I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen. They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....
What is the cause of the loathing? Marxism does not appeal? Corbyn is unelectable? Brexit? Anti_semitism? All of the above?
If I might - as a middle class, public sector, big city, suburbanite - be sold bold as to venture an opinion based on the shamefully small population I know outside my own catchment - it's that Corbyn in particular and the Labour Party in general appears not to like them very much. Or at all. As someone said upthread, it's a visceral dislike, not an intellectual dislike: an instinctive reaction based on years and years of - as Seant so memorably put it - multicultural this and anti-austerity that and transgender the other. Leading to a feeling that this was a pretty difficult party to identify with.
From what people have told me, Brexit woke them up. For decades "the Tories" was the lazy excuse. Shit job? Shit prospects? Not happy? Blame The Tories. Richard IQ Burgon pulled the same line last night in the debate. Adam Price blames Labour in government in Wales for the Welsh NHS. IQ attacks Price for not attacking the Tories for something Labour are directly responsible for. So it was easy to blame the Tories. Especially in Easington and Boro and post industrial towns. Yet Labour have represented these towns and run these towns since the Vikings left. Brexit made people think "hang on". And that Labour apparently don't get their concerns (rightly if they think crash Brexit fixes things) just makes them angry. Proper angry. I watched Question Time from South Shields. The audience was labelled as all Brexiteer. It was. Not all Brexit Party. Should have been able to weigh in the Labour vote there. Not any more
Exactly the same as in Scotland. Shut up and vote Labour. Return 50 MPs. Watch as they can do nothing in the face of managed economic decline in the 1980s/1990s. Vote for Labour councils. Watch as they don't build any houses, and fail to pay female workers properly.
Lose an election, ignore it. The voters will come to their senses. Lose another election. Ignore it. The voters will come home soon. Lose another election...
Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?
Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.
Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
Electoral Calculus is hopeless, went from grossly over UNS to now grossly under
Labour spokesperson in "We've no idea how we're going to pay for all this stuff" shocker.
I don't think there are many people in the political sphere who over the last few years have seen their reputation fall by as much as Chakrabarti's has.
And when did she join the cast of the Addams Family?
Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?
Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.
Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
Electoral Calculus is hopeless, went from grossly over UNS to now grossly under
Well ICM has a 7% Conservative lead with the Brexit Party on 3%, in my swingometer that results in Conservatives short by 2 on a 1% swing from LAB to CON in Labour seats. UNS though gives it as a majority of around 30.
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.
Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .
This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
Monarchy on the ropes during a GE. I can’t remember that ever happening before. Bad for the Tories?
Cannot see the connection to be fair
People equate the two, Johnson has reinforced that with his "monarchy is above reproach" shtick, and don't whatever you do mention David Rowland for the next couple of weeks. I have never heard of him - never, do you hear me? - and nor has the tory party.
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 74% of Leave voters, in 2017 they were only winning 65%.
Labour won 54% of Remainers then, it is now winning just 48%.
Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?
Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.
Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
Electoral Calculus is hopeless, went from grossly over UNS to now grossly under
You were happy to use it (repeatedly) a month or so ago.
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 73% of Leave voters
QE2 has, yes. When she goes, what then? To be fair, William has done his absolute best not to come across as a pillock of the first water. The others, less so.
Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?
Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.
Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
It was a bit tongue-in-cheek really as I'd done it myself. Sorry. Several differences to 2017: No Raab or IDS according to the predicted seat changes. No DUP support either whilst the Boris Deal is still in play. Suspect it would be like 2017 but a lot messier.
That's OK
As far as what would happen in a scenario like that, the Lib Dems might permit a Tory minority to 'govern' (effectively as caretakers, not being able to do very much) in exchange for a second EU referendum: the Deal versus Remain, if the EU27 will tolerate it. Then pull the plug once said plebiscite had been held. Don't see how you get any kind of a sustainable administration out of that mess. Referendum in Spring, GE in June?
He doesn't need the Lib Dems to stay in Number 10, DUP opposition to PM Corbyn probably ensures that. So he brings his Deal back to the Commons. It's voted down. Are there enough Tory rebels to force another extension, or do we exit with No Deal on January 31st? A damned close run thing.
I'm wondering why it wasn't in Darlo and Bish - have we written them off?
Good point, unless Laura is bundling them all under ‘Durham’ - probably not, it would be a long day to get to and from all those seats and then up to Blyth.
Labour aren’t exactly fighting an offensive war, are they? They held Cannock less than ten years ago, and need it back, badly - yet they’ve given up.
That's a bit simplistic. The electoral battleground has shifted *a lot* since the Brexit referendum. Labour winning Canterbury in 2017 is an obvious example in the other direction. The closest they previously managed was when an Emily Thornberry was the candidate in 2001, when they were 2,000 votes short, at an election when Labour won 413 seats. In 2017 Labour won 262 seats including Canterbury. If Labour hadn't gone backwards in other seats then Corbyn would have won a majority of ~200.
Same thing happens in many countries. Internal party coalitions usually shift over 2 generations, the longest surviving one was the solid american south for the democrats that lasted for over 100 years, but even now you can find evidence around the world on internal voting borders from the middle ages (Ulster unionists for example).
QE2 has, yes. When she goes, what then? To be fair, William has done his absolute best not to come across as a pillock of the first water. The others, less so.
Prince William 66% positive rating, even Prince Charles up to 48% positive, higher thsn Boris and Corbyn
I'm wondering why it wasn't in Darlo and Bish - have we written them off?
Good point, unless Laura is bundling them all under ‘Durham’ - probably not, it would be a long day to get to and from all those seats and then up to Blyth.
Labour aren’t exactly fighting an offensive war, are they? They held Cannock less than ten years ago, and need it back, badly - yet they’ve given up.
That's a bit simplistic. The electoral battleground has shifted *a lot* since the Brexit referendum. Labour winning Canterbury in 2017 is an obvious example in the other direction. The closest they previously managed was when an Emily Thornberry was the candidate in 2001, when they were 2,000 votes short, at an election when Labour won 413 seats. In 2017 Labour won 262 seats including Canterbury. If Labour hadn't gone backwards in other seats then Corbyn would have won a majority of ~200.
Same thing happens in many countries. Internal party coalitions usually shift over 2 generations, the longest surviving one was the solid american south for the democrats that lasted for over 100 years, but even now you can find evidence around the world on internal voting borders from the middle ages (Ulster unionists for example).
At risk of being picky, that was seventeenth century not the Middle Ages.
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
Snow in several places too.
When you say "staggeringly cold " and "never gets above zero" - are you talking absolute zero?
'Ice Day' which means maxima never getting above zero C. Factor in the significant windchill from the northerly and it would feel like -10C.
But it may not happen. These things usually don't!!!
It’s so cold my wife and daughter are fleeing to California for the winter
Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?
Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.
Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
It was a bit tongue-in-cheek really as I'd done it myself. Sorry. Several differences to 2017: No Raab or IDS according to the predicted seat changes. No DUP support either whilst the Boris Deal is still in play. Suspect it would be like 2017 but a lot messier.
That's OK
As far as what would happen in a scenario like that, the Lib Dems might permit a Tory minority to 'govern' (effectively as caretakers, not being able to do very much) in exchange for a second EU referendum: the Deal versus Remain, if the EU27 will tolerate it. Then pull the plug once said plebiscite had been held. Don't see how you get any kind of a sustainable administration out of that mess. Referendum in Spring, GE in June?
He doesn't need the Lib Dems to stay in Number 10, DUP opposition to PM Corbyn probably ensures that. So he brings his Deal back to the Commons. It's voted down. Are there enough Tory rebels to force another extension, or do we exit with No Deal on January 31st? A damned close run thing.
A very good point. The DUP might not be willing to tolerate the Deal, but they could opt for Hard Brexit.
However, the likelihood of such a scenario coming to pass is rather remote. And yes, some Tory rebels who were willing to sign up to the Deal but not to No Deal would probably emerge in any case.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Labour are 1/8 in Easington. Con 6/1.
Ladies and gentlemen, if Easington is seriously in play - even holding by a few thousand - then we students of politics are reading this election horribly wrong. Boris is going to get a seriously large majority. Seriously large. Extinction level event for the Corbynistas and Momentum large.
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 73% of Leave voters
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
Snow in several places too.
When you say "staggeringly cold " and "never gets above zero" - are you talking absolute zero?
'Ice Day' which means maxima never getting above zero C. Factor in the significant windchill from the northerly and it would feel like -10C.
But it may not happen. These things usually don't!!!
It’s so cold my wife and daughter are fleeing to California for the winter
The extended forest fire season should keep them toasty......
I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!
You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
Just a collaborator- the Tories are the Nazis in the world according to Justin
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 73% of Leave voters
I suspect what's got Labour worried in Easington is indirect.
They won't lose the seat (look at the huge majority and the YouGov MRP) but, if they're losing lots of their traditional voters there, it bodes very poorly for elsewhere in the NE.
Not to belittle the gravity of those stories, they should be on the front, but it does also show how a six-week election campaign - or was it seven? - is just too long. Everyone is utterly bored of it all. They should be a month long max.
Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Momentim flooding IDS constituency according to one of the sunday papers. Door knocking late into the evening.
With Hugh Grant behind them, if voters were not already annoyed enough, no better way to get the vote out for IDS. Chingford and Woodford Green Tories stop canvassing at 7 30pm.
Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
Other than Hugh Grant and Maureen Lipman, it has been a surprising change how little celebs have got involved with this GE...normally by now we are getting the daily chain letters sent to the Guardian from them and on the other side business folk sending to the Telegraph.
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 73% of Leave voters
Total abolition of tuition fees is bound to be Labour's final gambit. Expect the policy to be announced at the weekend.
Maybe reducing the interest rate to zero rather than outright cancellation?
No sign of it in the grey book.
Labour's grey book contains all sorts of interesting details on how they plan to fund their spending commitments.
Except for £400bn for the state investment bank, £250bn for the state investment fund, £200bn (at a guess) for the nationalisation programme, £58bn to throw at the WASPI women, and God alone knows what else that they've already made up on the spot, or will do during the remaining nine days of the campaign.
I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen. They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....
What is the cause of the loathing? Marxism does not appeal? Corbyn is unelectable? Brexit? Anti_semitism? All of the above?
If I might - as a middle class, public sector, big city, suburbanite - be sold bold as to venture an opinion based on the shamefully small population I know outside my own catchment - it's that Corbyn in particular and the Labour Party in general appears not to like them very much. Or at all. As someone said upthread, it's a visceral dislike, not an intellectual dislike: an instinctive reaction based on years and years of - as Seant so memorably put it - multicultural this and anti-austerity that and transgender the other. Leading to a feeling that this was a pretty difficult party to identify with.
From what people have told me, Brexit woke them up. For decades "the Tories" was the lazy excuse. Shit job? Shit prospects? Not happy? Blame The Tories. Richard IQ Burgon pulled the same line last night in the debate. Adam Price blames Labour in government in Wales for the Welsh NHS. IQ attacks Price for not attacking the Tories for something Labour are directly responsible for. So it was easy to blame the Tories. Especially in Easington and Boro and post industrial towns. Yet Labour have represented these towns and run these towns since the Vikings left. Brexit made people think "hang on". And that Labour apparently don't get their concerns (rightly if they think crash Brexit fixes things) just makes them angry. Proper angry. I watched Question Time from South Shields. The audience was labelled as all Brexiteer. It was. Not all Brexit Party. Should have been able to weigh in the Labour vote there. Not any more
Exactly the same as in Scotland. Shut up and vote Labour. Return 50 MPs. Watch as they can do nothing in the face of managed economic decline in the 1980s/1990s. Vote for Labour councils. Watch as they don't build any houses, and fail to pay female workers properly.
Lose an election, ignore it. The voters will come to their senses. Lose another election. Ignore it. The voters will come home soon. Lose another election...
Other than Hugh Grant and Maureen Lipman, it has been a surprising change how little celebs have got involved with this GE...normally by now we are getting the daily chain letters sent to the Guardian from them and on the other side business folk sending to the Telegraph.
Maybe even the luvvies have been sensible enough to steer clear of Corbyn this time.
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 73% of Leave voters
Total abolition of tuition fees is bound to be Labour's final gambit. Expect the policy to be announced at the weekend.
Maybe reducing the interest rate to zero rather than outright cancellation?
No sign of it in the grey book.
Labour's grey book contains all sorts of interesting details on how they plan to fund their spending commitments.
Except for £400bn for the state investment bank, £250bn for the state investment fund, £200bn (at a guess) for the nationalisation programme, £58bn to throw at the WASPI women, and God alone knows what else that they've already made up on the spot, or will do during the remaining nine days of the campaign.
I don’t think it is unreasonable to say that if it is pelting down with snow all day this will keep some voters away from the polling station / polling place.
Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
What's the point of promising to write off anything if nobody believes the promise is remotely credible? I doubt the majority of Labour voters themselves believe the figures that are being bandied about can ever be delivered.
Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
Nope.
Most of the obvious campaining around Broxtowe ward has been by Labour, I've had one flyer from Anna Soubry and that's it. But then that was true in 2017 and she won.
That is very interesting. Why has brexit not happened, "Because it will be bad for rich people and good for us, that is why they have fought it so hard."
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.
Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 73% of Leave voters
Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.
Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .
This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
Monarchy on the ropes during a GE. I can’t remember that ever happening before. Bad for the Tories?
Cannot see the connection to be fair
People equate the two, Johnson has reinforced that with his "monarchy is above reproach" shtick, and don't whatever you do mention David Rowland for the next couple of weeks. I have never heard of him - never, do you hear me? - and nor has the tory party.
I genuinely haven't heard of him - are you going to enlighten us or is this some sort of #innocentface thing?
That is very interesting. Why has brexit not happened, "Because it will be bad for rich people and good for us, that is why they have fought it so hard."
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.
Did I catch it correctly, that they said Dom Cummings is the one behind these focus groups that CH4 sat in on?
Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
What's the point of promising to write off anything if nobody believes the promise is remotely credible? I doubt the majority of Labour voters themselves believe the figures that are being bandied about can ever be delivered.
I imagine the point is to gamble it won't put off anyone already swayed to vote Labour - out of principle and support for the policies, or fear of Tories, or for electoral bribes for unprinciple, deceitful whiners like the WASPI women - and will hopefully ensure there really is a youthquake turnout this time, or at least that it will be about what it was last time.
Comments
Lose an election, ignore it. The voters will come to their senses. Lose another election. Ignore it. The voters will come home soon. Lose another election...
I think YJB's is out in South Africa prepping for the Saffers tour.
Labour won 54% of Remainers then, it is now winning just 48%.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1201403123186585602?s=20
To be fair, William has done his absolute best not to come across as a pillock of the first water. The others, less so.
Internal party coalitions usually shift over 2 generations, the longest surviving one was the solid american south for the democrats that lasted for over 100 years, but even now you can find evidence around the world on internal voting borders from the middle ages (Ulster unionists for example).
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Prince_William_Duke_of_Cambridge
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Prince_Charles
I hope Jo Swinson has some convincing answers for Andrew Neil....
However, the likelihood of such a scenario coming to pass is rather remote. And yes, some Tory rebels who were willing to sign up to the Deal but not to No Deal would probably emerge in any case.
Plus I'm a classy guy with a real sense of decency and good taste, as my jokes on PB show.
https://twitter.com/jnoahmorgan/status/1201620317694779392
Or something like that.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1201620585916317696
They won't lose the seat (look at the huge majority and the YouGov MRP) but, if they're losing lots of their traditional voters there, it bodes very poorly for elsewhere in the NE.
https://twitter.com/Nflwright/status/1201622528558534656
Looks very bad for Labour.
https://www.channel4.com/news/focus-group-can-tories-win-over-people-who-voted-labour-and-leave
If this is a dead cat it's like he's shot every tiger in Bengal and thrown them all on the table.
Chaos at Lord's Taverners' Christmas charity lunch as comedian Nish Kumar is booed off and hit with a BREAD ROLL
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-7748277/Chaos-Lords-Taverners-Christmas-charity-lunch-comedian-Nish-Kumar-booed-off.html
This story is one that deserves the Scorsese treatment.
Dan Hodges needs to STFU and stop moralizing when the party he supports is hardly the Flying Nun!
Con majority?
lmfao.
https://twitter.com/HackedOffHugh/status/1201398898599907328?s=20
Except for £400bn for the state investment bank, £250bn for the state investment fund, £200bn (at a guess) for the nationalisation programme, £58bn to throw at the WASPI women, and God alone knows what else that they've already made up on the spot, or will do during the remaining nine days of the campaign.
Is there anything else that I missed?
Jo Swinson maybe??
(only half said in jest)
Most seats has got £100k's of liquidity. No idea when that all got added.
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.