Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Obviously, since those numbers are from a YouGov poll showing the Tories with a lead of around 10pp and hence winning a majority. If the poll is wrong then those numbers will be wrong and the Tories might not win a majority. (I think they will win a majority of around 40 FWIW, but it's not nailed on). You're better off focusing on the poll as a whole rather than just pulling some cross-tabs out and extrapolating from that.
The biggest swing to the Tories is in the North and Midlands, full of marginals, Boris is doing a Trump and sweeping the white working class
Leaflet count here in Barnsley East: Conservative - Nothing Labour - Addressed leaflet through the post to my wife Brexit Party - Leaflet through the post, hand delivered addressed letter today and targeted facebook ads. The Brexit Party are certainly targeting here (understandably). They have also taken out a full front page ad in the Barnsley Chronicle this week.
Looks like the Tories giving the Brexit Party a free run in Barnsley then
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Full house here for Ken Clarke, though the seats on stage look hideously uncomfortable, especially for a 79 year old. Always many more men here than women.
Just done some calculations on the 'surges' for Labour and the Conservative by pollster from the start of the campaign, which I'm defining as 30th October (the vote) to the situation now, broken down by pollster.
Firstly according to Wikipedia and adding in today's ICM... We have had the following number of polls from each company since 30th October (fieldwork ending date used)
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Just to remind you that the draw for the third round of the FA Cup takes place on BBC2 soon. I was at Rochdale yesterday to follow the lads, and they deserved the draw. So come on, Brexit United from the Vanarama North. An away tie at Old Trafford would do the trick.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
Obviously, since those numbers are from a YouGov poll showing the Tories with a lead of around 10pp and hence winning a majority. If the poll is wrong then those numbers will be wrong and the Tories might not win a majority. (I think they will win a majority of around 40 FWIW, but it's not nailed on). You're better off focusing on the poll as a whole rather than just pulling some cross-tabs out and extrapolating from that.
The biggest swing to the Tories is in the North and Midlands, full of marginals, Boris is doing a Trump and sweeping the white working class
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
Mike, how could you have approved of the text without knowing which constituencies it was going to? The text makes statements about the constituencies which is true about some and not others and furthermore implies that you're making the statement about thay specific constituency based on your polling expertise. How is that okay?
That is the point. There was a cock-up and I didn't see the list of seats before the mailing went out which is why I've tried to clarify things above.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
I’m afraid you’ve been shafted. Edit: sorry, see I was beaten to it.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Yes, Easington was by quite some distance Labour’s safest seat in County Durham in 2017 - a 41-point lead over the second-place Conservatives. The YouGov MRP has the gap down to 22, a big swing but till safe.
Obviously, since those numbers are from a YouGov poll showing the Tories with a lead of around 10pp and hence winning a majority. If the poll is wrong then those numbers will be wrong and the Tories might not win a majority. (I think they will win a majority of around 40 FWIW, but it's not nailed on). You're better off focusing on the poll as a whole rather than just pulling some cross-tabs out and extrapolating from that.
The biggest swing to the Tories is in the North and Midlands, full of marginals, Boris is doing a Trump and sweeping the white working class
Possible
If he isnt its odds on NOM
Yougov MRP shows it is, in fact in 9 forecast Tory gains the Tories lead is 8% or more, the Tories need only 8 gains for a majority, less excluding Sinn Fein
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Yes, Easington was by quite some distance Labour’s safest seat in County Durham in 2017 - a 41-point lead over the second-place Conservatives. The YouGov MRP has the gap down to 22, a big swing but till safe.
Older Easingtonians may remember their MP Manny Shinwell, in the days when the Labour vote was weighed not counted, recall that his great niece is Luciana Berger and pause for reflection before voting for an anti Semitic party.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
I’m afraid you’ve been shafted.
Somebody got in a pit ahead of you there.
Mine is the shale.
*Beams*
The lib dems will never PROP up a Johnson or Corbyn government
I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)
Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle. Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
Surely no one but Labour could win Bootle. It is not exactly Tory Heartlands....
They could at least post a solitary leaflet. Not that it would happen with Bootle, but over time safe seats can become contestable and they should put at least token effort in in case that should happen.
I know Bootle well and it has improved a lot over the years, but it is still more detestable than contestable. The leafy suburbs are on the other side of the city centre - Aigburth, Mossley Hill, Walton, etc.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Yes, Easington was by quite some distance Labour’s safest seat in County Durham in 2017 - a 41-point lead over the second-place Conservatives. The YouGov MRP has the gap down to 22, a big swing but till safe.
Older Easingtonians may remember their MP Manny Shinwell, in the days when the Labour vote was weighed not counted, recall that his great niece is Luciana Berger and pause for reflection before voting for an anti Semitic party.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
I’m afraid you’ve been shafted.
Somebody got in a pit ahead of you there.
Mine is the shale.
*Beams*
The lib dems will never PROP up a Johnson or Corbyn government
I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)
Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle. Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
Surely no one but Labour could win Bootle. It is not exactly Tory Heartlands....
They could at least post a solitary leaflet. Not that it would happen with Bootle, but over time safe seats can become contestable and they should put at least token effort in in case that should happen.
I know Bootle well and it has improved a lot over the years, but it is still more detestable than contestable. The leafy suburbs are on the other side of the city centre - Aigburth, Mossley Hill, Walton, etc.
Leaflet count here in Barnsley East: Conservative - Nothing Labour - Addressed leaflet through the post to my wife Brexit Party - Leaflet through the post, hand delivered addressed letter today and targeted facebook ads. The Brexit Party are certainly targeting here (understandably). They have also taken out a full front page ad in the Barnsley Chronicle this week.
Looks like the Tories giving the Brexit Party a free run in Barnsley then
I suppose they owe Lord Farage something for pulling out of Tory seats.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
I’m afraid you’ve been shafted.
Somebody got in a pit ahead of you there.
Mine is the shale.
*Beams*
The lib dems will never PROP up a Johnson or Corbyn government
How can we be having a general election? The tree is up, roaring fire, frosty outside, White Christmas on the telly. It's inhuman, I tell you.
Young people hoping a man with a white beard will bring them everything on their wish list, and then being disappointed when they discover all he has to offer them is a battered old tangerine....
Does anyone know if this a genuine Graph of YG MRP
If so very significant for next one and for chances of NOM
I think this is something that has been made up by inferences from that slide on the presentation before MRP was released showing the poll lead increasing/decreasing by day together with the topline 11%.
Certainty doesn't look like an official YouGov graph.
Some speculation on Twitter that Lab might be in difficulties in Easington, which seems unlikely.
Yeah, bizarre. That's landslide territory.
I think when I looked that this was Labour's safest seat in Co. Durham, or one of them. If Labour can't hold onto Easington then (a) they really are fucked and (b) memories of the miners' strike must have faded a lot more than I'd have thought.
Manny Shinwell's old seat. We are talking the heart of the heartlands.
Are they giving his memory the coaled shoulder?
Stop digging.
I fear I have already cast. We will drift into a punning contest.
I’m afraid you’ve been shafted.
Somebody got in a pit ahead of you there.
Mine is the shale.
*Beams*
The lib dems will never PROP up a Johnson or Corbyn government
They will only rail against them.
Stope now please!
You’ll have to pry the pun machine out of his coal damp hands...
How can we be having a general election? The tree is up, roaring fire, frosty outside, White Christmas on the telly. It's inhuman, I tell you.
Young people hoping a man with a white beard will bring them everything on their wish list, and then being disappointed when they discover all he has to offer them is a battered old tangerine....
That’s a very good parallel. The only problem is I now have a mental image of Diane Abbott as an elf.
I got my first personlly addressed election leaflet today, from Labour (last week they just shoved a leaflet through the door)
Still waiting for ANY leaflet here in Bootle. Reckon I'll be waiting a long time.
Surely no one but Labour could win Bootle. It is not exactly Tory Heartlands....
They could at least post a solitary leaflet. Not that it would happen with Bootle, but over time safe seats can become contestable and they should put at least token effort in in case that should happen.
I know Bootle well and it has improved a lot over the years, but it is still more detestable than contestable. The leafy suburbs are on the other side of the city centre - Aigburth, Mossley Hill, Walton, etc.
Walton?????? I think not. You may mean woolton.
Yes the bit of Liverpool I grew up in
I think you will agree the two districts are somewhat dissimilar
How can we be having a general election? The tree is up, roaring fire, frosty outside, White Christmas on the telly. It's inhuman, I tell you.
Young people hoping a man with a white beard will bring them everything on their wish list, and then being disappointed when they discover all he has to offer them is a battered old tangerine....
That’s a very good parallel. The only problem is I now have a mental image of Diane Abbott as an elf.
How can we be having a general election? The tree is up, roaring fire, frosty outside, White Christmas on the telly. It's inhuman, I tell you.
Young people hoping a man with a white beard will bring them everything on their wish list, and then being disappointed when they discover all he has to offer them is a battered old tangerine....
That’s a very good parallel. The only problem is I now have a mental image of Diane Abbott as an elf.
How can we be having a general election? The tree is up, roaring fire, frosty outside, White Christmas on the telly. It's inhuman, I tell you.
Young people hoping a man with a white beard will bring them everything on their wish list, and then being disappointed when they discover all he has to offer them is a battered old tangerine....
That’s a very good parallel. The only problem is I now have a mental image of Diane Abbott as an elf.
Leaflet count here in Barnsley East: Conservative - Nothing Labour - Addressed leaflet through the post to my wife Brexit Party - Leaflet through the post, hand delivered addressed letter today and targeted facebook ads. The Brexit Party are certainly targeting here (understandably). They have also taken out a full front page ad in the Barnsley Chronicle this week.
Looks like the Tories giving the Brexit Party a free run in Barnsley then
I suppose they owe Lord Farage something for pulling out of Tory seats.
To be fair, I think there will be a Conservative leaflet coming in the post, and that is as much as we ever get here, unless the candidate finances his own.
How can we be having a general election? The tree is up, roaring fire, frosty outside, White Christmas on the telly. It's inhuman, I tell you.
Young people hoping a man with a white beard will bring them everything on their wish list, and then being disappointed when they discover all he has to offer them is a battered old tangerine....
That’s a very good parallel. The only problem is I now have a mental image of Diane Abbott as an elf.
Leaflet count here in Barnsley East: Conservative - Nothing Labour - Addressed leaflet through the post to my wife Brexit Party - Leaflet through the post, hand delivered addressed letter today and targeted facebook ads. The Brexit Party are certainly targeting here (understandably). They have also taken out a full front page ad in the Barnsley Chronicle this week.
Looks like the Tories giving the Brexit Party a free run in Barnsley then
I suppose they owe Lord Farage something for pulling out of Tory seats.
To be fair, I think there will be a Conservative leaflet coming in the post, and that is as much as we ever get here, unless the candidate finances his own.
I had Labour’s official leaflet today. It was about as much use as a cat flap in an elephant house.
Quakers for Corbyn 🌹 @quakers4corbyn · 5h I canvassed Putney on Friday and was told on the doorstep that LibDems are spamming letterboxes with those misleading bar charts and that dodgy letter from Mike Smithson. Here's the truth for folks in lovely #Putney Quote Tweet
What would be useful is a daily round up of where the party leaders have visited. This will hopefully show the battlefield.
Newsnight did that for the campaign to date about a fortnight ago. Possible they might have something up on the BBC website, and they might update it again in the days to come.
Leaflet count here in Barnsley East: Conservative - Nothing Labour - Addressed leaflet through the post to my wife Brexit Party - Leaflet through the post, hand delivered addressed letter today and targeted facebook ads. The Brexit Party are certainly targeting here (understandably). They have also taken out a full front page ad in the Barnsley Chronicle this week.
Looks like the Tories giving the Brexit Party a free run in Barnsley then
I suppose they owe Lord Farage something for pulling out of Tory seats.
To be fair, I think there will be a Conservative leaflet coming in the post, and that is as much as we ever get here, unless the candidate finances his own.
You feel let down they promised you the earth but they never write and they never call.
How can we be having a general election? The tree is up, roaring fire, frosty outside, White Christmas on the telly. It's inhuman, I tell you.
Young people hoping a man with a white beard will bring them everything on their wish list, and then being disappointed when they discover all he has to offer them is a battered old tangerine....
That’s a very good parallel. The only problem is I now have a mental image of Diane Abbott as an elf.
Is that three threads in a row you’ve copy and pasted that? Do you suffer from feelings of inadequacy if you don’t genuflect at the feet of The Clown every half hour?
Leaflet count here in Barnsley East: Conservative - Nothing Labour - Addressed leaflet through the post to my wife Brexit Party - Leaflet through the post, hand delivered addressed letter today and targeted facebook ads. The Brexit Party are certainly targeting here (understandably). They have also taken out a full front page ad in the Barnsley Chronicle this week.
Looks like the Tories giving the Brexit Party a free run in Barnsley then
I'm in the Barnsley Central seat and the only leaflet I've received is from the Brexit Party also a Brexit Party presence in the town over last couple of weekends. I notice the MRP had The BXP second to Labour.
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
So the Conservatives have outsurged Labour in ComRes, Deltapoll, Survation and Kantar
They have both surged the same in ICM
Labour have outsurged the Conservatives in YouGov, Panelbase, Opinium and BMG
So in even more summarised form, a turd of a month for LibDem
I don't think anything like this level of LD shit-show was predicted by anybody a month ago.
Allowing for the odd survey above or below the trend, the Lib Dems have now been flatlining at 13% for around ten days.
If they stay there then, unless the current Con percentage includes a lot of ex-Labour Leavers and Corbynsceptics who go all wobbly and run back home by polling day, Johnson ought to win.
However, if the yellows collapse back down to bedrock then the vote shares start to look very like 2017 again, and we're almost certainly in for another Hung Parliament.
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
Snow in several places too.
You do know those of us who live in the north and Scotland are well versed in cold weather, ice days and snow. Living sub zero is a requirement for many of us from the north but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero. Snow in several places too.
Which forecast is that?!? I looked at the ECMWF forecast half an hour ago and decided it was so benign it wasn't worth mentioning.
The tories are playing the game well they leave the battlefield open to ensure labour close the gap, they can not afford for people to think they are going to win easily so ease off the gas, let labour gain a few points, put the fear of god up tories. Then in the last week, when labour start to become more confident hit them with both barrels whilst quietly weaseling away in the background sowing seeds of doubt in possible defectors. Tory majority 60 - 80 lab 180 - 200
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
Snow in several places too.
You do know those of us who live in the north and Scotland are well versed in cold weather, ice days and snow. Living sub zero is a requirement for many of us from the north but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
It has been sub zero all weekend at mine! Was out and about as normal, Edinburgh was mobbed. You don't really need to start wrapping up warm until it hits minus five or below. Blokes in Scotland stop wearing shorts around minus 15.
What would be useful is a daily round up of where the party leaders have visited. This will hopefully show the battlefield.
Newsnight did that for the campaign to date about a fortnight ago. Possible they might have something up on the BBC website, and they might update it again in the days to come.
In the last few days Corbyn has been in Scarborough & Whitby (Con majority: 2,914) and Calder Valley (Con by 609).
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
Snow in several places too.
You do know those of us who live in the north and Scotland are well versed in cold weather, ice days and snow. Living sub zero is a requirement for many of us from the north but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
It has been sub zero all weekend at mine! Was out and about as normal, Edinburgh was mobbed. You don't really need to start wrapping up warm until it hits minus five or below. Blokes in Scotland stop wearing shorts around minus 15.
I go back into jeans sub 20 and heating goes on below 17.
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
The tories are playing the game well they leave the battlefield open to ensure labour close the gap, they can not afford for people to think they are going to win easily so ease off the gas, let labour gain a few points, put the fear of god up tories. Then in the last week, when labour start to become more confident hit them with both barrels whilst quietly weaseling away in the background sowing seeds of doubt in possible defectors. Tory majority 60 - 80 lab 180 - 200
Are any of our major political parties (the SNP excepted) that competent? The Tories will just be trying to sell Get Brexit Done to the Labour Leavers as enthusiastically as possible, whilst praying that they don't morph back into robotic voters in the polling booth. That and hoping that all the nice middle class, soft centre-right people who hate Brexit but hate Corbyn even more don't re-order their priorities and switch from Lib Dem to Labour as well.
If the Conservatives do pull this one off they will have got very lucky.
How can we be having a general election? The tree is up, roaring fire, frosty outside, White Christmas on the telly. It's inhuman, I tell you.
Young people hoping a man with a white beard will bring them everything on their wish list, and then being disappointed when they discover all he has to offer them is a battered old tangerine....
However it is the other bloke who has a reputation for turning up, emptying his sack and then disappearing into the night.
Election Day looking staggeringly cold on the latest model outputs. Much of the north and Scotland are at the moment set to have an 'Ice Day' i.e. a day in which the maxima never gets above zero.
Snow in several places too.
You do know those of us who live in the north and Scotland are well versed in cold weather, ice days and snow. Living sub zero is a requirement for many of us from the north but like most things we do not expect southerners to have a clue
According to the BBC weather forecast up here in Lancashire it won't go below 4 degrees all day; we call that a heatwave. And our posties are all still wearing shorts, thank you very much.
Comments
https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-general-election-2019-poll-5/
ICM tables:
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ICM-Voting-intentions-Data-tables-29-Nov-02-Dec-19.xlsx
Jester 43
Jeza 25
Jo(ke) 11
Jester unchanged Corbyn up 3 TS down a lot
Always many more men here than women.
Firstly according to Wikipedia and adding in today's ICM... We have had the following number of polls from each company since 30th October (fieldwork ending date used)
YouGov 12
SavantaComRes 9
Panelbase 5
Deltapoll 5
ICM Research 5
Opinium 5
Survation 4
BMG 4
Kantar 3
Ipsos MORI 1
ORB 1
Obviously no comparisons for MORI and ORB because they've only released one poll.
YouGov:
39% for Conservatives and 27% for Labour on 1/11
43% for Conservatives and 34% for Labour on 29/11
Surge of 4% for the Conservatives and 7% for Labour
ComRes/SavantaComRes:
36% for Conservatives and 28% for Labour on 31/10
43% for Conservatives and 33% for Labour on 28/11
Surge of 7% for the Conservatives and 5% for Labour
Panelbase:
40% for Conservatives and 29% for Labour on 31/10
42% for Conservatives and 34% for Labour on 28/11
Surge of 2% for the Conservatives and 5% for Labour
Deltapoll:
40% for Conservatives and 28% for Labour on 02/11
45% for Conservatives and 32% for Labour on 30/11
Surge of 5% for the Conservatives and 4% for Labour
ICM:
38% for Conservatives and 31% for Labour on 04/11
42% for Conservatives and 35% for Labour on 02/12
Surge of 4% for the Conservatives and 4% for Labour
Opinium:
42% for Conservatives and 26% for Labour on 01/11
46% for Conservatives and 31% for Labour on 29/11
Surge of 4% for the Conservatives and 5% for Labour
Survation:
35% for Conservatives and 29% for Labour on 08/11
42% for Conservatives and 33% for Labour on 30/11
Surge of 7% for the Conservatives and 4% for Labour
BMG:
37% for Conservatives and 29% for Labour on 08/11
39% for Conservatives and 33% for Labour on 27/11
Surge of 2% for the Conservatives and 4% for Labour
Kantar:
37% for Conservatives and 27% for Labour on 11/11
43% for Conservatives and 32% for Labour on 25/11
Surge of 6% for the Conservatives and 5% for Labour
So summarised, (CON/LAB)
YouGov +4/+7
SavantaComRes +7/+5
Panelbase +2/+5
Deltapoll +5/+4
ICM Research +4/+4
Opinium +4/+5
Survation +7/+4
BMG +2/+4
Kantar +6+5
So the Conservatives have outsurged Labour in ComRes, Deltapoll, Survation and Kantar
They have both surged the same in ICM
Labour have outsurged the Conservatives in YouGov, Panelbase, Opinium and BMG
Drifting is less likely in Punters minds
Or is this a Clinton goes to Arizona type of move?
If he isnt its odds on NOM
Barrow
Chester
Dudley
Bassetlaw
Neck and neck
Workington
Bolsover
Don Valley
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
Does anyone know if this a genuine Graph of YG MRP
If so very significant for next one and for chances of NOM
It's 50.6% Leave vote was below the UK average
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Certainty doesn't look like an official YouGov graph.
The only problem is I now have a mental image of Diane Abbott as an elf.
It was about as much use as a cat flap in an elephant house.
@quakers4corbyn
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5h
I canvassed Putney on Friday and was told on the doorstep that LibDems are spamming letterboxes with those misleading bar charts and that dodgy letter from Mike Smithson. Here's the truth for folks in lovely #Putney
Quote Tweet
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-29934257/bbc-rewind-david-mellor-loses-putney
Apparently it was because i was panicking LD were going to finish 2nd ahead of Jezza
Snow in several places too.
If they stay there then, unless the current Con percentage includes a lot of ex-Labour Leavers and Corbynsceptics who go all wobbly and run back home by polling day, Johnson ought to win.
However, if the yellows collapse back down to bedrock then the vote shares start to look very like 2017 again, and we're almost certainly in for another Hung Parliament.
Well, that's what it looks like to me, anyway.
"This is serious."
You don't really need to start wrapping up warm until it hits minus five or below. Blokes in Scotland stop wearing shorts around minus 15.
If the Conservatives do pull this one off they will have got very lucky.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1201479408768495624?s=20