Why do you say that? I don't think you can draw that conclusion from the figures as published.
The Times say
'The SNP would recover some of its losses in Scotland, taking eight seats from rival parties under the model. It predicts that the Tories would lose two of their 12 Scottish seats and Labour would lose five.'
For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard.
So far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff. This time, they literally seem to have every day in the grid as "blank".
It's a good Tory poll. However, I can't read the full article, but see that margins are under 5% in 30 seats (all Tory gains?). Combined with the 11-point lead, that means that the hinge lead where the majority disappears is around 6%. Since this poll - we think - does not allow for any tactical voting, and the 11% is an average over the last week, I wouldn't celebrate too soon if I were a Tory. If ComRes and ICM are correct about a 7% lead..
For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard. No far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff.
Pointless expending ammunition in the first few weeks. It’s the last two weeks the electorate starts paying attention. Apparently.
Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.
…but projected margins of victory are <5% in 30+ Tory-voting seats. "YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 points to <7 points could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority."
I'm really not sure this is the good story everyone thinks it is</p>
You wouldn’t because it’s a disaster for your mate Corbyn. Bloody hell, I was expecting a majority of 30. That is mental.
Plus it gives room for Labour to recover and the tories still get a majority
The Tories should be really worried about how shit the Lib Dems are doing. They need them to be taking votes off Labour.
Yes indeed ... just 8 weeks ago, Sporting was quoting a mid-spread of 49 seats for the LibDems. Tonight's MRP shows them winning barely one quarter of that number. But that was before Swinson's disastrous Revoke policy. Will she be forced to resign I wonder, always assuming she retains her own seat? Oh well, at least they'll save on the taxi fares!
The projected percentages for the three main parties are all within 0.6 points of the average of the last ten polls on Britain Elects, by my reckoning.
So there's quite a degree of consistency now, unlike last time.
For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard. No far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff.
Pointless expending ammunition in the first few weeks. It’s the last two weeks the electorate starts paying attention. Apparently.
Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.
I remember in 2017 we kept saying when is the Tory campaign going to start...when will they start concentrating their fire on the bonkers Labour policies and Corbyn history....it came with about 3 days to go to the GE and was all way too late.
Eastbourne and North Norfolk are probably the Tory gains from LD.
Stephen Lloyd paying the price for saying this time he would go for Remain? He probably had to to restand as a LD, but after 2 years of doing what he said he would do and voting to leave, any credit from leavers he got for that might have dissipated.
The most pleasing part of this for the Tories is it shows even if Labour halved the yougov 10/11 point lead it would still be a Tory majority compared to electoral calculus etc. So the 7 point leads they are getting are still small but safe majorities
I absolutely hold that this is the biggest CON Majority the MRP will show.
We've just been through a week where the Cons posted 19 point polling leads. And now they are posting 9 point leads. That will have an effect on the MRP.
I am going to take positions against this majority now.
Which SLD seat falls to the SNP? Edinburgh West? or East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat)?
Would be pretty harsh on Swinson, I don't see what's so bad about her to be honest, and in 2015 she had the lowest LD drop in vote share in the country.
For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard. No far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff.
Pointless expending ammunition in the first few weeks. It’s the last two weeks the electorate starts paying attention. Apparently.
Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.
I remember in 2017 we kept saying when is the Tory campaign going to start...when will they start concentrating their fire on the bonkers Labour policies and Corbyn history....it came with about 3 days to go to the GE and was all way too late.
LD to CON must be Norfolk North and Westmorland. MUST BE - or could be Carshalton.
I think Farron is in real trouble, I follow him on Facebook and all his facebook is about how he's a great local MP, not a single mention of Brexit.
Could be Eastbourne too.
Con 355ish is what I have been predicting since the election was called. I think LD will do better than 13 seats though will have quite a lot of close seconds.
For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard. No far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff.
Pointless expending ammunition in the first few weeks. It’s the last two weeks the electorate starts paying attention. Apparently.
Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.
I remember in 2017 we kept saying when is the Tory campaign going to start...when will they start concentrating their fire on the bonkers Labour policies and Corbyn history....it came with about 3 days to go to the GE and was all way too late.
The Tories should be really worried about how shit the Lib Dems are doing. They need them to be taking votes off Labour.
The Lib Dem result is great for the Tories. Means one battlefront is fine and they only need small Lab to Con swing for a majority.
Labour HQ will be in meltdown. Things have to get a lot better and quick for them.
I am given to understand that the underlying assumption in this model is of a Tory lead of 11%. That ain't going to happen.
What an awful mess we are in, and with such appalling leadership on practically all sides. If there is a Hung Parliament followed by referendums galore then I really rate the chances of Scotland going this time. By all accounts the Scottish Government isn't particularly good but compared to the total shower of shite on offer from the Westminster parties the SNP appears to be a model of competence and good organisation.
If there's another EU referendum next year I'm certainly voting Remain. Parliament is useless. The more power we can strip from it the better.
For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard. No far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff.
Pointless expending ammunition in the first few weeks. It’s the last two weeks the electorate starts paying attention. Apparently.
Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.
I remember in 2017 we kept saying when is the Tory campaign going to start...when will they start concentrating their fire on the bonkers Labour policies and Corbyn history....it came with about 3 days to go to the GE and was all way too late.
Chill. This. Isn’t. 2017.
Why isn't it?
They don't but they are nowhere near where they need to be.
I absolutely hold that this is the biggest CON Majority the MRP will show.
We've just been through a week where the Cons posted 19 point polling leads. And now they are posting 9 point leads. That will have an effect on the MRP.
I am going to take positions against this majority now.
Adding in the ComRes poll gives: Con Lab LD BXP Green PC SNP Total England 313 195 24 0 1 0 0 533 Wales 14 21 1 0 0 4 0 40 Scotland 9 1 5 0 0 0 44 59 TOTAL 336 217 30 0 1 4 44 632 Tory majority 22 When the youGov MRP comes out, I'll compare it with my model and use it to fine tune my assumptions.
Don't start herding on us, Barnesian!
I won't! I'm not now going to use the YouGov MRP to fine tune my assumptions. I will compare predictions when the data tables are available. I'd need to see the assumptions within the MRP model. If it works the way I think it does in applying the voting intentions of micro populations to constituency demographics then it is underplaying tactical voting and local activists strengths. What favours the YouGov model is its one off track record. I'll continue with my independent view.
LD 13 would be hilarious. Could easily end up down on Tim Farron 2017.
So Bollocks to Brexit becomes sod off to swinson
Right at the start of the campaign, after the very first canvassing session, I reported here how badly she was going down in the SW. Along with Revoke. Without revoke, she might have been given a hearing. But it was not happening. She was actively repelling people away. Not that the LibDems wanted to hear it, of course. Just that viciously anti-LibDem MarqueeMark, doing his usual routine. Whatever. And as for "Prime Minister Jo Swinson"..... *chortle*
The Tories should be really worried about how shit the Lib Dems are doing. They need them to be taking votes off Labour.
The Lib Dem result is great for the Tories. Means one battlefront is fine and they only need small Lab to Con swing for a majority.
Labour HQ will be in meltdown. Things have to get a lot better and quick for them.
I am given to understand that the underlying assumption in this model is of a Tory lead of 11%. That ain't going to happen.
What an awful mess we are in, and with such appalling leadership on practically all sides. If there is a Hung Parliament followed by referendums galore then I really rate the chances of Scotland going this time. By all accounts the Scottish Government isn't particularly good but compared to the total shower of shite on offer from the Westminster parties the SNP appears to be a model of competence and good organisation.
If there's another EU referendum next year I'm certainly voting Remain. Parliament is useless. The more power we can strip from it the better.
The longer they are in power, and the more power they have, the worse the SNP are. They are an improvement only by a small amount. All the main parties are disfunctional in different ways, run by and for cranks.
Adding in the ComRes poll gives: Con Lab LD BXP Green PC SNP Total England 313 195 24 0 1 0 0 533 Wales 14 21 1 0 0 4 0 40 Scotland 9 1 5 0 0 0 44 59 TOTAL 336 217 30 0 1 4 44 632 Tory majority 22 When the youGov MRP comes out, I'll compare it with my model and use it to fine tune my assumptions.
Don't start herding on us, Barnesian!
I won't! I'm not now going to use the YouGov MRP to fine tune my assumptions. I will compare predictions when the data tables are available. I'd need to see the assumptions within the MRP model. If it works the way I think it does in applying the voting intentions of micro populations to constituency demographics then it is underplaying tactical voting and local activists strengths. What favours the YouGov model is its one off track record. I'll continue with my independent view.
Looking at Broxtowe, it's evident that they do include some constituency voting, since they had the LibDems (who are not standing) on 0 and Soubry on a plausible 15%. But having done that, how do they do their MRP adjustment? An explanation would be helpful.
Well we'll have the Tories celebrating (don't blame them) until the next poll and then Labour will be back celebrating, it's all good fun
I am not celebrating and do have reservations.
However I think it is extremely unlikely this result will collapse to a hung parliament
The model does not have Labour coming close to winning any Tory seats. Even Hastings, Chingford or Southampton Itchen. BXP standing down has been a huge help for Boris meaning he can focus less on defence. There are 80 Labour seats the Tories can win on a good day but all with various swings and local factors. To know the Tories may only need to win 10-15 of these for a majority is a huge bonus.
YG say this is based on an 11% lead and LDs on 14%
Surely it's not "based on" an 11-point lead. That comes out of the model. The lead in this model in 2017 was out of kilter with conventional polls, wasn't it? Now it's very much in kilter.
Also, if the Lib Dems get 13 seats that is basically the end of the party.
Nah, we've been down before.
There will be a significantly better national vote share, and many strong second places. While I have been predicting a Con majority, so Parliament will probably go full term, it will be a chaotic shambles of a government.
For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard. No far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff.
Pointless expending ammunition in the first few weeks. It’s the last two weeks the electorate starts paying attention. Apparently.
Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.
I remember in 2017 we kept saying when is the Tory campaign going to start...when will they start concentrating their fire on the bonkers Labour policies and Corbyn history....it came with about 3 days to go to the GE and was all way too late.
Chill. This. Isn’t. 2017.
Why isn't it?
Because it’s 2019. The dynamics are very different. It feels very different.
Labour increasing from a very low base was always going to happen. 2017 was unique in many ways. Count the differences - from a frozen robotic impersonal leader, to abandoned debates, NHS hacks, terrorist attacks, a state of emergency, campaigns frozen, dementia tax, reversal of dementia tax, Jezz fests, leaked Labour manifesto, scores of a Con MPs facing legal action on expenses.....
What is similar this time apart from an opposition clawing their way up the polls? Which always happens. No other similar factor is in play apart from a Labour leader slightly older and much more unloved than last time.
They have a sample of 150ish per seat, and then modify it according to demographics...I think. There are still some assumptions in there - minor candidates are assumed to score 0, for instance.
But lots of interesting results. Labour losing Bolsover but holding Canterbury, for example. All the independents seem doomed.
Comments
'The SNP would recover some of its losses in Scotland, taking eight seats from rival parties under the model. It predicts that the Tories would lose two of their 12 Scottish seats and Labour would lose five.'
Hallam to LD?
So far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff. This time, they literally seem to have every day in the grid as "blank".
But it is in line with Ave it projections ie LD doing nothing, SNP doing less well than some would predict
LAB will come back a bit. Majority on 41-34 is - just - possible
Norfolk North - Con GAIN
remember when it was claimed Corbyn would win back Scotland
Completely out of her depth
Link to the article with the search box.
Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.
It shows Labour getting more than 200 seats
Edinburgh West?
or
East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat)?
Oh well, at least they'll save on the taxi fares!
So there's quite a degree of consistency now, unlike last time.
https://order-order.com/2019/11/27/did-yougov-mrp-leak-moves-markets/
It turns out that Labour are not storming to victory after all.
Caithness.
We've just been through a week where the Cons posted 19 point polling leads. And now they are posting 9 point leads. That will have an effect on the MRP.
I am going to take positions against this majority now.
Con 355ish is what I have been predicting since the election was called. I think LD will do better than 13 seats though will have quite a lot of close seconds.
NEW THREAD
What an awful mess we are in, and with such appalling leadership on practically all sides. If there is a Hung Parliament followed by referendums galore then I really rate the chances of Scotland going this time. By all accounts the Scottish Government isn't particularly good but compared to the total shower of shite on offer from the Westminster parties the SNP appears to be a model of competence and good organisation.
If there's another EU referendum next year I'm certainly voting Remain. Parliament is useless. The more power we can strip from it the better.
Good move on your part
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/dominic-cummings-lets-honour-the-referendum-and-get-brexit-done/
However I think it is extremely unlikely this result will collapse to a hung parliament
What favours the YouGov model is its one off track record.
I'll continue with my independent view.
Whatever.
And as for "Prime Minister Jo Swinson".....
*chortle*
So if gap is 7% as per COM RES and ICM and my prediction of LDs 10 am assuming tiny maj and LD less than 13 seats
All the main parties are disfunctional in different ways, run by and for cranks.
(not a prediction, as find it hard to imagine the buffoon winning a majority albeit the leaders of LD and Lab are doing their best to give it to him)
I think that now looks like a best case for the Tories.
There will be a significantly better national vote share, and many strong second places. While I have been predicting a Con majority, so Parliament will probably go full term, it will be a chaotic shambles of a government.
Labour increasing from a very low base was always going to happen. 2017 was unique in many ways. Count the differences - from a frozen robotic impersonal leader, to abandoned debates, NHS hacks, terrorist attacks, a state of emergency, campaigns frozen, dementia tax, reversal of dementia tax, Jezz fests, leaked Labour manifesto, scores of a Con MPs facing legal action on expenses.....
What is similar this time apart from an opposition clawing their way up the polls? Which always happens. No other similar factor is in play apart from a Labour leader slightly older and much more unloved than last time.
"Go back to your constituency and fight for survival"?
They have a sample of 150ish per seat, and then modify it according to demographics...I think. There are still some assumptions in there - minor candidates are assumed to score 0, for instance.
But lots of interesting results. Labour losing Bolsover but holding Canterbury, for example. All the independents seem doomed.