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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2019

    Why would Cummings resign?

    Rumour was health problems that require a hospital stay and some recuperation.
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    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One hour guys. One hour!!!!!!!

    I am ready, man! Ready to get it on! :lol:
    Sunil, I'm telling you, I got a bad feeling about this drop.
    Hey, Ishmael, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic Ed Balls breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, leaflets with bar charts, posters...
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,188

    When I saw that Wales poll, then it felt like 2017 again.

    It seems like Corbyn is known to be crap - but voters don't seem to care and they're backing Labour anyway.

    I always predicted 9 years was going to be tough for a Government to get through

    Obviously. The alternative is Boris Johnson.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,504
    Cummings has NOT resigned - BBC
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    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314

    The Conservatives seem to be suffering from the fact that a lot of voters don’t want either main party to have a mandate.
    It’s not as though either deserves one.

    As some wise words that people ignored because they did not like hearing it put it, Nothing Has Changed.
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    All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    NOM 3.8 betfair

    3.4 this morning. That’s quite a drift. Assume this will have a decent Tory majority...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314
    edited November 2019

    Why would Cummings resign?

    We've been told he would resign in the autumn all year. If he hasn't yet that would be the real surprise.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,306
    GIN1138 said:

    Going to be a hung parliament isn't it...all those Northern Labour voters are going to come back to Labour in the end and we will be back where we started 2 months ago.

    Has SeanT hacked FUs account? :D
    That would be Byronic if he has.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One hour guys. One hour!!!!!!!

    I am ready, man! Ready to get it on! :lol:
    Sunil, I'm telling you, I got a bad feeling about this drop.
    Let me put it like this.

    If I had a lot of money riding on a tory majority and I was unscrupulous I'd seed a false rumour and cash out my losses.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Seems (unsurprisingly) that the YouGov MRP is going to be pretty similar to the Datapraxis one (using Yougov data) that came out the other day.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Remember in 2015 CON weren't ahead by 7% in any poll!

    Until the final result!!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,306
    No argument from me...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204

    When the election was called I would have thought, like all the other special advisers in accordance with their contracts and the SpAd code.
    Yes you are correct about the contracts.
    From the Guardian;
    Responding to a query about whether or not the publication of the post constituted a breach of the general election purdah rules imposed on special advisers, a Cabinet Office source confirmed Cummings had “resigned following the dissolution of parliament ... along with the majority of special advisers”, on 6 November

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/nov/27/general-election-leaders-try-to-steer-campaign-away-from-race-and-faith-live

    This is a technicality.
    Sounds like a non-story then.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,938
    Andrew said:

    Perhaps: Con356 Lab211

    Why would Cummings resign?

    He has supposedly serious health problems.
    It's standard he steps down during purdah:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50569827
    It's temporary. (Although when Boris is no longer PM after 12th Dec maybe Dom's departure bcomes permanent!)
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,109

    Electoral Calculus for ComRes says:

    Electoral Calculus National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority
    Con 322
    Lab 248

    It's squeeky bum time...

    On 41/34/13/5/2/0 I'm seeing Con majority 10?
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The Conservatives seem to be suffering from the fact that a lot of voters don’t want either main party to have a mandate.

    It’s not as though either deserves one.

    It's not even that complex, it's simply the Labour vote going back home again.

    Now, when do we think the referendums are going to be next year? EU in about April and Scotland in September?
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    All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?

    No.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Tales from Hampstead & Kilburn:-
    Still no reply from Labour to my abortion query. Tsk.
    The Tories replied on the WASPI issue within 24 hours. And then, the cheeky so and so's, their local candidate sent me an email about how wonderful he was. He is quite young and rather fit and handsome (and has quite an unusual CV - the arts / rowing etc as well as government). Interestingly he also emphasised how pro-Remain he was.
    But I. Must. Not. Be. Shallow.
    The Lib Dems continue to bombard me with literature. And one of their canvassers came round the other day.
    Plus there was a very nice handsome young man from Greenpeace who came round. We had a long and interesting chat about green issues, he turned out to be half-Italian (with a Papa from Naples) so the chat became even more interesting.
    One bit of paper from Labour was handed to me by a leaflet stuffer and I told him in no uncertain terms my views on the WASPI issue. So if that was you, @kinabalu, I hope you have relayed my cogent opinion back to Tulip!
    Oh - and 2 bits of literature from Nigel Farage's BXP. Bizarre. In Hampstead of all places.
    Still, all good for lighting the fire in these damp and dank times.
    My postal vote has arrived. But I shall wait until the day itself and then hand it in at the polling station. I assume I can do this. Just in case there is some critical revelation ....... Boris promising to slaughter the first-born, Corbyn asking me to be City Supremo / Chancellor / Minister in Charge of Doing Things Competently, that sort of thing. (Well, we all have our price, don't we?....... :) )

    Yes, lots of people do this nowadays. It doesn’t even have to be your own polling station, though it is quicker if it is.
    Thank you.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?

    2015 Labour had considerably more leads than the Tories over the campaign.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    One hour guys. One hour!!!!!!!

    I am ready, man! Ready to get it on! :lol:
    Sunil, I'm telling you, I got a bad feeling about this drop.
    Hey, Ishmael, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic Ed Balls breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, leaflets with bar charts, posters...
    When we get back without you, I'll call your folks.
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    All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?

    No.
    Me and my useless memory
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,012

    All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?

    In 2017 I fully bought into the Tory landslide view. It was reinforced by the strongest canvassing I'd ever witnessed in Dorset. My friends in the North, and reports from the Midlands, suggested otherwise.

    This time, things seem flatter around here, but markedly better elsewhere. Part of me wonders if the Tory polling leads are driven by large swings in Leavy marginal areas where there is a large Labour vote to squeeze, rather than by piling up votes in safe Dorset seats.

    Anecdotally, my canvassing totally reinforces what is happening to the Libs. The only thing less popular than the revoke policy is the choice of leader....
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,350

    All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?

    The only way that I can compare it with 2017 is that then, and now, going into both campaigns a proportion of labour voters were unsure as to whether they were going to vote for labour again. The tribalism in the labour vote and the fact that it's boris on the other side has made a good chunk of them be more prepared to vote labour this time.
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    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1199801346247012354

    Almost perfectly tallies with the poll gap
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,201
    I am on NOM at 4.0.

    Happy with this weeks polls.

    Mr Urqhart buying new suitcases.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314
    nico67 said:

    It’s like waiting for the Eurovision results in here tonight. Calm down folks it’s just one poll !

    Yes it is, that's why the fact of Labour increasing in strength on average is more relevant.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,306

    Roger said:

    Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.

    It does beg the question though...

    How the hell did they end up with jeremy?

    I blame, in roughly descending order of guilt:
    1. Ed Miliband, for changing the system (as well as losing in 2015 in the first place and for pursuing timid policies in opposition which caused Labour members and MPs to collectively tear their hair out in frustration at the continued absence of any red meat.)
    2. Margaret Beckett, for knowingly getting Corbyn over the nominations line.
    3. Harriet Harman who used her 15 minutes of fame as caretaker leader to try and promote a radical watering down of Labour's policy on social security.
    4. Andy Burnham, for not resigning from the Shadow Cabinet in response to Harman's actions and losing Unite's backing as a consequence.
    5. Eric Joyce, who threw the punch that caused his arrest that caused his resignation from Labour that caused Unite to push Karie Murphy on Falkirk and thus caused the debate on union influence over Labour to reignite which caused Miliband to change the leader election system to remove unions in order to try and shut that debate down (not that it did.) Truly an example of a butterfly effect.
    It’s the wheel that makes the thing that turns that makes the thingummybob go round...
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,005
    Ave_it said:

    Remember in 2015 CON weren't ahead by 7% in any poll!

    Until the final result!!

    I worry that over compensation after the 2017 debacle is now over representative of Labour and under reporting Tories.
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,516
    Brom said:

    NOM 3.8 betfair

    3.4 this morning. That’s quite a drift. Assume this will have a decent Tory majority...
    I just think its madness it spiked so high two weeks out and 25% chance of NOM??
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Don't forget 1987.

    LAB moved up a bit in the campaign and then CON won big!

    But we had Maggie then!
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    NOM 3.8 betfair

    Free money say the Lab 2017 rampers
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    Ave_it said:

    Remember in 2015 CON weren't ahead by 7% in any poll!

    Until the final result!!

    I worry that over compensation after the 2017 debacle is now over representative of Labour and under reporting Tories.
    Hasn't YouGov completely accounted for this effect though?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,504

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1199801346247012354

    Almost perfectly tallies with the poll gap

    LibDems so low as nobody expects them to deliver anything ever again.......
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    There’s a point at which attacks on Corbyn start to become counter productive.

    As for the AS problems , to be blunt when the Tories have their own problems they can’t moralize and the public think both parties have issues.

    The media are obsessed with AS and are living in a bubble . Today’s questions at the NHS press conference droning on about apology gate were yet more cremation of the AS saga which has been priced in .

    It’s very hard for the Tories when their leader has written loads of incendiary articles . One can only imagine the furore if Corbyn had done similar .
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314
    edited November 2019

    Going to be a hung parliament isn't it...all those Northern Labour voters are going to come back to Labour in the end and we will be back where we started 2 months ago.

    Not so. If we end up with the same parliamentary arithmetic as 2 months ago we will be remaining. If Boris had pushed ahead 2 months ago we would have left. Leave its own worst enemy and the Tories unable to resist the siren song of the polls being very useful.
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    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1199788502176518144

    The narrative Labour wanted is building
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,109
    Ave_it said:

    Don't forget 1987.

    LAB moved up a bit in the campaign and then CON won big!

    But we had Maggie then!

    Con even had a wobble in 1983... But like you say The Blessed St. Margaret was leading then.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,697
    edited November 2019
    The trend has been the same since around the time of the Labour manifesto launch, it's just it's become more apparent over time. For a while it was masked by the artificial boost the Conservatives got from Farage standing down candidates in over half of the GB seats. The Conservative manifesto response doesn't look so safety first now. They are still trying to fight the last war in the form of the 2017 election. Having too few policies that appeal to voters isn't much better than having a big badly presented one that puts them off.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Don't forget 1987.

    LAB moved up a bit in the campaign and then CON won big!

    But we had Maggie then!

    Con even had a wobble in 1983... But like you say The Blessed St. Margaret was leading then.
    Yes I remember, one paper had a full front page saying 'What a shock' and the figure 7% which was a bad poll for CON!

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,306

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1199788502176518144

    The narrative Labour wanted is building

    Labour WANT to be seen as dishonest antisemites?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?

    No, just a feeling. 2017 felt bad as a Tory. The campaign was completely shit, the PM was useless and we were running scared of Jez. 2015 felt ok, it wasn't perfect but Dave was a good campaigner and we managed to convince middle England that the Tories were a safe bet. I think we're much closer to that path than we are to 2017.

    I still think we're heading for a majority of about 60-70 seats. Labour have unleashed literally everything they have and it's got them to 7 points behind. The last policy is probably student fees, but they would have put that in the manifesto if it was significant.
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    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1199788502176518144

    The narrative Labour wanted is building

    Labour WANT to be seen as dishonest antisemites?
    No, Labour want the NHS to be discussed - and that's exactly what has happened.

    Does nobody see this has quite clearly pushed anti-Semitism off the agenda
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314
    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1199788502176518144

    The narrative Labour wanted is building

    Labour WANT to be seen as dishonest antisemites?
    They want discussion of the NHS.
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    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1199802614310936576

    I get it's massive Tory lead - but 56% of voters think the Tories won't do it?
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Don't forget 1987.

    LAB moved up a bit in the campaign and then CON won big!

    But we had Maggie then!

    Con even had a wobble in 1983... But like you say The Blessed St. Margaret was leading then.
    It was all so different back then. Polling via either face-to-face or landline actually worked.

    Now it's virtually impossible to get a sample of voters, so HUGE weighting has to be applied by pollsters.

    If 4 or 5 million people registered to vote in the last few weeks you'd think they're likely to vote. A lot of them are youngsters, none of whom have landlines.

    I think polling is really, really, dodgy these days. Yes, even MRP.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,968
    edited November 2019

    The Conservatives seem to be suffering from the fact that a lot of voters don’t want either main party to have a mandate.

    It’s not as though either deserves one.

    It's not even that complex, it's simply the Labour vote going back home again.

    Now, when do we think the referendums are going to be next year? EU in about April and Scotland in September?
    I would respectfully suggest many on here need to calm down

    It is impossible to have an EU referendum by april in view of legislation that would be torturous, involve passing legislation and then the electoral commission recommending the wording. Then 22 weeks are required for a campaign and of course if Corbyn is involved he has to get a new treaty agreed with the 27 first before he can put anything to the HOC. So a referendum is unlikely before august.

    A Scots referendum will not happen next year
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    148grss said:

    Alistair said:

    148grss said:

    Swinson's seat is uncomfortably close.
    https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/East-Dunbartonshire/
    Can imagine some SLab voting SNP to knife LDs? Who do they hate more?

    Swinson is entirely reliant on SCon tactical voters, but she has bent over backwards to piss off exactly those people.
    Bearsden Tories are not voting for Brexit.
    All it takes is some SLab going SNP and some SCons not voting LD and the LDs have another leadership contest to run...
    Exactly. Then factor in differential turnout.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,201
    I still actually think Con Maj tbf but hopefully will be cashing out on a close poll
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,298

    I do enjoy the panic from PB right before major polling.

    I'm running out of oatcakes (home made).
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    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1199802614310936576

    I get it's massive Tory lead - but 56% of voters think the Tories won't do it?

    Con 44%, Lab 18%, LD 8%? Got excited there - thought that was the MRP! :lol:
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,371

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1199802614310936576

    I get it's massive Tory lead - but 56% of voters think the Tories won't do it?

    Doesn't surprise me at all that half the electorate doesn't really have a clue what's going on with Brexit. I imagine a lot of people just stop listening when they hear the word.
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    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1199788502176518144

    The narrative Labour wanted is building

    Oh dear ! Everyone knows the USA being a huge economy will be able to make more demands .Added to Buckland falling apart earlier against AN we should now see Laura K go to code red under orders from her puppet masters at no 10 .
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    That's normal.
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    Andrew said:

    Perhaps: Con356 Lab211

    Why would Cummings resign?

    He has supposedly serious health problems.
    It's standard he steps down during purdah:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50569827
    It's temporary. (Although when Boris is no longer PM after 12th Dec maybe Dom's departure bcomes permanent!)
    Because... job done?
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    I think the Waspi effect is working through. As always we are guessing the effectiveness of the adjustments the various companies are doing to raw data.

    One thing I've not seen discussed is whether Labour's Waspi proposal would be legal. I "lost" some pension payments on same timescale of notification as the Waspi women (not as much of course) but only women are being compensated. The other point is that it restores a discriminatory situation.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    Yep big big student push. Very smart of Labour. Bypasses the dead tree press too.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?

    No, just a feeling. 2017 felt bad as a Tory. The campaign was completely shit, the PM was useless and we were running scared of Jez. 2015 felt ok, it wasn't perfect but Dave was a good campaigner and we managed to convince middle England that the Tories were a safe bet. I think we're much closer to that path than we are to 2017.

    I still think we're heading for a majority of about 60-70 seats. Labour have unleashed literally everything they have and it's got them to 7 points behind. The last policy is probably student fees, but they would have put that in the manifesto if it was significant.
    The PM is also useless this time, and the combination of free everything and the usual endless bleating about the NHS is really starting to pay off for Labour.

    Two full weeks still to go. Con finish a little over 300. Corbyn in No.10, probably by Christmas but early January at the latest.
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    RobD said:

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    That's normal.
    Yes but what's different is that people really think there's a lot at stake this time.

    And crucially, they think they can change it.

    Not many felt that in 2015, because there wasn't much to vote for, in 2017 people went in feeling the same. This time, I don't feel that.
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    “It’s too close to call and Brexit is in peril if Corbyn wins” is not a bad line for the closing period of the campaign.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,038

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    I think it's mainly a peel off of LDs and certainty firming up.
    I dont get any sense of a labour surge.
    The mood music suggests about a 10 point gap and 40 seat majority with labour losing ground in the north and Midlands but the south essentially unchanged
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204

    RobD said:

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    That's normal.
    Yes but what's different is that people really think there's a lot at stake this time.

    And crucially, they think they can change it.

    Not many felt that in 2015, because there wasn't much to vote for, in 2017 people went in feeling the same. This time, I don't feel that.
    Are you forgetting the fields of youngsters chanting "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn"?
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    Brom said:

    All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?

    2015 Labour had considerably more leads than the Tories over the campaign.
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596426141847711745
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I think the Waspi effect is working through. As always we are guessing the effectiveness of the adjustments the various companies are doing to raw data.

    One thing I've not seen discussed is whether Labour's Waspi proposal would be legal. I "lost" some pension payments on same timescale of notification as the Waspi women (not as much of course) but only women are being compensated. The other point is that it restores a discriminatory situation.

    Irrelevant. If Parliament passes legislation to throw £58bn at these women then they get the £58bn.

    The law is whatever Parliament says it is.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    RobD said:

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    That's normal.
    But what isn't normal (this is empirical as records have been broken) is the number registering to vote. I was chatting to people on campus who said the drive to register has been huge. And as CHB says, a lot of that is aimed at booting out the tories.

    It's the Stormzy effect ;)

    Anyway, these are just opinion polls, none of which seem accurate to me. The mood I feel out there may not be for Corbyn, but I don't think it's for the tories either.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,938

    The Conservatives seem to be suffering from the fact that a lot of voters don’t want either main party to have a mandate.

    It’s not as though either deserves one.

    It's not even that complex, it's simply the Labour vote going back home again.

    Now, when do we think the referendums are going to be next year? EU in about April and Scotland in September?
    I would respectfully suggest many on here need to calm down

    It is impossible to have an EU referendum by april in view of legislation that would be torturous, involve passing legislation and then the electoral commission recommending the wording. Then 22 weeks are required for a campaign and of course if Corbyn is involved he has to get a new treaty agreed with the 27 first before he can put anything to the HOC. So a referendum is unlikely before august.

    A Scots referendum will not happen next year
    Both very true
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    5. Eric Joyce, who threw the punch that caused his arrest that caused his resignation from Labour that caused Unite to push Karie Murphy on Falkirk and thus caused the debate on union influence over Labour to reignite which caused Miliband to change the leader election system to remove unions in order to try and shut that debate down (not that it did.) Truly an example of a butterfly effect.

    This is wonderful. Can we get any further up the chain? Is there a spilled pint that caused the argument that caused the punch that caused the... ?
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    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    That's normal.
    Yes but what's different is that people really think there's a lot at stake this time.

    And crucially, they think they can change it.

    Not many felt that in 2015, because there wasn't much to vote for, in 2017 people went in feeling the same. This time, I don't feel that.
    Are you forgetting the fields of youngsters chanting "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn"?
    Oh there's more ambivalence towards Corbyn no doubt. But they think Johnson is the much bigger problem
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,109
    edited November 2019

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    Don't worry in 30 years you'll all be voting Tory like most 50'somethings. :D
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,393

    kle4 said:

    211 isn't...that bad?

    No, it's very bad, though perhaps enough for Corbyn to not resign immediately.
    But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway.
    I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not.
    If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
    Policies > Labour > Corbyn

    Why the Tories have absolutely failed so much to make a dent
    Electorate favourably impressed by Corbyn's Neil interview, evidently. :)
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,038
    The pollsters corrections post 2017, have they over or under corrected?? Maybe the MRP will give a steer.......
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    If Tories are down to 40 in any poll this week, they're in big trouble, because we know what Labour's maximum vote is.
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    The pollsters corrections post 2017, have they over or under corrected?? Maybe the MRP will give a steer.......

    Labour 210 or so and Tories 360 is pretty consistent with the polls at moment, that's within MoE of the ComRes poll
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    5. Eric Joyce, who threw the punch that caused his arrest that caused his resignation from Labour that caused Unite to push Karie Murphy on Falkirk and thus caused the debate on union influence over Labour to reignite which caused Miliband to change the leader election system to remove unions in order to try and shut that debate down (not that it did.) Truly an example of a butterfly effect.

    This is wonderful. Can we get any further up the chain? Is there a spilled pint that caused the argument that caused the punch that caused the... ?
    But who bought the pint? And why did Joyce need a beer that evening?
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    If Tories are down to 40 in any poll this week, they're in big trouble, because we know what Labour's maximum vote is.

    34%? :lol:
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,938
    edited November 2019

    RobD said:

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    That's normal.
    But what isn't normal (this is empirical as records have been broken) is the number registering to vote. I was chatting to people on campus who said the drive to register has been huge. And as CHB says, a lot of that is aimed at booting out the tories.

    It's the Stormzy effect ;)

    Anyway, these are just opinion polls, none of which seem accurate to me. The mood I feel out there may not be for Corbyn, but I don't think it's for the tories either.
    Has anyone done an analysis of which university seats are likely to be relevant in this election?
    Canterbury, I get, but I assume many others are safe Labour seats anyway. Is that wrong?
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    Prodicus_2Prodicus_2 Posts: 11
    edited November 2019
    Call me a cock-eyed optimist but a while back I put a few teeny-weeny wagers on a CON MAJ of 100+. Among other things.
    (I did the same - well, not 100 MAJ, obvs – for 2015 although most were saying HP. Made a nice little packet.)
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,371

    Meanwhile ... in conventional polling the gap continues to close:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1199797040135442438?s=20

    Median lead of the last ten now down to 10-11.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,504

    “It’s too close to call and Brexit is in peril if Corbyn wins” is not a bad line for the closing period of the campaign.

    But as I said earlier, the Tory vote is firming up out there....
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    RobD said:

    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    That's normal.
    But what isn't normal (this is empirical as records have been broken) is the number registering to vote. I was chatting to people on campus who said the drive to register has been huge. And as CHB says, a lot of that is aimed at booting out the tories.

    It's the Stormzy effect ;)

    Anyway, these are just opinion polls, none of which seem accurate to me. The mood I feel out there may not be for Corbyn, but I don't think it's for the tories either.
    Has anyone done an analysis of which university seats are likely to be relevant in this election?
    Canterbury, I get, but I assume many others are safe Labour seats anyway. Is that wrong?
    It's not just Labour seats, it's tactical voting.

    Here's an example: me
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    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    Well that is the least surprising statement on this forum for weeks
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    kle4 said:

    211 isn't...that bad?

    No, it's very bad, though perhaps enough for Corbyn to not resign immediately.
    But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway.
    I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not.
    If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
    Policies > Labour > Corbyn

    Why the Tories have absolutely failed so much to make a dent
    Electorate favourably impressed by Corbyn's Neil interview, evidently. :)
    What did you think of the Labour broadcast tonight . I really liked it . I thought the message about caring for each other was really inspiring . I also love the one with the gospel music although that’s just for social media .
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    Ave_it said:

    If Tories are down to 40 in any poll this week, they're in big trouble, because we know what Labour's maximum vote is.

    34%? :lol:
    40%, we know Corbyn can achieve that but even 37-39 would be fine in that scenario
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314

    Call me a cock-eyed optimist but a while back I put a few teeny-weeny wagers on a CON MAJ of 100+. Among other things.
    (I did the same for 2015 although most were saying HP. Made a nice little packet.)

    Well, makes a difference from all us Labour rampers and Tory pessimists.
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    2015: Polls overstated Labour
    2017: Polls understated Labour
    2019: ?
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    We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).

    Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
    Well that is the least surprising statement on this forum for weeks
    Well I didn't feel it quite as much in 2017, believe me.

    There wasn't a sense to kick out the Tories, because nobody believed it was possible at this point
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    The Conservatives seem to be suffering from the fact that a lot of voters don’t want either main party to have a mandate.

    It’s not as though either deserves one.

    It's not even that complex, it's simply the Labour vote going back home again.

    Now, when do we think the referendums are going to be next year? EU in about April and Scotland in September?
    Should be the other way round... then Scottish independence vote is followed by Tory English government withdrawing from the EU.
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    Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019

    “It’s too close to call and Brexit is in peril if Corbyn wins” is not a bad line for the closing period of the campaign.

    But as I said earlier, the Tory vote is firming up out there....
    You reckon? (I’m in a safe Tory seat surrounded by safe Tory seats; Tory leadership elections inspire more active campaigning than a GE round here).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,314

    “It’s too close to call and Brexit is in peril if Corbyn wins” is not a bad line for the closing period of the campaign.

    But as I said earlier, the Tory vote is firming up out there....
    In a seat already held by the Tories?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,038
    edited November 2019
    Star witness Sondland accused of multiple sexual misconduct in the States. He denies
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,371

    kle4 said:

    211 isn't...that bad?

    No, it's very bad, though perhaps enough for Corbyn to not resign immediately.
    But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway.
    I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not.
    If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
    Policies > Labour > Corbyn

    Why the Tories have absolutely failed so much to make a dent
    Electorate favourably impressed by Corbyn's Neil interview, evidently. :)
    I think people here greatly overestimate the attention that the general public gives to any particular event - and the viewing figures for political television programmes!
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Never mind poll movements. I have projected that, by the time the polls close on Dec 12th, this forum will consist of nothing but excitable Labour cheerleading from @CorrectHorseBattery. The growth is exponential, and unstoppable.
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    2015: Polls overstated Labour
    2017: Polls understated Labour
    2019: ?

    Some polls understated Labour.

    Only Survation seems to be have been consistent in GE campaigns
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    If Tories are down to 40 in any poll this week, they're in big trouble, because we know what Labour's maximum vote is.

    You really are ramping all your posts. Maybe a little calm reflection would be sensible

    It is still likely that a conservative majority will happen
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    If Tories are down to 40 in any poll this week, they're in big trouble, because we know what Labour's maximum vote is.


    It is still likely that a conservative majority will happen
    It is?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,938
    If the Tories do throw this election away the near total absence of meaningful policies will be a big cause.
This discussion has been closed.