Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
I think that is true for most of the PMs mumblings and utterings.
11 leaflets targeting the same constituency being classed as national leafleting is absurd and makes a mockery of it.
Yes, I quite agree, and that's before you even start looking at targeted social media and phone banking. I don't think constituency limits work any more - I'd prefer a fairly strict national limit (say £10 million, which any party aspiring to be the Government should be able to raise) and have it apply to all leaflets, phone calls and other expenses eveywhere. Then if someone wanted to send you 11 leaflets, they'd potentially need to economise by sending none somewhere else. That would concentrate minds and lead to more sensible distribution.
Even disregarding the spending limits, I don't think it makes sense. Say you've got some amazing clinching argument to put out in the final week. People who've had 11 leaflets from you alreadu simply aren't going to read it.
If the LDs, Greens and Brexit Party have extremely poor vote inefficiency thru FPTP it does seem harsh to force them to make it even more ineffecient by having constituency spending limits, instead of allowing them to target the few seats they can win in.
Do spending limits work at all in the present day? With endless interest groups, viral campaigning, not to mention billionaires who can just buy media companies to promote their world view it seems very outdated. And with enforcement weak, only retrospective and inevitably contentious does it actually help even if the intentions of the limits are good?
For all that is wrong with our spending limits (£30,000 per constituency) I’d rather have that than the amount spent in the US which is two orders of magnitude more for congress and more than four more for the presidency.
Thats 30p per constituent. So half a second class stamp per constituent. Not sure it makes any sense.
Obviously the US situation is bonkers, but that doesnt make our current system right.
Unaddressed delivery is of course priced completely different from the post. And a lot cheaper from the various private delivery companies than from Royal Mail, which no candidate would ever use for anything other than the Freepost and the occasional casework letter.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
A different Andrew-related interview will dominate the news agenda on Tuesday and Wednesday I suspect.
11 leaflets targeting the same constituency being classed as national leafleting is absurd and makes a mockery of it.
Yes, I quite agree, and that's before you even start looking at targeted social media and phone banking. I don't think constituency limits work any more - I'd prefer a fairly strict national limit (say £10 million, which any party aspiring to be the Government should be able to raise) and have it apply to all leaflets, phone calls and other expenses eveywhere. Then if someone wanted to send you 11 leaflets, they'd potentially need to economise by sending none somewhere else. That would concentrate minds and lead to more sensible distribution.
Even disregarding the spending limits, I don't think it makes sense. Say you've got some amazing clinching argument to put out in the final week. People who've had 11 leaflets from you alreadu simply aren't going to read it.
If the LDs, Greens and Brexit Party have extremely poor vote inefficiency thru FPTP it does seem harsh to force them to make it even more ineffecient by having constituency spending limits, instead of allowing them to target the few seats they can win in.
Do spending limits work at all in the present day? With endless interest groups, viral campaigning, not to mention billionaires who can just buy media companies to promote their world view it seems very outdated. And with enforcement weak, only retrospective and inevitably contentious does it actually help even if the intentions of the limits are good?
For all that is wrong with our spending limits (£30,000 per constituency) I’d rather have that than the amount spent in the US which is two orders of magnitude more for congress and more than four more for the presidency.
Thats 30p per constituent. So half a second class stamp per constituent. Not sure it makes any sense.
Obviously the US situation is bonkers, but that doesnt make our current system right.
Unaddressed delivery is of course priced completely different from the post. And a lot cheaper from the various private delivery companies than from Royal Mail, which no candidate would ever use for anything other than the Freepost and the occasional casework letter.
Yes just saying it is a very low limit. Going back to America, in Seattle for local government campaigns the city give each resident $100 to donate to politicians! https://www.seattle.gov/democracyvoucher/about-the-program I dont think someone spending £2 a head for a GE for example is something we need to legislate against, particularly so when we cant enforce our limits effectively anyway.
That poll did not prove accurate as Boris did not vote or support further extension himself but was able to blame Parliament instead given the lack of a Tory majority
Yep. The Benn Act. The creator of this upcoming Tory majority.
Win the battle, lose the war. Benn, Grieve, Bercow and all their oh-so-clever lawyerly friends who tried their best to undermine democracy, yet utterly failed to take account of how the public would see their actions when they were inevitable asked their opinion.
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Try getting a GP to do house calls Try getting an appointment with a doctor within three weeks
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
A different Andrew-related interview will dominate the news agenda on Tuesday and Wednesday I suspect.
Another Prince Andrew eruption? That could be very useful to the Tories. So long as there are further Prince Andrew controversies, most of the election ones will get drowned out.
An opportunity for further coverage of "Brillogate" not to be noticed. I stand to be corrected by events (I very often am) but I don't think Johnson will do that interview. It's an unnecessary risk for him, and that risk increases with every day closer to polling day that all those potential banana skins (and resultant Labour viral video ads) get.
Rather annoyingly, and unlike to the US election markets, Betfair only has a “PM after Boris Johnson” market, which could well take several years to pay out. Has anyone seen a “PM on 1/1/2020” market anywhere?
Betfair has"PM at formation of first ministry after election" under "UK - next general election".
Time was when most people in the country would have known his name. Back in ‘85 18.5 million watched Taylor beat Davies in a final that finished after midnight.
Yes. Such a shame. The standard is immeasurably better now too.
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Been busy this afternoon so just catching up now. Apologies if this has already been seen by all, but I thought I'd draw attention to this item from today's Observer: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/01/wokingham-don-valley-general-election-johnson-swinson-corbyn The report details the difficulties that both the Lib Dems and Labour are encountering with the topic of Brexit on the doorstep. It ends with the observation, not the first of its kind that I've read recently, that the change of Labour strategy that's said to have been made to target resources at defence in northern Leave seats... ...is not really about the election but the first act in the battle for the post-election narrative about why Labour failed to win. Several Labour figures said they believed it was a move designed to blame pro-Remain figures in the party for defeat, and deflect from the personal unpopularity of Corbyn or the party’s radical policy platform. “They are not changing tack,” said one insider. “This is about blaming everyone but themselves for the loss. The fact that we can’t make a decision on Brexit means the voters can’t trust us on anything else.” Maybe it's not just the recent constituency polls that corroborate the MRP - perhaps Labour's own canvassing returns are doing likewise? In which case, they could be in a lot of trouble - although, as ever with reports of this kind, I offer the caveat that I suspect that the Labour Leavers may wobble en masse when it comes to the moment that they actually have to vote Tory. We may not be getting another Hung Parliament after all, but I won't actually believe it until the results are in.
The Lib Dems dreaming of getting the scalp of Redwood or Gove, really need to get their arses 20 miles down the road to Guildford.
Just as a little aside, the latest weather outputs are showing an election day of epic weather proportions. The polar vortex (which is normally over the north pole) is shown right over Scotland, with one hell of a violent storm across southern Britain and heavy snow in Wales, the north-west and Scotland.
Still long range in meteorological terms but thought it worth mentioning.
Do you know how accurate 10-day forecasts are typically?
Long range weather forecasting is one of the unsung achievements of the past decade or so, with real advances in the accuracy of the three or four global models that are widely available. They can’t tell you whether it’ll be wet or dry on Thursday afternoon three weeks forward, but they can predict with a fair degree of accuracy the likely climatic conditions that will be driving local weather up to a month ahead.
Agreed.
The American based GFS, or Global Forecasting System, is the gold standard. It has been showing some fairly wild conditions for election day for some time now.
10 days out is still relatively long term but if I put odds on it being accurate from this range I'd say it's about 50:50.
If the latest 12z run is accurate it's going to cause a LOT of problems. Transport would be disrupted and it would feel bone-chillingly cold.
You can lay Lab majority at 33/1. It's impossible, therefore a guaranteed 3% return on your money in 2 weeks. Equates to almost 100% APR compounded. You have credit risk on Paddy Power (Betfair) of course, but if we price that at, say, 50 basis points, it still leaves you with an investment that looks so good on yield that if you saw it in an advert you would smell a rat. So what I would recommend is that you withdraw every single penny of savings from all of your accounts - maybe borrow from friends and family to increase the opportunity even further - and deposit that to Betfair, then lay the 33/1 up to this maximum liability. If, for example, you commit £1000 to the transaction you will be earning yourself £33 on Dec 13th. Enough for a steak dinner plus red wine with a companion of choice.
Surely some companions are a lot more expensive than that?
That poll did not prove accurate as Boris did not vote or support further extension himself but was able to blame Parliament instead given the lack of a Tory majority
Yep. The Benn Act. The creator of this upcoming Tory majority.
Win the battle, lose the war. Benn, Grieve, Bercow and all their oh-so-clever lawyerly friends who tried their best to undermine democracy, yet utterly failed to take account of how the public would see their actions when they were inevitable asked their opinion.
The primary objective was to stop no deal, apart from Grieve the conservative rebels were generally content with a deal. The chance of no deal has reduced, although depending on numbers a hung parliament could make it a realistic possibility. Of course there were secondary and tertiary objectives for some in stopping Brexit and damaging the Tory party, but if that was their primary objective they would never have got a majority in the Commons.
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Absolutely right. And IMO this applies to the arts too. Music, films, TV, novels, poetry, plays etc, all better now than they used to be. Why? Because wider access means more product, thus harder to stand out. Every week there are songs released that are as good as anything by the Beatles. Just that you won't come across them. Yes, progress in everything is inevitable. I believe that. We are even getting better looking. Well, we aren't, quite the opposite, but you know what I mean.
True, and its why that film Yesterday was just nostalgic mush. All those songs are fantastic. But our joy in hearing beatles songs is in how familiar we are with them and how they flood our minds with memories when we hear them.
My significant other got me onto an obscure artist that most people havent heard of. Having been forced to listen to many of his songs over the space of a couple of years i now listen to him a lot and some of them feel to me as good as those classics.
Sorry but I have to disagree. I cannot rate any modern composer with the likes of Schubert. No living artist can rival past masters such as Casper David Friedrich. And I defy anyone to find a play to equal Stoppard's Arcadia since it was written nearly 30 years ago. The real benefit of wider access is that it makes it easier to find the hidden gems from all eras. The example I like is Willy DeVille. A neglected genius in the UK and USA, I first heard his music in Germany (where he is still huge 10 years after his death), and youtube has given me the access to confirm his genius.
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Try getting a GP to do house calls Try getting an appointment with a doctor within three weeks
Actually you might have a bit of a point, but thats a bit like lamenting the loss of milkmen or street gas lighters. There's a better way of delivery. You are right that the GP relationship that once existed has gone.
PS, ive been with the same surgery for forty years and never had an issue getting a same day appointment.
For those worried about / hopeful for a repeat of GE 2017: Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 11 days ahead of GE19 = 9.2% Average Tory lead 11 days ahead of GE17 = 8.8%
We are well past "peak Corbyn" now though
The problem is about using 'peak' anything, is that its coined from 'peak oil' which was a myth a load of old bunkum, our supplies of oil will never reach a peak of maximum extraction capacity because, we now have the climate change fairy as a reason for reducing oil.
So, in terms of 'peak corbyn', there is no maximum to his peak...
The report details the difficulties that both the Lib Dems and Labour are encountering with the topic of Brexit on the doorstep. It ends with the observation, not the first of its kind that I've read recently, that the change of Labour strategy that's said to have been made to target resources at defence in northern Leave seats...
...is not really about the election but the first act in the battle for the post-election narrative about why Labour failed to win. Several Labour figures said they believed it was a move designed to blame pro-Remain figures in the party for defeat, and deflect from the personal unpopularity of Corbyn or the party’s radical policy platform.
“They are not changing tack,” said one insider. “This is about blaming everyone but themselves for the loss. The fact that we can’t make a decision on Brexit means the voters can’t trust us on anything else.”
Maybe it's not just the recent constituency polls that corroborate the MRP - perhaps Labour's own canvassing returns are doing likewise? In which case, they could be in a lot of trouble - although, as ever with reports of this kind, I offer the caveat that I suspect that the Labour Leavers may wobble en masse when it comes to the moment that they actually have to vote Tory. We may not be getting another Hung Parliament after all, but I won't actually believe it until the results are in.
Don’t want to be boring but labour 180 - 200 they know it and the observation that it’s about ensuring the blame is laid at any bodies doorstep than the hard left is an interesting insight.
Time was when most people in the country would have known his name. Back in ‘85 18.5 million watched Taylor beat Davies in a final that finished after midnight.
Yes. Such a shame. The standard is immeasurably better now too.
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Our politicians are more truthful...
Oh, wait.
They are certainly better at lying and getting away with it.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
Boris has got his BBC interview out the way now. The Tories really have played a blinder on this. it’s been a mixed campaign for Tories so far, but today is a clear win for them, with Boris powerful performance in his BBC interview, no disaster front page headlines for Boris like Corbyn got from his disaster BBC interview. Also Sophie coaxing out of corbyn that he is still as soft on terrorism as ever. For those who haven’t voted yet and wavering thinking of the important brexit negotiations to come where we need the best person batting for U.K. and that’s Boris on his powerful BBC performance in contrast to Corbyn who cracked in his BBC interview. And on top of all that, the sad events on London Bridge only happened because of what Labour done in 2008, we are thankful to Boris hard working team to find for us overnight.
Just to counter Black-Rooks bit of guesswork below I'll offer my own intuiton.
I reckon Dominic Cummings exited the scene with his blog not because he had to by protocol (since when has that ever bothered him?) and not to play mind games (not at all his style) but because he genuinely believes we're heading for a hung parliament.
That poll did not prove accurate as Boris did not vote or support further extension himself but was able to blame Parliament instead given the lack of a Tory majority
Yep. The Benn Act. The creator of this upcoming Tory majority.
Win the battle, lose the war. Benn, Grieve, Bercow and all their oh-so-clever lawyerly friends who tried their best to undermine democracy, yet utterly failed to take account of how the public would see their actions when they were inevitable asked their opinion.
I doubt that Benn, Grieve and Bercow will be too distraught. Benn is well into red rosette on a donkey territory and has a secure job for life. Grieve looks like he's on his way out of Parliament, but he's 63 so can retire on a fat gold-plated pension, possibly supplemented with some legal work. Bercow is now a beloved left-liberal celebrity and will probably make a mint on the lecture circuit where he can continue to enjoy listening to the sound of his own voice at considerable length, as well as getting the customary seat in the House of Lords.
You can lay Lab majority at 33/1. It's impossible, therefore a guaranteed 3% return on your money in 2 weeks. Equates to almost 100% APR compounded. You have credit risk on Paddy Power (Betfair) of course, but if we price that at, say, 50 basis points, it still leaves you with an investment that looks so good on yield that if you saw it in an advert you would smell a rat. So what I would recommend is that you withdraw every single penny of savings from all of your accounts - maybe borrow from friends and family to increase the opportunity even further - and deposit that to Betfair, then lay the 33/1 up to this maximum liability. If, for example, you commit £1000 to the transaction you will be earning yourself £33 on Dec 13th. Enough for a steak dinner plus red wine with a companion of choice.
For £33 for 2 including wine I doubt that steak ever saw a cow...
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
Boris has got his BBC interview out the way now. The Tories really have played a blinder on this. it’s been a mixed campaign for Tories so far, but today is a clear win for them, with Boris powerful performance in his BBC interview, no disaster front page headlines for Boris like Corbyn got from his disaster BBC interview. Also Sophie coaxing out of corbyn that he is still as soft on terrorism as ever. For those who haven’t voted yet and wavering thinking of the important brexit negotiations to come where we need the best person batting for U.K. and that’s Boris on his powerful BBC performance in contrast to Corbyn who cracked in his BBC interview. And on top of all that, the sad events on London Bridge only happened because of what Labour done in 2008, we are thankful to Boris hard working team to find for us overnight.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
Boris has got his BBC interview out the way now. The Tories really have played a blinder on this. it’s been a mixed campaign for Tories so far, but today is a clear win for them, with Boris powerful performance in his BBC interview, no disaster front page headlines for Boris like Corbyn got from his disaster BBC interview. Also Sophie coaxing out of corbyn that he is still as soft on terrorism as ever. For those who haven’t voted yet and wavering thinking of the important brexit negotiations to come where we need the best person batting for U.K. and that’s Boris on his powerful BBC performance in contrast to Corbyn who cracked in his BBC interview. And on top of all that, the sad events on London Bridge only happened because of what Labour done in 2008, we are thankful to Boris hard working team to find for us overnight.
I cant tell if the above is parody, tongue in cheek, a tory spinner, a labour spinner pretending to be a tory to make them sound unreasonable, or what you believe.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Just to counter Black-Rooks bit of guesswork below I'll offer my own intuiton.
I reckon Dominic Cummings exited the scene with his blog not because he had to by protocol (since when has that ever bothered him?) and not to play mind games (not at all his style) but because he genuinely believes we're heading for a hung parliament.
The rat left the sinking ship.
Maybe you're right. I've been waiting for a repeat of 2017 and looking for evidence thereof for weeks, and I still think a Hung Parliament is a possibility to be seriously considered. All of this is just so much guesswork, after all.
You can lay Lab majority at 33/1. It's impossible, therefore a guaranteed 3% return on your money in 2 weeks. Equates to almost 100% APR compounded. You have credit risk on Paddy Power (Betfair) of course, but if we price that at, say, 50 basis points, it still leaves you with an investment that looks so good on yield that if you saw it in an advert you would smell a rat. So what I would recommend is that you withdraw every single penny of savings from all of your accounts - maybe borrow from friends and family to increase the opportunity even further - and deposit that to Betfair, then lay the 33/1 up to this maximum liability. If, for example, you commit £1000 to the transaction you will be earning yourself £33 on Dec 13th. Enough for a steak dinner plus red wine with a companion of choice.
Surely some companions are a lot more expensive than that?
Especially when you add the cost of divorce.
Isn’t the whole point of paying for a companion for the evening, that they go away after that?
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Try getting a GP to do house calls Try getting an appointment with a doctor within three weeks
This is a problem. I will say that my recent experience of dialling 111 was very effective though and got me where I needed to be pretty quickly.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
Boris has got his BBC interview out the way now. The Tories really have played a blinder on this. it’s been a mixed campaign for Tories so far, but today is a clear win for them, with Boris powerful performance in his BBC interview, no disaster front page headlines for Boris like Corbyn got from his disaster BBC interview. Also Sophie coaxing out of corbyn that he is still as soft on terrorism as ever. For those who haven’t voted yet and wavering thinking of the important brexit negotiations to come where we need the best person batting for U.K. and that’s Boris on his powerful BBC performance in contrast to Corbyn who cracked in his BBC interview. And on top of all that, the sad events on London Bridge only happened because of what Labour done in 2008, we are thankful to Boris hard working team to find for us overnight.
I cant tell if the above is parody, tongue in cheek, a tory spinner, a labour spinner pretending to be a tory to make them sound unreasonable, or what you believe.
For those worried about / hopeful for a repeat of GE 2017: Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 11 days ahead of GE19 = 9.2% Average Tory lead 11 days ahead of GE17 = 8.8%
Bearing in mind the lead needed this time to cause a HP is apparently a lot higher, that's good for me
Are you on performance related pay?
If he is they are due a rebate :-)
I'm paid a flat £50 an hour to post here
I'll do it for half that, if anyone is watching.
Send me your details, we can send you for re-education
I don't believe and genuinely hope that CHB is not a bot and will not disappear after the election. He has proved one of the most reasonable and also the most good humoured of posters from what I consider to be 'the other side'. A real asset to the site.
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Try getting a GP to do house calls Try getting an appointment with a doctor within three weeks
Actually you might have a bit of a point, but thats a bit like lamenting the loss of milkmen or street gas lighters. There's a better way of delivery. You are right that the GP relationship that once existed has gone.
PS, ive been with the same surgery for forty years and never had an issue getting a same day appointment.
And not forgetting knocker-uppers. I always thought they were a joke of my mother's making until I saw a documentary about them.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
Boris has got his BBC interview out the way now. The Tories really have played a blinder on this. it’s been a mixed campaign for Tories so far, but today is a clear win for them, with Boris powerful performance in his BBC interview, no disaster front page headlines for Boris like Corbyn got from his disaster BBC interview. Also Sophie coaxing out of corbyn that he is still as soft on terrorism as ever. For those who haven’t voted yet and wavering thinking of the important brexit negotiations to come where we need the best person batting for U.K. and that’s Boris on his powerful BBC performance in contrast to Corbyn who cracked in his BBC interview. And on top of all that, the sad events on London Bridge only happened because of what Labour done in 2008, we are thankful to Boris hard working team to find for us overnight.
I cant tell if the above is parody, tongue in cheek, a tory spinner, a labour spinner pretending to be a tory to make them sound unreasonable, or what you believe.
I hope it's parody, it's one of the most offensive posts I've read so far re the attack.
For those worried about / hopeful for a repeat of GE 2017: Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 11 days ahead of GE19 = 9.2% Average Tory lead 11 days ahead of GE17 = 8.8%
Bearing in mind the lead needed this time to cause a HP is apparently a lot higher, that's good for me
Are you on performance related pay?
If he is they are due a rebate :-)
I'm paid a flat £50 an hour to post here
I'll do it for half that, if anyone is watching.
Send me your details, we can send you for re-education
I don't believe and genuinely hope that CHB is not a bot and will not disappear after the election. He has proved one of the most reasonable and also the most good humoured of posters from what I consider to be 'the other side'. A real asset to the site.
I don't plan to go anywhere, friend.
Also I'm happy to confirm I am not a bot, just a leftie
For those worried about / hopeful for a repeat of GE 2017: Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 11 days ahead of GE19 = 9.2% Average Tory lead 11 days ahead of GE17 = 8.8%
Bearing in mind the lead needed this time to cause a HP is apparently a lot higher, that's good for me
Are you on performance related pay?
If he is they are due a rebate :-)
I'm paid a flat £50 an hour to post here
I'll do it for half that, if anyone is watching.
Send me your details, we can send you for re-education
I don't believe and genuinely hope that CHB is not a bot and will not disappear after the election. He has proved one of the most reasonable and also the most good humoured of posters from what I consider to be 'the other side'. A real asset to the site.
For those worried about / hopeful for a repeat of GE 2017: Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 11 days ahead of GE19 = 9.2% Average Tory lead 11 days ahead of GE17 = 8.8%
Bearing in mind the lead needed this time to cause a HP is apparently a lot higher, that's good for me
Are you on performance related pay?
If he is they are due a rebate :-)
I'm paid a flat £50 an hour to post here
I'll do it for half that, if anyone is watching.
Send me your details, we can send you for re-education
I don't believe and genuinely hope that CHB is not a bot and will not disappear after the election. He has proved one of the most reasonable and also the most good humoured of posters from what I consider to be 'the other side'. A real asset to the site.
Yep and some of the pile-on bullying of him yesterday was very distasteful.
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Absolutely right. And IMO this applies to the arts too. Music, films, TV, novels, poetry, plays etc, all better now than they used to be. Why? Because wider access means more product, thus harder to stand out. Every week there are songs released that are as good as anything by the Beatles. Just that you won't come across them. Yes, progress in everything is inevitable. I believe that. We are even getting better looking. Well, we aren't, quite the opposite, but you know what I mean.
True, and its why that film Yesterday was just nostalgic mush. All those songs are fantastic. But our joy in hearing beatles songs is in how familiar we are with them and how they flood our minds with memories when we hear them.
My significant other got me onto an obscure artist that most people havent heard of. Having been forced to listen to many of his songs over the space of a couple of years i now listen to him a lot and some of them feel to me as good as those classics.
Sorry but I have to disagree. I cannot rate any modern composer with the likes of Schubert. No living artist can rival past masters such as Casper David Friedrich. And I defy anyone to find a play to equal Stoppard's Arcadia since it was written nearly 30 years ago. The real benefit of wider access is that it makes it easier to find the hidden gems from all eras. The example I like is Willy DeVille. A neglected genius in the UK and USA, I first heard his music in Germany (where he is still huge 10 years after his death), and youtube has given me the access to confirm his genius.
You'd rate Schubert ahead of Thom Yorke?
That's a gutsy call on here. People have been banned for less.
For those worried about / hopeful for a repeat of GE 2017: Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 11 days ahead of GE19 = 9.2% Average Tory lead 11 days ahead of GE17 = 8.8%
Bearing in mind the lead needed this time to cause a HP is apparently a lot higher, that's good for me
Are you on performance related pay?
If he is they are due a rebate :-)
I'm paid a flat £50 an hour to post here
I'll do it for half that, if anyone is watching.
Send me your details, we can send you for re-education
I don't believe and genuinely hope that CHB is not a bot and will not disappear after the election. He has proved one of the most reasonable and also the most good humoured of posters from what I consider to be 'the other side'. A real asset to the site.
Yep and some of the pile-on bullying of him yesterday was very distasteful.
I didn't say any bullying, it's all in good fun I'm sure!
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
Boris has got his BBC interview out the way now. The Tories really have played a blinder on this. it’s been a mixed campaign for Tories so far, but today is a clear win for them, with Boris powerful performance in his BBC interview, no disaster front page headlines for Boris like Corbyn got from his disaster BBC interview. Also Sophie coaxing out of corbyn that he is still as soft on terrorism as ever. For those who haven’t voted yet and wavering thinking of the important brexit negotiations to come where we need the best person batting for U.K. and that’s Boris on his powerful BBC performance in contrast to Corbyn who cracked in his BBC interview. And on top of all that, the sad events on London Bridge only happened because of what Labour done in 2008, we are thankful to Boris hard working team to find for us overnight.
Are you talking about the Marr interview? Did you even watch it? A powerful performance? Christ it was the worst political interview performance I have ever seen, the man showed no understanding or insight into the issues he was asked about he only had one message Corbyn is a disaster and getting brexit done will solve everything. But then you are only posting what CCHQ have told you to push because you last sentence shows you haven’t got an ability to do other than regurgitate what they tell you to do.
You can lay Lab majority at 33/1. It's impossible, therefore a guaranteed 3% return on your money in 2 weeks. Equates to almost 100% APR compounded. You have credit risk on Paddy Power (Betfair) of course, but if we price that at, say, 50 basis points, it still leaves you with an investment that looks so good on yield that if you saw it in an advert you would smell a rat. So what I would recommend is that you withdraw every single penny of savings from all of your accounts - maybe borrow from friends and family to increase the opportunity even further - and deposit that to Betfair, then lay the 33/1 up to this maximum liability. If, for example, you commit £1000 to the transaction you will be earning yourself £33 on Dec 13th. Enough for a steak dinner plus red wine with a companion of choice.
Surely some companions are a lot more expensive than that?
Especially when you add the cost of divorce.
Isn’t the whole point of paying for a companion for the evening, that they go away after that?
Sometimes your pre-existing companion also goes away, when they find out.
You can lay Lab majority at 33/1. It's impossible, therefore a guaranteed 3% return on your money in 2 weeks. Equates to almost 100% APR compounded. You have credit risk on Paddy Power (Betfair) of course, but if we price that at, say, 50 basis points, it still leaves you with an investment that looks so good on yield that if you saw it in an advert you would smell a rat. So what I would recommend is that you withdraw every single penny of savings from all of your accounts - maybe borrow from friends and family to increase the opportunity even further - and deposit that to Betfair, then lay the 33/1 up to this maximum liability. If, for example, you commit £1000 to the transaction you will be earning yourself £33 on Dec 13th. Enough for a steak dinner plus red wine with a companion of choice.
Surely some companions are a lot more expensive than that?
Especially when you add the cost of divorce.
Isn’t the whole point of paying for a companion for the evening, that they go away after that?
I was thinking that when ones SO discovers you've been having steak dinners with a "companion", it's possible she will not be too impressed.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Surely the East Devon indy has milked her possible support base dry? I suspect some who want Brexit done/fear Corbyn might return to the blue corner this time.
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Try getting a GP to do house calls Try getting an appointment with a doctor within three weeks
This is a problem. I will say that my recent experience of dialling 111 was very effective though and got me where I needed to be pretty quickly.
Yes, worked for me too when I had a spell of vertigo, banged my head and ended up in a pool of blood on the floor. They answered quickly, asked sensible questions, and recommended A&E, which also worked OK.
GP and examination delays are definitely worse, though. I've got a cheek swelling that isn't hurting but is still there after 3 weeks - the GP expressed puzzlement and referred me to an ultrasound test, which I'll get on Jan 2. Now I don't think cancer of the cheek is really a thing unless one has mouth symptoms too, but a month is longer than I'd like to work out what it is. No chance of seeing the GP again befoire then. i think the system is pretty good for mergencies, not so great for things perhaps needing investigation.
For those worried about / hopeful for a repeat of GE 2017: Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 11 days ahead of GE19 = 9.2% Average Tory lead 11 days ahead of GE17 = 8.8%
Bearing in mind the lead needed this time to cause a HP is apparently a lot higher, that's good for me
Are you on performance related pay?
If he is they are due a rebate :-)
I'm paid a flat £50 an hour to post here
I'll do it for half that, if anyone is watching.
Send me your details, we can send you for re-education
I don't believe and genuinely hope that CHB is not a bot and will not disappear after the election. He has proved one of the most reasonable and also the most good humoured of posters from what I consider to be 'the other side'. A real asset to the site.
RichardTyndallBot has been one of the better meta-bots here recently.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Gauke has no chance, on the basis of the latest constituency poll.
For those worried about / hopeful for a repeat of GE 2017: Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 11 days ahead of GE19 = 9.2% Average Tory lead 11 days ahead of GE17 = 8.8%
We are well past "peak Corbyn" now though
The problem is about using 'peak' anything, is that its coined from 'peak oil' which was a myth a load of old bunkum, our supplies of oil will never reach a peak of maximum extraction capacity because, we now have the climate change fairy as a reason for reducing oil.
So, in terms of 'peak corbyn', there is no maximum to his peak...
The report details the difficulties that both the Lib Dems and Labour are encountering with the topic of Brexit on the doorstep. It ends with the observation, not the first of its kind that I've read recently, that the change of Labour strategy that's said to have been made to target resources at defence in northern Leave seats...
...is not really about the election but the first act in the battle for the post-election narrative about why Labour failed to win. Several Labour figures said they believed it was a move designed to blame pro-Remain figures in the party for defeat, and deflect from the personal unpopularity of Corbyn or the party’s radical policy platform.
“They are not changing tack,” said one insider. “This is about blaming everyone but themselves for the loss. The fact that we can’t make a decision on Brexit means the voters can’t trust us on anything else.”
Maybe it's not just the recent constituency polls that corroborate the MRP - perhaps Labour's own canvassing returns are doing likewise? In which case, they could be in a lot of trouble - although, as ever with reports of this kind, I offer the caveat that I suspect that the Labour Leavers may wobble en masse when it comes to the moment that they actually have to vote Tory. We may not be getting another Hung Parliament after all, but I won't actually believe it until the results are in.
Don’t want to be boring but labour 180 - 200 they know it and the observation that it’s about ensuring the blame is laid at any bodies doorstep than the hard left is an interesting insight.
The previous suggestion I read about the blame game being prepared was also brought to my attention by a recent post on PB. Apparently McDonnell, Thornberry and Starmer are in the firing line, with the latter two having deliberately been kept away from the media to try to avoid any quotes that are unhelpful to the effort to sell Corbyn's Brexit plan. Not sure how much truth there is in that - I don't recall having seen very much at all during this campaign from anyone on the Labour side but Corbyn, McDonnell (and that one debate featuring Rebecca Long-Bailey,) but then again I've only really noticed Johnson, Javid, Patel and Gove on the Tory side.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
You can lay Lab majority at 33/1. It's impossible, therefore a guaranteed 3% return on your money in 2 weeks. Equates to almost 100% APR compounded. You have credit risk on Paddy Power (Betfair) of course, but if we price that at, say, 50 basis points, it still leaves you with an investment that looks so good on yield that if you saw it in an advert you would smell a rat. So what I would recommend is that you withdraw every single penny of savings from all of your accounts - maybe borrow from friends and family to increase the opportunity even further - and deposit that to Betfair, then lay the 33/1 up to this maximum liability. If, for example, you commit £1000 to the transaction you will be earning yourself £33 on Dec 13th. Enough for a steak dinner plus red wine with a companion of choice.
Surely some companions are a lot more expensive than that?
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Broxtowe not even getting a mention....
Soubry's not an independent!
Fair point! Although how many candidates are Change UK standing?
Rather annoyingly, and unlike to the US election markets, Betfair only has a “PM after Boris Johnson” market, which could well take several years to pay out. Has anyone seen a “PM on 1/1/2020” market anywhere?
Betfair has"PM at formation of first ministry after election" under "UK - next general election".
Ooh, thanks. That one was very well hidden! https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.165009846 Johnson 1.26 looks awfully tempting, given that a few Ulstermen and independents (and maybe even the LDs) would either prop him up or abstain, and as the incumbent there’s going to have to be a clear majority of others acting together to force him to resign, rather than present a Queen’s Speech to be voted on.
This is very true. But the Tories need to gain seats and the more that BXP falls by the wayside (not to mention TIG - the who?) they've got to do it partly by winning votes from Labour in the North and Midlands, and all they've got is Brexit and "Labour is scary". Which essentially means in those constituencies that all they've got is Brexit. The bottom is falling out of "Get Brexit done" given that "getting Brexit done" is precisely what the Tories have been so famously unable to do. While they themselves might like to blame other people for their own failings that doesn't mean other people are going to swarm to blame other people. Which means all they've got left is immigration, which is why Leave won all those years ago anyway.
The biggest question mark might be a technical one - of samples weighted by past recall that are overweighting left leaning folk by making up for a shortfall in people who remember voting Labour by adding more to the sample that do.
It's the biggest potential (explainable) polling error this time, and the pollsters with this approach typically have lower Tory leads
Very interesting indeed. If that were the case, then those polls showing a lower lead are exaggerating Labour strength, and thus motivating higher Tory turnout as a result of the fear they inspire...
On the motivation effect: Dominic Cummings recently said the election was too close to call when the Tories were further ahead in the polls than they are now. It's reasonable to assume he was campaigning when he said it. In any case, the last part of the campaign will be brutal.
On misrecall: if pollsters have identified it (or more accurately, differential misrecall) as a source of bias and are trying to compensate for it, why assume they are overcompensating rather than undercompensating?
Has any research been published on recall for GE2017? I'd dearly love to see a comparison of the figures for recall, non-recall and misrecall for voters who voted for each of the parties or abstained, and similarly for the two options in the EUref plus Abstain. But isn't it mostly guesswork? How do you assess whether a voter is misrecalling? Many go completely go over the top when they define segments such as "Labour Leave", "Tory Remain" etc. At the margin there are those to whom it's not very important whether they vote or not, or if they do vote then where they put their cross is not of great emotional significance to them - and therefore they're less likely to recall how they voted.
Rather annoyingly, and unlike to the US election markets, Betfair only has a “PM after Boris Johnson” market, which could well take several years to pay out. Has anyone seen a “PM on 1/1/2020” market anywhere?
Betfair has"PM at formation of first ministry after election" under "UK - next general election".
Ooh, thanks. That one was very well hidden! https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.165009846 Johnson 1.26 looks awfully tempting, given that a few Ulstermen and independents (and maybe even the LDs) would either prop him up or abstain, and as the incumbent there’s going to have to be a clear majority of others acting together to force him to resign, rather than present a Queen’s Speech to be voted on.
I suppose there's a bit of insurance in there in case of (a) losing his seat and (b) being forced aside for a 'compromise' PM.
YouGov did some work on recall - and they said that was perhaps the difference in the polling gap. They assumed Survation - I think - had messed up recently because of recall. I believe Survation said they were using the same model as 2017, which called it within MOE. I think basically, nobody knows.
You can lay Lab majority at 33/1. It's impossible, therefore a guaranteed 3% return on your money in 2 weeks. Equates to almost 100% APR compounded. You have credit risk on Paddy Power (Betfair) of course, but if we price that at, say, 50 basis points, it still leaves you with an investment that looks so good on yield that if you saw it in an advert you would smell a rat. So what I would recommend is that you withdraw every single penny of savings from all of your accounts - maybe borrow from friends and family to increase the opportunity even further - and deposit that to Betfair, then lay the 33/1 up to this maximum liability. If, for example, you commit £1000 to the transaction you will be earning yourself £33 on Dec 13th. Enough for a steak dinner plus red wine with a companion of choice.
Surely some companions are a lot more expensive than that?
Especially when you add the cost of divorce.
Isn’t the whole point of paying for a companion for the evening, that they go away after that?
Sometimes your pre-existing companion also goes away, when they find out.
No need to talk about the PM in these terms when we can talk about the Earl of wherever as a distraction.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Broxtowe not even getting a mention....
Soubry's not an independent!
Fair point! Although how many candidates are Change UK standing?
The Independent Group for Change (for that is what they are called this week) is attempting three defences: Soubry, Chris Leslie and Mike Gapes. Their probability of re-election would appear to be somewhat less than 100%. Ann Coffey and Joan Ryan are retiring.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
A different Andrew-related interview will dominate the news agenda on Tuesday and Wednesday I suspect.
Another Prince Andrew eruption? That could be very useful to the Tories. So long as there are further Prince Andrew controversies, most of the election ones will get drowned out.
An opportunity for further coverage of "Brillogate" not to be noticed. I stand to be corrected by events (I very often am) but I don't think Johnson will do that interview. It's an unnecessary risk for him, and that risk increases with every day closer to polling day that all those potential banana skins (and resultant Labour viral video ads) get.
The irony is that if Boris had agreed to the AN interview last Friday, he would have had the perfect excuse to pull it - "COBRA meeting, dear chap. Sure you understand. And sorry, the diary is looking chocker next week...NATO summit, Trump, all that rigmorole."
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Broxtowe not even getting a mention....
Soubry's not an independent!
Fair point! Although how many candidates are Change UK standing?
Three: Soubry, Gapes and Leslie. Leslie probably the only one I'd back to retain his deposit.
On the motivation effect: Dominic Cummings recently said the election was too close to call when the Tories were further ahead in the polls than they are now. It's reasonable to assume he was campaigning when he said it. In any case, the last part of the campaign will be brutal.
With Cummings, let's not overthink it. The why is much less important than the fact that the overpromoted barsteward has left public life, hopefully for good.
I got really bad news for the SNP. This week is the first week that I have the SNP bellow 40% in the average scottish subsamples. It's CON 25 LAB 19 LD 15 SNP 38 GRN 1 BRX 2 in scotland.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Broxtowe not even getting a mention....
Soubry's not an independent!
Fair point! Although how many candidates are Change UK standing?
The Independent Group for Change (for that is what they are called this week) is attempting three defences: Soubry, Chris Leslie and Mike Gapes. Their probability of re-election would appear to be somewhat less than 100%. Ann Coffey and Joan Ryan are retiring.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Thank God for Boris decisive crack down to make us all safe, whether you respect him or not.
He had nine years as a conservative and MP and minister to change the law and didn’t, it does not even feature in their manifesto. Johnson is a deplorable character nakedly seeking to exploit a tragic event for his own political benefit. It is indefensible.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Unlike Grieve, Gauke is up against the LibDems as well? And Greens. So almost certainly not.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
Boris has got his BBC interview out the way now. The Tories really have played a blinder on this. it’s been a mixed campaign for Tories so far, but today is a clear win for them, with Boris powerful performance in his BBC interview, no disaster front page headlines for Boris like Corbyn got from his disaster BBC interview. Also Sophie coaxing out of corbyn that he is still as soft on terrorism as ever. For those who haven’t voted yet and wavering thinking of the important brexit negotiations to come where we need the best person batting for U.K. and that’s Boris on his powerful BBC performance in contrast to Corbyn who cracked in his BBC interview. And on top of all that, the sad events on London Bridge only happened because of what Labour done in 2008, we are thankful to Boris hard working team to find for us overnight.
Are you talking about the Marr interview? Did you even watch it? A powerful performance? Christ it was the worst political interview performance I have ever seen, the man showed no understanding or insight into the issues he was asked about he only had one message Corbyn is a disaster and getting brexit done will solve everything. But then you are only posting what CCHQ have told you to push because you last sentence shows you haven’t got an ability to do other than regurgitate what they tell you to do.
I am the balanced one on this site. I argue with Tory posters that the get brexit done is a lie equal to the old bus. Maybe it’s your bias if you think Corbyn got through a better BBC interview than Boris did today.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Broxtowe not even getting a mention....
Soubry's not an independent!
Fair point! Although how many candidates are Change UK standing?
The Independent Group for Change (for that is what they are called this week) is attempting three defences: Soubry, Chris Leslie and Mike Gapes. Their probability of re-election would appear to be somewhat less than 100%. Ann Coffey and Joan Ryan are retiring.
I am sure Soubry is giving it her best. Gapes will be slaughtered and is surely only restanding for the £payoff. Not sure about Leslie.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
A different Andrew-related interview will dominate the news agenda on Tuesday and Wednesday I suspect.
Another Prince Andrew eruption? That could be very useful to the Tories. So long as there are further Prince Andrew controversies, most of the election ones will get drowned out.
An opportunity for further coverage of "Brillogate" not to be noticed. I stand to be corrected by events (I very often am) but I don't think Johnson will do that interview. It's an unnecessary risk for him, and that risk increases with every day closer to polling day that all those potential banana skins (and resultant Labour viral video ads) get.
The irony is that if Boris had agreed to the AN interview last Friday, he would have had the perfect excuse to pull it - "COBRA meeting, dear chap. Sure you understand. And sorry, the diary is looking chocker next week...NATO summit, Trump, all that rigmorole."
Boris has little to fear from AN anyway. Some questionable personal stuff undoubtedly, but Boris is entirely capable of representing his views and those views seem sound.
Thank God for Boris decisive crack down to make us all safe, whether you respect him or not.
He had nine years as a conservative and MP and minister to change the law and didn’t, it does not even feature in their manifesto. Johnson is a deplorable character nakedly seeking to exploit a tragic event for his own political benefit. It is indefensible.
They did change the law. This particular case it was determined could only be sentenced under the previous legislation.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Just because he made up a new political name for himself doesn’t rule him out as an independent. Effectively that is what he is. Soubry is more arguable although even there I am not aware that they ever got any sort of party hierarchy and structure going?
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Broxtowe not even getting a mention....
Soubry's not an independent!
Fair point! Although how many candidates are Change UK standing?
The Independent Group for Change (for that is what they are called this week) is attempting three defences: Soubry, Chris Leslie and Mike Gapes. Their probability of re-election would appear to be somewhat less than 100%. Ann Coffey and Joan Ryan are retiring.
Does 3 count as a group?
Going by Local Authority rules, you only need two in order to have a group.
Rather annoyingly, and unlike to the US election markets, Betfair only has a “PM after Boris Johnson” market, which could well take several years to pay out. Has anyone seen a “PM on 1/1/2020” market anywhere?
Betfair has"PM at formation of first ministry after election" under "UK - next general election".
Ooh, thanks. That one was very well hidden! https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.165009846 Johnson 1.26 looks awfully tempting, given that a few Ulstermen and independents (and maybe even the LDs) would either prop him up or abstain, and as the incumbent there’s going to have to be a clear majority of others acting together to force him to resign, rather than present a Queen’s Speech to be voted on.
I suppose there's a bit of insurance in there in case of (a) losing his seat and (b) being forced aside for a 'compromise' PM.
On the matter of Johnson's possible defeat in Uxbridge: it is speculated that, should the Tories win but their leader lose his seat, the response would likely be to offer a Tory MP in an ultra-safe seat a peerage and then parachute him in as a by-election candidate.
This, however, is a somewhat risky tactic that could backfire disastrously. The other Mr Rook has reminded me of the case of Patrick Gordon-Walker and the Leyton by-election. A recalcitrant electorate could see him rejected again under such circumstances, and then the Tories really would have to look for a replacement.
That poll did not prove accurate as Boris did not vote or support further extension himself but was able to blame Parliament instead given the lack of a Tory majority
Yep. The Benn Act. The creator of this upcoming Tory majority.
Win the battle, lose the war. Benn, Grieve, Bercow and all their oh-so-clever lawyerly friends who tried their best to undermine democracy, yet utterly failed to take account of how the public would see their actions when they were inevitable asked their opinion.
I doubt that Benn, Grieve and Bercow will be too distraught. Benn is well into red rosette on a donkey territory and has a secure job for life. Grieve looks like he's on his way out of Parliament, but he's 63 so can retire on a fat gold-plated pension, possibly supplemented with some legal work. Bercow is now a beloved left-liberal celebrity and will probably make a mint on the lecture circuit where he can continue to enjoy listening to the sound of his own voice at considerable length, as well as getting the customary seat in the House of Lords.
Sadly agree, except for possibly the very last bit. Bercow seems to have realised that Johnson isn’t going to give him a Peerage, so he’s going down the Blair route of the US speaking circuit. He had a row with the BBC last week over an interview on BBC World’s excellent Hard Talk programme. Apparently the first guest they’ve ever had withdraw for refusing to accept an open interview. Bercow ducks interview over questions of bullying “John Bercow cancelled an interview with the BBC after producers refused to accept his demands that he would not be asked questions about allegations that he had bullied staff. Mr Bercow’s agent from JLA, the corporate speaking agency, tried to set restrictions on questions before an interview with Hardtalk, on the BBC World News channel. An email obtained by Buzzfeed News said: “I have only one comment about the proposed subject matter. For good reasons John will not agree to answer questions about bullying allegations or bullying in general. So as long as you confirm today (in writing, please) that Stephen [Sackur, the presenter] will stay clear of that topic altogether we’re good to go ahead.” In a subsequent email Mr Bercow’s agent cancelled the interview: “Just to wrap this up… it’s definitive ‘no’ from John Bercow as a result of this morning’s conversations.”” – The Times https://www.conservativehome.com/frontpage/2019/11/newslinks-for-thursday-21st-november-2019.html
Rather annoyingly, and unlike to the US election markets, Betfair only has a “PM after Boris Johnson” market, which could well take several years to pay out. Has anyone seen a “PM on 1/1/2020” market anywhere?
Betfair has"PM at formation of first ministry after election" under "UK - next general election".
Ooh, thanks. That one was very well hidden! https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.165009846 Johnson 1.26 looks awfully tempting, given that a few Ulstermen and independents (and maybe even the LDs) would either prop him up or abstain, and as the incumbent there’s going to have to be a clear majority of others acting together to force him to resign, rather than present a Queen’s Speech to be voted on.
I suppose there's a bit of insurance in there in case of (a) losing his seat and (b) being forced aside for a 'compromise' PM.
Exactly. He's 1.21 to win his seat. Which is mad, he plainly will.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Broxtowe not even getting a mention....
Soubry's not an independent!
Fair point! Although how many candidates are Change UK standing?
The Independent Group for Change (for that is what they are called this week) is attempting three defences: Soubry, Chris Leslie and Mike Gapes. Their probability of re-election would appear to be somewhat less than 100%. Ann Coffey and Joan Ryan are retiring.
Does 3 count as a group?
A crowd. How come Leslie didn’t join liddems. he’s been more effective Liberal Democrat than the Lib Dem leaders the last few years.
Where are we on Brillogate? Boris seemed to suggest he'd do an interview with any Andrew on the BBC this morning but I may have misinterpreted his mumbles.
That’s what he said, but probably not what he meant.
Boris has got his BBC interview out the way now. The Tories really have played a blinder on this. it’s been a mixed campaign for Tories so far, but today is a clear win for them, with Boris powerful performance in his BBC interview, no disaster front page headlines for Boris like Corbyn got from his disaster BBC interview. Also Sophie coaxing out of corbyn that he is still as soft on terrorism as ever. For those who haven’t voted yet and wavering thinking of the important brexit negotiations to come where we need the best person batting for U.K. and that’s Boris on his powerful BBC performance in contrast to Corbyn who cracked in his BBC interview. And on top of all that, the sad events on London Bridge only happened because of what Labour done in 2008, we are thankful to Boris hard working team to find for us overnight.
Are you talking about the Marr interview? Did you even watch it? A powerful performance? Christ it was the worst political interview performance I have ever seen, the man showed no understanding or insight into the issues he was asked about he only had one message Corbyn is a disaster and getting brexit done will solve everything. But then you are only posting what CCHQ have told you to push because you last sentence shows you haven’t got an ability to do other than regurgitate what they tell you to do.
I am the balanced one on this site. I argue with Tory posters that the get brexit done is a lie equal to the old bus. Maybe it’s your bias if you think Corbyn got through a better BBC interview than Boris did today.
I said nothing in that post about Corbyn, I was equally vitriolic about his performance with AN they are both dangerous, disingenuous politicians supported by party machines that have gone to the extremes and in normal times would be condemned to the dustbin of history. The only reason they give you to vote for them is they are not as bad as the other one. I suppose if you prefer a slow death then vote Johnson, if you want to get it over with quickly then vote Corbyn.
How many indies likely to get elected this time - Ashfield has one at about 2/1 (was fav at one point) - anymore?
Probably none. But, in order, I reckon Ashfield, then East Devon, then Beaconsfield, then whatever Frank Field’s seat is are the only realistic chances, all of them worse than evens.
Chorley is the most likely if for technical reasons "the Speaker seeking re-election" counts. East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Just because he made up a new political name for himself doesn’t rule him out as an independent. Effectively that is what he is. Soubry is more arguable although even there I am not aware that they ever got any sort of party hierarchy and structure going?
But since they do represent officially registered political parties, no matter how trivial or token those parties may be, being effectively independent does not alter any judgement on officially independent candidates I would think. Field has not simply made up a new political name for himself, he has registered that name as a political party. Of course, that means many local parties are not technically independents either, even as they call themselves the 'x independents'. Which is not as ridiculous as it sounds since at local levels you might get several groups of independents. http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP10337 http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP9077
Rather annoyingly, and unlike to the US election markets, Betfair only has a “PM after Boris Johnson” market, which could well take several years to pay out. Has anyone seen a “PM on 1/1/2020” market anywhere?
Betfair has"PM at formation of first ministry after election" under "UK - next general election".
Ooh, thanks. That one was very well hidden! https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.165009846 Johnson 1.26 looks awfully tempting, given that a few Ulstermen and independents (and maybe even the LDs) would either prop him up or abstain, and as the incumbent there’s going to have to be a clear majority of others acting together to force him to resign, rather than present a Queen’s Speech to be voted on.
I suppose there's a bit of insurance in there in case of (a) losing his seat and (b) being forced aside for a 'compromise' PM.
Exactly. He's 1.21 to win his seat. Which is mad, he plainly will.
I’ll have some of that, on the basis that I would pay to see him lose.
That poll did not prove accurate as Boris did not vote or support further extension himself but was able to blame Parliament instead given the lack of a Tory majority
Yep. The Benn Act. The creator of this upcoming Tory majority.
Win the battle, lose the war. Benn, Grieve, Bercow and all their oh-so-clever lawyerly friends who tried their best to undermine democracy, yet utterly failed to take account of how the public would see their actions when they were inevitable asked their opinion.
I doubt that Benn, Grieve and Bercow will be too distraught. Benn is well into red rosette on a donkey territory and has a secure job for life. Grieve looks like he's on his way out of Parliament, but he's 63 so can retire on a fat gold-plated pension, possibly supplemented with some legal work. Bercow is now a beloved left-liberal celebrity and will probably make a mint on the lecture circuit where he can continue to enjoy listening to the sound of his own voice at considerable length, as well as getting the customary seat in the House of Lords.
Sadly agree, except for possibly the very last bit. Bercow seems to have realised that Johnson isn’t going to give him a Peerage, so he’s going down the Blair route of the US speaking circuit. He had a row with the BBC last week over an interview on BBC World’s excellent Hard Talk programme. Apparently the first guest they’ve ever had withdraw for refusing to accept an open interview. Bercow ducks interview over questions of bullying “John Bercow cancelled an interview with the BBC after producers refused to accept his demands that he would not be asked questions about allegations that he had bullied staff. Mr Bercow’s agent from JLA, the corporate speaking agency, tried to set restrictions on questions before an interview with Hardtalk, on the BBC World News channel. An email obtained by Buzzfeed News said: “I have only one comment about the proposed subject matter. For good reasons John will not agree to answer questions about bullying allegations or bullying in general. So as long as you confirm today (in writing, please) that Stephen [Sackur, the presenter] will stay clear of that topic altogether we’re good to go ahead.” In a subsequent email Mr Bercow’s agent cancelled the interview: “Just to wrap this up… it’s definitive ‘no’ from John Bercow as a result of this morning’s conversations.”” – The Times https://www.conservativehome.com/frontpage/2019/11/newslinks-for-thursday-21st-november-2019.html
I think JRM said they would not block his peerage the day he stood down.
Thanks, sorry I didn't know if you could be banned or whether it was against the rules. That one post just made me really angry as I do have a connection the events unfortunately and I didn't appreciate that point being made.
Thanks, sorry I didn't know if you could be banned or whether it was against the rules. That one post just made me really angry as I do have a connection the events unfortunately and I didn't appreciate that point being made.
I think that online, as in life generally, a good expletive in the right place can be very effective. It's overuse by people who think it makes them edgy and cool (like Cummings, perhaps) that is silly.
Thanks, sorry I didn't know if you could be banned or whether it was against the rules. That one post just made me really angry as I do have a connection the events unfortunately and I didn't appreciate that point being made.
From previous thread: Good and Bad news for the Conservatives. The bad news is that consumer confidence for November came in at -14, the worst in any election since 1983 apart from 2010 which was at -16. In 2017 it was -10, and Major in 1992 had it at -8. Consumer confidence being above -10 has correctly predicted government majorities in the past 8 out of 9 elections, 1997 was the only time it got it wrong. The good news is that their predicted majority with this week's opinion polls is stable, no change with my swingometer at a majority of 24-88 same as past week, and at 347 (up 2) with Electoral Calculus using the average regional subsamples of all pollsters.
Interesting views. Could the 1997 exception be the result of high confidence because everyone knew Blair's Labour were going to win?
I think 1997 was the exception because it was the only election that government scandals rather than the economy player a much bigger role. 1964 would also have probably been an exception if they had measured consumer confidence back then.
That is true for pretty much all human endeavors. Our lives are better across the board, our sportsmen are better trained, our hospitals and schools are better resourced and the education and health offered is much richer. Our roads are much safer, our air is much cleaner, our cars are much more reliable, our computers are much better and faster. It goes on and on and on.
Absolutely right. And IMO this applies to the arts too. Music, films, TV, novels, poetry, plays etc, all better now than they used to be. Why? Because wider access means more product, thus harder to stand out. Every week there are songs released that are as good as anything by the Beatles. Just that you won't come across them. Yes, progress in everything is inevitable. I believe that. We are even getting better looking. Well, we aren't, quite the opposite, but you know what I mean.
True, and its why that film Yesterday was just nostalgic mush. All those songs are fantastic. But our joy in hearing beatles songs is in how familiar we are with them and how they flood our minds with memories when we hear them.
My significant other got me onto an obscure artist that most people havent heard of. Having been forced to listen to many of his songs over the space of a couple of years i now listen to him a lot and some of them feel to me as good as those classics.
Sorry but I have to disagree. I cannot rate any modern composer with the likes of Schubert. No living artist can rival past masters such as Casper David Friedrich. And I defy anyone to find a play to equal Stoppard's Arcadia since it was written nearly 30 years ago. The real benefit of wider access is that it makes it easier to find the hidden gems from all eras. The example I like is Willy DeVille. A neglected genius in the UK and USA, I first heard his music in Germany (where he is still huge 10 years after his death), and youtube has given me the access to confirm his genius.
You'd rate Schubert ahead of Thom Yorke?
That's a gutsy call on here. People have been banned for less.
Comments
https://www.seattle.gov/democracyvoucher/about-the-program
I dont think someone spending £2 a head for a GE for example is something we need to legislate against, particularly so when we cant enforce our limits effectively anyway.
Benn, Grieve, Bercow and all their oh-so-clever lawyerly friends who tried their best to undermine democracy, yet utterly failed to take account of how the public would see their actions when they were inevitable asked their opinion.
Try getting an appointment with a doctor within three weeks
An opportunity for further coverage of "Brillogate" not to be noticed. I stand to be corrected by events (I very often am) but I don't think Johnson will do that interview. It's an unnecessary risk for him, and that risk increases with every day closer to polling day that all those potential banana skins (and resultant Labour viral video ads) get.
Oh, wait.
The American based GFS, or Global Forecasting System, is the gold standard. It has been showing some fairly wild conditions for election day for some time now.
10 days out is still relatively long term but if I put odds on it being accurate from this range I'd say it's about 50:50.
If the latest 12z run is accurate it's going to cause a LOT of problems. Transport would be disrupted and it would feel bone-chillingly cold.
Of course there were secondary and tertiary objectives for some in stopping Brexit and damaging the Tory party, but if that was their primary objective they would never have got a majority in the Commons.
PS, ive been with the same surgery for forty years and never had an issue getting a same day appointment.
For those who haven’t voted yet and wavering thinking of the important brexit negotiations to come where we need the best person batting for U.K. and that’s Boris on his powerful BBC performance in contrast to Corbyn who cracked in his BBC interview. And on top of all that, the sad events on London Bridge only happened because of what Labour done in 2008, we are thankful to Boris hard working team to find for us overnight.
I reckon Dominic Cummings exited the scene with his blog not because he had to by protocol (since when has that ever bothered him?) and not to play mind games (not at all his style) but because he genuinely believes we're heading for a hung parliament.
The rat left the sinking ship.
East Devon a fair bit more likely than the others IMO due to having a track record at national elections and no opposing incumbent. Gauke I guess has a small chance as well.
Also I'm happy to confirm I am not a bot, just a leftie
That's a gutsy call on here. People have been banned for less.
GP and examination delays are definitely worse, though. I've got a cheek swelling that isn't hurting but is still there after 3 weeks - the GP expressed puzzlement and referred me to an ultrasound test, which I'll get on Jan 2. Now I don't think cancer of the cheek is really a thing unless one has mouth symptoms too, but a month is longer than I'd like to work out what it is. No chance of seeing the GP again befoire then. i think the system is pretty good for mergencies, not so great for things perhaps needing investigation.
Ah, my coat.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.165009846
Johnson 1.26 looks awfully tempting, given that a few Ulstermen and independents (and maybe even the LDs) would either prop him up or abstain, and as the incumbent there’s going to have to be a clear majority of others acting together to force him to resign, rather than present a Queen’s Speech to be voted on.
On misrecall: if pollsters have identified it (or more accurately, differential misrecall) as a source of bias and are trying to compensate for it, why assume they are overcompensating rather than undercompensating?
Has any research been published on recall for GE2017? I'd dearly love to see a comparison of the figures for recall, non-recall and misrecall for voters who voted for each of the parties or abstained, and similarly for the two options in the EUref plus Abstain. But isn't it mostly guesswork? How do you assess whether a voter is misrecalling? Many go completely go over the top when they define segments such as "Labour Leave", "Tory Remain" etc. At the margin there are those to whom it's not very important whether they vote or not, or if they do vote then where they put their cross is not of great emotional significance to them - and therefore they're less likely to recall how they voted.
They assumed Survation - I think - had messed up recently because of recall. I believe Survation said they were using the same model as 2017, which called it within MOE.
I think basically, nobody knows.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/01/lib-dems-suspend-campaigner-over-apparent-email-forgery
Corbyn was a car-crash because he's a fool.
This, however, is a somewhat risky tactic that could backfire disastrously. The other Mr Rook has reminded me of the case of Patrick Gordon-Walker and the Leyton by-election. A recalcitrant electorate could see him rejected again under such circumstances, and then the Tories really would have to look for a replacement.
He had a row with the BBC last week over an interview on BBC World’s excellent Hard Talk programme. Apparently the first guest they’ve ever had withdraw for refusing to accept an open interview.
Bercow ducks interview over questions of bullying
“John Bercow cancelled an interview with the BBC after producers refused to accept his demands that he would not be asked questions about allegations that he had bullied staff. Mr Bercow’s agent from JLA, the corporate speaking agency, tried to set restrictions on questions before an interview with Hardtalk, on the BBC World News channel. An email obtained by Buzzfeed News said: “I have only one comment about the proposed subject matter. For good reasons John will not agree to answer questions about bullying allegations or bullying in general. So as long as you confirm today (in writing, please) that Stephen [Sackur, the presenter] will stay clear of that topic altogether we’re good to go ahead.” In a subsequent email Mr Bercow’s agent cancelled the interview: “Just to wrap this up… it’s definitive ‘no’ from John Bercow as a result of this morning’s conversations.”” – The Times
https://www.conservativehome.com/frontpage/2019/11/newslinks-for-thursday-21st-november-2019.html
Of course, that means many local parties are not technically independents either, even as they call themselves the 'x independents'. Which is not as ridiculous as it sounds since at local levels you might get several groups of independents.
http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP10337
http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP9077
1964 would also have probably been an exception if they had measured consumer confidence back then.