I see the BJorg are out defending their master's cowardice as simultaneously a masterstroke of low cunning and high principle.
Surprise level less than fuck all.
Not me. This is really bad from Boris, it will backfire badly. It will build a narrative like it did for May.
I can't see how he could defend it. Yes he has done a debate, but everyone in politics knows a debate is not the same thing as a detailed inverview, particularly one from a broadcaster known to be good at the job. He wouldn't be able to stop the narrative getting out that he was frit, and what would the counter to that claim be? He could only use the same lines May tried, but that doesn't hold water. I thought Boris was meant to have guts? He surely has something planned, not just running scared?
I see the BJorg are out defending their master's cowardice as simultaneously a masterstroke of low cunning and high principle.
Surprise level less than fuck all.
Not me. This is really bad from Boris, it will backfire badly. It will build a narrative like it did for May.
I can't see how he could defend it. Yes he has done a debate, but everyone in politics knows a debate is not the same thing as a detailed inverview, particularly one from a broadcaster known to be good at the job. He wouldn't be able to stop the narrative getting out that he was firt, and what would the counter to that claim be? He could only use the same lines May tried, but that doesn't hold water. I thought Boris was meant to have guts? He surely has something planned, not just running scared?
I think if anyone had said May would avoid debates in 2017 they'd have been laughed out of the room.
To be fair Cameron started it, so there is precedent for it
tJust seen this elswhere he key theme that emerges from the YouGov MRP seat-by-seat poll is the northern and midlands Labour leave voting constituencies, which in many places, now show comfortable Tory leads. ——————— This would explain why the Labour Party / Momentum has apparently (according to an activist friend in the constituency) abandoned canvassing in the Bassetlaw constituency.
Even I could tell you current polling shows any Labour seats with high percentage of C2DE are in trouble.
I see the BJorg are out defending their master's cowardice as simultaneously a masterstroke of low cunning and high principle.
Surprise level less than fuck all.
Not me. This is really bad from Boris, it will backfire badly. It will build a narrative like it did for May.
It’s not as bad as May clearly as it’s an interview compared to debates. It would be a calculated gamble, but I expect he will decide to do it. Makes sense to decide late though.
That it does, but I'd disagree it is not as bad, as I'd say it is worse. Partisan sources find it easier to defend not bothering to 'debate' your rival, being busy facing the public and all that, but being scared of a journalist?
Reckon that Johnson can get away with a no-show for Andrew Neil. Most voters don't watch the debates let alone these interview shows, so they're unlikely to be swung one way or the other (even if we assume that, like 2017, this is an election where the campaign matters. My understanding is that more often than not in modern electoral history it hasn't made very much difference to the outcome.)
If he just turns up to the engagements already agreed to (I think that would just mean the second head-to-head with Corbyn the week before the election, but feel free to correct me if I'm missing anything else,) then that should suffice.
But he's skipping two debates, this and the climate change one. The former maybe doesn't matter but the latter is going to encourage a lot of people to come out and vote him out. Climate change is a big issue amongst younger voters.
A debate between a lot of politicians on climate change will, in every sense of the phrase, be a lot of hot air. Thatcher called it when she commented acidly that all politicians do is talk about such things.
Maggie was one of the first leading politicians to take climate change seriously. This is her at the UN on the subject.
Unaccustomed as I am to defending Margaret Thatcher, this is absolutely right. I remember it well and at the time it caused almost total astonishment. People were sent scrabbling through their dictionaries for definitions and scratching their heads about concepts that were almost totally alien to the ethos of the 1980's.
It really was a complete meme changer.
Totally different standard to the tripe of leaders we have today.
He's very good. I've said so several times. Heart of gold too.
Like I said earlier. He has the rare distinction of being able to make Boris look honest.
Nobody could manage that. But one of the worrying things about current politics is that when lined up against others he does not stand out for his serial mendacity.
People who write “Bozo” are no different to the subnormals write “Blair”. Two sides of the same moron.
Wasn't his name Blair?
I love autocorrect. But what’s most paradoxical about that post is that in writing the word in order to illustrate his point, the poster has identified himself as subnormal.
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
The other candidates were worse, so boring and dull.
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
The other candidates were worse, so boring and dull.
They should have put Starmer up, he'd have won it
He'd only been an MP for 5 minutes! Though IIRC some people did mention him as a possibility even then.
Just to be clear about the MRP poll: as I understand it, what it does is use a very large sample in order to get detailed polling on demographic subgroups. Thus, if young women with children are swinging more Labour and elderly working-class men are swinging more Tory, it will detect that. It then projects that onto detailed demographic data for each seat - so if a seat has a lot of elderly working-class men, on the above assumption the Tory swing will be higher.
What is does not do is poll by constituency. So no tactical voting is taken into account, nor are special circumstances, such as a well-known independent standing in the seat. It's therefore of limited benefit in seats like Broxtowe, which re a mess with half a dozen very different types of candidate.
Correct?
I think that's a fair point regarding the complications posed by tactical voting and other local nuances. I had much the same difficulty with my earlier seat modelling based on average swings amongst Leave/Remain subgroups within each 2017 party group. YouGov may have attempted to get around it by trying to find correlations between the effect of demographics and the tactical situation of each seat, and then modelling derived variables that tried to combine the two, but that would be a very complicated MRP model indeed.
The MRP model may have worked in 2017 but the challenges posed by tactical voting were also much less then, in what was turned out to be a simple Con-Lab contest in almost every seat. The 2017 YouGov model predicted that the LDs would get 12 seats (the exact result) but on a higher share of 9%, so it's plausible that that overprediction compensated for a failure to fully model the impact of tactical voting. The challenges of modelling tactical voting are greater in 2019 because the LDs are in frame in many more seats and also because of the difficulty of forming a view on whether a party coming from 3rd might have a better chance than one coming from 2nd (or not).
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
Barry Gardiner is my MP (Brent North). Although I have never voted for him, he is very respected in the constituency.
Reckon that Johnson can get away with a no-show for Andrew Neil. Most voters don't watch the debates let alone these interview shows, so they're unlikely to be swung one way or the other (even if we assume that, like 2017, this is an election where the campaign matters. My understanding is that more often than not in modern electoral history it hasn't made very much difference to the outcome.)
If he just turns up to the engagements already agreed to (I think that would just mean the second head-to-head with Corbyn the week before the election, but feel free to correct me if I'm missing anything else,) then that should suffice.
But he's skipping two debates, this and the climate change one. The former maybe doesn't matter but the latter is going to encourage a lot of people to come out and vote him out. Climate change is a big issue amongst younger voters.
In what sense will the C4 be a debate? Only one opinion will be permitted.
If it's so easy why is Johnson skipping it then?
Nobody has said he IS skipping it. Only that it is not locked in the diary. Yet. Which is amateur hour from Labour. I expect he will do it.
Could be he is trying the Corbyn move from the debates in 2017 - not agree to do it until very late, so opponents are left flat footed (in 2017 because May could be defended on the basis Corbyn also skipped the debate, but then he didn't, this time because attacks on him being cowardly would look foolish when he does show up).
Tales from Hampstead & Kilburn:- Still no reply from Labour to my abortion query. Tsk. The Tories replied on the WASPI issue within 24 hours. And then, the cheeky so and so's, their local candidate sent me an email about how wonderful he was. He is quite young and rather fit and handsome (and has quite an unusual CV - the arts / rowing etc as well as government). Interestingly he also emphasised how pro-Remain he was. But I. Must. Not. Be. Shallow. The Lib Dems continue to bombard me with literature. And one of their canvassers came round the other day. Plus there was a very nice handsome young man from Greenpeace who came round. We had a long and interesting chat about green issues, he turned out to be half-Italian (with a Papa from Naples) so the chat became even more interesting. One bit of paper from Labour was handed to me by a leaflet stuffer and I told him in no uncertain terms my views on the WASPI issue. So if that was you, @kinabalu, I hope you have relayed my cogent opinion back to Tulip! Oh - and 2 bits of literature from Nigel Farage's BXP. Bizarre. In Hampstead of all places. Still, all good for lighting the fire in these damp and dank times. My postal vote has arrived. But I shall wait until the day itself and then hand it in at the polling station. I assume I can do this. Just in case there is some critical revelation ....... Boris promising to slaughter the first-born, Corbyn asking me to be City Supremo / Chancellor / Minister in Charge of Doing Things Competently, that sort of thing. (Well, we all have our price, don't we?....... )
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
The other candidates were worse, so boring and dull.
They should have put Starmer up, he'd have won it
He'd only been an MP for 5 minutes! Though IIRC some people did mention him as a possibility even then.
Ironically if Cooper had won it we might have two candidates for PM both with a risk of losing their seat
I knew it's anecdotal but in my part of Hampshire, this is quite a common view...
And yet most people will still vote red or blue, so however many people say that, and I'm sure many believe themselves when they say it, they won't carry it through.
I wonder if the fact the Tories supposedly lost 19 odd seats of their advantage at the weekend suggests they were winning an awful lot of seats to begin with.
Mind you for most Tories any majority over 30 at this stage would be worth getting the party whistles out for!
Reckon that Johnson can get away with a no-show for Andrew Neil. Most voters don't watch the debates let alone these interview shows, so they're unlikely to be swung one way or the other (even if we assume that, like 2017, this is an election where the campaign matters. My understanding is that more often than not in modern electoral history it hasn't made very much difference to the outcome.)
If he just turns up to the engagements already agreed to (I think that would just mean the second head-to-head with Corbyn the week before the election, but feel free to correct me if I'm missing anything else,) then that should suffice.
But he's skipping two debates, this and the climate change one. The former maybe doesn't matter but the latter is going to encourage a lot of people to come out and vote him out. Climate change is a big issue amongst younger voters.
In what sense will the C4 be a debate? Only one opinion will be permitted.
If it's so easy why is Johnson skipping it then?
Nobody has said he IS skipping it. Only that it is not locked in the diary. Yet. Which is amateur hour from Labour. I expect he will do it.
Could be he is trying the Corbyn move from the debates in 2017 - not agree to do it until very late, so opponents are left flat footed (in 2017 because May could be defended on the basis Corbyn also skipped the debate, but then he didn't, this time because attacks on him being cowardly would look foolish when he does show up).
It would look like he’s been bullied into it
Bullied? People tried that line about how that lovely gentleman Mr Corbyn looked because of that beastly Andrew Neil, that it's just as silly if Boris' outriders try to play up his being bullied into doing various things.
Who thought it was a good idea to brief a load of journalists, then wait 10hrs to make them public...
Yeah, it's completely ridiculous. Opens up for so much ridiculous market manipulation. Surely the FCA should be regulating polling data in the same way as insider information. Polls move currency markets.
One man's (woman's?) "basic common decency" is another's "really not doing their job properly". If she feels that way, why on earth is she standing, and what is she being reassuring about?
Tales from Hampstead & Kilburn:- Still no reply from Labour to my abortion query. Tsk. The Tories replied on the WASPI issue within 24 hours. And then, the cheeky so and so's, their local candidate sent me an email about how wonderful he was. He is quite young and rather fit and handsome (and has quite an unusual CV - the arts / rowing etc as well as government). Interestingly he also emphasised how pro-Remain he was. But I. Must. Not. Be. Shallow.
I’ve been intrigued by Lord Sugar’s tweets (he just came out to say the labour line on the NHS is untrue and he’s continually negative about them). He has 5m viewers and a lot of reach when the Apprentice is on.
People who write “Bozo” are no different to the subnormals write “Blair”. Two sides of the same moron.
Wasn't his name Blair?
I love autocorrect. But what’s most paradoxical about that post is that in writing the word in order to illustrate his point, the poster has identified himself as subnormal.
I still insist on calling him "Tiny Blur". Am I subnormal? Serious question (sort of).
Just to be clear about the MRP poll: as I understand it, what it does is use a very large sample in order to get detailed polling on demographic subgroups. Thus, if young women with children are swinging more Labour and elderly working-class men are swinging more Tory, it will detect that. It then projects that onto detailed demographic data for each seat - so if a seat has a lot of elderly working-class men, on the above assumption the Tory swing will be higher.
What is does not do is poll by constituency. So no tactical voting is taken into account, nor are special circumstances, such as a well-known independent standing in the seat. It's therefore of limited benefit in seats like Broxtowe, which re a mess with half a dozen very different types of candidate.
Correct?
I think that's a fair point regarding the complications posed by tactical voting and other local nuances. I had much the same difficulty with my earlier seat modelling based on average swings amongst Leave/Remain subgroups within each 2017 party group. YouGov may have attempted to get around it by trying to find correlations between the effect of demographics and the tactical situation of each seat, and then modelling derived variables that tried to combine the two, but that would be a very complicated MRP model indeed.
The MRP model may have worked in 2017 but the challenges posed by tactical voting were also much less then, in what was turned out to be a simple Con-Lab contest in almost every seat. The 2017 YouGov model predicted that the LDs would get 12 seats (the exact result) but on a higher share of 9%, so it's plausible that that overprediction compensated for a failure to fully model the impact of tactical voting. The challenges of modelling tactical voting are greater in 2019 because the LDs are in frame in many more seats and also because of the difficulty of forming a view on whether a party coming from 3rd might have a better chance than one coming from 2nd (or not).
Good post.
Yes, I think MRP is great on the straight two party or very heavily driven Leave/Remain constituencies but is pretty crap on the tacticals.
Will this YouGov model be updated every day like in the last election .
YouGov does two sets of polls:
* The classic one using an online panel to deduce voting intention, * and the MRP poll that uses that panel to deduce the voting intention by age/sex/socioeconomic group and cross-references that to each constituency to deduce seat counts
Which one are you referring to?
Thanks for the reply . Maybe my memory is shot but I remember a poll that came out daily and was something like the MRP .
Can people clarify - what is the effective date for YouGov MRP? Is it what YouGov think the position is today? Or yesterday? Or average over last week? Or what?
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
The other candidates were worse, so boring and dull.
They should have put Starmer up, he'd have won it
He'd only been an MP for 5 minutes! Though IIRC some people did mention him as a possibility even then.
Can people clarify - what is the effective date for YouGov MRP? Is it what YouGov think the position is today? Or yesterday? Or average over last week? Or what?
If 340 is on a 10 point lead, can anyone work it out on a lower lead?
From the last thread, based on a 7 point lead (cf ICM poll) my 2016 referendum-based model has the Conservatives on a net gain of 14 in England. Assuming that gains and losses in Scotland and Wales cancel out for them, that would leave the Conservatives on 332.
If I change the model to force a 10 point lead, it gives the Conservatives a net gain of 32 in England, so maybe 35 or so allowing for a slightly better result for them also in Scotland/Wales. That would take them up to 353.
So that's about 31 more across GB on a 10% lead than on a 7% lead. But that's on my model, not the YouGov MRP.
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
The other candidates were worse, so boring and dull.
They should have put Starmer up, he'd have won it
He'd only been an MP for 5 minutes! Though IIRC some people did mention him as a possibility even then.
The skeleton in the closet is peeking out
You're full of hot air Charles. Constant allusions to how you think you know something major about Keir Starmer but with never a shred of evidence. I have many contacts and there's nothing particularly serious on him.
Tales from Hampstead & Kilburn:- Still no reply from Labour to my abortion query. Tsk. The Tories replied on the WASPI issue within 24 hours. And then, the cheeky so and so's, their local candidate sent me an email about how wonderful he was. He is quite young and rather fit and handsome (and has quite an unusual CV - the arts / rowing etc as well as government). Interestingly he also emphasised how pro-Remain he was. But I. Must. Not. Be. Shallow. The Lib Dems continue to bombard me with literature. And one of their canvassers came round the other day. Plus there was a very nice handsome young man from Greenpeace who came round. We had a long and interesting chat about green issues, he turned out to be half-Italian (with a Papa from Naples) so the chat became even more interesting. One bit of paper from Labour was handed to me by a leaflet stuffer and I told him in no uncertain terms my views on the WASPI issue. So if that was you, @kinabalu, I hope you have relayed my cogent opinion back to Tulip! Oh - and 2 bits of literature from Nigel Farage's BXP. Bizarre. In Hampstead of all places. Still, all good for lighting the fire in these damp and dank times. My postal vote has arrived. But I shall wait until the day itself and then hand it in at the polling station. I assume I can do this. Just in case there is some critical revelation ....... Boris promising to slaughter the first-born, Corbyn asking me to be City Supremo / Chancellor / Minister in Charge of Doing Things Competently, that sort of thing. (Well, we all have our price, don't we?....... )
Yes, lots of people do this nowadays. It doesn’t even have to be your own polling station, though it is quicker if it is.
Corbyn's actually going to pull off another recovery isn't he? I don't know how he manages it. Granted I don't know how he does so badly as to poll so low in the first place and therefore requiring a recovering, but never mind.
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
The other candidates were worse, so boring and dull.
They should have put Starmer up, he'd have won it
He'd only been an MP for 5 minutes! Though IIRC some people did mention him as a possibility even then.
Ironically if Cooper had won it we might have two candidates for PM both with a risk of losing their seat
Surely you mean 3, including the LibDems' candidate for PM?
Comments
I thought Boris was meant to have guts? He surely has something planned, not just running scared?
One of us lies, the other one is me
To be fair Cameron started it, so there is precedent for it
If 340 is on a 10 point lead, can anyone work it out on a lower lead?
Favourite is now 340-349 6s
What has changed in two and a half years?
Hopefully quite a bit. Although on Labour and Anti-semitism, "Nothing has changed".
https://youtu.be/bWLN7rIby9s
But what’s most paradoxical about that post is that in writing the word in order to illustrate his point, the poster has identified himself as subnormal.
https://dominiccummings.com/2019/11/27/on-the-referendum-34-batsignal-dont-let-corbyn-sturgeon-cheat-a-second-referendum-with-millions-of-foreign-votes/
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
They should have put Starmer up, he'd have won it
The MRP model may have worked in 2017 but the challenges posed by tactical voting were also much less then, in what was turned out to be a simple Con-Lab contest in almost every seat. The 2017 YouGov model predicted that the LDs would get 12 seats (the exact result) but on a higher share of 9%, so it's plausible that that overprediction compensated for a failure to fully model the impact of tactical voting. The challenges of modelling tactical voting are greater in 2019 because the LDs are in frame in many more seats and also because of the difficulty of forming a view on whether a party coming from 3rd might have a better chance than one coming from 2nd (or not).
I knew it's anecdotal but in my part of Hampshire, this is quite a common view...
Still no reply from Labour to my abortion query. Tsk.
The Tories replied on the WASPI issue within 24 hours. And then, the cheeky so and so's, their local candidate sent me an email about how wonderful he was. He is quite young and rather fit and handsome (and has quite an unusual CV - the arts / rowing etc as well as government). Interestingly he also emphasised how pro-Remain he was.
But I. Must. Not. Be. Shallow.
The Lib Dems continue to bombard me with literature. And one of their canvassers came round the other day.
Plus there was a very nice handsome young man from Greenpeace who came round. We had a long and interesting chat about green issues, he turned out to be half-Italian (with a Papa from Naples) so the chat became even more interesting.
One bit of paper from Labour was handed to me by a leaflet stuffer and I told him in no uncertain terms my views on the WASPI issue. So if that was you, @kinabalu, I hope you have relayed my cogent opinion back to Tulip!
Oh - and 2 bits of literature from Nigel Farage's BXP. Bizarre. In Hampstead of all places.
Still, all good for lighting the fire in these damp and dank times.
My postal vote has arrived. But I shall wait until the day itself and then hand it in at the polling station. I assume I can do this. Just in case there is some critical revelation ....... Boris promising to slaughter the first-born, Corbyn asking me to be City Supremo / Chancellor / Minister in Charge of Doing Things Competently, that sort of thing. (Well, we all have our price, don't we?.......
That would be called anti-semitism if Labour said that.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1199768445451165696
Mind you for most Tories any majority over 30 at this stage would be worth getting the party whistles out for!
Nobody fears a buffoon.
People fear Corbyn though - as PM.
Which constituency?
One hour 7 mins to go
Dynamics are also different there, with unionist votes more interchangeable and less the straight Tory/Labour demographic fights.
Hmm
He has 5m viewers and a lot of reach when the Apprentice is on.
Yes, I think MRP is great on the straight two party or very heavily driven Leave/Remain constituencies but is pretty crap on the tacticals.
So I'll take Scotland with a pinch of salt.
Is it what YouGov think the position is today?
Or yesterday?
Or average over last week?
Or what?
If I change the model to force a 10 point lead, it gives the Conservatives a net gain of 32 in England, so maybe 35 or so allowing for a slightly better result for them also in Scotland/Wales. That would take them up to 353.
So that's about 31 more across GB on a 10% lead than on a 7% lead. But that's on my model, not the YouGov MRP.
Some others, on the other hand ...
Granted I don't know how he does so badly as to poll so low in the first place and therefore requiring a recovering, but never mind.
Why is LD now being depicted as the Chick Chick Chicken party?!
She'll vote Conservative if she's worried about the national result, and LD if she isn't.
Off we go again
(Stop laughing at the back)
- this is an opinion poll
- it's not a constituency level poll
- it's an opinion poll
- there's no tactical voting adjustment
oh, and did I mention that
- it's an opinion poll
Adding a little else to that, YouGov have tended to show bigger Conservative leads and have been less favourable to Labour.