Reckon that Johnson can get away with a no-show for Andrew Neil. Most voters don't watch the debates let alone these interview shows, so they're unlikely to be swung one way or the other (even if we assume that, like 2017, this is an election where the campaign matters. My understanding is that more often than not in modern electoral history it hasn't made very much difference to the outcome.)
If he just turns up to the engagements already agreed to (I think that would just mean the second head-to-head with Corbyn the week before the election, but feel free to correct me if I'm missing anything else,) then that should suffice.
But he's skipping two debates, this and the climate change one. The former maybe doesn't matter but the latter is going to encourage a lot of people to come out and vote him out. Climate change is a big issue amongst younger voters.
In what sense will the C4 be a debate? Only one opinion will be permitted.
If it's so easy why is Johnson skipping it then?
Nobody has said he IS skipping it. Only that it is not locked in the diary. Yet. Which is amateur hour from Labour. I expect he will do it.
Could be he is trying the Corbyn move from the debates in 2017 - not agree to do it until very late, so opponents are left flat footed (in 2017 because May could be defended on the basis Corbyn also skipped the debate, but then he didn't, this time because attacks on him being cowardly would look foolish when he does show up).
It would look like he’s been bullied into it
Bullied? People tried that line about how that lovely gentleman Mr Corbyn looked because of that beastly Andrew Neil, that it's just as silly if Boris' outriders try to play up his being bullied into doing various things.
I was meaning
Boris says I won’t do it Social media outcry/ chicken Boris says I will do it
Just to be clear about the MRP poll: as I understand it, what it does is use a very large sample in order to get detailed polling on demographic subgroups. Thus, if young women with children are swinging more Labour and elderly working-class men are swinging more Tory, it will detect that. It then projects that onto detailed demographic data for each seat - so if a seat has a lot of elderly working-class men, on the above assumption the Tory swing will be higher.
What is does not do is poll by constituency. So no tactical voting is taken into account, nor are special circumstances, such as a well-known independent standing in the seat. It's therefore of limited benefit in seats like Broxtowe, which re a mess with half a dozen very different types of candidate.
Correct?
I think that's a fair point regarding the complications posed by tactical voting and other local nuances. I had much the same difficulty with my earlier seat modelling based on average swings amongst Leave/Remain subgroups within each 2017 party group. YouGov may have attempted to get around it by trying to find correlations between the effect of demographics and the tactical situation of each seat, and then modelling derived variables that tried to combine the two, but that would be a very complicated MRP model indeed.
The MRP model may have worked in 2017 but the challenges posed by tactical voting were also much less then, in what was turned out to be a simple Con-Lab contest in almost every seat. The 2017 YouGov model predicted that the LDs would get 12 seats (the exact result) but on a higher share of 9%, so it's plausible that that overprediction compensated for a failure to fully model the impact of tactical voting. The challenges of modelling tactical voting are greater in 2019 because the LDs are in frame in many more seats and also because of the difficulty of forming a view on whether a party coming from 3rd might have a better chance than one coming from 2nd (or not).
Good post.
Yes, I think MRP is great on the straight two party or very heavily driven Leave/Remain constituencies but is pretty crap on the tacticals.
So I'll take Scotland with a pinch of salt.
I'm not convinced tactical voting is that hard to model - the reason being that it didn't spring out of nowhere; it slowly developed over the last several elections. So as long as your model looks at the trend over time then it should capture the effects naturally. I assume the yougov model has past results as an input/anchor, else the results would be chaotic. Coupled with preference orders, it should have enough for a reasonable stab at most seats in E&W. Scotland I agree is much harder.
It's still no 166 that the Tories got in 1997 though above 200 is still not absolutely awful. A bit like a premier league team getting over 20 points when being relegated. it's bad but it's no derby county
Going to be a hung parliament isn't it...all those Northern Labour voters are going to come back to Labour in the end and we will be back where we started 2 months ago.
No, it's very bad, though perhaps enough for Corbyn to not resign immediately. But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway. I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not. If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
Reckon that Johnson can get away with a no-show for Andrew Neil. Most voters don't watch the debates let alone these interview shows, so they're unlikely to be swung one way or the other (even if we assume that, like 2017, this is an election where the campaign matters. My understanding is that more often than not in modern electoral history it hasn't made very much difference to the outcome.)
If he just turns up to the engagements already agreed to (I think that would just mean the second head-to-head with Corbyn the week before the election, but feel free to correct me if I'm missing anything else,) then that should suffice.
But he's skipping two debates, this and the climate change one. The former maybe doesn't matter but the latter is going to encourage a lot of people to come out and vote him out. Climate change is a big issue amongst younger voters.
A debate between a lot of politicians on climate change will, in every sense of the phrase, be a lot of hot air. Thatcher called it when she commented acidly that all politicians do is talk about such things.
Maggie was one of the first leading politicians to take climate change seriously. This is her at the UN on the subject.
Unaccustomed as I am to defending Margaret Thatcher, this is absolutely right. I remember it well and at the time it caused almost total astonishment. People were sent scrabbling through their dictionaries for definitions and scratching their heads about concepts that were almost totally alien to the ethos of the 1980's. It really was a complete meme changer.
She had a scientific background, unlike the buffoon who can quote Socrates in Latin or Greek. I know which I think is more useful in a technological civilisation.
It's still no 166 that the Tories got in 1997 though above 200 is still not absolutely awful. A bit like a premier league team getting over 20 points when being relegated. it's bad but it's no derby county
Let's put it this way - it's a place from which to move. And it looks like Labour is going up
Going to be a hung parliament isn't it...all those Northern Labour voters are going to come back to Labour in the end and we will be back where we started 2 months ago.
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
The other candidates were worse, so boring and dull.
They should have put Starmer up, he'd have won it
He'd only been an MP for 5 minutes! Though IIRC some people did mention him as a possibility even then.
The skeleton in the closet is peeking out
You're full of hot air Charles. Constant allusions to how you think you know something major about Keir Starmer but with never a shred of evidence. I have many contacts and there's nothing particularly serious on him.
Some others, on the other hand ...
I don’t know anything about Starmer.
My mother, however, got to know him very well when he was DPP. She has not shared any details of what she knows with me but she is very blunt about her views that he should have been prosecuted.
No, it's very bad, though perhaps enough for Corbyn to not resign immediately. But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway. I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not. If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
Going to be a hung parliament isn't it...all those Northern Labour voters are going to come back to Labour in the end and we will be back where we started 2 months ago.
He's a realist. The wheels are falling off again and it's bloody obvious. The Labour robots are marching home. *EXACTLY* the same as what happened last time.
7 points and closing... I've got that same old 2017 déjà vu feeling all over again!
Average of this week's four polls so far: Con 42% Lab 33% LD 13% Con lead 9%
Below 10% this week. Below 8% next week. Below 6% the week after - at best for Tories they still eke out a majority, at worst they are below around 313 and Corbyn becomes PM.
The tips for big Labour losses that I saw the other day are Don Valley, West Brom West, Bury South and Sedgefield. Looking at Betfair, it seems that bettors have picked up on them already.
No, it's very bad, though perhaps enough for Corbyn to not resign immediately. But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway. I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not. If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
Policies > Labour > Corbyn
Why the Tories have absolutely failed so much to make a dent
Wouldn’t that need a hung parliament prediction from the MRP?
Disclaimer: I still think Boris will get his majority. But.... given what NPXMP said earlier about how this poll is constructed, and given the fact that UNS looks like it will mean very little in this election - how much reliance can be placed in this sort of poll? Could this be one of those elections where the polling companies get a lot of egg on their face?
7 points and closing... I've got that same old 2017 déjà vu feeling all over again!
Average of this week's four polls so far: Con 42% Lab 33% LD 13% Con lead 9%
Below 10% this week. Below 8% next week. Below 6% the week after - at best for Tories they still eke out a majority, at worst they are below around 313 and Corbyn becomes PM.
Good luck to him if Corbyn becomes PM on under 313. If you think the tories are "unpopular" as a government...
More like 360 I think, as Libdem number will be bad
We all accept Corbyn's ineptitude as a given, but to date Jo has been very disappointing. Johnson too has been poor, but less poor than anticipated, but compared to the other two he has looked majestic.
When the election was called I would have thought, like all the other special advisers in accordance with their contracts and the SpAd code. Does he mean he’s resigned from the campaign team?
7 points and closing... I've got that same old 2017 déjà vu feeling all over again!
Average of this week's four polls so far: Con 42% Lab 33% LD 13% Con lead 9%
Below 10% this week. Below 8% next week. Below 6% the week after - at best for Tories they still eke out a majority, at worst they are below around 313 and Corbyn becomes PM.
Good luck to him if Corbyn becomes PM on under 313. If you think the tories are "unpopular" as a government...
If they're at 313 he's becoming PM as head of a minority Government. He'd be on what, 265?
265 + SNP 45 + PC 3 + GR 1, he's already wiped out Johnson
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
I blame, in roughly descending order of guilt: 1. Ed Miliband, for changing the system (as well as losing in 2015 in the first place and for pursuing timid policies in opposition which caused Labour members and MPs to collectively tear their hair out in frustration at the continued absence of any red meat.) 2. Margaret Beckett, for knowingly getting Corbyn over the nominations line. 3. Harriet Harman who used her 15 minutes of fame as caretaker leader to try and promote a radical watering down of Labour's policy on social security. 4. Andy Burnham, for not resigning from the Shadow Cabinet in response to Harman's actions and losing Unite's backing as a consequence. 5. Eric Joyce, who threw the punch that caused his arrest that caused his resignation from Labour that caused Unite to push Karie Murphy on Falkirk and thus caused the debate on union influence over Labour to reignite which caused Miliband to change the leader election system to remove unions in order to try and shut that debate down (not that it did.) Truly an example of a butterfly effect.
Does it? Feels very different to me. I do think there's been a tendency to compare to 2017ntoo readily
I see that idea suggested, but I don't see how - Labour are rising as those tempted by the LDs return home, in Wales and elsewhere where the Tories need to make gains. It's not identical, as the Tories have risen back up to the low 40s rather than starting there, and the LDs are doing a bit better than last time, but neither of those things will make things better for the Tories unless they can increase their share further or Labour stop rising. As Black Rook notes Labour don't need to get as high as last time.
7 points and closing... I've got that same old 2017 déjà vu feeling all over again!
Average of this week's four polls so far: Con 42% Lab 33% LD 13% Con lead 9%
Below 10% this week. Below 8% next week. Below 6% the week after - at best for Tories they still eke out a majority, at worst they are below around 313 and Corbyn becomes PM.
Good luck to him if Corbyn becomes PM on under 313. If you think the tories are "unpopular" as a government...
If they're at 313 he's becoming PM as head of a minority Government. He'd be on what, 265?
265 + SNP 45 + PC 3 + GR 1, he's already wiped out Johnson
And the LDs will not VONC him if they see a 2nd ref coming.
He was supposed to be having some sort of operation wasn't he at the end of October? It was widely reported he would be resigning then for that. Perhaps he is not able to put it off any more.
When the election was called I would have thought, like all the other special advisers in accordance with their contracts and the SpAd code.
Yes you are correct about the contracts. From the Guardian;
Responding to a query about whether or not the publication of the post constituted a breach of the general election purdah rules imposed on special advisers, a Cabinet Office source confirmed Cummings had “resigned following the dissolution of parliament ... along with the majority of special advisers”, on 6 November
Comments
If they're up to 37 in one poll by the weekend, it's going to be a Hung Parliament
Hearing 211 for Labour predicted seats from the MRP YouGov poll
Boris says I won’t do it
Social media outcry/ chicken
Boris says I will do it
Doesn’t look good
I think it's squeeky bum time
I've got that same old 2017 déjà vu feeling all over again!
"He claimed to own 2,000 books on the history of art and to read Noam Chomsky for light relief."
https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/jonathan-miller-norman-lebrecht-reflects-after-writer-dies-at-85-1.493648
Personally I will be astounded if Boris made it.
The polls will keep narrowing. 2017 Mk.2.
Corbyn will be the next PM. Watch.
above 200 is still not absolutely awful. A bit like a premier league team getting over 20 points when being relegated. it's bad but it's no derby county
Con 42%
Lab 33%
LD 13%
Con lead 9%
But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway.
I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not.
If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
I know which I think is more useful in a technological civilisation.
Lol Swinson is fucked
My mother, however, got to know him very well when he was DPP. She has not shared any details of what she knows with me but she is very blunt about her views that he should have been prosecuted.
Below 8% next week.
Below 6% the week after - at best for Tories they still eke out a majority, at worst they are below around 313 and Corbyn becomes PM.
Why the Tories have absolutely failed so much to make a dent
But.... given what NPXMP said earlier about how this poll is constructed, and given the fact that UNS looks like it will mean very little in this election - how much reliance can be placed in this sort of poll?
Could this be one of those elections where the polling companies get a lot of egg on their face?
Good job that I don't take note of polls!
Where do you live?
Does he mean he’s resigned from the campaign team?
265 + SNP 45 + PC 3 + GR 1, he's already wiped out Johnson
1. Ed Miliband, for changing the system (as well as losing in 2015 in the first place and for pursuing timid policies in opposition which caused Labour members and MPs to collectively tear their hair out in frustration at the continued absence of any red meat.)
2. Margaret Beckett, for knowingly getting Corbyn over the nominations line.
3. Harriet Harman who used her 15 minutes of fame as caretaker leader to try and promote a radical watering down of Labour's policy on social security.
4. Andy Burnham, for not resigning from the Shadow Cabinet in response to Harman's actions and losing Unite's backing as a consequence.
5. Eric Joyce, who threw the punch that caused his arrest that caused his resignation from Labour that caused Unite to push Karie Murphy on Falkirk and thus caused the debate on union influence over Labour to reignite which caused Miliband to change the leader election system to remove unions in order to try and shut that debate down (not that it did.) Truly an example of a butterfly effect.
Everyone seems to have forgotten that Labour got to 40% then. They might not do quite that well this time but they don't have to.
What a mess.
It's not identical, as the Tories have risen back up to the low 40s rather than starting there, and the LDs are doing a bit better than last time, but neither of those things will make things better for the Tories unless they can increase their share further or Labour stop rising.
As Black Rook notes Labour don't need to get as high as last time.
It seems like Corbyn is known to be crap - but voters don't seem to care and they're backing Labour anyway.
I always predicted 9 years was going to be tough for a Government to get through
Electoral Calculus National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority
Con 322
Lab 248
It's squeeky bum time...
It appears to be a classified secret.
It’s not as though either deserves one.
Hoping Lab 37 but could be as low as 34
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1199797040135442438?s=20
I wonder if Cummings' blog has caught wind of something happening.
From the Guardian;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/nov/27/general-election-leaders-try-to-steer-campaign-away-from-race-and-faith-live
This is a technicality.