Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
That is very interesting. Why has brexit not happened, "Because it will be bad for rich people and good for us, that is why they have fought it so hard."
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.
Brexit will almost certainly be great for rich people and terrible for them, but they'll figure that out for themselves soon enough.
Somebody is still piling loads more liquidity into Betfair market.
Maybe someone's had a sneaky peek at the postals !
Something brought Tory majority in a bit, but it was the massive injection of liquidity that caught my eye. Somebody suggested it was city types that do this most GEs.
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 73% of Leave voters (Pic snipped)
Total abolition of tuition fees is bound to be Labour's final gambit. Expect the policy to be announced at the weekend.
Maybe reducing the interest rate to zero rather than outright cancellation?
Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?
Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.
Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
Somebody is still piling loads more liquidity into Betfair market.
Maybe someone's had a sneaky peek at the postals !
Something brought Tory majority in a bit, but it was the massive injection of liquidity that caught my eye. Somebody suggested it was city types that do this most GEs.
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 73% of Leave voters (Pic snipped)
Total abolition of tuition fees is bound to be Labour's final gambit. Expect the policy to be announced at the weekend.
Maybe reducing the interest rate to zero rather than outright cancellation?
Other than Hugh Grant and Maureen Lipman, it has been a surprising change how little celebs have got involved with this GE...normally by now we are getting the daily chain letters sent to the Guardian from them and on the other side business folk sending to the Telegraph.
Maybe they are finally getting the message it generally doesn't help any.
I don’t think it is unreasonable to say that if it is pelting down with snow all day this will keep some voters away from the polling station / polling place.
Snowflakes!
From where comes this story of snow on the 12th? I've looked at the Met Office website and it looks an unremarkable dull winter day with perhaps some showers. In some parts there may be a bit of a sleety snow shower - but it's not looking the beast from the east. Obvs forecasts this far out are still a bit guessy - but nothing as far as I can see to suggest any major problems. Maybe I just haven't looked in the right places?
That is very interesting. Why has brexit not happened, "Because it will be bad for rich people and good for us, that is why they have fought it so hard."
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.
Did I catch it correctly, that they said Dom Cummings is the one behind these focus groups that CH4 sat in on?
On topic. I have been thinking for weeks that most this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistenty to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good poll. So I introduce The Eggling. I can Eggling the last two polls. Survation Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 48 - 4 short of TV damage ICM Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 50 - 2 short of TV damage In a betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet on PV
Yes that chimes with all the Vox Pops in the papers.
Labour are losing their English heartlands to the Tories, and on a large scale.
This is how Boris will - perhaps - get a majority without a very large lead in votes. Wealthy southern England will stay loyal because Corbyn. Unionist Scotland will stay Tory because Union. The southwest will stay Tory because Leave. Wales is a toss-up. But Boris will win enough red seats in the Midlands and the North to get a majority. And we shall Brexit. I reckon.
That is very interesting. Why has brexit not happened, "Because it will be bad for rich people and good for us, that is why they have fought it so hard."
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.
Did I catch it correctly, that they said Dom Cummings is the one behind these focus groups that CH4 sat in on?
I think the question you should ask is how accurate was a pollster in 2010, 2015, 2017 and did they adjust (or keep) methodology to counteract deficiencies in past elections. Do adjustments lead to better performance? Is the methodology of the past suitable to today? Very hard to assess how polls will perform in advance!
That is very interesting. Why has brexit not happened, "Because it will be bad for rich people and good for us, that is why they have fought it so hard."
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.
Did I catch it correctly, that they said Dom Cummings is the one behind these focus groups that CH4 sat in on?
They said "as so lovedby Domenic Cummings."
Labour strategists who've seen that Ch4 segment will not be sleeping tonight.
Crickey....that focus group, I knew what Tony Blair stood for and I trusted him...I don't know what Corbyn stands for and I don't trust him....
How can people not know what Corbyn stands for? Why, he's that lifelong anti-racist campaigner who counter-intuitively finds it difficult to spot racism.
Boris...Lovable Buffoon....don't care how many how many kids or has affairs....
Are we sure that CH4 focus group was ex-Labour voters, not Tory ones?
It chimes with the Delta subsets I posted earlier today. Corbyn's net approval is -51 in the Midlands, -42 in the North. Johnson is at -4 and +7 respectively.
Crickey....that focus group, I knew what Tony Blair stood for and I trusted him...I don't know what Corbyn stands for and I don't trust him....
How can people not know what Corbyn stands for? Why, he's that lifelong anti-racist campaigner who counter-intuitively finds it difficult to spot racism.
LOL....in all seriousness, I find it difficult to square the circle of those statements. My first and foremost cricitism of Blair, not telling the truth, don't know what he stood for as I am not sure he always believed in it what he was saying.
Corbyn, I know exactly what he stands for and he believes it 100%, and thats exactly the problem.
I think the question you should ask is how accurate was a pollster in 2010, 2015, 2017 and did they adjust (or keep) methodology to counteract deficiencies in past elections. Do adjustments lead to better performance? Is the methodology of the past suitable to today? Very hard to assess how polls will perform in advance!
2015: Polls on average overstated Labour 2017: Polls on average understated Labour 2019: ?
On topic. I have been thinking for weeks that most this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistenty to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good poll. So I introduce The Eggling. I can Eggling the last two polls. Survation Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 48 - 4 short of TV damage ICM Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 50 - 2 short of TV damage In a betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet on PV
Boris...Lovable Buffoon....don't care how many how many kids or has affairs.... Are we sure that CH4 focus group was ex-Labour voters, not Tory ones?
Whether it will translate into sufficient votes in the right area or not I do not know, but that people, even those not natural supporters, give Boris benefit of the doubt on things they would pillory others for, does seem true to a degree. It must infuriate other politicians, what he can get away with. If anything its a strata of core Tory (or now former Tory) opinion which is among the most implacably opposed to him, in a similar way to ex-Labour types like Austin and Woodcock being the most virulently anti-Corbyn. Their previous connection seems to amplify the dislike, while normal voters even on the opposite side do not feel the same fervour.
Somebody is still piling loads more liquidity into Betfair market.
Maybe someone's had a sneaky peek at the postals !
Something brought Tory majority in a bit, but it was the massive injection of liquidity that caught my eye. Somebody suggested it was city types that do this most GEs.
Often these weird lumps of money appear, and rarely forecast anything of note. There were those large lumps of money backing a no deal exit in the spring, which continued to arrive in round amounts well after the point when no deal had as good as been ruled out. There was the mystery Leadsom for Leader backer. Etc.
Yes that chimes with all the Vox Pops in the papers.
Labour are losing their English heartlands to the Tories, and on a large scale.
This is how Boris will - perhaps - get a majority without a very large lead in votes. Wealthy southern England will stay loyal because Corbyn. Unionist Scotland will stay Tory because Union. The southwest will stay Tory because Leave. Wales is a toss-up. But Boris will win enough red seats in the Midlands and the North to get a majority. And we shall Brexit. I reckon.
Yes it is the Trump factor, Yougov MRP had 44 mainly Leave seats going Tory much like the rustbelt went for Trump as the swing was biggest with the white working class (same story in Australia where the white working class in Queensland won it for Morrison).
Look at this map, huge Tory gains North of Watford, barely any in the South and London
Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.
Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .
This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
Monarchy on the ropes during a GE. I can’t remember that ever happening before. Bad for the Tories?
Cannot see the connection to be fair
People equate the two, Johnson has reinforced that with his "monarchy is above reproach" shtick, and don't whatever you do mention David Rowland for the next couple of weeks. I have never heard of him - never, do you hear me? - and nor has the tory party.
I genuinely haven't heard of him - are you going to enlighten us or is this some sort of #innocentface thing?
Google him, perhaps? Business associate of Prince A whose business dealings are going to get at least as much attention as his party time activities in the weeks ahead, and nearly became Tory treasurer in 2010.
Crickey....that focus group, I knew what Tony Blair stood for and I trusted him...I don't know what Corbyn stands for and I don't trust him....
How can people not know what Corbyn stands for? Why, he's that lifelong anti-racist campaigner who counter-intuitively finds it difficult to spot racism.
And may or may not recommend the public vote for the Brexit deal he negotiates.
On topic. I have been thinking for weeks that most this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistenty to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good poll. So I introduce The Eggling. I can Eggling the last two polls. Survation Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 48 - 4 short of TV damage ICM Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 50 - 2 short of TV damage In a betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet on PV
Crickey....that focus group, I knew what Tony Blair stood for and I trusted him...I don't know what Corbyn stands for and I don't trust him....
How can people not know what Corbyn stands for? Why, he's that lifelong anti-racist campaigner who counter-intuitively finds it difficult to spot racism.
LOL....in all seriousness, I find it difficult to square the circle of those statements. My first and foremost cricitism of Blair, not telling the truth, don't know what he stood for as I am not sure he always believed in it what he was saying.
Corbyn, I know exactly what he stands for and he believes it 100%, and thats exactly the problem.
Yes, people are just applying generic criticism sentences they have heard used by others before, to express a general dislike - the precise content is not necessarily what they really mean.
I think the question you should ask is how accurate was a pollster in 2010, 2015, 2017 and did they adjust (or keep) methodology to counteract deficiencies in past elections. Do adjustments lead to better performance? Is the methodology of the past suitable to today? Very hard to assess how polls will perform in advance!
2015: Polls on average overstated Labour 2017: Polls on average understated Labour 2019: ?
Somebody is still piling loads more liquidity into Betfair market.
Which one?
Tory, Overall Majority.
Blimey. Look at those numbers.
£100k got added in about an hour early this evening. And a load more has gone on in the past hour or so.
An attempt to shift the narrative away from narrowing polls?
Huh, other than professional gamblers and saddos like us, nobody will be taking any notice of this.
Odd things get picked up, and amplified by the commentariat. It seems an odd thing for someone to do, but I could see some media figure running with it. "Well, the polls are narrowing a bit, which suggests a tighter result, but we are seeing some signs that point to people thinking a Tory majority remains increasingly likely..."
That is very interesting. Why has brexit not happened, "Because it will be bad for rich people and good for us, that is why they have fought it so hard."
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.
Did I catch it correctly, that they said Dom Cummings is the one behind these focus groups that CH4 sat in on?
They said "as so lovedby Domenic Cummings."
Labour strategists who've seen that Ch4 segment will not be sleeping tonight.
On topic. I have been thinking for weeks that most this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistenty to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good poll. So I introduce The Eggling. I can Eggling the last two polls. Survation Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 48 - 4 short of TV damage ICM Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 50 - 2 short of TV damage In a betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet on PV
Crickey....that focus group, I knew what Tony Blair stood for and I trusted him...I don't know what Corbyn stands for and I don't trust him....
As I say, devastating for Labour.
I know the area very well. Mixed. Marginal obviously. Lots of blue collar/lower middle class conservatives, but lots of solid Lab who vote the way their mams and dads did. If the latter are crumbling, then it is good night Jezza.
Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.
Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .
This is tomorrows media obssesion and maybe longer
Monarchy on the ropes during a GE. I can’t remember that ever happening before. Bad for the Tories?
Cannot see the connection to be fair
People equate the two, Johnson has reinforced that with his "monarchy is above reproach" shtick, and don't whatever you do mention David Rowland for the next couple of weeks. I have never heard of him - never, do you hear me? - and nor has the tory party.
I genuinely haven't heard of him - are you going to enlighten us or is this some sort of #innocentface thing?
Google him, perhaps? Business associate of Prince A whose business dealings are going to get at least as much attention as his party time activities in the weeks ahead, and nearly became Tory treasurer in 2010.
Did @HYUFD report back on the results of plugging that ICM poll into Electoral Calculus by any chance?
Don't know if that's meant as a serious request, but I did it anyway. Plugged the ICM numbers into the main prediction and used the most recent Scotland-only poll for parts North of the Tweed.
Result: Con 314, Lab 252, SNP 47, LD 15.
2017 part 2, right down to the DUP controlling (probably, just about) the balance of power. That'd be fun, wouldn't it?
Crickey....that focus group, I knew what Tony Blair stood for and I trusted him...I don't know what Corbyn stands for and I don't trust him....
How can people not know what Corbyn stands for? Why, he's that lifelong anti-racist campaigner who counter-intuitively finds it difficult to spot racism.
And may or may not recommend the public vote for the Brexit deal he negotiates.
That's just a sign of his cast iron principles to not take sides in a referendum. It's a recent cast iron principle, but cast iron nonetheless, any suggestion it is a cynical political fudge are an outright lie. Actually in all honesty I think that strategy has worked pretty well, but principled it ain't.
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
Snow in several places too.
When you say "staggeringly cold " and "never gets above zero" - are you talking absolute zero?
'Ice Day' which means maxima never getting above zero C. Factor in the significant windchill from the northerly and it would feel like -10C.
But it may not happen. These things usually don't!!!
It’s so cold my wife and daughter are fleeing to California for the winter
The extended forest fire season should keep them toasty......
We have one of the old homes that they built on the bits that don’t burn or flood
Crickey....that focus group, I knew what Tony Blair stood for and I trusted him...I don't know what Corbyn stands for and I don't trust him....
How can people not know what Corbyn stands for? Why, he's that lifelong anti-racist campaigner who counter-intuitively finds it difficult to spot racism.
LOL....in all seriousness, I find it difficult to square the circle of those statements. My first and foremost cricitism of Blair, not telling the truth, don't know what he stood for as I am not sure he always believed in it what he was saying.
Corbyn, I know exactly what he stands for and he believes it 100%, and thats exactly the problem.
Yes, people are just applying generic criticism sentences they have heard used by others before, to express a general dislike - the precise content is not necessarily what they really mean.
Same way people can say they think Boris is honest despite all evidence to the contrary. What (some amount at least) mean is they like him/support him nonetheless.
On topic. I have been thinking for weeks that most this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistenty to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good poll. So I introduce The Eggling. I can Eggling the last two polls. Survation Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 48 - 4 short of TV damage ICM Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 50 - 2 short of TV damage In a betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet on PV
That is very interesting. Why has brexit not happened, "Because it will be bad for rich people and good for us, that is why they have fought it so hard."
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.
Did I catch it correctly, that they said Dom Cummings is the one behind these focus groups that CH4 sat in on?
They said "as so lovedby Domenic Cummings."
Labour strategists who've seen that Ch4 segment will not be sleeping tonight.
Other than Hugh Grant and Maureen Lipman, it has been a surprising change how little celebs have got involved with this GE...normally by now we are getting the daily chain letters sent to the Guardian from them and on the other side business folk sending to the Telegraph.
Maybe they are finally getting the message it generally doesn't help any.
Yes that chimes with all the Vox Pops in the papers.
Labour are losing their English heartlands to the Tories, and on a large scale.
This is how Boris will - perhaps - get a majority without a very large lead in votes. Wealthy southern England will stay loyal because Corbyn. Unionist Scotland will stay Tory because Union. The southwest will stay Tory because Leave. Wales is a toss-up. But Boris will win enough red seats in the Midlands and the North to get a majority. And we shall Brexit. I reckon.
Yes it is the Trump factor, Yougov MRP had 44 mainly Leave seats going Tory much like the rustbelt went for Trump as the swing was biggest with the white working class (same story in Australia where the white working class in Queensland won it for Morrison).
Look at this map, huge Tory gains North of Watford, barely any in the South and London
If the Tories win thanks to these voters, what will they actually do to help them lead better lives? Do they just plan to follow the Republican strategy of letting them get poorer and angrier every year, and hope that the anger and resentment blinds them to the fact the Republicans really don't give a shit about them? Because if that's the way we're going I'm not sure I want to live here much longer.
Thomas the Tank Engine had to shut the hell up to save children everywhere - Tracy Van Slyke Classism, sexism, anti-environmentalism bordering on racism: any parent who discovered these hidden lessons will be glad the show’s star just quit Oh wait...I've got this troll the Guardian thing wrong haven't I....that was an actual article.
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
Snow in several places too.
When you say "staggeringly cold " and "never gets above zero" - are you talking absolute zero?
'Ice Day' which means maxima never getting above zero C. Factor in the significant windchill from the northerly and it would feel like -10C.
But it may not happen. These things usually don't!!!
It’s so cold my wife and daughter are fleeing to California for the winter
The extended forest fire season should keep them toasty......
We have one of the old homes that they built on the bits that don’t burn or flood
On topic. I have been thinking for weeks that most this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistenty to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good poll. So I introduce The Eggling. I can Eggling the last two polls. Survation Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 48 - 4 short of TV damage ICM Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 50 - 2 short of TV damage In a betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet on PV
Yes that chimes with all the Vox Pops in the papers.
Labour are losing their English heartlands to the Tories, and on a large scale.
This is how Boris will - perhaps - get a majority without a very large lead in votes. Wealthy southern England will stay loyal because Corbyn. Unionist Scotland will stay Tory because Union. The southwest will stay Tory because Leave. Wales is a toss-up. But Boris will win enough red seats in the Midlands and the North to get a majority. And we shall Brexit. I reckon.
Yes it is the Trump factor, Yougov MRP had 44 mainly Leave seats going Tory much like the rustbelt went for Trump as the swing was biggest with the white working class (same story in Australia where the white working class in Queensland won it for Morrison).
Look at this map, huge Tory gains North of Watford, barely any in the South and London
If the Tories win thanks to these voters, what will they actually do to help them lead better lives? Do they just plan to follow the Republican strategy of letting them get poorer and angrier every year, and hope that the anger and resentment blinds them to the fact the Republicans really don't give a shit about them? Because if that's the way we're going I'm not sure I want to live here much longer.
They will control immigration and restore sovereignty as they want while continuing to grow the economy
On topic. I have been thinking for weeks that most this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistenty to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good poll. So I introduce The Eggling. I can Eggling the last two polls. Survation Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 48 - 4 short of TV damage ICM Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 50 - 2 short of TV damage In a betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet on PV
On topic. I have been thinking for weeks that most this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistenty to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good poll. So I introduce The Eggling. I can Eggling the last two polls. Survation Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 48 - 4 short of TV damage ICM Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority Lab Lib green 50 - 2 short of TV damage In a betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet on PV
Yes that chimes with all the Vox Pops in the papers.
Labour are losing their English heartlands to the Tories, and on a large scale.
This is how Boris will - perhaps - get a majority without a very large lead in votes. Wealthy southern England will stay loyal because Corbyn. Unionist Scotland will stay Tory because Union. The southwest will stay Tory because Leave. Wales is a toss-up. But Boris will win enough red seats in the Midlands and the North to get a majority. And we shall Brexit. I reckon.
Yes it is the Trump factor, Yougov MRP had 44 mainly Leave seats going Tory much like the rustbelt went for Trump as the swing was biggest with the white working class (same story in Australia where the white working class in Queensland won it for Morrison).
Look at this map, huge Tory gains North of Watford, barely any in the South and London
If the Tories win thanks to these voters, what will they actually do to help them lead better lives? Do they just plan to follow the Republican strategy of letting them get poorer and angrier every year, and hope that the anger and resentment blinds them to the fact the Republicans really don't give a shit about them? Because if that's the way we're going I'm not sure I want to live here much longer.
That is very interesting. Why has brexit not happened, "Because it will be bad for rich people and good for us, that is why they have fought it so hard."
Also destroys the myth the Boris is loathed, they mock his affairs but still are prepared to vote for him.
Did I catch it correctly, that they said Dom Cummings is the one behind these focus groups that CH4 sat in on?
No, I think they said he was behind similar focus groups that were run before the Brexit vote.
Talked to a number of floating voters today who were appalled by Johnson's TV interview yesterday and as a result will definitely not be voting Tory.
Anecdotal but he's pissed off a lot of people around my way
But who can people vote for? We hear reports of Labour haemmoraging support, apparently Boris is disliked, the polls say he is on for anything from minority govt to a landslide and the LDs have disappeared from sight. Who the heck can people vote for? I am not expecting Caroline Lucas PM who else is left? Farage?
That's what points the way back to 2017. Most people won't vote for something, they'll vote against. Terrified Tories go to Johnson to stop Corbyn, despondent Labourites cling to Corbyn to stop the Tories. Everyone else gets crushed in the middle.
Except this time the Tories are winning 73% of Leave voters
Total abolition of tuition fees is bound to be Labour's final gambit. Expect the policy to be announced at the weekend.
Maybe reducing the interest rate to zero rather than outright cancellation?
No sign of it in the grey book.
Labour's grey book contains all sorts of interesting details on how they plan to fund their spending commitments.
Except for £400bn for the state investment bank, £250bn for the state investment fund, £200bn (at a guess) for the nationalisation programme, £58bn to throw at the WASPI women, and God alone knows what else that they've already made up on the spot, or will do during the remaining nine days of the campaign.
Is there anything else that I missed?
BBC More Or Less did a good run down of the corporate taxation changes (not just corporation taxes, but capital gains and tax in investments). A point I haven’t seen made elsewhere. That the changes together take the UK from the lower to middle end of corporate taxation to the top or nearer it. Substantially more than Germany.
What's the point of promising to write off anything if nobody believes the promise is remotely credible? I doubt the majority of Labour voters themselves believe the figures that are being bandied about can ever be delivered.
I imagine the point is to gamble it won't put off anyone already swayed to vote Labour - out of principle and support for the policies, or fear of Tories, or for electoral bribes for unprinciple, deceitful whiners like the WASPI women - and will hopefully ensure there really is a youthquake turnout this time, or at least that it will be about what it was last time.
The current system is unsustainable as is, the Tories are just letting it chug along and Labour are going to chuck money at it in the hope that solves the problem. Neither have any interest in to getting at the root causes.
Other than Hugh Grant and Maureen Lipman, it has been a surprising change how little celebs have got involved with this GE...normally by now we are getting the daily chain letters sent to the Guardian from them and on the other side business folk sending to the Telegraph.
It's because they are banging on about politics on Twitter *all year round* these days.
I'm sorta pleased that the likes of Rachel Riley and Tracy Ann Oberman don't like Corbyn and are calling out his racism, but, well, it's got pretty damn monotonous hearing it every single day for months and months on end.
And don't get me started on former comedians David Schneider and Armando Iannucci...
Yes that chimes with all the Vox Pops in the papers.
Labour are losing their English heartlands to the Tories, and on a large scale.
This is how Boris will - perhaps - get a majority without a very large lead in votes. Wealthy southern England will stay loyal because Corbyn. Unionist Scotland will stay Tory because Union. The southwest will stay Tory because Leave. Wales is a toss-up. But Boris will win enough red seats in the Midlands and the North to get a majority. And we shall Brexit. I reckon.
Yes it is the Trump factor, Yougov MRP had 44 mainly Leave seats going Tory much like the rustbelt went for Trump as the swing was biggest with the white working class (same story in Australia where the white working class in Queensland won it for Morrison).
Look at this map, huge Tory gains North of Watford, barely any in the South and London
If the Tories win thanks to these voters, what will they actually do to help them lead better lives? Do they just plan to follow the Republican strategy of letting them get poorer and angrier every year, and hope that the anger and resentment blinds them to the fact the Republicans really don't give a shit about them? Because if that's the way we're going I'm not sure I want to live here much longer.
Not really a Tory myself but I think you've misunderstood Conservative philosophy, which is that most of the time it's up to people to better themselves, not the job of the government to do things for them. You vote Labour if you strongly believe that.
Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
Nope.
Most of the obvious campaining around Broxtowe ward has been by Labour, I've had one flyer from Anna Soubry and that's it. But then that was true in 2017 and she won.
Which bit do you live in? Beeston is very much a Labour town and it's easy to put up a convincing show there, but the hinterland - Nuthall, Greasley, Trowell -is spread out and campaigning there is largely invisible.
My contacts say, like the MRP poll, that Soubry's campaign is falling well short, partly for lack of organisation (she has some local celeb support, but the LibDems footsoldiers are not very keen), as well as the entrenched strength of the Tory and Labour armies, who have been fighting the seat tooth and nail in every election since 1997. With contact rates north of 50%, both parties know exactly where their potential supporters and waverers are.
The Tories are favourites, because Soubry as an arch-Remainer is taking more from Labour - the Labour vote there is heavily Remain even though the constituency voted Leave. On the other hand, the Labour candidate is lifelong local, while the Tory is entirely new. I'm going up on Friday to help for the rest of the election but I expect it to be tough.
Crickey....that focus group, I knew what Tony Blair stood for and I trusted him...I don't know what Corbyn stands for and I don't trust him....
How can people not know what Corbyn stands for? Why, he's that lifelong anti-racist campaigner who counter-intuitively finds it difficult to spot racism.
LOL....in all seriousness, I find it difficult to square the circle of those statements. My first and foremost cricitism of Blair, not telling the truth, don't know what he stood for as I am not sure he always believed in it what he was saying.
Corbyn, I know exactly what he stands for and he believes it 100%, and thats exactly the problem.
Yes, people are just applying generic criticism sentences they have heard used by others before, to express a general dislike - the precise content is not necessarily what they really mean.
Many years ago I was sat on a jury which was fairly evenly divided as to the defendant's guilt. There were a couple of jurors who were adamant he was guilty, but hopelessly inarticulate as to why they thought so, and a couple of others who were equally adamant as to his innocence, but likewise were unable to say why. Like most of the jury, I was fairly undecided but on balance leaned towards guilty - and I gave my reason. No sooner had I done so than the two who were convinced he was guilty pounced on it and said - 'Yes, that's why WE think he's guilty.' In other words, they just wanted to send the poor sod down, and were looking for any reason to do so. My rationale provided them with one.
I think it works similarly with voting for many people. They know who they want to support, and then look for a reason to justify it.
Regarding the ongoing discussion about guards on trains. Due to a combination of strike action, signalling problems, maintenance work and a fatality, it looked at some point tonight that I might not reach my destination. During this period the guards tried to help by suggesting alternate routes or nearby hotels. This prevented an annoying situation becoming a frightening and dangerous one (it's too cold to sleep in a station tonight) and although it still might end badly, it won't go frozen-corpse-in-the-morning-frost. So if anybody still believes that guards are superfluous, please take this as testimony to the contrary.
Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.
Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .
Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
I am going to make myself unpopular I know. But here goes anyway: so was Carl Beech. If she thinks a crime was committed against her or by an individual, she should be reporting it to the police and giving evidence in court in a trial. Not on prime time TV. Trial by television is abhorrent and unfair. People can prepare and rehearse their stories. This is not testimony, properly tested and challenged and corroborated, in any sense. I have no idea who is or is not telling the truth. But I do know that this is not the way to find out the truth about what Epstein did or to take the appropriate legal action against others who may have committed criminal acts. And even Andrew, dim as he appears to be, deserves the benefit of the law.
Regarding the ongoing discussion about guards on trains. Due to a combination of strike action, signalling problems, maintenance work and a fatality, it looked at some point tonight that I might not reach my destination. During this period the guards tried to help by suggesting alternate routes or nearby hotels. This prevented an annoying situation becoming a frightening and dangerous one (it's too cold to sleep in a station tonight) and although it still might end badly, it won't go frozen-corpse-in-the-morning-frost. So if anybody still believes that guards are superfluous, please take this as testimony to the contrary.
One of the lesser known features of our train system is that the TOCs are pretty much obliged to get you to your final destination station if problems occur.
Panorama is turning into a horror show for Prince Andrew.
Virginia Roberts seems very convincing .
Grim. Her testimony cut with his excuses is very powerful.
I am going to make myself unpopular I know. But here goes anyway: so was Carl Beech. If she thinks a crime was committed against her or by an individual, she should be reporting it to the police and giving evidence in court in a trial. Not on prime time TV. Trial by television is abhorrent and unfair. People can prepare and rehearse their stories. This is not testimony, properly tested and challenged and corroborated, in any sense. I have no idea who is or is not telling the truth. But I do know that this is not the way to find out the truth about what Epstein did or to take the appropriate legal action against others who may have committed criminal acts. And even Andrew, dim as he appears to be, deserves the benefit of the law.
She did - she reported it to The Met. Who did nothing. It was in the documentary.
Regarding the ongoing discussion about guards on trains. Due to a combination of strike action, signalling problems, maintenance work and a fatality, it looked at some point tonight that I might not reach my destination. During this period the guards tried to help by suggesting alternate routes or nearby hotels. This prevented an annoying situation becoming a frightening and dangerous one (it's too cold to sleep in a station tonight) and although it still might end badly, it won't go frozen-corpse-in-the-morning-frost. So if anybody still believes that guards are superfluous, please take this as testimony to the contrary.
One of the lesser known features of our train system is that the TOCs are pretty much obliged to get you to your final destination station if problems occur.
I'll bear that in mind, thank you. In the event of it going genuinely bad, does one collar a guard and say "get me a taxi". In many cases if no trains are running there may be no alternative.
Stand up comedy at the moment is absolutely shit all round. The likes of Romesh Ranganathan are the big stars, their gags are just so tame and dull, and his sitcom is even worse.
Haven't heard much from Momentum this election, have they just been quietly getting on with it as last time?
Pretty much. I get WhatsApp messages from them every day urging me to do this and that. I do about half of them, all I've time for.
Perhaps Nick can tell us if Labour has given up on Bishop Aukland and Darlington? Where is the NE firewall now, Nick? For betting purposes like.
Your sense of innocent enquiry is endearing, but I haven't a clue about what's happening north of Nottingham, and my WhatsApp stuff is all about southern seats.
What about in your old seat. Is Ms Soubry going to win?
Nope.
Most of the obvious campaining around Broxtowe ward has been by Labour, I've had one flyer from Anna Soubry and that's it. But then that was true in 2017 and she won.
Which bit do you live in? Beeston is very much a Labour town and it's easy to put up a convincing show there, but the hinterland - Nuthall, Greasley, Trowell -is spread out and campaigning there is largely invisible.
My contacts say, like the MRP poll, that Soubry's campaign is falling well short, partly for lack of organisation (she has some local celeb support, but the LibDems footsoldiers are not very keen), as well as the entrenched strength of the Tory and Labour armies, who have been fighting the seat tooth and nail in every election since 1997. With contact rates north of 50%, both parties know exactly where their potential supporters and waverers are.
The Tories are favourites, because Soubry as an arch-Remainer is taking more from Labour - the Labour vote there is heavily Remain even though the constituency voted Leave. On the other hand, the Labour candidate is lifelong local, while the Tory is entirely new. I'm going up on Friday to help for the rest of the election but I expect it to be tough.
Beeston, near the tram line. I pass by the local Labour office here every day, I shall wave towards it on friday. I have not decided whom to vote for yet tbh, but I am not impressed with Labour or the Tories currently. One more massive spending promise from Labour knocks them out entirely.
The Abbott one is quite funny, the others less so. The Corbyn effort is a fail because it isn't clear whether the grammatical error is his or the scriptwriter's.
Regarding the ongoing discussion about guards on trains. Due to a combination of strike action, signalling problems, maintenance work and a fatality, it looked at some point tonight that I might not reach my destination. During this period the guards tried to help by suggesting alternate routes or nearby hotels. This prevented an annoying situation becoming a frightening and dangerous one (it's too cold to sleep in a station tonight) and although it still might end badly, it won't go frozen-corpse-in-the-morning-frost. So if anybody still believes that guards are superfluous, please take this as testimony to the contrary.
One of the lesser known features of our train system is that the TOCs are pretty much obliged to get you to your final destination station if problems occur.
I'll bear that in mind, thank you. In the event of it going genuinely bad, does one collar a guard and say "get me a taxi". In many cases if no trains are running there may be no alternative.
I have had that happen. Train couldn’t stop at my destination due to a body on the line, so they stopped at the next one. I was the only passenger who wanted to go to my station so they got and paid for a taxi for me.
Regarding the ongoing discussion about guards on trains. Due to a combination of strike action, signalling problems, maintenance work and a fatality, it looked at some point tonight that I might not reach my destination. During this period the guards tried to help by suggesting alternate routes or nearby hotels. This prevented an annoying situation becoming a frightening and dangerous one (it's too cold to sleep in a station tonight) and although it still might end badly, it won't go frozen-corpse-in-the-morning-frost. So if anybody still believes that guards are superfluous, please take this as testimony to the contrary.
One of the lesser known features of our train system is that the TOCs are pretty much obliged to get you to your final destination station if problems occur.
I'll bear that in mind, thank you. In the event of it going genuinely bad, does one collar a guard and say "get me a taxi". In many cases if no trains are running there may be no alternative.
Basically, yes - but more likely someone on the station. AFAIK, the guards themselves have less power to make that sort of decision.
I was at Waterloo last summer when there was a massive points failure. Last train cancelled. We were put in a taxi back to Dorset.
Comments
Con 347
Lab 217
SNP 40
LD 24
PC 3
Grn 1
https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/42/35/13/3/3/3.1/0.2/0.7
Obvs forecasts this far out are still a bit guessy - but nothing as far as I can see to suggest any major problems. Maybe I just haven't looked in the right places?
So I introduce The Eggling.
I can Eggling the last two polls.
Survation
Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority
Lab Lib green 48 - 4 short of TV damage
ICM
Tory + Brex 45 - Boris wins majority
Lab Lib green 50 - 2 short of TV damage
In a betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet on PV
Labour are losing their English heartlands to the Tories, and on a large scale.
This is how Boris will - perhaps - get a majority without a very large lead in votes. Wealthy southern England will stay loyal because Corbyn. Unionist Scotland will stay Tory because Union. The southwest will stay Tory because Leave. Wales is a toss-up. But Boris will win enough red seats in the Midlands and the North to get a majority. And we shall Brexit. I reckon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017
Do adjustments lead to better performance? Is the methodology of the past suitable to today?
Very hard to assess how polls will perform in advance!
Are we sure that CH4 focus group was ex-Labour voters, not Tory ones?
Absolutely terrible for Labour.
I'm on Tory gain for Northfield. Now at 1.84
It chimes with the Delta subsets I posted earlier today. Corbyn's net approval is -51 in the Midlands, -42 in the North. Johnson is at -4 and +7 respectively.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
Corbyn, I know exactly what he stands for and he believes it 100%, and thats exactly the problem.
2017: Polls on average understated Labour
2019: ?
If anything its a strata of core Tory (or now former Tory) opinion which is among the most implacably opposed to him, in a similar way to ex-Labour types like Austin and Woodcock being the most virulently anti-Corbyn. Their previous connection seems to amplify the dislike, while normal voters even on the opposite side do not feel the same fervour.
Look at this map, huge Tory gains North of Watford, barely any in the South and London
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199812713100263424?s=20
MP is Richard Burden. Not Richard Burgon. So close.
Click on the graph icon at the start of the market.
? On the button ?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1Y6206
I know the area very well. Mixed. Marginal obviously. Lots of blue collar/lower middle class conservatives, but lots of solid Lab who vote the way their mams and dads did. If the latter are crumbling, then it is good night Jezza.
Actually in all honesty I think that strategy has worked pretty well, but principled it ain't.
built on the bits that don’t burn or flood
Is interesting, we have had and Aaron Banks twitter hack in the space of a week or so.
If it falls then Jezza is gone.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/14/concerns-about-antisemitism-mean-we-cannot-vote-labour
*Delete according to your own tastes
Classism, sexism, anti-environmentalism bordering on racism: any parent who discovered these hidden lessons will be glad the show’s star just quit
Oh wait...I've got this troll the Guardian thing wrong haven't I....that was an actual article.
I hope someone has a Mail version of this.
It's because they are banging on about politics on Twitter *all year round* these days.
I'm sorta pleased that the likes of Rachel Riley and Tracy Ann Oberman don't like Corbyn and are calling out his racism, but, well, it's got pretty damn monotonous hearing it every single day for months and months on end.
And don't get me started on former comedians David Schneider and Armando Iannucci...
My contacts say, like the MRP poll, that Soubry's campaign is falling well short, partly for lack of organisation (she has some local celeb support, but the LibDems footsoldiers are not very keen), as well as the entrenched strength of the Tory and Labour armies, who have been fighting the seat tooth and nail in every election since 1997. With contact rates north of 50%, both parties know exactly where their potential supporters and waverers are.
The Tories are favourites, because Soubry as an arch-Remainer is taking more from Labour - the Labour vote there is heavily Remain even though the constituency voted Leave. On the other hand, the Labour candidate is lifelong local, while the Tory is entirely new. I'm going up on Friday to help for the rest of the election but I expect it to be tough.
I think it works similarly with voting for many people. They know who they want to support, and then look for a reason to justify it.
Nite all.
Due to a combination of strike action, signalling problems, maintenance work and a fatality, it looked at some point tonight that I might not reach my destination. During this period the guards tried to help by suggesting alternate routes or nearby hotels. This prevented an annoying situation becoming a frightening and dangerous one (it's too cold to sleep in a station tonight) and although it still might end badly, it won't go frozen-corpse-in-the-morning-frost.
So if anybody still believes that guards are superfluous, please take this as testimony to the contrary.
She seems like a chip off the old block.
Oh no they're not.
But here goes anyway: so was Carl Beech.
If she thinks a crime was committed against her or by an individual, she should be reporting it to the police and giving evidence in court in a trial. Not on prime time TV. Trial by television is abhorrent and unfair. People can prepare and rehearse their stories. This is not testimony, properly tested and challenged and corroborated, in any sense.
I have no idea who is or is not telling the truth. But I do know that this is not the way to find out the truth about what Epstein did or to take the appropriate legal action against others who may have committed criminal acts. And even Andrew, dim as he appears to be, deserves the benefit of the law.
I have not decided whom to vote for yet tbh, but I am not impressed with Labour or the Tories currently. One more massive spending promise from Labour knocks them out entirely.
I was at Waterloo last summer when there was a massive points failure. Last train cancelled. We were put in a taxi back to Dorset.