Sunil, I'm telling you, I got a bad feeling about this drop.
Hey, Ishmael, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic Ed Balls breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, leaflets with bar charts, posters...
The Conservatives seem to be suffering from the fact that a lot of voters don’t want either main party to have a mandate. It’s not as though either deserves one.
As some wise words that people ignored because they did not like hearing it put it, Nothing Has Changed.
All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
Going to be a hung parliament isn't it...all those Northern Labour voters are going to come back to Labour in the end and we will be back where we started 2 months ago.
When the election was called I would have thought, like all the other special advisers in accordance with their contracts and the SpAd code.
Yes you are correct about the contracts. From the Guardian;
Responding to a query about whether or not the publication of the post constituted a breach of the general election purdah rules imposed on special advisers, a Cabinet Office source confirmed Cummings had “resigned following the dissolution of parliament ... along with the majority of special advisers”, on 6 November
All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
Tales from Hampstead & Kilburn:- Still no reply from Labour to my abortion query. Tsk. The Tories replied on the WASPI issue within 24 hours. And then, the cheeky so and so's, their local candidate sent me an email about how wonderful he was. He is quite young and rather fit and handsome (and has quite an unusual CV - the arts / rowing etc as well as government). Interestingly he also emphasised how pro-Remain he was. But I. Must. Not. Be. Shallow. The Lib Dems continue to bombard me with literature. And one of their canvassers came round the other day. Plus there was a very nice handsome young man from Greenpeace who came round. We had a long and interesting chat about green issues, he turned out to be half-Italian (with a Papa from Naples) so the chat became even more interesting. One bit of paper from Labour was handed to me by a leaflet stuffer and I told him in no uncertain terms my views on the WASPI issue. So if that was you, @kinabalu, I hope you have relayed my cogent opinion back to Tulip! Oh - and 2 bits of literature from Nigel Farage's BXP. Bizarre. In Hampstead of all places. Still, all good for lighting the fire in these damp and dank times. My postal vote has arrived. But I shall wait until the day itself and then hand it in at the polling station. I assume I can do this. Just in case there is some critical revelation ....... Boris promising to slaughter the first-born, Corbyn asking me to be City Supremo / Chancellor / Minister in Charge of Doing Things Competently, that sort of thing. (Well, we all have our price, don't we?....... )
Yes, lots of people do this nowadays. It doesn’t even have to be your own polling station, though it is quicker if it is.
All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
2015 Labour had considerably more leads than the Tories over the campaign.
Sunil, I'm telling you, I got a bad feeling about this drop.
Hey, Ishmael, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic Ed Balls breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, leaflets with bar charts, posters...
When we get back without you, I'll call your folks.
All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
In 2017 I fully bought into the Tory landslide view. It was reinforced by the strongest canvassing I'd ever witnessed in Dorset. My friends in the North, and reports from the Midlands, suggested otherwise.
This time, things seem flatter around here, but markedly better elsewhere. Part of me wonders if the Tory polling leads are driven by large swings in Leavy marginal areas where there is a large Labour vote to squeeze, rather than by piling up votes in safe Dorset seats.
Anecdotally, my canvassing totally reinforces what is happening to the Libs. The only thing less popular than the revoke policy is the choice of leader....
All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
The only way that I can compare it with 2017 is that then, and now, going into both campaigns a proportion of labour voters were unsure as to whether they were going to vote for labour again. The tribalism in the labour vote and the fact that it's boris on the other side has made a good chunk of them be more prepared to vote labour this time.
Just watched Barry Gardiner being interviewed by Andrew Neil and he was so surprisingly good that I looked him up on Wiki and unlike most of the Labour hopefuls he's well educated and with an interesting back story. Don't be fooled by the shop window there do seem to be some talented people in there.
It does beg the question though...
How the hell did they end up with jeremy?
I blame, in roughly descending order of guilt: 1. Ed Miliband, for changing the system (as well as losing in 2015 in the first place and for pursuing timid policies in opposition which caused Labour members and MPs to collectively tear their hair out in frustration at the continued absence of any red meat.) 2. Margaret Beckett, for knowingly getting Corbyn over the nominations line. 3. Harriet Harman who used her 15 minutes of fame as caretaker leader to try and promote a radical watering down of Labour's policy on social security. 4. Andy Burnham, for not resigning from the Shadow Cabinet in response to Harman's actions and losing Unite's backing as a consequence. 5. Eric Joyce, who threw the punch that caused his arrest that caused his resignation from Labour that caused Unite to push Karie Murphy on Falkirk and thus caused the debate on union influence over Labour to reignite which caused Miliband to change the leader election system to remove unions in order to try and shut that debate down (not that it did.) Truly an example of a butterfly effect.
It’s the wheel that makes the thing that turns that makes the thingummybob go round...
There’s a point at which attacks on Corbyn start to become counter productive.
As for the AS problems , to be blunt when the Tories have their own problems they can’t moralize and the public think both parties have issues.
The media are obsessed with AS and are living in a bubble . Today’s questions at the NHS press conference droning on about apology gate were yet more cremation of the AS saga which has been priced in .
It’s very hard for the Tories when their leader has written loads of incendiary articles . One can only imagine the furore if Corbyn had done similar .
Going to be a hung parliament isn't it...all those Northern Labour voters are going to come back to Labour in the end and we will be back where we started 2 months ago.
Not so. If we end up with the same parliamentary arithmetic as 2 months ago we will be remaining. If Boris had pushed ahead 2 months ago we would have left. Leave its own worst enemy and the Tories unable to resist the siren song of the polls being very useful.
The trend has been the same since around the time of the Labour manifesto launch, it's just it's become more apparent over time. For a while it was masked by the artificial boost the Conservatives got from Farage standing down candidates in over half of the GB seats. The Conservative manifesto response doesn't look so safety first now. They are still trying to fight the last war in the form of the 2017 election. Having too few policies that appeal to voters isn't much better than having a big badly presented one that puts them off.
All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
No, just a feeling. 2017 felt bad as a Tory. The campaign was completely shit, the PM was useless and we were running scared of Jez. 2015 felt ok, it wasn't perfect but Dave was a good campaigner and we managed to convince middle England that the Tories were a safe bet. I think we're much closer to that path than we are to 2017.
I still think we're heading for a majority of about 60-70 seats. Labour have unleashed literally everything they have and it's got them to 7 points behind. The last policy is probably student fees, but they would have put that in the manifesto if it was significant.
LAB moved up a bit in the campaign and then CON won big!
But we had Maggie then!
Con even had a wobble in 1983... But like you say The Blessed St. Margaret was leading then.
It was all so different back then. Polling via either face-to-face or landline actually worked.
Now it's virtually impossible to get a sample of voters, so HUGE weighting has to be applied by pollsters.
If 4 or 5 million people registered to vote in the last few weeks you'd think they're likely to vote. A lot of them are youngsters, none of whom have landlines.
I think polling is really, really, dodgy these days. Yes, even MRP.
The Conservatives seem to be suffering from the fact that a lot of voters don’t want either main party to have a mandate.
It’s not as though either deserves one.
It's not even that complex, it's simply the Labour vote going back home again.
Now, when do we think the referendums are going to be next year? EU in about April and Scotland in September?
I would respectfully suggest many on here need to calm down
It is impossible to have an EU referendum by april in view of legislation that would be torturous, involve passing legislation and then the electoral commission recommending the wording. Then 22 weeks are required for a campaign and of course if Corbyn is involved he has to get a new treaty agreed with the 27 first before he can put anything to the HOC. So a referendum is unlikely before august.
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
I get it's massive Tory lead - but 56% of voters think the Tories won't do it?
Doesn't surprise me at all that half the electorate doesn't really have a clue what's going on with Brexit. I imagine a lot of people just stop listening when they hear the word.
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
Oh dear ! Everyone knows the USA being a huge economy will be able to make more demands .Added to Buckland falling apart earlier against AN we should now see Laura K go to code red under orders from her puppet masters at no 10 .
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
I think the Waspi effect is working through. As always we are guessing the effectiveness of the adjustments the various companies are doing to raw data.
One thing I've not seen discussed is whether Labour's Waspi proposal would be legal. I "lost" some pension payments on same timescale of notification as the Waspi women (not as much of course) but only women are being compensated. The other point is that it restores a discriminatory situation.
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
Yep big big student push. Very smart of Labour. Bypasses the dead tree press too.
All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
No, just a feeling. 2017 felt bad as a Tory. The campaign was completely shit, the PM was useless and we were running scared of Jez. 2015 felt ok, it wasn't perfect but Dave was a good campaigner and we managed to convince middle England that the Tories were a safe bet. I think we're much closer to that path than we are to 2017.
I still think we're heading for a majority of about 60-70 seats. Labour have unleashed literally everything they have and it's got them to 7 points behind. The last policy is probably student fees, but they would have put that in the manifesto if it was significant.
The PM is also useless this time, and the combination of free everything and the usual endless bleating about the NHS is really starting to pay off for Labour.
Two full weeks still to go. Con finish a little over 300. Corbyn in No.10, probably by Christmas but early January at the latest.
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
That's normal.
Yes but what's different is that people really think there's a lot at stake this time.
And crucially, they think they can change it.
Not many felt that in 2015, because there wasn't much to vote for, in 2017 people went in feeling the same. This time, I don't feel that.
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
I think it's mainly a peel off of LDs and certainty firming up. I dont get any sense of a labour surge. The mood music suggests about a 10 point gap and 40 seat majority with labour losing ground in the north and Midlands but the south essentially unchanged
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
That's normal.
Yes but what's different is that people really think there's a lot at stake this time.
And crucially, they think they can change it.
Not many felt that in 2015, because there wasn't much to vote for, in 2017 people went in feeling the same. This time, I don't feel that.
Are you forgetting the fields of youngsters chanting "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn"?
All those saying it's not 2017 again, Labour has already gained in this election. Did anything like that happen before 2017? 2015 weren't the polls equal the whole way through?
2015 Labour had considerably more leads than the Tories over the campaign.
I think the Waspi effect is working through. As always we are guessing the effectiveness of the adjustments the various companies are doing to raw data.
One thing I've not seen discussed is whether Labour's Waspi proposal would be legal. I "lost" some pension payments on same timescale of notification as the Waspi women (not as much of course) but only women are being compensated. The other point is that it restores a discriminatory situation.
Irrelevant. If Parliament passes legislation to throw £58bn at these women then they get the £58bn.
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
That's normal.
But what isn't normal (this is empirical as records have been broken) is the number registering to vote. I was chatting to people on campus who said the drive to register has been huge. And as CHB says, a lot of that is aimed at booting out the tories.
It's the Stormzy effect
Anyway, these are just opinion polls, none of which seem accurate to me. The mood I feel out there may not be for Corbyn, but I don't think it's for the tories either.
The Conservatives seem to be suffering from the fact that a lot of voters don’t want either main party to have a mandate.
It’s not as though either deserves one.
It's not even that complex, it's simply the Labour vote going back home again.
Now, when do we think the referendums are going to be next year? EU in about April and Scotland in September?
I would respectfully suggest many on here need to calm down
It is impossible to have an EU referendum by april in view of legislation that would be torturous, involve passing legislation and then the electoral commission recommending the wording. Then 22 weeks are required for a campaign and of course if Corbyn is involved he has to get a new treaty agreed with the 27 first before he can put anything to the HOC. So a referendum is unlikely before august.
5. Eric Joyce, who threw the punch that caused his arrest that caused his resignation from Labour that caused Unite to push Karie Murphy on Falkirk and thus caused the debate on union influence over Labour to reignite which caused Miliband to change the leader election system to remove unions in order to try and shut that debate down (not that it did.) Truly an example of a butterfly effect.
This is wonderful. Can we get any further up the chain? Is there a spilled pint that caused the argument that caused the punch that caused the... ?
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
That's normal.
Yes but what's different is that people really think there's a lot at stake this time.
And crucially, they think they can change it.
Not many felt that in 2015, because there wasn't much to vote for, in 2017 people went in feeling the same. This time, I don't feel that.
Are you forgetting the fields of youngsters chanting "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn"?
Oh there's more ambivalence towards Corbyn no doubt. But they think Johnson is the much bigger problem
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
Don't worry in 30 years you'll all be voting Tory like most 50'somethings.
No, it's very bad, though perhaps enough for Corbyn to not resign immediately. But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway. I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not. If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
Policies > Labour > Corbyn
Why the Tories have absolutely failed so much to make a dent
Electorate favourably impressed by Corbyn's Neil interview, evidently.
5. Eric Joyce, who threw the punch that caused his arrest that caused his resignation from Labour that caused Unite to push Karie Murphy on Falkirk and thus caused the debate on union influence over Labour to reignite which caused Miliband to change the leader election system to remove unions in order to try and shut that debate down (not that it did.) Truly an example of a butterfly effect.
This is wonderful. Can we get any further up the chain? Is there a spilled pint that caused the argument that caused the punch that caused the... ?
But who bought the pint? And why did Joyce need a beer that evening?
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
That's normal.
But what isn't normal (this is empirical as records have been broken) is the number registering to vote. I was chatting to people on campus who said the drive to register has been huge. And as CHB says, a lot of that is aimed at booting out the tories.
It's the Stormzy effect
Anyway, these are just opinion polls, none of which seem accurate to me. The mood I feel out there may not be for Corbyn, but I don't think it's for the tories either.
Has anyone done an analysis of which university seats are likely to be relevant in this election? Canterbury, I get, but I assume many others are safe Labour seats anyway. Is that wrong?
Call me a cock-eyed optimist but a while back I put a few teeny-weeny wagers on a CON MAJ of 100+. Among other things. (I did the same - well, not 100 MAJ, obvs – for 2015 although most were saying HP. Made a nice little packet.)
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
That's normal.
But what isn't normal (this is empirical as records have been broken) is the number registering to vote. I was chatting to people on campus who said the drive to register has been huge. And as CHB says, a lot of that is aimed at booting out the tories.
It's the Stormzy effect
Anyway, these are just opinion polls, none of which seem accurate to me. The mood I feel out there may not be for Corbyn, but I don't think it's for the tories either.
Has anyone done an analysis of which university seats are likely to be relevant in this election? Canterbury, I get, but I assume many others are safe Labour seats anyway. Is that wrong?
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
Well that is the least surprising statement on this forum for weeks
No, it's very bad, though perhaps enough for Corbyn to not resign immediately. But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway. I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not. If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
Policies > Labour > Corbyn
Why the Tories have absolutely failed so much to make a dent
Electorate favourably impressed by Corbyn's Neil interview, evidently.
What did you think of the Labour broadcast tonight . I really liked it . I thought the message about caring for each other was really inspiring . I also love the one with the gospel music although that’s just for social media .
Call me a cock-eyed optimist but a while back I put a few teeny-weeny wagers on a CON MAJ of 100+. Among other things. (I did the same for 2015 although most were saying HP. Made a nice little packet.)
Well, makes a difference from all us Labour rampers and Tory pessimists.
We’re into that stage of an election campaign when there are jitters. They could be well founded like in 2017 or we could have a 2015 result on our hands. I find it very difficult to predict where things are. I don’t sense the same enthusiastic surge for Labour but it does look like their vote is picking up (I think it was the WASPIs wot done it).
Amongst my age group (20 somethings), I feel a lot of sense to kick the Tories out
Well that is the least surprising statement on this forum for weeks
Well I didn't feel it quite as much in 2017, believe me.
There wasn't a sense to kick out the Tories, because nobody believed it was possible at this point
No, it's very bad, though perhaps enough for Corbyn to not resign immediately. But fancy guesswork is only right by chance anyway. I'm wondering at what point people will stop believing it is not 2017 all over again, seemingly on the basis that it is not because it can not. If Labour had stopped climbing I'd have stopped believing it was 2017 all over again, but they're creeping into the mid 30s, and no different to last time Corbyn does something which gets a horrible reaction, but Labour voters don't care.
Policies > Labour > Corbyn
Why the Tories have absolutely failed so much to make a dent
Electorate favourably impressed by Corbyn's Neil interview, evidently.
I think people here greatly overestimate the attention that the general public gives to any particular event - and the viewing figures for political television programmes!
Never mind poll movements. I have projected that, by the time the polls close on Dec 12th, this forum will consist of nothing but excitable Labour cheerleading from @CorrectHorseBattery. The growth is exponential, and unstoppable.
Comments
If I had a lot of money riding on a tory majority and I was unscrupulous I'd seed a false rumour and cash out my losses.
So, is that consistent with Tories 350?
Until the final result!!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50569827
It's temporary. (Although when Boris is no longer PM after 12th Dec maybe Dom's departure bcomes permanent!)
Now, when do we think the referendums are going to be next year? EU in about April and Scotland in September?
This time, things seem flatter around here, but markedly better elsewhere. Part of me wonders if the Tory polling leads are driven by large swings in Leavy marginal areas where there is a large Labour vote to squeeze, rather than by piling up votes in safe Dorset seats.
Anecdotally, my canvassing totally reinforces what is happening to the Libs. The only thing less popular than the revoke policy is the choice of leader....
Almost perfectly tallies with the poll gap
Happy with this weeks polls.
Mr Urqhart buying new suitcases.
LAB moved up a bit in the campaign and then CON won big!
But we had Maggie then!
As for the AS problems , to be blunt when the Tories have their own problems they can’t moralize and the public think both parties have issues.
The media are obsessed with AS and are living in a bubble . Today’s questions at the NHS press conference droning on about apology gate were yet more cremation of the AS saga which has been priced in .
It’s very hard for the Tories when their leader has written loads of incendiary articles . One can only imagine the furore if Corbyn had done similar .
The narrative Labour wanted is building
I still think we're heading for a majority of about 60-70 seats. Labour have unleashed literally everything they have and it's got them to 7 points behind. The last policy is probably student fees, but they would have put that in the manifesto if it was significant.
Does nobody see this has quite clearly pushed anti-Semitism off the agenda
I get it's massive Tory lead - but 56% of voters think the Tories won't do it?
Now it's virtually impossible to get a sample of voters, so HUGE weighting has to be applied by pollsters.
If 4 or 5 million people registered to vote in the last few weeks you'd think they're likely to vote. A lot of them are youngsters, none of whom have landlines.
I think polling is really, really, dodgy these days. Yes, even MRP.
It is impossible to have an EU referendum by april in view of legislation that would be torturous, involve passing legislation and then the electoral commission recommending the wording. Then 22 weeks are required for a campaign and of course if Corbyn is involved he has to get a new treaty agreed with the 27 first before he can put anything to the HOC. So a referendum is unlikely before august.
A Scots referendum will not happen next year
One thing I've not seen discussed is whether Labour's Waspi proposal would be legal. I "lost" some pension payments on same timescale of notification as the Waspi women (not as much of course) but only women are being compensated. The other point is that it restores a discriminatory situation.
Two full weeks still to go. Con finish a little over 300. Corbyn in No.10, probably by Christmas but early January at the latest.
And crucially, they think they can change it.
Not many felt that in 2015, because there wasn't much to vote for, in 2017 people went in feeling the same. This time, I don't feel that.
I dont get any sense of a labour surge.
The mood music suggests about a 10 point gap and 40 seat majority with labour losing ground in the north and Midlands but the south essentially unchanged
The law is whatever Parliament says it is.
It's the Stormzy effect
Anyway, these are just opinion polls, none of which seem accurate to me. The mood I feel out there may not be for Corbyn, but I don't think it's for the tories either.
Canterbury, I get, but I assume many others are safe Labour seats anyway. Is that wrong?
(I did the same - well, not 100 MAJ, obvs – for 2015 although most were saying HP. Made a nice little packet.)
Here's an example: me
2017: Polls understated Labour
2019: ?
There wasn't a sense to kick out the Tories, because nobody believed it was possible at this point
Only Survation seems to be have been consistent in GE campaigns
It is still likely that a conservative majority will happen