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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A suggested new cross-break for GE2019 pollsters – separate nu

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  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    Turnout was 71% in December 1923.
    And 79% in February 1974.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited December 2019

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    You do know ... but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
    You're rather irascible at the moment. It was a post made without commentary about likely weather conditions on the day, although I do love your remarkable assumption that I'm not a northerner :wink:

    I don't think we've ever had a truly cold and snowy election. February 1974 was probably the closest but the rain which came in from the west didn't turn to sleet and snow across the Midlands and North until the following day.

    December 12th, at the moment, looks bone-chilling with significant snowfall across parts of Scotland, the North-west and, later, Wales. The latest run also shows significant snowfall south of the M4 corridor on Election Day morning.

    This may all change and most probably will. It's still 10 days out and that's a reasonable length of time meteorlogically. However, both main models are currently showing the same set up: The GFS based in America and the ECM European model.

    I'm not sure how to quantify what might happen in such scenarios. Notwithstanding BGNW's comment, it's difficult to believe that it wouldn't have an impact on turnout, even if only because of transport disruption. A dark, cold, election isn't going to inspire everyone to leave their front doors. Those who haven't already cast their vote by post, that is.

    We shall see!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    When you say "staggeringly cold " and "never gets above zero" - are you talking absolute zero?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited December 2019
    camel said:

    nichomar said:

    How can we be having a general election? The tree is up, roaring fire, frosty outside, White Christmas on the telly. It's inhuman, I tell you.

    Actually has it had any impact on the Christmas activities? I’ve not heard of anything?
    My partner's had to apply for a postal vote as her work Christmas party's on the 12th.
    15 hour Christmas party, your partner has stamina.
    She lives in Kent but works in London - she sets off for the train at 7am and likely won't be back in the constituency until gone 10pm due to the work do.

    A lot of commuters are gonna have to postal vote, this GE, I wager.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    You do know ... but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
    You're rather irascible at the moment. It was a post made without commentary about likely weather conditions on the day, although I do love your remarkable assumption that I'm not a northerner :wink:

    I don't think we've ever had a truly cold and snowy election. February 1974 was probably the closest but the rain which came in from the west didn't turn to sleet and snow across the Midlands and North until the following day.

    December 12th, at the moment, looks bone-chilling with significant snowfall across parts of Scotland, the North-west and, later, Wales. The latest run also shows significant snowfall south of the M4 corridor on Election Day morning.

    This may all change and most probably will. It's still 10 days out and that's a reasonable length of time meteorlogically. However, both main models are currently showing the same set up: The GFS based in America and the ECM European model.

    I'm not sure how to quantify what might happen in such scenarios. Notwithstanding BGNW's comment, it's difficult to believe that it wouldn't have an impact on turnout, even if only because of transport disruption. A dark, cold, election isn't going to inspire everyone to leave their front doors. Those who haven't already cast their vote by post, that is.

    We shall see!
    Just like 2017!
  • If Lavery is trying to hold onto the mining community vote in the Red Wall then Labour's private polling must be dire.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited December 2019

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    When you say "staggeringly cold " and "never gets above zero" - are you talking absolute zero?
    'Ice Day' which means maxima never getting above zero C. Factor in the significant windchill from the northerly and it would feel like -10C.

    But it may not happen. These things usually don't!!!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    Turnout was 71% in December 1923.
    And 79% in February 1974.
    84% in February 1950.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,444

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    You do know ... but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
    You're rather irascible at the moment. It was a post made without commentary about likely weather conditions on the day, although I do love your remarkable assumption that I'm not a northerner :wink:
    I don't think we've ever had a truly cold and snowy election. February 1974 was probably the closest but the rain which came in from the west didn't turn to sleet and snow across the Midlands and North until the following day.
    December 12th, at the moment, looks bone-chilling with significant snowfall across parts of Scotland, the North-west and, later, Wales. The latest run also shows significant snowfall south of the M4 corridor on Election Day morning.
    This may all change and most probably will. It's still 10 days out and that's a reasonable length of time meteorlogically. However, both main models are currently showing the same set up: The GFS based in America and the ECM European model.
    I'm not sure how to quantify what might happen in such scenarios. Notwithstanding BGNW's comment, it's difficult to believe that it wouldn't have an impact on turnout, even if only because of transport disruption. A dark, cold, election isn't going to inspire everyone to leave their front doors. Those who haven't already cast their vote by post, that is.
    We shall see!
    I'm looking at the ECMWF model output on wetterzentrale.de and I'm not seeing what you're seeing. It's above -10C at 850hPa, which is equivalent to above 0C at most British altitudes during the day..
    Do you have a link?
  • justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    TudorRose said:

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    You do know those of us who live in the north and Scotland are well versed in cold weather, ice days and snow. Living sub zero is a requirement for many of us from the north but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
    According to the BBC weather forecast up here in Lancashire it won't go below 4 degrees all day; we call that a heatwave. And our posties are all still wearing shorts, thank you very much.
    10 days out the BBC forecast just makes it up imo; more often wrong than right.
  • camel said:

    JamesP said:


    So summarised, (CON/LAB)

    YouGov +4/+7
    SavantaComRes +7/+5
    Panelbase +2/+5
    Deltapoll +5/+4
    ICM Research +4/+4
    Opinium +4/+5
    Survation +7/+4
    BMG +2/+4
    Kantar +6+5


    So the Conservatives have outsurged Labour in ComRes, Deltapoll, Survation and Kantar

    They have both surged the same in ICM

    Labour have outsurged the Conservatives in YouGov, Panelbase, Opinium and BMG

    So in even more summarised form, a turd of a month for LibDem
    I don't think anything like this level of LD shit-show was predicted by anybody a month ago.
    In fairness, Scottish posters did try to warn you that Swinson was all trappings.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    Laval was not a Nazi.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254

    :lol: I see Lavery is on the front line tonight over miner pensions.

    He is an expert on the subject of course
    Perhaps he could donate the famous miraculously appearing-out-of-thin-air £165k.

    All they need now is another couple of trillion...
  • justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    It has been discussed earlier.

    I think we can reasonably expect the adopted child of Holocaust survivors and nephew/grandchild of Holocaust victims, to understand the reference.

    He will also understand, like 99% of people here, that your use of it reflects overwhelmingly on you, not on him. And not well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    The real mystery of the OGH letters is why some idiot at LDHQ thought they should go out so early. Letters like that are already best arriving at the last minute, not two weeks before polling day. PV’ers are the only people who should be getting them now.
  • justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    Your partisanship has made a fool of you.
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    Laval was not a Nazi.
    Ask a Frenchman. Either way you’re surely not likening a man with family connections to the holocaust to a leader of Vichy France?
  • Andrew said:

    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.

    Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
    I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
    Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
    Labour are 1/8 in Easington. Con 6/1.
  • justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    It has been discussed earlier.

    I think we can reasonably expect the adopted child of Holocaust survivors and nephew/grandchild of Holocaust victims, to understand the reference.

    He will also understand, like 99% of people here, that your use of it reflects overwhelmingly on you, not on him. And not well.
    every so often a post on here genuinely shocks me.

    that most come from "I hope Tory MPs start dying so they lose the majority" justin is, well, reflects overwhelmingly on him, not on me. And not well
  • "Not the firing squad bit though, Ian, that's just **BANTZ**"
  • Looking ominous for SLab if they’re still 3/1 to hold East Lothian. I was sure they’d come in.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    You do know those of us who live in the north and Scotland are well versed in cold weather, ice days and snow. Living sub zero is a requirement for many of us from the north but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
    It has been sub zero all weekend at mine! Was out and about as normal, Edinburgh was mobbed.
    You don't really need to start wrapping up warm until it hits minus five or below. Blokes in Scotland stop wearing shorts around minus 15.
    Ladies in Newcastle start considering (and rejecting) tights at that temperature.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    It has been discussed earlier.

    I think we can reasonably expect the adopted child of Holocaust survivors and nephew/grandchild of Holocaust victims, to understand the reference.

    He will also understand, like 99% of people here, that your use of it reflects overwhelmingly on you, not on him. And not well.
    If he is so sensitive, he should not collude in helping the extreme Right. Many see Johnson as far more racist than Corbyn.. I object to receiving such unsolicited mail from the likes of him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    TudorRose said:

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    You do know those of us who live in the north and Scotland are well versed in cold weather, ice days and snow. Living sub zero is a requirement for many of us from the north but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
    According to the BBC weather forecast up here in Lancashire it won't go below 4 degrees all day; we call that a heatwave. And our posties are all still wearing shorts, thank you very much.
    10 days out the BBC forecast just makes it up imo; more often wrong than right.
    Actually, it is a lot better than that. The week ahead is usually quite close.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    Election day looking cold in some parts of the country. Here in the Cotswolds the forecast's for light rain, gentle breeze and modestly chilly temps (max 6C, min 3C) .

    Typical miz, but hardly extreme, Dec day.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    camel said:

    JamesP said:


    So summarised, (CON/LAB)

    YouGov +4/+7
    SavantaComRes +7/+5
    Panelbase +2/+5
    Deltapoll +5/+4
    ICM Research +4/+4
    Opinium +4/+5
    Survation +7/+4
    BMG +2/+4
    Kantar +6+5


    So the Conservatives have outsurged Labour in ComRes, Deltapoll, Survation and Kantar

    They have both surged the same in ICM

    Labour have outsurged the Conservatives in YouGov, Panelbase, Opinium and BMG

    So in even more summarised form, a turd of a month for LibDem
    I don't think anything like this level of LD shit-show was predicted by anybody a month ago.
    In fairness, Scottish posters did try to warn you that Swinson was all trappings.
    The last Liberal leader to lose their seat at a General Election was Archibald Sinclair in 1945. And records were made to be broken.
  • Shadsy offering free cash again?
    SLab 8/11 to hold Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.
  • Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    You do know ... but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
    You're rather irascible at the moment. It was a post made without commentary about likely weather conditions on the day, although I do love your remarkable assumption that I'm not a northerner :wink:

    I don't think we've ever had a truly cold and snowy election. February 1974 was probably the closest but the rain which came in from the west didn't turn to sleet and snow across the Midlands and North until the following day.

    December 12th, at the moment, looks bone-chilling with significant snowfall across parts of Scotland, the North-west and, later, Wales. The latest run also shows significant snowfall south of the M4 corridor on Election Day morning.

    This may all change and most probably will. It's still 10 days out and that's a reasonable length of time meteorlogically. However, both main models are currently showing the same set up: The GFS based in America and the ECM European model.

    I'm not sure how to quantify what might happen in such scenarios. Notwithstanding BGNW's comment, it's difficult to believe that it wouldn't have an impact on turnout, even if only because of transport disruption. A dark, cold, election isn't going to inspire everyone to leave their front doors. Those who haven't already cast their vote by post, that is.

    We shall see!
    Nobody who is from the north and Scotland would see any point in your post as it is weather conditions we are well versed in. When I was young living in Berwick on Tweed the insides of the bedroom windows would have icicles on display in the winter, when I was on duty in Edinburgh city police in the early sixties the night shift was like Antarctica, and one december day when my soon to be wife and I travelled from Edinburgh to Forres, we had to get passengers to use their cigarette lighters to melt the ice on the inside of the carriage doors to get out in Aviemore, and then sat in the connecting train shivering in bone chilling cold

    So suggesting an ice day or snow will effect the voting I would suggest can only be from someone who has little knowledge of us northerners
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    It has been discussed earlier.

    I think we can reasonably expect the adopted child of Holocaust survivors and nephew/grandchild of Holocaust victims, to understand the reference.

    He will also understand, like 99% of people here, that your use of it reflects overwhelmingly on you, not on him. And not well.
    If he is so sensitive, he should not collude in helping the extreme Right. Many see Johnson as far more racist than Corbyn.. I object to receiving such unsolicited mail from the likes of him.
    One should never ever miss an opportunity to double down on one's own egregiousness.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    Ignore justin; he only does it to annoy, because he knows it teases.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    Ignore justin; he only does it to annoy, because he knows it teases.
    Fair enough. I now see that from the later post. No one is actually that crass.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    It has been discussed earlier.

    I think we can reasonably expect the adopted child of Holocaust survivors and nephew/grandchild of Holocaust victims, to understand the reference.

    He will also understand, like 99% of people here, that your use of it reflects overwhelmingly on you, not on him. And not well.
    If he is so sensitive, he should not collude in helping the extreme Right. Many see Johnson as far more racist than Corbyn.. I object to receiving such unsolicited mail from the likes of him.
    You pontificate - or speculate - on elections yet you attitudinise about "unsolicited mail"

    "unsolicited mail" is what elections are all about. If you don't like it, get yourself a different hobby. You're like a punter at the horse races whingeing about "poor race horses condemned to slavery"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Nobody who is from the north and Scotland would see any point in your post as it is weather conditions we are well versed in. When I was young living in Berwick on Tweed the insides of the bedroom windows would have icicles on display in the winter, when I was on duty in Edinburgh city police in the early sixties the night shift was like Antarctica, and one december day when my soon to be wife and I travelled from Edinburgh to Forres, we had to get passengers to use their cigarette lighters to melt the ice on the inside of the carriage doors to get out in Aviemore, and then sat in the connecting train shivering in bone chilling cold

    So suggesting an ice day or snow will effect the voting I would suggest can only be from someone who has little knowledge of us northerners

    Luxury!
    When I were travelling by train as a lad, we didn’t’ave windows. We used to make blocks of solid ice and plug gaps. Then, we wanted to get oot, Dad’ld use the heat from oor bodies t’melt ice and we would be thrown on t’tracks.
    (With apologies to the Four Yorkshiremen.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    HYUFD said:

    The biggest swing to the Tories is in the North and Midlands, full of marginals, Boris is doing a Trump and sweeping the white working class

    "Boris" sweeping the WWC like Trump. I fear you're right. In which case I wash my hands of them. Difficult - it's my roots - but I will. Stupid stupid bastards.
  • A few years ago I remember working with Labour MPs like Adam Ingram. I’d love to know his thoughts on the cult of Corbyn.
  • More serious money still loading up the Betfair market.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    I don’t think it is unreasonable to say that if it is pelting down with snow all day this will keep some voters away from the polling station / polling place.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Flanner said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I have just sent a Tweet to Ian Austin letting him know what I think of his Mainstream letter. I wonder whether he will understand the Pierre Laval reference!

    You’re surely not likening Ian Austin to a nazi? You do realise his background?
    It has been discussed earlier.

    I think we can reasonably expect the adopted child of Holocaust survivors and nephew/grandchild of Holocaust victims, to understand the reference.

    He will also understand, like 99% of people here, that your use of it reflects overwhelmingly on you, not on him. And not well.
    If he is so sensitive, he should not collude in helping the extreme Right. Many see Johnson as far more racist than Corbyn.. I object to receiving such unsolicited mail from the likes of him.
    You pontificate - or speculate - on elections yet you attitudinise about "unsolicited mail"

    "unsolicited mail" is what elections are all about. If you don't like it, get yourself a different hobby. You're like a punter at the horse races whingeing about "poor race horses condemned to slavery"
    But he is not a candidate in my constituency and I found his letter offensive. I have simply returned the compliment.
  • When I see the likes of Justin posts, I actually start to feel sorry for MPs....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    matt said:

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    You do know those of us who live in the north and Scotland are well versed in cold weather, ice days and snow. Living sub zero is a requirement for many of us from the north but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
    It has been sub zero all weekend at mine! Was out and about as normal, Edinburgh was mobbed.
    You don't really need to start wrapping up warm until it hits minus five or below. Blokes in Scotland stop wearing shorts around minus 15.
    Ladies in Newcastle start considering (and rejecting) tights at that temperature.
    Is there a temperature at which they consider wearing panties?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited December 2019

    TudorRose said:

    Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.

    Snow in several places too.

    You do know those of us who live in the north and Scotland are well versed in cold weather, ice days and snow. Living sub zero is a requirement for many of us from the north but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
    According to the BBC weather forecast up here in Lancashire it won't go below 4 degrees all day; we call that a heatwave. And our posties are all still wearing shorts, thank you very much.
    10 days out the BBC forecast just makes it up imo; more often wrong than right.
    Actually, it is a lot better than that. The week ahead is usually quite close.
    The week ahead ≠ 10 days out.
    The Met Office forecasts are generally better but they wisely do not provide detail beyond a week.
  • I don’t think it is unreasonable to say that if it is pelting down with snow all day this will keep some voters away from the polling station / polling place.

    Depends. Blizzards yes but that is not ice day or snow
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,125
    edited December 2019
    Hold the front pages...150 people turned up...

    I heard he is off to the BBC after the GE?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    Andrew said:

    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.

    Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
    I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
    Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
    Labour are 1/8 in Easington. Con 6/1.
    Ladies and gentlemen, if Easington is seriously in play - even holding by a few thousand - then we students of politics are reading this election horribly wrong. Boris is going to get a seriously large majority.
    Seriously large.
    Extinction level event for the Corbynistas and Momentum large.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The biggest swing to the Tories is in the North and Midlands, full of marginals, Boris is doing a Trump and sweeping the white working class

    "Boris" sweeping the WWC like Trump. I fear you're right. In which case I wash my hands of them. Difficult - it's my roots - but I will. Stupid stupid bastards.
    https://youtu.be/a_b01PNYV4s
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Where's that? I can't say that 150 sounds that huge, but if it's triple the usual that's interesting
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Andrew said:

    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.

    Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
    I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
    Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
    Labour are 1/8 in Easington. Con 6/1.
    Ladies and gentlemen, if Easington is seriously in play - even holding by a few thousand - then we students of politics are reading this election horribly wrong. Boris is going to get a seriously large majority.
    Seriously large.
    Extinction level event for the Corbynistas and Momentum large.
    "if" is doing a lot of work there.
  • Hold the front pages...150 people turned up...

    I heard he is off to the BBC after the GE?
    Well suited with his labour connections and loyalty
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The biggest swing to the Tories is in the North and Midlands, full of marginals, Boris is doing a Trump and sweeping the white working class

    "Boris" sweeping the WWC like Trump. I fear you're right. In which case I wash my hands of them. Difficult - it's my roots - but I will. Stupid stupid bastards.
    Well corbyn has already washed his hands of them leaving them with, as they see it, no where else to go. Labour whilst relying on its traditional base, has deserted them for a socialism that many normal people can not associate with. Anyone but corbyn or one of his disciples from labours safe wing would be heading for Downing Street, the uk towards EFTA/EEA and the possibility of righting some of societies wrongs but no only a true socialist victory is worth having everything else is worthless.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The biggest swing to the Tories is in the North and Midlands, full of marginals, Boris is doing a Trump and sweeping the white working class

    "Boris" sweeping the WWC like Trump. I fear you're right. In which case I wash my hands of them. Difficult - it's my roots - but I will. Stupid stupid bastards.
    If - and I think it's still a big if - the Labour Leavers do end up swinging this for Johnson then Labour only has itself to blame. This election, coming as it does after a decade of austerity politics and with the sitting Government headed by someone who might plausibly be described as a bumbling charlatan, ought to be an open goal for the Left.

    The fact that the leader and the policy platform (especially with respect to Brexit and the colossal amount of unfunded spending pledges) are both incredible - and not in a good way - is entirely down to the party and not to the voters.

    If Labour made them an offer that was worth voting for then they would do so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Andrew said:

    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.

    Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
    I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
    Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
    Labour are 1/8 in Easington. Con 6/1.
    Ladies and gentlemen, if Easington is seriously in play - even holding by a few thousand - then we students of politics are reading this election horribly wrong. Boris is going to get a seriously large majority.
    Seriously large.
    Extinction level event for the Corbynistas and Momentum large.
    "if" is doing a lot of work there.
    We also don’t know who’s causing them difficulties. If the Liberal Democrats are on course to win then Boris Johnson is even more screwed than he normally is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    Hold the front pages...150 people turned up...

    I heard he is off to the BBC after the GE?
    Labour usually get 50 to the hustings. Now 150.
    Tory majority reduced by 100 over Labour then?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Where's that? I can't say that 150 sounds that huge, but if it's triple the usual that's interesting
    Chelsea and Fulham.
  • Where's that? I can't say that 150 sounds that huge, but if it's triple the usual that's interesting
    Chelsea and Fulham

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited December 2019

    Hold the front pages...150 people turned up...

    I heard he is off to the BBC after the GE?
    Well suited with his labour connections and loyalty
    You mean he'll fit in with such Labour-leaning BBC politicos as, er... Andrew Neil, Laura Kuenssberg and Andrew Marr?
  • IanB2 said:

    The real mystery of the OGH letters is why some idiot at LDHQ thought they should go out so early. Letters like that are already best arriving at the last minute, not two weeks before polling day. PV’ers are the only people who should be getting them now.

    The person I first saw post that they got one, which was in Warrington South on my Facebook feed, said it arrived with his postal vote.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,125
    edited December 2019

    Hold the front pages...150 people turned up...

    I heard he is off to the BBC after the GE?
    Well suited with his labour connections and loyalty
    You mean he'll fit in with such Labour-leaning BBC politicos as, er... Andrew Neil, Laura Kuenssberg and Andrew Marr?
    Andrew Marr not left leaning...thats news to me.....by his own admission, in his younger days he was even too left wing for the current Labour Party.
  • Hold the front pages...150 people turned up...

    I heard he is off to the BBC after the GE?
    Well suited with his labour connections and loyalty
    You mean he'll fit in with such Labour-leaning BBC politicos as, er... Andrew Neil, Laura Kuenssberg and Andrew Marr?
    Did you see Marr on Sunday Ben. He is labour through and through

    Also Goodall is labour - if you doubt me look up his record with the IPPR and the books he has written
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Who wants to see this year's White House Christmas decorations? You might need some industrial welding masks to hand though:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-50636780/white-house-christmas-decorations-unveiled
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Where's that? I can't say that 150 sounds that huge, but if it's triple the usual that's interesting
    Fulham and Chelsea.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    IanB2 said:

    The real mystery of the OGH letters is why some idiot at LDHQ thought they should go out so early. Letters like that are already best arriving at the last minute, not two weeks before polling day. PV’ers are the only people who should be getting them now.

    The person I first saw post that they got one, which was in Warrington South on my Facebook feed, said it arrived with his postal vote.
    With - or on the same day as?
    With would be a serious scandal....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited December 2019

    Who wants to see this year's White House Christmas decorations? You might need some industrial welding masks to hand though:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-50636780/white-house-christmas-decorations-unveiled

    Uncharacteristically subtle, tasteful and restrained.

    She ain’t hoovering them pine needles.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited December 2019

    Andrew said:

    Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.

    Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
    I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
    Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
    Labour are 1/8 in Easington. Con 6/1.
    Ladies and gentlemen, if Easington is seriously in play - even holding by a few thousand - then we students of politics are reading this election horribly wrong. Boris is going to get a seriously large majority.
    Seriously large.
    Extinction level event for the Corbynistas and Momentum large.
    I'd be very surprised. We are talking Peterlee. Have you ever been to Peterlee?
    I expect they may well be getting a hard time on the doorstep, but the MP has a 14k majority. I'd imagine that Lavery was there out of ineptitude or laziness. If he went to nearby marginal seats, he'd be expected to do some work.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Who wants to see this year's White House Christmas decorations? You might need some industrial welding masks to hand though:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-50636780/white-house-christmas-decorations-unveiled

    Using enough elecy to power a COP conference.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Who wants to see this year's White House Christmas decorations? You might need some industrial welding masks to hand though:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-50636780/white-house-christmas-decorations-unveiled

    Using enough elecy to power a COP conference.
    Surely all the hot air from Trump’s twitter feed is harnessed to provide power?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited December 2019

    Hold the front pages...150 people turned up...

    I heard he is off to the BBC after the GE?
    Well suited with his labour connections and loyalty
    You mean he'll fit in with such Labour-leaning BBC politicos as, er... Andrew Neil, Laura Kuenssberg and Andrew Marr?
    Did you see Marr on Sunday Ben. He is labour through and through

    Also Goodall is labour - if you doubt me look up his record with the IPPR and the books he has written
    I don't doubt Goodall is left leaning. Do you accept that Neil and Kuenssberg are right-leaning? If so, I don't think it's fair to characterise the BBC as 'well suited to Goodall's labour connections and loyalties'.
    The point is that both left and right often see the BBC as biased against themselves. Which probably means the BBC get it right most of the time - not an easy feat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The biggest swing to the Tories is in the North and Midlands, full of marginals, Boris is doing a Trump and sweeping the white working class

    "Boris" sweeping the WWC like Trump. I fear you're right. In which case I wash my hands of them. Difficult - it's my roots - but I will. Stupid stupid bastards.
    When people think Bozo is honest you really do wonder whether it’s time to escape before Patel stations guards at every exit point shooting those trying to flee the UK .

    Bozo now lies every time he speaks and the pathetic media just stand there nodding .
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited December 2019
    I can believe the Easington rumor. Labour in Middlesbrough only banking on half their 2017 vote. Teesside Tories being pulled out of Middlesbrough South and Stockton South and sent to Darlington.
    A Labour routing is in prospect in the North East - the question is to whom the votes go? Tories will smash it in Darlo and Stockton South and possibly Sedgefield. I suggested BXP in pools ages ago, Easington another prospect for them. South Shields perhaps, those sorts of seats. There's a loud independent in Boro backed by the independent mayor but TBH I expect he will only split the sizeable anti-Labour vote.
    Don't get too giddy though you PB Tories. This isn't a UNS landslide. Because UNS is laughable in an election with such significant regional differences. I can see LD gains up here too - there is hope for fans* of Laura Pillock... *giggles*
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    nico67 said:

    Bozo now lies every time he speaks and the pathetic media just stand there nodding .

    What do you mean, ‘now?’
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
    Yule regret it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
    Yule regret it.
    Duly logged.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I can believe the Easington rumor. Labour in Middlesbrough only banking on half their 2017 vote. Teesside Tories being pulled out of Middlesbrough South and Stockton South and sent to Darlington.
    A Labour routing is in prospect in the North East - the question is to whom the votes go? Tories will smash it in Darlo and Stockton South and possibly Sedgefield. I suggested BXP in pools ages ago, Easington another prospect for them. South Shields perhaps, those sorts of seats. There's a loud independent in Boro backed by the independent mayor but TBH I expect he will only split the sizeable anti-Labour vote.
    Don't get too giddy though you PB Tories. This isn't a UNS landslide. Because UNS is laughable in an election with such significant regional differences. I can see LD gains up here too - there is hope for fans* of Laura Pillock... *giggles*

    The Yellows with a chance to take NW Durham?
    I’d feel the earthquake all the way to Cannock.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
    Yule regret it.
    Some of these puns are a bit wooden tbh - they need sprucing up!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
    Yule regret it.
    Some of these puns are a bit wooden tbh - they need sprucing up!
    There’s Norway I’m letting that pass.
  • I can believe the Easington rumor. Labour in Middlesbrough only banking on half their 2017 vote. Teesside Tories being pulled out of Middlesbrough South and Stockton South and sent to Darlington.
    A Labour routing is in prospect in the North East - the question is to whom the votes go? Tories will smash it in Darlo and Stockton South and possibly Sedgefield. I suggested BXP in pools ages ago, Easington another prospect for them. South Shields perhaps, those sorts of seats. There's a loud independent in Boro backed by the independent mayor but TBH I expect he will only split the sizeable anti-Labour vote.
    Don't get too giddy though you PB Tories. This isn't a UNS landslide. Because UNS is laughable in an election with such significant regional differences. I can see LD gains up here too - there is hope for fans* of Laura Pillock... *giggles*

    Pidders is on my wishlist of Portillo moments, along with IDS and others.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
    Yule regret it.
    Duly logged.
    Deer oh deer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I can believe the Easington rumor. Labour in Middlesbrough only banking on half their 2017 vote. Teesside Tories being pulled out of Middlesbrough South and Stockton South and sent to Darlington.
    A Labour routing is in prospect in the North East - the question is to whom the votes go? Tories will smash it in Darlo and Stockton South and possibly Sedgefield. I suggested BXP in pools ages ago, Easington another prospect for them. South Shields perhaps, those sorts of seats. There's a loud independent in Boro backed by the independent mayor but TBH I expect he will only split the sizeable anti-Labour vote.
    Don't get too giddy though you PB Tories. This isn't a UNS landslide. Because UNS is laughable in an election with such significant regional differences. I can see LD gains up here too - there is hope for fans* of Laura Pillock... *giggles*

    Pidders is on my wishlist of Portillo moments, along with IDS and others.
    Johnson and Corbyn are my top two.
    The chances of the latter are the same as England’s chances of winning a Test overseas.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
    Yule regret it.
    Some of these puns are a bit wooden tbh - they need sprucing up!
    There’s Norway I’m letting that pass.
    I thought you'd cedar light eventually.
    (Edit: Sorry that one's truly abysmal!)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    What’s strange about this election . For all the talk of a Brexit election apart from the now cremated Get Brexit Done that’s it, absolutely nothing about the detail of what trading relationship the UK might have in the future .

    So I’m now bringing out .

    BEINO

    Brexit Election In Name Only !
  • ECMWF forecast for Election Day. No northerlies. Way above freezing (chart is the temperature at 850hPa, nearly 1 mile high).
    GFS 2m temperature at noon on Election Day. I wouldn't normally bother showing the chart for the GFS model, since it's only the third best model (after ECMWF and UKMO), but since @Mysticrose mentioned it, here it is. Only below freezing in Scotland.
    Just for laughs, here is the GFS forecast 10m wind, fear the mighty 5 knot winds of variable direction!
    Have I got this all wrong? Is someone feeding wetterzentrale dodgy data?
    The forecast is not for a bitterly cold day on Election Day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
    Yule regret it.
    Some of these puns are a bit wooden tbh - they need sprucing up!
    There’s Norway I’m letting that pass.
    I thought you'd cedar light eventually.
    And so my triumph turns to ash.
  • IanB2 said:

    The real mystery of the OGH letters is why some idiot at LDHQ thought they should go out so early. Letters like that are already best arriving at the last minute, not two weeks before polling day. PV’ers are the only people who should be getting them now.

    The person I first saw post that they got one, which was in Warrington South on my Facebook feed, said it arrived with his postal vote.
    With - or on the same day as?
    With would be a serious scandal....
    Same day as. If they were both posted they probably were both delivered by Royal Mail at the same time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
    Yule regret it.
    Some of these puns are a bit wooden tbh - they need sprucing up!
    There’s Norway I’m letting that pass.
    Quite right; that sort of challenge should never be ig nord,mann.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited December 2019
    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close
  • TykeTyke Posts: 18

    I can believe the Easington rumor. Labour in Middlesbrough only banking on half their 2017 vote. Teesside Tories being pulled out of Middlesbrough South and Stockton South and sent to Darlington.
    A Labour routing is in prospect in the North East - the question is to whom the votes go? Tories will smash it in Darlo and Stockton South and possibly Sedgefield. I suggested BXP in pools ages ago, Easington another prospect for them. South Shields perhaps, those sorts of seats. There's a loud independent in Boro backed by the independent mayor but TBH I expect he will only split the sizeable anti-Labour vote.
    Don't get too giddy though you PB Tories. This isn't a UNS landslide. Because UNS is laughable in an election with such significant regional differences. I can see LD gains up here too - there is hope for fans* of Laura Pillock... *giggles*

    What news from Redcar?

    If the Labour vote in Middlesbrough proper is in freefall then I would expect Redcar to be ahead of that.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    They are not loved. I haven’t seen quite so much visceral loathing as you describe.
  • I don't know what the mood on the ground is in the West Midlands. But in the NE the visceral hate for Labour is something to behold. They really are despised by people who should have been comfortable bankers for the reds. Whether that means punters manage to coalesce around the best alternative remains to be seen.
    They did manage to do so in May at the local elections....

    You mean they aren't being placated with offers of free broadband and cheaper rail season tickets?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    timmo said:

    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close

    That would be delicious.
    Any chance of a double with Francois?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if a rooted Christmas tree with led lights is carbon neutral.

    That’s a somewhat casual way to refer to the First Lady.
    You’re on fir tonight.
    I’ve been pining for a good punning contest. Since we’ve stopped discussing the B-word morning noon and night there just isn’t the scope.
    Yule regret it.
    Some of these puns are a bit wooden tbh - they need sprucing up!
    There’s Norway I’m letting that pass.
    I thought you'd cedar light eventually.
    And so my triumph turns to ash.
    Theses puns have branched, Noel good will come of that.
  • timmo said:

    Hearing some bad noises for Baker coming out of Wycombe..could be v close

    It doesn't matter which tribe you back. Or used to back. There are some *excretably* bad politicians in Parliament and most normals would be delighted to see them gone
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Are we expecting any polls tonight?
This discussion has been closed.