Poor LDs. I really think they need to get into the low 20s at least to have a genuinely good election. Mid to late teens would be pretty good, but 13? Meh.
Today’s version is based on national vote shares of the Conservatives on 43, Labour 32, Lib Dems 14 and the Brexit Party 3. The pollster will repeat the model before election day using updated results. The analysis suggests that this time Mr Johnson is holding off the Lib Dem threat in most Tory seats that voted to remain and will not suffer anything like the wipeout in Scotland that some had predicted.
So Boris only needs a net gain of 10 off Labour for a majority. Must be getting the right votes in the right places. As long as the Tory number stays in the low 40s a 4 point lead might get him a majority given they’re holding off the SNP and Lib Dems
That's a high mark to reach in Scotland; they would not want to rely on that, given how volatile the area can be. Heck, outperforming expectations there last time was the only thing that saved them. When the overall lead is down to 4-6%, this result will look very generous indeed. It'll be the updated one closer to GE day that causes the shocks this time.
…but projected margins of victory are <5% in 30+ Tory-voting seats. "YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 points to <7 points could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority."
I'm really not sure this is the good story everyone thinks it is
So Boris only needs a net gain of 10 off Labour for a majority. Must be getting the right votes in the right places. As long as the Tory number stays in the low 40s a 4 point lead might get him a majority given they’re holding off the SNP and Lib Dems
Yes, a narrow majority looks very likely at the very least if they're not needing to offset losses.
…but projected margins of victory are <5% in 30+ Tory-voting seats. "YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 points to <7 points could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority."
I'm really not sure this is the good story everyone thinks it is</p>
…but projected margins of victory are <5% in 30+ Tory-voting seats. "YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 points to <7 points could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority."
I'm really not sure this is the good story everyone thinks it is</p>
A lower Tory lead leads to no majority? I'm genuinely shocked.
Any specifics on the seats? Those LibDem seats suggest what I'm hearing - they are going to gain a few - Richmond, Cheltenham, maybe St. Ives - but lose some seats they currently would have us think are absolute bankers.....
…but projected margins of victory are <5% in 30+ Tory-voting seats. "YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 points to <7 points could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority."
I'm really not sure this is the good story everyone thinks it is</p>
Everyone DOESN’T think this is a good story. I don’t. For a start. I reckon it’s over-optimistic for the Tories.
…but projected margins of victory are <5% in 30+ Tory-voting seats. "YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 points to <7 points could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority."
I'm really not sure this is the good story everyone thinks it is</p>
You wouldn’t because it’s a disaster for your mate Corbyn. Bloody hell, I was expecting a majority of 30. That is mental.
Comments
Conservative: 359 (+42)
Labour: 211 (-51)
Lib Dem: 13 (+1)
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1199810130054930436?s=20
Let's see if i've dropped a clanger in a minute lol.
I don't need to post here again! (possibly)
(Canadian accent) Terrrrrrriiiible night for the LDs.
Con 43%,
Labour 32%,
SNP 3%,
Lib Dems 14%,
Plaid <1%,
Green 3%,
BP 3%
Implies 11 point lead, so if that narrows, well off we go again.
I think it's going to narrow a lot.
Not sure it's helpful to Boris.
Ulp.
When the overall lead is down to 4-6%, this result will look very generous indeed.
It'll be the updated one closer to GE day that causes the shocks this time.
Labour HQ will be in meltdown. Things have to get a lot better and quick for them.
I'm really not sure this is the good story everyone thinks it is
As you were chaps.
Must mean Tories getting votes where they need them and Labour at risk of piling them up in safe seats elsewhere?
Yes, a narrow majority looks very likely at the very least if they're not needing to offset losses.
MUST BE - or could be Carshalton.
I think Farron is in real trouble, I follow him on Facebook and all his facebook is about how he's a great local MP, not a single mention of Brexit.
Personally I like a record - if they are to lose big, doing worse than Foot would be nice.
Call me arrogant, I don't mind. But I think the shouts of "it's over, it's finished, Johnson has won" is far too early to say now
Lab 49%
SNP 23%
Lab hold
Should be 250/1.