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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A suggested new cross-break for GE2019 pollsters – separate nu

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    You mean they aren't being placated with offers of free broadband and cheaper rail season tickets?
    Maybe they were stung by the WASPI pledge?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Right ... here we go :neutral:
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    nico67 said:

    What’s strange about this election . For all the talk of a Brexit election apart from the now cremated Get Brexit Done that’s it, absolutely nothing about the detail of what trading relationship the UK might have in the future .

    So I’m now bringing out .

    BEINO

    Brexit Election In Name Only !

    I've said it before and I'll say it again, if you can't even force a brexit referendum to be about, actually, brexit, what possible hope is there of having a brexit election? All national votes in the UK are in reality about the NHS, gawd bless it, and all who sail in it.
  • 5 more women want Prince Andrew to give evidence on sex trafficking
  • I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    As said previously, I know a guy who's doing a lot of campaigning etc in the Black Country and he is very confident. Well, was, about a week ago when we last chatted.
  • I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    If true this is very dangerous for Labour.

    The NE like Scotland was rock solid for the reds but if they get abandoned then there's little reason to think they will quickly return. The zeal of the convert can mean that once people move on they can be very hard to bring back once more.
  • timmo said:

    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close

    The Yougov MRP had him winning by 13% or around 6,500 votes. Not sure I believe this any more than Easington.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    In my old grandma's constituency of Dudley North, I can tell you that feeling is not unique to the North. Life long Labour voters switching to Tory, hurting them like hell to do it, but left with no choice because they see Corbyn as being the worst of 2 evils. Ian Austin's words early on in the election have stuck there.
  • timmo said:

    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close

    I find that hard to believe, though amusing that someone like Baker represents a Remain seat. Why the hell are the tragic farce known as UKIP standing in that of all seats?
  • Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I think that's it now for today. I am interested what caused the movement earlier.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I think that's it now for today. I am interested what caused the movement earlier.
    The movement in your bowels Francis?
  • timmo said:

    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close

    Stop it, you're killing me. It is too much to hope for.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    As said previously, I know a guy who's doing a lot of campaigning etc in the Black Country and he is very confident. Well, was, about a week ago when we last chatted.
    A week is a long time in politics...
  • ydoethur said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    As said previously, I know a guy who's doing a lot of campaigning etc in the Black Country and he is very confident. Well, was, about a week ago when we last chatted.
    A week is a long time in politics...
    yeah, if only I hadn't included precisely that caveat in the post.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I think that's it now for today. I am interested what caused the movement earlier.
    The movement in your bowels Francis?
    LOL....no Betfair...Tory majority jumped in 4 points and with quite a lot of volume, before somebody stuck over £100k of liquity into that market.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    timmo said:

    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close

    I find that hard to believe, though amusing that someone like Baker represents a Remain seat. Why the hell are the tragic farce known as UKIP standing in that of all seats?
    A quick glance tells me that the Labour candidate is local and focused on local issues.

    I'm surprised that A&E has moved to Stoke Mandeville - that's a long way to travel even before the traffic in rush hour.


  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I think that's it now for today. I am interested what caused the movement earlier.
    The movement in your bowels Francis?
    LOL....no Betfair...Tory majority jumped in 4 points and with quite a lot of volume, before somebody stuck over £100k of liquity into that market.
    Lol I know Francis.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I think that's it now for today. I am interested what caused the movement earlier.
    The movement in your bowels Francis?
    LOL....no Betfair...Tory majority jumped in 4 points and with quite a lot of volume, before somebody stuck over £100k of liquity into that market.
    Lol I know Francis.
  • TykeTyke Posts: 18
    NeilVW said:
    That list of seats is some rearguard action!
  • Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I think that's it now for today. I am interested what caused the movement earlier.
    The movement in your bowels Francis?
    LOL....no Betfair...Tory majority jumped in 4 points and with quite a lot of volume, before somebody stuck over £100k of liquity into that market.
    Lol I know Francis.
    The bowel movements on the other hand....every poll at the moment.


  • ydoethur said:

    timmo said:

    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close

    That would be delicious.
    Any chance of a double with Francois?
    That would be almost as good as a win on the National Lottery. Odds are probably about the same.
  • Tyke said:

    NeilVW said:
    That list of seats is some rearguard action!
    Perhaps...or perhaps they have nothing to worry about in the South from the Lib Dems.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Tyke said:

    NeilVW said:
    That list of seats is some rearguard action!
    Goodness gracious. If they’re nervous in Blyth...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ydoethur said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    As said previously, I know a guy who's doing a lot of campaigning etc in the Black Country and he is very confident. Well, was, about a week ago when we last chatted.
    A week is a long time in politics...
    yeah, if only I hadn't included precisely that caveat in the post.
    If you really wanted to spoil us you could tell us who he was campaigning *for*...

  • Any polls this evening?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Tyke said:

    NeilVW said:
    That list of seats is some rearguard action!
    Horse watsit will be along any minute to tell us how well it is going
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited December 2019
    Floater said:

    Tyke said:

    NeilVW said:
    That list of seats is some rearguard action!
    Horse watsit will be along any minute to tell us how well it is going
    You must be psychic.

    And as if by magic the shopkeeper appeared.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1201609962885177344

    Labour spokesperson in "We've no idea how we're going to pay for all this stuff" shocker.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    If true this is very dangerous for Labour.

    The NE like Scotland was rock solid for the reds but if they get abandoned then there's little reason to think they will quickly return. The zeal of the convert can mean that once people move on they can be very hard to bring back once more.
    Scotland gone

    Wales going

    The North edging away

    the Midlands ... .

    Corbynism and bribes sweeping the nation
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1201609962885177344

    Labour spokesperson in "We've no idea how we're going to pay for all this stuff" shocker.

    Seemingly more honest than her "independent" report into anti semitism at any event
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Floater said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    If true this is very dangerous for Labour.

    The NE like Scotland was rock solid for the reds but if they get abandoned then there's little reason to think they will quickly return. The zeal of the convert can mean that once people move on they can be very hard to bring back once more.
    Scotland gone

    Wales going

    The North edging away

    the Midlands ... .

    Corbynism and bribes sweeping the nation
    If all that is true:
    How come they are going up in the polls?
  • eek said:

    timmo said:

    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close

    I find that hard to believe, though amusing that someone like Baker represents a Remain seat. Why the hell are the tragic farce known as UKIP standing in that of all seats?
    A quick glance tells me that the Labour candidate is local and focused on local issues.

    I'm surprised that A&E has moved to Stoke Mandeville - that's a long way to travel even before the traffic in rush hour.


    "Were you up for Steve Baker?"

    Has a certain ring to it...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Floater said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    If true this is very dangerous for Labour.

    The NE like Scotland was rock solid for the reds but if they get abandoned then there's little reason to think they will quickly return. The zeal of the convert can mean that once people move on they can be very hard to bring back once more.
    Scotland gone

    Wales going

    The North edging away

    the Midlands ... .

    Corbynism and bribes sweeping the nation
    Don't get ahead of yourself. All it takes is for the Lib Dems to fold and the Labour Leavers to revert to type - both of which are entirely plausible - and it's more or less as you were.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    eek said:

    timmo said:

    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close

    I find that hard to believe, though amusing that someone like Baker represents a Remain seat. Why the hell are the tragic farce known as UKIP standing in that of all seats?
    A quick glance tells me that the Labour candidate is local and focused on local issues.

    I'm surprised that A&E has moved to Stoke Mandeville - that's a long way to travel even before the traffic in rush hour.


    "Were you up for Steve Baker?"

    Has a certain ring to it...
    I don’t think anyone is up for Baker. He’s a flop.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Tyke said:

    NeilVW said:
    That list of seats is some rearguard action!
    If you take the last letter of every word of Pidcock's tweet, it reads:

    "HELP NEEDED N W DURHAM NOW PLEEEEEASE"

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    Tyke said:

    NeilVW said:
    That list of seats is some rearguard action!
    If you take the last letter of every word of Pidcock's tweet, it reads:

    "HELP NEEDED N W DURHAM NOW PLEEEEEASE"

    Go on, admit it - who checked?
  • I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    What is the cause of the loathing? Marxism does not appeal? Corbyn is unelectable? Brexit? Anti_semitism? All of the above?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Tyke said:

    NeilVW said:
    That list of seats is some rearguard action!
    If you take the last letter of every word of Pidcock's tweet, it reads:

    "HELP NEEDED N W DURHAM NOW PLEEEEEASE"

    Go on, admit it - who checked?
    Well, just for lols :smile:
  • TykeTyke Posts: 18

    Floater said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    If true this is very dangerous for Labour.

    The NE like Scotland was rock solid for the reds but if they get abandoned then there's little reason to think they will quickly return. The zeal of the convert can mean that once people move on they can be very hard to bring back once more.
    Scotland gone

    Wales going

    The North edging away

    the Midlands ... .

    Corbynism and bribes sweeping the nation
    Don't get ahead of yourself. All it takes is for the Lib Dems to fold and the Labour Leavers to revert to type - both of which are entirely plausible - and it's more or less as you were.
    Absolutely. None of these seats may come off (as a man who lost a fair few quid on Hemsworth last time, I’m not risking anything) but watching Labour flap about in the North East is delicious either way.

    If they weren’t worried that bus would be in Guisborough.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Tyke said:

    Floater said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    If true this is very dangerous for Labour.

    The NE like Scotland was rock solid for the reds but if they get abandoned then there's little reason to think they will quickly return. The zeal of the convert can mean that once people move on they can be very hard to bring back once more.
    Scotland gone

    Wales going

    The North edging away

    the Midlands ... .

    Corbynism and bribes sweeping the nation
    Don't get ahead of yourself. All it takes is for the Lib Dems to fold and the Labour Leavers to revert to type - both of which are entirely plausible - and it's more or less as you were.
    Absolutely. None of these seats may come off (as a man who lost a fair few quid on Hemsworth last time, I’m not risking anything) but watching Labour flap about in the North East is delicious either way.

    If they weren’t worried that bus would be in Guisborough.
    I'm wondering why it wasn't in Darlo and Bish - have we written them off?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    ydoethur said:

    Tyke said:

    NeilVW said:

    (pic snipped)

    That list of seats is some rearguard action!
    Goodness gracious. If they’re nervous in Blyth...
    Blyth Valley requires a 9.3% swing for Con to take it. The YouGov MRP is expecting that kind of swing in Easington but nearer 6% in Blyth. Ronnie Campbell, a Brexiteer, is stepping down in Blyth so that could be one to watch.
  • TykeTyke Posts: 18

    Tyke said:

    Floater said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    If true this is very dangerous for Labour.

    The NE like Scotland was rock solid for the reds but if they get abandoned then there's little reason to think they will quickly return. The zeal of the convert can mean that once people move on they can be very hard to bring back once more.
    Scotland gone

    Wales going

    The North edging away

    the Midlands ... .

    Corbynism and bribes sweeping the nation
    Don't get ahead of yourself. All it takes is for the Lib Dems to fold and the Labour Leavers to revert to type - both of which are entirely plausible - and it's more or less as you were.
    Absolutely. None of these seats may come off (as a man who lost a fair few quid on Hemsworth last time, I’m not risking anything) but watching Labour flap about in the North East is delicious either way.

    If they weren’t worried that bus would be in Guisborough.
    I'm wondering why it wasn't in Darlo and Bish - have we written them off?
    Good point, unless Laura is bundling them all under ‘Durham’ - probably not, it would be a long day to get to and from all those seats and then up to Blyth.
  • I didn't realise that Ghislaine Maxwell is the daughter of Robert Maxwell.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited December 2019
    Snow in Downing Street on Polling Day?
    No 1/10
    Yes 6/1
    (BetFred)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited December 2019
    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    I didn't realise that Ghislaine Maxwell is the daughter of Robert Maxwell.

    Also, Andrew is the Queen's son apparently! :wink:
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?

    Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.

    Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.

    2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Tyke said:

    I'm wondering why it wasn't in Darlo and Bish - have we written them off?

    Good point, unless Laura is bundling them all under ‘Durham’ - probably not, it would be a long day to get to and from all those seats and then up to Blyth.
    Labour aren’t exactly fighting an offensive war, are they? They held Cannock less than ten years ago, and need it back, badly - yet they’ve given up.
  • Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
  • Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?

    What breaking the law?
  • Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?

    What breaking the law?
    Ah just like Vote Leave
  • nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
  • nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    What is the cause of the loathing? Marxism does not appeal? Corbyn is unelectable? Brexit? Anti_semitism? All of the above?
    If I might - as a middle class, public sector, big city, suburbanite - be sold bold as to venture an opinion based on the shamefully small population I know outside my own catchment - it's that Corbyn in particular and the Labour Party in general appears not to like them very much. Or at all. As someone said upthread, it's a visceral dislike, not an intellectual dislike: an instinctive reaction based on years and years of - as Seant so memorably put it - multicultural this and anti-austerity that and transgender the other. Leading to a feeling that this was a pretty difficult party to identify with.
  • Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
  • Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?

    The two halves of this sentence do not join in the middle.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Probably late to the party, but I've just noticed that the Brexit Party candidate in Stockton South is one John Prescott. :D
  • Tyke said:

    Floater said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    If true this is very dangerous for Labour.

    The NE like Scotland was rock solid for the reds but if they get abandoned then there's little reason to think they will quickly return. The zeal of the convert can mean that once people move on they can be very hard to bring back once more.
    Scotland gone

    Wales going

    The North edging away

    the Midlands ... .

    Corbynism and bribes sweeping the nation
    Don't get ahead of yourself. All it takes is for the Lib Dems to fold and the Labour Leavers to revert to type - both of which are entirely plausible - and it's more or less as you were.
    Absolutely. None of these seats may come off (as a man who lost a fair few quid on Hemsworth last time, I’m not risking anything) but watching Labour flap about in the North East is delicious either way.

    If they weren’t worried that bus would be in Guisborough.
    I'm wondering why it wasn't in Darlo and Bish - have we written them off?
    That's what I'm hearing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    Tyke said:

    Floater said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    If true this is very dangerous for Labour.

    The NE like Scotland was rock solid for the reds but if they get abandoned then there's little reason to think they will quickly return. The zeal of the convert can mean that once people move on they can be very hard to bring back once more.
    Scotland gone

    Wales going

    The North edging away

    the Midlands ... .

    Corbynism and bribes sweeping the nation
    Don't get ahead of yourself. All it takes is for the Lib Dems to fold and the Labour Leavers to revert to type - both of which are entirely plausible - and it's more or less as you were.
    Absolutely. None of these seats may come off (as a man who lost a fair few quid on Hemsworth last time, I’m not risking anything) but watching Labour flap about in the North East is delicious either way.

    If they weren’t worried that bus would be in Guisborough.
    I'm wondering why it wasn't in Darlo and Bish - have we written them off?
    No-one likes a loser.....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I didn't realise that Ghislaine Maxwell is the daughter of Robert Maxwell.

    He either named his yacht after her, or the other way round.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?

    Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.

    Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.

    2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
    It was a bit tongue-in-cheek really as I'd done it myself. Sorry.
    Several differences to 2017: No Raab or IDS according to the predicted seat changes. No DUP support either whilst the Boris Deal is still in play.
    Suspect it would be like 2017 but a lot messier.
  • andy3664 said:

    Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.

    Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
  • Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
    2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?

    That would be hilarious. Boris would explode and as for the PB Tories.....
    But I am not expecting to have such fun.
  • nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
    Its a good job the Tories haven't left their campaign until the last 2 weeks....
  • On the other hand, my Tory relative has written to the BBC about Andrew Marr's interview style so...
  • Probably late to the party, but I've just noticed that the Brexit Party candidate in Stockton South is one John Prescott. :D

    He's a nice bloke!
  • Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
    2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?

    That would be hilarious. Boris would explode and as for the PB Tories.....
    But I am not expecting to have such fun.
    Seriously, if we end up with the same result, does Johnson go for another election? Does Corbyn give it a go?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    I didn't realise that Ghislaine Maxwell is the daughter of Robert Maxwell.

    You only had to look at the wikipedia page:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein
    Other juicy names from wikipedia about Epstein:
    Steven Hoffenberg, Leslie Wexner, Adnan Khashoggi, John Mitchell. The list is endless with famous names.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019

    Probably late to the party, but I've just noticed that the Brexit Party candidate in Stockton South is one John Prescott. :D

    He's a nice bloke!
    Not if you egg him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Probably late to the party, but I've just noticed that the Brexit Party candidate in Stockton South is one John Prescott. :D

    He's a nice bloke!
    Has he hit home with his message?
  • Last time it must be said, Labour activists were advised not to target the seats they ended up making marginals and instead to target those with large majorities. They were right to do the former.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?

    What breaking the law?
    Ah just like Vote Leave
    But with about 10% of the scrutiny
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    ydoethur said:

    Probably late to the party, but I've just noticed that the Brexit Party candidate in Stockton South is one John Prescott. :D

    He's a nice bloke!
    Has he hit home with his message?
    He's making a good fist of it....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited December 2019
    So tempted to to do a joke about what do Prince Andrew and Ian Lavery have in common....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Last time it must be said, Labour activists were advised not to target the seats they ended up making marginals and instead to target those with large majorities. They were right to do the former.

    I can’t make sense of that. What do you mean?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Sad news from Debden in Epping Forest tonight, a boy dead and several injured after a hit and run.

    Police have opened a murder investigation

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-50637430
  • nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
    Monarchy on the ropes during a GE. I can’t remember that ever happening before.
    Bad for the Tories?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?

    Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.

    Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.

    2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
    Electoral Calculus is hopeless, went from grossly over UNS to now grossly under
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    andy3664 said:

    Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.

    Fascinating.
    Welcome to PB, and please tell us about how you usually vote Lib Dem but have been strangely drawn in recent days to Jeremy Corbyn's vision for the country.
  • Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
    2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?

    That would be hilarious. Boris would explode and as for the PB Tories.....
    But I am not expecting to have such fun.
    Seriously, if we end up with the same result, does Johnson go for another election? Does Corbyn give it a go?
    Of course he would because he seems to be an idiot or else, by Einstein's definition he is insane.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    ydoethur said:

    Last time it must be said, Labour activists were advised not to target the seats they ended up making marginals and instead to target those with large majorities. They were right to do the former.

    I can’t make sense of that. What do you mean?
    I think he means that the Labour Party HQ had wrong information about what was happening on the ground and campaigned in the wrong seats in 2017.
    Corbyn though campaigned in the right seats in 2017.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    andy3664 said:

    Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.

    Did these floating voters vote Tory in 2017? Are they Leavers? If not, irrelevant
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited December 2019
    Cookie said:

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    What is the cause of the loathing? Marxism does not appeal? Corbyn is unelectable? Brexit? Anti_semitism? All of the above?
    If I might - as a middle class, public sector, big city, suburbanite - be sold bold as to venture an opinion based on the shamefully small population I know outside my own catchment - it's that Corbyn in particular and the Labour Party in general appears not to like them very much. Or at all. As someone said upthread, it's a visceral dislike, not an intellectual dislike: an instinctive reaction based on years and years of - as Seant so memorably put it - multicultural this and anti-austerity that and transgender the other. Leading to a feeling that this was a pretty difficult party to identify with.
    From what people have told me, Brexit woke them up. For decades "the Tories" was the lazy excuse. Shit job? Shit prospects? Not happy? Blame The Tories. Richard IQ Burgon pulled the same line last night in the debate. Adam Price blames Labour in government in Wales for the Welsh NHS. IQ attacks Price for not attacking the Tories for something Labour are directly responsible for.
    So it was easy to blame the Tories. Especially in Easington and Boro and post industrial towns. Yet Labour have represented these towns and run these towns since the Vikings left. Brexit made people think "hang on". And that Labour apparently don't get their concerns (rightly if they think crash Brexit fixes things) just makes them angry. Proper angry. I watched Question Time from South Shields. The audience was labelled as all Brexiteer. It was. Not all Brexit Party. Should have been able to weigh in the Labour vote there. Not any more
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1201609962885177344

    Labour spokesperson in "We've no idea how we're going to pay for all this stuff" shocker.

    I don't think there are many people in the political sphere who over the last few years have seen their reputation fall by as much as Chakrabarti's has.
  • Johnny Bairstow would have caught that.
  • nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
    Monarchy on the ropes during a GE. I can’t remember that ever happening before.
    Bad for the Tories?
    Cannot see the connection to be fair
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    So tempted to to do a joke about what do Prince Andrew and Ian Lavery have in common....

    LOL
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    I didn't realise that Ghislaine Maxwell is the daughter of Robert Maxwell.

    Also, Andrew is the Queen's son apparently! :wink:
    But the Duke of Edinburgh is saying nothin'......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
    Its a good job the Tories haven't left their campaign until the last 2 weeks....
    Speaking as someone who has been leafleting most evenings, canvassing most weekends and spent Sunday morning putting up Tory posters I can assure you that is not the case, as also evidenced by the excellent Tory social media operation this time
  • ydoethur said:

    Tyke said:

    I'm wondering why it wasn't in Darlo and Bish - have we written them off?

    Good point, unless Laura is bundling them all under ‘Durham’ - probably not, it would be a long day to get to and from all those seats and then up to Blyth.
    Labour aren’t exactly fighting an offensive war, are they? They held Cannock less than ten years ago, and need it back, badly - yet they’ve given up.
    That's a bit simplistic. The electoral battleground has shifted *a lot* since the Brexit referendum. Labour winning Canterbury in 2017 is an obvious example in the other direction. The closest they previously managed was when an Emily Thornberry was the candidate in 2001, when they were 2,000 votes short, at an election when Labour won 413 seats. In 2017 Labour won 262 seats including Canterbury. If Labour hadn't gone backwards in other seats then Corbyn would have won a majority of ~200.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
    Monarchy on the ropes during a GE. I can’t remember that ever happening before.
    Bad for the Tories?
    Monarchy not on the ropes at all , while Prince Andrew has a 19% positive rating, Queen Elizabeth II still has a 72% positive rating
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Prince_Andrew_Duke_of_York

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Queen_Elizabeth_II
  • Johnny Bairstow would have caught that.

    Why didn't England take Foakes or Bairstow at least as back-up?
  • andy3664 said:

    Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.

    Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
    But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight.
    Who the heck can people vote for?
    I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?

    Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.

    Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.

    2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
    It was a bit tongue-in-cheek really as I'd done it myself. Sorry.
    Several differences to 2017: No Raab or IDS according to the predicted seat changes. No DUP support either whilst the Boris Deal is still in play.
    Suspect it would be like 2017 but a lot messier.
    That's OK :smile:

    As far as what would happen in a scenario like that, the Lib Dems might permit a Tory minority to 'govern' (effectively as caretakers, not being able to do very much) in exchange for a second EU referendum: the Deal versus Remain, if the EU27 will tolerate it. Then pull the plug once said plebiscite had been held. Don't see how you get any kind of a sustainable administration out of that mess. Referendum in Spring, GE in June?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.

    Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .

    This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
    Its a good job the Tories haven't left their campaign until the last 2 weeks....
    Lol. Seriously why are you worried . Unless Trump says something really stupid then I find it hard to see anything other than a Tory majority and as you know it would pain me to say that .
  • So tempted to to do a joke about what do Prince Andrew and Ian Lavery have in common....

    You owe me a new keyboard.
This discussion has been closed.