCD and anxiety.

    The State sector on the other hand with my youngest .....

    Don't get me started
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    edited December 2019

    So Corbyn bought a Secondary Infektion scam?
    https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1Y6206

    Its oks, Carole Conspiracy will be on it....right...holds breath....

    Is interesting, we have had and Aaron Banks twitter hack in the space of a week or so.
    The dozy beggars. If something like that first appears when dumped on social media you ought to be extremely wary of it. Of course if you already have a conspiracist mindset, as does much of the Labour Party leadership, you probably jump on it as it proves what you "already knew".

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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Comedy gold from the DT . All of a sudden worried about Russian influence. Perhaps they’d like to ask Bozo why the Russian report wasn’t published ?

  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Just 8 days campaigning left

    Watch the moon grow bigger, till the day of lunacy.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,230
    edited December 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
    I am going to make myself unpopular I know.
    But here goes anyway: so was Carl Beech.
    If she thinks a crime was committed against her or by an individual, she should be reporting it to the police and giving evidence in court in a trial. Not on prime time TV. Trial by television is abhorrent and unfair. People can prepare and rehearse their stories. This is not testimony, properly tested and challenged and corroborated, in any sense.
    I have no idea who is or is not telling the truth. But I do know that this is not the way to find out the truth about what Epstein did or to take the appropriate legal action against others who may have committed criminal acts. And even Andrew, dim as he appears to be, deserves the benefit of the law.
    She did - she reported it to The Met. Who did nothing. It was in the documentary.
    She reported what alleged crime, exactly, committed by whom, allegedly, in Britain?
    Because - and God knows I am no fan of the police - having sex with a 17 year old is not a crime in Britain.
    PS I have been out this evening so have not watched the programme.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    HYUFD said:
    Keep an eye out for Trump wearing a gag with a Tory party logo on it.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    nico67 said:

    Comedy gold from the DT . All of a sudden worried about Russian influence. Perhaps they’d like to ask Bozo why the Russian report wasn’t published ?

    Because it's going to need a lot of updating?
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,640
    edited December 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
    I am going to make myself unpopular I know.
    But here goes anyway: so was Carl Beech.
    If she thinks a crime was committed against her or by an individual, she should be reporting it to the police and giving evidence in court in a trial. Not on prime time TV. Trial by television is abhorrent and unfair. People can prepare and rehearse their stories. This is not testimony, properly tested and challenged and corroborated, in any sense.
    I have no idea who is or is not telling the truth. But I do know that this is not the way to find out the truth about what Epstein did or to take the appropriate legal action against others who may have committed criminal acts. And even Andrew, dim as he appears to be, deserves the benefit of the law.
    She did - she reported it to The Met. Who did nothing. It was in the documentary.
    She reported what alleged crime, exactly, committed by whom, allegedly, in Britain?
    Because - and God knows I am no fan of the police - having sex with a 17 year old is not a crime in Britain.
    PS I have been out this evening so have not watched the programme.
    Trafficking humans for prostitution is thankfully still illegal in Britain. This is the crime which was reported. She alleges that she was trafficked by Maxwell and Epstein, and forced to have sex with Andrew. So, at best, he is a key witness to a very serious crime.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,925
    Mortimer said:

    This focus group is fascinating. It tallies EXACTLY with the rumours I'm hearing in the West Midlands, NE and even the NW.

    What focus group is this?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    This focus group is fascinating. It tallies EXACTLY with the rumours I'm hearing in the West Midlands, NE and even the NW.

    What focus group is this?
    https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave

    Birmingham Northfield.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited December 2019
    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    Maybe Labour will have to hastily arrange a press conference where the journos give back the copies to nurses?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,925

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    This focus group is fascinating. It tallies EXACTLY with the rumours I'm hearing in the West Midlands, NE and even the NW.

    What focus group is this?
    https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave

    Birmingham Northfield.
    Thanks. I'll have a look. :D
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    Floater said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7748667/Asda-hits-Jeremy-Corbyn-accuses-exploiting-workforce.html

    I have a son who has been supported by Asda far more than I would have expected with his battles against OCD and anxiety.

    The State sector on the other hand with my youngest .....

    Don't get me started

    That video earlier today of the Richard Branson look alike was so depressing. The hostility and resentment it’s designed to generate makes me fear what kind of society are we going to end up, naked unashamed class war being fermented in front of our eyes.
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
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    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    This focus group is fascinating. It tallies EXACTLY with the rumours I'm hearing in the West Midlands, NE and even the NW.

    What focus group is this?
    https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave

    Birmingham Northfield.
    Thanks. I'll have a look. :D
    It is a gobsmacker. If that is being repeated across key marginals, it is goodnight Vienna for Jezza.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Keep an eye out for Trump wearing a gag with a Tory party logo on it.
    The thing to gag is his Twitter account......
  • Options
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?

    Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
    Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
    Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
    What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
    Nope.
    Most of the obvious campaining around Broxtowe ward has been by Labour, I've had one flyer from Anna Soubry and that's it. But then that was true in 2017 and she won.
    Which bit do you live in? Beeston is very much a Labour town and it's easy to put up a convincing show there, but the hinterland - Nuthall, Greasley, Trowell -is spread out and campaigning there is largely invisible.

    My contacts say, like the MRP poll, that Soubry's campaign is falling well short, partly for lack of organisation (she has some local celeb support, but the LibDems footsoldiers are not very keen), as well as the entrenched strength of the Tory and Labour armies, who have been fighting the seat tooth and nail in every election since 1997. With contact rates north of 50%, both parties know exactly where their potential supporters and waverers are.

    The Tories are favourites, because Soubry as an arch-Remainer is taking more from Labour - the Labour vote there is heavily Remain even though the constituency voted Leave. On the other hand, the Labour candidate is lifelong local, while the Tory is entirely new. I'm going up on Friday to help for the rest of the election but I expect it to be tough.
    Beeston, near the tram line. I pass by the local Labour office here every day, I shall wave towards it on friday.
    I have not decided whom to vote for yet tbh, but I am not impressed with Labour or the Tories currently. One more massive spending promise from Labour knocks them out entirely.
    After discussion with my daughter she has decided to register at her University Halls which are in the Broxtowe constituency and vote there rather than at home which is a safe Tory seat. Her aim is to add at least one vote to the Tory ticket and hopefully see the back of Soubry.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,505
    Foxy said:


    twitter.com/PrisonPlanet/status/1021886560399237120?s=20

    Oh no they're not.
    Stand up comedy at the moment is absolutely shit all round. The likes of Romesh Ranganathan are the big stars, their gags are just so tame and dull, and his sitcom is even worse.
    Olga Koch is pretty good, and Katherine Ryan is great live.
    Ha ha - Katherine Ryan is perhaps the one comedian I like less than Nish Kumar.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    If the dossier is shown to be a hoax or Russian disinformation, Labour is toasted.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The government hasn’t refuted the NHS dossier . The meetings took place . Their view is that there’s no smoking gun in the dossier .

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    Whisper this quietly but Ashfield looks like a nailed-on Con gain.

    I got the train there once. Just looked it up. It had a 22,000 lab majority In 1997... looks like in 2015 all the Brexity vote went to UKIP, sure that isn’t going to happen again ?
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,925

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    This focus group is fascinating. It tallies EXACTLY with the rumours I'm hearing in the West Midlands, NE and even the NW.

    What focus group is this?
    https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave

    Birmingham Northfield.
    Thanks. I'll have a look. :D
    It is a gobsmacker. If that is being repeated across key marginals, it is goodnight Vienna for Jezza.
    That was an entertaining watch,
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,505
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?

    Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
    Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
    Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
    What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
    Nope.
    Most of the obvious campaining around Broxtowe ward has been by Labour, I've had one flyer from Anna Soubry and that's it. But then that was true in 2017 and she won.
    Which bit do you live in? Beeston is very much a Labour town and it's easy to put up a convincing show there, but the hinterland - Nuthall, Greasley, Trowell -is spread out and campaigning there is largely invisible.

    My contacts say, like the MRP poll, that Soubry's campaign is falling well short, partly for lack of organisation (she has some local celeb support, but the LibDems footsoldiers are not very keen), as well as the entrenched strength of the Tory and Labour armies, who have been fighting the seat tooth and nail in every election since 1997. With contact rates north of 50%, both parties know exactly where their potential supporters and waverers are.

    The Tories are favourites, because Soubry as an arch-Remainer is taking more from Labour - the Labour vote there is heavily Remain even though the constituency voted Leave. On the other hand, the Labour candidate is lifelong local, while the Tory is entirely new. I'm going up on Friday to help for the rest of the election but I expect it to be tough.
    Beeston, near the tram line. I pass by the local Labour office here every day, I shall wave towards it on friday.
    I have not decided whom to vote for yet tbh, but I am not impressed with Labour or the Tories currently. One more massive spending promise from Labour knocks them out entirely.
    Harold, I used to live very near you - just behind the Hop Pole.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Is that report into the links between the Tories and Russia also a hoax?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,175
    edited December 2019
    Hugh Grant certainly getting around this election https://twitter.com/DominicGrieve1/status/1201575577943236609?s=20
  • Options

    If the dossier is shown to be a hoax or Russian disinformation, Labour is toasted.

    Is that report into the links between the Tories and Russia also a hoax?
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,230

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
    I am going to make myself unpopular I know.
    But here goes anyway: so was Carl Beech.
    If she thinks a crime was committed against her or by an individual, she should be reporting it to the police and giving evidence in court in a trial. Not on prime time TV. Trial by television is abhorrent and unfair. People can prepare and rehearse their stories. This is not testimony, properly tested and challenged and corroborated, in any sense.
    I have no idea who is or is not telling the truth. But I do know that this is not the way to find out the truth about what Epstein did or to take the appropriate legal action against others who may have committed criminal acts. And even Andrew, dim as he appears to be, deserves the benefit of the law.
    She did - she reported it to The Met. Who did nothing. It was in the documentary.
    She reported what alleged crime, exactly, committed by whom, allegedly, in Britain?
    Because - and God knows I am no fan of the police - having sex with a 17 year old is not a crime in Britain.
    PS I have been out this evening so have not watched the programme.
    Trafficking humans for prostitution is thankfully still illegal in Britain. This is the crime which was reported. She alleges that she was trafficked by Maxwell and Epstein, and forced to have sex with Andrew. So, at best, he is a key witness to a very serious crime.
    Thank you. The allegation then is against one dead person and one person whose whereabouts are unknown but last living in the US. The obligation to investigate would appear to be on the US authorities, with any necessary help from the UK authorities.
    Andrew may be a witness - possibly - depending on whether he knew of the trafficking or that she was not really willing (he denies any sexual encounter). But witnesses are not usually investigated as suspects.
    Trying to investigate matters such as these is a complicated and delicate business and is not helped - indeed is often actively harmed - by people telling stories in television, not least because it means that the credibility of any evidence they do eventually give can much more easily be attacked and may mean that a prosecution does not go ahead if prosecutors feel the evidential burden has not been met.
    It certainly makes for sensational TV and news stories and blackening a person’s character. But let’s not kid ourselves that it has anything to do with the rule of law, proper investigations or fair trials.
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    It’s also being reported by Reuters.
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    Completely OT but proof that all levels of Government can fall victim to the lack of joined up thinking if they try really hard.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/bristol-council-diesel-ban-van-taxpayers-air-pollution-1328852?fbclid=IwAR02jHWtlQC1whaLtgBptph7qcKkPbkJzio6tHEctrN1i8sdqZB0M2hpBuY
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1Y6206

    It's Reuters doing the running, they likely give zero fucks about anything that happens here.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,963

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    This focus group is fascinating. It tallies EXACTLY with the rumours I'm hearing in the West Midlands, NE and even the NW.

    What focus group is this?
    https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave

    Birmingham Northfield.
    Thanks. I'll have a look. :D
    It is a gobsmacker. If that is being repeated across key marginals, it is goodnight Vienna for Jezza.
    As somebody who has viewed many, many focus groups from behind the glass screen, I would take it with a pinch of salt.

    Firstly, the sample of people are all people who have already abandoned Labour. For all we know, they are the only half dozen or so people in the constituency who have done so. It is not a representative sample.

    Secondly, when you get people in a room like that who all share a certain opinion (Jezza is sh*t), and the focus group is built around that, it will be harder for people to express nuance "I don't like him but he's not that bad on the trains" for example. With most people there is usually a "but". But in certain conditions, unless the interviewer is very good at reading the room and the body language, that "but" can often stay silent.

    Thirdly and finally what people say and what they do are often completely different things. A while back I was asked to run an ad campaign through a focus group as a favour to someone, as the people being focus grouped were the exact demographic. Without exception they all said it was the worst ad they had ever seen. That ad went on to be one of the most successful (in terms of sales figures) the company had ever seen. We later surmised it was because the ad was quite rude, and people felt they needed to express dislike of it to their peer group even though in private they were amused by it. People may be feeling a need to express their dislike for Corbyn. That doesn't mean they won't vote for him.

    Beware the focus group.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    It’s also being reported by Reuters.
    If they were fake then the Tories could have said so at the time . So clearly they’re not . Why would they let the story carry on for this long .

    This is the DT trying to help Bozo by trying to confuse matters . If Johnson wants to bring this up in the debate then fine , but then he can also answer why he refused to publish the Russian report .

  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,505

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    More perplexing that Labour made something that cropped up on social media into a major element of their campaign.
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
    She did - she reported it to The Met. Who did nothing. It was in the documentary.
    She reported what alleged crime, exactly, committed by whom, allegedly, in Britain?
    Because - and God knows I am no fan of the police - having sex with a 17 year old is not a crime in Britain.
    PS I have been out this evening so have not watched the programme.
    Trafficking humans for prostitution is thankfully still illegal in Britain. This is the crime which was reported. She alleges that she was trafficked by Maxwell and Epstein, and forced to have sex with Andrew. So, at best, he is a key witness to a very serious crime.
    Thank you. The allegation then is against one dead person and one person whose whereabouts are unknown but last living in the US. The obligation to investigate would appear to be on the US authorities, with any necessary help from the UK authorities.
    Andrew may be a witness - possibly - depending on whether he knew of the trafficking or that she was not really willing (he denies any sexual encounter). But witnesses are not usually investigated as suspects.
    Trying to investigate matters such as these is a complicated and delicate business and is not helped - indeed is often actively harmed - by people telling stories in television, not least because it means that the credibility of any evidence they do eventually give can much more easily be attacked and may mean that a prosecution does not go ahead if prosecutors feel the evidential burden has not been met.
    It certainly makes for sensational TV and news stories and blackening a person’s character. But let’s not kid ourselves that it has anything to do with the rule of law, proper investigations or fair trials.
    The allegation in this particular instance is that she was trafficked to the UK by Ghislane Maxwell, where she was forced to have sex against her will, in Maxwell's house in London.

    Therefore, the Met should have investigated it. The alleged crime took place here.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    More perplexing that Labour made something that cropped up on social media into a major element of their campaign.
    Desperation. If it is it seems, they got played by some guys who knew exactly what they would fall for.....because they have nothing else.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
    I have no idea who is or is not telling the truth. But I do know that this is not the way to find out the truth about what Epstein did or to take the appropriate legal action against others who may have committed criminal acts. And even Andrew, dim as he appears to be, deserves the benefit of the law.
    She did - she reported it to The Met. Who did nothing. It was in the documentary.
    She reported what alleged crime, exactly, committed by whom, allegedly, in Britain?
    Because - and God knows I am no fan of the police - having sex with a 17 year old is not a crime in Britain.
    PS I have been out this evening so have not watched the programme.
    Trafficking humans for prostitution is thankfully still illegal in Britain. This is the crime which was reported. She alleges that she was trafficked by Maxwell and Epstein, and forced to have sex with Andrew. So, at best, he is a key witness to a very serious crime.
    Thank you. The allegation then is against one dead person and one person whose whereabouts are unknown but last living in the US. The obligation to investigate would appear to be on the US authorities, with any necessary help from the UK authorities.
    Andrew may be a witness - possibly - depending on whether he knew of the trafficking or that she was not really willing (he denies any sexual encounter). But witnesses are not usually investigated as suspects.
    Trying to investigate matters such as these is a complicated and delicate business and is not helped - indeed is often actively harmed - by people telling stories in television, not least because it means that the credibility of any evidence they do eventually give can much more easily be attacked and may mean that a prosecution does not go ahead if prosecutors feel the evidential burden has not been met.
    It certainly makes for sensational TV and news stories and blackening a person’s character. But let’s not kid ourselves that it has anything to do with the rule of law, proper investigations or fair trials.
    No, let’s not kid ourselves that this girl is likely to have the remotest chance of the rule of law being applied to the Queen of England’s son
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,230

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Guardian now running with it online
  • Options
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?

    Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
    Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
    Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
    What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
    Nope.
    Most of the obvious campaining around Broxtowe ward has been by Labour, I've had one flyer from Anna Soubry and that's it. But then that was true in 2017 and she won.
    Which bit do you live in? Beeston is very much a Labour town and it's easy to put up a convincing show there, but the hinterland - Nuthall, Greasley, Trowell -is spread out and campaigning there is largely invisible.

    My contacts say, like the MRP poll, that Soubry's campaign is falling well short, partly for lack of organisation (she has some local celeb support, but the LibDems footsoldiers are not very keen), as well as the entrenched strength of the Tory and Labour armies, who have been fighting the seat tooth and nail in every election since 1997. With contact rates north of 50%, both parties know exactly where their potential supporters and waverers are.

    The Tories are favourites, because Soubry as an arch-Remainer is taking more from Labour - the Labour vote there is heavily Remain even though the constituency voted Leave. On the other hand, the Labour candidate is lifelong local, while the Tory is entirely new. I'm going up on Friday to help for the rest of the election but I expect it to be tough.
    Beeston, near the tram line. I pass by the local Labour office here every day, I shall wave towards it on friday.
    I have not decided whom to vote for yet tbh, but I am not impressed with Labour or the Tories currently. One more massive spending promise from Labour knocks them out entirely.
    You're voting tory
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Well he’s not going to as the government have confirmed meetings took place .
  • Options

    Completely OT but proof that all levels of Government can fall victim to the lack of joined up thinking if they try really hard.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/bristol-council-diesel-ban-van-taxpayers-air-pollution-1328852?fbclid=IwAR02jHWtlQC1whaLtgBptph7qcKkPbkJzio6tHEctrN1i8sdqZB0M2hpBuY

    “Carbon neutral by 2025” it’s what happens when dingbat councillors allow children to tell them what to do. You can imagine the competitive out virtuing. “The climate change panel said 2050, but we can be much better, let’s do it by 2030 instead”
    “But 2030? This is an emergency/crisis, lets go carbon neutral by 2025 instead.”

    Of course they won’t be able to. By 2025 they might have managed to stop using plastic straws and put a few solar panels up, and define this as ‘success’.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Guardian now running with it online
    Are The Guardian also "making up rubbish to help Bozo"?
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Guardian now running with it online
    Just read it, if this story heads the way it might then Labour are toast. There really is no gain for the Tories to sell off the Sacred cow that is the NHS so it always was a scare story, but if Labour have been mugged off by the Russian bogeymen then that would be hilarious. A story worth watching over the next 24 hours.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    glw said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Guardian now running with it online
    Are The Guardian also "making up rubbish to help Bozo"?
    The issue isn’t whether the documents are genuine but how they came to be on the net .

  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,040

    Floater said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7748667/Asda-hits-Jeremy-Corbyn-accuses-exploiting-workforce.html

    I have a son who has been supported by Asda far more than I would have expected with his battles against OCD and anxiety.

    The State sector on the other hand with my youngest .....

    Don't get me started

    That video earlier today of the Richard Branson look alike was so depressing. The hostility and resentment it’s designed to generate makes me fear what kind of society are we going to end up, naked unashamed class war being fermented in front of our eyes.
    It's funny how it's only class war when the poor fight back.
  • Options
    Dura_Ace said:

    Floater said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7748667/Asda-hits-Jeremy-Corbyn-accuses-exploiting-workforce.html

    I have a son who has been supported by Asda far more than I would have expected with his battles against OCD and anxiety.

    The State sector on the other hand with my youngest .....

    Don't get me started

    That video earlier today of the Richard Branson look alike was so depressing. The hostility and resentment it’s designed to generate makes me fear what kind of society are we going to end up, naked unashamed class war being fermented in front of our eyes.
    It's funny how it's only class war when the poor fight back.
    It’s ugly and you should call it out for what it is. And it’s isn’t the ‘poor fighting back’ it’s a well funded political party hoping to get control of the levers of the state.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,230

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:
    Trafficking humans for prostitution is thankfully still illegal in Britain. This is the crime which was reported. She alleges that she was trafficked by Maxwell and Epstein, and forced to have sex with Andrew. So, at best, he is a key witness to a very serious crime.
    Thank you. The allegation then is against one dead person and one person whose whereabouts are unknown but last living in the US. The obligation to investigate would appear to be on the US authorities, with any necessary help from the UK authorities.
    Andrew may be a witness - possibly - depending on whether he knew of the trafficking or that she was not really willing (he denies any sexual encounter). But witnesses are not usually investigated as suspects.
    Trying to investigate matters such as these is a complicated and delicate business and is not helped - indeed is often actively harmed - by people telling stories in television, not least because it means that the credibility of any evidence they do eventually give can much more easily be attacked and may mean that a prosecution does not go ahead if prosecutors feel the evidential burden has not been met.
    It certainly makes for sensational TV and news stories and blackening a person’s character. But let’s not kid ourselves that it has anything to do with the rule of law, proper investigations or fair trials.
    The allegation in this particular instance is that she was trafficked to the UK by Ghislane Maxwell, where she was forced to have sex against her will, in Maxwell's house in London.

    Therefore, the Met should have investigated it. The alleged crime took place here.
    OK thanks. I think that one would have to look at what acts were done where and the precise requirements of the relevant legislation to work out where the trafficking took place. What is the evidence that the Met is not doing any investigation or not co-operating with the US authorities? In cross-jurisdictional cases there is often a lead investigator.
    I am a little puzzled by the allegation about being forced to have sex. Sex without consent is rape. Is she alleging that Andrew raped her?
    All these complexities and questions are, to my mind, precisely, why what makes for good TV does not make for good investigations. In my experience TV programmes very rarely report legal matters or investigations well. The last one that got anywhere close was one on miscarriages of justice a few years back.
  • Options
    nico67 said:

    glw said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Guardian now running with it online
    Are The Guardian also "making up rubbish to help Bozo"?
    The issue isn’t whether the documents are genuine but how they came to be on the net .

    Actually the Reuters report claims that the normal modus operandi of the group concerned is to put false or altered documents into the public domain. So yes, the issue may (and I do only say may) be that the documents are falsified in some way.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Dura_Ace said:

    Floater said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7748667/Asda-hits-Jeremy-Corbyn-accuses-exploiting-workforce.html

    I have a son who has been supported by Asda far more than I would have expected with his battles against OCD and anxiety.

    The State sector on the other hand with my youngest .....

    Don't get me started

    That video earlier today of the Richard Branson look alike was so depressing. The hostility and resentment it’s designed to generate makes me fear what kind of society are we going to end up, naked unashamed class war being fermented in front of our eyes.
    It's funny how it's only class war when the poor fight back.
    Jeremy isn't poor. Neither are most Labour activists or their celebrity pals.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,175
    Dura_Ace said:

    Floater said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7748667/Asda-hits-Jeremy-Corbyn-accuses-exploiting-workforce.html

    I have a son who has been supported by Asda far more than I would have expected with his battles against OCD and anxiety.

    The State sector on the other hand with my youngest .....

    Don't get me started

    That video earlier today of the Richard Branson look alike was so depressing. The hostility and resentment it’s designed to generate makes me fear what kind of society are we going to end up, naked unashamed class war being fermented in front of our eyes.
    It's funny how it's only class war when the poor fight back.
    Far more of the poor will be voting for Boris next week than attending a Corbyn class war rally
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,230
    moonshine said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
    I have no idea who is or is not telling the truth. But I do know that this is not the way to find out the truth about what Epstein did or to take the appropriate legal action against others who may have committed criminal acts. And even Andrew, dim as he appears to be, deserves the benefit of the law.
    She did - she reported it to The Met. Who did nothing. It was in the documentary.
    She reported what alleged crime, exactly, committed by whom, allegedly, in Britain?
    Because - and God knows I am no fan of the police - having sex with a 17 year old is not a crime in Britain.
    PS I have been out this evening so have not watched the programme.
    Trafficking humans for prostitution is thankfully still illegal in Britain. This is the crime which was reported. She alleges that she was trafficked by Maxwell and Epstein, and forced to have sex with Andrew. So, at best, he is a key witness to a very serious crime.
    Thank you. The allegation then is against one dead person and one person whose whereabouts are unknown but last living in the US. The obligation to investigate would appear to be on the US authorities, with any necessary help from the UK authorities.
    Andrew may be a witness - possibly - depending on whether he knew of the trafficking or that she was not really willing (he denies any sexual encounter). But witnesses are not usually investigated as suspects.
    Trying to investigate matters such as these is a complicated and delicate business and is not helped - indeed is often actively harmed - by people telling stories in television, not least because it means that the credibility of any evidence they do eventually give can much more easily be attacked and may mean that a prosecution does not go ahead if prosecutors feel the evidential burden has not been met.
    It certainly makes for sensational TV and news stories and blackening a person’s character. But let’s not kid ourselves that it has anything to do with the rule of law, proper investigations or fair trials.
    No, let’s not kid ourselves that this girl is likely to have the remotest chance of the rule of law being applied to the Queen of England’s son
    You are assuming what has yet to be proved.

    Lord McAlpine and Harvey Proctor send their best regards, by the way.
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    nico67 said:

    glw said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Guardian now running with it online
    Are The Guardian also "making up rubbish to help Bozo"?
    The issue isn’t whether the documents are genuine but how they came to be on the net .

    Actually the Reuters report claims that the normal modus operandi of the group concerned is to put false or altered documents into the public domain. So yes, the issue may (and I do only say may) be that the documents are falsified in some way.
    The Labour response to the Guardian article is truly shameful. They are refusing to confirm where they got them and pushing the original narrative. They actively don't care that the Russians are meddling in our democracy, just like Trump did.

    I guess that is to be expected from a man willing to regularly go on Russia Today.
  • Options
    Hmm
    nico67 said:

    glw said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Guardian now running with it online
    Are The Guardian also "making up rubbish to help Bozo"?
    The issue isn’t whether the documents are genuine but how they came to be on the net .

    Were I the Tories, I wouldn’t exactly run with this. The content of these documents is a complete non-event and doesn’t say what Labour says it does. Bringing it back in the news and letting folk think the Russians unearthed “explosive revelations” about “secret Tory plan” doesn’t sound evenly clever.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    This focus group is fascinating. It tallies EXACTLY with the rumours I'm hearing in the West Midlands, NE and even the NW.

    What focus group is this?
    https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave

    Birmingham Northfield.
    Thanks. I'll have a look. :D
    It is a gobsmacker. If that is being repeated across key marginals, it is goodnight Vienna for Jezza.
    That was an entertaining watch,
    Wow, didn't realize just how unpopular Corbyn was in these marginals,no wonder the bribes get bigger each week.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    This focus group is fascinating. It tallies EXACTLY with the rumours I'm hearing in the West Midlands, NE and even the NW.

    What focus group is this?
    https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave

    Birmingham Northfield.
    Thanks. I'll have a look. :D
    It is a gobsmacker. If that is being repeated across key marginals, it is goodnight Vienna for Jezza.
    That was an entertaining watch,
    Wow, didn't realize just how unpopular Corbyn was in these marginals,no wonder the bribes get bigger each week.
    "whose thinking of voting Labour again"


    Tumbleweed

    Heart of stone etc
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I might be wrong (wouldn’t be the first time), but I feel incredibly buoyant tonight that there is a public backlash to Corbyn and that in the marginals they are really struggling. I’m just picking up a mood from various bits and pieces. It doesn’t feel like 2017 to me and perhaps Boris being the new kid on the block compared to Jeremy is one reason for that. I still have the election being a roughly 43/37 6 point gap, but using just my heart I feel things shifting the Tories way just over 1 week out.

    Of course it could just be the wine..,
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Brom said:

    I might be wrong (wouldn’t be the first time), but I feel incredibly buoyant tonight that there is a public backlash to Corbyn and that in the marginals they are really struggling. I’m just picking up a mood from various bits and pieces. It doesn’t feel like 2017 to me and perhaps Boris being the new kid on the block compared to Jeremy is one reason for that. I still have the election being a roughly 43/37 6 point gap, but using just my heart I feel things shifting the Tories way just over 1 week out.

    Of course it could just be the wine..,

    I feel same way - those focus groups are brutal
  • Options
    kjohnw1kjohnw1 Posts: 95
    edited December 2019
    Brom said:

    I might be wrong (wouldn’t be the first time), but I feel incredibly buoyant tonight that there is a public backlash to Corbyn and that in the marginals they are really struggling. I’m just picking up a mood from various bits and pieces. It doesn’t feel like 2017 to me and perhaps Boris being the new kid on the block compared to Jeremy is one reason for that. I still have the election being a roughly 43/37 6 point gap, but using just my heart I feel things shifting the Tories way just over 1 week out.

    Of course it could just be the wine..,

    I think the channel 4 video echoes what is taking place in the 66% of English And Welsh constituencies that voted leave . Corbyn has toxified the Labour Brand , and Boris is trusted on Brexit now to deliver it . Game Set and Match to the Tories . This election is done
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Dura_Ace said:

    Floater said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7748667/Asda-hits-Jeremy-Corbyn-accuses-exploiting-workforce.html

    I have a son who has been supported by Asda far more than I would have expected with his battles against OCD and anxiety.

    The State sector on the other hand with my youngest .....

    Don't get me started

    That video earlier today of the Richard Branson look alike was so depressing. The hostility and resentment it’s designed to generate makes me fear what kind of society are we going to end up, naked unashamed class war being fermented in front of our eyes.
    It's funny how it's only class war when the poor fight back.
    Corbyn is poor?

    Don't make me laugh

    Corbyn and his ilk will destroy the lives of the poor - those better off have a cushion and the rich can ride it out or leave.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Well he’s not going to as the government have confirmed meetings took place .
    Of course meetings took place - are you dense or dishonest?
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Brom said:

    I might be wrong (wouldn’t be the first time), but I feel incredibly buoyant tonight that there is a public backlash to Corbyn and that in the marginals they are really struggling. I’m just picking up a mood from various bits and pieces. It doesn’t feel like 2017 to me and perhaps Boris being the new kid on the block compared to Jeremy is one reason for that. I still have the election being a roughly 43/37 6 point gap, but using just my heart I feel things shifting the Tories way just over 1 week out.

    Of course it could just be the wine..,

    I have always had faith that the Great British electorate can spot a posh socialist twat at 5,000 yards and act appropriately. The leader ratings have been the tell that I have focused on and remained calm when they have not moved.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Floater said:

    Brom said:

    I might be wrong (wouldn’t be the first time), but I feel incredibly buoyant tonight that there is a public backlash to Corbyn and that in the marginals they are really struggling. I’m just picking up a mood from various bits and pieces. It doesn’t feel like 2017 to me and perhaps Boris being the new kid on the block compared to Jeremy is one reason for that. I still have the election being a roughly 43/37 6 point gap, but using just my heart I feel things shifting the Tories way just over 1 week out.

    Of course it could just be the wine..,

    I feel same way - those focus groups are brutal
    Yes they are, I go on social media, the bbc, itv, mumsnet, football forums, wherever you can see the comments from outside the activist base. I think with the exception of Twitter (which is home territory) he seems incredibly unpopular almost to the point where he is a bit of a figure of fun. Once you are at that stage it is very difficult to reinvent yourself as a serious leader, (just ask David Steel!). So many of his votes are ‘in spite’ rather than because of him, I just think he’s swimming against the tide.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    LOL. Seriously?
  • Options

    What happened?

    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.

    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?

    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .

    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."

    Guardian now running with it online

    Are The Guardian also "making up rubbish to help Bozo"?

    The issue isn’t whether the documents are genuine but how they came to be on the net .



    When in a hole....
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995




    When in a hole....

    Quite. Of course it matters if they are genuine or not lol.
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    My old stomping ground, B'ham Northfield, on Ch4 with a focus group.

    Looks very bad for Labour.

    https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave

    Yes that chimes with all the Vox Pops in the papers.

    Labour are losing their English heartlands to the Tories, and on a large scale.

    This is how Boris will - perhaps - get a majority without a very large lead in votes. Wealthy southern England will stay loyal because Corbyn. Unionist Scotland will stay Tory because Union. The southwest will stay Tory because Leave. Wales is a toss-up. But Boris will win enough red seats in the Midlands and the North to get a majority. And we shall Brexit. I reckon.
    Yes it is the Trump factor, Yougov MRP had 44 mainly Leave seats going Tory much like the rustbelt went for Trump as the swing was biggest with the white working class (same story in Australia where the white working class in Queensland won it for Morrison).

    Look at this map, huge Tory gains North of Watford, barely any in the South and London


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199812713100263424?s=20
    If the Tories win thanks to these voters, what will they actually do to help them lead better lives? Do they just plan to follow the Republican strategy of letting them get poorer and angrier every year, and hope that the anger and resentment blinds them to the fact the Republicans really don't give a shit about them? Because if that's the way we're going I'm not sure I want to live here much longer.
    My feeling is that in the North there are a lot of people with right of centre views who have nevertheless voted Labour because of the legacy of thatcher. We have heard talk here about a sort of gateway drug situation with the Brexit Party or UKIP.

    The question this leads me to is are the pollsters able to model such behaviour from their panels? Prior to the EU referendum there were far more polls showing remain with over 50% support than leave, and most of the last polls with reduced don’t knows skewed remain.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Floater said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Well he’s not going to as the government have confirmed meetings took place .
    Of course meetings took place - are you dense or dishonest?
    I think you’re the one being dense . Please point me to where the government stated last week that the documents are fake , the article doesn’t state they’re fake but the questions are how they came to be leaked .

    If the government wants to now say they’re fakes then they should do so and then they can also answer why they refuse to release the Russian report .

  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245
    Cyclefree said:

    moonshine said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
    I have no idea who is or is not telling the truth. But I do know that this is not the way to find out the truth about what Epstein did or to take the appropriate legal action against others who may have committed criminal acts. And even Andrew, dim as he appears to be, deserves the benefit of the law.
    She did - she reported it to The Met. Who did nothing. It was in the documentary.
    She reported what alleged crime, exactly, committed by whom, allegedly, in Britain?
    Because - and God knows I am no fan of the police - having sex with a 17 year old is not a crime in Britain.
    PS I have been out this evening so have not watched the programme.
    Trafficking humans for prostitution is thankfully still illegal in Britain. This is the crime which was reported. She alleges that she was trafficked by Maxwell and Epstein, and forced to have sex with Andrew. So, at best, he is a key witness to a very serious crime.
    Trying to investigate matters such as these is a complicated and delicate business and is not helped - indeed is often actively harmed - by people telling stories in television, not least because it means that the credibility of any evidence they do eventually give can much more easily be attacked and may mean that a prosecution does not go ahead if prosecutors feel the evidential burden has not been met.
    It certainly makes for sensational TV and news stories and blackening a person’s character. But let’s not kid ourselves that it has anything to do with the rule of law, proper investigations or fair trials.
    No, let’s not kid ourselves that this girl is likely to have the remotest chance of the rule of law being applied to the Queen of England’s son
    You are assuming what has yet to be proved.

    Lord McAlpine and Harvey Proctor send their best regards, by the way.
    I am not assuming anything other than that if this girl is telling the truth, the only way she’ll get legal redress is by first resorting to trial by media. It is naive in the extreme to think otherwise.
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    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    nico67 said:


    Floater said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Well he’s not going to as the government have confirmed meetings took place .
    Of course meetings took place - are you dense or dishonest?
    I think you’re the one being dense . Please point me to where the government stated last week that the documents are fake , the article doesn’t state they’re fake but the questions are how they came to be leaked .

    If the government wants to now say they’re fakes then they should do so and then they can also answer why they refuse to release the Russian report .

    Given how nothingy the contents of the dodgy dossier are, I suspect it is real. But the important question is how complicit Labour was with the Russian meddling in British elections. Were they just naive and played for fools, or did they know whose help they were taking?
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    edited December 2019
    Brom said:

    Floater said:

    Brom said:

    I might be wrong (wouldn’t be the first time), but I feel incredibly buoyant tonight that there is a public backlash to Corbyn and that in the marginals they are really struggling. I’m just picking up a mood from various bits and pieces. It doesn’t feel like 2017 to me and perhaps Boris being the new kid on the block compared to Jeremy is one reason for that. I still have the election being a roughly 43/37 6 point gap, but using just my heart I feel things shifting the Tories way just over 1 week out.

    Of course it could just be the wine..,

    I feel same way - those focus groups are brutal
    Yes they are, I go on social media, the bbc, itv, mumsnet, football forums, wherever you can see the comments from outside the activist base. I think with the exception of Twitter (which is home territory) he seems incredibly unpopular almost to the point where he is a bit of a figure of fun. Once you are at that stage it is very difficult to reinvent yourself as a serious leader, (just ask David Steel!). So many of his votes are ‘in spite’ rather than because of him, I just think he’s swimming against the tide.
    The commentariat are almost solely based in Remainia which is breaking towards Labour at around 45%. In Leavistan it is breaking +70 to the Tories. If you want to understand the difference may I suggest you listen to side by side to remoaner in chief James O brien on LBC and bonkers Brexiteer Mike Graham on Talk Radio. I really like LBC aside from JO’B and Farage.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Gabs3 said:

    nico67 said:


    Floater said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Well he’s not going to as the government have confirmed meetings took place .
    Of course meetings took place - are you dense or dishonest?
    I think you’re the one being dense . Please point me to where the government stated last week that the documents are fake , the article doesn’t state they’re fake but the questions are how they came to be leaked .

    If the government wants to now say they’re fakes then they should do so and then they can also answer why they refuse to release the Russian report .

    Given how nothingy the contents of the dodgy dossier are, I suspect it is real. But the important question is how complicit Labour was with the Russian meddling in British elections. Were they just naive and played for fools, or did they know whose help they were taking?
    Why would Russia want to help Labour . They want the UK definitely out of the EU and helping Labour would seem a strange move .

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited December 2019
    nico67 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nico67 said:


    Floater said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Well he’s not going to as the government have confirmed meetings took place .
    Of course meetings took place - are you dense or dishonest?
    I think you’re the one being dense . Please point me to where the government stated last week that the documents are fake , the article doesn’t state they’re fake but the questions are how they came to be leaked .

    If the government wants to now say they’re fakes then they should do so and then they can also answer why they refuse to release the Russian report .

    Given how nothingy the contents of the dodgy dossier are, I suspect it is real. But the important question is how complicit Labour was with the Russian meddling in British elections. Were they just naive and played for fools, or did they know whose help they were taking?
    Why would Russia want to help Labour . They want the UK definitely out of the EU and helping Labour would seem a strange move .

    Russia don't care about Brexit as such, they want chaos and division. A hung parliament would means years more impotent government with little prospect of any resolution one way or another.

    If Jezza won by some miracle, they get a man who doesn't like NATO (just like Trump) as well as continued Brexit chaos.

    If you knew anything about the US elections, you would know they didn't just "back Trump", they just caused mayhem from years before Trump even announced. I am not sure they thought Trump would actually get elected, a massively weakened and comprised Clinton plus loads of division in society was just as good .
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,025
    viewcode said:

    Regarding the ongoing discussion about guards on trains.
    Due to a combination of strike action, signalling problems, maintenance work and a fatality, it looked at some point tonight that I might not reach my destination. During this period the guards tried to help by suggesting alternate routes or nearby hotels. This prevented an annoying situation becoming a frightening and dangerous one (it's too cold to sleep in a station tonight) and although it still might end badly, it won't go frozen-corpse-in-the-morning-frost.
    So if anybody still believes that guards are superfluous, please take this as testimony to the contrary.

    The problem is the fact that many train companies in other parts of the country seem to operate perfectly well without guards, and haven't had guards for many years.
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    nico67 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nico67 said:


    Floater said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Well he’s not going to as the government have confirmed meetings took place .
    Of course meetings took place - are you dense or dishonest?
    I think you’re the one being dense . Please point me to where the government stated last week that the documents are fake , the article doesn’t state they’re fake but the questions are how they came to be leaked .

    If the government wants to now say they’re fakes then they should do so and then they can also answer why they refuse to release the Russian report .

    Given how nothingy the contents of the dodgy dossier are, I suspect it is real. But the important question is how complicit Labour was with the Russian meddling in British elections. Were they just naive and played for fools, or did they know whose help they were taking?
    Why would Russia want to help Labour . They want the UK definitely out of the EU and helping Labour would seem a strange move .

    Why would Russia want a British PM who has taken money to spout anti-Western messages on Russian propaganda outlets, who is against the British-American alliance, who spouted Russian talking points in Syria, and who refers to the terrorist proxies of Iran - a Russian ally - as his friends?

    It's a real mystery.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited December 2019
    Gabs3 said:

    nico67 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nico67 said:


    Floater said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nunu2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Wait did Labour not double, triple check the source?! Hopefully they are forced to retract it all.

    What happened?
    That NHS dossier might be a Russian hoax.
    Though makes you wonder why the government didn't say as much at the time?
    Because the DT is making up rubbish to help Bozo . Amazingly this article appears on the day Trump arrives in the UK .
    Double sourced. And imagine how bad it will be for Labour if Corbyn has to stand up and concede "Sorry, my bad, got taken in by those pesky Commies - the NHS is safe with the Tories after all...."
    Well he’s not going to as the government have confirmed meetings took place .
    Of course meetings took place - are you dense or dishonest?
    I think you’re the one being dense . Please point me to where the government stated last week that the documents are fake , the article doesn’t state they’re fake but the questions are how they came to be leaked .

    If the government wants to now say they’re fakes then they should do so and then they can also answer why they refuse to release the Russian report .

    Given how nothingy the contents of the dodgy dossier are, I suspect it is real. But the important question is how complicit Labour was with the Russian meddling in British elections. Were they just naive and played for fools, or did they know whose help they were taking?
    Why would Russia want to help Labour . They want the UK definitely out of the EU and helping Labour would seem a strange move .

    Why would Russia want a British PM who has taken money to spout anti-Western messages on Russian propaganda outlets, who is against the British-American alliance, who spouted Russian talking points in Syria, and who refers to the terrorist proxies of Iran - a Russian ally - as his friends?

    It's a real mystery.
    Would that be the same guy who refused to believe Russia assassinated citizens on UK soil using chemical weapons for weeks, despite the rest of the international community saying it was? And demanded we cooperate with them, send them all our intel and meet with Putin to discuss the situation?
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    Corbyn is trying to goad Trump into wading in, in the hope it’ll be bad for the Tories.
    No doubt No10 have advised against this. Will it work though?
    That is an extremely well made video. It's streets ahead of Corbyn's performance in the one-on-one TV debate.
    Worth pointing out that the Daily Mail are lying and he doesn't blame Trump for the terror attack. (When I read that, I assumed they were telling the truth - silly me - and my response was "Really? It'd be more accurate to blame Blair and Brown." But anyway.)

  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,439
    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    viewcode said:

    Regarding the ongoing discussion about guards on trains.
    Due to a combination of strike action, signalling problems, maintenance work and a fatality, it looked at some point tonight that I might not reach my destination. During this period the guards tried to help by suggesting alternate routes or nearby hotels. This prevented an annoying situation becoming a frightening and dangerous one (it's too cold to sleep in a station tonight) and although it still might end badly, it won't go frozen-corpse-in-the-morning-frost.
    So if anybody still believes that guards are superfluous, please take this as testimony to the contrary.

    One of the lesser known features of our train system is that the TOCs are pretty much obliged to get you to your final destination station if problems occur.
    I'll bear that in mind, thank you. In the event of it going genuinely bad, does one collar a guard and say "get me a taxi". In many cases if no trains are running there may be no alternative.
    Crosscountry once put me onto a taxi from Dundee to Aberdeen, arriving two hours after the last scheduled train of the day, due to various disruptions. The guard on the train organised this proactively for passengers north of Dundee.
    It was a beautiful clear night and I had a great view of the stars as well as a full refund of our tickets from Exeter.
    It would be interesting to know how much delays cost the network.
This discussion has been closed.